Дисертації з теми "Integrated Dynamic Decision Analysis"
Щоб переглянути інші типи публікацій з цієї теми, перейдіть за посиланням: Integrated Dynamic Decision Analysis.
Оформте джерело за APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard та іншими стилями
Ознайомтеся з топ-50 дисертацій для дослідження на тему "Integrated Dynamic Decision Analysis".
Біля кожної праці в переліку літератури доступна кнопка «Додати до бібліографії». Скористайтеся нею – і ми автоматично оформимо бібліографічне посилання на обрану працю в потрібному вам стилі цитування: APA, MLA, «Гарвард», «Чикаго», «Ванкувер» тощо.
Також ви можете завантажити повний текст наукової публікації у форматі «.pdf» та прочитати онлайн анотацію до роботи, якщо відповідні параметри наявні в метаданих.
Переглядайте дисертації для різних дисциплін та оформлюйте правильно вашу бібліографію.
1
Sen, Debayan. "A bi-level system dynamics modeling framework to evaluate costs and benefits of implementing Controller Pilot Data Link Communications and Decision Support Tools in a non-integrated and integrated scenario." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/41886.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
A modeling framework to evaluate the costs and benefits of implementation of Con-troller
Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC), and Air Traffic Management (ATM)
decision support tools is proposed in this paper. The benefit/cost evaluation is carried
out for four key alternatives namely alternative A: Do nothing scenario (only voice
channel), alternative B: Voice channel supplemented with CPDLC, alternative C:
Alternative B with ATM tools in a non-integrated scenario and finally alternative D:
Alternative B with ATM tools in an integrated scenario. It is a bi-level model that cap-tures
the linkages between various technologies at a lower microscopic level using a
daily microscopic model (DATSIM) and transfers the measures of effectives to a
higher macroscopic level. DATSIM stands for Data Link and Air Traffic Technologies
SIMulation and it simulates air traffic in the enroute sector and terminal airspace for a
single day and captures the measures of effectiveness at a microscopic level and feeds
its output to the macroscopic annual model which then runs over the entire life cycle of
the system. Airspace dwell time benefit data from the microscopic model is regressed
into three dimensional benefit surfaces as a function of the equipage level of aircraft
and aircraft density and embedded into the macroscopic model. The main function of
the annual model is to ascertain economic viability of any deployment schedule or
alternative over the entire life cycle of the system. The life cycle cost model is com-posed
of four modules namely: Operational benefits module, Safety benefit module,Technology cost module and Training cost module.
Analysis using the model showed that an enroute sector gets congested at aircraft den-sities
greater 630 per day. This is mainly because the controller workload gets satu-rated
at that traffic volume per day. Benefits realized in alternatives B, C and D as
compared to alternative A increased exponentially at traffic densities greater than 630
i.e. when controller workload for alternative A becomes saturated.Master of Science
2
Roach, Jesse. "Integrated Surface Water Groundwater Modeling in the Upper Rio Grande in Support of Scenario Analysis." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/194466.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
New and growing demands to finite and fully allocated water resources in the semi-arid southwestern United States mean that existing water resources must be managed with increasing efficiency to minimize shortages and associated social conflict. Computer based simulations can provide a powerful tool to aid in policy related decisions. This dissertation describes the development of a simulation model of the Rio Grande surface water and groundwater system for use in scenario evaluation. The primary model goal is to integrate cross disciplinary science at a basin scale, and make it easily accessible to a wide range of stakeholders. To achieve this at a river basin scale, three existing groundwater models and one surface water model were simplified and combined in a system dynamics framework using the commercial software package Powersim Studio 2005. To this physical model, a simple human behavioral model and user interface was added. The resulting scenario evaluation tool runs 40 year simulations on a laptop computer in tens of seconds, with inputs that are easily changed by non-expert users via a graphic, user friendly interface.
3
Leong, Tze-Yun. "An integrated approach to dynamic decision making under uncertainty." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/36496.
Повний текст джерела
4
Menicou, Michalis. "Modelling the decision architecture of manufacturing systems : the decision analysis - GRAI integrated technique." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.251225.
Повний текст джерела
5
Suhendra. "Integrated improvement of distillation unit using multicriteria decision making analysis." [S.l.] : [s.n.], 2007. http://se6.kobv.de:8000/btu/volltexte/2007/170.
Повний текст джерела
6
Samakovitis, Georgios. "Technology investment decision making : an integrated analysis in UK Internet banking." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/25148.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The research addresses the problem of technological investment decision making (TIDM) in UK Banks. It focuses on Internet banking technologies and uses interviews with bank executives and industry practitioners to form a coherent understanding of how technological decisions are practically made and what, in that process, is the role of evaluation techniques. Aims are (1) to identify and explain the discord between formal and practical evaluations of technologies, (2) to review the role of expert professional groups in defining the norms of evaluation, and (3) to develop a model to reflect the reality of TIDM in UK banking. The ultimate aim is to contribute to reducing the ambiguity that notoriously characterises the evaluation of new technology. According to the theoretical framework the TIDM problem is socially constructed by expert groups (actors) who either participate in decision-making or assume roles in developing methodologies for facilitating it. Its ultimate shape is the outcome of negotiations between these viewpoints, in light of expert power positions and political advocacy. Three classes of such “actors” are identified: (1) Practitioners, namely experts in Financial Institutions, (2) Observers, academic researchers, consultants and government bodies, and (3) the Community of Received Wisdom, comprising the commonly understood views on what TIDM is and how it should be made. A novel methodological approach, Informed Grounded Theory (IGT), proposes that viewpoints are by default informed by individuals’ academic and professional training; thus, past theory should not be considered as a contaminating factor for the data and their interpretation, but as integral part of it. Key findings concern (1) the unconventional usage of financial and other formal methodologies in TIDM practice, (2) the highly political role of dominant expert groups and the resulting dynamics of their development, (3) the influence of the wider economic cycles on how technological value is perceived and (4) the changing role of the Finance function in technological investment justification. The core conclusion is that TIDM in UK banks is an act of justification and advocacy, far more than it is an assessment process; valuation techniques play an ancillary role in ascertaining views often founded on purely strategic or political grounds.
7
Alafifi, Ayman H. "Integrated Systems Modeling to Improve Watershed Habitat Management and Decision Making." DigitalCommons@USU, 2018. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/6970.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Regulated rivers provide opportunities to improve habitat quality by managing the times, locations, and magnitudes of reservoir releases and diversions across the watershed. To identify these opportunities, managers select priority species and determine when, where, and how to allocate water between competing human and environmental users in the basin. Systems models have been used to recommend allocation of water between species. However, many models consider species’ water needs as constraints on instream flow that is managed to maximize human beneficial uses. Many models also incorporate uncertainty in the system and report an overwhelmingly large number of management alternatives. This dissertation presents three new novel models to recommend the allocation of water and money to improve habitat quality. The new models also facilitate communicating model results to managers and to the public. First, a new measurable and observable habitat metric quantifies habitat area and quality for priority aquatic, floodplain, and wetland habitat species. The metric is embedded in a systems model as an ecological objective to maximize. The systems model helps managers to identify times and locations at which to apply scarce water to most improve habitat area and quality for multiple competing species. Second, a cluster analysis approach is introduced to reduce large dimensional uncertainty problems in habitat models and focus management efforts on the important parameters to measure and monitor more carefully. The approach includes manager preferences in the search for clusters. It identifies a few, easy-to-interpret management options from a large multivariate space of possible alternatives. Third, an open-access web tool helps water resources modelers display model outputs on an interactive web map. The tool allows modelers to construct node-link networks on a web map and facilitates sharing and visualizing spatial and temporal model outputs. The dissertation applies all three studies to the Lower Bear River, Utah, to guide ongoing habitat conservation efforts, recommend water allocation strategies, and provide important insights on ways to improve overall habitat quality and area.
8
Ferzli, Khalil Y. Carleton University Dissertation Engineering Civil and Environmental. "A Comprehensive integrated modelling framework for the optimization of transit operator workforce planning and management." Ottawa, 1992.
Знайти повний текст джерела
9
Adnane, Alaoui M'Hamdi. "Modelling and analysis of consumer's multi-decision process : a new integrated stochastic modelling framework." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/9415.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Interest in understanding Human Beings’ behaviour can be traced back to the early days of mankind. However, interest in consumer behaviour is relatively recent. In fact, it is only since the end of World War II and following economic prosperity of some nations (e.g., U.S.A.) that the world witnessed the rise of a new discipline in the early 1950s; namely, Marketing Research. By the end of the 1950s, academic papers on modelling and analysis of consumer behaviour started to appear (Ehrenberg, 1959; Frank, 1962). The purpose of this research is to propose an integrated decision framework for modelling consumer behaviour with respect to store incidence, category incidence, brand incidence, and size incidence. To the best of our knowledge, no published contribution integrates these decisions within the same modelling framework. In addition, the thesis proposes a new estimation method as well as a new segmentation method. These contributions aim at improving our understanding of consumer behaviour before and during consumers’ visits to the retail points of a distribution network, improving consumer behaviour prediction accuracy, and assisting with inventory management across distribution networks. The proposed modelling framework is hybrid in nature in that it uses both non-explanatory and explanatory models. To be more specific, it uses stochastic models; namely, probability distributions, to capture the intrinsic nature of consumers (i.e., inner or built-in behavioural features) as well as any unexplained similarities or differences (i.e., unobserved heterogeneity) in their intrinsic behaviour. In addition, the parameters of these probability distribution models could be estimated using explanatory models; namely, multiple regression models, such as logistic regression. Furthermore, the thesis proposes a piece-wise estimation procedure for estimating the parameters of the developed stochastic models. Also proposed is a three-step segmentation method based on the information provided by the quality of fit of stochastic models to consumer data so as to identify which model better predicts which market segments. In the empirical investigation, the proposed framework was used to study consumer behaviour with respect to individual alternatives of each decision, individual decisions, and all decisions. In addition, the proposed segmentation method was used to segment the panellists into infrequent users, light to medium users, and heavy users, on one hand, and split loyals, loyals, and hardcore loyals, on the other hand. Furthermore, the empirical evidence suggests that the proposed piece-wise estimation procedure outperforms the standard approach for all models and decision levels. Also, the empirical results revealed that the homogeneous MNL outperforms both the heterogeneous NMNL and DMNL when each one of these distributions is applied to all decisions, which suggests the relative homogeneity in consumer decision making at the aggregate or integrated decision level. Last, but not least, through the use of the proposed framework, the thesis sheds light on the importance of consumer choice sequence on the quality of predictions, which affects the quality of segmentation. The reader is referred to chapter 3 for details on these contributions.
10
Loddo, Antonello. "Bayesian analysis of multivariate stochastic volatility and dynamic models." Diss., Columbia, Mo. : University of Missouri-Columbia, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10355/4359.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2006.The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file viewed on (April 26, 2007) Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
11
Kadhim, Ammar. "Natural frequency and transient dynamic analysis of vehicle integrated RBS 70 NG system." Thesis, Karlstads universitet, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-68935.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract This study is a master thesis in mechanical engineering at Karlstad’s University that treats operation disturbances that occur during the use of a vehicle integrated air-defense system called Robot-system 70 New Generation (RBS 70 NG) in cooperation with SAAB Dynamics AB. RBS 70 NG is a man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS) which is designed for anti-aircraft warfare and can be used in all climate zones. The system usually operates on a hard surface such as gravel or hard soil, but for this project the aim is to integrate the system to operate on a vehicle platform. There are two disturbing factors that could affect the system during operation; the first is that the system is displaced due to the external forces that act on the system during use. The second disturbance specification is that the natural frequency of the entire system should be within a range of 3.5-6 Hz for vehicles installed RBS 70 NG [1]. The system is studied by using a simple mathematical model and by the use of computer aided software programs including CATIA V5 R22 and ANSYS R18.1. The modified design of the complete system showed that by adding four external legs to the platform, a natural frequency in-between the given interval is reached. A Transient Response Analysis was done to analyze the MANPADS ground version in order to make have some sort of a reference when studying the vehicle version of the RBS 70 NG and to make both system as similar as possible. The displacement of the system sight was similar for both versions of the system, when operating on the ground and on a vehicle.Sammanfattning Den här studien är ett examensarbete inom maskinteknik på Karlstads Universitet, som behandlar driftstörningar för ett fordon integrerat ”Robotsystem 70 New Generation” i samarbete med SAAB Dynamics AB. Robotsystem 70 (RBS 70 NG) är ett luftvärnsrobotsystem som tillverkas i Sverige av SAAB Dynamics AB. Systemet används vanligtvis på hårda underlag som till exempel mark och grus, men i den här rapporten studeras integrationen av systemet på ett fordons plattform. Två störningsspecifikationer uppkommer vid användning av RBS 70 NG som tas hänsyn till, den första är att systemets förskjutning som exciteras via de krafter som uppkommer vid utskjutning inte stör systemet under drift. Den andra störningsspecifikationen är att den naturliga frekvensen för hela systemet bör ligga på ett intervall mellan 3,5–6 Hz för fordon installerat RBS 70 NG [1]. Analyserna har gjorts dels genom en förenklad teoretisk modell av systemet och genom användning av datorbaserade program såsom CATIA V5 R22 och ANSYS R18.1. Konstruktions ändringar på plattformen gjordes för att uppnå den minimala gränsen på egenfrekvensen på ca 3,5 Hz. Montering av fyra externa stödben på plattformen gav godkända värden på egenfrekvensen. En så kallad ”Transient Response Analysis” utfördes med hjälp av ANSYS R18.1 som visade att systemet utan konstruktions ändringar förskjuts med mindre än det minimala tillåtna värdet som tidigare beskrivet och att de pålagda krafterna inte var tillräckligt stora för att störa systemets drift.
12
Flint, Eric Michael. "Electro-dynamic analysis of stack actuators and active members integrated within truss structures." Thesis, This resource online, 1994. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-12042009-020329/.
Повний текст джерела
13
Sahin, Oz. "Dynamic Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability and Adaptation to Sea Level Rise: An Integrated Spatial-Temporal Decision Making Approach." Thesis, Griffith University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/368117.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
As the globe continues to warm, coastal communities across the world will increasingly be faced with rising sea levels, as well as changes in storm surge frequency and magnitude. Significantly, most infrastructure, settlements and facilities are located near the coast. While coastal communities have benefitted from the many advantages of living and working in these areas, inevitably they also face the threat of natural disasters. With concern for the consequences of sea level rise (SLR) and associated storm surge (SS), the primary, and most urgent topics for decision makers are the assessment of vulnerability and the evaluation of adaptation measures. However, due to uncertainty in climate change predictions, many vulnerability and adaptation assessments and most town planning activities, which are based on an the assumption that the sea level will remain stable in the future, are in a state of flux. Added to the dilemma is the realisation that the impacts of SLR will, most likely, be spatially non-uniform across the world. It is therefore essential for decision-makers to consider the dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in assessing the impacts of SLR when making decisions about future infrastructure and community life.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith School of Engineering
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
Full Text
14
Emrouznejad, Ali. "The assessment of dynamic efficiency of decision making units using data envelopment analysis." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2000. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/4366/.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The concept of a "production function" as means to measuring efficiency began in 1928 with the seminal paper by Cobb and Douglas (1928). However, until the 1950s, production functions were largely used as a tool for studying the functional distribution of income between capital and labour. Farrell's argument (1957) provides an intellectual basis for redirecting attention from the production function specifically to the deviation from that function as a measure of efficiency. He developed a method so that we can measure efficiency in terms of distance to the "best DMU" on the frontier isoquant. Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (1978) generalised Farrell's concept to multiple - input multiple - output situations and reformulated it using mathematical programming and thus derived an efficiency measurement known as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Therefore DEA is a linear programming based method for comparing Decision Making Units (DMUs) such as schools, hospitals, etc. In the method originally proposed by Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (1978) the efficiency of a DMU is defined as a ratio of the weighted sum of outputs to the weighted sum of inputs. Thus in the original DEA approach the notion of time dimension has been ignored. This thesis proposes a IDEA based method for assessing the comparative efficiencies of DMUs operating production processes where input - output levels are inter - temporally dependent. One cause of inter - temporal dependence between input and output levels is stock input which influences output levels over many production periods. Such DMUs cannot be assessed by traditional or 'static' DEA. The method developed in the study overcomes the problem of inter - temporal input - output dependence by using input - output 'paths' mapped out by operating DMUs over time as the basis of assessing them. The aim of this thesis is, therefore, firstly, to address that traditional or "static" IDEA fails to capture the efficiency of DMUs with inter - temporal input - output dependence. Secondly the thesis develops an approach for measuring efficiency under inter - temporal input - output dependence by defining an inter - temporal Production Possibility Set (PPS). The method developed uses path of input - output levels associated with DMUs rather than input - output DMUs observed at one point in time as static IDEA does. Using this PPS, an assessment framework is developed which parallels that of static DEA. The thesis develops mathematical programming models which use input - output paths to measure efficiency, identify peers and target of performance of DMUs. The approach is illustrated using simulated and real data.
15
Leisch, Friedrich. "Sweave. Dynamic generation of statistical reports using literate data analysis." SFB Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2002. http://epub.wu.ac.at/1788/1/document.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Sweave combines typesetting with LATEX and data anlysis with S into integrated statistical documents. When run through R or Splus, all data analysis output (tables, graphs, ...) is created on the fly and inserted into a final LATEX document. Options control which parts of the original S code are shown to or hidden from the reader, respectively. Many S users are also LATEX users, hence no new software has to be learned. The report can be automatically updated if data or analysis change, which allows for truly reproducible research. (author's abstract)Series: Report Series SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"
16
Cannon, Stephen J. "Analysis of the relationship between partially dynamic Bayesian network architecture and inference algorithm effectiveness." Fairfax, VA : George Mason University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1920/3181.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (M.S.)--George Mason University, 2007.Vita: p. 192. Thesis director: Kathryn Blackmond Laskey. Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Systems Engineering. Title from PDF t.p. (viewed Aug. 13, 2008). Additional zip folders contain software, thesis defense powerpoint and analysis documents. Includes bibliographical references (p. 190-191). Also issued in print.
17
Friedman, Sheldon. "The Effects of Dynamic Decision Making on Resource Allocation: The Case of Pavement Management." Link to electronic thesis, 2003. http://www.wpi.edu/Pubs/ETD/Available/etd-0502103-112438.
Повний текст джерела
18
Ghaderi, Mohammad. "Preference Disaggregation: Towards an Integrated Framework." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Ramon Llull, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/404257.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
La desagregació de preferències pretén capturar models de preferències mitjançant la descomposició de la informació obtinguda a partir de preferències indirectes que estan en forma d'eleccions holístiques o judicis. Des d'una perspectiva d'ajuda a la presa de decisions multi criteri, aquesta informació es pren com a punt de partida en un procés d'inferència que condueix a model de preferències basat en punts de vista, generalment conflictius, que conjuntament formen una base per a la decisió. L'estudi de les decisions humanes ha rebut una atenció creixent en els últims anys des de diverses disciplines, que inclouen des de les ciències del comportament (anàlisi de decisions, desagregació de preferències), la intel·ligència artificial (aprenentatge de preferències), fins a l'economia i el màrqueting (teoria de l'elecció). Les tres corrents, encara que originades per diferents filosofies, convergeixen ràpidament cap a una comprensió integral de les preferències, que és l'element bàsic per a les decisions i accions humanes. Aquesta tesi doctoral aprofundeix en aquesta àrea de recerca mitjançant la introducció d'un marc analític integrat que permet capturar les preferències d'una forma complexa a partir de l'observació d'opcions holístiques, decisions i judicis.La desagregación de preferencias pretende capturar modelos de preferencias mediante la descomposición de la información obtenida con preferencias indirectas que están en forma de elecciones holísticas o juicios. Desde una perspectiva de ayuda a la toma de decisiones multicriterio, dicha información se toma como punto de partida en un proceso de inferencia que conduce a modelo de preferencias basado en puntos de vista, generalmente conflictivos, que conjuntamente forman una base para la decisión. El estudio de las decisiones humanas ha recibido una atención creciente en los últimos años desde varias disciplinas, que incluyen desde las ciencias del comportamiento (análisis de decisiones, desagregación de preferencias), la inteligencia artificial (aprendizaje de preferencias), hasta la economía y el márqueting (teoría de la elección). Las tres corrientes, aunque originadas por diferentes filosofías, convergen rápidamente hacia una comprensión integral de las preferencias, que es el elemento básico para las decisiones y acciones humanas. Esta tesis doctoral profundiza en esta área de investigación mediante la introducción de un marco analítico integrado que permite capturar las preferencias de una forma compleja a partir de la observación de opciones holísticas, decisiones y juicios.
Preference disaggregation aims at capturing preference models by decomposing indirect preference information that are in form of holistic choices or judgments. From a multiple criteria decision aiding perspective, such information is taken as input to an inference procedure that yields to a preference model based on all the, usually conflicting, points of view that together form a basis for the judgments. Studying human judgments and choices has received increasing attention in the last few years from several disciplines, including behavioral science (decision analysis, preference disaggregation), artificial intelligence (preference learning), and economics and marketing (choice modeling). The three streams, although originated from different philosophies, are converging rapidly to a comprehensive understanding of human preferences, that is the main element of decisions and actions. This doctoral dissertation sheds light on this phenomenon by introducing an integrated analytical framework that allows capturing preferences of a complex form by observing holistic choices, decisions, and judgments.
19
Hui, Lawrence Kwan Yeung. "Integrated microfluidic device for single-cell high throughput screening in dynamic gene expression analysis." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2008. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p1457283.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (M.S.)--University of California, San Diego, 2008.Title from first page of PDF file (viewed November 13, 2008). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Includes bibliographical references (p. 58-60).
20
Kleanthi, Lakiotaki. "An integrated recommender system based on multi-criteria decision analysis and data analysis methods : Methodology, implementation and evaluation." Paris 9, 2010. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=2010PA090053.
Повний текст джерела
21
Donovan, Sarah Jane. "Improving Dynamic Decision Making Through Training and Self-Reflection." UNF Digital Commons, 2012. http://digitalcommons.unf.edu/etd/405.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The modern business environment requires managers to make decisions in a dynamic and uncertain world. In the current study, experimenters investigated the effects of a brief training aimed at improving dynamic decision making (DDM) skills on individual performance in a virtual DDM task. During the training, experimenters explained the DDM process, stressed the importance of self-reflection in DDM, and provided 3 selfreflective questions to guide participants during the task. Additionally, experimenters explored whether participants low or high in self-reflection would perform better in the task and whether participants low or high in self-reflection would benefit more from the training. Participants were 68 graduate business students. They individually managed a computer-simulated chocolate production company called CHOCO FINE and answered surveys to assess self-reflection and demographics. Results showed that students trained in DDM made decisions leading to better management performance in CHOCO FINE compared to untrained students. Self-reflection scores also predicted performance in this virtual business, and participants low in self-reflection benefitted the most from training. Organizations could use DDM training to establish and promote a culture that values selfreflective decision making.
22
Ozcan-Deniz, Gulbin. "An Integrated Multi-Agent Framework for Optimizing Time, Cost and Environmental Impact of Construction Processes." FIU Digital Commons, 2011. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/455.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Environmentally conscious construction has received a significant amount of research attention during the last decades. Even though construction literature is rich in studies that emphasize the importance of environmental impact during the construction phase, most of the previous studies failed to combine environmental analysis with other project performance criteria in construction. This is mainly because most of the studies have overlooked the multi-objective nature of construction projects. In order to achieve environmentally conscious construction, multi-objectives and their relationships need to be successfully analyzed in the complex construction environment. The complex construction system is composed of changing project conditions that have an impact on the relationship between time, cost and environmental impact (TCEI) of construction operations. Yet, this impact is still unknown by construction professionals. Studying this impact is vital to fulfill multiple project objectives and achieve environmentally conscious construction. This research proposes an analytical framework to analyze the impact of changing project conditions on the relationship of TCEI. This study includes green house gas (GHG) emissions as an environmental impact category. The methodology utilizes multi-agent systems, multi-objective optimization, analytical network process, and system dynamics tools to study the relationships of TCEI and support decision-making under the influence of project conditions. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is applied to the evaluation of environmental impact in terms of GHG. The mixed method approach allowed for the collection and analysis of qualitative and quantitative data. Structured interviews of professionals in the highway construction field were conducted to gain their perspectives in decision-making under the influence of certain project conditions, while the quantitative data were collected from the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for highway resurfacing projects. The data collected were used to test the framework. The framework yielded statistically significant results in simulating project conditions and optimizing TCEI. The results showed that the change in project conditions had a significant impact on the TCEI optimal solutions. The correlation between TCEI suggested that they affected each other positively, but in different strengths. The findings of the study will assist contractors to visualize the impact of their decision on the relationship of TCEI.
23
Onkham, Wilawan. "A Real Option Dynamic Decision (RODD) Framework for Operational Innovations." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2013. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/5996.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Changing the business operations and adopting new operational innovations, have become key features for a business solution approach. However, there are challenges for developing innovative operations due to a lack of the proper decision analysis tools, lack of understanding the impacts transition will have on operational models, and the time limits of the innovation life cycle. The cases of business failure in operational innovation (i.e. Eastman Kodak Company and Borders Group Inc.,) support the need for an investment decision framework.
This research aims to develop a Real Option Dynamic Decision (RODD) framework for decision making, to support decision makers for operational innovation investments. This development will help the business/organization to recognize the need for change in operations, and quickly respond to market threats and customer needs. The RODD framework is developed by integrating a strategic investment method (Real Options Analysis), management transition evaluation (Matrix of Change), competitiveness evaluation (Lotka-Volterra), and dynamic behavior modeling (System Dynamics Modeling) to analyze the feasibility of the transformation, and to assess return on investment of new operation schemes.
Two case studies are used: United Parcel Service of America, Inc., and Firefighting Operations to validate the RODD framework. The results show that the benefits of this decision-making framework are (1) to provide increased flexibility, improved predictions, and more information to decision makers; (2) to assess the value alternative option with regards to uncertainty and competitiveness; (3) to reduce complexity; and (4) to gain a new understanding of operational innovations.Ph.D.
Doctorate
Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
Engineering and Computer Science
Industrial Engineering
24
Celik, Nurcin. "INTEGRATED DECISION MAKING FOR PLANNING AND CONTROL OF DISTRIBUTED MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISES USING DYNAMIC-DATA-DRIVEN ADAPTIVE MULTI-SCALE SIMULATIONS (DDDAMS)." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/195427.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Discrete-event simulation has become one of the most widely used analysis tools for large-scale, complex and dynamic systems such as supply chains as it can take randomness into account and address very detailed models. However, there are major challenges that are faced in simulating such systems, especially when they are used to support short-term decisions (e.g., operational decisions or maintenance and scheduling decisions considered in this research). First, a detailed simulation requires significant amounts of computation time. Second, given the enormous amount of dynamically-changing data that exists in the system, information needs to be updated wisely in the model in order to prevent unnecessary usage of computing and networking resources. Third, there is a lack of methods allowing dynamic data updates during the simulation execution. Overall, in a simulation-based planning and control framework, timely monitoring, analysis, and control is important not to disrupt a dynamically changing system. To meet this temporal requirement and address the above mentioned challenges, a Dynamic-Data-Driven Adaptive Multi-Scale Simulation (DDDAMS) paradigm is proposed to adaptively adjust the fidelity of a simulation model against available computational resources by incorporating dynamic data into the executing model, which then steers the measurement process for selective data update. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed DDDAMS methodology is one of the first efforts to present a coherent integrated decision making framework for timely planning and control of distributed manufacturing enterprises.To this end, comprehensive system architecture and methodologies are first proposed, where the components include 1) real time DDDAM-Simulation, 2) grid computing modules, 3) Web Service communication server, 4) database, 5) various sensors, and 6) real system. Four algorithms are then developed and embedded into a real-time simulator for enabling its DDDAMS capabilities such as abnormality detection, fidelity selection, fidelity assignment, and prediction and task generation. As part of the developed algorithms, improvements are made to the resampling techniques for sequential Bayesian inferencing, and their performance is benchmarked in terms of their resampling qualities and computational efficiencies. Grid computing and Web Services are used for computational resources management and inter-operable communications among distributed software components, respectively. A prototype of proposed DDDAM-Simulation was successfully implemented for preventive maintenance scheduling and part routing scheduling in a semiconductor manufacturing supply chain, where the results look quite promising.
25
Kriegler, Elmar. "Imprecise probability analysis for integrated assessment of climate change." Phd thesis, [S.l. : s.n.], 2005. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?idn=976700247.
Повний текст джерела
26
Jakrawatana, Napat Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty of Engineering UNSW. "An integrated decision support tool for more sustainable management of biomass resources in agricultural regions." Awarded By:University of New South Wales. Civil & Environmental Engineering, 2009. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/44547.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Agriculture currently faces a number of environmental sustainability issues. Three key issues that are the focus of this study are greenhouse gas emissions, depletion of mineral phosphorus resources and cadmium contamination in agricultural soil. Biomass can potentially be used as a renewable energy source and can also be returned to improve the nutrient and drainage structure of agricultural soils. Sustainable management of biomass and agriculture can have significant impacts on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from a region. Moreover, it reduces the demand for external energy supply, phosphorous (P) based fertilizer, and it??s associated Cadmium (Cd) impurity which can contaminate the soil, plant and food chains. These three issues have typically been considered separately, and managed by different agencies or organisations. The aim of this thesis is to develop an integrated decision support tool that can be used for evaluating alternative options for management and resource recovery from biomass for enhancing recovery of energy, returning carbon (C) and phosphorus (P) from biomass back to soil, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and also cadmium (Cd) contamination in an agricultural region. This research employed a combination of the tools of Material Flow Analysis (MFA), Geographic Information System (GIS) and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). MFA is used as the primary tool for this research. GIS and CBA are combined with MFA in later stages of the overall procedure to develop an integrated decision support tool. This integrated tool has been applied to the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (MIA) in Australia. Tracking the flow of essential substances using MFA has identified current resource management efficiency and substances accumulation across the region. Integrating a spatial analysis tool (GIS) with MFA has provided a feedback driven monitoring tool for evaluating trends of spatial accumulation of substances on agricultural land. This enables the time remaining before acceptable limits are exceeded to be estimated on a spatial basis. Integrated MFA and CBA has been applied to evaluate the tradeoffs and potential synergies of alternative biomass management options. Overall the tool can assist in evaluating the effectiveness of alternative scenarios and visualise the results to stakeholders in a systematic way.
27
Peter, Camaren. "Bayesian participatory-based decision analysis : an evolutionary, adaptive formalism for integrated analysis of complex challenges to social-ecological system sustainability." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/18284.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Includes bibliographical references (pages. 379-400).This dissertation responds to the need for integration between researchers and decision-makers who are dealing with complex social-ecological system sustainability and decision-making challenges. To this end, we propose a new approach, called Bayesian Participatory-based Decision Analysis (BPDA), which makes use of graphical causal maps and Bayesian networks to facilitate integration at the appropriate scales and levels of descriptions. The BPDA approach is not a predictive approach, but rather, caters for a wide range of future scenarios in anticipation of the need to adapt to unforeseeable changes as they occur. We argue that the graphical causal models and Bayesian networks constitute an evolutionary, adaptive formalism for integrating research and decision-making for sustainable development. The approach was implemented in a number of different interdisciplinary case studies that were concerned with social-ecological system scale challenges and problems, culminating in a study where the approach was implemented with decision-makers in Government. This dissertation introduces the BPDA approach, and shows how the approach helps identify critical cross-scale and cross-sector linkages and sensitivities, and addresses critical requirements for understanding system resilience and adaptive capacity.
28
Lee, Yen Ling. "Dynamic analysis of the National Innovation Systems model - a case study of Taiwan's integrated circuit industry." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.488411.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This is claimed to be an era of knowledge-based economies; the knowledge developed in National Innovation Systems (NISs) is widely thought to have become crucial to science and technology development in leading economies. Most scholars admit the NIS is a complex, dynamic and non-linear system. In order to enhance understanding of the structure and process of the NIS as well as the level and the rate of flows within an NIS, a system dynamics approach and computer simulations are applied in this research. This research will therefore centre on an attempt to develop a mathematical model of the national innovation system of Taiwan, particularly with regard to its Integrated Circuit (IC) industry. Various definitions and models of an NIS have been proposed from different points of view (e.g. Freeman, 1987; Lundvall, 1992; Nelson, 1993; Patel and Pavitt, 1994; Metcalfe, 1995; Smith, 1996; OECD, 1997; Gregersen et al., 1997; Vanichseni, 1998). The approach taken here is additionally based on the viewpoint of System Dynamics to describe its complex status. Therefore, the main aim of this research is to combine related theories/practices of innovation systems and system dynamics in order to understand both the dynamic relations and the innovative performance among the structural elements (actors) of Taiwan's IC industry. One objective is to increase our insight into the dynamics of national systems of innovation by means of computer modelling and formulating research questions for future research. Another objective is to create scenarios to verify the behaviour of the institutions under investigation by simulation, and to assess possible outcomes in those varying scenarios. By means of questionnaire/in-depth interviews and SD model simulation, as cross-comparisons between them, the thesis aims to increase our insight into the dynamic processes of the Taiwanese IC industry's systems of innovation and our understanding of the interdependence and interaction among the capital flow, human resource flow, knowledge & technology flow and product flow in the NIS. In addition, a comparison of innovation commercialization in Taiwan's IC industry under the different policy tests and scenario tests is undertaken. These simulations show that single policies are relatively ineffective and that innovation performance requires combining a range of policies and capabilities.
29
Motokawa, Katsuhiro. "Research on Corporate Disclosure of Human Capital:An Analysis from the Decision-Usefulness Approach." Kyoto University, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/233830.
Повний текст джерела
30
Reasor, Roderick. "A decision support system for integrated design analysis of a repairable item and it's logistic support system." Diss., This resource online, 1990. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-07102007-142510/.
Повний текст джерела
31
Fadiya, Olusanjo Olaniran. "Development of an integrated decision analysis framework for selecting ICT-based logistics systems in the construction industry." Thesis, University of Wolverhampton, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2436/250494.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The current application of logistics in the construction industry is relatively inefficient when compared with other industries such as retail and manufacturing. The factors attributed to this inefficiency include the fragmented and short-term nature of construction process and inadequate tracking facilities on site. The inefficiency of construction logistics creates inter alia loss of materials and equipment, waste, construction delay, excessive cost and collision accident on site. Meanwhile, several information and communication technologies (ICT) have been proposed and developed by researchers to improve logistics functions such as tracking and monitoring of resources through the supply chain to the construction site. Such technologies include global positioning system (GPS), radio frequency identification devices (RFID), wireless sensors network (WSN) and geographical information system (GIS). While considerable research has been undertaken to develop the aforementioned systems, limited work has so far been done on investment justification prior to implementation. In this research, a framework has been developed to assess the extent of construction logistics problems, measure the significances of the problems, match the problems with existing ICT-based solutions and develop a robust ready-to-use multi-criteria analysis tool that can quantify the costs and benefits of implementing several ICT-based construction logistics systems. The tool is an integrated platform of related evaluation techniques such as Fault Tree Analysis, Decision Tree Analysis, Life Cycle Cost Analysis and Multi-Attribute Utility Theory. Prior to the development of this tool, data was collected through questionnaire survey and analysed by means of statistical analysis in order to derive some foundational parameters of the tool. Quantitative research method was adopted for data collection because the processes of the tool for which the data was required are quantitative. The implementation of this tool is novel given the integration of the analytical techniques mentioned above and the application of the tool for selecting ICT-based construction logistics systems. The tool takes in data such as cost and quantities of materials for a building project and quantifies the cost and benefits of alternative ICT-based tracking systems that can improve the logistics functions of the project. The application of the tool will eliminate guesswork on the benefits of ICT-based tracking systems by providing an objective platform for the quantification of cost and benefits of the systems prior to implementation.
32
Al, Yami H. M. A. "Decision making analysis for an integrated risk management framework of maritime container port infrastructure and transportation systems." Thesis, Liverpool John Moores University, 2017. http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/6371/.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This research proposes a risk management framework and develops generic risk-based decision-making, and risk-assessment models for dealing with potential Hazard Events (HEs) and risks associated with uncertainty for Operational Safety Performance (OSP) in container terminals and maritime ports. Three main sections are formulated in this study: Section 1: Risk Assessment, in the first phase, all HEs are identified through a literature review and human knowledge base and expertise. In the second phase, a Fuzzy Rule Base (FRB) is developed using the proportion method to assess the most significant HEs identified. The FRB leads to the development of a generic risk-based model incorporating the FRB and a Bayesian Network (BN) into a Fuzzy Rule Base Bayesian Network (FRBN) method using Hugin software to evaluate each HE individually and prioritise their specific risk estimations locally. The third phase demonstrated the FRBN method with a case study. The fourth phase concludes this section with a developed generic risk-based model incorporating FRBN and Evidential Reasoning to form an FRBER method using the Intelligence Decision System (IDS) software to evaluate all HEs aggregated collectively for their Risk Influence (RI) globally with a case study demonstration. In addition, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed to rank the HEs based on their True Risk Influence (TRI) considering their specific risk estimations locally and their RI globally. Section 2: Risk Models Simulations, the first phase explains the construction of the simulation model Bayesian Network Artificial Neural Networks (BNANNs), which is formed by applying Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In the second phase, the simulation model Evidential Reasoning Artificial Neural Networks (ERANNs) is constructed. The final phase in this section integrates the BNANNs and ERANNs that can predict the risk magnitude for HEs and provide a panoramic view on the risk inference in both perspectives, locally and globally. Section 3: Risk Control Options is the last link that finalises the risk management based methodology cycle in this study. The Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP) method was used for determining the relative weights of all criteria identified in the first phase. The last phase develops a risk control options method by incorporating Fuzzy Logic (FL) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to form an FTOPSIS method. The novelty of this research provides an effective risk management framework for OSP in container terminals and maritime ports. In addition, it provides an efficient safety prediction tool that can ease all the processes in the methods and techniques used with the risk management framework by applying the ANN concept to simulate the risk models.
33
Fouial, Abdelouahid <1974>. "An Integrated Decision Support System for the Planning, Analysis, Management and Rehabilitation of Pressurised Irrigation Distribution Systems." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2017. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/7942/7/FOUIAL-PhD%20Thesis.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Water scarcity is a mounting problem in arid and semi-arid regions such as the Mediterranean. Therefore, smarter and more effective water management is required, especially in irrigated agriculture. Irrigation infrastructure such as pressurized irrigation distribution systems (PIDSs) play an important role for the intensification of agricultural production in the Mediterranean region. However, the operation and management of these systems can be complex as they involve several intertwined processes, which need to be considered simultaneously. For this reason, numerous decision support systems (DSSs) have been developed and are available to deal with these processes, but as independent components.
To this end, a comprehensive DSS called DESIDS has been developed and tested in the framework of this research. This DSS has been developed bearing in mind the need of irrigation district managers for an integrated tool that can assist them in taking strategic decisions for managing and developing reliable, adequate and sustainable water distribution plans, which provide the best services to farmers. Hence, four modules were integrated in DESIDS: i) the irrigation demand and scheduling module; ii) the hydraulic analysis module; iii) the operation and management modules; and iv) the design and rehabilitation module.
DESIDS was tested on different case studies located in the Apulia region, where it proved to be a valuable tool for irrigation district managers as it provides a wide range of decision options for proper operation and management of PIDSs. All this is obtained through a DSS that offers: i) high level of interactivity; ii) complete control of the irrigation managers; iii) adaptability and flexibility to the problems related to the operation of PIDSs; and iv) effectiveness in assisting irrigation managers with the decision making.
The developed DSS can be used as a platform for future integrations and expansions to include other processes needed for better decision-making support.
34
Rojas, Cordova Alba Claudia. "Resource Allocation Decision-Making in Sequential Adaptive Clinical Trials." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/86348.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Adaptive clinical trials for new drugs or treatment options promise substantial benefits to both the pharmaceutical industry and the patients, but complicate resource allocation decisions. In this dissertation, we focus on sequential adaptive clinical trials with binary response, which allow for early termination of drug testing for benefit or futility at interim analysis points. The option to stop the trial early enables the trial sponsor to mitigate investment risks on ineffective drugs, and to shorten the development time line of effective drugs, hence reducing expenditures and expediting patient access to these new therapies. In this setting, decision makers need to determine a testing schedule, or the number of patients to recruit at each interim analysis point, and stopping criteria that inform their decision to continue or stop the trial, considering performance measures that include drug misclassification risk, time-to-market, and expected profit. In the first manuscript, we model current practices of sequential adaptive trials, so as to quantify the magnitude of drug misclassification risk. Towards this end, we build a simulation model to realistically represent the current decision-making process, including the utilization of the triangular test, a widely implemented sequential methodology. We find that current practices lead to a high risk of incorrectly terminating the development of an effective drug, thus, to unrecoverable expenses for the sponsor, and unfulfilled patient needs. In the second manuscript, we study the sequential resource allocation decision, in terms of a testing schedule and stopping criteria, so as to quantify the impact of interim analyses on the aforementioned performance measures. Towards this end, we build a stochastic dynamic programming model, integrated with a Bayesian learning framework for updating the drug’s estimated efficacy. The resource allocation decision is characterized by endogenous uncertainty, and a trade-off between the incentive to establish that the drug is effective early on (exploitation), due to a time-decreasing market revenue, and the benefit from collecting some information on the drug’s efficacy prior to committing a large budget (exploration). We derive important structural properties of an optimal resource allocation strategy and perform a numerical study based on realistic data, and show that sequential adaptive trials with interim analyses substantially outperform traditional trials. Finally, the third manuscript integrates the first two models, and studies the benefits of an optimal resource allocation decision over current practices. Our findings indicate that our optimal testing schedules outperform different types of fixed testing schedules under both perfect and imperfect information.Ph. D.
35
BELTRAMI, Alberto. "Trnsys integrated modeling support tool for a fast building-plant system design." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Bergamo, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10446/52297.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The present thesis stems from the benefits of the application of energy analysis in any stage of building-plant system design. The research highlights the barriers that prevent this integration and finally proposes the development of a dynamic modeling support tool able to simulate, with a reasonable workload, a very large number of integrated building-plant systems with different scales and resolutions, in order to have a guided design support for architects and HVAC designers/engineers, reducing their modeling effort and errors. The starting point is represented by a flexible and detailed model created with the calculation engine TRNSYS, which allow for the dynamic and integrated simulation of the building envelope, all the heating plant subsystems, and all the plant components related to the production of domestic hot water.
The research explores then strategies and simplifications that can considerably reduce the number of necessary inputs for the simulations, thus minimizing the modeling, implementation and simulation runtime of the model, while still maintaining an acceptable degree of accuracy with respect to the computational results and real energy consumptions. Those results are achieved by defining a methodology, which consists in developing a sizing protocol and a simplification protocol and applying them to real life, complex case studies, first modeling detailed models and progressively enhancing the level of simplification. At each progressive simplification step, the comparison with the detailed model results is given in terms of building energy needs, power curves, efficiencies, modeling and simulation workloads. In particular results show that the accuracy of the most simplified model is always below the 16% with respect to the most detailed model, with a 90% modeling and simulation workload reductions, able to make the tool easy to be adopted at every stage of building-plant system design.
36
BELTRAMI, Alberto. "Trnsys integrated modeling support tool for a fast building-plant system design." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Bergamo, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10446/222107.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The present thesis stems from the benefits of the application of energy analysis in any stage of building-plant system design. The research highlights the barriers that prevent this integration and finally proposes the development of a dynamic modeling support tool able to simulate, with a reasonable workload, a very large number of integrated building-plant systems with different scales and resolutions, in order to have a guided design support for architects and HVAC designers/engineers, reducing their modeling effort and errors. The starting point is represented by a flexible and detailed model created with the calculation engine TRNSYS, which allow for the dynamic and integrated simulation of the building envelope, all the heating plant subsystems, and all the plant components related to the production of domestic hot water. The research explores then strategies and simplifications that can considerably reduce the number of necessary inputs for the simulations, thus minimizing the modeling, implementation and simulation runtime of the model, while still maintaining an acceptable degree of accuracy with respect to the computational results and real energy consumptions. Those results are achieved by defining a methodology, which consists in developing a sizing protocol and a simplification protocol and applying them to real life, complex case studies, first modeling detailed models and progressively enhancing the level of simplification. At each progressive simplification step, the comparison with the detailed model results is given in terms of building energy needs, power curves, efficiencies, modeling and simulation workloads. In particular results show that the accuracy of the most simplified model is always below the 16% with respect to the most detailed model, with a 90% modeling and simulation workload reductions, able to make the tool easy to be adopted at every stage of building-plant system design.
37
Castillo, Rodríguez Jesica Tamara. "INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT: TOWARDS A RISK-INFORMED DECISION MAKING INCORPORATING NATURAL AND HUMAN-INDUCED HAZARDS." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/82305.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Flood risk reduction is a global challenge. Society demands higher safety and security levels, including those actions related to flood defence infrastructure protection against natural hazards and manmade threats.
Dams and levees, among other flood defence infrastructures, are critical hydraulic infrastructures, aiming at reducing the likelihood that people and property will get flooded, but whose failure would result in consequences for the community downstream, including not only economic damages but also loss of life. There is always a probability associated with infrastructure failure, although in general it might be very low.
The purpose of the PhD research, with title "Integrated flood risk management: towards a risk-informed decision making incorporating natural and human-induced hazards", here presented is to propose a framework to enhance integrative flood risk management from a multi-hazard perspective (pluvial flooding, river flooding, dam and levee failure, including man-made threats), addressing current needs for decision making on flood risk reduction and analyzing the complexity of multiple hazards and systems which include multiple components.
The thesis is structured in three main parts, including: (i) Part I, a methodology aiming at providing a common framework for identifying and characterizing flood risk due to pluvial flooding, river flooding and dam failure, and incorporate information on loads, system response and consequences into risk models to analyse societal and economic flood risk, (ii) Part II, an approach for quantifying and analyzing risk for complex dam-levee systems, to incorporate information from levee failure into risk models based on the aforementioned methodology, and to analyse societal and economic flood risk, including the potential failure of these infrastructures, and (iii) Part III, a screening tool to characterize the impact of human induced threats on risk due to dam failure or mission disruption.
Results from this research have proven that the use of risk models provides a logic and mathematically rigorous framework for compiling information for flood risk characterization and analysis from different natural hazards and flood defence performance.
The proposed framework in this thesis and applications aimed at encouraging key actors on flood risk management (infrastructure managers, authorities, emergency action planners, etc.) on the use of QRA, and at demonstrating to what extent QRA can usefully contribute to better understanding risk drivers and inform decisions on how to act to efficiently reduce flood risk.La reducción del riesgo de inundación es un reto global. La sociedad actual demanda cada vez mayores niveles de seguridad, incluyendo la consecución de acciones vinculadas a la protección de las infraestructuras de defensa frente a inundaciones ante amenazas naturales y antrópicas. Presas y diques, entre otras obras de defensa, son infraestructuras críticas cuyo objetivo es reducir la probabilidad de inundación. Sin embargo, su fallo puede resultar en consecuencias para la comunidad situada aguas abajo, incluyendo no sólo daños económicos sino también pérdida potencial de vidas. Siempre existe una cierta probabilidad asociada al fallo de estas infraestructuras, aunque en general muy baja. El objetivo de la investigación llevada a cabo en la presente tesis doctoral, con título "Integrated flood risk management: towards a risk-informed decision making incorporating natural and human-induced hazards", es proporcionar un marco que fomente la gestión integral del riesgo de inundación desde una perspectiva multi-amenaza, considerando las necesidades actuales en la toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de inundación y analizando la complejidad de sistemas con múltiples componentes, afectados por diferentes amenazas. La tesis se estructura en tres partes principales, incluyendo: (a) Parte I, una metodología para proporcionar un marco común para la identificación y caracterización del riesgo de inundación por inundación pluvial, fluvial y fallo de presas, incorporando información sobre solicitaciones, respuesta del sistema y consecuencias en modelos de riesgo que permiten analizar y evaluar el riesgo social y económico por inundación, (b) Parte II, un método para la cuantificación y análisis del riesgo en sistemas complejos presa-dique, con el objetivo de incorporar información referente al fallo de diques en la metodología propuesta en la Parte I, y analizar el riesgo social y económico por inundación incluyendo el fallo de varias infraestructuras de defensa, y (c) Parte III, una herramienta de cribado que permite caracterizar el impacto de amenazas de origen antrópico en el riesgo asociado al fallo de presas. Los resultados de esta investigación demuestran que el uso de modelos de riesgo proporciona un marco lógico y matemáticamente riguroso para la consideración de toda la información necesaria para la adecuada caracterización y análisis del riesgo de inundación por amenazas naturales y por fallo o mal funcionamiento de obras de defensa. El marco metodológico propuesto y las aplicaciones descritas en esta tesis tienen como objetivo impulsar la aplicación del análisis de riesgo por parte de los actores clave en la gestión del riesgo de inundación (gestores de infraestructuras, autoridades locales, gestores de emergencias, etc.) y demostrar en qué medida estos análisis pueden contribuir a alcanzar un mejor conocimiento de los factores clave que componen el riesgo e informar en la toma de decisiones hacia una reducción del riesgo más eficiente.
La reducció del risc d'inundació és un repte global. La societat actual demana majors nivells de seguretat, incloent-hi la realització d'accions vinculades a la protecció de les infraestructures de defensa enfront del risc d'inundacions afectades per amenaces naturals i antròpiques. Preses i dics fluvials, entre altres obres de defensa, són infraestructures crítiques i tenen l'objectiu de reduir la probabilitat d'inundació però el seu trencament pot resultar en conseqüències en, danys econòmics i també pèrdua potencial de vides. Sempre hi ha una certa probabilitat vinculada al trencament d'aquestes infraestructures, encara que en general molt baixa. L'objectiu de la investigació duta a terme en aquesta tesi doctoral, amb títol "Integrated flood risk management: towards a risk-informed decision making incorporating natural and human-induced hazards", és proporcionar un marc per a fomentar la gestió integral del risc d'inundació des d'una perspectiva multi-amenaça, tenint en compte les necessitats actuals per prendre decisions per a la gestió del risc d'inundació i analitzant sistemes complexes amb múltiples components i afectats per diferents amenaces. La tesi s'estructura en tres parts principals: (a) Part I, una metodologia proposada per a proporcionar un marc comú per a la identificació i caracterització del risc d'inundació per inundació pluvial, fluvial i trencament de preses, incorporant informació de sol¿licitacions, resposta del sistema i conseqüències en models de risc que permeten analitzar el risc social i econòmic per inundació, (b) Part II, un mètode per a la quantificació i anàlisi del risc en sistemes complexes, amb l'objectiu d'incorporar informació referent al trencament de dics fluvials en la metodologia descrita en la Part I, i analitzar el risc social i econòmic pel trencament de diverses infraestructures de defensa, i (c) Part III, una ferramenta de pre-anàlisi per a caracteritzar l'impacte d'amenaces de origen antròpic en el risc associat al trencament de preses. Els resultats de la investigació demostren l'utilitat de l'aplicació de models de risc, proporcionant un marc lògic i matemàticament rigorós per a la consideració de tota la informació necessària per a l'adequada caracterització i anàlisi del risc d'inundació per amenaces naturals i per trencament d'obres de defensa. El marc metodològic i les aplicacions derivades d'aquesta tesi tenen com a objectiu impulsar l'aplicació d'anàlisi de risc quantitatius per part dels actors vinculats a la gestió del risc d'inundació (gestors d'infraestructures, autoritats locals, gestors d'emergències, etc.) i demostrar que poden contribuir a disposar d'un millor coneixement dels factors clau que componen el risc, i per a informar les decisions necessàries per a una reducció del risc més eficient.
Castillo Rodríguez, JT. (2017). INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT: TOWARDS A RISK-INFORMED DECISION MAKING INCORPORATING NATURAL AND HUMAN-INDUCED HAZARDS [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/82305
TESIS
38
Youds, Lorraine Helen. "Sustainability assessment of nuclear power in the UK using an integrated multi-criteria decision-support framework." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2013. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/sustainability-assessment-of-nuclear-power-in-the-uk-using-an-integrated-multicriteria-decisionsupport-framework(cdc0c9fa-7b5d-4761-b51c-0fc4bef23a3f).html.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In the UK, the debate surrounding energy production lies at the forefront of the political agenda, with growing emphasis on achieving an increasingly sustainable energy mix into the future. The nuclear option is especially debatable - issues such as waste management and decommissioning receive much attention. In addition, the many stakeholders interested in nuclear power display very divergent views on its sustainability. Since the turn of the century, nuclear power has received much attention globally, with many nations’ governments taking consideration of the potential benefits of new nuclear adoption. Conversely, the Fukushima nuclear disaster has led to new nuclear resistance in other nations, such as Germany, where plans have been made to stop nuclear power generation completely. This research aims to help inform the debate on nuclear power and the future UK electricity mix. A multi-criteria decision support framework (developed by the SPRIng Project) has been used for these purposes, taking into account technical, economic, environmental and social criteria.The methodology used in this work has involved: stakeholder consultation; use of future electricity scenarios; sustainability assessment of current and future electricity options (Pressurised Water Reactor, European Pressurised Reactor, European Fast Rector, coal, gas, solar and wind power, and coal carbon capture and storage [CCS] power); assessment of future electricity scenarios based on both sustainability impacts and stakeholder (expert and public) preferences for the sustainability indicators and electricity technologies. The sustainability assessment of future nuclear power options and coal CCS power have been carried out here for the first time in a UK-specific context.Based on the public and expert opinions on the importance of different sustainability indicators, results of the scenario analysis suggest that the scenario with a high penetration of low-carbon technologies (nuclear [60%] and offshore wind power [40%]) is the most sustainable. For the sample considered in this study, this finding is not sensitive to different stakeholder and public opinions on the importance of the sustainability indicators. However, when the stakeholder preferences for individual technologies are considered, scenarios with high penetration of renewables (26-40% solar and 20-48% wind) become the preferred options. This is due to the favourable stakeholder opinion on solar and wind power. In that case, the scenario with high penetration of nuclear is never the preferred option due to the low to moderate stakeholder preference for nuclear power.Therefore, the results from this research suggest that the ‘sustainability’ of different electricity options and scenarios is highly dependent on stakeholder preferences and priorities. Thus, for successful future deployment of these options and implementation of energy policy measures, transparency of information on the impacts of electricity options is key in ensuring that stakeholder opinions are founded in the actual rather than the perceived impacts of these options.
39
Subagadis, Yohannes Hagos. "A new integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of water resources systems under multiple uncertainties." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2015. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-189212.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational framework. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. The complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions.
This thesis aims to overcome some of these challenges, and to demonstrate how new modeling approaches can provide successful integrative water resources research. It focuses on the development of new integrated modeling approaches which allow integration of not only physical processes but also socio-economic and environmental issues and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems. To achieve this goal, two new approaches are developed in this thesis.
At first, a Bayesian network (BN)-based decision support tool is developed to conceptualize hydrological and socio-economic interaction for supporting management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems. The method demonstrates the value of combining different commonly used integrated modeling approaches. Coupled component models are applied to simulate the nonlinearity and feedbacks of strongly interacting groundwater-agricultural hydrosystems. Afterwards, a BN is used to integrate the coupled component model results with empirical knowledge and stakeholder inputs.
In the second part of this thesis, a fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool is developed to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrates physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework.
Subsequently, the proposed new approaches are applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structures.
The results show the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The first method can aid in the impact assessment of alternative management interventions on sustainability of aquifer systems while accounting for economic (agriculture) and societal interests (employment in agricultural sector) in the study area. Results from the second method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach suits to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. The new approaches can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resource systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.
40
Jiang, Wei Reddy Agami T. "Framework combining static optimization, dynamic scheduling and decision analysis applicable to complex primary HVAC & R systems /." Philadelphia, Pa. : Drexel University, 2005. http://dspace.library.drexel.edu/handle/1860/663.
Повний текст джерела
41
Babaeizadeh, malmiry Roozbeh. "Managing Complexity and Uncertainty by a Modelling Approach for Decision Making in Integrated Product/Process Design." Thesis, Paris, ENSAM, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016ENAM0035/document.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
L'objectif principal lors de la conception et du développement de produits est d'augmenter la valeur de ceux-ci. La Valeur comprend deux aspects : la qualité et le coût. Afin de prendre en compte ces deux aspects, cette thèse se focalise sur la conception intégrée des produits et des processus, et en particulier sur la complexité du processus de conception et les incertitudes associées. Cette thèse propose une approche de modélisation systématique pour maitriser les incertitudes et gérer la complexité. Cette approche comprend deux phases: détermination du modèle et analyse du système. La première phase contient deux propositions : une approche de modélisation de produits basée sur la modélisation des flux d'énergie dans le cadre méthodologique Characteristics-Properties Modelling (CPM). Cette approche donne un cadre qui permet de facilité la transition d’une vue fonctionnelle à une vue structurelle associée à une modélisation quantitative. La seconde proposition porte sur l’aide du concepteur lors de la conception concurrente (IPPD) où à la fois les performances et les coûts sont pris en compte. Cette approche est basée sur le flux du processus en respectant le même cadre (CPM), elle donne aussi un cadre pour la transition fonctionnelle / structurelle. Les modélisations structurelles quantitatives permettent l’analyse de sensibilité, l’analyse des tolérances et l'optimisation. L’application de l'approche est démontrée par une étude de cas industriel.Grâce à cette approche, les caractéristiques modifiables et pertinentes du produit peuvent être déterminées. Le tolérancement peut être intégré dans le processus de conception et son impact sur la performance du produit peut être analysé. Les relations quantitatives du produit, du processus sont identifiées. Les incertitudes dans les relations et dans toutes les étapes de la modélisation peuvent être élicitées et maitrisées. Cette approche systématique donne un cadre pour le concepteur à travers le processus de conception pour prendre des décisions dans tous les niveaux de décomposition sur la base de la fonction requise et le coût de fabrication. L'approche est applicable tant pour la modélisation d'un produit existant (une approche d'optimisation), tant pour la modélisation d'un nouveau produit (phase de conception conceptuelle)The main objective in product design and development is to increase the value of a product. Value includes two aspects of quality and cost. In order to take into account both aspects, this thesis aims at Integrated Product and Process Design, especially on product design complexity and its inherent (associated) complexities. This thesis proposes a systematic modelling approach to reduce uncertainty and manage complexity. The approach includes two phases: model determination and system analysis. The first phase contains two propositions: first, a product modelling approach based on energy flow modelling in the framework of Characteristics-Properties Modelling (CPM). This approach gives a modelling framework for a smoother transition from functional to structural views, with a quantitative modelling. The second proposition is to help the designer for decision making in concurrent designing (IPPD) where both performance and cost are taken into account. This approach is based on the process flows in the same framework (CPM). The second phase is to use the determined model of phase 1 to analyse the system. So, phase 2 includes sensitivity analysis, tolerance analysis and optimisation. An application of the approach is demonstrated through an industrial case study.Thanks to this approach, effective modifiable characteristics of the product on its performance are determined. Tolerancing can be integrated in design process and its impact on the product performance can be analysed. Quantitative links in product, in process and between product elements and process elements are identified. Uncertainty in the links and every step of modelling can be elicited and managed. This systematic approach gives a pathway to the designer through the design process to make decisions in every level of decomposition based on the required function and cost of manufacturing. The approach is applicable for both modelling an existing product (optimisation approach) and modelling a new product (conceptual design phase)
42
Takama, Takeshi. "Stochastic agent-based modelling for reality : dynamic discrete choice analysis with interaction." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2005. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:07a643ed-c98a-4e66-936b-e8b558dbc1e3.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This D.Phil. thesis develops a new agent-based simulation model to improve the results of analysis, which solely uses discrete choice modelling, as well as to analyse the effects of a road user charging scheme for the Upper Derwent Valley in the Peak District National Park. The advantages of discrete choice analysis are well known. However, results with these conventional conventional approaches, which conduct analysis solely with discrete choice models, can be biased if interaction and learning effects are significant. The Minority Game, in which agents try to choose the option of the minority side, is an appropriate tool to deal with these problems. The situation in the Upper Derwent Valley can be explained with economic game theories and the Minority Game. The two approaches mutually help to analyse the situation in the Upper Derwent Valley leading to the development of a stochastic Minority Game. The stochastic Minority Game was tested with an online game (questionnaire), which was played 3,886 times by response in all around the world. The practical part of this thesis examines the components of the stochastic Minority Game with the data collected around the Upper Derwent Valley. The main data was collected using a stated preference survey. Overall, 700 questionnaires were distributed and 323 of them were returned (i.e. a return rate of 46.1 %). In the practical part, the agent-based model has four sub modules: 1) Multinomial mixed logit model for mode choice, 2) Binary logit model for parking location choice, 3) Markov queue model for parking network, and 4) the Minority Game for parking congestion and learning. This simulation model produces comprehensive outputs including mode choices, congestion levels, and user utilities. The results show that the road user charging scheme reduces car demand in the Upper Derwent Valley and ensures a reduction in congestion at the parking areas. The model also shows that an exemption will increase the utilities of elderly visitors without substantially sacrificing those of younger visitors. In conclusion, the simulation model demonstrated that oversimplification in conventional approaches solely using discrete choice models gave significant biases when real world problems were analysed.
43
Knarr, Brian A. "Design and analysis of a finite element model of the biceps brachii integrated with dynamic in vivo strain fields." Access to citation, abstract and download form provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company; downloadable PDF file, 196 p, 2008. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1650507211&sid=4&Fmt=2&clientId=8331&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
Повний текст джерела
44
Sharma, Ashley. "X-33 INTEGRATED TEST FACILITY EXTENDED RANGE SIMULATION." International Foundation for Telemetering, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/609695.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
International Telemetering Conference Proceedings / October 26-29, 1998 / Town & Country Resort Hotel and Convention Center, San Diego, CaliforniaIn support of the X-33 single-stage-to-orbit program, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center was selected to provide continuous range communications of the X-33 vehicle from launch at Edwards Air Force Base, California, through landing at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Montana, or at Michael Army Air Field, Utah. An extensive real-time range simulation capability is being developed to ensure successful communications with the autonomous X-33 vehicle. This paper provides an overview of the various levels of simulation, integration, and test being developed to support the X-33 extended range subsystems. These subsystems include the flight termination system, L-band command uplink subsystem, and S-band telemetry downlink subsystem.
45
Ashuri, Baabak. "A Real Options Approach to Modeling Investments in Competitive, Dynamic Retail Markets." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/24608.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The retail industry is considered to be a very competitive industry in the United States since there are so many players in the almost saturated retail markets that provide similar products and services at similar price levels to customers. Market selection has been identified as an important strategy to differentiate a retailer in this competitive market. Therefore in this thesis, we describe a conceptual framework to evaluate retailers investment opportunities in dynamic, competitive retail markets. The objective is to describe a conceptual investment analysis framework to address the strategic aspects of a retailer s investment opportunity as well as the dynamic uncertainty of a retail market in a single framework. This conceptual framework outlines a strategic view towards retail stores as flexible assets of a retail enterprise. This conceptual framework is general and can be adjusted and applied to investments options in other services.
In addition, we develop an integrated investment analysis approach based on dynamic programming to explore retailers investment behaviors in dynamic markets. The objective is to determine retailers optimal investment thresholds in noncompetitive and competitive markets. We consider two retailers to illustrate our approach and use a simple game theory treatment to address competition in retail markets. We use our integrated investment analysis model based on a real options methodology to evaluate the apparent tendency for the small discount retailer invests earlier in a new developing market due to the competition effect from the large discount retailer. This early entry gives the small retail a first-mover advantage and delays the big retailer s entry into the competitive market. In addition, we conduct sensitivity analysis to characterize how significantly the values of our model parameters impact the retailers investment decisions.
We also develop an integrated investment analysis approach based on contingent claims analysis to explore retailers investment behaviors in dynamic markets. The objective is to determine retailers optimal investment thresholds in noncompetitive and competitive markets. The equivalent risk neutral evaluation approach is presented in this thesis as an extended version of the contingent claims analysis approach, which facilitates the market-oriented valuation of the retailer s investment option in dynamic markets. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to study how retailers optimal investment thresholds change as the values of parameters in this equivalent risk neutral evaluation approach change. The relationship between the dynamic programming and the equivalent risk neutral evaluation approach is also summarized in this thesis to identify the similarities and the differences between these two investment analysis approaches. One of the most important objectives of this comparison is to determine in what market conditions the choice of investment analysis approach is critical and dramatically changes the retailer s optimal investment threshold.
Finally, we empirically examine an important aspect of our theoretical work that the big retailer invests and opens a store relatively later in markets with a small retailer compared to markets without a small retailer. In addition, the big retailer opens a store at relatively higher retail market potential in markets with a small retailer compared to markets without a small retailer. In this thesis, we discuss some empirical evidence to support these theoretical results. We chose Wal-Mart and Dollar General as the big and small retailers, respectively, in our empirical study. Our empirical results do not validate the theory and just provide supporting evidence for our theoretical works.
46
Nadirova, Anna A. "Understanding leisure decision-making, an integrated analysis of recreation participation, anticipated leisure benefits, environmental attitudes, leisure constraints, and constraints negotiation." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp02/NQ59642.pdf.
Повний текст джерела
47
Unsal, Oral Sevinc. "An Integrated Seismic Hazard Framework For Liquefaction Triggering Assessment Of Earthfill Dams'." Master's thesis, METU, 2009. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12610362/index.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Within the confines of this study, seismic soil liquefaction triggering potential of a dam foundation is assessed within an integrated probabilistic seismic hazard assessment framework. More specifically, the scheme presented hereby directly integrates effective stress-based seismic soil liquefaction triggering assessment with seismic hazard analysis framework, supported by an illustrative case. The proposed methodology successively, i) processes the discrete stages of probabilistic seismic hazard workflow upon seismic source characterization, ii) numerically develops the target elastic acceleration response spectra for typical rock sites, covering all the earthquake scenarios that are re-grouped with respect to earthquake magnitude and distance, iii) matches the strong ground motion records selected from a database with the target response spectra for every defined scenario, and iv) performs 2-D equivalent linear seismic response analyses of a 56 m high earth fill dam founded on 24 m thick alluvial deposits. Results of seismic response analyses are presented in the form of annual probability of excess pore pressure ratios and seismically-induced lateral deformations exceeding various threshold values. For the purpose of assessing the safety of the dam slopes, phi-c reduction based slope stability analyses were also performed representing post-liquefaction conditions. After having integrated this phi-c reduction analyses results into the probabilistic hazard framework, annual probabilities of factor of safety of slopes exceeding various threshold values were estimated. As the concluding remark, probability of liquefaction triggering, induced deformations and factor of safeties are presented for a service life of 100 years. It is believed that the proposed probabilistic seismic performance assessment methodology which incorporates both phi-c reduction based failure probabilities and seismic soil liquefaction-induced deformation potentials, provides dam engineers a robust methodology to rationally quantify the level of confidence with their decisions regarding if costly mitigation of dam foundation soils against seismic soil liquefaction triggering hazard and induced risks is necessary.
48
Lee, Dug Man. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Timber Market and Carbon Flux of Forest under Global Warming: An Integrated Modeling Approach." DigitalCommons@USU, 2000. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/3909.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
As global warming migrates ecosystems toward the poles, the result has been a change in the distribution of ecosystem types and the productivity of ecosystem as well. Similar to other natural resources, forests are also potentially affected as ecosystems move toward the poles. Consequently, human beings are forced to adapt, and global warming will generate an impact on the global timber market through changes in timber harvests, regeneration inputs, stumpage prices, etc. In addition, the dynamic process of forest change in response to economic activities of human beings will accelerate or dampen the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. In this context, we propose an integrated modeling approach to identify the effect of global warming on the global timber market, and examine the feedback effect of the global timber market on global warming.
To perform the primary research objective, we estimated dynamic ecological change based on (1) the simulation results of BIOME 3 using hamburg and (2) the linearity assumptions about change in climate and ecosystem. With the estimates of dynamic ecological change, we modified the Timber Supply Model 2000 (TSM 2000) to reflect the dynamic ecological change caused by climate change. After simulating the base scenario and the climate change scenario of TSM 2000, we identified that global warming has a positive effect on the global timber market.
For the secondary research objective, we extend the modeling framework by incorporating the Terrestrial Carbon Model (TCM) designed to investigate net carbon release into the atmosphere. Simulating both the base TCM and the modified TCM which reflects climate change, we identified that the global timber market has a dampening (negative feedback) effect on global warming through net carbon sequestering. Fore sensitivity analyses, we performed these simulation procedures under three different timber demand growth scenarios
49
Al-Hamadi, Hamid Helal. "Dynamic Redundancy Management of Multisource Multipath Routing Integrated with Voting-based Intrusion Detection in Wireless Sensor Networks." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/47681.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are frequently deployed unattended and can be easily captured or compromised. Once compromised, intrusion prevention methods such as encryption can no longer provide any protection, as a compromised node is considered a legitimate node and possesses the secret key for decryption. Compromised nodes are essentially inside attackers and can perform various attacks to break the functionality of the system. Thus, for safety-critical WSNs, intrusion detection techniques must be used to detect and remove inside attackers and fault tolerance techniques must be used to tolerate inside attackers to prevent security failure.
In this dissertation research, we develop a class of dynamic redundancy management algorithms for redundancy management of multisource multipath routing for fault and intrusion tolerance, and majority voting for intrusion detection, with the goal of maximizing the WSN lifetime while satisfying application quality-of-service and security requirements, for base station based WSNs, homogeneous clustered WSNs, and heterogeneous clustered WSNs. By means of a novel model-based analysis methodology based on probability theory, we model the tradeoff between energy consumption vs. reliability, timeliness and security gain, and identify the optimal multisource multipath redundancy level and intrusion detection settings for maximizing the lifetime of the WSN while satisfying application quality-of-service requirements. A main contribution of our research dissertation is that our dynamic redundancy management protocol design addresses the issues of "how many paths to use" and "what paths to use" in multisource multipath routing for intrusion tolerance. Another contribution is that we take an integrated approach combining intrusion detection and tolerance in the protocol design to address the issue of "how much intrusion detection is enough" to prevent security failure and prolong the WSN lifetime time.
We demonstrate resiliency of our dynamic redundancy management protocol design for intrusion detection and tolerance against sophisticated attacker behaviors, including selective and random capture, as well as persistent, random, opportunistic and insidious attacks, by model-based performance analysis with results supported by extensive simulation based on ns3.Ph. D.
50
Munasib, Abdul B. A. "Lifecycle of social networks: A dynamic analysis of social capital accumulation." The Ohio State University, 2005. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1121441394.
Повний текст джерела