Статті в журналах з теми "Hydrometeorological hazard"
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1
Lanza, L., and F. Siccardi. "Hydrometeorological hazard in A changing perspective." Surveys in Geophysics 16, no. 2 (March 1995): 137–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00665776.
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Radeva, Kalina, and Nina Nikolova. "Hydrometeorological Drought hazard and vulnerability assessment for Northern Bulgaria." Geographica Pannonica 24, no. 2 (2020): 112–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/gp24-25074.
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Ahmed, A., MS Hossain, and AK Majumder. "Impact of Hydrometeorological Hazards on Agricultural Production at Chalan Beel, Bangladesh." SAARC Journal of Agriculture 18, no. 2 (January 4, 2021): 181–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/sja.v18i2.51118.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Agriculture of Bangladesh is closely dependent on weather, rainfall pattern and land formation. However, frequent hydro-meteorological hazards cause to adversely affect the normal agricultural process and production. This study aimed to assess the impact of Hydro meteorological hazards on the crop cultivation practices, possible mitigation and adaptation measures for the farmers at Chalan Beel area under Pabna district, Bangladesh. There are 90 people having land and engaged with crop cultivation directly at Chalan Beel were been selected by applying purposive sampling method and interviewed by a pre-designed semi-structured questionnaire through face to face interview. The results revealed that Rice (93.75 %) and Garlic (47.5 %) are the major cultivating crops at Chalan Beel and 96 % of the farmers were been experienced with hydrometeorological devastation. The farmers perceived Nor’wester (77.9 %) as the most frequent hazard causing crop damage following by Heavy Rainfall (71.4 %), Hailstorm (68.8 %), Heavy Wind (45.5 %), Flashflood (42.9 %), Heavy Fog and Floods (19.5 % and 11.7 %) respectively. It is also identified that Nor’wester (58.4 %) and Heavy Rainfall (58.4 %) had maximum damage whereas Hailstorm (55.8 %), Heavy Wind and Flashflood also considerable adverse effects on overall crop production at this area. Only 24 % of farmers were found to change their cultivation pattern as the adaptation measure. This study portrayed that hydro-meteorological hazards are adversely affecting the crop production at Chalan Beel area and resulting economic loss. Therefore, government should ensure the participation of farmers along with adopting their deliberative in developing a strategic plan for providing technical support for diversification and training to adapt in this hazard prone area.
SAARC J. Agri., 18(2): 181-193 (2020)
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Carlos Lam, Juan, Jürgen Hackl, Magnus Heitzler, Bryan T. Adey, and Lorenz Hurni. "Impact Assessment of Extreme Hydrometeorological Hazard Events on Road Networks." Journal of Infrastructure Systems 26, no. 2 (June 2020): 04020005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(asce)is.1943-555x.0000530.
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Kroll, Josephin, Jasper M. C. Denissen, Mirco Migliavacca, Wantong Li, Anke Hildebrandt, and Rene Orth. "Spatially varying relevance of hydrometeorological hazards for vegetation productivity extremes." Biogeosciences 19, no. 2 (January 28, 2022): 477–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-477-2022.
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Abstract. Vegetation plays a vital role in the Earth system by sequestering carbon, producing food and oxygen, and providing evaporative cooling. Vegetation productivity extremes have multi-faceted implications, for example on crop yields or the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here, we focus on productivity extremes as possible impacts of coinciding, potentially extreme hydrometeorological anomalies. Using monthly global satellite-based Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data as a proxy for vegetation productivity from 2007–2015, we show that vegetation productivity extremes are related to hydrometeorological hazards as characterized through ERA5-Land reanalysis data in approximately 50 % of our global study area. For the latter, we are considering sufficiently vegetated and cloud-free regions, and we refer to hydrometeorological hazards as water- or energy-related extremes inducing productivity extremes. The relevance of the different hazard types varies in space; temperature-related hazards dominate at higher latitudes with cold spells contributing to productivity minima and heat waves supporting productivity maxima, while water-related hazards are relevant in the (sub-)tropics with droughts being associated with productivity minima and wet spells with the maxima. Alongside single hazards compound events such as joint droughts and heat waves or joint wet and cold spells also play a role, particularly in dry and hot regions. Further, we detect regions where energy control transitions to water control between maxima and minima of vegetation productivity. Therefore, these areas represent hotspots of land–atmosphere coupling where vegetation efficiently translates soil moisture dynamics into surface fluxes such that the land affects near-surface weather. Overall, our results contribute to pinpointing how potential future changes in temperature and precipitation could propagate to shifting vegetation productivity extremes and related ecosystem services.
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Harrison, Sara E., Sally H. Potter, Raj Prasanna, Emma E. H. Doyle, and David Johnston. "Identifying the Impact-Related Data Uses and Gaps for Hydrometeorological Impact Forecasts and Warnings." Weather, Climate, and Society 14, no. 1 (January 2022): 155–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-21-0093.1.
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Abstract Impact forecasts and warnings (IFW) are key to resilience for hydrometeorological hazards. Communicating the potential social, economic, and environmental hazard impacts allows individuals and communities to adjust their plans and better prepare for the consequences of the hazard. IFW systems require additional knowledge about impacts and underlying vulnerability and exposure. Lack of data or knowledge about impacts, vulnerability, and exposure has been identified as a challenge for IFW implementation. In this study, we begin to address this challenge by developing an understanding of the data needs and uses for IFWs. Using the grounded theory method, we conducted a series of interviews with users and creators of hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure data (e.g., warning services, forecasters, meteorologists, hydrologists, emergency managers, data specialists, risk modelers) to understand where these data are needed and used in the warning value chain, a concept used to represent and understand the flow of information among actors in the warning chain. In support of existing research, we found a growing need for creating, gathering, and using impact, vulnerability, and exposure data for IFWs. Furthermore, we identified different approaches for impact forecasting and defining impact thresholds using objective models and subjective impact-oriented discussions depending on the data available. We also provided new insight into a growing need to identify, model, and warn for social and health impacts, which have typically taken a back seat to modeling and forecasting physical and infrastructure impacts. Our findings on the data needs and uses within IFW systems will help guide their development and provide a pathway for identifying specific relevant data sources.
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Docherty, Julia M., Feng Mao, Wouter Buytaert, Julian RA Clark, and David M. Hannah. "A framework for understanding water-related multi-hazards in a sustainable development context." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 44, no. 2 (January 30, 2020): 267–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133319900926.
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Hazards often do not occur in isolation and, for this reason, a multi-hazard approach is vital in realising their impact and providing solutions for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. We present a novel framework that emerges from a bibliometric analysis of the multi-hazard literature and a critical appraisal of the existing approaches. It was found that multi-hazard research has expanded greatly over the last 20 years, furthering our understanding of the subject with important applications in risk assessment and management. These studies have contextualised multi-hazards, developed models and frameworks to analyse them, provided case studies to test multi-hazard-based approaches and produced reviews. It was found that landslides and floods are the most frequently co-occurring hazards within the bibliographic dataset, yet understanding of their interactions, hydrometeorological drivers and landscape controls remains poorly conceptualised. Therefore, we propose a new framework for investigating water-related multi-hazards that leverages and synthesises existing methods to address the challenges identified to date. We also find a geographical bias, with less multi-hazard research in lower- and middle-income countries and remote environments due to data scarcity and limited accessibility. Our framework therefore includes the ability to address geographically specific key considerations including available and accessible data, community variability and cross-sectoral collaborations. In doing so it offers guidance on structuring future analyses to improve our understanding of multi-hazards, reduce disaster risk, increase community resilience and make progress towards sustainable development.
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Mavrouli, Maria, Spyridon Mavroulis, Efthymios Lekkas, and Athanassios Tsakris. "Infectious Diseases Associated with Hydrometeorological Hazards in Europe: Disaster Risk Reduction in the Context of the Climate Crisis and the Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 16 (August 17, 2022): 10206. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191610206.
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Hydrometeorological hazards comprise a wide range of events, mainly floods, storms, droughts, and temperature extremes. Floods account for the majority of the related disasters in both developed and developing countries. Flooding alters the natural balance of the environment and frequently establish a favorable habitat for pathogens and vectors to thrive. Diseases caused by pathogens that require vehicle transmission from host to host (waterborne) or a host/vector as part of their life cycle (vector-borne) are those most likely to be affected by flooding. Considering the most notable recent destructive floods events of July 2021 that affected several Central Europe countries, we conducted a systematic literature review in order to identify documented sporadic cases and outbreaks of infectious diseases in humans in Europe, where hydrometeorological hazards, mainly floods, were thought to have been involved. The occurrence of water-, rodent-, and vector-borne diseases in several European countries is highlighted, as flooding and the harsh post-flood conditions favor their emergence and transmission. In this context, strategies for prevention and management of infectious disease outbreaks in flood-prone and flood-affected areas are also proposed and comprise pre- and post-flood prevention measures, pre- and post-outbreak prevention measures, as well as mitigation actions when an infectious disease outbreak finally occurs. Emphasis is also placed on the collision of floods, flood-related infectious disease outbreaks, and the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, which may result in unprecedented multi-hazard conditions and requires a multi-hazard approach for the effective disaster management and risk reduction.
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Aliyah, Nur, Supriatna, and A. Azis Kurniawan. "A Study on the Potential Vulnerability of Debris Flow Hazard in Sukabumi Regency." Jurnal Lanskap Indonesia 14, no. 2 (October 1, 2022): 45–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.29244/jli.v14i2.39087.
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Debris-flow hazards are a hydrometeorological disaster that often occurs in parts of Indonesia. The intensity of Debris-flow hazards increases Debris-flow hazards are a Debris-flow Debris-flow hazards are a hydrometeorological disaster that often occurs in parts of Indonesia. The intensity of Debris-flow hazards increases in various parts of Indonesia in line with climate change and environmental degradation. Sukabumi Regency has a diverse topography with a relatively high annual rainfall rate of 2,805 mm/year with 144 rainy days. In 2020, Sukabumi Regency was affected by Debris-flow hazards in three Districts. In a study by the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), Sukabumi District is prone to land movements. There has been no study of Debris-flow hazards in the Sukabumi Regency area. This study aims to determine regions of the Sukabumi Regency that have the potential for Debris-flow hazards. It is hoped that the study results will also complement the disaster studies that BNPB has made. The method used is a weighted multi-criteria analysis. The parameters used are rainfall, location of the 2020 flood, slope, land cover, altitude, and soil type. The results showed that the level of vulnerability is very prone to be located in the northern part of Sukabumi.
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Glantz, Michael H., Lino Naranjo-Diaz, Qian Ye, and Gregory E. Pierce. "Mainstreaming the Full ENSO: Linking Present Weather and Future Climate." International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 13, no. 6 (December 2022): 829–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13753-022-00459-6.
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AbstractIn this article we propose that all countries that are striving to become a Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) would benefit greatly from including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related research findings into their decision-making processes, not only when an El Niño or a La Niña forecast has been issued quasi-periodically. For an aspiring WRN, to benefit from ENSO information, such as disruptive or beneficial changes that could be foreseeably expected to occur in seasonal flow and in sub-seasonal hydrometeorological anomalies, requires its continuous mainstreaming about the status of the ENSO process into a WRN’s decision-making activities. The ENSO process provides a bridge between sub-seasonal weather anomalies and a sub-decadal climate phenomenon as well as a bridge between coping with weather extremes today and preparing for climate change-related hydrometeorological hazards in the future. ENSO extremes every few years provide a chance to evaluate a nation’s strategic and tactical responses to hydrometeorological hazard forecasts and disasters. Each successive ENSO extreme and its Neutral phase tests previously designed best practices. Involvement of today’s youth and young professionals on climate, water, and weather issues has been increasing and will do so in coming decades. Shifting awareness and attention to ENSO and away from ENSO extremes is crucial. The heightened urgency for understanding the full ENSO “cycle” especially by youth and young professionals today is because they will soon be in professional positions that enable them to advise decision makers about climate policy issues. Their understanding of the ENSO cycle is critically needed, as global warming is expected to continue to increase for the rest of the twenty-first century.
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Yuniartanti, Rizki Kirana. "Rekomendasi Adaptasi dan Mitigasi Bencana Banjir di Kawasan Rawan Bencana (KRB) Banjir Kota Bima." Journal of Regional and Rural Development Planning 2, no. 2 (August 21, 2018): 118. http://dx.doi.org/10.29244/jp2wd.2018.2.2.118-132.
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Flood disaster occurred on December 21, 2016, December 23, 2016, and January 2, 2017 in Bima city area, covering Mpunda district, Rasanae Timur district, Asakota district, Rasanae Barat district, and Raba district. The urban area is the most affected area of flash flood, mainly residential areas that are located more than 50 meters from the flood plains, with flood heights ranging from 1 to 4 meters. The main factor that caused flood disaster is high rainfall. In addition to the hydrometeorological factor, flood in Bima city was caused by various factors, including its location at a basin area, flood plains that are utilized for settlements nowadays, silting downstreams, poor management of drainage systems, reduced vegetation-cover in the upstream, and narrowing of river bodies. Looking at the problems and challenges of the hydrometeorological disaster, this research aims to recommend adaptation and mitigation for flood disaster and space utilization conversion in disaster prone areas of Bima city. Analytical methods used in this research includes participatory mapping to delineate the flood affected area, HEC-RAS and HEC-GEORAS to map and model flood hazards, and quantitative descriptive to describe data and information. Output of this research are adaptation and mitigation recommendations based on the mapping of flood hazard areas and the modeling of flood disaster prone areas.
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Ismailov, N. Y., and A. U. Chymyrov. "MAPPING OF AVALANCHE HAZARD ALONG THE OSH-BISHKEK ROAD." Herald of KSUCTA, №2, Part 1, 2022, no. 2-1-2022 (April 30, 2022): 276–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.35803/1694-5298.2022.2.276-282.
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This article describes in detail the new methodology and results of research on mapping and development of the avalanche hazard geodatabase of the Bishkek-Osh transport corridor. The Bishkek-Osh Road, connecting the northern and southern parts of the country, has a strategic role, but prone to various types of natural and man-made risks, the most frequent of which are avalanches. Reduction of the avalanche risk, which annually cause significant socio-economic losses, is possible with the application of new technologies, scientific and technological achievements. The research has used modern geoinformation technologies and methods for studying geographic, topographic, soil-geological, hydrometeorological, botanical and other objects on the most avalanche prone sections of the Bishkek-Osh Road. A geodatabase has been developed with digital maps of the area and avalanches based on the results of digitized paper maps and entering operational and statistical data on snow avalanches.
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Widjonarko, Widjonarko, and Maryono Maryono. "Sustainable Land Use Model In Garang Watershed." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1082, no. 1 (September 1, 2022): 012028. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1082/1/012028.
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Abstract Land cover change is a phenomenon that often occurs along with population growth and economic activity. This phenomenon not only occurs in urban areas but also penetrates into suburban areas, which incidentally have an important role in the water flow system. The same condition occurs in the Garang Watershed, Semarang City, where changes in land cover have begun to penetrate the water catchment area. Land cover change in the Garang watershed system will certainly have consequences for potential water-related disasters, and it will get worse due to climate change. Climate change in many places has triggered a water-related disaster or hydrometeorological disaster. Land cover change and climate change are conditions that cannot be avoided but can be managed so that they do not have a negative impact on the community. To minimize the adverse impacts of land cover changes and climate change is to provide land use directions that can reduce the threat of hydrometeorological disasters so that the sustainability of the ecosystem in the Garang watershed can be maintained. One approach that can be used in the framework of sustainable land use modeling is the spatial regression method. The results of the analysis show that the role of vegetation and water reservoirs can significantly reduce the potential hazard of hydrometeorological disasters.
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Lyubitskiy, Yu V., A. N. Vrazhkin, and P. O. Kharlamov. "Forecasting of hazardous marine hydrometeorological phenomena for the regions of oil and gas deposit development on the Sea of Okhotsk Shelf." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 895, no. 1 (November 1, 2021): 012023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/895/1/012023.
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Abstract A brief description of the marine hazard forecast methods and technology for the Sea of Okhotsk developed in the Federal State Budgetary Institution “ Far Eastern Regional Hydrometeorological Research Institute (FERHRI)” is presented. These methods and technology provide numerical prognostic products for the following parameters: wave height, period and direction; sea ice concentration, thickness, drift and compression; sea level and storm surges. The successful cases of practical applications of these forecasts demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed forecast methods and technology.
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Putra, Dekka Dhirgantara, Bahrul Fikry Sofwany, Hukma Zulfinanda та Iqbal Kamaruddin. "Flash flood (Δ) risk and damage assessment in batu, East Java". Jurnal Teknosains 12, № 1 (22 грудня 2022): 72. http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/teknosains.78483.
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Hydrometeorological disasters are showing an increasing trend in Indonesia. Flash floods are part of a hydrometeorological disaster that has a significant livelihood impact. Flash Flood is triggered by the intensity of extreme rain, several actions of mitigation can be taken by early warning systems, hazard and risk mapping, community preparedness, and climate change adaptation. So, how does future land use have an impact, and how much loss will result from the flash flood disaster in Batu City? The hydrometeorological disaster that occurred in Indonesia was the Batu Flash Flood. The Flash Flood occurred on November 4, 2021. The flash flood has a lot of impact on many locations, including the Bumiaji District and Junrejo District. Based on the disaster history recorded, the flash flood in Batu has only happened once, but the impact was quite big because there are many houses in the midstream of Bulukerto. Based on the losses caused, this can be the basis for efforts to control the spatial pattern of Batu City in the future. The methodology used in this study is risk assessment. While the risk study related to delta (Δ) the study of flash floods risk in spatiotemporal prevention uses the 2030 spatial plan for delta prediction (Δ), which can later predict the consequences of climate change and meteorological disasters from flash floods in Batu. The results of this study are the delta (Δ) of flash flood risk and the damage assessment of the flash flood that occurred in Batu.
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Tylkowski, J., and R. Kolander. "Potential hydrometeorological threshold values of the coastal hazard—an example from the Polish Southern Baltic coast." Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 39, no. 9 (September 2014): 614–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.3103/s1068373914090064.
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Finnigan, Gerard A. "The natural environment as a disaster hazard." Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal 28, no. 6 (November 4, 2019): 724–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/dpm-09-2019-0294.
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Purpose The rapid deterioration of the earth’s natural ecosystems are increasing the risk of human morbidity and mortality worldwide. Hydrometeorological hazards are concentrating contaminants from the damaged environment and exposing large vulnerable populations to life threating illnesses and death. This study performed a retrospective health risk assessment on two recent events where such impacts unfolded, namely, the 2015 south east Equatorial Asia smoke haze disaster and the 2016 Melbourne thunderstorm asthma epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to test if the characterisation of health risk warranted earlier and more effective risk reduction activities prior to the disasters occurring. Design/methodology/approach A retrospective health risk characterisation assessment was performed combing United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Health Aspect in Disaster Risk Assessment (2017) framework with a thematic and targeted word literature review to identify the level of risk knowledge prior to each event. A risk characterisation matrix was then created to characterise the health risk of each hazard event. Findings The 2015 south east Equatorial Asia smoke haze disaster risk assessment was characterised as “extreme” health risk and the 2016 Melbourne thunderstorm asthma epidemic was characterised as “high” health risk. Practical implications Reaching the goals of the Sendai Framework require strategies and plans which urgently address the catastrophic level of mortality risk posed by exposure to environmental contaminants. Originality/value Innovative approaches and partnerships are necessary to mitigate the risk from the deteriorating health of the environment and natural ecosystems, along with disaster response initiatives that reduce exposure of vulnerable people on a large scale.
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Nelson, Andrew, Sarah Lindbergh, Lucy Stephenson, Jeremy Halpern, Fatima Arroyo Arroyo, Xavier Espinet, and Marta C. González. "Coupling Natural Hazard Estimates with Road Network Analysis to Assess Vulnerability and Risk: Case Study of Freetown (Sierra Leone)." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2673, no. 8 (January 17, 2019): 11–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198118822272.
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Many of the world’s most disaster-prone cities are also the most difficult to model and plan. Their high vulnerability to natural hazards is often defined by low levels of economic resources, data scarcity, and limited professional expertise. As the frequency and severity of natural disasters threaten to increase with climate change, and as cities sprawl and densify in hazardous areas, better decision-making tools are needed to mitigate the effects of near- and long-term extreme events. We use mostly public data from landslide and flooding events in 2017 in Freetown, Sierra Leone to simulate the events’ impact on transportation infrastructure and continue to simulate alternative high-risk disasters. From this, we propose a replicable framework that combines natural hazard estimates with road network vulnerability analysis for data-scarce environments. Freetown’s most central road intersections and transects are identified, particularly those that are both prone to serviceability loss due to natural hazard and whose disruption would cause the most severe immediate consequences on the entire road supply in terms of connectivity. Variations in possible road use are also tested in areas with potential road improvements, pointing to opportunities to harden infrastructure or reinforce redundancy in strategic transects of the road network. This method furthers network science’s contributions to transportation resilience under hydrometeorological hazard and climate change threats with the goal of informing investments and improving decision-making on transportation infrastructure in data-scarce environments.
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Pryakhina, Galina, Vasiliy Dmitriev, Antonina Chetverova, Tatiana Osipova, Aleksandr Ogurtsov, and Evgeniy Akilov. "Assessment of the explosion hazard of the Antarctic Oasis lake using a composite index based on territorial determinants." InterCarto. InterGIS 28, no. 2 (2022): 552–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.35595/2414-9179-2022-2-28-552-566.
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Lake outbursts floods is belonging to the hydrometeorological hazards. They occur as a result of destruction of snow-ice or earth dams and are most typical for lakes of alpine and polar regions. Glacial lakes outbursts floods (GLOF) are widely spread on water bodies of Antarctic oases. Methods for GLOF’s hazard assessment include monitoring, component analysis, point-by-point estimates, etc.) often overestimate the degree of the GLOF’s hazard compare to the real situation. The article presents the first experience of using the method of constructing composite indices (CI) based on territorial determinants for assessing the GLOF’s hazard. The case study of using of CI on water bodies located in the Larsemann Hills Oasis (Brocknes Peninsula, East Antarctica) is presented in the article. The study is based on the incito data obtained by the authors and the archival materials of the Russian Antarctic Expedition (RAE) in 2008–2021, collected in the PAULAS database. The calculations of CI show that the results are generally consistent with the in-cito measurements. The results are presented as maps showing the degree of GLOF’s hazard and the most vulnerable sections of the routes connecting wintering stations to the airfield. The intervals of changes for most of the considered criteria, used for CI calculation, were determined by expert method, and, therefore, largely depended on the experience of researchers and their understanding of the natural processes. The future studies will be supposed to refine and possibly supplement the list of criteria. Nevertheless, in the conditions of shortage of water level field measurements, the considered method can be used to assess the GLOF’s hazard of poorly studied and unstudied water bodies not only of Antarctic oases, but also of high-mountain glacial lakes.
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Massoud, Elias C., Lauren Andrews, Rolf Reichle, Andrea Molod, Jongmin Park, Sophie Ruehr, and Manuela Girotto. "Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System." Earth System Dynamics 14, no. 1 (February 8, 2023): 147–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-147-2023.
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Abstract. Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of Ranom=0.18 for precipitation to Ranom=0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from Ranom=0.13 for snow water equivalent to Ranom=0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.
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Ramesh, K. J., A. Ramakrishna Nagaraju, M. V. Ramanamurthy, G. Prasad Rao, and Y. Ramesh. "Framework development of hydrometeorological observational network and hazard mitigation modelling systems in respect of floods and cyclones." Natural Hazards 41, no. 3 (January 11, 2007): 531–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9048-3.
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Lara Carvajal, Guadalupe Isabel, Rodolfo Sosa Echeverría, Víctor Magaña, Georgina Fernández Villagómez, and Jonathan D. W. Kahl. "Assessment of Chemical Risks Associated with Hydrometeorological Phenomena in a Mexican Port on the Gulf of Mexico." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10, no. 10 (October 18, 2022): 1518. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse10101518.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Accidents in port areas in the Gulf of Mexico have had great economic costs, since this is an area exposed to extreme phenomena. Tropical cyclones or cold fronts, also known as Tehuantepecers, result in intense winds and waves that impact the coastal infrastructure. The chemical risk associated with extreme winds and waves for the fuel storage tanks of the facility of the Port of Veracruz, the main Mexican port in the Gulf of Mexico, was evaluated with a historical analysis of accidents as a tool to identify significant factors in disasters and establish risk acceptance criteria. It was found that the critical hazard threshold for Veracruz corresponds to winds stronger than 160 km/h (44 m/s) that may result in coastal waves of more than 5 m high. The vulnerability to these phenomena was calculated with the vulnerability index (VI), considering the structural, functional, and chemical factors in the infrastructure, including exposure levels. By means of a risk matrix, it was determined that gasoline storage tanks have a moderate chemical risk, since exposure to the extreme wind wave hazard is low, and diesel tanks are at low risk. These assessments are important elements to consider in the expansion plans for the Port of Veracruz.
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Glantz, Michael H., and Gregory E. Pierce. "Forecast Hesitancy: Why are People Reluctant to Believe, Accept, or Respond to Various Weather, Water, and Climate Hazard-Related Forecasts?" International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 12, no. 4 (May 26, 2021): 600–609. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00353-7.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
AbstractCurrent discussions of the social phenomenon of “vaccine hesitancy” with regard to Covid-19 provide an opportunity to use hesitancy as a means to shift thinking about untimely and delayed responses to forecasts of hydrometeorological hazards. Hesitancy, that is, provides a paradigm through which such regrettably delayed responses to hydromet hazards might be better understood and effectively addressed. Without exaggeration, just about every hydromet event provides an example of how hesitancy hinders individual, community, and national government risk-reducing preventive and mitigative responses to forecasts of foreseeable, relatively near-term climate, water, or weather hazards. Reasons for such hesitancy (for vaccine and forecast use alike) include—among others—lack of trust in the science, lack of confidence in government, and persistent concern about the uncertainties that surround forecasting—both meteorological and public health. As such, a better understanding of the causes that lead to individual and group hesitancy can better inform hydromet forecasters and affected communities about ways in which beneficial actions in response to timely forecasts are often delayed. This better understanding will facilitate, where necessary, targeted interventions to enhance the societal value of forecasting by reducing this long-observed challenge of “forecast hesitancy.” First, this article focuses on incidents of “vaccine hesitancy” that, for various reasons, people around the world are even now experiencing with regard to several now-available, and confirmed efficacious, Covid-19 vaccines. Reports of such incidents of indecisiveness first increased dramatically over the first few months of 2021, despite the strong scientific confidence that vaccination would significantly lower personal risk of contracting as well as spreading the virus. After, the notion of forecast hesitancy with regard to hydrometeorological hazards is discussed.It’s not what you say, it’s what people hear.-Frank Luntz (2007)
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Efstratiadis, Andreas, Panagiotis Dimas, George Pouliasis, Ioannis Tsoukalas, Panagiotis Kossieris, Vasilis Bellos, Georgia-Konstantina Sakki, Christos Makropoulos, and Spyridon Michas. "Revisiting Flood Hazard Assessment Practices under a Hybrid Stochastic Simulation Framework." Water 14, no. 3 (February 2, 2022): 457. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14030457.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
We propose a novel probabilistic approach to flood hazard assessment, aiming to address the major shortcomings of everyday deterministic engineering practices in a computationally efficient manner. In this context, the principal sources of uncertainty are defined across the overall modeling procedure, namely, the statistical uncertainty of inferring annual rainfall maxima through distribution models that are fitted to empirical data, and the inherently stochastic nature of the underlying hydrometeorological and hydrodynamic processes. Our work focuses on three key facets, i.e., the temporal profile of storm events, the dependence of flood generation mechanisms on antecedent soil moisture conditions, and the dependence of runoff propagation over the terrain and the stream network on the intensity of the flood event. These are addressed through the implementation of a series of cascade modules, based on publicly available and open-source software. Moreover, the hydrodynamic processes are simulated by a hybrid 1D/2D modeling approach, which offers a good compromise between computational efficiency and accuracy. The proposed framework enables the estimation of the uncertainty of all flood-related quantities, by means of empirically derived quantiles for given return periods. Lastly, a set of easily applicable flood hazard metrics are introduced for the quantification of flood hazard.
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Llasat, M. C., L. López, M. Barnolas, and M. Llasat-Botija. "Flash-floods in Catalonia: the social perception in a context of changing vulnerability." Advances in Geosciences 17 (July 29, 2008): 63–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-17-63-2008.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. In assessing a flood event two risk components need to be considered: the intrinsic hazard of the hydrometeorological event causing the flood and the vulnerability of the area where the precipitation has been registered. In the present study four flood events selected by the FLASH European project have been classified according to the characteristics of the meteorological event (classification according to hazard) and according to the physical and economic damages caused (classification according to vulnerability). The social impact of these events is analysed taking into account the growth of the population. An increase in the number of extraordinary flash-floods was detected in the areas with a major growth of the population, as a consequence of an increased vulnerability of these areas, both from a physical perspective (exposure of infrastructures) and from an economic perspective (more goods exposed). In addition, the numerous non-native inhabitants of the region are not aware of the meteorological risks characteristic of the area, and this contributes to increased social vulnerability.
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Fatmawati, D., E. A. Nurdin, E. I. Pangastuti, F. A. Kurnianto, and Y. Yushardi. "Analysis of Landslide Disaster at the Quaternary Volcanic Landform." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 975, no. 1 (January 1, 2022): 012012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/975/1/012012.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Indonesia as a country that has two seasons, namely the rainy and dry seasons, making it vulnerable to natural disasters such as hydrometeorological disasters where disasters occur due to conditions and weather such as landslides. This study aims to analyze the vulnerability of landslides and it relationship with the quaternary volcanic landform in Gandusari District, Blitar Regency. The method used is quantitative with a scoring that refers to the estimation model of Puslittanak, 2004 with parameters that consist of rainfall, geology, slope, land cover, and soil type. After getting the results of the landslide hazard map, validation was carried out with interviews and then the map results will also be analyzed with the condition of population density in Gandusari District, Blitar Regency. The results showed that landslide hazard classes are divided into three classes, namely high, medium, and low. Population densities in several locations are found in areas of high soil susceptibility so that efforts are needed to reduce population density, especially in mountainous slope areas.
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Tylkowski, Jacek, Marcin Winowski, Marcin Hojan, Paweł Czyryca, and Mariusz Samołyk. "Influence of hydrometeorological hazards and sea coast morphodynamics on development of <i>Cephalanthero</i> <i>rubrae-Fagetum</i> (Wolin island, the southern Baltic Sea)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 1 (January 28, 2021): 363–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-363-2021.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Climate changes, sea transgression and sea coast erosion observed today cause dynamic changes in coastal ecosystems. In the elaboration, cause and effect interrelations between abiotic hazards (hydrometeorological conditions and sea coast morphodynamics) and biotic (Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum phytocoenosis) components of natural environment have been defined. An up-to-date phytosociological analysis of a very valuable Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum site on cliff tableland was conducted in the context of hitherto temporal variability of climatic conditions and the rate of cliff coast recession. Also, the development prognosis of the researched site in the 21st century is provided, with respect to the expected climate changes and cliff's morphodynamics. The conducted research actions revealed the influence of global hazards (e.g. climate changes, sea transgression and sea coast erosion) on changes in the natural environment on regional scale (with the example of the site of Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum on a cliff coast of Wolin island in Poland). It has been established that in the 21st century, a relatively larger hazard to the functioning of the researched site is climate changes (i.e. mostly changes in thermal and precipitation conditions) not the sea coast erosion.
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Wilopo, Wilopo, Poetika Puspasari, Sobar Sutisna, Syamsul Maarif, and I. Dewa Ketut Kerta Widana. "Socio-Geospatial Characteristic of Communities Affected by Contemporary Hydrometeorological Disaster During The Covid-19 Pandemic in Cimanggung Sub-District, Sumedang District, West Java Province." Technium Social Sciences Journal 29 (March 9, 2022): 523–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.47577/tssj.v29i1.6137.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Hydrometeorological disasters has dominated the list of disasters in Indonesia in recent years. Cimanggung Sub-District in Sumedang District which located in West Java Province is one of the areas experiencing hydrometeorological disasters, namely landslides and floods in January 2021. This disaster event is an example of an interesting phenomenon to conduct innovative research in the context of disaster management that occurred in the Covid-19 pandemic era. Thus, this research aims to analyze the socio-geospatial characteristics of the affected community so that it can explore the level of survival capacity of the community affected by the contemporary hydrometeorological disaster through the identification of its socio-geospatial characteristics in Cimanggung Sub-District, Sumedang District. This study uses an exploratory survey method for social and geospatial parameters and will be analyzed quantitative qualitative sequential with the GIS-Overlay technique based on observation data and field surveys and the results of interviews with affected communities. The results showed that: 1). The characteristics possessed by the people of Cimanggung Sub-District and the landslide disaster during the Covid-19 pandemic that occurred influenced each other both positively and negatively; 2). Geospatial characteristics in Cimanggung Sub-District basically place the local community's livelihood at risk of landslide hazard; and 3). Landslides and floods during the Covid-19 pandemic that occurred in Cimanggung Sub-Distruct had a domino impact on the community which greatly affected the dimensions of human security. Morphological conditions affect the characteristics of people who have community attachment to fellow communities and their environment. However, this characteristic is also an obstacle in the housing relocation process that will be carried out by the government. On the other hand, the community attachment has the nature of mutual cooperation helps the disaster emergency response process so that it is carried out more effectively.
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Yang, Quntao, Shuliang Zhang, Qiang Dai, and Rui Yao. "Assessment of Community Vulnerability to Different Types of Urban Floods: A Case for Lishui City, China." Sustainability 12, no. 19 (September 23, 2020): 7865. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12197865.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Urban flooding is a severe and pervasive hazard caused by climate change, urbanization, and limitations of municipal drainage systems. Cities face risks from different types of floods, depending on various geographical, environmental, and hydrometeorological conditions. In response to the growing threat of urban flooding, a better understanding of urban flood vulnerability is needed. In this study, a comprehensive method was developed to evaluate the vulnerability of different types of urban floods. First, a coupled urban flood model was built to obtain the extent of influence of various flood scenarios caused by rainfall and river levee overtopping. Second, an assessment framework for urban flood vulnerability based on an indicator method was used to evaluate the vulnerability in different flood hazard scenarios. Finally, the method was applied to Lishui City, China, and the distribution and pattern of urban flood vulnerability were studied. The results highlight the spatial variability of flooding and the vulnerability distributions of different types of urban floods. Compound floods were identified to cause more severe effects in the urban areas.
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Mužíková, Bronislava, Vítězslav Vlček, and Tomáš Středa. "Tendencies of climatic extremes occurrence in different Moravian regions and landscape types." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 59, no. 5 (2011): 169–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201159050169.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In this study present frequency of several characteristic days as tropical, summer, arctic, frost and ice days and also length of heat waves was compared with modelled future occurrence of these climate extreme indices. Climate-diagrams were used for drought hazard assessment. The main objective of our research was to detect possible changes of frequency of the extreme events toward future. Data from four localities in the Czech Republic (Moravia) were chosen for the evaluation. Each locality represents different climatic, landscape and settlement conditions. Localities are represented by the closest grid points. Future trend was modelled for scenario data (scenario A1B) by regional model ALADIN-Climate/CZ in the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The results showed obvious rising tendency of tropical and summer days frequency on all localities, especially in lowland regions. Very strong decreasing trend seemed to be in occurrence of arctic days, which might be very scarce in the future. Frost days and ice days should also decrease. Increase in number of days in heat wave was considerable. Climate-diagrams showed possible rising drought hazard for all localities towards future periods.
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Basuki, Y., and Widjonarko. "Hydrometeorological hazard prediction in the kuto bodri river region central java based on normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi) analysis." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 683, no. 1 (March 1, 2021): 012098. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/683/1/012098.
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Janeček, Miloslav, Vít Květoň, Eliška Kubátová, Dominika Kobzová, Michaela Vošmerová, and Jana Chlupsová. "Values of rainfall erosivity factor for the Czech Republic." Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics 61, no. 2 (June 1, 2013): 97–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/johh-2013-0013.
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Abstract The processing of ombrographic data from 29 meteorological stations of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), according to the terms of the Universal Soil Loss Equation for calculating long term loss of soil through water erosion, erosion hazard rains and their occurrence have been selected, with their relative amount and erosiveness - R-Factors determined for each month and years. By comparing the value of the time division of the R-Factor in the area of the Czech Republic and in selected areas of the USA it has been demonstrated that this division may be applied in the conditions of the Czech Republic. For the Czech Republic it is recommended to use the average value R = 40 based on the original evaluation.
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Sutanto, Samuel J., Melati van der Weert, Veit Blauhut, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen. "Skill of large-scale seasonal drought impact forecasts." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 6 (June 4, 2020): 1595–608. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1595-2020.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Forecasting of drought impacts is still lacking in drought early-warning systems (DEWSs), which presently do not go beyond hazard forecasting. Therefore, we developed drought impact functions using machine learning approaches (logistic regression and random forest) to predict drought impacts with lead times up to 7 months ahead. The observed and forecasted hydrometeorological drought hazards – such as the standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), and standardized runoff index (SRI) – were obtained from the The EU-funded Enhancing Emergency Management and Response to Extreme Weather and Climate Events (ANYWHERE) DEWS. Reported drought impact data, taken from the European Drought Impact Report Inventory (EDII), were used to develop and validate drought impact functions. The skill of the drought impact functions in forecasting drought impacts was evaluated using the Brier skill score and relative operating characteristic metrics for five cases representing different spatial aggregation and lumping of impacted sectors. Results show that hydrological drought hazard represented by SRI has higher skill than meteorological drought represented by SPI and SPEI. For German regions, impact functions developed using random forests indicate a higher discriminative ability to forecast drought impacts than logistic regression. Moreover, skill is higher for cases with higher spatial resolution and less lumped impacted sectors (cases 4 and 5), with considerable skill up to 3–4 months ahead. The forecasting skill of drought impacts using machine learning greatly depends on the availability of impact data. This study demonstrates that the drought impact functions could not be developed for certain regions and impacted sectors, owing to the lack of reported impacts.
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Hidayati, Sri. "Classification of Drought Impact by Drought Vulnerability Indicators in Probolinggo Regrency Using Naive Bayes." Internasional Journal of Data Science, Engineering, and Anaylitics 2, no. 1 (May 28, 2022): 74–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.33005/ijdasea.v2i1.31.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Drought in Probolinggo is a big problem because most of the people in this work as farmers. Drought is a natural phenomenon, difficult to define due to differences in hydrometeorological variables and socio economic factors along with the stochastic nature of water demand in various regions. Resident vulnerability to drought hazard is varie. Vulnerability can be measured using vulnerability indicators such as economic factors, social factors, and ecological factors. This research used several vulnerability indicators to classified the impact of drought in three villages in Probolinggo Regency (Sumberkare, Tandonsentul, and Tegalsono). The classification method used in this research is Naïve Bayes. The 10-fold cross validation method was used to train the developed predictive model and the performance of the models evaluated. The accuracy of drought impact by the naive bayes is 85,90 %. Naïve Bayes classifier classify indicators of the impact of drought accurately.
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Tijdeman, Erik, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl. "Different drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristics." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 6 (June 23, 2022): 2099–116. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Droughts often have a severe impact on the environment, society, and the economy. The variables and scales that are relevant to understand the impact of drought motivated this study, which compared hazard and propagation characteristics, as well as impacts, of major droughts between 1990 and 2019 in southwestern Germany. We bring together high-resolution datasets of air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture simulations, and streamflow and groundwater level observations, as well as text-based information on drought impacts. Various drought characteristics were derived from the hydrometeorological and drought impact time series and compared across variables and spatial scales. Results revealed different drought types sharing similar hazard and impact characteristics. The most severe drought type identified is an intense multi-seasonal drought type peaking in summer, i.e., the events in 2003, 2015, and 2018. This drought type appeared in all domains of the hydrological cycle and coincided with high air temperatures, causing a high number of and variability in drought impacts. The regional average drought signals of this drought type exhibit typical drought propagation characteristics such as a time lag between meteorological and hydrological drought, whereas propagation characteristics of local drought signals are variable in space. This spatial variability in drought hazard increased when droughts propagated through the hydrological cycle, causing distinct differences among variables, as well as regional average and local drought information. Accordingly, single variable or regional average drought information is not sufficient to fully explain the variety of drought impacts that occurred, supporting the conclusion that in regions as diverse as the case study presented here, large-scale drought monitoring needs to be complemented by local drought information to assess the multifaceted impact of drought.
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Jubach, Robert, and A. Tokar. "International Severe Weather and Flash Flood Hazard Early Warning Systems—Leveraging Coordination, Cooperation, and Partnerships through a Hydrometeorological Project in Southern Africa." Water 8, no. 6 (June 20, 2016): 258. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w8060258.
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Mujib, Muhammad Asyroful, Bejo Apriyanto, Fahmi Arif Kurnianto, Fahrudi Ahwan Ikhsan, Elan Artono Nurdin, Era Iswara Pangastuti, and Sri Astutik. "Assessment of Flood Hazard Mapping Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and GIS: Application in Kencong District, Jember Regency, Indonesia." Geosfera Indonesia 6, no. 3 (December 22, 2021): 353. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/geosi.v6i3.21668.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Flood is one of the most frequent hydrometeorological disasters which leads in economic losses. The first step in flood disaster mitigation efforts is mapping vulnerable areas. Kencong District frequently affected by the annual flooding event. This study aims to assess flood hazard mapping by integrating the AHP method and Geographic Information System. This study used a descriptive quantitative approach through the correlation matrix of the AHP model for each physical environmental factor. These factors include slope, altitude, distance from the river, soil type, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), and Curvature. Furthermore, with the Geographic Information System (GIS), the weighted overlay stage was carried out to obtain the results of flood-prone areas. Based on the AHP analysis, the most significant factors in determining flood-prone areas were the distance from rivers, slopes, and TWI. The results of flood-prone areas mapping were divided into five classes: from deficient 0.02%, low 4.26%, medium 37.11%, high 51.89%, and very high 6.72%. Validation of GIS mapping results with data in the field has an AUC value of 84%, which indicates that the prediction of the AHP-GIS model is perfect in flood-prone areas mapping in the Kencong District. The integration of AHP method and Geographic Information System in flood hazard assessment were able to produce a model to evaluate the spatial distribution of flood-prone areas.
Keywords : Flood Hazard Mapping; Multi-criteria decision analysis; AHP Model; GIS; Jember
Copyright (c) 2021 Geosfera Indonesia and Department of Geography Education, University of Jember
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share A like 4.0 International License
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Satake, Kenji, and Yujiro Ogawa. "Special Issue on Multi-disciplinary Hazard Reduction from Earthquakes and Volcanoes in Indonesia." Journal of Disaster Research 7, no. 1 (January 1, 2012): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2012.p0003.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Natural disasters and their mitigation are global issues, especially in Asian countries, which have suffered from such geohazards as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions and such hydrometeorological hazards as typhoons, cyclones, storm surges, and floods. Research on natural hazards and disasters is multidisciplinary. Scientists from a wide variety of disciplines study hazards, their causes, their mechanisms, and prediction. Engineers study infrastructures and measures to reduce vulnerability. Social and humanitarian scientists study cultural and societal aspects of disasters. Educators study effective ways to raise people’s awareness and action. In addition to such research activities, practitioners work to implement the results of scientific research into practical policymaking. This special issue of JDR contains 12 papers on multidisciplinary studies concerning geohazards in Indonesia taken from a Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) project supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). SATREPS projects focus on both the scientific aspect, namely, acquiring new knowledge, and the Official Development Aids (ODA) aspect, namely, implementing such knowledge in societal applications. Following the first review article, which is a project overview, the next four papers report findings on natural hazards – the slip rate on the Lembang fault in Java, tsunami simulation for Java’s Palabuhanratu, the Sinabung volcano eruption in Sumatra, and methods of predicting and evaluating eruptions. One paper reports engineering studies on tsunami disaster mitigation in Padang city and two social science papers present hazards in the contexts of communities and human mobility. Two papers on disaster education cover disaster education development since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the use of tsunami simulation in disaster education. The last research paper and review article deal with policymaking related to the 2010 Mentawai and 2011 Japan tsunamis, respectively. All of these papers, including the review articles, have been peer-reviewed by two nonproject reviewers. We thank the authors for their timely contributions and revisions, and the reviewers for their invaluable and wide-ranging comments.
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Marín-Monroy, Elvia Aida, Victor Hernández-Trejo, Miguel Angel Ojeda-Ruiz de la Peña, Eleonora Romero-Vadillo, and Antonina Ivanova-Boncheva. "Perceptions and Consequences of Socioenvironmental Vulnerability Due to Tropical Cyclones in Los Cabos, Mexico." Sustainability 13, no. 12 (June 16, 2021): 6787. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13126787.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Climate change has resulted in severe consequences of hydrometeorological phenomena. The municipality of Los Cabos, Mexico, has been the most affected in the state of Baja California Sur by these hazards due to its location on the southern tip of the peninsula, being exposed with approximately 192 km of coastline; it is an environmental heritage that has made the area a primary tourist attraction in Mexico, which has caused a rapid growth in population with little knowledge about cyclone activity. In addition, there is limited knowledge regarding social indicators that measure vulnerability due to tropical cyclones. Based on the above, the objective of this study was to capture community perceptions about vulnerability related to tropical cyclones and to compare the results with real impacts and their index of socioenvironmental vulnerability, which includes indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, to provide useful information to form strategies to mitigate risk. Data were collected through a questionnaire-survey in 335 randomly selected households; we applied a probability model to the perception analysis and calculated an index to categorize vulnerability. We found differences between perceptions and real affectations, with 64% of households categorized as being highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones, and we detected a lower perception about damage suffered to their households. The variables related to knowledge and local or foreigner status were predictors of vulnerability perception. We included georeferenced data on flooding hazard maps as a strategy for adaptation.
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Harrison, Sara E., Sally H. Potter, Raj Prasanna, Emma E. H. Doyle, and David Johnston. "‘Sharing is caring’: A socio-technical analysis of the sharing and governing of hydrometeorological hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure data in Aotearoa New Zealand." Progress in Disaster Science 13 (January 2022): 100213. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2021.100213.
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Viviroli, Daniel, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, et al. "Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 9 (September 2, 2022): 2891–920. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Estimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative approach that better links flood estimation with physical processes and avoids assumptions about antecedent conditions. However, long-term CS has hardly been implemented to estimate rare floods (i.e. return periods considerably larger than 100 years) at multiple sites in a large river basin to date. Here we explore the feasibility and reliability of the CS approach for 19 sites in the Aare River basin in Switzerland (area: 17 700 km2) with exceedingly long simulations in a hydrometeorological model chain. The chain starts with a multi-site stochastic weather generator used to generate 30 realizations of hourly precipitation and temperature scenarios of 10 000 years each. These realizations were then run through a bucket-type hydrological model for 80 sub-catchments and finally routed downstream with a simplified representation of main river channels, major lakes and relevant floodplains in a hydrologic routing system. Comprehensive evaluation over different temporal and spatial scales showed that the main features of the meteorological and hydrological observations are well represented and that meaningful information on low-probability floods can be inferred. Although uncertainties are still considerable, the explicit consideration of important processes of flood generation and routing (snow accumulation, snowmelt, soil moisture storage, bank overflow, lake and floodplain retention) is a substantial advantage. The approach allows for comprehensively exploring possible but unobserved spatial and temporal patterns of hydrometeorological behaviour. This is of particular value in a large river basin where the complex interaction of flows from individual tributaries and lake regulations are typically not well represented in the streamflow observations. The framework is also suitable for estimating more frequent floods, as often required in engineering and hazard mapping.
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Hoyos, Carlos D., Lina I. Ceballos, Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla, Julián Sepúlveda, Silvana M. López-Zapata, Manuel D. Zuluaga, Nicolás Velásquez, et al. "Meteorological conditions leading to the 2015 Salgar flash flood: lessons for vulnerable regions in tropical complex terrain." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 19, no. 11 (November 25, 2019): 2635–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2635-2019.
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Abstract. Flash floods are a recurrent hazard for many developing Latin American regions due to their complex mountainous terrain and the rainfall characteristics in the tropics. These regions often lack the timely and high-quality information needed to assess, in real time, the threats to the vulnerable communities due to extreme hydrometeorological events. The systematic assessment of past extreme events allows us to improve our prediction capabilities of flash floods. In May 2015, a flash flood in the La Liboriana basin, municipality of Salgar, Colombia, caused more than 100 casualties and significant infrastructure damage. Despite the data scarcity, the climatological aspects, meteorological conditions, and first-order hydrometeorological mechanisms associated with the La Liboriana flash flood, including orographic intensification and the spatial distribution of the rainfall intensity relative to the basin's geomorphological features, are studied using precipitation information obtained using a weather radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) technique, as well as from satellite products, in situ rain gauges from neighboring basins, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from an operational Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) application, and data from reanalysis products. The La Liboriana flash flood took place during a period with negative precipitation anomalies over most of the country as a result of an El Niño event. However, during May 2015, moist easterly flow towards the upper part of La Liboriana caused significant orographic rainfall enhancement. The overall evidence shows an important role of successive precipitation events in a relatively short period and of orography in the spatial distribution of rainfall and its intensification as convective cores approached the steepest topography. There were three consecutive events generating significant rainfall within the La Liboriana basin, and no single precipitation event was exceptionally large enough to generate the flash flood, but rather the combined role of precedent rainfall and the extreme hourly precipitation triggered the event. The results point to key lessons for improving local risk reduction strategies in vulnerable regions with complex terrain.
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Potter, Sally, Sara Harrison, and Peter Kreft. "The Benefits and Challenges of Implementing Impact-Based Severe Weather Warning Systems: Perspectives of Weather, Flood, and Emergency Management Personnel." Weather, Climate, and Society 13, no. 2 (April 2021): 303–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-20-0110.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
AbstractWarnings about impending hazards help to minimize the impacts and reduce the risk of the hazard through encouraging an appropriate and timely behavioral response. Many hydrometeorological agencies are moving toward impact-based forecast and warning (IBFW) systems, as encouraged by the World Meteorological Organization. Yet little research has been conducted on such systems from the perspectives of agencies who are or would be involved in their implementation. We investigated the challenges and benefits of IBFW systems as perceived by participants from agencies internationally and within New Zealand. Interviews and workshops were held with meteorologists and weather forecasters, flood forecasters and hydrologists, and emergency managers. We found that the benefits of implementing IBFW systems included a perceived increase in the understanding of the potential impacts by the public, added awareness of antecedent conditions by forecasters, a possible reduction in “false alarms,” and increased interagency communication. Challenges identified by the participants included whether the system should be designed for individuals or society, a lack of impact data, verification of warnings based on impacts, a conflict with roles and responsibilities, the potential for conflicting messages, and the increased burden on agencies providing information to forecasters with a perception of little benefit in return. We argue that IBFWs could be designed for individual members of the public, with an increased focus on understanding vulnerability and capacities, and that more impact data need to be collected and stored to inform future warnings. Increased interagency coordination would assist with rapid decision-making and the success of IBFWs.
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Poggetti, Emilio, Corrado Cencetti, Pierluigi De Rosa, Andrea Fredduzzi, and Felipe Raphael Rivelli. "Sediment Supply and Hydrogeological Hazard in the Quebrada De Humahuaca (Province of Jujuy, Northwestern Argentina)—Rio Huasamayo and Tilcara Area." Geosciences 9, no. 11 (November 16, 2019): 483. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9110483.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This paper describes the hydrogeological hazard in a reach of Quebrada de Humahuaca, (Upper Valley of Rio Grande de Jujuy, in the Argentine Andes), elected a World Heritage Site by UNESCO in 2003. Along the Quebrada, the Rio Huasamayo, flowing into the Rio Grande, formed a large alluvial fan where the village of Tilcara was built. The final reach of Rio Huasamayo is an artificial channel, embanked by unconsolidated material removed from the riverbed. The village is located in an area at a lower elevation with respect to the riverbed, still in aggradation; so it is affected by an evident hydrogeological hazard. The main cause of the riverbed aggradation is the enormous sediment supply from the slopes of the Rio Huasamayo basin. The aim of the paper is to estimate the soil loss on the slopes and the consequent sediment supply to the main stream, identifying the areas of the basin mostly affected by erosion processes that cause the aggradation of the Rio Huasamayo riverbed. In this case, due to the lack of hydrometeorological stations (monitoring rainfalls, temperature, flow rates, etc.), soil loss and sediment supply to the main stream cannot be estimated through the application of commonly used models in the literature (e.g., USLE, RUSLE, USPED). Here the Gavrilovic method (EPM) was applied in combination with the data of the CORINE Project, allowing the estimation of the volume of material exiting from the catchment. So the main supplying areas (sub-basins of the Rio Huasamayo) can be identified where focused interventions for the control of solid transport could be realized, to mitigate the process of riverbed aggradation.
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Alexakis, D. D., M. G. Grillakis, A. G. Koutroulis, A. Agapiou, K. Themistocleous, I. K. Tsanis, S. Michaelides, et al. "GIS and remote sensing techniques for the assessment of land use change impact on flood hydrology: the case study of Yialias basin in Cyprus." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14, no. 2 (February 26, 2014): 413–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-413-2014.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Floods are one of the most common natural disasters worldwide, leading to economic losses and loss of human lives. This paper highlights the hydrological effects of multi-temporal land use changes in flood hazard within the Yialias catchment area, located in central Cyprus. A calibrated hydrological model was firstly developed to describe the hydrological processes and internal basin dynamics of the three major subbasins, in order to study the diachronic effects of land use changes. For the implementation of the hydrological model, land use, soil and hydrometeorological data were incorporated. The climatic and stream flow data were derived from rain and flow gauge stations located in the wider area of the watershed basin. In addition, the land use and soil data were extracted after the application of object-oriented nearest neighbor algorithms of ASTER satellite images. Subsequently, the cellular automata (CA)–Markov chain analysis was implemented to predict the 2020 land use/land cover (LULC) map and incorporate it to the hydrological impact assessment. The results denoted the increase of runoff in the catchment area due to the recorded extensive urban sprawl phenomenon of the last decade.
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Alexakis, D. D., M. G. Gryllakis, A. G. Koutroulis, A. Agapiou, K. Themistocleous, I. K. Tsanis, S. Michaelides, et al. "GIS and remote sensing techniques for the assessment of land use changes impact on flood hydrology: the case study of Yialias Basin in Cyprus." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 1, no. 5 (September 13, 2013): 4833–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-4833-2013.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Flooding is one of the most common natural disasters worldwide, leading to economic losses and loss of human lives. This paper highlights the hydrological effects of multi-temporal land use changes in flood hazard within the Yialias catchment area, located in central Cyprus. Calibrated hydrological and hydraulic models were used to describe the hydrological processes and internal basin dynamics of the three major sub-basins, in order to study the diachronic effects of land use changes. For the implementation of the hydrological model, land use, soil and hydrometeorological data were incorporated. The climatic and stream flow data were derived from rain and flow gauge stations located in the wider area of the watershed basin. In addition, the land use and soil data were extracted after the application of object oriented nearest neighbor algorithms of ASTER satellite images. Subsequently, the CA-Markov chain analysis was implemented to predict the 2020 Land use/Land cover (LULC) map and incorporate it to the hydrological impact assessment. The results denoted the increase of runoff in the catchment area due to the recorded extensive urban sprawl phenomenon of the last decade.
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Tao, J., and A. P. Barros. "Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 10, no. 7 (July 2, 2013): 8365–419. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-8365-2013.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are strongly modulated by the topography and catchment specific geomorphologic features that determine subsurface flow convergence zones. The three case-studies demonstrate the value of coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation potential in the context of developing a regional hazard warning system.
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Asmara, Linggar Y., Saut Sagala, Danang Azhari, and Elisabeth Rianawati. "Public risk perception and public acceptance of the existing flood and drought mitigation measure in Bandung city." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 986, no. 1 (February 1, 2022): 012044. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/986/1/012044.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Flood and drought are hydrometeorological hazard that annually occurred in Bandung City. This problem occurs due to static natural conditions such as geographical, topographical conditions, as well as dynamic natural conditions such as climatological matters that are exacerbated by climate change and human activities. Flood and drought risk management in urban areas generally emphasizes physical development by ignoring various social dimensions. Therefore, this research aims to understand people’s knowledge and attitudes towards disasters, represented by the public risk perception towards flooding and drought, as well as public acceptance of the existing programs that have been provided by the municipality. To identify public risk perception and their acceptance of existing programs use statistical descriptive methods. While the data collection use questionnaire with 99 samples. This research shows the affected communities can assess the risks, emotion, and expectation for the future risk, and the implemented program by municipality is mostly accepted by the community. Public risk perception and public acceptance of a program are prominent factors that determine the success or failure of a program by ensuring the compatibility of the program and the community. Thus, this research is critical to give the public perspective on implementing a community-based disaster mitigation program.
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Habibi, Suyudi, Arif Pribadi, and Jessica Sitorus. "The concept design for adaptation of climate change through integrated and sustainable flood infrastructure in the coastal area of Pekalongan, Indonesia." Geographica Pannonica 25, no. 2 (2021): 121–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/gp25-30852.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The coastal area of Pekalongan, especially the estuary area of the Banger River, Loji River, and Gabus River, are often experiencing to tidal floods. Tidal Floods that occur pose a great risk due to the sedimentation of river mouths and floods from the watershed to the coastal area of Pekalongan. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on flood frequency patterns and the contribution of each sub-watershed to the total discharge that occurs, as well as to analyze the effect of increasing sea level that occurs in the coastal area of Pekalongan. The method used in this research hydro-meteorological, hydraulic, and hydrodynamics two-dimensional analysis. The results showed that the climate change that occurred in the coastal area of Pekalongan was indicated by an increase in the average temperature of about 1o Celsius and the trend towards maximum yearly precipitationthat occurred during a period of twenty years had increased (2000-2019 period). An Increasing temperature that occurs has a significant risk to sea-level rise and increasing uncertainty hydrometeorological hazard (tidal flooding). Recommendations from this study are structuring the drainage system based on an integrated landscape arrangement concept to improve the economy, tourism, social, and environment to achieve sustainable coastal infrastructure.
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Chow, Winston T. L., Brendan D. Cheong, and Beatrice H. Ho. "A Multimethod Approach towards Assessing Urban Flood Patterns and Its Associated Vulnerabilities in Singapore." Advances in Meteorology 2016 (2016): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7159132.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
We investigated flooding patterns in the urbanised city-state of Singapore through a multimethod approach combining station precipitation data with archival newspaper and governmental records; changes in flash floods frequencies or reported impacts of floods towards Singapore society were documented. We subsequently discussed potential flooding impacts in the context of urban vulnerability, based on future urbanisation and forecasted precipitation projections for Singapore. We find that, despite effective flood management, (i) significant increases in reported flash flood frequency occurred in contemporary (post-2000) relative to preceding (1984–1999) periods, (ii) these flash floods coincide with more localised, “patchy” storm events, (iii) storms in recent years are also more intense and frequent, and (iv) floods result in low human casualties but have high economic costs via insurance damage claims. We assess that Singapore presently has low vulnerability to floods vis-à-vis other regional cities largely due to holistic flood management via consistent and successful infrastructural development, widespread flood monitoring, and effective advisory platforms. We conclude, however, that future vulnerabilities may increase from stresses arising from physical exposure to climate change and from demographic sensitivity via rapid population growth. Anticipating these changes is potentially useful in maintaining the high resilience of Singapore towards this hydrometeorological hazard.