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Статті в журналах з теми "Household microsimulation"
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Walker, Joan L. "Making Household Microsimulation of Travel and Activities Accessible to Planners." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1931, no. 1 (January 2005): 38–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198105193100105.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
There is a large gap between the aggregate, trip-based models used by transportation planning agencies and the activity-based, microsimulation methods espoused by those at the forefront of research. The modeling environment presented here is intended to bridge this gap by providing a palatable way for planning agencies to move toward advanced methods. Three components to bridging the gap are emphasized: an incremental approach, a demonstration of clear gains, and a provision of an environment that eases initial implementation and allows for expansion. The modeling environment (called STEP2) is a household microsimulator, developed in TransCAD, that can be used to implement a four-step model as well as models with longer-term behavior and trip chaining. An implementation for southern Nevada is described, and comparisons are made with the region's aggregate four-step model. The models perform similarly in numerous ways. A key advantage to the microsimulator is that it provides impacts by socioeconomic group (essential for equity analysis) and individual trip movements (for use in a vehicle microsimulator). A sensitivity analysis indicates that the microsimulation model has less inelastic cross elasticity of transit demand with respect to auto travel times than the aggregate model (aggregation error). The trade-off is that microsimulators have simulation error; results are presented regarding the severity of this error. This work shows that a shift to microsimulation does not necessarily require substantial investment to achieve many of the benefits. One of the greatest advantages is a flexible environment that can expand to include additional sensitivity to demographics and transportation policy variables.
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Addabbo, Tindara, Rosa María García-Fernández, Carmen María Llorca-Rodríguez, and Anna Maccagnan. "A microsimulation model to measure the impact of the economic crisis on household income." International Journal of Manpower 37, no. 3 (June 6, 2016): 474–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijm-06-2014-0125.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Purpose – The current economic crisis has significantly increased unemployment, showing higher persistence than expected. However, since microdata from household surveys are issued with delay, they do not allow a prompt analysis of the impact of the economic cycle on households’ living conditions. The purpose of this paper is to propose a microsimulation methodology to achieve an evaluation of the impact of economic shocks in terms of household’s living conditions to guide policy makers. Design/methodology/approach – The microsimulation technique developed in this paper is based on a nowcasting approach by using different sources of data and by taking into account a whole set of potential transitions across the different statuses of the labour market and the related changes in income. To validate this microsimulation method, the authors apply it to Italy, a country that has been deeply affected by the crisis. Findings – Data have been drawn from the European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions Survey for Italy (IT SILC) and from the Labour Force Survey for Italy. The latter data allow us to take into account the changes in the labour market status of individuals due to economic shocks. The validation results support the capability of the model to simulate the effect of the cycle before actual data on income are available. Social implications – The results obtained would encourage the use of the suggested methodology to anticipate the effect of the economic cycle on household’s income therefore enabling the design of effective policies to sustain household income with positive practical and social implications. Originality/value – Distinct from other microsimulation techniques the methodology proposed in this paper allows us to take into account behavioural effects and the change in the composition of employment and unemployment. Moreover, the authors contribute to the existing literature by considering a whole set of transitions across different labour market statuses and the related changes in income.
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Denisova, Irina, and Nikita Varioshkin. "The impact of foreign trade shocks on well-being of Russian households: Microsimulation approach." Applied Econometrics 68, no. 4 (2022): 73–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2022-68-73-92.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In recent years, there have been significant fluctuations in world prices for essential goods, many of which have a significant share in the consumption basket of households. In this study, we analyze how fluctuations in world wheat prices affect the well‐being of Russian households. We provide estimates of average welfare losses and of welfare losses in different parts of welfare distribution. We also identify which socio‐demographic groups bear the brunt of such price shocks. For evaluation, a micro‐ simulation approach to model the expenditure part of household budgets is used. The empirical basis is the data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) for 2020. When modeling a 50% rise in prices for bread, flour and pasta, the average losses amounted to 2.9% of total household expenditures, the largest losses, 5.5% of total expenditures, fall on households in the first decile. Those living in rural areas or urban‐type settlements, as well as households headed by a female pensioner, suffer losses at the level of 3% of total household expenses. Families with children are not among the most vulnerable groups with rising prices for bread, flour and pasta.
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Amarante, Veronica. "Inequality and Household Size: A Microsimulation for Uruguay." International Journal of Microsimulation 10, no. 1 (2016): 73–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00150.
Повний текст джерела
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Cova, Thomas J., and Justin P. Johnson. "Microsimulation of Neighborhood Evacuations in the Urban–Wildland Interface." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 34, no. 12 (December 2002): 2211–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a34251.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Residential development in fire-prone wildlands is occurring at an unprecedented rate. Community-based evacuation planning in many areas is an emerging need. In this paper we present a method for using microscopic traffic simulation to develop and test neighborhood evacuation plans in the urban–wildland interface. The method allows an analyst to map the subneighborhood variation in household evacuation travel times under various scenarios. A custom scenario generator manages household trip generation, departure timing, and destination choice. Traffic simulation, route choice, and dynamic visualization are handled by a commercial system. We present a case study for a controversial fire-prone canyon community east of Salt Lake City, Utah. GIS was used to map the spatial effects of a proposed second access road on household evacuation times. Our results indicate that the second road will reduce some household travel times much more than others, but all evacuation travel times will become more consistent.
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Rogers, Susan M., James Rineer, Matthew D. Scruggs, William D. Wheaton, Phillip C. Cooley, Douglas J. Roberts, and Diane K. Wagener. "A Geospatial Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Household Population Projections." International Journal of Microsimulation 7, no. 2 (2013): 119–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00102.
Повний текст джерела
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Zhou, Bin (Brenda), and Kara M. Kockelman. "Microsimulation of Residential Land Development and Household Location Choices." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2077, no. 1 (January 2008): 106–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2077-14.
Повний текст джерела
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Salanauskaitė, Lina, and Gerlinde Verbist. "Family Benefit Reform in Lithuania: Microsimulation of Its Distributional Impacts." Lietuvos statistikos darbai 52, no. 1 (December 20, 2013): 58–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2013.13925.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The paper explores to what extent the Lithuanian family benefit system is able to reduce inequality and poverty among families with children, with poverty reduction being one of the major aims. Family benefits underwent a major reform in2004, which entailed a shift from means-tested benefits to a more universal system. Due to budget constraints, the implementation of the full reform design has been postponed until 2008. No distributional impact analysis of this reform, either of its initial or of its final designs, has been implemented yet. Furthermore, we analyse whether the gains from the newly designed system of family benefits are not outweighed by respective losses in social assistance benefits. To conduct such an analysis, we develop a partial static microsimulation model based on the EU-SILC (household income and living conditions) survey. The model is programmed in STATA statistical software. Our findings show that, despite small income improvements brought by the reform, its overall child poverty reduction effectiveness is limited. Moreover, the interaction of a family benefit with the social assistance system implies that some household types are relatively “bigger” winners compared to others. For example, our research reveals that single-parent households would obtain income gains comparable to those of large families only when the full reform scenario is implemented. If considering indirect effects (i.e. the loss of social assistance benefits), their relative gains become even smaller.
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Jahoda, Robert, and Jana Godarová. "Family policy in the Czech Republic: Redistribution of wealth through the child tax bonus." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 61, no. 7 (2013): 2213–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201361072213.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Families with children are traditionally the target group of the social system in developed countries. This paper deals with one component of family policy in the Czech Republic, which is household entitlement. The main focus is on the child tax bonus (hereafter CTB). The paper is divided into descriptive and methodological-analytical parts. The descriptive section provides basic information about the beneficiaries of CTB. In the latter section we formulate research questions about the impacts and effects of CTB. We discover that the influence of tax instruments has grown in recent years. The amount of the tax bonus for children exceeded CZK 3 billion in 2009, with almost 22% of all households with children eligible. Although CTB is income-tested, its redistributive impact is rather small – approximately 80% of recipients cannot be considered as poor. Outcomes from our microsimulation model reveal that 82 to 86% households with CTB were at the same time modelled as eligible and therefore we can use microsimulation techniques for future analyses of policy change.
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Graetz, Nick, Kevin Ummel, and Daniel Aldana Cohen. "Small-Area Analyses Using Public American Community Survey Data: A Tree-Based Spatial Microsimulation Technique." Sociological Methodology 52, no. 1 (December 16, 2021): 53–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/00811750211057572.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Quantitative sociologists and social policymakers are increasingly interested in local context. Some city-specific studies have developed new primary data collection efforts to analyze inequality at the neighborhood level, but methods from spatial microsimulation have yet to be broadly used in sociology to take better advantage of existing public data sets. The American Community Survey (ACS) is the largest household survey in the United States and indispensable for detailed analysis of specific places and populations. The authors propose a technique, tree-based spatial microsimulation, to produce “small-area” (census-tract) estimates of any person- or household-level phenomenon that can be derived from ACS microdata variables. The approach is straightforward and computationally efficient, based only on publicly available data, and it provides more reliable estimates than do prevailing methods of microsimulation. The authors demonstrate the technique’s capabilities by producing tract-level estimates, stratified by race/ethnicity, of (1) the proportion of people in the census-tract population who have children and work in an essential occupation and (2) the proportion of people in the census-tract population living below the federal poverty threshold and in a household that spends greater than 50 percent of monthly income on rent or owner costs. These examples are relevant to understanding the sociospatial inequalities dramatized by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The authors discuss potential extensions of the technique to derive small-area estimates of variables observed in surveys other than the ACS.
Дисертації з теми "Household microsimulation"
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McCormick, Ashley Warren. "A dynamic microsimulation of Scotland's household composition, 2001-2035." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.569261.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
A full, dynamic microsimulation of Scotland's household composition from 2001 to 2035 is given in this thesis. When projecting populations forward through time this particular method can be a powerful tool in explaining such change(s). Within this project the most systematic dynamic microsimulation of Scotland's household composition is given to date. The simulation process has been completed in conjunction with the General Register Office for Scotland and complements their household projection .methodology. By offering a current and systematic analysis of Scotland's demography, the project gives a platform for further understanding to the key influences and components of change to Scotland's past, present and future population and household composition. Amongst these key influences especial empirical analytic focus is given to relationship formation and dissolution and migration within Scotland. Results from the dynamic microsimulation provide a set of strong indicators to the distribution of demographic change in Scotland until 2035. It is important to note that this project has built a platform for further research into Scotland's population and household composition, which is also elaborated at the closing point of this thesis.
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Pacifico, Adrien. "Three Empirical Essays in French Household Taxation." Thesis, Paris, EHESS, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019EHES0085.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Cette thèse est constituée de trois chapitres qui concerne la taxation des ménages. Le premier chapitre étudie l'impact de la fréquence de l'impôt et plus particulièrement des gains en bien être lié au passage d'un système de taxation annuel à mensuel. Le second chapitre étudie les comportements d'optimisations fiscales des couples de concubins via l'allocation optimale des enfants sur les feuilles d'impôt. Le troisième chapitre vise à évaluer l'impact sur la base taxable du double abaissement de plafond du quotient familial qui a eu lieu en 2012 et en 2013This thesis is composed of three chapters which are linked to the taxation of households. The first chapter studies the welfare gains linked with the frequency of the tax, in particular, it studies the shift from an annual system to a monthly tax system. The third chapters aim at identifying behavioral reactions on the taxable income margin of rich households reacting to a french tax reform
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Berry, Audrey. "Essais sur la précarité énergétique : mesures multidimensionnelles et impacts de la fiscalité carbone." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PSLEH044/document.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Cette thèse explore deux questions autour de la précarité énergétique en France. Quel(s) indicateur(s) adopter pour quantifier la précarité énergétique et capturer ses multiples dimensions? Dans quelle mesure la fiscalité écologique pourrait-elle amplifier le phénomène ou, au contraire, constituer une opportunité de le combattre?Un premier chapitre introduit les enjeux sociaux et économiques de la précarité énergétique en France, ainsi que les défis que ce phénomène soulève pour les acteurs publics dans le cadre de la transition écologique (chapitre 1). Puis la thèse s'organise en deux grandes parties. La première partie concerne la quantification de la précarité énergétique. Je commence par rappeler les débats actuels autour de la mesure de la précarité énergétique et par souligner les limites des approches existantes (chapitre 2). Puis, j’explore la dimension transport du phénomène et propose un indice composite qui cible les différents facteurs qui contraignent la mobilité des ménages et leurs possibilités d’adaptation. Cet indice identifie trois niveaux d’exposition à une hausse des prix des carburants : précarité, vulnérabilité et dépendance (chapitre 3). Je poursuis ensuite la réflexion sur la construction d’un indice multidimensionnel de précarité énergétique et je cherche à mettre à jour ses implications politiques. Deux indices sont élaborés : un pour le logement et un pour le transport. Je montre comment ces nouveaux indices, parce qu’ils s’intéressent au cumul des facteurs qui désavantagent les ménages en matière d’énergie, permettent de limiter les erreurs d’inclusion et d’exclusion reprochées aux approches classiques. Une application dans le contexte français apporte de nouvelles perspectives sur le ciblage des réponses politiques et souligne la nécessité de remédier aux dimensions non monétaires de la précarité énergétique (chapitre 4).La seconde partie concerne les impacts distributifs de la fiscalité carbone. A partir d'une revue de la littérature, je précise les enjeux méthodologiques et les choix de modélisation pour rendre compte de manière satisfaisante de la distribution des impacts (chapitre 5). Je développe ensuite un modèle de microsimulation spécialement conçu pour évaluer l’impact sur les ménages de la taxe carbone française. Ce modèle simule, pour un échantillon représentatif de la population française, les taxes prélevées sur leur consommation d’énergie dans le logement et le transport. Je l’utilise pour quantifier l’impact de la taxe carbone sur les inégalités et la précarité énergétique. Enfin, j’explore ensuite différents scénarios de redistribution aux ménages avec pour objectif de corriger les iniquités engendrées - en particulier compenser la régressivité de la taxe carbone et combattre la précarité énergétique. J’évalue le coût de ces mesures au regard des recettes de la taxe carbone (chapitre 6)This thesis explores two questions about fuel poverty in France: What indicator(s) should be adopted to quantify fuel poverty and capture its multiple dimensions? To what extent does ecological taxation amplify the phenomenon or, on the contrary, provides an opportunity to fight it?A first chapter introduces the social and economic issues of fuel poverty in France, as well as the challenges this phenomenon raises for public actors in the context of an ecological transition (chapter 1). Then the thesis is divided into two main parts.The first part deals with the measurement of fuel poverty. I start by highlighting the current debates on the measurement of fuel poverty and the limitations of existing approaches (chapter 2). Next, I explore the transport dimension of fuel poverty and I propose a composite index of the various factors that constrain household mobility and their possibilities to adapt to higher fuel prices. This index identifies three levels of exposure to rising fuel prices: precariousness, vulnerability and dependence (chapter 3). I then continue studying the design of a multidimensional index of energy poverty and I seek to uncover its political implications. Two indices are developed: one for housing and one for transport. I show how these new indices, through addressing the cumulative factors that disadvantage households in terms of energy, can help limit the inclusion and exclusion errorsfrom which conventional approaches suffer. Quantification in the French context brings new insights on the targeting of policy responses and emphasizes the need to address the non-monetary dimensions of fuel poverty (chapter 4). The second part studies the distributive impacts of carbon taxation. Based on a review of literature, I discuss the methodological issues and the modelling choices to represent the distribution of impacts (chapter 5). I then develop a microsimulation model to assess the impact of the French carbon tax on households. This model simulates, for a representative sample of the French population, the taxes levied on their energy consumption in housing and transport. I use this model to quantify the impact of the carbon tax on inequality and fuel poverty. Finally, I explore different scenarios of redistribution of carbon tax revenues to households, with the objective to correct the found inequities - in particular, to compensate for the regressivity of the carbon tax and to reduce fuel poverty. I evaluate the cost of these measures in respect to the amount of carbon tax revenues (chapter 6)
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Pribyl, Ondrej. "A microsimulation model of activity patterns and within household interactions." 2004. http://etda.libraries.psu.edu/theses/approved/WorldWideIndex/ETD-489/index.html.
Повний текст джерела
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Cumpston, John Richard. "New techniques for household microsimulation, and their application to Australia." Phd thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/9046.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Household microsimulation models are sometimes used by national governments to make long-term projections of proposed policy changes. They are costly to develop and maintain, and sometimes have short lifetimes. Most present national models have limited interactions between agents, few regions and long simulation cycles. Some models are very slow to run. Overcoming these limitations may open up a much wider range of government, business and individual uses.
This thesis suggests techniques to help make multi-purpose dynamic microsimulations of households, with fine spatial resolutions, high sampling densities and short simulation cycles. Techniques suggested are: * simulation by sampling with loaded probabilities
* proportional event alignment
* event alignment using random sampling
* immediate matching by probability-weighting
* immediate 'best of n' matching.
All of these techniques are tested in artificial situations. Three of them - sampling with loaded probabilities, alignment using random sampling and best of n matching - are successfully tested in the Cumpston model, a household microsimulation model developed for this thesis.
Sampling with loaded probabilities is found to give almost identical results to the traditional all-case sampling, but be quicker. The suggested alignment and matching techniques are shown to give less distortion and generally lower runtimes than some techniques currently in use.
The Cumpston model is based on a 1% sample from the 2001 Australian census. Individuals, families, households and dwellings are included. Immigration and emigration are separately simulated, together with internal migration between 57 statistical divisions. Transitions between 8 person types are simulated, and between 9 occupations. The model projects education, employment, earnings and retirement savings for each individual, and dwelling values, rents and housing loans for each household. The onset and development of diseases for each individual are simulated. Validation of the model was based on methods used by the Orcutt, CORSIM, DYNACAN and APPSIM models. Iterative methods for model calibration are described, together with a statistical test for creep in multiple runs.
The model takes about 85 seconds to make projections for 50 years with yearly simulation cycles. After standardizing for sample size and projection years, this is a little slower than the fastest national models currently operating. A planned extension of the model is to 2.2 million persons over 2,214 areas, synthesized from 2011 census tabulations. Using multithreading where feasible, a 50-year projection may take about 10 minutes.
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Duivestein, Jared. "Household Vehicle Fleet Decision-making for an Integrated Land Use, Transportation and Environment Model." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/42825.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Understanding how households make decisions with regards to their vehicle fleet based on their demographics, socio-economic status and travel patterns is critical for managing the financial, economic, social and environmental health of cities.
Vehicle fleets therefore form a component of the Integrated Land Use, Transportation and Environment (ILUTE) modelling system under development at the University of Toronto. ILUTE is a year-by-year agent-based microsimulation model of demographics, land use and economic patterns, vehicle fleet
decisions and travel choices in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area.
This thesis extends previous work that modelled the quantity, class and vintage of vehicles in ILUTE households. This revised model offers three key improvements: transaction decisions are made sensitive
to travel patterns, fuel costs are better represented, and vehicle purchases are considered in the context of the overall household budgeting. Results are promising, but further model validation is required.
Potential extensions of the research are discussed.
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Paleti, Ravi Venkata Durga Rajesh. "On integrating models of household vehicle ownership, composition, and evolution with activity based travel models." Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/ETD-UT-2012-12-6687.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Activity-based travel demand model systems are increasingly being deployed to microsimulate daily activity-travel patterns of individuals. However, a critical dimension that is often missed in these models is that of vehicle type choice. The current dissertation addresses this issue head-on and contributes to the field of transportation planning in three major ways. First, this research develops a comprehensive vehicle micro-simulation framework that incorporates state-of-the-art household vehicle type choice, usage, and evolution models. The novelty of the framework developed is that it accommodates all the dimensions characterizing vehicle fleet/usage decisions, as well as accommodates all dimensions of vehicle transactions (i.e., fleet evolution) over time. The models estimated are multiple discrete-continuous models (vehicle type being the discrete component and vehicle mileage being the continuous component) and spatial discrete choice models that explicitly accommodate for multiple vehicle ownership and spatial interactions among households. More importantly, the vehicle fleet simulator developed in this study can be easily integrated within an activity-based microsimulation framework.
Second, the vehicle fleet evolution and composition models developed in this dissertation are used to predict the vehicle fleet characteristics, annual mileage, and the associated fuel consumption and green-house gas (GHG) emissions for future years as a function of the built environment, demographics, fuel and related technology, and policy scenarios. This exercise contributes in substantial ways to the identification of promising strategies to increase the penetration of alternative-fuel vehicles and fuel-efficient vehicles, reduce energy consumption, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Lastly, this research captures several complex interactions between vehicle ownership, location, and activity-travel decisions of individuals by estimating 1) a joint tour-based model of tour complexity, passenger accompaniment, vehicle type choice, and tour length, and 2) an integrated model of residential location, work location, vehicle ownership, and commute tour characteristics. The methodology used for estimating these models allows the specification and estimation of multi-dimensional choice model systems covering a wide spectrum of dependent variable types (including multinomial, ordinal, count, and continuous) and may be viewed as a major advance with the potential to lead to redefine the way activity-based travel model systems are structured and implemented.text
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"Modeling the Role and Influence of Children in Household Activity-Based Travel Model Systems." Master's thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.8757.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
abstract: Rapid developments are occurring in the arena of activity-based microsimulation models. Advances in computational power, econometric methodologies and data collection have all contributed to the development of microsimulation tools for planning applications. There has also been interest in modeling child daily activity-travel patterns and their influence on those of adults in the household using activity-based microsimulation tools. It is conceivable that most of the children are largely dependent on adults for their activity engagement and travel needs and hence would have considerable influence on the activity-travel schedules of adult members in the household. In this context, a detailed comparison of various activity-travel characteristics of adults in households with and without children is made using the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data. The analysis is used to quantify and decipher the nature of the impact of activities of children on the daily activity-travel patterns of adults. It is found that adults in households with children make a significantly higher proportion of high occupancy vehicle (HOV) trips and lower proportion of single occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips when compared to those in households without children. They also engage in more serve passenger activities and fewer personal business, shopping and social activities. A framework for modeling activities and travel of dependent children is proposed. The framework consists of six sub-models to simulate the choice of going to school/pre-school on a travel day, the dependency status of the child, the activity type, the destination, the activity duration, and the joint activity engagement with an accompanying adult. Econometric formulations such as binary probit and multinomial logit are used to obtain behaviorally intuitive models that predict children's activity skeletons. The model framework is tested using a 5% sample of a synthetic population of children for Maricopa County, Arizona and the resulting patterns are validated against those found in NHTS data. Microsimulation of these dependencies of children can be used to constrain the adult daily activity schedules. The deployment of this framework prior to the simulation of adult non-mandatory activities is expected to significantly enhance the representation of the interactions between children and adults in activity-based microsimulation models.Dissertation/Thesis
M.S. Civil and Environmental Engineering 2010
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Musti, Sashank. "Evolution of the household vehicle fleet : anticipating fleet compostion, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) adoption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Austin, Texas." Thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/ETD-UT-2009-12-681.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In today’s world of volatile fuel prices and climate concerns, there is little study on the relation between vehicle ownership patterns and attitudes toward potential policies and vehicle technologies. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austin’s household-fleet evolution. Results suggest that most Austinites (63%, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are vehicle purchase price, type/class, and fuel economy (with 30%, 21% and 19% of respondents placing these in their top three). Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would seriously consider purchasing a Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6,000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicle’s emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings.
25-year simulations suggest that 19% of Austin’s vehicle fleet could be comprised of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) and PHEVs under adoption of a feebate policy (along with PHEV availability in Year 1 of the simulation, and current gas prices throughout). Under all scenarios vehicle usage levels (in total vehicle miles traveled [VMT]) are predicted to increase overall, along with average vehicle ownership levels (per household, and per capita); and a feebate policy is predicted to raise total regional VMT slightly (just 4.43 percent, by simulation year 25), relative to the trend scenario, while reducing CO2 emissions only slightly (by 3.8 percent, relative to trend). Doubling the trend-case gas price to $5/gallon is simulated to reduce the year-25 vehicle use levels by 17% and CO2 emissions by 22% (relative to trend). Two- and three-vehicle households are simulated to be the highest adopters of HEVs and PHEVs across all scenarios. And HEVs, PHEVs and Smart Cars are estimated to represent a major share of the fleet’s VMT (25%) by year 25 under the feebate scenario. The combined share of vans, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and cross over utility vehicles (CUVs) is lowest under the feebate scenario, at 35% (versus 47% in Austin’s current household fleet), yet feebate-policy receipts exceed rebates in each simulation year. A 15% reduction in the usage levels of SUVs, CUVs and minivans is observed in the $5/gallon scenario (relative to trend). Mean use levels per vehicle of HEVs and PHEVs are simulated to have a variation of 753 and 495 across scenarios. In the longer term, gas price dynamics, tax incentives, feebates and purchase prices along with new technologies, government-industry partnerships, and more accurate information on range and recharging times (which increase customer confidence in EV technologies) should have even more significant effects on energy dependence and greenhouse gas emissions.text
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Zhou, Bin 1977. "Land use change through market dynamics : a Microsimulation of land development, the bidding process, and location choices of households and firms." Thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/23522.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Rapid urbanization is a pressing issue for planners, policymakers, transportation engineers, air quality modelers and others. Due to significant environmental, traffic and other impacts, the process of land development highlights a need for land use models with behavioral foundations. Such models seek to anticipate future settlement and transport patterns, helping ensure effective public and private investment decisions and policymaking, to accommodate growth while mitigating environmental impacts and other concerns. A variety of land use models now exist, but a market-based model with sufficient spatial resolution and defensible behavioral foundations remains elusive. This dissertation addresses this goal by developing and applying such a model. Real estate markets involve numerous interactive agents and real estate with a great level of heterogeneity. In the absence of tractable theory for realistic real estate markets, this research takes a “bottom-up” approach and simulates the behavior of tens of thousands of individual agents based on actual data. Both the supply and demand sides of the market are modeled explicitly, with endogenously determined property prices and land use patterns (including distributions of households and firms). Notions of competition were used to simulate price adjustment, and market-clearing prices were obtained in an iterative fashion. When real estate markets reach equilibrium, each agent is aligned with a single, utility-maximizing location and each allocated location is occupied by the highest bidding agent(s). This approach helps ensure a form of local equilibrium (subject to imperfect information on the part of most agents) along with useroptimal land allocation patterns. The model system was applied to the City of Austin and its extraterritorial jurisdiction. Multiple scenarios reveal the strengths and limitations of the market simulation and available data sets. While equilibrium prices in forecast years are generally lower than observed or expected, the spatial distributions of property values, new development, and individual agents are reasonable. Longer-term forecasts were generated to test the performance the model system. The forecasted households and firm distributions in year 2020 are consistent with expectations, but property prices are forecasted to experience noticeable changes. The model dynamics may be much improved by more appropriate maximum bid prices for each property. More importantly, this work demonstrates that microsimulation of real estate markets and the spatial allocation of households and firms is a viable pursuit. Such approaches herald a new wave of land use forecasting opportunities, for more effective policymaking and planning.text
Книги з теми "Household microsimulation"
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John, Landt, ed. Reweighting a base population for a microsimulation model. Canberra: National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, Faculty of Management, University of Canberra, 1995.
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O'Donoghue, Cathal. Practical Microsimulation Modelling. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198852872.001.0001.
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The purpose of this book is to bring together for the first time a description, with examples, of the main methods used in microsimulation modelling, used in the field of income-distribution analysis. The book provides a practical complement to the Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, published in 2014. It is structured to develop and use the different types of models used in the field, with a focus on household-targeted policy. The book aims to fill a gap in the literature in providing a greater degree of codified knowledge through a practical guide to developing and using microsimulation models. At present, the training of researchers and analysts that use and develop microsimulation modelling is done on a relatively ad-hoc basis through occasional training programmes and lecture series, built around lecture notes. This book would enable a more formalized and organized approach. Each chapter addresses a separate modelling approach in a similar, consistent way, describing in practical terms the key methodological skills for each approach: · It provides some policy context to each modelling approach so as to understand the modelling choices made and structures developed. · As a very data-intensive modelling approach, each chapter describes key data analysis and data-preparation methods. · As a modelling approach that is used extensively for deciding policy, often involving huge budgets, validation is key. Each chapter describes an approach to validating the model. · Depending upon the policy context, the analysis is assessed in different ways. Each chapter contains a section devoted to measurement issues and tabulating output from the models. · Last, each chapter contains an example simulation of a policy analysis using the chapter’s methodological approach.
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Mohammadian, Abolfazl. Dynamic modelling of household automobile transactions within a microsimulation framework. 2002.
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Adu-Ababio, Kwabena, and Robert Darko Osei. Effects of an education reform on household poverty and inequality: A microsimulation analysis on the free Senior High School policy in Ghana. UNU-WIDER, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.35188/unu-wider/2018/589-3.
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Jara, H. Xavier, Lourdes Montesdeoca, and Iva Tasseva. The role of automatic stabilizers and emergency tax–benefit policies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador. 4th ed. UNU-WIDER, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35188/unu-wider/2021/938-9.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This paper makes use of tax–benefit microsimulation techniques to quantify the distributional effects of COVID-19 in Ecuador and the role of tax–benefit policies in mitigating the immediate impact of the economic shocks. Our results show a dramatic increase in income poverty and inequality between December 2019 and June 2020. The poverty rate, measured with the national poverty line, goes up from 25.7 to 58.2 per cent over this period and extreme poverty increases from 9.2 to 38.6 per cent. Inequality measured by the Gini coefficient increases substantially from 0.461 to 0.592. On average, household disposable income drops by 41 per cent. The new Family Protection Grant provides income protection for the poorest income decile. However, overall tax–benefit policies do little to mitigate the losses in household incomes due to the pandemic.
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Kisanga, Elineema, Vincent Leyaro, Wahabi Matengo, Michael Noble, Helen Barnes, and Gemma Wright. Assessing the distributional impact of lowering the value-added tax rate for standard-rated items in Tanzania and options for recouping revenue losses. 38th ed. UNU-WIDER, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35188/unu-wider/2021/976-1.
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This paper explores the distributional impact of lowering the value-added tax rate for standard-rated items in Tanzania Mainland. Using a static tax-benefit microsimulation model—TAZMOD—which is underpinned by data derived from the Household Budget Survey 2017/18, reductions in value-added taxes from 18 per cent to 17 per cent and 16 per cent are simulated. The revenue losses and impact on poverty are estimated. The rules for direct taxes are then modified in order to identify ways in which the revenue loss caused by the lowering of the standard rate of value-added taxes can be recouped.
Частини книг з теми "Household microsimulation"
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O’Donoghue, Cathal. "Farm Household Microsimulation Modelling: Viability." In Farm-Level Microsimulation Modelling, 321–62. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63979-6_11.
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Nelissen, Jan H. M. "The Interaction of Household and Labour Market Modules in Microsimulation Models." In Household Demography and Household Modeling, 319–41. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-5424-7_14.
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Galler, Heinz P. "Competing Risks and Unobserved Heterogeneity, with Special Reference to Dynamic Microsimulation Models." In Household Demography and Household Modeling, 203–24. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-5424-7_9.
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Feldman, Olga, Roger Mackett, Emma Richmond, David Simmonds, and Vassilis Zachariadis. "A Microsimulation Model of Household Location." In Residential Location Choice, 223–41. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12788-5_11.
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O’Donoghue, Cathal, Karyn Morrissey, Philip Hayes, Jason Loughrey, Joanne Banks, and Stephen Hynes. "The Spatial Distribution of Household Disposable Income." In Spatial Microsimulation for Rural Policy Analysis, 193–211. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-30026-4_11.
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Morrissey, Karyn, and Cathal O’Donoghue. "Validation Issues and the Spatial Pattern of Household Income." In Spatial Microsimulation for Rural Policy Analysis, 87–102. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-30026-4_5.
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van Leeuwen, Eveline S. "Microsimulation of Rural Households." In Contributions to Economics, 115–35. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag HD, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2407-0_6.
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Birkin, Mark. "Microsimulation." In Urban Informatics, 845–64. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8983-6_44.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
AbstractFrom origins in economics and financial analysis, microsimulation has become an important technique for spatial analysis. The method relies on conversion of aggregate census tables, sometimes complemented by sample data at the individual level, to synthetic lists of people and households. The individual records generated by the microsimulation can be aggregated flexibly to small areas, linked to create new attributes, and projected forward in time under stable conditions, or in the context of ‘what-if’ policy scenarios. The chapter outlines the basic building blocks of microsimulation and shows how these are combined within a representative practical application. It is argued that further progress can be expected through advances in computation, assimilation of data into models, and greater capacity to handle uncertainty and dynamics. We also expect the creation of more sophisticated architectures to reflect the interdependence between population structures at the micro-scale, and the supply-side infrastructures and urban environments in which they evolve.
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"Household allocation." In Spatial Microsimulation with R, 171–82. Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/b20666-13.
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"Household allocation." In Spatial Microsimulation with R, 171–82. Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781315381640-12.
Повний текст джерелаЗвіти організацій з теми "Household microsimulation"
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Diao, Xinshen, and Kristi Mahrt. Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Myanmar: A microsimulation approach. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133859.
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Diao, Xinshen, Gracie Rosenbach, David J. Spielman, and Emerta Aragie. Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134450.
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Diao, Xinshen, Gracie Rosenbach, David J. Spielman, and Emerta Aragie. Synopsis Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134484.
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Diao, Xinshen, and Kristi Mahrt. Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Myanmar: A microsimulation approach - An analytical summary, in Burmese. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133941.
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Roantree, Barra, Karina Doorley, Theano Kakoulidou, and Seamus O'Malley. Budget 2022. ESRI, December 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.26504/qec2021win_sa_roantree.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This Article outlines and assesses changes to the tax and welfare system announced as part of Budget 2022. It first looks at the main taxation measures announced before turning to employment, education and social welfare supports. It then considers the effect of the package of measures as a whole on the incomes of households using representative survey data from the Survey of Incomes and Living Conditions run on SWITCH – the ESRI’s tax and benefit microsimulation model – and ITSim – an indirect tax microsimulation model developed jointly by the ESRI and the Department of Finance. The Article concludes with some brief reflections on inflation forecasts and the policy-making process.
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Doorley, Karina, and Mark Regan. The impact of Irish budgetary policy by disability status. ESRI, June 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.26504/bp202301.
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Existing research has shown that disability is costly and can result in an increased risk of living in poverty and a decrease in living standards. In this paper, we expand a framework of equality budgeting, previously applied from a gender perspective, to the population of households affected by disability. Using a microsimulation model linked to data from the EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), we show how tax-benefit policy and other market income changes between 2007 and 2019 impacted households affected by disability and households not affected by disability. We find that disposable (or post-tax and transfer) income grew for both types of households but at a faster rate for households affected by disability than households not affected by disability. This income growth was driven by two counteracting forces. On the one hand, tax and welfare policy failed to keep pace with market income growth, reducing the living standards of households affected by disability by more than households not affected by disability. On the other hand, despite having lower average wage levels, wage growth for workers affected by disability outpaced wage growth for workers not affected by disability, while the labour supply of households affected by disability also increased. Future attempts to equality-proof budgetary policy should consider that changes to welfare disproportionally affect households with disabilities.