Дисертації: "Historical modeling"

1

Schulte, Lukas. "Investigating topic modeling techniques for historical feature location." Thesis, Karlstads universitet, Institutionen för matematik och datavetenskap (from 2013), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-85379.

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Software maintenance and the understanding of where in the source code features are implemented are two strongly coupled tasks that make up a large portion of the effort spent on developing applications. The concept of feature location investigated in this thesis can serve as a supporting factor in those tasks as it facilitates the automation of otherwise manual searches for source code artifacts. Challenges in this subject area include the aggregation and composition of a training corpus from historical codebase data for models as well as the integration and optimization of qualified topic modeling techniques. Building up on previous research, this thesis provides a comparison of two different techniques and introduces a toolkit that can be used to reproduce and extend on the results discussed. Specifically, in this thesis a changeset-based approach to feature location is pursued and applied to a large open-source Java project. The project is used to optimize and evaluate the performance of Latent Dirichlet Allocation models and Pachinko Allocation models, as well as to compare the accuracy of the two models with each other. As discussed at the end of the thesis, the results do not indicate a clear favorite between the models. Instead, the outcome of the comparison depends on the metric and viewpoint from which it is assessed.

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2

Gurian, Patrick Lee. "Setting Drinking Water Standards: Historical Perspective and Simulation Modeling." Research Showcase @ CMU, 2001. http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/662.

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Setting drinking water standards involves both technical knowledge and an understanding of societal values and institutions. To provide perspective and tools for evaluating these issues a set of historical and current regulatory assessments are presented here. The first of these case studies considers the history of the 1914 Public Health Service drinking water standards and is based on information in archival materials and journal articles of the time period. A simulation model to estimate the costs and benefits of proposed drinking water regulations on U.S. community water systems is then developed. The model simulates current contaminant concentrations and existing treatment types based on fitted statistical models. For systems that exceed any of the drinking water standards included in the model, the costs and effectiveness of alternative compliance strategies are simulated, and the system is assumed to select the least costly strategy capable of achieving compliance with the standards. This modeling approach allows for quantitative estimates of the uncertainty in regulatory impacts, geographic and size class specificity, and the consideration of multiple standards simultaneously. The model is applied first to the case of a lower drinking water standard for arsenic. The marginal cost-effectiveness of different standards and the impacts of several alternative regulatory approaches are considered. Discrepancies in previous estimates of compliance costs are shown to result primarily from differences in the treatment process cost estimates used by the different studies. An evaluation of alternative regulatory approaches for arsenic indicates that point-of-use treatment has the potential to be a lowcost means of compliance for smaller water systems but would most likely provide less uniform water quality than centralized treatment, with costs and performance highly dependent on the frequency of monitoring and service. The simulation model is then applied to consider jointly standards for three contaminants: arsenic, nitrate, and uranium. The costs and benefits of imposing the three standards simultaneously are smaller than the sum of the costs and benefits of the individual standards. For these contaminants the difference between the sum of the individual analyses and the integrated analysis is fairly small, but the effects of joint regulation may be larger for contaminants with more highly correlated occurrence distributions.

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3

Resmini, Andrea <1966&gt. "Information Architecture Modeling for Historical and Juridical Manuscript Collections." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2010. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/2941/1/andrea_resmini_tesi.pdf.

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4

Resmini, Andrea <1966&gt. "Information Architecture Modeling for Historical and Juridical Manuscript Collections." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2010. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/2941/.

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5

Nanzad, Bolorchimeg. "EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR MODELING HISTORICAL RESOURCE PRODUCTION AND FORECASTING." OpenSIUC, 2017. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses/2192.

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This master’s thesis project consists of two parts. Part I of the project compares modeling of historical resource production and forecasting of future production trends using the logit/probit transform advocated by Rutledge (2011) with conventional Hubbert curve fitting, using global coal production as a case study. The conventional Hubbert/Gaussian method fits a curve to historical production data whereas a logit/probit transform uses a linear fit to a subset of transformed production data. Within the errors and limitations inherent in this type of statistical modeling, these methods provide comparable results. That is, despite that apparent goodness-of-fit achievable using the Logit/Probit methodology, neither approach provides a significant advantage over the other in either explaining the observed data or in making future projections. For mature production regions, those that have already substantially passed peak production, results obtained by either method are closely comparable and reasonable, and estimates of ultimately recoverable resources obtained by either method are consistent with geologically estimated reserves. In contrast, for immature regions, estimates of ultimately recoverable resources generated by either of these alternative methods are unstable and thus, need to be used with caution. Although the logit/probit transform generates high quality-of-fit correspondence with historical production data, this approach provides no new information compared to conventional Gaussian or Hubbert-type models and may have the effect of masking the noise and/or instability in the data and the derived fits. In particular, production forecasts for immature or marginally mature production systems based on either method need to be regarded with considerable caution. Part II of the project investigates the utility of a novel alternative method for multicyclic Hubbert modeling tentatively termed “cycle-jumping” wherein overlap of multiple cycles is limited. The model is designed in a way that each cycle is described by the same three parameters as conventional multicyclic Hubbert model and every two cycles are connected with a transition width. Transition width indicates the shift from one cycle to the next and is described as weighted coaddition of neighboring two cycles. It is determined by three parameters: transition year, transition width, and γ parameter for weighting. The cycle-jumping method provides superior model compared to the conventional multicyclic Hubbert model and reflects historical production behavior more reasonably and practically, by better modeling of the effects of technological transitions and socioeconomic factors that affect historical resource production behavior by explicitly considering the form of the transitions between production cycles.

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6

Giuliani, Marco <1982&gt. "Development of An Energy Modeling Approach to Analyse Historical Building Performance." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2014. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/6655/1/Giuliani_Marco_Development_of_An_Energy_Modeling_Approach_to_Analyse_Historical_Building_Performance.pdf.

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In the last years the attentions on the energy efficiency on historical buildings grows, as different research project took place across Europe. The attention on combining, the need of the preservation of the buildings, their value and their characteristic, with the need of the reduction of energy consumption and the improvements of indoor comfort condition, stimulate the discussion of two points of view that are usually in contradiction, buildings engineer and Conservation Institution. The results are surprising because a common field is growing while remains the need of balancing the respective exigencies. From these experience results clear that many questions should be answered also from the building physicist regarding the correct assessment: on the energy consumption of this class of buildings, on the effectiveness of the measures that could be adopted, and much more. This thesis gives a contribution to answer to these questions developing a procedure to analyse the historic building. The procedure gives a guideline of the energy audit for the historical building considering the experimental activities to dial with the uncertainty of the estimation of the energy balance. It offers a procedure to simulate the energy balance of building with a validated dynamic model considering also a calibration procedure to increase the accuracy of the model. An approach of design of energy efficiency measures through an optimization that consider different aspect is also presented. All the process is applied to a real case study to give to the reader a practical understanding.

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7

Giuliani, Marco <1982&gt. "Development of An Energy Modeling Approach to Analyse Historical Building Performance." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2014. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/6655/.

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In the last years the attentions on the energy efficiency on historical buildings grows, as different research project took place across Europe. The attention on combining, the need of the preservation of the buildings, their value and their characteristic, with the need of the reduction of energy consumption and the improvements of indoor comfort condition, stimulate the discussion of two points of view that are usually in contradiction, buildings engineer and Conservation Institution. The results are surprising because a common field is growing while remains the need of balancing the respective exigencies. From these experience results clear that many questions should be answered also from the building physicist regarding the correct assessment: on the energy consumption of this class of buildings, on the effectiveness of the measures that could be adopted, and much more. This thesis gives a contribution to answer to these questions developing a procedure to analyse the historic building. The procedure gives a guideline of the energy audit for the historical building considering the experimental activities to dial with the uncertainty of the estimation of the energy balance. It offers a procedure to simulate the energy balance of building with a validated dynamic model considering also a calibration procedure to increase the accuracy of the model. An approach of design of energy efficiency measures through an optimization that consider different aspect is also presented. All the process is applied to a real case study to give to the reader a practical understanding.

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8

Teomete, Egemen Aktaş Engin. "Finite element modeling of historical masonry structures;case study: Urla Kamanli Mosque/." [s.l.]: [s.n.], 2004. http://library.iyte.edu.tr/tezler/master/insaatmuh/T000494.pdf.

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9

Hengchen, Simon. "When Does it Mean? Detecting Semantic Change in Historical Texts." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/261377.

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Contrary to what has been done to date in the hybrid field of natural language processing (NLP), this doctoral thesis holds that the new approach developed below makes it possible to semi-automatically detect semantic changes in digitised, OCRed, historical corpora. We define the term semi-automatic as “making use of an advanced tool whilst remaining in control of key decisions regarding the processing of the corpus”. If the tool utilised – “topic modelling”, and more precisely the “Latent Dirichlet Allocation” (LDA) – is not unknown in NLP or computational historical semantics, where it is already mobilised to follow a priori selected words and try to detect when these words change meaning, it has never been used, to the best of our knowledge, to detect which words change in a humanistically-relevant way. In other terms, our method does not study a word in context to gather information on this specific word, but the whole context – which we consider a witness to a potential evolution of reality – to gather more contextual information on one or several particular semantic shift candidates. In order to detect these semantic changes, we use the algorithm to create lexical fields: groups of words that together define a subject to which they all relate. By comparing lexical fields over different time periods of the same corpus (that is, by mobilising a diachronic approach), we try to determine whether words appear over time. We support that if a word starts to be used in a certain context at a certain time, it is a likely candidate for semantic change. Of course, the method developed here and illustrated by a case study applies to a certain context: that of digitised, OCRed, historical archives in Dutch. Nevertheless, this doctoral work also describes the advantages and disadvantages of the algorithm and postulates, on the basis of this evaluation, that the method is applicable to other fields, under other conditions. By carrying out a critical evaluation of the tools available and used, this doctoral thesis invites the community to the reproducibility of the method, whilst pointing out obvious limitations of the approach and propositions on how to solve them.
Doctorat en Information et communication
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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10

Fall, Joseph Gordon. "Reconstructing the historical frequency of fire, a modeling approach to developing and testing methods." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp03/MQ37525.pdf.

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11

Goicoechea, Saioa, and Patricia López. "Modeling the air change rate in a naturally ventilated historical church : MultipleLinear Regression analysis." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Akademin för teknik och miljö, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-13640.

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In this thesis the air infiltration through the envelope of a naturally ventilated stone church located in Bergby (Gävle, Sweden) is studied. The project is focused on Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) modeling the air change rate (ACH) inside the church hall and studying the factors (stack effect and wind effect) that influence the air infiltration. The weather parameters outside the building were recorded in a weather station and the properties of the air inside the church was analyzed with different methods. Infrared thermography techniques and thermistors were used to measure the temperature inside, the tracer gas method to measure the ACH and the blower door technique to measure the tightness of the building envelope. In order to know the pressure coefficients on the church envelope a physical model of the building was studied in a wind tunnel. Firstly, only the values obtained from the weather station were used to calculate the predictors of ACH and see which parameter influence more on its variation: temperature difference (∆T) indicating the stack effect; and wind speed (WS), the component of wind speed perpendicular to the long-side facades of the church (WS90) and their square values (WS2 and WS902) indicating the wind effect. The data obtained in the wind tunnel were later used to do the MLR study with new predictors for indicating wind effect (∆Cp∙WS, ∆Cp∙WS2, ∆CpOUT-IN·A∙WS, ∆CpOUT-IN·A∙WS2, ∆CpC-H∙WS, ∆CpC-H∙WS2). Better prediction of ACH was obtained with the square of the wind speed (WS2) instead of the magnitude itself (WS). However, the latter (WS) provided better results than the regression with the magnitude of the perpendicular component of the wind (WS90). Although wind speed influences in ACH, it alone seems to be a very poor predictor of ACH since has a negative correlation with ΔT when the data under study include both day and night. However when high wind speed are detected it has quite strong influence. The most significant predictions of ACR were attained with the combined predictors ∆T & WS and ∆T & ∆CpOUT-IN·A∙WS2. The main conclusion taken from the MLR analysis is that the stack effect is the most significant factor influencing the ACH inside the church hall. This leads to suggest that an effective way of reducing ACH could be sealing the floor and ceiling of the church because from those areas the air infiltration has big influence on the ACH inside the church hall, and more in this case that have been noted that the floor is very leaky. Although different assumptions have been done during the analyses that contribute to make the predictions deviate from reality, at the end it would be possible to asses that MLR can be a useful tool for analyzing the relative importance of the driving forces for ACR in churches and similar buildings, as long as the included predictors not are too mutually correlated, and that attained models that are statistically significant also are physically realistic.
Church project

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12

Krock, Jennifer Rose. "Historical Morphodynamics of John’s Pass, West-Central Florida." Scholar Commons, 2005. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/731.

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John’s Pass is a stable mixed-energy inlet located on a microtidal coast in Pinellas County, Florida. It is hydraulically connected to the northern portion of Boca Ciega Bay. Morphological analysis using a time-series of aerial photographs indicated that anthropogenic activities have influenced the evolution of the tidal deltas and adjacent shorelines at John’s Pass. Previous studies have documented the channel dimensions at the location of the existing bridge and calculated the tidal prism. A chronological analysis of these data yielded an increasing trend in the cross-sectional area at John’s Pass from 1873 to 2001. Anthropogenic activities occurring in Boca Ciega Bay impacting this trend begin in the 1920’s when Indian Pass, approximately 7 km north of John’s Pass, was artificially closed. Other significant events causing an increase or decrease in the crosssectional area at John’s Pass include dredging and filling in the bay, channel dredging at John’s Pass, and jetty construction. More recent data collected from a simultaneous current meter deployment at John’s Pass and Blind Pass were used to calculate the bay area serviced by each inlet resulting in an area serviced by John’s Pass being 1.8x104 km2 and 0.33x104 km2 serviced by Blind Pass. In comparison, Blind Pass captures 14 percent of the tidal prism that John’s Pass captures and John’s Pass captures 87 percent of the bay prism while Blind Pass captures 13 percent. Using the discharge equation and assuming the channel area was largely constant the tidal prism at John’s Pass was 1.07x107 m3 during the twenty-one day deployment. Based on a historical analysis of the tidal prism this study is within 40 percent of the tidal prism calculated by Mehta (1976) and Becker and Ross (2001) and within 20 percent of the tidal prism calculated by Jarrett (1976) and Davis and Gibeaut (1990). An analysis of the current meter time-series indicated that flood velocities in the channel were influenced by a frontal system passing through the study area during the deployment increasing the amount of potential sediment being deposited in the channel thalweg. The maximum ebb and flood-tidal velocities during the deployment were 143 cm/s and 115 cm/s, respectively. Morphological analysis of cross-sectional data from 1995 to 2004 indicated that sediment tends to accumulate along the northern portion of the channel. The channel thalweg tends to accumulate more sediment east of the bridge where wave energy is lower and currents are not as strong. An average net accumulation of 0.5 m per year was estimated along all seven cross-sections. Given the length and width of the surveyed channel, 610 m by approximately 150 m, the sediment flux through the inlet is approximately 45,800 m3 /yr along the channel thalweg. A small amount of sediment accumulation has occurred southwest of the bridge in response to channelized flood flows along the newly constructed jetty. An annual sediment budget was estimated for the John’s Pass inlet system using the beach profiles and inlet bathymetry data between 2000 and 2001. Overall, the inlet system has accumulated more sediment than it has lost during this time period.

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13

Wijayarathne, Dayal Buddika. "Shallow Groundwater Modeling of the Historical Irwin Wet Prairie in the Oak Openings of Northwest Ohio." Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1435749359.

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14

Lou, Yuxiang, and Filip Matz. "Optimizing Product Assortments with Unknown Historical Transaction Data Using Nonparametric Choice Modeling and Random Forest Classification." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-261636.

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Assortment optimization is a crucial problem for many firms who need to make decisions on which products to stock in their stores in order to maximize revenues. Optimizing assortments usually entails fitting choice models to historical data. To a large extent, this becomes a problem of understanding consumer behavior. In this paper, a two-step method is proposed for optimizing assortments for stores where there was no known sales data. First, training data was generated by optimizing assortments, using a non parametric choice model, on similar stores for which data is available. Then this training data isused to develop a series of random forest models which given parameters for a store can generate an optimal assortment. The features used in the random forest models were chosen based on consumer behavior theory and consisted of geographical and financial features as well as features regarding the composition of the stores. The data used in this report was provided by a major Swedish print distributor with over 1000 stores and 2500 products. The results presented in this paper show that this method outperforms the baseline in all cases studied. Furthermore, it was determined that geographic features are the essential type of features for the models to determine the optimal assortments for stores.
Produktsortimentsoptimering är ett centralt problem för många företag som måste ta beslut om vilka produkter de ska lagerhålla för att maximera sin vinst. Att optimera produktsortiment brukar ofta innebära att träna valmodeller på historisk data. Detta blir ofta en fråga om att förstå konsumenters beteende. I denna uppsats presenteras en tvåstegs metod för att optimiera produktsortiment utan historisk data. I det första steget optimeras sortimentet med hjälp av en icke-parametrisk valmodell på liknande butiker där data finns tillgängligt. Sedan utvecklas Random Forest modellermed de optimerade sortimenten som träningsdata. Givna en rad parameterar kan dessa modeller generera optimala sortiment. Parametrarna som användes i Random Forest modellerna valdes baserat på konsumentteori and bestod av geografiska och finansiella parametrar så väl som parameterar som beskrev butikernas sammansättning. Datan som användes tillhandahölls av ett svenskt företag inom tryckbranschen som har över 1000 butiker och 2500 produkter i sitt sortiment. Resultaten som presenterades i denna uppsats visar att metoden presterar bättre än baslinjen i alla fall som studerades. Utöver detta, så beslutas det att geografiska parametrar är de viktigaste parametrarna för modelerna att ta beslut angående de optimala sortimenten.

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15

El, Khoury Antoun. "Modeling Land-use Changes in the South Nation Watershed Using Dyna-CLUE." Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/22902.

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The South Nation watershed is located in Eastern Ontario, Canada and managed under the authority of the South Nation Conservation (SNC). The watershed covers an area of 400,000 hectares with four dominant categories of land-use classes (60% agriculture, 34% forest, 5% mixed urban, and 1% other). Water quality is a great concern for the SNC as many anthropogenic activities generate harmful pollutants (such as heavy metals, nitrogen, phosphorus, and pesticides) that are discharged to the river through surface and groundwater flow. The discharge patterns of these pollutants are mainly driven by land-use distribution within the watershed which has been constantly evolving with urbanization and intensification of agriculture. Major changes in land-uses can potentially offset current SNC efforts to mitigate water pollution. The objective of the current study is to predict land-use series of maps for the South Nation watershed starting from 1991 to 2020. The prediction is carried out using the land-use allocation algorithm of the Dyna-CLUE (Dynamic Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects) model which is implemented for local regions. Dyna-CLUE is a spatially explicit hybrid land-use allocation model that combines estimation and simulation models, and its allocation procedures predict future trends of land-use surface (estimated from historical trends). The binary logistic regression is used to link preferences of land-use classes and potential demographic and geographic driving factors. Expert judgment was used to select a set of spatial driving factors believed to be responsible for changes in land-use distribution in the South Nation watershed. Three different scenarios for future development of the region were considered, with different initial conditions and conversion restrictions. The simulation results were evaluated using visual and statistical validation techniques to assess the performance of the model in generating maps similar to reality. The Dyna-CLUE model was successfully applied to the South Nation watershed. It was observed that the simulated maps generated from the model were in good agreement with the reality maps. This was confirmed through statistical validation via map pair analysis (error matrix) used to assess the overall accuracy of the model predictions. Results showed that the model was sensitive to land-use restrictions. Such type of modeling can be valuable for assessing the land-use changes at the local level, and setting up a decision support system for the South Nation Conservation towards sustainable land-use management in the watershed. Better results are expected to be achieved with more reliable datasets (i.e., accurate classification of land-use types in reality maps). Data availability and quality were the main obstacles that faced this research work. Our work has the merit to be the first application of CLUE model in Eastern Ontario.

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16

Rabeiy, Ragab Elsayed [Verfasser]. "Spatial modeling of heavy metal pollution of forest soils in an historical mining area using geostatistical methods and air despersion modeling / Ragab Elsayed Rabeiy." Clausthal-Zellerfeld : Universitätsbibliothek Clausthal, 2010. http://d-nb.info/1007800925/34.

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17

Cardillo, Enrico. "HBIM methodology for structural preservation of historical buildings: the semantic modeling of the San Felice sul Panaro fortress." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2021.

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Building Information Modelling is changing the design and construction field ever since it entered the market. It took just some time to show its capabilities, it takes some time to be mastered before it could be used expressing all its best features. Since it was conceived to be adopted from the earliest stage of design to get the maximum from the decisional project, it still struggles to adapt to existing buildings. In fact, there is a branch of this methodology that is dedicated to what has been already made that is called Historic BIM or HBIM. This study aims to make clear what are BIM and HBIM, both from a theoretical point of view and in practice, applying from scratch the state of the art to a case study. It had been chosen the fortress of San Felice sul Panaro, a marvellous building with a thousand years of history in its bricks, that suffered violent earthquakes, but it is still standing. By means of this example, it will be shown which are the limits that could be encountered when applying BIM methodology to existing heritage, moreover will be pointed out all the new features that a simple 2D design could not achieve.

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18

Carlsson, Henrik. "Modeling method to visually reconstruct the historical Vasa ship with the help of a 3D scanned point cloud." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Avdelningen för Industriell utveckling, IT och Samhällsbyggnad, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-10574.

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A point cloud derived from scanning the actual Vasa ship is used for an accurate visualisation. Both manual and automatic mesh techniques where utilized in the modelling of the Vasa ship to overcome problems of poor resolution in the point cloud and computing power. A combination of manual and automatic techniques resulted in a 3D model optimized for use within animation software. The method presented in this paper utilized a method that allows the user to keep control over topology. The polygon count is kept to a minimum and one can still remain certain that the measurements and realism from the point cloud is maintained.

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19

Appleby, Christina. "Modeling Historical Meander Bends Reconnection on the lower Long Tom River in Lane Co. and Benton Co., OR." Thesis, University of Oregon, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/20717.

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Since the damming and channelization of the lower Long Tom River in the 1940s and 1950s, the quality and quantity of habitat for coastal cutthroat trout and spring Chinook salmon in the watershed has dramatically diminished. In order to better understand the potential for stream restoration, this study uses 2D hydraulic modeling to determine the impact of reconnecting historical meander bends to the main stem of the lower Long Tom River on localized flooding, sediment erosion and deposition, and salmonid physical habitat. These models compare the current conditions to two restoration scenarios that allow for fish passage given 1, 2, and 5-year flood events at two study sites. This study reveals important variations in the impact of restoration between the study sites and the reconnection methods. It also suggests that there is the potential for a large increase in the area of accessible habitat with stream restoration.

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20

Cebulak, Mary C. "Molecular modeling studies on the reduction of inososes and deoxy-inososes : a synthetic and historical overview of the cyclitols /." Thesis, This resource online, 1992. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-10102009-020223/.

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21

Sin, Yongsik. "Ecosystem analysis of water column processes in the York River estuary, Virginia: Historical records, field studies and modeling analysis." W&M ScholarWorks, 1998. https://scholarworks.wm.edu/etd/1539616855.

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Analyses of EPA long-term datasets (1985--1994) combined with field studies and ecosystem model development were used to investigate phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics in the York River estuary. Analysis of the EPA dataset showed that algal blooms occurred during winter-spring followed by smaller summer blooms. Peak phytoplankton biomass during the winter-spring blooms occurred in the mid reach of the mesohaline zone whereas during the summer bloom it occurred in the tidal fresh-mesolialine transition zone. River discharge appears to be the major factor controlling the location and timing of the winter-spring blooms and the relative degree of potential nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) limitation. Phytoplankton biomass in tidal fresh water regions was limited by high flushing rates. Water residence time was less than cell doubling rate during seasons of high river flow. Positive correlations between PAR at 1m depth and chlorophyll a suggested light limitation of phytoplankton in the tidal fresh-mesohaline transition zone. A significant relationship between the delta of salinity between surface and bottom water and chlorophyll a distribution suggested the importance of tidal mixing for phytoplankton dynamics in the mesohaline zone. Accumulation of phytoplankton biomass in the mesohaline zone was generally controlled by N with the nutrient supply provided by benthic or bottom water remineralization. In general, phytoplankton dynamics appear controlled to a large extent by resource limitation (bottom-up control) rather than zooplankton grazing (top-down control). The dynamics of phytoplankton size structure were investigated in the freshwater, transitional and estuarine reaches of the York River over an annual cycle. The contribution of large cells (micro-plankton, >20 mum) to total biomass increased downstream during winter whereas that of small cells (nano-, 3--20 mum) pico-plankton, <3 mum) increased downstream during summer. I conclude from these studies that spatial and seasonal variations in size structure of phytoplankton observed on the estuarine scale are determined both by the different preferences of micro-, nano-, and picoplankton for nutrients and by their different light requirements. Analyses of phytoplankton size structure are, thus, necessary to better understand phytoplankton dynamics and to better manage water quality in estuarine systems. An ecosystem model was developed to integrate these data and to investigate mechanisms controlling the size-structured phytoplankton dynamics in the mesohaline zone of the York River estuary. The model developed in Fortran90 included 12 state variables describing the distribution of carbon and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus) in the surface mixed layer. Forcing functions included incident radiation, temperature, wind stress, mean flow and tide including advective transport and turbulent mixing. Model results supported the general view that phytoplankton dynamics are controlled by abiotic mechanisms (i.e. bottom-up control) rather than biotic, trophic interactions in the York River estuary. Model sensitivity tests showed that small cells (pico-, nano-sized) are more likely regulated by temperature and light whereas large cells (micro-sized) are regulated by physical processes such as advection, and tidal mixing. Microphytoplankton blooms during winter- pring resulted from a combination of longitudinal advection and vertical diffusion of phytoplankton cells rather than in-situ production.

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22

Schindler, Grant. "Unlocking the urban photographic record through 4D scene modeling." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/34719.

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Vast collections of historical photographs are being digitally archived and placed online, providing an objective record of the last two centuries that remains largely untapped. We propose that time-varying 3D models can pull together and index large collections of images while also serving as a tool of historical discovery, revealing new information about the locations, dates, and contents of historical images. In particular, our goal is to use computer vision techniques to tie together a large set of historical photographs of a given city into a consistent 4D model of the city: a 3D model with time as an additional dimension. To extract 4D city models from historical images, we must perform inference about the position of cameras and scene structure in both space and time. Traditional structure from motion techniques can be used to deal with the spatial problem, while here we focus on the problem of inferring temporal information: a date for each image and a time interval for which each structural element in the scene persists. We first formulate this task as a constraint satisfaction problem based on the visibility of structural elements in each image, resulting in a temporal ordering of images. Next, we present methods to incorporate real date information into the temporal inference solution. Finally, we present a general probabilistic framework for estimating all temporal variables in structure from motion problems, including an unknown date for each camera and an unknown time interval for each structural element. Given a collection of images with mostly unknown or uncertain dates, we can use this framework to automatically recover the dates of all images by reasoning probabilistically about the visibility and existence of objects in the scene. We present results for image collections consisting of hundreds of historical images of cities taken over decades of time, including Manhattan and downtown Atlanta.

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23

Richards, Kevin Tarn 1976. "Hydrologic and water quality modeling with HSPF : utilization of data from a novel field data collection system and historical archives." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/28243.

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Thesis (M.Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2002.
Includes bibliographical references (leaf 63).
Catchment-scale hydrology and water quality studies are empowered by current mobile computing, wireless, and Internet technologies to new levels of technical assessment capability. These technical developments motivate an investigation into the modem uses of hydrologic and water quality models. The Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) is applied using data from the Williams River basin, New South Wales, Australia. The Williams River is an agricultural catchment with interesting physical characteristics and various non-point source water quality issues that warrant a modeling investigation to characterize the hydrology of this large and heavily utilized water resource. Model inputs include 1) a thorough set of Geographic Information System (GIS) files utilized in a closely coupled interface with the HSPF algorithms; 2) time series meteorologic and water quality datasets from historical archives; and 3) supplemental data obtained during a technically enabled field sampling campaign. These inputs are formatted for import to the HSPF routines, streamflow is simulated, and outputs are analyzed for accuracy.
by Kevin Tarn Richards.
M.Eng.

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24

Azawi, Mayce al [Verfasser], and Thomas M. [Akademischer Betreuer] Breuel. "Statistical Language Modeling for Historical Documents using Weighted Finite-State Transducers and Long Short-Term Memory / Mayce Al Azawi. Betreuer: Thomas M Breuel." Kaiserslautern : Technische Universität Kaiserslautern, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1068504137/34.

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25

Becerra-Cordoba, Nancy. "Modeling land-cover change in the Amazon using historical pathways of land cover change and Markov chains. A case study of Rondõnia, Brazil." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/28322.

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The present dissertation research has three purposes: the first one is to predict anthropogenic deforestation caused by small farmers firstly using only pathways of past land cover change and secondly using demographic, socioeconomic and land cover data at the farm level. The second purpose is to compare the explanatory and predictive capacity of both approaches at identifying areas at high risk of deforestation among small farms in Rondõnia, Brazil. The third purpose is to test the assumptions of stationary probabilities and homogeneous subjects, both commonly used assumptions in predictive stochastic models applied to small farmers' deforestation decisions. This study uses the following data: household surveys, maps, satellite images and their land cover classification at the pixel level, and pathways of past land cover change for each farm. These data are available for a panel sample of farms in three municipios in Rondõnia, Brazil (Alto Paraiso, Nova União, and Rolim de Moura) and cover a ten-year period of study (1992-2002). Pathways of past land cover change are graphic representations in the form of flow charts that depict Land Cover Change (LCC) in each farm during the ten-year period of study. Pathways were constructed using satellite images, survey data and maps, and a set of interviews performed on a sub-sample of 70 farms. A panel data analysis of the estimated empirical probabilities was conducted to test for subject and time effects using a Fixed Group Effects Model (FGEM), specifically the Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV1) fixed effects technique. Finally, the two predictive modeling approaches are compared. The first modeling approach predicts future LCC using only past land cover change data in the form of empirical transitional probabilities of LCC obtained from pathways of past LCC. These empirical probabilities are used in a LSDV1 for fixed–group effects, a LSDV1 for fixed-time effects, and an Ordinary Least Square model (OLS) for the pooled sample. Results from these models are entered in a modified Markov chain model's matrix multiplication. The second modeling approach predicts future LCC using socio-demographic and economic survey variables at the household level. The survey data is used to perform a multinomial logit regression model to predict the LC class of each pixel. In order to compare the explanatory and predictive capacity of both modeling approaches, LCC predictions at the pixel level are summarized in terms of percentage of cells in which future LC was predicted correctly. Percentage of correct predicted land cover class is compared against actual pixel classification from satellite images. The presence of differences among farmers in the LSDV1-fixed group effect by farmer suggests that small farmers are not a homogeneous group in term of their probabilities of LCC and that further classification of farmers into homogeneous subgroups will depict better their LCC decisions. Changes in the total area of landholdings proved a stronger influence in farmer's LCC decisions in their main property (primary lot) when compared to changes in the area of the primary lot. Panel data analysis of the LCC empirical transition probabilities (LSDV1 fixed time effects model) does not find enough evidence to prefer the fixed time effects model when compared to a Ordinary Least Square (OLS) pooled version of the probabilities. When applying the results of the panel data analysis to a modified markov chain model the LSDV1-farmer model provided a slightly better accuracy (59.25% accuracy) than the LSDV1-time and the OLS-pooled models (57.54% and 57.18%, respectively). The main finding for policy and planning purposes is that owners type 1—with stable total landholdings over time—tend to preserve forest with a much higher probability (0.9033) than owner with subdividing or expanding properties (probs. of 0.0013 and 0.0030). The main implication for policy making and planning is to encourage primary forest preservation, given that the Markov chain analysis shows that primary forest changes into another land cover, it will never go back to this original land cover class. Policy and planning recommendations are provided to encourage owner type 1 to continue their pattern of high forest conservation rates. Some recommendations include: securing land titling, providing health care and alternative sources of income for the OT1's family members and elderly owners to remain in the lot. Future research is encouraged to explore spatial autocorrelation in the pixel's probabilities of land cover change, effects of local policies and macro-economic variables in the farmer's LCC decisions.
Ph. D.

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26

Kalkvik, Haakon Myklevoll. "Conservation and population biology: genetics, demography and habitat requirements of the Atlantic coast beach mice." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2012. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/5334.

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The conservation biology field seeks to preserve biodiversity and the processes shaping that variation. Conservation biology is intimately tied to evolutionary research, in order to identify evolutionary distinct lineages that may be in danger of disappearing. Interestingly, patterns and processes of lineage divergence and persistence change with respect to spatial and temporal scale. I seek to evaluate biodiversity, the factors that have shaped this heterogeneity, and how this variability persists. To accomplish this I used a phylogeographic approach as well as niche and population modeling on the Peromyscus maniculatus species group found widely distributed in North America. My emphasis was on the southeastern U.S. species P. polionotus and its distinct beach forms. At a continental scale, I found that environmental niches are likely involved in generating and/or maintaining genetic lineages within the P. maniculatus species group. These findings add to a growing number of studies that have identified lineages occupying different environmental spaces. At a regional scale, I supported the hypothesis that barrier islands on the Atlantic coast of Florida were colonized by an ancestral form of P. polionotus by a single colonization, from the central Florida area. Subsequently, at least two distinct lineages diverged (P. p. phasma and P. p. niveiventris). I also found evidence that suggests that the extinct form of beach mouse (P. p. decoloratus) is part of the P. p. phasma lineage. At the population level, I evaluated changes in genetic diversity in historical samples compared to those that experienced recent human encroachment on natural habitat I used tissue preserved in natural history collections to compare with live-trapped specimens, and found that P. p. niveiventris has maintained historical genetic diversity levels. I suggest that the continuation of historical levels of genetic diversity is due to the presence of a single large area of continuous habitat in the central portion of the species' current distribution. Finally, I evaluated the importance of scrub and beach habitat to the population dynamics of beach mice. Beach mice have traditionally have been associated with beach dunes rather than with the scrub habitat found more inland on barrier islands. Using almost three years of capture-recapture data from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), I created a stochastic matrix model to assess the relative contribution of populations from the two different habitats to a variety of demographic measures. Both field data and model results provided evidence that the population dynamics of beach mice may rely much more on scrub habitat than formerly documented. Overall, my research emphasized a hierarchical approach to evaluate biodiversity and the processes shaping differentiation at different spatial and temporal scales. The methods and findings give insight into speciation at different scales, and can be applied to a wide range of taxa for questions related to evolutionary and conservation biology.
ID: 031001408; System requirements: World Wide Web browser and PDF reader.; Mode of access: World Wide Web.; Adviser: Christopher L. Parkinson.; Co-adviser: I. Jack Stout.; Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Central Florida, 2012.; Includes bibliographical references.
Ph.D.
Doctorate
Biology
Sciences
Conservation Biology; Ecology and Organismal Biology

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27

Tuhá, Silvia. "Využití mračna bodů v informačním modelování budov." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2020. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-414319.

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The main aim of this master thesis is utilization of the laser scanning technology in the field of information modelling of historical objects (HBIM). The optimal workflow of creating the information model in the Autodesk Revit has been demonstrated. The workflow deals with the historical value of the object. For the purposes of this work, the object of the mausoleum Fabara has been selected. Furthermore, the master thesis focuses on the possibilities of publishing the resulting model.

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28

Stafne, Brice E. "Development and application of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model for assessment of modern and historical flow conditions of Upper Mississippi River Pool 8 near La Crosse, Wisconsin." Thesis, University of Iowa, 2012. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/3537.

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The Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) is a diverse and dynamic ecosystem that includes the main stem river channel, side channels, backwater floodplains and lakes, islands, wetlands, grasslands, and floodplain forests. The hydrology of this rich ecosystem is one of the key drivers for physical, chemical and biological processes. However, the hydrology and hydraulics of the UMRS has been drastically altered from its natural state as a result of the construction of the locks and dams in the 1930s. Beginning with the Water Resources Development Act of 1986, biologists, ecologists, and engineers have been working to restore the river to a more natural state within the current constraints imposed by the lock and dam system. In an effort to restore rivers to a more natural state, the determination of a hydraulic reference condition is essential to understanding the "why and how" of historical river system function. Understanding the fundamental processes of historical conditions will help prioritize resources and better quantify possible outcomes for riverine restoration. The main goal of this study was to construct a hydrodynamic reference condition for Pool 8 of the Upper Mississippi River System using hydrodynamic computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling. The CFD model will provide a better understanding of pre-impoundment flow conditions as compared to post-impoundment conditions today. The numerical model was constructed and developed primarily from a pre-impoundment 1890s topographic map with bathymetric cross-sections in the channels. The 1890s map and other sources from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers provided historic elevation and hydraulic reference data for model calibration. The calibrated historic model was then compared with a current model of similar scale representing post-impoundment conditions, allowing for quantitative analysis of the differences between the two conditions. Model results indicated large changes in average depth and average velocity between historic and current conditions in certain parts of the pool, while others remained relatively unchanged. For example, velocities decreased in main channel aquatic areas in the lower part of Pool 8 from an average of 0.6 m/s (2.0 ft/s) under historic conditions to 0.1 m/s (0.3 ft/s) under current conditions. In the same part of the pool, however, velocities in contiguous backwater areas remained relatively constant, with most remaining less than 0.25 m/s (0.82 ft/s). Additionally, in the lower part of the pool, discharge distribution between the floodplain areas and the main channel was historically much more dynamic, with flow concentrated in the main and secondary channels at discharges less than 2265 m3/s and in the floodplains at greater than 2265 m3/s. Under current conditions, discharge distribution is much less dynamic, with approximately 2/3 of the total discharge conveyed on the floodplain for all discharges modeled (283 m3/s to 2832 m3/s or 10,000 ft3/s to 100,000 ft3/s).

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29

Jones, Jess W. "Genetics, demography and modeling of freshwater mussel (Bivalvia: Unionidae) populations in the Clinch River, U.S.A." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/26288.

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Genetic variation was examined in two endangered mussel species, Epioblasma brevidens and E. capsaeformis, and a common species Lampsilis fasciola, in the Clinch River, TN, by screening mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and nuclear DNA microsatellites. These species use fish hosts with varying dispersal capabilities, ranging from low, moderate, and high, respectively. Patterns of mtDNA polymorphism exhibited different trends for long-term population sizes for each species during the Holocene (~10,000 ya to present); namely, E. brevidens has declined over time, E. capsaeformis has remained stable, and L. fasciola has expanded. Long-term effective population size (Ne) was smallest in E. brevidens, intermediate in E. capsaeformis, and highest in L. fasciola. Moderately diverged mtDNA lineages, perhaps indicative of secondary contact, were observed in E. brevidens and E. capsaeformis. High levels of gene flow (Nm) were estimated among demes of L. fasciola using traditional F-statistics and likelihood estimates of Nm, whereas such metrics were lower in E. brevidens and E. capsaeformis. Data are consistent with population dynamics and life history traits of each species and their fish hosts. Age, shell growth, and population demography of Epioblasma brevidens, E. capsaeformis, and Lampsilis fasciola were studied from 2004-2007 in a 32-km reach of the Clinch River, TN. Observed maximum age and length of E. brevidens was 28 y and 71.5 mm for males and 11 y and 56.6 mm for females; of E. capsaeformis, 12 y and 54.6 mm for males and 9 y and 48.6 mm for females; and of L. fasciola, 45 y and 91.3 mm for males and 13 y and 62.6 mm for females. For all three species, observed maximum age and length was greater among males than females. Estimated population size in this river reach was approximately 43,000 individuals for E. brevidens, 579,000 individuals for E. capsaeformis, and 30,000 individuals for L. fasciola. Mean recruitment y-1 of 1 y-old E. brevidens ranged from 7.1% to 20%, of E. capsaeformis from 4.0% to 32.4%, and of L. fasciola from 5.8% to 25.6%. Population growth rate y-1 was 24.9% for E. brevidens, 34.6% for E. capsaeformis, and -22.4% for L. fasciola. Mortality rates of females were higher than for males of E. capsaeformis and L. fasciola, but not E. brevidens. Juvenile mussels were collected but temporally and spatially variable in occurrence, and a significant component of the age-class structure of all three species. Recruitment was very high during 2006-2007 for E. capsaeformis and other species, likely due to low river discharges in the spring-summer of 2005-2007. Surplus individuals of E. brevidens and E. capsaeformis are currently available to conduct translocations for restoration purposes. Population modeling of Epioblasma brevidens and E. capsaeformis in the Clinch River was conducted to determine suitable harvest levels for translocation of sub-adults and adults, and to determine quantitative criteria for evaluating performance and recovery of extant and reintroduced populations. For both species, the recommended annual harvest was <1% of local population size to minimize risk of decline. Reintroduction modeling indicated that size of the initial population created during a 5 y build-up phase greatly affected final population size at 25 y, being similar to size at the end of the build-up phase, especially when expected growth rate was low, (e.g., 1-2%). Excluding age-0 individuals, age-1 juveniles or recruits on average comprised approximately 11% and 15% of a stable population of each species, respectively. The age-class distribution of a stable or growing population was characterized by multiple cohorts, to include juvenile recruits, sub-adults, and adults. Molecular genetic and demographic data indicated that the ratio of Ne/Nc was ~5% for both species. Based on this ratio and predicted declines of genetic variation at different population sizes, target sizes for reintroduced or recovered populations of each species should be â ¥5,000 individuals (Ne=250) and â ¥10,000 individuals (Ne=500), respectively, and should be comprised of multiple smaller demes spread throughout a river. Populations of both species are currently large enough to sustain harvest for translocation and reintroduction purposes, offering an effective species recovery strategy.
Ph. D.

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30

Otto, James. "A Search for Periodic and Quasi-Periodic Patterns in Select Proxy Data with a Goal to Understanding Temperature Variation." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2005. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc849601/.

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In this work over 200 temperature proxy data sets have been analyzed to determine if periodic and or quasi-periodic patterns exist in the data sets. References to the journal articles where data are recorded are provided. Chapter 1 serves an introduction to the problem of temperature determination in providing information on how various proxy data sources are derived. Examples are given of the techniques followed in producing proxy data that predict temperature for each method used. In chapter 2 temperature proxy data spanning the last 4000 years, from 2,000 BCE to 2,000 CE, are analyzed to determine if overarching patterns exist in proxy data sets. An average of over 100 proxy data sets was used to produce Figure 4. An overview of the data shows that several “peaks” can be identified. The data were then subjected to analysis using a series of frequency modulated cosine waves. This analysis led to a function that can be expressed by equation 3. The literature was examined to determine what mathematical models had been published to fit the experimental proxy data for temperature. A number of attempts have been made to fit data from limited data sets with some degree of success. Some other papers have used a sinusoidal function to best fit the changes in the temperature. After consideration of many published papers and reviewing long time streams of proxy data that appeared to have sine wave patterns, a new model was proposed for trial. As the patterns observed showed “almost” repeating sine cycles, a frequency modulated sine wave was chosen to obtain a best fit function. Although other papers have used a sinusoidal function to best fit the changes in the temperature, the “best fit” was limited. Thus, it was decided that a frequency modulated sine wave may be a better model that would provide a more precise fit. This proved to be the case and the more than 240 temperature proxy data sets were analyzed using Equation 3. In chapter 3 the time span for the proxy data was extended to cover the period of time 12,000 BCE to 2000 CE. The data were then tested by using the equation above to search for periodic/quasi-periodic patterns. These results are summarized under select conditions of time periods. In chapter 4 the interval of time is extended over 1,000,000 years of time to test for long period “periodic” changes in global temperature. These results are provided for overall analysis. The function f(x) as described above was used to test for periodic/quasi-periodic changes in the data. Chapter 5 provides an analysis of temperature proxy data for an interval of time of 3,000,000 years to establish how global temperature has varied during the last three million years. Some long-term quasi-periodic patterns are identified. Chapter 6 provides a summation of the model proposed for global temperature that can be expected if similar trends continue over future years as have prevailed for the past few million years. Data sets that were used in this work are tabulated in the appendices of this paper.

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31

Fisher, Tsz Man. "The 1852 Banda Arc Mega-thrust Earthquake and Tsunami in Indonesia." BYU ScholarsArchive, 2014. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/5674.

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In 1852, a five-minute long earthquake hit the Banda Arc region that was felt over most of Indonesia. It caused uplift of new islands and sent a tsunami across the Banda Sea that reached a height of 8 meters at Banda Neira and was also registered at Ambon, Saparua and other islands. Records of the 1852 earthquake at multiple locations provide the constraints needed to reconstruct the disastrous event through earthquake intensity analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami. Using tsunami heights and arrival times as the major constraints, best fit numerical models of the tsunami were constructed using Clawpack. These models indicate that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event along the Tanimbar Trough with a Mw of around 8.4. At least 10-15 meters of elastic strain energy has accumulated along the Tanimbar Through since the 1852 event, and the population in the region has increased exponentially. When another event occurs ≥ that in 1852, there will be many more people and treasure in harms way.

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32

Härlin, Lennermark Mikael. "Modeling of experimental studies of fluid and particle transport in porous media." Thesis, Örebro University, School of Science and Technology, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-7407.

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To extract metals and increase the pH value of water around a historical mine waste deposit a series of barrels are used. Polluted water is forced to pass inside these barrels where different filter materials purify the water. This research project is carried out in Sweden by MTM at Örebro University and Bergkraft in Kopparberg, titled “Methods for characterisation and remediation of historical mine waste”.

The fluid flow trough the filter materials in the barrels are needed to be understood, in order to improve the extracting process.

In this work a small transparent model filled with sand was made to visualise the fluid flow. In that model coloured water is representing the polluted water. To describe the flow in the transparent model a mathematical model is presented. The theory used in this work is the complex variable method in fluid dynamics together with numerical methods and computer programming. There is a pretty good match between the theoretical and experimental results presented in two dimensions. Continuing work could result in a three dimensional model with different geometries using the same technique.

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33

Herold, Hendrik. "An Evolutionary Approach to Adaptive Image Analysis for Retrieving and Long-term Monitoring Historical Land Use from Spatiotemporally Heterogeneous Map Sources." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2016. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-199355.

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Land use changes have become a major contributor to the anthropogenic global change. The ongoing dispersion and concentration of the human species, being at their orders unprecedented, have indisputably altered Earth’s surface and atmosphere. The effects are so salient and irreversible that a new geological epoch, following the interglacial Holocene, has been announced: the Anthropocene. While its onset is by some scholars dated back to the Neolithic revolution, it is commonly referred to the late 18th century. The rapid development since the industrial revolution and its implications gave rise to an increasing awareness of the extensive anthropogenic land change and led to an urgent need for sustainable strategies for land use and land management. By preserving of landscape and settlement patterns at discrete points in time, archival geospatial data sources such as remote sensing imagery and historical geotopographic maps, in particular, could give evidence of the dynamic land use change during this crucial period. In this context, this thesis set out to explore the potentials of retrospective geoinformation for monitoring, communicating, modeling and eventually understanding the complex and gradually evolving processes of land cover and land use change. Currently, large amounts of geospatial data sources such as archival maps are being worldwide made online accessible by libraries and national mapping agencies. Despite their abundance and relevance, the usage of historical land use and land cover information in research is still often hindered by the laborious visual interpretation, limiting the temporal and spatial coverage of studies. Thus, the core of the thesis is dedicated to the computational acquisition of geoinformation from archival map sources by means of digital image analysis. Based on a comprehensive review of literature as well as the data and proposed algorithms, two major challenges for long-term retrospective information acquisition and change detection were identified: first, the diversity of geographical entity representations over space and time, and second, the uncertainty inherent to both the data source itself and its utilization for land change detection. To address the former challenge, image segmentation is considered a global non-linear optimization problem. The segmentation methods and parameters are adjusted using a metaheuristic, evolutionary approach. For preserving adaptability in high level image analysis, a hybrid model- and data-driven strategy, combining a knowledge-based and a neural net classifier, is recommended. To address the second challenge, a probabilistic object- and field-based change detection approach for modeling the positional, thematic, and temporal uncertainty adherent to both data and processing, is developed. Experimental results indicate the suitability of the methodology in support of land change monitoring. In conclusion, potentials of application and directions for further research are given.

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34

Ramazan, Acun. "Modelling and retrieval of historical data." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 1994. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.756106.

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35

Otto, James (James Robert). "A Search for Periodic and Quasi-Periodic Patterns in Select Proxy Data with a Goal to Understanding Temperature Variation." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2016. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc849601/.

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In this work over 200 temperature proxy data sets have been analyzed to determine if periodic and or quasi-periodic patterns exist in the data sets. References to the journal articles where data are recorded are provided. Chapter 1 serves an introduction to the problem of temperature determination in providing information on how various proxy data sources are derived. Examples are given of the techniques followed in producing proxy data that predict temperature for each method used. In chapter 2 temperature proxy data spanning the last 4000 years, from 2,000 BCE to 2,000 CE, are analyzed to determine if overarching patterns exist in proxy data sets. An average of over 100 proxy data sets was used to produce Figure 4. An overview of the data shows that several “peaks” can be identified. The data were then subjected to analysis using a series of frequency modulated cosine waves. This analysis led to a function that can be expressed by equation 3. The literature was examined to determine what mathematical models had been published to fit the experimental proxy data for temperature. A number of attempts have been made to fit data from limited data sets with some degree of success. Some other papers have used a sinusoidal function to best fit the changes in the temperature. After consideration of many published papers and reviewing long time streams of proxy data that appeared to have sine wave patterns, a new model was proposed for trial. As the patterns observed showed “almost” repeating sine cycles, a frequency modulated sine wave was chosen to obtain a best fit function. Although other papers have used a sinusoidal function to best fit the changes in the temperature, the “best fit” was limited. Thus, it was decided that a frequency modulated sine wave may be a better model that would provide a more precise fit. This proved to be the case and the more than 240 temperature proxy data sets were analyzed using Equation 3. In chapter 3 the time span for the proxy data was extended to cover the period of time 12,000 BCE to 2000 CE. The data were then tested by using the equation above to search for periodic/quasi-periodic patterns. These results are summarized under select conditions of time periods. In chapter 4 the interval of time is extended over 1,000,000 years of time to test for long period “periodic” changes in global temperature. These results are provided for overall analysis. The function f(x) as described above was used to test for periodic/quasi-periodic changes in the data. Chapter 5 provides an analysis of temperature proxy data for an interval of time of 3,000,000 years to establish how global temperature has varied during the last three million years. Some long-term quasi-periodic patterns are identified. Chapter 6 provides a summation of the model proposed for global temperature that can be expected if similar trends continue over future years as have prevailed for the past few million years. Data sets that were used in this work are tabulated in the appendices of this paper.

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36

Potemski, Paulina. "Le rôle des femmes dans la résilience des sociétés humaines." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Troyes, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022TROY0027.

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L’androcentrisme, construction sociale et sociétale de nombreuses sociétés humaines à travers le temps et le monde, a conduit à la définition historique des rôles sociaux des femmes et des hommes tout en promouvant les actions et activités de ces derniers au détriment des premières. Le manque de visibilité s’applique à ce qu’elles ont pu ou peuvent réaliser pour une plus grande résilience des sociétés face aux difficultés et défis, passés, présents et à venir. La notion de résilience, utilisée dans les médias et dans différents domaines scientifiques, est définie ici comme processus dynamique regroupant la succession, si nécessaire et si adoptée, de trois temps : le maintien, l’adaptation avec des ajustements et la transformation. La résilience des sociétés humaines est un processus intégrant des interactions multiples avec l’environnement et le temps. La modélisation des expériences de vie de femmes dévoile des éléments spécifiques pour la réussite des transformations de vie. Ainsi, l’existence d’une quête de projet de vie amène à une détermination à poursuivre injustice ou difficulté ressenties. Une autre similarité est l’existence d’un élément déclencheur découlant d’une intervention pour la poursuite de la transformation de vie. Ces similitudes et différences sont intégrées dans une analyse comparative. Du fait de l’androcentrisme historique, les actions des femmes pour améliorer leur résilience, celle de leurs proches, et de leurs sociétés manquent toujours de visibilité. Ce rapport propose des pistes de recherches afin que ces actions soient mieux observées, voire, répliquer plus globalement
Androcentrism, a social and societal construct of many human societies throughout time and the world, has led to the historical definition of the social roles of women and men while promoting the actions and activities of the latter at the expense of the former. The lack of visibility also applies to what they have been able to achieve or can achieve for a greater resilience of human societies in the face of difficulties and challenges, past, present and future. The notion of resilience, used in the media and in different scientific fields, is defined here as a dynamic process involving the succession, if necessary and if adopted, of three phases: maintenance or conservation, adaptation with minor adjustments, and transformation. The resilience of human societies is a process integrating multiple interactions with the environment and time. The modeling of women's life experiences reveals specific elements for a successful transformation of their lives. Thus, the existence of a quest for a life project and a determination to pursue it in the face of perceived injustice or difficulty. Another similarity is the existence of a trigger resulting from an intervention to pursue the life transformation. These similarities and differences are integrated into a comparative analysis. Due to historical androcentrism, women's actions to improve their own resilience, that of their loved ones, and their societies, still lack visibility. This report proposes avenues paths for future research to better observe or even replicate these actions more globally

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37

Svensson, Carl. "Threat modelling of historical attacks with CySeMoL." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för datavetenskap och kommunikation (CSC), 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-170476.

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This report investigates the modelling power of the Cyber Security Modelling Language, CySeMoL by looking at three documented cyber attacks and attempting to model the respective systems in which they occurred. By doing this, strengths and weaknesses of the model are investigated and proposals for improvements to the CySeMoL model are explored.
Denna rapport undersöker modellingsförmågan hos Cyber Security Modelling Language, CySeMoL genom att titta på tre dokumenterade IT-angrepp och försöka modellera systemen som respektive attack skedde i. Genom att göra detta undersöks styrkor och svagheter i modellen och förslag på förbättringar till modellen utforskas.

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38

Piattoni, Quintilio. "Experimental analysis and modelling of historical masonries." Doctoral thesis, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/11566/241927.

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La preservazione e la conservazione delle murature storiche si basano anche su un’appropriata conoscenza delle loro tecniche costruttive e del loro comportamento meccanico. In passato la mancanza di un’appropriata conoscenza dell’influenza delle tecniche costruttive delle murature sul loro comportamento meccanico ha spesso causato interventi errati e poco efficaci e, in alcuni casi, l’incremento delle vulnerabilità strutturali. La scelta dei parametri che influenzano il comportamento meccanico delle murature non può essere demandato unicamente alla letteratura tecnica che spesso descrive solo le tipologie di muratura più diffuse e non tiene conto dell’influenza della tecnologia costruttiva locale sulle prestazioni meccaniche delle murature investigate. Partendo da queste considerazioni generali, alcune murature romaniche di una chiesa, costituite da frammenti di tegole e di mattoni di reimpiego, sono state studiate attraverso un approccio multidisciplinare. La prima fase della ricerca è stata l’analisi delle tecniche costruttive. Nella seconda fase sono state eseguite analisi di laboratorio per determinare le proprietà chimiche, fisiche e meccaniche dei materiali in opera (frammenti di tegole e di mattoni, malta). In una terza fase sono stati riprodotti dei provini di muratura impiegando gli stessi materiali e la stessa tecnica costruttiva delle murature investigate. Le prove di compressione sui provini di muratura hanno permesso di accertare l’influenza della tecnologia e della tecnica costruttiva sull’intero comportamento meccanico delle murature investigate ed, in generale, di incrementare la conoscenza attuale sulle murature storiche. Infine, il metodo NSCD (Non-Smooth Contact Dynamics method) è stato applicato per investigare il comportamento dinamico delle strutture in esame. Sono state eseguite delle analisi parametriche applicando un accelerogramma reale al basamento del modello tridimensionale della chiesa.
The preservation and the conservation of historical masonries are also based on an appropriate knowledge of their constructive techniques and their mechanical behaviour. In the past the lack of knowledge about the influence of the constructive techniques of the masonries on their mechanical behaviour had often caused wrong and out of context repairs and in some cases the increment of the structural vulnerabilities. The choice of the parameters that influence the mechanical behaviour cannot be delegate only to the technical literature, that often describe only the most common types of masonry and it does not take into account the influence of the local constructive technology on the mechanical performances of the investigated masonries. Starting from these general considerations, some Romanesque masonries, made by tile and brick fragments, of a church were studied by a multidisciplinary approach. The first step of the research was the analysis of the constructive techniques. In a second phase the analyses of the chemical, physical and mechanical properties of the original materials (tile and brick fragments, mortars) were carried out by laboratory tests. In a third phase, wall specimens were built with the same materials and constructive technique of the investigated masonries. The results of the compression tests on the reproduced wall specimens allowed to assess the influence of the technology and the constructive technique on the entire mechanical behaviour of the investigated masonries and, in general, to increment the current knowledge on the historical masonries. Finally, the Non-Smooth Contact Dynamics (NSCD) method was applied to investigate the dynamical behaviour of the considered structures. Parametric analyses were carried out considering a real earthquake accelerogram applied to the supporting base of the threedimensional church.

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39

Caillouet, Laurie. "Reconstruction hydrométéorologique des étiages historiques en France entre 1871 et 2012." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016GREAU011/document.

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Les étiages extrêmes entraînent souvent des conséquences importantes sur de multiples secteurs socio-économiques. Les récentes études liées au changement climatique semblent indiquer que ces événements risquent de devenir plus sévères et plus fréquents au cours des prochaines décennies. Malheureusement, le peu de données hydrométéorologiques disponibles avant les années 1970 ne permet pas de remettre dans un contexte historique les derniers événements observés ni ceux projetés par les études d'impact. Ces travaux de thèse s'attachent ainsi à améliorer l'état des connaissances sur les étiages extrêmes historiques ayant touché le territoire français depuis la fin du XIXe siècle grâce à une reconstruction hydrométéorologique. Ils proposent aussi un nouveau cadre méthodologique pour l'étude de ces extrêmes.Des informations sur la situation synoptique atmosphérique depuis la fin du XIXe siècle ont récemment été mises à disposition de la communauté via des réanalyses globales étendues comme la Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR). Ces travaux introduisent la méthode SCOPE qui permet de reconstruire la météorologie locale sur l'ensemble de la France à partir de la réanalyse 20CR. Elle produit un ensemble de 25 chroniques météorologiques spatialement homogènes de précipitations, température et évapotranspiration sur la période 1871-2012 et sur une grille de 64 km² recouvrant la France. Ces séries constituent le jeu de données SCOPE Climate, qui est ensuite utilisé comme forçage d'un modèle hydrologique sur un large échantillon de plus de 600 bassins versants français faiblement anthropisés. Un ensemble de 25 reconstructions de débits journaliers, appelé SCOPE Hydro, est ainsi produit entre 1871 et 2012. SCOPE Climate et SCOPE Hydro ont tous deux montré de bonnes performances en comparaison de données indépendantes de leur construction.Des événements spatio-temporels d'étiage extrême sont finalement identifiés et caractérisés à partir des chroniques de débit de SCOPE Hydro. Ces événements sont tout d'abord définis localement comme une période où le débit se trouve en-dessous d'un seuil mixte, combinaison d'un seuil fixe et d'un seuil variable avec la saison. Un regroupement spatial des événements locaux au sein du même événement spatio-temporel d'étiage extrême est effectué à l'échelle de la France, suivant une méthode spécialement mise au point dans le cadre de ces travaux. A l'issue de ces étapes, un événement peut être étudié localement ou à l'échelle nationale, grâce à des caractéristiques d'étendue, de durée ou de sévérité. Cette méthodologie permet d'identifier des événements exceptionnels d'étiage extrême anciens et peu connus (1878, 1893, 1942-1949), ou relativement récents mais peu documentés (1972, 1978, 1985), en plus de ceux connus (1921, 1976, 1989-1990, 2011). L'étude de l'évolution de ces événements sur 140 ans montre une plus grande proportion du territoire français touchée par des étiages extrêmes après les années 1940. Une comparaison des événements reconstruits à des sources documentaires faisant mention des sécheresses passées montre une bonne cohérence entre reconstructions et réalité.Ce travail de thèse contribue aux questions scientifiques d'actualité, notamment dans le cadre de la variabilité climatique et du changement climatique d'origine anthropique et de leurs conséquences hydrologiques. Ces travaux proposent deux méthodes innovantes sur la descente d'échelle statistique multivariée et l'identification spatio-temporelle des événements d'étiage extrême. Ils ont par ailleurs produit deux jeux de données hydroclimatiques ensemblistes de référence utilisables pour tout type d'étude climatique et hydrologique requérant une profondeur historique importante
Extreme low-flow events have significant consequences on numerous socio-economic fields. Hydroclimate projections for the 21st century suggest an increase in low-flow severity and frequency. Nevertheless, projected events as well as recent observed events can hardly be put into a sufficiently long historical perspective due to the lack of hydrometeorological data before the 1970s. This work proposes to improve the knowledge on past extreme low-flow events having affected France since the end of the 19th century thanks to a hydrometeorological reconstruction. It also provides a new methodological framework to study these extreme events.Information on the atmospheric synoptic situation since the end of the 19th century have recently been released to the scientific community through extended global reanalyses like the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR). This work introduces the SCOPE method that provides local meteorological reconstructions on the entire France derived from the 20CR reanalysis. SCOPE produces a 25-member ensemble of spatially coherent meteorological series of daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration over the 1871-2012 period and on a 64 km² grid covering France. This dataset, called SCOPE Climate, is then used as forcings to run continuous hydrological simulations over more than 600 near-natural French catchments leading to a 25-member ensemble of daily streamflow time series -- called SCOPE Hydro -- between 1871 and 2012. SCOPE Climate and SCOPE Hydro show a relatively high skill during validation experiments against independent data.Spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events are finally identified and characterised from SCOPE Hydro reconstructed series. The events are first locally identified based on deficit characteristics under a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A spatial matching procedure at the scale of France is developed in order to spatially assemble local extreme events into the same spatio-temporal event. After these steps, an event can either be studied at the local or national scale through its spatial extent, duration or severity characteristics. This work identified past and little known exceptional extreme events (1878, 1893, 1942-1949) or recent but poorly documented events (1972, 1978, 1985) besides well-known events (1921, 1976, 1989-1990, 2011). The evolution of these events since 1871 shows that a greater proportion of the French territory is affected by extreme low-flow events since the 1940s. A good coherence is found between reconstructed events and documentary sources on historical droughts.This work contributes to timely scientific issues, especially within the context of climate change and its hydrological impacts. This work proposes two innovative methods on multivariate statistical downscaling and spatio-temporal identification of extreme low-flow events. It also produced two reference hydroclimatic datasets that may be used in any study requiring long hydrometeorological series

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40

Höfler, Veit, Christine Wessollek, and Pierre Karrasch. "Knowledge-based modelling of historical surfaces using lidar data." SPIE, 2016. https://tud.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A35116.

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Currently in archaeological studies digital elevation models are mainly used especially in terms of shaded reliefs for the prospection of archaeological sites. Hesse (2010) provides a supporting software tool for the determination of local relief models during the prospection using LiDAR scans. Furthermore the search for relicts from WW2 is also in the focus of his research.¹ In James et al. (2006) the determined contour lines were used to reconstruct locations of archaeological artefacts such as buildings.² This study is much more and presents an innovative workflow of determining historical high resolution terrain surfaces using recent high resolution terrain models and sedimentological expert knowledge. Based on archaeological field studies (Franconian Saale near Bad Neustadt in Germany) the sedimentological analyses shows that archaeological interesting horizon and geomorphological expert knowledge in combination with particle size analyses (Köhn, DIN ISO 11277) are useful components for reconstructing surfaces of the early Middle Ages.³ Furthermore the paper traces how it is possible to use additional information (extracted from a recent digital terrain model) to support the process of determination historical surfaces. Conceptual this research is based on methodology of geomorphometry and geo-statistics. The basic idea is that the working procedure is based on the different input data. One aims at tracking the quantitative data and the other aims at processing the qualitative data. Thus, the first quantitative data were available for further processing, which were later processed with the qualitative data to convert them to historical heights. In the final stage of the work ow all gathered information are stored in a large data matrix for spatial interpolation using the geostatistical method of Kriging. Besides the historical surface, the algorithm also provides a first estimation of accuracy of the modelling. The presented workflow is characterized by a high exibility and the opportunity to include new available data in the process at any time.

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41

Wong, Debra Gail. "Modelling historic preservation tax incentives." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/78809.

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Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1985.
MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ROTCH
Supervised by Philip B. Herr. Vita.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 43-44).
by Debra Gail Wong.
M.C.P.

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42

Riou, Julien. "Épidémiologie comparée et prédictive des épidémies de maladies transmises par les moustiques du genre Aedes : application aux virus Zika et chikungunya A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission of emerging Aedes-transmitted epidemics using historical data." Thesis, Sorbonne université, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018SORUS356.

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Les moustiques du genre Aedes, en particulier Ae. aegypti et Ae. albopictus, ont connu une augmentation considérable de leurs densités de population et de leurs distributions géographiques au cours des dernières décennies, en lien avec l’urbanisation croissante et l’augmentation des échanges internationaux. Parallèlement, nous avons observé une résurgence des maladies transmises par ces vecteurs, avec notamment les émergences récentes du chikungunya à partir de 2005 et du Zika à partir de 2007. Des maladies plus anciennes comme la dengue ou la fièvre jaune ont aussi causé des épidémies de taille inhabituelle en Afrique et en Amérique du sud. Dans ce contexte, un premier objectif de ce travail a été de montrer que des maladies différentes mais présentant un certain nombre de similitudes (transmission par les même vecteurs, circulation dans les même territoires dans les mêmes populations), avaient des dynamiques épidémiques semblables. Nous avons analysé conjointement dix-huit épidémies successives de Zika et de chikungunya dans neuf îles de Polynésie française et des Antilles françaises en estimant séparément les effets du virus, du territoire et des conditions météorologiques. Nous avons montré que le Zika et le chikungunya ont des niveaux de transmissibilité similaires quand ils circulent dans le même territoire (ratio de transmission 1,04 [intervalle de crédibilité à 95\%: 0.97-1.13]) mais que les taux de détection étaient plus faibles pour le Zika (odds-ratio 0,37 [IC95%: 0,34-0,40]). Des fortes précipitations étaient associées à une baisse de transmission deux semaines plus tard, puis à une augmentation renouvelée après un délai de quatre à six semaines. Après la prise en compte de ces facteurs, une hétérogénéité persistait entre les différentes îles, soulignant l'importance de caractéristiques spécifiques aux populations et aux territoires touchés. Ces résultats, en quantifiant les relations entre maladies différentes, suggèrent qu'il est possible de prévoir l'évolution d'une épidémie dans un territoire donné en utilisant des informations sur d'autres épidémies transmises par le même vecteur par le passé. Dans un second travail, nous avons examiné cette hypothèse, l'appliquant rétrospectivement aux émergences de Zika dans trois îles des Antilles françaises. Les résultats indiquent qu'en situation d’émergence épidémique de Zika, l’utilisation de données historiques concernant des épidémies antérieures de chikungunya dans les mêmes territoires permet d’améliorer considérablement la fiabilité des prédictions réalisées à un stade précoce. Cette approche, basée sur des modèles épidémiques hiérarchiques et sur l'utilisation de distributions a priori informatives, pourrait dans certaines situations améliorer l'état de préparation des systèmes sanitaires faisant face à une nouvelle émergence
Two mosquito species belonging to the Aedes genus, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, have experienced in the last few decades a steep increase in population density and geographical range, in relation with the growth of urbanization and international trade. At the same time, we have observed a resurgence of diseases transmitted by these vectors, with in particular the recent emergence of chikungunya since 2005 and Zika since 2007. Known diseases such as dengue or yellow fever have also caused unusual epidemics in Africa and South America. In this context, a first objective of this work was to show that different diseases presenting a number of similarities (transmission by the same vectors, circulation in the same populations of the same territories), were associated with similar epidemic dynamics. We jointly analysed eighteen successive outbreaks of Zika and chikungunya in nine islands of French Polynesia and the French Antilles, disentangling the respective effects of the virus, territory and weather conditions. We showed that Zika and chikungunya have similar transmissibility levels when circulating in the same territory (transmission ratio 1.04 [95% credibility interval: 0.97-1.13]) but that reporting rates were lower for Zika (odds-ratio 0.37 [95\% CI: 0.34-0.40]). Heavy precipitation was associated with a decrease in transmission two weeks later, then a renewed increase after a delay of four to six weeks. After taking these factors into account, heterogeneity persisted between the different islands, highlighting the importance of specific characteristics of the affected populations and territories. By quantifying the relationships between different diseases, these results suggest that it is possible to forecast the evolution of an epidemic in a given territory by using information from other epidemics transmitted by the same vector in the past. In a second work, we tested this hypothesis, applying it retrospectively to the emergence of Zika in three islands of the French West Indies. The results indicate that, during a Zika outbreak, the use of historical data on previous chikungunya outbreaks in the same territories significantly improves the reliability of forecasts made at an early stage. This approach, based on hierarchical epidemic models and the use of informative prior distributions, could in some situations improve the preparedness of health systems facing a new emergence

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Endo, Yohei. "Modelling and structural analysis of historical masonry systems including vaulted structure." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/308502.

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The conservation of historic structures has been given special attention due to their cultural, social and economic importance. However they often show considerable structural vulnerability and have been seriously damaged by natural disasters including earthquakes. An excessive loss of architectural heritage has occurred because of earthquakes. A safety assessment and restoration practice on historical structures has been tackled extensively by professionals including architects and engineers. However, structural assessment of historical buildings is a complex task. Complexity comes from insufficient understanding of the characteristic of historical materials, limited knowledge of the seismic response of historical structures and yet-unknown structural deterioration due to the past natural disasters. Today it is perceived that nonlinear FEM analysis permits detailed study of historical masonry structures. However, in some cases, its application poses difficulties. The difficulties derive from the definition of material properties, the definition of a complex geometry and the analysis procedures. The results depend on the material properties considerably. However, it is not easy to describe appropriately the behaviour of historical materials including masonry in the FEM analysis. The definition of a complex geometry is challenging although the discretisation of accurate geometry is crucial. As for the analysis procedure, one of the difficulties is observed in seismic assessment. FEM-based nonlinear dynamic analysis permits close observation of seismic response of a historical masonry structure but it requires excessive computational effort, for a large-scale structure in particular. On the other hand, pushover can be adopted more efficiently than nonlinear dynamic analysis but the obtained result can be less reliable. All these considerations indicate that the understanding of FEM approaches still needs to be deepened to adopt more accurately and at the same time efficiently for the analysis of historical structures. The present research discusses the applicability of existing nonlinear FEM approaches to the study of masonry historical structures. The FEM analysis is adopted to the analysis of real and complex structures including mixed steel and masonry vaulted systems belonging to the Hospital de Sant Pau in Barcelona and a large single-nave church damaged by the 2009 Abruzzo earthquake. As a final outcome of the research, the conclusions provided criteria and guidelines for the analysis of these types of structures under vertical loading and seismic forces. The achievement of the research will contribute to both engineers and researchers who are involved in the conservation of historical masonry structures especially by means of FEM analysis.
La conservación de las estructuras históricas llama la atención debido a su importancia cultural, social y económica. Sin embargo, muestran considerablemente vulnerabilidad estructural y se han dañado seriamente por desastres naturales como terremotos. La excesiva pérdida de patrimonio arquitectónico ha ocurrido a causa de los terremotos. Se ha llevado a cabo la evaluación de la seguridad y la práctica de restauración de estructuras históricas ampliamente por los profesionales incluso arquitectos e ingenieros. No obstante, la evaluación estructural de los edificios históricos es una tarea compleja. La complejidad viene de la comprensión insuficiente de las características de los materiales históricos, conocimiento limitado de la respuesta sísmica de estructuras históricas y deterioro estructural todavía desconocido debido a los desastres naturales pasados. Hoy en día se percibe que el análisis de elementos finitos (FEA) no lineal permite el estudio detallado de las estructuras de mampostería históricos. Con todo, en algunos casos, no es sencilla la aplicación de ello. Las dificultades vienen de la definición de las propiedades del material, la definición de una geometría compleja y los procedimientos de análisis. Los resultados dependen de las propiedades del material considerablemente. Sin embargo, no es fácil describir adecuadamente en el FEA el comportamiento de materiales históricos como mampostería. Es difícil definir la geometría compleja es crucial aunque la discretización de la geometría exacta. En cuanto al procedimiento de análisis, se observa una de las dificultades en la evaluación sísmica. Análisis dinámico no lineal del FEA permite la observación precisa de la respuesta sísmica de las estructuras de mampostería histórica pero requiere el esfuerzo computacional excesivo, especialmente por una estructura a gran escala. Por otro lado, pushover puede ser más eficiente que el análisis dinámico no lineal pero el resultado obtenido por ello puede ser menos fiable. Estas consideraciones indican que la compresión del FEA necesita profundizarse para que se adopte FEA más precisamente y más eficientemente para el análisis de estructuras históricas. La presente investigación analiza la aplicabilidad del FEA no lineal acerca del estudio de las estructuras históricas de mampostería. El FEA se adopta para el análisis de las estructuras reales y complejas incluso los sistemas abovedados de la combinación del acero y mampostería pertenecientes al Hospital de Sant Pau de Barcelona y una gran iglesia de una sola nave dañada por el terremoto de Abruzzo 2009. Como resultado final de la investigación, las conclusiones presentan criterios y directrices para el análisis de estés tipos de estructuras bajo cargas verticales y sísmicas. El fruto de la investigación contribuirá a ambos ingenieros e investigadores que participan en la conservación de las estructuras de mampostería históricos sobre todo por medio del FEA.

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44

Svedjemo, Gustaf. "Ontology as Conceptual Schema when Modelling Historical Maps for Database Storage." Licentiate thesis, Gotland University, Gotland University, Gotland University, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hgo:diva-35.

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Sweden has an enormous treasure in its vast number of large-scale historical maps from a period of 400 years made for different purposes, that we call map series. The maps are also very time and regional dependent with respect to their concepts. A large scanning project by Lantmäteriverket will make most of these maps available as raster images. In many disciplines in the humanities and social sciences, like history, human geography and archaeology, historical maps are of great importance as a source of information. They are used frequently in different studies for a variety of problems. A full and systematic analyse of this material from a database perspective has so far not been conducted. During the last decade or two, it has been more and more common to use data from historical maps in GIS-analysis. In this thesis a novel approach to model these maps is tested. The method is based on the modelling of each map series as its own ontology, thus focusing on the unique concepts of each map series. The scope of this work is a map series covering the province of Gotland produced during the period 1693-1705. These maps have extensive text descriptions concerned with different aspects of the mapped features. Via a code marking system they are attached to the maps. In this thesis a semantic analysis and an ontology over all the concepts found in the maps and text descriptions are presented. In our project we model the maps as close to the original structure as possible with a very data oriented view. Furthermore; we demonstrate how this ontology can be used as a conceptual schema for a logical E/R database schema. The Ontology is described in terms of the Protégé meta-model and the E/R schema in UML. The mapping between the two is a set of elementary rules, which are easy for a human to comprehend, but hard to automate. The E/R schema is implemented in a demonstration system. Examples of some different applications which are feasibly to perform by the system are presented. These examples go beyond the traditional use of historical maps in GIS today

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45

Bionda, Davide. "Modelling indoor climate and salt behaviour in historical buildings: A case study /." Zürich : ETH, 2006. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=diss&nr=16567.

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46

Karimian, Simin. "A computational modelling strategy for historic masonry structures." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2015. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/9569/.

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The inherent complexities of masonry structures make prediction of their life expectancy very challenging. Moreover, the combined actions of time-dependent defects in structures under sustained stress greatly influence the stability and safety of these structures. Consequently, it is very difficult to identify and simulate such defects in a realistic manner without the knowledge of, and access to, the mechanical properties of the constituent materials, the construction details and the long-term effects of weathering. As a result, it is difficult to make any accurate predictions of the long-term deformation, stability and safety of the historic masonry. This thesis describes a computational modelling strategy for the structural analysis of historic masonry structures subjected to static loading. The modelling strategy includes loss of section effects (caused by freeze-thaw action, salt crystallisation damage and exfoliation); creep and creep-induced cracking. The proposed strategy also includes the effects of reconstruction and repair. This approach should help those responsible for the operation and management of historic masonry structures to make better informed decisions about safety, stability and maintenance in the future. The computational strategy employs the finite element method, using an elastic-plastic constitutive law for masonry, to develop a computational tool using Abaqus software. The tool was used to predict the structural response of a tall solid brickwork pier of a multi-span Victorian former railway viaduct in Whitby, Northern England. The pier is known to have suffered from a loss of section caused by frost damage and parts of it have been repaired with replacement brickwork. The pier also has clear visible signs of vertical cracking in the regions above its foundation. As there are no signs of settlement, it has been assumed that these cracks have been induced by long-term creep effects. In spite of the inherent variability of masonry and the uncertainties in the material parameters and mechanical behaviour, quite good correlation was obtained between the crack patterns in the pier predicted using the computational tool and those observed in the real viaduct, thus, validating the strategy. The findings of this research allow for simple, flexible and reliable structural analysis of present state and predictions of future conditions of historic masonry structures.

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Remo, Jonathan W. "Utilizing archival data to assess historic changes in flood flow conveyance of the Mississippi River." OpenSIUC, 2008. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/dissertations/259.

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The assessment of change in river systems requires reference conditions. However, most large navigable waterways in the United States and elsewhere around the world have a wealth of archival data because of past engineering projects and flood control efforts. For example, in the United States, large quantities of archival data are available for the Mississippi River System which can be used to assess historical baseline conditions and change. Maps, charts, surveys, structure-history databases, and other quantitative measurements stretch back 100 to as much as ~200 years. The purpose of his dissertation was to develop a robust methodology from which to use these archival data to establish historic reference conditions in order to quantify and assess the causes of change in flood levels. Since the early 19th century, the Middle and Lower Mississippi River (MMR and LMR) have been intensively modified for flood protection and commercial navigation. In order to quantify the effects of levee expansion, channel modification, and land-cover change upon flood stages, a 1-D unsteady flow model was developed for multiple historical reference conditions ("retro-models") for three large study reaches (225-315 km each): one along the MMR and two reaches along the LMR. For each reference condition, four 1-D unsteady-flow models were developed. These models include a calibrated model of actual conditions and three "scenario" models: 1) a model with levees of the next time step, 2) a model with the channel geometry of the next time step, and 3) a model with floodplain roughness (i.e., land cover) of the next time step. Comparison of the model for actual conditions and the scenario models provide a quantitative assessment of levee expansion, channel modification, and land-cover change on stage. Comparison of the modeling results for this investigation showed significant changes in stage for equal discharges between each of the modeled time steps. Changes in stage for the three modeled reaches ranged from -3.1 to 4.4 m. The largest changes in flood stage were found along the MMR. The largest decreases in flood levels were found along the LMR between Obion and Memphis, TN. These results confirm previous hydrologic analyses, but show stage-changes as continuous longitudinal profile and not just at gaging stations. Scenario modeling suggests that the majority (38 to 70%) of the changes in flood stage on the LMR and MMR study reaches can be attributed to changes in channel geometry and hydraulic roughness. Levees were the next largest contributor to changes in flood stage. For time steps with significant levee expansion, these structures increase stage up to 1.0 m. Observed changes in floodplain land cover were associated with little (or none) of the increase in flood stage. These result show changes in channel geometry and roughness related to river engineering tools employed for the facilitation of navigation and flood conveyance are the principal drivers of historic changes in flood stages along the LMR and MMR. The results from the 1-D scenario model assessment suggest wing dikes may broadly affect flow conveyance in two ways: (1) through direct interaction with flow and (2) indirectly by their effects on channel geometry and roughness. Direct effects of wing dikes on flood stage were assessed by constructing two 2-D hydrodynamic models: (1) a calibrated model of actual conditions (i.e., with wing dikes) and (2) a scenario model without wing dikes, for a heavily modified reach of the MMR. Comparison of the model of actual conditions and model without wing dikes revealed that direct effects of wing dikes increase stage, modestly by only 0.1 to 0.5 m, depending on discharge and location. Wing dikes also were shown to increase and decrease channel velocities. Local increases in flow velocities of up to 0.4 m/s were found along portions of the main channel. Decreases in flow velocity by as much as -2.0 m/s were found along the edge of the channel within the wing dike fields. The direct effects of wing dikes on flow conveyance also were observed to decrease with an increase in flow, a result that runs contrary to the total cumulative effects of wing dikes observed empirically. These results suggest that the indirect effects are the likely cause of the historic decreased in flood flow conveyance and large-scale increases in flood stages along portions of the MMR.

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DiCarlo, Morgan. "Statistically Evaluating Water Consumption Historically and Across Multiple Users in Virginia." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/95911.

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This study explores key aspects of water usage in Virginia via a broad-scale analysis of multiple water users through thirty years of time-series records from the Virginia Water Use Data System. A full spectrum of users is considered, including water used for energy, industrial, agricultural and municipal applications. The extent of the relationship between the volume of water used and drivers like economic and climatic conditions are not well defined in humid environments like Virginia. Mann-Kendall testing is applied to identify water use trends through time both statewide and at the county level. A panel regression is employed to identify relationships between water use and explanatory variables of climatic and economic conditions, both spatially and temporally. Key trends include that industrial and energy sector water withdrawals per facility are significantly decreasing over time. Water used for agricultural applications was found to increase on warmer than average years and decrease on wetter than average years, indicating the panel regression methodology successfully demonstrated and quantified intuitive trends. Interestingly, municipal and industrial water usage had a statistically significant relationship with the Gini coefficient, a measure of inequality in rainfall distribution, indicating intraseasonal variability may play an important role in water use trends that is not apparent using seasonal averages alone. Overall, this work contributes to the understanding of water use trends at the state level for Virginia, and better characterizes long-term trends and short-term variability in water withdrawal.
MS

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Helaire, Lumas Terence. "Modeling of Historic Columbia River Flood Impacts Based on Delft 3D Simulations." PDXScholar, 2016. http://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/3206.

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Natural and anthropogenic processes over the past 150 years have altered the bathymetry of the Lower Columbia River (LCR) and have changed the long wave propagation of tides and floods. Possible causes for the increase in tidal amplitudes (+7% in tidal range in Astoria) are decreases in river discharge, lengthening of the river channel due to the construction of jetties at the mouth, dredging and deepening of the shipping channel, and reduction of the tidal prism due to the filling and diking of tidal wetlands. In this study, changes in the characteristics of long waves are elucidated by developing two hydrodynamic models of the LCR which reflect historical and modern bathymetric conditions and forcing. The historic model simulates late 19th century conditions and is extensively validated using recently recovered tide records along the LCR (e.g., Astoria, 1853-1876) and river stage measurements (e.g., Portland, 1876-1964). Results suggest that water levels in Portland at low river discharge are up to 0.5-1.0m lower than in the past. However, historical water levels during a flood scenario based on the 1880 spring freshet are similar to modern water levels. Since tidal range in the modern scenario is persistently higher at all locations, the flood risk in many locations along the LCR has increased for the same boundary conditions. The results are explained by considering the governing equations of momentum and mass-conservation. At low river flow, greater depth leads to reduced frictional effects, producing amplified tidal range and tidal velocities but a decreased river slope (and lower Portland water levels). At high flow, the modern flood is confined by dikes and the loss of wetlands, which counteracts the effect of decreased friction. Nonetheless, the high friction of the historical wooded floodplain also confined the historical flood path. Hence, historical and modern flood heights are surprisingly similar, though scaling analysis suggests that the historical flood wave was more diffusive.

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Koseoglu, Gulsum Cagil. "Investigation Of A Damaged Historical Mosque With Finite Element Analysis." Master's thesis, METU, 2011. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12613351/index.pdf.

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Historic structures form a very important part of our cultural heritage and should be well protected. Therefore, full comprehension of the structural behavior of historic structures is of prior importance. A seriously damaged single domed mosque of 16th century Classical Ottoman Architecture was investigated in this study. Serious damages have been observed at various structural elements including the dome and the structural masonry walls, recently leading the structure'
s closure to service. The main objective of this study is to find out the possible reasons of the damage. The Mosque was constructed on silty-clay soil and the water table has been changed considerably due to the drought in recent years causing soil displacements. The structure is modeled with linear finite element approach. The masonry walls are modeled with homogenized macro shell elements. The change in water table is imposed on the Mosque as displacement at foundation joints. The results of the analyses have been compared with the observed damage and the finite element model has been calibrated according to the observed damage. Some rehabilitation methods have also been proposed. Mini pile application up to firm soil (rock) was recommended to prevent the soil displacement. A steel ring around the damaged dome base was proposed to avoid any further propagation of cracks. Furthermore, the cracks on the masonry walls should also be repaired with a suitable material that is also compatible with the historic texture.

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