Статті в журналах з теми "HERSHEY COMPANY"

Abstract The transportation function is critical to efficient and effective logistical operations. In order to improve transportation performance, it may be necessary for firms to form closer relationships with their carriers. Unfortunately, there are few studies examining the nuances and outcomes of shipper-carrier relationships. The focus of this work is to delineate the levels of relational closeness found between shippers and carriers and to assess the effects of relational closeness on carrier performance. Based on data and expertise provided by The Hershey Company, a major U.S. confectionary corporation, this research utilizes qualitative and quantitative techniques to accomplish these tasks. Findings indicate that closer relationships between shippers and carriers have no effect on carriers' on-time performance but significantly influence carriers' willingness to commit assets to the shipper and accept loads during times of constrained transportation capacity.

Abstract The transportation function is critical to efficient and effective logistical operations. In order to improve transportation performance, it may be necessary for firms to form closer relationships with their carriers. Unfortunately, there are few studies examining the nuances and outcomes of shipper-carrier relationships. The focus of this work is to delineate the levels of relational closeness found between shippers and carriers and to assess the effects of relational closeness on carrier performance. Based on data and expertise provided by The Hershey Company, a major U.S. confectionary corporation, this research utilizes qualitative and quantitative techniques to accomplish these tasks. Findings indicate that closer relationships between shippers and carriers have no effect on carriers' on-time performance but significantly influence carriers' willingness to commit assets to the shipper and accept loads during times of constrained transportation capacity.

Research background:The progress of business activity depends on current trends in customer shopping behavior in a global environment. The current trend is also becoming a factor of irrationality, which enters the process of purchasing behavior. It is supported by the emotions and desires of consumers. In this sense, it is important to understand the irrational behavior of customers and respect the individual behavioral characteristics in the sales process. By respecting these characteristics, a company can strengthen its brand and marketing strategy with a view to gaining a global competitive advantage. Research will highlight the importance of irrational customer behaviour between the global Lindt and Hershey brands. We will find out whether the pricing policy and the discount are important for influencing shopping behaviour.Purpose of the article:In the article, we pointed out the importance of behavioral characteristics of irrational shopping behaviour in the above-mentioned global brands. We will confirm whether the research of Dr. Ariely and despite the current trends, irrationality prevails in shopping behaviour in the environment of Slovak customers.Methods:In order to assess the theoretical assumptions of behavioral economics and irrational shopping behavior, we used methods of analysis, synthesis. In the analytical part of the article, we also used the method of sociological questioning in order to ensure the credibility of the entire research. In the discussion part of the article, we used the method of induction.Findings & Value added:Pointing out the importance and connection of irrational purchasing behavior in the application of the company’s marketing strategy in a global market environment.

This paper discusses the entry of Hershey’s Chocolates Company tothe Australian market with a new brand. For this purpose, background information and key performance indicators about the firm are presented. Also target customers and market summary, market demographics and target customer profile of the firm are mentioned in the context of situational analysis. Then,Hershey’s entry to the Australian market with a new product is proposed by providing and commenting on SWOT analysis, competition environment, accounting-finance indicators, marketing strategy and marketing mix (4P) factors. Thus, a deeper focus on the organization is realized and shared. As aresult, firm’s entry to the Australian market is discussed with a new product by suggesting recent and altered target customer base, customer profile,marketing strategy and marketing mix. Our study evaluates the potential disadvantages and advantages in detail and argues that there is a need for Hershey’s to enter the Australian market with a new product. In general, this article discusses and defends the entry of Hershey’s to Australian market witha new product by logical reasoning and draws a strategic roadmad to reach this goal.

AbstractUnderstanding the evolution of galaxies from the starforming blue cloud to the quiescent red sequence has been revolutionized by observations taken with Herschel Space Observatory, and the onset of the era of sensitive millimeter interferometers, allowing astronomers to probe both cold dust as well as the cool interstellar medium in a large set of galaxies with unprecedented sensitivity. Recent Herschel observations of of H2-bright Hickson Compact Groups of galaxies (HCGs) has shown that [C ii] may be boosted in diffuse shocked gas. CARMA CO(1–0) observations of these [C ii]-bright HCGs has shown that these turbulent systems also can show suppression of SF. Here we present preliminary results from observations of HCGs with Herschel and CARMA, and their [C ii] and CO(1–0) properties to discuss how shocks influence galaxy transitions and star formation.

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in general, grow and develop from the bottom armed with the spirit of entrepreneurship.After survived and developed into a company, usually a family company that is driven by human resources that have a family linkage to each other. As a family company that emphasizes harmony, need a central figure as a leader capable of moving the company effectively. The effectiveness of leadership in family firms in the model of situational leadership is largely determined by the adjustment of the maturity of the employees with the leadership style practiced. In the event of compliance hence could be expected would be easy to achieve corporate objectives include achieving sustained earnings growth that is sustainable. One indicator of leadership effectiveness is the satisfaction and performance improvement. Indicated satisfaction with the feeling satisfied and happy under certain circumstances surrounding the employees' daily work, including: how leaders deal with employees, provide fringe benefits, providing a space of expression, and others. This research examines the relationship between leadership effectiveness with satisfaction. Leadership model using the situational leadership theory of Hersey-Blanchard. The results turned out to support the theory that there is a positive and significant relationship between leadership effectiveness and job satisfaction.

There is growing interest in multi-nozzle array printing, as it has the potential to increase productivity and produce more intricate products. However, a key challenge is ensuring consistent flow across each outlet. In the heat exchangers, achieving uniform distribution of flow in parallel channels is a classic goal. To address this issue in multi-nozzle array direct printing technology, high-viscosity slurry fluids can be utilized in place of water, and the structure of compact parallel channels can be employed. This study experimentally and numerically investigated the flow distribution law of Herschel-Bulkley fluids (high-viscosity slurry fluids) entering each manifold of the compact parallel channels, which contained a single circular inlet and multiple outlets. The research identified two types of factors that impact the non-uniformity flow coefficient (Φ), which reflects the uniformity of flow distribution in each channel of the structure: entrance and exit conditions (V, P1, P2) that have a negligible effect on Φ, and structural dimensions (D, S, L, N, A, d) that are the primary influence factors. By analyzing the experimental results, a prediction model was derived that could accurately calculate Φ (error < 0.05) based on three structural dimensions: A, S, and L. Through proper design of these structural dimensions, a consistent flow rate of each channel of the parallel channels can be ensured.

The chaos associated with the rapid development of digital technologies that have filled the economy has become a powerful demotivator of the workforce in education, career growth, and high productivity. In these conditions, the need arose for new leadership capable of developing and implementing strategies, managing personnel, inspiring and motivating. The object of the research is strategic leadership skills in the digital economy. The purpose of the paper is to describe the qualities of a modern strategic leader that are required to manage a company (region or country) in the digital economy. The author applies methods of analysis of scientific literature of domestic and foreign authors, international organizations. The study was based on the strategizing methodology of Vladimir L. Kvint, Foreign Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor, Doctor of Economics. The article examines the characteristics required for a strategic leader according to J. Maxwell, P. Hersey and C. Blanchard, D. Goleman, R. Boyatzis, A. McKee and R.K. Greenleaf, and the World Economic Forum. Based on the results of the study, the author developed guidelines for the formation of the necessary skills for state, regional, municipal and corporate leaders, opt to effectively realize themselves in the digital economy. The results of the paper may be useful for state, regional, municipal authorities, as well as in the corporate sector.

Abstract The nature of molecular clouds and their statistical behavior in subsolar metallicity environments are not fully explored yet. We analyzed data from an unbiased CO (J = 2–1) survey at the spatial resolution of ∼2 pc in the northern region of the Small Magellanic Cloud with the Atacama Compact Array to characterize the CO cloud properties. A cloud-decomposition analysis identified 426 spatially/velocity-independent CO clouds and their substructures. Based on the cross-matching with known infrared catalogs by Spitzer and Herschel, more than 90% CO clouds show spatial correlations with point sources. We investigated the basic properties of the CO clouds and found that the radius–velocity linewidth (R–σ v ) relation follows the Milky Way-like power-law exponent, but the intercept is ∼1.5 times lower than that in the Milky Way. The mass functions (dN/dM) of the CO luminosity and virial mass are characterized by an exponent of ∼1.7, which is consistent with previously reported values in the Large Magellanic Cloud and in the Milky Way.

AbstractThe Planck Collaboration has produced catalogues of radio and sub-millimeter compact sources at the nine Planck frequencies in total intensity and polarization. In particular, the 2015 Second Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources (PCCS2) contains over 45.000 sources detected in the Planck full mission maps. Since the Planck instruments have polarization capabilities in seven of its nine detectors, we were able to measure the polarized flux density of over 600 sources between 30 and 353 GHz. But we are searching not only for compact sources in single frequency maps, and we take advantage of the large frequency coverage of Planck to search for objects with specific emission laws. This is the case of the SZ catalogue of cluster of galaxies (PSZ2), that lists 1653 clusters, 1203 of which are confirmed clusters with clear associations in external data-sets, and the Galactic cold clump catalogue (PGCC) with 13188 objects. The Planck Collaboration has also published a list of high-redshift source candidates (see the report by Ludovic Montier here). These objects are rare bright sub-millimeter sources with an spectral energy distribution peaking between 353 and 857 GHz, and have been detected combining Planck and IRAS data. The colours of most of these objects are consistent with redshifts z>2, a fraction of which could be lensed objects with redshifts between 2 and 4.But new catalogues are foreseen. A multi-frequency compact source catalogue is being produced selecting sources at radio frequencies and studying them across all Planck bands. Multi-frequency catalogues can be difficult to produce in experiments like Planck that have a large frequency coverage and very different resolutions across bands. In some cases, a source can be very bright across the whole Planck frequency range and it is easy to do the associations across channels. However, it frequent to find unrelated sub-millimeter sources within the half-degree beam of the 30 GHz low frequency detector, and the association work must be done with great care. For this purpose, we are combining a multi-frequency detection procedure with a principal component analysis to produce the catalogue. In addition, for those sources where a clear identification can be made, we will attempt to include flux density information from Herschel and other experiments, in particular for those blazars that are bright in radio, sub-mm and even in gamma-ray frequencies, as seen by Fermi. Moreover, Planck has made available to the community the single survey frequency maps that allow astronomers to study the long-term variability of their favourite sources. New functionalities will be also added to the Planck Legacy Archive†, for example a timeline-cutting tool that will allow one to produce full-sky maps from the Planck timelines for specific periods of time allowing for short-term variability studies of compact sources (e.g., flares). The unique frequency coverage of Planck make these catalogues very valuable for other experiments using the Planck compact source catalogues. For example, experiments like QUIJOTE use Planck selected sources to study the impact of polarized radio source emission on their cosmological fields and other CMB experiments will use Planck polarized compact source information for calibration.

Synopsis AfrobitLink Ltd was an information technology (IT) firm with headquarters in Lagos, Nigeria. AfrobitLink started as a very small IT firm with less than two dozen staff. Within a few years of its founding, AfrobitLink established itself as a dependable organization known for delivering high-quality IT services. However, starting in 2004, AfrobitLink experienced rapid growth as it expanded to serve the telecommunications firms taking advantage of the deregulated market. This rapid expansion resulted in many challenges for AfrobitLink. The firm rapidly expanded into all 36 states in Nigeria, hiring a manager to oversee the company’s operations in each of the states. Poor hiring practices, inadequate training, excessive spans of control, low accountability, a subjective reward system, and other cultural issues, such as a relaxed attitude to time, resulted in low motivation, high employee turnover, poor customer service, and financial losses. By 2013, the firm was operating at a loss and its reputation was in shambles. Generally, the culture was toxic: employees did not identify with the firm or care about its goals, there were no performance standards, employees were not held accountable, self-interest and discrimination prevailed. The organization was in a downward spiral. Consultants were hired to help sort out the firm’s problems but these efforts yielded few results. Ken Wilson, the founder’s son, was hired in 2014 as VP of Administration to help get the firm back on track. As a change agent, Ken had to decide how to address the issues facing the firm and how to achieve profitable growth. Research methodology Primary sources included interviews with the company CEO, his wife, his son, and a volunteer staff member. Secondary sources included the company website. The names of the people and the firm in the case have been changed to provide anonymity. Relevant courses and levels This case is intended for use in graduate courses (although it can also be used in upper level undergraduate courses) in change management/organization development, organizational behavior, leadership, or international management. For graduate courses, students may focus on application or integration of several theories or concepts. For upper level undergraduate courses, students may focus on application of a single theory or concept. Below are suggested texts or readings for each type of student by subject. Theoretical bases Change management theories (e.g. Lewin’s force field analysis (Schein, 1996), Kotter’s eight-step change management process (Kotter, 2007), The change kaleidoscope approach (Balogun and Hailey, 2008)), social identity theory (Tajfel, 1981), attribution theory (Kelley, 1972), leadership theories (e.g. Hersey and Blanchard, 1969), intercultural/international management theories (e.g. Hofstede, 1980, 1991).

Eni Starts Area 1 Production off Mexico via MODEC FPSO MODEC said first oil has flowed through FPSO MIAMTE MV34 operating in the Offshore Area 1 block in the Bay of Campeche off Mexico. The contractor was appointed by Eni Mexico for the supply, charter, and operation of the FPSO in the Eni-operated Offshore Area 1 block in 2018. The charter contract will run for an initial 15 years, with options for extension every year thereafter up to 5 additional years. Moored in a water depth of approximately 32 m some 10 km off Mexico’s coast, the FPSO is capable of handling 90,000 B/D of oil, 75 MMcf/D of gas, and 120,000 B/D of water injection with a storage capacity of 700,000 bbl of oil. The FPSO boasts a disconnectable tower yoke mooring system, a first-of-its-kind design in the industry. The system was developed to moor the FPSO in shallow water, while also allowing the unit to disconnect its mooring and depart the area to avoid winter storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. The mooring system was developed by MODEC subsidiary SOFEC Inc. The mooring jacket was fabricated in Altamira, Mexico. Eni Starts Production from Ndungu EP Development Italy’s Eni has started production from the Ndungu Early Production (EP) development in Block 15/06 of the Angolan deep offshore, via the Ngoma FPSO. With an expected production rate in the range of 20,000 B/D, the project will sustain the plateau of the Ngoma, a 100,000-B/D, zero-discharge, and zero-process-flaring FPSO, upgraded in 2021 to minimize emissions. A further exploration and delineation campaign will be performed in Q2 2022 to assess the full potential of the overall assets of Ndungu. Ndungu EP is the third startup achieved by Eni Angola in Block 15/06 in the past 7 months, after Cuica Early Production and the Cabaca North Development Project. Block 15/06 is operated by Eni Angola with a 36.84% share. Sonangol Pesquisa e Produção (36.84%) and SSI Fifteen Ltd. (26.32%) comprise the rest of the joint venture. Aramco Discovers Natural Gas in Four Regions Saudi Aramco has discovered natural gas fields in four regions of the kingdom, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported, citing Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. The fields were found in the Empty Quarter desert located in the central area of the kingdom, near its northern border and in the eastern region, he said, according to SPA. Saudi Arabia wants to increase gas production and boost the share of natural gas in its energy mix to meet growing electricity consumption and to make more crude available for export. The minister said an unspecified number of fields were discovered and he mentioned five by name: Shadoon, in the central region; Shehab and Shurfa, in the Empty Quarter in the southeastern region; Umm Khansar, near the northern border with Iraq; and Samna in the eastern region. Two of the gas fields, Samna and Umm Khansar, were said to be “nonconventional” and possibly shale finds. Lukoil Completes Area 4 Deal in Mexico Russian producer Lukoil has completed a deal to become a lead stakeholder in an Area 4 shallow-water asset adjacent to Tabasco and Campeche in Mexico. Under the deal, Lukoil has acquired a 50% stake in the asset from US independent Fieldwood Energy, which filed for US bankruptcy protection in August 2020, for $685 million. The original deal was priced at $435 million; the additional $250 million is related to expenditures Fieldwood incurred since 1 January 2021. Fieldwood committed to invest $477 million to increase oil production from the Ichalkil and Pokoch fields from the current level of 25,000 B/D to a plateau level of 115,000 B/D. Situated in water depths between 35 and 45 m, the fields’ recoverable hydrocarbon reserves amount to 564 million BOE, more than 80% of which is crude oil. Production started in Q4 2021; current average oil production has exceeded 25,000 B/D. The approved work program includes drilling three development wells (two on Ichalkil and one on Pokoch), upgrading three production platforms, and performing seismic reprocessing and petrophysical studies. The remaining 50% stake in Area 4 is held by operator PetroBal, a subsidiary of Mexico’s GrupoBal. Petrobras Sells Polo Norte Capixaba Field Cluster In line with its strategy to concentrate resources on deepwater and ultradeepwater assets, Brazil’s Petrobras has sold 100% of its interest in Norte Capixaba cluster to Seacrest Exploração e Produção de Petróleo Ltda for $544 million, including a $66-million contingent payment. The cluster comprises four producing fields—Cancã, Fazenda Alegre, Fazenda São Rafael, and Fazenda Santa Luzia—and produced 6,470 BOE/D in 2021. The deal also includes the Norte Capixaba Terminal (TNC) and all production facilities. NewMed Targets Morocco Market Entry Israel-based NewMed Energy, formerly Delek Drilling, has identified Morocco as “a country with enormous geological and commercial potential,” in particular the Moroccan coastal areas in the Mediterranean and North Atlantic. The announcement comes a day after the Moroccan Minister of Industry and Trade, Ryad Mezzour, and his Israeli counterpart, Orna Barbivai, signed an MOU aimed at promoting investments and exchanges between the two countries in the digital design, food, automotive, aviation, textile, water technologies and renewable energies, medical equipment, and the pharmaceutical industries. In September 2021, the Israeli oil and gas exploration company obtained from the Moroccan ministry the exploration and study rights of the Dakhla Atlantic Block, which has an area of about 109000 km2. ExxonMobil Sells Nigerian Assets to Seplat ExxonMobil has agreed to sell its shallow-water assets in Nigeria to Seplat Energy for $1.28 billion plus a contingent consideration of $300 million. Seplat said it is acquiring a 40% operating stake in four oil leases to nearly triple its annual net production to 146,000 BOE/D. The deal also includes the Qua Iboe export terminal and a 51% interest in the Bonny River Terminal and natural gas liquids recovery plants at EAP and Oso. It does not include any of ExxonMobil’s deepwater fields in Nigeria. TotalEnergies Discovers Large Oil Field off Namibia TotalEnergies has made a significant discovery of light oil with associated gas on the Venus prospect, located in block 2913B in the Orange Basin, offshore southern Namibia. The Venus 1-X well encountered approximately 84 m of net oil pay in a good-quality Lower Cretaceous reservoir. The find’s potential reserves are estimated at 2 billion bbl of oil. “This discovery offshore Namibia and the very promising initial results prove the potential of this play in the Orange Basin, on which TotalEnergies owns an important position both in Namibia and South Africa,” said Kevin McLachlan, senior vice president exploration at TotalEnergies. “A comprehensive coring and logging program has been completed. This will enable the preparation of appraisal operations designed to assess the commerciality of this discovery.” Block 2913B covers approximately 8215 km2 in deep offshore Namibia. TotalEnergies is the operator with a 40% working interest, alongside QatarEnergy (30%), Impact Oil and Gas (20%), and NAMCOR (10%). CNPC Scoops Ishpingo Drilling Contract The first drilling contract at the Ishpingo oil field near Ecuador’s Yasuni National Park has been awarded to China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), Energy Minister Juan Carlos Bermeo told Reuters. Following the approval of a new hydrocarbon law and legislation, Ecuador plans to move forward with auctions and competitive processes for securing foreign and domestic capital for oil and gas exploration, production, transportation, and refining projects. The first drilling campaign to start after an environmental license was granted for the sensitive area will involve 40 wells over the next 18 months. It will focus on the field’s allowed zone without touching an area protected by a court ruling that has prevented extending drilling. Ishpingo is the latest part of the ITT-43 oil field in Ecuador’s Amazonia region to start drilling after Tambococha and Tiputini. It is expected to produce heavy oil to be added to the nation’s output of flagship Napo crude, Bermeo said. BP Brings Hershel Expansion Project On Line in US GOM BP has successfully started production from the Herschel Expansion project in the Gulf of Mexico—the first of four major projects scheduled to be delivered globally in 2022. Phase 1 comprises development of a new subsea production system and the first of up to three wells tied to the Na Kika platform in the Mississippi Canyon area. At its peak, this first well is expected to increase platform annual gross production by an estimated 10,600 BOE/D. The BP-operated well was drilled to a depth of approximately 19,000 ft and is located southeast of the Na Kika platform, approximately 140 miles off the coast of New Orleans. The project provides infrastructure for future well tie-in opportunities. BP and Shell each hold a 50% working interest in the development. Petrobras Kicks off Gulf of Mexico Asset Sales Petrobras has begun an asset sale program in the Gulf of Mexico, in line with the company’s strategy of debt reduction and pivot toward Brazilian deepwater production. The package for sale includes the company’s 20% stake in MP Gulf of Mexico (MPGoM) which holds ownership stakes in 15 fields in partnership with Murphy Oil. In addition to partnership-operated fields, MPGoM owns nonoperated interests in Occidental’s Lucius, Kosmos’ Kodiak, Shell’s Habanero, and Chevron’s St. Malo fields. During the first half of 2021, Petrobras’ share of production was 11,300 BOE/D. ExxonMobil Liza Phase 2 Underway off Guyana ExxonMobil started production of Liza Phase 2, Guyana’s second offshore oil development on the Stabroek Block; total production capacity is now more than 340,000 B/D in the 7 years since the country’s first discovery. Production at the Liza Unity FPSO is expected to reach its target of 220,000 bbl of oil later this year. The Stabroek Block’s recoverable resource base is estimated at more than 10 billion BOE. The current resource has the potential to support up to 10 projects. ExxonMobil anticipates that four FPSOs with a capacity of more than 800,000 B/D will be in operation on the block by year-end 2025. Payara, the third project in the block, is expected to produce approximately 220,000 BOPD using the Prosperity FPSO vessel, currently under construction. The field development plan and application for environmental authorization for the Yellowtail project, the fourth project in the block, have been submitted for government and regulatory approvals. The Liza Unity arrived in Guyana in October 2021. It is moored in water depth of about 1650 m and will store around 2 million bbl of crude. ExxonMobil affiliate Esso Exploration and Production Guyana Ltd. is the operator and holds 45% interest. Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd. holds 30% interest and CNOOC Petroleum Guyana Ltd. holds 25%. Dragon Finds Oil in Gulf of Suez UAE’s Dragon Oil has discovered oil in the Gulf of Suez, according to a statement from the Egyptian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources. The field contains potential reserves of around 100 million bbl inside the northeastern region of Ramadan. That estimate makes it one of the largest oil finds in the region over the past 2 decades. Development plans were not reported but reserve numbers could expand, the ministry said. The oil field is the first discovery by Dragon Oil since it acquired 100% of BP’s Gulf of Suez Petroleum assets in 2019. Dragon Oil, wholly owned by Emirates National Oil Co., holds 100% interest in East Zeit Bay off the southern Gulf of Suez region. The 93-km2 block lies in shallow waters of 10 to 40 m.

Machine-made candy was invented by the Germans. But it was Milton S. Hershey, a Pennsylvania candyman with a flair for packaging, who gave the world a craving for what he called simply the Hershey Milk Chocolate Bar. Hershey, who had started in the candy business in 1876 making caramels by hand, purchased his first chocolate-making machine, a German model, in 1893. By the following year, his plant in Lancaster, PA, was turning out America's first mass-produced milk-chocolate bar and its cousin, the Hershey Almond Bar. Weighing 9/16th of an ounce each and divided into small squares easily broken off and eaten, the Hershey milk-chocolate bars were a novelty: Most candy then was sold in large, unwieldy chunks. Within a few years, Hershey introduced another innovation in candy packaging, enclosing each bar at the factory with a wrapper containing the company logo. The whole chocolate business got a big boost when America entered World War I. The Army issued chocolate bars to the troops as quick-energy food, and when the troops came home, they came with a sweet tooth. By 1918 there were 20,000 candy companies in the U.S. Hershey rode the boom and remained a leading U.S. chocolate maker even though the company avoided advertising - Milton Hershey always believed his product would sell itself - until the 1940's.

In the late summer of 2002, the Pennsylvania charitable trust that controls and owns most of the Hershey Foods Corporation put this American corporate icon and one of the world’s leading food and confectionary conglomerates up for sale. The Hershey Trust, whose legal beneficiary is the local Milton Hershey School for poor and underprivileged children, told workers, managers and the press that it sought to diversify its investment portfolio long concentrated in Hershey Foods stock, and “unlock the value” of its controlling shares in Hershey Foods by taking bids for all of its shares in the company.

Abstract We present a multi-wavelength study of the active nucleus and the off-nuclear X-ray sources in the nearby spiral galaxy, NGC 1365 using three simultaneous UV/X-ray observations by AstroSat over a two months period and archival IR observations performed with Spitzer and Herschel. Utilising the data from the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on-board AstroSat, we find spectral variability mainly caused by the variation in the X-ray column density, (NH ∼ 1022–1023 cm−2). With the accurate spatial resolution of the UVIT onboard AstroSat, we separate the intrinsic AGN flux from the host galaxy emission and then correct for the Galactic and the internal reddening. We detect no significant variation in the NUV emission over the observation period. The AGN in FUV band is undetectable due to heavy intrinsic extinction. Further, the multi-wavelength IR/UV/X-ray AGN SED reveals that the AGN is in a low luminosity phase with accretion rate ∼ 0.01 LEdd. The steady UV emission and strong X-ray absorption variability suggest that the obscuring clouds are likely compact and affect the compact X-ray source only and do not possibly cover the extended UV emitting region. In addition, the UVIT is able to resolve two bright spots at a radius of 7″ (∼6.3 Kpc) from the central nucleus in the South-West (SW) direction. In the UVIT image of the entire galaxy, we identify UV counterparts to four Chandra identified bright X-ray sources. One well-known ultra-luminous X-ray source (ULX) NGC 1365 X2 is identified with its UV counterpart at 86″ from the nucleus in the north-east (NE) direction from the active nucleus.

As a result of the improvements made to the camera obscura and the study of light sensitivity of silver salts, photography is a product of the 19th century, and by definition an image produced by the effect of light on a foto-sensitized surface. The genesis of the term is closely related to the discovery of the journal of Antoine Hércules Romuald Florence, a French-brazilian painter and a few years later, to Sir John Herschel who for the first time proposed the term “Photography” for the image obtained in the camera obscura in his private correspondence of 28th February 1839.Around the year 1800, Thomas Wegdwood, son of the renowned manufacturer of potery, Josiah Wegdwood, conducted the first experiments which were completed by obtaining multiple images on paper or textiles, sensitized with silver salts in advance. The process of Wegdwood was revealed in 1802, along with the details necessary to achieve it, by the British chemist Humphry Davy in a paper presented to the Royal Society of Sciences in London.Regardless, a number of other researchers have addressed the issue to enthusiasts in other countries, particularly in France. Joseph Nicéphore Niépce, son of a Royal Adviser, born in Chalon-sur-Saône, with numerous scientific pursuits was fascinated by the experiments with light-sensitive substances. His discovery has become an innovative technique for reproduction and the first photo-mechanical process that revolutionized the graphic arts, being known by the name of “heliography”. In the summer of 1827, Niépce manages to obtain the first image in the camera obscura, on a tin plate by 16,5 × 20,3 cm, with an exposure of over 8 hours which left a pale but identifiable image of the inner court of his estate, “Le Gras”.In September 1827, Niépce meets for the first time with Louis Jacques Mandé Daguerre and two years later as a result of their correspondence, they start an offcial partnership. The document is signed on December 14, 1829, with an extension for a period of two years, and was intended to promote the process of Niépce, initially with the help of improvements made later on by Daguerre. After Niepce’s death in 1833, Daguerre is awarded such merit in the discovery process, to be known in the future as the “Daguerreotype”.Shortly, after the opening of the first daguerrian studios in New York, the example was taken over in major European capitals, including London, Paris and Vienna. In the British Capital, the first studio of its kind was opened by the great industrialist Richard Beard, who managed to obtain the licence of practice from Daguerre. In June of the same year, François Arago presented before the plenary of the Academy of Sciences in Paris, several portraits obtained in only 10 – 12 seconds by the Bisson brothers. Interested at the beginning in Daguerre's method, Hyppolite Bayard, offcial of the Ministry of Finance in Paris, started his own investigations using different substances and mediums.After the daguerreotype, the Tintype, although it was a variant of wet collodion process, it was invented by amateur photographer Adolphe Alexandre Martin and improved at the same time in England, France and America, by several enthusiasts of photography, being used as an alternative to daguerreotype and it was much more accessible financially.Along with the daguerreotype, it was discovered a new way to obtain images, through a method which had origins in the work of Thomas Wegdwood at the turn of the century, subsequently perfected through the experiments of the Englishman William Henry Fox Talbot after 1835. In 1835, with a pinhole camera fitted with a microscopelens, Talbot manages to capture a window of Lacock Abbey’s library to reside on a small paper and with a longtime exposure. His presentation of the new invention was followed by a statement on 31 January at the Royal Society in London entitled: “Some accounts of the Art of Photogenic Drawing”, and later he called the improved process: the “Calotype”.Louis-Désiré Blanquart Evrard experimented with the photographic paper and his work was revealed by acommunication presented at the French Academy on May 27, 1850, in which he proposes two ways of dealing with paper, one with serum and the other with albumin. Another improved process, one embodiment of the calotype became, with the introduction in 1851 of the paper coated with wax by the Gustave Le Gray, who called it: “waxed paper processing method”. In March of 1851, a British sculptor and calotipist, Frederick Scott Archer, described for the first time in the publication “The Chemist”, a new photographic process based on collodion entitled: “On the use of collodion in Photography”.André-Adolphe Eugene Disderi, discovered after moving to Paris in 1853 new ways of experimenting withwet collodion and the waxed paper of Le Gray. The method produced the photographic cartes-de-visite, which represented another application of collodion technique and consisted in making several frames on a single glass plate treated with this emulsion. A total of 4, 6, 8 or even 12 different frames were made using a camera equipped with as many lenses in the front. One of Disderi’s main competitors proved to be Nadar, who in 1853 opened a photographic studio in Paris in partnership with his brother Adrien.After 1860, new trends in the field of fine art photography were emerging and led to some controversy concerning the so-called “pure photography”, which previously sought faithful representation of reality and the new concepts of pictorial photography that was already taking shape through the work of Oscar Gustav Rejlanderand Henry Peach Robinson. Charles Ludwig Dodgson, known by the pseudonym Lewis Carroll, also became famousfor the volume of stories “Alice in Wonderland” and practiced photography as a personal hobby since 1856. Julia Margaret Cameron manipulated the photographic negatives to achieve the desired eects by scratches or by the fingerprints left on the printed images, which was often criticized for this by contemporary photographers.The first satisfactory method using dry collodion was attributed to Dr. Richard Leach Maddox from London, who published on 8 September 1871 a brief overview of the process in the publication "British Journal ofPhotography”. Eadweard Muybridge, a British employee as a topographic photographer in California, began to study the various stages of movement of a galloping horse and continued the experiments in collaboration with Leland Stanford, in order to obtain visual information about both the movement of animals and humans.In London, Leon Warneke perfected a camera in 1875 which used flexible celluloid film, using a costly substance, which was composed of India Rubber and collodion and which was subsequently applied to the surface of paper.In last quarter of the century, George Eastman became interested in photography and followed the initiation courses in this area in a local photographer’s studio. In 1879 he patented the first automatic device producing dry plates and his first commercial success was obtained in 1880 with the American company known for photographic accessories, E. & HT Anthony.His first camera model was launched in 1888 as the “Brownie” and had integrated from the manufacturing stage a roll film holder inside. Roll film became very popular in the coming period, especially among amateur photographers and was known as the “American film”. Commercial slogan used by the Eastman’s company Kodak monopolized the global photographic market to mid-twentieth century with the message content: “You push the button, we do the rest”.

The Walking Dead is an American post-apocalyptic horror drama television series based on the comic book series of the same name. In the opening episode, Sheriff’s Deputy Rick Grimes awakens after months in a coma in an abandoned hospital to find a post-apocalyptic world dominated by flesh eating zombies. The cause of the apocalypse is unknown, and Grimes does not know what has happened to his family. The start of the programme is situated around his quest to find his family, and the encounters he has with the many other survivors along the way. The plot of The Walking Dead centres on the survivors of the apocalypse as they search for safe haven away from the “walkers”, or “biters”; the first series focuses on how they cope with the immediate realities of life in the post-apocalyptic world. From the outset, the programme finds its way through the upheaval and destruction of everyday American life. Decay is persistent and inevitable in the threat of death from the “walkers”; this familiar Gothic trope is ever-present throughout the series.This paper uses a Gothic focus to examine The Walking Dead and considers the disintegration of society and family after the zombie Apocalypse. It focuses primarily on the first series of The Walking Dead, and examines Gothic tropes through a discussion of the decay of the walkers, the decay of the family, and the decay of society.Zombie Gothic It is important to examine the zombie narrative within a Gothic framework. Kyle Bishop argues that “zombies and the narratives that surround them function as part of the larger Gothic literary tradition, even as they change that tradition as well” (31). In contrast to other Gothic traditions that began in literature, the zombie is unique as it began in folklore, cinema and drama. Similarities to other Gothic traditions exist, such as ghosts and vampires, and the zombie narrative serves as a vehicle to examine cultural anxieties and prevailing attitudes. In fact, Bishop suggests that the zombie narrative has now proven itself to be as interesting and complex as more established Gothic traditions (31). Just as earlier Gothic traditions allowed people to explore themselves in the mirror that Frankenstein (1818) or Dracula (1897) provided, the zombie allows for a more modern examination: a world that is increasingly complex with its technological and cybernetic advances yet a world where humanity has still not resolved the great differences that exist. Bishop argues that “during the latter half of the twentieth century, for example, zombie movies repeatedly reacted to social and political unrest, graphically representing the inescapable realities of an untimely death…” (11). The zombie narrative’s ability to adapt to cultural anxieties make it part of the Gothic tradition. Bishop also argues that, in a post–9/11 climate, the zombie film works as an important example of:the contemporary Gothic, readdressing “the central concerns of the classical Gothic,” such as “the dynamics of family, the limits of rationality and passion, the definition of statehood and citizenship, the cultural effects of technology.” In addition to exposing such repressed cultural anxieties, Fred Botting emphasizes how Gothic narratives “retain a double function in simultaneously assuaging and intensifying the anxieties with which they engage.” (26) The Gothic situates itself from the 18th century as writing of excess and this tendency permeates much of the genre’s narratives, characters and settings. The mutability in Gothic texts provides a platform for many social issues and anxieties to be addressed; its ability to shift and adapt in order to reflect contemporaneous social trends is partly what has enabled it to remain popular (Botting Gothic). The zombie forces a confrontation with the fears of life and death, freedom and enslavement, and the destruction of modern society. These include “the exploitation of the masses in capitalist society, the soullessness of modern-day life, our fear of global apocalypse, our revulsion at the reality of war, and the inevitability of death” (Graves 9). The rise of the zombie narrative plays on humanity’s fear for the future: that modern civilisation has many fundamental weaknesses that may ultimately collapse through one form of global disaster or another. The Gothic situates itself from the 18th century as writing of excess and this tendency permeates much of the genre’s narratives, characters and settings. The mutability in Gothic texts provides a platform for many social issues and anxieties to be addressed; its ability to shift and adapt in order to reflect contemporaneous social trends is partly what has enabled it to remain popular (Botting Gothic). The zombie forces a confrontation with the fears of life and death, freedom and enslavement, and the destruction of modern society. These include “the exploitation of the masses in capitalist society, the soullessness of modern-day life, our fear of global apocalypse, our revulsion at the reality of war, and the inevitability of death” (Graves 9). The rise of the zombie narrative plays on humanity’s fear for the future: that modern civilisation has many fundamental weaknesses that may ultimately collapse through one form of global disaster or another. I argue that the zombie is part of a new kind of Gothic with a new monster for a new age. This new monster facilitates the Gothic’s ability to remain relevant in a post-industrial, cyberspace era. Unnatural death is now more horrific, pervasive, and far-reaching than Walpole ever could have imagined when he wrote the now canonical Gothic novel The Castle of Otranto (1764), and the zombie works as a dramatic manifestation of this ever-present anxiety. The Gothic narratives of the zombie now represent a more modern reaction to the threats posed in the 21st-century, post-9/11 world which is potentially more traumatic than the threats posed in earlier Gothic novels of the 19th and 20th century. Global pandemics may manifest as a zombie apocalypse or disease that threaten complete annihilation of civilisation. Teresa Goddu emphasises how “the Gothic is not a trans-historical, static category but a dynamic mode that undergoes historical changes when specific agents adopt and transform its conventions” (32). Zombie narratives have updated Gothic conventions to then reflect modern day anxieties and fears. As Botting argues, “Gothic figures” represent anxieties associated with turning points in cultural historical progress (2002). Zombie narratives, then, serve to allow a confrontation with more modern terrors and threats that exist; the zombie narrative, it can be argued, confronts Gothic tropes and places them in a contemporary context. Cultural anxieties have been nurtured about the rise in terrorist activity around the world, witnessed with the collapse of the World Trade Centre towers, and the threats of pandemics that might eviscerate the human race in the form of SARS. The zombie narrative then represents a logical growth in Gothic monsters that have been used to explore modern day cultural anxieties. Post-Apocalyptic America and Gothic Zombies Apocalypse and zombie narratives represent the worst case scenario for both the people of USA and the world. Zombies, vampires and other apocalyptic monsters are used as faceless creatures to present either an unknown threat or pose them as social critique (Bo). The first signs of the Gothic are present from the start of The Walking Dead, where the familiar American suburban scene has altered into a mutilated disintegrating version of society. In the series, threat comes not just from the “walkers” but also from the fellow survivors who no longer obey the pre-apocalypse laws and way of life. Pre-apocalypse, Rick Grimes was a sheriff, and an upholder of the law. The series starts with Grimes in a police car having lunch with his best friend Shane Walsh while they discuss the differences between men and women. In a police shoot-out, Grimes is shot and awakens to find society as he knew it destroyed. After waking from his coma, he returns to his family home and meets two other survivors, Morgan Jones and his son Duane, who explain the implications of the zombie apocalypse to him. Grimes searches for his family and returns to the police station. He puts on his uniform which appears as a symbol of the normality he thinks he can return to. However, as he goes to get petrol, Grimes looks under a car and sees a young girl’s pink slippers. He calls to her saying “don’t worry little girl”, as the girl drags a pink rabbit. She turns around to face Grimes and runs at him: it is revealed she is a zombie. She is a grotesque parody of a little girl with her distorted and mutilated face; as Grimes draws out his gun and shoots her in the face, she is an uncanny reminder that humanity has permanently altered. The narrative of adults and police officers protecting innocent children is quickly subverted from the start of the series. From this moment, Rick Grimes is permanently fighting his own loss of morality and humanity in a society that has become a distortion of what it once was. The term “liminality” is employed by critics and theorists of the Gothic to refer to spaces or bodies situated:either on or at the recognized borders or boundaries of subjective existence. In eighteenth-century Gothic writing, these thresholds were mainly encountered through liminal spaces. These were often mountain ranges, secret rooms, and hidden passages. From the nineteenth century onward, the human body has increasingly become a liminal site where normative boundaries are challenged; the monster, vampire, and werewolf, are all liminal beings. (Hughes, Punter and Smith)The zombies continues the Gothic tradition of liminality and is perhaps more frightening as they represent the dissolution of death, yet are still in some form “alive”. In The Walking Dead, the survivors are also neither completely alive nor dead, as they are on the edge of losing life as they know it and becoming consumed by the undead. The “walkers” operate as terrifying prompts that what was once considered an incontrovertible fact—the difference between life and death—is not as final in the post-apocalyptic world of the series. The “walkers”, therefore, are walking manifestations of decay and liminality, a reminder that the fear of death has been transmuted into the fear if an even more dangerous entity, neither living nor dead. Gothic, Misha Kavka argues, is often about fear, localised in the shape of something monstrous that electrifies the collective mind (Kavka). In this case, the zombies are tangible displays of how a pandemic or global outbreak could alter humanity forever. Gothic is also about the paranoia around body manipulation, defined as a projection of the self on to the outside world where the boundaries blur between self and other (Kavka). In the zombie narrative of The Walking Dead, the boundaries between the living and dead collapse when decay reanimates into the liminal form of the “walkers”. Decay of the Family The death of the family unit as a recurring trope is raised early on in the series, and the initial problem for Rick Grimes is locating his missing family. Grimes teams up with Morgan Jones and his son Duane. Morgan has his own dilemma when faced with the thought of killing his wife who has turned into a “walker”. She returns to their family house, and seems caught between life and death as if she has some memory of the life she had before. Rick Grimes’s family dilemma is further exacerbated when he finds his wife and son with other survivors who have formed a group. Thinking that her husband Rick was dead, Lori Grimes has started a relationship with Grimes’ best friend, fellow police officer Shane Walsh; a growing tension grows between the two men as the series continues. Ultimately this leads to a fight between the two men as the jealousy grows and each have different ideas on how to best keep the survivors safe. Where the men were once allies and friends, the apocalypse has turned them into enemies. Though the zombies are the most manifest threat to the survivors, there are other threats that come to the fore in The Walking Dead. These threats are in the form of the changes that occur between the characters (Bo). What were once everyday events turns into dangerous events: getting water, petrol and food, for example, become life-threatening activities, and the survivors must trust people who they meet up with on their travels. Rick Grimes’ pre-apocalypse ethics and humanity are tested by the new society. For example, he allows his son Carl Grimes to carry a handgun which Carl later uses to save Rick’s life. In contrast to the Grimes family that is at the centre of the narrative, another group of survivors live at a farm and are led by Hershel Greene, a farmer and religious leader. Their treatment of the “walkers” represents a different approach to the zombie apocalypse. Hershel keeps zombies in a barn and sees them as sick people, while Rick sees them as monsters. Many in the barn are Hershel’s family members; it is only later in the series that Hershel comes to see the zombie family as monsters intent on killing all human survivors. With the connections to family and love, the zombies act as a mirror to the human survivors of what they may potentially become. Societal Decay From the start The Walking Dead Rick Grimes needs to grapple with a world profoundly altered by the zombie apocalypse. The hospital is abandoned except for stray zombie corpses, and it is clear that the once secure place of the hospital is no longer a haven for the sick. One of the most obvious signs of decay is the streets littered with abandoned vehicles, and there are outward markers of chaos and apocalypse. There is much that is Gothic and uncanny in The Walking Dead, where cognitive dissonance is opened up when the familiar becomes strange. The world ostensibly looks the same but will never be normal again for Rick Grimes and the survivors. Here the “true horror lies in that which is most immediately at hand that the most proximal bears the capacity to contain the utterly unfamiliar” (Chopra). The decay of society is made both manifest and melancholic as it evokes the anxiety of being simultaneously normal and abnormal. The once known, or normal, world has become strange and unfamiliar. For example, in the first series of The Walking Dead there is a reference to the classic zombie horror film Dawn of the Dead (1978), where the survivors find themselves trapped in a department store, a famous scene commented upon by Bishop:This instinctual “drive to shop,” as it were, is repeatedly emphasized by Romero, who shows the mindless creatures pressed up against glass doors and windows, clamouring to get inside the shops, in a gross parody of early-morning-sale shoppers, to resume their earthly activities of gluttonous consumption—indeed, as Kim Paffenroth points out, their addiction for the place exists beyond death. (Bishop 41) As the maniacal governor in The Walking Dead later observes about the zombies: “The thing you have to realize is that they’re just us—they’re no different. They want what they want, they take what they want and after they get what they want—they’re only content for the briefest span of time. Then they want more” (Bishop 140). The zombies then serve as a mirror for the worst of humanity. Zombies further mirror other aspects of humanity that are hidden and ignored. Barbara Creed suggests that the popular horror film brings about a confrontation with the abject (the corpse, bodily wastes, and the monstrous-feminine), and by doing so re-draws the boundaries between the human and non-human (Creed). She argues:Firstly, the horror film abounds in images of abjection, foremost of which is the corpse, whole and mutilated, followed by an array of bodily wastes such as blood, vomit, saliva, tears and putrefying flesh. (Creed 253)The zombies/”walkers” in The Walking Dead are abject, mutilated walking corpses. Creed argues that the blurred boundaries between life and death, and the antinomies that humans like to ignore or pretend do not exist, are seen in creatures like zombies. Abjection is usually represented by bodily fluids such as pus or blood or a kind of in-betweenness, such as the zombies’ state between life and death. Mark Bould and Sherryl Vint argue that apocalyptic fiction uses the scenario of the end of the world as a way to rebuild and reorganise society (23). The very question of possible futures and society in a post-apocalyptic world is raised and questioned in The Walking Dead when everyday survival is at stake. This alters, however, when Rick Grimes has to focus on the long-term survival of the group and his family when his wife becomes pregnant. Lori Grimes argues that the world they find themselves in is no place to raise a child and to establish new lives. Rick does not agree with Lori and her pessimistic view of society as it stands. In an uncanny twist, the survivors do not know what has caused the apocalypse, but they later learn that everyone is infected and will re-animate when dead: they are the “walking dead”.Conclusion The Walking Dead is a modern Gothic text that uses many of the tropes of the Gothic to explore cultural anxieties present today. One such area is that of decay, chaos and lawlessness in the post-apocalyptic world of the zombie. This is a key area of the Gothic tradition played out in the modern afflicted world. At the start of The Walking Dead, society is seen as “normal”, two police officers are eating lunch in their vehicle and talking about life. After Rick Grimes awakens after his coma what was once “normal” has transformed into a site of uncanny horror, suspense and terror. Much of the first series is spent with Grimes and his survivors trying to contain and combat the zombie threat. Botting argues that early Gothic fiction articulated a shift from a feudal economy to a capitalistic one (2008). In similar vein, in The Walking Dead the future is one where capitalist society has totally collapsed. This could be a critique of the 2008 financial crash, or a fear of what could happen if a pandemic were to occur that ended consumer life and society as it is known (Bishop 41). It also demonstrates that what is seen as established norms quickly disintegrate in the new post-apocalyptic society. Social structures in the post-apocalyptic world no longer function as they once did. The normality of a pregnancy which should, under “normal” circumstances, herald hope for the future, sets off ambivalence in the Grimes family about the life circumstances the survivors find themselves in, and the future that is available to them or their offspring. Core institutions and structures have fallen; the hospital at the start of the series no longer functions and the police are no longer upholders of the law. Chaos and anarchy are now the everyday life that confronts the survivors. The survivors are frequently left with questions about what is the point is of their lives. At the centre of the chaos is the change in family and society. The structures of modern society are seen as flimsy and easily disturbed in the post-apocalyptic zombie future. As Botting says, “uncertainties about the nature of power, law, society, family and sexuality dominate Gothic fiction” (Gothic 3). The modern day Gothic then questions these key areas of society. The death in the Gothic post-apocalyptic zombie future is that of society as well as individuals. References Bishop, Kyle William. American Zombie Gothic: The Rise and Fall (and Rise) of the Walking Dead in Popular Culture. Jefferson: McFarland Company, 2010. Bo, Kristian. Surviving the End. Thesis. University of Tromso, 2013. Botting, Fred. “Aftergothic: Consumption,Machines, and Black Holes.” In Hogle, The Cambridge Companion to Gothic Fiction. ———. The Gothic. London: Routledge. 1995. ———. Limits of Horror: Technology, Bodies, Gothic. New York: Manchester University Press, 2008. ———. “Science Fiction and Film in Gothic.” London: Routledge. 2005. Bould, Mark, and Sherryl Vint. The Routledge Concise History of Science Fiction. New York: Routledge, 2011. Creed, Barbara. “Horror and the Monstrous-Feminine: An Imaginary Abjection.” Feminist Film Theory: A Reader. Ed. Sue Thornham. New York: New York University Press, 1999. Chopra, Samir. “American Horror Story, The Walking Dead, and the American Gothic”. samirchopra.com, 2014. Goddu, Teresa A. Gothic America: Narrative, History, and Nation. New York: Columbia University Press, 1997. Hughes, William, David Punter and Andrew Smith. The Encyclopaedia of the Gothic. London: Wiley, 2014. Kavka, M. “The Gothic on Screen.” The Cambridge Companion to Gothic Fiction, ed. C. Jerold Hogle. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002. Overbey, Erin. “The Walking Dead Returns”. The New Yorker, 2012. The Walking Dead, Frank Darabont. AMC, 2010. DVD.

Photograph by Gonzalo Echeverria (2010)Declaring War Soon after Al Qaeda’s terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001, the Bush Administration described its new grand strategy: the “Global War on Terror”. This underpinned the subsequent counter-insurgency in Afghanistan and the United States invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Media pundits quickly applied the Global War on Terror label to the Madrid, Bali and London bombings, to convey how Al Qaeda’s terrorism had gone transnational. Meanwhile, international relations scholars debated the extent to which September 11 had changed the international system (Brenner; Mann 303). American intellectuals adopted several variations of the Global War on Terror in what initially felt like a transitional period of US foreign policy (Burns). Walter Laqueur suggested Al Qaeda was engaged in a “cosmological” and perpetual war. Paul Berman likened Al Qaeda and militant Islam to the past ideological battles against communism and fascism (Heilbrunn 248). In a widely cited article, neoconservative thinker Norman Podhoretz suggested the United States faced “World War IV”, which had three interlocking drivers: Al Qaeda and trans-national terrorism; political Islam as the West’s existential enemy; and nuclear proliferation to ‘rogue’ countries and non-state actors (Friedman 3). Podhoretz’s tone reflected a revival of his earlier Cold War politics and critique of the New Left (Friedman 148-149; Halper and Clarke 56; Heilbrunn 210). These stances attracted widespread support. For instance, the United States Marine Corp recalibrated its mission to fight a long war against “World War IV-like” enemies. Yet these stances left the United States unprepared as the combat situations in Afghanistan and Iraq worsened (Ricks; Ferguson; Filkins). Neoconservative ideals for Iraq “regime change” to transform the Middle East failed to deal with other security problems such as Pakistan’s Musharraf regime (Dorrien 110; Halper and Clarke 210-211; Friedman 121, 223; Heilbrunn 252). The Manichean and open-ended framing became a self-fulfilling prophecy for insurgents, jihadists, and militias. The Bush Administration quietly abandoned the Global War on Terror in July 2005. Widespread support had given way to policymaker doubt. Why did so many intellectuals and strategists embrace the Global War on Terror as the best possible “grand strategy” perspective of a post-September 11 world? Why was there so little doubt of this worldview? This is a debate with roots as old as the Sceptics versus the Sophists. Explanations usually focus on the Bush Administration’s “Vulcans” war cabinet: Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfield, and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, who later became Secretary of State (Mann xv-xvi). The “Vulcans” were named after the Roman god Vulcan because Rice’s hometown Birmingham, Alabama, had “a mammoth fifty-six foot statue . . . [in] homage to the city’s steel industry” (Mann x) and the name stuck. Alternatively, explanations focus on how neoconservative thinkers shaped the intellectual climate after September 11, in a receptive media climate. Biographers suggest that “neoconservatism had become an echo chamber” (Heilbrunn 242) with its own media outlets, pundits, and think-tanks such as the American Enterprise Institute and Project for a New America. Neoconservatism briefly flourished in Washington DC until Iraq’s sectarian violence discredited the “Vulcans” and neoconservative strategists like Paul Wolfowitz (Friedman; Ferguson). The neoconservatives' combination of September 11’s aftermath with strongly argued historical analogies was initially convincing. They conferred with scholars such as Bernard Lewis, Samuel P. Huntington and Victor Davis Hanson to construct classicist historical narratives and to explain cultural differences. However, the history of the decade after September 11 also contains mis-steps and mistakes which make it a series of contingent decisions (Ferguson; Bergen). One way to analyse these contingent decisions is to pose “what if?” counterfactuals, or feasible alternatives to historical events (Lebow). For instance, what if September 11 had been a chemical and biological weapons attack? (Mann 317). Appendix 1 includes a range of alternative possibilities and “minimal rewrites” or slight variations on the historical events which occurred. Collectively, these counterfactuals suggest the role of agency, chance, luck, and the juxtaposition of better and worse outcomes. They pose challenges to the classicist interpretation adopted soon after September 11 to justify “World War IV” (Podhoretz). A ‘Two-Track’ Process for ‘World War IV’ After the September 11 attacks, I think an overlapping two-track process occurred with the “Vulcans” cabinet, neoconservative advisers, and two “echo chambers”: neoconservative think-tanks and the post-September 11 media. Crucially, Bush’s “Vulcans” war cabinet succeeded in gaining civilian control of the United States war decision process. Although successful in initiating the 2003 Iraq War this civilian control created a deeper crisis in US civil-military relations (Stevenson; Morgan). The “Vulcans” relied on “politicised” intelligence such as a United Kingdom intelligence report on Iraq’s weapons development program. The report enabled “a climate of undifferentiated fear to arise” because its public version did not distinguish between chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons (Halper and Clarke, 210). The cautious 2003 National Intelligence Estimates (NIE) report on Iraq was only released in a strongly edited form. For instance, the US Department of Energy had expressed doubts about claims that Iraq had approached Niger for uranium, and was using aluminium tubes for biological and chemical weapons development. Meanwhile, the post-September 11 media had become a second “echo chamber” (Halper and Clarke 194-196) which amplified neoconservative arguments. Berman, Laqueur, Podhoretz and others who framed the intellectual climate were “risk entrepreneurs” (Mueller 41-43) that supported the “World War IV” vision. The media also engaged in aggressive “flak” campaigns (Herman and Chomsky 26-28; Mueller 39-42) designed to limit debate and to stress foreign policy stances and themes which supported the Bush Administration. When former Central Intelligence Agency director James Woolsey’s claimed that Al Qaeda had close connections to Iraqi intelligence, this was promoted in several books, including Michael Ledeen’s War Against The Terror Masters, Stephen Hayes’ The Connection, and Laurie Mylroie’s Bush v. The Beltway; and in partisan media such as Fox News, NewsMax, and The Weekly Standard who each attacked the US State Department and the CIA (Dorrien 183; Hayes; Ledeen; Mylroie; Heilbrunn 237, 243-244; Mann 310). This was the media “echo chamber” at work. The group Accuracy in Media also campaigned successfully to ensure that US cable providers did not give Al Jazeera English access to US audiences (Barker). Cosmopolitan ideals seemed incompatible with what the “flak” groups desired. The two-track process converged on two now infamous speeches. US President Bush’s State of the Union Address on 29 January 2002, and US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s presentation to the United Nations on 5 February 2003. Bush’s speech included a line from neoconservative David Frumm about North Korea, Iraq and Iran as an “Axis of Evil” (Dorrien 158; Halper and Clarke 139-140; Mann 242, 317-321). Powell’s presentation to the United Nations included now-debunked threat assessments. In fact, Powell had altered the speech’s original draft by I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, who was Cheney’s chief of staff (Dorrien 183-184). Powell claimed that Iraq had mobile biological weapons facilities, linked to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Mohamed El-Baradei, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the State Department, and the Institute for Science and International Security all strongly doubted this claim, as did international observers (Dorrien 184; Halper and Clarke 212-213; Mann 353-354). Yet this information was suppressed: attacked by “flak” or given little visible media coverage. Powell’s agenda included trying to rebuild an international coalition and to head off weather changes that would affect military operations in the Middle East (Mann 351). Both speeches used politicised variants of “weapons of mass destruction”, taken from the counterterrorism literature (Stern; Laqueur). Bush’s speech created an inflated geopolitical threat whilst Powell relied on flawed intelligence and scientific visuals to communicate a non-existent threat (Vogel). However, they had the intended effect on decision makers. US Under-Secretary of Defense, the neoconservative Paul Wolfowitz, later revealed to Vanity Fair that “weapons of mass destruction” was selected as an issue that all potential stakeholders could agree on (Wilkie 69). Perhaps the only remaining outlet was satire: Armando Iannucci’s 2009 film In The Loop parodied the diplomatic politics surrounding Powell’s speech and the civil-military tensions on the Iraq War’s eve. In the short term the two track process worked in heading off doubt. The “Vulcans” blocked important information on pre-war Iraq intelligence from reaching the media and the general public (Prados). Alternatively, they ignored area specialists and other experts, such as when Coalition Provisional Authority’s L. Paul Bremer ignored the US State Department’s fifteen volume ‘Future of Iraq’ project (Ferguson). Public “flak” and “risk entrepreneurs” mobilised a range of motivations from grief and revenge to historical memory and identity politics. This combination of private and public processes meant that although doubts were expressed, they could be contained through the dual echo chambers of neoconservative policymaking and the post-September 11 media. These factors enabled the “Vulcans” to proceed with their “regime change” plans despite strong public opposition from anti-war protestors. Expressing DoubtsMany experts and institutions expressed doubt about specific claims the Bush Administration made to support the 2003 Iraq War. This doubt came from three different and sometimes overlapping groups. Subject matter experts such as the IAEA’s Mohamed El-Baradei and weapons development scientists countered the UK intelligence report and Powell’s UN speech. However, they did not get the media coverage warranted due to “flak” and “echo chamber” dynamics. Others could challenge misleading historical analogies between insurgent Iraq and Nazi Germany, and yet not change the broader outcomes (Benjamin). Independent journalists one group who gained new information during the 1990-91 Gulf War: some entered Iraq from Kuwait and documented a more humanitarian side of the war to journalists embedded with US military units (Uyarra). Finally, there were dissenters from bureaucratic and institutional processes. In some cases, all three overlapped. In their separate analyses of the post-September 11 debate on intelligence “failure”, Zegart and Jervis point to a range of analytic misperceptions and institutional problems. However, the intelligence community is separated from policymakers such as the “Vulcans”. Compartmentalisation due to the “need to know” principle also means that doubting analysts can be blocked from releasing information. Andrew Wilkie discovered this when he resigned from Australia’s Office for National Assessments (ONA) as a transnational issues analyst. Wilkie questioned the pre-war assessments in Powell’s United Nations speech that were used to justify the 2003 Iraq War. Wilkie was then attacked publicly by Australian Prime Minister John Howard. This overshadowed a more important fact: both Howard and Wilkie knew that due to Australian legislation, Wilkie could not publicly comment on ONA intelligence, despite the invitation to do so. This barrier also prevented other intelligence analysts from responding to the “Vulcans”, and to “flak” and “echo chamber” dynamics in the media and neoconservative think-tanks. Many analysts knew that the excerpts released from the 2003 NIE on Iraq was highly edited (Prados). For example, Australian agencies such as the ONA, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and the Department of Defence knew this (Wilkie 98). However, analysts are trained not to interfere with policymakers, even when there are significant civil-military irregularities. Military officials who spoke out about pre-war planning against the “Vulcans” and their neoconservative supporters were silenced (Ricks; Ferguson). Greenlight Capital’s hedge fund manager David Einhorn illustrates in a different context what might happen if analysts did comment. Einhorn gave a speech to the Ira Sohn Conference on 15 May 2002 debunking the management of Allied Capital. Einhorn’s “short-selling” led to retaliation from Allied Capital, a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation, and growing evidence of potential fraud. If analysts adopted Einhorn’s tactics—combining rigorous analysis with targeted, public denunciation that is widely reported—then this may have short-circuited the “flak” and “echo chamber” effects prior to the 2003 Iraq War. The intelligence community usually tries to pre-empt such outcomes via contestation exercises and similar processes. This was the goal of the 2003 NIE on Iraq, despite the fact that the US Department of Energy which had the expertise was overruled by other agencies who expressed opinions not necessarily based on rigorous scientific and technical analysis (Prados; Vogel). In counterterrorism circles, similar disinformation arose about Aum Shinrikyo’s biological weapons research after its sarin gas attack on Tokyo’s subway system on 20 March 1995 (Leitenberg). Disinformation also arose regarding nuclear weapons proliferation to non-state actors in the 1990s (Stern). Interestingly, several of the “Vulcans” and neoconservatives had been involved in an earlier controversial contestation exercise: Team B in 1976. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assembled three Team B groups in order to evaluate and forecast Soviet military capabilities. One group headed by historian Richard Pipes gave highly “alarmist” forecasts and then attacked a CIA NIE about the Soviets (Dorrien 50-56; Mueller 81). The neoconservatives adopted these same tactics to reframe the 2003 NIE from its position of caution, expressed by several intelligence agencies and experts, to belief that Iraq possessed a current, covert program to develop weapons of mass destruction (Prados). Alternatively, information may be leaked to the media to express doubt. “Non-attributable” background interviews to establishment journalists like Seymour Hersh and Bob Woodward achieved this. Wikileaks publisher Julian Assange has recently achieved notoriety due to US diplomatic cables from the SIPRNet network released from 28 November 2010 onwards. Supporters have favourably compared Assange to Daniel Ellsberg, the RAND researcher who leaked the Pentagon Papers (Ellsberg; Ehrlich and Goldsmith). Whilst Elsberg succeeded because a network of US national papers continued to print excerpts from the Pentagon Papers despite lawsuit threats, Assange relied in part on favourable coverage from the UK’s Guardian newspaper. However, suspected sources such as US Army soldier Bradley Manning are not protected whilst media outlets are relatively free to publish their scoops (Walt, ‘Woodward’). Assange’s publication of SIPRNet’s diplomatic cables will also likely mean greater restrictions on diplomatic and military intelligence (Walt, ‘Don’t Write’). Beyond ‘Doubt’ Iraq’s worsening security discredited many of the factors that had given the neoconservatives credibility. The post-September 11 media became increasingly more critical of the US military in Iraq (Ferguson) and cautious about the “echo chamber” of think-tanks and media outlets. Internet sites for Al Jazeera English, Al-Arabiya and other networks have enabled people to bypass “flak” and directly access these different viewpoints. Most damagingly, the non-discovery of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction discredited both the 2003 NIE on Iraq and Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation (Wilkie 104). Likewise, “risk entrepreneurs” who foresaw “World War IV” in 2002 and 2003 have now distanced themselves from these apocalyptic forecasts due to a series of mis-steps and mistakes by the Bush Administration and Al Qaeda’s over-calculation (Bergen). The emergence of sites such as Wikileaks, and networks like Al Jazeera English and Al-Arabiya, are a response to the politics of the past decade. They attempt to short-circuit past “echo chambers” through providing access to different sources and leaked data. The Global War on Terror framed the Bush Administration’s response to September 11 as a war (Kirk; Mueller 59). Whilst this prematurely closed off other possibilities, it has also unleashed a series of dynamics which have undermined the neoconservative agenda. The “classicist” history and historical analogies constructed to justify the “World War IV” scenario are just one of several potential frameworks. “Flak” organisations and media “echo chambers” are now challenged by well-financed and strategic alternatives such as Al Jazeera English and Al-Arabiya. Doubt is one defence against “risk entrepreneurs” who seek to promote a particular idea: doubt guards against uncritical adoption. Perhaps the enduring lesson of the post-September 11 debates, though, is that doubt alone is not enough. What is needed are individuals and institutions that understand the strategies which the neoconservatives and others have used, and who also have the soft power skills during crises to influence critical decision-makers to choose alternatives. Appendix 1: Counterfactuals Richard Ned Lebow uses “what if?” counterfactuals to examine alternative possibilities and “minimal rewrites” or slight variations on the historical events that occurred. The following counterfactuals suggest that the Bush Administration’s Global War on Terror could have evolved very differently . . . or not occurred at all. Fact: The 2003 Iraq War and 2001 Afghanistan counterinsurgency shaped the Bush Administration’s post-September 11 grand strategy. Counterfactual #1: Al Gore decisively wins the 2000 U.S. election. Bush v. Gore never occurs. After the September 11 attacks, Gore focuses on international alliance-building and gains widespread diplomatic support rather than a neoconservative agenda. He authorises Special Operations Forces in Afghanistan and works closely with the Musharraf regime in Pakistan to target Al Qaeda’s muhajideen. He ‘contains’ Saddam Hussein’s Iraq through measurement and signature, technical intelligence, and more stringent monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Minimal Rewrite: United 93 crashes in Washington DC, killing senior members of the Gore Administration. Fact: U.S. Special Operations Forces failed to kill Osama bin Laden in late November and early December 2001 at Tora Bora. Counterfactual #2: U.S. Special Operations Forces kill Osama bin Laden in early December 2001 during skirmishes at Tora Bora. Ayman al-Zawahiri is critically wounded, captured, and imprisoned. The rest of Al Qaeda is scattered. Minimal Rewrite: Osama bin Laden’s death turns him into a self-mythologised hero for decades. Fact: The UK Blair Government supplied a 50-page intelligence dossier on Iraq’s weapons development program which the Bush Administration used to support its pre-war planning. Counterfactual #3: Rogue intelligence analysts debunk the UK Blair Government’s claims through a series of ‘targeted’ leaks to establishment news sources. Minimal Rewrite: The 50-page intelligence dossier is later discovered to be correct about Iraq’s weapons development program. Fact: The Bush Administration used the 2003 National Intelligence Estimate to “build its case” for “regime change” in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Counterfactual #4: A joint investigation by The New York Times and The Washington Post rebuts U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s speech to the United National Security Council, delivered on 5 February 2003. Minimal Rewrite: The Central Intelligence Agency’s whitepaper “Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs” (October 2002) more accurately reflects the 2003 NIE’s cautious assessments. Fact: The Bush Administration relied on Ahmed Chalabi for its postwar estimates about Iraq’s reconstruction. Counterfactual #5: The Bush Administration ignores Chalabi’s advice and relies instead on the U.S. State Department’s 15 volume report “The Future of Iraq”. Minimal Rewrite: The Coalition Provisional Authority appoints Ahmed Chalabi to head an interim Iraqi government. Fact: L. Paul Bremer signed orders to disband Iraq’s Army and to De-Ba’athify Iraq’s new government. Counterfactual #6: Bremer keeps Iraq’s Army intact and uses it to impose security in Baghdad to prevent looting and to thwart insurgents. Rather than a De-Ba’athification policy, Bremer uses former Baath Party members to gather situational intelligence. Minimal Rewrite: Iraq’s Army refuses to disband and the De-Ba’athification policy uncovers several conspiracies to undermine the Coalition Provisional Authority. AcknowledgmentsThanks to Stephen McGrail for advice on science and technology analysis.References Barker, Greg. “War of Ideas”. PBS Frontline. Boston, MA: 2007. ‹http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/newswar/video1.html› Benjamin, Daniel. “Condi’s Phony History.” Slate 29 Aug. 2003. ‹http://www.slate.com/id/2087768/pagenum/all/›. Bergen, Peter L. The Longest War: The Enduring Conflict between America and Al Qaeda. New York: The Free Press, 2011. Berman, Paul. Terror and Liberalism. 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