Статті в журналах з теми "Hasdism"

Tulisan ini menampik klaim kajian perilaku memilih masyarakat yang telah menuju pola rasional, baik di level nasional maupun lokal. Tulisan ini mengajukan tesis bahwa runtuhnya dinasti kekuasaan menyebabkan perilaku memilih masyarakat kembali ke pola primordial yang awalnya menunjukkan pola rasional. Dinasti kekuasaan ini berada di tingkat lokal, tepatnya dinasti Syaukani-Rita di Kutai Kartanegara. Fokus penelitian ini melihat pada dominasi Rita Widyasari yang unggul di beberapa survei dalam bursa calon gubernur provinsi Kalimantan Timur namun gagal ikut di kontestasi tersebut karena tersandung masalah hukum. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dan teknik pengumpulan data melalui wawancara. Temuan dalam penelitian ini adalah perilaku memilih masyarakat menunjukkan pola primordial. Pola primordial masyarakat tersebut berdasarkan pada basis identitas suku dan agama yang terbagi ke dalam tiga wilayah (hulu, hilir/tengah, dan pesisir). Daerah hulu yang mayoritas suku Dayak cenderung memilih Syaharie Jaang, daerah hilir didominasi suku Kutai memilih Isran Noor, dan di wilayah pesisir yang didominasi suku Bugis lebih memilih Andi Sofyan Hasdam. Sedangkan berdasarkan agama, masyarakat memilih karena figur Hadi Mulyadi yang merupakan pasangan Isran Noor karena kelihatan lebih agamais.

Tulisan ini menampik klaim kajian perilaku memilih masyarakat yang telah menuju pola rasional, baik di level nasional maupun lokal. Tulisan ini mengajukan tesis bahwa runtuhnya dinasti kekuasaan menyebabkan perilaku memilih masyarakat kembali ke pola primordial yang awalnya menunjukkan pola rasional. Dinasti kekuasaan ini berada di tingkat lokal, tepatnya dinasti Syaukani-Rita di Kutai Kartanegara. Fokus penelitian ini melihat pada dominasi Rita Widyasari yang unggul di beberapa survei dalam bursa calon gubernur provinsi Kalimantan Timur namun gagal ikut di kontestasi tersebut karena tersandung masalah hukum. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dan teknik pengumpulan data melalui wawancara. Temuan dalam penelitian ini adalah perilaku memilih masyarakat menunjukkan pola primordial. Pola primordial masyarakat tersebut berdasarkan pada basis identitas suku dan agama yang terbagi ke dalam tiga wilayah (hulu, hilir/tengah, dan pesisir). Daerah hulu yang mayoritas suku Dayak cenderung memilih Syaharie Jaang, daerah hilir didominasi suku Kutai memilih Isran Noor, dan di wilayah pesisir yang didominasi suku Bugis lebih memilih Andi Sofyan Hasdam. Sedangkan berdasarkan agama, masyarakat memilih karena figur Hadi Mulyadi yang merupakan pasangan Isran Noor karena kelihatan lebih agamais.

Accurately modeling the density of atmospheric mass is critical for orbit determination and prediction of space objects. Existing atmospheric mass density models (ADMs) have an accuracy of about 15%. Developing high-precision ADMs is a long-term goal that requires a better understanding of atmospheric density characteristics, more accurate modeling methods, and improved spatiotemporal data. This study proposes a method for calibrating ADMs using sparse angular data of space objects in low-Earth orbit over a certain period of time. Applying the corrected ADM not only improves the accuracy of orbit determination, but also enhances the accuracy of orbit prediction beyond the correction period. The study compares the impact of two calibration methods: atmospheric mass density model coefficient (ADMC) calibration and high precision satellite drag model (HASDM) calibration on the accuracy of orbit prediction of space objects. One month of ground-based telescope array angular data is used to validate the results. Space objects are classified as calibration objects, participating in ADM calibration, and verification objects, inside and outside the calibration orbit region, respectively. The results show that applying the calibrated ADM can significantly increase the accuracy of orbit prediction. For objects within the calibration orbit region, the calibration object’s orbit prediction error was reduced by about 55%, while that of verification objects was reduced by about 45%. The reduction in orbit prediction error outside this region was about 30%. This proposed method contributes significantly to the development of more reliable ADMs for orbit prediction of space objects with sparse angular data and can provide significant academic value in the field of space situational awareness.

Aims: The semi-empirical Drag Temperature Models (DTM) predict the Earth’s thermosphere’s temperature, density, and composition, especially for orbit computation purposes. Two new models were developed in the framework of the H2020 Space Weather Atmosphere Models and Indices (SWAMI) project. The operational model is driven by the trusted and established F10.7 and Kp indices for solar and geomagnetic activity. The so-called research model is more accurate, but it uses the indices F30 and the hourly Hpo, which are not yet accredited operationally. Methods: The DTM2020 models’ backbone comprises GOCE, CHAMP, and Swarm A densities, processed by TU Delft, and Stella processed in-house. They constitute the standards for absolute densities, and they are 20–30% smaller than the datasets used in the fit of DTM2013. Also, the global daily mean TLE densities at 250 km, spanning four solar cycles, were now used to improve solar cycle variations. The operational model employs the same algorithm as DTM2013, which was obtained through fitting all data in our database from 1967 to 2019. Because of the Hpo index, which is not available before 1995, the coefficients linked to the geomagnetic activity of the research model are fitted to data from 2000 to 2019. The algorithm was updated to take advantage of the higher cadence of Hpo. Both models are assessed with independent data and compared with the COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere models NRLMSISE-00, JB2008, and DTM2013. The bias and precision of the models are assessed through comparison with observations according to published metrics on several time scales. Secondly, binning of the density ratios are used to detect specific model errors. Results: The DTM2020 densities are on average 20–30% smaller than those of DTM2013, NRLMSISE-00, and JB2008. The assessment shows that the research DTM2020 is the least biased and most precise model compared to assimilated data. It is a significant improvement over DTM2013 under all conditions and at all altitudes. This is confirmed by the comparison with independent SET HASDM density data. The operational DTM2020 is always less accurate than the research model except at 800 km altitude. It has comparable or slightly higher precision than DTM2013, despite using F10.7 instead of F30 as solar activity driver. DTM, and semi-empirical models in general, can still be significantly improved on the condition of setting up a more complete and consistent total density, composition, and temperature database than available at this time by means of a well-conceived observing system.

PT Sayap Mas Utama is a company engaged in the toiletry industry. The products produced include DAIA detergent, So Klin detergent, Economy cream soap, Blue Wings cream soap and Dang Dut cream soap. The packaging used to pack these products is plastic / cellophane roll. In its production, PT Sayap Mas Utama cooperates with several cellophane suppliers, namely Unipack, Bonavista, Toppan, and Iluva. It is required because if only work with one supplier, the production needs for packaging cannot be fulfilled. This is happened due to the productivity level of PT Sayap Mas Utama is indeed quite high. There are some suppliers has differences in the delivery of goods so that this influence to the productivity of the company. By this research, it is expected that the company can find the best supplier by considering several criteria, namely price, quality, service, delivery accuracy, and quantity suitability. After conducting research using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method with the help of the Expert choice application, it was found that Unipack is the best supplier with a weight value of 0.311. Next is Toppan with a weight value of 0.276, Bonavista with a weight value of 0.241 and Iluva with a weight value of 0.158. Reference: Bourgeois, R. (2005). Analytical Hierarchy Process. Bogor: UNCAPSA-UNESCAP. Hanugrani, N., Setyanto, N. W., & Efanto, R. Y. (2014). Pengukuran Performansi Supply Chain dengan Menggunakan Supply Chain Operation Reference (SCOR) berbasis Analitycal Hierarchy Process (AHP) dan Objective Matrix (OMAX). Hasdi, R. F., Sudarmaningtyas, P., & Supriyanto, A. (2014). Rancang Bangun Sistem Pendukung Keputusan Pemilihan Supplier dengan Metode AHP. Laksmi, Fuad, & Budiantoro. (2008). Manajemen Perkantoran Modern. Jakarta: Pernaka. Putri, C. F. (2012). Pemilihan Supplier Bahan Baku Pengemas Dengan Metode AHP (Analitycal Hierarchy Process). Sari, D. P., & Kusumo, S. A. (2011). Evaluasi Pemilihan Supplier Terbaik Menggunakan Metode Taguchi Loss Functions dan Analytical Hierarchy Process di PT Indomaju Textindo Kudus. Sudri, N. M., Nendisa, B. C., & Wibisono, S. (2014). Perancangan Vendor Appraisal dengan Metode Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process di PT XYZ. Surjasa, D., Astuti, P., & Nugroho, H. (2005). Usulan Selection dengan Analytical Hierarchy Process dan Penenrapan Sistim Informasi dengan Konsep Vendor Managed Inventory pada PT ABC. Jakarta: Universitas Trisakti. Viarani, S. O., & Zadry, H. R. (2015). Analisis Pemilihan Pemasok dengan Metode Analitycal Hierarchy Process di Proyek Indarung VI PT Semen Padang. Wulandari, N. (t.thn.). Perancangan Sistem Pendukung Keputusan Pemilihan Supplier di PT Alfindo dengan Metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Wulandari Ratri (2015). Pemilihan Supplier Bahan Baku Partikel Dengan Metode AHP Dan Promethee Yulianto Joko (2017). Pemilihan Alat Pancang Menggunakan Expert Choice

Latar belakang : Posyandu merupakan salah satu upaya untuk meningkatkan taraf kesehatan di Indonesia, karena dalam kegiatan posyandu status gizi anak dapat diketahui sejak dini dan anak dapat memperoleh pelayanan kesehatan secara gratis, akan tetapi permasalahan kunjungan balita ke Posyandu masih jauh dari Standar Pelayanan minimal yaitu sebesar 90%. Tujuan penelitian yaitu untuk mengetahui pengaruh media leaflet terhadap peningkatan pengetahuan dan sikap orangtua balita ke posyandu di Lingkungan Jempong Baru Wilayah Kerja Puskesmas Karang Pule.Metode Penelitian : menggunakan quasi eksperiment dengan pendekatan pretest-posttest control group design. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah seluruh ibu balita di Lingkungan Jempong Baru sejumlah 873 responden. Jumlah sampel sebanyak 32 responden diambil secara purposive sampling. Instrument yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah kuesioner. Data yang diperoleh diolah dengan menggunakan uji Man Whitney.Hasil Penelitian rata–rata peningkatan pengetahuan pada kelompok intervensi sebesar 1,94 sedangkan peningkatan rata-rata sikap orangtua balita didapatkan 5,25 dan didapatkan , p= 0,000 (p<0,005) baik pengetahuan maupun sikap orangtua yang artinya pemberian media leaflet berpengaruh terhadap peningkatan pengetahuan dan sikap orang tua balita.Kesimpulan : penggunaan media leaflet dapat digunakan sebagai sarana untuk meningkatkan pengetahuan dan sikap orangtua balita ke posyandu sehingga diharapkan dengan adanya peningkatan tersebut cakupan dapat memenuhi target.Saran: diharapkan kepada pihak Puskesmas Karang Pule agar media edukasi ini dapat dijadikan sarana informasi kepada masyarakat. Kata Kunci :Media Edukasi, Leaflet, Pengetahuan, Sikap, Orangtua, Balita, Posyandu ABSTRACTBackground: Integrated Healthcare Center is one of the efforts to improve the level of health in Indonesia because children can know activities and the nutritional status of children from an early age, children can get free health services, children can understand the nutritional status of children from an early age, and children can get free health services, but the problem of visiting toddlers to Integrated Healthcare Center is still far from the minimum service standard of 90%. The purpose of the study was to determine the influence of leaflet media on increasing the knowledge and attitudes of parents of toddlers to the Integrated Healthcare Center in the Jempong Baru Environment of the Karang Pule Health Center Working Area.Research Methods: using quasi-experimental with a pretest-posttest control group design approach. The population in this study was all mothers of toddlers in the Jempong Public Health Center area, with a total of 873 respondents. The total sample of 32 respondents was taken by purposive sampling. The instrument used in this study was a questionnaire. The data obtained were processed using Man Whitney. Test.The study's results averaged an increase in knowledge in the intervention group of 1.94. In contrast, the average increase in the attitudes of parents of toddlers was obtained at 5.25 and acquired, p = 0.000 (p<0.005) both knowledge and parental attitudes, which means that the provision of leaflet media affects the increase in knowledge and attitudes of parents under five.Conclusion: the use of leaflet media can improve the knowledge and attitudes of parents of toddlers to Integrated Healthcare Center so that the coverage can meet the target with this increase.Suggestion: it is hoped that the Karang Pule Health Center so that this educational media can be used as a means of information to the public. Keywords: Educational Media, Leaflet, Knowledge, Attitude, Parents, Toddlers, Integrated Healthcare Center Ambarita, Lasbudi, Asmaul Husna, and Hotnida Sitorus. 2019. “Pengetahuan Kader Posyandu, Para Ibu Balita Dan Perspektif Tenaga Kesehatan Terkait Keaktifan Posyandu Di Kabupaten Aceh Barat.” Buletin Penelitian Sistem Kesehatan 22(3).Aminuddin, Aminuddin, Andi Zulkifli, and Nurhaedar Djafar. 2011. “Peningkatan Peran Posyandu Partisipatif Melalui Pendampingan Dan Pelatihan Upaya Pemantauan Pertumbuhan Dan Masalah Gizi Balita Di Bone, Sulawesi Selatan.” Kesmas: National Public Health Journal 5(5).Andan Firmansyah, Ahid Jahidin, and Nur Isriani Najamuddin. 2019. “EFEKTIVITAS PENYULUHAN DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MEDIA LEAFLET DAN VIDEO BAHASA DAERAH TERHADAP PENGETAHUAN BAHAYA ROKOK PADA REMAJA.” Bina Generasi : Jurnal Kesehatan 11(1).Atik, Nur Sri, and Rina Susanti. 2020. “HUBUNGAN PENGETAHUAN IBU BALITA DENGAN PERILAKU KUNJUNGAN BALITA KE POSYANDU.” Jurnal Ilmu Keperawatan dan Kebidanan 11(2).Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kesehatan. 2013. “Riset Kesehatan Dasar (RISKESDAS) 2013.” Laporan Nasional 2013: 1–384.Bingan, Elin Charla S. 2019. “EFEKTIVITAS MEDIA LEAFLET DAN TABLET FE PADA IBU HAMIL TERHADAP ANEMIA.” Mahakam Midwifery Journal (MMJ) 4(2).Enindelastri, La Ode Muhammad Sety, and Adius Kusnan. 2021. “Pengaruh Edukasi Melalui Media Leaflet Terhadap Pengetahuan Dan Sikap Siswa SMAN 14 Bombana Tentang Covid-19.” NURSING UPDATE : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Keperawatan P-ISSN : 2085-5931 e-ISSN : 2623-2871 12(4).Fauziah, Ani Nur, Siti Maesaroh, and Etik Sulistyorini. 2017. “PENGGUNAAN LEAFLET TERHADAP PENINGKATAN PENGETAHUAN TENTANG PEMERIKSAAN PAYUDARA SENDIRI.” Gaster 15(2).Handayani, Trisna Yuni, and Desi Pramita Sari. 2021. “Hubungan Pengetahuan Dan Sikap Remaja Dalam Mengatasi Dismenorea.” Medihealth : Jurnal Ilmu Kesehatan dan Sains 1(1).Hannanti, Herdara, Ibnu Malkan Bakhrul Ilmi, and Muh. Nur Hasan Syah. 2021. “Pengaruh Edukasi Gizi Melalui Komik Dan Leaflet Terhadap Peningkatan Pengetahuan Terkait Anemia Pada Remaja Putri Di Sma Negeri 14 Jakarta.” JURNAL GIZI DAN KESEHATAN 13(1).Herman, Andi, Mustafa Mustafa, Saida Saida, and Wa Ode Chalifa. 2021. “Hubungan Pengetahuan Dan Sikap Ibu Dengan Pemberian ASI Eksklusif.” PROFESSIONAL HEALTH JOURNAL 2(2).Jaji. 2020. “Pengaruh Pendidikan Kesehatan Dengan Media Leafletterhadap Pengetahuan Warga Dalam Pencegahan Penularan Covid 19.” Proceeding Seminar Nasional Keperawatan 2020 (1).Kasman, Kasman, Noorhidayah Noorhidayah, and Kasuma Bakti Persada. 2017. “STUDI EKSPERIMEN PENGGUNAAN MEDIA LEAFLET DAN VIDEO BAHAYA MEROKOK PADA REMAJA.” Jurnal Publikasi Kesehatan Masyarakat Indonesia 4(2).Kristania, Yustina Meisella, and Firda Dini Yulianti. 2019. “PERANCANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PELAYANAN PADA POSYANDU PEPAYA PURWOKERTO.” EVOLUSI - Jurnal Sains dan Manajemen 7(1).Kusmaryati, Paulin. 2019. “EFEKTIVITAS PENGGUNAAN LEAFLET DAN BUKU SAKU TERHADAP PENGETAHUAN DAN SIKAP WUS TENTANG DETEKSI DINI KANKER SERVIKS.” Jambura Journal of Health Sciences and Research 1(2).Lahmadi, Lusianti, Andi Muhammad Multazam, and Een Kurnaesih. 2021. “Evaluasi Kunjungan Balita Ke Posyandu Di Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Di Puskesmas Totikum Kab. Banggai Kepulauan.” Journal of Muslim Community Health (JMCH) 2(3).Mastryagung, Gusti Ayu Dwina, Ni Made Ayu Yulia RT, and Ni Ketut Noriani. 2019. “EFEKTIVITAS PEMBERIAN LEAFLET TERHADAP MOTIVASI DAN PENGETAHUAN IBU HAMIL TENTANG IMD.” Jurnal Riset Kesehatan Nasional 1(2): 164–69.Matdoan, Saadia, and Mariene Wiwin Dolang. 2020. “Pengaruh Konseling Teknik Menyusui Yang Benar Terhadap Pengetahuan Dan Sikap Pada Ibu Post Partum.” Pasapua Health Journal 2(1).Mustofa, Festi Ladyani, Ismalia Husna, Marisa Anggraini, and Ronal Angga Putra. 2021. “HUBUNGAN TINGKAT PENGETAHUAN DAN SIKAP MASYARAKAT TERHADAP KEPATUHAN PENERAPAN 3M DALAM RANGKA PENCEGAHAN COVID-19 DI RT 11 RW 12 JATINEGARA JAKARTA TIMUR.” Jurnal Medika Malahayati 5(2).Poltekkes Kemenkes Malang, Sunarti. 2019. “Peran, Kader, Posyandu PERAN KADER KESEHATAN DALAM PELAYANAN POSYANDU UPTD PUSKESMAS KECAMATAN SANANWETAN KOTA BLITAR.” Jurnal Keperawatan Malang 3(2).Prawesthi, Endang, Grace Valencia, Lorenta Marpaung, and Mujiwati Mujiwati. 2021. “PERBANDINGAN LEAFLET DAN VIDEO ANIMASI SEBAGAI MEDIA EDUKASI DALAM MENINGKATKAN PENGETAHUAN TERHADAP PENTINGNYA PENGGUNAAN GIGI TIRUAN PADA MAHASISWA POLTEKKES JAKARTA II.” Cakradonya Dental Journal 13(2).Pristya, Terry Y.R., and Rizki Amalia. 2021. “EDUKASI DENGAN MEDIA LEAFLET DALAM UPAYA PENINGKATAN PENGETAHUAN IBU TENTANG PEMBALUT KAIN.” Jurnal Bakti Masyarakat Indonesia 3(2).Purimahua, Sintha, Indriati Andolita Tedju Hinga, Ribka Limbu, and Sarinah Basri K. 2022. “Pengaruh Media Leaflet Terhadap Pengetahuan Dan Sikap Dalam Upaya Pencegahan Covid-19 Pada Pedagang Di Pasar.” Afiasi : Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat 6(3).Pusdatin Kemenkes RI. 2018. 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Aim: This study aimed to perform an economic evaluation of Hemophilia ambulatory service delivery model (HASDM) comparing to the traditional home-episodic treatment model. Study Design: Tehran university of medical science, department pharmacoeconomics and pharmaceutical administration, between Jun 2016 and September 2018. Methods: A cost-minimization analysis (CMA) was conducted for evaluating potential savings of HASDM in comparison to the traditional home-episodic treatment model. The main cost of regular episodic service delivery, basic arm, consists of the cost of recombinant factor VIII (FVIII). In the comparator arm, HASDM, the costs of HASDM for 1660 hemophilia A patients (HAPs) in Tehran were calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis was done to investigate the robustness of the results and to investigate the impact of uncertainty in the percentage of mistakes in bleeding sensation. Results: There were 1660 patients with severe Hemophilia A (PWSHA) in Tehran in 2018. The mean utilization of annual per patient FVIII was 44814 international units (IUs) in Iran. The total annual cost of FVIII concentrate for 1660 hemophilic patients in Tehran was estimated at $ 11,001,816. The cost of running HASDM, personal, and equipment is equal to $ 580,956. The cost of FVIII in HASDM would be $ 4,004,661. Therefore, the total cost of HASDM is estimated at $ 4,585,617. The amount of savings was $ 6,416,199. Sensitivity analysis indicated the robustness of the results up to 94.64% of the variation in the model parameters. Conclusions: HASDM, compared to episodic model, can save 58.32% of the funding for controlling bleeding in HAPs annually. This can save more than 38 times of HAPs annual cost over their lifetime.

AbstractCancer as an acquired genetic disease is based on changes both in the genome itself and in transcription processes. Accordingly, it is at the DNA level that it makes sense to search for and design agents capable of effective and selective anticancer action. In this study, we used an iterative approach based on a molecular dynamics simulation to design a highly selective DNA-intercalating agent called HASDI. To confirm its selective affinity to DNA, we conducted two simulation experiments: HASDI in a complex with a DNA fragment of the EBNA1 gene (it targets 16 nucleotide pairs of this gene) and HASDI in a complex with a random DNA fragment of the KCNH2 gene. The molecular dynamics simulation was carried out in the GROMACS 2019 package. The binding energy was calculated by gmx_MMPBSA 1.5.2. The further analysis was performed using the built-in utilities of GROMACS, gmx_MMPBSA and also XMGRACE and Pymol 1.8. As a result, we determined that the EBNA1-50nt/HASDI complex was stable throughout the whole simulation trajectory. HASDI, due to the presence of a linker modified depending on a specific pair of nitrogenous bases, formed an average of 32 hydrogen bonds with a sequence of 16 nucleotide pairs. Phenazine rings were stably intercalated every 2 base pairs. The root-mean-square deviation of HASDI in such a complex fluctuated around the value of 6.5 Å and had no tendency to increase. The calculated value of the binding free energy was − 235.3 ± 7.77 kcal/mol. The KCNH2-50nt/HASDI complex, as an example of the intercalation of the designed structure into a random part of the human genome, maintained the stability of its position at a level comparable to the EBNA1-50nt/HASDI complex. The phenazine rings were constantly intercalated in their original positions, and the root-mean-square deviation fluctuated around one value, although it had a tendency to chaotic changes. At the same time, this complex was characterized by 17–19 hydrogen bonds, on average, and the binding free energy was − 193.47 ± 14.09 kcal/mol. Moreover, the DNA duplex had local single-nucleotide melting in the region of the 4th linker. According to a significant decrease in the number of hydrogen bonds, a decrease in energy gain, as well as a decrease in the stability of the DNA duplex characteristic of the KCNH2-50nt/HASDI complex compared to the target EBNA1-50nt/HASDI complex, the molecule we designed can be considered a potentially selective DNA polyintercalating agent capable of relatively accurate recognition of 16 base pairs.

Aims The semi-empirical Drag Temperature Models (DTM) calculate the Earth's upper atmosphere's temperature, density, and composition. They were applied mainly for spacecraft orbit computation. We developed an uncertainty tool that we implemented in the DTM2020 thermosphere model. The model is assessed and compared with the recently HASDM neutral density released publicly in 2020. Methods The total neutral density dataset covers all high-resolution CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE, and SWARM data spanning almost two solar cycles. We constructed the uncertainty model using statistical binning analysis and least-square fitting techniques, allowing the development of a global sigma error model to function the main variabilities driving the thermosphere state. The model is represented mathematically by a nonlinear manifold approximation in a 6-D space parameter. Results The results reveal that the altitude parameter presents the most notable error range during quiet and moderate magnetic activity ( [[EQUATION]] ). However, the most considerable uncertainty appears during severe or extreme geomagnetic activities. The comparison with density data provided by the SET HASDM database highlights some coherent features on the mechanisms occurring in the thermosphere. Moreover, it confirms the tool's relevance to provide a qualitative database of neutral densities uncertainties values deduced from the DTM2020 model.

AbstractSpace weather indices are used to drive forecasts of thermosphere density, which directly affects objects in low‐Earth orbit (LEO) through atmospheric drag force. A set of proxies and indices (drivers), F10.7, S10.7, M10.7, and Y10.7 are used as inputs by the JB2008, (https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2008‐6438) thermosphere density model. The United States Air Force (USAF) operational High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM), relies on JB2008, (https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2008‐6438), and forecasts of solar drivers from a linear algorithm. We introduce methods using long short‐term memory (LSTM) model ensembles to improve over the current prediction method as well as a previous univariate approach. We investigate the usage of principal component analysis (PCA) to enhance multivariate forecasting. A novel method, referred to as striped sampling, is created to produce statistically consistent machine learning data sets. We also investigate forecasting performance and uncertainty estimation by varying the training loss function and by investigating novel weighting methods. Results show that stacked neural network model ensembles make multivariate driver forecasts which outperform the operational linear method. When using MV‐MLE (multivariate multi‐lookback ensemble), we see an improvement of RMSE for F10.7, S10.7, M10.7, and Y10.7 of 17.7%, 12.3%, 13.8%, 13.7% respectively, over the operational method. We provide the first probabilistic forecasting method for S10.7, M10.7, and Y10.7. Ensemble approaches are leveraged to provide a distribution of predicted values, allowing an investigation into robustness and reliability (R&R) of uncertainty estimates. Uncertainty was also investigated through the use of calibration error score (CES), with the MV‐MLE providing an average CES of 5.63%, across all drivers.

AbstractMachine learning (ML) has been applied to space weather problems with increasing frequency in recent years, driven by an influx of in-situ measurements and a desire to improve modeling and forecasting capabilities throughout the field. Space weather originates from solar perturbations and is comprised of the resulting complex variations they cause within the numerous systems between the Sun and Earth. These systems are often tightly coupled and not well understood. This creates a need for skillful models with knowledge about the confidence of their predictions. One example of such a dynamical system highly impacted by space weather is the thermosphere, the neutral region of Earth’s upper atmosphere. Our inability to forecast it has severe repercussions in the context of satellite drag and computation of probability of collision between two space objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) for decision making in space operations. Even with (assumed) perfect forecast of model drivers, our incomplete knowledge of the system results in often inaccurate thermospheric neutral mass density predictions. Continuing efforts are being made to improve model accuracy, but density models rarely provide estimates of confidence in predictions. In this work, we propose two techniques to develop nonlinear ML regression models to predict thermospheric density while providing robust and reliable uncertainty estimates: Monte Carlo (MC) dropout and direct prediction of the probability distribution, both using the negative logarithm of predictive density (NLPD) loss function. We show the performance capabilities for models trained on both local and global datasets. We show that the NLPD loss provides similar results for both techniques but the direct probability distribution prediction method has a much lower computational cost. For the global model regressed on the Space Environment Technologies High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) density database, we achieve errors of approximately 11% on independent test data with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Using an in-situ CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) density dataset, models developed using both techniques provide test error on the order of 13%. The CHAMP models—on validation and test data—are within 2% of perfect calibration for the twenty prediction intervals tested. We show that this model can also be used to obtain global density predictions with uncertainties at a given epoch.