Статті в журналах з теми "Global microbiologal risk model"
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1
Oludoun, Olajumoke, Olukayode Adebimpe, James Ndako, Oluwakemi E. Abiodun, Babatunde Gbadamosi, and Benedicta B. Aladeitan. "Global stability analysis of hepatitis B virus dynamics." F1000Research 10 (May 28, 2021): 429. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.52785.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This paper considers the impact of an acute individual's spontaneous clearance, recovery of a chronic individual with full immunity, and risk factor reduction on a hepatitis B virus (HBV) model. The existence and the positivity solution of the model are established. The model threshold quantity is defined and sensitivity analysis is analyzed to demonstrate the effect of various parameters on the spread of the virus. The global stability analysis of the equilibrium is shown using Lyapunov and comparison theorem methods. Finally, computational simulation is presented to validate the analytical solution. The results show that treatment, spontaneous clearance and reduction of the risk factor are highly successful in transmitting and regulating HBV transmission. The effective measure of these parameters as substantiated by our simulations, providing an excellent control method of the transmissible infection of HBV.
2
Oludoun, Olajumoke, Olukayode Adebimpe, James Ndako, Oluwakemi E. Abiodun, Babatunde Gbadamosi, and Benedicta B. Aladeitan. "Global stability analysis of hepatitis B virus dynamics." F1000Research 10 (January 21, 2022): 429. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.52785.2.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This paper considers the impact of an acute individual's spontaneous clearance, recovery of a chronic individual with full immunity, and risk factor reduction on a hepatitis B virus (HBV) model. The existence and the positivity solution of the model are established. The model threshold quantity is defined and sensitivity analysis is analyzed to demonstrate the effect of various parameters on the spread of the virus. The global stability analysis of the equilibrium is shown using Lyapunov and comparison theorem methods. Finally, computational simulation is presented to validate the analytical solution. The results show that treatment, spontaneous clearance and reduction of the risk factor are highly successful in transmitting and regulating HBV transmission. The effective measure of these parameters as substantiated by our simulations, providing an excellent control method of the transmissible infection of HBV.
3
Zhang, Chao, Yanzhao Yang, Zhiming Feng, Chiwei Xiao, Tingting Lang, Wenpeng Du, and Ying Liu. "Risk of Global External Cereals Supply under the Background of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Based on the Perspective of Trade Network." Foods 10, no. 6 (May 23, 2021): 1168. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods10061168.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
International food trade is an integral part of the food system, and the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of external food supplies. Based on the perspective of cereals trade networks (CTN), the pandemic risk is combined with the trade intensity between countries, and an assessment model of cereals external supply risk is constructed that includes external dependence index (EDI), import concentration, and risk of COVID-19 from import countries index (RICI). The results show that: (1) the global main CTN have typical scale-free characteristics, and seven communities are detected under the influence of the core countries; (2) about 60%, 50%, and 70% of countries face risks of medium and above (high and very high) external dependence, concentration of imports, and COVID-19 in the country of origin, respectively. Under the influence of the pandemic, the risk of global external cereal supply index (RECSI) has increased by 65%, and the USA-CAN communities show the highest risk index; (3) the countries with a very high risk are mainly the Pacific island countries and the Latin American and African countries. In addition, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and 80% of the net food-importing developing countries are at high or very high RECSI levels. Approximately 50% of countries belong to the compound risk type, and many export countries belong to the RICI risk type; (4) global external food supply is subjected to multiple potential threats such as trade interruption, “price crisis”, and “payment dilemma”. The geographical proximity of community members and the geographical proximity of the pandemic risk is superimposed, increasing the regional risk of external food supply; and (5) this study confirms that the food-exporting countries should avoid the adoption of food export restriction measures and can prevent potential external supply risks from the dimensions of maintaining global food liquidity and promoting diversification of import sources. We believe that our assessment model of cereals external supply risk comprises a useful method for investigations regarding the international CTN or global food crisis under the background of the pandemic.
4
Zhang, Chao, Yanzhao Yang, Zhiming Feng, Chiwei Xiao, Ying Liu, Xinzhe Song, and Tingting Lang. "Cold Chain Food and COVID-19 Transmission Risk: From the Perspective of Consumption and Trade." Foods 11, no. 7 (March 22, 2022): 908. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods11070908.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), political and academic circles have focused significant attention on stopping the chain of COVID-19 transmission. In particular outbreaks related to cold chain food (CCF) have been reported, and there remains a possibility that CCF can be a carrier. Based on CCF consumption and trade matrix data, here, the “source” of COVID-19 transmission through CCF was analyzed using a complex network analysis method, informing the construction of a risk assessment model reflecting internal and external transmission dynamics. The model included the COVID-19 risk index, CCF consumption level, urbanization level, CCF trade quantity, and others. The risk level of COVID-19 transmission by CCF and the dominant risk types were analyzed at national and global scales as well as at the community level. The results were as follows. (1) The global CCF trade network is typically dominated by six core countries in six main communities, such as Indonesia, Argentina, Ukraine, Netherlands, and the USA. These locations are one of the highest sources of risk for COVID-19 transmission. (2) The risk of COVID-19 transmission by CCF in specific trade communities is higher than the global average, with the Netherlands–Germany community being at the highest level. There are eight European countries (i.e., Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, France, Spain, Britain, Italy, and Poland) and three American countries (namely the USA, Mexico, and Brazil) facing a very high level of COVID-19 transmission risk by CCF. (3) Of the countries, 62% are dominated by internal diffusion and 23% by external input risk. The countries with high comprehensive transmission risk mainly experience risks from external inputs. This study provides methods for tracing the source of virus transmission and provides a policy reference for preventing the chain of COVID-19 transmission by CCF and maintaining the security of the global food supply chain.
5
Dakhil, Mohammed A., Ali El-Keblawy, Mohamed A. El-Sheikh, Marwa Waseem A. Halmy, Taoufik Ksiksi, and Walaa A. Hassan. "Global Invasion Risk Assessment of Prosopis juliflora at Biome Level: Does Soil Matter?" Biology 10, no. 3 (March 9, 2021): 203. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology10030203.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Prosopis juliflora is one of the most problematic invasive trees in tropical and subtropical regions. Understanding driving forces affecting the potential global distribution would help in managing its current and future spread. The role of climate on the global spatial distribution of P. juliflora has been well studied, but little is known about the role of soil and human impacts as potential drivers. Here, we used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) for species distribution modelling to understand the role of climate (C), soil (S) and human impacts (H), C+S, and C+S+H in controlling the potential invasion range of P. juliflora, and to project its global potential invasive risk. We defined the top threatened global biomes, as predicted by the best-selected model. The incorporation of the edaphic factors improved the model performance and enhanced the accuracy of the outcome. Our findings revealed that the potential invasion risk increases with increases in mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), soil alkalinity and clay fractions. Arid and semi-arid lands are at the highest risk of invasion than other moist biomes.
6
Piyatilake, I. T. S., and S. S. N. Perera. "Fuzzy Multidimensional Model to Cluster Dengue Risk in Sri Lanka." BioMed Research International 2020 (November 4, 2020): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/2420948.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Dengue is the world’s rapidly transmitting mosquito-borne viral disease. It is mostly found in subtropical countries in the world. The annual number of global deaths caused by dengue fever is about 25,000. The Sri Lanka dengue situation is also not different to other countries. In the year 2019, dengue fever caused 120 deaths in Sri Lanka. Most of these deaths were reported from the main administrative district Colombo. Health authorities have to pay their attention to control this new situation. Therefore, identifying the hot spots in the country and implementing necessary actions to control the disease is an important task. This study aims to develop a clustering technique to identify the dengue hot spots in Sri Lanka. Suitable risk factors are identified using expert ideas and reviewing available literature. The weights are derived using Chang’s extent method. These weights are used to prioritize the factors associated with dengue. Using the geometric mean, the interaction between the triggering variable and other variables is calculated. According to the interaction matrices, five dengue risk clusters are identified. It is found that high population movement in the area plays a dominant role to transmit the disease to other areas. Most of the districts in Sri Lanka will reach to moderate risk cluster in the year 2022.
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Oyelade, Tope, Jaber S. Alqahtani, Ahmed M. Hjazi, Amy Li, Ami Kamila, and Reynie Purnama Raya. "Global and Regional Prevalence and Outcomes of COVID-19 in People Living with HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis." Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 7, no. 2 (February 3, 2022): 22. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7020022.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Background: The relationship between HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) and COVID-19 clinical outcome is uncertain, with conflicting data and hypotheses. We aimed to assess the prevalence of people living with HIV (PLWH) among COVID-19 cases and whether HIV infection affects the risk of severe COVID-19 or related death at the global and continental level. Methods: Electronic databases were systematically searched in July 2021. In total, 966 studies were screened following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Narratives were synthesised and data pooled for the global and continental prevalence of HIV–SARS-CoV-2 coinfection. The relative risks of severity and mortality in HIV-infected COVID-19 patients were computed using a random-effect model. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle–Ottawa score and Egger’s test, and presented as funnel plots. Results: In total, 43 studies were included involving 692,032 COVID-19 cases, of whom 9097 (1.3%) were PLWH. The global prevalence of PLWH among COVID-19 cases was 2% (95% CI = 1.7–2.3%), with the highest prevalence observed in sub-Saharan Africa. The relative risk (RR) of severe COVID-19 in PLWH was significant only in Africa (RR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.05–1.24), while the relative risk of mortality was 1.5 (95% CI = 1.45–2.03) globally. The calculated global risk showed that HIV infection may be linked with increased COVID-19 death. The between-study heterogeneity was significantly high, while the risk of publication bias was not significant. Conclusions: Although there is a low prevalence of PLWH among COVID-19 cases, HIV infection may increase the severity of COVID-19 in Africa and increase the risk of death globally.
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Wang, Feiyu, Chesheng Zhan, and Lei Zou. "Risk of Crop Yield Reduction in China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming from CMIP6 Models." Foods 12, no. 2 (January 15, 2023): 413. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods12020413.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Warmer temperatures significantly influence crop yields, which are a critical determinant of food supply and human well-being. In this study, a probabilistic approach based on bivariate copula models was used to investigate the dependence (described by joint distribution) between crop yield and growing season temperature (TGS) in the major producing provinces of China for three staple crops (i.e., rice, wheat, and maize). Based on the outputs of 12 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5, the probability of yield reduction under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming was estimated, which has great implications for agricultural risk management. Results showed that yield response to TGS varied with crop and region, with the most vulnerable being rice in Sichuan, wheat in Sichuan and Gansu, and maize in Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin, Nei Mongol, Shanxi, and Hebei. Among the selected five copulas, Archimedean/elliptical copulas were more suitable to describe the joint distribution between TGS and yield in most rice-/maize-producing provinces. The probability of yield reduction was greater in vulnerable provinces than in non-vulnerable provinces, with maize facing a higher risk of warming-driven yield loss than rice and wheat. Compared to the 1.5 °C global warming, an additional 0.5 °C warming would increase the yield loss risk in vulnerable provinces by 2–17%, 1–16%, and 3–17% for rice, wheat, and maize, respectively. The copula-based model proved to be an effective tool to provide probabilistic estimates of yield reduction due to warming and can be applied to other crops and regions. The results of this study demonstrated the importance of keeping global warming within 1.5 °C to mitigate the yield loss risk and optimize agricultural decision-making in vulnerable regions.
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Tanaka, Tetsuji, Özge Geyik, and Bariş Karapinar. "Short-Term Implications of Climate Shocks on Wheat-Based Nutrient Flows: A Global “Nutrition at Risk” Analysis through a Stochastic CGE Model." Foods 10, no. 6 (June 18, 2021): 1414. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods10061414.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Food security analyses of international trade largely overlook the importance of substantial heterogeneity and complexity of nutrient content in food products. This paper quantifies the extent to which wheat-based nutrient supplies, including energy, protein, iron, zinc, and magnesium, are exposed to the risks of realistic productivity and trade shocks. By employing a static and stochastic world trade computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we find that productivity shocks may result in losses in households’ nutrient consumption of up to 18% for protein, 33.1% for zinc, and 37.4% for magnesium. Significant losses are observed in countries mostly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia. Since the main centers of wheat exports have recently been shifting to former Soviet Union countries, we also simulated the nutritional risks of export restrictions imposed by the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, which have resorted to this policy instrument in recent years. We find that partial export restrictions increase the probability of nutrient shocks by five times or more in most countries that we studied. Increased nutrient deficiencies have a range of public health implications in the affected countries, which could be mitigated and/or avoided by adjusting production and trade policies and by targeting high nutritional risk groups, such as women and children. Since the potential implications of supply shocks are diffused across countries through international trade, the stricter regulation of export restrictions to enhance the predictably and reliability of global food supplies is also needed.
10
Li, Linlin, Zhiyi Fang, Hongning Zhou, Yerong Tang, Xin Wang, Geng Liang, and Fengjun Zhang. "Dengue Risk Forecast with Mosquito Vector: A Multicomponent Fusion Approach Based on Spatiotemporal Analysis." Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 2022 (June 2, 2022): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2515432.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Dengue as an acute infectious disease threatens global public health and has sparked broad research interest. However, existing studies generally ignore the spatial dependencies involved in dengue forecast, and consideration of temporal periodicity is absent. In this work, we propose a spatiotemporal component fusion model (STCFM) to solve the dengue risk forecast issue. Considering that mosquitoes are an important vector of dengue transmission, we introduce feature factors involving mosquito abundance and spatiotemporal lags to model temporal trends and spatial distributions separately on the basis of statistical properties. Specifically, we conduct multiscale modeling of temporal dependencies to enhance the forecast capability of relevant periods by capturing the historical variation patterns of the data across different segments in the temporal dimension. In the spatial dimension, we quantify the multivariate spatial correlation analysis as additional features to strengthen the spatial feature representation and adopt the ConvLSTM model to learn spatial dependencies adequately. The final forecast results are obtained by stacking strategy fusion in ensemble learning. We conduct experiments on real dengue datasets. The results indicate that STCFM improves prediction accuracy through effective spatiotemporal feature representations and outperforms candidate models with a reasonable component construction strategy.
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Bai, Zhixun, Jing Lu, Ting Li, Yi Ma, Zhijiang Liu, Ranzun Zhao, Zhenglong Wang, and Bei Shi. "Clinical Feature-Based Machine Learning Model for 1-Year Mortality Risk Prediction of ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction in Patients with Hyperuricemia: A Retrospective Study." Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 2021 (July 5, 2021): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/7252280.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Accurate risk assessment of high-risk patients is essential in clinical practice. However, there is no practical method to predict or monitor the prognosis of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) complicated by hyperuricemia. We aimed to evaluate the performance of different machine learning models for the prediction of 1-year mortality in STEMI patients with hyperuricemia. We compared five machine learning models (logistic regression, k -nearest neighbor, CatBoost, random forest, and XGBoost) with the traditional global (GRACE) risk score for acute coronary event registrations. We registered patients aged >18 years diagnosed with STEMI and hyperuricemia at the Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University between January 2016 and January 2020. Overall, 656 patients were enrolled (average age, 62.5 ± 13.6 years ; 83.6%, male). All patients underwent emergency percutaneous coronary intervention. We evaluated the performance of five machine learning classifiers and the GRACE risk model in predicting 1-year mortality. The area under the curve (AUC) of the six models, including the GRACE risk model, ranged from 0.75 to 0.88. Among all the models, CatBoost had the highest predictive accuracy (0.89), AUC (0.87), precision (0.84), and F1 value (0.44). After hybrid sampling technique optimization, CatBoost had the highest accuracy (0.96), AUC (0.99), precision (0.95), and F1 value (0.97). Machine learning algorithms, especially the CatBoost model, can accurately predict the mortality associated with STEMI complicated by hyperuricemia after a 1-year follow-up.
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Lee, Tien Ming, and Walter Jetz. "Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 278, no. 1710 (October 13, 2010): 1329–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.1877.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.
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Charitos, Ioannis Alexandros, Andrea Ballini, Roberto Lovero, Francesca Castellaneta, Marica Colella, Salvatore Scacco, Stefania Cantore, Roberto Arrigoni, Filiberto Mastrangelo, and Mario Dioguardi. "Update on COVID-19 and Effectiveness of a Vaccination Campaign in a Global Context." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 17 (August 28, 2022): 10712. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191710712.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 remains a significant issue for global health, the economy, and society. When SARS-CoV-2 began to spread, the most recent serious infectious disease of this century around the world, with its high morbidity and mortality rates, it is understandable why such infections have generally been spread in the past, mainly from international travel movements. This perspective review aimed to provide an update for clinicians on the recent developments related to the microbiological perspectives in pandemics, diagnostics, prevention (such as the spread of a virus), vaccination campaigns, treatment options, and health consequences for COVID-19 based on the current literature. In this way, the authors attempt to raise awareness on the transversal nature of these challenges by identifying the main risk/vulnerability factors that the scientific community must face including our current knowledge on the virus capacity of the mechanism of entry into the cells, the current classifications of viral variants, the knowledge of the mathematical model on the spread of viruses (the possible routes of transmission), and the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in a global context of pandemic, particularly from COVID-19, with a look at new or future vaccines.
14
Muñoz-Pérez, Carolina, Jaime Bosch, Satoshi Ito, Marta Martínez-Avilés, and José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno. "Quantitative Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Introduction into Spain by Legal Import of Live Pigs." Pathogens 11, no. 1 (January 8, 2022): 76. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11010076.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present. The current spread of ASF in Europe and its recent incursion into Germany pose a serious risk to Spain, one of the world’s leading pig producers. A quantitative stochastic risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability of ASF introduction into Spain via the legal import of live pigs. The results suggest a low annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain (1.07 × 10−4), the highest risk being concentrated in Central European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) during the months of April and February. The methods and results presented herein could contribute to improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.
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Verde Arregoitia, Luis Darcy, Simon P. Blomberg, and Diana O. Fisher. "Phylogenetic correlates of extinction risk in mammals: species in older lineages are not at greater risk." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 280, no. 1765 (August 22, 2013): 20131092. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1092.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Phylogenetic information is becoming a recognized basis for evaluating conservation priorities, but associations between extinction risk and properties of a phylogeny such as diversification rates and phylogenetic lineage ages remain unclear. Limited taxon-specific analyses suggest that species in older lineages are at greater risk. We calculate quantitative properties of the mammalian phylogeny and model extinction risk as an ordinal index based on International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List categories. We test for associations between lineage age, clade size, evolutionary distinctiveness and extinction risk for 3308 species of terrestrial mammals. We show no significant global or regional associations, and three significant relationships within taxonomic groups. Extinction risk increases for evolutionarily distinctive primates and decreases with lineage age when lemurs are excluded. Lagomorph species (rabbits, hares and pikas) that have more close relatives are less threatened. We examine the relationship between net diversification rates and extinction risk for 173 genera and find no pattern. We conclude that despite being under-represented in the frequency distribution of lineage ages, species in older, slower evolving and distinct lineages are not more threatened or extinction-prone. Their extinction, however, would represent a disproportionate loss of unique evolutionary history.
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Jiang, Yanyan, Xuefeng Jiang, Wenjun Tong, and Jingming Zhou. "Quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of COVID-19." Journal of Infection in Developing Countries 14, no. 10 (October 31, 2020): 1106–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.3855/jidc.13150.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The coronavirus pandemic is the biggest in the past 100 years, affected over 200 countries and killed over 300 thousand people. To better understand the epidemics in different areas, the progress percentage was generated in this study by dividing everyday total confirmed case number by the up-to-date total case number, so data obtained from different countries and territories can be put together and compared directly regardless of the large difference in the magnitude of numbers. The global outbreak data were analyzed and categorized into 4 groups based on different epidemic curve stages. The grouping pattern suggests that the geographical position may not play a critical role in the progress of COVID-19 epidemic. In this report, we also used a mathematic model to predict the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in UK, USA and Canada in Group 3, providing valuable information for assessing the risk in these countries and the timing of reopening business.
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Colella, Jocelyn P., John Bates, Santiago F. Burneo, M. Alejandra Camacho, Carlos Carrion Bonilla, Isabel Constable, Guillermo D’Elía, et al. "Leveraging natural history biorepositories as a global, decentralized, pathogen surveillance network." PLOS Pathogens 17, no. 6 (June 3, 2021): e1009583. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1009583.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic reveals a major gap in global biosecurity infrastructure: a lack of publicly available biological samples representative across space, time, and taxonomic diversity. The shortfall, in this case for vertebrates, prevents accurate and rapid identification and monitoring of emerging pathogens and their reservoir host(s) and precludes extended investigation of ecological, evolutionary, and environmental associations that lead to human infection or spillover. Natural history museum biorepositories form the backbone of a critically needed, decentralized, global network for zoonotic pathogen surveillance, yet this infrastructure remains marginally developed, underutilized, underfunded, and disconnected from public health initiatives. Proactive detection and mitigation for emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) requires expanded biodiversity infrastructure and training (particularly in biodiverse and lower income countries) and new communication pipelines that connect biorepositories and biomedical communities. To this end, we highlight a novel adaptation of Project ECHO’s virtual community of practice model: Museums and Emerging Pathogens in the Americas (MEPA). MEPA is a virtual network aimed at fostering communication, coordination, and collaborative problem-solving among pathogen researchers, public health officials, and biorepositories in the Americas. MEPA now acts as a model of effective international, interdisciplinary collaboration that can and should be replicated in other biodiversity hotspots. We encourage deposition of wildlife specimens and associated data with public biorepositories, regardless of original collection purpose, and urge biorepositories to embrace new specimen sources, types, and uses to maximize strategic growth and utility for EID research. Taxonomically, geographically, and temporally deep biorepository archives serve as the foundation of a proactive and increasingly predictive approach to zoonotic spillover, risk assessment, and threat mitigation.
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Barker, Brittany S., Leonard Coop, and Chuanxue Hong. "Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen (Calonectria pseudonaviculata) as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative Models." Biology 11, no. 6 (June 1, 2022): 849. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology11060849.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Boxwood blight caused by Cps is an emerging disease that has had devastating impacts on Buxus spp. in the horticultural sector, landscapes, and native ecosystems. In this study, we produced a process-based climatic suitability model in the CLIMEX program and combined outputs of four different correlative modeling algorithms to generate an ensemble correlative model. All models were fit and validated using a presence record dataset comprised of Cps detections across its entire known invaded range. Evaluations of model performance provided validation of good model fit for all models. A consensus map of CLIMEX and ensemble correlative model predictions indicated that not-yet-invaded areas in eastern and southern Europe and in the southeastern, midwestern, and Pacific coast regions of North America are climatically suitable for Cps establishment. Most regions of the world where Buxus and its congeners are native are also at risk of establishment. These findings provide the first insights into Cps global invasion threat, suggesting that this invasive pathogen has the potential to significantly expand its range.
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Zeb, Anwar, Ebraheem Alzahrani, Vedat Suat Erturk, and Gul Zaman. "Mathematical Model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Containing Isolation Class." BioMed Research International 2020 (June 29, 2020): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/3452402.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The deadly coronavirus continues to spread across the globe, and mathematical models can be used to show suspected, recovered, and deceased coronavirus patients, as well as how many people have been tested. Researchers still do not know definitively whether surviving a COVID-19 infection means you gain long-lasting immunity and, if so, for how long? In order to understand, we think that this study may lead to better guessing the spread of this pandemic in future. We develop a mathematical model to present the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 infection by incorporating isolation class. First, the formulation of model is proposed; then, positivity of the model is discussed. The local stability and global stability of proposed model are presented, which depended on the basic reproductive. For the numerical solution of the proposed model, the nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme and Runge-Kutta fourth order method are used. Finally, some graphical results are presented. Our findings show that human to human contact is the potential cause of outbreaks of COVID-19. Therefore, isolation of the infected human overall can reduce the risk of future COVID-19 spread.
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Abiodun, Oluwakemi E., Olukayode Adebimpe, James A. Ndako, Olajumoke Oludoun, Benedicta Aladeitan, and Michael Adeniyi. "Mathematical modeling of HIV-HCV co-infection model: Impact of parameters on reproduction number." F1000Research 11 (October 10, 2022): 1153. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.124555.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Background: Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) are both as classified blood-borne viruses since they are transmitted through contact with contaminated blood. Approximately 1.3 million of the 2.75 million global HIV/HCV carriers inject drugs (PWID). HIV co-infection has a harmful effect on the progression of HCV, resulting in greater rates of HCV persistence after acute infection, higher viral levels, and accelerated progression of liver fibrosis and end-stage liver disease. In this study, we developed and investigated a mathematical model for the dynamical behavior of HIV/AIDS and HCV co-infection, which includes therapy for both diseases, vertical transmission in HIV cases, unawareness and awareness of HIV infection, inefficient HIV treatment follow-up, and efficient condom use. Methods: Positivity and boundedness of the model under investigation were established using well-known theorems. The equilibria were demonstrated by bringing all differential equations to zero. The associative reproduction numbers for mono-infected and dual-infected models were calculated using the next-generation matrix approach. The local and global stabilities of the models were validated using the linearization and comparison theorem and the negative criterion techniques of bendixson and dulac, respectively. Results: The growing prevalence of HIV treatment dropout in each compartment of the HIV model led to a reduction in HIV on treatment compartments while other compartments exhibited an increase in populations. In dually infected patients, treating HCV first reduces co-infection reproduction number Rech, which reduces liver cancer risk. Conclusions: From the model's results, we infer various steps that policymakers could take to reduce the number of mono-infected and co-infected individuals.
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Miyai, Takayuki, Shungo Imai, Hitoshi Kashiwagi, Yuki Sato, Shota Kadomura, Kenji Yoshida, Eri Yoshimura, et al. "A Risk Prediction Flowchart of Vancomycin-Induced Acute Kidney Injury to Use When Starting Vancomycin Administration: A Multicenter Retrospective Study." Antibiotics 9, no. 12 (December 18, 2020): 920. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/antibiotics9120920.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
We previously constructed a risk prediction model of vancomycin (VCM)-associated nephrotoxicity for use when performing initial therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), using decision tree analysis. However, we could not build a model to be used at the time of initial administration due to insufficient sample size. Therefore, we performed a multicenter study at four hospitals in Japan. We investigated patients who received VCM intravenously at a standard dose from the first day until the initial TDM from November 2011 to March 2019. Acute kidney injury (AKI) was defined according to the criteria established by the “Kidney disease: Improving global outcomes” group. We extracted potential risk factors that could be evaluated on the day of initial administration and constructed a flowchart using a chi-squared automatic interaction detection algorithm. Among 843 patients, 115 (13.6%) developed AKI. The flowchart comprised three splitting variables (concomitant drugs (vasopressor drugs and tazobactam/piperacillin) and body mass index ≥ 30) and four subgroups. The incidence rates of AKI ranged from 9.34 to 36.8%, and they were classified as low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. The accuracy of flowchart was judged appropriate (86.4%). We successfully constructed a simple flowchart predicting VCM-induced AKI to be used when starting VCM administration.
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Abiodun, Oluwakemi E., Olukayode Adebimpe, James A. Ndako, Olajumoke Oludoun, Benedicta Aladeitan, and Michael Adeniyi. "Mathematical modeling of HIV-HCV co-infection model: Impact of parameters on reproduction number." F1000Research 11 (December 19, 2022): 1153. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.124555.2.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Background: Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) are both classified as blood-borne viruses since they are transmitted through contact with contaminated blood. Approximately 1.3 million of the 2.75 million global HIV/HCV carriers are people who inject drugs (PWID). HIV co-infection has a harmful effect on the progression of HCV, resulting in greater rates of HCV persistence after acute infection, higher viral levels, and accelerated progression of liver fibrosis and end-stage liver disease. In this study, we developed and investigated a mathematical model for the dynamical behavior of HIV/AIDS and HCV co-infection, which includes therapy for both diseases, vertical transmission in HIV cases, unawareness and awareness of HIV infection, inefficient HIV treatment follow-up, and efficient condom use. Methods: Positivity and boundedness of the model under investigation were established using well-known theorems. The equilibria were demonstrated by bringing all differential equations to zero. The associative reproduction numbers for mono-infected and dual-infected models were calculated using the next-generation matrix approach. The local and global stabilities of the models were validated using the linearization and comparison theorem and the negative criterion techniques of bendixson and dulac, respectively. Results: The growing prevalence of HIV treatment dropout in each compartment of the HIV model led to a reduction in HIV on treatment compartments while other compartments exhibited an increase in populations. In dually infected patients, treating HCV first reduces co-infection reproduction number Rech, which reduces liver cancer risk. Conclusions: From the model's results, we infer various steps (such as: campaigns to warn individuals about the consequences of having multiple sexual partners; distributing more condoms to individuals; continuing treatment for chronic HCV and AIDS) that policymakers could take to reduce the number of mono-infected and co-infected individuals.
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Ruete, Alejandro, Wei Yang, Lars Bärring, Nils Chr Stenseth, and Tord Snäll. "Disentangling effects of uncertainties on population projections: climate change impact on an epixylic bryophyte." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 279, no. 1740 (March 28, 2012): 3098–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2012.0428.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Assessment of future ecosystem risks should account for the relevant uncertainty sources. This means accounting for the joint effects of climate variables and using modelling techniques that allow proper treatment of uncertainties. We investigate the influence of three of the IPCC's scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (special report on emission scenarios (SRES)) on projections of the future abundance of a bryophyte model species. We also compare the relative importance of uncertainty sources on the population projections. The whole chain global climate model (GCM)—regional climate model—population dynamics model is addressed. The uncertainty depends on both natural- and model-related sources, in particular on GCM uncertainty. Ignoring the uncertainties gives an unwarranted impression of confidence in the results. The most likely population development of the bryophyte Buxbaumia viridis towards the end of this century is negative: even with a low-emission scenario, there is more than a 65 per cent risk for the population to be halved. The conclusion of a population decline is valid for all SRES scenarios investigated. Uncertainties are no longer an obstacle, but a mandatory aspect to include in the viability analysis of populations.
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Zaffarini, Eva, and Philipp Mitteroecker. "Secular changes in body height predict global rates of caesarean section." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 286, no. 1896 (February 6, 2019): 20182425. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2425.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The massive global variation in caesarean-section (C-section) rate is usually attributed to socio-economic, medical and cultural heterogeneity. Here, we show that a third of the global variance in current national C-section rate can be explained by the trends of adult body height from the 1970s to the 1990s. In many countries, living conditions have continually improved during the last century, which has led to an increase in both fetal and adult average body size. As the fetus is one generation ahead of the mother, the fetus is likely to experience better environmental conditions during development than the mother did, causing a disproportionately large fetus and an increased risk of obstructed labour. A structural equation model revealed that socio-economic development and access to healthcare affect C-section rate via multiple causal pathways, but the strongest direct effect on C-section rate was body height change. These results indicate that the historical trajectory of socio-economic development affects—via its influence on pre- and postnatal growth—the intergenerational relationship between maternal and fetal dimensions and thus the difficulty of labour. This sheds new light on historic and prehistoric transitions of childbirth and questions the World Health Organization (WHO) suggestion for a global ‘ideal' C-section rate.
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Khalid, Ali Qusay, Vasudeva Rao Avupati, Husniza Hussain, and Tabarek Najeeb Zaidan. "Computational Atom-based Three-Dimensional Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (3D QSAR) Model for Predicting Anti-Dengue Agents." Research Journal of Biotechnology 16, no. 10 (September 25, 2021): 50–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.25303/1610rjbt5058.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Dengue fever is a viral infection spread by the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. It is a virus spread by mosquitoes found all over the tropics with risk levels varying depending on rainfall, relative humidity, temperature and urbanization. There are no specific medications that can be used to treat the condition. The development of possible bioactive ligands to combat Dengue fever before it becomes a pandemic is a global priority. Few studies on building three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (3D QSAR) models for anti-dengue agents have been reported. Thus, we aimed at building a statistically validated atom-based 3D-QSAR model using bioactive ligands reported to possess significant anti-dengue properties. In this study, the Schrodinger PhaseTM atom-based 3D QSAR model was developed and was validated using known anti-dengue properties as ligand data. This model was also tested to see if there was a link between structural characteristics and anti-dengue activity of a series of 3-acyl-indole derivatives. The established 3D QSAR model has strong predictive capacity and is statistically significant [Model: R2 Training Set = 0.93, Q2 (R2 Test Set) = 0.72]. In addition, the pharmacophore characteristics essential for the reported anti-dengue properties were explored using combined effects contour maps (coloured contour maps: blue: positive potential and red: negative potential) of the model. In the pathway of anti-dengue drug development, the model could be included as a virtual screening method to predict novel hits.
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Di Marco, Moreno, Ben Collen, Carlo Rondinini, and Georgina M. Mace. "Historical drivers of extinction risk: using past evidence to direct future monitoring." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 282, no. 1813 (August 22, 2015): 20150928. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.0928.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Global commitments to halt biodiversity decline mean that it is essential to monitor species' extinction risk. However, the work required to assess extinction risk is intensive. We demonstrate an alternative approach to monitoring extinction risk, based on the response of species to external conditions. Using retrospective International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments, we classify transitions in the extinction risk of 497 mammalian carnivores and ungulates between 1975 and 2013. Species that moved to lower Red List categories, or remained Least Concern, were classified as ‘lower risk'; species that stayed in a threatened category, or moved to a higher category of risk, were classified as ‘higher risk'. Twenty-four predictor variables were used to predict transitions, including intrinsic traits (species biology) and external conditions (human pressure, distribution state and conservation interventions). The model correctly classified up to 90% of all transitions and revealed complex interactions between variables, such as protected areas (PAs) versus human impact. The most important predictors were: past extinction risk, PA extent, geographical range size, body size, taxonomic family and human impact. Our results suggest that monitoring a targeted set of metrics would efficiently identify species facing a higher risk, and could guide the allocation of resources between monitoring species' extinction risk and monitoring external conditions.
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Sangthawan, Pornpen, Alan Frederick Geater, Surarit Naorungroj, Piyarat Nikomrat, Ozioma Forstinus Nwabor, and Sarunyou Chusri. "Characteristics, Influencing Factors, Predictive Scoring System, and Outcomes of the Patients with Nephrotoxicity Associated with Administration of Intravenous Colistin." Antibiotics 11, no. 1 (December 21, 2021): 2. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/antibiotics11010002.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Multidrug-resistant Gram-negative infection is a major global public health threat. Currently, colistin is considered the last-resort treatment despite its nephrotoxicity. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence, characteristics, and influencing factors and to develop a prediction model for colistin-associated nephrotoxicity. A retrospective study was conducted in the university hospital in the South of Thailand from December 2015 to June 2019. A total of 381 patients (median age (IQR) of 64 (51–62) years) were analyzed. Overall, 282 (74%) had nephrotoxicity according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) classification. In-hospital, 30-day mortality rates and cost of hospital admission were significantly higher among those with nephrotoxicity. Age > 60 years, comorbidities, serum albumin less than 3.5 g/dL, and concomitant nephrotoxic use were significantly associated with colistin-associated nephrotoxicity with adjusted OR (95% CI) 2.01 (1.23–2.45), 1.85 (1.18–3.6), 1.68 (1.09–2.99), and 1.77 (1.10–2.97), respectively. The prediction model for high-risk colistin-associated nephrotoxicity was identified with good overall performance (specificity of 79.6% (95% CI 70.3–87.1) and positive predictive value of 92.1% (95% CI 88.0–95.1)). In conclusion, the incidence of colistin-associated nephrotoxicity was high and incurred significant morbidity, mortality, and economic burden. Our predictive scoring system is relatively simple and useful for optimizing colistin therapy.
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Aguilera-Velázquez, José Raúl, Pilar Carbonero-Aguilar, Irene Martín-Carrasco, María Gracia Hinojosa, Isabel Moreno, and Juan Bautista. "Nutritional Quality of the Most Consumed Varieties of Raw and Cooked Rice in Spain Submitted to an In Vitro Digestion Model." Foods 10, no. 11 (October 26, 2021): 2584. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods10112584.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Rice is one of the most consumed staple foods around the world and its trade is highly globalized. Increased environmental pollution generates a large amount of waste that, in many cases, is discarded close to culture fields. Some species are able to bioaccumulate toxic substances, such as metals, that could be transferred to the food chain. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the content of metallic (Al, Cd, Pb, and Cr) and metalloid elements (As) in 14 of the most consumed varieties of rice in Spain and their effects on human health. The samples were cooked, and human digestion was simulated by using a standard in vitro digestion method. Metallic and metalloid element levels were analysed by Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES), previous called microwave digestion. Both the human health risk index, Hazard Quotient, and Lifetime Cancer Risk did not show toxic values in any case. Rice with a higher non-digestible fraction showed a higher liberation of proteins and a lower glycemic index. There were no significant differences in the concentrations of metallic and metalloid elements in cooked rice or in the digestible fraction in all varieties analysed. However, Al concentrations were higher than other metals in all varieties studied due to its global distribution. No relationship has been observed between the digestibility of rice and the bioaccessibility of each metallic and metalloid element. All of the studied rice varieties are healthy food products and its daily consumption is safe. The regular monitoring of metals and As in rice consumed in Spain may contribute to improvements in the human health risk evaluation.
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Morgado, Sergio, Erica Fonseca, and Ana Carolina Vicente. "Genomics of Klebsiella pneumoniae Species Complex Reveals the Circulation of High-Risk Multidrug-Resistant Pandemic Clones in Human, Animal, and Environmental Sources." Microorganisms 10, no. 11 (November 17, 2022): 2281. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms10112281.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The Klebsiella species present a remarkable genetic and ecological diversity, being ubiquitous in nature. In particular, the Klebsiella pneumoniae species complex (KpSC) has emerged as a major public health threat in the world, being an interesting model to assess the risk posed by strains recovered from animals and the environment to humans. We therefore performed a genomic surveillance analysis of the KpSC using every public genome in Brazil, aiming to show their local and global relationships, and the connectivity of antibiotic resistance and virulence considering human, animal, and environmental sources. The 390 genomes from distinct sources encompassed the K. pneumoniae, Klebsiella quasipneumoniae subsp. quasipneumoniae, Klebsiella quasipneumoniae subsp. similipneumoniae, Klebsiella variicola subsp. variicola, Klebsiella variicola subsp. tropica, and Klebsiella grimontii species and subspecies. K. pneumoniae harbored dozens of antibiotic resistance genes, while most of the genomes belong to the high-risk pandemic CC258 occurring in humans, animals, and the environment. In K. pneumoniae ST11, a high prevalence of the virulence determinants yersiniabactin, colibactin, and T6SS was revealed in association with multi-drug resistance (MDR), including carbapenem resistance. A diversity of resistance genes is carried by plasmids, some shared between strains from different STs, regions, and sources. Therefore, here were revealed some factors driving the success of KpSC as a pathogen.
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Oludoun, Olajumoke, Olukayode Adebimpe, James Ndako, Michael Adeniyi, Oluwakemi Abiodun, and Babatunde Gbadamosi. "The impact of testing and treatment on the dynamics of Hepatitis B virus." F1000Research 10 (September 17, 2021): 936. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.72865.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Despite the intervention of WHO on vaccination for reducing the spread of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV), there are records of the high prevalence of HBV in some regions. In this paper, a mathematical model was formulated to analyze the acquisition and transmission process of the virus with the view of identifying the possible way of reducing the menace and mitigating the risk of the virus. The models' positivity and boundedness were demonstrated using well-known theorems. Equating the differential equations to zero demonstrates the equilibria of the solutions i.e., the disease-free and endemic equilibrium. The next Generation Matrix method was used to compute the basic reproduction number for the models. Local and global stabilities of the models were shown via linearization and Lyapunov function methods respectively. The importance of testing and treatment on the dynamics of HBV were fully discussed in this paper. It was discovered that testing at the acute stage of the virus and chronic unaware state helps in better management of the virus.
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Kartashev, Vladimir, Alexandr Afonin, Javier González-Miguel, Rosa Sepúlveda, Luis Simón, Rodrigo Morchón, and Fernando Simón. "Regional Warming and Emerging Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Other Post-Soviet States from 1981 to 2011 and Projection by 2030." BioMed Research International 2014 (2014): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/858936.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
We analyze through a climatic model the influence of regional warming on the geographical spreading and potential risk of infection of human dirofilariosis in Russia, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states from 1981 to 2011 and estimate the situation by 2030. The model correctly predicts the spatiotemporal location of 97.10% of 2154 clinical cases reported in the area during the studied period, identified by a retrospective review of the literature. There exists also a significant correlation between annual predictedDirofilariagenerations and calculated morbidity. The model states the progressive increase of 14.8% in the potential transmission area, up to latitude 64°N, and 14.7% in population exposure. By 2030 an increase of 18.5% in transmission area and 10.8% in population exposure is expected. These findings strongly suggest the influence of global warming in both geographical spreading and increase in the number ofDirofilariagenerations. The results should alert about the epidemiological behavior of dirofilariosis and other mosquito-borne diseases in these and other countries with similar climatic characteristics.
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Li, Chao, Yuan Gao, Nan Chang, Delong Ma, Ruobing Zhou, Zhe Zhao, Jun Wang, Qinfeng Zhang, and Qiyong Liu. "Risk Assessment of Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes (Diptera: Culicidae) Invading China under Climate Change." Biology 10, no. 10 (October 3, 2021): 998. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology10100998.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Background: Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes are morphologically similar and are considered to be effective vectors of malaria transmission in northeastern India. Environmental factors such as temperature and rainfall have a significant impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of disease vectors driven by future climate change. Methods: In this study, we used the maximum entropy model to predict the potential global distribution of the two mosquito species in the near future and the trend of future distribution in China. Based on the contribution rate of environmental factors, we analyzed the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of the two mosquito species. We also constructed a disease vector risk assessment index system to calculate the comprehensive risk value of the invasive species. Results: Precipitation has a significant effect on the distribution of potentially suitable areas for Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes. The two mosquito species may spread in the suitable areas of China in the future. The results of the risk assessment index system showed that the two mosquito species belong to the moderate invasion risk level for China. Conclusions: China should improve the mosquito vector monitoring system, formulate scientific prevention and control strategies and strictly prevent foreign imports.
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Cai, Xintian, Qing Zhu, Yuanyuan Cao, Shasha Liu, Mengru Wang, Ting Wu, Jing Hong, Ayguzal Ahmat, Xiayire Aierken, and Nanfang Li. "A Prediction Model Based on Noninvasive Indicators to Predict the 8-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study." BioMed Research International 2021 (May 14, 2021): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5527460.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Background. The prevention of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and its associated complications has become a major priority of global public health. In addition, there is growing evidence that nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased risk of diabetes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram based on independent predictors to better assess the 8-year risk of T2D in Japanese patients with NAFLD. Methods. This is a historical cohort study from a collection of databases that included 2741 Japanese participants with NAFLD without T2D at baseline. All participants were randomized to a training cohort ( n = 2058 ) and a validation cohort ( n = 683 ). The data of the training cohort were analyzed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to screen the suitable and effective risk factors for Japanese patients with NAFLD. A cox regression analysis was applied to build a nomogram incorporating the selected features. The C-index, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration plot, decision curve analysis, and Kaplan-Meier analysis were used to validate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the model. The results were reevaluated by internal validation in the validation cohort. Results. We developed a simple nomogram that predicts the risk of T2D for Japanese patients with NAFLD by using the parameters of smoking status, waist circumference, hemoglobin A1c, and fasting blood glucose. For the prediction model, the C-index of training cohort and validation cohort was 0.839 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.804-0.874) and 0.822 (95% CI, 0.777-0.868), respectively. The pooled area under the ROC of 8-year T2D risk in the training cohort and validation cohort was 0.811 and 0.805, respectively. The calibration curve indicated a good agreement between the probability predicted by the nomogram and the actual probability. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful. Conclusions. We developed and validated a nomogram for the 8-year risk of incident T2D among Japanese patients with NAFLD. Our nomogram can effectively predict the 8-year incidence of T2D in Japanese patients with NAFLD and helps to identify people at high risk of T2D early, thus contributing to effective prevention programs for T2D.
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Doulberis, Michael, Noah Thierry Pierre, Giulia Manzini, Apostolis Papaefthymiou, Jannis Kountouras, Jolanta Klukowska-Rötzler, Stergios A. Polyzos, et al. "Helicobacter pylori-Related Metabolic Parameters and Premalignant Gastric Mucosa Histological Lesions in Swiss Bariatric Patients." Microorganisms 9, no. 7 (June 23, 2021): 1361. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms9071361.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Obesity, as a major risk factor of metabolic syndrome (MetS), represents a pandemic, especially in Western societies, and is considered a risk factor for malignancies. Helicobacter pylori (Hp), is a definite carcinogen with global distribution. We aimed to investigate, for the first time in Switzerland, the main gastric mucosa premalignant histological lesions of bariatric patients in correlation with MetS components and Hp Infection (Hp-I). By reviewing retrospectively 94304 patient cases, a total of 116 eligible patients having undergone bariatric surgery were identified. The mean patient age was 48.66 years. Hp(+) patients were 24% (28/116). Presence of gastric mucosa atrophy was documented in 8/28 Hp(+) patients (29%) and (2/88) Hp(−) ones (2%) (p = 0.006). Gastric mucosa intestinal metaplasia was observed in 14/28 (50%) Hp(+) patients versus 3/88 (3.4%) of Hp(-) group (p < 0.0001). Hp(+) patients exhibited statistically higher arterial hypertension (p = 0.033). The homeostatic model of assessment insulin resistance was also statistically significantly higher for the Hp(+) group (p < 0.001). In a multivariate analysis, including arterial hypertension, gastric mucosa atrophy, and intestinal metaplasia as variables, statistical significance remained only for intestinal metaplasia (p = 0.001). In conclusion, Hp-I is associated with premalignant gastric mucosa histologic lesions and MetS components, including arterial hypertension and IR. Further large-scale prospective studies are required to confirm these findings.
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BARBER, DAVID A., GAY Y. MILLER, and PAUL E. McNAMARA. "Models of Antimicrobial Resistance and Foodborne Illness: Examining Assumptions and Practical Applications." Journal of Food Protection 66, no. 4 (April 1, 2003): 700–709. http://dx.doi.org/10.4315/0362-028x-66.4.700.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Antimicrobial resistance is an issue of increasing global concern. Several investigators have suggested that antibiotic use in food-producing animals is a major contributor to the increasing incidence of antimicrobial-resistant organisms causing illness in humans (F. J. Angulo, K. R. Johnson, R. V. Tauxe, and M. L. Cohen, Microb. Drug Res. 6:77–83, 2000; P. D. Fey, T. J. Safranek, M. E. Rupp, E. F. Dunne, R. Efrain, P. C. Iwen, P. A. Bradford, F. J. Angulo, and S. H. Hinrichs, N. Engl. J. Med. 342:1242–1249, 2000; S. A. McEwen and P. J. Fedorka-Cray, Commun. Infect. Dis. 34(Suppl. 3):S93–S106, 2002; D. L. Smith, A. D. Harris, J. A. Johnson, E. K. Silbergeld, and J. G. Morris, Jr., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99:6434–6439, 2002; D. G. White, S. Zhao, R. Sudler, S. Ayers, S. Friedman, S. Chen, P. F. McDermott, D. D. Wagner, and J. Meng, N. Engl. J. Med. 345:1147–1154, 2001; W. Witte, Science 279:996, 1998). In this paper, we discuss this and other assumptions relevant to a quantitative risk assessment model for salmonellosis in humans. We also discuss other important aspects of modeling food safety and food-associated antimicrobial resistance risk to humans. We suggest that the role of food-producing animals in the origin and transmission of antimicrobial resistance and “foodborne” pathogens has been overestimated and overemphasized in the scientific literature; consequently, nonfoodborne transmission, including pet-associated human cases, has been underemphasized. Much evidence exists for the potential contribution to infectious disease that may be of human or pet origin (that may contact humans through food but not be of a food origin). Risk analyses that do not acknowledge the potential for these sources of cross-contamination will understate the contribution that origin has in the realm of foodborne and food-associated diseases (e.g., Salmonella) and the resulting uncertainty levels in the food system, thus leading to biased inferences. We emphasize the importance of evaluating both the foodborne and nonfoodborne transmission risk for salmonellosis and outline the basics of an analytical modeling approach in food safety with examples to illustrate strengths and limitations in the modeling. Examples illustrate, on a simplistic level, how varying assumptions and other inputs can influence the output of food-associated quantitative risk models.
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Alvi, Mughees Aizaz, Li Li, Muhammad Saqib, John Asekhaen Ohiolei, Muhammad Waqar Younas, Muhammad Haleem Tayyab, Ali Hassan, et al. "Serologic evidence of Echinococcus granulosus in slaughterhouses in Pakistan: global alarm for butchers in developing countries." Journal of Infection in Developing Countries 15, no. 06 (June 30, 2021): 861–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.3855/jidc.14029.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Introduction: Cystic echinococcosis, caused by Echinococcus granulosus, is a neglected zoonosis that affects humans and livestock. This sero-survey was designed for the first time in Pakistan to assess the exposure of butchers to E. granulosus as there was no previous report in the country for this occupational group.
Methodology: Blood samples were collected from registered butchers (n = 364) in five different slaughterhouses in Faisalabad and Bahawalnagar Districts. Sera were tested for anti-Echinococcus granulosus IgG with a commercially available ELISA kit (specificity, 100%; sensitivity, 97%).
Results: Overall, seroprevalence was 9.61% (35/364). Butchers >30 years of age (10.34%), those involved in small ruminants butchery (11.70%), >10 years’ experience (10.04%), formal education level up to middle standard (10.28%), contact with dogs (12.71%), improper/unhygienic disposal of dog feces (11.87%), and those unaware of the consequences of eating with unwashed hands (13.80%) were more seropositive with significant statistical differences (p < 0.05). Variables like previous cyst encounter, no knowledge of zoonoses and/or cystic echinococcosis, living in rural areas and the presence of stray/feral dogs in surroundings did not show any significant association (p > 0.05) with seroprevalence in butchers. The binary logistic regression model also showed a statistically significant relationship (p < 0.05) for all risk factors found statistically significant (p < 0.05) in the univariate analysis.
Conclusions: This study shows high prevalence of cystic echinococcosis among butchers in Pakistan and underscores the need for educating native slaughterhouse personnel on cystic echinococcosis. It also serves as a global warning, especially in developing countries.
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Skryabin, K. G., and A. M. Kamionskaya. "Genetic Technologies in Russian Agriculture: Regulatory Issues and Public Opinion." Biotekhnologiya 37, no. 1 (2021): 5–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.21519/0234-2758-2021-37-1-5-20.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This study analyzes the current regulatory system for genetic engineering in Russia in terms of expected amendments related to genome editing technology, given that its products - genome-edited crops - have already appeared on the international market. A list of corresponding concepts that require legal rethinking and definition has been compiled. Changes in the model of state regulation of genetic technologies in Russia are proposed: the transition from a process-oriented regulation system to a risk-based system. To assess the risk of public rejection of the products of genetic technology and new biotechnologies, 931 participants of the opinion poll have been selected who underwent an online sociological survey using purposive sample techniques. The obtained results revealed the innovation potential of the Russian society and experts in the novel genetic and digital technologies in agriculture, their attitude to the threat of global hunger and the application of biodegradable materials and biofuels in relation to the circular economy. genetic technologies, GMOs, regulations, opinion poll, Russia The authors thank the staff of Technological platform Biotech2030, Moscow, Russia This paper is part a study that was partially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) (project no. 18-29-14067/18).
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Iddrisu, Abdul-Karim, Kassim Tawiah, Francis Kwame Bukari, and Williams Kumi. "Frequentist and Bayesian Regression Approaches for Determining Risk Factors of Child Mortality in Ghana." BioMed Research International 2020 (October 6, 2020): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8168479.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Background. Child mortality is a global health problem. The United Nations’ 2018 report on levels and trends on child mortality indicated that under-five mortality is one of the major public health problems in Ghana with a rate of 60 deaths per 1000 live births. To further mitigate this problem, it is important to identify the drivers of under-five mortality in order to achieve the United Nations SDG Goal 3 target 2. Methods. In this study, we investigated the effects of some selected risk factors on child mortality using data from the 2014 Ghana Demographic Health Survey. We modelled the relationship between child mortality and the risk factors using a logistic regression model under the frequentist and Bayesian frameworks. We used the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm to simulate parameter estimates from the posterior distributions, and statistical analyses were carried out using STATA version 14.1. Results. Results from the frequentist framework are in line with those from the Bayesian framework. The results showed an increased risk of death among children who were delivered through caesarean and reduced relative odds of death among children whose sizes are average or large at birth and whose mothers have formal education. Conclusions. There is a need for improved health facilities for better health-care for mothers and children. Education should, among other things, emphasise on the need for mothers to go for regular check-ups during antinatal and postnatal periods for improved mother and child health.
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Mello, Rebecca M., Marie Pariollaud, and Katja A. Lamia. "Circadian disruption does not alter tumorigenesis in a mouse model of lymphoma." F1000Research 12 (January 12, 2023): 49. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.125272.1.
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Background: Disruption of natural diurnal light cycles, such as that experienced by shift workers, is linked to enhanced cancer incidence. Several mouse models of cancer have been shown to develop more severe disease when exposed to irregular light/dark cycles, further supporting the connection between circadian disruption and increased cancer risk. Cryptochrome 2 (CRY2), a repressive component of the molecular circadian clock, facilitates the turnover of the oncoprotein c-MYC, one mechanism that may link the molecular clock to tumorigenesis. In Eμ-MYC mice, which express transgenic c-MYC in B cells and develop aggressive lymphomas and leukemia, global Cry2 deletion reduces overall survival and enhances tumor formation. Moreover, lighting conditions that mimic the disruption experienced by shift workers dampens Cry2 transcripts in peripheral tissues of C57BL/6J mice. Thus, we hypothesized that exposure to disruptive lighting conditions would enhance tumor burden in Eμ-MYC mice. Methods: We housed Eμ-MYC mice in light-tight boxes set to either the control (continuous cycles of 12-hours of the light followed by 12-hours of dark, LD12:12) or chronic jetlag (eight-hour light phase advances every two to three days, CJL) lighting conditions and assessed the impact of disrupted light cycles on overall survival and tumor formation in Eμ-MYC mice. Results: Environmental disruption of circadian rhythms did not alter tumor location, tumor growth, or overall survival in female or male Eμ-MYC mice. Conclusions: Our findings support emerging evidence that suggests the impact of circadian disruption on tumorigenesis is dependent on the origin of malignancies.
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Meiring, James E., Alberto Giubilini, Julian Savulescu, Virginia E. Pitzer, and Andrew J. Pollard. "Generating the Evidence for Typhoid Vaccine Introduction: Considerations for Global Disease Burden Estimates and Vaccine Testing Through Human Challenge." Clinical Infectious Diseases 69, Supplement_5 (October 15, 2019): S402—S407. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz630.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Typhoid fever has had a major impact on human populations, with the causative pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi implicated in many outbreaks through history. The current burden of disease is estimated at 11–18 million infections annually, with the majority of infections located in Africa and South Asia. Data that have been used to estimate burden are limited to a small number of blood-culture surveillance studies, largely from densely populated urban centers. Extrapolating these data to estimate disease burden within and across countries highlights the lack of precision in global figures. A number of approaches have been developed, characterizing different geographical areas by water-based risk factors for typhoid infection or broader measures of health and development to more accurately extrapolate incidence. Recognition of the substantial disease burden is essential for policy-makers considering vaccine introduction. Typhoid vaccines have been in development for >100 years. The Vi polysaccharide (ViPS) and Ty21a vaccines have had a World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for programmatic use in countries with high burden for 10 years, with 1 ViPS vaccine also having WHO prequalification. Despite this, uptake and introduction of these vaccines has been minimal. The development of a controlled human infection model (CHIM) enabled the accelerated testing of the newly WHO-prequalified ViPS–tetanus toxoid protein conjugate vaccine, providing efficacy estimates for the vaccine, prior to larger field trials. There is an urgency to the global control of enteric fever due to the escalating problem of antimicrobial resistance. With more accurate burden of disease estimates and a vaccine showing efficacy in CHIM, that control is now a possibility.
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Yu, Jing, Yiling Hang, Wenni Sun, Guangqiang Wang, Zhiqiang Xiong, Lianzhong Ai, and Yongjun Xia. "Anti-Osteoporotic Effect of Lactobacillus brevis AR281 in an Ovariectomized Mouse Model Mediated by Inhibition of Osteoclast Differentiation." Biology 11, no. 3 (February 24, 2022): 359. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology11030359.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Osteoporosis is a global disease characterized by weakened bone microarchitecture, leading to osteoporotic fractures. Estrogen replacement therapy is the traditional treatment for osteoporosis but carries with it an increased risk of cardiac events. In search of a safe and effective treatment, we used Lactobacillus brevis AR281, which has anti-inflammatory properties, to conduct a 7-week experiment, investigating its inhibitory effects on osteoporosis in an ovariectomized (ovx) mouse model. The results demonstrated that AR281 significantly improved bone microarchitecture and biomechanical strength in ovx mice by attenuating bone resorption. AR281 significantly decreased the critical osteoclast activator, the ratio of the receptor activator for nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) ligand (RANKL) to osteoprotegerin, and pro-inflammatory osteoclastogenic mediators, such as IL-1, IL-6, and IL-17, which can increase the RANKL expression. Moreover, AR281 modulated intestinal microbiota in ovx mice increased the abundance of Akkermansia, which is responsible for the improvement of gut epithelial barrier integrity. In an in vitro trial, AR281 suppressed the number of osteoclasts differentiated from the osteoclast precursor RAW264.7 cells caused by RANKL through the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) receptor-associated factor 6 (TRAF6)/NF-κB/nuclear factor of activated T cells c1 (NFATc1) pathway. Therefore, AR281 may be a natural alternative for combating osteoporosis.
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Nevola, Riccardo, Valerio Rosato, Vincenza Conturso, Pasquale Perillo, Teresa Le Pera, Ferdinando Del Vecchio, Davide Mastrocinque, et al. "Can Telemedicine Optimize the HCV Care Cascade in People Who Use Drugs? Features of an Innovative Decentralization Model and Comparison with Other Micro-Elimination Strategies." Biology 11, no. 6 (May 24, 2022): 805. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology11060805.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
People who use drugs (PWUDs) are a crucial population in the global fight against viral hepatitis. The difficulties in linkage to care, the low adherence to therapy, the frequent loss to follow-up and the high risk of re-infection make the eradication process of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) really hard in this viral reservoir. Several management and treatment models have been tested with the aim of optimizing the HCV care cascade in PWUDs. Models of decentralization of the care process and integration of services seem to provide the highest success rates. Giving this, telemedicine could favor the decentralization of diagnostic-therapeutic management, key for the implementation of linkage to care, reduction of waiting times, optimization of adherence and results and reduction of the costs. The purpose of this literature review is to examine the role and possible impact of telemedicine in optimizing the HCV care cascade, comparing the different care models that have shown to improve the linkage to care and therapeutic adherence in this special population.
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PEARSON, ANDREW J., SALLY GAW, NIKOLAUS HERMANSPAHN, and CHRIS N. GLOVER. "Deterministic and Semiprobabilistic Modeling of the Committed Dose from Radionuclides and the Chemical Burden from Uranium in the New Zealand Diet." Journal of Food Protection 81, no. 9 (July 27, 2018): 1400–1410. http://dx.doi.org/10.4315/0362-028x.jfp-18-053.
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ABSTRACT To support New Zealand's food safety monitoring, estimates of the current population exposure to ionizing radiation through diet are needed. To calculate the committed dose from radionuclide activities in the food chain, dietary modeling was undertaken for different age and gender groupings of the New Zealand population. Based on a published survey of radionuclide activity concentrations in the New Zealand diet, deterministic and semiprobabilistic models were constructed to derive estimates of the effective dose via the diet. Deterministic estimated annual doses across the different age and gender groupings ranged from a minimum of 48 to 66 μSv/year for teenage girls to a maximum of 126 to 152 μSv/year for adult males. Polonium-210 was the main contributor to ingested dose, with anthropogenic radionuclides contributing very little. For adults, seafood represented the most important source of exposure, with the contribution from this source decreasing for younger age groups. Results of the semiprobabilistic model identified a range of possible ingested doses, with 2.5 to 97.5th percentile ranges of 0.01 to 1.44 μSv/day for adults and 0.02 to 1.84 μSv/day for children. Estimated doses to the New Zealand population show similarities to those of other countries and fall within the expected global range. The current level of exposure to ionizing radiation in the diet does not represent an elevated health risk.
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Jiao, Ao, Qingpeng Liu, Feng Li, Rui Guo, Bowen Wang, Xianliang Lu, Ning Sun, Chengshuo Zhang, Xiaohang Li, and Jialin Zhang. "Intraoperative Hepatic Blood Inflow Can Predict Early Acute Kidney Injury following DCD Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Observational Study." BioMed Research International 2019 (August 6, 2019): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4572130.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Purpose. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major and severe complication following donation-after-circulatory-death (DCD) liver transplantation (LT) and is associated with increased postoperative morbidity and mortality. However, the risk factors and the prognosis factors of AKI still need to be further explored, and the relativity of intraoperative hepatic blood inflow (HBI) and AKI following LT has not been discussed yet. The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between HBI and AKI and to construct a prediction model of early acute kidney injury (EAKI) following DCD LT with the combination of HBI and other clinical parameters. Methods. Clinical data of 132 patients who underwent DCD liver transplantation at the first hospital of China Medical University from April 2005 to March 2017 were analyzed. Data of 105 patients (the first ten years of patients) were used to develop the prediction model. Then we assessed the clinical usefulness of the prediction models in the validation cohort (27 patients). EAKI according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria based on serum creatinine increase during 7-day of postoperative follow-up. Results. After Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression and simplification, a simplified prediction model consisting of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score (p=0.033), anhepatic phase (p=0.014), packed red blood cell (pRBC) transfusion (p=0.027), and the HBI indexed by height (HBI/h) (p=0.002) was established. The C-indexes of the model in the development and validation cohort were 0.823 [95% CI, 0.738-0.908] and 0.921 [95% CI, 0.816-1.000], respectively. Conclusions. In this study, we demonstrated the utility of HBI/h as a predictor for EAKI following DCD LT, as well as the clinical usefulness of the prediction model through the combination of the CTP score, anhepatic phase, pRBC transfusion and HBI/h.
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Andrey, Diego O., Priscila Pereira Dantas, Willames B. S. Martins, Fabíola Marques De Carvalho, Luiz Gonzaga Paula Almeida, Kirsty Sands, Edward Portal, et al. "An Emerging Clone, Klebsiellapneumoniae Carbapenemase 2–Producing K. pneumoniae Sequence Type 16, Associated With High Mortality Rates in a CC258-Endemic Setting." Clinical Infectious Diseases 71, no. 7 (November 12, 2019): e141-e150. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz1095.
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Abstract Background Carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae has become a global priority, not least in low- and middle-income countries. Here, we report the emergence and clinical impact of a novel Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase–producing K. pneumoniae (KPC-KP) sequence type (ST) 16 clone in a clonal complex (CC) 258–endemic setting. Methods In a teaching Brazilian hospital, a retrospective cohort of adult KPC-KP bloodstream infection (BSI) cases (January 2014 to December 2016) was established to study the molecular epidemiology and its impact on outcome (30-day all-cause mortality). KPC-KP isolates underwent multilocus sequence typing. Survival analysis between ST/CC groups and risk factors for fatal outcome (logistic regression) were evaluated. Representative isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing and had their virulence tested in a Galleria larvae model. Results One hundred sixty-five unique KPC-KP BSI cases were identified. CC258 was predominant (66%), followed by ST16 (12%). The overall 30-day mortality rate was 60%; in contrast, 95% of ST16 cases were fatal. Patients’ severity scores were high and baseline clinical variables were not statistically different across STs. In multivariate analysis, ST16 (odds ratio [OR], 21.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3–202.8; P = .008) and septic shock (OR, 11.9; 95% CI, 4.2–34.1; P < .001) were independent risk factors for fatal outcome. The ST16 clone carried up to 14 resistance genes, including blaKPC-2 in an IncFIBpQIL plasmid, KL51 capsule, and yersiniabactin virulence determinants. The ST16 clone was highly pathogenic in the larvae model. Conclusions Mortality rates were high in this KPC-KP BSI cohort, where CC258 is endemic. An emerging ST16 clone was associated with high mortality. Our results suggest that even in endemic settings, highly virulent clones can rapidly emerge demanding constant monitoring.
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Buonfrate, Dora, Rosalia Marrone, Ronaldo Silva, Concetta Mirisola, Andrea Ragusa, Manuela Mistretta, Francesca Perandin, and Zeno Bisoffi. "Prevalence of Strongyloidiasis in a Cohort of Migrants in Italy and Accuracy of a Novel ELISA Assay for S. stercoralis Infection, a Cross-Sectional Study." Microorganisms 9, no. 2 (February 15, 2021): 401. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms9020401.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Strongyloides stercoralis infection is a life-threatening neglected tropical disease. Diagnostic issues have caused an underestimation of its global burden. The choice of appropriate diagnostic tests for the screening of populations at risk of the infection, such as migrants from endemic countries, is of paramount importance. From November 2017 to July 2018, all migrants presenting to the National Institute for Health Migration and Poverty (INMP) in Rome, Italy were offered screening tests for S. stercoralis infection. The study objective was to estimate the prevalence of strongyloidiasis in the study population and the accuracy of a novel ELISA assay. The following tests were carried out at the IRCCS Sacro Cuore Don Calabria hospital in Negrar, Verona: stool microscopy, real-time PCR for S. stercoralis, in-house immunofluorescence test (IFAT), a commercial ELISA assay (Bordier ELISA), and a novel ELISA assay (Euroimmun ELISA). A latent class analysis (LCA) model set up with test results, clinical variables, and eosinophilia indicated a prevalence around 7.5%, in line with previous findings. The sensitivity and the specificity of Euroimmun ELISA were 90.6% (95% CI 80.5–100) and 87.7% (95CI 84.5–91.0); these results indicate that the novel ELISA assay would be suitable for screening of migrants from endemic countries.
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Krasevec, Julia, Hannah Blencowe, Christopher Coffey, Yemisrach B. Okwaraji, Diana Estevez, Gretchen A. Stevens, Eric O. Ohuma, et al. "Study protocol for UNICEF and WHO estimates of global, regional, and national low birthweight prevalence for 2000 to 2020." Gates Open Research 6 (July 19, 2022): 80. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/gatesopenres.13666.1.
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Background Reducing low birthweight (LBW, weight at birth less than 2,500g) prevalence by at least 30% between 2012 and 2025 is a target endorsed by the World Health Assembly that can contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) by 2030. The 2019 LBW estimates indicated a global prevalence of 14.6% (20.5 million newborns) in 2015. We aim to develop updated LBW estimates at global, regional, and national levels for up to 202 countries for the period of 2000 to 2020. Methods Two types of sources for LBW data will be sought: national administrative data and population-based surveys. Administrative data will be searched for countries with a facility birth rate ≥80% and included when birthweight data account for ≥80% of UN estimated live births for that country and year. Surveys with birthweight data published since release of the 2019 edition of the LBW estimates will be adjusted using the standard methodology applied for the previous estimates. Risk of bias assessments will be undertaken. Covariates will be selected based on a conceptual framework of plausible associations with LBW, covariate time-series data quality, collinearity between covariates and correlations with LBW. National LBW prevalence will be estimated using a Bayesian multilevel-mixed regression model, then aggregated to derive regional and global estimates through population-weighted averages. Conclusion Whilst availability of LBW data has increased, especially with more facility births, gaps remain in the quantity and quality of data, particularly in low-and middle-income countries. Challenges include high percentages of missing data, lack of adherence to reporting standards, inaccurate measurement, and data heaping. Updated LBW estimates are important to highlight the global burden of LBW, track progress towards nutrition targets, and inform investments in programmes. Reliable, nationally representative data are key, alongside investments to improve the measurement and recording of an accurate birthweight for every baby.
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Gumel, Abba B., Miriam Nuño, and Gerardo Chowell. "Mathematical Assessment of Canada’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan." Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology 19, no. 2 (2008): 185–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2008/538975.
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OBJECTIVE: The presence of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus in wild bird populations in several regions of the world, together with recurrent cases of H5N1 influenza arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, have highlighted the urgent need for prepared-ness and coordinated global strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the Canadian pandemic influenza preparedness plan.PATIENTS AND METHODS: A mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of influenza was used to keep track of the population according to risk of infection (low or high) and infection status (susceptible, exposed or infectious). The model was parametrized using available Canadian demographic data. The model was then used to evaluate the key components outlined in the Canadian plan.RESULTS: The results indicated that the number of cases, mortalities and hospitalizations estimated in the Canadian plan may have been underestimated; the use of antivirals, administered therapeutically, prophylactically or both, is the most effective single intervention followed by the use of a vaccine and basic public health measures; and the combined use of pharmaceutical interventions (antivirals and vaccine) can dramatically minimize the burden of the pending influenza pandemic in Canada. Based on increasing concerns of Oseltamivir resistance (wide-scale implementation), coupled with the expected unavailability of a suitable vaccine during the early stages of a pandemic, the present study evaluated the potential impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) which were not emphasized in the current Canadian plan. To this end, the findings suggest that the use of NPIs can drastically reduce the burden of a pandemic in Canada.CONCLUSIONS: A deterministic model was designed and used to assess Canada’s pandemic preparedness plan. The study showed that the estimates of pandemic influenza burden given in the Canada pandemic preparedness plan may be an underestimate, and that Canada needs to adopt NPIs to complement its preparedness plan.
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Lima, Deanna dos Santos, Wandklebson Silva da Paz, Álvaro Francisco Lopes Lopes de Sousa, Denise de Andrade, Beatriz Juliana Conacci, Flávia Silva Damasceno, and Márcio Bezerra-Santos. "Space–Time Clustering and Socioeconomic Factors Associated with Mortality from Diarrhea in Alagoas, Northeastern Brazil: A 20-Year Population-Based Study." Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 7, no. 10 (October 18, 2022): 312. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7100312.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Acute diarrhea is the second leading cause of death among children in developing countries and is strongly related with the socioeconomic conditions of the population. In Brazil, data show a drop in the diarrhea mortality rate. Nevertheless, the northeastern region still has the most deaths. Considering this, we analyze high-risk areas for diarrhea- and gastroenteritis-related deaths, and their association with social determinants of health (SDH) in the state with one of the worst human development indicators in Brazil (Alagoas) between 2000 and 2019. We applied temporal, spatial, and space–time risk modelling. We used a log-linear regression model to assess temporal trends and the local empirical Bayesian estimator, the global and local Moran indices for spatial analysis. Spearman’s correlation was used to correlate mortality rates with SDH. A total of 3472 diarrhea-related deaths were reported during this period in Alagoas. We observed a decreasing time trend of deaths in the state (9.41/100,000 in 2000 to 2.21 in 2019; APC = −6.7; p-value < 0.001), especially in children under one year of age. However, there was stability among adults and the elderly. We identified two high-risk spatiotemporal clusters of mortality in inland municipalities. Lastly, mortality rates correlated significantly with 90% of SDH. Taken together, these findings indicate that diarrhea diseases remain a serious public health concern in Alagoas, mainly in the poorest and inland municipalities. Thereby, it is urgently necessary to invest in measures to control and prevent cases, and improve the living conditions of the poorest populations and those with the highest social vulnerability index.
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Tikhaze, A. K., G. G. Konovalova, M. K. Osyaeva, M. D. Smirnova, T. V. Martynyuk, and V. Z. Lankin. "Regulation of free radical processes in healthy volunteers during experimental hyperthermia and in patients with coronary artery disease during summer heat waves." Acta Biomedica Scientifica 6, no. 5 (November 23, 2021): 19–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.29413/abs.2021-6.5.3.
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Background. In view of the worsening forecast for global temperature rise worldwide, it seems relevant to study the effects of abnormal heat waves on systemic regulatory processes in people with chronic diseases, in particular coronary artery disease (CAD).Aims. This study aimed to investigate the effect of hyperthermia on oxidative stress parameters in patients with various severity of CAD and in healthy subjects.Materials and methods. We studied the level of malonic dialdehyde (MDA) and the activity of Cu,Zn-containing superoxide dismutase (Cu,Zn-SOD) in healthy subjects under conditions of 30-day long simulated hyperthermia and in patients with different severity of CAD after the summer heat wavesResults. We revealed signs of oxidative stress in healthy volunteers during model hyperthermia that manifested as an increase in content of MDA in blood plasma. At the same time we observed increasing activity of Cu,Zn-SOD in erythrocytes that utilizes reactive oxygen species. The increase of Cu,Zn-SOD activity started with a certain latency what also can be explained by de novo enzyme biosynthesis induction. We also studied oxidative stress parameters in patients at high and moderate cardiovascular risk according to the SCORE risk chart with uncomplicated CAD course and in patients with complicated CAD with severe coronary damage according to angiography during the summer heat waves. We observed accumulation of MDA in blood plasma and increasing activity of erythrocyte Cu,Zn-SOD in patients with uncomplicated CAD. At the same time we noted that accumulation of MDA in blood plasma was not followed by any increase in activity of red blood cell Cu,Zn-SOD in patients with severe complicated CAD. This fact indicates dysregulation of free radical processes in patients with severe course of CAD during the heat waves.Conclusions. The dysregulation of free-radical processes in patients with a severe clinical course of CAD has been revealed.