Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Forest energy chain"

One of the key elements of future energy generation is the switch to non-depletable resources, widely known as renewable energy sources (RES). There are many types of RES, however, but the focus of this article is on biomass products, which mainly consists of forest production (wood) and energy crops. One of the main problems of using biomass products for renewable energy production is the fact that several constraints should be imposed for both the management of forests and land. There are different aspects of optimal management of biomass products that guarantees the sustainability of the ecological systems. In this article, an analysis of the management for forest and agricultural products from energy crops is presented, demonstrating latest trends in biomass products as primal resource for renewable energy. Finally, a conceptual model for a biomass supply chain is proposed and discussed.

As a part of the renewable energy cycle, forest biomass resources are considered to be important renewable materials and energy sources in many countries. It is evident from international and local research into forest biomass utilization that several challenges must be addressed to ensure logging waste can be transformed into material of commercial value. Several logistical and supply chain challenges have already been identified, including uncertainty about the nature, amount, and quality of forest residues. In this context, this paper presents a summary review of estimation methods and techniques for managing forest and woody residue along the timber supply chain. The review examines both the opportunities and the challenges evident in the international forest residue estimation methods within each supply chain for primary and secondary forest resources. The review also discusses techniques for supply chain and management planning and highlights the limitations of existing information and communication technology (ICT) implemented for forest biomass research.

<p><em>Aim of study</em>: This work aims to provide an overview of Model Predictive Controllers (MPC) applications in supply chains, to describe the forest-based supply chain and to analyse the potential use and benefits of MPC in a case study concerning a biomass supply chain.</p><p><em>Area of study</em>: The proposed methods are being applied to a company located in Finland.</p><p><em>Material and methods</em>: Supply chains are complex systems where actions and partners’ coordination influence the whole system performance. The increase of competitiveness and need of quick responses to the costumers implies the use of efficient management techniques. The control theory, particularly MPC, has been successfully used as a supply chain management tool. MPC is able to deal with dynamic interactions between the partners and to globally optimize the supply chain performance in the presence of disturbances. However, as far as is authors’ knowledge, there are no applications of this methodology in the forest-based supply chains. This work proposes a control architecture to improve the performance of the forest supply chain. The controller is based on prediction models which are able to simulate the system and deal with disturbances.</p><p><em>Main results</em>: The preliminary results enable to evaluate the impacts of disturbances in the supply chain. Thus, it is possible to react beforehand, controlling the schedules and tasks’ allocation, or alert the planning level in order to generate a new plan.</p><p><em>Research highlights</em>: Overview of MPC applications in supply chains; forest-based supply chain description; case study presentation: wood biomass supply chain for energy production; MPC architecture proposal to decrease the operation times.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: biomass; forest; Model Predictive Control; planning; supply chain.</p>

We consider a wood forest product supply chain consisting of a forestry company and a wood forest products manufacturer, where the forestry company produces timber and forestry carbon sinks, and the manufacturer consumes timber and carbon emission rights. A Stackelberg model is adopted to investigate the forest scale and carbon emission reduction decisions of the supply chain. We design and analyze the carbon emission reduction cost-sharing (ERCS) mechanism and carbon sink cost-sharing (SCS) mechanism, respectively. The result shows that both contracts can help the wood forest product supply chain to achieve higher profits. The ERCS mechanism may encourage the manufacturer to increase emission reduction level and the forestry company to expand the forest scale. The SCS mechanism is beneficial to the expansion of carbon sink forests; however, it may lead to the manufacturer decreasing investment in carbon emission reduction measures.

Impacts of harvest reductions on the value-added wood chain – the case of Austria Wooden biomass availability and the possibility of a scarcity due to a potential harvest reduction are of crucial importance to the Austrian forest-based sector but also relevant for decision makers in environmental policy. The simulation model of the Austrian forest-based sector (model: “Forst- und Holzwirtschaft”, FOHOW) was used to simulate two independent scenarios with harvest reduction in forests available for wood supply (FAWS). In one scenario the reductions are implemented on FAWS of “average” profitability, in the other scenario the reductions take place on FAWS with “poor” profitability. On the one hand, the aim of the study was the analysis of the impacts of reduced wood supply on the value-added wood chain until 2025, on the other hand the impact intensities of the two scenarios have been compared. In general, a harvest reduction resulting in less wood supply has a negative impact on the Austrian forest-based sector. While forestry and the sawmill industry suffer more from a harvest reduction in FAWS with average profitability (because of the lower supply of coniferous roundwood), a harvest reduction in FAWS with lower profitability would affect the panel and paper industry as well as the wood-based energy sector more negatively; reduced harvests in these forest areas would mainly reduce the supply of non-coniferous wood. This, in turn would fuel the competition between the use of wood for materials vs. energy and push pulp- and fuelwood prices up.

The circular bioeconomy is aimed at achieving sustainable development through high efficiency utilization and resource recycling, and through combining environmental, economic and social objectives. Although the implementation of circular bioeconomy principles is based on a bottom-up approach, the participatory process has often been neglected. To overcome this problem, the present study investigated a case-study with a three-step participatory process. The process aimed to evaluate a forest-wood supply chain with consideration of the circular bioeconomy principles. A set of indicators was identified and assessed by a pool of experts. Then the members of a forest-wood supply chain were consulted to implement the identified actions. Finally, a focus group was organized with key stakeholders to discuss critical issues and strategies for enhancing the forest-wood supply chain locally. The results show that the proposed set of indicators is a useful tool to evaluate the performance of the forest-wood supply chain considering the circular bioeconomy principles. The results of the participatory process and related indicators’ assessment identified the main weaknesses of the forest-wood supply chain. The main strategies to develop the local forest-wood supply chain toward the circular bioeconomy principles were also defined with a participatory approach.

The sustainable management of coppice forests and the valorization of forest residues represent key activities for the development of wood for the energy supply chain. The present study focused on the quantification and the physical/energetic characterization of oak residues (branches and tops) obtained from a coppice stand in central Italy. The study also evaluated the performance of the technologies used for the harvest and chipping operation. The wood residues obtained were mainly tree branches and tops and accounted for 19.8% of the total biomass extracted from the forest. Taking into account the standards of wood chips for energy use, the material produced was included in the quality class B. Summarizing, the results obtained in this work indicated that opportune forest operations can provide a significant amount of wood residues (mainly branches and tops) from oak coppices in central Italy and that the derived material can reach medium commercial features, being exploitable in different bioenergy production scenarios.

Forest degradation and forest loss threaten the survival of many species and reduce the ability of forests to provide vital services. Clearing for agriculture in Angola is an important driver of forest degradation and deforestation. Charcoal production for urban consumption as a driver of forest degradation has had alarming impacts on natural forests, as well as on the social and economic livelihood of the rural population. The charcoal impact on forest cover change is in the same order of magnitude as deforestation caused by agricultural expansion. However, there is a need to monitor the linkage between charcoal production and forest degradation. The aim of this paper is to investigate the sequence of the charcoal value chain as a systematic key to identify policies to reduce forest degradation in the province of Bié. It is a detailed study of the charcoal value chain that does not stop on the production and the consumption side. The primary data of this study came from 330 respondents obtained through different methods (semi-structured questionnaire survey and market observation conducted in June to September 2013–2014). A logistic regression (logit) model in IBM SPSS Statistics 24 (IBM Corp, Armonk, NY, USA) was used to analyze the factors influencing the decision of the households to use charcoal for domestic purposes. The finding indicates that 21 to 27 thousand hectares were degraded due to charcoal production. By describing the chain of charcoal, it was possible to access the driving factors for charcoal production and to obtain the first-time overview flow of charcoal from producers to consumers in Bié province. The demand for charcoal in this province is more likely to remain strong if government policies do not aim to employ alternative sources of domestic energy.

The demand for forest biomass as raw material for a wide range of products in the developing bioeconomy is expected to increase. Along with a constant pressure on forestry to increase its productivity, this development has led to the search for new procurement methods and new assortments. The present study assessed innovative supply chain practices, with a particular focus on the integrated supply of stemwood and residual tree parts. The assortments considered included tree sections, long tops, saw logs with stump cores and small whole trees from thinnings. The assessment included geographically explicit modelling of the supply chain operations and estimation of supply cost and energy use for three industrial locations in Northern Sweden. The innovative supply chains were compared to conventional, separate, harvest of stemwood and logging residues. We conclude that integrated harvest of tops and branches with stemwood assortments, as well as whole-tree harvest in early thinnings, has a significant potential to reduce the supply cost for the non-stemwood assortments. Stump wood generally remains the most expensive assortment. The energy use analysis confirms earlier research showing that the energy input is relatively small compared to the energy content of the harvested feedstock.ABBREVIATIONSBWT, bundled whole trees; CTL, cut-to-length; ET, energy thinning; FF, final felling; FT, first thinning; LR, logging residues; LT long tops; ORN, Örnsköldsvik; PCT, pre-commercial thinning; PL, pulpwood; RS, roughly delimbed tree sections; SEK, Swedish currency; SFA, Swedish Forest Agency; SL, sawlogs; SNFI, Swedish National Forest Inventory; SP, stumps; SPC stump core; ST, second thinning; STO, Storuman; UME Umeå; WT, whole small trees;

Recent emphasis on producing energy from woody biomass has raised questions about the impact of a vibrant wood-to-energy market on the southern wood supply chain, which consists of forest landowners, forest industry mills, and harvesting contractors. This study utilized two surveys of southern wood supply chain participants and a designed operational study of an energywood harvest to investigate the impact of an expanded wood-to-energy market on each member of the southern wood supply chain. First, a survey of consulting foresters was conducted to examine how harvest tract size, forest ownership, and forest industry structure have changed within the U.S. South and how foresters expect the wood-to-energy market to impact the wood supply chain in the future. Second, this study employed a mail survey of forest landowners, forest industry mills, and wood-to-energy facilities from the thirteen southern states in order to investigate expected competition for resources, wood supply chain profitability, and landowner willingness to sell timber to energy facilities. Third, this study conducted a designed operational study on a southern pine clearcut in the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, with three replications of three harvest prescriptions to measure harvesting productivity and costs when harvesting woody biomass for energy. The three treatments were: a Conventional roundwood only harvest (control), an Integrated harvest in which roundwood was delivered to traditional mills and residuals were chipped for energy, and a Chip harvest in which all stems were chipped for energy use. Results from the two surveys suggest that timber markets are inadequate in many areas of the South as a result of expanded timber supply and reduced forest products industry capacity. Only 12% of responding landowners and foresters had sold wood to an energy facility, indicating that wood-to-energy markets are non-existent in many areas of the South. Nonetheless, 98% of consulting foresters and 90% of landowners reported a willingness to sell timber to an energy facility if the right price were offered. Consulting foresters expected wood-to-energy facilities to provide an additional market for wood, and not displace forest products industry capacity. However, two-thirds of consulting foresters, wood-to-energy facilities, and private landowners expected competition between mills and energy facilities while 95% of fibermills (pulp/paper and composite mills) expected competition. Fibermills were much more concerned about competition for resources and increases in wood costs than any other member of the southern wood supply chain. The operational study documented the challenges facing some harvesting contractors in economically producing energywood. Onboard truck roundwood costs increased from $9.35 green t-1 in the Conventional treatment to $10.98 green t-1 in the Integrated treatment as a result of reduced felling and skidding productivity. Energy chips were produced for $19.19 green t-1 onboard truck in the Integrated treatment and $17.93 green t-1 in the Chip treatment. Energywood harvesting costs were higher in this study than in previous research that employed loggers with less expensive, more fuel efficient equipment. This suggests that high capacity, wet-site capable loggers may not be able to economically harvest and transport energywood without a substantial increase in energywood prices. This study suggests that the southern wood supply chain is in position to benefit from a vibrant wood-to-energy market. Landowners should benefit from an additional market for small-diameter stems. This study shows that high production, wet-site capable loggers should not harvest energywood until prices for this material appreciate considerably. Wet-site loggers have very expensive equipment with high hourly fuel consumption rates and this study documented that energywood production was not sufficiently high to offset the high hourly cost of owning and operating this equipment. Nevertheless, a wood-to-energy market should benefit harvesting contractors in general because unless the forest products industry contracts further, loggers can continue to harvest and deliver roundwood to mills as they do at present and those properly equipped for energywood harvesting at low cost may be able to profit from a new market. The forest products industry has the largest potential downside of any member of the southern wood supply chain. This study documents widespread anticipation of competition between the forest products and wood-to-energy industries. However, to date there has been minimal wide-scale competition between the forest products and wood-to-energy industries. It is possible that the wood-to-energy industry will complement, rather than compete with the forest products industry, and thereby benefit each member of the southern wood supply chain.
Ph. D.

Among the different renewable energies, there has been in recent years a great spreading of the use of wood biomass. In particular the short wood energy chain with the implementation of micro-generation plants supplied by near woods is considered a particularly sustainable solution for the production of heat. This solution, because of the limited economic resources and small size, has often management issues as regards the implementation of the best available solutions regarding the environmental sustainability and the Occupational Safety and Health. The aim of this work is the identification of a methodology to analyze the different design solutions that is exhaustive regarding the considered points of view but it is also easily applicable to small work activities and processes. This methodology is aimed both at business managers, which require an expeditious and comprehensive method of analysis, and at the local authorities, who need to be able to determine whether a territorial implementation of these solutions can be environmentally sustainable. Given the identified end user, moreover the method need to be usable and applicable also by people which do not have an in-depth knowledge in the field. The draft version of the method have been defined by analyzing the different activities and processes composing the forest energy chain. The developed methodology of analysis was implemented by applying it to several real cases different for type, work environment, processes and work activities. The resulting methodology allows a parallel assessment of the research subject both from the points of view of Occupational Safety and Health and environmental sustainability. The method has been applied also to a prototype plant in order to observe if it is suitable to the application in the design phase. To validate the method, codified and recognized methodologies for the analysis of the Occupational Safety and Health and of the environmental sustainability have been applied to the same prototype plant. The method highlighted the need of a further assessment of the cumulative impacts which can be caused by the presence of different source of emissions in the same territory. Regarding them, the results obtained with the first draft of the method have not been considered sufficient. Therefore the method has been integrated with a further analysis. Considering atmospheric pollutant emissions, one of the factors that can cause greater alteration of the territory for the considered design hypotheses, along with the consumption of forest resources, a model for the dispersion of pollutants was applied to determine the modifications caused on the air quality. This phase of the analysis is essential in a feasibility assessment done by the local authorities. The final identified method of analysis allows an exhaustive evaluation of the whole forest energy chain and the identification for each phase of the process of the best technological alternatives from the points of view of Occupational Safety and Health and environmental sustainability. It can be the basis of analysis to obtain quality certifications and the necessary documentation of compliance for the activities and processes carried out. According to the obtained results is possible to determine the technical interventions and the procedures to be put in place to minimize the risk for the workers and the responses to be implemented to reduce the impacts on the territory. To meet the targeted goals of direct use by operators of the forest energy chain, a document tool has been excerpted from the developed method. It can be provided directly to private managers, as well as to local government decision-makers.

Biorefineries for production of fuels, chemicals, or materials, can bean important contribution to reach a fossil-free economy. Large-scaleforest-based biorefineries are not yet cost competitive with their fossil counterparts and it is important to identify biorefinery supply chain configurations with good economic, CO2, and biomass performance if biorefineries are to be a viable alternative to the fossil refineries. Several factors influence the performance of biorefinery supply chains,e.g. type of conversion process, geographical localisation, and produc-tion capacity. These aspects needs to be analysed in conjunction to identify biorefineries with good supply chain performance. There ares everal approaches to improve the performance of biorefineries, wheree.g. integration with other industries can improve the economic perfor-mance by utilisation of excess heat and by-products. From a Swedish perspective the traditional forest industry is of interest as potential host industries, due to factors such as by-product availability, opportunity for heat integration, proximity to other biomass resources, and their experience in operating large-scale biomass supply chains. The objectives of this work were to investigate how different supply chain configurations influence the economic, biomass, and CO2 perfor-mance of thermochemical biorefineries integrated with forest industries,as well as methods for evaluating those supply chains. This work shows that there is an economic benefit for integration with the traditional forest industry for thermochemical biorefineries.This is especially true when the biorefinery concept can replace cur-rent old industrial equipment on site which can significantly improvethe economic performance of the biorefinery, highlighting the role the Swedish forest industry could play to reach a cost efficient large-scale implementation of lignocellulosic biorefineries. The cost for biomass is a large contributor to the total cost of biore-fineries and for traditional techno-economic evaluations, the biomass prices are considered as static variables. A large-scale biorefinery will likely have an impact on the biomass market, which could lead to both changes in the biomass price, as well as changed biomass demand for other industries. A framework where this is accounted for was intro-duced, combining a techno-economic perspective for evaluating the sup-ply chain performance, with a market model which identifies changes in biomass price and allocation due to the increased biomass competition. The biorefinery performance can be determined from several per-spectives and system boundaries, both from a plant-level and a national perspective. To facilitate a large-scale introduction of biorefineries and  maximise the benefit from their implementations, there is a need to identify biorefinery concepts with high performance considering severa system boundaries, which has been explored in this work.

The Thesis deals with sustainability assessment methods for supporting energy policies at local scale. Methodologies and tools should adapt to policy needs, and bring benefits to local stakeholders and decision-makers. The Thesis aims to contribute to bring innovative sustainability assessment methods into local level decision processes, and to develop a comprehensive method to support energy, environmental and rural policies at local scale. It originates from the following research questions: How should scientific assessment methods have to be adapted to local policy needs? What are benefits and limitations for the involved actors in applying sustainability assessments at local scale? The different presented works provide some findings to enhance the Science-Policy link, with a focus on local energy policy. The research activity faced different aspects related to local decision-making support, with the general aim of providing effective tools to support local policy in developing bioenergy supply chains. The challenge of local policies and plans related to resource usage and productive chains is to respond to regional or supra-regional guidelines, to address site specific needs from local communities and stakeholders, and to set up detailed objectives and actions, taking into account the actual material availability, and possible development scenarios. The Chapter 1 focuses on the need of a multidisciplinary approach for ensuring sustainable processes and plans. It describes the relationships between energy and forestry sectors, and the need of holistic methods to plan a sustainable use of the resources. Particularly, the importance of evaluating environmental, social and economic aspects at local scale is highlighted. The methods – proposed in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 – contribute to quantitatively evaluate of environmental aspects – considering also social and economic dimensions – and to define achievable policy targets.

The study of the potential environmental impacts of a hypothetical wood-energy supply chain has integrated: the application of models (particularly, spatial models), the chemical and physical characteristics of the forest biomass, the techno-economic viability of different plant configurations and the Life Cycle Assessment approach, for the sustainable design of a supply chain in its life cycle. The main results are relevant in the decision-making process, related to the installation of the chain. They allow the decision maker to select the most appropriate choices, between multiple scenarios, as well as between various improvement options and responses for the potential impacts reduction. The present study has developed an approach for the wood-energy supply chain design, which integrates its most significant components (the cultural heritage of the territory, the best forestry practices, the technological and economic issues related to the exploitation of forest resources), by interpreting them from the environmental viewpoint. Indeed, for a really sustainable supply chain, none of the abovementioned components should be excluded, being them connected each other. LCA provides a valid interpretation of the systems and product supply chains related to the forest biomass, both in terms of impacts on various environmental matrices, and from that of the related potential damage on the Areas of Protection (human health, ecosystem quality, resources). The methodology is, actually, widely used in ex-post evaluations of wood-energy sectors, but, on the contrary, it is poorly implemented for the feasibility study and design; thus, the present work could represent a reference point and a baseline for future studies, insights and improvements. The study area is the Monte Olia public forest, located in the Northern side of Sardinia Island (Italy) and managed by Ente Foreste della Sardegna. A Life Cycle Assessment has been performed on the potential supply chain, by considering its main phases. Firstly, the availability of forest biomass for energy purposes has been estimated. Then, each phase of the chain has been analysed, by applying average data from similar case studies, as well as by implementing spatial models and optimisation methods for the biomass transportation. The most economically viable plant configuration has been selected by carrying out a techno-economic and environmental analysis on different plant technologies for the energy conversion of woody biomass. It has taken into account the energy demand of the service buildings within the study area, along with the characterisation of the main forest species of the Monte Olia forest (by means of laboratory determinations). The water consumptions and the emissions into water in the Life Cycle Inventory have been used for the second part of the study, which has focused on the application of the Water Footprint Assessment methodology for the designed supply chain. The analyses have consisted in: the quantification and separation of the local water appropriation and of the external amounts; the identification of the most significant supply chain phases with reference to the freshwater appropriation; the comparison between the internal appropriation volumes (related to the annual energy production) and the annual rainfall on the study area. The Water Footprint Assessment results have led us to assert the sustainability of the supply chain, from the point of view of the local freshwater appropriation. Another objective has consisted in the comparison of the Water Footprints related to the specific wood-energy supply chain and to a similar chain fed with fossil fuels (oil-fired boiler, instead of the biomass boiler), by identifying the differences in terms of Water Footprint components. The results have confirmed the greater environmental sustainability of short supply chains fed with forest biomass, than those fossil fuel-dependent. The last objective has concerned the difference between the impacts on water obtained by LCA and the results of the Water Footprint Assessment. In the present study, Life Cycle Assessment and Water Footprint Assessment have been effective tools for the sustainable wood-energy supply chain design. The use of both methodologies has allowed us to identify some critical points in the use of LCA for the management of the freshwater resources, if not being used in synergy with the Water Footprint Assessment.

Studien syftade till att ge en rekommendation angående hur fjärrvärmebolaget Stockholm Exergi bör utforma sin framtida strategi beträffande fasta oförädlade skogliga biobräanslen. Genom litteraturstudier och intervjuer utreddes dessa bränslens konkurrenskraft utifrån perspektiven klimatneutralitet, politiska direktiv och styrmedel, leveranssäkerhet samt lönsamhet. Resultatet visade bland annat att användningen av grenar och toppar kan medföra klimatnytta. Vidare framkom att implementeringen av EU:s nya förnybartdirektiv inte kommer att ha storskalig påverkan på Stockholm Exergis framtida användning av dessa bränslen. Gällande leveranssäkerhet och lönsamhet påvisades exempelvis en större framtida efterfrågan på skogliga restprodukter från andra sektorer. Ändock kunde slutsatsen dras att skogliga biobräanslen, under vissa förutsäattningar, har en viktig roll i Stockholm Exergis framtida fjärrvärmeproduktion.
The study aimed to give a recommendation regarding how the district heating company Stockholm Exergi should design their future strategy concerning unprocessed solid woody biofuels. Through literature studies and interviews, the competitiveness of the fuels has been assessed based on climate neutrality, political directives and instruments, security of supply as well as profitability. Among other things, the results showed that the use of tree branches and tops can imply positive climate effects. Furthermore, the implementation of EU's new renewable energy directive will only have a marginal impact on Stockholm Exergi's future use of woody biofuels. Regarding the security of supply and profitability,an increased future demand of forest residues in other sectors have been identified. However, the study concludes that, under certain circumstances, woody biofuels have an important role in Stockholm Exergi's future district heating production.

This research investigates forestry biomass residue supply chains in Tasmania with the aim of contributing new knowledge, tools and techniques to support decision-making on future bioenergy investments. This research develops and tests a prototype digital tool that improves the accuracy of residue estimations from harvesting operations. The research also enhances the modelling of optimised location mapping and socio-economic impact assessments for future bioenergy plants in Tasmania. The results generated by this research directly enhance the quality of information that can be used in decision-making about the feasibility of future bioenergy plants using forestry biomass residues. It is anticipated that the outputs of this research will contribute to supporting the forest industry and Governments to better balance sustainable practices alongside socio-economic priorities in Tasmania into the future. Internationally the use of forestry biomass residues (including un-merchantable trees, small-diameter trees, tops, limbs and chunks) produced by commercial harvesting operations continues to grow. These biomass residues are already being used to produce bioenergy and bio-based forest products (including engineered wood products) through processes that enhance the value of these materials that have traditionally been perceived as waste. In Australia however, use of forest biomass residues continues to be relatively low, even though large volumes of residues are produced, and numerous governments have funded initiatives to stimulate increased utilisation. In Tasmania, commercial timber harvesting and land-clearing operations produce approximately 6-8 million dry tons of forestry biomass residues that go uncollected or are removed through controlled burning every year. Treating these biomass residues as a waste product actually poses a number of socio-economic and environmental challenges and costs. However, efforts to develop forestry biomass residue utilisation initiatives have been relatively limited and fragmented along Tasmanian forestry supply chains. Despite some previous research highlighting evidence of the potential for both bioenergy generation and bio-based product development, there are a number of real and/or ‘perceived’ technical, logistical and economic challenges that continue to act as barriers to wide-scale forestry biomass residue utilisation in Tasmania. These challenges include that: (i) Forest residues are highly varied, of low quality and widely distributed across timber harvesting sites in ways that impose residue collection, processing and transportation problems that have implications for the economic viability of residue utilisation operations in any specific location; (ii) Despite the large volumes of residues, continued uncertainty exists about the nature, amount and quality of residues in any particular harvesting operation. Frequently there is also limited knowledge about other factors such as forest site accessibility at different times of the year, weather conditions, availability of pre-processing technology, pre-existing haulage contracting models, as well as total distances to and/or existence of markets for these residues. The methodological approach used to conduct this investigation involved deploying both quantitative and qualitative techniques through case studies that aimed to combine improved data accuracy on biomass residues with quantitative optimisation modelling and socio-economic impact assessments to enhance decision-making on future bioenergy investments. The research strategy was structured in three phases. Phase one focused on improving the accuracy of estimated biomass availability through the development of FIELD (forest inventory electronic live data) tool capable of interpreting harvester head StanForD data combined with pre-existing allometric equations to determine residue availability. Phase two focused on optimal location mapping for prospective bio-energy facilities by integrating geographic information system (GIS) data on Tasmania with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to support multi-criteria decision-making in a selected case study region of Tasmania. In phase three, Meander Valley Council (MVC), one of the identified three biomass potential locations from Phase two, was chosen to explore through scenarios the socio-economic impacts from different sized proposed biomass energy plants for this case. Analysis of phase one reveals how the FIELD digital tool can produce improved accuracy and near real-time data on the availability, quality and location of harvesting residues at any individual site. The analysis also highlights how FIELD opens up opportunities for value chain mapping. The FIELD software supports the generation of forest value maps that include valuable information for improving forest management and silviculture planning. The value map consists of individual tree DBH that are geo-located in the harvesting site. The use of combined value map and other environmental data such as soil composition, nutrients, and climate, can support analysis of how different site parameters affected tree growing and allow the development of more accurate predictive management plans about optimising tree planting to increase future timber productivity at any individual site. The FIELD tool also pointed towards the possibility of generating Tasmania-wide accurate estimations of forest biomass residues that could be geo-spatially linked into a residues availability database. Unfortunately, due to limitations in access to StanForD data across multiple sites, from multiple industry players, it was not possible to build this residues availability database during this research. Importantly insights generated from phase one were directly useful for phase two analysis that focused on optimal location mapping for prospective bio-energy facilities. This location optimisation modelling relied on previously prepared residue availability estimations at the State-wide level. More specifically phase two analysis integrated GIS data, and an AHP model with logistics cost analysis to determine the best candidate locations based on optimal biomass logistics supply chain costings. The analysis utilised three main criteria (economic, environmental, and social) as well as a number of sub-criteria established and considered to investigate specific biomass facility locations. From the identified list of optimal locations, one was selected and modelled in detail using a range of scenarios covering different sizes of bio-energy facilities. The case study location selected was in the meander valley council area in northern Tasmania. The same case study location was then carried forward into phase three. Phase three focused on a range of scenarios analysing socio-economic impact assessments of different sized future bioenergy plants in the meander value case study region. Modelling conducted investigated socio-economic impacts from a prospective co-generation bioenergy plant under 50 MW using data related to biomass energy generation in the case study area (Valley Central Industrial Precinct). The analysis was completed using the jobs and economic development impact model (JEDI) combined with biomass residues estimations based on a range of different distances from the optimal bioenergy facility location. The analysis modelled both the quantity and quality of biomass residue feedstocks suitable to make the most viable bioenergy facility while optimising socio-economic impacts. The key results of these research investigations conducted across the three phases contribute new knowledge, tools and techniques for supporting decision-making on future bioenergy investments in Tasmania. More specifically, the key results produced can be summarised as follows: • The FIELD digital tool does improve the accuracy of data on the availability and type of forestry biomass residues and directly answered the first research question of this investigation. The FIELD digital tool also supported the development of forest value maps for individual harvested locations that may be used to improve forest management and silviculture planning, including re-forestation. However, the research also identified several challenges for the wider adoption of the FIELD tool. These include the need for further validation to be conducted through field measurement comparison studies and non-matched allometric equations in study site conditions. Future validation research will further improve the accuracy and utility of the FIELD tool. • In combining GIS and AHP techniques, it was possible to systematically identify and model optimal locations for future bioenergy plants in Tasmania and to interrogate the impact of different factors on the scenarios modelled including balancing economic and environmental considerations. The case study results confirm resource availability, land use and supply chain cost data can be meaningfully integrated and mapped using GIS to facilitate the determination of different sustainable criteria weightings and to ultimately generate optimal candidate locations for prospective bioenergy energy facilities. These results advance contemporary techniques by presenting innovative approaches for the sustainable utilisation of forestry biomass residues as a resource for the generation of bioenergy in Tasmania. • In conducting socio-economic impact assessments across different scenarios for future bioenergy facilities in phase three, this research was able to model residue availability and bioenergy generation output as an approach to evaluate potential impacts under a range of conditions. Potential bioenergy residue feedstocks were categorised into viable onsite and offsite sources and quantified in terms of their different bioenergy outputs for different sized bioenergy plants. To complete the evaluation of the potential socio-economic impact of the proposed plant, the analysis was conducted using the JEDI (Jobs and Economic Development Impact model). The results confirm the potential for significant job creation and other socio-economic benefits during both the construction and plant operational periods. Additional socio-economic activity is also expected from the provision of low-cost renewable bioenergy attracting other businesses to establish at VCIP, and from the multiplier effects from related spending in the local economy. These techniques and the explicit articulation of the underlying assumptions used provide a method for studying bioenergy generation options from biomass residues. It is anticipated that the results of this research investigation will be of direct value to researchers interested in forest supply chains involving biomass residue utilisation. It is also hoped that the results will be of value to the Tasmanian forest industry, their supply chain partners as well as contribute insights to the State government about potential future bioenergy investments.

Recent literature has recommended that life cycle assessments (LCA) of forest bioenergy supply chains consider the impact of biomass harvest on ecosystem carbon stocks as well as the net emissions arising from combustion of various forms of biofuels compared with reference fossil fuel systems. The present study evaluated the magnitude and temporal variation of ecosystem C stock changes resulting from harvest of roadside residues and unutilized whole trees for bioenergy. The Carbon Budget Model (CBM-CFS3) was applied to the Gordon Cosens Forest, in northeastern Ontario, along with the Biomass Opportunity Supply Model (BiOS-Map), for cost analysis of different types of biomass comminution. Natural gas (NG) steam and electricity, grid electricity, and coal electricity reference systems were analyzed for a pulp and paper mill. The findings showed that the forested landscape becomes a net sink for carbon following the 20th year of roadside residue harvest, compared to whole-tree harvest, where the forested landscape remained a net source of carbon over the entire 100 year rotation. The cumulative ecosystem carbon loss from whole-tree harvest was 11 times greater compared to roadside residue harvest. BiOS-Map analysis suggested that due to technical and operational limits, between 55%-59% and 16%-24% of aboveground biomass was not recovered under roadside residue and whole-tree harvest respectively. The cost of delivering roadside residues was estimated at $52.32/odt–$57.45/odt, and for whole trees $92.63/odt–$97.44/odt. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) analysis showed break-even points of 25, 33 and 6 years for roadside residues displacing NG steam, NG electricity, and coal, respectively. No GHG reduction was achieved when forest biomass was used to displace grid electricity that is generated in Ontario. Whole-tree bioenergy resulted in no GHG reduction for NG displacement, and a break-even point of 70-86 years for coal. A net GHG reduction of 67% and 16% was realized when roadside residues and whole trees were used to displace coal, compared to 45% and 38% when roadside residues were used to displace NG steam and NG electricity, respectively. Therefore, it is recommended that bioenergy deployment strategies focus on the utilization of roadside residues, if the main goal is GHG mitigation.

The American West at Risk summarizes the dominant human-generated environmental challenges in the 11 contiguous arid western United States - America's legendary, even mythical, frontier. When discovered by European explorers and later settlers, the west boasted rich soils, bountiful fisheries, immense, dense forests, sparkling streams, untapped ore deposits, and oil bonanzas. It now faces depletion of many of these resources, and potentially serious threats to its few "renewable" resources. The importance of this story is that preserving lands has a central role for protecting air and water quality, and water supplies--and all support a healthy living environment. The idea that all life on earth is connected in a great chain of being, and that all life is connected to the physical earth in many obvious and subtle ways, is not some new-age fad, it is scientifically demonstrable. An understanding of earth processes, and the significance of their biological connections, is critical in shaping societal values so that national land use policies will conserve the earth and avoid the worst impacts of natural processes. These connections inevitably lead science into the murkier realms of political controversy and bureaucratic stasis. Most of the chapters in The American West at Risk focus on a human land use or activity that depletes resources and degrades environmental integrity of this resource-rich, but tender and slow-to-heal, western U.S. The activities include forest clearing for many purposes; farming and grazing; mining for aggregate, metals, and other materials; energy extraction and use; military training and weapons manufacturing and testing; road and utility transmission corridors; recreation; urbanization; and disposing of the wastes generated by everything that we do. We focus on how our land-degrading activities are connected to natural earth processes, which act to accelerate and spread the damages we inflict on the land. Visit www.theamericanwestatrisk.com to learn more about the book and its authors.

Humans are homo duplex, seeking to be individuals but knowing this is only possible in communities. Thus, humans struggle to integrate these two sides of their nature. Megachurches have been enormously successful at resolving this struggle. How do they do it, and what is it about their structure and rituals that makes so many feel as if they are high on God? The affective energies and emotional valences that characterize religious ecstasy are the primary focus of our study of megachurches. Empirically, humans want and desire forms of what Randall Collins calls “emotional energy.” Drawing on extensive qualitative and quantitative data on twelve nationally representative megachurches, we identify six desires that megachurches evoke and meet: acceptance, awe and spiritual stimulation, reliable leadership, deliverance, purpose, and solidarity in a community of like-minded others. Megachurches satisfy these desires through co-presence—being in the presence of other desiring people—a shared mood achieved through powerful musical worship services, a mutual focus of attention on the charismatic senior pastor who acts as an emotional charging agent, transformative altar calls, service opportunities, and small-group participation. This interaction ritual chain solidifies attendees’ commitment and group loyalty, and keeps them coming back to be recharged. Megachurches also have a dark side: they are known for their highly publicized scandals often involving malfeasance of the senior pastor. After examining the positive and negative sides to megachurches, we conclude that they successfully meet the desire of humans to flourish as individuals and to do so in a group.

AbstractThis chapter recognises that current food consumption patterns, often characterised by higher levels of food waste and a transition in diets towards higher energy, more resource-intensive foods, need to be transformed. Food systems in both developed and developing countries are changing rapidly. Increasingly characterised by a high degree of vertical integration, evolutions in food systems are being driven by new technologies that are changing production processes, distribution systems, marketing strategies, and the food products that people eat. These changes offer the opportunity for system-wide change in the way in which production interacts with the environment, giving greater attention to the ecosystem services offered by the food sector. However, developments in food systems also pose new challenges and controversies. Food system changes have responded to shifts in consumer preferences towards larger shares of more animal-sourced and processed foods in diets, raising concerns regarding the calorific and nutritional content of many food items. By increasing food availability, lowering prices and increasing quality standards, they have also induced greater food waste at the consumer end. In addition, the potential fast transmission of food-borne disease, antimicrobial resistance and food-related health risks throughout the food chain has increased, and the ecological footprint of the global food system continues to grow in terms of energy, resource use, and impact on climate change. The negative consequences of food systems from a nutritional, environmental and livelihood perspective are increasingly being recognised by consumers in some regions. With growing consumer awareness, driven by concerns about the environmental and health impacts of investments and current supply chain technologies and practices, as well as by a desire among new generations of city dwellers to reconnect with their rural heritage and use their own behaviour to drive positive change, opportunities exist to define and establish added-value products that are capable of internalising social or environmental delivery within their price. These forces can be used to fundamentally reshape food systems by stimulating coordinated government action in changing the regulatory environment that, in turn, incentivises improved private sector investment decisions. Achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems is complex and requires a multi-pronged approach. Actions necessary include awareness-raising, behaviour change interventions in food environments, food education, strengthened urban-rural linkages, improved product design, investments in food system innovations, public-private partnerships, public procurement, and separate collection that enables alternative uses of food waste, all of which can contribute to this transition. Local and national policy-makers and small- and large-scale private sector actors have a key role in both responding to and shaping the market opportunities created by changing consumer demands.

One of the key elements of future energy generation is the switch to non-depletable resources, widely known as renewable energy sources (RES). There are many types of RES, however, but the focus of this article is on biomass products, which mainly consists of forest production (wood) and energy crops. One of the main problems of using biomass products for renewable energy production is the fact that several constraints should be imposed for both the management of forests and land. There are different aspects of optimal management of biomass products that guarantees the sustainability of the ecological systems. In this article, an analysis of the management for forest and agricultural products from energy crops is presented, demonstrating latest trends in biomass products as primal resource for renewable energy. Finally, a conceptual model for a biomass supply chain is proposed and discussed.

Protective forests are an effective Forest-based Solution (FbS) for Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) and are part of an integrated risk management (IRM) of natural hazards. However, their utilization requires addressing conflicting interests as well as considering relevant spatial and temporal scales. Decision support systems (DSS) can improve the quality of such complex decision-making processes regarding the most suitable and accepted combinations of risk mitigation measures. We introduce four easy-to-apply DSS to foster an ecosystem-based and integrated management of natural hazard risks as well as to increase the acceptance of protective forests as FbS for Eco-DRR: (1) the Flow-Py simulation tool for gravitational mass flows that can be used to model forests with protective functions and to estimate their potential for reducing natural hazards’ energy, (2) an exposure assessment model chain for quantifying forests’ relevance for reducing natural hazard risks, (3) the Rapid Risk management Appraisal (RRA), a participatory method aiming to identify IRM strengths and points for improvement, and (4) the Protective Forest Assessment Tool (FAT), an online DSS for comparing different mitigation measures. These are only a few examples covering various aims and spatial and temporal scales. Science and practice need to collaborate to provide applied DSS for an IRM of natural hazards.

Forest management operations adequately integrated in the forestry value-chain are the gold standard in wildfire prevention. However, these operations generate considerable amounts of residual forest biomass (RFB) that cannot be legally disposed in land and further require suitable management. Residual biomass also includes highly flammable plants existing in the Portuguese forest such as gorse, broom, giant reed and acacia. Quite often wildfires in Portugal are linked with spreading of this residual biomass that promotes fuel accumulation. Besides deleterious impacts on rural and forestry economy, wildfires are also a driver for desertification and soil degradation. Alternative uses for this residual biomass to promote its valorisation and enable proper models of management of forest areas are needed, thus providing economic and environmental benefits towards decreasing of the fuel load. Though this biomass has reasonable carbon content and heating value, they also present inorganic composition (e.g. Na, K, Cl) that promotes operating problems in thermochemical conversion processes as combustion and gasification for useful energy production because of ash related problems (e.g., sintering/fouling), thus restricting their use in such applications. As such, biochar production by pyrolysis is a potential alternative to generate added-value. During pyrolysis the volatile matter of biomass is released to the gaseous phase, resulting a solid product, biochar, which is carbon-rich and contains most of the inorganics (nutrients) of the raw biomass. Exposure of biomass inorganics as free ashes is prevented in this process, and hence pyrolysis mitigates their negative effects. Nonetheless, the efficient pyrolysis of these types of biomass requires development of novel solutions optimized for energy and environmental performance. Enhancing of the energetic sustainability of the process and minimizing of the environmental impacts associated to the emission of gaseous pollutants are aspects of major relevance. Additionally, the biochar quality depends on biomass type, technology and operating conditions used. The BioValChar project (https://biovalchar.web.ua.pt/en/) seeks to answer these challenges related to valorisation of low-quality residual biomass through production of biochar by pyrolysis, which can return back to forest and rural soils. This approach will provide both carbon/nutrient cycling and synergies within forestry management, wildfire prevention, improvement of soil quality and rural development, under the circular economy principle. The research focus valorisation of residual forest biomass in full-control pyrolytic batch and continuous (auger-type reactor) processes, and testing of the resulting biochar performance as soil amendment. Moreover, a prototype of an integrated mobile unit for auto-thermal and continuous biochar production by pyrolysis of biomass is also being developed, by using the pyrolysis gases to provide the energetic needs of the process. Here we present the project overview, as well as some preliminary results on pyrolytic valorisation of one selected biomass (acacia) into biochar through distinct operating modes and conditions.

Quantum technology works with and relies on sub-atomic particles or physics that operates on the quantum level. Quantum computing has become a mature field, having diversified applications in supply chain and logistics, chemistry, economics and financial services, energy and agriculture, medicine and health, etc. In the recent years, companies have started to incorporate quantum software to benefit the research and the practitioner communities. Software engineering and programming practices need to be brought into the domain of quantum computing. Quantum algorithms provide the ability to analyze the data and offer simulations based on the data. A few of the quantum computing programming languages include QISKit, Q#, Cirq, and forest are used to write and run quantum programs. In this chapter, the authors provide an overall picture of the problems and challenges of developing quantum software and up-to-date software engineering processes, methods, techniques, practices, and principles for the development of quantum software to both researchers and practitioners.

Early on June 19, 2002, Paul Garcia looked off the rim of the Mogollon Plateau and did not like what he saw. Down toward Cibecue, the capital of the Fort Apache Reservation, home of the White Mountain Apaches, dark smoke boiled into the Arizona sky. The wind was pushing it in Garcia’s direction, toward the rim, as the prevailing southwest wind always pushed fires that start down on the Rez. The churning smoke—dark-tinged because of solid materials that volatilized without burning—told Garcia that the fire was gaining energy, building strength. He was the fire management officer of the Lakeside Ranger District, a unit of the Sitgreaves National Forest. His boss, a couple of steps up the chain of command, was Forest Supervisor John Bedell, who remembers getting a call from Garcia: “He said, ‘You know, this thing has some potential. . . . If they don’t catch it today, it’s going to get pretty big.’ ” The firefighters on the reservation didn’t catch it. The Rodeo Fire, which began as an act of arson near the Cibecue rodeo grounds, grew from a size of 1,000 acres on June 18 to 55,000 acres the next day. Garcia, Bedell, and a burgeoning army of Forest Service firefighters scrambled to meet the fire atop the rim, hoping to hold it at the rim road that marked the boundary between the reservation and the National Forest. They did not succeed. By mid-afternoon the fire had developed multiple towering plumes of smoke and ash. Its front advanced at an average rate of four miles an hour. Whole stands of eighty-foot trees ignited in an instant, shooting flames 400 feet high and lofting aerial firebrands half a mile downwind. By 4:00 p.m., some of those firebrands were spotting across the rim road. The Mogollon Rim is one of the most pronounced topographic features of the Southwest.

Growing awareness and concern within society over the use of and reliance on fossil fuels has stimulated research efforts in identifying, developing, and selecting alternative energy sources and energy technologies. Bioenergy represents a promising replacement for conventional energy, due to reduced environmental impacts and broad applicability. Sustainable energy challenges, however, require innovative manufacturing technologies and practices to mitigate energy and material consumption. This research aims to facilitate sustainable production of bioenergy from forest biomass and to promote deployment of novel processing equipment (mobile bio-refinery units). The study integrates knowledge from the renewable energy production and supply chain management disciplines to evaluate economic targets of bioenergy production with use of qualitative and quantitative techniques. The decision support system method employs two phases: (1) classification of potential biomass harvesting sites via decision tree analysis and (2) optimization of the supply network through a mixed integer linear programming model that minimizes the costs of upstream and midstream supply chain segments. While mobile units are shown to reduce biomass-to-bioenergy supply chain costs, production and deployment of the units is limited due to undeveloped bioenergy supply chains and quality uncertainty. It is reiterated that future research must address process-related and systemic issues in pursuit of sustainable energy technology development.

A mathematical model of the working process of energy recovery in the fifth wheel coupling of a timber tractor with a semitrailer is presented. To set the perturbing action of the support surface on the bodies of a timber tractor and a semitrailer, an elastic-viscous wheel model was used. Differential equations are solved numerically at each integration step. The intensive relative movement of a timber tractor and a semitrailer in the mathematical model is described by movement on a support surface with random irregularities and movement on a flat horizontal surface with variable speed. The use of the numerical method made it possible at each integration step to determine the value of the generated recuperative power in the fifth wheel coupling, as well as to calculate the average values of the longitudinal acceleration of the semitrailer relative to the timber tractor.

Recent growing interest in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires the application of effective energy solutions, such as the utilization of renewable resources. Biomass represents a promising renewable resource for bioenergy, since it has the potential to reduce GHG emissions from various industry sectors. In spite of the potential benefits, biomass is limited due to logistical challenges of collection and transport to bio-refineries. This study proposes a forest biomass-to-bio-oil mixed supply chain network to reduce the GHG emissions compared to a conventional bioenergy supply chain. The mixed supply chain includes mixed-mode bio-refineries and mixed-pathway transportation. Life cycle assessment is conducted for a case study in the Pacific Northwest with the assistance of available life cycle inventory data for biomass-to-bio-oil supply chain. Impact assessment, on a global warming potential (GWP) basis, is conducted with the assistance of databases within SimaPro 8 software. Sensitivity analysis for the case investigated indicates that using the mixed supply chain can reduce GHG emissions by 2–5% compared to the traditional supply chain.

The emergence of battery operated landscaping equipment has driven increased scrutiny of the energy usage of such devices. Energy consumption is a primary design constraint for these new yard tools due to the low energy density of current battery technology compared to gasoline. Consumer battery-powered electric chain saws are an example. In order to provide both portability and usability the system’s power use must be understood in detail. Power use associated with cutting, friction, vibration, chip removal, and parasitic loads are all relevant entities in cutting system design. Interface friction between the cutting chain and bar as well as increases in cutting force due to chain vibration are of particular interest. In this work, a test apparatus capable of determining the efficiency of cutting systems for use on chain saws is designed and constructed. Cutting power and frictional losses can be determined with the device under automated, user specified conditions. Operational parameters including chain velocity, feed velocity, and feed load may be used as feedback for device control. A universal mounting and drive system allows for testing with a wide range of off-the-shelf chains, bars, and drive sprockets. Input torque to the chain and reaction forces on the cutting media are recorded outputs which are used to analyze system efficiency. Preliminary work with the machine confirms trends found in existing research literature. Future research performed with the test apparatus will aid in new product design and enhance understanding of energy consumption in chainsaw cutting systems.

In this paper, we consider the problem of energy control of an n-degrees-of-freedom system consisting of a chain of masses wherein each of the masses is connected to its neighboring mass with the help of a nonlinear memoryless spring element. The qualitative nature of the nonlinearity in each of the spring elements can, in general, be different. Both fixed-fixed and fixed-free boundary conditions are considered. The energy control problem is approached from a new perspective — that of constrained motion. For a given set of masses at which the control is to be applied, explicit closed form expressions for the nonlinear control forces are derived by using the fundamental equation of mechanics. Through the use of the invariance principle, we show that these control forces provide global asymptotic convergence to any ‘given’ non-zero energy state provided that the first mass, or the last mass, or alternately, any two consecutive masses in the chain are included in the subset of masses that are controlled. The results obtained in this paper are, in general, applicable to any finite degrees-of-freedom, fixed-fixed or fixed-free nonlinear chain whose spring potentials are described by a class of twice continuously differentiable, strictly convex functions, which possess a global minimum at zero displacement, with zero curvature possibly only at zero displacement.

Magnetorheological fluids (MR fluids) attracted much interest in recent years [1]. This is due to both their potential applications such as valves, clutches, brakes, and dampers [2] and the fact that they provide a good model system of a complex fluid where the particle-particle interaction is anisotropic. MR fluids consist of micron- or submicron-sized, magnetizable particles which are dispersed in a suitable solvent. We used a monodisperse ferrofluid emulsion as a model MR fluid, i.e. in our case the particles are ferrofluid droplets and the solvent is water. With no magnetic field applied the droplets are not magnetic and behave basically like hard spheres. In this state the MR fluid is a free flowing liquid with a consistency similar to that of the solvent alone. Application of an external magnetic field induces a dipole moment in each droplet. The dipole-dipole interaction between the particles causes the formation of chains and columns of particles along the field lines provided the interaction energy exceeds the thermal energy. In concentrated suspensions the structure formation occurs on a time scale of milliseconds and causes the fluid to respond to shear forces perpendicular to the field direction with a considerable yield stress and a dramatically increased viscosity [3].

The UK has a legal commitment to reach net zero carbon (NZC) emissions by 2050. This is a topic that has recently been building momentum, with clean growth being one of the four Grand Challenges set out by the UK Government. The ways we grow, process and transport food are major contributors to climate change, accounting for more than a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing this will require substantial changes in agriculture, manufacturing, and transport. Consequently, the Science Council and FSA Chief Scientific Adviser (CSA) agreed that a deeper understanding of the potential implications of achieving net zero on food systems, together with identification of areas of uncertainty, would be of considerable value to FSA in pre-empting future policy and evidence needs in this area. In early discussions to scope the work required, Defra indicated to the FSA Science Council Secretariat that there are many new developments and changes to activity in primary production aimed at achieving net zero. The Science Council agreed, therefore, to concentrate its first investigations on changes expected in primary food production. Primary production is the production of chemical energy in organic forms by living organisms. The main source of this energy is sunlight. For the purposes of this review, primary food production includes the growing and harvesting of plants as food for humans or feed for animals, and the rearing and slaughter of animals including livestock, fish and a wide variety of aquatic and marine organisms. A Science Council Working Group 6 (WG6) began work in summer 2021, led by Science Council members Mrs Claire Nicholson (WG6 Chair) and Prof Jonathan Wastling (WG6 Deputy Chair). The brief for WG6 is to investigate the potential food safety implications arising from changes to primary food production practices and technologies that reduce carbon emissions in the next 10 years. The work programme (described in this report) covers 4 phases, with phases 1 and 2 now complete. The work so far has drawn diverse, wide-ranging, sometimes slightly conflicting, views and opinions from across academia, the FSA, Defra, industry bodies and individual food producers. This interim report summarises: The work undertaken to date (phases 1 and 2) What has been learnt including changes to practice already underway or imminent Issues arising from the changes that the FSA should be aware of Further work planned by WG6 to understand the nature of the risks in more depth (phases 3 and 4) The Science Council aims to complete its investigations by the end of 2022 and present its findings to the FSA Board as soon as possible afterwards.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.

Macroeconomic summary The Colombian economy sustained numerous shocks in the second quarter, pri¬marily related to costs and supply. The majority of these shocks were unantic¬ipated or proved more persistent than expected, interrupting the recovery in economic activity observed at the beginning of the year and pushing overall inflation above the target. Core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) increased but remained low, in line with the technical staff’s expectations. A third wave of the pandemic, which became more severe and prolonged than the previous outbreak, began in early April. This had both a high cost in terms of human life and a negative impact on Colombia's economic recovery. Between May and mid-June roadblocks and other disruptions to public order had a sig¬nificant negative effect on economic activity and inflation. The combination and magnitude of these two shocks likely led to a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) compared to the first quarter. Roadblocks also led to a significant in¬crease in food prices. The accumulated effects of global disruptions to certain value chains and increased international freight transportation prices, which since the end of 2020 have restricted supply and increased costs, also affected Colombia’s economy. The factors described above, which primarily affected the consumer price index (CPI) for goods and foods, explain to a significant degree the technical staff’s forecast errors and the increase in overall inflation above the 3% target. By contrast, increases in core inflation and in prices for regulated items were in line with the technical staff’s expectations, and can be explained largely by the elimination of various price relief measures put in place last year. An increase in perceived sovereign risk and the upward pressures that this im¬plies on international financing costs and the exchange rate were further con¬siderations. Despite significant negative shocks, economic growth in the first half of the year (9.1%) is now expected to be significantly higher than projected in the April re¬port (7.1%), a sign of a more dynamic economy that could recover more quickly than previously forecast. Diverse economic activity figures have indicated high¬er-than-expected growth since the end of 2020. This suggests that the negative effects on output from recurring waves of COVID-19 have grown weaker and less long-lasting with subsequent outbreaks. Nevertheless, the third wave of the coro¬navirus, and to an even greater degree the previously mentioned roadblocks and disruptions to public order, likely led to a decline in GDP in the second quar¬ter compared to the first. Despite this, data from the monthly economic tracking indicator (ISE) for April and May surpassed expectations, and new sector-level measures of economic activity suggest that the negative impact of the pandemic on output continues to moderate, amid reduced restrictions on mobility and im¬provements in the pace of vaccination programs. Freight transportation registers (June) and unregulated energy demand (July), among other indicators, suggest a significant recovery following the roadblocks in May. Given the above, annual GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to have been around 17.3% (previously 15.8%), explained in large part by a low basis of comparison. The technical staff revised its growth projection for 2021 upward from 6% to 7.5%. This forecast, which comes with an unusually high degree of uncertain¬ty, assumes no additional disruptions to public order and that any new waves of COVID-19 will not have significant additional negative effects on economic activity. Recovery in international demand, price levels for some of Colombia’s export com¬modities, and remittances from workers abroad have all performed better than projected in the previous report. This dynamic is expected to continue to drive recovery in the national income over the rest of the year. Continued ample international liquidity, an acceleration in vacci¬nation programs, and low interest rates can also be ex¬pected to favor economic activity. Improved performance in the second quarter, which led to an upward growth revision for all components of spending, is expected to continue, with the economy returning to 2019 production levels at the end of 2021, earlier than estimated in the April report. This forecast continues to account for the short-term effects on aggregate demand of a tax reform package along the lines of what is currently being pro-posed by the national government. Given the above, the central forecast scenario in this report projects growth in 2021 of 7.5% and in 2022 of 3.1% (Graph 1.1). In this scenar¬io, economic activity would nonetheless remain below potential. The noted improvement in these projections comes with a high degree of uncertainty. Annual inflation increased more than expected in June (3.63%) as a result of changes in food prices, while growth in core inflation (1.87%) was similar to projections.

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias