Дисертації з теми "Foresight Study"
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Petersson, Daniel, Robert Lauritzen, and Christofer Särndahl. "Foresight practices and the influence on financial performance : A qualitative study on four manufacturing companies in the business-to-business environment." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för marknadsföring (MF), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-27112.
Повний текст джерелаGreenstine, Andreea, and Alyona Sazonova. "A Study of How Companies Enhance Their Strategies through Foresight Procedures to Anticipate and More Appropriately Prepare for Change." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för marknadsföring (MF), 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-36055.
Повний текст джерелаTobin, Michael. "Future scenarios for institutes of technology in the Irish higher education system : a strategic foresight study." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.557645.
Повний текст джерелаPhillips, S. "Trade association strategies for providing technology intelligence to small and medium sized enterprises : a study of UK technology foresight processes." Thesis, Brunel University, 2010. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/4511.
Повний текст джерелаKjellgren, Stina [Verfasser], and Ortwin [Akademischer Betreuer] Renn. "Chance at foresight - risk of misuse? : an empirical study of scenario simulation for natural hazard risk management / Stina Kjellgren ; Betreuer: Ortwin Renn." Stuttgart : Universitätsbibliothek der Universität Stuttgart, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1130247511/34.
Повний текст джерелаHaga, Heitor Cesar Riogi. "Produção e comercialização de insumos da cadeia produtiva da construção habitacional: diagnóstico para o desenvolvimento de estudos de prospecção tecnológica." Universidade de São Paulo, 2008. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3146/tde-12082008-222241/.
Повний текст джерелаThe Brazilian construction sector has recently been showing intense growth, and its dynamism is due to institutional changes and evolution in the macroeconomic scenario. The increasing volume of new constructions has put pressure on the construction materials sectors and some consequences of this situation have already been noticed, such as local supply problems and variation in the price of some materials. This explorative research is inserted in this scenario and aims to make a diagnosis of the production and sales sectors of materials in the house construction production chain, using the concept of technological foresight. The method is based on bibliographical and descriptive researches, also using field data collection to gather up-to-date information. The conceptual model proposed by Castro & Lima (2001) of technological foresight for production chain analysis was adopted. The main results were the modeling, performance analysis, identification of critical factors, their respective driving and restrictive forces and, finally, the determination of bottlenecks in the sector. The study shows that all segments of the construction sector are focusing their efforts to obtain production capacity efficiency, so as to guarantee the supply of their products. It can be concluded that the adopted method shows strong potential to be used to analyze production chains in the construction materials industry.
Sung-Yi, Lin, and 林松毅. "Foresight Study of the Internet of Things." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/38723234255126592803.
Повний текст джерела開南大學
資訊及電子商務學系
101
As wireless network and cloud computing has become more popular in recent years, the concept of the Internet of Things (IOT) is gradually catching the world’s attention. Many forecast firms and specialists predicted the concept will bring significant economic value in the future. This study implemented Scenario Analysis to analyze and find the key decision factors such as “Standard protocol”, “Social factors”, “Popularity of the application model”, “equipment/device”, “Energy systems”, and “Operational model” which can lead to successful IOTs. Then the study explores political, social, economic, technological and environmental protection these five dimensions to find the external factors that affects IOT development. The external factors are concentrated into three determinates: “environmental conditions”, “degree of development of the components”, and “technical support” which are implemented into scenarios to analyze our country’s strength, weakness, opportunities and threats using SWOT analysis.
Yu-HsuanHsu and 徐玉軒. "Study of the Foresight Minerals Policy in Taiwan." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/3kwcp3.
Повний текст джерела國立成功大學
資源工程學系
102
In order to develop economy, Taiwan has set the foresight plans for economic growth. Since the economic growth is related to mineral resources, the foresight plans should involve mineral issues. The purpose of this study is to combine the public policy and the STEEPV analysis to formulate the minerals policy. This study includes two steps of public policy progress. First, we use STEEPV methodology to analyze the mining environment of Taiwan to define the problems. Then, we use questionnaire method and foreign minerals policy analysis to propose policy direction in line with Taiwan's foresight minerals industry. The vision of foresight minerals policy in Taiwan is the sustainable mineral resources. In order to achieve the vision, a principle” The highest standards of environment and technology, and the minimum guarantee of supply and demand” is made. Four directions are including in the principle, which are the stability supply of raw materials, the demand for the mineral productions, the environmental protection, and the technological enhance. We follow these four directions to give policy recommendations to the government. We hope this paper can convince the government to formulate sustainable minerals policy.
Lin, Hao-Chu, and 林浩鉅. "National Foresight Planning and Technology Strategy Methodology Study." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/51789315887537032047.
Повний текст джерела國立臺灣科技大學
管理研究所
100
In response to future external environmental challenges and gather consensus on national development, developed and developing countries have endeavored on foresight projects respectively over the past thirty years to set national direction of development and allocate R&D resources through a standardized operational model. However, the major national foresight programs with 4-5 year as a cycle have confronted many challenges including prolonged planning time resulting in not keeping up with the ever-changing environment; massive resource investment not suitable for countries with limited resources; and bottlenecks such as operability of planning process connecting to the follow-up project promotion. In addition, in the national foresight planning, technology development and acquisition are two crucial competitive advantages for countries. However, countries confront three challenges, i.e., uncertainties of technology development, uncertainties of external environment, and how to maintain strategic flexibility in carrying out technology strategic planning in the rapid-changing environment. In this thesis, we have two major topics. In the first topic, we focus on the national foresight methodology and propose a dynamic modular design perspective to overcome such difficulties and demonstrate the process and achievements of foresight planning with 2020 Taiwan Foresight Project as an example. In the second topic, we focus on the technology strategy analysis for the national foresight and propose Scenario Strategy Matrix (SSM)、 Scenario Sensitivity Matrix (SSM) and Scenario Sensitivity Index (SSI) as instruments and discuss the technology development strategy under scenarios change with selection of emerging technologies for Taiwan in 2020 as a case.
Shen, Po-Chang, and 沈伯璋. "A study of Foresight-based New Product Planning Model." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/95081245005604313393.
Повний текст джерела國立交通大學
科技管理研究所
98
Cooper & Klein had done an investigation in rate of depletion of NPD(new product development), however, the result indicated that four out of seven projects of NPD could proceed to developing phase, while only 1.5 had a chance to step into mass production. At the end only one product would be successful. In such environment full of uncertainties and risks, NPD is a costly activity with high failure rate. Under such circumstances, how to choose highest priority for future products to create greatest value will be the key successful factor to product planning model. Technology roadmap is a structural tool for technology forecasting that has been developed for a decade to define the challenges of product and technology that enterprises will face in the future. At the same time it helps come up with solutions. Through this process, enterprises focus their resources only on developing current priority technology in order to integrate product development plans, creating value for customers. This study will be in a perspective of product planning strategy, using technology roadmap developed by Institute of Manufacturing Technology of University of Cambridge, combining with scenario planning and patent analysis. We want to simplify the complex process of new product planning by using simple charts and point out the goal of new product roadmap by a simple model, providing the industry as a strategic thinking tool for NPD. Case study is to find out developing trend of next-generation product features in six different scenarios of digital home for H home appliance manufacturer through five steps of product planning model. First, realize home appliance industry current status. Then focus on digital home scenarios by using scenarios planning to explore the impact of digital home needs in product features. Next step, assess technical capability of product features by analyzing technology development. Finally, to summarize that the strategic plan for next generation digital home products with patent analysis lies in health care fields. The product planning model provides enterprises integrated information from the market demand, technology as well as patents. At same time it’s easy to maintain and reproduce, expecting the model can contribute to practical product planning slightly.
Chang, Yu-Ming, and 張育銘. "Foresight Study on the strategies of Disaster Prevention and Protection Management." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/w8hmbp.
Повний текст джерела國立彰化師範大學
工業教育與技術學系
106
Under the global climate change, governments of all countries are challenged with greater and compounded disasters. The early warning of disasters is an important indicator to solve the casualties. The information transmission and quality of disaster warnings are the development targets of disaster prevention and rescue technologies. The main research purposes are the application and intergration of Japan's foresight study of Delphi and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Firstly, we indentified the key success factors of disaster prevention and rescue management from literature review. In addition, this study was also supplemented by patent analysis to explore the development of disaster prevention and rescue technologies in Taiwain. The study found that Taiwain's disaster prevention and policy of science and technology technology is given priority to with three dimensions of "Disaster response ", " Mitigation, and Disaster recovery ", and the last dimesion is " Preparation of Emergency Response ". According to these four major aspects, 12 indicators and 32 subitems items were concluded through Delphi and AHP, and the future development and strategy of disaster prevention and protection management were concluded.
鍾明英. "The Study of CSFs to Project Management and Foresight by Meta Analysis." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/67966809106492633630.
Повний текст джерела國立臺北商業技術學院
商學研究所
97
There is a period of time of project management development. However, the failure rate of project is still high. So there are many researchers made a lot of studies about critical success factors to project management. Because we still do not have a general conclusion, there are also a lot of studies and results. We tried to analyze the CSFs to project management by meta analysis. We collected papers from 8 SSCI Journals of MIS, which ale related to CSFs of project management, to conduct an integrated architecture of CSFs to project management. We also added collaboration theory as the new construct to the architecture to be an index of project management evaluation. We tried to complete the architecture of CSFs to project management evaluation to be a reference in further study. We also tried to provide a new think to practical operation to raise the success rate of project.
Wu, Chi-Hao, and 吳啟豪. "Research and Development technology foresight Strategy--A Case Study on I corporation department." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/21729156278125990999.
Повний текст джерела國立臺灣科技大學
高階科技研發碩士在職專班
105
For the preliminary plan of research and development technology, we put forward to integrate strategy layout with new technology development, market analysis, management strategy, combined with technological roadmap. In the Southeast Asian market, the arcade game market is facing many challenges, especially in these two directions: The face of the low-cost strategy in China, and local competition products to use richer picture effects, which would decline the market product. The problem is that pirates sell the copy screen or act as the middleman in the sales. In order to strengthen the market competitiveness of products, we would prevent these two problems by technical strategy which means to combine the technical and market aspects. We put forward two solutions to the low-cost strategy in China. First, adopt the localization of the market design to adjust the game suit for the local market culture and humanities. Because the original design game lock to markets in Taiwan and China, there are differences with Southeast Asia in segmented products and low-priced products. And the local design concept will get closer to meet the market players’ demand. Second, import the latest graphics API(Application Programming Interface), so that the competition of existing screen and comprehensive efficiency will beyond other competitors and can make full use of core technologies to save resources. There are two ways to explain the local pirates. First, pirates copy the original game design from the original manufacturer. Second, the pirates earn the difference through the way of the purchase of goods from China to sell to Southeast Asia, which also disrupt the market. We will use the latest protection mechanism design ARM TEE(Advanced RISC Machine Trusted Execution Environment) that protecting by digital signature and system technology IOT LTE(Internet of Things Long Term Evolution)that using GSM(Global System for Mobile Communications) system with the telecommunications business positioning function embedded as the game host, and RFID(Radio Frequency Identification )implanted into PCB(Printed circuit board) function, so that PCB is easy to manage, and product after-sales service and tracking is more convenient. The arcade game are booming in the new markets, we must to be well prepared to meet the market challenges. Although those undeveloped country have lower threshold in technology, many small manufacturers face vicious competition. Aimed at these two kinds of situation, we use the above strategies to solve the product problems in local market. This study also describes the new technology applied to the new ecological chain market.
Berze, Ottilia E. "Assessing foresight to advance management of complex global problems." Thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1828/10713.
Повний текст джерелаGraduate
Yang, Chi-Ying, and 楊奇穎. "A Systemic Fitness Study on the Construction of Foresight Model with Futures Research Methodology." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19317982730092351713.
Повний текст джерела國立中央大學
企業管理研究所
100
Recently, countries implement National Foresight Programes and invest in research and development to achieve competitive advantage and enhance social welfare. Meanwhile, organizations integrate multi-discipline foresight knowledge to help decision making and switch the focus from technology foresight to strategic foresight. This study aims to combine theories and concepts from strategic management, foresight and futures research methodology three fields. Corresponding to the level of methodology, related theories/concepts, stages/process and methods/steps are introduced. By applying scenario planning, markov chain and dynamic programming, a four-stage, thirty-one-process foresight model is constructed. Taken together, this study establishs a comprehensive and consistent foresight model. Based on vision, organizations determine its long-term future benchmarks and understand the transformation of key factors with interaction between driving forces, events and issues through the extention of markov process. Next, organizations can capture key factors and therefore sense trends to build alternative scenarios. Last, organizations may use dynamic programming or backcasting methods to draw out the most appropriate develepomental path and recognize the timing of alignment. All in all, this model points out how and when to systemically take futures research methods to solve specific problems and formulating strategies to shape and achieve preferable future states.
McGrath, Jason. "What if compulsory schooling was a 21st century invention? A counterfactual study of future schooling." Thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1423870.
Повний текст джерелаThe design of compulsory schooling is a construct of the Industrial Revolution that has changed little over time. Many educational experts now believe schooling and the systems around schooling need major overhaul. The purpose of this thesis was to examine how futures methodologies may be utilised to create new models of schooling. The overall research question, “What if compulsory education was a 21st century invention?” was framed as a counterfactual problem and explored through a set of five papers in this thesis by publication. The first peer-reviewed paper describes findings from the systematic reviews of empirical studies comparing traditional and alternative approaches to instruction or assessment, as part of examining the potential for compulsory schooling to be redesigned. Counterfactual thinking and foresight strategy were utilised to identify sixteen weak signals for future practice. The second paper, a peer-reviewed book chapter, conceptualises possible models for a future system of compulsory schooling arising from an analysis of contemporary catalysts for remodelling. A comparative analysis of cities that have been designed utilising sustainable urban ecology concepts provides a springboard for exploring the impact of changing employment, economic, technological and social change on future schooling models by utilising anticipation as a futures approach. The third, fourth (peer-reviewed) and fifth (peer-reviewed) papers share findings from a modified Delphi process that sought responses from an expert panel to the overall research question, including what might be changed or lost in relation to (a) the purpose of schooling, (b) the role of teacher and learner, (c) physical design, and (d) system design. A framework of 29 Future School Elements and five scenarios have been distilled to inform future schooling models. Respectively, the papers describe (i) the use of participant developed scenarios to extend the traditional objective of seeking consensus using Delphi processes, (ii) a futures approach to policy making, and (iii) the use of backcasting to establish preferred futures for schooling.
Osmond, Paul Lawrence, and 歐保羅. "Corporate foresight for the semiconductor downstream in the Post-Moore Era combining scenario analysis and TPP model: A TSMC case study." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/y38a8g.
Повний текст джерела元智大學
經營管理碩士班(國際企業學程)
107
With the area scaling of CMOS semiconductors reaching its physical limits, the entire electronics industry is facing the inevitable end of Moore’s Law. TSMC is currently one of just three semiconductor manufacturers, along with Intel and Samsung, that continue to push the physical limits at the leading edge of semiconductor technology development. At present, it is expected that TSMC will develop 1 nanometer technology around the year 2027, but beyond this time, there is great uncertainty as to the future development of semiconductor technologies and, in turn, the development of the electronic devices and emerging technologies which rely on semiconductors. Artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of things (IoT), blockchain including cryptocurrency mining, and automotive electronics in autonomous vehicles have been identified as possible growth drivers for the semiconductor industry over the next decade. Given the technology uncertainty associated with the end of Moore’s Law and uncertainty surrounding market demand, the commercial success of these emerging technologies is uncertain. The current case study utilizes scenario analysis to develop four plausible scenarios based on the key uncertainties facing TSMC in the year 2030. These key uncertainties include; 1) the presence, or lack thereof, of a manufacturing breakthrough in semiconductor manufacturing, and 2) the strength of the market for semiconductor products. Given the resulting four scenarios, a Technology Portfolio Planning (TPP) Delphi survey was administered for each scenario in which internal and external experts to TSMC assessed the importance and risk of the identified emerging technologies in the year 2030. The findings of the study are four-fold. The first finding: Scenario 1 (Digital Utopia) which combines a strong technology market with a technological breakthrough in semiconductor manufacturing has the most Premier Approach technologies and is the best-case scenario for TSMC. On the contrary, scenario 4 (Digital Desert) lacks a semiconductor breakthrough and envisions a weak downstream market and is the worst-case scenario for TSMC. The second finding: Artificial narrow intelligence (ANI), artificial general intelligence (AGI), collaborative-aware Internet of things (IoT), and public blockchain are reliant on a technology breakthrough to achieve their full market potential. Identity-related IoT and Ubiquitous IoT including smart city applications rely on a strong market for widespread adoption. Information-aggregation IoT and automotive electronics are both technology-driven and market-driven and will require a technology breakthrough and a strong market to achieve their greatest potential. The third finding: Automotive electronics have the highest average importance across the four scenarios and ANI provides the lowest level of risk among the emerging technologies analyzed. The fourth finding: A modified TPP model which integrates equilibrium lines in the original TPP model can describe investment group projects in a more detailed manner and is better at identifying managerial implications between various strategic investment opportunities. Finally, based on the results of the analysis, TSMC and other players in the ICT industry can be better prepared to deal with uncertain, but plausible future scenarios in the Post-Moore Era.
Shieh, Yung-Chu, and 謝詠筑. "A Study on the future development of Taiwan’s educational policy of normal colleges in a foresighted view." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/05743968832875007308.
Повний текст джерела國立臺北教育大學
教育政策與管理研究所
97
The purpose of this study is to investigate how the normal colleges in Taiwan confront the challenges of social transformation and demographic changes under the globalization and draw up the educational policy in a foresighted view for the future to foster their advantages for the competition and struggle to survive permanently. The research methods adopted are questionnaire surveys and interviews with experts .The questionnaire titled “on the future development of Taiwan’s educational policy of normal colleges in a foresighted view.” is designed by the author as the research tool. The objects of this survey are mainly experts, personnel of educational administration, administrative personnel of schools and personnel in the industry. According to the replies of the questionnaire, on one hand the research executing the statistic analysis of frequency, the comparative analysis based on the radar diagram of accumulation, and the analysis of regression. On the other hand, the author also interviewed the experts and the scholars in the relevant area to make the investigation more precise and profound. Combining the results of the questionnaire survey and the contents of the interviews,the findings of this research are as follows. 1)In terms of short-term trend,the government should encourage the colleges to develop their own characteristics and to maintain the managing performance and the quality by means of regular evaluation so that the colleges can obtain the greatest benefits. In addition, the courses must combine industry's practices and encourage students to obtain specialized certificates in order to strengthen student's ability of employment. 2)In terms of middle-term trend,the government should lift the limit allowing the students from mainland China to study in Taiwan and the foreign universities to set up independent branches to urge the local general universities to improve the quality due to the market-based competition. Moreover, the government should set up funds to help distinguish the colleges in the educational market and conduct the regional alliance or integration in plural ways for the schools to have the most appropriate scale in operation. 3)In terms of long-term trend,the normal colleges should adopt the legal person management and create an innovative method combining the plural development of life-long education in order to pursue the permanent operation. On the base of the conclusions this research draws, the purpose is to provide the normal colleges and educational administrations with some suggestions and also for the researchers who want to investigate this subject in a foresighted view as well.
Hui-Yi, Liu, and 劉憓嬑. "A Study of the Future Development of Taiwanese Educational Policy of Vocational Colleges in a Foresighted View." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/09669361318148440847.
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