Дисертації з теми "Expectational Model"
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1
Galbraith, J. W. "Modelling the formation of expectations." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.381848.
Повний текст джерела
2
Kræmer, John Ph D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "An expectation model of referring expressions." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62046.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 297-205).
This thesis introduces EMRE, an expectation-based model of referring expressions. EMRE is proposed as a model of non-syntactic dependencies - in particular, discourse-level semantic dependencies that bridge sentence gaps. These include but are not limited to anaphora (references to noun phrases in previous sentences) and coherence predicates such as causality, temporal ordering and resemblance -- two domains that have typically been treated as entirely distinct aspects of language. EMRE is a computational-level model, and is agnostic about any particular algorithms, cognitive faculties, or neurological substrates that might be applied to the problem of semantic reference. Instead, it describes reference as a computational problem framed in terms of expectation and inference, and describes a solution to the problem based on rational top-down expectations about the likely targets of referring expressions, and on bottom-up feature-based matching that occurs when a referring expression is encountered. EMRE is used to derive novel empirical predictions about how people will construe particular discourse constructions involving NP anaphora and coherence predicates. These predictions are tested in controlled behavioral experiments, in which participants read and answer questions about short texts. The results of these experiments are shown to be consistent with a model of reference as an expectation-based computational structure with different underlying rules than those governing syntactic processing.
by John Kræmer.
Ph.D.
3
Morman, Karen. "Teacher Expectations of a Literacy Coaching Model." ScholarWorks, 2016. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/2415.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Public school instructional coaching programs are designed to improve pedagogy via collaboration between teachers and coaches. However, the utility of literacy coaching is limited because teachers may lack understanding of the instructional coaching model. The purpose of this case study was to explore teachers' expectations of literacy coaching in order to enhance professional development and teacher-coach partnerships. Guided by Knowles adult learning theory which states that adults benefit from designing and understanding relevancy of learning, this study examined elementary teachers' perceptions of the coaching model. The guiding questions explored ways to optimize teacher professional growth through coaching. Four teachers who had partnered with literacy coaches were selected as participants. Qualitative data were collected from the participants through in-depth interviews and a researcher-created, open-ended questionnaire. The interviews allowed for probing questions, and the questionnaires provided time for detailed reflections on the part of participants. Qualitative data were analyzed to determine coding categories, and consistent with Knowles adult learning theory, prominent themes regarding self-direction and relevancy of learning emerged. Results indicated that the teachers believed literacy coaches to have a positive impact on their pedagogical growth, but current methods provided inadequate clarity about the coaching model to be relevant to teachers. Based on the results, professional development sessions were designed to support teacher-coach partnerships which will benefit students, teachers, coaches, and administrators by providing a collaborative foundation to promote student success.
4
Zumpe, Martin Kai. "Stabilité macroéconomique, apprentissage et politique monétaire : une approche comparative : modélisation DSGE versus modélisation multi-agents." Thesis, Bordeaux 4, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012BOR40022/document.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Cette thèse analyse le rôle de l’apprentissage dans deux cadres de modélisation distincts. Dans le cas dunouveau modèle canonique avec apprentissage adaptatif, les caractéristiques les plus marquantes des dynamiquesd’apprentissage concernent la capacité des règles de politique monétaire à assurer la convergencevers l’équilibre en anticipations rationnelles. Le mécanisme de transmission de la politique monétaire estcelui de l’effet de substitution associé au canal de la consommation. Dans le cas d’un modèle multi-agentsqui relâche des hypothèses restrictives du nouveau modèle canonique, tout en restant structurellementproche de celui-ci, les variables agrégées évoluent à bonne distance de cet équilibre, et on observe desdynamiques nettement différentes. La politique monétaire influence les variables agrégées de manièremarginale via l’effet de revenu du canal de la consommation. En présence d’un processus d’apprentissagesocial évolutionnaire, l’économie converge vers un faible niveau d’activité économique. L’introductiond’un processus caractérisé par le fait que les agents apprennent individuellement à l’aide de leurs modèlesmentaux atténue le caractère dépressif des dynamiques d’apprentissage. Ces différences entre les deuxcadres de modélisation démontrent la difficulté de généraliser les résultats du nouveau modèle canoniqueThis thesis analyses the role of learning in two different modelling frameworks. In the new canonicalmodel with adaptive learning, the most remarkable characteristics of the learning dynamics deal withthe capacity of monetary policy rules to guaranty convergence to the rational expectations equilibrium.The transmission mechanism of the monetary policy is based on the substitution effect associated to theconsumption channel. In the case of an agent-based model which relaxes some restrictive assumptionsof the new canonical model - but is endowed with a similar structure - aggregate variables evolve atsome distance from the rational expectations equilibrium. Monetary policy has a marginal impact onthe agregated variables via the wealth effect of the consumption channel. When agents learn accordingto an evolutionnary social learning process, the economy converges to regions of low economic activity.The introduction of a process where agents learn individually by using their mental models induces lessdepressive learning dynamics. These differences between the two modelling frameworks show that thegeneralisation of the results of the new canonical model is not easy to achieve
5
Creel, James Silas. "Intention is commitment with expectation." Texas A&M University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2313.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Modal logics with possible worlds semantics can be used to represent mental
states such as belief, goal, and intention, allowing one to formally describe the
rational behavior of agents. Agent??s beliefs and goals are typically represented in
these logics by primitive modal operators. However, the representation of agent??s
intentions varies greatly between theories. Some logics characterize intention as a
primitive operator, while others define intention in terms of more primitive constructs.
Taking the latter approach is a theory due to Philip Cohen and Hector
Levesque, under which intentions are a special form of commitment or persistent
goal. The theory has motivated theories of speech acts and joint intention
and innovative applications in multiagent systems and industrial robotics. However,
Munindar Singh shows the theory to have certain logical inconsistencies
and permit certain absurd scenarios. This thesis presents a modification of the
theory that preserves the desirable aspects of the original while addressing the
criticism of Singh. This is achieved by the introduction of an additional operator
describing the achievement of expectations, refined assumptions, and new defi-
nitions of intention. The modified theory gives a cogent account of the rational
balance between agents?? action and deliberation, and suggests the use of meansends
reasoning in agent implementations. A rule-based reasoner in Jess facilitates
evaluation of the predictiveness and intuitiveness of the theory, and provides a
prototypical agent based on the theory.
6
Qi, Yuan 1974. "Extending expectation propagation for graphical models." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/30215.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and Planning, Program in Media Arts and Sciences, 2005.Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-106).
Graphical models have been widely used in many applications, ranging from human behavior recognition to wireless signal detection. However, efficient inference and learning techniques for graphical models are needed to handle complex models, such as hybrid Bayesian networks. This thesis proposes extensions of expectation propagation, a powerful generalization of loopy belief propagation, to develop efficient Bayesian inference and learning algorithms for graphical models. The first two chapters of the thesis present inference algorithms for generative graphical models, and the next two propose learning algorithms for conditional graphical models. First, the thesis proposes a window-based EP smoothing algorithm for online estimation on hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks. For an application in wireless communications, window-based EP smoothing achieves estimation accuracy comparable to sequential Monte Carlo methods, but with less than one-tenth computational cost. Second, it develops a new method that combines tree-structured EP approximations with the junction tree for inference on loopy graphs. This new method saves computation and memory by propagating messages only locally to a subgraph when processing each edge in the entire graph. Using this local propagation scheme, this method is not only more accurate, but also faster than loopy belief propagation and structured variational methods. Third, it proposes predictive automatic relevance determination (ARD) to enhance classification accuracy in the presence of irrelevant features. ARD is a Bayesian technique for feature selection.
(cont.) The thesis discusses the overfitting problem associated with ARD, and proposes a method that optimizes the estimated predictive performance, instead of maximizing the model evidence. For a gene expression classification problem, predictive ARD outperforms previous methods, including traditional ARD as well as support vector machines combined with feature selection techniques. Finally, it presents Bayesian conditional random fields (BCRFs) for classifying interdependent and structured data, such as sequences, images or webs. BCRFs estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters and average prediction over this posterior to avoid overfitting. For the problems of frequently-asked-question labeling and of ink recognition, BCRFs achieve superior prediction accuracy over conditional random fields trained with maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori criteria.
by Yuan Qi.
Ph.D.
7
Pollio, G. "Empirical tests of the rational expectations hypothesis." Thesis, City University London, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.351632.
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8
Zhang, Xiaohua 1964. "Price expectations in perennial crop supply models." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/291531.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In the analysis of investment and production decisions for perennial crops, expectations play a critical role. This thesis studied three hypotheses about price expectations and reviewed five supply response models for perennial crops. An empirical model for the apple industry was developed to test alternative representations of expected prices. The naive and adaptive expectation model performed well with national data, whereas moving averages of price and the adaptive expectations model performed better with Washington data. To improve estimates of supply response for perennial crops, better data are needed to describe new plantings, removals, the age distribution of trees, production costs, and climatic conditions. Rapid technological change in the U.S. apple industry may cause producers to revise the way they form expected prices, encouraging them to use more historical information and paying more attention to projections of future demand. Rational expectations perspectives may become increasingly relevant.
9
Davis, J. G. "A rational expectations model of the Federal Republic of Germany." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.377979.
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10
Elhouar, Mikael. "Essays on interest rate theory." Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Finansiell Ekonomi (FI), 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-451.
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11
Al-Meshal, Khalid. "A rational expectations macroeconomic model of the Saudi Arabian economy." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.295816.
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12
Douglas, Heather. "Great Expectations: A Multi Theoretical Model of Social Entrepreneurship Startup." Thesis, Griffith University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/365810.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Organisations with a social purpose emerge as part of the social innovation process to address new needs or issues. They aim to achieve a social purpose rather than provide profit for their owners. Change processes are fluid. They may not be effective until positioned within a formal entity, so new organisations are needed for social innovation to be durable. New organisations offer a base, a point of contact to engage the outside world, a site to gather resources and harness the contribution of volunteers into a coordinated set of actions (Spear, 2000). They provide a site in which ideas can be tested, shaped, and structured into action (Mulgan, 2006a). They legitimise new concepts in the public arena, act as the conduit of ideas and give the idea a public voice (Barraket, 2001a). Small social purpose organisations operate as precariously vulnerable ventures in the social economy rather than the market economy. They are numerous, but the exact number is not known (Lyons, 2001), especially those that are at an early stage of development since they are difficult to locate. In excess of 440,000 are estimated to operate in Australia as small nonprofit ventures with no employees (Productivity Commission, 2010). An unknown number function as small commercial ventures with no paid staff. This is a large set of organisations that are a valuable part of civil society, but they are largely unrecognised in the literature and are not well researched. Little is known about how they start or how they organise to deliver their goods and services.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
Full Text
13
Huang, Tzu-Kuo. "Exploiting Non-Sequence Data in Dynamic Model Learning." Research Showcase @ CMU, 2013. http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/561.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Virtually all methods of learning dynamic models from data start from the same basic assumption: that the learning algorithm will be provided with a single or multiple sequences of data generated from the dynamic model. However, in quite a few modern time series modeling tasks, the collection of reliable time series data turns out to be a major challenge, due to either slow progression of the dynamic process of interest, or inaccessibility of repetitive measurements of the same dynamic process over time. In most of those situations, however, we observe that it is easier to collect a large amount of non-sequence samples, or random snapshots of the dynamic process of interest without time information. This thesis aims to exploit such non-sequence data in learning a few widely used dynamic models, including fully observable, linear and nonlinear models as well as Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). For fully observable models, we point out several issues on model identifiability when learning from non-sequence data, and develop EM-type learning algorithms based on maximizing approximate likelihood. We also consider the setting where a small amount of sequence data are available in addition to non-sequence data, and propose a novel penalized least square approach that uses non-sequence data to regularize the model. For HMMs, we draw inspiration from recent advances in spectral learning of latent variable models and propose spectral algorithms that provably recover the model parameters, under reasonable assumptions on the generative process of non-sequence data and the true model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first formal guarantee on learning dynamic models from non-sequence data. We also consider the case where little sequence data are available, and propose learning algorithms that, as in the fully observable case, use non-sequence data to provide regularization, but does so in combination with spectral methods. Experiments on synthetic data and several real data sets, including gene expression and cell image time series, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods. In the last part of the thesis we return to the usual setting of learning from sequence data, and consider learning bi-clustered vector auto-regressive models, whose transition matrix is both sparse, revealing significant interactions among variables, and bi-clustered, identifying groups of variables that have similar interactions with other variables. Such structures may aid other learning tasks in the same domain that have abundant non-sequence data by providing better regularization in our proposed non-sequence methods.
14
Kalev, Petko S. "Rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates." Monash University, Dept. of Econometrics and Business Statistics, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/8700.
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15
Walker, Paul. "Optimal control and consistent expectations on the Oxford Economic Forcasting Model." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.243710.
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16
Kratochvíl, Jakub. "Midterm elections 2010 - Impact of electorate expectations on midterm." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-74554.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This thesis focuses on analysis of the importance of electorate expectations for voter behavior in mid-term elections. We will modify the traditional Alesina-Rosenthal model to include electorate expectations. Using this new model, we will show that Obama's loss in the 2010 mid-term elections was caused by high electorate expectations which were created during the campaign for Presidency in 2008. With the help of our framework, we will demonstrate that electorate expectations played a crucial role in several historical mid-term elections.
17
Ozyoruk, Nilufer. "A Computational Model Of Memory Processes In The Expectation-violation Effect." Master's thesis, METU, 2005. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12605821/index.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This thesis focuses on modeling Expectation-Violation Effect, which is the superior recall of weakly associated pairs of words over strongly associated pairs. The goal of this thesis is to provide an exploratory computational model. A virtual experiment is conducted based on the datasets used in the psychological experiment by Amster et al. (1992). The computational modeling of this phenomenon is carried in the medium of ACT-R cognitive architecture.
18
Washtell, Justin Robert. "Towards a purely distributional model of meaning : distance, expectation, and composition." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.582102.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Preamble IV Abstract ; This thesis explores the problem of inferring meaning from un-annotated language: arguably a key problem in the pursuit of strong AI. We take pains to tackle the problem from the ground up, re-examining ingrained devices such as eo-occurrence and wordspace, in search of insights into their known limitations. We pay particular attention to the pervasive problem of the poverty-of-the-stimulus, and how this can be tackled without sacrificing specificity. All of the while we adhere to a purely distributional paradigm. Our work results in three main contributions to the field: Firstly, taking a cue from statistical biogerography, we explore and develop distance-based (windowless) association measures which re-interpret the notion of eo-occurrence introduced by Harris (1954). While there has been some experimentation with distance-based devices in the past, we prove though both intrinsic analyses and psycholinguistic evaluations that they provide a particularly robust foundation for distributional analy,ses. Secondly, taking our cue from semiotics, we investigate an alternative vector space model of words-in-context which derives from the notion of reader expectation. The model combines the advantages of spaces built from high-order eo- occurrence vectors (intuitive geometric interpretations, and dense generalising vectors), with those of arbitrarily sophisticated language models (sensitivity to high- arity language structure, and the ability to exploit diverse heterogeneous feature- " sets). We test a simple implementation in a word sense disambiguation setting with very encouraging results, showing - importantly - that such models represent plausible accounts of meaning. Thirdly, we show how the resultant expectation vectors lead to an implicit compositional account of meaning. While the implementation arises trivially from the vectors, our experiments allude to some surprisingly sophisticated behaviour which indicates a sensitivity to both structural and lexical aspects of phrases. During the course of these investigations we make several subordinate contributions to the field. Among these are a formulation of distance-based predictive language models, and particularly robust vector-similarity measures based on fuzzy rough sets.
19
Perez, Alycia L. Usher. "Gendered Expectations of Leaders and the Androgyny of Leadership." University of Akron / OhioLINK, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1354217637.
Повний текст джерела
20
Wang, Juan. "Estimation of individual treatment effect via Gaussian mixture model." HKBU Institutional Repository, 2020. https://repository.hkbu.edu.hk/etd_oa/839.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In this thesis, we investigate the estimation problem of treatment effect from Bayesian perspective through which one can first obtain the posterior distribution of unobserved potential outcome from observed data, and then obtain the posterior distribution of treatment effect. We mainly consider how to represent a joint distribution of two potential outcomes - one from treated group and another from control group, which can give us an indirect impression of correlation, since the estimation of treatment effect depends on correlation between two potential outcomes. The first part of this thesis illustrates the effectiveness of adapting Gaussian mixture models in solving the treatment effect problem. We apply the mixture models - Gaussian Mixture Regression (GMR) and Gaussian Mixture Linear Regression (GMLR)- as a potentially simple and powerful tool to investigate the joint distribution of two potential outcomes. For GMR, we consider a joint distribution of the covariate and two potential outcomes. For GMLR, we consider a joint distribution of two potential outcomes, which linearly depend on covariate. Through developing an EM algorithm for GMLR, we find that GMR and GMLR are effective in estimating means and variances, but they are not effective in capturing correlation between two potential outcomes. In the second part of this thesis, GMLR is modified to capture unobserved covariance structure (correlation between outcomes) that can be explained by latent variables introduced through making an important model assumption. We propose a much more efficient Pre-Post EM Algorithm to implement our proposed GMLR model with unobserved covariance structure in practice. Simulation studies show that Pre-Post EM Algorithm performs well not only in estimating means and variances, but also in estimating covariance.
21
Reissl, Severin [Verfasser]. "Expectations Formation in Macroeconomic Agent-based Models / Severin Reissl." Bielefeld : Universitätsbibliothek Bielefeld, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1226933882/34.
Повний текст джерела
22
TETTAMANZI, MICHELE. "EXPECTATIONS IN MACROECONOMICS: PERSPECTIVES, LABORATORY EXPERIMENTS AND AB MODELS." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/36156.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
La presente tesi studia le aspettative in macroeconomia contribuendo alla letteratura esistente sia indagando circa il meccanismo di formazione delle aspettative, sia analizzando come le aspettative a razionalità limitata influenzino la dinamica economica.
Nel primo capitolo viene presentato un esperimento nel quale ai soggetti viene chiesto di predire il valore futuro dell'inflazione: a seconda del trattamento, i soggetti possono venire esposti ad un segnale, che mira a stabilizzare l'economia, che fungendo quindi da indicazione prospettica (Forward Guidance). I risultati vengono poi studiati sottolineando il meccanismo di formazione delle aspettative soprattutto in funzione della credibilità del segnale; inoltre viene studiata l'efficacia dello strumento di politica monetaria nella stabilizzazione del sistema economico: si evidenzia come un segnale informativo permetta una sensibile stabilizzazione dell'economia, prevenendo spirali deflazionistiche.
Nel secondo capitolo viene sviluppato un modello ad agenti il quale incorpora un meccanismo di formazione delle aspettative a razionalità limitata, derivato da esperimenti precedenti. Inoltre, grazie ad un peculiare processo di aggregazione, viene derivato un modello analiticamente trattabile che permette di studiare il meccanismo di trasmissione di uno shock, isolando gli effetti dovuti all'eterogeneità fra gli agenti e alle aspettative: entrambi gli effetti sono considerevoli ed aiutano nello spiegare la dinamica economica.The present dissertation analyses expectations in macroeconomics, contributing to the existing literature both studying the expectation formation process, and inquiring how economic dynamic is influenced by boundedly rational expectations. The first chapter presents a learn to forecast experiment in which subject are asked to form expectation regarding the future value of inflation: depending on the treatment, subjects might be exposed to a signal, which possibly aim at stabilizing economy, mimicking the non conventional monetary policy instrument called Delphic Forward Guidance. The collected data are studied trying to recover the underlying expectation formation process highlighting especially the role of credibility of the signal; moreover from the data emerges that informative Forward Guidance helps in stabilizing economy, drastically reducing the probability of deflationary spirals. The second chapter develops an agent-based model, encapsulating a boundedly rational expectation formation process, which had been extrapolated in previous experiments. Moreover benefiting from a specific aggregation procedure, we derive a model characterized by high analytical tractability, allowing hence to study the transmission mechanisms of a shock by insulating the effects due to the heterogeneity among agents and due to expectations: both the effects are sizable and help in understanding the dynamics of the economic system.
23
TETTAMANZI, MICHELE. "EXPECTATIONS IN MACROECONOMICS: PERSPECTIVES, LABORATORY EXPERIMENTS AND AB MODELS." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/36156.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
La presente tesi studia le aspettative in macroeconomia contribuendo alla letteratura esistente sia indagando circa il meccanismo di formazione delle aspettative, sia analizzando come le aspettative a razionalità limitata influenzino la dinamica economica.
Nel primo capitolo viene presentato un esperimento nel quale ai soggetti viene chiesto di predire il valore futuro dell'inflazione: a seconda del trattamento, i soggetti possono venire esposti ad un segnale, che mira a stabilizzare l'economia, che fungendo quindi da indicazione prospettica (Forward Guidance). I risultati vengono poi studiati sottolineando il meccanismo di formazione delle aspettative soprattutto in funzione della credibilità del segnale; inoltre viene studiata l'efficacia dello strumento di politica monetaria nella stabilizzazione del sistema economico: si evidenzia come un segnale informativo permetta una sensibile stabilizzazione dell'economia, prevenendo spirali deflazionistiche.
Nel secondo capitolo viene sviluppato un modello ad agenti il quale incorpora un meccanismo di formazione delle aspettative a razionalità limitata, derivato da esperimenti precedenti. Inoltre, grazie ad un peculiare processo di aggregazione, viene derivato un modello analiticamente trattabile che permette di studiare il meccanismo di trasmissione di uno shock, isolando gli effetti dovuti all'eterogeneità fra gli agenti e alle aspettative: entrambi gli effetti sono considerevoli ed aiutano nello spiegare la dinamica economica.The present dissertation analyses expectations in macroeconomics, contributing to the existing literature both studying the expectation formation process, and inquiring how economic dynamic is influenced by boundedly rational expectations. The first chapter presents a learn to forecast experiment in which subject are asked to form expectation regarding the future value of inflation: depending on the treatment, subjects might be exposed to a signal, which possibly aim at stabilizing economy, mimicking the non conventional monetary policy instrument called Delphic Forward Guidance. The collected data are studied trying to recover the underlying expectation formation process highlighting especially the role of credibility of the signal; moreover from the data emerges that informative Forward Guidance helps in stabilizing economy, drastically reducing the probability of deflationary spirals. The second chapter develops an agent-based model, encapsulating a boundedly rational expectation formation process, which had been extrapolated in previous experiments. Moreover benefiting from a specific aggregation procedure, we derive a model characterized by high analytical tractability, allowing hence to study the transmission mechanisms of a shock by insulating the effects due to the heterogeneity among agents and due to expectations: both the effects are sizable and help in understanding the dynamics of the economic system.
24
Fisher, Paul Gregory. "Simulation and control techniques for nonlinear rational expectation models." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1990. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106494/.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This thesis presents a comprehensive set of techniques for solving, simulating, analysing and controlling large scale, nonlinear, econometric models that contain rational expectations of future dated variables. These expectations are generally treated as model consistent, whereby the expectation is set to the deterministic projection of the model. Solutions to such models are distinguished from those of conventional models by the fact that they are not recursive in time. The outcome for the current period depends on the expected outcome for future periods as well as past periods. This property means that all of the basic numerical procedures need to be altered. We consider the following topics: solution algorithms for the two—point boundary value problem; terminal conditions, uniqueness and stability; experimental design and stochastic simulation; model forms, solution modes and historical tracking; control methods including optimal control. We find that suitable procedures allow us to undertake all of the experiments usually conducted with conventional models. Each topic is illustrated by application to three large scale models of the United Kingdom economy which contain rational expectations terms. Only one of these models is constructed following the new-classical paradigm and hence their comparative properties revealed by our experiments are of some interest.
25
Majewsky, Stefan. "Training of Hidden Markov models as an instance of the expectation maximization algorithm." Bachelor's thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-226903.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In Natural Language Processing (NLP), speech and text are parsed and generated with language models and parser models, and translated with translation models. Each model contains a set of numerical parameters which are found by applying a suitable training algorithm to a set of training data.
Many such training algorithms are instances of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. In [BSV15], a generic EM algorithm for NLP is described. This work presents a particular speech model, the Hidden Markov model, and its standard training algorithm, the Baum-Welch algorithm. It is then shown that the Baum-Welch algorithm is an instance of the generic EM algorithm introduced by [BSV15], from which follows that all statements about the generic EM algorithm also apply to the Baum-Welch algorithm, especially its correctness and convergence properties.
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Jones, Bryan. "The effects of model familiarity on golf drive performance and mastery expectations." Thesis, Manchester Metropolitan University, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.551120.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The present investigation examined the effects of model familiarity on golf drive performance and mastery expectations. Bandura (1997) suggested that self modelling enhanced performance through the mediational effect of self efficacy. This theoretical prediction has been supported in contemporary research (Clarke & Ste-Marie, 2007; Ram & McCullagh, 2003) Therefore, in the present investigation, a best attempt self model group observing self-adaptive behaviour (BASM) was compared to an expert model group (EM) and a no model group. Based on Bandura's prediction, the BASM group would demonstrate elevated mastery expectations compared to the other groups, and subsequently demonstrate superior performance, as measured by horizontal distance and ratings of form (examined using the golf drive observation list (GDOL)). Using intermediate standard golfers, and following five treatment sessions and a retention test ten days following the end of the treatment the data revealed a significant group main effect for mastery expectations. Pairwise comparisons revealed differences between the BASM and control group throughout the whole treatment (p<0.05) and the BASM and the EM group in the [mal treatment session (p<0.05) whereby the BASM group had higher measures of mastery expectations. However, there were no significant differences observed for horizontal distance. There were significant differences for ratings of form whereby the BASM and EM groups reported higher form scores than the controL This provides limited support for Bandura's prediction as the enhanced mastery expectations did not lead to a similar concomitant change in golf drive performance. This is explained using Scully and Newell's (1985) visual perceptual perspective; in particular its theoretical prediction that only learners in the co-ordination phase of learning would benefit from observational learning.
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Grant, Angelia Lee. "Three essays on the US business cycle, expectations formation and model comparison." Phd thesis, Canberra, ACT : The Australian National University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/110978.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This thesis contributes to the vast literature on understanding the disturbances that cause recessions, testing the importance of the assumption of rational expectations in macroeconomic models, and assessing model selection criteria. The main objective is to assess structural instabilities in macroeconomic models and to develop a new econometric methodology to compare different assumptions regarding expectations formation. Chapter 2 examines the role of oil price, demand, supply and monetary policy shocks during the 2001 US slowdown and Great Recession. It replicates the structural vector autoregression (VAR) of Peersman (2005) and extends it with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. Significant time variation is found in some impulse responses, with evidence that the constant coefficients VAR is erroneously representing structural instabilities as shocks. All models find that a combination of shocks caused the 2001 slowdown and Great Recession, but the role of individual shocks differs across models. Chapter 3 assesses the assumption of rational expectations versus adaptive learning in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the US economy. Using the framework in Smets and Wouters (2007) and Slobodyan and Wouters (2012), it finds that expectations implied by the rational expectations model are comparable to the adaptive learning models for actual and survey data on consumption and inflation. This chapter also formally assesses the overall fit of the model with different assumptions regarding expectations formation using the deviance information criterion (DIC), which is not commonly used to compare DSGE models. It finds that the rational expectations model is comparable to the adaptive learning models according to this criterion. Chapter 4 proposes fast algorithms for computing the DIC based on the integrated likelihood for a variety of high-dimensional latent variable models. The DIC has been a widely used Bayesian model comparison criterion since Spiegelhalter et al. (2002) introduced the concept and Celeux et al. (2006) introduced a number of alternative definitions for latent variable models. However, recent studies have cautioned against the use of some of these variants. While the DIC computed using the integrated likelihood seems to perform well, it is rarely used in practice due to computational burden. This chapter shows that the DICs based on the integrated likelihoods have much smaller numerical standard errors compared to the other DICs.
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Sutton, Gigi. "An integrated model of job satisfaction : expectations, experiences and psychological contract violation." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2000.
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Wenzelburger, Jan. "Learning in economic systems with expectations feedback." Berlin Heidelberg New York Springer, 2006. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=2668403&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm.
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Jackson, Aaron L. "Near-rational behavior in New Keynesian models /." view abstract or download file of text, 2002. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p3061948.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2002.Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 110-113). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.
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Ma, Jun. "Attribution, Expectation, and Recovery: An Integrated Model of Service Failure and Recovery." Kent State University / OhioLINK, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1186171198.
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Leone, Eden. "Rhetorical Inquiry: Feminist Argumentative Modes and Expectations in Detective Fiction." Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1429225599.
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Man, Chung Shun, and Mark Peterson. "How does inflation expectation explain the undershooting of inflation target in Japan? : Time-series analysis within the frame of hybrid Philips curve model." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Nationalekonomi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-44199.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Inflation target was introduced in 2013 in Japan. The goal was to maintain price stability and sustainable inflation rate that is conducive to optimal consumption and investment decisions. However, Japanese inflation rate has been consistently below the target rate. We want to examine why the failure happens in such a big economy. This thesis focuses on inflation expectation as the main factor that leads to unanchored inflation. Inflation expectation can be distinguished into adaptive and rational expectation. To analyse inflation expectation, we regress inflation on four relevant variables: forecasted inflation, lagged inflation, economic slack and import inflation. Our goal is to identify the significance of forecasted inflation and lagged inflation, which are the main variables, to determine the characteristics of the two types of inflation expectation. This time-series analysis is on a monthly basis covering the period between 2013 and 2018. The results show that agents are near-rational rather than rational, meaning that they tend to overweigh the costs of inflation. Also, it is shown that they have minor but significant backward-looking tendency and believe that past inflation determines the current inflation. Hence, inflation expectation could give some useful insights into unanchored inflation.
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Gregorio, Ruben. "Breaking the Customer Code : A model to Translate Customer Expectations into Specification Limits." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Mechanical Engineering, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-56652.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Today, firms compete with services rather than goods. Large service organizations are beginning to use Six Sigma as continuous improvement tool. An important part of the Six Sigma methodology is the calculation of number of defects in the process, i.e. points outside the specification limits. Unlike goods quality, which can be measured objectively by number of defects, in service goods the setting up of specification limits is a complicated issue because it is marked by the use and expectations among the different customers. As Six Sigma was originally created for manufacturing, this crucial fact is not contemplated in the Six-Sigma roadmap Define- Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control (DMAIC).
The aim of this thesis is to develop a new model to help the Service Division, Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB to set the specification limits according to the customer expectations.
A review of relevant literature is used to develop a new integrated model with ideas from the Kano model, SERVQUAL, Taguchi loss function, Importance Performance Analysis (IPA) and a new model, the ”Trade-Off Importance”. A survey was carried out for 18 external customers and internal stakeholders.
The model has demonstrated its robustness and credibility to set the specification limits. Additionally it is a very powerful tool to set the strategic directions and for service quality measurement. As far as we know, this thesis is the first attempt to create a roadmap to set the specification limits in services. Researchers should find a proposed model to fill the research gap. From a managerial standpoint, the practical benefits in Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB, suggest a new way of communicating to customers.
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Ekiz, Funda. "Cagan Type Rational Expectations Model on Time Scales with Their Applications to Economics." TopSCHOLAR®, 2011. http://digitalcommons.wku.edu/theses/1126.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Rational expectations provide people or economic agents making future decision with available information and past experiences. The first approach to the idea of rational expectations was given approximately fifty years ago by John F. Muth. Many models in economics have been studied using the rational expectations idea. The most familiar one among them is the rational expectations version of the Cagans hyperination model where the expectation for tomorrow is formed using all the information available today. This model was reinterpreted by Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace in 1973. After that time, many solution techniques were suggested to solve the Cagan type rational expectations (CTRE) model. Some economists such as Muth [13], Taylor [26] and Shiller [27] consider the solutions admitting an infinite moving-average representation. Blanchard and Kahn [28] find solutions by using a recursive procedure. A general characterization of the solution was obtained using the martingale approach by Broze, Gourieroux and Szafarz in [22], [23]. We choose to study martingale solution of CTRE model. This thesis is comprised of five chapters where the main aim is to study the CTRE model on isolated time scales.
Most of the models studied in economics are continuous or discrete. Discrete models are more preferable by economists since they give more meaningful and accurate results. Discrete models only contain uniform time domains. Time scale calculus enables us to study on m-periodic time domains as well as non periodic time domains. In the first chapter, we give basics of time scales calculus and stochastic calculus. The second chapter is the brief introduction to rational expectations and the CTRE model. Moreover, many other solution techniques are examined in this chapter. After we introduce the necessary background, in the third chapter we construct the CTRE Model on isolated time scales. Then we give the general solution of this model in terms of martingales. We continue our work with defining the linear system and higher order CTRE on isolated time scales. We use Putzer Algorithm to solve the system of the CTRE Model. Then, we examine the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the CTRE model. In the fourth chapter, we apply our solution algorithm developed in the previous chapter to models in Finance and stochastic growth models in Economics.
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Flamenbaum, Jaime. "A critique of the biomedical model : the clash between physician and patient expectations." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape8/PQDD_0017/MQ55056.pdf.
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Spellman, Gordon Kevin. "The expectations clock : a model for leadership, reversion, and over- and under-reaction." Thesis, Durham University, 2009. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/2081/.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The expectations clock illustrates how expectations of future performance are driven by human biases tied to current and past changes in relative performance. The clock is a model of reversion and over- and under- reaction. Depending on initial expectations, disruptive events (or change events) may have different relationships with future performance. Leadership succession is utilized as a proxy for disruption and over- and under-reaction refer to reactions to negative circumstances. The interaction of expectations and disruption may be associated with a counterintuitive inverse relationship with future relative performance. When expectations are low, disruption may be related to over-reaction and when expectations are high disruption may reduce under-reaction. This occurs if expectations cycle, much like a clock, since the level of expectations is related to the level of inertia. Expectations appear to revert; although, the expectations clock exhibits "stickiness” at key points. Stickiness refers to how top and bottom performing institutions tend to rotate between improving and deteriorating performance but not cross over between the bottom and top halves, respectively. Disruption (or lack of disruption) at key points may influence reversion and stickiness. Contrary to prior studies, this research finds no relationship between initial expectations and the succession event itself.
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Thomas, David Gareth. "Expectations and evolutionary change in a catastrophe investment model for British manufacturing industry." Thesis, University of Hertfordshire, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.363506.
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Wang, Hui. "An empirical analysis of household asset allocation based on a rational expectations model /." The Ohio State University, 1997. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1487948807587516.
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Zhao, Mingjun. "Essays on model uncertainty in macroeconomics." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1153244452.
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Oliveira, Fabio Andrade Savino de. "Modeling expectations for national public securities: an application to models VAR." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2012. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=7867.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
nÃo hÃConsidering the timing with which the market and the economic and financial analysts require information about the evolution of the assets, this work provides subsidies to apply time series models to anticipate the return of Brazilian government bonds. Vector auto-regressive models are developed and estimated for the main assets in government securities market in 2011 and forecasts suggest that the government bonds indexed to the IPCA and fixed-rate bonds are more promising in return that the government securities post-fixed , a fact consistent with the current context of a world economy that emerges from a crisis scenario.
Considerando a tempestividade com a qual o mercado e os analistas econÃmico-financeiros requerem as informaÃÃes sobre a evoluÃÃo dos ativos, este trabalho fornece subsÃdios ao aplicar modelos de sÃries temporais, para antecipar os retornos de tÃtulos pÃblicos brasileiros. Modelos vetoriais auto-regressivos sÃo desenvolvidos e estimados para os principais tÃtulos pÃblicos ativos no mercado em 2011 e as previsÃes sugerem que os tÃtulos pÃblicos indexados ao IPCA e os tÃtulos pÃblicos prÃ-fixados sÃo mais promissores em rentabilidade que os tÃtulos pÃblicos pÃs-fixados. Este fato à coerente ao contexto atual de uma economia mundial que emerge de um cenÃrio de crise.
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Capolongo, Angela. "Essays on Inflation: Expectations, Forecasting and Markups." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/312258.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This manuscript is composed of three chapters.In the first chapter, I analyze the impact of key European Central Bank’s unconventional monetary policy announcements on inflation expectations, measured by Euro Area five-year Inflation Linked Swap rates five years ahead, since the aftermath of the crisis. I control for market liquidity and uncertainty measures, change in oil price shock and macroeconomic news. The results show that the impact of the European Central Bank’s announcements has been positive during the period under observation. Along the line of the expansionary monetary policy measures implemented, the agents have been revising upwards their long term inflation expectations. This means that the unconventional monetary policy measures were effective. In the second chapter, co-authored with Claudia Pacella, we construct a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with three layers of information: the key drivers of inflation, cross-country dynamic interactions, and country-specific variables. The model provides good forecasting accuracy with respect to the popular benchmarks used in the literature. We perform a step-by-step analysis to shed light on which layer of information is more crucial for accurately forecasting euro area inflation. Our empirical analysis reveals the importance of including the key drivers of inflation and taking into account the multi-country dimension of the euro area. The results show that the complete model performs better overall in forecasting inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food over the medium-term. We use the model to establish stylized facts on the euro area and cross-country heterogeneity over the business cycle. In the third chapter, using confidential firm-level data from the National Bank of Belgium, I document the heterogeneous response of firms’ markups to the 2008 financial crisis. Overall, markups increased in the aftermath of the crisis and the effect was larger for highly financially constrained firms. I show that standard heterogeneous-firm models, featuring monopolistic competition and variable markups, are unable to replicate these patterns. I then introduce endogenous demand shifters which respond to firm investment in market share (e.g. quality). I show that the interaction of an increase in the cost of procuring inputs combined with an endogenous quality downgrading can rationalize the observed changes in firm-level markups.Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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Dargahi, Hassan. "A rational expectations macroeconomic model of an oil-exporting-developing economy : case of Iran." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 1994. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.387292.
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Scarbecz, Mark. "Parental influence on the educational expectations of high school students: A role identity model." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/185474.
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Status attainment research has shown that there is a positive association between the educational expectations of parents and their children. Survey data from a nationwide sample of families was used to examine the effects of social structural conditions and patterns of family interaction on parent-child agreement on educational expectations, an indicator of parents' ability to influence their child's expectations. Agreement was hypothesized to be greatest in white families, in families where parents had high levels of education, and among parents and daughters. Empirical results showed that girls were more likely than boys to have expectations above those of their parents. Parents with at least four years of college were more likely to agree than less educated parents. Minority adolescents were also less likely to agree; this effect was not explained by racial differences in parents' education. The quantity and quality of parental defining behaviors, or effort, were also expected to be positively related to agreement. Concrete forms of parental effort fulfilled these expectations. The greater efforts of well educated parents and parents of daughters helped to explain gender and class differences in agreement. Despite minority parents' greater efforts, their children remained less likely to agree. Alienated adolescents were predicted to be more likely to have expectations below those of their parents. Adolescents whose extra-familial roles were more salient than their familial roles were also expected to be less likely to agree. Both hypotheses were supported. This study contributes to status attainment research by showing how social psychological and social structural factors jointly affect a crucial link in the process: parent-child agreement on educational expectations. Future research should seek to disentangle the effects of these processes, and explain why persistent race differences in agreement exist.
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Gerotto, Luca <1990>. "Precautionary savings and expectations of Italian households during the crisis: an agent-based model." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/5012.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This thesis studies the behavior of Italian households towards saving during the recent crisis. Starting from the analysis of microdata (“Indagine sui bilanci delle famiglie Italiane”, a survey of Banca d'Italia) and households confidence indexes elaborated by ISTAT, exploiting the literature on precautionary savings and relevant models, this thesis tries to interpret households behaviour.
Following an "epidemiological" model developed by Carroll, expectations are assumed to spread out like a virus, with each individual having a given probability of being "infected" by the last professional forecast of a given macroeconomic indicator (e.g. inflation or unemployment rate) or maintaining his own expectation. We develop a similar agent-based model and show that heterogeneity in educational level, which is related to an heterogeneity in the "infection probaibility", could help to explain, without renouncing to the assumption of rationality, why different class of households behaved differently at the very beginning of the crisis, with the better educated and the richer appearing to be "more rational" than the less educated or the poorer.
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Manik, Hasiando Ginsar. "Essays on monetary and macroprudential policies with different models of expectation." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2016. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/6824/.
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This thesis evaluates the design of monetary and macroprudential policies. Different models of expectation are examined to get a comprehensive understanding about the work of monetary and macroprudential policies. It is begun by assuming agents are boundedly rational under Recursive Least Square (RLS) and Stochastic Gradient (SG) learning, followed by fully rational agents under rational expectation (RE). When agents follow RLS learning, both determinacy and E-stability criteria are required to find preferred policies. We focus on the effect of habit in consumption in the design of preferred policies. We found the presence of habit in consumption enlarges both determinacy and E-stability region. The same methodology is then used in another model that features housing market and financial constraint. The result showed that a response to the growth of housing prices via the LTV rule may increase determinacy and E-stability. We also conduct a refinement in the design of preferred economic policies by incorporating SG-stability criteria, in addition to determinacy and E-stability. The result showed that central bank’s task gets more difficult since the Taylor Principle is insufficient to ensure a robust learnability of REE. In other works, we deviate from the assumption of boundedly rational agents and consider fully rational agents (RE). We examine the issue of monetary policy, banks’ lending decisions and business cycles in Indonesia. This thesis completes its analysis by evaluating the role of news in the formation of agents’ expectations.
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Chung, Sai-ho. "Statistical models for catch-at-length data with birth cohort information." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2005. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B39849089.
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Zhou, Y. (Yunhui). "An empirical examination of customer’s continuance intention of SaaS based on expectation confirmation model." Master's thesis, University of Oulu, 2017. http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-201711083076.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In current high performance networked cloud computing environment, Software as a Service (SaaS) originates as an efficient substitute to on-promise software with many advantages. While the current statue is after some period of using, SaaS adopters switch back to on-promise software. However, SaaS adopters’ continuance using on SaaS is a major consequence for SaaS provider’s profitability. Motivated by this, in this thesis the objective is to study what factors influence SaaS adopters’ decision on continue (or discontinue) adoption of SaaS.
Expectation Confirmation Model (ECM) has been a frequently used model to study Information system (IS) continuance since the early 2000s, and researchers built extended ECM based on different characteristics of different IS contexts to study IS continuance. Hence, the purpose of this thesis is to propose an extended ECM to study SaaS continuance.
In this thesis, SaaS providers’ dissatisfying factors were studied in order to build extended ECM. Through studying the current dissatisfying state of SaaS, system quality, service quality and trust were found are the possible factors prevent customers’ continuance usage towards SaaS. In order to add these 3 new constructs into legacy ECM, systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted to explore the existing studies in Information System continuance based on ECM. Through the implications from SLR, the extended model (research model) was designed.
The empirical research was carried out through a case under RecRight Oy, which is a SaaS company base in Helsinki, Finland. 186 online responses were collected within RecRight’s worldwide client companies in Helsinki in June 2017. The results suggest that SaaS adopters’ continuance intention is significantly associated with perceived usefulness, confirmation, satisfaction, system quality and service quality. Contrary to the assumption and past findings, trust does not directly contribute to SaaS continuance intention.
In conclusion, the designed research model in this thesis contributes to developing and empirically testing SaaS continuance intention. This model will be helpful for researchers to further study SaaS continuance.
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Lindström, Kevin. "Fault Clustering With Unsupervised Learning Using a Modified Gaussian Mixture Model and Expectation Maximization." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Fordonssystem, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-176535.
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When a fault is detected in the engine, the check engine light will come on. After that, it is often up to the mechanic to diagnose the engine fault. Manual fault classification by a mechanic can be time-consuming and expensive. Recent technological advancements have granted us immense computing power, which can be utilized to diagnose faults using data-driven classifiers. Data-driven classifiers generally require a lot of training data to be able to accurately diagnose system faults by comparing sensor data to training data because labeled training data is required for a wide variety of different realizations of the same faults. In this study an algorithm is proposed that does not rely on labeled training data, instead the proposed algorithm clusters similar fault data together by combining an engine model and unsupervised learning in the form of a modified Gaussian mixture model using Expectation Maximization. If one or more of the fault scenarios in a cluster is later diagnosed, the rest of the data in the same cluster is likely to have the same diagnosis. The modified Gaussian mixture model proposed in this study takes into account that residual data, in some cases including the case in this study when the data is from an internal combustion engine, seem to diverge from the nominal case (data points near the origin) along a linear trajectory as the fault size increases. This is taken into account by modeling the clusters as Gaussian distributions around fault vectors that each represent the trajectories the data moves along as the fault size increases for each cluster or fault mode. The algorithm also takes into account that data from one scenario are likely to belong to the same fault class i.e. it is not necessary to classify each data point separately, instead the data can be clustered as batches. This study also evaluates the proposed model as a semi-supervised learner, where some data is known. In this case, the algorithm can also be used to estimate the fault sizes of unknown faults by using the acquired fault vectors, given that there are known fault sizes for other data in the same cluster. The algorithm is evaluated with data collected from an engine test bench using a commercial Volvo engine and shows promising results as most fault scenarios can be correctly clustered. However, results show that there are clustering ambiguities for data from small faults, as they are more similar to the nominal case and overlap more with data from other fault modes.
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Vraný, Martin. "Dynamic model of procrastination." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-76803.
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The thesis presents a formal model of intertemporal decision problem of working on a task for distant reward which depends on the number of periods the subject actually spends working, where the subject faces varying opportunity costs of working each period before the deadline. Three psychologically plausible causes of procrastination are incorporated into the model as transformations of the decision problem. In order to assess a hypothesis that procrastination is an evolved and stable habit, the third transformation renders the model dynamic in that past decisions and circumstances affect the present. The model is first explored via qualitative analysis and simulations are performed to further reveal its functionality.