Дисертації з теми "EV MARKET"

Background:

The efficient market hypothesis states that it is not possible to consistently outperform the overall stock market by stock picking and market timing. This is because, in an efficient market, all stock prices are at their correct level, and there are no over- or undervalued stocks. Nevertheless, deviations from true price can occur according to the hypothesis, but when they do they are always random. Thus, the only way an investor can perform better than the overall stock market is by being lucky. However, the efficient market hypothesis is very controversial. It is often discussed within the area of modern financial theory and there are strong arguments both for and against it.

Purpose:

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether it is possible to outperform the overall stock market by investing in stocks that are undervalued according to the enterprise multiple (EV/EBITDA), and the price-earnings ratio.

Realization of the Study:

Portfolios were constructed based on information from five years, 2001 to 2005. Each year two portfolios were put together, one of them consisting of the six stocks with the lowest price-earnings ratio, and the other consisting of the six stocks with the lowest EV/EBITDA. Each portfolio was kept for one year and the unadjusted returns as well as the risk adjusted returns of the portfolios were compared to the returns on the two indexes OMXS30 and AFGX. The sample consisted of the 30 most traded stocks on the Nordic Stock Exchange in Stockholm 2006.

Conclusion:

The study shows that it is possible to outperform the overall stock market by investing in undervalued stocks according the price-earnings ratio and the EV/EBITDA. This indicates that the market is not efficient, even in its weak form.

This thesis was initiated by Penta Investment as a reaction on the significant difference in EV EBITDA multiple of Fortuna and its peers, European listed betting and gaming companies. It seeks to find the reason for more than twice higher multiple and a possibility to increase it by applying best international practices in case there is a feasible way to do it for Fortuna. Three hypotheses address the possible reasons for the difference, peers incomparability, market inefficiency and opportunity for Fortuna to increase the multiple by bringing the most influential KPIs the average level of its peers. The analysis is done with a help of comparative analysis, benchmarking, regression analysis and interviews of equity analysts. As a result, action plan for increasing EV EBITDA multiple for Fortuna is developed.

Background: In recent years, a record amount of people has turned towards various stock markets to invest in the boom that has been present since the financial crisis. To get the portfolio to be profitable or even more profitable than the market, is a goal that can be hard to achieve, where certain previous research proves that it is possible to outperform the market, while other research proves the opposite. A factor that refutes the individual’s ability to outperform the market is the human beings’ psychological behavior, which can cause irrational investment decisions. To circumvent the psychology behind investment decisions,several investment strategies have been formed throughout history, one of them being a multiple-strategy. Due to the rise in popularity of investing, it is of interest to analyze whether a multiple-strategy is successful in creating profitability.  Purpose: The purpose of the study is to analyze the multiples EV/S and EV/EBITDA as a multiple-strategy to observe which one generates the highest return for the companies on OMX Stockholm.  Methodology: With the aim of best achieving the purpose of the study, a quantitative method has been used with a deductive approach. With a selection of 251 companies through the period 2010-2019, eight portfolios have been created containing the 20 highest respectively the 20 lowest EV/S- or EV/EBITDA-multiples, with a holding period of either three or twelve months.  Results: The study shows that high EV/S- and EV/EBITDA-multiples as well as low EV/EBITDA-multiples successfully outperform the comparing index over a nine-year period. Low EV/S-multiples do not achieve the same performance. The portfolio with highEV/EBITDA-multiples with a holding period of three months yielded the highest return.

Electric Vehicles represent a small niche market today, but is predicted to grow rapidly over the next years. In order to prepare for this upcoming trend it is the networks of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations (EVCS) must expand, leading to an increasing demand for EVCSs. The EVCS market is thus becoming increasingly more popular to companies, and therefore this study’s purpose is to investigate this market and its competitive situation. The method used in this study includes a brief market analysis and a competitor analysis. The market analysis includes identification of the EVCS markets together assessing the future of the markets, and identification of EVCS market drivers and restraints. The competitor analysis includes competitor identification, classification and analysis. The top ten competitors are analyzed by the use of document content analysis, the analysis involves understanding the competitors’ target customers, how they do business and how their marketing material is structured. The three most promising EVCS markets, both currently and in the future, are the Asia Pacific, Europe and the North America markets. Most of the top competitors are active within these three markets. Regional developments, and market drivers and restraints of these markets have been identified. The opportunities in the EVCS markets are many as they are relatively unexploited markets without any actual market leaders, and also that all markets are predicted to grow at a very high rate over the coming decade in parallel with the projected mass adoption if Electric Vehicles (EVs).
Idag utgör elfordon endast en liten nischmarknad i transportmarknaden, men denna förväntas växa snabbt under de närmaste åren. För att kunna hantera marknadsetableringen av elfordon måste elfordonsladdningsinfrastrukturen byggas ut, vilket leder till en ökad efterfrågan på elfordonsladdningsstationer. Elfordonsladdningsmarknaden förespås således bli allt mer intressant för företag. Detta examensarbete genomförs på grund av detta växande intresse, då studiens syfte är att undersöka elfordonsladdstationsmarknaden och dess konkurrenssituation. Metoden som används i denna studie inbegriper en kort marknadsanalys och en konkurrensanalys. Marknadsanalysen innehåller identifiering av elfordonsladdningsmarknaderna, vad som driver och hindrar marknaderna, och en bedömning av hur framtiden ser ut för marknaderna. I konkurrensanalysen ingår identifiering, klassificering och analys av de olika konkurrenterna. De tio mest konkurrenskraftiga konkurrenterna analyseras med hjälp av dokumentinnehållsanalys, syftet med analysen är att förstå konkurrenternas målgrupper, hur de gör affärer och hur deras marknadsföringsmaterial är strukturerad. De tre mest lovande elfordonsladdningsmarknaderna, både nu och i framtiden, är marknaderna i Asien och Stillahavsområdet, Europa och Nordamerika. De flesta av de analyserade konkurrenterna är verksamma inom dessa tre marknader. Den regionala utvecklingen, och vad som driver och begränsar marknaderna har identifierats för de tre mest lovande marknaderna. Eftersom dessa marknader är relativt oexploaterade i samband med att de förväntas växa med väldigt hög takt det kommande decenniet parallellt med massanvändningen av elfordon är möjligheterna många för de företag som inriktar sig mot elbilsladdning.

Abstract Background: The popularity of stocks in Sweden is high and with the prevailing low interest climate investors must invest in stocks to earn return on their investment. Achieving a higher return than the market has been a continuous struggle for professional as well as private investors. Having an investment strategy is of great importance because it helps the investor make rational decisions, avoid psychological traps, and prevents them from losing out on possible return. Investing in securities with different characteristics diversifies the portfolio and reduces the total risk taken. Therefore, an interest among investors in examining whether multiple valuation is a fitting investment strategy should exist. Further to examine if there are any multiples that are especially suited for specific branches. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to analyze which multiple of P/E, P/BV, EV/S and EV/EBITDA generates the highest risk-adjusted return through relative valuation within six branches on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. The study also aims to analyze whether high or low multiples generates the highest risk adjusted return in a Bull Market and try to explain why. Method: Too achieve the purpose, a quantitative study with an abductive approach has been used. An analysis of historical stock prices and multiples has been made. A total of 48 portfolios have been constructed including high respectively low P/E, P/BV, EV/S and EV/EBITDA multiples. The portfolios have been weighted on a yearly basis and afterwards compared with several risk-adjustment tools. The risk-adjusted return has thereafter been compared to a general index too make it possible to draw conclusions. Result: The result implies that it is statistically assured that investors can achieve a higher return than index by using multiple valuation as an investment strategy in four out of six examined branches. A difference in return among the branches and portfolios can be concluded and there were in total 18 out of 48 portfolios that showed a higher risk-adjusted return in which twelve were statistically assured. statistically assured higher return than the chosen index. Keywords: Multiple Valuation, Relative Valuation, Branches, P/E, P/BV, EV/S, EV/EBITDA, Stock Market Psychology, Bull Market.

Title: Theoretical multiples as an investment strategy Authors: August Forsberg och William Rydman Supervisor: Øystein Fredriksen Background: Whether it is possible to generate excess return over time has been debated throughout the history and the results of previous research have found it possible. One approach to generate excess return is by using relative valuation. Even though there are theories on how to conduct the valuation method, a lot of actors in the market simplifies and misinterpret relative valuation. This leads onto the question if the gap between theory and practice has grown too big and if the common mistakes in relative valuation might be counteracted by calculating and using theoretical multiples as an investment strategy. Aim: The aim of this study is to analyze whether theoretical multiples can identify mispricing’s in the stock market. Further, the authors aim to examine if it is possible to generate excess return and a more accurate valuation by calculating the difference between theoretical- and reported multiples. Methodology: To achieve the aim of the study, a quantitative method with a deductive approach has been used. The study examines Swedish listed companies at OMX Stockholm Large Cap during the period 2008 to 2018. In order to evaluate the investment strategy, comparative portfolios have been designed based on the difference between theoretical and reported multiples. A total of eight portfolios have been constructed with low respectively high P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/BV and EV/Sales, where the portfolios are weighted once a year. Results: The study's results show that theoretical multiples work as an investment strategy for generating excess returns. In three out of four multiples, the overvalued shares performed better than the undervalued ones. By contrast, the undervalued shares generate higher riskadjusted returns than the overvalued ones. Although the psychological element in relative valuation is reduced by the investment strategy, the authors conclude that the share prices are largely influenced by other actors in the market. Key words: Efficient market hypothesis, Excess return, Investment strategies, Relative valuation, Multiples, Theoretical multiples, P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/BV, EV/Sales.
Titel: Teoretiska multiplar som investeringsstrategi Författare: August Forsberg och William Rydman Handledare: Øystein Fredriksen Bakgrund: Huruvida det är möjligt att generera överavkastning över tid har länge diskuterats och tidigare forskning menar att det är möjligt. Ett tillvägagångssätt för att generera överavkastning är att använda sig av relativvärdering. Trots att det finns teorier om hur värderingsmetoden ska genomföras, förenklas och misstolkas relativvärdering ofta av aktörer på marknaden. Det leder in på frågan om gapet mellan teori och praktik har blivit för stort samt om värderingsmetodens fallgropar kan motverkas genom beräkningen av teoretiska multiplar som investeringsstrategi. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att analysera om teoretiska multiplar kan identifiera felprissättningar på marknaden. Vidare ämnar studien att undersöka om det genom att beräkna differensen mellan teoretiska- och redovisade multiplar går att generera överavkastning och en mer precis värdering. Metod: För att uppnå syftet med studien har en kvantitativ metod med deduktiv ansats använts. Studien undersöker bolag noterade på OMX Stockholm Large Cap under perioden 2008 till 2018. För att utvärdera investeringsstrategin har jämförelseportföljer utifrån differensen mellan teoretiska och redovisade multiplar utformats. Totalt har åtta portföljer konstruerats med låga respektive höga P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/BV och EV/Sales där portföljerna viktas om en gång per år. Resultat: Studiens resultat visar att teoretiska multiplar fungerar som investeringsstrategi för att generera överavkastning. I tre av fyra multiplar har de övervärderade aktierna presterat bättre än de undervärderade. Däremot genererar de undervärderade aktierna högre riskjusterad avkastning än de övervärderade. Även om det psykologiska inslaget i relativvärdering minskas av investeringsstrategin, blir författarnas slutsats att aktiekurserna till stor del påverkas av andra aktörer på marknaden. Sökord: Effektiva marknadshypotesen, Överavkastning, Investeringsstrategi, Relativvärdering, Multiplar, Teoretiska multiplar, P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/BV, EV/Sales.

Personliga eldrivna fordon (EV) är ett nytt teknikområde som är på väg att uppnå stort momentum på flera av världens marknader. Eftersom branschen fortfarande ligger i sin linda finns det i nuläget inga tydliga strukturer, som gäller för alla marknader världen över, gällande relationerna mellan aktörer, vilket leder till osäkerheter när det kommer till att ta strategiska beslut. Uppdragsgivaren för denna studie är Hong Kong EV Power Ltd. (EV Power), en Hongkong-baserad leverantör av laddningsstationer för elbilar och relaterade tjänster, som har ambitionen att inträda marknaden på det kinesiska fastlandet inom den närmaste framtiden. Emellertid har EV Power ännu inte bestämt sig vilken stad de vill rikta in sig på i det första skedet. Denna avhandling ämnar formulera en modell som kan användas för att utvärdera och jämföra geografiska marknader med avseende på lämpligheten för ett marknadsinträde av en leverantör av laddningsstationer för elbilar. Dessutom kommer modellen testas på tre städer på kinas fastland (Peking, Shanghai och Shenzhen), med syfte att komma fram till vilken stad som är mest attraktiv för EV Power, samt att utvärdera modellens funktionsduglighet. Sist kommer resultaten från utvärderingen av de tre städerna att tjäna som utgångspunkten för en analys som ämnar ta fram framgångsfaktorer för ett marknadsinträde på kinas fastland. För att uppnå detta har fyra olika datainsamlingsmetoder använts: Först studerades teori, med syfte att få bakgrundskunskap likväl som att få förståelse för specifika faktorer som påverkar ett marknadsinträde som detta. För det andra observerades EV Powers nuvarande verksamhet i Hong Kong, i avsikt att förstå vad som har lett till den framgång som företaget upplevt på sin hemmamarknad. För det tredje intervjuades branschexperter för att få ett perspektiv på branschen som helhet. Sist samlades sekundär data kring de tre städerna in, för att kunna utvärdera de olika faktorerna som ingår i den framtagna modellen. Den slutgiltiga modellen består av fem faktorer som påverkar en stads attraktivitet för ett marknadsinträde av en leverantör av laddningsstationer för elbilar. De identifierade faktorerna är: ’Marknadens tillgänglighet’, ’Kortsiktig efterfrågan’, ’Förväntad marknadsandel’, ’Vinstmarginal’ och ’Långsiktig produktpotential’. Dessa faktorer är i sin tur indelade i subfaktorer som har sina egna uppsättningar av drivare. Efter att ha använt modellen för att utvärdera de tre städerna konstaterades det att Shanghai är den lämpligaste staden för ett marknadsinträde av EV Power, främst på grund av stadens dominans på marknaden för privatanvända elbilar och ett gynnsamt regelverk. Slutligen hittades tre framgångsfaktorer för ett sådant inträde: ’Fokusera på tjänster’, ’Bibehåll partner-relationer’ och ’Inträd tidigt’.
Personal electric vehicles (EV) is an emerging technology that has gained much momentum in several markets during the past decade, and China is currently one of the markets where the growth in EV sales is the highest. Since the industry is still in its infancy, there are currently no clear structures regarding the relationships between different actors that apply to all markets globally, leading to great uncertainty in strategic decisions. The commissioner of this study is Hong Kong EV Power Ltd. (EV Power), a producer of EV supply equipment (EVSE) and related services in Hong Kong, which aspires to enter the Chinese mainland in the near future. However, EV Power has yet to decide which city they want to target first. This thesis aims to formulate a model that can be used to evaluate and compare geographic markets for a market entry by an EVSE company. Furthermore, the model is tested on three cities in Mainland China (Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen), in order to derive the most attractive city for EV Power and to evaluate the adequacy of the model. Lastly, with the results from the city evaluation, as a point of departure, success factors for an entry into Mainland China by the commissioning company will be summarized. In order to achieve this objective, four distinct data collection methods have been used: First, theory was studied, in order to gain background knowledge as well as to understand specific factors that impact a market entry decision such as this. Second, EV Power’s current business in Hong Kong was observed, with a view to achieve an understanding of what has led the company to experience success in its home market. Third, Interviews with industry experts were conducted, so as to get a perspective on the industry as a whole. Fourth and last, secondary data for the different cities was collected, for the sake of evaluating them according to the developed model. The final model consists of five main factors that encompass the elements that influence a cities level of attractiveness for entry by an EV charging station supplier. The identified factors are: ‘Market accessibility’, ‘Short-term demand’, ‘Expected market share’, ‘Profit margin’, and ‘Long-term product potential’. These factors are in turn divided into sub factors that have their own set of drivers. Using the model to evaluate the cities, it was found that Shanghai is the most suitable city for a market entry by EV Power, mainly due to its dominance in the market for private EVs and a favourable regulatory environment. Finally, three main success factors, for such a market entry, were found: ‘Focus on services’, ‘Maintain partner relationships’, and ‘Enter early’.

Sustainable transportation solutions are the goal for the future. With the technological shit happening in the transportation market towards electric vehicles, the electric road system (ERS) is a necessary technology required to reach the sustainability goals for the future. While many studies show the role of innovation in a socio-technical landscape, many neglect the diffusion process of the innovation which occurs to create a socio-technical change. The nature of this thesis is an exploratory case study with a qualitative approach. To address the study, a literature review for the diffusion of innovation, its characteristics, multi-level perspective, and technology readiness level (TRL) was presented in order to provide a better understanding and build a foundation for the research. A review of scientific articles regarding the electric road system was performed to provide insights and obtain information on the technology. The data from scientific articles were complemented by interviews from experts regarding electric road systems to obtain an understanding of technology if it was to be implemented in the future in Sweden. The empirics collected were analyzed using the literature framework and conclusions were drawn. Analyzing the data was required to find the factors hindering the technology and if there is a window of opportunity for the technology to exist in the Swedish market. Environmental sustainability has been the driving factor, but the rate of diffusion for the technology will depend on the complexity and the maturity of the technology to function as a whole working system. The study contributes to evaluating the implementation of an inductive electric road system in the Swedish context and if it could be a viable solution in the transportation market. The perspectives of the technology in the Swedish market and the motivation for the solution are discussed. An analytical contribution by evaluating if the technology could exist in the future and insights on the diffusion of the technology into the existing landscape.

碩士
國立交通大學
理學院應用科技學程
100
The global automotive industry forwards to develop electric vehicles (EVs) in future under the trends of energy-efficiency. Definitely, China is still the largest automotive market in the world and develops the electric vehicles actively. However, the electrification of the vehicles means the revolution of car’s industry structure. This study draws on the opportunity of EVs’ components factory in Taiwan access to EVs’ market in China. To generalize the possible cooperative model for EV industry is based on the experience of the actual delivery to foreign car plants, demonstration runs, integrated R&D resource in Taiwan, the cross-strait policy, and the complementary advantages. The result can be predicted to shorten the duration which EV is conducted to the production in China and expand the market scale of EVs’ components factory in Taiwan, and provide a reference for the components factory in Taiwan and the EV plant in China.

The automotive sector is one of the most competitive and complex markets in the world. The dynamics of this context push manufacturers into implementing downward brand extensions, blurring the differences between value and premium brands. Through an experimental approach, the main study aimed to understand how consumers evaluate a downward brand line extension in the European premium automotive market. Results indicated that the extension purchase intention is dependent of the consumer’s extension attitude, the extension perceived fit, and the status-seeking behaviour, but not of the parent brand attitude, the ownership status, or the innovativeness. The second purpose to the study was to investigate the consumer attitudes towards the adoption of electrical vehicles (EVs) and also to analyse the influence of consumer attitudes on EV adoption in an EV secondary market context. The study relied mainly on in-depth interviews of drivers of conventional vehicles, complemented, in the first part, with quantitative data collected by a survey on drivers’ attitudes. Results suggest that the preference between battery charging point types (personal, workplace, public) is important and dependent on the driver context. The existence of a second conventional car and an advanced range management system were also noted as potentially important. A secondary market of EVs was also suggested as potentially viable, if certain conditions are met.
O setor automóvel é um dos mercados mais competitivos e complexos no mundo. As forças dinâmicas que caracterizam este contexto levam os fabricantes a implementar extensões descendentes da marca, reduzindo as diferenças entre as marcas massificadas e marcas premium. Através do método experimental, o estudo principal procurou perceber como os consumidores avaliam extensões descendentes de marcas premium no mercado automóvel Europeu. Os resultados indicaram que a intenção de compra de uma extensão é dependente da atitude do consumidor face à extensão, da semelhança percebida da extensão face à marca mãe, e da procura de prestígio por parte do consumidor, mas não é dependente da atitude do consumidor à marca mãe, do efeito de propriedade, ou da innovativeness. O segundo estudo teve por objetivo investigar as atitudes dos consumidores face à adoção de veículos elétricos, e ainda a aceitação dos consumidores ao mercado secundário de veículos elétricos. O estudo utilizou fundamentalmente entrevistas em profundidade a condutores de veículos convencionais, complementadas, numa primeira parte, com dados quantitativos recolhidos por inquérito sobre as perceções dos consumidores de automóveis. Os resultados sugerem que a preferência entre os tipos de estações de carregamento de baterias (residencial, local de trabalho, pública) é importante e dependente do contexto do consumidor. A existência de um segundo carro convencional e um sistema de gestão de viagem avançado também foram notadas como potencialmente importantes. Foi ainda sugerido que um mercado secundário de veículos elétricos poderá ser viável, caso sejam garantidas certas condições.
Programa Doutoral em Marketing e Estratégia

This thesis evaluates emerging electric vehicle technology and estimates what effect it might have on how an oil company decides on its gas station network. It is conducted using data from South Korea, a country poised for a fast adoption of electric vehicles. The study first reviews the literature to gather reasonable cases of electric vehicle penetration. Also, after researching technology-diffusion theories, the study selects a model that can well explain the literature review data. The scenarios induced by this function are utilized as the main uncertainties confronting an oil company’s network decision model. Based on a probabilistic simulation, the study finds that the effects of technology diffusion alter the priority order of an oil company’s network decision alternatives. Namely, after the overall uncertainty level rises, directly owning gas station, with its heavy initial investment, is not preferred for an oil company’s network strategy. From the result, the study also estimates the scale of the new technology’s effect. Such effect is found to be significant enough to alter a part of an oil company’s retail strategy. Nevertheless, such effect cannot be shown to be so great as to change the current retail oil market structures.
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The electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) grid is undergoing a paradigm shift as renewable generation explodes while flexible, storage-like loads are being massively adopted. We address the intermittency and volatility issues of renewable resources in connection with spatiotemporal distribution location-specific marginal-cost-based prices (DLMPs) that guide flexible loads to utilize their significant degrees of freedom for the purpose of providing valuable storage-like services to the grid including demand response, energy charge/discharge arbitrage and regulation reserve services. Dynamic DLMPs can induce socially optimal energy and reserve schedules to be adopted by flexible load. To this end, existing transmission wholesale markets must be extended to include distribution network connected participants. Since the inclusion of the complex preferences of many flexible loads renders familiar centralized transmission market designs intractable, we propose and investigate tractable decentralized market designs with Electric Vehicle (EV) battery charging selected as the representative flexible load. We address the equilibrium existence, uniqueness, and efficiency issues that arise with decentralized market designs, using game theory techniques. We investigate various multi-hour and multi-commodity (energy and reserves) market designs including EV self-scheduling under distribution network information aware/unaware conditions, and single or multiple load aggregator(s) scheduling groups of EVs. We investigate the role of network related information in enabling partially price anticipating EVs to acquire market power and self-schedule to achieve individual benefits at the expense of social welfare. Our contribution is the proof of existence and uniqueness of decentralized market equilibria, as well as analytical and numerical comparative analysis. Secondly, we depart from the usual ideal battery assumption, employing instead a realistic two bucket model. We then develop a novel Markovian Decision Process (MDP) application to estimate the regulation tracking cost incurred over an hour by an EV charger employing an optimal controller to respond to the regulation signal which is reset every two seconds by the system operator. The hourly tracking error increases when the EV promises higher regulation reserves while at the same time demanding an achievable albeit high average charging rate. We solve the MDP repeatedly, in fact off line, to capture the impact of the average charging rate and the regulation reserves promised at the beginning of an hour to the resulting hourly regulation tracking error. We then estimate a convex closed form relationship mapping hourly charging rate and regulation reserve offerings to the expected hourly tracking error cost. These convex tracking cost functions provide crucial input to the day ahead hourly energy bids and regulation reserve offers made by individual EVs to the Day Ahead market in response to spatiotemporal DLMPs.

Models and simulators have been widely used in urban contexts for many decades. The drawback of most current models is that they are normally designed for specific objectives, so the elements considered are limited and they do not take into account the potential synergies between related systems. The necessity of a framework to model complex smart city systems with a comprehensive smart city model has been remarked by many authors. Therefore, this PhD thesis presents: i) a general conceptual framework for the modelling of energy related activities in smart cities, based on determining the spheres of influence and intervention areas within the city, and on identifying agents and potential synergies among systems, and ii) the development of a holistic energy model of a smart city for the assessment of different courses of action, given its geo-location, regulatory and technical constraints, and current energy markets. This involves the creation of an optimization model that permits the optimal planning and operation of energy resources within the city. In addition, several analyses were carried out to explore different hypothesis for the smart city energy model, including: a)      an assessment of the importance of including network thermal constraints in the planning and operation of DER systems at a low voltage distribution level, b)      an analysis of aggregator’s market modelling approaches and the impact on prices due to DER aggregation levels, and c)      an analysis of synergies between different systems in a smart city context. Some of the main findings are: It is sensible to not consider network thermal constraints in the planning of DER systems. Results showed that the benefit decrement of considering network constraints was approximatively equivalent to the cost of reinforcing the network when necessary after planning without considering network constraints. The level of aggregation affects the planning and overall benefits of DER systems. Also, price-maker approaches could be more appropriate for the planning and operation of energy resources for medium to large aggregation sizes, but could be unnecessary for small sizes, with low expected impact on the market price. Synergies between different energy systems exist in an interconnected smart city context. Results showed that the overall benefits of a joint management of systems were greater than those of the independently managed systems. Lastly, the smart city energy model was applied to a case study simulating a real smart city implementation, considering five real districts in the southern area of Madrid, Spain. This analysis allowed to assess the potential benefits of the implementation of a real smart city programme, and showed how the proposed smart city energy model could be used for the planning of pilot projects. To the best of our knowledge, such a smart city energy model and modelling framework had not been developed and applied yet, and no economic results in terms of the potential benefits of such a smart city initiative had been previously reported.

QC 20171010