Статті в журналах з теми "Epidemiology, health economics, cost-of-illness, respiratory diseases"

SUMMARY Pertussis, an acute respiratory infection caused by Bordetella pertussis, classically manifests as a protracted cough illness. The incidence of pertussis in the United States has been increasing in recent years. Immunity wanes after childhood vaccination, leaving adolescents and adults susceptible to infection. The transmission of pertussis in health care settings has important medical and economic consequences. Acellular pertussis booster vaccines are now available for use and have been recommended for all adolescents and adults. These vaccines are safe, immunogenic, and effective. Health care workers are a priority group for vaccination because of their increased risk of acquiring infection and the potential to transmit pertussis to high-risk patients. Health care worker vaccination programs are likely to be cost-effective, but further research is needed to determine the acceptability of pertussis vaccines among health care workers, the duration of immunity after booster doses, and the impact of vaccination on the management of pertussis exposures in health care settings.

Abstract Background Pregnant women are at increased risk of seasonal influenza hospitalizations, but data about the epidemiology of severe influenza among pregnant women remain largely limited to pandemics. Methods To describe the epidemiology of hospitalizations for acute respiratory infection or febrile illness (ARFI) and influenza-associated ARFI among pregnant women, administrative and electronic health record data were analyzed from retrospective cohorts of pregnant women hospitalized with ARFI who had testing for influenza viruses by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in Australia, Canada, Israel, and the United States during 2010–2016. Results Of 18 048 ARFI-coded hospitalizations, 1064 (6%) included RT-PCR testing for influenza viruses, 614 (58%) of which were influenza positive. Of 614 influenza-positive ARFI hospitalizations, 35% were in women with low socioeconomic status, 20% with underlying conditions, and 67% in their third trimesters. The median length of influenza-positive hospitalizations was 2 days (interquartile range, 1–4), 18% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15%–21%) resulted in delivery, 10% (95% CI, 8%–12%) included a pneumonia diagnosis, 5% (95% CI, 3%–6%) required intensive care, 2% (95% CI, 1%–3%) included a sepsis diagnosis, and <1% (95% CI, 0%–1%) resulted in respiratory failure. Conclusions Our findings characterize seasonal influenza hospitalizations among pregnant women and can inform assessments of the public health and economic impact of seasonal influenza on pregnant women.

SUMMARYWe investigated the cost-effectiveness of different influenza control strategies in a school setting in Taiwan. A susceptible-exposure-infected-recovery (SEIR) model was used to simulate influenza transmission and we used a basic reproduction number (R0)–asymptomatic proportion (θ) control scheme to develop a cost-effectiveness model. Based on our dynamic transmission model and economic evaluation, this study indicated that the optimal cost-effective strategy for all modelling scenarios was a combination of natural ventilation and respiratory masking. The estimated costs were US$10/year per person in winter for one kindergarten student. The cost for hand washing was estimated to be US$32/year per person, which was much lower than that of isolation (US$55/year per person) and vaccination (US$86/year per person) in containing seasonal influenza. Transmission model-based, cost-effectiveness analysis can be a useful tool for providing insight into the impacts of economic factors and health benefits on certain strategies for controlling seasonal influenza.

BackgroundNon-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death globally. In 2014, the United Nations committed to reducing premature mortality from NCDs, including by reducing the burden of healthcare costs. Since 2014, the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study has been collecting health expenditure data from households with NCDs in 18 countries.MethodsUsing data from the PURE Study, we estimated risk of catastrophic health spending and impoverishment among households with at least one person with NCDs (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney disease, cancer and respiratory diseases; n=17 435), with hypertension only (a leading risk factor for NCDs; n=11 831) or with neither (n=22 654) by country income group: high-income countries (Canada and Sweden), upper middle income countries (UMICs: Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Poland, South Africa and Turkey), lower middle income countries (LMICs: the Philippines, Colombia, India, Iran and the Occupied Palestinian Territory) and low-income countries (LICs: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Zimbabwe and Tanzania) and China.ResultsThe prevalence of catastrophic spending and impoverishment is highest among households with NCDs in LMICs and China. After adjusting for covariates that might drive health expenditure, the absolute risk of catastrophic spending is higher in households with NCDs compared with no NCDs in LMICs (risk difference=1.71%; 95% CI 0.75 to 2.67), UMICs (0.82%; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.27) and China (7.52%; 95% CI 5.88 to 9.16). A similar pattern is observed in UMICs and China for impoverishment. A high proportion of those with NCDs in LICs, especially women (38.7% compared with 12.6% in men), reported not taking medication due to costs.ConclusionsOur findings show that financial protection from healthcare costs for people with NCDs is inadequate, particularly in LMICs and China. While the burden of NCD care may appear greatest in LMICs and China, the burden in LICs may be masked by care foregone due to costs. The high proportion of women reporting foregone care due to cost may in part explain gender inequality in treatment of NCDs.

AbstractObjective:To model the economic costs of hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) in New Zealand, by type of HAI.Design:Monte Carlo simulation model.Setting:Auckland District Health Board Hospitals (DHBH), the largest publicly funded hospital group in New Zealand supplying secondary and tertiary services. Costs are also estimated for predicted HAIs in admissions to all hospitals in New Zealand.Patients:All adults admitted to general medical and general surgical services.Method:Data on the number of cases of HAI were combined with data on the estimated prolongation of hospital stay due to HAI to produce an estimate of the number of bed days attributable to HAI. A cost per bed day value was applied to provide an estimate of the economic cost. Costs were estimated for predicted infections of the urinary tract, surgical wounds, the lower and upper respiratory tracts, the bloodstream, and other sites, and for cases of multiple sites of infection. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken for input variables.Results:The estimated costs of predicted HAIs in medical and surgical admissions to Auckland DHBH were $10.12 (US $4.56) million and $8.64 (US $3.90) million, respectively. They were $51.35 (US $23.16) million and $85.26 (US $38.47) million, respectively, for medical and surgical admissions to all hospitals in New Zealand.Conclusions:The method used produces results that are less precise than those of a specifically designed study using primary data collection, but has been applied at a lower cost. The estimated cost of HAIs is substantial, but only a proportion of infections can be avoided. Further work is required to identify the most cost-effective strategies for the prevention of HAI.

Objectives. To characterize the current economic burden of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and to determine which services increase the cost of VAP in North American hospitals. Design and Setting. We performed a retrospective, matched cohort analysis of mechanically ventilated patients enrolled in the North American Silver-Coated Endotracheal Tube (NASCENT) study, a prospective, randomized study conducted from 2002 to 2006 in 54 medical centers, including 45 teaching institutions (83.3%). Methods. Case patients with microbiologically confirmed VAP (n = 30) were identified from 542 study participants with claims data and were matched by use of a primary diagnostic code, and subsequently by the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, to control patients without VAP (n = 90). Costs were estimated by applying hospital-specific cost-to-charge ratios based on all-payer inpatient costs associated with VAP diagnosis-related groups. Results. Median total charges per patient were $198,200 for case patients and $96,540 for matched control patients (P <.001); corresponding median hospital costs were $76,730 for case patients and $41,250 for control patients (P = .001). After adjusting for diagnosis-related group payments, median losses to hospitals were $32,140 for case patients and $19,360 for control patients (P = .151). The median duration of intubation was longer for case patients than for control patients (10.1 days vs 4.7 days; P < .001), as were the median duration of intensive care unit stay (18.5 days vs 8.0 days; P < .001) and the median duration of hospitalization (26.5 days vs 14.0 days; P < .001). Examples of services likely to be directly related to VAP and having higher median costs for case patients were hospital care (P < .05) and respiratory therapy (P < .05). Conclusions. VAP was associated with increased hospital costs, longer duration of hospital stay, and a higher number of hospital services being affected, which underscores the need for bundled measures to prevent VAP. Trial Registration. NASCENT study ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00148642.

Studies evaluating the relationship between microbes and human health at non-point source beaches are necessary for establishing criteria which would protect public health while minimizing economic burdens. The objective of this study was to evaluate water quality and daily cumulative health effects (gastrointestinal, skin, and respiratory illnesses) for bathers at a non-point source subtropical marine recreational beach in order to better understand the inter-relationships between these factors and hence improve monitoring and pollution prevention techniques. Daily composite samples were collected, during the Oceans and Human Health Beach Exposure Assessment and Characterization Health Epidemiologic Study conducted in Miami (Florida, USA) at a non-point source beach, and analyzed for several pathogens, microbial source tracking markers, indicator microbes, and environmental parameters. Analysis demonstrated that rainfall and tide were more influential, when compared to other environmental factors and source tracking markers, in determining the presence of both indicator microbes and pathogens. Antecedent rainfall and F+ coliphage detection in water should be further assessed to confirm their possible association with skin and gastrointestinal (GI) illness outcomes, respectively. The results of this research illustrate the potential complexity of beach systems characterized by non-point sources, and how more novel and comprehensive approaches are needed to assess beach water quality for the purpose of protecting bather health.

Introduction. Acute respiratory viral and pneumococcal infections, the incidence of which is associated with high economic costs, are one of the most important problems in epidemiology and pulmonology. Preventive vaccination is a tool for managing the incidence of acute respiratory viral infection (ARVI) and pneumococcal infections. The issues of medical and economic efficiency of preventive vaccination are constantly in the field of epidemiological surveillance, and the estimates obtained in this case are a necessary condition for making decisions on the viability of investing in its organization.Aim. Expert assessment and predictive modeling of the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal and influenza vaccines in immunocompetent adult patients with different levels of risk of acute and chronic respiratory diseases among the builders of the Amur Gas Processing Plant (GPP).Materials and methods. A complex of studies was carried out using the methods of statistics, epidemiological analysis and monitoring, comparative and economic analysis. Determination of the economic profitability of vaccination was carried out on the basis of methods of comparing “costs” and “benefits”. The surveyed cohort is represented by adults working on the construction of the Amur GPP (Svobodny, Amur Region). The main risk factors and inclusion criteria were the conditions of adverse effects of occupational, social and biological factors on human respiratory health. A set of preventive measures was carried out using methods and means of specific prevention of acute and chronic respiratory diseases: anti-influenza (Ultrix Quadri) and pneumococcal (Prevenar-13) vaccines. Efficacy analysis was carried out for 20-, 40- and 60-year-old patients with 1, 2 and 3 risk factors in accordance with the methods of its medical, social and economic evaluation. A retrospective determination of the cases of diseases (deaths) and economic damage prevented as a result of vaccination was carried out on the basis of the difference in morbidity (mortality) rates for the period preceding vaccination and for the period following vaccination. When constructing a predictive model for evaluating the effectiveness of vaccine prevention of respiratory infections, expert assessments, legal documents and the methodology of individual researchers were used.Results. The predicted incidence of pneumonia among the builders of the Amur GPP, taking into account all risk factors, can be 32.3‰. At the same time, the total volume of prevented predictive incidence of pneumonia in the post-vaccination period only with the use of pneumococcal vaccine can be 26.5‰, reducing the initial incidence rate by 5.5 times. As a result of the calculations and economic assessment, it was found that the total (direct and indirect) economic costs of the state and the plant (economic damage) with the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia in the working-age population (20-60 years) on the territory of this construction site is 112,811 rubles. per person per year. Consequently, the prevented economic damage among the employees and builders of the Amur GPP only as a result of the use of the pneumococcal vaccine “Prevenar-13” is 13,537,411 rubles. In addition, immunoprophylaxis with the use of influenza vaccines can reduce the incidence of influenza, ARVI, pneumonia and chronic forms of respiratory diseases, which corresponds to additional prevented economic damage to the plant in the amount of 103,786,764 rubles. Thus, the predicted total prevented economic damage for this plant as a result of vaccination may amount to 117,324,175 rubles.Conclusion. The results of the studies indicate that the implementation of the Program for the Prevention of Acute Respiratory Diseases by means of influenza and pneumococcal vaccines among the builders of the Amur GPP has a high level of medical and socio-economic efficiency, identified on the basis of its predictive modeling and expert assessments.

Handwashing is the most cost-effective measure for prevention of a wide spectrum of diseases from respiratory, intestinal, soil transmitted helminthiasis, health-care associated illness to infection with pandemic potential like SARS, MERS and COVID 19. Experts view that handwashing can be the greatest investment in the mankind as it reduces under nutrition, morbidity, mortality and paves way for growth, development, educational attainment of people and thereby achieving healthier communities. Though the evidence of handwashing on health is two centuries old but change in human behaviour seems critical in both developing and developed countries. Hand hygiene is rarely practiced during crucial moments and even rarely soap is used. Therefore emphasis should be given towards a societal shift in behaviour change among children, caretakers and people of all age groups. Every school, community and hospital should be provided with Safe water, Sanitation and adequate Hygiene (WASH) services. Hand hygiene to be given top priority in national health plans by which millions of unnecessary deaths and burden on health care system can be avoided. Nevertheless under the looming threat of the current COVID 19 pandemic, where the exact epidemiology is still evolving and a vaccine doesn’t seem feasible as an immediate measure to control the disease, handwashing should be considered as a ‘social vaccine’ for everyone at every household level.

Objectives.To determine risk factors for acquisition of multidrug-resistant (MDR)Acinetobacter baumanniiinfection during an outbreak, to describe the clinical manifestations of infection, and to ascertain the cost of infection.Design.Case-control study.Setting.Surgical intensive care unit in a 400-bed urban teaching hospital and level 1 trauma center.Patients.Case patients received a diagnosis of infection due toA. baumanniiisolates with a unique pattern of drug resistance (ie, susceptible to imipenem, variably susceptible to aminoglycosides, and resistant to all other antibiotics) between December 1, 2004, and August 31, 2005. Case patients were matched 1 : 1 with concurrently hospitalized control patients. Isolates' genetic relatedness was established by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis.Results.Sixty-seven patients met the inclusion criteria. Case and control patients were similar with respect to age, duration of hospitalization, and Charlson comorbidity score. MDRA. baumanniiinfections included ventilator-associated pneumonia (in 56.7% of patients), bacteremia (in 25.4%), postoperative wound infections (in 25.4%), central venous catheter-associated infections (in 20.9%), and urinary tract infections (in 10.4%). Conditional multiple logistic regression was used to determine statistically significant risk factors on the basis of results from the bivariate analyses. The duration of hospitalization and healthcare charges were modeled by multiple linear regression. Significant risk factors included higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (odds ratio [OR], 1.1 per point increase;P= .06), duration of intubation (OR, 1.4 per day intubated;P<.01), exposure to bronchoscopy (OR, 22.7;P= .03), presence of chronic pulmonary disease (OR, 77.7;P= .02), receipt of fluconazole (OR, 73.3;P<.01), and receipt of levofloxacin (OR, 11.5;P= .02). Case patients had a mean of $60,913 in attributable excess patient charges and a mean of 13 excess hospital days.Interventions.Infection control measures included the following: limitations on the performance of pulsatile lavage wound debridement, the removal of items with upholstered surfaces, and the implementation of contact isolation for patients with suspected MDRA. baumanniiinfection.Conclusions.This large outbreak of infection due to clonal MDRA. baumanniicaused significant morbidity and expense. Aerosolization of MDRA. baumanniiduring pulsatile lavage debridement of infected wounds and during the management of respiratory secretions from colonized and infected patients may promote widespread environmental contamination. Multifaceted infection control interventions were associated with a decrease in the number of MDRA. baumanniiisolates recovered from patients.

Relevance. Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are a serious health problem not only because of the high frequency of their occurrence, but also because of the economic damage they cause both in the form of direct costs (the cost of diagnosis and treatment) and indirect costs (disability, reduced labor productivity, etc.). Pregnant women and children under 5 years of age are included in the group of patients with risk factors for complications of influenza and other ARI, therefore, an analysis of the etiological structure of ARI and influenza in obstetric hospitals is an urgent task. In recent years, there has been an urgent need to create a national complex diagnostic test system based on molecular genetic methods for detecting infectious agents that cause ARI. Aims. The aim of the study is to analyze the etiological structure of ARI and influenza in patients with clinical symptoms and to develop and implement a new test system for rapid screening and diagnosis of infections that cause ARI. Materials & methods. When studying the etiological structure of ARI and influenza, cultural studies of the nasal and pharyngeal mucosa were carried out, followed by identification of microorganisms using MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and molecular genetic study (real-time PCR) using an experimental test panel containing primers that allow detecting the following viruses: influenza A, B viruses, parainfluenza viruses of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th types, coronaviruses OS43, HKU1, NL63, E229, respiratory syncytial virus, metapneumovirus, rhinovirus and adenovirus, as well as bacterial pathogens of ARI: Haemophilus influenzae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Streptococcus pyogenes, Moraxella catarrhalis, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The test system was developed using the following methods: real-time PCR, a combination of reverse transcription and real-time PCR (RT-PCR) and the next generation sequencing (NGS) method. Results. The etiological structure of ARI and influenza was analyzed in patients with clinical manifestations (cough, tickling/sore throat/hyperemia of the mucous membrane of the palate and the back wall of the pharynx, shortness of breath/difficulty breathing, acute runny nose/nasal congestion). The species spectrum of bacterial and viral pathogens was revealed. A new test system based on PCR, real-time RT-PCR and NGS has been created for complex diagnostics of both viral and bacterial pathogens of ARI, consisting of three separate components: the main test system «ARI», which detects the main viral and bacterial pathogens of ARI, and two additional sets of reagents: «Oseltamivir resistance» and «Oseltamivir/ Zanamivir resistance». Conclusions. The new test system can be used to detect and differentiate nucleic acids of pathogens of ARI of humans. The test system seems to us promising for further use. As a result of the analysis of the etiological structure of acute respiratory infections and influenza, attention is drawn to a significantly smaller variety of identified pathogens in 2020 and a much more pronounced dominance of rhinovirus infection compared to our previous study in 2019.

Abstract Abstract 5055 Introduction Pediatric venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a multifactorial disease most commonly seen in children with complex medical conditions. The data regarding associated conditions in children is sparse. The most comprehensive source regarding these associations is derived from the Canadian registry of 137 children with VTE collected from 1990-1992. Objective To refine the spectrum of pediatric VTE associated illnesses, utilizing a large, comprehensive claims database. Methods The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) Kids' Inpatient Database (KID) 2006 was utilized to identify children <18 years old with in-hospital VTE. These children were identified by the presence of at least one of the following ICD-9-CM diagnosis or procedure codes: 325, 452, 453(.0, .2-.42), 453 (.8-.9), 415 (.0-.11), 38 (.05, .07, .09), or 99.10. The remaining diagnostic ICD-9-CM codes were then utilized to assign a preliminary Complex Chronic Condition (CCC) category for each patient, using previously defined criteria. This categorization was further refined by a manual translation of the diagnostic codes by one of the investigators (BAS or BAK). The incidence of in-hospital VTE by geographic region, hospital type, age, gender, ethnicity, and median household income was estimated. Results 4,731 children met the inclusion criteria (1.76/1,000 discharges). The major underlying illnesses were cardiovascular (18%), malignancy (17%), neuromuscular disease (11%), gastrointestinal (8%), hematology/immunology (7%), and metabolic disease (6%). Trauma and surgical interventions were present in 5 % while 5% of VTE was idiopathic. Renal, respiratory, and autoimmune diseases were less commonly associated with VTE (<5%). Interestingly, the incidence of VTE was highest in the Midwest (2.12/1,000 discharges) and lowest in the South (1.60/1,000 discharges). As seen in previous studies, VTE was more commonly seen in infants and adolescents. There was a slight predominance of males with VTE (1.22:1). 4.2% of the VTE were associated with in-hospital death. Conclusion Pediatric VTE is rarely an idiopathic illness. More commonly it is associated with a chronic underlying medical condition. These data refine our understanding of the spectrum of underlying health conditions in children with VTE. This is limited by the inability to take into account the use of various medications and outpatient interventions that may have contributed to the occurrence of the VTE. Future studies should focus on the epidemiology of VTE within each associated disease category. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Objectives: The Core Elements of Outpatient Antibiotic Stewardship provides a framework to improve antibiotic use, but cost-effectiveness data on implementation of outpatient antibiotic stewardship interventions are limited. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of Core Element implementation in the outpatient setting. Methods: An economic simulation model from the health-system perspective was developed for patients presenting to outpatient settings with uncomplicated acute respiratory tract infections (ARI). Effectiveness was measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost and utility parameters for antibiotic treatment, adverse drug events (ADEs), and healthcare utilization were obtained from the literature. Probabilities for antibiotic treatment and appropriateness, ADEs, hospitalization, and return ARI visits were estimated from 16,712 and 51,275 patient visits in intervention and control sites during the pre- and post-implementation periods, respectively. Data for materials and labor to perform the stewardship activities were used to estimate intervention cost. We performed a one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) using 1,000,000 second-order Monte Carlo simulations on input parameters. Results: The proportion of ARI patient-visits with antibiotics prescribed in intervention sites was lower (62% vs 74%) and appropriate treatment higher (51% vs 41%) after implementation, compared to control sites. The estimated intervention cost over a 2-year period was $133,604 (2018 US dollars). The intervention had lower mean costs ($528 vs $565) and similar mean QALYs (0.869 vs 0.868) per patient compared to usual care. In the PSA, the intervention was dominant in 63% of iterations. Conclusions: Implementation of the CDC Core Elements in the outpatient setting was a cost-effective strategy.

Abstract Aims Mental health (MH) service users have increased prevalence of chronic physical conditions such as cardio-respiratory diseases and diabetes. Potentially Preventable Hospitalisations (PPH) for physical health conditions are an indicator of health service access, integration and effectiveness, and are elevated in long term studies of people with MH conditions. We aimed to examine whether PPH rates were elevated in MH service users over a 12-month follow-up period more suitable for routine health indicator reporting. We also examined whether MH service users had increased PPH rates at a younger age, potentially reflecting the younger onset of chronic physical conditions. Methods A population-wide data linkage in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, population 7.8 million. PPH rates in 178 009 people using community MH services in 2016–2017 were compared to population rates. Primary outcomes were crude and age- and disadvantage-standardised annual PPH episode rate (episodes per 100 000 population), PPH day rate (hospital days per 100 000) and adjusted incidence rate ratios (AIRR). Results MH service users had higher rates of PPH admission (AIRR 3.6, 95% CI 3.5–3.6) and a larger number of hospital days (AIRR 5.2, 95% CI 5.2–5.3) than other NSW residents due to increased likelihood of admission, more admissions per person and longer length of stay. Increases were greatest for vaccine-preventable conditions (AIRR 4.7, 95% CI 4.5–5.0), and chronic conditions (AIRR 3.7, 95% CI 3.6–3.7). The highest number of admissions and relative risks were for respiratory and metabolic conditions, including chronic obstructive airways disease (AIRR 5.8, 95% CI 5.5–6.0) and diabetic complications (AIRR 5.4, 95% CI 5.1–5.8). One-quarter of excess potentially preventable bed days in MH service users were due to vaccine-related conditions, including vaccine-preventable respiratory illness. Age-related increases in risk occurred earlier in MH service users, particularly for chronic and vaccine-preventable conditions. PPH rates in MH service users aged 20–29 were similar to population rates of people aged 60 and over. These substantial differences were not explained by socio-economic disadvantage. Conclusions PPHs for physical health conditions are substantially increased in people with MH conditions. Short term (12-month) PPH rates may be a useful lead indicator of increased physical morbidity and less accessible, integrated or effective health care. High hospitalisation rates for vaccine-preventable respiratory infections and hepatitis underline the importance of vaccination in MH service users and suggests potential benefits of prioritising this group for COVID-19 vaccination.

Abstract The severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is highly contagious, and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by it has forced many countries to adopt ‘lockdown’ measures to prevent the spread of the epidemic through social isolation of citizens. Some countries proposed universal mask wearing as a protection measure of public health to strengthen national prevention efforts and to limit the wider spread of the epidemic. In order to reveal the epidemic prevention efficacy of masks, this paper systematically evaluates the experimental studies of various masks and filter materials, summarises the general characteristics of the filtration efficiency of isolation masks with particle size, and reveals the actual efficacy of masks by combining the volume distribution characteristics of human exhaled droplets with different particle sizes and the SARS-CoV-2 virus load of nasopharynx and throat swabs from patients. The existing measured data show that the filtration efficiency of all kinds of masks for large particles and extra-large droplets is close to 100%. From the perspective of filtering the total number of pathogens discharged in the environment and protecting vulnerable individuals from breathing live viruses, the mask has a higher protective effect. If considering the weighted average filtration efficiency with different particle sizes, the filtration efficiencies of the N95 mask and the ordinary mask are 99.4% and 98.5%, respectively. The mask can avoid releasing active viruses to the environment from the source of infection, thus maximising the protection of vulnerable individuals by reducing the probability of inhaling a virus. Therefore, if the whole society strictly implements the policy of publicly wearing masks, the risk of large-scale spread of the epidemic can be greatly reduced. Compared with the overall cost of social isolation, limited personal freedoms and forced suspension of economic activities, the inconvenience for citizens caused by wearing masks is perfectly acceptable.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a COVID-19 pandemic last March 11, 2020.1,2 According to the WHO Director General, “In the past two weeks, the number of cases of COVID-19 outside China has increased 13-fold, and the number of affected countries has tripled. There are now more than 118,000 cases in 114 countries, and 4,291 people have lost their lives. Thousands more are fighting for their lives in hospitals.” Soon after, Metro Manila was placed on a complete lockdown which started on March 15, 2020 and continues up to the time of this writing.2 So, what exactly is this COVID-19 pandemic? Will it be changing how we live our lives as healthcare professionals? What will be our role in taking care of patients with COVID-19? These and many other related questions require immediate answers as we face the threat of COVID-19. The WHO was first informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan City, China near the end of 2019. A novel coronavirus was identified as the cause by Chinese authorities and was initially named 2019-nCoV.3,4 This was later revised to COVID-19 (coronavirus disease of 2019) and the virus that causes it called SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2). In the first global epidemic caused by the “first” SARS coronavirus in 2003, the Philippines had a total of only eight confirmed patients. All the cases had contact with a nurse aide who had returned from Toronto, Canada where she got it. The index case and her father eventually died from SARS while the rest recovered.5 But, with COVID-19, at the time of writing this editorial, there were approximately 1,611 weekly cases with 112 weekly deaths in the Philippines and appears to be an increasing trend.6,7 By mid-March 2020, the WHO European Region had become the epicenter of the epidemic, reporting over 40% of globally confirmed cases. As of 28 April 2020, 63% of global mortality from the virus was from the Region, according to the WHO.3 There is much that we need to know about SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. It belongs to the same family of coronavirus that causes SARS, MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), and even the common cold.3 Early studies report that SARS-CoV-2 was most often detected in respiratory samples from patients in China. However, live virus was also found in feces.8 It is thought that transmission mainly occurs through the respiratory route, probably as droplets, but extra respiratory sources may also be important. Risk factors for severe illness remain uncertain but old age and comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease, liver disease, kidney disease or malignant tumors, have emerged as likely important factors. There are no proven effective specific treatment strategies, and the risk-benefit ratio for commonly used treatments such as corticosteroids is not clear.7,8 COVID-19 may also cause damage to other organs such as the heart, the liver, and the kidneys, as well as to organ systems such as the blood and the immune system. Patients die of multiple organ failure, shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome, heart failure, arrhythmias, and renal failure.9,10 Among the WHO’s current recommendations, people with mild respiratory symptoms should be encouraged to isolate themselves, and social distancing is emphasized, and these recommendations apply even to countries with no reported cases.3,11 However, such measures could drastically affect the economy with impact on work practices as well as commercial establishments which depend on people’s patronage.12,13 Moreover, the psychological and mental burden that isolation and quarantine can bring about should also be considered. 14,15 For those in the academe, adjustments and quick transition to online learning strategies will need to be made.16 This will also affect how scientific research is done, particularly as we try to learn more about COVID-19.17 The longer the pandemic lasts, and the longer these measures need to be implemented, the more significant will the effects be on the economic and mental well-being of the people. There has certainly been a rush to get more information about COVID-19.18 Although well-intended in most cases, this has resulted into an “infodemic” with some erroneous or unscientific information about COVID-19. 19-21 Even mainstream scientific publications have not been spared by such faulty information. 22,23 Health professionals, therefore, who will be using the information found in these publications will need to be more vigilant in making sure that the data are properly collected and interpreted. We need to constantly update ourselves as new information becomes available.24-26 As in many viral diseases, the best way to combat COVID-19 could be vaccination. Based on the experience with developing vaccines for the other coronaviruses such as the ones causing SARS, MERS and even the common colds, the development of an effective vaccine against COVID-19 may be challenging.27-30 Even if one were to be quickly developed, having the resources needed to make enough vaccines for potentially all inhabitants of our planet are also staggering. And then of course, once a vaccine is available, each country would have to device its own vaccination strategy and all of its accompanying logistic considerations. And then there is the cost of such a vaccine. As a third world country, would the Philippines be able to afford enough vaccines for its citizens? Pending availability of an effective vaccine, one would need to look at actual treatment of COVID-19 patients. In the short-term, it may be possible to repurpose some of the currently available drugs we use for treating other viruses.31-33 In order to help address these, some wide-ranging initiatives have been set up. In March 2020, the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council and the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) started the RECOVERY (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy) trial.34,35 It is the world’s largest clinical trial into treatments for COVID-19, with more than 40,000 participants across 185 trials sites in the UK. It is led by the University of Oxford. At about the same time, the WHO also announced the start of an international randomized and adaptive clinical trial SOLIDARITY which will also be looking at potential treatments for COVID-19. 36,37 The Philippines is set to participate in the SOLIDARITY trial.38 Use of personal protective equipment (PPEs) similar to how we have used them against Ebola and other viruses could also be beneficial.39 But similar to developing capacity for making enough vaccines, the ability to make enough PPEs, especially the disposable ones and bring these to where they are needed could also be additional challenges. In the Philippines, as in many other parts of the world, many healthcare workers report insufficient availability of PPEs which puts them at risk of getting COVID-19 from their patients.40,41 There are many more questions needing answers that we will need to deal with as we confront COVID-19. And, most likely, there will also be new challenges that can arise as the pandemic evolves. The combined efforts of the scientific and political communities will need to be engaged if we hope to successfully deal with this emergency. Joven Jeremius Q. Tanchuco, MD, MHA Professor, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, College of Medicine, University of the Philippines Manila Clinical Professor, Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Medicine, College of Medicine and Philippine General Hospital, University of the Philippines Manila REFERENCES WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 [Internet]. 11 March 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 15]. Available from: https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020. Metro Manila to be placed on 'lockdown' due to COVID-19 [Internet]. [cited 2020 Apr 15]. Available from: https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/3/12/COVID-19-Metro-Manila-restrictions-Philippines.html Cucinotta D, Vanelli M. 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Viruses. 2019;11(1):59. doi:10.3390/v11010059 Enjuanes L, Zuñiga S, Castaño-Rodriguez C, Gutierrez-Alvarez J, Canton J, Sola I. MolecularBasis of Coronavirus Virulence and Vaccine Development. Adv Virus Res. 2016; 96:245-286.doi:10.1016/bs.aivir.2016.08.003 McPherson C, Chubet R, Holtz K, Honda-Okubo Y, Barnard D, Cox M, et al. Developmentof a SARS Coronavirus Vaccine from Recombinant Spike Protein Plus Delta Inulin Adjuvant. Methods Mol Biol. 2016; 1403:269-284. doi:10.1007/978-1-4939-3387-7_14 Md Insiat Islam Rabby. Current Drugs with Potential for Treatment of COVID-19: A Literature Review. J Pharm Pharm Sci. 2020;23(1):58-64. doi:10.18433/jpps31002 Tse LV, Meganck RM, Graham RL, Baric RS. The Current and Future State of Vaccines, Antivirals and Gene Therapies Against Emerging Coronaviruses. Front Microbiol. 2020; 11:658.doi:10.3389/fmicb.2020.00658 Hamid S, Mir MY, Rohela GK. Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): a pandemic(epidemiology, pathogenesis and potential therapeutics). New Microbes New Infect. 2020;35:100679. doi:10.1016/j.nmni.2020.100679 The RECOVERY trial [Internet]. [cited 2020 Apr 15]. Available from: https://www.ukri.org/our-work/tackling-the-impact-of-covid-19/vaccines-and-treatments/recovery-trial-identifies-covid-19-treatments/ RECOVERY [Internet]. [cited 2020 Apr 15]. Available from: https://www.recoverytrial.net/ UN health chief announces global ‘solidarity trial’ to jumpstart search for COVID-19 treatment [Internet]. [cited 2020 Apr 15]. Available ftom: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1059722 WHO COVID-19 Solidarity Therapeutics Trial [Internet]. [cited 2020 Apr 15]. Available from: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/global-research-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov/solidarity-clinical-trial-for-covid-19-treatments PH Solidarity trial for COVID-19 treatments receives green light from ethics review body [Internet]. [cited 2020 Apr 22]. Available from: https://www.who.int/philippines/news/detail/22-04-2020-ph-solidarity-trial-for-covid-19-treatments-receives-green-light-from-ethics-review-body Balachandar V, Mahalaxmi I, Kaavya J, Vivekanandhan G, Ajithkumar S, Arul N, et al.COVID-19: emerging protective measures. Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci. 2020;24(6):3422-3425. doi:10.26355/eurrev_202003_20713 Philippines: Country faces health and human rights crisis one year into the COVID-19 pandemic [Internet]. [cited 2020 Apr 28]. Available from: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2021/04/philippines-faces-health-human-rights-crisis-covid/. Shortage of personal protective equipment endangering health workers worldwide [Internet].[cited 2020 Apr 15]. Available from: https://www.who.int/news/item/03-03-2020-shortage-of-personal-protective-equipment-endangering-health-workers-worldwide.

Abstract Focus and outcomes for participants Modern technologies offer innovative ways of monitoring health outcomes. Electronic medical records (EMRs) stored in primary care databases provide comprehensive data on infectious and chronic conditions such as diagnosis, medications prescribed, vaccinations, laboratory results, and clinical assessments. Moreover, they allow the possibility of creating a retrospective cohort that can be tracked over time. This rich source of data can be used to generate results that support health policymakers to improve access, reduce health costs, and increase the quality of care. The symposium will discuss the use and future of routinely-collected EMR databases in monitoring health outcomes, using as an example studies based on the MedicineInsight program, a large general practice Australian database including more than 3.5 million patients. This symposium welcomes epidemiologists, researchers and health policymakers who are interested in primary care settings, big data analysis, and artificial intelligence. Rationale for the symposium, including for its inclusion in the Congress EMRs are becoming an important tool for monitoring health outcomes in different high-income countries and settings. However, most countries lack a national primary care database collating EMRs for research purposes. Monitoring of population health conditions is usually performed through surveys, surveillance systems, or census that tend to be expensive or performed over longer time intervals. In contrast, EMR databases are a useful and low-cost method to monitor health outcomes and have shown consistent results compared to other data sources. Although these databases only include individuals attending primary health settings, they tend to resemble the sociodemographic distribution from census data, as in countries such as Australia up to 90% of the population visit these services annually. Results from primary care-based EMRs can be used to inform practices and improve health policies. Analysis from EMRs can be used to identify, for example, those with undiagnosed medical conditions or patients who have not received recommended screenings or immunisations, therefore assessing the impact of government programmes. At a practice-level, healthcare staff can have better access to comprehensive patient histories, improving monitoring of people with certain conditions, such as chronic cardiac, respiratory, metabolic, neurological, or immunological diseases. This information provides feedback to primary care providers about the quality of their care and might help them develop targeted strategies for the most-needed areas or groups. Another benefit of EMRs is the possibility of using statistical modelling and machine learning to improve prediction of health outcomes and medical management, supporting general practitioners with decision making on the best management approach. In Australia, the MedicineInsight program is a large general practice database that since 2011 has been routinely collecting information from over 650 general practices varying in size, billing methods, and type of services offered, and from all Australian states and regions. In the last few years, diverse researchers have used MedicineInsight to investigate infectious and chronic diseases, immunization coverage, prescribed medications, medical management, and temporal trends in primary care. Despite being initially created for monitoring how medicines and medical tests are used, MedicineInsight has overcome some of the legal, ethical, social and resource-related barriers associated with the use of EMRs for research purposes through the involvement of a data governance committee responsible for the ethical, privacy and security aspects of any research using this data, and through applying data quality criteria to their data extraction. This symposium will discuss advances in the use of primary care databases for monitoring health outcomes using as an example the research activities performed based on the Australian MedicineInsight program. These discussions will also cover challenges in the use of this database and possible methodological innovations, such as statistical modelling or machine learning, that could be used to improve monitoring of the epidemiology and management of health conditions. Presentation program The use of large general practice databases for monitoring health outcomes in Australia: infectious and chronic conditions (Professor Nigel Stocks) How routinely collected electronic health records from MedicineInsight can help inform policy, research and health systems to improve health outcomes (Ms Rachel Hayhurst) Influenza-like illness in Australia: how can we improve surveillance systems in Australia using electronic medical records? (Dr Carla Bernardo) Long term use of opioids in Australian general practice (Dr David Gonzalez) Using routinely collected electronic health records to evaluate Quality Use of Medicines for women’s reproductive health (Dr Luke Grzeskowiak) The use of electronic medical records and machine learning to identify hypertensive patients and factors associated with controlled hypertension (Ms Jackie Roseleur) Names of presenters Professor Nigel Stocks, The University of Adelaide Ms Rachel Hayhurst, NPS MedicineWise Dr Carla Bernardo, The University of Adelaide Dr David Gonzalez-Chica, The University of Adelaide Dr Luke Grzeskowiak, The University of Adelaide Ms Jackie Roseleur, The University of Adelaide

ObjectiveTo investigate epidemiological features and identify high relative risk space-time Intestinal infectious diseases clusters at the township level in Beijing city in order to provide the scientific evidence for making prevention and control measures.IntroductionIntestinal infectious diseases (IID) is a common cause of illness in the community and results in a high burden of consultations to general practice, mostly affecting the health of infants, preschool children, young adults and elderly people, especially those living in low income countries. According to the published study on the global burden of disease, intestinal infectious diseases were responsible for 221,300 deaths worldwide in 2013. The Chinese Ministry of Health has listed bacillary dysentery, amebic dysentery, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever as notifiable Class-B communicable diseases and other infectious diarrhea as notifiable Class-C communicable diseases to be included in the surveillance system and reporting network since 2004. Many studies of IID in different regions have been published. However, the epidemiological characteristics and space-time patterns of individual-level IID cases in a major city such as Beijing are still unknown. We aim to analyze the epidemiology features and identify space-time clusters of Beijing IID at a fine spatial scale in this study.MethodsData collection. Data on IID cases in the 2008-2010 period were provided by Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, China, including basic social-demographic information and clinical diagnosis (mainly including upper respiratory tract infection, indigestion, gastrointestinal disorders, bacillary dysentery, amebic dysentery, typhoid fever, paratyphoid fever and other infectious diarrhea). The demographic data for each township was calculated based on 2010 census data and the data published in the Beijing Statistical Yearbook.Epidemiological analysis. The home addresses from IID case records were matched to the geographic coordinates of the township level divisions. Age-gender incidence of IID (1/100,000) was defined as the number of IID cases in each age-gender group divided by the population size of that age-gender group. Total incidence was defined as the total number of IID cases divided by the average population size during the study period.Space-time analysis. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis based on Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) was used to measure the spatial autocorrelation of IID incidence. The High-High and Low-Low townships suggested the clustering of similar values for IID incidence, whereas the Low-High and High-Low townships indicated spatial outliers. The spatial and space-time scan statistics combined the covariates (gender and age) method were used to reveal the space-time clusters of Beijing IID.ResultsEpidemiological features. A total of 561,199 individual-level IID cases were reported in Beijing in the period, in which 95 cases without the township information. 22.1% (124,025) of the cases were in the 0 to 4-year age group. Secondly 21.8% (122,345) were in the 50+-year age group. Next 13.17% were in the 25 to 29-year age group (73,931) and 11.9% were in the 20 to 24-year age group (66,787). Among the total IID cases, 307,920 were male, and 253,278 were female. The average male-to-female sex ratio was 1.22. Total IID incidence was 1003.54 /100,000 (1035.16 in 2008, 992.67 in 2009 and 985.30 in 2010). Total IID age-specific incidence in the 0 to 4-year age group (19,004.95) was the highest, followed by 3267.40 in the 25 to 29-year age group. The sex ratio of IID cases varied among the different age-gender groups. For the 50+-year age group, the incidence in female was higher than that in male. However, for the other age groups, the incidence in female was usually lower. The monthly distribution of IID cases exhibited significant seasonality and periodicity. The annual peaks in incidence mostly occurred between May and July. The annual number of IID cases was the lowest (183,326) in 2008 and the greatest (193,237) in 2010.Space-time Patterns. LISA analysis found that the borders between old city (Xicheng and Dongcheng) and urban districts (Haidian, Chaoyang, Shijingshan and Fengtai) showed the clear High-High positive spatial association for IID incidence. Rural areas (Yanqing, Huairou, Miyun and Pinggu) and outlying districts (the west of Mentougou and Fangshan, the southeast of Daxing and Tongzhou) showed the stable Low-Low positive spatial association for IID incidence. The townships showing Low-Low negative spatial association were mainly distributed in the urban-rural transition zones around the old city, while the High-Low spatial outliers mainly scattered in Xinggu county of Pinggu and Shahe town of Changping.Detected spatial scan clusters varied from year to year. The most likely clusters occurred in 15 townships around Chongwenmenwai of Dongcheng district (2008, Relative risk (RR) = 9.39, Log likelihood ratio (LLR) = 53927.93, P-value (P) < 0.001), Donghuamen and Qianmen of Dongcheng district (2009, RR = 35.01, LLR = 53286.52, P < 0.001), Donghuamen of Dongcheng district (2010, RR= 43.83, LLR = 62674.76, P < 0.001). The most likely space-time cluster (RR = 41.3, P < 0.001) was located in Donghuamen and Qianmen of Dongcheng district during the period from 2009/5/1 to 2010/10/31. The secondary space-time clusters (RR = 2.02, P < 0.001) were mainly scattered in the west part of Beijing including 133 townships during the period from 2010/6/1 to 2010/9/30.ConclusionsThe detected locations and space-time patterns of Beijing IID clusters are important for the local health officials to determine the source of the cluster to design effective prevention strategies and interventions against Beijing IID. The variations in Beijing IID epidemics over population, space, and time that were revealed by this study emphasize the need for more thorough research about the driving forces and risk factors (climate, geography, environment, and social-economic) that contribute to prevent and control Beijing IID outbreaks.ReferencesAbubakar I I et al. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet, 2015, 385(9963): 117-171.Ghoshal U C et al. The role of the microbiome and the use of probiotics in gastrointestinal disorders in adults in the Asia-Pacific region background and recommendations of a regional consensus meeting. Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology, 2018, 33(1): 57-69.