Дисертації: "Electricity future"

1

Costley, Mitcham Hudson. "Prosumer-based decentralized unit commitment for future electricity grids." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/54890.

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The contributions of this research are a scalable formulation and solution method for decentralized unit commitment, experimental results comparing decentralized unit commitment solution times to conventional unit commitment methods, a demonstration of the benefits of faster unit commitment computation time, and extensions of decentralized unit commitment to handle system network security constraints. We begin with a discussion motivating the shift from centralized power system control architectures to decentralized architectures and describe the characteristics of such an architecture. We then develop a formulation and solution method to solve decentralized unit commitment by adapting an existing approach for separable convex optimization problems to the nonconvex domain of unit commitment. The potential computational speed benefits of the novel decentralized unit commitment approach are then further investigated through a rolling-horizon framework that represents how system operators make decisions and adjustments online as new information is revealed. Finally, the decentralized unit commitment approach is extended to include network contingency constraints, a crucial function for the maintenance of system security. The results indicate decentralized unit commitment holds promise as a way of coordinating system operations in a future decentralized grid and also may provide a way to leverage parallel computing resources to solve large-scale unit commitment problems with greater speed and model fidelity than is possible with conventional methods.

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2

Baker, John Leon. "Planning the future of the electricity supply industry 1935-48." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.642947.

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3

Hernando, Gil Ignacio. "Integrated assessment of quality of supply in future electricity networks." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/9641.

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Although power system reliability analysis is a mature research area, there is a renewed interest in updating available network models and formulating improved reliability assessment procedures. The main driver of this interest is the current transition to a new flexible and actively controlled power supply system with a high penetration of distributed generation (DG) and energy storage (ES) technologies, wider implementation of demand-side management (DSM) and application of automated control, monitoring, protection and communication infrastructures. One of the aims of this new electricity supply network (’the smart grid’) is an improved reliability and power quality performance, realised through the delivery of an uninterrupted and high-quality supply of electrical energy. However, there is currently no integrated methodology to measure the effects of these changes on the overall system reliability performance. This PhD research aims to update the standard power system simulation engine with improved numerical software models offering new capabilities for the correct assessment of quality of supply in future electricity networks. The standard reliability analysis is extended to integrate some relevant power quality aspects, enabling the classification of short and long supply interruptions by the correct modelling of network protection and reconfiguration schemes. In addition, the work investigates the formulation and analysis of updated reliability indicators for a more accurate validation and benchmarking of both system and end-user performance. A detailed database with typical configurations and parameters of UK/European power systems is established, providing a set of generic models that can correctly represent actual distribution networks supplying a mix of residential, commercial and industrial demand for different load sectors. A general methodology for reducing system complexity by calculating both electrical and reliability equivalent models of LV and MV distribution networks is also presented. These equivalent models, based on the aggregation of individual component models, help to reduce calculation times while preserving the accuracy assessment of network’s reliability performance at bulk supply points. In addition, the aggregated counterparts (same and mixed-type) of different ’smart’ component models (DG, ES and DSM) are also included in the analysis, showing how their co-ordinated implementation and control could improve quality of supply. Conventional reliability assessment procedures are also extended in this thesis to include accurate reliability equivalent models, network contingency statistics, actual load profiles and empirical fault probability distributions, which are employed to assess the frequency and duration of interruptions in the supply system for different scenarios. Both analytical and probabilistic simulation techniques (Monte Carlo method) are developed to include up-to-date security of supply legislation, introducing a new methodology for calculating the standard set of indices reported annually to energy regulators.

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4

Babajide, Nathaniel Akinrinde. "The electricity crisis in Nigeria : building a new future to accommodate 20% renewable electricity generation by 2030." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2017. https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/7c6df776-e790-4afc-8970-3877d91a2663.

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As part of efforts to curb the protracted electricity problem in Nigeria, the government enacted the National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP) in 2014. Through this policy, the country plans to increase its electricity generation from renewables to 20% by 2030. This thesis investigates the economic feasibility of this lofty goal, and as well determine the best hybrid configuration for off-grid rural/remote power generation across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria The economic feasibility results, using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) tool, show that the 20% renewables goal in the Nigerian power generation mix by 2030 is economically feasible but will require vast investment, appropriate supportive mechanisms, both fiscal and non-fiscal (especially for solar PV) and unalloyed commitment on the part of the government. Moreover, the techno-economic results with Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER) reveal Small hydro/Solar PV/Diesel generator/Battery design as the most cost-effective combination for power supply in remote/rural areas of Nigeria. Findings also highlight the better performance of this system in terms of fuel consumption and GHGs emission reduction. Lastly, the study identifies factors influencing RE development, and offers strategic and policy suggestions to advance RE deployment in Nigeria.

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5

Themann, Michael. "A green future for European electricity? Energy sources, policies and further determinants of the household price of electricity." Master's thesis, NSBE - UNL, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9771.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
There is a controversial debate on how the transition towards electricity generation from re-newable energy sources (RES-E) affects European electricity markets in terms of prices and market efficiency. This thesis contributes to this debate by providing the first panel economet-ric analysis of how both different sources of electricity generation and electricity market poli-cies impact on the household price of electricity. Based on a sample of 29 European countries (EU-27 and two more), it finds that electricity production from combustible sources, natural gas, hydro and wind for the time span of 1991-2007 had a significant price lowering effect (ceteris paribus, on average). In contrast to that, results for the time span of 2004-2007 suggest that RES-E had a price increasing effect which can be related to its rapid growth in the 2000s. Results also suggest that Feed-in-Tariffs, regulatory reforms and the European emission trad-ing scheme play an important role, but their impact depends on country specific characteris-tics. The latter seem to be an important factor in determining the level of prices.

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6

Tumilty, Ryan M. "A study of adaptive protection methods for future electricity distribution systems." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2013. http://oleg.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=20408.

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The traditional transmission centric approach to generation connection using large-scale thermal units is evolving as the electricity supply industry and end users both move to play their part in tackling climate change. Government targets and financial incentive mechanisms have created a generation portfolio that is becoming more diverse as both large and small-scale distributed generation projects are commissioned. The net result of these events is that generation now appears across all voltage levels and is a trend that is almost certainly set to continue. Moreover, the manner in which networks are operated is also changing to become more flexible with novel management intended to facilitate the dispersed connection of generation, whilst at the same time improving the quality of supply for end users. As a consequence of the foregoing changes, new challenges emerge with regard to guaranteeing that the performance of power system protection is not degraded. This thesis documents research that has considered the myriad of issues arising throughout distribution networks. The concept of adaptive protection has been explored as a solution to many of these issues as a means of ensuring that protection better reflects the current state of the primary power system. Although adaptive protection has been a theoretical possibility for some time it has not generally been applied in practice. The emerging drivers that could change this have been considered along with the challenges of its application. It was concluded from this work that the concept and structure for adapting protection needs to be examined in abstraction from the underlying low level protection algorithms. A layered architecture has been proposed that helps to structure process of adaptation, define key functionality and ultimately clarify how it could be practically realised using currently available substation protection and automation equipment. To demonstrate the application of the architecture two examples have been used that cover both low and high voltage networks. The first considers a low voltage microgrid and the difficulties resulting from inverter interfaced microgeneration. As a second example, the problem of intentionally islanding an area of high voltage network is considered. Taken together, these two examples cover a range of future scenarios that could emerge within so called smart grids.

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7

Avagyan, Vitali. "Essays on risk and profitability in the future British electricity industry." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/49204.

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This thesis analyses risk and profitability issues in the future British electricity industry through three different studies. The first study develops a novel and fully endogenous portfolio investment model for firms in a competitive electricity industry when they face uncertainties from fuel prices, demand levels, carbon price and renewable penetration. This study finds that both risk aversion and carbon price are crucial factors for investments in nuclear technology. The second study analyses the impact of the cost of capital on optimal investments. Two distinct costs of capital of a project are considered: one in the pre-development and construction (pre-operation) phase and the other in the operation phase. The pre-operation cost of capital is based on the complex and capital-intensive nature of a project, which prevents potential investors from undertaking them under high costs – this is the first driving force for investment followed by the operation cost of capital. Operation cost of capital is based on a company’s ability to generate cash flows that cover debt requirements by varying the debt-equity ratio that a firm can attain. The greater the cash-flow risk, the lower is the level of debt that the firm can include in its financing, and hence, the higher the weighted average cost of capital, given that debt generally benefits from tax shield. The third study analyses the profit risk of energy storage when it faces fuel-price risk. Specifically, it assesses the future electricity industry with different levels of renewable penetration and storage energy capacity. The study shows that energy storage profits depend on the electricity price risk when it makes profits from arbitrage and reserve provision and also shows that storage profit has a positive correlation with that of other generators, especially with profits of gas stations, and this correlation is moderated with the level of electricity demand.

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8

Vaniš, Zdeněk. "Electricity Smart Metering in the Czech Republic: Status and Future Challenges." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-73427.

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This work deals with technology and innovation management issues on the particular case of electricity smart metering in the Czech Republic. The popular literature on this topic is not reflecting on industries with high level of regulation in demand determination, which is the precise case of this industry. Positions of distribution network operators, technology suppliers, end-consumers and the regulatory players are analyzed. Comparison with other European countries is shown with market development predictions also taking part of the analysis. The outcome of this work reflects on the 2012 decision of the regulatory authority in the Czech Republic, which is to decide on a mandatory roll-out of this technology. This work presents the path towards this decision and discusses the potential outcomes.

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9

Atilgan, Burcin. "Assessing the sustainability of current and future electricity options for Turkey." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2016. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/assessing-the-sustainability-of-current-and-future-electricity-options-for-turkey(e6fb2e6f-bab4-47ac-a40a-0bef743ab867).html.

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This research has assessed the environmental, economic and social sustainability of electricity generation in Turkey to contribute towards a better understanding of the overall sustainability impacts of the electricity sector and of possible future scenarios. The assessment of environmental sustainability has been carried out using life cycle assessment; capital, annualised and levelised costs have been used for the economic sustainability and various social indicators along the life cycle of the technologies have been estimated for the social assessment. Multi-criteria decision analysis has been carried out to integrate the three dimensions of sustainability for current electricity generation and future scenarios as well as to help with decision-making. The sustainability assessment of current electricity generation considers all the options present in the Turkish electricity mix: coal (lignite, hard coal), gas, hydro (large and small scale reservoir, run-of-river), onshore wind and geothermal. Each technology has been assessed and compared using 20 sustainability indicators, addressing 11 environmental, three economic and six social aspects. The findings suggest that trade-offs are needed, as each technology is better for some sustainability indicators but worse for others. For example, coal has the highest environmental impacts, except for ozone depletion for which gas is the worst option; gas is the cheapest in terms of capital costs but it provides the lowest direct employment and has the highest levelised costs. Geothermal is the best option for six environmental impacts but has the highest capital cost. Large reservoir has the lowest depletion of elements and fossil resources as well as acidification. Moreover, large reservoir is the cheapest option in terms of levelised costs and the best option for worker injuries and fatalities but provides the lowest life cycle employment. The results for the current electricity sector show that electricity generation in Turkey is responsible for around 111 million tonnes of CO2 eq. emissions annually. Total capital costs of the current electricity sector of Turkey are estimated at US$69 billion, with hydropower, coal and gas plants contributing together to 96%. Total annualised costs are equal to US$26 billion per year, of which fuel costs contribute nearly 64%. The levelised costs for the Turkish electricity generation are estimated at 123 US$/MWh. The social assessment results indicate that the electricity sector in Turkey provided 57,000 jobs. A total of 3670 worker injuries and 15 fatalities are also estimated related to the electricity sector annually. A range of future electricity generation scenarios has been developed for the year 2050 considering different mixes, carbon emission targets and generation options, including fossil-fuel technologies with and without carbon capture and storage, nuclear and a range of renewable options. Overall, business-as-usual scenarios are the least sustainable options to meet the country’s electricity demand in the future. Despite the fact that these scenarios have the lowest costs, their poor environmental and social performances make them the worst options. Increasing the contribution from renewables and nuclear power translates to a better sustainability performance. The scenario with the highest penetration of these options (C-3) is found to be the most sustainable option in this work. Although the most renewable intensive scenario (C-4) scores as the second best option overall, it performs poorly for the economic categories. The trade-offs between the different sustainability indicators highlighted by the results of this research illustrate that assessments of a range of environmental, economic and social impacts from different electricity technologies and scenarios should be considered when planning sustainability strategies for the electricity sector.

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10

Saers, Pauline. "Future Impacts of Variable Renewable Power Production : An analysis of future scenarios effects on electricity supply and demand." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Fasta tillståndets fysik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-256790.

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Many scenarios try to describe a future of supply and demand for electricity in Sweden. All the studied scenarios contain an increased amount of variable renewable energy (VRE) power production. VRE power sources, such as solar and wind power, depend on weather conditions, like solar irradiance and wind speed. There are also scenarios predicting an increased amount of plug-in electrical vehicles (PEVs), which charge their batteries from the electricity grid and thereby changes the consumption patterns. In a future power system with less nuclear power and increased VRE power production it is of interest to investigate the scenarios impact on supply and demand. The scenarios were compiled into cases for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. Simulations of each case VRE shares resulted in hourly power production data. Aggregating the data and comparing it with the consumption gives an understanding of the power and regulation need. For Case 2030, a VRE share of 10.3% was calculated. The hydropower in Sweden could cover the power need for the whole year and even peaks in demand. For the larger shares of Case 2050 and 2100, hydropower was not able to cover peaks in power demand solemnly. The consumption of PEVs was small for all cases, reaching shares of 1.5% to 7.1%, compared to the consumption of all other sectors. Considering short-term statistics for wind power and the latest news that some of Sweden’s nuclear reactors might shut down in advance, it is possible that Case 2030 might occur sooner than predicted. If larger shares of VRE power have to be produced to meet consumer needs in the near future, grid-stabilizing measures has to be investigated.

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11

Terblanche, Michelle. "The future impact of the current electricity crisis on Sasol South Africa." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/18178.

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Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2008.
Towards the end of 2007, South Africa started experiencing widespread rolling electricity blackouts as the electricity demand exceeded the supply from energy giant Eskom. The crisis reached its tipping point when industries, including Sasol, were requested to reduce their electricity consumption by 10%. The purpose of this research was to identify alternative futures for Sasol in the light of the current electricity crisis. The scenario process was used to develop the following independent scenarios for Sasol: • Fuel to the fire. The country is amidst an ongoing nationwide electricity crisis and Sasol is still dependent on Eskom for more than 50% of its electricity demand. The end result is reduced turnover, shortage of liquid fuels and a decrease in Sasol’s contribution to the economy. • Ignorance is bliss. This is a world where Sasol is independent of Eskom for electricity supply despite the country’s continuing electricity crisis. Independence is ideal but unfortunately it comes at a cost. It is about taking painful action in the near term to forestall even more painful consequences in the future. • Blessing in disguise. Sasol is dependent on Eskom for the majority of its electricity requirement. The reliability of electricity supply in South Africa recovered and there is an overall awareness regarding energy efficiency and a positive adoption of alternative energy technologies. • Icing on the cake. Sasol is completely independent of Eskom and Eskom managed to restore the integrity of electricity supply. The end result, Sasol can continue with its planned growth and expansion. In order for the scenarios to be useful for Sasol, it is necessary to incorporate them into the strategic agenda. Some considerations include the gradual replacement of traditional fossil fuels, carbon capture and sequestration, advanced coal electricity generation (clean coal technology), increasing the use of renewable energy sources and developing the hydrogen economy.

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12

Santoyo, Castelazo Edgar. "Sustainability assessment of electricity options for Mexico : current situation and future scenarios." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2011. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/sustainability-assessment-of-electricity-options-for-mexicocurrent-situation-and-future-scenarios(5be5bc3d-5e28-4d53-b7f3-2ebc1c1ba341).html.

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The aim of this research has been to identify the most sustainable options for electricity production in Mexico with an outlook to 2050. An integrated methodology for sustainability assessment of different electricity technologies and scenarios has been developed, taking into account environmental, economic and social aspects. The environmental impacts have been estimated using life cycle assessment; the economic costs considered include total capital and annualised costs while social aspects include security and diversity of energy supply, public acceptability, health and safety impacts and intergenerational issues. To help identify the most sustainable options, multi-criteria decision analysis has been used. The methodology has been applied to Mexican conditions for the assessment of both current and future electricity production. The results for the current situation show that on a life cycle basis 129 million tonnes of CO2 eq. are emitted annually from 225 TWh of electricity generated in Mexico. Heavy fuel oil, gas and coal power plants contribute together to 87% of CO2 eq. emissions. Total annualised costs are estimated at US$ 22.4 billion/yr with the fuel costs contributing 54%, mainly due to the operation of gas and heavy fuel oil power plants. A range of future scenarios up to 2050 has been developed in an attempt to identify the most sustainable options. The development of the scenarios has been driven and informed by the national greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 50% by 2050 on the 2000 levels, translating to an 85% reduction from the power sector. The results show that the business as usual (BAU) scenario (with the highest contribution from fossil fuels) is the least sustainable option with the CO2 eq. emissions increasing by almost 300% and the annualised costs by 290% for a projected electricity demand of 813 TWh in 2050. Overall, the most sustainable scenarios are those with higher penetration of renewable energies (wind, solar and hydro) and nuclear power, as in Green, A-3 and C-3. For example, compared to the BAU scenarios, the CO2 eq. emissions reduce by 84%, 89% and 89%, respectively. Although renewable energy based scenarios require high capital costs, the total annualised costs even out over time due to lower fuel costs. The lowest annualised costs are for C-3 scenario, representing a 40% reduction on BAU. With respect to social issues, the BAU scenario is also the least preferred option with the highest risks related to security and diversity of supply, health and safety and climate change. The most sustainable options are scenarios A-3 and Green, with social barriers related to public acceptability, reliability of supply and availability of energy resource. Most critical aspects for scenario C-3 are health and safety risks, and intergenerational issues related to nuclear power. Therefore, the Mexican Government should aim to strengthen the current low carbon energy policies as well as put measures in place to encourage reducing the electricity demand. In the case of the energy policy driver focusing on climate change mitigation or annualised costs, scenarios A-3 and C-3 are the most sustainable options.

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13

Kvalheim, Miles R. "Residental Electricity Demand: An Analysis of the Current and Future United States Electricity Grid and Its Impact on Power Consumption." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2012. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/352.

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The nature of electrical power requires specific infrastructure in order to operate adequately. Currently, the United States electricity grid contains a number of bottlenecking inefficiencies that arise from the aging infrastructure of the system. This paper examines the current state of the United States electricity grid, how potential changes in weather variables can affect the electricity consumption of residential consumers, and how implementation of Smart Grid technology can potentially mitigate these issues. It is determined through regression analysis that each weather variable that was tested proves significant for at least one of the consumers compared. This indicates that there is an enormous magnitude of individual variables that factor into residential electricity consumption and that more efficient and integrated electricity practices are necessary to optimize efficiency.

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14

Fleschurz, René Patrick. "Renewable electricity generation in the Eurpean Union : Best practice, drawbacks and future challenges." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Sektionen för planering och mediedesign, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-5534.

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This paper gives a general review on renewable electricity production in the European Union based on the example of Sweden, Denmark and Germany. It gives the answer to the question which forms of renewable electricity production are competitive in Europe and why. Furthermore it describes how and why renewables are used in different member states of the EU. This review is based on existing literature on the subject, statistical data of national and international organisations and departments as well as recent articles in journals and newspapers. As a result it becomes clear that there are different boundaries to the use of renewable electricity production in the EU due to specific demands for an economic use. But even though these demands are met, the success of renewable electricity production depends on several factors like the historic development and the supply of fossil resources, political support or external events such as the oil crisis. It also becomes clear that the use of renewables can cause environmental problems (hydropower) or problems in the field of security of supply (grid stability). One can draw the conclusion that countries with a continuous support system in the past are performing well in the objective to increase the share of power produced by renewables and serve as good example for countries lagging behind in this goal.

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15

Zhou, Huafeng, and 周華鋒. "Design of grid service-based power system control centers for future electricity systems." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2008. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B40687429.

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16

Bosson, Christopher John. "Understanding Cu₂ZnSnS₄ as a photovoltaic absorber for the future of solar electricity." Thesis, Durham University, 2018. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/12586/.

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The world needs solar electricity to replace a large fraction of traditional, fossil-fuel-generated electricity over the coming decades if it is to avoid the worst effects of climate change and continue to meet the needs of an increasingly energy-dependent society. This transition is currently well underway. The installed generating capacity of solar electricity continues to grow exponentially, having reached 307 GW in 2016 (2 % of average global electricity demand), which means that replacing a large majority of fossil fuel use, requiring several terawatts of capacity, in the coming decades is entirely realistic. Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS) is a potential material for the absorber layer in photovoltaic solar cells. It has the advantages over silicon, which currently provides 95 % of the solar electricity market, of lower processing costs and a direct band gap, which means much less material is required. Most other alternative absorber materials will ultimately be limited by high material costs, low elemental abundances, or toxicity, but CZTS has none of these problems, making it a very promising material indeed. However, its record photovoltaic efficiency (11.0 %) is well below those of some other materials (>20 %) because of low open-circuit voltage. The outstanding areas of current CZTS research are the absorber-buffer interface, band gap fluctuations caused by point defects, and secondary phases. This thesis presents work investigating the latter two, primarily using bulk samples fabricated by solid-state reaction. Firstly, compositional, structural, and optoelectronic analysis techniques were used to study the effect of composition on material properties. It was found that the quasi-ternary phase diagram commonly used for CZTS is incorrect; and that no common analysis technique can quantify cation disorder in CZTS, despite Raman spectroscopy commonly being used to do so. Secondly, neutron diffraction was used to study the order-disorder phase transition at around 550 K. It was found that the transition temperature is dependent on elemental composition; and that Cu-Zn disorder is present on all cation lattice sites, not merely the 2c and 2d sites of the kesterite crystal structure as has previously been assumed. Thirdly, anomalous X-ray diffraction was used to study cation disorder further. It was found that two distinct phases of CZTS can be present in the same sample, with different elemental compositions resulting from the prevalence of different point defect complexes; two new such types of CZTS were identified; and a mechanism of phase formation was proposed. Finally, a fabrication route for thin-film CZTS by sputtering and sulphurisation annealing was established.

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17

Sawyer, Charles. "Meeting Future Electricity Needs in the East African Community : Mapping Renewable Energy Potential." Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-284462.

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The East African Community (EAC) is an intergovernmental organisation comprised of six countries, five of which are classed as having a low development level and one of which is classed as medium. The region has low rates of human development and electrical connectivity but is committed to meeting the universal access and clean energy goals of Sustainable Development Goal 7. This thesis seeks to explore the renewable energy potential of the EAC at a regional level. There is little study of the energy situation of the EAC as a specific region, contrasting this work to the majority of similar analyses that focus on the national or sub-Saharan level. The potential for solar PV and wind power in the EAC was examined through an analysis of existing energy systems, a simplified multi-criteria analysis through geographical information systems, and a comparison with similar work by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The region was shown to have a small but growing electricity sector and a primary energy system dominated by traditional biomass. The mapping analysis identified large areas across all studied countries as potentially suitable for on- or off-grid renewable energy. It also highlighted issues with the results of IRENA’s work in its current form. Solar PV and wind energy potential across the EAC is shown to be high, with a low carbon electricity sector consequently a possibility for the region in the future.
Den Östafrikanska Gemenskapen (EAC) är en mellanstatlig organisation av sex länder. Fem av de länderna har en låg utvecklingsnivå och en är klassificerad som medelnivå. Regionen har låg mänsklig utveckling och tillgång till elkraft men har bestämt att uppfylla globala målen 7: säkerställa tillgång till ekonomiskt överkomlig, tillförlitlig, hållbar och modern energi för alla. Denna uppsats utforskade potentialen för förnybar energi i den EAC på en regional nivå. Potentialen för solenergi och vindkraft i EAC undersöktes genom en analys av befintliga energisystem, en förenklad multikriterianalys genom geografiska informationssystem (GIS) och en jämförelse med liknande arbete från den International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). En liten men växande elsektor och ett primärt energisystem dominerat av traditionell biomassa identifierades i regionen. Kartläggningsanalysen identifierade stora områden i alla studerade länder som lämpliga för förnybar energi på, eller utanför, elnätet. Analysen fann också problem med resultaten från IRENAs arbete med Global Atlas of Renewable Energy projektet. Det finns god potential för sol- och vindkraft i EAC och möjligheten av ett lågkoldioxidenergisystem är diskuterade som en potential framtid för regionen.

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18

CARON, MATHIEU. "Long-term forecasting model for future electricity consumption in French non-interconnected territories." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-299457.

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In the context of decarbonizing the electricity generation of French non-interconnected territories, the knowledge of future electricity demand, in particular annual and peak demand in the long-term, is crucial to design new renewable energy infrastructures. So far, these territories, mainly islands located in the Pacific and Indian ocean, relies mainly on fossil fuels powered facilities. Energy policies envision to widely develop renewable energies to move towards a low-carbon electricity mix by 2028. This thesis focuses on the long-term forecasting of hourly electricity demand. A methodology is developed to design and select a model able to fit accurately historical data and to forecast future demand in these particular territories. Historical data are first analyzed through a clustering analysis to identify trends and patterns, based on a k-means clustering algorithm. Specific calendar inputs are then designed to consider these first observations. External inputs, such as weather data, economic and demographic variables, are also included. Forecasting algorithms are selected based on the literature and they are than tested and compared on different input datasets. These input datasets, besides the calendar and external variables mentioned, include different number of lagged values, from zero to three. The combination of model and input dataset which gives the most accurate results on the testing set is selected to forecast future electricity demand. The inclusion of lagged values leads to considerable improvements in accuracy. Although gradient boosting regression features the lowest errors, it is not able to detect peaks of electricity demand correctly. On the contrary, artificial neural network (ANN) demonstrates a great ability to fit historical data and demonstrates a good accuracy on the testing set, as well as for peak demand prediction. Generalized additive model, a relatively new model in the energy forecasting field, gives promising results as its performances are close to the one of ANN and represent an interesting model for future research. Based on the future values of inputs, the electricity demand in 2028 in Réunion was forecasted using ANN. The electricity demand is expected to reach more than 2.3 GWh and the peak demand about 485 MW. This represents a growth of 12.7% and 14.6% respectively compared to 2019 levels.
I samband med utfasningen av fossila källor för elproduktion i franska icke-sammankopplade territorier är kunskapen om framtida elbehov, särskilt årlig förbrukning och topplast på lång sikt, avgörande för att utforma ny infrastruktur för förnybar energi. Hittills är dessa territorier, främst öar som ligger i Stilla havet och Indiska oceanen, beroende av anläggningar med fossila bränslen. Energipolitiken planerar att på bred front utveckla förnybar energi för att gå mot en koldioxidsnål elmix till 2028. Denna avhandling fokuserar på den långsiktiga prognosen för elbehov per timme. En metod är utvecklad för att utforma och välja en modell som kan passa korrekt historisk data och för att förutsäga framtida efterfrågan inom dessa specifika områden. Historiska data analyseras först genom en klusteranalys för att identifiera trender och mönster, baserat på en k-means klusteralgoritm. Specifika kalenderinmatningar utformas sedan för att beakta dessa första observationer. Externa inmatningar, såsom väderdata, ekonomiska och demografiska variabler, ingår också. Prognosalgoritmer väljs utifrån litteraturen och de testas och jämförs på olika inmatade dataset. Dessa inmatade dataset, förutom den nämnda kalenderdatan och externa variabler, innehåller olika antal fördröjda värden, från noll till tre. Kombinationen av modell och inmatat dataset som ger de mest exakta resultaten på testdvärdena väljs för att förutsäga framtida elbehov. Införandet av fördröjda värden leder till betydande förbättringar i exakthet. Även om gradientförstärkande regression har de lägsta felen kan den inte upptäcka toppar av elbehov korrekt. Tvärtom, visar artificiella neurala nätverk (ANN) en stor förmåga att passa historiska data och visar en god noggrannhet på testuppsättningen, liksom för förutsägelse av toppefterfrågan. En generaliserad tillsatsmodell, en relativt ny modell inom energiprognosfältet, ger lovande resultat eftersom dess prestanda ligger nära den för ANN och representerar en intressant modell för framtida forskning. Baserat på de framtida värdena på indata, prognostiserades elbehovet 2028 i Réunion med ANN. Elbehovet förväntas nå mer än 2,3 GWh och toppbehovet cirka 485 MW. Detta motsvarar en tillväxt på 12,7% respektive 14,6% jämfört med 2019 års nivåer.

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19

Tee, Chin Yen. "Market Design for the Future Electricity Grid: Modeling Tools and Investment Case Studies." Research Showcase @ CMU, 2017. http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/856.

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The future electricity grid is likely to be increasingly complex and uncertain due to the introduction of new technologies in the grid, the increased use of control and communication infrastructure, and the uncertain political climate. In recent years, the transactive energy market framework has emerged as the key framework for future electricity market design in the electricity grid. However, most of the work done in this area has focused on developing retail level transactive energy markets. There seems to be an underlying assumption that wholesale electricity markets are ready to support any retail market design. In this dissertation, we focus on designing wholesale electricity markets that can better support transactive retail market. On the highest level, this dissertation contributes towards developing tools and models for future electricity market designs. A particular focus is placed on the relationship between wholesale markets and investment planning. Part I of this dissertation uses relatively simple models and case studies to evaluate key impediments to flexible transmission operation. In doing so, we identify several potential areas of concern in wholesale market designs: 1. There is a lack of consideration of demand flexibility both in the long-run and in the short-run 2. There is a disconnect between operational practices and investment planning 3. There is a need to rethink forward markets to better manage resource adequacy under long-term uncertainties 4. There is a need for more robust modeling tools for wholesale market design In Part II and Part III of this dissertation, we make use of mathematical decomposition and agent-based simulations to tackle these concerns. Part II of this dissertation uses Benders Decomposition and Lagrangian Decomposition to spatially and temporally decompose a power system and operation problem with active participation of flexible loads. In doing so, we are able to not only improve the computational efficiency of the problem, but also gain various insights on market structure and pricing. In particular, the decomposition suggests the need for a coordinated investment market and forward energy market to bridge the disconnect between operational practices and investment planning. Part III of this dissertation combines agent-based modeling with state-machine based modeling to test various spot, forward, and investment market designs, including the coordinated investment market and forward energy market proposed in Part II of this dissertation. In addition, we test a forward energy market design where 75% of load is required to be purchased in a 2-year-ahead forward market and various transmission cost recovery strategies. We demonstrate how the different market designs result in different investment decisions, winners, and losers. The market insights lead to further policy recommendations and open questions. Overall, this dissertation takes initial steps towards demonstrating how mathematical decomposition and agent-based simulations can be used as part of a larger market design toolbox to gain insights into different market designs and rules for the future electricity grid. In addition, this dissertation identifies market design ideas for further studies, particularly in the design of forward markets and investment cost recovery mechanisms.

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20

Zhou, Huafeng. "Design of grid service-based power system control centers for future electricity systems." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2008. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B40687429.

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21

Horta, José Luis. "Innovative paradigms and architecture for future distribution electricity networks supporting the energy transition." Thesis, Paris, ENST, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018ENST0022/document.

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Les futurs réseaux de distribution d’électricité devront héberger une part importante et croissante de sources d’énergies renouvelables intermittentes. De plus, ils devront faire face à une part croissante de véhicules électriques. Ces tendances induisent le besoin de nouveaux paradigmes et architectures d’exploitation du réseau de distribution, afin de fiabiliser les réseaux et d'assurer la qualité de fourniture d’électricité. Dans cette thèse nous proposons une nouvelle architecture capable de favoriser la collaboration entre les acteurs du marché de gros, les gestionnaires de réseau de distribution et les clients finaux, afin de tirer parti des ressources énergétiques distribuées tout en prenant en compte les contraintes des réseaux de distribution. L’architecture est conçue pour fournir des services innovants de gestion de la demande résidentielle, dans le cadre de l'autoconsommation individuelle et collective (à l'échelle d'un quartier). La thèse apporte trois contributions principales. D'abord, sur la base de l'internet des objets et de la technologie blockchain, la thèse fournit les éléments de base pour les futures architectures de gestion de l'énergie au niveau du réseau de distribution. Ensuite, en focalisant sur les services rendus par de telles architectures, nous proposons un marché intra-journalier au pas horaire pour l'échange local de l'énergie renouvelable entre maisons, associé à un mécanisme d'allocation dynamique des phases afin d'améliorer la qualité de fourniture. Finalement, nous proposons un mécanisme de contrôle en temps réel pour l'ajustement des transactions du marché vers des échanges finaux d'électricité qui respectent les restrictions posées par le gestionnaire du réseau électrique
Future electricity distribution grids will host an important and growing share of variable renewable energy sources and local storage resources. Moreover, they will face new load structures due for example to the growth of the electric vehicle market. These trends raise the need for new distribution grid architecture and operation paradigms to keep the grid stable and to ensure quality of supply. In addition, these new paradigms will enable the provision of advanced new services. In this thesis we propose a novel architecture capable of fostering collaboration among wholesale market actors, distribution system operators and end customers, to leverage flexible distributed energy resources while respecting distribution system constrains. The architecture is designed for providing innovative residential demand side management services, with a special focus on services enabled by self-consumption at the household and neighborhood level. Following these general objectives, the thesis provides three main contributions. First, based on internet of things and blockchain technology, we propose the building blocks for future distribution grid energy management architectures. Then, focusing on the services enabled by such architectures, we propose hour-ahead markets for the local exchange of renewable energy among households together with dynamic phase allocation mechanism to improve the quality of electricity supply. Finally, we propose a real time control mechanism for the adjustment of market decisions to satisfy distribution system operator constraints

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22

Riaz, Shariq. "Generic Market Modelling for Future Grid Scenario Analysis." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/18121.

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Power systems worldwide are moving away from being dominated by large-scale synchronous generation and passive consumers. Instead, in the future, new actors on both the generation and the load side will play an increasingly significant role. On the generation side, there are renewable energy resources (RES) such as wind generation (WG), photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar thermal (CST). On the load side, there are demand response (DR), energy storage and price responsive users equipped with a small-scale PV-battery system (called prosumers). The two sides will together shape future grids. However, if connected at a large scale without proper consideration of their effect, they can also jeopardise the reliability and security of electricity supply. For example, the addition of non-synchronous RES will jeopardise the frequency response of the future grids, while the intermittency and variability of RES threats the existing model of electricity supply (supply following demand), complicating balancing and stressing future grids’ ramping capabilities. On the other hand, the inclusion of DR, prosumers and storage without proper consideration of the implications can cause significant changes to the demand profiles and may result in new stresses such as secondary peaks or excessive ramps. In summary, balancing, stability (frequency, voltage, transient) and ultimately reliability are affected by the changes introduced to the future grids’ technology mix. Given that the lifespan of power system assets is well over fifty years, laying out a roadmap to future grid development in an economical fashion without risking its security is a challenging task. The uncertainty of cost, availability and quality of new technologies requires power system planners and policy-makers to evaluate the feasibility and viability of future grids for a diverse range of technology options. To this end, a rigorous and systematic approach is developed in this dissertation to analyse the implications of prosumers, storage and CST on the balancing and stability of future grids. The best features of all these approaches are combined and presented in a single coherent framework. Computation time improvement techniques are then deployed to improve the computational efficiency and solution accuracy. Taken as a whole, the tool will fill the gap to explore the validity of emerging technologies to tackle balancing, stability, security and reliability issues, over a diverse scope of uncertain premises. The tool is developed for an approach to future grids studies called scenario analysis. Traditionally, power systems are planned based on a handful of the most critical scenarios with an aim to find an optimal generation and/or transmission plan. In contradistinction, scenario analysis involves analysing possible evolutionary pathways to facilitate informed decision making by policy-makers and system planners. Specifically, the primary aim of future grids studies is to deal with the uncertainty of long-term decision making and providing outcomes that are technically possible, although explicit costing might be considered. To this end, for any future grids stability framework, the market model is a critical bottleneck. Existing future grids studies mostly look at simple balancing, ignore network constraints and include most of the emerging technologies in an ad hoc fashion. These simplifications are made to combat the high computation time requirement of accurate approaches. Against this backdrop, this dissertation presents: i) a novel optimisation-based models to capture the effects of prosumers (Chapter 2, 3); ii) co-optimise dispatch of PV and CST aggregation to reduce ramping stress on the conventional generators (Chapter 4); iii) efficiently implemented market-based dispatch (Chapter 5); iv) framework for frequency performance assessment of future grids (Chapter 6). In more detail, first, Chapter 2 and 3 develop a novel approach to explicitly model prosumers’ demand in market dispatch (production cost) models. The key novelty of the method is its ability to capture the impact of prosumers without going into specific market structure or control mechanisms, which are computationally expensive. The model is formulated as a bi-level program in which the upper-level unit commitment (UC) problem minimises the total generation cost and the lower-level problem maximises prosumers’ aggregate self-consumption. Unlike the existing bi-level optimisation frameworks that focus on the interaction between the wholesale market and an aggregator, the coupling is through the prosumers’ demand, not through the electricity price. That renders the proposed model market structure agnostic, making it suitable for future grids studies where the market structure is potentially unknown. This model addresses some critical questions such as, How much flexibility can prosumer provide to help with large-scale RES integration? Flexibility is the key to achieve a high RES penetration. One of the major problem in the integration of RES is their intermittent and variable nature. Concentrated solar thermal (CST) presents an excellent resource with inherent flexibility. In contrast to Chapter 2 and 3 (exploring flexibility through DSM), Chapter 4 examines flexibility options from a generation end. In particular, it proposes an RES aggregation (REA) scheme aiming to co-optimise the dispatch of intermittent and dispatchable RES. The principal aim is to keep in check the ramping stress imposed on the conventional generators due to the RES integration. A Stackelberg game is used to capture the interaction between an independent system operator (ISO) and the REA when the ISO tries to minimise the generation cost, while REA seeks to maximise its revenue. This approach also highlights the potential of a ramping market, as proposed by some US studies. In Chapter 5, the utility storage proposed in Chapter 2, prosumers model proposed in Chapter 3, the dispatch model of CST developed in Chapter 4 and inertia constraint detailed in Chapter 6 are combined into a single coherent framework. The addition of these emerging technologies in the energy market model significantly increases the computation burden. Also, to allow for a subsequent stability assessment, an accurate representation of the number of online generation units is required, which affects the power system inertia and the reactive power support capability. This renders a fully-fledged market model computationally intractable, so in Chapter 5 we deploy unit clustering, a rolling-horizon optimisation approach and constraint clipping to improve the computational efficiency. Together, these comprise a computationally efficient market simulation tool (MST) suitable for future grid stability analysis. Finally, developed MST is used in Chapter 6 for a comprehensive frequency performance assessment of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). First, an assessment of minimum inertia requirements is presented, followed by a framework for frequency performance assessment of future grids. The maximum non-synchronous instantaneous range from a frequency performance point of view is established for the NEM. Also, to alleviate the deteriorating effects of the high RES penetration on frequency performance, different technical solutions are proposed and discussed. These efforts will empower policy-makers and system planners with the information on safe penetration levels of different technologies while ensuring reliability and security of future grids.

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23

Nurmos, Ville, and Mattias Andersson. "Nordic electricity hedging : A comparison with other commodity market structures." Thesis, KTH, Tillämpad termodynamik och kylteknik, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-129188.

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This master thesis investigates and answers three fundamental questions regarding structural changes of a future market. This has been done by analysing and comparing three commodity markets with the Nordic electricity market. Examined commodity markets are LME steel billet, CME lean hogs and WTI & Brent crude oil. The report consists of a literature review with a theoretical background, CATWOE and a case analysis of each commodity market. The markets are thereafter analysed, compared and discussed regarding the research questions. It is concluded that the Nordic electricity market is in many ways comparable to other commodities, although it has some special characteristics. Key factors determining market success have been identified as (1) correlation between perceived risk and derivative risk, (2) trust for and experience of trading institutions and trading environment and (3) expectations. Based on the findings a new conceptual measure for market liquidity, Relative Market Liquidity, is introduced and discussed. The comparison in this thesis is based on the Nordic electricity market, but much of the results are applicable to other commodity markets. The thesis has been written during spring 2013 at the Royal Institute of Technology Department of Energy Technology in co-operation with Vattenfall AB.

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24

Bahilo, Rodríguez Edgar. "Swedish and Spanish electricity market : Comparison, improvements, price forecasting and a global future perspective." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Energisystem, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-24512.

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This report aims to make a comparison between the Swedish and Spanish electricity market, the design of new improvements that could achieve a better operation for both markets as well as the price forecasting for both spot markets. These enhancements are oriented to decrease electricity prices, energy use and the system CO2 emissions. Also, the main organizations of the market and their roles has been characterized, clarifying the functions of the Market Operator and the System Operator. In addition, the different markets, the trading products and the price formation have been explained and the picture of the market structure has been achieved with enough depth. Moreover, some of the most used methods in Time Series Analysis has been enumerated to understand which techniques are needed for forecast the electricity prices and the methodology used (Box-Jenkins Method) has been explained in detail. Later, all these methods have been implemented in an own code developed in Python 3.6 (TSAFTools .py) with the help of different statistics libraries mentioned during the method chapter. On the other hand, the description of the market situation has been carried out for both countries. Power installed capacity, electricity generation, average prices, main renewable technologies and policies to increase the renewable energy share has been analysed and corresponding described. Then, to estimate the market’s future spot electricity prices, ARIMA models have been selected to analyse the evolution of the day-ahead price using the TSAFTools.py. The final models show a proper performance in the two markets, especially in the Nordpool, achieving an RMSE: 37.68 and MAPE: 7.75 for the year in 2017 in Nordpool and a RMSE: 270.08 and MAPE: 20.24 in OMIE for 2017. Nordpool spot prices from 2015 to 2016 has been analysed too but obtaining a result not as good as the year 2017 with an RMSE: 49.01 and MAPE: 21.42. After this analysis, the strengths and weaknesses of both markets are presented and the main problems of the Spanish electricity system (power overcapacity, fuel dependency, non-cost-efficient renewable energies policies, lack of interconnexion capacity etc.) and the Swedish electricity system (dependency for nuclear power, uncertainty for solar electricity Generation) are presented. Finally, due to the quick development of the energy sector in the last years and the concern of the European Committee to reach a new design for the electricity market, different kinds of recommendations for the future have been considered.

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25

Anantapatnaikuni, Srikant. "Enhancing Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy in the future electricity system of Odisha, India." Thesis, KTH, Energiteknik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-252340.

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India ratified the Paris Agreement in 2015. The country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions includes reduction of emissions intensity by 33-35% in 2030 from the 2005 level and 40% of renewable energy share in the electricity mix by 2030. This study evaluated the future electricity system of Odisha, one of the states in India that is rich in mineral resources. It holds 26% of India’s coal reserves. While the current electricity system of Odisha comprises 95% of coal power generation, the state’s commitments in terms of climate goals and increasing the deployment of renewable energy sources (RES) (i.e., 3 GW by 2022) are aligned with the national goals. To encourage investment in RES and to reduce investment risks, Odisha has also set targets for renewable purchase obligations for utilities and captive consumers. They have to procure 15% of their total electricity consumption from RES (8% solar and 7% non-solar sources) by 2022. The electricity demand in the state is expected to increase due to increased economic growth and the goal to reach 100% energy access (24x7) to households. Besides, there is huge potential for energy savings in the current electricity system through improvement in energy efficiency in the end-use. The increase in electricity demand, high share of fossil in current electricity system, renewable energy target, climate goals and lack of study at the state level are the reasons to assess the future electricity system of Odisha. The study investigated the electricity system in Odisha to meet the increased electricity demand from 2018 until 2050. It estimates the technical, economic and environmental impacts of enhancing energy efficiency and renewable energy on future electricity system of Odisha by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System. Odisha’s future electricity system is assessed in four scenarios i.e. no new policies introduced in the future (BAU), high renewable energy share (HRE), improvement in energy efficiency (IEE) and a combination of renewable energy and energy efficiency (CER). The result shows that the energy requirements in the IEE scenario are 26% lower than in the BAU scenario, and the total costs are lower than HRE scenario by 34% and CER scenario by 10%. The CO2 emissions of the IEE scenario are higher than HRE scenario by 10% and CER by 23%. In the HRE scenario, the total costs are higher than BAU scenario by 8% and CER scenario by 26%. The CO2 emissions are lower than BAU by 45% and IEE by 25%. In the CER scenario, the costs are lower than BAU by 20% and HRE by 26%. The CO2 emissions are lower than BAU by 60%, IEE by 44% and HRE by 26%. The energy savings can be achieved by continuing the existing scheme Ujala for subsidised LEDs, extension of Perform Achieve Trade (reduction of specific energy consumption) scheme to medium and small industries. The renewable targets can be achieved through continuation of RPO which reduces the risk of new investors. Capacity auctions could bring down the solar and wind tariffs. The study demonstrate that the RPO for 2022 cannot be achieved with the target RE capacity. The gap must be fulfilled by either procuring renewable electricity from the regional grid or buy renewable energy certificates from the market.
Indien ratificerade Parisavtalet 2015. Landets avsedda nationellt fastställda bidrag inkluderar minskning av utsläppsintensiteten med 33-35% år 2030 från 2005 års nivå och 40% av förnybar energiandel i elmixen före 2030. Denna studie utvärderade framtida el system av odisha, en av de stater i india som är rik på mineralresurser. Den rymmer 26% av Indiens kolreservat. Medan Odishas nuvarande elsystem omfattar 95% av koldkraftproduktionen, är statens åtaganden när det gäller klimatmål och ökad utplacering av förnybara energikällor (RES) (dvs 3 GW år 2022) i linje med de nationella målen. För att uppmuntra investeringar i RES och minska investeringsrisker har Odisha också fastställt mål för förnybara köpskyldigheter för verktyg och konsumenter. De måste skaffa 15% av sin totala elförbrukning från RES (8% sol och 7% icke-solkällor). Efterfrågan på el i staten förväntas öka på grund av ökad ekonomisk tillväxt och målet att nå 100% energitillgång (24x7) till hushållen. Dessutom finns det stor potential för energibesparingar i det nuvarande elsystemet genom förbättring av energieffektiviteten. Ökningen av elbehov, hög andel fossil i nuvarande elsystem, mål för förnybar energi, klimatmål och brist på studier på statsnivå är anledningarna till att bedöma Odishas framtida elsystem. Studien undersökte elsystemet i Odisha för att möta den ökade efterfrågan från 2018 fram till 2050. Den uppskattar de tekniska, ekonomiska och miljömässiga konsekvenserna av att öka energieffektiviteten och förnybar energi på Odishas framtida elsystem genom att använda Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning Systemet. Odishas framtida elsystem bedöms i fyra scenarier, dvs ingen ny politik införd i framtiden (BAU), hög förnybar energi andel (HRE), förbättring av energieffektivitet (IEE) och en kombination av förnybar energi och energieffektivitet (CER). Resultatet visar att energikraven i IEE-scenariot är 26% lägre än i BAU-scenariot, medan de totala kostnaderna är lägre än HRE-scenariot med 34% och CER-scenariot med 10%. Koldioxidutsläppen från IEE-scenariot är högre än HRE-scenariot med 10% och CER med 23%. I HRE-scenariot är de totala kostnaderna högre än BAU-scenariot med 8% och CER-scenariot med 26%. Koldioxidutsläppen är lägre än BAU med 45% och IEE med 25%. I CER-scenariot är kostnaderna lägre än BAU med 20% och HRE med 26%. Koldioxidutsläppen är lägre än BAU med 60%, IEE med 44% och HRE med 26%. Energibesparingarna kan uppnås genom att fortsätta det befintliga systemet Ujala för subventionerade lysdioder, förlängning av Perform Achieve Trade (minskning av specifikt energiförbrukning) till medelstora och små industrier. De förnybara målen kan uppnås genom fortsatt RPO, vilket minskar risken för nya investerare. Kapacitetsauktioner kan sänka sol- och vindpriserna. Studien visar att RPO för 2022 inte kan uppnås med mål-RE-kapaciteten. Klyftan måste uppfyllas genom att antingen anskaffa förnybar el från det regionala nätverket eller köpa förnybara energikertifikat från marknaden.

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26

Kosiorek, Sebastian. "Measuring the elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: implications for future demand and supply." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62472.

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A key economic issue for government is the ability to effectively match electricity supply to electricity demand, because of the substantial economic losses in the case of where there is too little supply, or the waste of scarce resources where there is too much supply. In the case of South Africa, this issue, the importance of which was highlighted by the power shortages and associated “rolling blackouts” experience in 2008, has led to the creation of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as a means to decide how energy policy will be developed. Recently, however, the IRP 2010 and its subsequent 2013 and 2016 (draft) updates have been criticised as being too optimistic in regards to their projections of economic growth and electricity demand, making the recommendations in these documents to be flawed. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2017, together with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing for cointegration, this paper measures changes in the elasticity of electricity demand as a result of the massive price hikes over the past decade. Thereafter, the implications of changed electricity as well as possibly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the future for forecasts of possible future demand for electricity are examined. From these revised forecasts, it is possible to make appropriate recommendations in regards to electricity supply policy for South Africa including what possible energy mix is needed as well as the requirements for creating new supply to meet possible future demand. It is concluded that future electricity demand is likely to be much lower than forecast in the IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 documents. The degree of uncertainty in electricity demand growth suggests that large-scale increases in supply capacity taking years to construct, such as coal or nuclear, should be avoided. Small, incremental increases in supply that are able to come on stream swiftly, such as gas, solar and wind power, are likely to be more appropriate for meeting South Africa’s future needs.

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27

Hubert, Tanguy F. "Decision-making in the future electricity grid: home energy management, pricing design, and architecture development." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/54902.

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As the number of autonomous decision-making entities in the electricity grid increases, it is necessary to develop (1) new decision-making capabilities embedded within the grid's control and management, and (2) new grid architecture models ensuring that both individual and system objectives are met. This work develops (1) new decision-making mechanisms enabling residential energy users and electricity providers to interact through the use of dynamic price signals, and (2) policy recommendations to facilitate the emergence of shared architecture models describing the future state of the electricity grid. In the first part, two optimization models that capture the emerging flexible consumption, storage, and generation capabilities of residential end-users are formulated. An economic dispatch model that explicitly accounts for end-users' internal dynamics is proposed. A non-iterative pricing algorithm using convex and inverse linear programming is developed to induce autonomous residential end-users to behave cooperatively and minimize the provider's generation costs. In the second part, several factors that make the development of grid architecture models necessary from a public policy standpoint are identified and discussed. The grid architecture problem is rigorously framed as both a market failure legitimizing government intervention, and a meta-problem requiring the development of non-conventional methods of solution. A policy approach drawing on the theoretical concepts of broker, boundary object and boundary organization is proposed.

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28

Moisanen, S. (Saara). "Information flows in the future finnish electricity market, the changing role of households in energy transition." Master's thesis, University of Oulu, 2019. http://jultika.oulu.fi/Record/nbnfioulu-201903011264.

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Abstract. Global energy transition will have many effects on Finnish electricity grid and electricity market. One of the main changes will be transformation towards more decentralized power production and the increase in the amount of small-scale on-grid solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Other new energy solutions, like Home Energy Management Systems (HEMS), also become more common among electricity consumers. At the same time digitalization of electricity system will change the amount, content and utilization of household data and information in electricity market. Utilization of new energy solution and digitalization of the electricity system changes information flows between future households and other electricity market parties in the future. This thesis visualizes information flows between households and other electricity market parties in the future Finnish electricity market. Illustration is made based on literature review and interviews made with case company. Thesis first provides a research about energy transition, Smart Grids and the role of households in the future Finnish electricity market in general. The effects of these changes to information flows among market parties is evaluated based on the literature review and four case studies from experimental part. Thesis provides four case studies, in which information flows related to households who utilize new energy solutions are illustrated. Based on these illustrations, thesis analyzes the changes in information flows due to the utilization of new energy solution in households in the future. The result of this thesis is that households with new energy solutions will produce more data than currently, and the content of this data is more diverse than before. These changes cause increase in the number of information flows among market parties in the future Finnish electricity market. The content of information flows also becomes more diverse. The broadening of utilization purposes of household data will happen due to these changes. The results of this thesis can be applied for evaluating the possible consequences of energy transition to cooperation between future households and other electricity market parties. Result of this thesis can also be utilized in creating responsible and transparent business in the future Finnish electricity market.Tietovirrat Suomen tulevaisuuden sähkömarkkinoilla, kotitalouksien muuttuva rooli energiamurroksessa. Tiivistelmä. Globaali energiamurros vaikuttaa monin tavoin Suomen sähköverkkoon ja sähkömarkkinoihin. Yhtenä oleellisena muutoksena on hajautettuun energiantuotantoon siirtyminen ja sähköverkkoon liitetyn sähkön pientuotannon yleistyminen. Myös muut uudet energiaratkaisut, kuten kodin energianhallintajärjestelmät, yleistyvät sähkön kuluttaja-asiakkaiden keskuudessa. Samanaikaisesti sähköjärjestelmän digitalisointi muuttaa sähkömarkkinoilla hyödynnettävän kuluttajatiedon määrää, sisältöä ja hyödyntämismahdollisuuksia. Uusien energiaratkaisujen hyödyntämisen ja sähköjärjestelmän digitalisoinnin myötä tulevaisuuden kotitalouksien ja muiden sähkömarkkinaosapuolten väliset tietovirrat tulevat muuttumaan. Tämä diplomityö visualisoi kotitalouksien ja muiden sähkömarkkinaosapuolien välisiä tietovirtoja tulevaisuuden sähkömarkkinoilla Suomessa. Visualisointi tehdään kirjallisuuskatsauksen ja energiayhtiölle toteutettavien haastattelujen perusteella. Työssä perehdytään ensin kirjallisuuskatsauksen kautta energiamurroksen tuomiin muutoksiin Suomen sähköverkkoon ja -markkinoille, sekä kotitalouksien rooliin tulevaisuudessa. Näiden muutosten tuomia mahdollisia vaikutuksia kotitalouksien tuottaman datan määrään, sisältöön ja hyödyntämiskohteisiin arvioidaan työssä kirjallisuuskatsauksen ja kokeellisen osuuden esimerkkitapausten kautta. Työn kokeellisessa osassa esitetään neljä eri esimerkkitapausta, joissa muodostettaan tietovirtakuvia kotitalouksille, jotka hyödyntävät uusia energiaratkaisuja. Havainnollistettujen tietovirtakuvien pohjalta työssä analysoidaan uusien energiaratkaisujen hyödyntämisestä aiheutuvia muutoksia markkinaosapuolten välisiin tietovirtoihin tulevaisuudessa. Tulevaisuuden kotitaloudet Suomessa tulevat tuottamaan enemmän tietoa kuin nykypäivänä, ja tuotetun tiedon sisältö tulee olemaan laajempi kuin nykyään. Tuotetun tiedon määrän lisääntyminen ja sisällön muutos aiheuttavat tietovirtojen määrän kasvamiseen eri sähkömarkkinaosapuolien välillä. Lisäksi kotitalouksien tuottaman tiedon hyödyntämismahdollisuudet tulevat laajenemaan tulevaisuudessa. Tämän diplomityön tuloksia voidaan soveltaa arvioitaessa energiamurroksen mahdollisia seurauksia tulevaisuuden kotitalouksien ja muiden markkinaosapuolten väliseen yhteistyöhön. Työn tuloksia voidaan myös hyödyntää vastuullisen ja läpinäkyvän liiketoiminnan luomisessa Suomen tulevaisuuden energiamarkkinoilla.

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Cheng, Chia-Chin. "Electricity demand-side management for an energy efficient future in China : technology options and policy priorities." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/33679.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2005.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 278-289).
The main objective of this research is to identify robust technology and policy options which achieve substantial reductions in electricity demand in China's Shandong Province. This research utilizes a scenario-based approach to identify sensible and feasible energy efficiency and load reduction strategies. The research consists of technical analyses through the development of an hourly load simulation model to study the time and temperature sensitive impacts on electricity demand growth by different demand-side management (DSM) scenarios and a policy analysis to formulate policy priorities based on the socio-economic and environmental realities in China. This bottom-up comprehensive study helps inform decision-making given the technological, consumption and socio-economic conditions in large-scale electricity grid systems of Shandong and China, thus preferred DSM strategies are identified, and sensible policy recommendations are made with respect to Shandong province and China as a whole. This study developed a computer-based modeling tool for peak-load based electric demand analysis and long-term projections.
(cont.) The model simulates disaggregated hourly electric loads by end-user types with temperature-sensitive load simulation capability, which takes into account time use patterns, life-style and behavioral factors, distributed consumption behaviors of electricity users, appliances and equipment utilization patterns, environmental factors, and industrial structural and operational parameters. The simulation and scenario based research methodology provides a comparative basis, and dynamic insights to electricity demand in areas when limited generation and consumption information is available, which is especially appropriate for electricity sector studies in developing countries. The research showed that demand side management strategies could result in significant reduction in the peak loads as well as the total electricity consumption in Shandong.
(cont.) The results of the technical analysis concluded that (1) temperature sensitive load makes up the fastest growing demand within the entire consumption profile; (2) implementation of building energy efficiency strategies demonstrates the largest energy saving potential; (3) implementation of appliances standards, has limited effects on energy saving; (4) load management strategies to induce changes in consumption behaviors also shows great potential, however, they are difficult to estimate; and (5) urbanization policies also have a strong impact on electricity consumption. The recommended DSM policy priorities are based on the energy-saving potentials of the DSM strategies, which are listed in priority order: (1) improvement of building technology, (2) management of new installation first (3) management of temperature sensitive loads, (4) implementation of behavioral and load management strategies, (5) better management of urbanization policies (6) promotion of aggressive industrial motor substitution measures & industrial structural changes, and (6) improvement of appliance efficiency.
(cont.) This research also formulated integrated DSM policy recommendations to the Chinese government that are centered by the development of coordinated DSM policy framework, and that are based upon the current technological, managerial and institutional capacities of Chinese industry and governmental agencies. The details include moving away from the traditional utility centered IRP/DSM framework, developing a robust energy efficiency services industry, setting correct DSM priorities and implementing them, developing and upgrading the domestic energy efficiency product industry, and engaging end-user participation. The thesis recognized the barriers and difficulties in the policy implementation and stressed the importance of continuous adaptation and institutional learning in the implementation process.
by Chia-Chin Cheng.
Ph.D.

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Mökander, Jakob. "Demand Response in the Future Swedish Electricity Market : A typology based on cost, volume and feasibility." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Industriell ekonomi, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-112941.

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The power balance of an electrical power system is crucial to the quality of the delivered electricity as well as the security of supply. In a scenario where Swedish nuclear power plants are being phased out and replaced by renewable energy sources new constraints are added to the power balance equation since the production of many renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, are intermittent by nature. This leads to a situation where the currently available regulating power might have difficulties to manage the increasing frequency fluctuations in the power grid. One possible solution to the problem is to build gas turbines for the purpose of peak power generation capacity. An alternative option would be to increase customer flexibility; that is Demand Response. This master thesis investigates how the market for Demand Respond can be designed and which potential Demand Response volumes different policy programs might release. This is done through a mixed approach. Firstly, a scientific review of previously documented Demand Response experiences compares and categorizes different Demand Response programs in a typology based on the parameters cost, volume and feasibility. Subsequently an interview series with different market agents, predominantly through interviews with the Swedish energy intensive industry, identifies the existing Demand Response potential in Sweden and offers the paradigm needed to transfer the results to a future hypothetical situation. The typology of Demand Response programs and estimation of the future industrial Demand Response potential in Sweden are the main new knowledge contributions of this master thesis. The scope however is limited to the Swedish market geographically and focuses on the time horizon 2020-2050. It is also assumed that only existing technologies are likely to be implemented on a large scale over the given time horizon. The results of this master thesis suggest that a Real Time Pricing model would realize the largest potential of Demand Response and to a relatively low cost. This solution however requires actions and further development of both the pricing model and in technology. Firstly, all market agents must have free access to real time price information, something that is lacking today. Secondly, a smart grid with hourly meters is required. If policymakers consider security of supply to be more important than a low system cost, Direct Control or a continuation of the Strategic Reserve is to be preferred according to the conclusions of this report. Previous studies have placed the existing potential for industrial Demand Response in Sweden between 600 and 900 MW. This report suggests that the available volume is in the upper region of the mentioned interval already today and has potential to rise significantly in the future as industries become more aware of the concept and the transmission grid is becoming more flexible. Another driving force for increased Demand Response volumes are the increased price fluctuations which are expected as a consequence of a greater share of renewable energy sources. For the future Demand Response potential, a cost perspective is introduced and a distinction between different response durations is made. More specifically the results indicate that the potential industrial Demand Response volume will be about 1,500 MW in 2030, given a response duration time of 4 h and a spot price on 2,000 SEK/MWh. If 1,500 MW of peak generation capacity could be avoided through active Demand Side Management, it would reduce the system cost with about 350 Million SEK annually. Consequently, there is a business case for Demand Response and the issue is likely to be subject to further investigation and discussion in the future. On the long term however industrial Demand Response must be compared with other flexibility options, e.g. as import/export or energy storages but also residential Demand Response, and is in such case likely to be outcompeted due to its relatively high variable cost of providing capacity.

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Tanaka, Karen Talita. "Indicator-Based Framework: A Proposition to Achieve a Sustainable Energy Future in the Brazilian Electricity Industry." Universidade de São Paulo, 2018. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/106/106131/tde-11052018-100745/.

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The dissertation was inspired by the need to develop a set of indicators that could serve as an instrument to foster a more sustainable path for the Brazilian electricity industry. As additional objectives, the research aimed to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the countries assessed, and to extract lessons and recommendations for Brazil to prepare and carry out strategies to foster a sustainable future. The main question posed by the doctoral dissertation was what are the main aspects of a framework that can work as a strategic tool to identify pathways for a sustainable electric future for Brazil? The final indicator-based framework was based on a set of indicators whose aim was to identify a suitable combination of factors for the Brazilian electricity industry to move towards a more balanced energy future. The indicators proposed, all of which were directly related to electricity, were selected based on previous academic work, and were meant to cover the three main domains of sustainability today, namely the economic, social, and environmental domains. The choice of indicators that compose the framework reflects political, academic and market-based concerns involved in the achievement of a sustainable future for electricity. Historical sets of data for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 were used to compile the results of the final five indicators: a) access to electricity (IND1), b) electric power transmission and distribution losses (IND2), c) carbon dioxide emissions from electricity and heat production (IND3), d) renewable electricity output (IND4), and e) renewable generation capacity share (IND5). The results show the 111 countries analyzed for each indicator and as a group for the framework. A series of cross-reference analyses were also shown, positioning Brazil among the best and worst scores, among the Latin American countries and among the BRICS. The conclusions discuss the importance of indicators and how their choice, weight and combination can affect the overall position in a ranking and serve as a powerful tool for better informed decision-making.
A tese foi inspirada pela necessidade de desenvolver um conjunto de indicadores que podem servir como um instrumento para promover um caminho mais sustentável para o setor elétrico brasileiro. Como objetivos adicionais, a pesquisa buscou analisar pontos fortes e fracos dos países e extrair lições e recomendações para que o Brasil prepare e alcance estratégias que fomentem um futuro sustentável. A questão proposta pela tese foi quais os principais aspectos de um índice que poderiam servir como uma ferramenta estratégica para identificar caminhos para um futuro elétrico sustentável para o Brasil? O índice final baseou-se em um conjunto de indicadores cujo objetivo foi identificar uma combinação adequada de fatores para o setor elétrico brasileiro avançar para um futuro de energia mais equilibrado. Os indicadores propostos, todos diretamente relacionados com eletricidade, foram selecionados com base em trabalhos acadêmicos anteriores e foram feitos para cobrir os três principais pilares de sustentabilidade hoje, ou seja, as dimensões econômica, social e ambiental. A escolha dos indicadores que compõem o índice final reflete preocupações políticas, acadêmicas e de mercado que são inerentes ao alcance de um futuro sustentável e elétrico. Conjuntos de dados históricos para os anos de 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 e 2010 foram usados para compilar os resultados dos cinco indicadores finais: 1) acesso à eletricidade (IND1), 2) perdas na transmissão e na distribuição de energia elétrica (IND2), 3) emissões de dióxido de carbono relativos à geração de energia elétrica (IND3), 4) produção de eletricidade renovável (IND4), e 5) capacidade de geração renovável (IND5). Os resultados mostram os 111 países analisados para cada indicador e em grupo para o quadro final. Análises de referência cruzada também foram realizadas, posicionando o Brasil entre as melhores e as piores pontuações, entre os países da América Latina e entre os BRICS. As conclusões discutiram a importância dos indicadores e como sua escolha, peso e combinação podem afetar a posição geral no ranking e servir como uma ferramenta poderosa para tomadas de decisão mais bem informadas.

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Jasiunas, Justinas. "Technological measures needed for 100% renewable electricity system in Lithuania and feasibility of their future competitiveness." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-240422.

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This study aims to improve understanding the role of energy storage and other technologies in enablingeconomically competitive variable renewable energy based power systems which hold promise to minimiseenvironmental, energy security and other externalities of existing systems. The study focuses on insulatedLithuanian power system, which does not rely on other non-renewable systems to operate, 100% suppliedby renewables with at least 80% of that from solar and wind. Hourly time resolution is used for duration ofone year.Simple analysis, which does not rely on optimisation model, was performed using only final consumption,wind and solar power production data. It indicated seasonal energy shortages significantly varying betweenthe years and accounting up to a quarter of cumulative hourly shortages or more than 8% of the annual finalconsumption.The model developed in this study optimises the annualised system costs, while balancing consumptionwith production at each hour of the year under various constraints. Both installed capacity and its dispatchare varied. The model is deterministic with linear formulation and is run using GAMS and MatLab software.Six technologies are included: onshore wind, solar, biomass, hydro, pumped hydro and power-to-powerstorage systems. Wind and solar installed capacities and hourly output are scaled proportionally fromreference year values. Curtailment is not restricted. Biomass annual electric output is limited by its amountin the reference year. Hydro and pumped hydro are modelled based on two large existing plants in thecountry. They are the only technologies which capacity cannot be increased. Power-to-power storage systemis further divided into three systems (power to hydrogen, hydrogen storage, hydrogen to power) and aresized independently. Different technologies used for these systems depending on scenario. Four scenariosanalysed address possible differences in technology availability as well as economic environment. Majorsimplifications used in the model and their expected impact on overall system costs are listed and brieflydiscussed.Model runs result in system costs being 2.9 to 5.3 times larger than electricity purchase costs of the countryin a reference year from existing wholesale market. Majority of these costs are for wind and solar capacitywhich covers not only final demand, large losses in storage systems, but is also oversized resulting incurtailed surplus levels of 11% to 46% depending on scenario. Sensitivity analysis was performed runningmodel for different wind and solar costs up to 5 time lower than their current values. Extrapolated trendsshow wind cost reductions having larger impact and that 6.2 to 8.3 times lower wind costs would be neededto get system costs lower than what was paid for electricity in the wholesale market during the referenceyear.Given limited number of technologies considered and isolation of the system large cost reduction potentialwith existing technologies is expected. Four most promising model expansion areas are analysed, which add:more storage technologies, neighbouring Latvian power sector, heating sector, more detailed biomasspotential representation. Work validity, applicability in other county cases and even further directions forfuture work directions are discussed.A paper summarising this work is submitted and accepted for presentation in 17th Wind IntegrationWorkshop in Stockholm. It can be found as an appendix at the end of this report.
Denna studie syftar till att förbättra rollen och kunskapen för energilagring och andra tekniker som möjliggör ett variabelt, ekonomiskt och förnybart energisystem som förväntas minska de negativa externaliterna hos det existerande systemet, såsom, miljömässiga, ekonomiska och omvärldsberoende. Studien fokuserar på det isolerade litauiska kraftsystemet, som för närvarande förlitar sig på andra icke- förnybara kraftkällor. Analysen i studien jämför ett existerande referensår och antar ett scenario med 100% förnybart med åtminstone 80% av detta från sol och vind. En timuppdelning har använts för att återspegla en simuleringstid på ett år. Initialt så utformades en enkel analys som inte förlitar sig på en optimeringsmodell utan endast använde data från sol- och vindproduktions. Analysen indikerade att en energibrist kommer att existera under vissa säsonger under året. Energibristen förväntas bestå av en fjärdedel av den sammanlagda bristen under ett antal timmar och mer än 8% av den årliga slutkonsumtionen. Vidare så konstruerades en modell för att optimera den årliga systemkostnaden med beaktande av en kontinuerlig balansering av produktion och konsumtion över året. Både den installerade effekten för sol och vind varierades. Analysen är gjord i programvarorna GAMS och MatLab, där en linjär modell formulerades. I denna analys är dessa tekniker inkluderade: vind, sol, biomassa, vattenkraft, pumpkraft och kraftverk baserade på vätgaslagring. De installerade effekterna på sol och vind med deras timvisa produktion är skalade från värden för ett referensår. Ingen hänsyn är tagen till eventuella reduceringar och den årliga produktionen från biomassa begränsas utifrån referensåret. Vattenkraftens förmåga är baserat på de två existerande vattenkraftverken i landet, och är de enda två teknikerna där kapaciteten inte kan expandera. Vidare så är kraftverk baserad på vätgaslagring uppdelat i tre olika system (från elkraft till vätgas, vätgaslagring och vätgas till elkraft) och är skalade individuellt. Beroende på scenario så har olika tekniker använts för dessa system. Fyra scenarier har analyserats och beaktar olika tekniska utvecklings-, miljö- och ekonomiska möjligheter. De främsta förenklingar som gjorts i modellen och deras fulla effekt på systemets kostnader är listade och diskuterats översiktligt. Resultaten från modellen visar att systemkostnaderna blir 2.9 till 5.3 gånger högre än om elektriciteten skulle varit köpt från den nationella marknaden under referensåret. Den installerade kapaciteten för sol och vind står för majoriteten av dessa kostnader. Trots att den täcker den slutgiltiga efterfrågan så finns det stora förluster i lagringssystem samt att de är överdimensionerade med 11-46% beroende på scenario. En känslighetsanalys gjordes genom att variera kostnaderna för dessa tekniker med upp till 5 gånger lägre än deras befintliga värde. Extrapolerade trender visar att kostnaderna för vindkraften har en större påverkan på den övergripande kostnaden för hela energisystemet. För att nå en lägre kostnad jämfört om man skulle köpa elektricitet från den nationella marknaden så skulle priset för vindkraft behöva sjunka 6.2 till 8.3 gånger. Resultaten visar att trots de begränsande teknikmöjligheterna och isolering av systemet som har tagits hänsyn till så finns det kostreduceringspotential. De fyra mest lovande att vidare analysera är: mer lagringstekniker, integrera med den lettiska energi- och värmesektorn samt en mer detaljerad undersökning av biomasspotentialen. En validering av studein, applicerbarhet i andra länder samt framtida studier diskuteras också. En artikel som summerar denna studie är insänd och godkänd för presentation den 17th Wind Integration Workshop i Stockholm. Den finn i ett appendix i slutet av denna rapport.

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Rossbach, Katharina. "Analysis of future scenarios for electric vehicle adoption in sweden : A case study." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för ekonomi, samhälle och teknik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-30956.

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Transportation is one of the areas where Sweden could not yet manage to reduce the CO2 emissions. One solution that has been suggested to reduce the CO2 emissions in this sector is through the mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). However, mass EV adoption brings complications with it. Drivers behavior is a critical aspect since people often charge their car at home after work. This could negatively affect the evening load peak and thus cause a high impact on the electricity system. A survey was sent out to current private EV owners in Sweden, to learn about their charging schedules, driving patterns and battery capacity. 226 of 403 replied to the survey which gave a survey reply rate of 56 %. The goal of this work was to estimate the future adoption of EVs, based on the current trends and national targets in order to develop different scenarios. With the scenarios in mind, the projected consumption of EVs for different periods of the day, the magnitude and time of the peak load as well as the overall consumption and CO2 reduction per year were calculated. Three scenarios were analyzed with 96 000, 650 000 and 1 000 000 electric vehicles where 25 % are defined to be running entirely on electricity in the middle and high penetration scenario since even plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV where included. The scenarios are estimated as the possible situation in 2030 and a simulation is done in MATLAB for summer and winter cases as well as weekdays and weekends. Results showed that the charging pattern of the EV drivers would cause a peak load at around 20.00 where the peak load from the overall household consumptions also takes place. The highest consumption takes place during the weekend cases but there were no significant difference between summer and winter. For example the peak consumption of the EVs was 150 MWh during winter and weekends at 20.00. The annual consumption of the EVs would be 238 GWh, 342 GWh and 616 GWh for the low, middle and high penetration scenario. By analyzing the current installed power of renewable energy sources in Sweden, it was found that the demand for EVs could be met by renewables entirely today. It was also found that using EVs instead of conventional fossil fueled cars can save up to 264 Mton CO2 for the low penetration scenario, 447 Mton for the middle penetration scenario and 688 Mton for the high penetration scenario. Different assumptions could have caused deviation from the actual result and it was found during the implementation of the simulation that the survey questions could be improved for future surveys. It was concluded that mass adoption of EVs is possible in terms of electricity production and installed power. However, increase in the evening peak led to the conclusion that balancing of the grid is necessary for example through Vehicle-to-grid (V2G), controlled charging or energy storage. Keywords: MATLAB, electricity consumption, EV, CO2 emissions, simulation, 2030, Scenario, penetration level

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Balussou, David [Verfasser], and W. [Akademischer Betreuer] Fichtner. "An analysis of current and future electricity production from biogas in Germany / David Balussou ; Betreuer: W. Fichtner." Karlsruhe : KIT-Bibliothek, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1164081039/34.

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Laphai, Zaw San, and Sedat Polat. "Framtidens elnät : Hur elbilar och solceller påverkar på det lokala elnätet." Thesis, Karlstads universitet, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-36676.

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The purpose of the project is to determine the impact of solar cells and electrical vehicles on the future electricity grid and distribution network. Future electricity grids will be affected differently than it does today. Therefore, it is important to determine the impacts so that the current electricity distribution system can be developed and redesign to achieve the future demand. In Sweden, government has changed rules and laws in order to make it easier for private sector to invest in renewable energy sources. Our project focused on the impact of the solar cells and electric vehicles on the low voltage electricity distribution. Solar cells have become more popular than ever and that leads to many countries in utilizing their energy needs from solar and the same is going to happen here in Sweden. It is needed to find out how the impacts on the low voltage grids will be if many private individual install solar panels in their own homes and what will happen when they start to supply electricity, which is excess from the production of their solar cells, back to the grid? What should be done in order to maintain the electricity’s quality in term of voltage? Meanwhile, electric vehicle popularity rises every year, which means that electricity demand will rise proportionally with the number of electric cars in the country. Should something be done with the power supply to meet the power needs of electric cars? Is it possible to use the electrical car battery as a backup power? How electric vehicle charging’s behavior will impact on the low voltage? In this project, data and pictures has taken from different sources and consolidated for analysis purpose. This thesis contained information about solar radiation, solar cells, electric vehicles, and batteries, rules for installation of solar cells regulations, electricity grids, and electrical power quality, results of researching and eventual solutions for expected problems.

Presentation har gjort med båda svenska och norska språket .

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Raasch, Jessica [Verfasser], and Christoph [Akademischer Betreuer] Weber. "Flexibility for Future Electricity Systems - Analyzing Challenges related to Coordination, Complementarity and Predictability / Jessica Raasch ; Betreuer: Christoph Weber." Duisburg, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1144856620/34.

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Lohmann, Per, and Zami Sarker. "New Business Model for District Heating Firms Stabilizing the National Energy System with a Future Variable Electricity Production." Thesis, KTH, Energiteknik, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-134869.

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The aim of this thesis is to develop a new business model for district heating and cooling firms which can contribute to a stabilization of the Swedish national energy system. The business model is developed for a district heating and cooling firm and is exemplified with Fortum Heat. The theoretical investigation around the topic creates a rigid base for following qualitative empirical studies. Osterwalder’s canvas for business model generation is used together with a Casual Loop Diagram to identify a number of business opportunities which stabilizes the national energy system. One of the business opportunities is developed into a business model. The study results in a business model which offers Svenska Kraftnät an increased volume of electricity production through free capacity in CHP plants. This stabilizes the national energy system when the electricity production from renewable energy sources is low. Free capacity occurs due to more and more energy efficient buildings and investments in new production capacity. Heat from the electricity production is loaded into thermal storages to cover a part of the future need for heat. Heat can also be rejected as surplus heat into water if the demand for electricity is high. Renewable biofuels turn CHP plants into bio-condensing electricity power plants. A general exemplification of this situation at Fortum Heat shows positive economical results. Producing electricity independently of the current demand of heat makes it possible for Fortum Heat to be a part of Svenska Kraftnät commercialization of the power reserve. A finalizing discussion highlights aspects needed to be considered when implementing the business model at Fortum Heat.

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Rosen, Johannes. "The future role of renewable energy sources in European electricity supply A model-based analysis for the EU-15 /." Karlsruhe Univ.-Verl. Karlsruhe, 2007. http://d-nb.info/98936058X/04.

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39

Rosen, Johannes. "The future role of renewable energy sources in European electricity supply : a model based analysis for the EU-15 /." Karlsruhe : Univ.-Verl. Karlsruhe, 2008. http://d-nb.info/989626571/34.

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40

Jakobsson, Thorman Carl-Wilhelm, and Tommy Kovala. "Smart Customer Relationship : Investigating how customer relationships influence the development of demand response for the future electricity retail market." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Industriell ekonomi och organisation, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-28356.

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The fact that household customers are central in the discussion of future sustainable energy systems compels the Swedish electricity retail companies to provide strategies in order to successfully follow the trends on the electricity market. The purpose of this thesis is to complement the electricity retail companies’ understanding of how they are able to enter a sustainable and close business relationship with these customers. The purpose is fulfilled by the analysis of how relationship concepts impact the development of demand response specifically. The information has been collected through a case study of Smart Customer Gotland, via interviews with people who have great experience from the field and via a survey directed towards the customers. The results indicate that there is a major difference in both of the actors’ visions regarding the relationship. The company desires to enter a position where less support and high customization is available. Customers instead want more personal support because of their lack of knowledge and uncertainty of new systems. To succeed, the companies have to consider the fundamental influencing incentives, economy and comfort, while also maintaining the customers’ trust. The most essential parts of the context specific relationship exchange are product exchange, information exchange, and social exchange. These should be directed towards maintaining and increasing the trust from customers. Focusing the resources earlier used for marketing, on these exchanges to make the current customers more satisfied will open up for using word-of mouth primarily from early adopters. Continued work with these early adopters will also increase companies’ knowledge, which is important for the companies to strategically develop its business towards the market of smart energy solutions.

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41

Therese, Fredheim, and Elin Svensson. "Evaluating information interfaces on the current and future electricity market from a DSO’s perspective – A case study on Vattenfall." Thesis, KTH, Energiteknik, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-148662.

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In the recent years, there has been an intense on going debate regarding a new market model that would significantly transform the information interfaces and the processes on the electricity market. The model in question is called a supplier centric model, which means that the supplier is the customer’s primary contact point. This report examines how a Distribution System Operator (DSO) would be affected by the implementation of the supplier centric model due to the restructuring of information interfaces. The research was conducted as a case study on Vattenfall, but interviews with external actors and a literature review were also conducted in order to get an unbiased view of the market changes. The findings of the research demonstrated that grid related processes and customers to the regional grid require superior technical expertise, which makes these processes disadvantageous to manage in a supplier centric manner. In addition, the report concluded that the implementation of a supplier centric model would increase the credit risk, but the overall economic impact will be neutral long term.

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42

Shepero, Mahmoud. "Modeling and forecasting the load in the future electricity grid : Spatial electric vehicle load modeling and residential load forecasting." Licentiate thesis, Uppsala universitet, Fasta tillståndets fysik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-359432.

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The energy system is being transitioned to increase sustainability. This transition has been accelerated by the increased awareness about the adverse effects of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere. The transition includes switching to electricity as the energy carrier in some sectors, e.g., transportation, increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources (RES) to the grid, and digitalizing the grid services. Electric vehicles (EVs) are promoted and subsidized in many countries among the sustainability initiatives. Consequently, the global sales of EVs rapidly increased in the recent years. Many EV owners might charge their EVs only at home, thereby increasing the residential load. The residential load might further increase due to the initiatives to electrify the heating/cooling sector. This thesis contributes to the knowledge about the operation of the future energy system by modeling the spatial charging load of private EVs in cities, and by proposing a forecasting model to predict the residential load. Both models can be used to evaluate the impacts of both technologies on the local electricity grid. In addition, demand response (DR) schemes can be proposed to reduce the adverse effects of both the charging load of EVs and the residential load. A case study of the EV model on the Herrljunga city grid showed that 100% EV penetration with 3.7 kW (charging rate of 14.8 km/h) chargers will not cause voltage violations in the grid. Winter load is responsible for 5% voltage drop at the weakest bus, and EVs add only 1% to this drop. In a Swedish city, charging EVs will require adding extra 1.43 kW/car to the grid capacity—assuming 22 kW (charging rate of 88 km/h) residential chargers. If the EV charging is not restricted to residential locations, an increase of 1.23 kW/car is expected. The proposed forecasting model is comparable in accuracy to previously developed models. As an advantage, the model produces a probability density function (PDF) describing the model’s certainty in the forecast. In contrast, many previous contributions provided only point forecasts.

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43

Autran, Ludovic. "Convergence of day-ahead and future prices in the context of European power market coupling: Historical analysis of spot and future electricity prices in Germany, France, Netherlands and Belgium." Thesis, KTH, Elektriska energisystem, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-98670.

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Since November 2010, the French, Belgian, German and Dutch electricity markets are sharing a common mechanism for Day Ahead price formation called “Market Coupling”. This implicit auctioning system for cross border flows management is part of a regional market integration policy which constitutes an intermediary step toward fully integrated European markets. Within a few years, power markets had evolved a lot, and faced many changes (completion of the deregulation process, renewable integration, …). They were also indirectly affected by the consequences of the Japanese nuclear catastrophe in 2011. In this context, it is interesting to take a stock on the convergence process between these four countries, less than a year after the coupling was launched. Studying the convergence and its evolution for both spot and futures prices can give precious information in order to implement hedging strategies. In this thesis, we explore the dynamics of the convergence process through two main analyses: a Kalman filter and a more original approach based on Mean Reversion Jump Diffusion parameters estimation. We also describe and explore the convergence process under the light of market organisation, production portfolios and consumption profiles to highlight similarities but also divergences. Despite a European framework suitable for convergence, we observe major differences in energy mixes, consumption profiles and renewable integration rates. However, prices are showing significant convergence patterns through the years. Indeed, we observed that the relation between prices was getting steadier and that the price spread was narrowing. Besides, we also noticed that such a convergence process was not constant but rather stepwise and could be affected by peculiar events. France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany’s electricity markets are already well integrated and seem to converge further but sudden changes can appear. This is why a hedging strategy between these countries is feasible but implies some risks.

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44

Llovera, Bonmatí Albert. "Market role, profitability and competitive features of thermal power plants in the Swedish future electricity market with high renewable integration." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Elektricitetslära, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-330392.

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The Swedish energy market is currently undergoing a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, including a potential phase-out of nuclear power. The combination of a phase-out with expansion of intermittent renewable energy leads to the issue of increased fluctuations in electricity production. Energy-related organizations and institutions are projecting future Swedish energy scenarios with different possible transition pathways. In this study the market role of thermal power plants is assessed in two future scenarios. The fast start-up time of gas turbines means that they can balance out fluctuations. Given that a large share of reports already studies costs of the system, this report instead investigates the profitability, potential market roles, and competitive features of these technologies in the future market.

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45

Schott, Paul [Verfasser], and Gilbert [Akademischer Betreuer] Fridgen. "Demand-Side Flexibility – Enabled and Enhanced by Information Technologies in Current and Future Electricity Systems / Paul Schott ; Betreuer: Gilbert Fridgen." Bayreuth : Universität Bayreuth, 2021. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:703-epub-5794-0.

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46

Farahmand, Ghaffarpour Mehdi, and Henrik Ros. "Integration of thermochemical heat storage with a municipal district heating system : In future scenario with large variations in electricity price." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Framtidens energi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-39775.

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This thesis investigates the feasibility and benefits of integrating Thermochemical heat Storage (THS) into a CHP (Combined Heat and Power) plant. A case study is done for the CHP-plant in Sala, Sweden, with a maximum heat output of 20.9 MW and maximum electricity output of 9.6 MW. The THS type considered is calcium oxide in a hydroxide system. The fluctuations in electricity price for years 2020, 2030 and 2040 are considered and low-price electricity is used as a charging source for THS. During charging the superheated steam (endothermic reaction) is used to cover some of the district heating demand. The high temperature discharge from the THS is used as reheat in the Rankine cycle. The operations are modeled in Ebsilon and optimization is done in MATLAB using genetic algorithm with the objective to achieve maximum annual revenue. The results suggest that it is not feasible to introduce THS with electricity as a charging source in year 2020, but in 2030 and 2040 THS shows promising potential. The biggest increase in revenue comes from reduced fuel consumption, and, to a lesser extent, increased income from electricity. It is concluded that Calcium hydroxide is a promising candidate for integration into CHP during large electricity price fluctuation. The main drivers for the feasibility of this combination are high fuel price and large fluctuations of electricity price.

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47

Karkulahti, Linnéa, and Monika Mizgalewicz. "Optimization of a Combined Heat and Power Plant for the Future Electricity Market : A case study conducted at Söderenergi AB." Thesis, KTH, Energiteknik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-271708.

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The Swedish energy system is changing and two major events that are taking place are the phase out of nuclear power and the increase of wind power. The associated changes affect the electricity market and the electricity producers, including combined heat and power plants. This thesis evaluates the Swedish energy system of 2025 with focus on electricity spot prices. It also investigates how a combined heat and power plant might perform in the future, given certain changes in the electricity price. Six different scenarios are developed where the electricity price is modified according to findings with regards to the influence of wind- and nuclear power. A model of a combined heat and power plant and a district heating network is created in BoFiT. The scenarios are applied to the model and results are analyzed in terms of heat production, choice of operational mode, merit order and economical performance. Major findings show a more volatile electricity price in 2025. Low price hours (<100SEK/MWh) occur throughout the year, while high price hours (>640SEK/MWh) take place mostly during winter - the season during which the heat demand is at its peak. Results show that the developed electricity prices require much more regulation from the modelled power plant and that the power plant is more adapted to handling high price hours than low price hours. The district heating network is also affected by the volatile electricity prices, and more frequent and greater variations are observed in the merit order. This suggests that in the future, the electricity prices will need to be followed more actively, and that a strategy will need to be developed, allowing for quick adaptation to the prices - communication and cooperation between the different actors in the network will be needed.
Sveriges energisystem är i förändring där avvecklingen av kärnkraft och ökad implementering av vindkraft är i fokus. Konsekvenserna av dessa förändringar kommer påverka elmarknaden och därmed elproducenterna, bland dem kraftvärmeverk. Detta examensarbete utvärderar energisystemet i Sverige 2025 med fokus på elmarknaden. Arbetet undersöker också hur ett kraftvärmeverk kan prestera i framtiden baserat på förändringar i elpriset. Sex olika scenarios har utvecklats där elpriset har modifierats baserat på analysen av vind- och kärnkraftsutvecklingen i Sverige och dess påverkan på elpriset. Ytterligare skapas en modell av ett kraftvärmeverk och ett fjärrvärmenät i BoFiT. Scenarierna implementeras i modellen och resultat extraheras och analyseras baserat på värmeproduktion, val av driftläge, körordning i systemet samt ekonomisk prestanda. Resultaten visar främst att volatiliteten i elpriset ökar till 2025. Låga elpristimmar (<100SEK/MWh) visar sig inträffa under hela året medan höga elpristimmar(>640 SEK/MWh) dominerar under vintern - säsongen där efterfrågan på värme är som högst. Resultaten visar att det förväntade elpriset kräver högre reglering av det modellerade kraftvärmeverket och att anläggningen idag är anpassad för att hantera framförallt höga elpriser men inte låga elpriser. Även fjärrvärmenätet i sig påverkas av volatilitet i elpriserna och mer frekventa och större variationer observeras i körordningen. Detta antyder att elpriserna i framtiden måste följas mer aktivt och att en strategi, som möjliggör snabb reglering för anpassning av elpriserna, måste utvecklas. Kommunikation och samarbete mellan parterna i fjärrvärmesystemet kommer därmed vara av hög betydelse.

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48

Lauer, Markus [Verfasser]. "DBFZ Report Nr. 37: Economic assessment of biogas plants as a fl exibility option in future electricity systems / Markus Lauer." Leipzig : Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum gemeinnützige GmbH, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1219519863/34.

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49

Bökenkamp, Gesine [Verfasser]. "The role of norwegian hydro storage in future renewable electricity supply systems in Germany : analysis with a simulation model / Gesine Bökenkamp." Flensburg : Zentrale Hochschulbibliothek Flensburg, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1126260185/34.

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50

Bogenrieder, Josef [Verfasser], Christoph J. [Akademischer Betreuer] Brabec, and Christoph J. [Gutachter] Brabec. "Adapting photovoltaic systems to requirements of a future electricity supply system / Josef Bogenrieder ; Gutachter: Christoph J. Brabec ; Betreuer: Christoph J. Brabec." Erlangen : Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), 2019. http://d-nb.info/1190359502/34.

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