Дисертації з теми "Économie réelle"
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Bricongne, Jean-Charles. "Essais sur les liens internationaux entre économie financière et économie réelle pendant la crise." Paris 1, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA010014.
Повний текст джерелаReiffers, Véronique. "Crise financière et économie réelle : l'exemple du krach boursier d'octobre 1987." Paris 1, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993PA010059.
Повний текст джерелаThe real effects weakness of the stock market crash in october 1987 have surprised most of the economists. Would this shock neutrality over global demand tend towards proving that the supporters of financial-real dichotomy are right ? at first we analyse theories studying the real spreading ways of a changing in financial assets prices and especially stocks. In a second part we confront the 1987 reality with theories and try to explain the real effects limitations mechanisms, that is on households consumption and firms investment. Thirdly we show what is the government intervention part in this deconnection. These large, quick, and internationally coordinated interventions have circumbscrimbed the crash to the financial area, maintaining confidence in the future. Regarding the global expectation system, these public actions have contributed to thwart the real consequences, creating a collective rationality that induced non-rationality at the indivudal level at variance with theorical precepts
Jean-Pierre, Philippe. "Diversité des dynamiques de convergence réelle des régions européennes : bilan empirique et éclairage théorique." Paris 1, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999PA010011.
Повний текст джерелаThe road towards the european monetary union is not without setting the problem of the regional convergence process. This concern is all the more important that the empirical and theoretical contribution on european regions give ambigous results. The aim of this work is also double. Its first objective is to deep the empirical analysis of the catching up process of the european regions. Its second objective is to propose a theoretical framework which can improve the understanding of the previous results. These last show the diversity of the convergence processes which characterize the european regions and highlight the difficulties for lagging regions to catch-up with the middle gdp per capita of the European regions (part I). This result is confirmed by the analysis of the dynamic of growth of a region La Réunion, which is submitted to a special developing policy for more than forty years. This case study suggests also that the impact of public transfers, sent to La Réunion, on its growth is not as positive as we can believe (partie II). This concerns is supported by a theoretical analysis of the impact of transfers on the dynamic of growth of economies. Indeed, the construction of model of growth for european regions allows to show that similar regions, in terms of preference and technological parameters, can be characterized by different catching-up processes and that public tranfers produce indirect effects that can offset their initial positive effects on the growth and the catching-up process of the developing regions (partie III)
Chevrou-Sevérac, Hélène. "Convergence monétaire et convergence réelle à la veille de l'UEM." Aix-Marseille 2, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001AIX24017.
Повний текст джерелаNguyen, Minh Chau. "Flux monétaires, prix d'actifs et activité réelle." Rennes 1, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012REN1G014.
Повний текст джерелаThis thesis focuses, firstly, on the relationship between excess liquidity and asset price variations, and secondly, on the impact of asset price dynamics on the real sector. In selecting indicators derived from ratios and monetary aggregates, we can find evidences that highlight the significant role played by excess money creation on asset prices, especially property price. The instability in the response of stock price facing a liquidity shock could be partially explained by the effect of liquidity absorption of an asset price compared to another one. This phenomenon, by concentrating liquidity in some types of asset, may amplify the upward movements in asset prices and push them to depart from their fundamental values. From this point of view, the economic growth and a stable and moderate inflation constituted a favorable environment to the deviation of asset prices in response to an excess of liquidity. The dynamics of asset prices can have effects that spill over into real activity via the channel of the wealth effect on the one hand and the financial accelerator mechanism on the other hand. Our econometric investigation suggests that the economic effects of asset prices on the real sector could be disproportionate in different countries and types of asset. In particular, property price has a predominant impact on real activity in comparison to the stock price. Our results open perspectives for future research on a specific role for asset prices to monetary policy
Tykhonenko, Anna. "Convergence réelle des pays de l'Est en transition : analyse empirique des processus de convergence à la lumière des développements récents de la théorie de la croissance." Nice, 2003. http://www.theses.fr/2003NICE0057.
Повний текст джерелаThe EU elargement towards the East remains an ambitious project : disparities of the revenus per habita (as well within the PECO as with the EU members) can blame the feasibility of the Europe with homogeneous growth. Thus, the object of the thesis is to check the existence of the real convergence process between the European countries, made possible thanks to the catching-up process of the transition economy. If real convergence is empirically checked, at which speed is it done and which are the relevant variables to describe its mechanism? Thanks to the theoretical and empirical lessons, several hypothesis of the real convergence (beta and sigma) are released in order to be tested on the cross-section and on the panel data. The both empirical approaches let to obtain the convergent conclusions. Indeed, the results tend to the beta-conditional convergence. In panel data, in particular, the heterogeneity of the convergence rates contradict the thesis on the uniformity of the catching-up process in the Eastern Europe. Thus, the EU enlargement seems to lead to the "Europe at several speeds"
Deisting, Florent. "Convergence réelle et nominale entre les pays du sud et de l'est de la Méditerranée et les pays du sud de l'Union européenne." Pau, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010PAUU2017.
Повний текст джерелаFor several decades the MENA's Countries engaged in processes of transformation which were concretized by the implementation of many action plans (plane of adjustment structural,. . . ). Even if all these countries did not reach the same level of advance in the reforms, one awaits these policies which they support the process of growth and economic development. These reformes accompanied a more general movement by liberalization of the economies to the international level. From this point of view the MENA did not make exception. On the one hand, as of the years 1950, the first South-South agreements were born ; in addition the Euro-Mediterranean partnership, or agreements today are rather well encircled. It is initially a question of increasing the size of the markets, to profit from economies of scale. In second place, the diversification of the commercial exchanges by the suppression of the tariffs in the regional agreement (trade intra-connects). Lastly it is a question of operating a process of stabilization monetary, essential condition with a sustainable development of the countries. From this point of view, the objective of this work will be to analyze thoroughly the economic phenomenon of convergence of the MENA and to deduce some from the political reform proposals, economically effective but also socially acceptable, so that the least advenced countries can make a movement of correction. To treat these dynamic ones, one will initially retain a panel of 16 countries, representative of widened a Mediterranean zone
Bădoiu, Mihaela Cătălina. "Disparités régionales et croissance économique en Europe de l'Est : l’impact de l'utilisation des fonds européens sur la convergence réelle en Roumanie." Thesis, Lille 1, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019LIL1A025.
Повний текст джерелаThe PhD thesis entitled "Regional disparities and economic growth in Eastern Europe - The impact of European Funds on real convergence in Romania" aimed at conducting an impact analysis of the European integration on real convergence in Eastern European Member States, during the 2007-2013 programming period. Using a mix of specific methods, techniques and software, the research included a series of analyses on the Structural Funds allocated to the regions of three Eastern European countries (Poland, Romania and Bulgaria), an inventory of good practices (the case of Portugal, considered a success story within this investigative framework), as well as statistical models of convergence testing, which sought to measure the effect of allocations on regional economic growth. In the last part of the paper, we analyzed the social perception on European integration and regional policies, in order to further outline some measures which are relevant to the improvement of the management of the regional operational programs. The main original points of the paper are: an interdisciplinary analysis on the impact of European Funds, during the 2007-2013 reference period, using various statistical and econometric methods of hypothesis testing; the presentation of good practices in the implementation of regional projects that can be replicated in Eastern Europe; a comparative analysis (in certain time intervals, as well as qualitatively, through documentary analysis) in the three aforementioned Eastern European States. Another contribution is the analysis method of the impact of EU Funds, which is based on correlating the program indicators with the Eurostat indicators, but also on testing the speed with which the analysed countries can reach convergence. Other original elements are the analysis of Romanian citizens’ perception on the political cohesion problem, which was done by conducting and interpreting over 400 questionnaires, in the Bucharest-Ilfov and North-East regions (which report the highest disparities), as well as a number of 10 interviews with direct beneficiaries of regional projects, and last, but not least, a set of measures aiming to increase the quality of the institutional services of Management Authorities, in order to make the implementation of the Regional Operational Program more efficient. The main conclusions of the research suggest that at European Union level, the models applied on national level data show that the process of convergence between the EU27 Member States is currently taking place and the interregional divergences have accentuated. Convergence is predicted to be achieved between (the pessimistic and optimistic scenario): 25 and 11 years for Romania, between 24 and 10 years for Poland and between 37 and 19 years for Bulgaria. Following the interpretation of the perception analysis data, it is found that Romania was a real beneficiary of the integration in the European Union, and the access to non-reimbursable funds (including funds provided by the Regional Operational Program) provided many economic, social, cultural, touristical benefits, infrastructure development, etc
Belardello, Mario Jovani. "Etudes sur la nature et les causes du transfert de la richesse entre la sphère réelle et la sphère financière : théorie d'une économie discriminante fondée sur la maximisation des mécanismes de capture des flux économiques." Paris 2, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000PA020105.
Повний текст джерелаKandel, Marguerite. "Evaluation médico-économique de la prise en charge du mélanome métastatique en vie réelle à partir de la cohorte MELBASE." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019SACLS381.
Повний текст джерелаSince 2011, the commercialization of 8 new drugs has greatly improved the management of patients with metastatic melanoma (MM). Before 2011, it was mainly based on cytotoxic chemotherapy where patient’s survival estimated at 1 year did not exceed 20%. Since 2011, the approval of 8 molecules has significantly enhanced patient management and today 1 year estimated patient’s survival is up to 80%. The 8 therapeutic strategies have shown their efficacy through phase III clinical trials, but these different analyses have some limitations inherent to the context of clinical trials. First, the patients included in the trials are selected and are not representative of real-life patients. In addition, physicians have a significant number of therapeutic options available and patients are now treated by several treatment lines. Given the significant clinical benefit of these drugs, they have obtained high prices, up to 1,000 times higher than older treatments, raising the question of their efficiency.Therefore, the main objective of this thesis is to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of MM management, including the different treatment sequences, in real life, in France, in 2019. However, the analysis of observational data raises methodological challenges related to the use of data collected in real-life. Also the secondary objective of this work is a methodological reflexion on, how to adapt existing methodologies used in cost-effectiveness analysis in order to propose a methodology appropriate for medico-economic studies performed in a cohort.This work was based on a cohort of MM patients, the MelBase cohort.The first part of this work estimated the cost of MM management since the arrival of innovations including the different treatment lines, in real-life clinical practice. A multi-state model was used to extrapolate costs considering dynamically the individual risks and events occurring during the observation period. In 2017, the cost of MM treatment was estimated at €269,682 [95%CI: 244,196; 304,916] per patient, a cost roughly multiplied by 165 since 2004, mainly due to increased treatment costs and prolonged survival.The second part of the thesis described the quality of life (QoL) of MM patients, and more specifically the impact of therapy change was assessed on QoL evolution. This study showed that QoL is fairly stable over time, except at time of treatment change where a statistically significant QoL, albeit a limited decrease is observed.The first 2 parts of this work allowed estimating the cost and QoL of patients with MM. Based on these results, the efficiency of immunotherapies and targeted therapies in MM, in France, was evaluated.In the BRAF population, only 2 strategies are present on the efficiency frontier. The increment cost-effectiveness ratio of the Anti-PD1-Bi-targeted therapy compared to the Mono-targeted therapy-Anti-PD1 is estimated at 180 441€/QALY. Among the WILD population, the 4 strategies are on the frontier of efficiency. For thresholds between 0 and 800 000€ only the Chemotherapy-Immunotherapy strategy has more than 50% chance of being efficient.In addition to clinical and economic results, this work highlights the importance of using observational data. With continues arrival of oncology treatments and the increase of patient follow-up (linked to a prolonged duration of treatment as well as management by multiple treatment lines), there is a need for more mature overall survival data. However, the methodological tools of cost-effectiveness analysis conducted in parallel with clinical trials seem no longer suitable for observational data, which need to be adapted
Encontre, Pierre. "Détermination du taux de change d'équilibre en économie sous-développée : application à huit pays d'Afrique centrale." Clermont-Ferrand 1, 1985. http://www.theses.fr/1985CLF1D030.
Повний текст джерелаDemba, Christian. "La ceeac : une réelle intégration économique ?" Montpellier 1, 1994. http://www.theses.fr/1994MON10022.
Повний текст джерелаThe economic community of central african states (e. C. C. A. S) puts on the center of his economic integration device a first rule from the liberty of circulation between their member countries. The opening of the frontiers which will follow, includes the risk that limit competition rise up. But the community trea tise havaly mentions the subject. The judicial insecurity which follows does not favour exchanges in the community ; so, ti is necessary to regulate competition from some national legislations. The effects that result of circulation liberty and free competition could be reduced by some political system of incitements to investments. It will however be necessary to overcome the numerous obstacles which bar the way to integration in central africa
Gaulier, Guillaume. "Intégration économique et convergences réelles." Paris 1, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002PA010026.
Повний текст джерелаLahrèche-Révil, Amina. "Taux de change réel et développement." Paris 1, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998PA010008.
Повний текст джерелаThe real exchange rate is analysed as a catalyst of economic development. The notion of real exchange rate is exposed in the preamble. Equilibrium long term real exchange rates are studied in the first chapter, and their usefulness and relevance in the second chapter. Chapter 3 examines the balassa-samuleson effect, using detailed price data; it is shown that the prices of tradable goods rise with economic development, and that the currencies of developing coutrnies are more and more undervalued vis-a-vis those of industriblised countries, due to the pegging of these currencies to the us dollar. The second part offers an explanation to this pegging behavior, suggesting that the real exchange rate is a determinant of growth. After presenting the different (internal and external) engines of growth (chapter 4), a model of endogenous growth including an underdevelopment trap is proposed, where the real exchange rate can foster growth (chapter 5). In chapter 6, an empirical test of the model is successfully performed|
Kabore, Philippe. "Détermination du PIB réel trimestriel du Québec et analyse du cycle économique, 1948-1964." Mémoire, Université de Sherbrooke, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11143/5892.
Повний текст джерелаHadj, Amor Thouraya. "Variabilité du taux de change réel, intégration financière internationale et croissance économique : une application aux économies émergentes." Nice, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007NICE0024.
Повний текст джерелаTwo major facts hold place to explain the interest of the variability of Real exchange rate (RER) in emergent countries. First, the International Financial integration (IFI), corollary of the abandonment of Bretton-Woods's system, and the proliferation of floating exchange rate regimes, amplified partially fluctuations and disequilibria of RER, notably in emergent countries. Then, the frequent exchange rate fluctuations, called volatility of RER, and the recurrent distortion, called misalignment of RER, build generally a matrix of crises and lower economic performance. These considerations drove economists to reconsider the question of the variability of RER, its determinants and its induced effects on the economic growth in emergent countries. Also, this question occupies a crucial position in research articulating macroeconomic and international finance. Our thesis appears in such a perspective of research; it is a reflection on the characterization of the nature and the extent of the mediation between RER variability and economic growth in the context of International Financial Integration The empirical validation of such a characterization took support on a widened sample constituted of heterogeneous emergent countries, on the one hand, and on an intensive recourse to econometric tools, on the other one. In addition, it has been question of empiric estimation articulating relatively recent econometric techniques, as the GMM in dynamic panel, panel co-integration and the method of Dynamics of Least Squared (DOLS). To the term of this empirical effort, we are allowed to note that the RER variability is an explanatory element of the economic decrease in emergent countries, decrease amplified by the IFI that intensifies this variability
Pochet, Buttin Christine. "Le fonctionnement réel du marché du travail." Paris 9, 1986. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=1986PA090012.
Повний текст джерелаHow does the labor market actually works ? The labor market is nowadays characterized by a high rigidity of wages, which decrease very little even when the supply of labor is high. Thus, this renewed study of the labor market will mainly rely on the analysis of quantity adjustments. First, the concept of labor market is abandonned and the concept of qualification market is ontroduced. Labor is no longer considered as a homogeneous factor, as in the classical theory. This work will demonstrate that qualified labor is exchanged on the labor market i. E labor which is characterized by skills required for a job or mastered by an applicant. This market place will be called the qualification market. Then, this work will analyse how the qualification market actually works. A short-term attitude of business firms will be to take advantage of the flexibility of every employee's qualification (by in-house training) to fit the requirements of production. This phenomenom is particularly obvious at the level of local labor markets. In the long run, technical innovations and the differential development of
Barjou, Florence. "Crédit, investissement des entreprises et cycle économique : une voie d'intégration entre sphères monétaro-financière et réelle." Paris 10, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000PA100019.
Повний текст джерелаLe, Flanchec Thibault. "Stratégie de gestion de portefeuille actions : de la conciliation de la performance financière et de la performance extra-financière." Electronic Thesis or Diss., La Rochelle, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022LAROD004.
Повний текст джерелаResponsible investment is a facet of market finance including two substructures: financial and ethical. This thesis seeks to combine these two bases, with a view to bringing out an equity portfolio management strategy combining financial and extra-financial performance. It is structured in four chapters, following a logic of structure and aiming at the same final goal. The first chapter consists of a logical-deductive study of financial theories and the various factors influencing the activity of portfolio management. The results indicate that the most financially responsible strategy and correlated to the real economy is Value-Quality. The second chapter is composed of a comparative study of the financial performance and the risk/return ratio of four Value-Quality portfolios with their investment universe. This study carried out on the French stock market for the period 1999-2019 seems to indicate that the financial markets are inefficient and that an investment strategy combining a low level of valuation and high profitability offers an abnormally high performance. The third chapter studies in a logical-deductive way the components of extra-financial analysis as well as the main related theories. The results indicate that the current extra-financial methods are victims of many limitations and lack clarity and materiality. The fourth chapter is composed of two studies. The first testing the extra-financial performance of SRI funds stipulates that these funds are unable to stand out from their investment universe in terms of climate and controversy. The second study consists of measuring the performance gap between a VQEF strategy and the investment universe. This last study allows us to indicate that it is possible to associate financial and extra-financial performance in a Value-Quality portfolio management strategy integrating an exclusion filter
Poilly, Céline. "Essais sur les rigidités nominales, les frictions réelles et la politique monétaire." Cergy-Pontoise, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008CERG0396.
Повний текст джерелаThe aim of this thesis is to use modern tools of structural macroeconomics so as to analyze monetary policies. Price and wage rigidities and real frictions on the labor market are examined. In the first chapter, we evaluate a structural micro-founded macroeconomic model. In the second chapter, we evaluate disinflation policies in a New Keynesian model. In the third chapter, we reconsider some stylized facts proposed by the SVAR literature concerning the effects of a monetary policy shock. Finally, in the last chapter, we focus on real frictions on the labor market. We use a normative approach in order to evaluate the welfare cost of these frictions in a monetary union
Poupardin, Elsa. "La " nouvelle économie " dans la presse française entre 1999 et 2001 : de la frivolité médiatique à la neutralisation du " réel " dans le discours de vulgarisation." Phd thesis, Université Paris-Diderot - Paris VII, 2004. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00662796.
Повний текст джерелаBou, habib Chadi. "Flux internationaux, hypertrophie bancaire et syndrome hollandais dans les petites économies ouvertes." Thesis, Lyon 2, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012LYO22014/document.
Повний текст джерелаForeign financial inflows have developed quickly in the past 40 years. These inflows have increased the ability of the banking sector to further finance domestic demand. The transformation of foreign financial inflows into an income and demand shock generates Dutch Disease adjustments; with change in relative prices and adjustments in the productive system, resources movement, and change in the absolute and relative remunerations of factors of production. The phenomenon is of great importance in the case of small open economies that are price takers in the international market and exposed to exogenous shocks. We conceptualize the transmission of the shock and the adjustments over different time horizons for an economy composed of two sectors; one producing traded goods and the other producing non-traded goods. This economy is endowed with two factors of production, labor and capital, substitutable and mobile as time elapses. We experiment this conceptual framework in the cases of Lebanon, Luxemburg, and Iceland; the three economies having large banking sectors and benefiting from large foreign financial inflows prior to the 2008 crisis. We find that the direction and intensity of adjustments over the medium term depend on the differential of capital intensity between sectors. Over the longer term, the supply of factors of production would change. We also simulate the impact of policy choices, with focus on reserves policies, policies of money and credit, fiscal policies, and structural policies. The combination of measures leads to better results without putting the burden of the mitigation of adjustments on one single policy instrument
Hilmi, Nathalie. "La dimension réelle des processus d'intégrations mondiale et régionale : le cas de la Turquie." Nice, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000NICE0076.
Повний текст джерелаThe concepts of globalization and regionalization seem to be born at the end of the XX th century. In fact, they were differently represented the preceding periods. Multilateralism looks like being dying with the problems that met the last GATT negotiations, during the Uruguay Round, and bilateralism was taking its place in the recent conferences. However, the two aspects are not antagonist, but complementary. The foundation of the WTO strengthens the international size and establishes the framework for the regional agreements, while the national states adapt themselves to these new contexts. The LDC could not anymore easily obtain resources after the debt crisis of the 80’s. So, they are obliged to find other ways to finance their development thanks to foreign trade. Moreover, these outward policies are imposed on them by the structural adjustment policies of the international organisms. These trade reforms are implemented in a regional framework too for the countries, which would like to join a group to gain more influence on the global level
Nyankiye, Francine. "Modèle de cycle réel pour une petite économie ouverte: le cas du Cameroun." Mémoire, Université de Sherbrooke, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/11143/8277.
Повний текст джерелаGente, Karine. "Les fondamentaux du taux de change réel d'équilibre dans une petite économie ouverte." Aix-Marseille 2, 2001. http://theses.univ-amu.fr.lama.univ-amu.fr/2001AIX24001.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаHoarau, Jean-François. "Le mésalignement du taux de change réel dans le cadre d'une petite économie ouverte : causes, procédures d'estimation et politiques de correction : une application à l'économie Australienne." La Réunion, 2004. http://elgebar.univ-reunion.fr/login?url=http://thesesenligne.univ.run/04_18_Hoarau.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаThis thesis aims at analysing the conceptual and operational aspects of the real exchange rate misalignment for a small open economy. The first part focuses on the theoretical definition of the real misalignment. For that purpose, we introduce a new version of the NATREX model which studies the importance of several crucial structural parameters and the effect of a set of fondamental determinants on the equilibrium real exchange rate. The second part deals with the operational aspects of the real misalignment for Australia over the period 1976-2000. On one hand, we determine by means of econometric tools some indicators for the equilibrium real exchange rate and the misalignment, and the possible presence of structural breaks in the misalignment behavior. On the hand, we show that economic policy holds a decisive place in the real exchange rate distortions analysis. Indeed, this one can be both a cause of and a cure for the misalignment
Salahaldin, Linda. "Utilisation des options réelles pour l’aide à la décision d’investissement dans le transport durable." Paris 9, 2007. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=2007PA090047.
Повний текст джерелаIn this thesis, we study the problem of investment in sustainable transport. We first develop a model, based on the IPAT method, to calculate the cost of transport externalities. Then, using real options method, we show how to maximize the inter-generational utility. First, under population growth uncertainty, we obtain explicit closed form expression for the population threshold above which it is optimal to invest. Second, under both demand and cost project uncertainties, like in the case of the construction of hydrogen infrastructure, we develop a numerical algorithm that helps making decisions. We calculate the expected waiting time until investing and show that we must wait a longer time before investing when the uncertainty is high
Maveyraud-Tricoire, Samuel. "Intégration économique, parité des taux d'intérêt réels et relation épargne-investissement." Bordeaux 4, 2004. http://www.theses.fr/2004BOR40007.
Повний текст джерелаKanouni, Hassani Rams. "Impact de l'incertitude sur la gestion de l'environnement et des ressources naturelles : une analyse en temps continu par la programmation dynamique et les options réelles." Thesis, Université Laval, 2006. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2006/23775/23775.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаUsing tools from mathematical finance and economic theory, this thesis studies the impact of uncertainty and irreversibility on decision-making related to the management of pollution, energy production, and the extraction of a non-renewable resource. It consists of three essays. The first essay analyzes the decision to invest to reduce the emissions of a stock pollutant under two types of uncertainty: economic (emissions are stochastic because of changes in economic activity) and environmental (which affects directly the stock of pollutant). A number of recent papers find that the decision to invest to reduce the emissions of a stock pollutant should be delayed in the presence of sunk costs and uncertainty. Using concepts from the theory of Real Options, we formulate a social planning problem in continuous time, derive the corresponding optimal stopping rule, and show that when economic or environmental uncertainty is large enough, it is optimal to invest immediately to reduce emissions. These results have implications for the management of stock pollutants and particularly for global warming. The second essay is concerned with the valuation of energy generating assets in a deregulated electricity market. The recent wave of deregulation initiatives in the electricity industry has created the need to value energy-generating assets in an uncertain environment in order to facilitate their sale. However, a number of authors have noted discrepancies between valuations predicted by a conventional cost-benefit approach and observed transactions. In this chapter, I analyze the importance of explicitly accounting for technological constraints in the generation process by modeling the decision to start and stop the production of electricity by a gas-powered plant. With the inclusion of these constraints, the generator may be in two different states, idle or generating electricity. In either state its operator has a call option to switch to the other state. These options depend on the spark spread (the difference between the price of electricity and the price of the fuel used to generate it, adjusted for equivalent units), which is assumed to follow a mean reverting process with regime changes. I use data from the California deregulated market to estimate the thresholds for starting and stopping production. These results are entered in a simple simulation framework to estimate the value of the electricity-generating asset in a competitive market. I find significant differences between a standard cost-benefit analysis and this Real Options approach. In my third essay, I derive a testable form of the price dynamics of a non-renewable natural resource in the context of a general equilibrium portfolio choice model where the representative agent has a non-expected utility function. The non-renewable nature of the resource introduces an element of irreversibility in the portfolio choice. An analog of Hotelling's rule is derived. In an expected utility framework, the difference between the rate of return of the risky asset (the non-renewable resource) and that of the riskless one equals a risk premium that depends only on the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the covariance between consumption and the return of the risky asset. I show that with this more general specification of the utility function, the risk premium depends also on the instantaneous elasticity of substitution (IES, which is not necessarily equal to the inverse of the coefficient of relative risk aversion), the uncertainty of the indirect utility function and the uncertainty of the marginal utility of wealth. These results have important consequences. If the IES is large enough and if the uncertainty of the indirect utility function is small enough, a risk-averse consumer may be willing to pay a premium to hold the risky asset even though the covariance between its return and consumption is positive. This case is of course excluded in the expected utility framework.
Chihi, Meriam. "Propagation internationale de la crise des subprimes et mécanismes de transmission à la sphère réelle." Nice, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012NICE0032.
Повний текст джерелаThe objective of this thesis is to study the effects of contagion of the subprime crisis on the financial markets and analyze the mechanisms of its spread to the real economy of the developed countries such as (the United States, France, the Germany, Italy, Britain and Japan). To do this, we were interested, first, to modeling the contagion of subprimes market and five other U. S. Financial markets. We adopted a VAR model and applied it for two sub-periods, a period of crisis and a period of calm. Our results support the transmission of disturbances in the subprime market loans to other U. S. Financial markets and show that this crisis quickly turned into a severe financial crisis in 2008. This financial crisis has spread rapidly throughout the world. We analyzed the transmission of shocks and volatility between the stock markets surveyed, on the one hand, and the correlations between these markets, on the other. We estimated a Markov Switching GARCH model to show the existence of effects of co-movement and contagion between the indices studied and the BEKK-GARCH model to test the transmission of shocks and volatility across markets. The DCC-GARCH model is estimated to show the effect of subprime crisis on the increase in volatility and correlations in stock markets and the presence of dynamic correlations between them. Our results support the transmission of disturbances between financial markets. Once widespread in the various financial markets, this crisis eventually led to a recession in the advanced economies. Therefore, we used the VAR models to test the existence of the contagion effects from the financial to the real economy in the six developed countries studied. Our results confirm that the financial turmoil has a recessionary impact on consumption and investment
Rwagitinywa, Joseph. "Mesure d'exposition, d'adhérence et d'impact économique réel des antirétroviraux génériques." Thesis, Toulouse 3, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017TOU30236/document.
Повний текст джерелаGeneric antiretroviral (ARV) drugs use in developing countries has significantly reduced the cost of and increased the access to HIV treatment which contributed to the decrease in HIV related deaths and the increase of life expectancy. WHO recommendations since 2015 suggest that antiretroviral therapy should be initiated upon discovery of HIV status, regardless of immune, virological or clinical status. Since the first generic ARVs were marketed in Europe from 2012, this should contribute to an increase in the consumption of ARVs, particularly in Europe where the incidence of HIV has remained stable for ten years. However, generic ARV drugs use in developed countries arouses as much interest as interrogations. A French study highlighted the reluctance of physicians to prescribe and patients to take generic ARVs. Our first objective was to estimate the level of exposure to generic ARVs in real life in France since their commercialization from the SNIIRAM (Système National d'Information Inter-régimes de l'Assurance Maladie) database, to define the profile of patients exposed to generics versus those likely to be exposed but who were not, and to determine the factors associated with this exposure. Substitution of brands by the available generics may increase the daily number of tablets the patient should take and consequently decrease treatment adherence, however crucial for therapeutic success. Our second objective was to assess adherence to the regimen that incorporate generic ARV drugs and compare it to that of patients likely to be switched to generic ARVs but who were not. Furthermore, simulation studies have estimated large savings due to the substitution of brand ARVs by generics in developed countries. However, this strongly depends on the level of generic use. Our third objective was to quantify the level of consumption of ARV drugs and associated expenditures in Europe over the past decade and to determine the real impact of generic ARVs use on cost reduction. This work provides new data on ARV exposure in the general population, showing the low penetration of generics since they were made available, despite treatment adherence similar to that observed under brand-names. For each study, an innovative methodological approach was developed to use the SNIIRAM databases in this area
Seppecher, Pascal. "Modélisation multi-agents d'une économie monétaire de production : un système dynamique et complexe d'interactions réelles et monétaires entre des agents multiples, hétérogènes, autonomes et concurrents." Phd thesis, Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00693151.
Повний текст джерелаNeto, Delfim Gomes. "Mouvements de capitaux, croissance, taux de change réel et libéralisation économique." Paris, EHESS, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001EHES0019.
Повний текст джерелаDrine, Imed. "Dynamique du taux de change réel et performances économiques : une application aux économies émergentes." Paris 1, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002PA010039.
Повний текст джерелаYougbaré, Lassana. "Effets macroéconomiques des régimes de change : essais sur la volatilité, la croissance économique et les déséquilibres du taux de change réel." Clermont-Ferrand 1, 2009. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00377436/document.
Повний текст джерелаRecognizing the importance of the exchange rate system for open economies, we study the macroeconomic effects of exchange rate regimes. In the first chapter, we define the exchange rate regime and discuss the official or de jure classification of exchange regimes by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as well as de factoclassifications developed by Levy Yeyati and Sturzenegger (2005) and by Reinhart and Rogoff (2003). We subsequently discuss the question of which classification(s) of regimes to use. In the second chapter, the impact of exchange rate regimes on growth volatility is investigated. Building on the literature on the relationships between the exchange rate arrangement and volatility and the literature on the determinants of growth volatility, the objective is to know whether the exchange rate system affects growth volatility once the determinants of volatility identified by the existing literature are controlled for. The chapter also assesses the channels through which the exchange rate regime affects volatility. In particular, we ask whether the contribution of terms of trade instability to growth volatility is influenced by the exchange rate arrangement. Is the impact of the exchange rate regime on volatility affected by financial and economic development ? Volatility or instability is measured from a trend which process is obtained from panel unit root tests. By using de jure exchange rate regimes along with de facto ones as classified by Reinhart et Rogoff (2003), we are able to assess the sensitivity of the results to the classification of exchange regimes. In the third chapter, the analysis is taken a step further by investigating whether the relation between growth and volatility is modified by the exchange rate system. Does the exchange rate regime modify the direct impact of volatility on growth ? In other words, does a given level of volatility reduces output growth identically under fixed and flexible regimes ? Moreover, are the indirect effects of volatility on the growth rate of per capita real output modified by the exchange rate system ? To answer the latter question, the channels of investment, human capital, trade and financial development are considered. Another objective of the chapter is to verify whether the effects of exchange rate regimes and volatility on output growth are heterogeneous or not according to the very quantiles of output growth. To pursue this avenue, we use the technique of regression quantiles with instrumental variables. In the fourth chapter, the impact of the exchange rate arrangement on the economy's adjustment is analyzed. Does the adjustment of the economy – measured by real exchange rate misalignment – depend on the exchange rate regime ? Is the impact of the exchange rate system on misalignment explained by its effects on real overvaluation and undervaluation episodes ? What do de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes, and deviations of announced from observed exchange rate policies reveal ? To answer these questions, we follow two steps. In the first one, a cointegration relation between the real exchange rate and its real and nominal determinants is estimated using non stationary panel techniques (Pedroni, 1996, 2000 and 2004) in the samples of low income, middle income and high income countries. Misalignment is then obtained as the deviation of the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium value, the latter being determined by the equilibrium values of the fundamentals. In the second step, the impact of the exchange rate regime on the economy's adjustment is assessed using the measure of real exchange rate misalignment computed in the first step
Saguan, Marcelo. "L'Analyse économique des architectures de marché électrique. L'application au market design du temps réel." Phd thesis, Université Paris Sud - Paris XI, 2007. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00281131.
Повний текст джерелаSaguan, Marcelo. "L'analyse économique des architectures de marché électrique : application au "market design" du "temps réel"." Paris 11, 2007. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00281131.
Повний текст джерелаGabriel, Florent. "Productivité et régulation : le dépassement de la dichotomie du réel et du monétaire comme solution au problème de la valeur." Paris 8, 1994. http://www.theses.fr/1994PA080869.
Повний текст джерелаThe goal of this work was to provide a solution of value's problem of ricardo and marx, wich need to criticize the value repartition confusion and the dichotomy of real and monetary. This solution lay down a new articulation between productivity and regulation wich try carry a solution of unemployment by the cuts in work-time and a new extensiv growth
Bensahel, Wassila. "Création de valeur au sein des entreprises intensives en immatériel : le cas des entreprises de biothechnologie." Lille 2, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008LIL20002.
Повний текст джерелаThe objective of this work is to present a modelling of the value creation process adapted to the intangible-intensive firms, the specificity of which erodes any comparison with the traditional firms, and militates for a change of manager mantality and adoption of new approaches allowing the consideration of real and hidden sources of value. The first part of the thesis proposes a presentation of the intangible-intensive firms and of their specificities and characteristics. It also proposes a modelling of their value creation process reflecting the fundamental sources of value, with the dual aim of application to intangible and presentation of the new real options approach leading in fact to better evaluations. The second part of the thesis presents the chosen research context : the biotecnology firms. On the basis of this choice, our empirical analysis is based and our methodological frame is built by following three steps : a case study, a qualitative study based on expert interviews and finally an additional quantitative study. The last part of the thesis suggests demonstrating the descriptive and explanatory capacity of our grid of reading as well as its impacts with regard to our research problem
Vlavonou, Firmin. "Modèle factoriel dynamique contraint à régimes markoviens pour l'évaluation en temps réel du cycle économique." Thesis, Université Laval, 2013. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2013/30237/30237.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаThis thesis is composed of three essays on real-time forecasting dynamic factor models. The main objective is to provide frameworks for high-frequency business cycle analysis in the presence of data revisions. This is relevant for three reasons. First, business cycle forecasting is a central question in macroeconometrics. Secondly, policy-makers would benefit from having access to timely, high-frequency information about business conditions to inform their decisions. Finally, decisions must frequently be made based on data that are subject to revision, and this data uncertainty should be incorporated into the decision-making process. After a review of the empirical business cycle literature and of models of business cycle turning points, we propose a rigorous framework for estimating monthly real US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A recurring problem in this class of models is that estimates for monthly GDP are generally not consistent with quarterly estimates in the same way that quarterly estimates are not consistent with annual data. Our approach solves this problem. In the first essay (chapter 2), we develop and estimate a dynamic factor model treating the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an unobservable latent variable. In contrast with existing approaches, the quarterly averages of our monthly estimates are exactly equal to the Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly estimates. By construction, our monthly estimates have the advantage of being both timely and easy to interpret. The second essay (chapter 3) extends this framework by adding a Markov-switching model of business cycle regimes to the dynamic factor model. The model is now one with three levels, two of which have latent dependent variables. We pay particular attention to the sensibility of the usual indicators at turning points. The industrial production index, manufacturing and trade sales transmit more information about business cycle shocks to the common component (monthly GDP) than does employment. Finally, we integrate data revisions into our Markov- switching dynamic factor model in order to evaluate the effects of the revisions process on monthly estimates. It appears that data revisions have a significant impact on the co-movement of variables and on turning points without compromising the asymmetric nature of the business cycle. Keywords : Dynamic Factor Model (DFM), High-frequency, Real-time, Markov-switching, unobservable components, Revisions, co-movement, Turning points, Asymmetric, Business cycle.
Herrera, Valencia Beethoven. "Mondialisation économique : le processus réel et financier, son impact en Amérique latine et en Colombie." Paris, Institut d'études politiques, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002IEPP0044.
Повний текст джерелаEl, Gemayel Joseph. "De la dynamique monétaire du processus hyperinflationniste dans une économie ouverte de petite taille : le cas du Liban." Paris 1, 1992. http://www.theses.fr/1992PA010043.
Повний текст джерелаDéry, Alexandre. "Comparaison à l'échelle réelle des performances d'un filtre conventionnel et d'un filtre au charbon activé en grains précédés d'une inter-ozonation." Thesis, Université Laval, 2012. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2012/29515/29515.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаA water quality monitoring was conducted on two full scale granular filters of the biggest water treatment plant of Québec City. One of the filters contains anthracite and sand layers, while the other contains granular activated carbon (GAC) and sand layers. Both filters, which are preceded by an inter-ozonation step, were operated in the same conditions during the study which happened during the second year of operation of these filters. The qualities of raw water, settled water, ozonated water and filtered water were monitored for 32 weeks, from May to December 2011, two times in a filtration cycle every two weeks. Globally, the GAC filter exhibited better organic matter removal performances but a lower turbidity removal performance than the anthracite filter. This allows a potential reduction in chlorine consumption for the GAC filter but this economy is shadowed by the very high cost of this filter media.
Kanouni, Hassani Rams, and Hassani Rams Kanouni. "Impact de l'incertitude sur la gestion de l'environnement et des ressources naturelles : une analyse en temps continu par la programmation dynamique et les options réelles." Doctoral thesis, Université Laval, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/18709.
Повний текст джерелаCette thèse utilise la mathématique et la théorie de l'économie financière pour étudier la gestion de la pollution, la valeur d'une centrale électrique thermique et le prix d'une ressource naturelle non renouvelable. Elle est composée de trois essais. Le premier essai analyse la décision d'investir afin de réduire les émissions d'un polluant de type stock sous deux types d'incertitude : économique (ce qui rend les émissions stochastiques car elles sont une conséquence de l’activité économique) et environnementale (ce qui affecte directement le stock de polluant). La littérature économique récente semble indiquer qu'en présence d'incertitude et de coûts irréversibles, l'action d’investir devrait être retardée. Nous utilisons des concepts de la théorie des options réelles et formulons ce problème de planificateur central comme un problème d'arrêt optimal en temps continu. Nous dérivons la règle d'arrêt correspondante et montrons que lorsque l'incertitude environnementale ou économique est suffisamment élevée, il est optimal d'investir immédiatement pour réduire les émissions. Ces résultats ont des implications sur la gestion des stocks de polluant stock, notamment pour la gestion des gaz à effet de serre. Le second essai s’appuie sur la théorie des options réelles pour évaluer la valeur d’une centrale électrique dans un marché déréglementé. Ce travail est motivé par la vague de déréglementation qui a sévi récemment dans le secteur de l'électricité. La littérature existante cherche plutôt à trouver la valeur d'option de vente d'une certaine quantité d'électricité à un moment donné dans le futur ou modélise la décision d'opérer une centrale électrique par simulation. Notre formulation considère qu'une usine de production d'électricité peut être dans deux états (à l'arrêt ou en fonctionnement); dans chaque état, la firme possède une option « call américaine » sur l'autre état et le passage d'un état à l'autre est coûteux. Nous supposons que le « spark spread » suit un processus de retour à la moyenne avec changements de régime et nous utilisons des données du marché californien pour notre application empirique. Nous montrons qu'avec la prise en compte des coûts de suspension et de génération d'électricité, il y a un effet d'hystérésis: les seuils de spark spread pour les décisions de produire et d'arrêter la production diffèrent. Nous utilisons ensuite ces règles de fonctionnement à court terme dans une méthodologie basée sur des simulations Monte Carlo pour estimer la valeur de la centrale. Le troisième essai rend plus générale la formulation du modèle de Gaudet et Khadr (1991) en considérant une fonction d'utilité non espérée afin de dériver une généralisation de la règle d'Hotelling. Alors que dans le cadre de l'utilité espérée la différence entre le taux de rendement espéré de l'actif risqué (la ressource non renouvelable) et celui d'un actif certain égale une prime de risque qui ne dépend que du coefficient d'aversion relative au risque et de la covariance entre la consommation et le rendement de l'actif risqué, cela n'est plus vrai avec notre fonction d'utilité plus générale. Nous montrons que la prime de risque dépend alors aussi de l'élasticité de substitution intertemporelle (qui n'est plus nécessairement égale à l'inverse du coefficient d'aversion relative au risque), de l'incertitude de l'utilité indirecte et de l'incertitude de l'utilité marginale de la richesse. La prise en compte de ces paramètres additionnels peut avoir des conséquences importantes. Supposons en effet que l'élasticité de substitution intertemporelle soit suffisamment élevée et que l'incertitude de l'utilité indirecte soit suffisamment faible relativement à celle de l'utilité marginale de la richesse. Alors, même si le consommateur est riscophobe et si la covariance entre la consommation et le rendement de la ressource non renouvelable est positive, il est possible que le consommateur exige une prime pour détenir l'actif risqué. Le taux de rendement espéré de ce dernier est inférieur au taux de rendement certain. Ce résultat est bien entendu exclu dans le cas de l'utilité espérée.
Using tools from mathematical finance and economic theory, this thesis studies the impact of uncertainty and irreversibility on decision-making related to the management of pollution, energy production, and the extraction of a non-renewable resource. It consists of three essays. The first essay analyzes the decision to invest to reduce the emissions of a stock pollutant under two types of uncertainty: economic (emissions are stochastic because of changes in economic activity) and environmental (which affects directly the stock of pollutant). A number of recent papers find that the decision to invest to reduce the emissions of a stock pollutant should be delayed in the presence of sunk costs and uncertainty. Using concepts from the theory of Real Options, we formulate a social planning problem in continuous time, derive the corresponding optimal stopping rule, and show that when economic or environmental uncertainty is large enough, it is optimal to invest immediately to reduce emissions. These results have implications for the management of stock pollutants and particularly for global warming. The second essay is concerned with the valuation of energy generating assets in a deregulated electricity market. The recent wave of deregulation initiatives in the electricity industry has created the need to value energy-generating assets in an uncertain environment in order to facilitate their sale. However, a number of authors have noted discrepancies between valuations predicted by a conventional cost-benefit approach and observed transactions. In this chapter, I analyze the importance of explicitly accounting for technological constraints in the generation process by modeling the decision to start and stop the production of electricity by a gas-powered plant. With the inclusion of these constraints, the generator may be in two different states, idle or generating electricity. In either state its operator has a call option to switch to the other state. These options depend on the spark spread (the difference between the price of electricity and the price of the fuel used to generate it, adjusted for equivalent units), which is assumed to follow a mean reverting process with regime changes. I use data from the California deregulated market to estimate the thresholds for starting and stopping production. These results are entered in a simple simulation framework to estimate the value of the electricity-generating asset in a competitive market. I find significant differences between a standard cost-benefit analysis and this Real Options approach. In my third essay, I derive a testable form of the price dynamics of a non-renewable natural resource in the context of a general equilibrium portfolio choice model where the representative agent has a non-expected utility function. The non-renewable nature of the resource introduces an element of irreversibility in the portfolio choice. An analog of Hotelling's rule is derived. In an expected utility framework, the difference between the rate of return of the risky asset (the non-renewable resource) and that of the riskless one equals a risk premium that depends only on the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the covariance between consumption and the return of the risky asset. I show that with this more general specification of the utility function, the risk premium depends also on the instantaneous elasticity of substitution (IES, which is not necessarily equal to the inverse of the coefficient of relative risk aversion), the uncertainty of the indirect utility function and the uncertainty of the marginal utility of wealth. These results have important consequences. If the IES is large enough and if the uncertainty of the indirect utility function is small enough, a risk-averse consumer may be willing to pay a premium to hold the risky asset even though the covariance between its return and consumption is positive. This case is of course excluded in the expected utility framework.
Using tools from mathematical finance and economic theory, this thesis studies the impact of uncertainty and irreversibility on decision-making related to the management of pollution, energy production, and the extraction of a non-renewable resource. It consists of three essays. The first essay analyzes the decision to invest to reduce the emissions of a stock pollutant under two types of uncertainty: economic (emissions are stochastic because of changes in economic activity) and environmental (which affects directly the stock of pollutant). A number of recent papers find that the decision to invest to reduce the emissions of a stock pollutant should be delayed in the presence of sunk costs and uncertainty. Using concepts from the theory of Real Options, we formulate a social planning problem in continuous time, derive the corresponding optimal stopping rule, and show that when economic or environmental uncertainty is large enough, it is optimal to invest immediately to reduce emissions. These results have implications for the management of stock pollutants and particularly for global warming. The second essay is concerned with the valuation of energy generating assets in a deregulated electricity market. The recent wave of deregulation initiatives in the electricity industry has created the need to value energy-generating assets in an uncertain environment in order to facilitate their sale. However, a number of authors have noted discrepancies between valuations predicted by a conventional cost-benefit approach and observed transactions. In this chapter, I analyze the importance of explicitly accounting for technological constraints in the generation process by modeling the decision to start and stop the production of electricity by a gas-powered plant. With the inclusion of these constraints, the generator may be in two different states, idle or generating electricity. In either state its operator has a call option to switch to the other state. These options depend on the spark spread (the difference between the price of electricity and the price of the fuel used to generate it, adjusted for equivalent units), which is assumed to follow a mean reverting process with regime changes. I use data from the California deregulated market to estimate the thresholds for starting and stopping production. These results are entered in a simple simulation framework to estimate the value of the electricity-generating asset in a competitive market. I find significant differences between a standard cost-benefit analysis and this Real Options approach. In my third essay, I derive a testable form of the price dynamics of a non-renewable natural resource in the context of a general equilibrium portfolio choice model where the representative agent has a non-expected utility function. The non-renewable nature of the resource introduces an element of irreversibility in the portfolio choice. An analog of Hotelling's rule is derived. In an expected utility framework, the difference between the rate of return of the risky asset (the non-renewable resource) and that of the riskless one equals a risk premium that depends only on the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the covariance between consumption and the return of the risky asset. I show that with this more general specification of the utility function, the risk premium depends also on the instantaneous elasticity of substitution (IES, which is not necessarily equal to the inverse of the coefficient of relative risk aversion), the uncertainty of the indirect utility function and the uncertainty of the marginal utility of wealth. These results have important consequences. If the IES is large enough and if the uncertainty of the indirect utility function is small enough, a risk-averse consumer may be willing to pay a premium to hold the risky asset even though the covariance between its return and consumption is positive. This case is of course excluded in the expected utility framework.
Tandja, Mbianda Charli. "Three essays on the financial economics of capital projects." Doctoral thesis, Université Laval, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/30334.
Повний текст джерелаThis thesis is comprised of three Chapters addressing theoretical and empirical issues concerning the financing of capital projects. In the first Chapter, Financial advisor reputation and the cost of debt: evidence from project finance loans, we formulate a theoretical model of the role and impact of financial advisors on large-scale investment project loans, and estimate it using a detailed dataset of project finance loans (Projectware). We test competing hypotheses on the value to project sponsors of financial advisors, and we examine the effects on loan characteristics of using common vs. individual advisors. We find that sponsors hire financial advisors to increase their debt levels rather on reducing asymmetric information between them and prospective lenders. In the second Chapter, Banks as both Advisor and Arranger: cost of debt evidence from project finance loans, we study the resolution of the problem of financial advisor reliability. This chapter examines, using data on project finance loans (Projectware), whether financial advisor involvement in the lending syndicate helps to solve their reliability problem. Using Projectware data on project finance (PF loans between 2001 and 2015, we test three competing hypotheses. Overall, our findings show that projects involving banks playing the dual role of FA and MLA have higher loan spreads with longer debt maturity than those without such banks playing the dual role. In the third Chapter, Real option valuation in a Gollier/Weitzman world: the effect of long-run discount rate uncertainty, we first derive an Ingersoll-Ross-type real option model under Gollier/ Weitzman long-run discount rate uncertainty, and then apply the model to the case of an oil field investment project. We show how long-run real option value and optimal investment timing are affected, and also that the results are consistent with recent evidence on corporate decision-making under incomplete preferences or ambiguity. We find that, compared with DDR, standard models using constant or mean-reverting interest rates undervalue projects and their real options to wait or to abandon.
M'Bakidi, Honoré-Magloire. "L' analyse monétaire de la balance des paiements : une tentative d'application aux économies de la banque des états de l'Afrique centrale." Clermont-Ferrand 1, 1985. http://www.theses.fr/1985CLF1D014.
Повний текст джерелаGuati, Rizlane. "La politique de change dans trois économies méditerranéennes : un essai d'évaluation des taux de change réels d'équilibre à partir d'une approche macroéconométrique : cas du Maroc, Tunisie et Egypte." Lyon, École normale supérieure lettres et sciences humaines, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008ENSF0045.
Повний текст джерелаThe aims of this thesis is to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate of three mediterranean countries : Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco. We have make use of a multinational model describing foreign exchanges with USA, Japan, Europe and the rest of the world during a period of 1980 to 2003, and as a theoretical framework we have used the FEER model (Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate) in the sens of Williamson. The current account balance targets, which are based on an estimation of mean-time determinants of current account, were calculated with an econometric procedure of dynamic panel using generalized moments GMM. We show as results of this thesis, that these countries' currencies are characterized with strong misalignments that explain theirs current disequilibriums and their vulnerability to external chocks
Yougbare, Lassana. "Effets macroéconomiques des régimes de change : essais sur la volatilité, la croissance économique et les déséquilibres du taux de change réel." Phd thesis, Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, 2009. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00377436.
Повний текст джерелаYamb, Elie Blaise Benjamin. "Mésalignement et dynamique de convergence du taux de change réel en zone CFA." Paris 1, 2007. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00326328.
Повний текст джерелаLarrain, Ríos Guillermo. "Taux de change réel, politique budgétaire et industrialisation." Paris, EHESS, 2004. http://www.theses.fr/2004EHES0120.
Повний текст джерелаThis thesies studies the properties of the non interventionist approach to development and the role of budget policies. Chile is a good case study. We broaden the industrialisation model by Murphy et al (1989) by opening the economy. Firms can finance the investment needed to change technology thanks to a real depreciation followed by an appreciation. This approach has limits. We consider the determinants of the real exchange rate beyond bydgetary policies. We focus hence on the role of public services and public investment. Industrialisation may appear in this non interventionist approach. Budget policy must be contractive initially, but expansionary afterwards. The obstacles to this approach suggest that industrialisation may be delayed relative to a well designed microeconomic policy