Дисертації з теми "Dynamic discrete choice experiments"
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Meginnis, Keila. "Strategic bias in discrete choice experiments." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2018. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/strategic-bias-in-discrete-choice-experiments(1a1407ed-c026-4d27-b336-3dfc69dba8d9).html.
Повний текст джерелаSagebiel, Julian. "Valuing improvements in electricity supply using discrete choice experiments." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Lebenswissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/17754.
Повний текст джерелаIn order to design electricity markets to simultaneously reduce the share of fossil fuels in energy production and meet the increasing demand for electricity, knowledge on consumer preferences is necessary. The goal of this cumulative dissertation is to contribute to the understanding of preferences of private households for electricity supply attributes in different contexts. In Paper 1 I review statistical methods to compare two frequently applied models, the random parameters logit and the latent class logit. The methods presented here can be readily used by other researchers and practitioners to better understand model performance which ultimately contributes to improving model choice in applied energy research. Based on the empirical findings of Paper 1, Paper 2 identifies preferences of private households in Hyderabad in India for electricity supply quality. The results indicate that willingness to pay for improvements are, on average, rather low. However, the preferences strongly vary between subjects. Papers 3 and 4 investigate preferences of German private households. In \textbf{Paper 3}, the respondents stated their preferences for the organization of the electricity distribution company under different renewable energy scenarios. It turned out that most people are willing to pay more for electricity supplied by municipally-owned companies and cooperatives. This additional willingness to pay increases disproportionally when the share of renewable energy is high. The paper identifies non-profit orientated distribution companies as potential drivers of the energy transition. Paper 4 investigates the determinants for the success of energy cooperatives in Germany. The results indicate that the governance of distribution companies impacts the choices of private households for electricity supply contracts. Especially, people preferred cooperative-like governance attributes.
Norets, Andriy. "Bayesian inference in dynamic discrete choice models." Diss., University of Iowa, 2007. http://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/148.
Повний текст джерелаSun, Fangfang. "On A-optimal Designs for Discrete Choice Experiments and Sensitivity Analysis for Computer Experiments." The Ohio State University, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1345231162.
Повний текст джерелаTinelli, Michela. "Developing and applying Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) to inform pharmacy policy." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.485814.
Повний текст джерелаMcIntosh, Emma Sarah. "Using discrete choice experiments to value the benefits of health care." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.401379.
Повний текст джерелаAloef, Fatimah. "Bayesian design of discrete choice experiments for valuing health state utilities." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2015. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/9446/.
Повний текст джерелаLancsar, Emily. "New methods to estimate individual level choice models and Hicksian welfare measure from discrete choice experiments." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.506557.
Повний текст джерелаCampbell, D. "Discrete choice experiments applied to the valuation of rural environmental landscape improvements." Thesis, Queen's University Belfast, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.438155.
Повний текст джерелаVass, Caroline Mary. "Using discrete choice experiments to value benefits and risks in primary care." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2016. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/using-discrete-choice-experiments-to-value-benefits-and-risks-in-primary-care(0e94b134-867d-4373-b1c0-9a32f5ce69f2).html.
Повний текст джерелаSukhin, David A. "Dynamic, personalized discrete choice incentive allocation to optimize system performance." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/113170.
Повний текст джерелаCataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 37-38).
Incentivization is a powerful way to get independent agents to make choices that drive a system to a desired optimum. Simply offering compensation for making a certain choice is enough to change the behavior of some people. If you incentivize the right choices, you can get closer to your desired choice-dependent goal. Ways to optimize these choices in an environment with many choices and many users is essential for achieving goals for the least cost. I examine how a model that is aware of the utility function of each choice and for each user in a system can optimally allocate incentives in real time while considering opportunity cost, personalized incentive response behavior, and maximizing marginal results. This method is useful in systems that have direct and private communication with each user but are limited by having users enter the system at different times. The method must offer a menu of choices and incentives on demand while still considering users that are yet to come. I discuss several solutions and benchmark them on the TRIPOD traffic optimization system which aims to incentivize users to make energy efficient daily commute choices. The final model incorporates user personalized incentives and opportunity cost of each incentive to achieve the optimal incentive allocation on an ad-hoc basis.
by David A. Sukhin.
M. Eng.
M.Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Blom, Västberg Oskar. "Five papers on large scale dynamic discrete choice models of transportation." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Systemanalys och ekonomi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-219882.
Повний текст джерелаModeller för reseefterfrågan har länge använts av besultsfattare såväl somforskare för att analysera effekterna av transportpolitiska åtgärder. Avhandlingenshuvudsakliga syfte har varit att bidra till utvecklandet av modellerför reseefterfrågan som är: känsliga för åtgärder som påverkar tidsvalför resor eller tids-rums begränsningar; och konsistent behandlar valet avantalet resor, avresetid, destination och färdmedel för en individ. Dettauppnås genom användandet av en dynamisk diskret valmodell (DDCM) förreseefterfrågan. Modellen klarar vidare av att gemensamt modellera bådedagligt resande med hänsyn till hur det påverkar behovet av andra resoröver en längre tidshorisont, där individer antas ta hänsyn till både när desenaste utfört olika aktiviteter samt framtida effekter av sina besult. Papper I utvecklar den dagliga komponenten i den föreslagna modellenför reseefterfrågan, presenterar en estimeringsteknik samt resultat från simuleringarmed valideringsresultat. Papper II förbättrar modellen genom attinkludera korrelation i preferenser under dagen med hjälp av en mixed-logitspecifikation. Papper III introducerar en koppling mellan dagar genom enDDCM med oändlig tidshorisont. För att den kombinerade modellen skullevara möjlig att estimera härleddes vilkor under vilka sekvensiell estimeringvar möjlig. Dessa vilkor möjligör därmed estimering av en specific typ avstorskaliga DDCM modeller i situationer när: den diskreta tillståndsvariabelnär delvis latent men där val observeras; där modellen återkommer tillett mindre tillståndrum; och där det mellan återkomsten till detta mindretillståndrum inte sker någon diskontering, nyttofunktionernas feltermer gesav i.i.d Gumble termer och övergångarna mellan disrekta tillståndsvariablerär deterministisk givet valet. Papper IV utvecklar en dynamiskt diskret-kontinuerlig valmodell för etthushålls beslut gällande antalet bilar att äga, deras bränsletyp samt årligamiltal för varje bil. Det därmed till att komibinera dynamiska och diskretkontinulerligavalmodeller för bilägande. DDCM med oändliga tidshorisonter är vanligt förekommande och användsi bland annat Papper III och IV i den här avhandlingen. Det harvarit väl etablerat att diskonteringsfaktorn måste vara strikt mindre än ettför att sådana modeller ska vara väldefinerade. Papper V visar hur det ärmöjligt tillåta diskonteringsfaktorer större än eller lika med ett, och därmedbeskriva agenter som: maximerar den genomsnittliga nyttan per steg (närdet inte sker någon diskontering); värderar framtiden högre än nutiden ochdärmed föredrar förbättrande sekvenser vilket också implicerar att de tarhöga kostnader så tidigt som möjligt och når ett potentiellt sluttillståndtidigare än optimalt.
Zhu, Liyu. "Discrete Brand Choice Models: Analysis and Applications." Diss., Available online, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007, 2007. http://etd.gatech.edu/theses/available/etd-07102007-142035/.
Повний текст джерелаEsogbue, Augustine, Committee Chair ; Griffin, Paul, Committee Member ; Lu, Jye-Chyi (JC), Committee Member ; Li, MinQiang, Committee Member ; McCarthy, Patrick, Committee Member.
Takama, Takeshi. "Stochastic agent-based modelling for reality : dynamic discrete choice analysis with interaction." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2005. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:07a643ed-c98a-4e66-936b-e8b558dbc1e3.
Повний текст джерелаOtsubo, Hironori. "Dynamic Volunteer's Dilemmas, Unique Bid Auctions, and Discrete Bottleneck Games: Theory and Experiments." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/194255.
Повний текст джерелаBansback, Nicholas Jonathan. "Investigating the use of discrete choice experiments to estimate societal health state utility values. Vol.1." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.531143.
Повний текст джерелаRegier, Dean A. "Discrete choice experiments informing cost benefit analysis: a Bayesian approach with an application to genetic testing." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.493481.
Повний текст джерелаClark, Michael D. "Eliciting preferences using discrete choice experiments in healthcare : willingness to pay, stakeholder preferences, and altruistic preferences." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2013. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/88792/.
Повний текст джерелаSan, Miguel Fernando. "Testing the assumptions of completeness, stability and rationality of preferences in health economics using discrete choice experiments." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.327014.
Повний текст джерелаHeidenreich, Sebastian. "Do I care or do I not? : an empirical assessment of decision heuristics in discrete choice experiments." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2016. http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk:80/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=229468.
Повний текст джерелаAlsaiari, Hamad Nasser. "Residential Preference at Transit-oriented Development: A Visual Choice Experiment." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/86176.
Повний текст джерелаPh. D.
The work of urban planners, urban designers, architects, and policy makers centers on improving the built environment and increasing the quality of people’s lives. However, their work entails making decisions that are not always in tandem with people’s preferences (e.g., increasing housing density, proposing a mix of land uses in residential neighborhoods, introducing public transportation close to where people live and work, to name a few). Due to the uncertainty surrounding people’s acceptance of modifications of the built environment, especially when it entails introducing residential attributes for the first time, this dissertation focused on 1) assessing residential preference near public transportation nodes in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia before operation of the public transportation system, and 2) assessing the extent to which advanced analytical methods are capable of providing a better understanding of residential preference differences among a seemingly homogenous sample of participants. The work in this dissertation was motivated by the increasing use of manipulated images in choice tasks, where participants are presented with multiple images, each depicting a residential scenario, as bundles to choose from, and their choice patterns then recorded and analyzed. The results showed that among the relatively homogenous sample of participants that was recruited, four significant residential preference patterns have emerged, which could be used to describe and predict residential preference and choice with great accuracy. This dissertation laid out several policy implications that could be useful in providing a built environment that matches with what people want. It also provided research implications and suggestions on the use of visual choice experiments for urban planners and designers that are well-developed in other fields of inquiry.
Sossong, Björn [Verfasser], Stefan [Akademischer Betreuer] Felder, and Hendrik [Akademischer Betreuer] Schmitz. "Applying discrete choice experiments to recent topics in health economics / Björn Sossong. Gutachter: Hendrik Schmitz. Betreuer: Stefan Felder." Duisburg, 2014. http://d-nb.info/1053913621/34.
Повний текст джерелаNiculescu, Mihai. "Towards a Unified Treatment of Risk and Uncertainty in Choice Research." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1249493228.
Повний текст джерелаGod, Jon. "Investerare & start-ups med fokus på hållbar utveckling : Discrete Choice Experiments för att undersöka investerares benägenhet att investera i hållbar utveckling." Thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för informationssystem och –teknologi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-36857.
Повний текст джерелаDå hållbar utveckling blir allt mer viktigt så behöver alla aktörer i samhället göra sin del för att minska de ibland katastrofala och långvariga klimatförändringarna som blir på grund av exempelvis en högre medeltemperatur på jorden. En av dessa aktörer är den privata sektorn där investerare har en stor påverkan i vilka företag som får möjlighet att testa sina idéer och göra skillnad i världen. Frågan är dock om investerare tar det ansvaret och investerar i start-up företag med fokus på hållbar utveckling i sin affärsmodell. Denna studie syftar till att undersöka hur benägen investerarna är att faktiskt göra detta. Detta testas genom ett Discrete Choice Experiment där 14 investerare fick välja mellan tre olika företag som har olika stort fokus på hållbar utveckling i sin affärsmodell. Företag A har minst fokus på hållbar utveckling, företag B har viss fokus och företag B har stort fokus på hållbar utveckling. Discrete Choice Experimentet distribuerades i enkätformat där företagen representerades av en Business Model Canvas vardera och investerarna fick först välja mellan företag A & B, sedan företag A & C, och till sist företag B & C. Resultatet från studien visar på att investerare vid 26 procent av gångerna skulle välja en start-up utan fokus på hållbar utveckling, 45 procent av gångerna en med visst fokus på hållbar utveckling och 29 procent av gångerna en start-up med stort fokus på hållbar utveckling. Undersökningen visar också på en differens mellan olika grupperingar då exempelvis de som identifierade sig som kvinnor var mer benägna att investera på hållbar alternativ än män. Dessutom visar ängelinvesterare tydligt på en större benägenhet att investera i start-ups med fokus på hållbar utveckling än riskkapitalister. Slutsatserna av studien är att dess syfte uppfyllts och forskningsfrågan besvarats med att investerare har en benägenhet att investera i start-ups med en visst fokus på hållbar utveckling men det fick inte bli för mycket fokus. Resultatet av undersökningen kan användas av företag som befinner sig i faser där de behöver investeringar samt att de kan se vilket typ av investerare de bör vända sig till för att få störst möjlighet till positivt resultat. Viktigt att ta med sig från undersökningen är att dess reliabilitet och validitet kan kritiseras med brister exempelvis inom upprepbarheten i resultaten. Fortsatt forskning inom området bör studera större populationer av investerare för att se om samma mönster upprepar sig inom andra grupperingar samt att attributen hos affärsmodellerna kan delas upp mer för att undersöka om vissa attribut har större betydelse än andra när investerare väljer vilka start-ups de ska investera i.
Yegoryan, Narine. "Behavioral Biases in Marketing: Conducting Choice Experiments with Inattentive Consumers and Modeling their Decisions." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/21673.
Повний текст джерелаA central task of marketing is understanding consumer preferences and uncovering consumer heterogeneity. A range of critical decisions, e.g., new product development, market segmentation and targeting, or pricing, rest upon accurate estimation of consumer preferences. Marketing literature has mainly focused on the development of models and estimation procedures that allow uncovering heterogeneity in consumer preference. However, consumers differ not only in their tastes but also in the way they make purchase decisions and the information they use. The overall objective of this dissertation is to enhance our understanding of consumers' inattention to attributes when making choices. It aims to 1) examine the prevalence of such inattention across numerous contexts and settings, 2) investigate and extend the approaches that explicitly accommodate such behavior, 3) understand potential biases that may arise, and 4) demonstrate managerial implications when such behavior is neglected. The findings from a broad set of applications suggest that consumers ignore a substantial amount of available attribute information across various contexts (e.g., product categories) and settings (e.g., of high or low complexity). Second, we establish that choice models explicitly accounting for such behavior and, additionally, leveraging supplementary data such as eye tracking, result in better in- and out-of-sample fit. Third, neglecting such behavior leads to significant biases, the direction and the magnitude of which depend on the type of the attribute (i.e., whether a particular direction of preferences can be expected) and the share of consumers ignoring this attribute. As a result, managers may make suboptimal pricing and targeting decisions.
Yeung, Raymond Y. T. "Towards a family model of the labour market behaviour of immigrants, estimates of a discrete choice dynamic programming model." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0005/NQ42996.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаFerhatosmanoglu, Nilgun. "Optimal design of experiments for emerging biological and computational applications." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1179177867.
Повний текст джерелаSagebiel, Julian [Verfasser], Markus [Gutachter] Hanisch, Jos [Gutachter] Bijman, and Reiner [Gutachter] Doluschitz. "Valuing improvements in electricity supply using discrete choice experiments : preferences of private households in India and Germany / Julian Sagebiel ; Gutachter: Markus Hanisch, Jos Bijman, Reiner Doluschitz." Berlin : Lebenswissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1130698556/34.
Повний текст джерелаMenezes, Gabrielito Rauter. "Ensaios sobre economia do empreendorismo." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/132965.
Повний текст джерелаThis thesis consists of three essays on the Economics Entrepreneurship. The first deals with the determinants of entrepreneurship in Brazil from occupational choice models, using the data from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) of 2012. The empirical strategy adopted has employed discrete choice models in the estimation of occupational choice. The results showed that there are significant effects on the variables: years of initial studies, gender, marital status as well as pensioners and retired. To complete the analysis were estimated earnings equations, which explains the choice by the entrepreneurial occupation in terms of earnings for paid employment. The second test aims to present empirical evidence for the relationship between entrepreneurship and corruption in the Brazilian states, using a theoretical and empirical approach. This article uses an objective indicator of state government corruption based on the Register of Irregular accounts of the Court of Audit (CADIRREG) as a proxy for regional corruption and the opening of new companies per capita as a measure for regional entrepreneurial activity. They used the method of static panel data, dynamic and GMM-SYS method to correct the endogeneity problem. The results proved to be consistent with the theoretical hypothesis "grease in the wheels" in which corruption positively influence the entrepreneurial activity in developing countries with high bureaucracy. Finally, the third test evaluates the impacts of entrepreneurship via innovation from the Global Trade Analysis Project - GTAP, a model of computable general equilibrium (CGE), highlighting the impacts on economic growth and overall well-being economy. The results were consistent with the literatureof Entrepreneurship Economics, showing that increased entrepreneurship leads to a rise in economic growth and well-being.
Rasch, Carsten Verfasser], and Thorsten [Akademischer Betreuer] [Teichert. "Psychophysiological processes as a window into consumer decision-making : the role of visual attention, arousal, and valence for preference constructionin discrete choice experiments / Carsten Rasch. Betreuer: Thorsten Teichert." Hamburg : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg, 2014. http://d-nb.info/1061128113/34.
Повний текст джерелаSkira, Meghan. "Essays on Informal Care, Labor Supply and Wages." Thesis, Boston College, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/2652.
Повний текст джерелаThesis advisor: Peter Gottschalk
This dissertation examines how caregiving for an elderly parent affects an adult child's labor supply and wages. In the first chapter (co-authored with Courtney H. Van Houtven and Norma B. Coe) we identify the relationship between informal care and labor force participation in the United States, both on the intensive and extensive margins, and examine wage effects. We control for time-invariant individual heterogeneity; rule out or control for endogeneity; examine effects for men and women separately; and analyze heterogeneous effects by task and intensity. We find modest decreases--1.4-2.4 percentage points--in the likelihood of working for caregivers providing personal care. Male and female chore caregivers, meanwhile, are more likely to retire. For female care providers who remain working, we find evidence that they decrease work by 3-10 hours per week and face a 2.3-2.6 percent wage penalty. We find little effect of caregiving on working men's hours or wages except for a wage premium for male intensive caregivers. In the second chapter I formulate and estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of elder parent care and work to analyze how caregiving affects a woman's current and future labor force participation and wages. Intertemporal tradeoffs, such as decreased future earning capacity due to a current reduction in labor market work, are central to the decision to provide care. The existing literature, however, overlooks such long-term considerations. I depart from the previous literature by modeling caregiving and work decisions in an explicitly intertemporal framework. The model incorporates dynamic elements such as the health of the elderly parent, human capital accumulation and job offer availability. I estimate the model on a sample of women from the Health and Retirement Study by efficient method of moments. The estimates indicate that intertemporal tradeoffs matter considerably. In particular, women face low probabilities of returning to work or increasing work hours after a caregiving spell. Using the estimates, I simulate several government sponsored elder care policy experiments: a longer unpaid leave than currently available under the Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993; a paid work leave; and a caregiver allowance. The leaves encourage more work among intensive care providers since they guarantee a woman can return to her job, while the caregiver allowance discourages work. A comparison of the welfare gains generated by the policies shows that half the value of the paid leave can be achieved with the unpaid leave, and the caregiver allowance generates gains comparable to the unpaid leave
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2012
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
Singh, Karandeep. "Statistical modelling and analysis of traffic : a dynamic approach." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2012. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/9421.
Повний текст джерелаOehlmann, Malte [Verfasser], Volkmar [Akademischer Betreuer] Hartje, Volkmar [Gutachter] Hartje, and Katrin [Gutachter] Rehdanz. "Response anomalies in discrete choice experiments for environmental valuation : the influence of task complexity, attributes thresholds and survey consequentiality / Malte Oehlmann ; Gutachter: Volkmar Hartje, Katrin Rehdanz ; Betreuer: Volkmar Hartje." Berlin : Technische Universität Berlin, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1188697382/34.
Повний текст джерелаDoshi, Amar. "Economic analyses of microalgae biofuels and policy implications in Australia." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2017. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/103532/1/Amar_Doshi_Thesis.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаKularatne, Thamarasi. "Economics of optimal management of tourism resources : a demand and supply analysis." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2017. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/104115/1/Telwadana%20Mudiyanselage%20Thamarasi_Kularatne_Thesis.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаZhang, Yonghui. "Essays on Taxation, Marriage, and Labor Supply." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/76670.
Повний текст джерелаPh. D.
Liu, Xiaodong. "Econometrics on interactions-based models methods and applications /." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1180283230.
Повний текст джерелаSanchis, Cano Ángel. "Economic analysis of wireless sensor-based services in the framework of the Internet of Things. A game-theoretical approach." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/102642.
Повний текст джерелаThe communications world is moving from a standalone devices scenario to a all-connected scenario known as Internet of Things (IoT), where billions of devices will be connected to the Internet through mobile and fixed networks. In this context, there are several challenges to face, from the development of new standards to the study of the economical viability of the different future scenarios. In this dissertation we have focused on the study of the economic viability of different scenarios using concepts of microeconomics, game theory, non-linear optimization, network economics and wireless networks. The dissertation analyzes the transition from a Human Type Communications (HTC) to a Machine Type Communications (MTC) centered network from an economic point of view. The first scenario is designed to focus on the first stages of the transition, where HTC and MTC traffic are served on a common network infrastructure. The second scenario analyzes the provision of connectivity service to MTC users using a dedicated network infrastructure, while the third stage is centered in the analysis of the provision of services based on the MTC data over the infrastructure studied in the previous scenario. Thanks to the analysis of all the scenarios we have observed that the transition from HTC users-centered networks to MTC networks is possible and that the provision of services in such scenarios is viable. In addition, we have observed that the behavior of the users is essential in order to determine the viability of a business model, and therefore, it is needed to study their behavior and preferences in depth in future studios. Specifically, the most relevant factors are the sensitivity of the users to the delay and to the amount of data gathered by the sensors. We also have observed that the differentiation of the traffic in categories improves the usage of the networks and allows to create new services thanks to the data that otherwise would not be used, improving the monetization of the infrastructure and the data. In addition, we have shown that the capacity provision is a valid mechanism for providers' profit optimization, as an alternative to the pricing mechanisms. Finally, it has been demonstrated that it is possible to create dedicated roles to offer IoT services in the telecommunications market, specifically, the IoT-SPs, which provide wireless-sensor-based services to the final users using a third party infrastructure. Summarizing, this dissertation tries to demonstrate the economic viability of the future IoT networks business models as well as the emergence of new business opportunities and roles in order to justify economically the development and implementation of the new technologies required to offer massive wireless access to machine devices.
El món de les telecomunicacions està canviant d'un escenari on únicament les persones estaven connectades a un model on pràcticament tots els dispositius i sensors es troben connectats, també conegut com a Internet de les Coses (IoT) , on milers de milions de dispositius es connectaran a Internet a través de connexions mòbils i xarxes fixes. En aquest context, hi ha molts reptes que superar, des del desenrotllament de nous estàndards de comunicació a l'estudi de la viabilitat econòmica dels possibles escenaris futurs. En aquesta tesi ens hem centrat en l'estudi de la viabilitat econòmica de diferents escenaris per mitjà de l'ús de conceptes de microeconomia, teoria de jocs, optimització no lineal, economia de xarxes i xarxes inalàmbriques. La tesi analitza la transició des de xarxes centrades en el servici de tràfic HTC a xarxes centrades en tràfic MTC des d'un punt de vista econòmic. El primer escenari ha sigut dissenyat per a centrar-se en les primeres etapes de la transició, en la que ambdós tipus de tràfic són servits davall la mateixa infraestructura de xarxa. En el segon escenari analitzem la següent etapa, en la que el servici als usuaris MTC es realitza per mitjà d'una infraestructura dedicada. Finalment, el tercer escenari analitza la provisió de servicis basats en MTC a usuaris finals, per mitjà de la infraestructura analitzada en l'escenari anterior. Als paràgrafs següents es descriu amb més detall cada escenari. Gràcies a l'anàlisi de tots els escenaris, hem observat que la transició de xarxes centrades en usuaris HTC a xarxes MTC és possible i que la provisió de servicis en tals escenaris és viable. A més a més, hem observat que el comportament dels usuaris és essencial per a determinar la viabilitat dels diferents models de negoci, i per tant, és necessari estudiar el comportament i les preferències dels usuaris en profunditat en estudis futurs. Específicament, els factors més rellevants són la sensibilitat dels usuaris al retard en les dades recopilats pels sensors i la quantitat dels mateixos. També hem observat que la diferenciació del tràfic en categories millora l'ús de les xarxes i permet crear nous servicis emprant dades que, d'una altra manera, no s'aprofitarien, la qual cosa ens permet millorar la monetització de la infraestructura. També hem demostrat que la provisió de capacitat és un mecanisme vàlid, alternatiu a la fixació de preus, per a l'optimització dels beneficis dels proveïdors de servici. Finalment, s'ha demostrat que és possible crear rols específics per a oferir servicis IoT en el mercat de les telecomunicacions, específicament, els IoT-SPs, que proporcionen servicis basats en sensors inalàmbrics utilitzant infraestructures d'accés de tercers i les seues pròpies xarxes de sensors. En resum, en aquesta tesi hem intentat demostrar la viabilitat econòmica de models de negoci basats en xarxes futures IoT, així com l'aparició de noves oportunitats i rols de negoci, la qual cosa ens permet justificar econòmicament el desenrotllament i la implementació de les tecnologies necessàries per a oferir servicis d'accés inalàmbric massiu a dispositius MTC.
Sanchis Cano, Á. (2018). Economic analysis of wireless sensor-based services in the framework of the Internet of Things. A game-theoretical approach [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/102642
TESIS
(8068292), Courtney L. Bir. "EVALUATING DATA QUALITY IN DISCRETE CHOICE EXPERIMENTS." Thesis, 2019.
Знайти повний текст джерелаGonçalves, Tânia Cristina do Cima. "Consumer preferences for wine: an application of discrete choice experiments." Doctoral thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/1822/75127.
Повний текст джерелаThe wine industry faces an increasingly competitive environment, and the emergence of new producers and consumers reinforced the global dimension of this market. Despite its traditional nature, this industry is rapidly changing, while wine becomes a particular product linking tradition with innovation. Producers are increasingly searching for new opportunities to differentiate their products, hence understanding consumer preferences is crucial. The present dissertation represents an insightful contribution to understand wine choice and the decisionmaking process, in the international market. Moreover, it addresses important methodological issues related to discrete choice experiments and the underlying assumptions that individuals are rational utility maximizers and they choose their preferred option taking into account all available information. However, increasing evidence shows that people use simplifying heuristics to make choices, supporting the alternative of bounded rational behavior which is likely to increase when the good is complex and unfamiliar. The four articles that constitute this dissertation cover some of the challenges that researchers face when valuing a complex good, such as the one under study - wine, by identifying two critical properties of discrete choice models: (i) consumers heterogeneity, both in the scale and in preference, and (ii) the use of heuristics, namely attribute non-attendance, in two different ways, using stated and inferred approaches. On one hand, results show the importance of accounting for both sources of heterogeneity, while the use of latent class model allows the identification of distinct market segments in terms of preference heterogeneity. On the other hand, it provides evidence of attribute non-attendance both in the stated and inferred approaches, showing biased willingness to pay measures when attribute non-attendance is neglected. However, there is little concordance between the rates of non-attendance, which suggests that respondents stated a higher level of attendance than inferred by the model. Finally, we develop an inferred method in a stepwise approach finding all possible combination patterns between attendance and nonattendance. Results show the potential benefits of using this approach combined with other patterns assuming extreme behavior. The improvements considered in each study lead to a better understanding of consumers’ preferences and the choice process in general, showing the adaptability of choice models and their potential as tools for modelling preferences and conduct welfare analysis.
A indústria do vinho enfrenta um ambiente cada vez mais competitivo, pelo que a emergência de novos produtores e consumidores veio reforçar a dimensão global deste mercado. Apesar da sua natureza tradicional, esta indústria tem vindo a mudar rapidamente, enquanto o vinho se torna um produto singular unindo a tradição à inovação. Cada vez mais os produtores procuram novas oportunidades para diferenciar os seus produtos sendo, por isso, crucial conhecer as preferências do consumidor. A presente tese contribui para a compreensão do processo de decisão e escolha de vinho, no âmbito internacional. Metodologicamente, aborda importantes questões associadas à aplicação da técnica de escolhas discretas e, sobretudo, ao pressuposto de que os indivíduos escolhem a sua alternativa preferida tendo em conta toda a informação disponível. Contudo, evidências crescentes mostram que as pessoas usam estratégias simplificadoras quando escolhem, o que indicia um comportamento racional limitado, suscetível de aumentar quando o bem é complexo e desconhecido. Os quatro artigos que constituem esta tese abordam alguns dos desafios quando se estuda um bem complexo, como o vinho, identificando duas propriedades críticas da técnica de escolhas discretas: (i) tratar a heterogeneidade do consumidor, na consistência (escala) e nas preferências e (ii) incluir o uso de heurísticas, nomeadamente o ignorar certos atributos, através das abordagens declarada e inferida. Por um lado, os resultados mostram a importância de considerar ambas as fontes de heterogeneidade, enquanto o modelo de classes latentes permite definir segmentos de consumidores de vinho distintos em termos de diferenças preferenciais. Por outro lado, ambas as abordagens, declarada e inferida, evidenciam a omissão de atributos na escolha, gerando medidas de disposição a pagar enviesadas. No entanto, a concordância entre a intensidade deste comportamento é baixa, o que sugere que os respondentes declararam um nível de atenção aos atributos maior do que o inferido pelo modelo. Por fim, desenvolvemos a técnica inferida que identifica, de forma gradual, todas as combinações possíveis entre ignorar/atender atributos. Os resultados mostram os potenciais benefícios desta metodologia combinada com outros padrões de modelos que assumem comportamentos extremos. Os avanços considerados em cada estudo permitem uma melhor compreensão das preferências dos consumidores e do processo de escolha em geral, revelando a capacidade de adaptação dos modelos de escolha e o seu potencial como ferramentas de modelização de preferências e análise de bem-estar.
I would like to thank the entities that supported this work financially, namely the project INNOVINE & WINE – Innovation Platform of Vine & Wine, Portugal (NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000038) and the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology under the projects UID/SOC/04011/2019 and UID/ECO/03182/2019.
Mai, Anh Tien. "Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models." Thèse, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/15871.
Повний текст джерелаLes gens consacrent une importante part de leur existence à prendre diverses décisions, pouvant affecter leur demande en transport, par exemple les choix de lieux d'habitation et de travail, les modes de transport, les heures de départ, le nombre et type de voitures dans le ménage, les itinéraires ... Les choix liés au transport sont généralement fonction du temps et caractérisés par un grand nombre de solutions alternatives qui peuvent être spatialement corrélées. Cette thèse traite de modèles pouvant être utilisés pour analyser et prédire les choix discrets dans les applications liées aux réseaux de grandes tailles. Les modèles et méthodes proposées sont particulièrement pertinents pour les applications en transport, sans toutefois s'y limiter. Nous modélisons les décisions comme des séquences de choix, dans le cadre des choix discrets dynamiques, aussi connus comme processus de décision de Markov paramétriques. Ces modèles sont réputés difficiles à estimer et à appliquer en prédiction, puisque le calcul des probabilités de choix requiert la résolution de problèmes de programmation dynamique. Nous montrons dans cette thèse qu'il est possible d'exploiter la structure du réseau et la flexibilité de la programmation dynamique afin de rendre l'approche de modélisation dynamique en choix discrets non seulement utile pour représenter les choix dépendant du temps, mais également pour modéliser plus facilement des choix statiques au sein d'ensembles de choix de très grande taille. La thèse se compose de sept articles, présentant divers modèles et méthodes d'estimation, leur application ainsi que des expériences numériques sur des modèles de choix discrets de grande taille. Nous regroupons les contributions en trois principales thématiques: modélisation du choix de route, estimation de modèles en valeur extrême multivariée (MEV) de grande taille et algorithmes d'optimisation non-linéaire. Cinq articles sont associés à la modélisation de choix de route. Nous proposons différents modèles de choix discrets dynamiques permettant aux utilités des chemins d'être corrélées, sur base de formulations MEV et logit mixte. Les modèles résultants devenant coûteux à estimer, nous présentons de nouvelles approches permettant de diminuer les efforts de calcul. Nous proposons par exemple une méthode de décomposition qui non seulement ouvre la possibilité d'estimer efficacement des modèles logit mixte, mais également d'accélérer l'estimation de modèles simples comme les modèles logit multinomiaux, ce qui a également des implications en simulation de trafic. De plus, nous comparons les règles de décision basées sur le principe de maximisation d'utilité de celles sur la minimisation du regret pour ce type de modèles. Nous proposons finalement un test statistique sur les erreurs de spécification pour les modèles de choix de route basés sur le logit multinomial. Le second thème porte sur l'estimation de modèles de choix discrets statiques avec de grands ensembles de choix. Nous établissons que certains types de modèles MEV peuvent être reformulés comme des modèles de choix discrets dynamiques, construits sur des réseaux de structure de corrélation. Ces modèles peuvent alors être estimées rapidement en utilisant des techniques de programmation dynamique en combinaison avec un algorithme efficace d'optimisation non-linéaire. La troisième et dernière thématique concerne les algorithmes d'optimisation non-linéaires dans le cadre de l'estimation de modèles complexes de choix discrets par maximum de vraisemblance. Nous examinons et adaptons des méthodes quasi-Newton structurées qui peuvent être facilement intégrées dans des algorithmes d'optimisation usuels (recherche linéaire et région de confiance) afin d'accélérer le processus d'estimation. Les modèles de choix discrets dynamiques et les méthodes d'optimisation proposés peuvent être employés dans diverses applications de choix discrets. Dans le domaine des sciences de données, des modèles qui peuvent traiter de grands ensembles de choix et des ensembles de choix séquentiels sont importants. Nos recherches peuvent dès lors être d'intérêt dans diverses applications d'analyse de la demande (analyse prédictive) ou peuvent être intégrées à des modèles d'optimisation (analyse prescriptive). De plus, nos études mettent en évidence le potentiel des techniques de programmation dynamique dans ce contexte, y compris pour des modèles statiques, ouvrant la voie à de multiples directions de recherche future.
Bishop, Kelly Catherine. "Location Choice and the Value of Spatially Delineated Amenities." Diss., 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10161/656.
Повний текст джерелаIn the first chapter of this dissertation, I outline a hedonic equilibrium model that explicitly controls for moving costs and forward-looking behavior. Hedonic equilibrium models allow researchers to recover willingness to pay for spatially delineated amenities by using the notion that individuals "vote with their feet." However, the hedonic literature and, more recently, the estimable Tiebout sorting model literature, has largely ignored both the costs associated with migration (financial and psychological), as well as the forward-looking behavior that individuals exercise in making location decisions. Each of these omissions could lead to biased estimates of willingness to pay. Building upon dynamic migration models from the labor literature, I estimate a fully dynamic model of individual migration at the national level. By employing a two-step estimation routine, I avoid the computational burden associated with the full recursive solution and can then include a richly-specified, realistic state space. With this model, I am able to perform non-market valuation exercises and learn about the spatial determinants of labor market outcomes in a dynamic setting. Including dynamics has a significant positive impact on the estimates of willingness to pay for air quality. In addition, I find that location-specific amenity values can explain important trends in observed migration patterns in the United States.
The second chapter of this dissertation describes a model which estimates willingness to pay for air quality using property value hedonics techniques. Since Rosen's seminal 1974 paper, property value hedonics has become commonplace in the non-market valuation of environmental amenities, despite a number of well-known methodological problems. In particular, recovery of the marginal willingness to pay function suffers from important endogeneity biases that are difficult to correct with instrumental variables procedures [Epple (1987)]. Bajari and Benkard (2005) propose a "preference inversion" procedure for recovering heterogeneous measures of marginal willingness to pay that avoids these problems. However, using cross-sectional data, their approach imposes unrealistic constraints on the elasticity of marginal willingness to pay. Following Bajari and Benkard's suggestion, I show how data describing repeat purchase decisions by individual home buyers can be used to relax these constraints. Using data on ozone pollution in the Bay Area of California, I find that endogeneity bias and flexibility in the shape of the marginal willingness to pay function are both important.
Finally, in the third chapter of this dissertation, I combine the insights of the Bajari-Benkard inversion approach employed in second chapter with more standard estimation techniques (i.e., Rosen (1974)) to arrive at a new hedonic methodology that allows for flexible and heterogeneous preferences while avoiding the endogeneity problems that plague the traditional Rosen two-stage model. Implementing this estimator using the Bay Area ozone data, I again find evidence of considerable heterogeneity and of endogeneity bias. In particular, I find that a one unit deterioration in air quality (measured in days in which ozone levels exceed the state standards) raises marginal willingness to pay by $145.18 per year. The canonical two-stage Rosen model finds, counter-intuitively, that this same change would reduce marginal willingness to pay by $94.24.
Dissertation
Ransom, Tyler. "Dynamic Models of Human Capital Accumulation." Diss., 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10161/9929.
Повний текст джерелаThis dissertation consists of three separate essays that use dynamic models to better understand the human capital accumulation process. First, I analyze the role of migration in human capital accumulation and how migration varies over the business cycle. An interesting trend in the data is that, over the period of the Great Recession, overall migration rates in the US remained close to their respective long-term trends. However, migration evolved differently by employment status: unemployed workers were more likely to migrate during the recession and employed workers less likely. To isolate mechanisms explaining this divergence, I estimate a dynamic, non-stationary search model of migration using a national longitudinal survey from 2004-2013. I focus on the role of employment frictions on migration decisions in addition to other explanations in the literature. My results show that a divergence in job offer and job destruction rates caused differing migration incentives by employment status. I also find that migration rates were muted because of the national scope of the Great Recession. Model simulations show that spatial unemployment insurance in the form of a moving subsidy can help workers move to more favorable markets.
In the second essay, my coauthors and I explore the role of information frictions in the acquisition of human capital. Specifically, we investigate the determinants of college attrition in a setting where individuals have imperfect information about their schooling ability and labor market productivity. We estimate a dynamic structural model of schooling and work decisions, where high school graduates choose a bundle of education and work combinations. We take into account the heterogeneity in schooling investments by distinguishing between two- and four-year colleges and graduate school, as well as science and non-science majors for four-year colleges. Individuals may also choose whether to work full-time, part-time, or not at all. A key feature of our approach is to account for correlated learning through college grades and wages, thus implying that individuals may leave or re-enter college as a result of the arrival of new information on their ability and/or productivity. We use our results to quantify the importance of informational frictions in explaining the observed school-to-work transitions and to examine sorting patterns.
In the third essay, my coauthors and I investigate the evolution over the last two decades in the wage returns to schooling and early work experience.
Using data from the 1979 and 1997 panels of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we isolate changes in skill prices from changes in composition by estimating a dynamic model of schooling and work decisions. Importantly, this allows us to account for the endogenous nature of the changes in educational and accumulated work experience over this time period. We find an increase over this period in the returns to working in high school, but a decrease in the returns to working while in college. We also find an increase in the incidence of working in college, but that any detrimental impact of in-college work experience is offset by changes in other observable characteristics. Overall, our decomposition of the evolution in skill premia suggests that both price and composition effects play an important role. The role of unobserved ability is also important.
Dissertation
Beauchamp, Andrew W. "Family Formation and Equilibrium Influences." Diss., 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10161/1093.
Повний текст джерелаThis dissertation considers incentives arising from equilibrium influences that affect the sequence of decisions that lead to family formation. The first chapter examines how state regulations directly aimed at abortion providers affect the market for abortion in the United States. Estimates from a dynamic model of competition among abortion providers show that regulations' main impact is on the fixed costs of entry for providers. Simulations indicate that the removal of regulations would promote entry and competition among abortion providers, and because abortions are found to be price sensitive, this would lead to increases in the number of abortions observed. The second chapter tests if an important negative externality of abortion access exists, namely whether abortion access makes prospective fathers more likely to leave pregnant women. Designing a number of empirical tests, I confirm that in some areas where abortion is more accessible women who give birth are more likely to be single mothers, rather than sharing parental responsibility with the biological father. The final chapter, which is joint work with Peter Arcidiacono and Marjorie McElroy, examines how gender ratios influence bargaining power in romantic relationships between men and women. Gender ratios, by influencing the prospects of matching, allow us to estimate preferences for various match characteristics and activities. We find men prefer sexual relationships more than women at high school ages, and that men and women trade off their preferred partner for an increased chance of matching.
Dissertation
Murphy, Alvin Denis. "The Microfoundations of Housing Market Dynamics." Diss., 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10161/649.
Повний текст джерелаThe goal of this dissertation is to provide a coherent and computationally feasible basis for the analysis of the dynamics of both housing supply and demand from a microeconomics perspective. The dissertation includes two papers which incorporate unique micro data with new methodological approaches to examine housing market dynamics. The first paper models the development decisions of land owners as a dynamic discrete choice problem to recover the primitives of housing supply. The second paper develops a new methodology for dynamically estimating the demand for durable goods, such as housing, when the choice set is large.
In the first paper, using the new data set discussed above, I develop and estimate the first dynamic microeconometric model of supply. Parcel owners maximize the discounted sum of expected per-period profits by choosing the optimal time and nature of construction. In addition to current profits, the owners of land also take into account their expectations about future returns to development, balancing expected future prices against expected future costs. This forward looking behavior is crucial in explaining observed aggregate patterns of construction. Finally, the outcomes generated by the parcel owners' profit maximizing behavior, in addition to observable sales prices, allow me to identify the parameters of the per-period profit function at a fine level of geography.
By modeling the optimal behavior of land owners directly, I can capture important aspects of profits that explain both market volatility and geographic differences in construction rates. In particular, the model captures both the role of expectations and of more abstract costs (such as regulation) in determining the timing and volatility of supply in way that would not be possible using aggregate data. The model returns estimates of the various components of profits: prices, variable costs, and the fixed costs of building, which incorporate both physical and regulatory costs.
Estimates of the model suggest that changes in the value of the right-to-build are the primary cause of house price appreciation, that the demographic characteristics of existing residents are determinants of the cost environment, and that physical and regulatory costs are pro-cyclical. Finally, using estimates of the profit function, I explain the role of dynamics in determining the timing of supply by distinguishing the effects of expected future cost changes from the effects of expected future price changes. A counterfactual simulation suggest that pro-cyclical costs, combined with forward looking behavior, significantly dampen construction volatility. These results sheds light on one of the empirical puzzles of the housing market - what determines the volatility of housing construction?
In the second paper, I outline a tractable model of neighborhood choice in a dynamic setting along with a computationally straightforward estimation approach. The approach allows the observed and unobserved features of each neighborhood to evolve in a completely flexible way and uses information on neighborhood choice and the timing of moves to recover semi-parametrically: (i) preferences for housing and neighborhood attributes, (ii) preferences for the performance of the house as a financial asset, and (iii) moving costs. In order to accommodate a number of important features of housing market, this approach extends methods developed in the recent literature on the dynamic demand for durable goods in a number of key ways. The model and estimation approach are applicable to the study of a wide set of dynamic phenomena in housing markets and cities. These include, for example, the analysis of the microdynamics of residential segregation and gentrification within metropolitan areas. More generally, the model and estimation approach can be easily extended to study the dynamics of housing and labor markets in a system of cities.
Dissertation
Harth, Michael [Verfasser]. "Multikriterielle Bewertungsverfahren als Beitrag zur Entscheidungsfindung in der Landnutzungsplanung : unter besonderer Berüucksichtigung der adaptiven Conjoint-Analyse und der discrete choice experiments / vorgelegt von Michael Harth." 2006. http://d-nb.info/985266333/34.
Повний текст джерелаIshihara, Masakazu. "Dynamic Demand for New and Used Durable Goods without Physical Depreciation." Thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/29757.
Повний текст джерелаSchaak, Henning. "Agricultural and societal perspectives on pasture-based livestock production systems in Germany." Doctoral thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/21.11130/00-1735-0000-0005-12C5-8.
Повний текст джерелаBlevins, Jason Ryan. "Essays in Industrial Organization and Econometrics." Diss., 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10161/2365.
Повний текст джерелаThis dissertation consists of three chapters relating to
identification and inference in dynamic microeconometric models
including dynamic discrete games with many players, dynamic games with
discrete and continuous choices, and semiparametric binary choice and
duration panel data models.
The first chapter provides a framework for estimating large-scale
dynamic discrete choice models (both single- and multi-agent models)
in continuous time. The advantage of working in continuous time is
that state changes occur sequentially, rather than simultaneously,
avoiding a substantial curse of dimensionality that arises in
multi-agent settings. Eliminating this computational bottleneck is
the key to providing a seamless link between estimating the model and
performing post-estimation counterfactuals. While recently developed
two-step estimation techniques have made it possible to estimate
large-scale problems, solving for equilibria remains computationally
challenging. In many cases, the models that applied researchers
estimate do not match the models that are then used to perform
counterfactuals. By modeling decisions in continuous time, we are able
to take advantage of the recent advances in estimation while
preserving a tight link between estimation and policy experiments. We
also consider estimation in situations with imperfectly sampled data,
such as when we do not observe the decision not to move, or when data
is aggregated over time, such as when only discrete-time data are
available at regularly spaced intervals. We illustrate the power of
our framework using several large-scale Monte Carlo experiments.
The second chapter considers semiparametric panel data binary choice
and duration models with fixed effects. Such models are point
identified when at least one regressor has full support on the real
line. It is common in practice, however, to have only discrete or
continuous, but possibly bounded, regressors. We focus on
identification, estimation, and inference for the identified set in
such cases, when the parameters of interest may only be partially
identified. We develop a set of general results for
criterion-function-based estimation and inference in partially
identified models which can be applied to both regular and irregular
models. We apply our general results first to a fixed effects binary
choice panel data model where we obtain a sharp characterization of
the identified set and propose a consistent set estimator,
establishing its rate of convergence under different conditions.
Rates arbitrarily close to
possible when a continuous, but possibly bounded, regressor is
present. When all regressors are discrete the estimates converge
arbitrarily fast to the identified set. We also propose a
subsampling-based procedure for constructing confidence regions in the
models we consider. Finally, we carry out a series of Monte Carlo
experiments to illustrate and evaluate the proposed procedures. We
also consider extensions to other fixed effects panel data models such
as binary choice models with lagged dependent variables and duration
models.
The third chapter considers nonparametric identification of dynamic
games of incomplete information in which players make both discrete
and continuous choices. Such models are commonly used in applied work
in industrial organization where, for example, firms make discrete
entry and exit decisions followed by continuous investment decisions.
We first review existing identification results for single agent
dynamic discrete choice models before turning to single-agent models
with an additional continuous choice variable and finally to
multi-agent models with both discrete and continuous choices. We
provide conditions for nonparametric identification of the utility
function in both cases.
Dissertation
Wang, Yang. "Essays on Health Economics." Diss., 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10161/1069.
Повний текст джерелаIn this dissertation, I discuss two important factors in individuals' decision-making processes: subjective expectation bias and time-inconsistent preferences. In Chapter I, I look at how individuals' own subjective expectations about certain future events are different from what actually happens in the future, even after controlling for individuals' private information. This difference, which is defined as the expectation bias in this paper, is found to have important influence on individuals' choices. Specifically, I look into the relationship between US elderly's subjective longevity expectation biases and their smoking choices. I find that US elderly tend to over-emphasize the importance of their genetic makeup but underestimate the influence of their health-related choices, such as smoking, on their longevity. This finding can partially explain why even though US elderly are found to be more concerned with their health and more forward-looking than we would have concluded using a model which does not allow for subjective expectation bias, we still observe many smokers. The policy simulation further confirms that if certain public policies can be designed to correct individuals' expectation biases about the effects of their genes and health-related choices on their longevity, then the average smoking rate for the age group analyzed in this paper will go down by about 4%.
In Chapter II, my co-author, Hanming Fang, and I look at one possible explanation to the under-utilization of preventive health care in the United States: procrastination. Procrastination, the phenomenon that individuals postpone certain decisions which incur instantaneous costs but bring long-term benefits, is captured in economics by hyperbolic discount factors and the corresponding time-inconsistent preferences. This chapter extends the semi-parametric identification and estimation method for dynamic discrete choice models using Hotz and Miller's (1993) conditional choice probability approach to the setting where individuals may have hyperbolic discounting time preferences and may be naive about their time inconsistency. We implement the proposed estimation method to US adult women's decisions of undertaking mammography tests to evaluate the importance of present bias and naivety in the under-utilization of mammography, controlling for other potentially important explanatory factors such as age, race, household income, and marital status. Preliminary results show evidence for both present bias and naivety in adult women's decisions of undertaking mammography tests. Using the parameters estimated, we further conduct some policy simulations to quantify the effects of the present bias and naivety on the utilization of preventive health care in the US.
Dissertation