Статті в журналах: "Dynamic assessment of financial risks"

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M. Badubi, Reuben. "Dynamic Assessment of Mergers and Acquisitions Risks in Botswana." JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RESEARCH AND MARKETING 2, no. 4 (2017): 30–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.18775/jibrm.1849-8558.2015.24.3005.

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The aim of the paper is to address the issue of local enterprises that fall prey to international companies in terms of mergers as they fail to address risks that collapse their institutions.In this research paper, the study is based on literature. The researcher looked at similar cases of mergers and acquisitions in Botswana and overseas in diverse sectors of the economy. The core assessment of risk identification which is portfolio risk helped in identifying risks that affect consolidations, mergers, and acquisitions in Botswana. The researcher intends to help the companies taking over others to be able to manage risks, contain their risk appetite in order to avoid financial losses as well as legal litigations from either parties that will be affected. Local enterprises fail because of lack of experience and capacity to handle risks. It is also coupled with failure to measure their risk appetite as well as test the role of leadership in managing risks. The methodology used is direct interview and consultations for the information.

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Vasiliev, Alexander, Nataliia Vasilieva, and Natalia Tupko. "Development of a systems approach to assessment of investment project risks: risks of unacceptably low project profitability." Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies 1, no. 4 (115) (February 25, 2022): 77–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2022.252997.

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A new systems approach to quantitative estimation of financial risks of investment projects was proposed: an integral risk of the project as a whole for all its parameters at once and the risks for each of its parameters separately. At the same time, the very concept of the project risk has been generalized: instead of the conventional risk of unprofitability, a new, more general concept of the risk of unacceptably low project profitability has been introduced. Two levels of the project profitability were considered: a level acceptable to the investor and a realistically achievable level. Corresponding values of design parameters and indices of financial efficiency of the project were found for these levels. Based on the found values, relative margins of investment acceptability and risks of unacceptably low profitability of the project were calculated. A procedure of comprehensive assessment of the risk of unacceptable low profitability of the project for cases of high certainty and partial uncertainty has been developed. Explicit formulas for quantitative risk assessment of unacceptably low profitability of the project have been derived, ranges of values of all risks under consideration have been determined and appropriate recommendations have been given. Explicit formulas for calculating the values of project risks and dynamic points of project acceptability are convenient and useful for software implementation (for example, within the Monte Carlo method). For the Monte Carlo method and the method of scenarios, another alternative approach to assessing the integral risk of unacceptably low project profitability was proposed by the authors based on the direct calculation of unacceptable scenario values of any criterion of the project financial efficiency. A new index of financial efficiency of the project has also been introduced: a discounted period of acceptable return (discounted payback period of the project is its special case).

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ANTWI, KOFI TWUM, Beatrice Darko Obiri, Elizabeth Obeng, and Simon Abugre. "Assessment of Environmental Sources of Financial Risks on Commercial Banks in Ghana." International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486) 9, no. 3 (August 20, 2020): 86–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.20525/ijfbs.v9i3.827.

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This research examined bankers’ perceptions of environmental sources of financial risks and its impact on commercial banks in Ghana. Primary data was collected from a purposive sample of ninety-six (96) middle–level bank managers using structured questionnaires. Time series secondary data on banking performance (denoted as ROA and ROE) and stability (denoted as CAR and NPLR) and growth of five major industrial businesses (including agriculture, mining, construction, manufacturing, and trade) as the environmental sources of financial risks, for a period of 13 years (2006-2018) was further obtained for analysis. Data was analyzed using the sample t-test and the multivariate dynamic panel regression model. The results show that, in bank lending, mining was perceived to be the topmost source of indirect environmental risk (credit and reputational risks), while agriculture was perceived to be the leading source of direct environmental risk (business risk). We found that perceptions of environmental sources of financial risk by mangers of locally owned banks differed from that of foreign owned banks. Growth of mining, trade and manufacturing positively influenced banking performance while the growth of construction and agriculture negatively influence banking stability. The study thus provides supportive evidence that commercial banks require set standards that guide clients’ business towards environmental sustainability

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Melnychuk, Oleksandr. "Methodical approaches to the assessment of financial risks of the agricultural sector." Ekonomika APK 323, no. 9 (September 28, 2021): 102–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.202109102.

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The purpose of the article is to substantiate the methodological tools for identifying and assessing financial risks for the management of such on the example of the agricultural sector. Research methods. The methods used: the monographic method for reviewing scientific publications of researchers and analysis of regulatory framework for risk identification and assessment, systematic and comparative analysis for the formation of methodological approaches to financial risk assessment, empirical method and synthesis for analysis of food security indicators, indicators of state regulation of financial risks, graphical method to reflect the dynamics of individual studied indicators, abstract and logical for theoretical generalizations and conclusions. Research results. Methodical approaches to financial risk assessment are analyzed. The components of financial risk assessment methods, as a system of principles, practices and techniques of scientific research of risk identification and measurement, theoretical principles of using these tools in the study of security aspects of the national economy are specified. It is determined that financial risk applies to almost all areas of activity. It is a kind of assessment of decision-making in conditions of uncertainty in the field of financing, investment, asset management, and resource potential at different levels of government. For the macro level of financial risk assessment, the dynamics of the food security index as the main criterion of the consequences of financial security of the industry is analyzed; the state of the shadow economy as a determining factor in systemic financial risks; the level of budget support as a factor in the effectiveness of public finance policy and financial risk management. For the micro level, the classification of methods of financial risk assessment based on the ways of the financial condition of enterprises is clarified, and the relationship between them is argued. Express analysis of financial risks was performed based on financial reporting data according to analytical ratios on the example of PJSC Myronivsky Hliboproduct. Normative methods of determining financial risk following the coefficient analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis and the National Standard of Ukraine "Risk Management. Methods of general risk assessment " to justify the need for a unified system of methodological approaches to financial risk assessment. Scientific novelty. The necessity of forming a unified methodology for assessing the financial risks of the agricultural sector was proved, for which the financial resources of the industry for 2013-2020 were analyzed and it was found that they account for 9.4% of the resources of the economy. Methodological approaches to the assessment of financial risks by involving macro-levels of the agricultural sector in the field of food security have been expanded, as it serves as a guarantor of food security, and there is a need to constantly monitor . It is generalized that the content of the assessment of financial risks of agricultural enterprises is determined in accordance with the purpose and main tasks, which have a gradation at the hierarchy levels. The scheme of a technique of an estimation of financial risks of agrarian branch is constructed. Practical significance. The methodological support of financial risk assessment processes has been improved, which can serve as a basis for the formation of a single Methodology for the analysis of the financial condition and financial risks of agricultural enterprises. The stages of financial risk assessment for the agricultural sector according to the algorithm are proposed: detection - analysis - minimization, which can be useful for agricultural enterprises in carrying out a comprehensive financial analysis. Some conclusions of the study can be used in shaping the financial policy of the agricultural sector. Tabl.: 6. Figs.: 2. Refs.: 25.

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Smagin, R. S., and T. V. Lebedeva. "ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING FINANCIAL RISKS OF RETAIL TRADING NETWORKS." Intelligence. Innovations. Investment, no. 1 (2021): 54–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2021-1-54.

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The relevance of the problem under study is due to the fact that, despite the many works devoted to the theoretical and applied aspects of risk research, the specifics of the formation of financial risks in the activities of retail trade networks have not been sufficiently studied. In particular, there is no methodology and practical recommendations for quantitative risk assessment using statistical methods that allow to identify trends and patterns in the dynamics of risk indicators, to consider external and internal risk factors, the results of which should be used as a basis for developing measures to reduce the risk of retail trade. networks. The aim of the work is to improve the methodology for assessing financial risks based on methods of statistical, economic and financial analysis. The article presents the results of a quantitative assessment of financial risks according to the approach developed and tested on the data of the retail trade network “Magnit”. For a quantitative assessment of the financial risks of a retail trade network, the authors proposed a system of five profitability indicators. The analysis of trends and patterns in the dynamics of profitability indicators, as well as factors influencing them, was carried out using one-dimensional and multidimensional data sets. Forecasts of profitability indicators are not contradictory and indicate the presence of a risk of losses, therefore, a detailed assessment of financial risks was carried out. It was revealed that the indicators of profitability of the retail trade network “Magnit” in the analyzed period had a statistically significant relationship with the indices of the physical volume of retail trade and consumer prices, as well as the number of economic entities in retail trade. The assessment of the financial condition of the organization by indicators of financial stability and a comprehensive assessment by the five-factor model of E. Altman are given. The scientific novelty of the work consists in improving the methodology for assessing financial risks based on statistical, economic and financial methods of analysis, as well as developing proposals for reducing financial risks for network trading organizations. The proposed methodology and research results are of interest to decision makers in network trade organizations, regulatory bodies at the regional and federal levels. Prospects for further research on the issues of assessing and predicting financial risks of retail chains consist in a more detailed study of external factors, in particular, legal restrictions, changes in the level and structure of consumer demand due to the pandemic that began in 2020.

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Lakhno, V. A., V. P. Malyukov, R. K. Uskenbayeva, T. S. Kartbayev, K. O. Togzhanova, and Dietmar Bayer. "Assessment of the risks of losing investments aimed at the development of Smart city systems." Bulletin of the National Engineering Academy of the Republic of Kazakhstan 82, no. 4 (December 15, 2021): 77–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.47533/2020.1606-146x.118.

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The article proposes a model for the computational core of the decision support system (DSS) in assessing the risks of investment loss during the dynamic planning (DP) of Smart City development. In contrast to the existing solutions, the proposed model provides specific recommendations when assessing the risks of loss. In case of an unsatisfactory risk forecast, it is possible to flexibly adjust the parameters of the investment process in order for the parties to achieve an acceptable financial result. The scientific novelty of the results is that for the first time it is proposed to apply a new class of bilinear multistep games. This class allowed us to adequately describe the process of assessing the risks of investment loss, using the example of dynamic planning for the placement of financial resources of players in Smart City projects. A distinctive feature of the considered approach is the use of tools based on the solution of a bilinear multistep game of both quality with several terminal surfaces, and a game of degree solved in the class of mixed strategies. Computational experiments were carried out in the Maple mathematical modeling package, and a DSS was developed in which a risk assessment model was implemented. The developed DSS allows to reduce the discrepancies between the data for predicting the risks of investment loss during the Smart City DP and the real return on investment.

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Mandrykin, Andrey, and Yulia Pakhomova. "Effectiveness assessment methodology financial processes in the digital economy." E3S Web of Conferences 244 (2021): 10003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202124410003.

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In today’s rapidly changing world, the application of the achievements of scientific and technological progress, the development and implementation of investment projects become a competitive advantage and the key to the successful development of regions, clusters, corporations. In some of the most dynamic industries, investing becomes a matter of not just efficient operation, but also determines the presence of companies in the market. Applied research, and even more so fundamental, requires significant investments, the return on which at the first stages of the development and implementation of investment projects is difficult to predict. The end result is also obviously not predictable, which makes investing one of the most risky areas of activity of modern companies. Therefore, today the development and improvement of investment efficiency are the most important tasks. The institutional and economic environment of developing countries may not be the positive effect expected from attracting enterprise investment. These ambiguous results regarding the impact of investment form the motivation and problem of dissertation research. Identifying and improving methodological and economic parameters for increasing investment efficiency in the electricity industry will always be one of the main tasks for owners of enterprises and managers, which determines the relevance of the study. The article developed a methodological approach to assessing the efficiency of investment projects in the electric power industry taking into account the risks taken into account in calculating the discount rate for each phase of the life cycle of the project, which allows you to more accurately calculate the main indicators of the efficiency of the investment project.

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Astanakulov, O. T., and E. G. Sheina. "Creating methodological means of analyzing and evaluating the feasibility of investment projects." National Interests: Priorities and Security 16, no. 10 (October 15, 2020): 1900–1920. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/ni.16.10.1900.

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Subject. The article discusses the economic relations of entities and investors in articulating and implementing an investment policy and managing the investment of financial resources. Objectives. We determine distinctions of creating and using a business plan of an investment project, illustrating the case of an industrial enterprise, and evaluate its performance indicators. The study also provides recommendations for mitigating investment risks identified in monitoring. Methods. Research is based on methods of the structural logic analysis and expert assessments. We hypothesize that a new investment project will be more effectively developed and implemented if there is a correct and appropriate business plan of the project and inherent investment risks are pre-assessed. Results. We analyzed statistical and dynamic methods for evaluating investment projects, found their strengths and weaknesses. Consequently, we selected optimal financial results of investment project studies, which are presented as business plans. The article sets out the methodological approach to ranking investment project risks through materiality and probability indicators, which are point-based and depend on the expert assessment method. This will allow for a more detailed classification of all risks associated with capital investment. Conclusions and Relevance. The article presents the assessment and rationale of the business plan on the investment project for industrial waste recycling, through a set of methods for evaluating the effectiveness of the investment project, so as to improve financial position and liquidity of the enterprise in the long run.

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Scacun, Natalia, and Irina Voronova. "Bibliometric Analysis of Financial Risk Assessment in Baltic Countries." Economics and Business 32, no. 1 (October 1, 2018): 182–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/eb-2018-0015.

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Abstract The article represents the bibliometric analysis of risk assessment in Baltic countries relying on scientific database. The purpose of this analysis is to study trends and development of scientific research when evaluating financial risks as well as reveal resources with high impact to apply content analysis that could be used for future research on the topic. The applied investigation methods were chosen based on the analysis of existing scientometric data: the number and dynamics of published documents; their subject area and type; territory/country; source title; affiliation; authors; h-index; citation overview followed by search results as well as adopting search references to reveal the used and cited documents. The authors also present the applied deduction of trends between enterprise death rate in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia and the number of documents in the referenced period. This study demonstrates that the amount of research increased significantly when countries face rises in enterprise death rates.

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Panasyuk, Arthur, Mikhail Shatokhin, Sergei Kuleshov, and Leonid Matyunin. "Strategic Analysis of Financial Risks in the Conditions of the Existing Macroeconomic Dynamics." SHS Web of Conferences 110 (2021): 01030. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202111001030.

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The paper considers the theoretical and practical aspects of the analysis of financial risks in the context of the existing macroeconomic dynamics. The study describes the essence and main types of financial risks of business entities, which are actualized in a turbulent macroeconomic environment. The author proposes a methodological approach for conducting a strategic analysis of financial risks, which is based on their probabilistic assessment and quantitative substantiation of the impact force. Practical testing of the proposed methodology allows for a quantitative substantiation of the level of financial risks in the activities of an economic entity, which contributes to an increase in certainty in the mechanism of their management.

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Kuznyetsova, Anzhela, and Nataliya Pogorelenko. "Assessment of the banking system financial stability based on the differential approach." Banks and Bank Systems 13, no. 3 (October 2, 2018): 120–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.13(3).2018.12.

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In this paper, the banking system financial stability is assessed based on the differential approach. The differential approach provides for taking into account the specificity of the banking system structural organization (from the standpoint of the central bank and the second-level banks) and the sets of financial stability indicators, different in terms of their structure, and their volatility measures, according to this approach.The banking system financial stability is assessed based on the two groups of indicators: the first one characterizes the central bank financial stability (indicators of gross international reserves, effectiveness of monetary policy and foreign exchange regulation, ability to create favorable conditions in order to ensure the effectiveness of the banking sector); the second one defines the financial stability level for state banks, banks with private and foreign capital (indicators of the capital adequacy, liquidity, structure of assets and liabilities, effectiveness of the activity, financial risks). The differences between the sets of financial stability indicators for different groups of banks and the expediency of taking them into account during the assessment are revealed and substantiated according to the results of using the principal components method.The developed procedure of assessing the banking system financial stability provides for: constructing the banking system financial stability index (by multiplicative convolution of central bank financial stability subindex and three banks’ financial stability subindices); defining its high, medium and low level according to its quantitative values (according to interval scales, developed according to the rule “3σ”; interpreting the assessment results based on the scenario analysis, which is based on taking into account the dynamic change of the financial stability index during the analyzed period and allows to identify the state of the banking system (stable, conventionally stable or critical).

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Bolotina, Ye, N. Steshenko, V. Tkachenko, and V. Chalenko. "Social Risks as a Factor of Regulation of the System of Social Protection of the Population in Ukraine." Economic Herald of the Donbas, no. 4 (62) (2020): 148–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2020-4(62)-148-154.

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The article classifies social risks into traditional and non-traditional and their impact on the regulation of the social protection system in Ukraine. The modern problems of financing the sphere of social protection of the population in Ukraine are revealed and the ways of their overcoming are outlined. The dynamics of arrears of wages in Ukraine and the dynamics of real disposable income of the population of Ukraine for 2005-2018 are presented. It is proved that one of the significant obstacles to the effective implementation of social policy in our country is the insufficient level of its financial support in combination with irrational planning, distribution and inefficient use of available financial resources. Respondents’ assessment of the degree of impact of traditional and non-traditional social risks on the social protection of citizens is presented. It is determined that the progressive and dynamic development of Ukraine today can focus on the socialization of the economic system with full consideration of the needs, interests of the population, its incentives for productive work to realize their own professional potential, comprehensive development, receiving a decent reward for work.

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Wang, Grace W. Y., Zhisen Yang, Di Zhang, Anqiang Huang, and Zaili Yang. "Application of Bayesian networks in analysing tanker shipping bankruptcy risks." Maritime Business Review 2, no. 3 (September 15, 2017): 177–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/mabr-12-2016-0032.

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Purpose This study aims to develop an assessment methodology using a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the failure probability of oil tanker shipping firms. Design/methodology/approach This paper proposes a bankruptcy prediction model by applying the hybrid of logistic regression and Bayesian probabilistic networks. Findings The proposed model shows its potential of contributing to a powerful tool to predict financial bankruptcy of shipping operators, and provides important insights to the maritime community as to what performance measures should be taken to ensure the shipping companies’ financial soundness under dynamic environments. Research limitations/implications The model and its associated variables can be expanded to include more factors for an in-depth analysis in future when the detailed information at firm level becomes available. Practical implications The results of this study can be implemented to oil tanker shipping firms as a prediction tool for bankruptcy rate. Originality/value Incorporating quantitative statistical measurement, the application of BN in financial risk management provides advantages to develop a powerful early warning system in shipping, which has unique characteristics such as capital intensive and mobile assets, possibly leading to catastrophic consequences.

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SALIM, AL-SAADI MOHANAD RAHIM. "THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS INDICATORS IN THE PROCESS OF RISK REDUCTION IN COMMERCIAL BANKS." EKONOMIKA I UPRAVLENIE: PROBLEMY, RESHENIYA 2, no. 2 (2021): 73–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2021.02.02.013.

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The article is devoted to the use of financial analysis for the purposes of risk management of a commer-cial bank. The paper defines the bank risk, provides a classification of banking risks, and also uses the exam-ple of the largest Russian bank, Sberbank PJSC, to calculate the main indicators used in assessing the finan-cial risks of a credit institution. In particular, the dynamics of indicators of liquidity and financial stability, indi-cators of credit risk assessment, indicators of market risk assessment are analyzed. Based on the results of the calculations, the relevant conclusions were drawn and basic recommendations for the bank’s financial risk management were developed.

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Korol, Roman, and Vladimir ZHelninskiy. "TOOLS FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF A CONSTRUCTION COMPANY IN A DYNAMIC ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT." Construction and Architecture 9, no. 1 (January 2, 2021): 16–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.29039/2308-0191-2021-9-1-16-20.

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The problem of anti-crisis management on the territory of the Russian Federation is considered.enterprises of various sectors of the economy in a dynamic environment market economy, taking into account protection against emerging risks. Theoretical approaches to the formulation of the concept are investigated "economic sustainability" and factors affecting the sustainable and efficient functioning of each organization, including construction. It is proposed to carry out on the basis of the analysis assessment of the scale of the crisis situation at the enterprise, financial provisions, risk definitions for achievement planning pre-crisis level and obtaining information for the development of development strategies.

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Mallios, William. "ADAPTIVE DRIFT MODELING OF DYNAMIC COINTEGRATED TIME SERIES: APPLICATIONS IN FINANCIAL AND SPORTS GAMBLING MARKETS." Journal of Prediction Markets 4, no. 3 (December 18, 2012): 59–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v4i3.480.

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Cointegrated time processes are viewed graphically in terms of candlestick charts in finance and sports and modeled dynamically in terms of adaptive drift procedures. Forecasts focus on active equity trading, betting against the bookmakers’ lines in sports and assessing trading/betting risks. Modeling premises are that (1) markets fluctuate between periods of efficiency and inefficiency and that (2) during inefficient periods, present and past disequilibria (shocks) have dynamic effects on subsequent price changes/game outcomes. Sports forecasting incorporates the added effects of the lines and lagged gambling shocks. Forecasts are in terms of reduced, higher order, ARMA-type processes that drift to accommodate evolving market conditions. Risk assessment is in terms of adaptive GARCH modeling. Modeling applications are with reference to the Great Depression and NFL playoff games.

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Karcheva, Ganna, and Iryna Karcheva. "THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF MANAGING THE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY OF BANKS." Economic Analysis, no. 32(1) (2022): 188–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/econa2022.01.188.

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Introduction. Existing economic and managing ways to ensure the financial and economic security of banks in Ukraine are not always reliable tools, because its mostly relate to certain aspects of the bank's activities, rather than the bank as a whole open dynamic dynamic system. According to the system approach, the basis of security of such systems is the bank's compliance with stability and dynamic balance. In this case, the stability should be considered in three aspects – the stability of the trajectory of development, the stability of the attractor and structural stability. The purpose of the study is the theoretical justification and development of practical recommendations for the building an effective system of financial and economic security management of banks considering the risks in its activities. Method (methodology). The methodological basis of the study is a systematic approach, methods of analysis and synthesis, theoretical and logical generalisations and hypotheses, economic and mathematical methods. Results. It was justified the expediency of using an integrated model of financial and economic security management of banks, which is based on an effective risk management system and provides a systematic process of risk identification, measurement, monitoring, control, reporting and appropriate regulation at all organizational levels. The proposed integrated model should include such basic components as: assessment of the existing security potential of the bank; adaptive (stabilizing) mechanism; obtaining a synergistic effect. The building of an effective system for managing the financial and economic security of banks is impossible without high-quality diagnostics and constant monitoring of the security potential of banks. A summary indicator has been developed to assess the potential of financial security of banks assessment, which is calculated on the basis of risk and the available potential of the bank's strength. It is proposed to use early warning signals that consider the dynamics and variability of liquidity and performance of banks. Experimental testing of the proposed instruments was carried out according to the financial statements of banks. The article reveals the essence of financial and economic security of banks and identifies components of the mechanism of bank security management. Developed conceptual approaches involve the use of preventive methods to prevent threats to the security of banks.

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Vasilyeva, T., and N. Antoniuk. "FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT OF AN INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISE." Vìsnik Sumsʹkogo deržavnogo unìversitetu, no. 3 (2020): 97–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/1817-9215.2020.3-10.

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The article is devoted to the issue of financial risk management of industrial enterprises, which is relevant in the modern realities of the Ukrainian economy. The Google Trends web application analyzes the popularity of search queries in business and industry for phrases such as "financial risk" and "financial risk management" in Ukraine and in the world as a whole over the past 12 months. Based on official statistics, the analysis of the dynamics of the main financial indicators of industrial enterprises of Sumy region for 5 years, namely financial results before tax, financial results from operating activities and operating profitability. Based on the coefficient of variation, the level of financial risk that accompanies the activities of industrial enterprises of Sumy region is determined. The essence of financial risks of an industrial enterprise is revealed and its constituent elements are presented. The main existing approaches to the quantitative assessment of financial risks are presented, which are mainly based on probabilistic assessment. A methodical approach to financial risk management of industrial enterprises is proposed, which provides for constant monitoring of deviations of the integrated indicator, calculated on the basis of financial statements of the enterprise and includes indicators of liquidity, financial stability, profitability, cash flow from financial activities. At the same time, the company is recommended to set clear boundaries of possible deviations of the integrated financial indicator. Emphasis is also placed on the need to form and implement an integrated financial risk management system at industrial enterprises of Ukraine in the modern economic realities of Ukraine. A clear system of financial risk management will allow industrial enterprises to respond in a timely manner to potential threats, neutralize financial risks and avoid possible losses.

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Басовская, Elena Basovskaya, Басовский, and Leonid Basovskiy. "International Economic Relations’ Risk Criterion." Economics 2, no. 6 (December 17, 2014): 23–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/6730.

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A criterion for an assessment of international economic relations’ risks has been offered. This criterion is based on proposed approach to assessment of risks for world economic dynamics and economic dynamics of different countries and territories. The economic dynamics risk is estimated by comparison of economic growth rates’ average size and a risk measure — a mean square deviation of growth rates. Definition for a line of market of international economic relations’ prospects is offered, similar to the capital market line in the financial assets’ profitability model (CAPM). On the basis of IMF data for 2004-2013 the economic dynamics risks for Europe and CIS countries have been estimated. It has been established that in Europe only economies of Switzerland, Poland, Albania and Malta have the risks below the world economy ones. From among the largest economies the smallest risks have economies of Great Britain, Germany and France. The greatest risks have economies of Italy and Spain. In the CIS only Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have the risks below the world economy ones. From among the CIS countries the Ukraine has the worst risk criteria.

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Tsyhaniuk, D., and A. Rudniak. "ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL STATUS OF THE BANKING SECTOR OF UKRAINE." Vìsnik Sumsʹkogo deržavnogo unìversitetu, no. 1 (2020): 155–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/1817-9215.2020.1-17.

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Considering the significant negative impact of financial crises on the banking sector in Ukraine, issues related to the assessment of the financial condition of banks are becoming particularly relevant. Analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis on the activities of Ukrainian banks in recent years has led to the conclusion that an effective, working mechanism for anti-crisis management has not yet been developed, focused on forecasting, overcoming, and limiting the spread of the crisis in the banking system. In this study, we analyzed the state of the banking system of Ukraine, the factors of crises that affected the financial condition of the banking sector of Ukraine in the context of 2009-2019; studied the main performance indicators of banks currently operating in Ukraine; analyzed the financial results of banking activities; Identified systemic risks that operate in the banking sector, as well as the largest risk factors for the financial sector. Calculated indicators of financial stability indicated the existence of systemic risks. According to the results of our study, the dynamics of the ratio of non-performing loans pointed out that the banking system of Ukraine, along with the unstable political and general economic situation, further increases systemic risks for the banking system and for the economy in the entirety; analysis of the Z-score indicator confirmed the presence of systemic risks and clearly demonstrated the duration and level of the crisis; an analysis of the dynamics and the political component of the country's incapacity index indicated that now Ukraine is in the most volatile situation in the last decade.

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Bi, Keran, Zheng Hua, Qinwen Shi, and Yu Zhu. "Analysis on Credit Risk Assessment for Accounts Receivable Supply Chain Financing Based on Credit Insurance." E3S Web of Conferences 275 (2021): 01065. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202127501065.

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This paper studies the model of accounts receivable supply chain financing based on credit insurance from the perspective of banks. First of all, the paper analyzes two different financing modes of the innovative model - the pledge financing mode and the factoring financing mode. Secondly, the paper explains the sources of credit risks for accounts receivable supply chain financing under credit insurance, and the necessity of using credit insurance. The sources of credit risks mainly include: the enterprises’ comprehensive strength under systemic and non-systemic risks, status of accounts receivable, supply chain operation, performance of insurance companies, and so on. In addition, based on the credit risks explained in this paper, the risk assessment system and the credit risk assessment model are built. At the end, the paper offers three suggestions for the banks’ financing risk control: bank should carefully check the policy’s exclusions clauses; bank must carefully check the authenticity of accounts receivable; bank can use dynamic monitoring on qualification checking for financing enterprises, core enterprises and insurance companies.

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22

Dosumu, Oluwaseeun. "Assessment of the Likelihood of Risk Occurrence on Tendering and Procurement of Construction Projects." Journal of Construction Business and Management 2, no. 1 (January 3, 2018): 20–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.15641/jcbm.2.1.95.

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The construction industry is plagued by risks above other industries due to its unique features which include the complexity of building activities, extended period of construction, complicated processes, financial intensity and dynamic organisational structure. These risks are not adequately dealt with and result in increased cost, time and reduced quality. While many types of research have been conducted on construction risks, only a few types of research have investigated the impact of risk (at tendering and procurement stage) on construction projects before they commence. Meanwhile, risk issues are better solved at bidding and procurement phase than construction phase as the case has been. Therefore, this paper examines the likelihood, degree of impact and probability of risk occurrence on tendering and procurement of construction projects. It also investigates the significant sources of tendering and procurement risks, the level of awareness and adoption of risk management techniques in construction tendering and procurement. The questionnaire for the study was administered on building contractors and consultants. A total of 44 questionnaires were retrieved and used for the analysis of the study. The statistical tools used for analysis are frequencies, percentages, mean scores and t test. The findings of the study revealed 17 significant sources of risk among the 35 that were investigated. Risks with high likelihood of occurrence, the degree of impact and high probability of occurrence were also indicated in the study. Based on the findings, it was concluded that respondents are aware and adopt risk management techniques on construction projects, but their adoption is at response level rather than identification level. Therefore, the recommendation of the study is that awareness should be created on the need for risk identification before construction projects commence. This should be implemented at professional and organizational level. Construction stakeholders should guard against risks with a high degree of impact and probability of occurrence during tendering and procurement of construction projects. Therefore, this study contributes to the body of knowledge by investigating the significant sources of risks to tendering and procurement, likelihood of risk occurrence, impact of risks and probability of risk occurrence in tendering and procurement. Keywords: Construction projects, Cost overrun, Impact of risk, Probability of risk, Procurement, Sources of risk, Tendering and procurement.

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23

Ivanov, R. V., V. V. Volkova, and O. S. Koval. "Model Assessment of the Financial Stability of Travel Industry Entities with Reference to Sustainable Development." PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY 3, no. 49 (2021): 153–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2021-3-153-159.

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Анотація:

The article is aimed at describing and testing a methodology for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise operating in travel industry. In analyzing the activities of a travel industry entity with reference to sustainable development, attention is focused on indicators of financial stability and one of the main financial risks, i.e., the threat of bankruptcy. Modern methods of discriminant analysis used to determine bankruptcy probability, are analyzed as for the adequacy of their use to assess the activities of travel industry entities, and the specificity of their application is described. The available performance indices of a travel agency are analyzed, whose indicators of bankruptcy probability were defined and interpreted as showing that the financial situation at the travel agency in question was satisfactory as for its sustainable development. It is confirmed that of the most widely used methods estimating bankruptcy probability, Matviychuk's model and a modified Altman model are the most proper ones in assessing travel industry entities. Comparison of the results of their application with the entity classification made on the basis of a more commonly used Beaver coefficient shows a high level of consistency among the discriminant models considered. It is noted that taking into account the specifics of the model application and choosing financial indicators are the key to conducting a qualitative analysis and implementing effective anti-crisis policy at an enterprise with reference to its sustainable development. Further analysis of travel industry entities with reference to sustainable development is planned to be conducted using the concept of dynamic equilibrium of the economic system and its effective development

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24

Derevyanko, Bogdan, Liudmyla Nikolenko, Irina Syrmamiik, Yevgen Mykytenko, and Iosif Gasparevich. "Assessment of financial and economic security of the region (based on the relevant statistics of the Donetsk region)." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 15, no. 4 (December 7, 2018): 283–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.15(4).2018.23.

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Анотація:

In the article, the indicators of financial and economic security of Donetsk region are analyzed. The task of setting statistical estimation of financial and economic security of the region in modern conditions is based on the official materials of the State Statistics Service. For the possibility of further econometric modeling and forecasting, only quantitative indicators are used. This approach limits the number of evaluated indicators, but is considered the most objective. The analysis of financial and economic security is carried out in the context of two spheres of regional development: economic and social. The conducted analysis of the dynamics of the main socio-economic indicators of development of the Donetsk region for the period 2012–2016 allowed to identify the main trends characterizing the development of the region’s economy; provide an assessment of the financial and economic security of the region and identify some “problematic” places of financial and economic security in Donetsk region. Some of the most acute problems were identified in the assessment of financial and economic security and the features of state-legal provision of financial and economic security in the present conditions, as well as the proposed algorithm for monitoring the financial and economic security of the region. The analysis allowed to identify some “bottlenecks” of financial and economic security in the Donetsk region and to demonstrate that close attention and monitoring are required by the level of capital investments, the level of unemployment and the share of households with incomes per month below the legal living wage. The study enables to minimize the risks to form effective directions in assessing the financial and economic security of the region and proposes to optimize on a legal basis the whole mechanism for ensuring the financial and economic security of the region. As a result, the research revealed the most acute problems in assessing the financial and economic security of the region and proposed an appropriate algorithm for monitoring its level.

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25

Každailienė, Jūratė, and Dalia Daujotaitė. "Assessment of trade credit risk in business companies." Buhalterinės apskaitos teorija ir praktika, no. 15A (July 9, 2014): 133–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/batp.2014.15a.11.

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Анотація:

The article‘s topic is relevant, because the importance of trade credit constantly increases. Trade credit can be one of the most important preconditions for the competitiveness of the enterprise and business development. There is a lack of scientific sources in the field of estimation of trade credit risk – there is no any particular, simple to use methodology to assess company trade credit risk. The aim of the article – to compose a methodology of assessment company trade credit risk for Lithuanian small and medium enterprises. In the article, following scientific sources approach, the advantages, risks and key financial and non-financial trade credit risk factors were identified. Based on the scientific sources and expert evaluation, the methodology of company trade credit risk assessment was created. The methodology is based on 10 key indicators identified by the experts. 12 financial ratios and non-financial indicators are being used – current and quick ratio, gross and net profit margin, Altman Z model, debt ratio, stock and debtors turnover, enterprise age, reputation, number and dynamics of employees. The indicators have been scored. The highest possible score is 100. The research approves that the methodology suits to be used in practice. It is simple, reliable, cheap, non-time consuming; it is easy to collect data, the data is being formalized and quantified. The disadvantages of methodology – the data is not always reliable and some ratios are of different importance in the different economic sectors. The methodology should be modified to adapt for the different sectors of business.

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26

Denezhkina, I. E., G. N. Martirosyan, V. YU Popov, and A. B. Shapoval. "ASSESSMENT OF MARKET VOLATILITY DYNAMICS IN THE PERIODS OF SYSTEMIC INSTABILITIES." Strategic decisions and risk management, no. 1 (October 25, 2014): 70–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.17747/2078-8886-2013-1-70-75.

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The new method of estimation of the values of the VaR using the modified GARCH model is presented, effectively assessing risks as in the quiet periods of financial market and at the same time the system instabilities.To check the efficiency of the estimation of the VaR used for statistics, calculated as on total time interval, and in the sliding window. Results of local and global use of these statistics are in good agreement with each other, with the statistics computed in sliding window provide information about the uniformity of the effectiveness of calculating VaR. In particular, the effectiveness of the assessment of VaR practically did not change during the periods of the significant rise in prices in comparison with the «quiet» periods.

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27

Olena, SHCHETININA, SMYRNOVA Olesia, and KOTLIAR Valerii. "FINANCIAL MODELING: PROBABILITY THEORETIC APPROACHES." Herald of Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics 139, no. 5 (October 25, 2021): 127–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.31617/visnik.knute.2021(139)09.

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Анотація:

Background. A large number of significant socio-economic events occur under the influence of unique factors. Formal application of probabilistic and statistical methods in such cases leads to analytical conclusions without sufficient scientific justification. Financial modeling reflects modern approaches to the probability interpretation, provides introduction and systematization of risk indicators, and the necessity of improving theoretical and probabilistic disciplines of economic orientation. Analysis of recent research and publications has shown that despite significant investigations, financial modeling is not theoretically complete scientific direction in terms of economic risk indicators and derivative characteristics, important scientific and practical problems remain unresolved in the analysis of socio-economic phenomena in uncertainty and implementation of modern achievements of scientists to the process. The aim of the article is to study theoretical and probabilistic concepts of socio-economic processes in conditions of uncertainty and uniqueness based on the financial modeling methods. Materials and methods. Analytical and statistical methods, methods of mathematical statistics and probability theory are used in the research process. Information database is data from trading sessions of world stock markets. Results. Theoretical and probabilistic concepts, including interpretations of probability and risk are considered through formalization of the analysis process by the subject of the socio-economic phenomenon in conditions of uncertainty. Models of typical stationary, dynamic, parity and dominant lotteries with introduced risk indicators are built. Risk is interpreted as the ratio of negative and favorable factors of the phenomenon information background. Relevant indicators are illustrated and calculated using various socio-economic and financial cases. Subjective-probabilistic modeling (SPM) in relation to decision-making in the financial market is studied as the development of Bayesian subjectivism. It has been shown that group consensus SPM-assessments of risk generate specific derivative financial instruments such as binary options, index derivatives, crypto-assets, etc. Conclusion. The results of the study showed the application effectiveness of financial modeling methods of risks assessment in financial markets, the prospects of relevant development in the field of financial engineering. Teaching economic disciplines, which are based on theoretical and probabilistic postulates, statistical and analytical-statistical procedures for calculating probabilistic indicators (probability, risk, prevention regulations, etc.), requires significant addition using the introduction of new methods of information analysis of social background, financial sphere to determine the optimal direction of development and investment activities. Keywords: risk ratio, probability interpretation, binary options, financial modeling, high-risk financial markets, subjective-probabilistic modeling.

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28

Rakhman, M. S., and O. M. Haltseva. "Analyzing the Structural Changes in the Credit Performance Indicators of Banks of Ukraine." Business Inform 9, no. 512 (2020): 228–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2020-9-228-238.

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The revenue part of the banking institution is formed mainly due to the volume of credits provided and depends on the conditions of crediting the financial services market participants. Consequently, the insufficiency or inaccessibility of credit resources adversely affects the status of the entire economy. The article is aimed at an economic and statistical analysis of the current status of credit activity of the banking system of Ukraine in the dynamic conditions of development of the national economy, identifying tendencies, substantiating the prospects for expanding and reducing the risks of credit activities of banking institutions. The role and tasks of the bank’s credit operations in the country’s economy are considered; the status of the credit portfolio of the banking system in recent years is characterized; a new redistribution of banks to groups by the structure of authorized capital and the size of assets is provided. An analysis of the volumes and structure of the banks’ assets in terms of organizational and legal forms of ownership (public, private, foreign) and the proportion of credits in the structure of assets is carried out. The authors analyze changes in the total volumes and dynamics of crediting in terms of: crediting entities; national and foreign currencies; dynamics of the exchange rate and the structure of crediting by type of activity. The impact of seasonality of credit provision is identified. An assessment of the number, structure and volumes of crediting by non-financial credit institutions is provided. The predictive models are developed using different mathematical functions and statistical methods. As a result of the carried out SWOT-analysis, the main problems and shortcomings of the banking system are identified. A project of recommendations on reducing credit risks is proposed.

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29

Gavrilina, D. N., and A. S. Ogareva. "Strategic Assessment of the Efficiency of Diversification of the Industry Investment Portfolio." Administrative Consulting, no. 9 (November 11, 2021): 31–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/1726-1139-2021-9-31-44.

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One of the effective special tools used to achieve the least risk and sustainable income of investment in enterprises is the investment portfolio. At the same time, one of the simplest and most effective strategies to minimize investor risk is its diversification.The article presents the results of the performed strategic financial analysis of the effectiveness of diversification of the formed sectoral investment portfolio using the example of large enterprises of the metallurgical industry. The choice of industry was determined by the fact that metallurgy is one of the fastest growing industries in the world economy.The article analyzes the strategic development trends of the metallurgical industry and considers the three largest companies in this industry (“MMK”, “Severstal”, “NLMK”). Their activity was analyzed in dynamics based on financial reporting data presented on company websites.Comparative analysis was carried out on such indicators of financial analysis as current liquidity ratios, equity and financial leverage concentration ratios, as well as interest-to-payment ratios, turnover of reserves and funds in turnover, profitability of the companies under consideration.In the resulting formation of the investment portfolio, correlation coefficients between the returns of the shares of these companies were calculated. It was established that the financial situation, as well as the low correlation coefficient between the assets of the reviewed companies, allow us to form from their shares an industry investment portfolio that minimizes the risks of a potential investor.

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30

Gul, Izzet Alp, Gülgün Kayakutlu, and M. Özgür Kayalica. "Risk Analysis in Renewable Energy System (RES) Investment for a Developing Country: A Case Study in Pakistan." Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice 19, no. 2 (March 23, 2020): 204–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0976747920910824.

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Technological improvements allow changing a significant part of the electricity generation investments to renewable energies. Especially in emerging markets and energy import-dependent countries, shift to renewable energy generation became more important to break the links of dependency. Pakistan relies on imported fossil fuels; however, the country’s experience and ambition about the renewable energy transition gain prominence in recent years. Considering the long-term life cycle of energy infrastructure investments, possible risk factors and their dynamic nature must be analysed before the financial decisions are taken. This article aims to propose a system dynamics model for the risk analysis of investment life cycle. In this study, possible risk factors are detected and discussed in different categories. The casual loop diagram of possible risk factors and risk assessment model are designed, and the impacts are analysed. Case study of the proposed model in Pakistan highlighted the importance of commercial risks. The results achieved through this study will guide investors, sector participants and policymakers to develop stable strategies for promoting renewable energy in the country. JEL: Q42, P48, O13

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31

Kopylyuk, O. I., O. М. Muzychka, and S. S. Gapyak. "The Mechanism for Ensuring the Security of the Insurance Market of Ukraine." Business Inform 1, no. 528 (2022): 345–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2022-1-345-350.

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The article is aimed at substantiating the essence and components of the mechanism for ensuring the security of the insurance market with the specification of forms, methods, levers, and instruments. It is proved that the security of the insurance market is a dynamic characteristic of the state and resource capacity of functioning entities to provide insurance protection in the conditions of identification of potential and real risks, threats and dangers and the ability to form an investment potential to finance the country’s economic growth by placing reserves. It is noted that the mechanism for ensuring the security of the insurance market includes an aggregate of forms, methods, levers, instruments, regulatory-information support and will allow to assess its status in the conditions of real and potential risks, threats and dangers in both the current and the strategic dimensions. As a component of the mechanism, the sequence of the following stages of ensuring the security of the insurance market of Ukraine is proposed: analysis and assessment of the main indicators of the functioning of the insurance market; identification of risks, threats and dangers of the insurance market; comprehensive assessment of the level of security of the insurance market; assessment of the impact of insurance market security on the financial security of the State; monitoring of the level of security of the insurance market; strategizing the security of insurance market. Prospects for further research in this direction are the development of methodological recommendations for assessing the level of security of the insurance market and substantiation of strategies for its development on the basis of security and adaptation to the EU requirements. A special direction of deepening this issue is the study of the risks of the functioning of insurance market, methods of their quantitative and qualitative assessment of the impact on the level of security, taking into account the specifics of both insurance and reinsurance.

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TSYHAN, Raisa, Oksana ONYSHCHENKO, and Denys SOLODKOV. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on assessment of companies activity within international standards of financial reporting." Economics. Finances. Law 11/3, no. - (November 26, 2021): 32–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.37634/efp.2021.11(3).8.

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Introduction. During crises like the current one, induced by a global pandemic of the COVID-19, the most relevant aspects for the majority of businesses are a continuity of their operating, assessment for impairment and assessment of expected credit losses. These factors impact accounting and financial reporting which, in turn, impact decision-making. A business survival in such conditions is highly dependent on how efficiently managers assess these aspects. The purpose of the paper is to determine particular actions management should undertake in order to prevent business bankruptcy as a result of the pandemic and the pandemic-related restrictions. Results. It terms of assessment of continuity of business operating, the main issue is the fact that the budgets approved in 2019 for the year 2020 turned to be irrelevant in the context of expected prices, sales volumes, total net profit, working capital and the effects of exchange difference, whereas the key solution is an estimation of a company’s liquidity to be able to cover liabilities within the deadlines. In terms of assessment for impairment, there two indicators of the impairment: external changes with significant impact on a company or its environment and a situation when a book value of net assets exceeds company’s market capitalization whereas a solution is to determine amount of expected compensation either with a traditional approach or with an approach based on expected cash flows. In terms of credit losses assessment, among the factors that should be accounted there are, for instance, additional economic scenarios that address high uncertainty, an impact on particular groups of clients, industries or regions and actions taken by governments and central banks whereas among the targets of the assessment there are, for instance, an ability to include changes of a default risk into evaluation of default probability in time. Conclusions. COVID-19 pandemic and the risks related to it caused a significant impact on accounting and financial reporting, regardless of a company’s industry, size and region where it is located which is expressed in the dynamic of the Global SEMs bankruptcy index and PMI.

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Vlasov, Dmitriy, P. Karasev, and Aleksandr Sinchukov. "Quantitative Analysis of the Camera Market Based on the Integrated Application Of game-Theoretic and Econometric Approaches." Scientific Research and Development. Economics of the Firm 10, no. 2 (August 6, 2021): 15–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/2306-627x-2021-10-2-15-22.

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This article contains a quantitative analysis of the camera market and discloses the possibilities of comprehensive application of quantitative analysis and theoretical game modeling in the practice of making decisions in the field of the photo industry. It is noted that almost any phenomenon in the financial and economic sphere requires a thorough and comprehensive assessment, and the method of analyzing data in the form of dynamic series and theoretical and game models is most in demand in the conditions of actualization of risks of various nature. It is shown that the analysis of the dynamic series allows you to evaluate and predict the development of the economic situation, to form recommendations for making managerial decisions. Particular attention is paid to the construction and analysis of the basic game model of the manufacturer's choice of camera equipment for the time of launch of products to the market, taking into account projected demand. The inclusion of the risk factor in the process of quantitative analysis of the camera market helps to improve the quality of decisions made, in particular when choosing marketing strategies.

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Zaby, Simon, and Michael Pohl. "The Management of Reputational Risks in Banks: Findings From Germany and Switzerland." SAGE Open 9, no. 3 (July 2019): 215824401986147. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2158244019861479.

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This article identifies reputation-risk-relevant factors for banks, and the focus will be placed on the development of an indicator-based model for the assessment of reputation. Requirements and insights are based on a survey of credit institutions in Germany and Switzerland, which have been predominantly affected during the financial crisis by aptly nascent risks and which are thereby also partially affected even today. Reputation level can be considered as a temporally dynamical phenomenon which predominantly develops depending on the changes in the reputation drivers and expectations of the groups of stakeholders. This control parameter can be determined with the aid of Reputation Index Points (RIP). Efficient reputation risk management can, in the future, help prevent negative spillover effects from banks which face difficulties from the society or the taxpayers.

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35

Haq, Rashida. "Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in a Developing Economy." Pakistan Development Review 54, no. 4I-II (December 1, 2015): 915–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v54i4i-iipp.915-929.

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The concept of vulnerability extends the idea of poverty to include idiosyncratic as well as aggregate risks which can be defined as the probability of being in poverty or to fall deeper into poverty in the future. It can be categorised on the micro-and macro level where macro vulnerability refers to worldwide threats to social welfare, e.g. globalisation and recent international financial crises. Conversely, micro vulnerability refers to the household level risks including health risks, economic shocks, social shocks, natural disasters, and demographic shocks [Tesliuc and Lindert (2004)]. To assess and estimate vulnerability to poverty, various approaches had been proposed. First, vulnerability can be seen as a probability of falling into poverty in near future [Chaudhuri (2003); Christaensen and Subbarao (2005)]. The other ways of measuring vulnerability consider it as low expected utility [Ligon and Schechter (2003)] and vulnerability as uninsured expose to risk, i.e., measures of cost, in terms of consumption [Tesliuc and Lindert (2004)]. The basic idea is that the state of poverty at a given point actually is not sufficient for assessing poverty and for drawing results to design poverty reduction programs. Households face various risks and do not know whether any possible shock will hit them in future. So the assessment of poverty at a given point in time is a static approach, not considering possible changes in the future. By assessing vulnerability it refers to the dynamic perspective, it is explicitly forward looking and tries to include the risks that may push people into poverty in future

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Viñuela, Carlos, Juan Sapena, and Gonzalo Wandosell. "The Future of Money and the Central Bank Digital Currency Dilemma." Sustainability 12, no. 22 (November 20, 2020): 9697. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12229697.

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In this paper we set out a three-pillar monetary-financial framework to (i) analyze, categorize and compare past, current and emerging means of payment; to (ii) capture their creation and destruction processes through sectoral balance sheet dynamics; and to (iii) identify the inherent risks to the current monetary-financial system, also known as the fractional reserve banking system. These risks, which stem from sudden shifts in money demand and supply, are as follows: (I) risk of a cashless society; (II) risk of structural bank disintermediation; (III) risk of systemic bank runs; (IV) risk of currency substitution; and (V) risk of economic and financial bubbles. This framework will guide the assessment of the central bank digital currencies (CBDC), which are considered as the next step in monetary evolution. We will analyze two large groups of CBDC proposals: (i) proposals aimed at complementing cash and bank deposits; and (ii) proposals aimed at replacing all bank deposits with CBDCs. We find that once CBDCs are issued in both sets of proposals, there is always a trade-off between low levels of (I), (IV), (V), risks and high levels of (II) risk. This trade-off could also be defined as the CBDC dilemma, which states that in most CBDC proposals it is impossible to have both of the following at the same time: (1) low levels of (I), (IV) and (V) risks; and (2) low levels of (II) risk. Finally, we suggest that further research on CBDCs should focus on the second group of proposals on a phase-in basis in order to also mitigate the structural bank disintermediation risk and hence to overcome the CBDC dilemma.

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37

Chornovol, Alla. "Financial strategy in the public governance system." University Economic Bulletin, no. 50 (August 31, 2021): 193–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.31470/2306-546x-2021-50-193-198.

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Анотація:

Relevance of the research topic. The current stage of socio-economic development of both countries with developed and transformational economies is characterized by uncertainty of the external environment, intensification of globalization processes, which raises the issue of substantiation of financial strategy, specification of its tasks and development of tools for their solution. Formulation of the problem. With increasing volatility of socio-economic dynamics, the COVID-19 pandemic raises the need to develop a public financial strategy that will improve the quality of fiscal risk assessment, develop tools to minimize them, increase coordination of public authorities, reduce unproductive government spending. Analysis of recent research and publications. Problems of formation and implementation of financial strategy in the system of public administration are revealed in many scientific researches of domestic and foreign scientists: J. Keynes, P. Samuelson, J. Stiglitz, S. Kucherenko, L. Levaeva, L. Lysyak, I. Lukyanenko, L. Marmul, V. Makogon, V. Fedosova, I. Chugunova and others. Selection of unexplored parts of the general problem. Increasing volatility of socio-economic dynamics impairs the chances of rapid economic recovery. In this regard, an important task is to develop a public financial strategy aimed at implementing measures to minimize fiscal risks. Problem statement, research goals. The objectives of the study are: to substantiate the role of financial strategy in the system of public administration in conditions of increasing volatility of socio-economic dynamics, the COVID-19 pandemic; to determine the features of the formation and implementation of financial strategy in the system of public administration; to analyze and estimate state budget expenditures. The purpose of the study is to reveal and substantiate approaches to the formation and implementation of financial strategy in the public administration system. Method or methodology of the study. To achieve the goal of the article, a set of general scientific and special methods was used: theoretical generalization and comparison; systemic; comparative analysis; scientific abstraction. Presentation of the main material (results of work). The role of financial strategy in the system of public administration in the conditions of increasing volatility of socio-economic dynamics, pandemic COVID-19 is revealed. Peculiarities of formation and implementation of financial strategy in the system of public administration are determined. The analysis and estimation of state budget expenditures is carried out. Approaches to the formation and implementation of financial strategy in the public administration system are substantiated. Field of application of results. The results of the study can be used in the process of reforming the financial system and its components. Conclusions in accordance with the article. The formation and implementation of a sound public financial strategy is a prerequisite for ensuring the stability of macroeconomic dynamics through the synergy of tools of the components of the public administration system, the development of tools to minimize fiscal risks.

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Filatova, H., and I. Makarenko. "ASSESSMENT OF THE INTEGRATED DEBT SECURITY INDEX OF UKRAINE." Vìsnik Sumsʹkogo deržavnogo unìversitetu, no. 4 (2020): 158–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/1817-9215.2020.4-18.

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The major problem of the current financial system of Ukraine is the critical condition of public debt. Its formation was unsystematic with operational financing of current budget expenditures that influenced its structure and dynamics. Ensuring the stability of the financial system and keeping the debt burden within safe limits, or at least ensuring its permanence, are Ukraine's debt policy's primary tasks. Simultaneously, the system of debt security indicators is an instrument for assessing the country's financial system's ability to meet its debt obligations. The article provides a list of key indicators of debt security, compares their limits in Ukraine and in world practice. This study is aimed to outline the scientific and methodological approach to determining the state debt security condition. It was developed on the basis of a quantitative assessment of relevant indicators, their further grouping, which allows analyzing the potential threats and sources of instability, predicting their future dynamics, and calculating the integrated debt security index of Ukraine. The main idea of the methodology for assessing the integrated debt security index is to evaluate the country`s debt security level in a certain period as a single summary indicator. Indeed, all threats and destabilizing factors measured by some debt security indicators might be taken into special consideration. However, their cumulative impact provides an overall result and allows assessing the overall debt security level. The analysis of the calculated integrated debt security index will allow timely react to potential threats and neutralize the risks caused by an excessive debt burden. Methods for rationing debt security indicators have been reviewed, taking into account the advantages and disadvantages of each of these methods – the optimal one has been chosen. The study covers the period from 2009 to 2019. The analysis of the debt security dynamics and the integrated index let on concluding that the debt situation in Ukraine is unstable, and there is a significant increase in debt over the past 11 years. Unsatisfactory values of both individual debt security indicators and the integrated index indicate the need for serious attention of public authorities and the need to optimize the management of Ukraine’s debt security in the system of economic security.

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DERKACH, Tetiana. "COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL SYSTEMS OF THE CANADA AND THE USA." WORLD OF FINANCE, no. 1(62) (2020): 107–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/sf2020.01.107.

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Introduction. To determine the strategic goals of transforming the financial system of Ukraine, it is especially important to study the experience of successful and effective world economies. The iconic examples of such systems are the financial systems of Canada and the United States. The purpose of this article is to analyze the dynamics of the United States and Canadian financial systems’ indicators and determine the characteristics of the development of these countries in terms of their future closest financial integration. Methods. The research methodology was based on a combination of such scientific methods as: generalization, graphic and comparative analysis, analysis and synthesis, this made possible to determine the development details of the USA and Canadian financial system and the possibilities for their financial sector further integration and harmonization. Results. The USA and Canadian financial systems are analyzed, especially, the causes and consequences of the financial integration of these systems, as well as possible ways for their further development are thoroughly studied. Such stability indicators of the financial system as inflation, money supply, interest rate dynamics and public debt are researched. Risk assessment of the further development of the financial system of the USA and Canada is also done. Conclusions. The Canadian and US financial systems are closely interconnected through many years of cooperation. Accordingly, the risks in these systems are the same, and factors that are similar for both countries hinder their development. Although, regardless of these factors, in general, the development of the financial systems of the United States and Canada is stable and consistent.

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Sukach, Olena. "Risk Minimization as a Tool to Ensure the Banks Security." Modern Economics 22, no. 1 (August 27, 2020): 90–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.31521/modecon.v22(2020)-14.

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Introduction. The banking system of Ukraine, in the conditions of the current crisis, turned out to be untenable to quickly adapt to structural changes in the economy, which manifested itself in the absence of an effective system for managing banking risks. Further instability in the financial market will increase the negative impact on the level of financial security of the banking sector. Today there is a need for the formation of preventive measures for risk management, prevention of their occurrence and minimization, which will contribute to the safe position of the bank. Purpose. The main purpose of the study is to identify modern methods and approaches regarding the classification of banking risks and substantiation of proposals for their minimization, as well as ensuring the financial security of the banking sector in Ukraine. The main research methods are methods of quantitative, qualitative analysis and statistical analysis, as well as methods of expert assessments. Results. Summarizing the results of research by scientists, it was stated that banking risk is the likelihood of losses in the form of loss of assets, shortfall in planned income, or the appearance of additional costs as a result of the bank’s financial transactions. The main results of the banking system of Ukraine in 2019 and the dynamics for 7 months of 2020 are determined. Despite the positive trends of 2019, there is a risk of new problem loans due to non-conservative policy of banks in the growing segment of consumer lending. Modern practice shows that any credit product of a bank leads to the formation of a certain credit risk, and until the client returns the received resources, the bank is forced to form reserves for possible losses from non-repayment of funds. Conclusions. Сonclusions are drawn regarding the credit risk management tools. Based on the results of the study, the author’s approach to the classification of risks and reasonable approaches to their management are presented. In particular, it has been proved that during the formation of risk management tools, namely credit risk, and ensuring the bank’s security, it is necessary to take into account that risk assessment indicators should consider not only the ratio between assets and liabilities, but also their maturity dates.

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Shygun, M. M., and U. O. Marchuk. "INCREASE IN AUDIT RISKS OF NON-DETECTION OF SCAM IN A PANDEMIC." THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ISSUES OF ECONOMICS, no. 43 (2021): 187–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.17721/tppe.2021.43.18.

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The impact of Covid-19 on the quality of audits has been studied and the risks of increasing the range for fraud have been identified. The article outlines the range of services provided by audit companies, including: accounting, financial reporting, tax services, payroll services, labor support and insurance, planning and reporting, consulting services. These factors indicate that the number of frauds increased during Covid-19 and may increase, as fraud detection is more difficult in the digital environment. Revenues for 2020 and 2021 are outlined and a rating of the 10 largest international audit companies is built. An analytical assessment of changes in the income of each of the represented international audit companies was performed. It is noted that companies registered in the United States have adapted to the economic landscape changed by Covid-19. It was noted that according to the Audit Analytics report, 800 companies reported changes in their internal control related to changes in pandemic risks. The dynamics of the total income of audit firms of the Big Four from 2009 to 2020 is given. It is stated that while Deloitte received the largest share of its revenue in America, KPMG's Amsterdam-based revenue was the largest in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. It is noted that the two leading international audit companies received a significant portion of their revenues from auditing, assurance, auditing and corporate risks. The income of international audit firms of the Big Four by types of activity in 2020 on the international market of services is allocated. Management fraud statistics are estimated at 12%, auditor and accountant statistics at 14% worldwide, and operating fraud statistics at 15%. In general, the ability of management to compare the financial statements prepared by the accountant with external auditors helps in assessing performance and risk assessment, and the independent auditor's opinion serves as a guide for relevant stakeholders in decision-making, and creates and helps reduce information asymmetry. The dynamics of changes in the number of employees for the period 2020 -2021 in the 10 most successful international audit companies in the world. The impact of remote work through the COVID-19 pandemic and the feedback from audit firms and their employees through organizational support (employer-to-employee) and organizational commitment (employee-to-employer commitment) are identified. The division of organizational support into: a sense of support for the company and a sense of support for colleagues. In general, in the event of a pandemic, the vast majority of meetings take place through digital communication channels, which significantly affects the well-being and mental state of staff.

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Мандрон, В. В., Н. А. Кузнецова, and В. А. Шедько. "Assessment of investment activity of the Russian banking sector on the stock market." Voprosy regionalnoj ekonomiki, no. 2(43) (June 17, 2020): 190–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.21499/2078-4023-2020-43-2-190-201.

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Вопросы обеспечения экономического роста страны, увеличения объемов инвестиций и активизации инвестиционного процесса приобретают особую актуальность на современном этапе. Коммерческие банки являются неотъемлемыми участниками инвестиционного процесса и играют важную роль на инвестиционном рынке, выступая посредниками в аккумулировании и перераспределении временно свободных средств и размещении их в инвестиции. Несмотря, на финансовый потенциал банковского сектора, современный фондовый рынок не позволяет кредитным организациям в достаточной мере реализовывать его. На инвестиционную деятельность банков оказывает существенное влияние риски и низкая ликвидность большого числа корпоративных ценных бумаг. В статье дается оценка состава, структуры и общих объемов инвестиционных операций банковского сектора и стратегии кредитных организаций в сфере портфельных инвестиций, подробно рассматриваются инвестиционные риски, отражается связь рыночного риска с другими видами банковских рисков. Особое внимание уделено анализу динамики основных показателей характеризующих инвестиционную банковскую деятельность. The issues of ensuring the countrys economic growth increasing the volume of investments and activating the investment process are of particular relevance at the present stage. Commercial banks are integral participants in the investment process and play an important role in the investment market, acting as intermediaries in the accumulation and redistribution of temporarily available funds and placing them in investments. Despite the financial potential of the banking sector? the modern stock market does not allow credit institutions to sufficiently implement it. Banks investment activities are significantly affected by the risks and low liquidity of a large number of corporate securities in various sectors of the economy that objects of investment. The article provides an assessment of the composition. Structure and General scope of investment of the banking sector and the strategy of credit institutions in the field of portfolio investments, discusses investment r risks in detail, and reflects the relationship of market risk with other types of banking risks/ Special attention is paid to the analysis of the dynamics of the main indicators that characterize investment banking activities.

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Binda, Jacek. "Cryptocurrencies – problems of the high-risk instrument definition." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 17, no. 1 (March 27, 2020): 227–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(1).2020.20.

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Money is a widely accepted commodity, which enables us to determine the economic value of purchased goods and services and make payments. The dynamic development of technology and social expectations has expanded the spectrum of available types of payment instruments, including e-money and cryptocurrencies. Among dematerialized means of payment, cryptocurrencies began to play an important role due to their independence from central financial institutions and a highly effective form of saving money. The paper aims to present legal authorization, referring to cryptocurrencies, in countries of the European Union and prove that bitcoin is a high-riskу financial instrument. The methodology of the study was based on the review of available legal acts and literature (regarding the nature and function of money) and Value at Risk (VaR) model on the example of risk assessment of cryptocurrencies with respect to investing in the selected currencies. The outcomes showed several discrepancies in the definition of cryptocurrencies. They indicated that bitcoin, as one of the best-known cryptocurrencies, does not fulfill the functions of money formulated in economic theory (in relation to e-money). Besides, cryptocurrencies have been shown to be high-risky instruments.

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Chugunov, I., V. Makogon, and Yu Markuts. "INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATIONS OF THE PUBLIC FINANCE SYSTEM." Financial and credit activity: problems of theory and practice 2, no. 37 (April 30, 2021): 325–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.18371/fcaptp.v2i37.230298.

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Abstract. The article reveals the role of the public finance system in macroeconomic stability, regulation of economic processes, and improving the level and quality of life of the population. The directions of institutional transformations of the public finance system are determined. The authors disclose the provisions on improving the efficiency of public financial resources, improving public debt management tools, developing the institutional environment of public-private partnership, criteria for allocating public financial resources in the unfavorable dynamics of budget revenues. The share of public debt in the GDP of the EU countries is analyzed and estimated. The article proposes provisions to increase the effectiveness of public financial control and audit, improve the system of public forecasting to ensure timely implementation of adequate financial and budgetary measures and respond to the socio-economic situation in the country, strengthening the strategic nature of public financial and budgetary forecasts. It is substantiated that in the conditions of institutional transformations of formation of budgetary indicators, their architectonics should be carried out proceeding from necessity: optimization of expenses of budgets of various levels; acceptance of new expenditure commitments is possible only if the comparative assessment of their effectiveness is higher than the current commitments, taking into account the timing and level of available financial resources for their implementation; continuous analysis and evaluation of expenditure commitments to determine inefficient costs. The article identifies the importance in the current conditions of development of the public finance system of continuous assessment of fiscal risks to ensure the stability and balance of the budget system; ensuring a sufficient level of flexibility of budget expenditures based on the macroeconomic situation in the country; improving the regulatory and methodological support of the budget process. Keywords: public finance, budget system, public debt, fiscal policy, economic growth. JEL Classification Е62, H60, O40 Formulas: 0; fig.: 0; tabl.: 1; bibl.: 10.

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Terziev, Venelin, and Hristo Bonev. "CLASSIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF FACTORS, METHODS AND TOOLS IN THE PROSTITUTION PREVENTION MANAGEMENT." Knowledge International Journal 28, no. 6 (December 10, 2018): 2119–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.35120/kij28062119v.

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The article analyzes the women sexual exploitation in order to obtain the benefits and financial resources that feed organized crime groups. The prevention effectiveness is determined by the quality of risk assessment, the definition of critical sites and activities, the purposefulness and consistency of the measures implementation. The dynamics and the essence of the modern threats to people security determine the preventive activity and the preparation for adequate response in situations by the state authorities. The criterion for defining them is the responsibility to protect lives and health of many citizens, and to prevent accidents associated with risks to their normal existence. Pre-preparedness for prevention provides the necessary resources and stable partner organizations to effectively support the law enforcement structures.

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Tashtamirov, Magomed, Arsan Hasbulatov, and Jamalai Gesuev. "Methodology for assessment of total stability of regional high-yield budgets of Russia." SHS Web of Conferences 101 (2021): 02018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202110102018.

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The stability of the budget system allows the national economy to ensure overall stability not only in the fiscal aspect, but also in many other areas of public activity. Risks of instability in one segment of the budget structure can cause a cascade of problematic aspects and negatively affect the overall balance of the country's budget system. Fiscal policy in Russia is still unable to solve the problem of increasing the financial autonomy of a certain category of regional budgets that have a high degree of subsidy dependence. Stable maintenance of the number of high-yield budgets of the country's constituent entities causes additional risks of the fiscal policy instability. In this regard, the research of the formation and state of regional budgets with a high subsidy dependence is quite relevant, especially in the context of increased external challenges. This article is aimed at multi-dimensional identification of problematic aspects of the stability level of the regional high-yield budgets of Russia in terms of their balance, stability and debt burden, which will determine their current state in current conditions. Analysis of the dynamics of revenues and expenditures of a regional high-yield budgets group with the determination of the level of their balance over the past three years is carried out. Methodology for a comprehensive assessment of the overall level of regional budgets' stability has been developed, including 5 main groups that reflect the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of regional finance. Analysis of the budget stability of high-yield regions of Russia is carried out. The main positive and negative aspects that characterize the state of the regional high-yield budgets of the country are identified.

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Greiving, Stefan, Leonie Schödl, Karl-Heinz Gaudry, Iris Katherine Quintana Miralles, Benjamín Prado Larraín, Mark Fleischhauer, Myriam Margoth Jácome Guerra, and Jonathan Tobar. "Multi-Risk Assessment and Management—A Comparative Study of the Current State of Affairs in Chile and Ecuador." Sustainability 13, no. 3 (January 28, 2021): 1366. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13031366.

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In Chile and Ecuador, multiple hazards and dynamic processes in vulnerability pose a high risk. Spatial planning and emergency management can contribute to disaster risk management but they follow different goals. However, global goals, such as from UN-ISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction) and UN SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals) can potentially support cities and regions in defining concerted action. This paper aims at measuring the performance of Chile and Ecuador in regard to the aforementioned policy goals. Although both countries show considerable progresses in the implementation of the UN strategies, it is doubtful that the existing global monitoring approach is appropriately designed for measuring the real situation on the ground. Our paper is based on a desktop research combined with stakeholder workshops and expert interviews. Overall, both countries made considerable progress in regard to disaster preparedness and monitoring. However, multi-risks are rarely considered and there is still increasing vulnerability due to the expansion of informal settlements. The risk management is characterized by an imbalanced distribution of financial resources and institutional capacities between the metropolitan regions and smaller municipalities, and by low public participation and hardly community-based approaches. The paper underlines the importance for more qualitative, in-depth studies on the root causes of disaster risk which could complement the global monitoring which is very much focused on quantitative data and shows inconsistency between input and output indicators.

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48

Оголихина, Светлана, and Svetlana Ogolihina. "Cryptocurrencies: the Main Tendencies of Development in Russia at the Present Stage." Scientific Research and Development. Economics 5, no. 6 (January 10, 2018): 54–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/article_5a2a518c27d597.43407343.

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In the article the research directed to detection of tendencies of development of cryptocurrencies in the world financial market on the base of which dynamics of cryptocurrencies in Russia and foreign countries is predicted is conducted. As three most perspective virtual currencies are selected by the author: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin. On the basis of carrying out the comparative analysis features, advantages and shortcomings of each of cryptocurrencies are revealed, dynamics of their capitalization for last period of 2017 is analyzed.The innovative technological frameworks created on the database of cryptocurrencies are considered, assessment of their efficiency is carried out. As a result of the conducted research the author offered own forecast of development of three cryptocurrencies based on the optimistic scenario till 2019. Within the forecast dynamics of growth of exchange rate in the long term and possible risks for investors is designated. In the inference conclusions are drawn and the main tendencies of development of cryptocurrencies in a pattern are defined.

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Lavreniuk, V. V., and D. Y. Lukianchuk. "Managing the Bank’s Currency Risk in the Face of Turbulence in Global Financial Markets." Business Inform 11, no. 514 (2020): 288–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2020-11-288-295.

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The article is aimed at researching the theoretical-methodological and practical aspects of the bank’s currency risk management. To solve the tasks set, the authors use general scientific and specific methods, in particular: logic-dialectical, mathematical and graphic. Based on generalization, analysis and comparison of different approaches, the methods and instruments for managing the bank’s currency risk are systematized. The bank’s currency risks are typed and the main determinants of their occurrence are identified. The types of currency risk hedging instruments are systematized and their contents are disclosed. The essence of the bank’s currency position, the methodology of its account are disclosed and the necessity of compliance with the methodology are substantiated. The main operations that influence the bank’s currency position are identified. An analytical assessment of the currency position of banks is performed (JSC CB «PrivatBank», JSC «Oschadbank», JSC «Raiffeisen Bank Aval», JSC «A-Bank»); the model of maximization of the bank’s profits is computed and appropriate conclusions about their activities are drawn. With the use of economic-mathematical instrumentarium the dynamics of the hryvnia currency exchange rate are forecasted and the indicators of VaR for banks (JSC CB «PrivatBank», JSC«Oschadbank», JSC «Raiffeisen Bank Aval», JSC «A-Bank») are calculated according to different time horizons. It is determined that the model of minimization of currency risk through currency position management serves as an effective instrument for analyzing and substantiating internal limits of currency risk and permissible ranges of changes in financial results of the bank’s activity. Prospects for further research are: 1) development of an instrumentarium for currency risk assessment based on ARCH and GARCH models of various modifications; 2) development of macro stress tests with a focus on currency risk and taking into account the systemic characteristic, which is the transmission of currency risk to other sectors of both the financial market and the economy.

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Lavreniuk, V. V., and D. Y. Lukianchuk. "Managing the Bank’s Currency Risk in the Face of Turbulence in Global Financial Markets." Business Inform 11, no. 514 (2020): 288–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2020-11-288-295.

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Анотація:

The article is aimed at researching the theoretical-methodological and practical aspects of the bank’s currency risk management. To solve the tasks set, the authors use general scientific and specific methods, in particular: logic-dialectical, mathematical and graphic. Based on generalization, analysis and comparison of different approaches, the methods and instruments for managing the bank’s currency risk are systematized. The bank’s currency risks are typed and the main determinants of their occurrence are identified. The types of currency risk hedging instruments are systematized and their contents are disclosed. The essence of the bank’s currency position, the methodology of its account are disclosed and the necessity of compliance with the methodology are substantiated. The main operations that influence the bank’s currency position are identified. An analytical assessment of the currency position of banks is performed (JSC CB «PrivatBank», JSC «Oschadbank», JSC «Raiffeisen Bank Aval», JSC «A-Bank»); the model of maximization of the bank’s profits is computed and appropriate conclusions about their activities are drawn. With the use of economic-mathematical instrumentarium the dynamics of the hryvnia currency exchange rate are forecasted and the indicators of VaR for banks (JSC CB «PrivatBank», JSC«Oschadbank», JSC «Raiffeisen Bank Aval», JSC «A-Bank») are calculated according to different time horizons. It is determined that the model of minimization of currency risk through currency position management serves as an effective instrument for analyzing and substantiating internal limits of currency risk and permissible ranges of changes in financial results of the bank’s activity. Prospects for further research are: 1) development of an instrumentarium for currency risk assessment based on ARCH and GARCH models of various modifications; 2) development of macro stress tests with a focus on currency risk and taking into account the systemic characteristic, which is the transmission of currency risk to other sectors of both the financial market and the economy.

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