Дисертації: "Decision gate"

1

Hallqvist, Stina, and Johanna Moström. "ABB Gate Model : En processledningsmetod för ABB:s produktutveckling." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Management and Economics, 2003. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-1901.

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Organisations tend to focus more and more on product and process development to increase their competitiveness. Several major organisations, among them ABB, have developed models aimed to more effectively control and manage product development processes. ABB is using its standardised model ABB Gate Model for this. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how the introduction of ABB Gate Model has affected the outcome of decisions and also the decision-making in the product development process. The study is limited to elucidate the version of ABB Gate Model handling product development projects. No deeper study is conducted regarding the information used or the criteria for the gate decisions; instead, the focus is to findelements in basis for the decision- making that have a greater significance for the outcome at some gate or at specific types of gate decisions. The empirical data of the thesis has to a great extent been collected through interviews with respondents from both of the studied units and also the unit in charge of the implementation and development of ABB Gate Model. The study shows that ABB Gate Model does not to any significant extent affect the outcome of the decisions in the product development projects. In general, the same decisions are made as before and projects are seldom cancelled. The foremost effects of ABB Gate Model at the units are: increased clarity and support to the operational work, improved co- ordination between the units functional departments, and contributed to make essential aspects of the product development projects visible and taken into consideration.

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2

Johansson, Christian. "Knowledge maturity as decision support in stage-gate product development : a case from the aerospace industry." Doctoral thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-12129.

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In today’s fast-paced industry where fight for market share is fierce and reaching the market ahead of competition imperative, product development is a target for lead-time reductions. In this context, in product development in stage-gate processes, decisions need to be made even though knowledge and information are scarce and flawed. The challenge is how to support the decisions that are made in light of uncertainty and ambiguity. The thesis moves from analysing the role of the stage-gate process within the aerospace industry. The stage-gate process was more than a decision making mechanism, and instead a mechanism that facilitated communication, discussion and knowledge sharing between team members, as well as supported knowledge creation and shaping of the boundaries between people’s different perceptions of the knowledge base. However, the communicative and negotiative function of the stage-gate was highly dependent on the ability of the participating individuals to reflect on the status and quality of the available knowledge assets used throughout the process. To make this reflective activity an explicit part of the stage-gate practice, this thesis proposes the application of a knowledge maturity concept at the gates to raise the decision makers’ awareness of the status of the knowledge assets handled at the decision point. The knowledge maturity concept considers three basic dimensions: input, method/tool and experience/expertise in assessing the knowledge base maturity. The scale is intended to act as a boundary object, facilitating the knowledge creation process by highlighting the current status of the knowledge base and making stakeholders aware of the nature of the project’s uncertainties and ambiguities. In the knowledge maturity concept, its purpose is to support design teams at the gates in taking appropriate action, mitigating risk and focusing their efforts on improving the knowledge assets where it is needed most, regarding the situation at hand and, finally, to make more confident decisions.The thesis was developed within the EU FP6 VIVACE (Value Improvement through a Virtual Aeronautical Collaborative Enterprise) and EU FP7 CRESCENDO (Collaborative and Robust Engineering using Simulation Capability Enabling Next Design Optimisation) projects, and within the Faste Laboratory, a VINNOVA Excellence Centre involving partners from the Swedish manufacturing industry.

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3

Badr, Bashar. "Implementation of decision trees for embedded systems." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2014. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/14711.

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This research work develops real-time incremental learning decision tree solutions suitable for real-time embedded systems by virtue of having both a defined memory requirement and an upper bound on the computation time per training vector. In addition, the work provides embedded systems with the capabilities of rapid processing and training of streamed data problems, and adopts electronic hardware solutions to improve the performance of the developed algorithm. Two novel decision tree approaches, namely the Multi-Dimensional Frequency Table (MDFT) and the Hashed Frequency Table Decision Tree (HFTDT) represent the core of this research work. Both methods successfully incorporate a frequency table technique to produce a complete decision tree. The MDFT and HFTDT learning methods were designed with the ability to generate application specific code for both training and classification purposes according to the requirements of the targeted application. The MDFT allows the memory architecture to be specified statically before learning takes place within a deterministic execution time. The HFTDT method is a development of the MDFT where a reduction in the memory requirements is achieved within a deterministic execution time. The HFTDT achieved low memory usage when compared to existing decision tree methods and hardware acceleration improved the performance by up to 10 times in terms of the execution time.

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4

Ramineni, Narahari. "Tree Restructuring Approach to Mapping Problem in Cellular Architecture FPGAS." PDXScholar, 1995. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/4914.

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This thesis presents a new technique for mapping combinational circuits to Fine-Grain Cellular-Architecture FPGAs. We represent the netlist as the binary tree with decision variables associated with each node of the tree. The functionality of the tree nodes is chosen based on the target FPGA architecture. The proposed tree restructuring algorithms preserve local connectivity and allow direct mapping of the trees to the cellular array, thus eliminating the traditional routing phase. Also, predictability of the signal delays is a very important advantage of the developed approach. The developed bus-assignment algorithm efficiently utilizes the medium distance routing resources (buses). The method is general and can be used for any Fine Grain CA-type FPGA. To demonstrate our techniques, ATMEL 6000 series FPGA was used as a target architecture. The area and delay comparison between our methods and commercial tools is presented using a set of MCNC benchmarks. Final layouts of the implemented designs are included. Results show that the proposed techniques outperform the available commercial tools for ATMEL 6000 FPGAs, both in area and delay optimization.

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5

Martins, Mayler Gama Alvarenga. "Funtional composition and applications." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/164440.

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Este trabalho apresenta a composição funcional (CF) como um novo paradigma para realização da síntese lógica de blocos combinacionais. CF usa uma abordagem ascendente para sintetizar funções Booleanas, sendo capaz de avaliar os custos das funções intermediárias e explorando dessa forma um grande número de combinações diferentes de funções candidatas. Há vantagens interessantes quando comparado à abordagem descendente da decomposição funcional. CF apresenta grande flexibilidade para criar algoritmos com resultados ótimos ou subótimos para diferentes aplicações. A estratégia proposta apresenta bons resultados para síntese de funções Booleanas visando diferentes tecnologias. CF é baseado nos seguintes princípios: (1) representação de funções lógicas como um par ligado com representações funcional e estrutural; (2) o algoritmo começa de um conjunto de funções iniciais; (3) funções mais simples são associadas para criar funções mais complexas; (4) existe uma ordem parcial que permite o uso da programação dinâmica; (5) um conjunto de funções permitidas pode ser mantido para reduzir o tempo de execução/consumo de memória. Este trabalho apresenta algoritmos de composição funcional para fatoração Booleana, incluindo fatoração ótima, fatoração considerando o operador OU-exclusivo, computação de cadeias mínimas de decisão e síntese de funções considerando somente portas lógicas majoritárias e inversores.
This work presents functional composition (FC) as a new paradigm for combinational logic synthesis. FC is a bottom-up approach to synthesize Boolean functions, being able to evaluate the cost of intermediate sub-functions, exploring a larger number of different candidate combinations. These are interesting advantages when compared to the top-down behavior of functional decomposition. FC presents great flexibility to implement algorithms with optimal or suboptimal results for different applications. The proposed strategy presents good results for the synthesis of Boolean functions targeting different technologies. FC is based on the following principles: (1) the representation of logic functions is done by a bonded pair of functional and structural representations; (2) the algorithm starts from a set of initial functions; (3) simpler functions are associated to create more complex ones; (4) there is a partial order, enabling dynamic programming; (5) a set of allowed functions can be used in order to reduce execution time/memory consumption. This work presents functional composition algorithms for Boolean factoring, including optimal factoring, Boolean factoring considering the exclusive-OR operator, minimum decision chain computation and synthesis of functions considering only majority and inverter logic gates.

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6

Suh, Sangwook. "Low-power discrete Fourier transform and soft-decision Viterbi decoder for OFDM receivers." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/42716.

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The purpose of this research is to present a low-power wireless communication receiver with an enhanced performance by relieving the system complexity and performance degradation imposed by a quantization process. With an overwhelming demand for more reliable communication systems, the complexity required for modern communication systems has been increased accordingly. A byproduct of this increase in complexity is a commensurate increase in power consumption of the systems. Since the Shannon's era, the main stream of the methodologies for promising the high reliability of communication systems has been based on the principle that the information signals flowing through the system are represented in digits. Consequently, the system itself has been heavily driven to be implemented with digital circuits, which is generally beneficial over analog implementations when digitally stored information is locally accessible, such as in memory systems. However, in communication systems, a receiver does not have a direct access to the originally transmitted information. Since the received signals from a noisy channel are already continuous values with continuous probability distributions, we suggest a mixed-signal system in which the received continuous signals are directly fed into the analog demodulator and the subsequent soft-decision Viterbi decoder without any quantization involved. In this way, we claim that redundant system complexity caused by the quantization process is eliminated, thus gives better power efficiency in wireless communication systems, especially for battery-powered mobile devices. This is also beneficial from a performance perspective, as it takes full advantage of the soft information flowing through the system.

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7

Koh, Alex. "Hybrid Gates approach for R and D product portfolio management." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2012. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/hybrid-gates-approach-for-r-and-d-product-portfolio-management(90c240c2-f7a4-463f-a2fb-75498cbbcf6a).html.

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Companies today are aggressively finding ways to improve top-line growth by introducing innovative products faster to the market. To achieve both innovation and accelerated rollout, many are turning to techniques such as Stage Gate approaches to improve engineering and marketing collaborations to clarify short term resource allocations (day to day plan with employee assignment). While Stage Gate approaches have been shown to result in better project coordination and faster time to market by doing projects right, research also indicates the need to ensure alignment to company strategy by doing the right projects within the allocated annual budget through medium term (rough cut capacity plan with employee requirements) and long term resource allocations (business / strategic plan with funding requirements). Today, such medium to long term resource allocation methodologies tend to be broadly consolidated under Research and Development (R&D) product portfolio management. We argue that there is value in a philosophical change in viewing R&D product portfolio management from the context of (1.) long and medium term resource allocation phases separately, (2.) focusing on the overlapping regions between long and medium term and between medium and short term resource allocation phases and (3.) the evolving resource allocation perspective (monetary to headcount to skillset) through these phases. Cooper et al note that for R&D product portfolio management and the Stage Gate process to work together, one can expect one of two scenarios - a gates dominated approach (where the prioritization and resource decisions are made at short term focused Stage Gates) or a portfolio reviews dominated approach (where the prioritization and resource decisions are made at the long term focused portfolio reviews). We propose that with appropriate focus given to the medium term phase, a third approach that we call a Hybrid Gates approach can exist in a "gates dominated" environment. A case study on Freescale Semiconductor was used as an empirical inquiry to gain deeper understanding on the perceived value of this approach within a real-life context. Triangulating between structured surveys, unstructured surveys, and focused interviews; we were able to show perceived value to the organization in the following areas: (1.) Enhancing the understanding of decision maker's decision and solution spaces, (2.) Clarifying strategic expressions and "stress testing" new strategies, (3.) Improving horizontal and vertical communication within the organization and (4.) Aiding in objectivity in R&D investment allocation. Furthermore, we were able to conceptually show how this approach retains the advantages of the gates dominated and portfolio dominated approaches while minimizing their respective weaknesses. This research is novel and unique as we have not found any research literature that focuses on a Hybrid Gates approach perspective or studies where the implementation of MO-ZOLP is: (1.) this large in scale and (2.) designed specifically to support a Stage Gate dominated environment. We believe that this research contributes to the practising educator and researcher by providing them with an alternative approach on R&D project portfolio management in complex organizations that are using a Stage Gate process. We also believe that this research is valuable to the practitioner by providing them with a practical process and methodology in which change management for such activities can be achieved. In addition, we assessed the on-going value added to the organization, thus linking theory to practice and finally, to outcome.

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8

Dauberman, Jamie. "Making decisions about screening cargo containers for nuclear threats using decision analysis and optimization." VCU Scholars Compass, 2010. http://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd/2240.

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One of the most pressing concerns in homeland security is the illegal passing of weapons-grade nuclear material through the borders of the United States. If terrorists can gather the materials needed to construct a nuclear bomb or radiological dispersion device (RDD, i.e., dirty bomb) while inside the United States, the consequences would be devastating. Preventing plutonium, highly enriched uranium (HEU), tritium gas or other materials that can be used to construct a nuclear weapon from illegally entering the United States is an area of vital concern. There are enormous economic consequences when our nation's port security system is compromised. Interdicting nuclear material being smuggled into the United States on cargo containers is an issue of vital national interest, since it is a critical aspect of protecting the United States from nuclear attacks. However, the efforts made to prevent nuclear material from entering the United States via cargo containers have been disjoint, piecemeal, and reactive, not the result of coordinated, systematic planning and analysis. Our economic well-being is intrinsically linked with the success and security of the international trade system. International trade accounts for more than thirty percent of the United States economy (Rooney, 2005). Ninety-five percent of international goods that enter the United States come through one of 361 ports, adding up to more than 11.4 million containers every year (Fritelli, 2005; Rooney, 2005; US DOT, 2007). Port security has emerged as a critically important yet vulnerable component in the homeland security system. Applying game theoretic methods to counterterrorism provides a structured technique for defenders to analyzing the way adversaries will interact under different circumstances and scenarios. This way of thinking is somewhat counterintuitive, but is an extremely useful tool in analyzing potential strategies for defenders. Decision analysis can handle very large and complex problems by integrating multiple perspectives and providing a structured process in evaluating preferences and values from the individuals involved. The process can still ensure that the decision still focuses on achieving the fundamental objectives. In the decision analysis process value tradeoffs are evaluated to review alternatives and attitudes to risk can be quantified to help the decision maker understand what aspects of the problem are not under their control. Most of all decision analysis provides insight that may not have been captured or fully understood if decision analysis was not incorporated into the decision making process. All of these factors make decision analysis essentially to making an informed decision. Game theory and decision analysis both play important roles in counterterrorism efforts. However, they both have their weaknesses. Decision analysis techniques such as probabilistic risk analysis can provide incorrect assessments of risk when modeling intelligent adversaries as uncertain hazards. Game theory analysis also has limitations. For example when analyzing a terrorist or terrorist group using game theory we can only take into consideration one aspect of the problem to optimize at a time. Meaning the analysis is either analyzing the problem from the defenders perspective or from the attacker’s perspective. Parnell et al. (2009) was able to develop a model that simultaneously maximizes the effects of the terrorist and minimizes the consequences for the defender. The question this thesis aims to answer is whether investing in new detector technology for screening cargo containers is a worthwhile investment for protecting our country from a terrorist attack. This thesis introduces an intelligent adversary risk analysis model for determining whether to use new radiological screening technologies at our nation’s ports. This technique provides a more realistic risk assessment of the true situation being modeled and determines whether it is cost effective for our country to invest in new cargo container screening technology. The optimal decision determined by our model is for the United States to invest in a new detector, and for the terrorists to choose agent cobalt-60, shown in Figure 18. This is mainly due to the prominence of false alarms and the high costs associated with screening all of these false alarms, and we assume for every cargo container that sounds an alarm, that container is physically inspected. With the new detector technology the prominence of false alarms decreases and the true alarm rate increases, the cost savings associated with this change in the new technology outweighs the cost of technical success or failure. Since the United States is attempting to minimize their expected cost per container, the optimal choice is to invest in the new detector. Our intelligent adversary risk analysis model can simultaneously determine the best decision for the United States, who is trying to minimize the expected cost, and the terrorist, who is trying to maximize the expected cost to the United States. Simultaneously modeling the decisions of the defender and attacker provides a more accurate picture of reality and could provide important insights to the real situation that may have been missed with other techniques. The model is extremely sensitive to certain inputs and parameters, even though the values are in line with what is available in the literature, it is important to understand the sensitivities. Two inputs that were found to be particularly important are the expected cost for physically inspecting a cargo container, and the cost of implementing the technology needed for the new screening device. Using this model the decision maker can construct more accurate judgments based on the true situation. This increase in accuracy could save lives with the decisions being made. The model can also help the decision maker understand the interdependencies of the model and visually see how his resource allocations affect the optimal decisions of the defender and the attacker.

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9

Avanesyan, Galina. "Decision making in Ultimatum Game." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-197616.

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The aim of this work is to show that even people who outwardly demonstrate irrational behaviour are actually rational. The only reason why their actions deviate from theoretical rational behaviour is given by different utility functions. Ultimatum game with its easy rules represents a great way to show deviations between human and rational behaviours. The model described in the thesis focuses on Responder's decision making, which is influenced not only by maximization of pure economical profit but also by many other factors, which are summed in the model in one variable -- attitude to fairness. It is shown how this variable can be predicted using decisions obtained from a multi-round Ultimatum game. To prove that humans behave in accordance with their own preferences, the modelled game does not only estimate players' attitudes to fairness but also predicts players' following actions using knowledge of estimated values.

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10

Vasconcelos, Carlos Pontes de. "O Processo da Tomada de Decisão e os seus efeitos num contexto escolar." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/12806.

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Dissertação de Mestrado em Administração Pública na especialização de Administração da Educação
O processo de tomada de decisão no seio das organizações e a definição das estratégias constituem desde sempre um dos maiores desafios para a Administração Pública, sobretudo se se considerar a forma cada vez mais rápida como a realidade se altera. Este processo é ainda mais exigente se for tido em conta a crescente necessidade das entidades públicas pautarem a sua atividade, por níveis de eficiência cada vez maiores. É com este pano de fundo que o presente estudo procura analisar a forma da tomada de decisão, no seio da comunidade escolar e medir o alcance dos seus efeitos. Estes efeitos não se cingem apenas à realidade educativa das escolas, na medida em que, sendo a escola uma importante parcela da comunidade é também sobre esta, que se produzem alterações. Para este enquadramento foi importante integrar a realidade Escola no meio onde existem outras instituições de ensino num contexto onde as instituições passaram a se reger segundo uma realidade concorrencial e nesta perspetiva, foi importante estuda-la com recurso à Teoria dos Jogos. Como opções metodológicas, a investigação adota o estudo caso e, nesse ambiente, recorre por um lado à análise documental no contexto escolar e, por outro, ao estudo estatístico como forma de relacionar variáveis e verificar hipóteses. O estudo aponta, como consequência da tomada de decisão, não apenas alterações sobre a realidade escolar, mas também sobre a realidade social envolvente.
One of the major challenges for Public Administration has always been the adoption within its various institutions of decision making processes that lead to optimal decision making and the design and implementation of effective strategies. Decision making in the Public Administration is perhaps more complex and demanding nowadays than it has ever been. This is not only because reality changes at a very fast pace, but also because of the increasing pressure put on public institutions to become more efficient. Having this context as background, the present study discusses decision making within schools, analyses one particular decision made by one school and carefully measures its implications. The study follows the Case Study method approach. The research done is based both on documental analysis and on statistical analysis as a way of finding associations between variables and testing hypothesis. Because the decision considered in the study is made in a situation where more than one school serves the same community and schools compete for students, Game Theory considerations are also used in the analysis of the decision. The study suggests that decisions made by one school may have unintended negative consequences for that school. It also suggests that such decisions may also have implications for the way competing schools interact and for the community that they serve.
N/A

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11

Roberts, Ian D. "Acetaminophen's Effects on Social Economic Decision-Making." The Ohio State University, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1500554272571145.

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12

Chang, Yanling. "A leader-follower partially observed Markov game." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/54407.

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The intent of this dissertation is to generate a set of non-dominated finite-memory policies from which one of two agents (the leader) can select a most preferred policy to control a dynamic system that is also affected by the control decisions of the other agent (the follower). The problem is described by an infinite horizon total discounted reward, partially observed Markov game (POMG). Each agent’s policy assumes that the agent knows its current and recent state values, its recent actions, and the current and recent possibly inaccurate observations of the other agent’s state. For each candidate finite-memory leader policy, we assume the follower, fully aware of the leader policy, determines a policy that optimizes the follower’s criterion. The leader-follower assumption allows the POMG to be transformed into a specially structured, partially observed Markov decision process that we use to determine the follower’s best response policy for a given leader policy. We then present a value determination procedure to evaluate the performance of the leader for a given leader policy, based on which non-dominated set of leader polices can be selected by existing heuristic approaches. We then analyze how the value of the leader’s criterion changes due to changes in the leader’s quality of observation of the follower. We give conditions that insure improved observation quality will improve the leader’s value function, assuming that changes in the observation quality do not cause the follower to change its policy. We show that discontinuities in the value of the leader’ criterion, as a function of observation quality, can occur when the change of observation quality is significant enough for the follower to change its policy. We present conditions that determine when a discontinuity may occur and conditions that guarantee a discontinuity will not degrade the leader’s performance. This framework has been used to develop a dynamic risk analysis approach for U.S. food supply chains and to compare and create supply chain designs and sequential control strategies for risk mitigation.

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13

Cardella, Eric. "An Investigation of Behavioral Influences in Strategic Decision Making." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/222632.

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In this dissertation, I study the impact of behavioral influences on strategic economic decision making in three essays.The first essay explores the interpersonal implications of guilt aversion in strategic settings. In doing so, I first introduce a stylized 2-player game where one players has an opportunity to induce guilt upon the other player in a manner derived from findings in the psychology literature. I then develop an experimental design, centered around this game, that allows me to test (i) whether agents attempt to induce guilt upon others in self-serving ways, (ii) whether agents are susceptible to the guilt induction of others, and (iii) whether agents are more trusting when they have an opportunity to induce guilt upon others. Furthermore, I theoretically show, via an application of the Battigalli and Dufwenberg (2007) model of simple guilt, that effective guilt induction can be supported as an equilibrium of the game considered.In the second essay, I explore the influence of posted price fairness concerns in bilateral negotiation settings. In doing so, I propose a price fairness model where, in addition to their material payoff, buyers receive disutility from engaging in negotiations, and aggressively negotiating, when the price is fair. As a result, the model predicts that buyers will negotiate less aggressively and possibly even forgo profitable negotiations when the posted price is fair, which is consistent with prior survey evidence on negotiation behavior. I also include a thorough discussion of the differences between the price fairness model and main alternative approaches to modeling fairness that exists in the literature.In the third essay, I experimentally investigate how the decision making quality of an agent's opponent influences learning in strategic games. In particular, I test whether learning-by-doing and learning-by-observing become more effective in games when agents face an optimal decision making opponent. To test these hypotheses, I propose a novel experimental design that enables me to measure strategic decision making quality and control the decision making quality of the opponent.

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14

BAZ, ABDULLAH. "AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE DECISION MAKING AT INTERSECTION USING GAME THEORY." University of Akron / OhioLINK, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1530541445631072.

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15

Paiva, Jonas Alves de. "Application of decision theory to solve game theory problems." Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 2012. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/10817.

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Submitted by João Arthur Martins (joao.arthur@ufpe.br) on 2015-03-05T17:29:44Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) jap.pdf: 1375239 bytes, checksum: 91cf6bfce74a9d8f6396af2256a135af (MD5)
Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T17:29:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) jap.pdf: 1375239 bytes, checksum: 91cf6bfce74a9d8f6396af2256a135af (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012
Os problemas de decisão enfrentados atualmente são bastante complexos devido ao grande número de variáveis que devem consideradas na construção dos modelos. Atualmente os tomadores de decisão se utilizam de duas teorias diretamente interligadas conceitualmente, a Teoria da Decisão e a Teoria dos Jogos que o ajudam a escolher uma ação ou conjunto de ações disponíveis, no intuito de maximizar sua utilidade esperada. A primeira teoria usa uma caraterização profunda dos elementos estatísticos os que atuam em um problema de decisão, enquanto que a Teoria dos Jogos analisa as interações entre os agentes, quando a ação de um afeta diretamente o resultado dos demais. Analisar a metodologia de tomada de decisão na Teoria dos Jogos como uma aplicação da Teoria da Decisão foi o principal propósito deste trabalho. Este propósito foi alcançado pelo estabelecimento das relações entre os elementos que compõem a estrutura das duas teorias e da definição de um algoritmo de resolução sando Teoria da Decisão para resolver problemas de Teoria dos Jogos. Depois partiu-se para a aplicação deste algoritmo para resolução de problemas de jogos simultâneos e sequenciais de dois jogadores, om estratégias puras, mistas e jogos de informação in completa. P de-se constatar que a metodologia da Teoria da De são alcançados mesmos resultados da análise feita pela Teoria dos Jogos. Este resultado reforça o fato de que estas duas teorias trabalham sobre os mesmos princípios e que a relação entre estas é mais imbricada do que se imagina. No aso usando Teoria da Decisão deve-se fazer ajustes na forma de analise para considerar a racionalidade e a interação entre os agentes.

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16

Stauffer, Griffin K. "Design-build vs design-bid-build a procurement method selection framework." Thesis, (8 MB), 2006. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA471905.

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Thesis (M.S. in Civil Engineering)--Purdue University, 2006.
"August 2006." Description based on title screen as viewed on June 9, 2010. DTIC Descriptor(s): Decision Making, Construction, Game Theory, Procurement, Models, Facilities, Standards, Selection. DTIC Identifier(s): Construction Projects, Utility Theory, Thresholds, Frameworks, Procurement Criteria, Project Delivery, Procurement Methods, DB (Design-Build), DBB (Design-Bid-Build) Includes bibliographical references (leaves 31-32). Also available in print.

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17

Briceño, Simón Ignacio. "A game-based decision support methodology for competitive systems design." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/26671.

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This dissertation describes the development of a game-based methodology that facilitates the exploration and selection of research and development (R&D) projects under uncertain competitive scenarios. The proposed method provides an approach that analyzes competitor positioning and formulates response strategies to forecast the impact of technical design choices on a project's market performance. A critical decision in the conceptual design phase of propulsion systems is the selection of the best architecture, centerline, core size, and technology portfolio. A key objective of this research is to examine how firm characteristics such as their relative differences in completing R&D projects, differences in the degree of substitutability between different project types, and first/second-mover advantages affect their product development strategies. Several quantitative methods are investigated that analyze business and engineering strategies concurrently. In particular, formulations based on the well-established mathematical field of game theory are introduced to obtain insights into the project selection problem. The use of game theory is explored in this research as a method to assist the selection process of R&D projects in the presence of imperfect market information. The proposed methodology focuses on two influential factors: the schedule uncertainty of project completion times and the uncertainty associated with competitive reactions. A normal-form matrix is created to enumerate players, their moves and payoffs, and to formulate a process by which an optimal decision can be achieved. The non-cooperative model is tested using the concept of a Nash equilibrium to identify potential strategies that are robust to uncertain market fluctuations (e.g: uncertainty in airline demand, airframe requirements and competitor positioning). A first/second-mover advantage parameter is used as a scenario dial to adjust market rewards and firms' payoffs. The methodology is applied to a commercial aircraft engine selection study where engine firms must select an optimal engine project for development. An engine modeling and simulation framework is developed to generate a broad engine project portfolio. The proposed study demonstrates that within a technical design environment, a rational and analytical means of modeling project development strategies is beneficial in high market risk situations.

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18

Zou, Ming. "Industrial Decision Support System with Assistance of 3D Game Engine." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Institutionen för datalogi och datorsystemteknik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-2082.

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Context. Industrial Decision Support System(DSS) traditionally relies on 2D approach to visualize the scenarios. For some abstract information, like chronological sequence of tasks or data trend, it provides a good visualization. For concrete information, such as location and spatial relationships, 2D visualizations are too abstract. Techniques from Game design, 3D modeling, virtual reality(VR) and animation provides many inspiration to develop a DSS tools for industrial applications. Objectives. The work in our research was to develop a unique prototype for data visualization in wind power systems, and compare it with traditional ones. The product combined 3D VR, 2D graphics, user navigation, and Human Machine Interaction(HMI). It was developed with a game engine, Unity3D. The study explored how much usability can be improved when using applied gamificaion 3D approaches in industrial monitoring and control systems. Methods. The research methods included Literature Review, Commercial Example Analysis, Development, and Evaluation. In the evaluation phase, Systematic Usability Scale(SUS) tests were performed with two independent groups, the testing results were analyzed with statistical method, t-test. Results. The evaluation results showed that an interface developed with 3D virtual reality can provide better usability(include learnability) than traditional 2D industrial interface in wind power system. The difference between them is significant. Conclusions. The study indicates that, compared with the traditional 2D interfaces, the gamification 3D approach in industrial DSS can provide user more comprehensive information visualization, better usability and learnability . It also gives more effective interactions to enhance the user experience.
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19

Briceñ̃o, Simón Ignacio. "A game-based decision support methodology for competitive systems design." Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/26671.

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Thesis (Ph.D)--Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009.
Committee Chair: Mavris, Dimitri; Committee Member: Hollingsworth, Peter; Committee Member: Kavadias, Stylianos; Committee Member: Schrage, Daniel; Committee Member: Volovoi, Vitali. Part of the SMARTech Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Collection.

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20

Andreasson, Emma. "Excelling at new products : A Business Case development and Portfolio Management study." Thesis, Högskolan i Borås, Akademin för textil, teknik och ekonomi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-15581.

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The thesis work aimed at developing a framework for portfolio management and business case development that can be used as decision support for a company for new product development. The assignment was to study relevant literature resulting in an aggregated view on this topic and the parameters that impact successful product development. The literature involves project initiation, different levels of product innovation development and information about important research criteria to include when forming new product projects ideas. This information helps to support how to objectively evaluate and compare product projects. The literature also involves different relevant tools to use for providing information and manage product portfolio management along with their benefits. Out of this aggregated view, a template and suggested decision model specific for the company has been established. The resulting template has for purpose to be used for preparation of providing a solid information base when a new product project idea is to be presented. The decision base has the purpose to help the members and managers in the product council to form a decision on what product idea to proceed with, which hopefully will result into launch and success. The framework aims to assess individual product development initiatives as well as managing the product portfolio aspect. Except the study of a considerable amount of literature, qualitative research has been made as well. The qualitative research has been performed in the form of semi-structured interviews together with people within the company that has been used as case study in this report. The interviews contributes with information about the current state of the company’s product offering process together with attention paid for what is missing and what improvements that is sought. In such way, the qualitative research contribute to the result of the framework in the sense that it is attributed towards the company in the case study and thus slightly towards technological network industries, although the framework is made for a generic use. As by this thesis, the framework focus on one company, but it has for purpose to be adaptable and inspiring for any company with respect for the individual company’s restrictions.

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Souza, Silvânio Batista de. "Efeito do comportamento disfuncional sobre a confiança entre decisores utilizando trust game." Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, 2012. http://tede.mackenzie.br/jspui/handle/tede/895.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:32:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Silvanio Batista de Sousa.pdf: 2248146 bytes, checksum: 53eaaddd8845b73159fdf8df908cc1f1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-01-31
Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa
Understanding the relationship between dysfunctional behavior and confidence of managers in management is essential, as these factors may adversely affect the results and performance of businesses and undermine the organizational climate. The objective of this study was to understand the relationship between these two aspects, reliability and dysfunctional behavior. These results demonstrated that the presence of dysfunctional behavior affects the decision confidence of managers in management and was also verified that different than expected in theory the wages received not exerted great influence on the decisions taken by the subjects. A possible cause of this difference between the results obtained and the theory may be that the present study have extended the results of the task of Zhang (2008) from single period to multiple periods creating social ties among individuals, in addition, the test sample belongs to called generation Y, which has different values from those included in the theories and this is an issue that can be studied in future research. Besides worrying about the negative aspects of dysfunctional behavior, companies should be alert to the career expectations of generation Y, who will soon assume positions of leadership, because this generation is concerned with values other than the main salary, as free time , establishing lasting relationships with coworkers and with a good organizational climate.
Compreender a relação entre comportamento disfuncional e a confiança dos gestores na administração da empresa é fundamental, pois estes fatores podem afetar negativamente os resultados e desempenho das empresas e prejudicar o clima organizacional. O objetivo deste estudo foi compreender a relação entre estes dois aspectos, confiança e comportamento disfuncional. Os resultados deste trabalho demonstraram que a presença de comportamento disfuncional afeta a decisão de confiança dos gestores na administração da empresa e também foi possível verificar que diferente do esperado na teoria o salário recebido não exerceu grande influência nas decisões tomadas pelos sujeitos. Uma possível causa deste desvio entre os resultados obtidos e a teoria pode ser o fato da presente pesquisa ter estendido os resultados da tarefa de Zhang (2008) de período único para múltiplos períodos criando laços sociais entre os sujeitos, além disso, a amostra testada pertence a chamada geração Y, que possui valores diferentes dos preconizados nas teorias e este é um assunto que pode ser estudado em futuras pesquisas. Além de se preocuparem com os aspectos negativos do comportamento disfuncional, as empresas devem estar atentas às expectativas de carreira da geração Y, que em breve irá assumir cargos de liderança, pois esta geração está preocupada com outros valores além da remuneração principal, como tempo livre, estabelecimento de relações duradouras com os colegas de trabalho e com um bom clima organizacional.

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22

Poonnawat, Waranya. "A framework for teaching decision support using a business simulation game." Thesis, University of the West of Scotland, 2017. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.763529.

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23

Haddock, Janet Elaine. "Environment-related decision making : an examination of the GATT/WTO process /." Thesis, Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1998. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B20272029.

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24

Wang, Jiaxi. "Age Differences In Economic Decisions: A New Ultimatum Game." Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1372532918.

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25

Costa-Gomes, Miguel A. "Essays on behavior and cognition in experimental game theory /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 1998. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p9907666.

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26

Booker, Carolyn. "Playing the rankings game : a game theoretic decision model using Data Envelopment Analysis evaluated for university league tables." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2013. http://oleg.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=23198.

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The purpose of this research is to examine trade-offs and conflicts between performance measures in the UK Higher Education sector. The performance measures under consideration are those which are imposed on a university from outside, such as statutory performance indicators and newspaper league tables, and which bring rewards in the form of either status or funding. The existing literature provides evidence that such measures are causing tension within institutions, but there has to date been no attempt to examine that tension using the tools of management science. The main tool used here is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). A new DEA model has been developed which extends a trade-off model to incorporate a weighted preference structure. This model is used first to determine the production possibility set for a group of Higher Education Institutions and then to explore the options open to them. In many kinds of performance measurement system the reward achieved by an HEI, such as a "top ten" position or a share of a fixed amount of funding, depends not only on that institution's own decisions but also on the strategic decisions of others. Game Theory provides a range of structures which model such interactive decisions and can aid a decision-maker in determining optimal strategies. The results of the DEA model are therefore processed using a typical league table construction and then evaluated through the lens of Game Theory. The analytical framework developed in this thesis has the potential for application in other educational and social contexts where external performance measures are known or suspected to have an influence on decision-making. The DEA model can additionally be used outwith this framework in any context where it is desirable to permit selective target-setting and to accommodate value judgments in the specification of the production possibility set.

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27

Johansson, Alexander. "Strategic Decision-Making in Platoon Coordination." Licentiate thesis, KTH, Reglerteknik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-275670.

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The need for sustainable transportation solutions is urgent as the demand for mobility of goods and people is expected to multiply in the upcoming decades. One promising solution is truck platooning, which shows great potential in reducing the fuel consumption and operational costs of trucks. In order to utilize the benefits of truck platooning to the fullest, trucks with different routes in a transportation network need coordination to efficiently meet and form platoons. This thesis addresses platoon coordination when trucks form platoons at hubs, where some trucks need to wait for others in order to meet, and there is a reward for platooning and a cost for waiting. Three contributions on the topic platoon coordination are presented in this thesis. In the first contribution, we consider platoon coordination among trucks that have pre-defined routes in a network of hubs, and the travel times are either deterministic or stochastic. The trucks are owned by competing transportation companies, and each truck decides on its waiting times at hubs in order to optimize its own operational cost. We consider a group of trucks to form a platoon if it departs from a hub and enters the road at the same time. The strategic interaction among trucks when they coordinate for platooning is modeled by non-cooperative game theory, and the Nash equilibrium is considered as the solution concept when the trucks make their decisions at the beginning of their journeys. In case of stochastic travel times, we also develop feedback-based solutions wherein trucks repeatedly update their decisions. We show in a simulation study of the Swedish transportation network that the feedback-based solutions achieve platooning rates up to 60 %. In the second contribution, we propose models for sharing the platooning profit among platoon members. The platooning benefit is not equal for all trucks in a platoon; typically, the lead truck benefits less than its followers. The incentive for transportation companies to cooperate in platooning may be low unless the profit is shared. We formulate platoon coordination games based on profit-sharing models, and in a simulation of a single hub, the outcomes of the platoon coordination games are evaluated. The evaluation shows that the total profit achieved when the trucks aim to maximize their own profits, but the platooning benefit is evened out among platoon members, is nearly as high as when each truck aims to maximize the total profit in the platooning system. In the last contribution, we study a problem where trucks arrive to a hub according to a stochastic arrival process. The trucks do not share a priori information about their arrivals; this may be sensitive information to share with others. A coordinator decides, based on the statistical distribution of arrivals, when to release the trucks at the hub in the form of a platoon. Under the assumption that the arrivals are independent and identically distributed, we show that it is optimal to release the trucks at the hub when the number of trucks exceeds a certain threshold. This contribution shows that simple and dynamic coordination approaches can obtain a high profit from platooning, even under high uncertainty and limited a priori information.
Under de kommande decennierna förväntas efterfrågan på transport av varor och passagerare mångfaldigas, vilket innebär att behovet av hållbara transportlösningar är brådskande. En lovande lösning är konvojkörning, som visar stor potential att minska bränsleförbrukningen och driftskostnaderna för lastbilar. För att utnyttja fördelarna med konvojkörning till fullo behöver lastbilar koordineras för att effektivt mötas och bilda konvojer. Den här avhandlingen behandlar koordinering av lastbilar som kan bilda konvojer på transporthubbar, där vissa lastbilar måste vänta på andra lastbilar för att bilda konvojer, och det finns en belöning för konvojkörning och en kostnad för att vänta. Tre bidrag som behandlar konvojkoordinering presenteras i den här avhandlingen. Det första bidraget behandlar koordinering av lastbilar med förutbestämda rutter i ett transportnätverk med deterministiska eller stokastiska restider. Lastbilarna ägs av konkurrerande transportföretag, och varje lastbil beslutar om sina väntetider på hubbarna längs med sin rutt för att optimera sin driftskostnad. Vi antar att lastbilar bildar en konvoj om de avgår från en hubb och kör in på vägen samtidigt. Den strategiska interaktionen mellan lastbilar när de koordinerar för konvojbildning modelleras med icke-kooperativ spelteori, och vi betraktar Nashjämvikt som lösningskoncept när lastbilarna beslutar om sina väntetider i början av sina resor. I fallet med stokastiska restider utvecklar vi även lösningar där lastbilarna tillåts uppdatera sina väntetider längs med sina resor. I en simuleringsstudie över det svenska transportnätverket visas att när lastbilarna tillåts uppdatera sina väntetider uppnås en konjovkörningsgrad på 60%. I det andra bidraget utreds modeller för att dela på vinsten från konvojkörning. Fördelarna med konvojkörning är inte lika för alla lastbilar i en konvoj; vanligtvis är fördelen större för följarlastbilarna än för ledarlastbilen. Således kan incitamenten för transportföretag att samarbeta i form av konvojkörning vara låga om inte vinsterna från konvojkörning delas. Baserat på vinstdelningsmodeller formulerar vi konvojkoordineringsspel. I en simulering av en transporthubb utvärderar vi utfallet från konvojkoordinationsspelen. Det visar sig att den totala vinsten som uppnås när lastbilarna försöker maximera sina egna vinster, men vinsten från konvojkörning jämnas ut helt bland konvojmedlemmar, är nästan lika hög som när varje lastbil försöker att maximera den totala vinsten i systemet. I det sista bidraget studeras ett koordineringsproblem där lastbilar anländer till en transporthubb enligt en stokastisk ankomstprocess. Lastbilarna delar inte förhandsinformation om sina ankomster; detta kan vara känslig information att dela. En koordinator bestämmer, baserat på den statistiska sannolikhetsfördelningen av ankomster, när lastbilarna på transporthubben ska släppas iväg i form av en konvoj. Under antagandet att ankomsterna är statistiskt oberoende och likafördelade, visar vi att det är optimalt att släppa iväg lastbilarna från transporthubben i form av en konvoj när antalet lastbilar överskrider en viss tröskel. Detta bidrag visar att enkla och dynamiska koordineringsmetoder kan erhålla en hög vinst från konvojkörning, även under hög osäkerhet och begränsad förhandsinformation.

Länk till den offentliga granskningen tillkännages via: https://www.kth.se/profile/alexjoha

QC 20200609

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28

Marsh, Christopher D. "Counter piracy a repeated game with asymmetric information." Thesis, Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate School, 2009. http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2009/Sep/09Sep%5FMarsh.pdf.

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Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2009.
Thesis Advisor(s): Lin, Kyle Y. "September 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on 5 November 2009. Author(s) subject terms: Piracy, game theory, Bayesian update. Includes bibliographical references (p. 37-38). Also available in print.

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29

King, Andrew Stephen. "Staying ahead of the game : a framework for effective aquaculture decision-making." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/12011.

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Globally, Atlantic salmon aquaculture is faced with a critical challenge: How best to deliver long-term sustainable growth, whilst optimising the opportunity for the expansion of the industry presented by an increasing global seafood demand? The thesis presents a novel framework of complementary decision support approaches to enable decision-makers to better understand the factors influencing aquaculture development, and examine alternative production (growout) technologies that more effectively address the challenges associated with intensification and expansion. The framework was developed through a combination of fieldwork (international data-gathering), key stakeholder discussions, and the application of targeted qualitative and quantitative analytical approaches; using the Tasmanian industry as a Case Study. The initial research focused on shorter-term (tactical) decision support. A situational analysis defined the business environment, and appraised viable expansion options (offshore, closed-containment and extractive bio-remediation). An economic analysis of selected options then provided a comparison of financial performance and risk. The outputs of this initial component next informed strategic decision-making approaches; employing scenario analysis to explore plausible strategies for the adoption of land-based recirculating aquaculture systems; and qualitative modelling to understand the causal dynamics driving and regulating the industry, and their impact on technology selection. Whilst it was clear that business economic viability is paramount, the results suggested that societal acceptance (the Social License to operate) is playing an increasingly important role in influencing business decisions. There is no single ‘right' technological solution; social acceptance, in particular considerations regarding human wellbeing, trust, and animal welfare concerns, will shape the business environment and therefore technology selection. The research emphasised the importance of employing a balance of tactical and strategic decision-making techniques, and of engaging with a broad range of industry stakeholders. It also highlighted the complexity and dynamic nature of the industry and that key variances (economic, regional, strategic, technological, and temporal) must be included in decision-making.

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Hadjiyiannis, Michael Jason. "Decision under uncertainty : problems in control theory, robust optimization and game theory." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/24965.

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Decision making under uncertainty is a widely-studied area spanning a number of fields such as computational optimization, control theory, utility theory and game theory. A typical problem of decision making under uncertainty requires the design of an optimal decision rule, control policy, or behavioural function, that takes into account all available information regarding the uncertain parameters and returns the decision that is most suitable for the given objective. A popular requirement is to determine robust decisions that maintain certain desired characteristics despite the presence of uncertainty. In this thesis, we study three distinct problems that involve the design of robust decisions under different types of uncertainty. We investigate a dynamic multi-stage control problem with stochastic exogenous uncertainty, a dynamic two-stage robust optimization problem with epistemic exogenous uncertainty, and finally a game theoretic problem with both stochastic endogenous and epistemic exogenous uncertainty. Specifically, a) we develop an efficient algorithm that bounds the performance loss of affine policies operating in discrete-time, finite-horizon, stochastic systems with expected quadratic costs and mixed linear state and input constraints. Finding the optimal control policy for such problems is generally computationally intractable, but suboptimal policies can be computed by restricting the class of admissible policies to be affine on the observation. Our algorithm provides an estimate of the loss of optimality due to the use of such affine policies, and it is based on a novel dualization technique, where the dual variables are restricted to have an affine structure; b) we develop an efficient algorithm to bound the suboptimality of linear decision rules in two-stage dynamic linear robust optimization problems, where they have been shown to suffer a worst-case performance loss of the order $\Omega(\sqrt{m})$ for problems with $m$ linear constraints. Our algorithm is based on a scenario selection technique, where the original problem is evaluated only over a finite subset of the possible uncertain parameters. This set is constructed from the Lagrange multipliers associated with the computation of the linear adaptive decision rules. The resulting instance-wise bounds outperform known bounds, including the aforementioned worst-case bound, in the vast majority of problem instances; c) we develop an algorithm that enumerates all behavioural functions that are at equilibrium in a game where players face epistemic uncertainty regarding their opponent's utility functions. Traditionally, these games are solved as complete-information games where players are assumed to be risk-neutral, with a utility function that is positively affine in the monetary payoffs. We demonstrate that this assumption imposes severe limitations on the problem structure, and we propose that these games should be formulated as incomplete private information games where each player may have any increasing or increasing concave utility function. If the players are ambiguity-averse, then under these assumptions, they play either a pure strategy, a max-min strategy, or a convex combination of the two. By utilizing this result, we develop an algorithm that can enumerate all equilibria of the game.

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31

servati, mohsen. "game of change; a game theoretic approach to organizational change management." Thesis, Jönköping University, JTH, Industrial Engineering and Management, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-12707.

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Organizational change and game theory were separately investigated over time. Due to lack of scientific research on the relationships of those two fields of knowledge, an investigation of the game theoretic applications in managing change was performed in this research. Game theoretic applications were structured concerning the analytical use of game theory, strategic formulation with game theory and equilibrium analysis. By a qualitative flexible research method, main problematic areas of organizational change were identified with suitable game theoretic applications. Those problem areas are: making cooperation and coalition in change, group dynamic difficulties and the problem of incentive rewards. In each problem area, game theoretic solutions were discussed to help managers to make better decisions. Four mechanisms were inferred to support the game theoretic analysis of change management problems. Those mechanisms are: sub games, practical games, specific modeling and behavioral studies of games. Finally, an instructional framework was developed to conclude findings and illuminate the game theoretic approach in organizational change.

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32

Muggy, Timothy Luke. "Quantifying and mitigating decentralized decision making in humanitarian logistics systems." Diss., Kansas State University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/19794.

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Doctor of Philosophy
Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Systems Engineering
Jessica L. Heier Stamm
Humanitarian and public health logistics systems are often characterized by decentralized decision makers in the form of response agencies who establish supply chains and the beneficiaries who access them. While classical models assume there is a single decision maker with a global objective and authority, decentralized systems consist of multiple decision makers, each with accomplishing his own objective and scope of control. The literature demonstrates that decentralized systems often perform poorly when compared to their hypothetical centralized counterparts. However, there exist few models in the literature to quantify the impact of decentralization and mechanisms for its mitigation are deficient. This research advances knowledge of decentralized systems through new game theory and optimization models, solution methodologies and theoretical characterizations of system performance. First, the author presents a literature review that synthesizes research regarding the facets of humanitarian operations that can benefit from the application of game theory. The author finds that models of decentralized behavior lack realism, neglecting sources of uncertainty, dynamism and personal preferences that influence individuals' decisions. These findings motivate the remaining components of the thesis. Next, the author focuses on decentralization on the part of response agencies who open service facilities. Decentralization can adversely impact patient access and equity, both critical factors in humanitarian contexts. A dynamic, robust facility location model is introduced to enable a comparison between a given decentralized response and a hypothetical coordinated response using identical resources. The value of the model is demonstrated through a computational study of the response to a recent cholera epidemic. Finally, the author introduces game theory models that represent the decisions of beneficiaries seeking relief. The models account for distance, congestion, and the relative importance an individual places on the two. The author constructs an algorithm that computes a decentralized solution in polynomial time. The author quantifies decentralized system performance in comparison to centralized control, bounding the cost of decentralized decision making for the least and most costly outcomes. The author identifies coordination mechanisms encourage centrally optimal decisions within decentralized systems.

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33

Stitt, Orrin G. "The soldier's dilemma using decision theory to explain American War crimes /." Monterey, Calif. : Naval Postgraduate School, 2007. http://bosun.nps.edu/uhtbin/hyperion-image.exe/07Dec%5FStitt%5FMBA.pdf.

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Анотація:

"Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration from the Naval Postgraduate School, December 2007."
Advisor(s): Franck, Raymond ; Gates, Bill ; Coughlan, Pete. "December 2007." "MBA professional report"--Cover. Description based on title screen as viewed on January 10, 2008. Includes bibliographical references (p. 49-50). Also available in print.

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34

Kuoppa, Andreas. "Design Decisions for Indie Development of Educational Video Games : A Case Study." Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för system- och rymdteknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-74576.

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Educational video games – especially for the PC market – do not seem to perform as well commercially as games from other genres. We argue that there is room for independent – ’indie’ – developers to break into the marketplace, by identifying certain niches and innovating on the genre. This would generate commercial value for such actors and knowledge value for the players. Design decisions of high importance made during development of an educational video game demo at the small Swedish company Toleap Consulting AB were analysed in the pursuit of contributing to eﬀective indie development of such games. Three main problems that arose during development were identiﬁed, and three design decisions where implemented to combat these respective problems; (1) Interpreted educational game pattern utilising XML, (2) Function-based game views and (3) Community created assets, open source, and no costly dependencies. In our case, the formulated design decisions eﬀectively solved our problems, and we argue that they generalise. If a developer creating a similar game (educational video game) in a similar situation (independent development with limited resources) encounters one or more of these problems, the suggested design decisions may help the developer solve the problems, in turn making more educational video games available on the market, generating the aforementioned commercial and knowledge values.

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35

Rittmayer, Ashley D. "The perils of unjustified confidence : an examination of casino blackjack play and performance /." Electronic thesis, 2005. http://etd.wfu.edu/theses/available/etd-05122005-165837/.

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36

Namuduri, Savitha. "Analysis of resource-sharing decisions in dyadic collaborative knowledge creation a game-theoretic approach /." unrestricted, 2005. http://etd.gsu.edu/theses/available/etd-02102006-141305/.

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Анотація:

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Georgia State University, 2005.
Title from title screen. Dr. Subhashish (Sub) Samaddar, committee chair; William Bogner, Arun Rai, Thomas Whalen, committee members. Electronic text (174 p. : ill. (some col.)) : digital, PDF file. Description based on contents viewed June 29, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (p. 164-173).

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37

Allars, M. N. "Coordination and administrative discretion." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.371505.

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38

Li, Mingfei. "Strategies in repeated games." Diss., Connect to online resource - MSU authorized users, 2008.

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39

Cook, Edward. "Group Decision-Making." VCU Scholars Compass, 2019. https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd/5928.

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The present work explores improvements in group decision-making. It begins with a practical example using state-of-the-art techniques for a complex, high-risk decision. We show how these techniques can reveal a better alternative. Although we created an improved decision process, decision-makers were apt to protect their own organizations instead of the project. This tendency was reduced over the course of the decision-making process but inspired the first conceptual component of this work. The first concept describes the “Cost of Conflict” that can arise in a group decision, using game theory to represent the non-cooperative approach and comparing the outcome to the cooperative approach. We demonstrate that it is possible for the group to settle on a non-Paretto Nash equilibrium. The sensitivity of the decision-maker weights is revealed which led to the second conceptual portion of this work. The second concept applies social network theory to study the influence between decision-makers in a group decision. By examining the number and strength of connections between decision-makers, we build from intrinsically derived weights to extrinsically derived weights by adding the network influences from other decision-makers. The two conceptual approaches provide a descriptive view of non-cooperative decisions where decision-makers still influence each other. These concepts suggest a prescriptive approach to achieving a higher group utility.

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40

Van, Niekerk Francois. "Decision forests for computer Go feature learning." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/86280.

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Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In computer Go, moves are typically selected with the aid of a tree search algorithm. Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) is currently the dominant algorithm in computer Go. It has been shown that the inclusion of domain knowledge in MCTS is able to vastly improve the strength of MCTS engines. A successful approach to representing domain knowledge in computer Go is the use of appropriately weighted tactical features and pattern features, which are comprised of a number of hand-crafted heuristics and a collection of patterns respectively. However, tactical features are hand-crafted specifically for Go, and pattern features are Go-specific, making it unclear how they can be easily transferred to other domains. As such, this work proposes a new approach to representing domain knowledge, decision tree features. These features evaluate a state-action pair by descending a decision tree, with queries recursively partitioning the state-action pair input space, and returning a weight corresponding to the partition element represented by the resultant leaf node. In this work, decision tree features are applied to computer Go, in order to determine their feasibility in comparison to state-of-the-art use of tactical and pattern features. In this application of decision tree features, each query in the decision tree descent path refines information about the board position surrounding a candidate move. The results of this work showed that a feature instance with decision tree features is a feasible alternative to the state-of-the-art use of tactical and pattern features in computer Go, in terms of move prediction and playing strength, even though computer Go is a relatively well-developed research area. A move prediction rate of 35.9% was achieved with tactical and decision tree features, and they showed comparable performance to the state of the art when integrated into an MCTS engine with progressive widening. We conclude that the decision tree feature approach shows potential as a method for automatically extracting domain knowledge in new domains. These features can be used to evaluate state-action pairs for guiding searchbased techniques, such as MCTS, or for action-prediction tasks.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In rekenaar Go, word skuiwe gewoonlik geselekteer met behulp van ’n boomsoektogalgoritme. Monte-Carlo boomsoektog (MCTS) is tans die dominante algoritme in rekenaar Go. Dit is bekend dat die insluiting van gebiedskennis in MCTS in staat is om die krag van MCTS enjins aansienlik te verbeter. ’n Suksesvolle benadering tot die voorstelling van gebiedskennis in rekenaar Go is taktiek- en patroonkenmerke met geskikte gewigte. Hierdie behels ’n aantal handgemaakte heuristieke en ’n versameling van patrone onderskeidelik. Omdat taktiekkenmerke spesifiek vir Go met die hand gemaak is, en dat patroonkenmerke Go-spesifiek is, is dit nie duidelik hoe hulle maklik oorgedra kan word na ander velde toe nie. Hierdie werk stel dus ’n nuwe verteenwoordiging van gebiedskennis voor, naamlik besluitboomkenmerke. Hierdie kenmerke evalueer ’n toestand-aksie paar deur rekursief die toevoerruimte van toestand-aksie pare te verdeel deur middel van die keuses in die besluitboom, en dan die gewig terug te keer wat ooreenstem met die verdelingselement wat die ooreenstemmende blaarnodus verteenwoordig. In hierdie werk, is besluitboomkenmerke geëvalueer op rekenaar Go, om hul lewensvatbaarheid in vergelyking met veldleidende gebruik van taktiek- en patroonkenmerke te bepaal. In hierdie toepassing van besluitboomkenmerke, verfyn elke navraag in die pad na onder van die besluitboom inligting oor die posisie rondom ’n kandidaatskuif. Die resultate van hierdie werk het getoon dat ’n kenmerkentiteit met besluitboomkenmerke ’n haalbare alternatief is vir die veldleidende gebruik van taktiek- en patroonkenmerke in rekenaar Go in terme van skuifvoorspelling as ook speelkrag, ondanks die feit dat rekenaar Go ’n relatief goedontwikkelde navorsingsgebied is. ’n Skuifvoorspellingskoers van 35.9% is behaal met taktiek- en besluitboomkenmerke, en hulle het vergelykbaar met veldleidende tegnieke presteer wanneer hulle in ’n MCTS enjin met progressiewe uitbreiding geïntegreer is. Ons lei af dat ons voorgestelde besluitboomkenmerke potensiaal toon as ’n metode vir die outomaties onttrek van gebiedskennis in nuwe velde. Hierdie eienskappe kan gebruik word om toestand-aksie pare te evalueer vir die leiding van soektog-gebaseerde tegnieke, soos MCTS, of vir aksie-voorspelling.

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41

Moskalenko, Anna. "Essays on Collective Decision-Making." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/666290.

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Aquesta tesi consta de quatre capítols independents relacionats amb la presa de decisions col·lectives. En primer lloc, s'analitza la dinàmica en un partit polític en presència del conflicte intern. Es mostra com la incorporació de la democràcia interna (en particular, la introducció de primàries) pot ajudar a resoldre el conflicte intern. En segon lloc, s'estudia el problema que es crea quan un grup d'agents ha de triar un guanyador entre ells. Hi ha un guanyador merescut, que tots els agents coneixen. No obstant això, cada agent és egoista: sempre vol ser el guanyador. Es construeix el mecanisme de veto, que sempre tria el guanyador merescut, independentment de les preferències egoistes dels agents. En tercer lloc, es qüestiona la hipòtesi de la nocivitat de la regla de vot dictatorial. L'anàlisi pretén allunyar-se de la regla de vot dictatorial, buscant la regla que estigui més lluny de la regla dictatorial més propera, i identificar les regles que equilibrin totes les regles dictatorials. El primer resultat troba la regla de pluralitat inversa com la més allunyada de la regla de votació dictatorial més propera. Malauradament, aquesta regla incompleix algunes propietats aparentment desitjables. El segon resultat conclou que la regla de pluralitat és la que equilibra l'acord entre totes les regles de votació dictatorials. En quart lloc, s'analitza la relació entre dues propietats incompatibles, la dictadura i la manipulabilitat, en termes de certs índexs de manipulabilitat i no dictadura. L'objectiu és donar una mica de llum sobre el problema de triar entre les regles de vot.
Esta tesis consiste de cuatro capítulos independientes relacionados con la toma de decisiones colectiva. En primer lugar, se analizan la dinámica en un partido político en presencia de conflicto enterno. Se muestra cómo la incorporación de la democracia interna (en particular, la introducción de las primarias) puede ayudar a resolver el conflicto dentro del partido. En segundo lugar, se estudia el problema que se crea cuando un grupo de agentes debe elegir un ganador entre ellos. Existe un ganador merecido a quien todos los agentes conocen. Sin embargo, cada agente es egoísta: siempre quiere ser el ganador. Se construye el mecanismo de veto, que siempre elige al ganador merecido independientemente de las preferencias egoístas de los agentes. En tercer lugar, se cuestiona la suposición de la nocividad de la regla de votación dictatorial indeseable. El objetivo del análisis es alejarse de la regla de votación dictatorial, buscando la regla que está más alejada de la regla dictatorial más cercana, e identificar las reglas que equilibren todas las reglas dictatoriales. El primer resultado encuentra la regla de pluralidad inversa como la más alejada de la regla de votación dictatorial más cercana. Desafortunadamente, esta regla viola algunas propiedades aparentemente deseables. El segundo resultado concluye que la regla de pluralidad es la que equilibra el acuerdo entre todas las reglas de votación dictatoriales. En cuarto lugar, se analiza la relación entre dos propiedades incompatibles, la dictadura y la manipulabilidad, en términos de ciertos índices de manipulabilidad y no-dictadura. El objetivo es arrojar algo de luz sobre el problema de elegir entre las reglas de votación.
This thesis consists of four independent chapters related to collective decision-making. First, intra-party dynamics is analyzed in the presence of intra-party conflict. It is shown how the incorporation of intra-party democracy (in particular, the introduction of primaries) may help to resolve intra-party conflict. Second, the problem arising when a group of agents must choose a winner among themselves is studied. There exists a deserving winner, whom all agents know. Nevertheless, each agent is selfish: he always wants to be the winner. A veto mechanism is proposed that always chooses the deserving winner irrespective of the selfish preferences of the agents. Third, the assumption of the harmfulness of dictatorial voting rule is questioned. The aim is to get away from dictatorial voting rules, by searching for the rule that is the furthest away from the closest dictatorial rule, and to identify the rules balancing all dictatorial rules. The first result finds the reverse-plurality rule as the furthest from the closest dictatorial voting rule. Unfortunately, this rule violates some apparently desirable properties. The second result states that the plurality rule is the one that balances the agreement between all dictatorial voting rules. Fourth, the relationship between two incompatible properties of dictatorship and manipulability is analyzed, in terms of certain indices of manipulability and non-dictatorship. The aim is to shed some light on the problem of choosing between voting rules.

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42

Robinson, A. Emanuel. "The Impact of Causality, Strategies, and Temporal Cues on Games of Decision." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/11488.

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Decision-making is something we do every day, and is a broad research area that impacts disciplines spanning from economics to philosophy to psychology. The question of rational behavior has been of particular interest (Colman, 2003). A specific area of decision-making where rationality has been investigated is game theory, which deals with the interactions of two or more opponents in a competitive situation (e.g., von Neumann and Morgenstern, 1944). The dominant theoretical perspective in this area claims individuals try to maximize expected utility when making decisions (e.g., Luce and Raiffa, 1957). An alternative theory has been put forth to better explain experimental deviations from utility theory and rationality. Causal decision theory is based on the assumption that individuals incorporate causal knowledge in decisions, while trying to maximize causal utility (e.g., Sloman, 2005). The present study delineated these theoretical approaches as strategies that can be utilized in game theoretic situations (based on a strategy choice perspective in deductive reasoning developed by Robinson and Hertzog, 2005). The role of causal models, strategy choice, and temporal assumptions were investigated. In both experiments, there was support for causal decision theory and the primary prediction that a direct causal model leads to more cooperation in competitive situations. Conversely, those individuals that were given (or assumed) a common cause model chose to cooperate less. Qualitative coding and strategy self-reports aligned with these findings and according to predictions. These differences in cooperation based on causal models also held across items for the same participant. Finally, causal information superseded temporal cues in affecting behavior.

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43

Tesch, Aaron Daniel Kuechler. "A TALE OF TWO SYSTEMS: EXECUTIVE FUNCTION IN ULTIMATUM GAME DECISIONS." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/194942.

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Theories that formally describe decision-making have traditionally posited that decisions are made by rational actors. However, it is generally accepted that humans often make irrational decisions because of quick emotional judgements. In order to reconcile these two inconsistent ideas psychologists have developed two-system theories that hypothesize decisions are made by two opposing cognitive systems, representing the rational and emotional processing of decisions. Evidence for a two-system model of decision-making can be observed in ultimatum game responder decisions. It is thought that rational processing of these choices will produce acceptance of unfair offers and emotional processing will encourage rejection of unfair offers. Emotional priming has been shown to decrease ultimatum game acceptances and trans-cranial magnetic stimulation of rational brain areas, i.e. DLPFC, show increases in ultimatum game acceptances. This study investigated the possibility of using behavioral tasks that are known to activate rational brain areas to promote/disrupt ultimatum game acceptances. The possible relationship between ultimatum game acceptances and executive functions was also examined. Although there were promising indications that working memory loading may increase ultimatum game acceptances in between-subject experiments, a within-subject investigation found little support for this method of promoting/disrupting rational ultimatum game decisions. There were also no relationships found between switching or inhibition executive functions and ultimatum game responder decisions. A moderate positive relationship was found between updating executive function and ultimatum game acceptance rates but this relationship was dependent on working memory task feedback, a within-subject design and active loading of the working memory system. However, its possible that these findings only apply to within-subject paradigms and future between-subject studies are advised.

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44

Allaheeb, Bassim Abdullah H. "Decision-making In Different Cultures: Essays In Experimental Economics." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trento, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11572/242752.

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People interact with each other rationally and irrationally. Standard economic theories assume that people act rationally, yet, behavioral economic theories indicate that sometimes people act irrationally because of the specific situation, their character, and many other factors. Culture plays a role in shaping people’s preferences, values, personalities, norms, and beliefs. That being the case, it is important to shed some light on the effect of different types of cultures on people’s decision-making behavior, in order to better understand human nature with regard to economic decisions. The ultimate goal of this thesis is to define how people from various cultures behave differently while making economic decisions, and to provide a better understanding for the motives behind people’s preferences towards decision-making. The first and second chapters of this thesis consider studies in experimental economics about the effect of introducing effort to the ultimatum game. The first chapter provides evidence that people’s decisions are driven by either hierarchy or property rights by comparing the results of three different cultures. The second chapter shows the impact of proposers’ effort in the ultimatum game, in which, culturally driven phenomenon impact on the proposers’ behavior. The third chapter investigates the impact of the Islam religion on experimental studies with regard to decision making and it shows that religious beliefs play an important role in shaping people’s preferences.

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45

Justin, Cedric Y. "A quantitative real options method for aviation technology decision-making in the presence of uncertainty." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/54452.

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The developments of new technologies for commercial aviation involve significant risk for technologists as these programs are often driven by fixed assumptions regarding future airline needs, while being subject to many uncertainties at the technical and market levels. To prioritize these developments, technologists must assess their economic viability even though standard methods used for capital budgeting are not well suited to handle the overwhelming uncertainty surrounding such developments. This research proposes a framework featuring real options to overcome this challenge. It is motivated by three observations: disregarding the value of managerial flexibility undervalues long-term research and development (R&D) programs; windows of opportunities emerge and disappear and manufacturers can derive significant value by exploiting their upside potential; integrating competitive aspects early in the design ensures that development programs are robust with respect to moves by the competition. Real options analyses have been proposed to address some of these points but the adoption has been slow, hindered by constraining frameworks. A panel of academics and practitioners has identified a set of requirements, known as the Georgetown Challenge, that real options analyses must meet to get more traction amongst practitioners in the industry. In a bid to meet some of these requirements, this research proposes a novel methodology, cross-fertilizing techniques from financial engineering, actuarial sciences, and statistics to evaluate and study the timing of technology developments under uncertainty. It aims at substantiating decision making for R&D while having a wider domain of application and an improved ability to handle a complex reality compared to more traditional approaches. The method named FLexible AViation Investment Analysis (FLAVIA) uses first Monte Carlo techniques to simulate the evolution of uncertainties driving the value of technology developments. A non-parametric Esscher transform is then applied to perform a change of probability measure to express these evolutions under the equivalent martingale measure. A bootstrap technique is suggested next to construct new non-weighted evolutions of the technology development value under the new measure. A regression-based technique is finally used to analyze the technology development program and to discover trigger boundaries which help define when the technology development program should be launched. Verification of the method is performed on several canonical examples and indicates good accuracy and competitive execution time. It is applied next to the analysis of a performance improvement package (PIP) development using the Integrated Cost And Revenue Estimation method (i-CARE) developed as part of this research. The PIP can be retrofitted to currently operating turbofan engines in order to mitigate the impact of the aging process on their operating costs. The PIP is subject to market uncertainties, such as the evolution of jet-fuel prices and the possible taxation of carbon emissions. The profitability of the PIP development is investigated and the value of managerial flexibility and timing flexibility are highlighted.The developments of new technologies for commercial aviation involve significant risk for technologists as these programs are often driven by fixed assumptions regarding future airline needs, while being subject to many uncertainties at the technical and market levels. To prioritize these developments, technologists must assess their economic viability even though standard methods used for capital budgeting are not well suited to handle the overwhelming uncertainty surrounding such developments. This research proposes a framework featuring real options to overcome this challenge. It is motivated by three observations: disregarding the value of managerial flexibility undervalues long-term research and development (R&D) programs; windows of opportunities emerge and disappear and manufacturers can derive significant value by exploiting their upside potential; integrating competitive aspects early in the design ensures that development programs are robust with respect to moves by the competition. Real options analyses have been proposed to address some of these points but the adoption has been slow, hindered by constraining frameworks. A panel of academics and practitioners has identified a set of requirements, known as the Georgetown Challenge, that real options analyses must meet to get more traction amongst practitioners in the industry. In a bid to meet some of these requirements, this research proposes a novel methodology, cross-fertilizing techniques from financial engineering, actuarial sciences, and statistics to evaluate and study the timing of technology developments under uncertainty. It aims at substantiating decision making for R&D while having a wider domain of application and an improved ability to handle a complex reality compared to more traditional approaches. The method named FLexible AViation Investment Analysis (FLAVIA) uses first Monte Carlo techniques to simulate the evolution of uncertainties driving the value of technology developments. A non-parametric Esscher transform is then applied to perform a change of probability measure to express these evolutions under the equivalent martingale measure. A bootstrap technique is suggested next to construct new non-weighted evolutions of the technology development value under the new measure. A regression-based technique is finally used to analyze the technology development program and to discover trigger boundaries which help define when the technology development program should be launched. Verification of the method is performed on several canonical examples and indicates good accuracy and competitive execution time. It is applied next to the analysis of a performance improvement package (PIP) development using the Integrated Cost And Revenue Estimation method (i-CARE) developed as part of this research. The PIP can be retrofitted to currently operating turbofan engines in order to mitigate the impact of the aging process on their operating costs. The PIP is subject to market uncertainties, such as the evolution of jet-fuel prices and the possible taxation of carbon emissions. The profitability of the PIP development is investigated and the value of managerial flexibility and timing flexibility are highlighted.

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46

Jang, Dooseok. "Two Essays of Other-Regarding Preferences' Influence on Social Decision Making." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/556837.

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This paper investigates the influence of two representative other-regarding preferences on specified issues. The first chapter studies the preferred tax rate and labor supplies of voters in the presence of income inequality aversion in a two-stage redistribution game. The two-stage redistribution game consists of a first stage in which voters vote for a flat tax rate on income with the revenues redistributed evenly and a second stage in which workers, who are also voters, provide the labor supplies with the tax rate given. I specify inequality aversion preferences into two ways: The payoff inequality aversion represents people's preference to divide their material payoff evenly, and the income inequality aversion represents people's preference to divide their income evenly without considering their efforts to earn that income. In conclusion, payoff inequality-averse workers provide the same labor supplied as a worker who does not have any inequality aversions (a standard worker) but prefers a higher tax rate to a standard worker. The income inequality-averse workers, first, provide their labor supply considering their positions in a skill distribution and, therefore, adjust their labor supply such that the income curve becomes flatter. High-skilled workers tend to earn less income, while low-skilled workers tend to earn more income. Second, the income share of the richest decreases with the degree of inequality aversion up to a point. Third, inequality-averse workers do not necessarily prefer a higher tax rate to a standard worker, mainly because some level of income inequality is already self-adjusted in the second stage. The second chapter looks at how reciprocal preferences influence coalition size in international environmental agreements. Reciprocal preferences represent how a decision maker gains an additional positive utility when it responds to a kind action with a kind action or to an unkind action with an unkind action. I incorporate reciprocal preferences in a two-stage game that predicts the decision of each government to participate in an agreement that decreases pollutant emissions. The main result shows that bigger coalition forms than the standard preference does not include reciprocal preferences. Reciprocal governments that participate in the treaty (signatories) suffer from unkindness based on pollution by non-signatories so that the threat to retaliate by polluting becomes credible. Then, free-rider governments (non-signatories) on the margin surrender to the implicit threat and participate in the treaty. Furthermore, including reciprocity reverses the usual result that there is an inverse relationship between the marginal benefit and coalition size. In other words, the size of coalition increases with the marginal benefit of abatement in an equilibrium when the reciprocal sensitivity is sufficiently high. Signatories are more likely to retaliate against non-signatories because the benefit to non-signatories of refraining from decreasing emissions aggravates the unkindness to signatories.

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47

Hernandez, Gabriel. "A probabilistic-based design approach with game theoretical representations of the enterprise design process." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/33422.

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48

Acosta, Ortiz Alida Maria. "Other-regarding preferences and the decision behaviour of autistic people in the Ultimatum Game." Thesis, City, University of London, 2018. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/21803/.

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When humans interact with one another, the decisions they make often appear to be irrational in a purely economic sense. People are willing to sacrifice resources in order to affect positive outcomes for others and they often forgo opportunities to maximise benefits for themselves in order to avoid disadvantaging others. Explanations for such phenomena remain contested. The current thesis seeks to shed light on some of the factors that contribute to social-decision making by comparing decision making in typically developing individuals and individuals diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder - a condition characterised by difficulties in many of the domains that are suspected to play a role in guiding social-decision behaviour. In four experiments, variants of a paradigm known as the Ultimatum Game were implemented, which requires individuals to decide whether or not to accept or reject fair or unfair monetary offers. In Experiment 1, a one-shot UG was implemented in which participants provided one response as proposer and one as responder. In experiment 2, as responders, participants were asked to decide over intentionally vs randomly made unfair offers while skin conductance response was measured. In experiment 3, a cognitive manipulation was implemented, and participants were asked to respond with and without time pressure to fair and unfair offers made by human proposers. Finally, in experiment 4 participants played as proposers and responders a multi trial Mini UG. Here, participants decide over an unfair offer which is presented four times along with an alternative offer that varies in levels of fairness each time. In addition, across all experiments a number of traits, that are thought to play a role in regulating decision behaviour in this scenario were assessed through self-report and performance measures, including theory of mind, inhibition, empathising and systemising. The results from the Ultimatum Game task showed that there are no substantial behavioural differences between ASD and control participants (TD). However, in two of the experiments, differences emerged which suggested that the two groups differed in the cognitive processes recruited to respond to levels of fairness. Specifically, in experiment 2 ASD participants were less influenced by whether or not unfair offers were proposed by a human or computer counterpart and in experiment 3 rejection rates were more strongly associated with a measure of theory of mind than in the TD group. These results are discussed in the framework of cognitive theories of ASD and models of economic exchange suggesting that inequity aversion, e.g. Cultural norms, and fairness reciprocity are not stable preferences but differently motivate decision behaviour depending on the context. Further research needs to be undertaken to identify how executive control and dual theories of moral judgements affect decision behaviour in repeated interactions.

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49

Shimonishi, Kei. "Modeling and Estimation of Selection Interests through Gaze Behavior." Kyoto University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/227658.

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50

Van, Eyk Marlé. "Analysis processes as antecedents for decision-making related to growth strategies of South African Game Ranchers." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1546.

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Game ranching offers an economic alternative to conventional stock farming and is a means of supplementing income derived from agricultural activities. Competition is intensifying as ranchers continuously look for ways to improve and expand their businesses and gain a competitive advantage. Ranchers consequently have to find strategies that can ensure growth. Since a reciprocal relationship and dependency exists between a game ranch and the environment in which it operates, it is essential that ranchers take cognizance of aspects in the marketing environment that can either limit, and hence encumber the choice of growth strategy, or stimulate the growth potential of game ranches. As the objective of marketing is to offer customers superior value, it is pertinent for ranchers to know and understand the needs, requirements and motivations of visitors. Failure to do so will cause visitors to patronise other game ranches, or alternative tourism offerings that meet their expectations. A literature review was conducted to define strategy and assist in identifying growth strategies available to a game ranch. The literature review assisted in categorising elements in the external, internal and customer analysis phases of strategic marketing management. Surveys were conducted by means of self-completion questionnaires which were distributed throughout South Africa. Two sets of questionnaires were distributed - one to respondents with prior experience of a game ranch, and one to respondents with no-prior experience. A qualifying question directed the fieldworker to decide which questionnaire should be completed by the respondent. The surveys were constructed in such a way as to determine to what extent various factors would persuade respondents to visit a ranch or extend their stay. Based on a factor analysis, an eight factor structure emerged which represented the personal values of respondents and their levels of expectation for each of the factors. The eight factors were stimulation, universalism, tradition, security, hedonism, power, socialisation, and self-direction. The study revealed the following. - The majority of respondents with no-prior experience of a game ranch is either unaware of the offerings of game ranches, or perceives them as too expensive. - The sustainable use of natural resources is not only essential for the existence of a game ranch, but is also an important motivator for respondents to either visit a game ranch or extend their stay at a ranch. - Staff play a critical role in the overall experience of visitors and act as an important motivator to either visit/revisit a game ranch or extend their stay at the ranch. - Clean and comfortable overnight facilities are deemed important by all respondents. - Respondents have a strong desire to relax and spend time with family and friends. A decision-making framework from which game ranches can select applicable growth strategies resulted from the study. The decision-making framework comprises a three-phase process; phase 1 is the identification of a game ranch's target market; phase 2 is the use of a simplistic framework to determine a possible growth strategy for a game ranch; phase 3 is the identification of ways to implement the selected strategy. As the game ranch industry makes significant contributions to the economic, social and ecological welfare of South Africa, this study added to the body of knowledge of game ranching in South Africa, particularly with regard to the growth options available to game ranches. Recommendations for consideration of future research included the following. - As the current study investigated hunting and tourism, future research on growth strategies for game ranches could also include other aspects of game ranching such as the sale of live game and game products. - More focused empirical research into external and internal strategic analysis should be considered to supplement the empirical research into customer analysis resulting from the current study. - Finally, additional information obtained on the external and internal strategic analysis process could lead to expanding the decision-making framework developed in this study into a more holistic tool to be used in selecting a growth strategy, or combination of strategies for a game ranch3.

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