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1
Квітка, С. А. "Public administration and cyclical mechanisms socio-economic development." PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ASPECTS 4, no. 1-2 (February 4, 2016): 26–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.15421/1516003.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article discusses the cyclical mechanisms of socio-economic development as one of kinds of natural cycles. The author notes that in all cases the basis of the self-oscillations are cyclical. And they are only possible with the constant influx of three resources - en-ergy, matter and information. On this basis, it is noted that the self-organization of co-herent structures, regardless of their Genesis, is due to intrinsically contradictory unity of two interacting types of resource flows - energy, matter and information – And-stream forming system, and the In-flow that will disrupt her. The cycle of development of sys-tems consists of two components: one that describes the development of a system with positive saturation, according to a logistic law (A>B); and another describing the devel-opment of the system with negative saturation (<A), which also occurs according to the logistic law. In all cases, the process is directed to A=B. Any development of social sys-tems can be divided into several types, among which are the following: 1) the conformal cycle (self-similar) development is dynamic - equilibrium state; 2) the evolutionary cycle of revolutions; 3) the evolutionary cycle of disasters. The author also considers the peculiarities of external influence on state control of economies by the countries-leaders who have the ability to regulate access to resources - energy, matter and information.
2
Baladayi Nazarov, Javidan. "Legal regulation of cycle economic development and phases of cycles." SCIENTIFIC WORK 61, no. 12 (December 25, 2020): 174–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.36719/2663-4619/61/174-178.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The subject of the article covers issues that have been relevant since the last century. The study of economic fluctuations, the study of their causes allows us to make proposals to eliminate its negative consequences. Frequent crises since the early twentieth century necessitate the expansion of research in this area. The peculiarities of cyclic phases require different approaches and problem-oriented regulatory policies. For this reason, it is necessary to pursue an adequate state policy. Normative legal acts, laws and decisions are the main tools of legal regulation. Steps are also being taken to reduce the negative effects of the cyclical phases used by the Central Bank and other banking and financial institutions Key words: crisis, economic development, cyclical phases, government regulation, legal norms, financial crisis, fiscal and monetary policy, legal regulation
3
Katanayev, N. T., N. A. Arkatova, and D. I. Kozlov. "Features of cyclical development of the automotive industry." Izvestiya MGTU MAMI 7, no. 1-5 (September 10, 2013): 166–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.17816/2074-0530-67862.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The state of automotive industry of the Russian Federation is analyzed on the basis of the relative performance of the industrial output in terms of ever-changing macro-economic factors affecting the production activities of enterprises in the last half-century.
4
Kitrar, L. A., and T. M. Lipkind. "Development of Composite Indicators of Cyclical Response in Business Surveys." Voprosy statistiki 28, no. 2 (May 3, 2021): 24–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2021-28-2-24-41.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article proposes a new set of composite indicators-predictors in business tendency surveys, which allow identifying early information signals of a cyclical nature in the economic behavior of business agents. The main criterion for the efficiency of such indicators is their sensitivity to a cyclical pattern and changes in the dynamics of statistical referents. Property such as a statistically significant lead in time series or earlier publication allows them to be combined into indicators of early response. The composite Business Activity Indicator (BAI) in the basic sectors of the Russian economy is calculated by the authors for the first time based on the results of regular (monthly and quarterly) business surveys of Rosstat for 1998–2020 with a large-scale coverage of sampling units. In 2020, the number of survey respondents averaged about 20,000 organizations of all sizes. The index reflects the «common» profile in the dynamics of short-term fluctuations of the key parameters of the economic environment, which consists of the «balances of opinions» of respondents to the questions unified for all sectoral surveys and connected with the reference quantitative statistics with cross-correlation coefficients that are statistically significantly different from zero, with a lead at least one quarter. This is its main difference from the well-known indices of economic sentiment and entrepreneurial confidence. The main components of the BAI are the new composite indices of real demand, current output, real employment, total profits and economic situation. They aggregate the relevant «order» statistics for the basic sectors of the national economy, including the main kinds of industrial activities, retail trade, construction, and services.The article provides a methodological substantiation and an extended procedure for identifying the BAI components; their composition is formed for the entire set of retrospective results of business tendency monitoring in Russia. A new Aggregate Economic Vulnerability Indicator with a counterdirectional profile and varying degrees of symmetry of its dynamics relative to the short-term movement of the BAI is being introduced as the main limitation of business activity. Proactive monitoring of emerging vulnerabilities in the business environment is necessary to warn their large-scale accumulation, prevent the risks of economic downturns and ensure the highest possible macroeconomic stability. This integrated approach makes it possible to determine the novelty of the proposed measurements of short-term cyclical fluctuations in economic development.
5
Kostiana, O., O. Naydenko, V. Tyschenko, and V. Ostapenko. "CUSTOMS POLICY OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF CYCLICAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT." Financial and credit activity: problems of theory and practice 3, no. 34 (September 30, 2020): 351–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.18371/fcaptp.v3i34.215562.
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6
ZHANG, WEI-BIN. "Cyclical economic development with international non-instantaneous transfer of technical knowledge." International Journal of Systems Science 20, no. 2 (February 1989): 311–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00207728908910128.
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7
Matoušková, Eleonóra. "CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE ECONOMIES OF V4 COUNTRIES." EUrASEANs: journal on global socio-economic dynamics, no. 6(25) (November 30, 2020): 26–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.35678/2539-5645.6(25).2020.26-36.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The Visegrad Four (V4) countries, which include Slovak Republic, Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, are trying to catch up with the economic development and living standards of their more developed neighbours. The brake on this are economic recessions that regularly occur within market economies. The objective of this article is to assess the economic development in the V4 countries, in particular on the basis of development in the main macroeconomic indicator, which is GDP. All these countries went through two recessions in the 2008-2020 period. The first was the recession caused by the spillover of the global financial and economic crisis from the USA to Europe and thus to the V4 countries. During this crisis, the largest decrease was recorded in Hungary and in Slovak Republic. The second, and even stronger, economic crisis affecting the entire world economy and hence the V4 countries too is the current crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to prevent its further spread. The highest decrease in GDP is projected in Slovak Republic (at -10.3%) and the lowest in Poland (at -4.3%).
8
Yakovleva, Elena A. "Cyclic Economy in a Globalized World." SHS Web of Conferences 74 (2020): 06032. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20207406032.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article is devoted to solving the problems of the development of a cyclical economy in the conditions of globalization, since the further development of society while maintaining the current growth rates of production and consumption with increasing population can lead to a global catastrophe. The traditional development model is based on intensive industrial growth and resource-intensive infrastructure. In a global cyclical economy, it is necessary to separate economic growth from resource consumption, focusing on preserving value in order to protect ecosystems and natural capital. The aim of the work is to develop tools for the transition to a cyclical economy in the context of globalization. The research methodology is based on an analysis of international and national legislation, scientific publications and ongoing projects for building elements of a cyclical economy. To model the development of cyclical development in the context of globalization, economic opportunities are identified based on specific indicators and identified barriers for which solutions and policy options are developed. For the practical implementation of the ideas of a cyclical economy, government measures are needed to overcome institutional, economic and political barriers. The transition to a cyclical economy leads to an increase in transaction costs, uncertainty, opportunistic behavior. The concept of a cyclical economy is global in nature and represents a systemic shift that shapes long-term sustainability, creates economic opportunities and provides environmental and social benefits.
9
Yaskova, Natalia Yur'ievna. "METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF ECONOMIC EVENTS CYCLICITY METHOD CONSIDERATION." Vestnik MGSU, no. 6 (June 2017): 680–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.22227/1997-0935.2017.6.680-686.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The cyclicity of economic phenomena is not only their immanent property but also the subject of economic analysis. The modern way of making managerial decisions requires analysis of a number of cycles that fill any kind of activity. Accounting and reconciliation of construction, design, investment, purchasing, reproduction, leasing and other cycles is important for the investment and construction sector, both from the point of view of the need for their synchronization and from the position of determining trends in sectoral development. The analysis has showed that three main types of development are characteristic for investment and construction activity. Increasing intensity is inherent in a high level of cyclic synchronization. The degradation trend arises as a result of mismatched cycles. The stabilization character is inherent in the regular modes of maintaining the established proportions and cyclical inter-conformity. The study of the cyclical nature of investment and building processes is impossible without understanding their co-ordination. The principles of synchronization and subordination of the cycles should be used not only for the construction of cost-effective systems but also for the development of management tools.
10
LYAPINA, I. R., T. A. ZHURAVLEVA, and I. V. SKOBLIAKOVA. "SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE CYCLICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMY." Central Russian Journal of Social Sciences 16, no. 4 (2021): 133–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/2071-2367-2021-16-4-133-147.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The purpose of the research is to study of the features of the influence of social institutions on the cyclicality and dynamics of economic development in the context of identifying the role of social institutions at individual phases of the cycle of economic development, as well as consideration of the functions and tools of social institutions by phases of economic development. The subject of the research is a set of roles, functions and tools of social institutions related to different phases of the cycle of economic development. The methodological base is formed for the implementation of scientific research tasks. Its tools are methods that allow reflecting the features of the influence of social institutions on the cyclical nature of the economy: the method of theoretical foundations, the method of grouping, the method of analysis, the method of comparison, the method of implication. As a result of the study, it is indicated that the functions of social institutions should be highlighted: the consolidation of emerging social relations, adaptation, regulatory processes, a communication basis and a translational basis. The instruments that influence economic fluctuations are formed in the context of social institutions. Thus, the institution of the family is characterized by the use of an optimization mechanism, the concept of sustainability of social relations, the concept of production and distribution of economic benefits in order to meet the needs of each of the subjects.
11
Ahmadova, E. M. "Assessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan." Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law 14, no. 2 (April 2, 2021): 100–121. http://dx.doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2021-14-2-6.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
We are proposing the results of economic development factors analysis, and there influence in forming and display of the economic cycles. The purpose of this article is to identify significant indicators of the cyclical development Azerbaijan economy for the capable of predicting and regulating phases of the onset of business cycle. Were checking 20 different indicators based by the annual data of the State Statistical Committee from 1998 to 2018. The relationship and influence of interest rates and the cyclical Azerbaijan economy development were examined. The methodological basis of this work became an analysis of such fundamental research data as papers IMF and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBEI) of the United States. Scientific methods of our research were an indicator approach, complemented by a qualitative analysis and a correlation-regression analysis. The calculations were performed by the freely distributed modern software - the statistical environment R, the most dynamically developing program in its class. So acyclic, countercyclical, and pro-cyclic indicators were identified by us. The features of the influence of these indicators on cyclic development in modern conditions were identified, their significance was determined. It was concluded that the possibility of economic cycles forecasting by the various phases indicators contributes to the modeling of economic activity. The results of the research can be applied both to monitor the development of the Azerbaijan economy and to predict the onset of the corresponding economic phases with the aim of adapting and reducing crises’ negative impact at the micro and macro levels.
12
Solovyev, D. A., and L. V. Nefedova. "The Impact of Natural and Climatic Anomalies on the Dynamics of Economic Development." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 988, no. 3 (February 1, 2022): 032047. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/988/3/032047.
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Abstract Crisis events in the economy of the first half of the 21st century are considered as a manifestation of their inevitable cyclicality based on the correlation analysis of statistics of anomalous natural and climatic phenomena. Using spectral analysis methods, the rhythm of these events in the past was investigated, and simultaneously with the use of a specially developed neural model, their cyclical manifestation is predicted for the coming period - until 2049. It is shown that the cyclical nature of natural and climatic phenomena can be considered as one of the economy’s macroeconomic indicators when conducting long-term forecasting of its dynamics.
13
Reichenbachas, Tomas. "Analysis of the development of the unemployment rate in Lithuania: application of the SVAR model." Ekonomika 94, no. 3 (January 1, 2015): 86–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/ekon.2015.3.8789.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The paper analyses the dynamics of unemployment in Lithuania, using a structural vector autoregressive model (sVAR) with long-term restrictions proposed by Fabiani et al. (2001). In accordance with it, the unemployment rate is predetermined by economic shocks, some of them with long-term effects (structural) and some with short-term ones (cyclical). The greater part of changes in unemployment in the period of 2002 to 2014 were predetermined by cyclical shocks (of productivity and labour supply and demand). The cyclical unemployment, peaked in the years 2010 to 2011, amounted to ca. 6%. On the other hand, structural unemployment is slow to change, in the years of the economic boom (2006 to 2007) it amounted to ca. 8% (at the time, the cyclical unemployment was negative and the economy encountered overheating, while in 2014 structural unemployment was slightly higher and amounted to ca. 11%).
14
V. Kurushina, Elena, Mikhail B. Petrov, and Irina V. Druzhinina. "Cyclical impact of regional attractiveness characteristics on migration flows." Journal of New Economy 21, no. 3 (October 7, 2020): 91–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.29141/2658-5081-2020-21-3-5.
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Achieving strategic goals of the spatial development implies improving the living en vironment for the population, increasing its mobility on the one hand and concentration in pro spective centres of the economic growth on the other. The paper studies the migration behaviour with the use of coefficients of the mechanical growth rate of the population in conditions of the varying attractiveness of the Russian regions, which depends on stages of economic cycle. The methodological basis of the research comprises spatial economics, content theories of motiva tion, theory of population migration, and theory of economic cycles. The research uses the sta tistics of the socioeconomic development of 83 subjects of the Russian Federation for the period of 2005–2017 that corresponds to the declining phase of the long half-wave. To investigate the influence of regional attractiveness factors on the intensity of migration flow the authors apply regression analysis methods. The spatial regression models are built for each year of the studied period using the IBM SPSS Statistics. The dynamics analysis of the coefficients of migration growth during the period of the long half-wave reveals two short-term cycles, one lasting from 2005 to 2010 and the other continuing from 2010 to 2015. The findings indicate that indicators tend to converge in the descending phase of the short-term cycle and, au contraire, to diverge in the ascending phase across regions. Based on the dynamics of elasticity coefficients of the migra tion growth, the authors identify regions’ characteristics, which increase their influence on the intensity of migration flow in the ascending phase and decrease it in the descending phase of the short-term cycle. Obtained quantitative estimates of the cyclical effects of territories’ attrac tiveness characteristics may promote the efficiency of measures for controlling migration flows.
15
Wu, Shuqin. "Counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policies and development of the real economy post the Covid-19 pandemic." E3S Web of Conferences 235 (2021): 01065. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202123501065.
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With the coronavirus kept in check, China sees an economic rebound and robust economic growth. From the angle of economics, this paper interprets China’s orientation in monetary policies post the pandemic, and the prudent monetary policies are prospective, targeted policies that meet the requirements for countercyclical adjustments. The financial service providers improved in quality and efficiency, the monetary transmission efficiency was enhanced, and multiple financial service providers have jointly promoted the sustainable development of the real economy.
16
Podliesna, Vasylyna. "Political cycles in the conditions of formation of the information network society." Ekonomìčna teorìâ 2020, no. 3 (October 20, 2020): 52–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/etet2020.03.052.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In the cyclical dynamics of the capitalist world system, politics and economics are closely intertwined, which is manifested in the development of political business cycles of individual countries, as well as in the development of cyclical political and economic processes in the long run on a global scale. The development of political business cycles is due to the influence of interrelated factors - competition of political forces, economic expectations and political preferences of voters. The immanent to the capitalist world-system deep internal contradictions lead to a variety of forms of long-term socio-economic cycles, including such a form as political cycles of a global nature. In the modern conditions of transition from the industrial-market system to the information-network society, the factors continue to exist and the contradictions emerge that both lead to the development of political cycles. Technical and technological transformations that contribute to the formation of information and network society, are strengthening the possibilities of ideological and propaganda activities that affect the cyclical political and economic processes. In such conditions, political cycles are becoming more and more emergent, which is largely due to the influence of social networks, computer games, and "new media" on people's political preferences and their political activity. The cyclical processes of establishing economic and political hegemony in the capitalist world system determine the dominance of the political cycles of leading countries over those of less developed countries. Improving production and dissemination technologies enhances the ability of leading countries to influence the political cycles of less developed countries, and the use of "soft power" is becoming an increasingly important tool of geopolitical struggle in the process of deployment of long-term global political cycles.
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Bryndin, Evgeniy. "Digital Cyclical Ecological Regional Self-Sufficient Economy." Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education 2, no. 2 (June 14, 2020): 104–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.35877/454ri.asci22101.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The economy is sphere of public work and the set of relations that form in the system of production, distribution, exchange and consumption. The paper examines the digital, cyclical, environmental and regional aspects of a cyclical digital environmental regional economy. The digital direction of the economy uses digital twins and robots as assistants to improve its quality, productivity and efficiency. The cyclical economy uses savings and profits to boost its competition and development. The environmental direction of the economy maintains the viability of the environment. The regional economy increases diversification and capacity of local production and preserves the environment in its territory regardless of the type of economic activity. Cyclical aspects of the economy of self-sufficiency mainly concern the financial round-up, and the closed reproduction cycle. Business models of cyclic reproduction realize its economic self-sufficiency. At present, Russia, China, the United States and EU integration education have achieved the optimal level of national economic self-sufficiency. Russia, the United States, and the EU have the necessary financial and human resources. At the same time, China, with excessive human resources, is pursuing a policy of expansion into developing and underdeveloped countries. The main reason for countries to abandon autarky policies in favor of globalization of research activities is the decline in profit levels. The reason for this situation lies in the availability of cheap labour and favourable economic conditions, and production in countries is therefore cheaper. The reason for globalization and the international division of labour lies in maximizing profits, and autarks in maximizing national production, i.e. self-sufficiency. The unity of the Autarky State must be ensured by the existence of economic, historical, cultural ties, as well as by national equilibrium.
18
Das, Panchanan. "Entrepreneurial Impulse, Investment Behavior, and Economic Fluctuations–A VAR Analysis with Indian Data." Asian Development Review 32, no. 2 (September 2015): 1–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00049.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This study analyzes the observed behavior of growth cycles and the dynamics of economic fluctuations in terms of entrepreneurial impulse with Indian macroeconomic time series data for more than 60 years. The fluctuations of investment are explained in terms of persistence, volatility, and comovements of the cyclical components. The study observes that the growth cycles of private investment were much more volatile than the growth cycles of public investment and gross domestic product. Investments in India were procyclical, but their growth cycles became acyclical. This study observes that the fluctuations of growth cycle frequencies of private investment appeared even when there were no shocks to gross domestic product. Such investment behavior may be because of the self-fulfilling beliefs of investors. Private investment in India has not been badly affected by the severe balance of payments crises. Rather, a cyclical downturn was seen as an opportunity to invest by the large business houses.
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Sun, Yanfang, Haiyan Xie, and Xirong Niu. "Characteristics of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Development of the Chinese Construction Industry." Sustainability 11, no. 17 (August 21, 2019): 4523. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11174523.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In the course of operation, the construction industry will repeat deviations and adjustments to it equilibrium state. Understanding the development fluctuations of the construction industry is critical to the formulation of a country’s sustainable development strategy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the development trend and fluctuation periodicity of the construction industry, particularly the deviation and characteristics of the development. In this paper, based on the H-P filtering method, the residual method for measurement of macro-economic cycle fluctuation is used to divide the periodic fluctuation of the Chinese construction industry into five rounds of economic cycles since the reform and opening up. The results are tested by a random test model and a self-correlation coefficient test model. The longitudinal time-series of data investigated in this research is the constant-price, gross output values of the construction industry in China in the period of 1980–2017 for a total of 38 years based on the national annual statistics. The results of the mathematical test show that the peak or valley of the economic cycle fluctuation of the construction industry in China reappears about every seven years or so. It shows that since the reform and opening up, the peak position of the cycle fluctuation of the Chinese construction industry began to decrease gradually, the valley level began to rise gradually, the volatility showed a downward trend, and the construction industry cycle fluctuation entered a steady and smooth process. The results of this study provide new comprehension of the development trend of construction industry and build the theoretical basis for governments and enterprises to judge the future development trends when formulating the relevant policies.
20
Kitrar, L. A., T. M. Lipkind, and G. V. Ostapkovich. "Economic Development and Cyclical Sentiment of Russian Entrepreneurs After the Recession in 2014-2016." Voprosy statistiki 27, no. 1 (February 14, 2020): 53–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2020-27-1-53-70.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The core objective of the study, results of which are summarized in this article, is to determine the effectiveness of using assessments of economic agents in the analysis of sectoral and macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cross impact of economic growth and entrepreneurial behavior. It is assumed that economical cyclicity is produced not only by macroeconomic shocks, but also by the impulses generated in the business environment. The sentiment and expectations of entrepreneurs are considered in this case both as a consequence of the ongoing economic events, and as a warning factor affecting the economic decision-making.To test the hypothesis, the authors used results of all sectoral business tendency monitoring of the HSE and Rosstat, which reflect the aggregate sentiment and expectations of about 24 thousand entrepreneurs and 5 thousand consumers. The monitoring results are combined into the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), which calculation algorithm is based on the generally accepted international methodology and is updated taking into account the specifics of the Russian economy.The joint decomposition of the time series of the ESI and the reference series of GDP growth with extracting growth cycles and the dating turning points confirms the cyclical correspondence of the dynamics of the analyzed indicators. An empirical consistency of ESI and GDP time series is revealed based on cross-correlations, a long-term linear regression and through a two-dimensional vector autoregression model. This model is used for short-term forecasting; the forecasting results indicate an unstable and slow acceleration of GDP growth in 2020.Given the ESI calculation efficiency and a noticeable advance in its publication compared to publication of official data on GDP growth, as well as ESI statistical effectiveness, it can be concluded that the aggregate estimates of entrepreneurial and consumer sentiment accumulated over a 20-year period are acceptable and reliable as leading information on economic growth in the country.
21
Nazarkevych, Ihor. "Evolution of economic cycles and determination of structural changes in the national economy." Socio-Economic Problems of the Modern Period of Ukraine, no. 3(143) (2020): 3–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.36818/2071-4653-2020-3-1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The role of state structural regulation of the national economy in the conditions of the high volatility of economic cycles is substantiated. The key parameters of the system of state regulation of the economy in terms of permanent structural transformation and cyclical national economy are defined as the following: efficiency, balance of interests of all participants in economic relations, socialization and greening of economic processes. The evolution of basic theories of cyclical economic development is studied, and their main features in terms of factor influence on cyclicity and structural transformations in the system of the national economy are determined. The scientific and methodological approach to determining the content of structural changes in the national economy is determined as a transition from one paradigm of development and economic growth to another paradigm more adequate to the global challenges and domestic demands faced by society. The author's definitions of the structural-economic conceptual-categorical apparatus that reflects the transformation processes in the cyclical economy are suggested, in particular: the structure of the national economy (structural basis); structural changes (transformation, shifts); structural policy; structural reform (restructuring); structural crisis. The cyclical development of the economy is characterized, which is often accompanied by such undesirable parameters as discreteness, uncertainty, chaos, which affects economic growth and resilience of the national economy to recession shocks. Timely structural reform is determined to be the only vector to prevent it, including ensuring the availability of developed domestic markets, high competitiveness of domestic companies in global markets, high level of solvency of domestic consumers and efficient structure of the national economy. These factors will help reduce the level of negative effects arising from market fluctuations.
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Bredikhin, V. V., T. S. Kolmykova, and E. O. Astapenko. "PROBLEMS OF INVESTMENT SUPPORT FOR INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT." Proceedings of the Southwest State University 21, no. 5 (October 28, 2017): 114–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.21869/2223-1560-2017-21-5-114-122.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The current socio-economic situation in Russia is developing under the influence of anti-Russian sanctions, the intensification of global competition, the complication of the world political situation. Against this background, a complex problem requiring an integrated and systemic solution is to ensure sustainable parameters of economic growth. As the economy has a tendency to repeat the dynamics, it allows us to identify the cyclical nature of its development. Successful industrial development is replaced by periods of decline, accompanied by inflation and unemployment, a decline in production and consumption. The study of socio-economic dynamics in a long-term retrospective allows us to identify patterns in development and develop a set of anti-crisis measures. In this paper, we study the dynamics of socio-economic processes that accompany the development of the national economic complex in recent years. Analysis of the dynamics of the GDP of the Russian Federation made it possible to discover the cyclical nature of its development. From 2002 to 2015, two cycles were identified: the first - from 2002 to 2008; the second - from 2009 to 2015. After the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, Russia noted the post-crisis economic recovery, which was interrupted in 2013-2014 by the introduction of international economic sanctions against Russia. The slowdown in economic growth since 2014 was determined by external shocks in the energy and raw materials markets, as well as by geopolitical tensions and, as a result, the closure of foreign capital markets for a number of Russian companies and banks. Analysis of investment as the main catalyst for economic growth showed a fall in investment volumes amid the effects of the crises of 2008 and 2013-2015. A decrease in investment activity in the regional structure of investments was noted. The modern tendencies in reorientation of regional investments in the branch, not subject to sanctions influence and working on realization of import substitution policy are revealed. Groups of activities aimed at stimulating capital investments and ensuring sustainable economic development in the regions have been formed.
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KOSTETSKYI, Volodymyr. "INFLUENCE OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES OF BUSINESS ENTITIES ACTIVITY ON INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMY OF THE COUNTRY." WORLD OF FINANCE, no. 1(58) (2019): 132–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/sf2019.01.132.
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Introduction. In today's conditions of economic development, business entities face the challenge of reformatting systems, methods, methods and economic mechanisms for managing sustainability in terms of innovative approach. Therefore, the solution of economic, social, managerial and personal problems in contemporary society implies a specific innovative style of management, which is based on innovation, innovation, systematic and continuous innovation activities. Purpose. Identification of peculiarities of the development of innovation activity of business entities in Ukraine, positive features and deficiencies that exist, and clarification of the role of the state in the creation of general institutional coordinates for economic entities as an element of the system of innovative development of the country's economy. Results. The study of the mechanism of innovation activity allows us to conclude that the formation and development of an innovative management strategy by an economic entity is an integration process that combines the processes of forecasting, planning and accounting of the resource base of the enterprise in the long-term, medium-term and short-term prospects in the new conditions modernization of the state economy. Creating a national innovation system is to build a holistic system that effectively transforms new knowledge into new technologies, products and services that find their real consumers in national or global markets. At the same time, attention should be paid to the development of an innovative strategy by each domestic enterprise, which will create conditions for positive trends in the development of this process. Conclusions. Innovations are essentially related to the cyclical development of the economy, as they initiate new technological developments. Therefore, in an innovative economy, the state plays an important role in implementing anti-cyclical economic regulation, smoothing out cyclical fluctuations and mitigating their effects. In today's conditions, further development of recommendations for improving the methodology for assessing the innovative potential of industrial enterprises, optimizing the management of innovation activity in the state and its individual regions, the choice of forms and methods of state support for innovation projects in order to improve the investment climate and increase inflow of innovative investments is necessary.
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KOSTETSKYІ, Volodymyr, and Ivan PRYMACHENKO. "MODERN ASPECTS OF SEARCHING INCENTIVES TO INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY OF BUSINESS ENTITIES." WORLD OF FINANCE, no. 2(63) (2020): 126–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/sf2020.02.126.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Introduction. In In today’s conditions of economic development, business entities face the challenge of reformatting systems, methods and economic mechanisms for managing sustainability in terms of innovative approach. Therefore, the solution of economic, social, managerial and personal problems in contemporary society implies a specific innovative style of management, which is based on innovation, innovation, systematic and continuous innovation activities. The purpose is to identificatt the positive trends and shortcomings of the processes of innovative development of economic entities that exist in Ukraine, and to clarificate of modern scientific approaches to encourage businesses to innovate in order to ensure financial stability and innovative development of the country’s economy. Results. The study of the mechanism of innovation activity allows us to conclude that the formation and development of an innovative management strategy by an economic entity is an integration process that combines the processes of forecasting, planning and accounting of the resource base of the enterprise in the long-term, medium-term and short-term prospects in the new conditions modernization of the state economy. Creating a national innovation system is to build a holistic system that effectively transforms new knowledge into new technologies, products and services that find their real consumers in national or global markets. At the same time, attention should be paid to the development of an innovative strategy by each domestic enterprise, which will create conditions for positive trends in the development of this process. Conclusions. Innovations are essentially related to the cyclical development of the economy, as they initiate new technological developments. Therefore, in an innovative economy, the state plays an important role in implementing anti-cyclical economic regulation, smoothing out cyclical fluctuations and mitigating their effects. To ensure the further development of innovation in Ukraine, it is necessary to comprehensively use methods to stimulate innovation, in particular the improvement of tax legislation; improving the legal framework for venture funds; improving the mechanism of protection of intellectual property rights; ensuring effective cooperation between the scientific and business sectors in the field of innovation.
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Zhou, Haigang. "Cyclical comovements of the world equity indexes." Managerial Finance 42, no. 5 (May 9, 2016): 472–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/mf-11-2014-0287.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study synchronization in stock index cycles across 82 countries and the linkage between macroeconomic and financial integration and stock market synchronization. Design/methodology/approach – The author document the synchronization structure of the world equity index cycles and its evolution over time. The author examine the explanatory power of various economic and financial variables on cycle comovements. Findings – Trade openness, capital openness, and an EU membership contribute to higher stock index cycle synchronization. Additionally, the macroeconomic and financial variables have asymmetric impacts on countries of different development levels. Originality/value – The author is the first to thoroughly chronicle the turning points, i.e., bear and bull regimes, of world equity indexes and empirically examine determinants of their cyclical comovement across nations.
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DESYATNYUK, Oksana, and Taras MARSHALOK. "ANTI-CYCLICAL FISCAL REGULATION OF THE WORLDWIDE COUNTRIES’ ECONOMIES – OPPORTUNITIES FOR UKRAINE." Vol 18, No 2 (2019), Vol 18, No 2 (2019) (2019): 245–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/jee2019.02.245.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The state fiscal policy and its instruments are the main means of economic fluctuations management and they occupy a leading place in the system of the state anti-cyclical regulation of the economy. Special theoretical and methodological aspects of the fiscal policy and analysis of its influence on the course of the economic cycle were well-reasoned on the ground of a large number of scientific publications. However, it is relevant to research into this problem using the pragmatic approach, which will allow to obtain qualitative scientific results and make the necessary conclusions. In particular, the analysis of fiscal processes in the countries with different economic development and social standards will allow to distinguish the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing patterns of fiscal policy models and types and will determine the impact of such policies on economic growth and overcoming the economic crises in these countries.
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Kim, Jung Seek. "National Culture and the Cyclical Behavior of Research-and-Development Expenditure." Journal of International Marketing 29, no. 2 (April 5, 2021): 81–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1069031x21994106.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This article examines the cyclical behavior of business (firm-financed) research-and-development (R&D) expenditure at the national level, using a panel of 64 countries spanning four decades. R&D is considerably more volatile than gross domestic product and tends to be procyclical. The author adopts the Hofstede framework to systematically investigate cross-national heterogeneity in comovement and volatility of R&D. Similar to prior studies, a higher R&D intensity (R&D expenditure/gross domestic product) is associated with countries that are more accepting of uncertainty, long-term oriented, and indulgent. Notably, R&D behaves less procyclically in countries that are more accepting of uncertainty, individualistic, long-term oriented, and indulgent, and it is less volatile in countries that are more masculine, individualistic, long-term oriented, and indulgent. That is, a culture with a higher propensity to invest in R&D tends to follow business cycles less closely (i.e., lower comovement) and have more persistent spending over time (i.e., lower volatility). Furthermore, higher comovement or volatility of R&D indeed harms national productivity and innovativeness. Therefore, this research broadens the understanding of the role national culture plays by demonstrating that (1) it considerably affects the cyclical behavior of R&D and (2) this cyclical behavior is another conduit through which culture influences economic performance.
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Сироткина, Н. В., and М. С. Агафонова. "ADAPTIVE BEHAVIOR OF CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES IN THE CONDITIONS OF VARIOUS PHASES OF CYCLICAL DEVELOPMENT." Organizer of Production, no. 4 (February 9, 2022): 68–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.36622/vstu.2021.13.48.007.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Введение. В работе показано, что благодаря законам циклического развития строительных предприятий могут совершенствовать деятельность строительных предприятий, как во внешней, так и во внутренней среде. На уровне непосредственно предприятия часто встает проблема по выявлению равновесия и наиболее оптимального соотношения рыночных элементов, а также соблюдения пропорциональности между элементами внутренней и внешней экономической среды. Доказано, что адаптация - комплексный процесс, нацеленный на соединение форм адаптации, инновационных возможностей и экономической эффективности, индикаторов управления, направленных на повышение экономической эффективности строительных предприятий. Данные и методы. Исследование основано на методах научной абстракции, диалектическом и методологическом. На основе изучения теоретических аспектов форм адаптации строительных предприятий, выделены объекты исследования - строительные предприятия, выступающие базовым элементом строительного комплекса РФ. Полученные результаты. Целью данного исследования является исследование адаптационного поведения строительных предприятий на основе фаз циклического развития. В данном исследовании показано поведение строительных предприятий и представлены инструменты управления ими, а так же формы адаптации на основе фаз циклического развития, которые предприятия могут использовать для эффективного и устойчивого развития. Заключение. В статье представлены идеи использования формы адаптации, такой как интеграция. Указанные проблемы носят теоретико-методологический и научный интерес, а также значительный практический, прикладной характер. Разработки в данном направлении внесут достаточный вклад в развитие управления адаптацией строительных предприятий на разных стадиях развития отрасли. Соответственно в рамках настоящего этапа неопределенности нужно продолжать развивать практические и теоретические разработки в части разработки и применения экономических инструментов, обеспечивающих стабильное развитие предприятий строительной отрасли. В результате будут созданы условия для устойчивого развития Центрально-Черноземного региона и укрепления национальной экономики. Introduction. The paper shows that due to the laws of cyclical development of construction enterprises, they can improve the activities of construction enterprises, both in the external and internal environment. At the level of the enterprise itself, the problem often arises of identifying the equilibrium and the most optimal ratio of market elements, as well as compliance with proportionality between the elements of the internal and external economic environment. It is proved that adaptation is a complex process aimed at combining forms of adaptation, innovative opportunities and economic efficiency, management indicators aimed at improving the economic efficiency of construction enterprises. Data and methods. The research is based on the methods of scientific abstraction, dialectical and methodological. Based on the study of the theoretical aspects of the forms of adaptation of construction enterprises, the objects of research are identified - construction enterprises that act as a basic element of the construction complex of the Russian Federation. The results obtained. The purpose of this study is to study the adaptive behavior of construction enterprises based on the phases of cyclical development. This study shows the behavior of construction enterprises and presents their management tools, as well as forms of adaptation based on the phases of cyclical development that enterprises can use for effective and sustainable development. Conclusion. The article presents the ideas of using a form of adaptation, such as integration. These problems are of theoretical, methodological and scientific interest, as well as significant practical, applied nature. Developments in this direction make a sufficient contribution to the development of adaptation management of construction enterprises at different stages of industry development. Accordingly, within the framework of this stage of uncertainty, it is necessary to continue to develop practical and theoretical developments in terms of the development and application of economic instruments that ensure the stable development of construction industry enterprises. As a result, conditions will be created for the sustainable development of the Central Chernozem region and the strengthening of the national economy.
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Marshalok, Taras. "PECULIARITIES OF STATE POLICY IN THE FIELD OF ANTI-CYCLIC REGULATION OF ECONOMY - THEORY AND METHODOLOGY." Regional’ni aspekti rozvitku produktivnih sil Ukraїni, no. 24 (2019): 63–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/rarrpsu2019.24.063.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Introduction. Economic cycles, the periodic emergence of economic imbalances, deep economic crises, the need for effective management of economic fluctuations have created the need to develop an effective mechanism for anti-cyclical economic regulation. As a result of the in-depth study of these problems, it has been established that the most effective instruments of anti-cyclical economic regulation are financial instruments owned by the state and divided into monetary and fiscal ones. They in turn are divided into discretionary and non-discretionary, and regulated by legislative acts and regulatory documents. As a result of a retrospective analysis of management of economic cycles through the use of financial means of the state, it has been proved that monetary policy is less sustainable than economic fiscal policy. On the contrary, for the last century, precarious monetary policy has caused many financial and economic upheavals; the world has seen at least three monetary and monetary systems that have been subject to a downturn every time. Therefore, it is not worth considering monetary policy sufficiently effective in the implementation of anti-cyclical regulation. While fiscal policies each time, in all economic crises, have played the role of a "lifeline" for countries that have taken anti-cyclical economic regulation measures. That is why the study of the problem of effective state management of socio-economic fluctuations is one of the most urgent issues of economic science. The goal of the work. To investigate the essence of monetary and fiscal instruments of counter-cyclical regulation of the economy, to identify their strengths and weaknesses, to propose effective mechanisms of counter-cyclical regulation of the economy, which would ensure economic development in the country. Methods. In the course of the research, general scientific and empirical methods of economic science based on a systematic approach are used, in particular: methods of scientific knowledge: dialectical and logical, analysis and synthesis, generalization, graphical, scientific abstraction - in the study of state financial policy in the field of anti-cyclical regulation of the economy. Results. The article deals with the essence of monetary and monetary systems, analyzes their weak and strong sides, identifies the causes of their decline. It was established that monetary factors influenced the emergence of centers of economic crises. The essence of fiscal policy, its types and models, and the way in which its instruments influence the course of the economic cycle are considered and deeply analyzed. The mechanisms of fiscal policy, which should be used by the state at different stages of the economic cycle, are singled out. It is proved that in economically developed countries during the economic crisis it is expedient to use a socially-oriented model of fiscal policy of acyclic nature that most effectively influences the overcoming of economic imbalances and is capable of ensuring the economic equilibrium in the country as soon as possible. Countries that effectively applied the liberal model of fiscal policy, in the conditions of the economic crisis, were forced to resort to transformation towards a more rigid fiscal intervention by the state in economic processes-they were forced to use socially-oriented, acyclic fiscal policies. Only the wider participation of the state in the regulation of economic processes have ensured the rapid and effective overcoming of economic crises, and contributed to the achievement of economic development in most countries of the world. Perspectives. The results of scientific research can be useful for scientists and practitioners who are engaged in research on problems of anti-cyclical regulation of the economy, state financial policy and, in particular, fiscal policy.
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Klepach, A., and G. Kuranov. "Cyclical Waves in the Economic Development of the U.S. and russia (Issues of Methodology and Analysis)." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 11 (November 20, 2013): 4–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2013-11-4-33.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article describes the methodology for identifying and analyzing economic cycles, which are based on historical spectral approach that combines the advantages of the historical and economic analysis and spectral method of the study of economic series. The proposed approach is used to isolate and analyze both their own regular fluctuations of economic dynamics inherent in the developed economies and the vibrations induced by technological and external economic shocks. The analysis has been carried out on the basis of data on the dynamics of the post-war U.S. economy as the main driver of world cycles, and of Russia’s economy from 1861 to 2012 using the latest research on the reconstruction of the time-series of its economic dynamics. Finally, conclusions are drawn in relation to the state economic policy in the conditions of the global cyclical development.
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Guo, Xiangdong, Pei Lung, Jianli Sui, Ruiping Zhang, and Chao Wang. "Agricultural Support Policies and China’s Cyclical Evolutionary Path of Agricultural Economic Growth." Sustainability 13, no. 11 (May 29, 2021): 6134. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13116134.
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Due to the weak nature of agricultural production, governments usually adopt supportive policies to protect food security. To discern the growth of agriculture from 2001 to 2018 under China’s agricultural support policies, we use the nonlinear MS(M)-AR(p) model to distinguish China’s agricultural economic cycle into three growth regimes—rapid, medium, and low—and analyze the probability of shifts and maintenance among the different regimes. We further calculated the average duration of each regime. Moreover, we calculated the growth regime transfers for specific times. In this study, we find that China’s agricultural economy has maintained a relatively consistent growth trend with the support of China’s proactive agricultural policies. However, China’s agricultural economy tends to maintain a low-growth status in the long-term. Finally, we make policy recommendations for agricultural development based on our findings that continue existing agricultural policies and strengthen support for agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry.
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McGough, A. J., and S. Tsolacos. "The Stylised Facts of the UK Commercial Building Cycles." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 29, no. 3 (March 1997): 485–500. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a290485.
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In the present study we undertake a statistical analysis of the cyclical properties of certain economic, financial, and real property-market variables and attempt to establish the stylised facts in relation to the office, industrial, and retail property cycle in the United Kingdom. We build upon the methodology which has been adopted in modern business-cycle research to confirm the cyclical regularities of aggregate variables and business fluctuations across countries and over time. The results of this study establish for certain variables the presence of relative cyclical movements over the phases of the property cycles which conform to theoretical intuition. They also identify cyclical irregularities across property sectors, which the existing property-cycle literature would need to address.
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Olakojo, Solomon A., Abayomi T. Onanuga, and Olaronke T. Onanuga. "Cyclical fluctuations of economic growth and monetary policy in Nigeria: does fiscal policy also matter?" Journal of Contemporary African Studies 39, no. 1 (October 26, 2020): 34–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02589001.2020.1822992.
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Coclanis, Peter A., and John Komlos. "Nutrition and Economic Development in Post-Reconstruction South Carolina." Social Science History 19, no. 1 (1995): 91–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0145553200017235.
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The determination of anthropometric historians to unearth the broad patterns of human biological well-being is now too well known to need reiteration. From Richard Steckel's exploratory essays, which could be taken as the launching manifesto of the discipline, to the most recent publications, many hundreds of thousands of records from nearly all continents of the globe have been examined (Mascie-Taylor 1991; Steckel 1979). All of this effort notwithstanding, we are still in the initial phases of this research program, with many important features of the agenda remaining unsettled (Floud, Wachter, and Gregory 1990; Fogel 1993; Komlos 1989; Mokyr and O'Grada 1988). One such question is related to the most startling discovery to date, namely, that as part of its adaptability to its socioeconomic environment, human physical stature has undergone cyclical fluctuations during the course of the last quarter of a millennium (Fogel 1986; Komlos 1987,1994a, 1994b; Nicholas and Oxley 1993).
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Шедий and Mariya Shediy. "CORRUPTIONALIZATION OF POWER AS A FACTOR OF DEFORMATION OF GOVERNMENT." Journal of Public and Municipal Administration 4, no. 2 (June 25, 2015): 68–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/13175.
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This article analyzes the combination of factors that contribute and are directly involved in corruptionalization of the Russian government. On the basis of the analysis the author comes to the conclusion that the cause of corruption lies in the nature of the state and is generated by processes occurring in it. Various political, social, economic and other factors at different stages of the existence of society affect corruption processes in many ways. The cyclic nature of corruption processes is primarily due to the cyclical development of economic, political and socio-cultural relations.
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KAYLI, Ya, and V. V. VELIKOROSSOV. "CURRENT STATE AND PROBLEMS OF DEVELOPMENT OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC COMMERCIAL RELATIONS OF RUSSIA." EKONOMIKA I UPRAVLENIE: PROBLEMY, RESHENIYA 2, no. 6 (2021): 139–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2021.06.02.021.
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Unsustainable external environment, cyclical and structural risks, pandemic crisis form a new reality, in which the importance of technologies, models and methods of management of foreign economic commercial relations increases. The purpose of the article is to assess the current state and problems of the development of foreign economic commercial relations in Russia. In accordance with the tasks set, the concept and es-sence of foreign economic commercial relations were clarified, the problems of the development of foreign economic commercial relations of Russia were summarized, and the impact of protectionism, innovation and digitalization on the development of international relations and foreign economic relations was revealed.
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Adesola, Ogunmakin Adeduro, and Dada Raphael Adek . "Impact of oil Revenue on Economic Development in Nigeria [1981–2012]." Journal of Social and Development Sciences 5, no. 2 (June 30, 2014): 73–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jsds.v5i2.807.
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In enhancing proper and adequate economic development in Nigeria, there is a need to manage macroeconomic stability and pro-cyclical government expenditure pattern by improving non oil growth performance. It was based on this premise that, this study sought to examine the economic development and oil revenue in Nigeria. In doing this, regression analysis was carried out using SPSS. The result revealed the overdependence of Nigeria economy on oil revenue. Thus, this paper recommends policies and functional institutions to checkmate the poor transparency in the management of oil revenue that robbed the people of their potential benefits and economy diversification that will lead to improvement in revenue generation via other sources in the economy.
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Legassicke, Michelle. "Cyclical Youth-Led Conflict as an Early Warning Indicator." Allons-y: Journal of Children, Peace and Security 1, no. 1 (September 1, 2016): 10–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.15273/allons-y.v1i1.10048.
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The dynamics of conflict are shifting. In the 2011 World Development Report, the World Bank stated that conflicts are now increasingly cyclical and intractable events; 90 percent of the civil wars that occurred in the 2000s were fought within countries that had experienced a domestic conflict in the past 30 years (World Bank, 2011). Countries are more likely to experience cycles of violence due to the persistence of weak state structures that cannot extend their reach into peripheral regions, leading to local instability (Kingston, 2004). Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the international community observed several states – in which external actors provided 50 percent of those states’ overall revenues – relapse into civil war (Call, 2012). Given the significant investment by the international community in peacebuilding projects in post-conflict states – whether democratic reforms, economic reforms, capacity building, or sustainable development – there needs to be a significant increase in research focused on civil war recurrence, as the trajectory of post-conflict states cannot be guaranteed without sustainable peace.
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Malik, Afia, and Ather Maqsood Ahmed. "The Relationship between Real Wages and Output: Evidence from Pakistan." Pakistan Development Review 39, no. 4II (December 1, 2000): 1111–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v39i4iipp.1111-1126.
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Information on wage levels is essential in evaluating the living standards and conditions of work and life of the workers. Since nominal wage fails to explain the purchasing power of employees, real wage is considered as a major indicator of employees purchasing power and can be used as proxy for their level of income. Any fluctuations in the real wage rate have a significant impact on poverty and the distribution of income. When used in relation with other economic variables, for instance employment or output they are valuable indicators in the analysis of business cycles. There has been a long debate regarding the relationship between real wages and the employment (output). Despite the apparent simplicity, the relationship between real wages and output has remained deceptive both theoretically and empirically. Keynes (1936) viewed cyclical movements in employment along a stable labour demand schedule thus indicating counter cyclical real wages. His deduction is in line with sticky wages and sticky expectations, which augments models like Phillips curve. In these models real wages behaved as counter-cyclical as nominal wages are slow to adjust during recession (decrease in aggregate demand and associated slowdown in price growth). Stickiness of wages or expectations shifts the labour supply over the business cycles [Abraham and Haltiwanger (1995)]. Barro (1990) and Christiano and Eichenbaum (1992) have associated these labour supply shifts with intertemporal labour-leisure substitution. This in response to temporary changes in real interest rates (fiscal policy shocks) could yield counter-cyclical real wages. However, Long and Plosser (1983) and Kydland and Prescott (1982) while studying the real business cycle models highlight on the technology shocks which leads to pro-cyclical real wages.
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Lisý, Ján. "The impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth and cyclical development of the economy." RUDN Journal of Economics 26, no. 3 (2018): 439–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.22363/2313-2329-2018-26-3-439-446.
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Timohin, Dmitriy, Lyubov' Degteva, and Aleksandr Panin. "FORMATION OF THE "ECONOMIC CROSS" MODEL OF SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA IN CONDITIONS OF CYCLICAL DECLINE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY." Russian Journal of Management 8, no. 4 (January 25, 2021): 21–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.29039/2409-6024-2020-8-4-21-25.
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The article examines the problems of cyclical development of the national economy. The results of superimposition of Kondratyev’s (technological) cycle and Kuznets’ (construction) cycle in conditions of geoeconomic turbulence were investigated. Based on the construction of the model of the "economic cross" of the intersection of production and technological cycles, the authors proposed a medium-term forecast of the main development of the global economy and developed a system of recommendations for optimizing sectoral development in the conditions of the expected economic decline.
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Хашеми, Д. М. Р. "KEY INDICATORS IN THE CONCEPT OF MODERNIZATION OF TOOLS FOR STRATEGIZING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS." Audit and Financial Analysis, no. 5 (November 30, 2020): 49–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.38097/afa.2020.19.64.007.
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В статье исследуется система показателей в концепции модернизации инструментария стратегирования развития социоэкономических систем, а именно: анализируются основные показатели развития социоэкономической системы; раскрывается онтология социоэкономической системы; исследуется циклическая модернизация инструментария развития социоэкономических процессов. The article examines the system of indicators in the concept of modernization of instrumentation strategies for the development of socio-economic systems, namely, analyzes the main indicators of development of socio-economic system; reveals the ontology of the socio-economic system; explores the cyclical upgrading of instrumentation development of socioeconomic processes.
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Хашеми, Д. М. Р. "KEY INDICATORS IN THE CONCEPT OF MODERNIZATION OF TOOLS FOR STRATEGIZING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS." Audit and Financial Analysis, no. 5 (November 30, 2020): 49–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.38097/afa.2020.19.64.007.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
В статье исследуется система показателей в концепции модернизации инструментария стратегирования развития социоэкономических систем, а именно: анализируются основные показатели развития социоэкономической системы; раскрывается онтология социоэкономической системы; исследуется циклическая модернизация инструментария развития социоэкономических процессов. The article examines the system of indicators in the concept of modernization of instrumentation strategies for the development of socio-economic systems, namely, analyzes the main indicators of development of socio-economic system; reveals the ontology of the socio-economic system; explores the cyclical upgrading of instrumentation development of socioeconomic processes.
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Sehrawat, Madhu, and A. K. Giri. "A Sectoral Analysis of the Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indian Economy." Global Business Review 18, no. 4 (May 9, 2017): 911–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0972150917692242.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The present study examines the relationship between Indian stock market and economic growth from a sectoral perspective using quarterly time-series data from 2003:Q4 to 2014:Q4. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach bounds test confirm the existence of a cointegrating relationship between sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and sector-specific stock indices. The empirical results reveal that sector-specific economic growth are significantly influenced by changes in the respective sector-specific stock price indices in the long run as well as in the short run. Apart from that, the control variables, such as trade openness and inflation, act as the instrument variables in explaining the variations in the sector-specific GDP of the economy. The results of Granger causality test demonstrate unidirectional long-run as well as short-run causality running from sector specific stock prices to respective sector GDP. The findings suggest that economic growth of the country is sensitive to respective sub-sector stock market investments. The findings highlight the reasons for cyclical and counter-cyclical business phase for the overall economy.
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Mau, V. "Russia’s Social and Economic Policy in 2014: Finding New Frontiers." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 2 (February 20, 2015): 5–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2015-2-5-31.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The paper deals with the roots and features of current Russian economic problems as a combination of structural and institutional crises, cyclical and external shocks. Mobilization and liberalization are discussed as two key economic policy alternatives. The analysis includes historical retrospection which provides some important lessons from economic development in the 20th century. Special attention is paid to the desirable policy to stimulate economic growth.
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Talimova, Lyazai A. "Transformation of the paradigm of financial architecture in the conditions of cyclical and digital development of the economy." Research result Economic Research 7, no. 3 (October 1, 2021): 89–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.18413/2409-1634-2021-7-3-0-8.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article substantiates the importance and identifies the factors of innovative economic development, among which the special importance of financial architecture is emphasized; summarizes the essence, factors, principles and specific features of financial architecture; reveals the characteristic features of the manifestation and perception of cyclical economic processes and countercyclical regulation; identifies the problems of regulating international financial markets, the role and importance of the banking system in the financial architecture, the interdependence of credit relations and the development of the real sector of the economy; the factors that led to the need to restructure the international monetary system were identified.
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Ayyubov, M. R. "Macroeconomic model of safe functioning of the national economy of Azerbaijan in the long-term period." Upravlenie 7, no. 2 (August 8, 2019): 71–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.26425/2309-3633-2019-2-71-86.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In the 90s of the twentieth century, due to the formation of new independent states in the post-Soviet space, as well as a change in the constitutional foundations of Eastern European countries, the governments of the countries were faced with the task of ensuring economic security of the countries.In the scientific literature, there are three main paradigms for solving the problem of the country’s economic security: the paradigm of the country’s national interests; the paradigm of independent and independent development of the national economy; paradigm of sustainable development of the national economy. The economic system of the country, with its characteristic mechanism, operates in a cyclical mode, consisting of four stages: development, slowdown in development and stagnation (crisis), recession and depression, stabilization. It is necessary to have a toolkit (methodology), allowing one to foresee the onset and completion of all stages of the functioning cycle, the lead-time of more than 30 years. The structural and conjuncture equation of the country’s economy functioning cycle in the long-term period, with a leadtime of more than 30 years, can be used to determine the time of occurrence of economic threats in the national economy. The basis of the macroeconomic model of safe functional organization of the national economy of the country has been laid the equation of the cyclic functioning of the national economy, as a dynamic system, developed by the author, the equation of the cyclic functioning of the national economy of the country on the long-term period. Based on the equation of the cyclical functioning of the national economy of Azerbaijan, the time of the beginning of the slowing down rate of development of the national economy of the Republic has been determined. Three basic conditions for the safe functioning of the national economy have been offered. Based on the method, developed by the author, the basic conditions for the safe functioning of the national economy of Azerbaijan have been determined.
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Sukharev, Alexander, Olga Smirnova, and Nelly Orlova. "Fiscal And Monetary Policy: Problems Of Coordination (Theory And Experience Of Russia)." REICE: Revista Electrónica de Investigación en Ciencias Económicas 8, no. 15 (July 5, 2020): 242–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/reice.v8i15.9956.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The issues of interaction between monetary and financial authorities in the framework of effective policy aimed at achieving stabilization and development of the economy are considered. Coordination of actions of monetary and financial authorities is considered in the context of anti-cyclical and non-cyclical economic policy. Special attention is paid to coordinating actions in this area between the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Russian Federation
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Berzon, Stanislav. "QUANTITATIVE ASPECTS OF THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CRISIS IN UKRAINE." Academic Review 2, no. 55 (2021): 13–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.32342/2074-5354-2021-2-55-2.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article attempts to quantify the main parameters that characterize the economic crisis in Ukraine. Historical and systemic approaches are used as a basis of research methodology. In the course of the research the following methods were used: analysis to determine the comparative dynamics of macroeconomic indicators; Fourier analysis to determine the cyclical nature of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, the calculation of the duration and length of cycles; f-statistics to confirm the validity of the performed theoretical approximation of the lines of dynamics; analysis of variance to assess the variability of macroeconomic indicators; synthesis to build a time map of the aggravation of the crisis period of Ukraine’s economy. A comparative analysis of the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators for the period 2010- 2020 in a quarterly manner. The cyclical nature of such dynamics is determined and formalized, with confirmation of reliability by means of f-statistics at the level of not less than 0.95. Two cycles of dynamics of macroeconomic indicators lasting 4 and 48 quarters were revealed. The beginning (IV quarter of 2010 / I quarter of 2011) and the end (IV quarter of 2023 / I quarter of 2024) of the modern period of economic crisis in Ukraine are determined. The variability of macroeconomic indicators according to their empirical values and deviations from the theoretical approximation of time lines is estimated and it is confirmed that the basis of variability of the analyzed indicators is their random fluctuations around the theoretical approximation of time lines. It was found that the greatest variability is inherent in price indices (consumer and industrial producers). The article further develops the methodological and practical principles of preventing the development of crisis processes in Ukraine by confirming their cyclicality and determining the duration of cycles, which allows to justify the application of countercyclical measures taking into account the specifics of quantitative patterns of crisis processes. The obtained results will contribute to the improvement of state regulation of economic development of Ukraine, taking into account its cyclical nature and duration of the current socioeconomic crisis.
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Minat, V. N. "DYNAMICS OF HEALTHCARE DEVELOPMENT IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA." Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics 4, no. 198 (April 2021): 9–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.46554/1993-0453-2021-4-198-9-16.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The novelty of the work is seen in the combination of theoretical and comparative historical analysis with the cyclical socio-economic development of American society, in relation to the subject of this study – the evolution of US healthcare. The identification and justification of trends in the evolution of American healthcare in terms of ensuring the effectiveness, safety, quality and availability of medical services is based on the traditional methodological basis of statistical and economic analysis of the average annual growth of the main indicators of the development of American healthcare during the formation of its modern institutional, managerial and organizational-functional structure in 1951–2020. The results reflect the general direction of the evolution of US healthcare as a haphazard complex mechanism that functions in direct resonance with the socio-economic cycle.