Статті в журналах: "Critical scenarios"

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Höhne, Gordon, Michael Fuhrmann, and Robert Luckner. "Critical wake vortex encounter scenarios." Aerospace Science and Technology 8, no. 8 (December 2004): 689–701. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ast.2004.07.005.

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Weber, James. "Scenarios in Business Ethics Research: Review, Critical Assessment, and Recommendations." Business Ethics Quarterly 2, no. 2 (April 1992): 137–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3857568.

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A growing number of researchers in the business ethics field have used scenarios as a data gathering technique in their empirical investigations of ethical issues. This paper offers a review and critique of 26 studies that have utilized scenarios to elicit inferences of ethical reasoning, decision making, and/or intended behavior from managerial or student populations. The use of a theoretical foundation, the development of hypotheses, various characteristics germane to the use of scenarios, population and sampling issues, and the use of statistical measures are explored and assessed. In the interest of improving scenario-based research, ten recommendations are presented to guide future scenario research.

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Batsch, Felix, Alireza Daneshkhah, Vasile Palade, and Madeline Cheah. "Scenario Optimisation and Sensitivity Analysis for Safe Automated Driving Using Gaussian Processes." Applied Sciences 11, no. 2 (January 15, 2021): 775. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11020775.

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Assuring the safety of automated vehicles is essential for their timely introduction and acceptance by policymakers and the public. To assess their safe design and robust decision making in response to all possible scenarios, new methods that use a scenario-based testing approach are needed, as testing on public roads in normal traffic would require driving millions of kilometres. We make use of the scenario-based testing approach and propose a method to model simulated scenarios using Gaussian Process based models to predict untested scenario outcomes. This enables us to efficiently determine the performance boundary, where the safe and unsafe scenarios can be evidently distinguished from each other. We present an iterative method that optimises the parameter space of a logical scenario towards the most critical scenarios on this performance boundary. Additionally, we conduct a novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis by efficiently computing several variance-based sensitivity indices using the Gaussian Process models and evaluate the relative importance of the scenario input parameters on the scenario outcome. We critically evaluate and investigate the usefulness of the proposed Gaussian Process based approach as a very efficient surrogate model, which can model the logical scenarios effectively in the presence of uncertainty. The proposed approach is applied on an exemplary logical scenario and shows viability in finding concrete critical scenarios. The reported results, derived from the proposed approach, could pave the way to more efficient testing of automated vehicles and instruct further physical tests on the determined critical scenarios.

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Nazarko, Joanicjusz, and Anna Kononiuk. "THE CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF SCENARIO CONSTRUCTION IN THE POLISH FORESIGHT INITIATIVES." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 19, no. 3 (October 3, 2013): 510–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2013.809030.

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The aim of the article is to present the diagnosis of scenario method application in the Polish foresight initiatives. The concept of scenario method, its evolution, the state of the art of the Polish foresight studies and the critical analysis of the application of this method have been presented. From the questionnaire results the authors have identified (i) the approach used in scenario construction, (ii) the most important phases of scenario construction, (iii) the interconnection of scenario method with other methods of scenario construction, (iv) the profile of experts involved in foresight projects, (v) the profile of experts involved in scenario construction, (vi) the application of the triangulation principle in scenario construction, (vii) the application of wild cards in scenario construction and techniques to identify them, (viii) the average time of scenario construction process, (ix) the linkage of scenarios to other documents, (x) the number of scenarios elaborated upon, and (xi) the main difficulties in the process of scenario construction. To achieve article aims there have been used the following research methods: a literature review, the method of critical analysis and logical construction, survey research, the status of Polish foresight projects, interim and final report analysis. The research has been funded by the National Science Centre in Poland within a research project entitled Scenarios in future shaping and anticipation for foresight studies, project number: 4194/B/H03/2011/40.

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Stedman, Nicole, and Amy Brown. "Critical thinking perspectives of undergraduate students." Advancements in Agricultural Development 1, no. 1 (January 17, 2020): 14–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.37433/aad.v1i1.29.

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Today’s learners need support in not only developing capacity for a global mindset, but also for thinking critically about the world. Employers are seeking graduates who can enter the workforce prepared to work within agriculture with the ability to understand its complexities. Higher education institutions have been called upon to provide this to students and faculty are often charged with this responsibility. However, faculty are often unprepared to provide this level of instruction and need support in order to foster this in the classroom. Student participants in this study were exposed to scenarios, which are a tool used to provide multiple perspectives and outcomes to real-life scenarios. Faculty used the scenarios to complement course instruction with respect to the impacts of climate change on food security and hunger. Using Facione’s (1990) framework for critical thinking skill, statements submitted by students both prior to the scenario and post were analyzed. It was found that while students demonstrated critical thinking in both the pre and post, the post statements were much richer, in-depth, and thoughtful in how critical thinking was demonstrated. This showed that faculty support, combined with innovative teaching methods, like scenarios, will encourage students’ building of capacity for critical thinking.

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Pan, Xing, Lunhu Hu, Ziling Xin, Shenghan Zhou, Yanmei Lin, and Yong Wu. "Risk Scenario Generation Based on Importance Measure Analysis." Sustainability 10, no. 9 (September 7, 2018): 3207. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10093207.

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A risk scenario is a combination of risk events that may result in system failure. Risk scenario analysis is an important part of system risk assessment and avoidance. In engineering activity-based systems, important risk scenarios are related to important events. Critical activities, meanwhile, mean risk events that may result in system failure. This article proposes these definitions of risk event and risk scenario based on the characteristics of risk in engineering activity-based systems. Under the proposed definitions, a risk scenario framework generated based on importance measure analysis is given, in which critical activities analysis, risk event identification, and risk scenario generation are the three main parts. Important risk events are identified according to activities’ uncertain importance measure and important risk scenarios are generated on the basis of a system’s critical activities analysis. In the risk scenario generation process based on importance analysis, the importance degrees of network activities are ranked to identify the subject of risk events, so that risk scenarios can be combined and generated by risk events and the importance of scenarios is analyzed. Critical activities are analyzed by Taguchi tolerance design, mathematical analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation methods. Then the degrees of uncertain importance measure of activities are solved by the three methods and these results are compared. The comparison results in the example show that the proposed method of uncertain importance measure is very effective for distinguishing the importance level of activities in systems. The calculation and simulation results also verify that the risk events composed of critical activities can generate risk scenarios.

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Allidina, Tanvir, Lipika Deka, Daniel Paluszczyszyn, and David Elizondo. "Selecting Non-Line of Sight Critical Scenarios for Connected Autonomous Vehicle Testing." Software 1, no. 3 (July 13, 2022): 244–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/software1030011.

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The on-board sensors of connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are limited by their range and inability to see around corners or blind spots, otherwise known as non-line of sight scenarios (NLOS). These scenarios have the potential to be fatal (critical scenarios) as the sensors may detect an obstacle much later than the amount of time needed for the car to react. In such cases, mechanisms such as vehicular communication are required to extend the visibility range of the CAV. Despite there being a substantial body of work on the development of navigational and communication algorithms for such scenarios, there is no standard method for generating and selecting critical NLOS scenarios for testing these algorithms in a scenario-based simulation environment. This paper puts forward a novel method utilising a genetic algorithm for the selection of critical NLOS scenarios from the set of all possible NLOS scenarios in a particular road environment. The need to select critical scenarios is pertinent as the number of all possible driving scenarios generated is large and testing them against each other is time consuming, unnecessary and expensive. The selected critical scenarios are then validated for criticality by using a series of MATLAB based simulations.

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Ciuchi, S., and A. Crisanti. "Different scenarios for critical glassy dynamics." Europhysics Letters (EPL) 49, no. 6 (March 15, 2000): 754–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1209/epl/i2000-00215-y.

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9

Czimmermann, Peter, and Michal Kohani. "Characteristics of Changes of Transportation Performance for Pairs of Critical Edges." Communications - Scientific letters of the University of Zilina 20, no. 3 (September 30, 2018): 84–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.26552/com.c.2018.3.84-87.

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When the robustness of a public service system design is tested, we can often use scenarios where possible random failures can occur and they can influence the time the service is accessible which is provided for system users. The construction of a suitable scenario is based on the choice of links of the transportation network which influence the system performance in a substantial way. In such scenarios one or multiple arcs can be affected by this failure. In our contribution we present characteristics of pairs of critical arcs that can be used to develop an algorithm for the creation of critical scenarios.

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Cai, Jinkang, Weiwen Deng, Ying Wang, Haoran Guang, Jiangkun Li, and Juan Ding. "Boundary Scenario Generation for HAVs Based on Classification and Local Sampling." Machines 11, no. 4 (March 27, 2023): 426. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/machines11040426.

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High-level Automated Vehicles (HAVs) are expected to improve traffic safety significantly. However, verifying and evaluating HAVs remains an open problem. Scenario-based testing is a promising method for HAV testing. Boundary scenarios exist around the performance boundary between critical and non-critical scenarios. Testing HAVs in these boundary scenarios is crucial to investigate why collisions cannot be avoided due to small changes in scenario parameters. This study proposes a methodology to generate diverse boundary scenarios to test HAVs. First, an approach is proposed to obtain at least one High-Performance Classifier (HPC) based on two classification algorithms that iteratively guide each other to find uncertain scenarios to improve their performance. Then, the HPC is exploited to find candidate scenarios highly likely to be boundary scenarios. To increase the efficiency of candidate scenario generation, a strategy based on local sampling is presented to find more diverse candidate scenarios based on a small number of them. Numerical experiments show that the HPCs acquired by the method proposed in this study can achieve a classification accuracy of 98% and 99% for random car-following and cut-in scenarios, respectively. Moreover, more than 86% of 271,744 candidate cut-in scenarios derived by local sampling are near the performance boundary.

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KULYK, Volodymy. "Gross domestic product and critical infrastructure." Naukovi pratsi NDFI 2021, no. 2 (November 15, 2021): 25–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.33763/npndfi2021.02.025.

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GDP is considered as a critical infrastructure that characterizes the global interaction of consumers and manufacturers of the final product in the national economy. For the analysis and modelling of GDP, the Leontiev model is used to analyze and to model GDP as a critical infrastructure, where costs are interpreted in two ways - as consumer spending and as producer costs. This allows you to determine the degree of their influence on each other through the established production structure. Based on Leontiev's aggregated three-sector model, two scenarios were modelled: a) the impact of final consumer spending on output and the formation of added value and b) the impact of changes in added value on output and final consumer spending. The model includes three sectors – the agricultural sector, industry and service sectors. In the first scenario, the increase in the final consumed product in the agricultural sector by 1000 yen causes an increase in output in the agricultural sector by 1153.5 yen, in industry by 594.4 yen and in the service sector by 358.1 yen. At the same time, total production costs will increase by 1106.0 yen; added value will increase in the agricultural sector by 549.8 yen, in industry – 216.8 yen, in the service sector – 233.4 yen. The volume of production growth can be determined only through the Leontiev model. In the second scenario, an increase in added value in the agricultural sector by 1000 yen brings about an increase in output in the agricultural sector by 1153.5 yen, in industry by 1470.4 yen and in the service sector by 480.7 yen. For both scenarios, the assessment and verification of calculations of GDP growth and output are carried out by the balance method – output and GDP growth is described within the Leontiev model. The three-sectoral model is useful for educational purposes, scientific research; to reach the method in a specific example. The approach can be extended to models of greater dimension and large size.

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Mendes, Frederico Coli, and Rui da Silva Andrade. "Scenarios for urban drainage on a Legal Amazon planned city: a case study in Palmas, Brazil." Engenharia Sanitaria e Ambiental 26, no. 3 (June 2021): 461–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s1413-415220190019.

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ABSTRACT The significant urbanization of Brazil in the last decades has pushed cities to combine population growth with protection and harmonic living with their natural resources. The city of Palmas, a planned city in the Legal Amazon, is inserted in this context. In this sense, this study sought to analyze the hydrological and hydraulic responses to different scenarios of land use and occupation in one of its watersheds. Scenarios modeled with SWMM software were current, critical and compensatory techniques. The results showed that the conveyance system, including the main stream, are fully capable of conveying the affluent flow, even in the scenarios with greater impermeability of the watershed. The peak flow of the critical scenario is up to 11.12% higher than the current scenario. However, with compensatory techniques, it is possible to have a peak flow up to 25.76% smaller than the critical scenario.

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LeBlanc, Vicki R., Cheryl Regehr, Walter Tavares, Aristathemos K. Scott, Russell MacDonald, and Kevin King. "The Impact of Stress on Paramedic Performance During Simulated Critical Events." Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 27, no. 4 (July 25, 2012): 369–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x12001021.

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AbstractObjectivesSubstantial research demonstrates that the stressors accompanying the profession of paramedicine can lead to mental health concerns. In contrast, little is known about the effects of stress on paramedics’ ability to care for patients during stressful events. In this study, we examined paramedics’ acute stress responses and performance during simulated high-stress scenarios.MethodsTwenty-two advanced care paramedics participated in simulated low-stress and high-stress clinical scenarios. The paramedics provided salivary cortisol samples and completed an anxiety questionnaire at baseline and following each scenario. Clinical performance was videotaped and scored on a checklist of specific actions and a global rating of performance. The paramedics also completed patient care documentation following each scenario.ResultsThe paramedics demonstrated greater increases in anxiety (P < .05) and salivary cortisol levels (P < .05) in response to the high-stress scenario compared to the low-stress scenario. Global rating scores were significantly lower in the high-stress scenario than in the low-stress scenario (P < .05). Checklist scores were not significantly different between the two scenarios (P = .12). There were more errors of commission (reporting information not present in the scenario) in the patient care documentation following the high-stress scenario than following the low-stress scenario (P < .05). In contrast, there were no differences in omission errors (failing to recall information present in the scenario) between the two scenarios (P = .34).ConclusionClinical performance and documentation appear vulnerable to the impact of acute stress. This highlights the importance of developing systems and training interventions aimed at supporting and preparing emergency workers who face acute stressors as part of their every day work responsibilities.LeBlanc VR, Regehr C, Tavares W, Scott AK, MacDonald R, King K. The impact of stress on paramedic performance during simulated critical events. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2012;27(4):1-6.

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Burt, George, and Thomas J. Chermack. "Learning With Scenarios: Summary and Critical Issues." Advances in Developing Human Resources 10, no. 2 (May 2008): 285–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1523422307313334.

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Alrachid, Houssam, Virginie Ehrlacher, Alexis Marceau, and Karim Tekkal. "Statistical methods for critical scenarios in aeronautics." ESAIM: Proceedings and Surveys 48 (January 2015): 262–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/proc/201448012.

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Khodel, V. A. "Two scenarios of the quantum critical point." JETP Letters 86, no. 11 (February 2008): 721–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/s0021364007230087.

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Demmou, Hamid, Sarhane Khalfaoui, Edwige Guilhem, and Robert Valette. "Critical scenarios derivation methodology for mechatronic systems." Reliability Engineering & System Safety 84, no. 1 (April 2004): 33–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2003.11.007.

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Nassir, M., J. Yang, S. Nyunn, I. Azim, and F. L. Wang. "Progressive Collapse Analysis of multi-story building under the scenario of multi-column removal." E3S Web of Conferences 136 (2019): 04050. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201913604050.

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Recent studies regarding progressive collapse resistance of buildings considered only single critical column removal scenario. However, limited investigations have been conducted so far to assess multi-column removal scenarios. Hence this study is made to compare progressive collapse resistance of a multi-story building under both single and multi-column removal scenarios. An eight-storey reinforced concrete building was analyzed by using linear static analysis procedure and DCR values of the members are calculated to investigate the potential of progressive collapse as per GSA guideline. The values of DCR are compared for different cases. Comparisons of single and multi-column removal scenarios reveal that later scenarios are more critical because of their higher demand capacity ratios, and it is more critical when both corner and exterior columns are removed.

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Cairns, George, Iftekhar Ahmed, Jane Mullett, and George Wright. "Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: Critical reflections on a climate change scenarios case study." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80, no. 1 (January 2013): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.005.

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van den Bosch, Karel, and Anne S. Helsdingen. "Improving Tactical Decision Making through Critical Thinking." Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting 46, no. 3 (September 2002): 448–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/154193120204600349.

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Expert military commanders construct an initial but comprehensive interpretation of complex or unfamiliar tactical situations (story). They subsequently adjust and refine this story by evaluating available information, by searching for consistency, and by critically testing underlying assumptions. This approach is used to develop critical thinking training. Two effect studies were conducted. Individual commanders (study 1) and commanding teams (study 2) played scenario-based exercises in both simplified and high-fidelity task environments. Half the group received instruction, guidance, and feedback in critical thinking. The other half received the same scenarios, but without any support. After training, test scenarios were administered to both groups. Results showed positive effects on the process of tactical command (i.e. better argumentation for situation assessment) as well as on the outcomes (i.e. more and better contingency plans). The method supports not only individual commanders, it also helps teams to develop a common understanding of the situation and to co-ordinate team actions.

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Xu, Chenguan, Chaoyang Xu, Xianxu Huo, Zhenyu Wang, Kui Wang, and Ye Li. "Research on Carbon Peak Prediction in Electric Power Industry Based on DeBruyn and System Dynamics Model." Advances in Economics and Management Research 4, no. 1 (March 7, 2023): 92. http://dx.doi.org/10.56028/aemr.4.1.92.2023.

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As a critical field of carbon emission, the clean and low-carbon transformation of power industry is extremely critical to the smooth realization of country’s "dual carbon" goal. From the perspective of the whole power industry chain, the DeBruyn decomposition method was firstly used to determine critical influence factors of carbon emission in the power industry. Next, the response relationship between the influence factors and carbon emission was established. Finally, the peak value and its occurrence time under various scenarios were identified through designing four typical scenarios. The obtained results demonstrated that, under the context of interactive influence among positive driving factors (population size, thermal power generation, industrial structure, GDP), negative driving factors (forest area, energy structure, science and technology investment) and other factors, the carbon-emission amounts of the power industry under baseline scenario were increased continuously; conversely, the peak value of carbon emission under two single carbon reduction policy scenarios (i.e. carbon trading policy and renewable energy quota policy) and their composition scenario would become decrease, being 5.46×109 tons, 5.61×109 tons and 5.16×109 tons, respectively. Correspondingly, the occurrence time of peak value under three scenarios was in 2029, 2029 and 2028, respectively.

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Yoshitake, Hiroshi, and Motoki Shino. "Identification of Critical Scenario Components Based on Driving Database Analysis for Safety Assessment of Automated Driving Systems." Applied Sciences 13, no. 19 (September 27, 2023): 10770. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app131910770.

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A thorough safety assessment of an automated driving system (ADS) is necessary before its introduction into the market and practical application. Scenario-based assessments have received significant attention in research. However, identifying sufficient critical scenarios for ADSs is a major challenge, especially for complex urban environments with a variety of road geometries, traffic rules, and traffic participants. To identify the critical scenarios in this complex environment, it is essential to understand the environmental factors that lead to safety-critical events (e.g., accidents and near-miss incidents). Thus, this study proposes a method for identification of critical scenario components by analyzing near-miss incident data and extracting environmental factors that induce driver errors. In this study, we applied the proposed method to a scenario, in which an ego vehicle makes a right turn at a signalized intersection with an oncoming vehicle approaching the intersection in left-hand traffic, as a case study. The proposed method identified two components (dynamic occlusion caused by oncoming right-turn vehicles and change in traffic lights) that were both critical and challenging for ADSs. The case study results showed the usefulness of the identified components and the validity of the proposed method, which can extract critical scenario components explicitly.

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Marzec, Robert P. "Securing the future in the anthropocene: A critical analysis of the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios." Elem Sci Anth 6, no. 1 (May 18, 2018): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/elementa.294.

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This commentary analyzes the ontological character of the United Nations’ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) and its attempt to imagine business-as-usual and transformative human-environmental futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) constitutes the first and most significant attempt by an international political body to incorporate environmental concerns into the field of imaginative scenario building. In addition to its lengthy report on the threatened status of planetary ecosystems, the MA contains extensive “future scenarios” that imagine how human-environmental relations might unfold over the course of the twenty-first century. These scenarios arise out of the lineage of military scenarios generated during the Cold War, and continue to inform UN assessments in the present. This commentary explores how a politico-military concern for security informs the framework of the scenarios, and limits how the MA characterizes the fundamental human act of narration. In the process, the commentary explores alternative ontologies of narration and how these may lead to more transformative narratological interventions.

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Khodel, V. A., J. W. Clark, and M. V. Zverev. "Contrasting different scenarios for the quantum critical point." JETP Letters 90, no. 9 (January 2010): 628–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/s0021364009210085.

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Schneider, Norbert, Christian Purucker, and Alexandra Neukum. "Comparison of Steering Interventions in Time-critical Scenarios." Procedia Manufacturing 3 (2015): 3107–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.promfg.2015.07.858.

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Fuchs, Christoph, Nils Aschenbruck, Peter Martini, and Monika Wieneke. "Indoor tracking for mission critical scenarios: A survey." Pervasive and Mobile Computing 7, no. 1 (February 2011): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pmcj.2010.07.001.

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Bishop, K. "Scenarios for technical communication: critical thinking and writing." IEEE Transactions on Professional Communication 42, no. 3 (September 1999): 198–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tpc.1999.784577.

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Gordeev, Sergey, and Sergey Zyryanov. "Critical analysis of scenarios of the economic crisis." Socium i vlast 1 (2023): 127–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/1996-0522-2023-1-127-135.

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In view of the twentieth anniversary of the Socium i Vlast’journal, on the day of the Russian science, a round table was held in the Chelyabinsk branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in order to discuss topical issues of crisis dynamics and risks in the context of new global challenges. Below the main materials of the report based on the results of interdisciplinary research series as exemplified by the Chelyabinsk region are presented. The report discusses the following issues: the economic dynamics of crisis processes, the analysis of trends variability, the assessment of the total income of organizations and individuals, the classification of development scenarios, the visualization of trajectories when analyzing the “picture of changes”. The issues of assessing the risks and prospective development scenarios are associated with the consideration and influence of the conditions of prolonged instability on it.

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Hernandez, Jessica, Alise Frallicciardi, Nur-Ain Nadir, M. David Gothard, and Rami A. Ahmed. "Development of a Simulation Scenario Evaluation Tool (SSET): modified Delphi study." BMJ Simulation and Technology Enhanced Learning 6, no. 6 (December 13, 2019): 344–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjstel-2019-000521.

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IntroductionOne critical aspect of successful simulation facilitation is development of written scenarios. However, there are no validated assessment tools dedicated to the evaluation of written simulation scenarios available. Our aim was to develop a tool to evaluate the quality of written simulation demonstrating content validity.MethodsA comprehensive literature search did not yield a validated assessment tool dedicated for the evaluation of written simulation scenarios. A subsequent search yielded six templates published for written simulation scenario design. From these templates, critical scenario elements were identified to create an evaluation instrument with six components of scenario quality with corresponding anchors and rating scale. Subsequently, a national group of simulation experts were engaged via survey methodology to rate the content of the proposed instrument. Ultimately, a modified two-round Delphi approach was implemented to demonstrate consensus of the final assessment tool.Results38 responses were obtained in round 1, while 22 complete responses were obtained in round 2. Round 1 kappa values ranged from 0.44 to 1.0, indicating moderate to almost perfect rater agreement for inclusion of the six proposed components. Kappa values specifically regarding scale and anchors ranged from 0 to 0.49. After revisions, there was a significant level of agreement (p<0.05) of all items of the proposed assessment tool in the second-round survey except for item 10. Of note, all initial respondents indicated that they had never evaluated written scenarios with an assessment tool.ConclusionsThe Simulation Scenario Evaluation Tool, developed using a national consensus of content experts, is an instrument demonstrating content validity that assesses the quality of written simulation scenarios. This tool provides a basis to guide structured feedback regarding the quality of written simulation scenarios.

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Dalal, Dhaval, Muhammad Bilal, Hritik Shah, Anwarul Islam Sifat, Anamitra Pal, and Philip Augustin. "Cross-Correlated Scenario Generation for Renewable-Rich Power Systems Using Implicit Generative Models." Energies 16, no. 4 (February 7, 2023): 1636. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en16041636.

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Generation of realistic scenarios is an important prerequisite for analyzing the reliability of renewable-rich power systems. This paper satisfies this need by presenting an end-to-end model-free approach for creating representative power system scenarios on a seasonal basis. A conditional recurrent generative adversarial network serves as the main engine for scenario generation. Compared to prior scenario generation models that treated the variables independently or focused on short-term forecasting, the proposed implicit generative model effectively captures the cross-correlations that exist between the variables considering long-term planning. The validity of the scenarios generated using the proposed approach is demonstrated through extensive statistical evaluation and investigation of end-application results. It is shown that analysis of abnormal scenarios, which is more critical for power system resource planning, benefits the most from cross-correlated scenario generation.

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Rezvani, Seyed M. H. S., Maria João Falcão Silva, and Nuno Marques de Almeida. "Urban Resilience Index for Critical Infrastructure: A Scenario-Based Approach to Disaster Risk Reduction in Road Networks." Sustainability 16, no. 10 (May 15, 2024): 4143. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su16104143.

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Floods pose a significant threat to road networks globally, disrupting transportation, isolating communities, and causing economic losses. This study proposes a four-stage methodology (avoidance, endurance, recovery, and adaptability) to enhance the resilience of road networks. We combine analysis of constructed assets and asset system performance with multiple disaster scenarios (Reactive Flood Response, Proactive Resilience Planning, and Early Warning Systems). Advanced flood Geospatial-AI models and open data sources pinpoint high-risk zones affecting crucial routes. The study investigates how resilient assets and infrastructure scenarios improve outcomes within Urban Resilience Index (CRI) planning, integrating performance metrics with cost–benefit analysis to identify effective and economically viable solutions. A case study on the Lisbon Road network subjected to flood risk analyzes the effectiveness and efficiency of these scenarios, through loss and gain cost analysis. Scenario 2, Proactive Resilience Planning, demonstrates a 7.6% increase compared to Scenario 1, Reactive Flood Response, and a 3.5% increase compared to Scenario 3, Early Warning Systems Implementation. By considering asset performance, risk optimization, and cost, the study supports resilient infrastructure strategies that minimize economic impacts, while enabling communities to withstand and recover from flood events. Integrating performance and cost–benefit analysis ensures the sustainability and feasibility of risk reduction measures.

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Romero, Miguel Fernando, Luis Eduardo Gallego, and Fabio Andrés Pavas. "Epidemiological approach to assess risk factors and current distortion incidence on distribution networks." DYNA 82, no. 192 (August 25, 2015): 101–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v82n192.48585.

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<p>A methodology based on epidemiological analysis for assessing risk factors and harmonic distortion incidence rate in a distribution network is proposed in this paper. The methodology analyzes the current harmonics emission risk at the PCC due to the connection of disturbing loads. These loads are modeled and multiple loads connection scenarios are simulated using Monte Carlo Algorithms. From the simulation results, potential risk factors for critical harmonics indicators are identified, leading to a classification of the scenarios into groups of exposed or unexposed to risk factors. Finally, the incidence rate of harmonics is calculated for each load connection scenario and the risk of critical harmonics scenarios due to the exposure to risk factors is estimated.</p>

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Lilot, Marc, Jean-Noel Evain, Christian Bauer, Jean-Christophe Cejka, Alexandre Faure, Baptiste Balança, Olivia Vassal, et al. "Relaxation before Debriefing during High-fidelity Simulation Improves Memory Retention of Residents at Three Months." Anesthesiology 128, no. 3 (March 1, 2018): 638–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/aln.0000000000002045.

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Abstract Background High-fidelity simulation is known to improve participant learning and behavioral performance. Simulation scenarios generate stress that affects memory retention and may impact future performance. The authors hypothesized that more participants would recall three or more critical key messages at three months when a relaxation break was performed before debriefing of critical event scenarios. Methods Each resident actively participated in one scenario and observed another. Residents were randomized in two parallel-arms. The intervention was a 5-min standardized relaxation break immediately before debriefing; controls had no break before debriefing. Five scenario-specific messages were read aloud by instructors during debriefings. Residents were asked by telephone three months later to recall the five messages from their two scenarios, and were scored for each scenario by blinded investigators. The primary endpoint was the number of residents participating actively who recalled three or more messages. Secondary endpoints included: number of residents observing who recalled three or more messages, anxiety level, and debriefing quality. Results In total, 149 residents were randomized and included. There were 52 of 73 (71%) residents participating actively who recalled three or more messages at three months in the intervention group versus 35 of 76 (46%) among controls (difference: 25% [95% CI, 10 to 40%], P = 0.004). No significant difference was found between groups for observers, anxiety or debriefing quality. Conclusions There was an additional 25% of active participants who recalled the critical messages at three months when a relaxation break was performed before debriefing of scenarios. Benefits of relaxation to enhance learning should be considered for medical education.

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CLARK, J. W., V. A. KHODEL, and M. V. ZVEREV. "DISSECTING AND TESTING COLLECTIVE AND TOPOLOGICAL SCENARIOS FOR THE QUANTUM CRITICAL POINT." International Journal of Modern Physics B 24, no. 25n26 (October 20, 2010): 4901–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217979210057080.

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In a number of strongly-interacting Fermi systems, the existence of a quantum critical point (QCP) is signaled by a divergent density of states and effective mass at zero temperature. Competing scenarios and corresponding mechanisms for the QCP are contrasted and analyzed. The conventional scenario invokes critical fluctuations of a collective mode in the close vicinity of a second-order phase transition and attributes divergence of the effective mass to a coincident vanishing of the quasiparticle pole strength. It is argued that this collective scenario is disfavored by certain experimental observations as well as theoretical inconsistencies, including violation of conservation laws applicable in the strongly interacting medium. An alternative topological scenario for the QCP is developed self-consistently within the general framework of Landau quasiparticle theory. In this scenario, the topology of the Fermi surface is transfigured when the quasiparticle group velocity vanishes at the QCP, yet the quasiparticle picture remains meaningful and no symmetry is broken. The topological scenario is found to explain the non-Fermi-liquid behavior observed experimentally in Yb-based heavy-fermion systems close to the QCP. This study suggests that integration of the topological scenario with the theory of second-order, symmetry-breaking quantum phase transitions will furnish a proper foundation for theoretical understanding of the extended QCP region.

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Wijayanto, C., F. Yulianda, and Z. Imran. "The core zone decisive of marine conservation area in Southeast Sulawesi using marxan." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 967, no. 1 (January 1, 2022): 012001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/967/1/012001.

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Abstract The Southeast Sulawesi Marine Conservation Area is one of the marines protected areas, namely Aquatic Tourism Park type, appointed by The Governor’s decree of Southeast Sulawesi Number 98 the Year 2016. This area is located in The Konawe Regency, Kendari City and The South Konawe Regency with 21,785.14 ha. This area was still in initiation, so it has not marine spatial planning. This study aims to formulate and determine the core zone. Marxan was used to assign the core zone and solve the marine spatial planning and utilization conflict. Three scenarios were used to analyze the critical habitat of level protection at 30%, 50%, and combinations. These results described that scenario A has 751 ha, scenario B has 1008 ha, and combinations scenario have 1498 ha. The core zone area is under 1 % of the total area conservation. So, all scenarios do not qualify the criteria required by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Besides, all scenarios have qualified the thirty percents of critical habitat protection. Managers and stakeholders could use these findings to decide the core zone, spatial planning, and sustainable developments.

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Bhati, Rajat, Shubham Saraff, Chhandak Bagchi, and V. Vijayarajan. "Critical Decision Making Using Neural Networks." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 4.10 (October 2, 2018): 15. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.10.20695.

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Decision Making influenced by different scenarios is an important feature that needs to be integrated in the computing systems. In this paper, the system takes prompt decisions in emotionally motivated use-cases like in an unavoidable car accident. The system extracts the features from the available visual and processes it in the Neural network. In addition to that the facial recognition plays a key role in returning factors critical to the scenario and hence alter the final decision. Finally, each recognized subject is categorized into six distinct classes which is utilised by the system for intelligent decision-making. Such a system can form the basis of dynamic and intelligent decision-making systems of the future which include elements of emotional intelligence.

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Xia, Qin, Yi Chai, Haoran Lv, and Hong Shu. "Research on Accelerated Testing of Cut-In Condition of Electric Automated Vehicles Based on Monte Carlo Simulation." Sustainability 13, no. 22 (November 18, 2021): 12776. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132212776.

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Electric automated vehicles are zero-emission, energy-saving, and environmentally friendly vehicles, and testing and verification is an important means to ensure their safety. Because of the scarcity of dangerous scenarios in natural driving roads, it is required to conduct accelerated tests and evaluations for electric automated vehicles. According to the scenario data of the natural road in cut-in conditions, we used the kernel density estimation method to calculate the probability distribution of the scenario parameters. Additionally, we used the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm to sample based on the probability distribution of the parameters, and the Euclidean distance was combined with the paired combination to accelerate the simulation test process. The critical scenarios were screened out by the safety indicator, and the feature distribution of the critical scenario parameters was analyzed based on the Euclidean distance clustering method, so as to design importance sampling parameters and carry out importance sampling. The study obtained the distribution characteristics of critical scenario parameters under cut-in conditions and found that the importance sampling method can accelerate the test under the condition of ensuring that the relative error is small, and the improved accelerated simulation method makes the overall calculation amount smaller.

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Cook, Rachel J., and David Asch. "Transfusion Practices of Critical Care Physicians During Shortages." Blood 116, no. 21 (November 19, 2010): 4401. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood.v116.21.4401.4401.

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Abstract Abstract 4401 Background 16 million units of pRBCs were transfused in the United States in 2006. The number of units transfused increases by 5–7% yearly, although the number of donated units has not increased proportionally leading to increasing shortages. The regional blood banks are responsible for the majority of collections. They typically communicate with hospital blood banks and distribute blood to match predicted needs. The hospital blood banks communicate with hospital administration and ordering physicians about shortages and may recommend strategies to decrease usage. Although the overall blood transfused decreases during a shortage, the effect of a shortage on physician prescribing behavior has not been studied. We randomized critical care physicians in an experimental survey design to understand the effect of varying levels of pRBC shortage on their prescription of blood products. Study Design and Methods We used an experimental survey design to assess changes in critical care physicians' pRBC transfusion threshold during times of varying scarcity. 1,940 Critical care physicians received two clinical scenarios, varying only whether there was a hospital wide shortage of blood products, a regional shortage, or no shortage. The vignette stated: “You are the primary physician for this patient. The patient is a 54 year old woman with dark, heme positive stools who is otherwise asymptomatic and is hemodynamically stable.” The physicians were asked whether they would initiate transfusion at 5 different hgb/hct levels from 5g/dl/15% to 10g/dl/30% and the number of units they would transfuse. Participants also responded to specific questions about personal and practice characteristics, attitude scales and transfusion practices. Results Survey respondents (n= 575, response rate 30%) significantly changed their transfusion threshold based on changing shortage scenarios. Order effects were demonstrated in all surveys where the respondent was presented with a less severe shortage scenario followed by a more severe shortage scenario. Single unit transfusions were utilized by 54.1% of respondents at their transfusion threshold. The percentage of physicians transfusing single units increased substantially in each of the versions that went from less serious to more serious shortage vignettes. In response to statements about allocation of resources, a majority of physicians endorsed the need for rationing (73.4%). A majority also expressed the view that individual physicians are not capable of allocating scarce resources fairly (55.1%). Conclusions This study has three main findings. First, the respondents revealed progressively more restricted use of pRBC transfusions in the setting of progressively more proximate shortages of blood products. This finding suggests that physicians attend to information about shortages and in these scenarios, are willing to change their transfusion practices with individual patients in ways that reflect the needs of other patients. Second, these observed effects were substantially altered by the order of presentation of scenarios. Physicians often became stricter about their use of blood products when told about a shortage or a more proximate shortage, but they did not become more relaxed when later told about no shortage, or a more distant shortage. These findings suggest that continued reminders about scarcity might make physicians thriftier in their use of blood products. Third, physician's revealed use of blood products in response to hypothetical scenarios corresponds to more general feelings about rationing determined from their responses to attitude scales. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

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Felipe-Andreu, Javier, Antonio Valero, and Alicia Valero. "Territorial Inequalities, Ecological and Material Footprints of the Energy Transition: Case Study of the Cantabrian-Mediterranean Bioregion." Land 11, no. 11 (October 25, 2022): 1891. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land11111891.

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This study develops a methodology to assess the energy transition’s territorial, ecological and material impacts on regions. As a case study, the methodology is applied to the Cantabrian-Mediterranean Bioregion, a geographical area constituting eight autonomous communities located in the north of Spain. Two energy demand scenarios for 2030 and 2050 were assessed. The 2030 scenario is based on the Spanish government’s planning, and the 2050 scenario constitutes a net-zero emission economy based on electrification. Energy dependence between autonomous communities, energy and raw material needs, and availability are obtained for both scenarios. Results show a high imbalance between energy producer–consumer autonomous communities and an ecological and critical material deficit for the Bioregion. Two alternative scenarios are proposed, one based on self-sufficiency to ensure a balanced energy transition and another based on energy and material efficiency seeking that the ecological and critical material footprints do not surpass the planet’s carrying capacity. The indicators and methodology proposed can be easily replicated elsewhere and help develop more equitable and sustainable territorial planning strategies.

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Teruel, Pedro Jesús. "Critical Naturalism." Pensamiento. Revista de Investigación e Información Filosófica 77, Extra 295 (November 30, 2021): 467–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.14422/pen.v77.i295.y2021.002.

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In this paper I map the conceptual framework of naturalism, its ontological implications and its current projection in the field of neurophilosophy. I show how critical naturalism formally differs from radical ontological naturalisms, both global and sectoral, in order to become a critical instance. Its theoretical implications lead to a definition of natural causality from the emergentist perspective and to metaphysical scenarios ranging from ontological pluralism to noumenal monism.

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Darzian Rostami, Alireza, Anagha Katthe, Aryan Sohrabi, and Arash Jahangiri. "Predicting Critical Bicycle-Vehicle Conflicts at Signalized Intersections." Journal of Advanced Transportation 2020 (December 2, 2020): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8816616.

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Continuous development of urban infrastructure with a focus on sustainable transportation has led to a proliferation of vulnerable road users (VRUs), such as bicyclists and pedestrians, at intersections. Intersection safety evaluation has primarily relied on historical crash data. However, due to several limitations, including rarity, unpredictability, and irregularity of crash occurrences, quantitative and qualitative analyses of crashes may not be accurate. To transcend these limitations, intersection safety can be proactively evaluated by quantifying near-crashes using alternative measures known as surrogate safety measures (SSMs). This study focuses on developing models to predict critical near-crashes between vehicles and bicycles at intersections based on SSMs and kinematic data. Video data from ten signalized intersections in the city of San Diego were employed to train logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF) models. A variation of time-to-collision called T2 and postencroachment time (PET) were used to specify monitoring periods and to identify critical near-crashes, respectively. Four scenarios were created using two thresholds of 5 and 3 s for both PET and T2. In each scenario, five monitoring period lengths were examined. The RF model was superior compared to other models in all different scenarios and across different monitoring period lengths. The results also showed a small trade-off between model performance and monitoring period length, identifying models with monitoring period lengths of 10 and 20 frames performed slightly better than those with lower or higher lengths. Sequential backward and forward feature selection methods were also applied that enhanced model performance. The best RF model had recall values of 85% or higher across all scenarios. Also, RF prediction models performed better when considering just the rear-end near-crashes with recalls of above 90%.

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Jiang, Meng Xia, and Guo Hua Jiang. "A Method for Software-Related Safety-Critical Scenarios Identification." Applied Mechanics and Materials 599-601 (August 2014): 1328–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.599-601.1328.

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Softwares is becoming increasingly important causes for failures of safety programmable electronic (PE) systems,PRA and CSRM both take it as an important risk contributor and respectively access risk of systems and software in system level.However they partly identify software-related risk scenarios ,and can’t tell what a software must do about all safety-critical conditions,i.e.,safety functions,especially warning functions for conditions software can’t control but must alarm operators to action immediately.Here we give a method to find all software-related safety-critical scenarios,through it all safety-critical conditions and the corresponding functions can be identified.

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Roberto Florez, Eliana Edith, Gladis Leonor Arias-Rodríguez, and Yomaira Angélica Herreño-Contreras. "Constructing Critical Thinking Scenarios in Online Legal English Classes." GIST – Education and Learning Research Journal 24 (June 30, 2022): 119–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.26817/16925777.1339.

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Este artículo reporta una investigación cualitativa sobre la construcción de escenarios de pensamiento crítico en clases de inglés legal, en línea, en una universidad privada en Colombia. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo mejorar el desarrollo de las habilidades de pensamiento crítico de los estudiantes de derecho en clases de EFL (inglés como lengua extranjera) a través de herramientas virtuales mediante la implementación de un análisis de caso descriptivo. Los datos se recopilaron a través de un diario, una encuesta y un grupo de enfoque. Se demostró que cuando los estudiantes se capacitan en pensamiento crítico, aprenden a desarrollar habilidades específicas como razonar, hacer propuestas, identificar y resolver problemas, hacer inferencias, tomar decisiones de acuerdo con sus conocimientos previos y las necesidades del contexto. Además, las estrategias contribuyeron a mejorar las habilidades comunicativas de los estudiantes, en la lengua extranjera.

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Bullard, Mark J., Sean M. Fox, Alan C. Heffner, Christie L. Bullard, and Catherine M. Wares. "Unifying Resident Education: 12 Interdisciplinary Critical Care Simulation Scenarios." MedEdPORTAL 16, no. 1 (January 2020): 11009. http://dx.doi.org/10.15766/mep_2374-8265.11009.

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Sukhanova, N. P. "CRITICAL THINKING IN THE UNIVERSITY EDUCATION SYSTEM: IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS." Herald of Omsk University 26, no. 4 (2021): 57–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.24147/1812-3996.2021.26(4).57-61.

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Debbache, Nasr Eddine, and Leila Boucerredj. "Minimality of Critical Scenarios with Linear Logic and Cutsets." Synthèse : Revue des Sciences et de la Technologie, no. 29 (2014): 42–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.12816/0027877.

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Self, Timothy T., and John T. Self. "Reality in the Classroom: Teaching Critical Thinking with Scenarios." Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Education 29, no. 4 (October 2, 2017): 187–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10963758.2017.1382367.

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Readman, Mark, and Jenny Moon. "Graduated scenarios: Modelling critical reflective thinking in creative disciplines." Art, Design & Communication in Higher Education 19, no. 2 (October 1, 2020): 167–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1386/adch_00021_1.

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This article describes the development and implementation of Jenny Moon’s ‘Graduated scenarios’ (2004, 2001, 2009) in the disciplinary context of media production. Graduated scenarios have previously been used to model different levels of critical thinking and reflection and have been based on situations and experiences that can be related to by a wide range of people. Our development of them in a specific creative disciplinary context, for use by students within that context, represents an evolution of the process, but we also consider the possible reception of such models in the context of debates around academic literacies and the degree to which they may be seen and used as contributing to an orthodoxy of expression. We acknowledge that this experiment in writing and pedagogy may be perceived as providing ‘exemplars of standards’, but argue that it actually models differing depths of thinking, and also opens up discussion about orthodoxies of academic writing. Our four models of different levels of critical reflective writing are provided as appendices, and may be used or adapted as necessary. The production of such graduated accounts is ‘effortful work’, but the process can help us (academics) to better understand our own, as well as facilitating learners’, concepts of depth and ‘good practice’.

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Hadwiger, Stephen C. "Cultural Competence Case Scenarios for Critical Care Nursing Education." Nurse Educator 24, no. 5 (September 1999): 47–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/00006223-199909000-00018.

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Nichols, Allison. "Pre- and Post-Scenarios: Assessing Learning and Behaviour Outcomes in Training Settings." Canadian Journal of Program Evaluation 19, no. 2 (September 2004): 165–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.3138/cjpe.19.008.

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Abstract: This article discusses the use of pre- and post-scenarios to document training outcomes in learning and behaviour using Guskey’s five critical levels of professional development evaluation and Kirkpatrick’s four-level model for training evaluation as the backdrop for discussion. Two case examples are presented: clinical scenarios that were administered in an Alzheimer’s disease training workshop and analyzed using statistical tests, and situational scenarios that were administered in an intergener-ational early childcare training program and analyzed using qualitative methods. The author discusses creating and administering scenarios, preventing measurement bias, analyzing data from scenarios, and using the results of scenario analysis as the basis for designing a long-term behavioural change evaluation, and offers an evaluation of organizational change and support.

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