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1
Burot, Daria. "Transported probability density function for the numerical simulation of flames characteristic of fire." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017AIXM0026/document.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
La simulation de scenarios d’incendie nécessite de modéliser de nombreux processus complexe, particulièrement la combustion gazeuse d’hydrocarbure incluant la production de suie et les transferts radiatifs dans un écoulement turbulent. La nature turbulente de l’écoulement fait apparaitre des interactions qui doivent être prises en compte entre ces processus. L’objectif de cette thèse est d’implémenter une méthode de transport de la fonction de densité de probabilité afin de modéliser ces interactions de manière précise. En conjonction avec un modèle de flammelettes, le modèle de Lindstedt et un modèle à large-bande k-corrélé, l’équation de transport de la PDF jointe de composition est résolue avec la méthode des Champs Eulérien Stochastiques. Le modèle est validé en simulant 12 flammes turbulentes recouvrant une large gamme de nombre de Reynolds et de propension à former de la suie par les combustibles. Dans un second temps, les effets des interactions rayonnement-turbulence (TRI) sur l’émission de la suie sont étudiés en détails, montrant que la TRI tend à augmenter l’émission radiative de la suie à cause des fluctuations de température, mais que cette augmentation est plus faible pour des nombres de Reynolds élevés ou des quantités de suie plus élevées. Ceci est dû à la corrélation négative entre le coefficient d’absorption des suies et la fonction de Planck. Finalement, l’influence de la corrélation entre la fraction de mélange et le paramètre de non-adiabaticité est étudiée sur une flamme d’éthylène, montrant qu’elle a peu d’effet sur la structure moyenne de flamme mais tend à limiter les fluctuations de température et les pertes radiativesThe simulation of fire scenarios requires the numerical modeling of various complex process, particularly the gaseous combustion of hydrocarbons including soot production and radiative transfers in a turbulent. The turbulent nature of the flow induces interactions between these processes that need to be taken accurately into account. The purpose of this thesis is to implement a transported Probability Density function method to model these interactions precisely. In conjunction with the flamelet model, the Lindstedt model, and a wide-band correlated-k model, the composition joint-PDF transport equation is solved using the Stochastic Eulerian Fields method. The model is validated by simulating 12 turbulent jet flames covering a large range of Reynolds numbers and fuel sooting propensity. Model prediction are found to be in reasonable agreement with experimental data. Second, the effects of turbulence-radiation interactions (TRI) on soot emission are studied in details, showing that TRI tends to increase soot radiative emission due to temperature fluctuations, but that this increase is smaller for higher Reynolds numbers and higher soot loads. This is due to the negative correlation between soot absorption coefficient and the Planck function. Finally, the effects of taking into account the correlation between mixture fraction and enthalpy defect on flame structure and radiative characteristics are also studied on an ethylene flame, showing that it has weak effect on the mean flame structure but tends to inhibit both temperature fluctuations and radiative loss
2
Горбенко, Вероніка Володимирівна, та Володимир Олексійович Горбенко. "Особливості дослідження причинності в складних системах". Thesis, Національний технічний університет "Харківський політехнічний інститут", 2018. http://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/handle/KhPI-Press/39304.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Встановлення вірогідності існування причинного зв'язку у складних системах при відсутності повної достовірної інформації про всі обставини події.The establishment of probability of existence of casual connection in difficult systems in absence of full truth information about all circumstance of incident.
3
Eger, Karl-Heinz, and Evgeni Borisovich Tsoy. "Sequential probability ratio tests based on grouped observations." Universitätsbibliothek Chemnitz, 2010. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:ch1-201000938.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This paper deals with sequential likelihood ratio
tests based on grouped observations.
It is demonstrated that the method of conjugated
parameter pairs known from the non-grouped case
can be extended to the grouped case obtaining
Waldlike approximations for the OC- and ASN-
function.
For near hypotheses so-called F-optimal
groupings are recommended.
As example an SPRT
based on grouped observations for the parameter
of an exponentially distributed random variable is
considered.
4
Esterhuizen, Gerhard. "Generalised density function estimation using moments and the characteristic function." Thesis, Link to the online version, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/1001.
Повний текст джерела
5
Xi, Jing. "Polytopes Arising from Binary Multi-way Contingency Tables and Characteristic Imsets for Bayesian Networks." UKnowledge, 2013. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/statistics_etds/5.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The main theme of this dissertation is the study of polytopes arising from binary multi-way contingency tables and characteristic imsets for Bayesian networks.
Firstly, we study on three-way tables whose entries are independent Bernoulli ran- dom variables with canonical parameters under no three-way interaction generalized linear models. Here, we use the sequential importance sampling (SIS) method with the conditional Poisson (CP) distribution to sample binary three-way tables with the sufficient statistics, i.e., all two-way marginal sums, fixed. Compared with Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) approach with a Markov basis (MB), SIS procedure has the advantage that it does not require expensive or prohibitive pre-computations. Note that this problem can also be considered as estimating the number of lattice points inside the polytope defined by the zero-one and two-way marginal constraints. The theorems in Chapter 2 give the parameters for the CP distribution on each column when it is sampled. In this chapter, we also present the algorithms, the simulation results, and the results for Samson’s monks data.
Bayesian networks, a part of the family of probabilistic graphical models, are widely applied in many areas and much work has been done in model selections for Bayesian networks. The second part of this dissertation investigates the problem of finding the optimal graph by using characteristic imsets, where characteristic imsets are defined as 0-1 vector representations of Bayesian networks which are unique up to Markov equivalence. Characteristic imset polytopes are defined as the convex hull of all characteristic imsets we consider. It was proven that the problem of finding optimal Bayesian network for a specific dataset can be converted to a linear programming problem over the characteristic imset polytope [51]. In Chapter 3, we first consider characteristic imset polytopes for all diagnosis models and show that these polytopes are direct product of simplices. Then we give the combinatorial description of all edges and all facets of these polytopes. At the end of this chapter, we generalize these results to the characteristic imset polytopes for all Bayesian networks with a fixed underlying ordering of nodes.
Chapter 4 includes discussion and future work on these two topics.
6
Pranskūnaitė, Arūnė. "Imčių iš baigtinių visumų statistikos tikimybiniai skirstiniai." Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2012. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2012~D_20120620_114328-60725.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Nagrinėjama silpnai priklausomų atsitiktinių dydžių statistika. Šio magistrinio darbo tikslas, turimą sumą, suvesti į nepriklausomų atsitiktinių dydžių sumą, kuri leistų tolimesniam tyrimui, pritaikyti žinomas teoremas, skaičiavimus bei rezultatus iš nepriklausomų atsitiktinių dydžių teorijos.We analyze of weakly dependent random variables statistics. The objective of this master thesis is to deduce sum to independent random variables sum, which will be useful for applaying known theorems, calculations and results from the theory in independent random variables.
7
Krasauskaitė, Justa. "Tikimybinių matų charakteringosios transformacijos." Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2007. http://vddb.library.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2007~D_20070816_160333-10019.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Darbe gaunama, jog silpno matų konvergavimo erdvės X prasme išlpaukia charakteringųjų transformacijų konvergavimas ir atvirkščiai, jeigu charakteringosios transformacijos konverguoja į funkcijas tolydžias nuliniame taške, tai iš čia išplaukia matų silpnas konvergavimas erdvės X prasme.It is obtained, that the weak convergence in the sense of X implies the convergence of characteristic transforms, and, on the contrary, if the characteristic transforms converge weakly to the functions contiuous at zero, the from this the weak convergence in the sense of X for the probability measures fallows.
8
McCary, William D. III. "Performance Evaluation of UNT Apogee Stadium Wind Turbines." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2016. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc849611/.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The following report chronicles the University of North Texas Wind Turbine Project at Apogee Stadium. The timeline of events will include the feasibility study conducted by and for the university, grant awards from the Texas State Energy Conservation Office to fund the project, and a three-year sample of real time performance data since installation. The purpose of this case study is to compare the energy generation estimates by various stakeholders to the measured energy generation using a new but uniform performance relationship. In order to optimize energy generation in wind turbine generator systems, the most common wind speeds measured at the site should also be the most efficient wind speeds at which the wind turbine can convert the kinetic energy in the wind into mechanical energy and ultimately electrical energy. The tool used to convey this relationship will be a figure plotting the wind speed profile against the efficiency curve of the wind turbine. Applying this relationship tool to the UNT Apogee Stadium wind turbines provided valuable results. The most common wind speeds at Apogee Stadium are not the most efficient wind speed for the turbine. Also, the most common wind speeds were near the lower limit of the wind turbine’s performance parameters. This scenario was evident in both the energy generation predictions as well as the real-time recorded data. This case study will also present the economic analysis of the Apogee Stadium wind turbines using another tool that was not previously used in the feasibility study. The case study concludes with future steps to improve wind turbine performance, and to budget future cost using past, present and future energy savings.
9
Павленко, Іван Володимирович, Иван Владимирович Павленко, Ivan Volodymyrovych Pavlenko, В`ячеслав Валерійович Суханов, Вячеслав Валерьевич Суханов та Vyacheslav Valerievich Suhanov. "Вероятностный расчёт устройств автоматического уравновешивания осевых сил центробежных машин". Thesis, Видавництво СумДУ, 2008. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/2982.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
На этапе проектирования невозможно абсолютно точно определить основные геометрические и физические параметры системы "ротор - система автоматического уравновешивания осевой силы". Эта проблема решается путём применения методов теории вероятностей и математической статистики.У роботі проведено статичний розрахунок гідроп`яти з урахуванням випадкової зміни геометричних і фізичних параметрів. Створена комп`ютерна програма побудови статичної та витратної характеристик. При цитуванні документа, використовуйте посилання http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/2982
В работе проведён статический расчёт гидропяты с учётом случайного изменения геометрических и физических параметров. Создана компьютерная программа построения статической и расходной характеристик. При цитировании документа, используйте ссылку http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/2982
In this paper the static calculation of hydraulic balancing device, taking into account the random changes of geometrical and physical parameters here made. The computer program of static and leaking characteristics is constructing. When you are citing the document, use the following link http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/2982
10
Combs, B. Lynn. "Quantifying the Probability of Lethal Injury to Florida Manatees Given Characteristics of Collision Events." Scholar Commons, 2018. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/7488.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Wherever wildlife share space with boaters, collisions are a potential source of mortality. Establishing protection and speed zones are the primary actions taken to mitigate collision risk. However, creation of protection zones may be a point of contention with stakeholders as new zones can have significant socioeconomic impacts. The Florida Manatee is a prime example of a species whose abundance and viability are constrained by this balance between the needs of humans and wildlife on a shared landscape. The goal of this work is to help further understand the risk to manatees by quantifying the probability of lethal collisions. I hypothesized that higher boat speeds increase the probability of lethal injury to manatee during a collision and aimed to characterize the relationship between vessel speed and the probability of lethal injury to manatee. I used a logistic regression model implemented with a Bayesian approach and fitted to citizen reported collision data as a feasible method for examining the influence of vessel speed in contributing to lethal injury to a manatee when struck. I also present a method for dealing with uncertainty in data used to report collisions. To conduct this analysis, I used citizen reported collision data. These data are typically collected opportunistically, suffer from low sample sizes, and have uncertainty in reported vessel speeds. Uncertainty associated with speed values in reported collision events was assessed by performing a multiple imputation to replace qualitative vessel speed – in other words, “missing data” – with quantitative values. This procedure involves fitting log-normal distributions to radar data that contained precise vessel speeds along with a physical description like ‘planing’, ‘plowing’, or ‘idle’. For each imputation of the data, a quantitative value was selected randomly from that distribution and used in place of its initial corresponding speed category. I evaluated issues related to quasi-separation and model fit using simulated data sets to explore the importance of sample size and evaluated the effect of key sources of error. The prediction that greater strike speed increases the probability of lethal injury was supported by the data that I analyze
11
Filipovic-Gledja, Visnja. "A probability based unified model for predicting electrical, mechanical and thermal characteristics of stranded overhead-line conductors." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp02/NQ30086.pdf.
Повний текст джерела
12
Fralix, Brian Haskel. "Stability and Non-stationary Characteristics of Queues." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/14569.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
We provide contributions to two classical areas of queueing. The first part of this thesis focuses on finding new conditions for a
Markov chain on a general state space to be Harris recurrent,
positive Harris recurrent or geometrically ergodic. Most of our
results show that establishing each property listed above is
equivalent to finding a good enough feasible solution to a
particular optimal stopping problem, and they provide a more
complete understanding of the role Foster's criterion plays in the
theory of Markov chains.
The second and third parts of the thesis involve analyzing queues
from a transient, or time-dependent perspective. In part two, we
are interested in looking at a queueing system from the
perspective of a customer that arrives at a fixed time t. Doing
this requires us to use tools from Palm theory. From an intuitive
standpoint, Palm probabilities provide us with a way of computing
probabilities of events, while conditioning on sets of measure
zero. Many studies exist in the literature that deal with Palm
probabilities for stationary systems, but very few treat the
non-stationary case. As an application of our main results, we
show that many classical results from queueing (in particular ASTA and Little's law) can be generalized to a time-dependent
setting.
In part three, we establish a continuity result for what we refer
to as jump processes. From a queueing perspective, we basically
show that if the primitives and the initial conditions of a
sequence of queueing processes converge weakly, then the
corresponding queue-length processes converge weakly as well in
some sense. Here the notion of convergence used depends on
properties of the limiting process, therefore our results
generalize classical continuity results that exist in the
literature. The way our results can be used to approximate
queueing systems is analogous to the way phase-type random
variables can be used to approximate other types of random
variables.
13
Савченко, Г. І., Іван Володимирович Павленко, Иван Владимирович Павленко та Ivan Volodymyrovych Pavlenko. "Імовірнісний розрахунок характеристик запірно-урівноважуючого пристрою ротора багатоступінчатого відцентрового насоса". Thesis, Сумський державний університет, 2014. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/37807.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Аналіз характеристик запірно-врівіноважуючого пристрою свідчить про необхідність урахування можливого відхилення фізичних і геометричних параметрів гідромеханічної системи від значень, обраних у проектному розрахунку.У роботі досліджений запірно-урівноважуючий пристрій ротора багатоступінчатого відцентрового насоса, для якого визначені математичні очікування та середньоквадратичні відхилення статичної і витратної характеристик. Створена комп’ютерна програма, яка містить процедури генерації випадкових вихідних параметрів і отримання статичних і витратних характеристик.
В работе исследовано затворно-уравновешивающее устройство ротора многоступенчатого центробежного насоса, для которого определены математические ожидания и среднеквадратические отклонения статической и расходной характеристик. Создана компьютерная программа, которая содержит процедуры генерации случайных выходных параметров и получения статических и расходных характеристик.
In this paper investigated the closing balancing device of multistage centrifugal pump rotor. Several values and standard deviations of static and flow characteristics were defined. Computer program with procedures of random output parameters generating and static and flow characteristics obtaining are stated.
14
Ilie, Dragos. "Gnutella Network Traffic : Measurements and Characteristics." Licentiate thesis, Karlskrona : Department of Telecommunication Systems, School of Engineering, Blekinge Institute of Technology, 2006. http://www.bth.se/fou/Forskinfo.nsf/allfirst2/7790f6689ef361b0c12571490034a530?OpenDocument.
Повний текст джерела
15
Bakouros, Y. L. "Offshore pipeline reliability prediction : An assessment of the breakdown characteristics of offshore pipelines and the development of a statistical technique to improve their reliability prediction with particular reference." Thesis, University of Bradford, 1988. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.233657.
Повний текст джерела
16
Huang, Kelvin. "The Impact of Minimum Investment Barriers on Hedge Funds: Are Retail Investors Getting the Short End of Performance?" Thesis, Kingston, Ont. : [s.n.], 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1974/1647.
Повний текст джерела
17
Brockett, Russell. "How Other Drivers’ Vehicle Characteristics Influence Your Driving Speed." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2011. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/131.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
An analysis of the effect of passing vehicles’ characteristics and their impact on other drivers’ velocities was investigated. Three experimental studies were proposed and likely outcomes were discussed. Experiment 1 focused on the effect of passing vehicle type (SUV, sedan or truck) on driver speed. Drivers were hypothesized as going faster when the same vehicle type as they were driving passed them versus when no vehicle or a different vehicle passed them. Experiment 2 focused on the effect of passing SUV age on driver’s speed. Evidence suggests passing older SUVs will increase the driver’s speed more than new SUVs. Experiment 3 focused on the effect of passing SUV color on speed. Drivers were hypothesized to go faster when brighter colors (red and yellow) rather than cooler colors (grey and black) were painted on the vehicle.
18
Mense, Jelte Pierc. "New general mechanistic model for predicting civil disturbances and their characteristics." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/28763.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Since the wave of civil violence in the USA in the 1960s, many social theorists have tried to explain why riots occur. Despite at least 50 years of research since then, there is still not enough insight to anticipate large events like the 2011 Arab Spring and London riots. The main goal of this thesis is therefore to improve understanding about how underlying conditions influence and drive riot dynamics, such as the intensity, spread, and duration. I develop a new mechanistic and stochastic agent-based model for riots. Previous models have either only targeted general phenomena associated with riots, or aimed at behaviour specific to a single event. In this thesis I combine both approaches: I demonstrate how the model in which the motivation of the agents is based on general concepts, can be applied to the specific situation of the 2011 London riots. The model reproduces the majority of the behaviour observed in the London riots (r = 0.4-0.8). One of the key factors under investigation is the relationship between protests and outbursts of civil violence. Riots are often preceded by protests, such that a large pool of potential rioters is directly available. I find that the number of times a protest is repeated has greater influence on riot dynamics than the protest crowd size. The support shown during demonstrations might incite false confidence in individuals, potentially leading to quicker escalation. Another question is how contact networks and collective identity influence the spread of violence between different locations. The role of online social media (e.g. Twitter) has been a major focus in trying to explain why the violence in the 2011 Arab spring spread so quickly and so far. I investigate the role of social similarity as another factor that might have contributed to the diffusion of unrest, and demonstrate the existence of a critical transition in riot activity when increasing the density of the contact network in the model. Such increases in density beyond the critical thresholds might have been introduced by online social networks. Finally, I explore the sensitivity to cooperation of different potential riot groups. In some cases, mixed populations with different collective identities can form coalitions within neighbourhoods based on shared grievances, which could lead to increases in riot size and riot probability. I examine the influence of the social structure and spread of these populations over different neighbourhoods, as well as the overlap in grievances and different demographic structures.
19
Hollander, James Fisher. "Reformulating a link between social influence network theory and status characteristics theory and a method for testing that link." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2006. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc5271/.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The impact of social influence from others on choices made by subjects and how this influence accumulates was studied by secondary analysis of reported experimental data. To explain this impact a link is proposed between social influence network theory (SINT) and status characteristics theory (SCT). The link formula transforms stay probabilities for different status relationships of subject with one disagreeing other agent into horizontal axis coordinate values while stay probabilities of subject given two disagreeing others are transformed into vertical-axis coordinate values corresponding to the horizontal axis values for further analyses. The results support the utility of the proposed link between the two theories.
20
Jones, Matthew. "Ignition and Combustion Characteristics of Nanoscale Metal and Metal Oxide Additives in Biofuel (Ethanol) and Hydrocarbons." University of Toledo / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1304469906.
Повний текст джерела
21
Біденко, І. Г. "Імовірнісний підхід до визначення основних характеристик системи "ротор-шпаринні ущільнення" відцентрового насоса. Вплив імовірнісного характеру параметрів системи "ротор-шпаринні ущільнення" на вібраційні характеристики відцентрового насоса". Master's thesis, Сумський державний університет, 2018. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/71068.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Робота присвячена дослідженню силових гідродинамічних факторів, що
виникають під час течії рідини в циліндричних дроселюючих каналах
ущільнень відцентрових машин. Ротор і ущільнення розглядаються при цьому
як замкннена гідромеханічна система, у якій роль зв’язуючої ланки виконує
перекачуване середовище, його інерційні і гідродинамічні характеристики.
Вплив середовища особливо істотний при наявності великих градієнтів
швидкостей і тисків. Такі умови саме і характерні для малих зазорів шпаринних
ущільнень, на яких дроселюються великі перепади тиску, а одна зі стінок
належить ротору, що обертається і вібрує. Таким чином, ротор і ущільнення
являють собою складну гідромеханічну систему, характеристики якої мають
визначальний вплив на надійність та герметичність відцентрових машин.
Ускладнює ситуацію той факт, що зазвичай на практиці через встановлені
допуски на виготовлення геометричні параметри ущільнень мають випадковий
характер, крім того, вони можуть змінюватися в процесі експлуатації через знос
поверхонь, і таким чином, динамічні навантаження, що діють на ротор, також
будуть мати випадковий характер. Тому в роботі проведено ймовірнісний
розрахунок динамічних характеристик ротора, в якому відповідні параметри
описуються випадковими величинами або функціями.Вероятностный подход к определению основных характеристик системы "ротор - щелевые уплотнения" центробежного насоса. Влияние вероятностного характера параметров системы «ротор - щелевые уплотнения» на вибрационные характеристики центробежного насоса.
Probabilistic approach to determination of basic characteristics of the system “rotor – annual seals” of the centrifugal pump. Influence of the probabilistic nature of the system "rotor - annual seals" parameters on the vibration characteristics of centrifugal pump.
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Söderlind, Lennart. "Slumpen och Guds försyn : Ett försök att karaktärisera slumpbegreppet." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Teologiska institutionen, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-404347.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Why is there a phenomenon of chance in the created world? There are many different probability distributions and does that point at different ideas of chance? Given that God has created the whole universe, why is chance an element of that universe of ours? Does He use chance as a mechanism for His providence? There is a common apprehension of the laws of nature, that they are statistically attained in an asymptotic behaviour over a long period of time. The laws of probability are likewise evolved in the same fashion, as shown in the paper. The universe seems to be lawfully constructed according to both natural laws and probability laws. It is a clear conclusion to regard chance as an intrinsic concept of the world. But, why are there so many ideas of chance despite this common feature of the world? Next section in the paper addresses the many conceptions of chance and works out an idea of how to look at these conditions. The paper results in a presentation of a hierarchy, where different events with their probability distributions might be gathered to some more common properties of chance. The question rises if God is working on that higher level of hierarchy. This paper has come to a conclusion that, because there are that many ideas of chance and that many probability distributions, we might lack the idea of chance.
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Pezo, Silvano Ary. "Advancing Traffic Safety : An evaluation of speed limits, vehicle-bicycle interactions, and I2V systems." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Transportvetenskap, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-195640.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Since the introduction of motor vehicles, the number of fatalities and accidents has been a concern for society.The number of fatalities on roads is amongst the most common causes of mortality worldwide (WHO, 2015).Even in industrialized countries the number of fatalities remains unacceptable. Therefore, in the last decades, anumber of approaches have emerged to support and boost traffic safety towards a system free from fatalities andserious impairment outcomes. ‘Sustainable Safety’ and ‘Vision Zero’ are well-known examples aiming to avoidfatalities within the traffic system and reduce injury severity when a traffic accident is inevitable. However, thenumber of fatalities and seriously injured accidents are still relatively high. More specifically, vulnerable roadusers remain involved in fatal and serious accidents even in industrialized countries. Therefore, further advancesin traffic safety studies are needed. This thesis aims at evaluating the impact of road characteristics, traffic rulesand information provision towards a safer traffic system. The thesis is composed of five scientific papers whichsummarizes the main contributions of this work.QC 20161109
24
Samoylov, Alexander V. "Improvement of the efficiency of vehicle inspection and maintenance programs through incorporation of vehicle remote sensing data and vehicle characteristics." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/50410.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Emissions from light-duty passenger vehicles represent a significant portion of total criteria pollutant emissions in the United States. Since the 1970s, emissions testing of these vehicles has been required in many major metropolitan areas, including Atlanta, GA, that were designated to be in non-attainment for one or more of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. While emissions inspections have successfully reduced emissions by identifying and repairing high emitting vehicles, they have been increasingly inefficient as emissions control systems have become more durable and fewer vehicles are in need of repair. Currently, only about 9% of Atlanta area vehicles fail emissions inspection, but every vehicle is inspected annually. This research addresses explores ways to create a more efficient emissions testing program while continuing to use existing testing infrastructure. To achieve this objective, on road vehicle emissions data were collected as a part of the Continuous Atlanta Fleet Evaluation program sponsored the Georgia Department of Natural Resources. These remote sensing data were combined with in-program vehicle inspection data from the Atlanta Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) program to establish the degree to which on road vehicle remote sensing could be used to enhance program efficiency. Based on this analysis, a multi-parameter model was developed to predict the probability of a particular vehicle failing an emissions inspection. The parameters found to influence the probability of failure include: vehicle characteristics, ownership history, vehicle usage, previous emission test results, and remote sensing emissions readings. This model was the foundation for a proposed emissions testing program that would create variable timing for vehicle retesting with high and low failure probability vehicles being more and less frequently, respectively, than the current annual cycle. Implementation of this program is estimated to reduce fleet emissions of 17% for carbon monoxide, 11% for hydrocarbons, and 5% for nitrogen oxides in Atlanta. These reductions would be achieved very cost-effectively at an estimated marginal cost of $149, $7,576 and $2,436 per-ton-per-year for carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides emissions reductions respectfully.
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Hsieh, Yi-Ting, and 謝伊婷. "On the valuation and risk characteristic of synthetic CDOs with compound protection layers: extending probability bucketing algrithm." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/07430944910304046083.
Повний текст джерела
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Koné, Fangahagnian. "Test d'adéquation à la loi de Poisson bivariée au moyen de la fonction caractéristique." Thèse, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/18776.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Les tests d’adéquation font partie des pratiques qu’ont les statisticiens pour
prendre une décision concernant l’hypothèse de l’utilisation d’une distribution
paramétrique pour un échantillon. Dans ce mémoire, une application du test
d’adéquation basé sur la fonction caractéristique proposé par Jiménez-Gamero
et al. (2009) est faite dans le cas de la loi de Poisson bivariée. Dans un premier
temps, le test est élaboré dans le cas de l’adéquation à une loi de Poisson univariée
et nous avons trouvé son niveau bon. Ensuite cette élaboration est étendue au
cas de la loi de Poisson bivariée et la puissance du test est calculée et comparée
à celle des tests de l’indice de dispersion, du Quick test de Crockett et des deux
familles de tests proposés par Novoa-Muñoz et Jiménez-Gamero (2014). Les résultats
de la simulation ont permis de constater que le test avait un bon niveau
comparativement aux tests de l’indice de dispersion et au Quick test de Crockett
et qu’il était généralement moins puissant que les autres tests. Nous avons également
découvert que le test de l’indice de dispersion devrait être bilatéral alors
qu’il ne rejette que pour de grandes valeurs de la statistique de test. Finalement,
la valeur-p de tous ces tests a été calculée sur un jeu de données de soccer et les
conclusions comparées. Avec une valeur-p de 0,009, le test a rejeté l’hypothèse que
les données provenaient d’une loi de Poisson bivariée alors que les tests proposés
par Novoa-Muñoz et Jiménez-Gamero (2014) donnaient une conclusion différente.Our aim in this thesis is to conduct the goodness-of-fit test based on empirical characteristic functions proposed by Jiménez-Gamero et al. (2009) in the case of the bivariate Poisson distribution. We first evaluate the test’s behaviour in the case of the univariate Poisson distribution and find that the estimated type I error probabilities are close to the nominal values. Next, we extend it to the bivariate case and calculate and compare its power with the dispersion index test for the bivariate Poisson, Crockett’s Quick test for the bivariate Poisson and the two test families proposed by Novoa-Muñoz et Jiménez-Gamero (2014). Simulation results show that the probability of type I error is close to the claimed level and that it is generally less powerful than other tests. We also discovered that the dispersion index test should be bilateral whereas it rejects for large values only. Finally, the p-value of all these tests is calculated on a real dataset from soccer. The p-value of the test is 0,009 and we reject the hypothesis that the data come from a Poisson bivariate while the tests proposed by Novoa-Muñoz et Jiménez-Gamero (2014) leads to a different conclusion.
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(11009496), Andrew M. Thomas. "Stochastic Process Limits for Topological Functionals of Geometric Complexes." Thesis, 2021.
Знайти повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This dissertation establishes limit theory for topological functionals of geometric complexes from a stochastic process viewpoint. Standard filtrations of geometric complexes, such as the Čech and Vietoris-Rips complexes, have a natural parameter r which governs the formation of simplices: this is the basis for persistent homology. However, the parameter r may also be considered the time parameter of an appropriate stochastic process which summarizes the evolution of the filtration.
Here we examine the stochastic behavior of two of the foremost classes of topological functionals of such filtrations: the Betti numbers and the Euler characteristic. There are also two distinct setups in which the points underlying the complexes are generated, where the points are distributed randomly in Rd according to a general density (the traditional setup) and where the points lie in the tail of a heavy-tailed or exponentially-decaying “noise” distribution (the extreme-value theory (EVT) setup).
These results constitute some of the first results combining topological data analysis (TDA) and stochastic process theory. The first collection of results establishes stochastic process limits for Betti numbers of Čech complexes of Poisson and binomial point processes for two specific regimes in the traditional setup: the sparse regime—when the parameter r governing the formation of simplices causes the Betti numbers to concentrate on components of the lowest order; and the critical regime—when the parameter r is of the order n-1/d and the geometric complex becomes highly connected with topological holes of every dimension. The second collection of results establishes a functional strong law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for the Euler characteristic of a random geometric complex for the critical regime in the traditional setup. The final collection of results establishes functional strong laws of large numbers for geometric complexes in the EVT setup for the two classes of “noise” densities mentioned above.
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Freitas, Luísa Maria Ribeiro de. "Testes de ajustamento baseados na função característica ponderada." Master's thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10316/48129.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Dissertação de Mestrado em Matemática apresentada à Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade de Coimbra.Em 2014, Meintanis, Swanepoel e Allison propuseram um teste de ajustamento baseado numa nova função por eles introduzida e a que chamaram função característica ponderada por ser uma generalização da função característica. Este é o teste que estudamos nesta dissertação. Começamos assim por estabelecer as principais propriedades da nova função, passando a seguir ao estudo do teste de ajustamento nela baseado. Como ponto de partida, analisamos o caso particular do teste de ajustamento a uma distribuição fixa, generalizando de seguida a uma família de distribuições. Para ambos os casos, definimos a estatística de teste envolvente, determinamos a sua distribuição assintótica sob a hipótese nula e analisamos a convergência do teste. Por último, apresentamos os resultados de um estudo de simulação realizado para analisar a potência do teste de ajustamento a uma família de distribuições, tomando como referência um teste recomendado na literatura.
In 2014, Meintanis, Swanepoel e Allison proposed a goodness-of-fit test based on a new function introduced by them and called probability weighted characteristic function because it is a generalization of the usual characteristic function. The study of this test is the main goal of this dissertation. We start by establishing the main properties of the new function and then we examine in detail the goodness-of-fit test that depends on it. The starting point is to study the simple goodness-of-fit test and then the composite goodness-of-fit test. For both, the corresponding test statistics, limiting null distributions and consistency results are presented. Finally, we show the results of a simulation study carried out to analyze the power of the composite goodness-of-fit test and compare it with other well-known test.
29
Tsai, Chia-Ming, and 蔡佳明. "The Research of Relation between Housing Characteristics and Vacancy Probability." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/33898282180216480996.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士國立臺灣大學
經濟學研究所
101
The linkage between the housing characteristics and vacant probability has been proved (Jud and Frew, 1990; Lin, Peng, and Lin, 2003), but those researches only used the limited characteristics based on the housing unit without considered the characteristics based on the community or location. This article redefines and classifies characteristics as heterogeneity and investable type with the data in Taipei city and new Taipei city. Based on the investors’ preference, the article chooses 4 characteristics, such as ages, floor area, whether located in new planed area, and whether located in TOD zone, and based on the distribution of housing stock, and marketing, the article chooses 4 characteristics, such as total floor height, located floor height, total houses in the community, whether as main type. The results of a binary logit model show that a close relationship between housing vacancy and housing characteristics, both in heterogeneity and investable type, such as ages, floor area, whether located in new planed area, total floor height, and total units in the community.
30
Tsai, Cheng-Che, and 蔡政哲. "The Empirical Study of Firm Characteristics, Conversion Probability and Convertible Bonds Financing Decisions." Thesis, 2003. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ew8mf7.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士中原大學
國際貿易研究所
91
**According to Lewis, Rogalski and Seward (2003), the firm characteristics of the firms that issue convertible bonds interpret high debt- and equity-related costs of external finance. To assess the theoretical issuance motives separately, the convertible bonds are classified according to conversion probability 3 types, i.e. debt-like, hedge-like, and equity-like convertible bonds. Five empirical are performed under Variance Test, T Test, Mann-Whitney U Test, Logistic Model and Tobit Model to characterize how issuers should design convertible bonds to efficiently mitigate specific debt- and equity-related costs of external finance. In conclusion, we document that the firms that issue convertible bonds tend to issue equity-like convertible bonds when the firms face small asymmetric information costs, small adverse selection costs and high financial distress costs and have better growth opportunities in the future. On the contrary, the firms that issue convertible bonds tend to issue debt-like convertible bonds when the firms face big asymmetric information costs, big adverse selection costs and low financial distress costs and have worse growth opportunities in the future.
31
Hong, Shi-Cheng, and 洪世城. "The analysis of outage probability and statistical characteristics for indoor and outdoor wireless communication." Thesis, 1998. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/92126959361508990810.
Повний текст джерела
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Liou, Juang Yan, and 劉仲晏. "The Impact of Corporate Governance Characteristics on The Probability and Amount of Assets Impairment Recognized." Thesis, 2006. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/58297538982363586341.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士南台科技大學
會計資訊系
94
ABSTRACT The prior literatures show that to adopt the SFAS NO. 35 is possibly to cause enormous impacts and negative market reaction to firms. The SFAS NO. 35 was effective for financial year ending after December 31, 2005, with early application encouraged. This research focuses on if the company can appropriate response assets impairment losses under corporate governance. First, we use Logit model to analyze the relationship of corporate governance characteristics and probability of early adopt SFAS NO. 35. The results show that assets impairment recognized has significant positive relationship with the ratio of the stock held by the board and supervisors. But the other corporate governance characteristics have not significant correlations. This result indicates that corporate governance still has slightly influence on assets impairment recognized. Besides, in the respect of the proxy variables of big bath and smooth, we detect that the management still have high possibility to use assets impairment to manage earnings. Finally, we examine the correlation between corporate governance characteristics and the amount of assets impairment by using multiple regression analysis. The results show that the ratio of independent director number has significant negative relationship with the amount of assets impairment. This result indicates that independent director number can improve operating performance and avoid resulting in huge mount assets impairment losses. But the other corporate governance characteristics have not significant correlations. And this can be proved by big bath and smooth variables which have positive correlation with the amount of assets impairment recognized.
33
Tseng, Li-Wen, and 曾俐雯. "The Impacts of Loan Characteristics on Default Probability of P2P Lending Loans: Empirical Evidence from Zopa." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/chnqzz.
Повний текст джерела
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Yu, Shun-Chieh, and 游舜傑. "Inference of the probability of default and the borrower characteristics approach: An application on P2P lending." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/mt9q8u.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士逢甲大學
統計學系統計與精算碩士班
106
Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has grown faster and more efficient under the current favorable network technology environment. This non-guarantee lending mode can significantly reduce the cost of borrowing, but it also can easily cause information gaps between borrowers and lenders. In order to adapt to the risk of asymmetric information in this emerging finance, verifying the determinants of default is important to investors and the platform. This paper thus employs data from China’s online P2P lending platform to assess the probability of default and the significant impact variables. Due to the convenience and speed of P2P lending transactions, there are currently many collected trading records and features. With limited computing resources, how to reduce sample sizes and dimensions is an important issue. In this paper we adopt the stratified sampling based on the initial scoring default proportion from 97,695 datapoints in China’s P2P lending industry and retain only 1/10 of the original amount for analysis. The empirical study employs a one hundred times re-sampling experiment to prove that our stratified sampling strategy can obtain stable results. However, in order to deal with the feature selection problem, we apply and compare the stepwise, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and Bayesian approaches for logistic regression models. Next, we compare the performance of the three models with the testing datasets under different default proportions, showing that the Bayesian method is the most concise and effective way. The variables we finally decide to use include periods, loan periods (contract time of loan), interest rate, interest due, loan amount, telephone authentication, and loan type. Many pre-loan authentications defined by China’s P2P lending platform are not important factors, contrarily highlighting the importance of borrowing platforms to enhance the mandatory of authentication. In exploring the probability of a loan default, we utilize logistic quantile regression (LQR) to estimate the effects of given variables on various quantile levels and apply the Cox proportional hazard (Cox PH) model to measure the default probability in different repayment periods. The LQR estimates show that the interest due, borrowing period, and loan period increase the probability of default and have a significant turnaround on the quantile level of 0.6. On the other side, the loan interest rate and loan amount have a negative impact on default probability. In the estimation of the Cox PH model, we get the default hazard of different repayment periods and find that the default risk increases significantly after the repayment period exceeds one year and a half.
35
Wong, Jhen-you, and 翁禎佑. "Discussion on the future Climate Change Characteristics around Taiwan from IPCC AR4 AOGCMs Using Probability Density Functions." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ubg3jd.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士國立中央大學
大氣物理研究所
97
In the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the global mean surface temperature have risen by 0.74 ℃ ± 0.18 ℃ over the 20th century, and the warming trend is accelerating. And in the 21st century the surface temperature is expected to rise continuously. IPCC adopts several types of “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” (SRES) to simulate the future global climate change. The SRES are constructed based on potential greenhouse gas emission strength in the future. The spatial scale of climate change is global in the IPCC. We can’t directly describe in detail how the regional climate change by using Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). If we want to understand the regional climate projections, the questions are then we have to use the dynamic downscaling. In this study, the statistical features of the whole simulated result from IPCC are focal point. So we used “probability density function” method and hope we can examine the statistical features of the climate change characteristics around Taiwan by means of the probability density function. Two models within IPCC are selected for this study. They are MIROC3.2(medres) (abbreviated as NIES) from Japan and ECJAM5_MOI-OM (abbreviated as MPI) from Germany respectively. The simulated data come from the models with the SRES A1B. For daily maximum temperature, we calculate the probability of the temperature which is greater than or equal to 30 Celsius. The probability value in NIES model indicates that 1980-1999 data don’t reach 1 ％. But in the SRES A1B, the simulated probability in 2046-2065 is about 15 ％. In 2081-2100, the probability is 36 ％. For MPI model, the probability from 1980-1999 data don’t reach 9 ％. And in the SRES A1B, the probability from simulated 2081-2100 data is 47 ％. For daily minimum temperature, we calculate the probability of the temperature which is smaller than or equal to 16 Celsius. The probability value in NIES model during 1980-1999 period is about 4 ％. But in the SRES A1B, the simulated probability in 2046-2065 is less than 1 ％. In 2081-2100, the probability is even smaller decreasing. For MPI model, the probability from reproduced 1980-1999 period is only 2 ％. And in the SRES A1B, the probability from simulated 2081-2100 period almost is nonexistent. For precipitation, the PDF of two models don’t change much. In light rain (the rainfall is smaller than or equal to 5 mm day-1), the change of two models are not obvious. And during the heavy rain (the rainfall are greater than or equal to 40 mm day-1), the increasing trends embedded in two models. However for annual mean rainfall, the trends of two models are opposite. When we use the simulated result of two models, we should consider the difference between the data of model and observation. By PDF, the skill score of two models are around 0.8 based on the analysis from three variables. The meaning is the simulated PDF in the future is a reasonable methodology. In this study, we can show even though the simulations of the climate models are uncertain, we can still adopt the probability density functions method and come out quantitative analysis that can be useful in understanding the regional climate change characteristics.
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Lee, Cho-Heng Michael, and 李卓恆. "Evaluating the Impact of Patent Characteristics and Patent Litigation Probability on Firm Performance – The Case of Pharmaceutical Industry." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/d77xk7.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士國立中興大學
科技管理研究所
102
This paper investigates if patent characteristics and patent litigation probability affect firms’ short and long-term performances, which in past literature have mostly been associated with economic indicators or financial models. The patent data used in this research are downloaded from the USPTO patent database and patent litigation probabilities are obtained from previous study. To measure firm performance, the Return on Asset (ROA) and the market value are calculated as the short-term and long-term performances, respectively. The correlation coefficient is then employed to approach the ROA and the market value to evaluate if patent characteristics and patent litigation probability correlates with the short-term and long-term performances of firms. To further investigate into the relationships between patent characteristics, patent litigation probability and firm performance, the method of Granger Causality test is used to evaluate the possibility of causal relationships among the indicators. Lastly, the least square regression is used to evaluate the validity of the result of the Granger Causality test. The result indicates that there are indeed relationships present between the patent characteristics and firm performance; furthermore, the result of the Granger Causality test fortifies that by proving that there are statistical causal relationships among the patent characteristics and firm performance. The result of this paper sheds light for firms to make strategic decision based on the patent characteristics of their patent portfolio and to provide a novel way to identify firm performance.
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"Delay and Probability Discounting as Determinants of Sexual Risk Behavior: The Effects of Delay, Uncertainty, and Partner’s Characteristics." Master's thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.38473.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
abstract: The value of safe sex may be discounted based on contextual factors associated with an opportunity for sex. College students (n = 75) in a within-subjects study selected hypothetical sexual partners from a set of pictures and classified them based on attractiveness and estimated chance of having an STI. In the sexual delay discounting (SDD) task, participants rated their likelihood (0 – 100%) of waiting for some period of time (e.g., 3 hours) to have protected sex with their selected partners, when they could have immediate sex without protection. In the sexual probability discounting (SPD) task, participants rated their likelihood of having protected sex if the opportunity was uncertain (e.g., 50%), when they could have unprotected sex for sure (100%). All participants included in the final analyses were aware of and had a positive attitude towards protection against STIs as they indicated preference for immediate (or certain) protected sex. Results show that participants’ willingness to have safe sex systematically decreased as the delay to and odds against having safe sex increased. However, these discounting patterns were observed only in some partner conditions but not others, showing that preference for delayed (or uncertain) safe sex was altered by perceived attractiveness and STI risk of sexual partners. Moreover, the hyperbolic discounting model provided good to acceptable fit to the delay and probability discounting data in most-wanted and least-STI conditions. Gender differences in devaluation of safe sex were also found.Dissertation/Thesis
Masters Thesis Psychology 2016
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Hu, Chia-Ming, and 胡家銘. "Investigation on probability characteristics of different averaging-time velocity data and its effect on design wind speed prediction." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/4cc34p.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士淡江大學
土木工程學系碩士班
106
Taiwan is in the geographical position of multiple typhoons and earthquakes. The design of high-rise buildings must not only consider earthquake resistance, but also the impact of wind on structures. Taiwan''s current building wind resistance design specification estimates the design wind speed value based on the 10-minute average wind speed during the 50-year regression period. However, the average wind speed time used in different countries is different. There should be a constant conversion mode between different averaging time. For example, Durst Curve is used to calculate the wind speed value conversion at different averaging time. This study first used the five stations in Japan, namely Hachinohe, Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, and Kagoshima. The statistics were collected from the typhoon within 300 kilometers of the station from 2001 to 2007, and calculated. Each of the basic statistical characteristics of the typhoon''s mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis, and then combine the statistical characteristics of all the selected typhoons to calculate the statistical characteristics of the four regions, and use MATLAB to generate Gaussian distribution random numbers, and Using the non-Gaussian transformations proposed by Kwon and Kareem and Kanda and Lo, and the Weber simulation, a simulated extremum of the simulated typhoon is generated, which is the maximum simulated wind speed. A cumulative probability density distribution function curve is made using every hundred extreme values. Repeat one hundred sets of distribution curves and take the average line as the cumulative probability density distribution function curve representing the characteristics of this station, and observe its non-Gaussian distribution. The tail characteristics are classified into Gumbel distribution, Weibull distribution, and Frechet distribution, and the tail characteristics are discussed. Then, using the average time length in the Durst curve formula, the average wind speed conversion formula is converted into a 10-minute average time simulated wind speed and a 60-minute average time simulated wind speed converted into a 10-minute average time theoretical wind speed. The relationship between the theoretical wind speed of the 10-minute average time after the theoretical formula conversion and the simulated 10 minute average time simulated wind speed. In order to understand the influence of non-Gaussian on the average time conversion, Gaussian extremum simulations were performed for the typhoon mean wind speed values and standard deviations of each station, and compared with non-Gaussian results. The final list identifies the percentage of conversion error for different regression periods and indicates the reasons for the instability that may occur with the Durst Curve.
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Guo, Shih-Sian, and 郭仕賢. "Comparison of dose-response characteristics of five normal tissue complication probability models through outcomes of radiation pneumonitis in breast cancer patients." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ttda7v.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士國立高雄應用科技大學
電子工程系碩士班
103
Purpose : To investigate the relationship between lung dose and radiation pneumonitis in breast cancer patients after radiotherapy. Materials and methods : We built and compared five normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models through outcomes of radiation pneumonitis in breast cancer patients, and defined the best predictive NTCP model for local population in this study. 87 patients with breast cancer were evaluated and 5 outlier samples were excluded. In total, 82 patient data were used in this study. The patients were treated by intensity-modulated radiotherapy or hybrid intensity-modulated radiotherapy techniques. The patients were evaluated by chest computed tomography (CT) at 3 months after completion of radiation therapy. Density changes on chest CT were evaluated by comparing with the CT image prior to radiation therapy for radiation therapy treatment planning. Clinically complication was defined according to the modified Common Toxicity Criteria of the National Cancer Institute (CTC-NCIC). We used the sample data to build five NTCP models. The five models were LKB (Lyman Kutcher-Burman), Logistic, Schultheiss, Poisson and Kallman-s model, respectively. The five NTCP models were compared by different model performance validation tools. We also built LKB - Veff model based on the LKB model. LKB - Veff model provided the correlation of effective volume and dose at the same complication probability for clinical phycisian. Results : The fitted parameters of five NTCP models were (1) LKB model : TD50 = 21.42 Gy (95% CI, 20.13 - 22.83), m = 0.27 (95% CI, 0.18 - 0.56)；(2) Logistic model : TD50 = 21.41 Gy (95% CI, 20.12 - 22.86), γ= 1.48 (95% CI, 0.71 - 2.35)；(3) Schultheiss model : TD50 = 21.26 Gy (95% CI, 19.89 - 22.74), k = 5.65 (95% CI, 2.67 - 9.07)；(4) Poisson model : TD50 = 21.21 Gy (95% CI, 19.83 - 22.68), γ= 1.46 (95% CI, 0.74 - 2.21) ；(5) Kallman-s model : TD50 = 21.66 Gy (95% CI, 20.25 - 23.15), γ= 1.46 (95% CI, 0.74 - 2.20), s = 1.01. Overall performance Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) of Kallman-s model was better than the other four models, but other performance validation were equal in five models. Conclusions : Reducing lung radiation dose in breast cancer patients can effectively reduce the probability of radiation pneumonitis. The dose of 50% probability of complications of radiation pneumonitis was 21.66 Gy in Kallman-s model, which was the best model in our study. Reducing the effective volume of irradiated lung could improve the quality of life of breast cancer patients.
40
Wilson, Patrick S. "Do Word-Level Characteristics Predict Spontaneous Finiteness Marking in Specific Language Impairment?" 2015. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/masters_theses_2/215.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The correct use of morphological suffixes in obligatory contexts reflects linguistic knowledge and competence of speakers. Grammatical knowledge is acquired during a child’s period of primary language acquisition, and may be partial or incomplete due to normal linguistic variation found during acquisition, due to a child’s level of progression through typical chronological development, or due to the presence of language disorders, like specific language impairment (SLI). In the current study, we ask whether characteristics of verbs make it more or less likely that children will correctly use an inflectional morpheme. The morphemes of interest in the current study were third person singular –s (3S) and past tense –ed (ED). Data for analysis were taken from a database of spontaneous language samples collected from 40 children (20 with SLI and 20 developing typically; Hoover, Storkel, & Rice, 2012). Spontaneous language samples were analyzed for the presence or absence of each morpheme in obligatory contexts. For each word item, the uninflected base word was additionally analyzed for a number of phonological and lexical variables. After comparing children with SLI to typically developing peers group differences emerged with respect to the effect of phonological and lexical variables. Moreover, different variables were determined to predict the 3S and ED morphemes. The results are discussed highlighting relevant theoretical and clinical implications.
41
"An analysis of spatial and temporal variation in rainfall characteristics in Hong Kong." 1999. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5896328.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Wong Chun Kit.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1999.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves [132-143]).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
List of Tables --- p.i
List of Figures --- p.iv
List of Symbols --- p.v
Chapter CHAPTER ONE: --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- Objectives and Significance of the Study --- p.4
Chapter 1.2 --- Physical Setting of Hong Kong --- p.5
Chapter 1.3 --- Climate of Hong Kong --- p.9
Chapter 1.4 --- Data Acquisition --- p.11
Chapter 1.4.1 --- Raingauges in Hong Kong --- p.11
Chapter 1.4.2. --- Database for the Spatial Variation Analyses --- p.14
Chapter 1.4.2.1. --- Data Selection for the Analyses for Factors Affecting Rainfall ´ؤ Elevation and Aspect --- p.15
Chapter 1.4.2.2. --- Data Selection for the Classification of Stations and Inter-station Correlation Analysis --- p.17
Chapter 1.4.3 --- Database for the Temporal Variation Analyses --- p.20
Chapter CHAPTER TWO : --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.22
Chapter 2.1 --- Spatial Variation of Rainfall --- p.22
Chapter 2.2 --- Detection of Temporal Changes in Rainfall --- p.28
Chapter 2.3 --- Urban Influence on Rainfall --- p.29
Chapter 2.4 --- Studies in Hong Kong --- p.33
Chapter CHAPTER THREE : --- METHODOLOGY --- p.33
Chapter 3.1 --- Preliminary Processing of the Data --- p.38
Chapter 3.2 --- Data Analysis --- p.40
Chapter 3.2.1 --- General Pattern of Rainfall Distribution --- p.40
Chapter 3.2.2 --- Data Analyses of Spatial Variation --- p.41
Chapter 3.2.2.1 --- Correlation between Rainfall and Elevation --- p.41
Chapter 3.2.2.2 --- Correlation between Rainfall and Aspect --- p.42
Chapter 3.2.2.3 --- Classification of Stations --- p.43
Chapter 3.2.2.4 --- Inter-Station Correlation Analysis --- p.46
Chapter 3.2.3 --- Data Analysis of Temporal Variation --- p.46
Chapter 3.2.3.1 --- The Running Mean Method --- p.47
Chapter 3.2.3.2 --- The 'Standard Error of the Difference' Test --- p.49
Chapter CHAPTER FOUR: --- RESULTS AND DISCUSSION --- p.50
Chapter 4.1 --- Graphical Representation of Spatial Rainfall Pattern --- p.50
Chapter 4.1.1 --- Annual Rainfall Pattern --- p.50
Chapter 4.1.2 --- Monthly Rainfall Pattern --- p.56
Chapter 4.1.3 --- Frequency Distribution of Raindays --- p.59
Chapter 4.1.4 --- Pentade Rainfall Pattern --- p.64
Chapter 4.1.5 --- Diurnal Rainfall Pattern --- p.67
Chapter 4.1.6 --- Implications of the Spatial Rainfall Pattern --- p.70
Chapter 4.2 --- Analyses of Spatial Variation in Rainfall --- p.78
Chapter 4.2.1 --- Relationship between Rainfall and Elevation --- p.78
Chapter 4.2.2 --- Relationship between Rainfall and Aspect --- p.82
Chapter 4.2.3 --- Classification of Stations --- p.85
Chapter 4.2.3.1 --- Principal Components Interpretation --- p.87
Chapter 4.2.3.2 --- Result of Classification --- p.90
Chapter 4.2.4 --- Inter-Station Correlation Analysis --- p.98
Chapter 4.2.5 --- Discussion of the Rainfall Spatial Variation --- p.103
Chapter 4.3 --- Analyses of Temporal Variation in Rainfall --- p.107
Chapter 4.3.1 --- Annual Rainfall --- p.107
Chapter 4.3.2 --- Monthly Rainfall --- p.110
Chapter 4.3.3 --- Pentade Rainfall --- p.112
Chapter 4.3.4 --- Diurnal Rainfall --- p.117
Chapter 4.3.5 --- Discussion of the Rainfall Temporal Variation --- p.118
Chapter CHAPTER FIVE: --- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS --- p.126
Chapter 5.1 --- Summary of Findings --- p.126
Chapter 5.2 --- Limitation of this Research --- p.129
Chapter 5.3 --- Prospects of this Research --- p.130
Bibliography
42
Uhliar, Miroslav. "Ekonomické růstové modely ve stochastickém prostředí." Master's thesis, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-367898.
Повний текст джерела
43
El-Khatib, Mayar. "Highway Development Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Analysis, Critique and Advancement." Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10012/5741.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
While decision-making under uncertainty is a major universal problem, its implications in the field of transportation systems are especially enormous; where the benefits of right decisions are tremendous, the consequences of wrong ones are potentially disastrous.
In the realm of highway systems, decisions related to the highway configuration (number of lanes, right of way, etc.) need to incorporate both the traffic demand and land price uncertainties. In the literature, these uncertainties have generally been modeled using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process, which has been used extensively in modeling many other real life phenomena. But few scholars, including those who used the GBM in highway configuration decisions, have offered any rigorous justification for the use of this model.
This thesis attempts to offer a detailed analysis of various aspects of transportation systems in relation to decision-making. It reveals some general insights as well as a new concept that extends the notion of opportunity cost to situations where wrong decisions could be made. Claiming deficiency of the GBM model, it also introduces a new formulation that utilizes a large and flexible parametric family of jump models (i.e., Lévy processes). To validate this claim, data related to traffic demand and land prices were collected and analyzed to reveal that their distributions, heavy-tailed and asymmetric, do not match well with the GBM model. As a remedy, this research used the Merton, Kou, and negative inverse Gaussian Lévy processes as possible alternatives.
Though the results show indifference in relation to final decisions among the models, mathematically, they improve the precision of uncertainty models and the decision-making process. This furthers the quest for optimality in highway projects and beyond.