Книги з теми "Characteristic of probability"

Statistical mechanics concerns the transition from the microscopic to the macroscopic realm. On a macroscopic scale new phenomena arise that have no counterpart in the microscopic world. For example, macroscopic systems have a temperature; they might undergo phase transitions; and their dynamics may involve dissipation. How can such phenomena be explained? This chapter discusses the characteristic differences between the microscopic and macroscopic realms and lays out the basic challenge of statistical mechanics. It suggests how, in principle, this challenge can be tackled with the help of conservation laws and statistics. The chapter reviews some basic notions of classical probability theory. In particular, it discusses the law of large numbers and illustrates how, despite the indeterminacy of individual events, statistics can make highly accurate predictions about totals and averages.

Fat embolism syndrome is a complication of a range of conditions. It is hard to prevent, difficult to diagnose, and there is no specific effective treatment. The syndrome is composed of respiratory, haematological, neurological, and cutaneous symptoms and signs associated with trauma, in particular long bone fractures, and other disparate surgical and medical conditions. It most commonly follows orthopaedic surgery, but can also follow liposuction and medical conditions, as disparate as cardiopulmonary resuscitation and sickle cell disease are possible precipitants. The pathogenesis is still debated. It is clear that while fat emboli occur quite commonly, the clinical syndrome with respiratory, neurological, and other sequelae is rare. Diagnosis is by pattern recognition, but recently characteristic features seen on cerebral magnetic resonance imaging can be used to increase the probability of the diagnosis. Various therapeutic options have been tried and failed and treatment is currently supportive.

This chapter extends the survival-of-the-fittest evolutionary environment to consider the possibility that new political parties, when they first come into existence, do not pick decision rules at random but instead choose rules that have a track record of past success. This is done by adding replicator-mutator dynamics to the model, according to which the probability that each rule is selected by a new party is an evolving but noisy function of that rule's past performance. Estimating characteristic outputs when this type of positive feedback enters the dynamic model creates new methodological challenges. The simulation results show that it is very rare for one decision rule to drive out all others over the long run. While the diversity of decision rules used by party leaders is drastically reduced with such positive feedback in the party system, and while some particular decision rule is typically prominent over a certain period of time, party systems in which party leaders use different decision rules are sustained over substantial periods.

This paper begins by discussing variables influencing sentence severity imposed in white-collar cases in federal courts. Sentence outcomes imposed under indeterminate, presumptive, and advisory federal sentencing policies are discussed in terms of the effect of defendant characteristics, legally relevant case characteristics, and process-related variables on the probability of imprisonment, length of imprisonment, and probability of receiving a suspended sentence. Federal sentencing guidelines legalities are presented, with attention to white-collar crimes of larceny, embezzlement, counterfeiting, fraud and deceit, and forgery. Attention shifts to legal issues relevant to the adjudication and sentencing of white-collar offenders. The blurring of criminal and civil law in statutory law governing criminal prosecution and sentencing of white-collar offenders is dicussed. In addition, attention is given to both the offense-specific features of the federal sentencing guidelines, to mechanisms of discretion, and guideline departures, as they apply to sentencing in economic crimes.

This work aims to analyze the possible practical and legal repercussions of the implementation of technologies characteristic of the digital age in the dynamics of advocacy. Considering the increasing influence that scientific advances have exercised not only in human life, but especially in the ways of working and in the models of the professions, the objective was to prospectively investigate the transformations of this context in advocacy. In order to improve the understanding of the research, three common sectors-activities were separated between the more traditional advocacy: manual labor; systems and departments, highlighting the most recurring bottlenecks. Ahead, there were also three technologies highlighted in the technological revolution, which were: artificial intelligence; automation of legal documents and big data. In the meantime, possible resistance factors between law and technology were also discussed. Finally, through a bibliographic and exploratory methodological process, the research explored possible consequences of the direct insertion of these new technologies in each specific sector of traditional law, considering the functionalities and the problems that would be solved. Thus, there were several repercussions, both practical and legal, including the financial, methodological, strategic and organizational logistics of the offices, among which were mentioned: gain of time; fees. internal costs; data-based procedural strategy, and more. Still, in addition to the realization of the high probability of changes in the lawyer's practice, there was a need to seek solutions that really connect the law to innovations in this new scenario, with emphasis on the contracting of services offered by lawtechs.

Many people have a fragmented knowledge and understanding of the rules of mathematics and probability. As a consequence, they struggle with selecting the appropriate strategies to solve problems, and they often rely on intuitive solutions instead of normative rules. The purpose of this chapter is to introduce some typical intuitive strategies that people might apply when they solve mathematical or probability problems. Then the chapter describes the notions of primary and secondary intuitions, and gives an overview of the factors that might affect the selection of a particular intuitive strategy (such as certain individual differences variables and task characteristics). Finally, the chapter discusses the implications of these findings for researchers and educators.

This chapter analyzes relevant quantitative and qualitative research on honor killings. It includes an original empirical study—the Churchill-Holmes study—of 200 incidents from 28 countries and territories. Following a comparative analysis of major studies displayed in tables and charts, a number of generalizations, or central tendencies, are inferred. Central tendencies are divided into three major categories based on rough estimates of the probability that the characteristics in each category will be found in all or most instances of honor killing. Central tendencies pertain to the frequency of all known aspects of honor killings. This research serves as grounds for the analysis, hypotheses, and tentative conclusions drawn in the remainder of this book.

Presented reasearch aimed to develop and analyse the suitability of the CART models for prediction of the extent and probability of occurrence of damage to outer soil layers caused by timber harvesting performed under varied conditions. Having employed these models, the author identified certain methods of logging works and conditions, under which they should be performed to minimise the risk of damaging forest soils. The analyses presented in this work covered the condition of soils upon completion of logging works, which was investigated in 48 stands located in central and south-eastern Poland. In the stands selected for these studies a few felling treatments were carried out, including early thinning, late thinning and final felling. Logging works were performed with use of the most popular technologies in Poland. Trees were cut down with chainsaws and timber was extracted by means of various skidding methods: with horses, semi-suspended skidding with the use of cable yarding systems, farm tractors equipped with cable winches or tractors of a skidder type, and forwarding employing farm tractors with trailers loaded mechanically by cranes or manually. The analyses also included mechanised forest operation with the use of a harvester and a forwarder. The information about the extent of damage to soil, in a form of wheel-ruts and furrows, gathered in the course of soil condition inventory served for construction of regression tree models using the CART method (Classification and Regression Trees), based on which the area, depth and the volume of soil damage under analysis, wheel-ruts and furrows, were determined, and the total degree of all soil disturbances was assessed. The CART classification trees were used for modelling the probability of occurrence of wheel-ruts and furrows, or any other type of soil damage. Qualitative independent variables assumed by the author for developing the models included several characteristics describing the conditions under which the logging works were performed, mensuration data of the stands and the treatments conducted there. These characteristics covered in particular: the season of the year when logging works were performed, the system of timber harvesting employed, the manner of timber skidding, the means engaged in the process of timber harvesting and skidding, habitat type, crown closure, and cutting category. Moreover, the author took into consideration an impact of the quantitative independent variables on the extent and probability of occurrence of soil disturbance. These variables included the following: the measuring row number specifying a distance between the particular soil damage and communication tracks, the age of a stand, the soil moisture content, the intensity of a particular cutting treatment expressed by units of harvested timber volume per one hectare of the stand, and the mean angle of terrain inclination. The CART models developed in these studies not only allowed the author to identify the conditions, under which the soil damage of a given degree is most likely to emerge, or determine the probability of its occurrence, but also, thanks to a graphical presentation of the nature and strength of relationships between the variables employed in the model construction, they facilitated a recognition of rules and relationships between these variables and the area, depth, volume and probability of occurrence of forest soil damage of a particular type. Moreover, the CART trees served for developing the so-called decision-making rules, which are especially useful in organising logging works. These rules allow the organisers of timber harvest to plan the management-related actions and operations with the use of available technical means and under conditions enabling their execution in such manner as to minimise the harm to forest soils. Furthermore, employing the CART trees for modelling soil disturbance made it possible to evaluate particular independent variables in terms of their impact on the values of dependent variables describing the recorded disturbance to outer soil layers. Thanks to this the author was able to identify, amongst the variables used in modelling the properties of soil damage, these particular ones that had the greatest impact on values of these properties, and determine the strength of this impact. Detailed results depended on the form of soil disturbance and the particular characteristics subject to analysis, however the variables with the strongest influence on the extent and probability of occurrence of soil damage, under the conditions encountered in the investigated stands, enclosed the following: the season of the year when logging works were performed, the volume-based cutting intensity of the felling treatments conducted, technical means used for completion of logging works, the soil moisture content during timber harvest, the manner of timber skidding, dragged, semi-suspended or forwarding, and finally a distance between the soil damage and transportation ducts. The CART models proved to be very useful in designing timber harvesting technologies that could minimise the risk of forest soil damage in terms of both, the extent of factual disturbance and the probability of its occurrence. Another valuable advantage of this kind of modelling is an opportunity to evaluate an impact of particular variables on the extent and probability of occurrence of damage to outer soil layers. This allows the investigator to identify, amongst all of the variables describing timber harvesting processes, those crucial ones, from which any optimisation process should start, in order to minimise the negative impact of forest management practices on soil condition.

There are significant differences in labor market outcomes by gender in Tunisia. These gender differences differ substantially in the richer coastal and eastern regions and the poorer southern and western regions. This chapter uses the 2014 Tunisia Labor Market Panel Survey (TLMPS) to examine the characteristics of male and female labor market participants in the lagging southern, western, and central regions, and in the leading regions. The chapter also discusses results from an econometric analysis of the factors that influence monthly wages and the probability of employment for men and women respectively. Our results show that gender plays a huge role in labor market outcomes: women are less likely to participate in the labor force, are more likely to be unemployed, and receive lower wages. In addition, youth and educated women in lagging regions are particularly disadvantaged because they are less likely to find a job and may not have the option of moving to places where employment prospects are better. Moreover, our results suggest that wage discrimination against women is prevalent outside the leading region in Tunisia.

This book provides, without the use of specialist language, a description of diagnostic reasoning and error and a discussion of steps that could improve diagnostic accuracy. Drawing on work in cognitive psychology, it presents the key characteristics of human reasoning. It notes that complex cognitive tasks such as medical diagnosis require a synergy of intuition and analytical thinking and introduces the concept of bias. The book considers the value of current classifications of disease, the meaning of diagnostic thresholds, and the potential for overdiagnosis. It examines the role of the patient-centred approach in this context. It develops a description of the diagnostic process, provides illustrative examples and metaphors, and refers to the dual-process model. It suggests that medical training does not consistently provide a coherent account of diagnostic thinking and the associated risks of error. It considers the role of probability in diagnostic reasoning, noting the contribution and the limitations of both informal and mathematical estimates. It refers to clear evidence that error in medical diagnosis is a prevalent and potent cause of harm and may result from systems factors or cognitive glitches such as bias and logical fallacy. It presents cases with commentaries, highlighting the cognitive processes in diagnostic successes, near misses, and disasters. It concludes with proposals for change, notably in institutional culture; in professional culture, education, and training; and in the structure of medical records. The book advocates the development and deployment of computerized diagnostic decision support. It argues that these changes could significantly enhance patient safety.