Дисертації з теми "Changements climatiques – Aspect économique"
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Jean, Mélanie. "Sécheresse, changements climatiques et vulnérabilité : Le défi environnemental de l'Australie." Thesis, Université Laval, 2011. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2011/27911/27911.pdf.
Baechler, Laurent. "Action collective et allocation des ressources atmosphériques : le cas du changement climatique." Paris 9, 2000. https://bu.dauphine.psl.eu/fileviewer/index.php?doc=2000PA090059.
Ladeira, Garbaccio Grace. "Les aspects juridiques et économiques liés aux changements climatiques : l' étude de cas de la sidérurgie." Limoges, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009LIMO1004.
Rozenberg, Julie. "Eléments sur la robustesse des politiques climatiques." Paris, EHESS, 2014. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01832194.
This thesis looks for robustness in climate change mitigation policies assessment and implementation. Exploring the uncertainties surrounding future technologies, fossil fuel resources, policy instruments, consumption preferences, population and economie growth with an Integrated Assessment model, it disentangles the future drivers of future carbon emissions and of mitigation costs. Such methodologies improve the understanding of models, filter out the issues that do not really matter, help policymakers focus on critical factors and develop consensus about where the focus should be. The thesis also proposes to focus on instruments that are robust to political constraints thanks to their lower short-term impacts. Such instruments include performance standards or financial instruments that redirect the bulk of investments towards clean capital without affecting the owners of existing polluting capital
Hallegatte, Stéphane. "Interactions d'échelles en économie : application à l'évaluation des dommages économiques du changement climatique et des événements extrêmes." Paris, EHESS, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005EHES0048.
So far, climate change damage assessments are based on long term growth models, which neglect disequilibrium processes, that are assumed to be transient over short period. This thesis highlights, from a set of modelling exercises, how important the short-term transients and the endogenous economic variability are in the estimation of extreme events and climate change damages. It thus suggests the impossibility to evaluate the damages independently of a precise representation of economic growth and dynamics : damages are as sensitive to the nature and amount of impacts than to the dynamics of the economy they are applied on. Thus, uncertainty on future damages comes both from our incomplete scientific knowledge and from the uncertainty on the future organisation of our economies
Huet, Pauline. "Émergence et structuration de l'économie des changements climatiques (1975-2013) : analyse socio-historique d'un nouveau domaine de recherche." Paris, EHESS, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015EHES0019.
Focusing on the Economics of Climate Change (ECC), this thesis is a case study in the socio-historical analyzes of scientific fields. It analyses the genesis and institutionalization of this field of research, since its emergence in the mid-1970s. It is based on both quantitative and qualitative methods. Bibliometric analyzes were conducted on a corpus of scientific publications, and were supplemented by interviews and document analysis. By studying the development and structuration of the ECC, we understand to what extent they are consistent with existing analytical frameworks. Then a special focus on issues of interdisciplinarity and expertise allows us to improve our understanding of ECC's dynamics. This study is a prerequisite for further discussion about public and scientific controversies about global warming. Indeed, the public controversy (and researchers who study it) mainly focus on climate science, leaving little room for economic issues. Yet these are crucial in climate policy. Particular attention is given to the agreements and disagreements in ECC. A typology of potential controversies is proposed, followed by two case studies: the controversy over the Stern Review and the one around the model developed by Richard Tol
Brechet, Thierry. "Politiques de lutte contre lechangement climatique et modélisation macroéconomique : un modèle d'équilibre général pour l'économie belge." Paris 1, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000PA010032.
Quinquis, Bran. "Les conséquences du changement climatique sur l'économie de la Polynésie française." Polynésie française, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012POLF0007.
According to IPCC latest report (2007), small pacific islands are among the most vulnerable communities in the world (increase of temperature, cyclone intensification, sea level rise and ocean acidification). Beyond ecosystem modifications, climate induced risks are numerous for human activities. The purpose of our study is to focus on climate impacts in French Polynesia exclusively in economic terms. Pear farming and tourism are French Polynesia two major resources and thus will be carefully covered in two distinct case studies. On this first topic, we concluded that increase in lagoon temperature can only have a negative impact on pearl farming. On the other hand, in a medium run, and for geographic and capitalistic reasons, climate change may play a « moderator role » and finally solve the production problem. The drop in the tourism demand is mainly due to the world economic conjoncture. However, climate change can indirectly and directly worsen the dificulties this sector is already facing. For instance, beaches damage in Bora Bora could generate losses in hotel revenu up to 10. 14 billion Xpf a year. In other to better comprehend what is actually at stake, we propounded a socioeconomic vulnerabily index. Our results aim to become a decision tool to accompany local authorities toward imperative ecological measures for adapting our society to the impacts of climate change
Guivarch, Céline. "Évaluer le coût des politiques climatiques : de l'importance des mécanismes de second rang." Phd thesis, Université Paris-Est, 2010. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00539892.
Pottier, Antonin. "L’économie dans l’impasse climatique : développement matériel, théorie immatérielle et utopie auto-stabilisatrice." Paris, EHESS, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014EHES0052.
Greenhouse gas emissions still grow unabated. Instead of blaming policy-makers for the implementation gap, I question the toolbox of neo-classical economists and restate the conundrum as: how inadequate is economic theory as a mental map for climate change? I identify turning points in the history of resource economics and exhibit a constant trend of forgetting the material embeddedness of the economy. Economists' use of the production function is based on a misunderstanding, as the Cambridge controversy shows that it has no technical content. The cost-benefit analysis, allegedly the only way to be positive, is favored to assess climate change, even if it relies on unknown relationships. Damage function extrapolates shared prejudices; the incessant controversy on discounting highlights the inconsistency of the macroeconomic framework. An analysis of a recent article explains how economics can operate this distanciation from reality: loose connections between the mathematical structure of a model, the words used to describe it and its numerical results leave extraordinary space for interpretation. I then explore the relationship between the economy, economics and ideology through the study of two symbols: the homo economicus and the market. The peculier status of economics and the economy in Western societies is traced back to the 18th century. The current prominence of the market enhances the inadequacy of economic theory to address climate change. The sociological phenomenon of climate-skepticism and the failed construction of carbon markets can be seen as impediments to mitigation induced by the market mentality
Hiriart, Yolande. "Équité et risque moral dans les politiques de lutte contre le réchauffement climatique." Paris 1, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000PA010005.
Waisman, Henri. "Les politiques climatiques entre prix du carbone, rente pétrolière et dynamiques urbaines." Paris, EHESS, 2012. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00799199.
This thesis investigates the effects of constraints imposed on economic interactions by limitations due to natural resources, among which oil and urban land play a curcial role in the context of climate change. These dimensions, often neglected in existing analyses, have an ambiguous effect since they suggest both the risk of enhanced costs if carbon limitations reinforce the sub-optimalities caused by pre-existing constraints, but also, conversely, the possibility of co-benefits if the climate policy helps to correct some pre-existing imperfections of socio-economic trajectories. To investigate this issue, an innovative modeling framework of the energy-economy interactions is elaborated that embarks the specificities of the deployment of oil production capacities and the issues related to the spatial organization in urban areas. We demonstrate that, beyond the carbon price, the costs of climate policy essentially depend on the sequencing of complementary measures, with a crucial role of spatial policy designed to control transport-related emissions through mobility
Coulomb, Renaud. "Fossil fuels and climate policy." Paris, EHESS, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013EHES0137.
This thesis studies the interactions between carbon regulation and fossil fuels extraction. It addresses various questions: what is the optimal extraction path of polluting fossil fuels? What is the optimal carbon tax to implement? When investing in Carbon Capture and Starage technology (CCS) systems and carbon-free power plants? What are the impacts of optimal carbon taxation on profits of fossil fuels owner s? In a11 of the five chapters of this dissertation, we explore Hotelling-like models, close to Chakravorty et al. (2006b ). In these models, utility comes from the consumption of energy resources and the accumulation of C02 i n the atmosphere is regulated. At least two energy resources and carbon-emitting exhaustible resource and a carbon free renewable one, are available. The baseline model is modified throughout this dissertation, and changes concern: the environmental constraint (a carbon cap over C02 concentration and/or a damage function), the availability of CCS technology and its field of application, the duration of clean capital (CCS systems renewables plants) , the natural dilution (constant, proportional to the stock, or negligible) and the existence of several polluting resources. The first part studies the optimal use and deployment of carbon capture and renewables, when an environmental regulation is imposed through a cap over the C02 concentration. The second part deals with the optimal carbon taxation and carbon capture when marginal damages increase with the carbon stock and a carbon cap over the C02 concentration is set. The last part studies how owners of an averagely carbon-emitting resource (oil, gas) can benefit from carbon taxation
Zouabi, Oussama. "L'impact du changement climatique la production agricole et la croissance économique : Cas de la Tunisie." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Toulon, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015TOUL2008.
The aim of this research is to analysis both direct and indirect effect of the climate change on the agricultural production and the economic growth. This PhD research we will be based on an empirical methodology, through applying a spacial econometrics and the cointegration technique of a panel data as well as a multisectoral general equilibrium growth model. The first part is devoted to find the effect of the climate change on the agricultural production in a macro spatial level during the period 1980-2012. The main gaol of this first chapter of this PhD is to determine the direct and indirect effect of the weather forecast and the temperature changes in one region compared to the neighbouring regions. The originality of this spacial modelisation is to give an effective spacial effect. The second part of this research is aimed to use a micro spacial analysis to find out the effect of the climate change on the agricultural production in the long term way and for each region rather then all of them together as in the first chapter. In the last part of this PhD research we developed a general and dynamic equilibrium model for the Tunisian economy taking in a count eventual climate change forcast from 2015 to 2030. Aiming to calculate the effect of this change on the agricultural production and the economic aggregate in Tunisa. The resulats show that the climate change forecast in the futur will affect the agricultural production in Tunisia in both the short run and the long term and this is because of the irrigated and non irrigated plantations. The decrease of the production will affect the food industry which will decrease the level of the investment, the employment in this sector as well as the consumption
Lassus, Saint-Geniès Géraud de. "La prise en compte des aspects économiques du défi climatique dans le régime juridique international du climat." Thesis, Paris 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA010272.
Tackling climate change is indisputably an economic challenge. It requires a shift towards a new kind of economy Jess dependent on fossil fuel, and capable to protect the interests of future generations. Given that context, it thus appears essential that international climate policies mainly focus on promoting energy transition and maintaining a balanced approach between short-term economic interests and longer-term benefits associated with mitigating climate change. Based on this assumption, the thesis questions the importance granted by members of the UN climate change regime to the need of setting rules that favor a low-carbon growth model and regulate the pursue of immediate national economic interests. Through a detailed analysis of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and their law-making process, this study first underlines the limited scope of the international tools (such as market mechanisms) specifically designed by member States to promote a low-carbon economy. It also demonstrates that international climate rules ensure to all member States a high level of protection of their national short-term economic interests. Finally, the thesis shows that UN climate cooperation now tends to be characterized by a movement of renationalization of issues related to the promotion of energy transition and the articulation of economic and environmental values
Lassus, Saint-Geniès Géraud de. "La prise en compte des aspects économiques du défi climatique dans le régime juridique international du climat." Doctoral thesis, Université Laval, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/26033.
Sassi, Olivier. "L'impact du changement technique endogène sur les politiques climatiques." Phd thesis, Université Paris-Est, 2008. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00489258.
Cara, Stéphane de. "Dimensions stratégiques des négociations internationales sur le changement climatique." Paris 10, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001PA100021.
Dumas, Patrice. "L'évaluation des dommages du changement climatique en situation d'incertitude : l'apport de la modélisation des coûts de l'adaptation." Paris, EHESS, 2006. http://www.theses.fr/2006EHES0072.
The purpose of this thesis is the improvement of climate change damage assessment by the mean of : the use of a threshold damage function and an evaluation of the costs of adapting to a changed climate. Simulation and optimization compact climate economy integrated assessment models are solved to assess the damages. A stochastic threshold damage function leads to a precautionary effect for climate policies. In a cost-benefit framework, the threshold acts as a soft ceiling. Turning to the representation of adaptation, adaptive capital is split in categories corresponding with temperature ranges in optimization models. In simulation, a Kalman filter is used to model climate change detection. The results show strong anticipations. Additional costs arise mainly from over-investment allowing to follow climate change. The costs are not very sensitive to the amount of uncertainly, but they rise sharply in the case of no anticipation
Photinodellis, Roxane. "Politique climatique dans le secteur agricole : efficacité, coûts de surveillance, séquestration du carbone et risque." Electronic Thesis or Diss., université Paris-Saclay, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024UPASB011.
The aim of this thesis is to explore the trade-off between the effectiveness of net GHG mitigation policies and the costs associated with monitoring emissions and carbon sequestration. In the first contribution, our objective is to estimate the marginal cost andeffectiveness in terms of mitigating net GHG emissions for several policies partially covering emission sources and sinks. We find that subsidies for total carbon sequestrationand for carbon contained only in above-ground biomass are more cost-effective than aGHG tax. In the second contribution, at the scale of the plot, we examine the costs of participation in two types of carbon contracts, one model-based and the other results-based. For the latter type, we take into account the risk aversion of farmers regarding the uncertainty surrounding carbon sequestration results. The goal is to highlight the trade-offs regarding risk-sharing between the regulator and farmers, while defining theoretical conditions for farmer participation in these contracts. In the third contribution, at the scale of a French region, we compare the cost-effectiveness of different carbon contracts, whether results-based, model-based, or practice-based. This analysis takes into account some of the heterogeneity among farmers. Our results indicate that the most cost-effective contract form is to remunerate farmers per hectare for the implementation of intra-parcel agroforestry
Zylberberg, Yanos. "Essais sur les catastrophes naturelles." Paris, EHESS, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011EHES0047.
This thesis looks at reallocation of resources in the aftermath of natural disasters. The first part investigates the patterns of voluntary redistribution in small Vietnamese villages affected by a wave of tropical typhoons. The influence of needy families affects the reallocation process. In particular, the degree of redistribution is smaller when the distribution of losses is skewed in favour of spared families. When affected households are in the minority, they do not put enough pressure on the rest of the community and cannot extract a large compensation from them. The second part of this thesis analyzes the macroeconomic distortions induced by natural disasters. Capital losses of the order of 1 € generates economic slack of 40 cents. A temporary decrease of productivity is responsible for at least 2/3 of this production slowdown. This part also illustrates the importance of financial frictions in the immediate recovery after a shock. Affected entrepreneurs may lose access to credit as a result of their capital losses. Differential responses of economies following catastrophes are greatly explained by this dimension
Fouqueray, Timothée. "Adaptations aux incertitudes climatiques de long terme : trajectoires socio-écologiques de la gestion forestière française." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019SACLA029.
Adapting forest management to climate change (CC) is a key issue, as forests are crucial for mitigation policies and the provision of many ecosystem services (ES). Understanding the magnitude of the progress made in this respect can help shape further adaptation developments and avoid the putative maladaptive side effects of forest management evolutions. Here, I aim to bridge the knowledge gap of adaptation implementation in French forests.Chapter 1: Based on semi-structured interviews with foresters, my findings highlight unprecedented aspects of adaptations: (i) a focus on productive ES at the expense of other essential services such as water supply or natural habitats; (ii) adaptations rely on technical changes in forest management and do not deal with climate impacts through organizational or economic tools; and (iii) envisaging ecological processes through adaptations is instrumental and limited to small spatial and temporal scales. My results also extend the existing body of knowledge to the framework of forest management: (i) CC is not the main driver of forestry changes; (ii) extreme events are windows of opportunity to stimulate adaptive changes; and (iii) proactive adaptation to unexperienced hazards is very weak.Chapter 2: Assessment of the diversity of research projects in the forest sciences focusing on CC. I categorized projects according to discipline and main focus, using data from the online description of French public calls for proposals and from selected projects. Since 1997, mitigation research has gradually given way to adaptation. Despite pledges for the inclusion of social sciences, research rarely draws on the social sciences and focuses on ES of economic interest. Biomass production is paramount, being addressed either directly or through projects on tree species of industrial interest. Hence, instead of a diverse search for adaptation strategies, climate research is geared toward a few ES. Without denying the need for timber and biofuel production, I encourage public funders to complement current calls for proposals with more diverse approaches beneficial for both biomass production and other ES.Chapter 3: I study how multiple mechanisms for the mitigation of CC have been developed, drawing on a combination of reducing and offsetting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While mechanisms are mandatory for certain economic sectors, some business that are not required to mitigate their GHG emissions would nevertheless like to do so. I examine two study cases in France to analyze how public and private foresters seized this opportunity to obtain complementary funding from such companies for forestry operations. I focus on offset contracts issued by associations linking public sector forestry agencies, forest landowners, and offset funders. Carbon mitigation was a reason shared by all contractors to commit to the agreement, although it concealed multifarious motivations. Hence, I argue that voluntary offset contracts act like a Trojan horse by enabling foresters to dialogue with entities that would otherwise not be interested in supporting forest management. Regional embedding was crucial to overcoming the mitigation challenges.Chapter 4: To gain insight on how can socio-economic adaptive tools complement technical evolutions of forestry, I designed Foster Forest, a participatory simulation of forest management. It combines a role-playing game, an agent-based model, and a scenario of CC with high uncertainties. Drawing from multiple applications in French regions, I show that climate change is not a short-term matter of concern for private and public foresters. I analyze the emergence of socio-economic changes (mainly payment for carbon storage) in the provision of ES, and participants’ negotiations to spontaneously change the simulation rules. I also highlight how collective adaptive action was steered by stakeholders with a public interest role
Zouabi, Oussama. "L'impact du changement climatique la production agricole et la croissance économique : Cas de la Tunisie." Thesis, Toulon, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015TOUL2008.
The aim of this research is to analysis both direct and indirect effect of the climate change on the agricultural production and the economic growth. This PhD research we will be based on an empirical methodology, through applying a spacial econometrics and the cointegration technique of a panel data as well as a multisectoral general equilibrium growth model. The first part is devoted to find the effect of the climate change on the agricultural production in a macro spatial level during the period 1980-2012. The main gaol of this first chapter of this PhD is to determine the direct and indirect effect of the weather forecast and the temperature changes in one region compared to the neighbouring regions. The originality of this spacial modelisation is to give an effective spacial effect. The second part of this research is aimed to use a micro spacial analysis to find out the effect of the climate change on the agricultural production in the long term way and for each region rather then all of them together as in the first chapter. In the last part of this PhD research we developed a general and dynamic equilibrium model for the Tunisian economy taking in a count eventual climate change forcast from 2015 to 2030. Aiming to calculate the effect of this change on the agricultural production and the economic aggregate in Tunisa. The resulats show that the climate change forecast in the futur will affect the agricultural production in Tunisia in both the short run and the long term and this is because of the irrigated and non irrigated plantations. The decrease of the production will affect the food industry which will decrease the level of the investment, the employment in this sector as well as the consumption
Aykut, Stefan Cihan. "Comment gouverner un 'nouveau risque mondial' ? : la construction du changement climatique comme problème public à l'échelle globale, européenne, en France et en Allemagne." Phd thesis, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS), 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00757106.
Bibas, Ruben. "Methodological, technical and macroeconomic insights on the climate and energy transition : forward-looking analysis, technologies and investment." Thesis, Paris Est, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PESC1076.
This dissertation discusses methodological, technical and macroeconomic insights on the energy transition for climate mitigation. The first part deals with the theoretical analysis of empirical models of the energy-economy-environment system. Model present uncertainties in terms of parameter values, structural mechanisms and the pertinence of the model scales. The study of the role of forward-looking analysis and its tools show an insufficient treatment of the structural uncertainty contained within the models. Therefore, we study in depth the applied tools of forward-looking analysis to elicit the forward-looking vision they embody through three axes. the interdependences they include, the transformation mechanisms and the transition representation. First, the interdependences they include manifest in terms of accounting schemes, feedback loop between energy and economic growth, value added, and the representation of activity levels in relation to technologies. Then, the transformation drivers are discussed: the economic growth engine as well as the source of the evolution of demand patterns and technical progress. Finally, we comment on the widely spread way of the representation the transition as a pathway in equilibrium for the technology dynamics, the economic choices as well as the markets representation. We conclude that this specification of the transition is inherent to traditional production function to represent both technical and economic choices. This brings about a discussion on the status of the macroeconomic equilibrium in the Imaclim tool, which is Walrasian CGE model with a transition in disequilibrium. The second part regroups empirical studies of the macroeconomic impacts of climate change mitigation. First, we examine at the global level the inclusion of technologies in the Imaclim-R World model to assess the potential, limitations and the impact on the timing of action of bioenergy options and energy efficiency policies. We explain technically how bioenergy technologies are included within the model to shed light on the complementarity of bioenergy and CCS and assess their impact of the temporal macroeconomic impacts of climate mitigation. Also, we present the representation of energy efficiency with a detailed analysis of the mechanisms through which it impacts growth and assess the interplay with the timing of climate mitigation. Second, we present a study to design energy transition scenarios at the French level with stakeholder involvement and discuss the macroeconomic impacts, in particular on investment. We present the role of the Imaclim-R France model to involve stakeholders around participative scenario creation. Then, we discuss the technological and macroeconomic impacts of these scenarios. In particular, we examine the consequences for investment needs and show that the carbon tax can be reduced with a strong political signal
Taconet, Nicolas. "Dynamics and distribution of climate change impacts : insights for assessing mitigation pathways." Thesis, Marne-la-vallée, ENPC, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021ENPC0001.
Because climate change affects economies at different scales, quantifying its impacts is particularly challenging. Yet, understanding climate change impacts is key to design appropriate mitigation and adaptation response. Damage assessment allows to set global targets and regional policies against the cost of inaction, and to prepare for adaptation by highlighting future vulnerabilities and hotspots. This thesis analyse how the dynamics and distribution of climate change impacts affects the assessment of mitigation pathways. First, I show that climate system dynamics matters to evaluate the resulting economic impacts, which increases the present value of mitigation actions. Second, using different assessments of climate change impacts aggregated at the country level, I analyse the distributional effects of different emission pathways. Finally, I show how spillovers and structural change affect the distribution of impacts, through the example of heat stress on productivity
Bertelli, Olivia. "Trois essais sur la sécurité alimentaire en Afrique Sub-Saharienne." Paris, EHESS, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016EHES0072.
Despite the emphasis put by the international community on the need to achieve food security, still today 795 million of people suffer from hunger, two thirds of whom live in rural areas. This thesis aims at shedding light on the determinants that cause households food insecurity in the Sub-Saharan context. The first part of this work illustrates the shortcomings of existing measures of food security and assesses the statistical validity of a multidimensional food security scale. Based on such statistical analysis, I, then, turn to a micro-econometric approach for investigating the role played by the number of children in granting household food security. Lastly, I explore whether household welfare related priorities, among which achieving food security, might explain the puzzling existence of negative profits in agricultural activities
Bastit, Félix. "An economic approach to multiple risks in forests." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lorraine, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023LORR0256.
Forests are a major natural resource in Europe. It covers 33% of the territory, accounts for 0.2% of European GDP and provides 3.6 million jobs. European forests are also the source of numerous ecosystem services such as wood production and carbon storage. However, they are subject to numerous hazards: wildfires, windstorms, droughts, insect outbreaks, etc., which threaten the provision of these services. In addition, climate change is increasing the probability and intensity of these hazards, as well as their interactions. From an economic point of view, two main risks arise from the occurrence of natural hazards: a production risk (wood and carbon storage) and a market risk (price volatility).The literature has focused on wood production risk at stand scale, since this is the relevant scale for forest management decisions. However, this is not the right scale for modeling large-scale natural hazards, nor for modeling the effects of price changes. In this thesis, we have therefore decided to work at several different spatial scales: stand, regional, country and continent. Furthermore, potential interactions between natural hazards have rarely been considered, even though they could lead to phenomena of unprecedented magnitude. Price risk has also been studied extensively in the literature, but generally independently of production risk, even though there is a strong correlation between the two, as demonstrated by price falls after major historical storms. In this thesis, we will try to take this correlation into account.This work is divided into four parts. Firstly, a review of the forest economics literature shows the current limitations and the most promising avenues of research. The main conclusion of this work is that natural hazards are generally considered independent in forest economics, whereas ecological models are more inclusive.In response to this, in the second chapter we decided to abandon the classical forest economics model to study the resilience of a self-sufficient regional timber market to generic hazards of catastrophic magnitude. We have studied the levels of hazards and acceptable return times to ensure the stability of long-term market equilibrium.In the third chapter, we applied this model more precisely to the French forestry sector, using a recursive partial equilibrium model (French Forest Sector Model). A spatially explicit simulation module for windstorms and insect outbreaks was developed. This enabled us to establish results on the strategies of the various economic actors in the sector in the event of the occurrence of interacting natural hazards. We also studied the desirable public policies to be implemented in anticipation of the occurrence of major storms. We then discussed the robustness of public policies to mitigate climate change, such as intended nationally determined contributions from the Paris Agreement, facing natural disturbances.In the final chapter, the potential cost of climate change based on wood production at European level was estimated, including the four economically significant tree species in Europe. We have shown that losses due to catastrophic natural hazards are likely to increase significantly as a result of climate change, but that some of these losses will be offset by gains in forest productivity. These effects are, however, spatially very heterogeneous, leading to winners and losers, for whom climate change mitigation strategies could prove all the more complicated to implement in the event of a reduction in their forest carbon sink
Weikmans, Romain. "Le financement international de l'adaptation au changement climatique: quelle vision de l'aide ?" Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209004.
Les contestations normatives relatives à la nature des transferts financiers Nord-Sud visant l’adaptation au changement climatique et à ses relations avec l’aide publique au développement (APD) se sont considérablement accentuées depuis 2009 lorsque les pays développés se sont conjointement engagés à fournir des ressources «nouvelles et supplémentaires » à hauteur de 30 milliards de dollars pour la période 2010-2012 et à mobiliser collectivement 100 milliards de dollars par an d’ici à 2020, en les répartissant de manière « équilibrée » entre l’atténuation et l’adaptation dans les pays en développement. Mouvements de solidarité internationale, organisations non gouvernementales de protection de l’environnement, représentants des pays en développement, et parfois institutions multilatérales de développement :nombreux sont les acteurs qui appellent à la mise en place d’un financement international de l’adaptation qui existerait séparément de l’aide, en représentant une forme de « compensation » liée à la responsabilité disproportionnée des pays développés dans l’occurrence du changement climatique.
Notre thèse se construit à partir d’un constat :celui de la déconnexion entre une hypothèse largement répandue dans la littérature académique (i.e. l’existence d’un financement international de l’adaptation qui serait distinct de l’APD – et original sous divers aspects) et la réalité observable (i.e. l’existence d’un tel financement ne se vérifie pas dans les faits). Comment expliquer cette déconnexion ?Telle est précisément la question que nous tentons d’élucider dans le présent document. Nous formulons l’hypothèse selon laquelle les discours opposant le financement international de l’adaptation et l’aide au développement sont le produit d’une vision particulière de ce que devrait être l’APD. L’ambition de notre recherche est dès lors de caractériser cette vision normative de l’aide et d’examiner ses manifestations dans une série de débats récurrents qui traversent la question du financement international de l’adaptation. Nous mettons en évidence le fait que ces discours renouvellent une vision de l’aide entre États souverains destinée à répondre aux injustices internationales et à alimenter un transfert de ressources régulier entre pays riches et pays pauvres.
Doctorat en Sciences
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Demailly, Damien. "Compétitivité et fuites de carbone dans l'industrie sous politique climatique asymétrique." Paris, EHESS, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008EHES0152.
Within a close economy, the economic efficiency of a tradable CO2 allowance system is maximum when all allowances are auctioned. Within an open economy, the competitiveness losses and carbon leakage challenge this efficiency for industrial sectors like cement or steel. There are two alternatives: border adjustment and output-based allocation. The former is politically sensitive but economically justified. The economic efficiency of the latter is dubious: there are many uncertainties on the magnitude of potential competitiveness losses and carbon leakage. These uncertainties are due to the lack empirical works on some key parameters and to the weakness of existing modelling works which assess these losses and leakage. Alternative modelling works lead to a better understanding of industrials dynamics but to similarly poor assessment
Raymond, Florian. "Longs épisodes secs hivernaux dans le bassin méditerranéen et conditions atmosphériques associées : variabilité contemporaine et future (1957-2100)." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017UBFCK017.
In the context of climate change, as reflected by a dryer Mediterraneanbasin, this thesis focused on the study of the contemporary and future variability(1957-2100) of the wintertime (September to April) very long dryspells events (called VLDSe) in the Mediterranean basin. An original methodologywas developed in this thesis in order to define VLDSe as singularclimatic events, characterized by location, duration and spatial extent criteria.76 VLDSe were detected in the Mediterranean basin on the contemporaryperiod (1957-2013). These events are divided into 4 main geographicalpatterns: North-East, West, Scattered Localized and South-East. North-East and West configurations are associated with anticyclonic conditionslocated approximately 1 000 km northwestern to the areas affected by theVLDSe, favoring a clear sky and no precipitations. The Scattered Localizedand South-East configurations are special: the first one is characterized asa residual class grouping VLDSe with small spatial extent and distributedthroughout the entire basin, and the second one is characterized by seasonalVLDSe which are the continuation of the dry summer observed in the eastof the Mediterranean basin.Euro-Atlantic weather regimes have some control on the VLDSe. Thepositive phase of the north-atlantic oscillation regime (NAO+) is the onlyone that is clearly favorable to the development of VLDSe on almost the entirebasin. The east-atlantic regime (EA) does not show any control on theVLDSe, and the atlantic ridge (AR) and the negative phase of the northatlanticoscillation (NAO-) regimes are generally detrimental to VLDSe. However,some VLDSe can sometimes be associated with AR, EA and NAOregimes.This requires these three weather regimes to be associated withslightly higher atmospheric pressure northwest of the areas impacted bythe VLDSe, compared to their respective climatology. Long duration of theAR, EA and NAO+ regimes, which are coupled with sustained atmosphericstability, are preferentially associated with VLDSe, in contrast to the shortduration. Conversely, the long duration of the NAO- regime, reinforcingthe low atmospheric pressure on Europe and the Mediterranean basin, areweakly associated with VLDSe.Although the two climate models ALADIN52 and LMDZ4-NEMOMED8 differ in several respects, they agree in that VLDSe should be longer by 2100,especially in the RCP8.5 trajectory. A multi-model analysis with 12 CMIP5simulations shows that wintertime sea-level pressure tends to increase in theAtlantic Ocean, off the French coast and in the central the Mediterraneanbasin for the RCP8.5 trajectory. Conversely, the frequency and duration ofthe 4 weather regimes do not show significant trends until the end of the21st century.Finally, a study is carried out to assess the impact of VLDSe on agriculturalproduction in Spain. The number of VLDSe days has a larger impactson the yields of barley, wheat and oats (winter species and cultivatedthrough rainfed agriculture) than the simple ratio of dry days or seasonalrainfall amounts in Spain. A two-season case study, based on seasons withcomparable rainfall amounts, shows that in addition to yields, a VLDSecauses a significant decrease in soil moisture and in the Ebro River flow
Dhenain, Sandrine. "Les territoires littoraux languedociens face aux changements globaux : trajectoires et politiques d'adaptation." Thesis, Paris, Institut agronomique, vétérinaire et forestier de France, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018IAVF0002/document.
Since the 2000s, adaptation to climate change has been a new consideration for local territories in France, but its implementation is complex. Adaptation is not only a new issue for public policies but also a concept tinted with a semantic blur. At the same time, it is presented as a very technical issue. It is often highlighted as a state to reach. Decision-makers can "operationalize" adaptation by simply applying a specific methodology. However, adaptation is not only a mechanism but it is also a process that implies economic, social and ecological trade-offs for socio-ecological systems. These political dimensions are often implicit. Our work focuses on adaptation process and public policies. We studied local public policies implemented and discussed for the coastlines on the eastern coastal area of Languedoc Roussillon in the south of France that is facing global changes. We combine vulnerability and resilience approaches with sociology/political science in order to investigate adaptation pathways and local public policies and instruments. We conducted an empirical analysis of local actions and strategic plans related to climate but also to urban planning, flooding and water management. In order to provide a vehicle to clarify this concept of adaptation and its political dimensions, we propose a typology of adaptation measures. We found four logics that associate different political instruments and reflect different degrees of transformation. Secondly, we show that the issue of adaptation is framed differently by the different stakeholders. We show the gap between the national frame of standards and multiple local frames. Those frames can limit the panel of solutions that are discussed locally and can allow for compromises. The different types of actions constitute the ‘repertoire’ of adaptation but its implementation is constrained by local configurations of actors, power relationships. Throughout our work, we have highlighted the political dimensions of adaptation actions, power relationships and governance issues. We shed a light on trade-offs inherent in adaptation choices
Tevenart, Camille. "L’incertitude en tant que frein à l’adoption de pratiques d’atténuation dans l’agriculture." Thesis, Université de Lorraine, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019LORR0156.
Hidden costs limit the reduction of GHG emissions associated to agricultural productions. Uncertainty is inherent in farmers’ production decisions, and impact them through different drivers: beliefs, risk, information, ambiguity, are just as many elements that can limit the spread of mitigation practices in the agricultural sector. In this thesis, we first present a complete literature review about agri-environmental measures and the diverse approaches of uncertainty in microeconomics and agricultural economics. We then develop a model of adoption decision showing that 3 hidden costs associated to uncertainty can prevent new practices’ adoption in a non-additive way and coexist (option value, risk premium, informational externalities), so that the regulator must socialize them in order to reduce GHG emissions. Then, we implement a land conversion model and extent it in an empirical estimation strategy of the impact of herb yields volatility on the shadow value of grasslands in the French forage mix. The multinomial logistic model is estimated through an instrumental approach using meteorological data. Finally, we make a survey of a sample of farmers in order to measure their attitudes towards risk and ambiguity (Multiple price list) and estimate their impact on nitrogen fertilization decisions, according to the whole application and the splitting practice
Leblanc, Florian. "Controverses économiques et environnementales autour des hydrocarbures non conventionnels : les enseignements de la modélisation intégrée." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PSLEH116.
From the perspective of economic and environmental controversies over unconventional oil and gas resources, this thesis contributes to the development of integrated modelling tools intwo aspects : their ability to reflect the long-term dynamics of energy markets ; and the consideration of the links between the economy and the dynamics of the various greenhouse gases.In the first case, a set of simulations with the Imaclim-R model highlights the economic impacts of shale gas and light tight oil through (i) the links between growth paths and technicalinertia ; (ii) the conditionality of US competitiveness gains on implicit or explained strategies ; and (iii) the conditionality of US competitiveness gains on this country implicit or explicit strategies in terms of international specialization and exchange rate regime. In the course of these simulations, we study (α) the adjustment processes towards the long-term equilibrium, looking at the conditions of existence and convergence of the model temporary equilibria ; (β) the tractability limits of a stylized model of Imaclim-R reproducing the main mechanisms.In the second case, the question of the role of methane in short and long term climate strategies is addressed. The integration of the Oscar2.2 Earth System model into the Imaclim-Rmodel is used to assess the role of methane in terms of mitigation costs and to assess the risk of emissions leakage at shale gas wellheads. The simulations show that, on the one hand, theeconomic advantage of shale gas availability can be balanced against the costs induced by these emissions leakage. On the other hand, the ambitous climate strategies aiming at limitingtemperature increases well below 2° or 1.5°C require a more instant control of methane
Tchoupé, Makougoum Christelle Flore. "Changement climatique au Mali : impact de la secheresse sur l'agriculture et stratégies d'adaptation." Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne (2017-2020), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018CLFAD011.
Mali is a West African country where agriculture is mainly rain-fed, therefore essentially dependent on climatic conditions. This strong dependence between agriculture and climate makes it an interesting field of investigation, and especially with agriculture being the mainstay of Mali’s economy. Relying on theoretical and empirical methods, this thesis aims to contribute to a better understanding of the impact of climate change on agricultural production and to a better understanding of farmers’ practices that make it possible to adapt to climate change. The first chapter of this thesis focused on the manifestations of climate change and their impacts on cereals production. Analysis of correlations between series of climate and agricultural data indicates that, overall, climate change has a damaging effect on cereals yields. After this analysis at the production level, we turned to the analysis of producer’s behavior. Hence, the second chapter focuses on the managerial performance of farmers. Using a stochastic frontier analysis, we found that a part of the farmers’ inefficiency is due to climate change. The results also revealed that even though there is inefficiency due to climate, it is low compared to technical inefficiency of the farmer. Subsequently, we concentrated on how to maintain or increase agricultural production in a context of climate change. For this purpose, the third chapter identifies the determinants of adaptation to climate change. We focused on agricultural adaptation practices that preserve the environment. We used a multinomial logit model. The analysis demonstrated that the socio-demographic characteristics of farm households, the biophysical characteristics of plots and the occurrence of a drought influence the adoption of adaptation strategies. Finally, the fourth chapter studies the determinants of farm mechanization using the Heckman selection model. The results suggest that drought reduces the odds of farm mechanization. We also found that the intensity of farm mechanization increases with increase of farm size and decreases with the increase of family workforce
Quefelec, Stephane. "Les effets du changement climatique sur les pays méditerranéens." Thesis, Aix-Marseille 2, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011AIX24010.
This thesis studies the links between development and climate change in Mediterranean countries to better understand the processes and interactions in specific games in the region, particularly in the Maghreb and the Mashreq. In Chapter 1, we review the state of scientific knowledge on climate change at global level and at Mediterranean level. This allows us to address the problem of climate projections and analyze the results for the Mediterranean. On this basis, in Chapter 2, by comparing the projections of climate change and the local context of development, we highlight a relatively higher vulnerability of the developing Mediterranean countries. We discuss in Chapter 3, methods and tools to estimate the economic cost of climate change and deduce lessons for the Mediterranean countries. To go further in the characterization and understanding of the mechanisms at play in the Mediterranean, we propose, in Chapter 4, econometric approaches using long term panel data. We test the impact of climate variables on, first, the level of GDP per capita and, second, on cereal yields. The results show that even rich Mediterranean countries are sensitive to climate change - at least over the period 1950-2000 - although much less than Southern and Eastern developing countries of the Mediterranean basin. Furthermore, we confirm that agriculture is a major channel of climate change impact in the economy, particularly in developing countries. The issue of water appears in a key parameter in adaptation to climate change. Thus, in Chapter 5, we analyze the state of water resources, the existing modes of governance and adaptation options available to Mediterranean arid countries. We present a simulation of future demands by sector in North Africa, enabling us to obtain orders of magnitude of the expected benefits of different policy options that can be followed by the government. We show that water demand management is one of the key tools to adapt to climate change in Mediterranean countries and that its implementation depends primarily on governance reforms
Dupré, la Tour Marie-Alix. "Towards a Decarbonized Energy System in Europe in 2050 : Impact of Vector Coupling and Renewable Deployment Limits." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris, EHESS, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023EHES0014.
To address climate change, Europe is committed to a decarbonized energy system by 2050.The power system has a large potential for decarbonization. It can thus contribute to the decarbonization of other vectors (hydrogen for example), which will therefore tend to become more electrified. Therefore, this thesis has focused on the decarbonization of the power system on the one hand, and the interaction between the various energy vectors on the other.The decarbonization of the power vector will involve the use of renewable energies. However, the studies that evaluate their potential obtain very different values. In the first chapter, which consisted of a systematic literature review of wind and photovoltaic studies of potential in Europe, the variability of these values was examined. The areal limits of the potentials are not restrictive, and the variability of the values is due to the addition of socio-political criteria to the calculations of potential. Ultimately, the limit to the development of renewables will not be technical feasibility but political and societal will and limits of the industrial sector, including the availability of the necessary natural resources (metals, etc.).In a second chapter, the operation and prices of this coupled system with fixed capacities were studied. The influence of the couplings on the prices of the energy vectors was underlined. In particular, the flexibility of the demand for synthesis gas (via electrolysis) could set the electricity prices on a majority of the time steps of the year. The importance of seasonal stock management in the formation of gas prices, and therefore electricity prices, was highlighted. To operate optimally, such a system requires a high level of coordination between vectors. Variants that degrade coordination show a significant increase in the operating costs of the energy system.Finally, a third chapter addressed the consequences of energy couplings on the system flexibility requirements. Variants on each vector were analyzed through the evaluation of the flexibility needs based on indicators on several time scales. In particular, the interest of coordination between vectors was confirmed: it also avoids massive investments
Mroué, Bouchra. "Decarbonization strategies : a game theory perspective." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lorraine, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024LORR0027.
This thesis delves into the study of climate change by the tools of game theory, investigating strategies for global emissions reduction. The journey begins with an informal introduction, providing insights into the modeling of climate change problems using game theory and optimization—the twin pillars of the thesis. Chapter 2 provides a formal treatment, presenting preliminaries which are instrumental for the subsequent chapters. Graph theory definitions and key concepts in game theory, pivotal to the thesis, are revisited in this foundational chapter. Chapter 3 outlines the motivation for the research subject addressed in this thesis and summarizes the proposed contributions. It critically examines the limitations of the current emission reduction strategies, primarily driven by short-term economic considerations, blocking global efforts. Next, we present a thorough survey of the climate change models and the theoretical frameworks employed for their analysis. Climate models, inspired by IPCC projections, are examined to unravel the circumstances influencing nations’ behavior in emissions reduction. In Chapter 4, we formulate a static game model in the strategic form, allowing us to study the decision-making process and exhibit environmentally conscious behavior. To reach this goal, we conduct a complete analysis of the Nash equilibria of the game. We provide conditions under which the equilibrium is unique and numerically analyze the impact of different modeling choices. The Chapter ends with a brief discussion summarizing the takeaway messages of this part. The study continues in Chapter 5, where the climate change problem is cast as an imitation game. In this setup, the players are minimizing a utility function including socio-economic benefits, global climate change damage, and an imitation term capturing the influence of the other players. The Nash equilibrium analysis unveils a variety of players’ behaviors under climate change awareness and mutual influence. Key parameters, such as the weight of imitation, are numerically analyzed, emphasizing the importance of coordination and cooperation in mitigating climate change. This thesis explores the complex interplay between climate considerations and game theory, providing a nuanced understanding of global emissions reduction strategies. The provided insights contribute to the broad subject of finding sustainable solutions for addressing the urgent issue of global warming
Dullieux, Rémy. "Jeux dynamiques relatifs au changement climatique." Thesis, Paris 1, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA010039/document.
The world we are in : dynamic games relative to climate change. In these games the setting up of a carbon tax has Pigouvian grounds (to take into account the damage resulting of the accumulation of Green House Gas in the atmosphere due to the consumption of fossil energy) but it has also other aims that are strategic. For fossil energy consuming countries, indeed, a carbon tax can be a way to "eat" a part of the producing countries' rent. Then the resulting carbon tax has a Pigouvian part but also a strategic part. The literature developed during the last twenty years in this field is all about non cooperative games between an area of cartelized consuming countries and an area of cartelized producing countries. In the introduction, we lay out the economic framework of this type of games, their analytical framework (differential games) and the theoretical literature. Then the three original games that make up the bulk of the present work are introduced. Each of the three following chapters is devoted to one of these three games. The first one is a non-cooperative game between an area of consuming countries and an area of producing countries but with an upper limit of atmospheric carbon concentration as the main environmental constraint. This new type of constraint changes the classical results of this type of game. The second one is also a non-cooperative game between an area of consuming countries (here the old rich countries) and an area of producing countries but there is also another area of consuming countries (poor and emergent countries) that does not play the game while it sets up the tax resulting of the game. The setting up of such a tax in this area is the consequence of a transfer from the other consuming area. The conclusion is that under specific conditions this area (but also the financing area) wins some welfare in this framework versus a passive behavior in front of the producers. In the last game, there are also two consuming areas but now they play a non-cooperative game between themselves, while the producing area is passive. In consequence there is not a worldwide carbon tax but two regional carbon taxes. However, under some specific conditions, this framework is better for the two consuming areas than the passive attitude in front of the producers. The main conclusion of the three games is that in some circumstances the consuming countries can get some extra welfare from a strategic stance when setting up a carbon tax
Pigeon, Michel, and Michel Pigeon. "Représentations et raisons d'action d'anciens responsables politiques concernant les changements climatiques." Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/28032.
Les grands défis environnementaux, particulièrement celui des changements climatiques, sont beaucoup plus sociaux que techniques, car c’est principalement notre mode de vie qui est en cause. Pouvons-nous effectuer les changements qui s’imposent ? Quelles sont les principales difficultés à vaincre ? Comment les gouvernements doivent-ils agir ? Pour contribuer à répondre à ces questions, nous avons choisi d’interviewer douze anciens ministres responsables des questions environnementales afin de comprendre les raisons de leur action, ainsi que les représentations qui les sous-tendent. Tant en France qu’au Québec, un ministre doit prendre en compte autant les perceptions et les représentations des citoyens que celles des différents groupes avec lesquels il est en contact (groupes de pression, lobbies, médias, élus locaux, etc.), de même que les objectifs du gouvernement et de son parti politique. Sa marge de manoeuvre est étroite, ce qui explique en bonne partie pouquoi les ministres que nous avons interrogés ont tous agi un peu de la même manière. Ils ont tous tenté de faire au mieux pour la protection de l’environnement et le bien-être de leurs concitoyens, mais sans trop bousculer leur mode de vie ni l’ordre établi, tout en étant généralement très conscients que les défis à relever vont demander très bientôt des décisions beaucoup plus difficiles. La sociologie politique explique que les décisions politiques dans nos sociétés démocratiques sont des constructions collectives d’acteurs en interaction, et confirme donc globalement les résultats de notre analyse. Les actions politiques des anciens ministres peuvent également être interprétés à la lumière des trois logiques de l’action décrites par François Dubet. Par ailleurs, dans une vision interactionniste, où la signification des objets est créée par l’interaction, l’action est difficile lorsque cette signification n’est pas la même pour les différents acteurs, et c’est ce que nos avons constaté pour les enjeux environnementaux à long terme qui sont perçus très différemment par les citoyens et les ministres.
The most important environmental challenges, particularly climate change, are much more social than technical, because it is mainly our way of life that is at the heart of the question. Can we make the necessary changes? What are the main difficulties to overcome? How should governments act? To help answer these questions, we chose to interview twelve former ministers responsible for environmental issues in order to understand the reasons for their actions, as well as the representations that underlie them. In both France and Quebec, a minister must take into account the perceptions and representations of citizens and those of the various groups with which he or she is in contact (lobby groups, media, local elected representatives, etc.), as well as the objectives of the government and those of his or her political party. The room for maneuver is narrow, which explains in large part why the ministers we interviewed all acted a little in the same way. They have all tried to do their best to protect the environment and the welfare of their fellow citizens, but without significantly affecting their way of life or the established order, while being generally aware that the challenges ahead will very soon require much more difficult decisions. Political sociology explains that political decisions in our democratic societies are collective constructions of actors in interaction, and thus confirms the results of our analysis. The political actions of former ministers can also be interpreted in the light of the three logics of action described by François Dubet. Moreover, from an interactionist point of view, where the meaning of objects is created by interaction, action is difficult when this meaning is not the same for different actors; this is what we have observed for long-term environmental issues that are perceived very differently by citizens and ministers.
The most important environmental challenges, particularly climate change, are much more social than technical, because it is mainly our way of life that is at the heart of the question. Can we make the necessary changes? What are the main difficulties to overcome? How should governments act? To help answer these questions, we chose to interview twelve former ministers responsible for environmental issues in order to understand the reasons for their actions, as well as the representations that underlie them. In both France and Quebec, a minister must take into account the perceptions and representations of citizens and those of the various groups with which he or she is in contact (lobby groups, media, local elected representatives, etc.), as well as the objectives of the government and those of his or her political party. The room for maneuver is narrow, which explains in large part why the ministers we interviewed all acted a little in the same way. They have all tried to do their best to protect the environment and the welfare of their fellow citizens, but without significantly affecting their way of life or the established order, while being generally aware that the challenges ahead will very soon require much more difficult decisions. Political sociology explains that political decisions in our democratic societies are collective constructions of actors in interaction, and thus confirms the results of our analysis. The political actions of former ministers can also be interpreted in the light of the three logics of action described by François Dubet. Moreover, from an interactionist point of view, where the meaning of objects is created by interaction, action is difficult when this meaning is not the same for different actors; this is what we have observed for long-term environmental issues that are perceived very differently by citizens and ministers.
Avner, Paolo. "Effectiveness and Political Economy of Climate Change Mitigation Policies at the Urban Scale." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris, EHESS, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020EHES0022.
Urbanization is one of the most defining traits of the 21st century with people flocking to cities in massive numbers in developing countries. Given the inertia and path dependence that urban forms display, there is a strong need to get urbanization right today. One key aspect is to ensure low-carbon and sustainable urban futures and avoid carbon-intensive lock-ins, in particular for emissions stemming from urban transport. Technology in the form of more efficient vehicles and alternative fuels currently does not seem to be able to achieve this goal alone. And as urban transport CO2 emissions are partially a by-product of urban forms; land-use, housing and transport policies are increasingly recognized as important levers to curb transport demand and promote soft and collective transport modes which contribute to emission mitigation.However important, reducing CO2 emissions is but one of city policy makers’ objectives: acting on poverty, providing basic services and access to affordable housing to name a few are equally important. So that policies aiming to reduce emissions, that would jeopardize other goals or result in lower welfare levels (mainly through higher housing costs) have low chances of being accepted and implemented. Successful urban-transport climate policies need to be both effective and politically acceptable.Starting from this assessment, this dissertation investigates how a subset of urban, land and transport policies and investments can contribute to curb transport-related CO2 emissions and what are the welfare consequences for households in urban areas. This is done through the development, calibration and application of a micro-economically founded land use – transport model (NEDUM-2D) to real-world urban areas
Pougy, Roberto. "Unconventional oil and natural gas supplies and the mitigation of climate change." Thesis, Paris, EHESS, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017EHES0075.
This thesis in energy and environmental economics extends the geological Hotelling-type extraction-exploration model from Okullo, Reynes and Hofkes (2015) in order to account for the bell-shaped reserve additions that were empirically observed by Laherrère (2003). The proposed model explains them as the result of geological “sweet spots”: premium areas within geological formations where the concentration of hydrocarbons is highest. The proposed theoretical formulation was programmed into the mathematical model LOGIMA – “Long-term Oil and Gas Images” – and calibrated on data covering the seven main unconventional oil and gas plays in the United States. Results indicate the need to learn the location of sweet spots through trial and error drillings leads to schedules of exploratory effort that allow the optimal “de-risking” of exploratory activities. As a result, the optimal response of producers to price shocks becomes contingent on the prevailing level of cumulative discoveries.We apply LOGIMA to investigate the impact, caused by the recent advent of large-scale supplies of unconventional oil and gas, in the United States, on the ongoing efforts to mitigate climate change. We do so by soft coupling long-term scenarios from LOGIMA with the integrated assessment model, IMACLIM-R, a recursive, computable general equilibrium model of integrated global energy, economy and environment systems. We analyze how different price targets, potentially pursued by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), would affect supplies of unconventional oil and gas from the United States. We control this interplay under three climate policy frameworks: business as usual (BAU), nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and 2°C scenario (2DS). The results of the exercise show that, despite having a significant potential to affect global energy markets, unconventional oil and gas supplies would have a limited potential to affect global cumulative greenhouse gas emissions to 2040, as the different effects triggered in different sectors approximately balanced each other out
Le, Treut Gaëlle. "Développements méthodologiques pour la modélisation hybride : conséquences pour l'analyse de la politique climatique dans une économie ouverte (France)." Thesis, Paris Est, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PESC1131/document.
This thesis addresses the issue of data hybridisation for energy-economy-environment modelling and its implications for climate policy in the case of France.The work emphasises the importance of building a hybrid representation of the economy, articulating coherently the economic framework of national accounts and the physical flows, provided by sectoral database (energy balance, industrial statistics). Assuming that it is possible to reduce the uncertainties of data construction, thanks to the equilibrium constraints of flows, this thesis first introduces a method which overcomes the problems of non-coherent nomenclatures, disparate data, or simply missing ones. We show that this hybridisation procedure allows to better describe the weight of both the energy in the French productive system and key sectors of the economy (cement, steel).The hybrid framework then serves to feed the IMACLIM general equilibrium model. The model is used to explore to what extent the hybrid accounts give an opportunity to renew discussion on the introduction of a unilateral carbon tax in France.We first measure the importance of the hybridisation procedure for assessing the macroeconomic impact of climate policy.Then, the sectoral disaggregation allows us to conduct a discussion around central but controversial parameters of modelling: the international trade elasticity and the wage curve interpreted as an indicator of the wage bargaining power. The thesis shows in particular that it is possible, thanks to the progress on the sectoral description, to take into account heterogeneous representation of wage formation between sectors while linking them to their level of exposure to external trade.Finally, the thesis proposes a methodology to evaluate different emission inventories of CO2, such as "consumption-based" emissions, and emissions embodied in imports while relying on the hybrid framework. We thus provide original insights on the drivers of emissions in France which could extend the analyses to other policies such as the adjustment of a carbon tax at the borders
Comte, Adrien. "Coral reefs ecosystem services under global environmental change : interdisciplinary approaches to guide science and action." Thesis, Brest, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018BRES0002/document.
Global environmental change (GEC) in the ocean threatens marine ecosystems and the people who depend on them. A growing scientific effort is attempting to evaluate the impacts of environmental changes on ecosystems and ecosystem services and guide policy-making to respond to this global issue. Focusing on social-ecological systems of coral reefs, this thesis critically reviews the approaches put forward in the literature to understand gaps and to design new methodologies, assessments, and indicators to guide science and policy. Our findings show that a regionally targeted strategy of research should address complexity and provide more realistic projections about the impacts of GEC on coral reefs ecosystems and ecosystem services. We map global-scale indicators to understand where human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats expected in a high-CO2 world. We then analyze how science is responding to the challenge posed by GEC on coral reefs and to identify gaps in research.Finally, we attempt to operationalize an overlooked component of vulnerability assessments, ecological adaptive capacity, to serve as a tool to help assess where local actions can be effective in the context of climate change. This manuscript contributes to theoretical and methodological advances to evaluate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to GEC. It develops interdisciplinary approaches for the study of social-ecological systems and ecosystem services, targeting coral reefs as a case study. Finally, it synthesizes critically the emergence of a scientific field on solutions to GEC for coral reef social-ecological systems
Fortin, Emeric. "Définir les politiques climatiques : rôle des incertitudes et leçons de la modélisation économique." Paris 10, 2004. http://www.theses.fr/2004PA100111.
This thesis presents how economic modelisation could be used to enlighten policymakers about economic issues of climate change. It offers a survey of the main results of modelised works dealing with the costs of the Kyoto protocol implementation as well as those concerning the when flexibility. A focus is made on the uncertainty characterising greenhouse effect issues. The contribution is constituted by the whole methodological recommendations made for a good understanding of the results as well as the robust conclusions than can be drawn from the comparison and the analysis of the different results. Lastly, contribution to the debates on the role of economic inertia in the determination of the optimal temporal path, on the robustness of policy tools in presence of uncertainty are proposed in this work through new theoretical, econometric and applied modelisations
Moreno, Prado Juan Manuel. "Impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la durabilité technico-économique et agroenvironnementale des fermes laitières du Québec." Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/25814.
Gallic, Ewen. "Climate change and agriculture." Thesis, Rennes 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017REN1G007/document.
Global climate is warming, and the effects of climate change are associated with a lot of uncertainty. Not only average temperatures are expected to rise, but also the occurrence of extreme events such as floods or droughts. Agriculture is particularly at risk, due to the importance of weather conditions in production. This thesis therefore aims at investigating the relationship between weather variations and agricultural production, to better assess the potential effects of climate change on agriculture, relying on both theoretical and empirical methods. The first two chapters focus on developing countries and provide two empirical studies based on Indian data at the individual farm level that link climate to agricultural production and profits and to consumption decisions. We find contrasted results, with an overall damaging effect of climate change scenarios on Indian agricultural production and profits, especially for farmers in southern India. Irrigation may however help mitigating the losses, as well as crop mixing, particularly for small farms. The last two chapters consider developed countries. The first step focuses on crop yields in Europe. Under the tested climate scenarios, wheat yields are projected to slightly increase by the end of the 21$^\textrm{st}$ century relative to the observed yields from the past 25 years. These small gains are however accompanied by a lot of regional heterogeneity. For European corn yields, the projections highlight small gains in by the middle of the 21$^\textrm{st}$ century, followed by relatively higher losses in the long run. The second step relies on a general equilibrium approach, and aims at investigating the short-run impacts of weather shocks on business cycles, through their damaging effects on agriculture. Increasing the variance of climate shocks in accordance with forthcoming climate change leads to a sizeable increase in the volatility of key macroeconomic variables, such as production and inflation
Blanchet, Didier. "Conséquences économiques des changements démographiques : modèles et analyses empiriques." Paris, Institut d'études politiques, 1989. http://www.theses.fr/1989IEPP0014.
Economic implications of demographic change are often difficult to assess. We use both theoretical modelling and econometric analysis to evaluate some of them. The first part examines the impact of aggregate population growth on economic growth in various economic growth models, e. G. The malthusian model, the neo-classical growth model and models with endogenous technical progress. Theoretical results are confronted with empirical evidence, historical for today's ldcs. The second part introduces age-structure effects. It discusses how far population aging can outweigh the potential benefits of reduced population growth, with some theoretical results concerning the optimal growth rate of a population. The same theoretical framework is then applied to discussing the impact of population change on pension systems (funded or pay-asyou-go). The last part discusses the impact of population change when markets are in disequilibrium. The case of a single market is illustrated with an econometric analysis of the French housing market. The case of interdependant markets is illustrated by discussing the links between population change and unemployment, under the assumption that both the labour market and the market for goods are out of equilibrium. This allows to derive economic configurations where population growth can have a positive or a negative impact on unemployment
Jourdain, de Muizon Gildas. "Articuler les marchés de permis d'émission avec les autres instruments dans les politiques de lutte contre le changement climatique." Paris 10, 2006. http://www.theses.fr/2006PA100055.
This thesis relates to energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emission reductions instruments in the industry. In this field, the policies are complex. This complexity made of superposition and juxtaposition generates interdependences. In this thesis, we chose to approach the very general problems of the interdependences by three more specific studies which constitute its three parts: a case study of the United Kingdom policy-mix. We mobilize microeconomic theory to evaluate its environmental effectiveness and its cost-efficiency ; the simulation of the interdependence of the European emission trading market using the general computable equilibrium model GTAP-ECAT and political economy model characterizing the impact of the lobbying in a context where two sectors are regulated by two different instruments
Nefzi-Bouzidi, Aida. "Evaluation économique de l'impact du changement climatique sur l'agriculture : étude théorique et application au cas de la Tunisie." Phd thesis, AgroParisTech, 2012. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-01056525.