Дисертації: "Biais de confirmation"

1

Perodaud, Maxime. "Essais sur des biens et services de qualité non vérifiable." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Côte d'Azur, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023COAZ0015.

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Cette thèse étudie les déterminants de la fraude sur les marchés de biens et services de qualité non vérifiable (credence goods). Ces marchés sont variés et répandus au sein de l'économie (services de réparation, conseils financiers, étiquetage alimentaire, services de santé, etc.). Dans ces structures de marché, les consommateurs doivent se fier aux informations fournies par les experts afin de consommer des unités de biens et services. Les experts peuvent alors tenter de profiter de l'asymétrie d'informations en proposant des biens ou services inappropriés ne répondant pas aux besoins des consommateurs. Ce comportement constitue une défaillance de marché qui a des conséquences néfastes pour les consommateurs, entrainant une diminution de leur bien-être.Cette thèse se compose de trois chapitres où nous répondons à deux questions de recherche principales en mobilisant deux méthodologies différentes. Le chapitre 1 présente une expérience en laboratoire dans laquelle nous analysons à la fois les effets de genre et de cadrage sur la fraude dans les marchés de biens et services de qualité non vérifiable. Les résultats suggèrent que le genre et la contextualisation des instructions sont d'une importance fondamentale pour expliquer la dimension de la sous-provision de la fraude, indépendamment de toute incitation financière. Dans les chapitres 2 et 3, nous étudions dans quelle mesure la révélation de l'existence d'un biais de confirmation chez les consommateurs influence les décisions prises par les experts. D'un point de vue théorique, notre analyse suggère que les experts ayant un haut niveau de sensibilité à l'égard des attentes des consommateurs auraient tendance à suivre leurs croyances et par conséquent à leur fournir le niveau de qualité attendu. Contrairement à nos prédictions, les résultats de l'expérience indiquent que l'impact du biais de confirmation dépend de l'état du monde et serait plus susceptible de se manifester dans des environnements où les experts n'ont aucune incitation financière à agir de la sorte.Dans l'ensemble, cette thèse met en évidence le rôle des déterminants sociaux et comportementaux sur les incitations des experts à proposer des biens ou services inappropriés
This thesis analyzes the issues present in credence goods markets regarding the determinants contributing to fraudulent behaviors. Such markets are diverse and can be found easily throughout the economy (repair services, financial advice, food labels and healthcare, etc.). In the context of purchasing credence goods, consumers have to rely on information provided by experts. Experts may take advantage of the information asymmetry by offering inappropriate services that do not align with the consumers' needs. Such markets failures detrimentally affect consumers and leads to a reduction in their welfare.This thesis is composed of three chapters in which we answer two main research questions using two different methodologies. Chapter 1 presents a laboratory experiment where we explore the impact of displaying information regarding the counterpart's gender and framing instructions on outcomes in credence goods markets. The results suggest that both market context and gender are of fundamental importance to explain the under-provision dimension of fraud, regardless of any incentive scheme. In chapters 2 and 3, we investigate how the presence of confirmation bias in consumers affects the decisions made by experts in markets for credence goods. From a theoretical perspective, our analysis suggests that experts with a high level of sensitivity are inclined to follow consumers' beliefs and provide them with the quality they expected. Contrary to these predictions, the results from the experiment suggest that the impact of confirmation bias varies depending on the state of nature and is more likely to emerge in payoff-maximizing environments.Overall, this thesis offers insights into the impact of behavioral and social determinants on experts' incentives to engage in fraudulent behavior

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2

Borthwick, Geoffrey Ludlow. "Confirmation Bias and Related Errors." PDXScholar, 2010. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/128.

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This study attempted to replicate and extend the study of Doherty, Mynatt, Tweney, and Schiavo (1979), which introduced what is here called the Bayesian conditionals selection paradigm. The present study used this paradigm (and a script similar to that used by Doherty et al.) to explore confirmation bias and related errors that can appear in both search and integration in probability revision. Despite selection differences and weak manipulations, this study provided information relevant to four important questions. First, by asking participants to estimate the values of the conditional probabilities they did not learn, this study was able to examine the use of "intuitive conditionals". This study found evidence that participants used intuitive conditionals and that their intuitive conditionals were affected by the size of the actual conditionals. Second, by examining both phases in the same study, this study became the first to look for inter-phase interactions. A strong correlation was found between the use of focal search strategies and focal integration strategies (r=.81, p

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3

Soriano, Flavio de Oliveira. "Overconfidence and confirmation bias: are future managers vulnerable?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13497.

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Decision makers often use ‘rules of thumb’, or heuristics, to help them handling decision situations (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979b). Those cognitive shortcuts are taken by the brain to cope with complexity and time limitation of decisions, by reducing the burden of information processing (Hodgkinson et al, 1999; Newell and Simon, 1972). Although crucial for decision-making, heuristics come at the cost of occasionally sending us off course, that is, make us fall into judgment traps (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Over fifty years of psychological research has shown that heuristics can lead to systematic errors, or biases, in decision-making. This study focuses on two particularly impactful biases to decision-making – the overconfidence and confirmation biases. A specific group – top management school students and recent graduates - were subject to classic experiments to measure their level of susceptibility to those biases. This population is bound to take decision positions at companies, and eventually make decisions that will impact not only their companies but society at large. The results show that this population is strongly biased by overconfidence, but less so to the confirmation bias. No significant relationship between the level of susceptibility to the overconfidence and to the confirmation bias was found.
Tomadores de decisão muitas vezes usam 'regras gerais', ou heurística, para ajudá-los a lidar com situações de tomada de decisão (Kahneman e Tversky, 1979b). Esses atalhos cognitivos são tomados pelo cérebro para lidar com a complexidade e pressão de tempo da tomada de decisão, reduzindo assim a carga de processamento de informação (Hodgkinson et al , 1999; Newell e Simon , 1972). Embora fundamental para a tomada de decisões, a heurística tem o custo de, ocasionalmente, nos tirar do curso, isto é, fazer-nos cair em armadilhas de julgamento (Tversky e Kahneman, 1974). Mais de 50 anos de pesquisa em psicologia tem mostrado que a heurística pode levar a erros sistemáticos, ou vieses, na tomada de decisão. Este estudo se concentra em dois vieses particularmente impactantes para a tomada de decisão - o excesso de confiança e o viés de confirmação. Um grupo específico – estudantes de administração e recém-formados de escolas de negócio internacionalmente renomadas – foi submetido a experimentos clássicos para medir seu nível de suscetibilidade a esses dois vieses. Esta população tende a assumir posições de decisão nas empresas, e, eventualmente, tomar decisões que terão impacto não só nas suas empresas, mas na sociedade em geral. Os resultados mostram que essa população é fortemente influenciada por excesso de confiança, mas nem tanto pelo viés de confirmação. Nenhuma relação significativa entre o excesso de confiança e a suscetibilidade ao viés de confirmação foi encontrada.

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Parmley, Meagan Carleton Herbert James D. "The effects of the confirmation bias on diagnostic decision making /." Philadelphia, Pa. : Drexel University, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1860/1164.

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Rivard, Jillian R. "Confirmation bias in witness interviewing: Can interviewers ignore their preconceptions?" FIU Digital Commons, 2014. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1445.

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Basic research on expectancy effects suggests that investigative interviewers with pre-conceived notions about a crime may negatively influence the interview process in meaningful ways, yet many interviewing protocols recommend that interviewers review all available information prior to conducting their interviews. Previous research suggests that interviewers with no pre-interview knowledge elicit more detailed and accurate accounts than their informed counterparts (Cantlon, et al., 1996; Rivard et al., under review). The current study investigated whether (a) the benefit of blind versus informed interviewing is moderated by cautionary interviewer instructions to avoid suggestive questions and (b) whether any possible effects of pre-interview information extend beyond the immediate context of the forensic interview. Paired participants (N = 584) were assigned randomly either to the role of interviewer or witness. Witnesses viewed a mock crime video and were interviewed one week later by an interviewer who received either correct, incorrect, or no information about the crime event. Half of the interviewers were assigned randomly to receive additional instructions to avoid suggestive questions. All participants returned 1 week after the interview to recall the crime video (for the witness) or the information recalled by the witness during the interview (for the interviewer). All interviews and delayed recall measures were scored for the quantity and accuracy of information reported. Results replicate earlier findings that blind interviewers elicit more information from witnesses, without a decrease in accuracy rate. However instructions to avoid suggestive questions did not moderate the effect of blind versus informed interviewing on witness recall during the interview. Results further demonstrate that the effects of blind versus non-blind interviewing may extend beyond the immediate context of the interview to a later recall attempt. With instructions to avoid suggestive questions, witnesses of blind interviewers were more accurate than witnesses of incorrectly informed interviewers when recalling the event 1 week later. In addition, blind interviewers had more accurate memories for the witnesses’ account of the event during the interview compared to non-blind interviewers.

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Mitchell, Matthew Craig. "Effects of experience and confirmation bias on legal decision making /." Title page, table of contents and abstract only, 2003. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09SSPS/09sspsm6811.pdf.

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7

Wallace, Wayne A. "The Effect of Confirmation Bias in Criminal Investigative Decision Making." Thesis, Walden University, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3687475.

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Confirmation bias occurs when a person believes in or searches for evidence to support his or her favored theory while ignoring or excusing disconfirmatory evidence and is disinclined to change his or her belief once he or she arrives at a conclusion. The purpose of this quantitative study was to examine whether emotionally charged evidence and evidence presentation order could influence an investigator's belief in a suspect's guilt. The study included 166 sworn police officers (basic training recruits, patrol officers, and criminal investigators) who completed online surveys in response to criminal vignettes across different scenarios to record their measure of guilt belief. Analysis of variance was used to assess the relationship between the 3 independent variables: duty assignment (recruit, patrol, investigator), scenario condition (child and adult sexual assault), and evidence presentation order (sequential, simultaneous, reverse sequential). The dependent variable was confirmation bias (Likert-scaled 0–10 guilt judgment). According to the study results, confirmation bias was least evident in criminal investigators with more experience and training, and both emotion and evidence presentation order can influence guilt judgment. The findings generalize to criminal investigators and attest to the importance of working to include and exclude suspects and to withhold judgment until all available evidence is analyzed. Investigators benefit from this study and through their improved decision making, society benefits as well. This study will contribute to the need for professional dialogue concerning objective fact finding by criminal investigators and avoiding incidents of wrongful conviction.

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Schweiger, Stefan [Verfasser]. "Confirmation Bias in Information Search with Social Tags / Stefan Schweiger." Tübingen : Universitätsbibliothek Tübingen, 2021. http://d-nb.info/1225740312/34.

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9

Burchell, Brendan. "Confirmation bias and the testing of hypotheses about other people." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1986. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/4040/.

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Critical reviews of the literatures on self-fulfilling prophecies and self-confirming hypotheses uncovered several weaknesses in key works on those topics. In particular two important flaws were revealed. Hypotheses and expectations were confused and confounded and the most important aspect of these effects in person perception, changes in the perceiver's representation of the target, were ignored. Instead these works either made inferences about the perceivers' judgments from other individuals with different perspectives, or claimed to have demonstrated the effect of manipulating the hypothesis whereas their results were probably attributable to manipulating expectancies instead. It was argued that both of these types of inferences are invalid, and reanalyses of data from empirical works showed that the claims were not justified. A series of experiments was conducted in an attempt to find unequivocal evidence of self-confirming hypotheses. Numerous reasons were found as to why the phenomenon was highly unlikely to occur in social interaction. For instance, the asking of biased questions was found not to occur when perceivers generated their own questions to ask instead of selecting from a list given to them. In addition, subjects modified the questions they asked during the course of social interactions in such a way as to eliminate any possible bias in information search. Even when questions searching for confirmatory evidence were asked there was little evidence that interviewers' judgements were biased in favour of confirming their hypotheses. By contrast strong evidence was found for self-confirming hypotheses when subjects used information from their own memories to test hypotheses about aquaintances. These findings were discussed in the light of other paradigms within social psychology. Reasons why social cognition has, at times, so underestimated human rationality were considered and several conclusions were made including the need for greater caution in attempting to emulate and understand social processes in a laboratory setting.

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Wallace, Wayne A. "The Effect of Confirmation Bias in Criminal Investigative Decision Making." ScholarWorks, 2016. http://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/hodgkinson/22.

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Confirmation bias occurs when a person believes in or searches for evidence to support his or her favored theory while ignoring or excusing disconfirmatory evidence and is disinclined to change his or her belief once he or she arrives at a conclusion. The purpose of this quantitative study was to examine whether emotionally charged evidence and evidence presentation order could influence an investigator's belief in a suspect's guilt. The study included 166 sworn police officers (basic training recruits, patrol officers, and criminal investigators) who completed online surveys in response to criminal vignettes across different scenarios to record their measure of guilt belief. Analysis of variance was used to assess the relationship between the 3 independent variables: duty assignment (recruit, patrol, investigator), scenario condition (child and adult sexual assault), and evidence presentation order (sequential, simultaneous, reverse sequential). The dependent variable was confirmation bias (Likert-scaled 0–10 guilt judgment). According to the study results, confirmation bias was least evident in criminal investigators with more experience and training, and both emotion and evidence presentation order can influence guilt judgment. The findings generalize to criminal investigators and attest to the importance of working to include and exclude suspects and to withhold judgment until all available evidence is analyzed. Investigators benefit from this study and through their improved decision making, society benefits as well. This study will contribute to the need for professional dialogue concerning objective fact finding by criminal investigators and avoiding incidents of wrongful conviction.

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Gould, James, Dewayne Moore, Nancy J. Karlin, Diane B. Gaede, Joseph T. Walker, and Andy R. Dotterweich. "Measuring Serious Leisure in Chess: Model Confirmation and Method Bias." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2011. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/3802.

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The serious leisure inventory and measure (SLIM) was tested with 348 chess players to confirm the factors, assess the effects of method bias, and propose a set of the best-performing items for the 18 factor SLIM. The 54-item SLIM demonstrated acceptable fit and reliability values. The effect of method bias was evidenced in the sample and explained one-third of the variance. Inspection of factor loadings, when controlling for method bias, yielded one best-performing item per factor. Findings indicate method bias continues to be problematic for self-report measures such as the SLIM.

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Wallace, Wayne A. "The Effect of Confirmation Bias on Criminal Investigative Decision Making." ScholarWorks, 2015. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/407.

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Confirmation bias occurs when a person believes in or searches for evidence to support his or her favored theory while ignoring or excusing disconfirmatory evidence and is disinclined to change his or her belief once he or she arrives at a conclusion. The purpose of this quantitative study was to examine whether emotionally charged evidence and evidence presentation order could influence an investigator's belief in a suspect's guilt. The study included 166 sworn police officers (basic training recruits, patrol officers, and criminal investigators) who completed online surveys in response to criminal vignettes across different scenarios to record their measure of guilt belief. Analysis of variance was used to assess the relationship between the 3 independent variables: duty assignment (recruit, patrol, investigator), scenario condition (child and adult sexual assault), and evidence presentation order (sequential, simultaneous, reverse sequential). The dependent variable was confirmation bias (Likert-scaled 0-10 guilt judgment). According to the study results, confirmation bias was least evident in criminal investigators with more experience and training, and both emotion and evidence presentation order can influence guilt judgment. The findings generalize to criminal investigators and attest to the importance of working to include and exclude suspects and to withhold judgment until all available evidence is analyzed. Investigators benefit from this study and through their improved decision making, society benefits as well. This study will contribute to the need for professional dialogue concerning objective fact finding by criminal investigators and avoiding incidents of wrongful conviction.

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Salman, I. (Iflaah). "The effects of confirmation bias and time pressure in software testing." Doctoral thesis, Oulun yliopisto, 2019. http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9789526224442.

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Abstract Background: Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for evidence that confirms a person’s preconceptions. Confirmation bias among software testers is their tendency to validate the correct functioning of the program rather than testing it to reveal errors. Psychology literature suggests that time pressure may promote confirmation bias because time pressure impedes analytical processing of the task at hand. Time pressure is perceived negatively for its effects in software engineering (SE), therefore, its effect on confirmation bias may exacerbate software quality. Objective: We aim to examine confirmation bias among software testers. Additionally, we examine the effect of time pressure on confirmation bias and how time pressure affects the testers’ perception of the performance. We also question what other antecedents to confirmation bias exist in software testing and how they lead to it. Method: We first examined the state of the art research on cognitive biases in SE using systematic mapping. Then, we empirically examined the feasibility of using students in further experiments. An experiment with 42 students (novice professionals) investigated the manifestation of confirmation bias and whether time pressure promotes it. Another experiment with 87 novice professionals examined the perception of the performance of software testers under time pressure. A grounded theory study based on the interview-data of 12 practitioners explored other antecedents to confirmation bias in software testing and how they lead to it. Results: Time pressure emerged as a major antecedent to confirmation bias in the grounded theory. Testers prefer to validate the correct functioning of the program under time pressure. However, time pressure could not significantly promote confirmation bias among testers. Software testers significantly manifest confirmation bias irrespective of time pressure. The perception of performance is also sustained irrespective of time pressure. Conclusion: Testers should develop self-awareness of confirmation bias and improve their perception of performance to improve their actual testing. In the industry, automated testing may alleviate confirmation bias due to time pressure by rapidly executing the test suites
Tiivistelmä Tausta: Vahvistusharha tarkoittaa taipumusta hakea ennakko-odotuksia vahvistavaa todistusaineistoa. Ohjelmistotestaajien vahvistusharha tarkoittaa taipumusta varmistaa ohjelmiston oikea toiminta mieluummin kuin hakea siitä virheitä. Psykologinen tutkimus esittää, että aikataulupaine voi lisätä vahvistusharhaa heikentämällä työn analyyttista tarkastelua. Aikataulupainetta pidetään ohjelmistotekniikan soveltamiseen kielteisesti vaikuttavana asiana, minkä johdosta sen vaikutus vahvistusharhaan voi heikentää ohjelmiston laatua. Tavoite: Tarkastelimme ohjelmistotestaajien vahvistusharhaa tutkimalla aikataulupaineen vaikutusta vahvistusharhaan ja testaajien käsitykseen testauksen tehokkuudesta. Lisäksi kysymme, mitkä muut tekijät johtavat ohjelmistotestauksen vahvistusharhaan, ja millä tavoin. Menetelmä: Ensiksi tarkastelimme ohjelmistotekniikan kognitiivisten harhojen viimeisintä tutkimusta systemaattista kirjallisuuskartoituksella. Sitten tutkimme kokeellisesti, miten yliopisto-opiskelijat soveltuvat käytettäväksi tutkimusjoukkona vahvistusharhan kokeellisessa tutkimuksessa. Kokeellinen tutkimus, johon osallistui 42 opiskelijaa (aloittelevaa ammattilaista), tarkasteli vahvistusharhan lisääntymistä aikataulupaineen vaikutuksesta. Toinen kokeellinen tutkimus, johon osallistui 87 aloittelevaa ammattilaista, tarkasteli ohjelmistotestaajien käsitystä testauksen tehokkuudesta aikataulupaineen alla. Kahdeltatoista ammattilaiselta haastattelemalla kerätystä tutkimusaineistosta tarkasteltiin ankkuroidun teorian menetelmällä muiden mahdollisten tekijöiden vaikutusta vahvistusharhaan. Tulokset: Ankkuroidussa teoriassa aikataulupaine osoittautui merkittäväksi vahvistusharhan tekijäksi. Ammattimaiset ohjelmistotestaajat haluavat mieluummin validoida ohjelmiston oikean toiminnan aikataulupaineessa. Toisessa kokeellisessa tutkimuksessa aikataulupaine ei kuitenkaan lisännyt merkittävästi testaajien vahvistusharhaa, vaan testaajien vahvistusharha ilmeni merkittävästi aikataulupaineista riippumatta. Myös käsitys työn tehokkuudesta säilyi riippumatta aikataulupaineesta. Johtopäätös: Ohjelmistotestaajien on syytä kehittää tietoisuuttaan vahvistusharhasta ja parantaa käsitystään työn tehokkuudesta parantaakseen testaustyötä. Teollisuudessa automaattinen testaus voi lieventää aikataulupaineen aiheuttamaa vahvistusharhaa nopeuttamalla testisarjoja

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Mora, Morrison Sebastian, and Marcus Thulin. "Overconfidence och confirmation bias på kryptovalutamarknaden : En explorativ studie om privata kryptoinvesterares syn på psykologiska bias." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-149284.

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BAKGRUND: Kryptovalutor saknar de makroekonomiska faktorer som ligger till grund för prissättningen av vanliga valutor. Istället visar forskning att spekulativ handel och trendsökande handlare är vanligt förekommande och att det bidrar till ökad volatilitet på marknaden. Forskning visar också att overconfidence och confirmation bias bidrar med såväl ökad volatilitet som påverkan på investeringars resultat. Kunskapen om psykologiska bias och hanteringen av dem kan få stora konsekvenser på resultatet men hur privata kryptoinvesterare ser på dem är fortfarande ett outforskat ämne. SYFTE: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka och analysera hur väl privatsparare på kryptovalutamarknaden känner till overconfidence och confirmation bias, vilka erfarenheter de har och vilka åtgärder de gör för att hantera dessa bias. GENOMFÖRANDE: Studien har genomförts genom kvalitativa intervjuer med åtta privata kryptoinvesterare. Intervjuerna har utgått från en intervjumall konstruerad för att på djupet kunna ta del av respondenternas kunskaper och erfarenheter. Intervjun har även inkluderat ett test för overconfidence för att möjliggöra för respondenternas egna reflektioner kring sin egen eventuella overconfidence. SLUTSATS: Studien visar att den teoretiska kunskapen om overconfidence och confirmation bias är låg men att den erfarenhetsbaserade kunskapen är hög. Vad gäller hanteringen av risk och psykologiska bias ligger inte respondenternas strategier i linje med forskningen men marknadens säregna egenskaper möjliggör för ekonomisk vinning i utnyttjandet av andra investerares bias.

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Whittlestone, Jess. "The importance of making assumptions : why confirmation is not necessarily a bias." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2017. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/95233/.

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The idea of a `confirmation bias - that people reason in ways that lead them to irrationally confirm whatever it is they already believe - is one of the most widely accepted psychological findings. In this thesis, I argue that the evidence for confirmation bias is much weaker than is often supposed, and that this raises some challenging questions about what it means for beliefs to influence reasoning in an irrational way. I suggest that the literature on confirmation bias faces three challenges. First, the term `confirmation bias has been used to refer to multiple different things by different people, creating a literature of disparate findings that are not well unified. Second, many of the tendencies commonly referred to as confirmation bias are either not robust, or do not lead to confirmation under all circumstances. Third, most findings of `confirmation bias do not do enough to demonstrate a genuine bias or irrationality, and do not adequately address the complex associated normative issues. I discuss the link between confirmation bias and the broader concept of `open-mindedness', suggesting that existing research on both these topics fails to recognise the necessity and benefits of making assumptions as we navigate our lives. Instead of making claims like\people fall prey to a confirmation bias" or \people should be more open-minded", I suggest that research should focus on understanding how people navigate trade-offs - between the benefits of having firm beliefs and of making assumptions, and the benefits of being `detached' from prior beliefs and able to change one's mind.

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Ballion, Tatiana. "THE EFFECT OF GENDER, CONFIRMATION BIAS, AND METACOGNITIVE SELF ASSESSMENT OVER VARYING LEVELS OF EXPERTISE IN A VISUOSPATIAL TA." Master's thesis, University of Central Florida, 2005. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/3658.

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It has been shown that there exists a relationship between levels of metacognitive ability and estimation of personal ability for largely verbally-based tasks, where those with lessened facility for the task tend toward overestimation of their aptitude relative to their peers (Kruger and Dunning, 1999). This study examines this effect for a task of mechanical ability for volunteer participants (n = 69), where participants were given an abbreviated form of the Bennett Mechanical Comprehension Test (BMCT) to establish a level of competency. Following the administration of the BMCT, the participants were then asked to speculate on the hypothetical grade for their performance, as well as the relationship between their hypothetical grade, and the grades of others. Participants then "tutored" a hypothetical student on the solution to one of the problems found on the BMCT, and their explanations were coded for degree of bias towards confirmation versus disconfirmation that was utilized in the problem solving. It was found that females' basic ability had a greater range than males', and females on the high and low ends of competency made greater use of confirming strategies in their problem solving. This is indicative of the overall observed interaction effect between Gender, Perceived Relative Competence, and Actual Competence observed in this study.
M.A.
Office of Liberal and Interdisciplinary Studies
Arts and Sciences
Liberal Studies

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17

Tully, Phillip John. "The influence of perceived moral character and deservingness on confirmation bias in legal decision making /." Title page, table of contents and abstract only, 2004. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09HS/09hst923.pdf.

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18

Tarnoff, Jay. "An Investigation of the Role of Confirmation Bias in the Evaluation of Informal Reasoning Fallacies." Diss., Temple University Libraries, 2010. http://cdm16002.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/ref/collection/p245801coll10/id/93269.

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School Psychology
Ph.D.
A total of 168 undergraduate students at Temple University provided a measure of their prior beliefs and measures of attitude strength on three topics and then attempted to identify and explain informal reasoning fallacies based on the same topics. Contrary to the hypothesized predictions, prior beliefs and measures of attitude strength did not have a significant effect on participants' ability to accept informal reasoning fallacies consistent with their beliefs based on that topic, although agreement with the topic demonstrated modest effects. Furthermore, this research demonstrated that participants have significant difficulty identifying and explaining informal logical fallacies. Ability to identify and explain one informal fallacy is not a significant predictor of the ability to identify and explain other fallacies. Also, ability to identify and explain one fallacy in a topic is a poor predictor of the ability to identify and explain that fallacy in another topic. This research indicates that formal fallacy syllogism scores were the best predictor of the ability to identify and explain informal logical fallacies, and that agreement with the topic and willingness to act on those beliefs demonstrated modest effects. Consistent with studies on dual-processing theory, in informal logic the individual is forced to examine the information presented in the statement and the structure of the statement and then relate it to their prior opinions and attitudes about the topic, and therefore, the acceptance of the fallacy is a matter of motivated reasoning bias or self-deception instead of an error in analytical reasoning. Informal reasoning fallacies represented an error in judgment, or a misunderstanding of the validity of an argument. Practical implications for school psychologists, limitations of this research, and directions for future research were discussed.
Temple University--Theses

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19

Del, Vicario Michela. "The role of confirmation bias in the emergence of echo chambers: a data-driven approach." Thesis, IMT Alti Studi Lucca, 2016. http://e-theses.imtlucca.it/199/1/DelVicario_phdthesis.pdf.

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The thesis focuses on the modeling of information diffusion and opinion dynamics on online social networks, using a datadriven approach accounting for the presence of social contagion and cognitive effects such as confirmation bias, cognitive dissonance, and backfire effect. We a) analyze data from a sample of 1.2M of users on the Italian Facebook pages, focused of scientific and conspiracy contents, by means of quantitative methods, statistical analysis, and sentiment analysis; b) develop a data-driven percolation model of signed edges to mimic the information spreading and a theoretical model of opinions formation. We provide evidences that the diffusion of information, either substantiated or not, is promoted by confirmation bias and homophily. This process in turn generates and fosters the formation of homogeneous polarized clusters, the echo chambers. Users’ emotional behavior seems to be affected by their engagement within the community. An higher involvement in the echo chamber, resolves in a more negative emotional state. Lastly, we develop a model of opinions formation that takes into account both confirmation bias and social influence as triggering factors for the group polarization on social networks. Our model is able to reproduce the dynamics we observed on Facebook.

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20

Cheah, Isaac. "Rediscovering Australian brands : the roles of categorization theory and confirmation bias on country of ownership cues." Thesis, Curtin University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/855.

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The study examines the effect of country of ownership cues, economic nationalistic and consumer ethnocentric tendencies with regards to product judgments and purchase intentions of Australian wines with multi country affiliations. To test the research model, a specific scale to measure and conceptualise economic nationalistic tendencies (CENTSCALE) was developed and a new construct “consumer willingness to buy hybrid products” was created.

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21

Montague, Norma R. "The Effects of Directional Audit Guidance and Estimation Uncertainty on Auditor Confirmation Bias and Professional Skepticism When Evaluating Fair Value Estimates." Scholar Commons, 2010. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/3539.

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In this study, I examine the effects of audit guidance and estimation uncertainty on auditors’ confirmation bias and professional skepticism when evaluating fair value estimates. Fair value estimation is becoming more prevalent in financial reporting frameworks, and regulators warn that fair value estimation presents higher risk of material misstatement when greater judgment in estimation is involved. In addition recent evidence from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) indicates that some auditors may not be exercising sufficient professional skepticism when performing audit procedures in higher risk areas of the audit. Martin et al. (2006) suggest that it may be the audit standards themselves that orient auditors toward biased evaluation of management’s estimates, suggesting that such directional audit guidance leads to confirmation bias. Further, it is possible that because of auditors’ intolerance for ambiguity, that a greater degree of estimation uncertainty exacerbates the bias. Thus, I examine whether directional audit guidance (e.g., support management’s estimate, and oppose management’s estimate) versus non-directional audit guidance (e.g., develop own estimate) affects auditors’ confirmation bias differentially under varying degrees of uncertainty (e.g., low vs. high), and the extent to which this bias increases or decreases professional skepticism. The results show that auditors exhibit the greatest confirmation bias when they are directed to oppose versus support management’s estimate or generate their own estimate, and that this bias increases the degree of professional skepticism exercised by auditors. Further, the greatest extent of confirmation bias resulted when auditors were directed to oppose management’s estimate and estimation uncertainty was high. This study sheds light on the effects of directional versus non-directional audit guidance in the presence of uncertainty and should be informative to standard setters and practitioners as they press forward in issuing new audit guidance related to the evaluation of fair value estimates.

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22

Reich, Darcy A. "Behavioral confirmation of generalized future-event expectancies : the moderating roles of perceivers' awareness of bias and targets' expectancies /." The Ohio State University, 2000. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1488202678773808.

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23

LaBranche, Kayla J. "The Influence of Information on Public Support for Solitary Confinement: a Test of Belief Updating and Confirmation Bias." PDXScholar, 2018. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/4483.

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There is limited research measuring public opinion about the correctional practice of solitary confinement (SC). Given that public opinion can influence policies, it is important to determine whether or not one's beliefs can be updated upon receiving information about the use and effect of SC. Prior research indicates that public opinion is malleable, and thus, may be susceptible to modification. Though, people may be more willing to update their beliefs when the information they receive confirms their existing beliefs (i.e., confirmation bias). This study used an experimental design in which participants were asked to provide their opinions on a series of statements designed to measure their support for SC. Participants were randomly assigned to one of two treatment conditions that provided differing messages about the use of SC through brief, informational videos. Participants were either told that SC is a necessary tool to maintain order within prisons, or that SC is harmful to those who experience it. Following the intervention, participants' support for SC was re-measured and their change in score was calculated. Analyses indicated that participants who received information stating that SC is harmful decreased their support for the practice, while those who received information stating it was necessary increased their support for its use. To test for confirmation bias, participants were presented a survey instrument designed to measure their existing support for punishment. The findings indicate that participants had greater belief changes when presented with disconfirming information. These effects were more pronounced when examining moderating demographic variables. The research and policy implications of this study's findings are discussed.

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Corbin, Nicholas A. "Thinking Makes It So: The Search for an Authentic Self In Hamlet." University of Toledo Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=uthonors1386941487.

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Luethi, Anja P. "Effects of Negative Online Word-of-Mouth on Consumer Evaluations of an Underdog Brand." ScholarWorks@UNO, 2016. http://scholarworks.uno.edu/honors_theses/81.

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Research on underdogs has suggested that consumers feel sympathy for and a desire to support the underdog. However, it is unclear how their evaluations of the underdog will change if they receive negative information about it. The current research aims to explore the role of negative word-of-mouth of the underdog, compared to the top dog, in consumers’ brand attitude, brand value, and purchase intention. Specifically, drawing on two streams of research, two competing hypotheses are proposed and tested. An experiment was conducted with online consumer panel members. Consistent with confirmation bias and familiarity principle, the results supported a hypothesis that an underdog brand suffers more than a top dog brand from negative online word-of-mouth. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings along with future research directions are discussed.

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26

Scherer, Aaron. "The impact of political cues on information seeking and the need for cognitive closure." Diss., University of Iowa, 2014. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/4747.

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Previous research has demonstrated that the political ideology one adopts is strongly influenced by three social-cognitive motives: motives to reduce uncertainty, manage threats, and experience solidarity. The goal of the current studies was to examine the possibility that this relationship might also work in reverse, with political ideology influencing social-cognitive motives. To this end, four studies examined the impact of conservative cues on need for cognitive closure (NFCC), a measure of motivation to reduce uncertainty, and tested between three accounts of the impact of conservative cues on selective exposure (SE) to confirming information, the primary measure of NFCC in the current studies. Studies 1-3 examined how exposure to the American flag, a conservative cue, impacted SE (Studies 1 and 3) and the accessibility of NFCC (Study 2). Study 4 examined how exposure to partisan news sources impacted SE. Exposure to conservative cues may increase SE by making political group membership salient, resulting in the defensive engagement in SE to maintain a positive view of one's political in-group (social identity account), or by priming the political stereotype that conservatives are high in NFCC, which individuals (stereotype priming account) or only conservatives (active self-concept account) assimilate towards. The four studies produced mixed results, but overall, were most supportive of the stereotype priming account. Specifically, there was evidence that exposure to conservative cues increased SE (Studies 1 and 3) and made NFCC more accessible (Study 2). Additionally, these results were not moderated by political ideology, as predicted by the active self-concept account, and there was no evidence of increased affiliation with one's political in-group, as predicted by the social identity account. In Study 4, exposure to the conservative news source reduced SE compared to exposure to the moderate and liberal news sources, results inconsistent with all three accounts. Theoretical and practical implications, as well the complexities of the current studies' results, are discussed.

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27

POTHIRATTANACHAIKUL, SUPPANUT. "A Study on Understanding and Encouraging Alternative Information Search." Kyoto University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/259073.

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28

Kronkvist, Ola. "Om sanningen skall fram : polisförhör med misstänkta för grova brott." Doctoral thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Polisutbildningen (PU), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-23787.

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This thesis has explored the context of police interviews with suspects of serious crimes. Focus group studies, a case study and additional interviews have shown several aspects of information flow, decision making, interviewing tactics, human rights and tacit knowledge as these interviews are planned, performed and evaluated. The informants, homicide investigators, describe their work as an information generating and information evaluating process. They apply a series of methods, e. g. different forms of tactics in the use of investigative information during the police interviews. Based on the informants’ description and the case study, their methods seem to have research evidence in general, where such is available. The informants specifically stress the important role of planning and evaluation. The investigative process generates a vast amount of situations where decision making is needed. In these, the bases for the decisions are mainly the information flow of the investigation, which tends to be obscure and in constant change. The investigators’ decision making is thereby exposed to the risk of confirmation bias. The informants express an ambition to work objectively and to presume the suspects’ innocence. However, this generates a psychological conflict, which might affect the human rights of the suspect in negative ways. The informants describe several ways to handle this conflict. The informants describe that they have several concerns when making decisions. These can be categorized as legal, organizational and tactical concerns. Taken together, legal rule conflicts and the organizational ambition to lead the investigators in a target oriented way using quantitative measures, result in strong incitements for investigations to be finalized when they are good enough, rather than when they are good. The informants describe their profession as one where it is possible to develop expertise and where tacit knowledge plays an important role. When previous research on tacit knowledge is combined with the interview results, there seems to be a level between the tacit and the explicit knowledge. I have called this low-key knowledge. This low-key knowledge can be verbalized in the proper context in communication among those initiated in the subject at hand. The low-key knowledge also seems to risk being over-voiced in certain contexts.

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29

Dreger, Britta [Verfasser]. "Diagnose: Confirmation bias. Wie die anfängliche Überzeugtheit von einer klinisch-psychologischen Prüfhypothese, die Berufserfahrung und das Fachwissen die Validität klinischer Diagnosen beeinflussen / Britta Dreger." Kiel : Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1026453801/34.

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30

Eriksson, Joakim, and Anastasiya Afanaseva. "Fake news : Kan korrekt information motverka lögner?" Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-354708.

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Sveriges regering och SÄPO har identifierat fake news som ett hot mot demokratin. I denna studie undersöker vi om fake news påverkar individer, trots att de vid samma tillfälle erhåller korrekt information inom ämnet. Detta gjordes genom en enkätundersökning på studenter vid Uppsala universitet. Vi fann att erhållandet av korrekt information inte är tillräckligt för att motverka effekten av att exponeras för falsk information. De studenter som fick läsa en mening med falsk information var 15 procentenheter mer sannolika att svara att de anser att staten lägger för mycket resurser på invandringen jämfört med kontrollgruppen. Resultatet tyder på att politiker, organisationer och privatpersoner kan dra nytta av att sprida fake news, att de kan göra så anonymt, och att faktagranskning ensamt inte kan stävja problemet med fake news.
The Swedish government and the Swedish Security Service have identified fake news as a threat to democracy. In this study, we investigate if fake news affect individuals, even though they receive correct information regarding the subject simultaneously. This was accomplished through handing out a survey to students at Uppsala University. We found that obtaining correct information is insufficient to counteract the effects of being exposed to fake news. The students who read a sentence with false information were 15 percentage points more likely to answer that they believe that the Swedish government allocates too much resources towards immigration compared to the control group. The result indicate that politicians, organizations and individuals can take advantage of spreading fake news, that they can do so anonymously, and that fact checking alone cannot solve the problem of fake news.

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Nordström, Fanny, and Konstantin Åström. "Har kultur en inverkan på investeringsbeteende? : En kvantitativ jämförandestudie mellan svenska och spanska investerare." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Företagsekonomi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-38799.

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Cultural Finance är ett relativt nytt forskningsområde som belyser att kultur kan vara en nyckelfaktor till att förklara individers investeringsbeteende. Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka om kultur kan vara en förklarande faktor till individers investeringsbeteende. En jämförandestudie genomfördes där svenska (n=124) och spanska (n=109) investerare undersöktes. Studien baserades på kvantitativa enkäter som publicerades i forum med inriktning på investeringar. Resultatet analyserades med hjälp av ett Mann Whitney U test i SPSS version 1.0.0.1275 för att testa om det går att urskilja skillnader i investeringsbeteende mellan Sverige och Spanien. Resultatet visade på att det gick att urskilja skillnader i investeringsbeteende i risktagande och individers motvilja att förlora pengar och att dessa skillnader kan bero på kultur.
Cultural Finance is a relatively new research area that highlights that culture can be a critical factor in explaining the investment behavior of individuals. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether culture can be an explanatory factor for individuals' investment behavior. A comparative study was conducted in which Swedish (n = 124) and Spanish (n = 109) investors were surveyed. The study was based on quantitative questionnaires published in forums focusing on investments. The results were analyzed using a Mann Whitney U test in SPSS version 1.0.0.1275 to test whether differences in investment behavior between Sweden and Spain can be discerned. The results showed that it was possible to discern differences in investment behavior in risk-taking and individuals' reluctance to lose money and that these differences may be due to culture.

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Mothes, Cornelia. "Biased Objectivity: An Experiment on Information Preferences of Journalists and Citizens." Sage, 2017. https://tud.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A35513.

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The present study aims to reconcile conflicting evidence from previous research on the role of objectivity in journalists’ and citizens’ information behaviors. Drawing on news quality frameworks and confirmation bias research, the article proposes a model of “biased objectivity” that was tested by a quasi-experiment with 430 journalists and 432 citizens in Germany. Results show that both perceived objectivity value (news quality perspective) and attitude consistency of a message (confirmation bias perspective) enhanced the informational value of a message, with objectivity value mediating the effect of attitude consistency on informational value perceptions (“biased objectivity” perspective). Journalistic professionalism did not moderate this relationship.

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Ghosh, Chowdhury Satrajit. "Understanding Mis- and Dis-Information Consumption in a Polarized Society – Analyzing Selective Evaluation, Subjective Perception of Opinion Leaders and Effects of Heuristic Cues in Post-decision." Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou162891154529201.

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Ghosh, Chowdhury Satrajit. "Understanding Mis- and Dis-Information Consumption in a Polarized Society – Analyzing Selective Evaluation, Subjective Perception of Opinion Leaders and Effects of Heuristic Cues in Post-decision." Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2021. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou162891154529201.

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Lindahl, Jesper. "Papegojornas ekokammare : En argumentationsanalys av kommentarer på Reddit." Thesis, Högskolan för lärande och kommunikation, Högskolan i Jönköping, HLK, Medie- och kommunikationsvetenskap, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-38760.

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Den här studien undersöker hur diskussioner på ekokammare ser ut i sociala medier. Mer specifikt undersöks kommentarsfälten i två olika länkar från den sociala länkaggregatorn Reddit och underforumet /r/Politics. Undersökningen görs i syfte att se hur diskussioner tar form på Reddit för att ge en klarare bild av ekokammare som fenomen på internet. Studiens teoretiska grund ligger i teorierna om selektiv exponering och partisk assimilering, samt i en teoretisering av hur grupper formas på de sociala medierna Twitter och Reddit. Studien använder sig av både en kvantitativ innehållsanalys och en kvalitativ textanalys, vilka främst grundar sig i argumentationsanalysen. Innehållsanalysen används först för att jämföra /r/Politics användares ställningstagande till de länkar som de kommenterar på och sedan för att möjliggöra en korrelationsanalys av arguments styrka och dess användargivna poäng på Reddit. Textanalysen görs med hjälp av begrepp från argumentationsanalysen och används för att sätta in studiens material i fem olika teman. Det mest framträdande temat får namnet Kommentarer av papegojor och beskriver kommentarer som konstrueras likadant som tidigare kommentarer utan försök till att föra något nytt till diskussionen. Överlag visar studiens resultat att responsen ser likadan ut för båda länkarna och att en stor majoritet av kommentarerna är på samma sida i argumentet. Resultatet visar också att argumentens styrka är oberoende av om en kommentar får en positiv respons eller inte.
This study explores how discussions in echo chambers take form on social media. More specifically, the study explores the comment section of two different links on the social news-aggregator website Reddit and the sub-forum /r/Politics. The purpose of the aforementioned exploration is to give a clearer picture of echo chambers as a phenomena on the Internet. The study’s theoretical background is based on selective exposure and biased assimilation theory, as well as a theorization of how groups form on Twitter and Reddit. The study uses a quantitative content analysis and a qualitative text analysis, which are both based on argumentation theory. The content analysis is first used to compare the viewpoint of /r/Politics users with the subject of the links they comment on, and then to make a correlation analysis of the strength of arguments and the arguments’ user-given points on Reddit. Last a qualitative text analysis is done using concepts from argumentation theory, which allows for the observation of five different themes. The most prominent of these themes was given the name Comments by parrots and describes comments that are constructed in a similar fashion to older comments, without an attempt to bring something new to the discussion. Overall, the study’s result shows that the response to the two links is similar, and that both have an overwhelming majority of comments supporting one side. The result also shows that a strong argument does not necessarily mean that the comment will get a positive response.

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Björkvall, Emil, and Tim Engqvist. "Faktorer som påverkar beslutsfattande hos svenska riskkapitalbolag : En kvalitativ flerfallstudie om likheter och kontraster av investeringsutfall." Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik, konst och samhälle, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-85098.

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Sverige är beroende av nystartade företag och entreprenörer för att finansiera landets välstånd. Riskkapitalbolag innehar ofta en betydande roll för de nya företagen när verksamheten ska utvecklas eller expandera. Bolagen assisterar de nya företagen med ett brett spektrum av nyckelaktiviteter som finansiering, operativt arbete, strategi eller kontaktnät. Tidigare studier visar att riskkapitalfinansierade bolag både växer snabbare och lyckas oftare. Samtidigt visar forskningen att riskkapitalbolag präglas av stort risktagande och övermod vid sina investeringar. Emellertid finns mindre djupgående forskning om vilka konkreta faktorer och omständigheter som resulterar i de olika utfallen. Syftet med examensarbetet är att skapa en bättre förståelse för specifika faktorer som påverkar svenska riskkapitalbolags beslutsfattande och resulterar i särskilda utfall. Undersökningen ämnar att betona likheter och skillnader i riskhanteringen av investeringsval mellan riskkapitalbolagen där utfallen antingen resulterar i nytta eller förlust för bolagen. För att uppfylla syftet har institutionella teorin, kognitiva bias och moderna portföljteorin aktualiserats. Undersökningen genomfördes genom intervjuer med beslutsfattare från åtta stycken konfidentiella riskkapitalbolag. Samtliga bolag kodades om för att säkerställa konfidentialitet i syfte att erhålla djupare inblickar i deras investeringsutfall. De erhållna resultaten visar på att framförallt kognitiva bias men även den institutionella teorin förklarade de olika investeringsutfallen väl. Riskkapitalbolagen präglades av stark övermod vid sina misslyckade investeringar och medelstark vid sina lyckade. Riskkapitalbolagen var också starkt påverkade från både extern tryck av samhället men även av interna riktlinjer vid sina investeringar. Flera branschmönster har också kartlagts vid både lyckade och misslyckade investeringar däribland syndikering av kapital, efterfrågan av serieentreprenörer och att det enligt de själva vanligtvis är entreprenören eller marknaden som är anledningen till att investeringen inte lyckas. Resultatet antyder också att en av de största svårigheterna för riskkapitalbolagen är att bedöma entreprenörernas möjligheter att utveckla företaget. Den mest tänkbara anledningen till att riskkapitalbolagen har starka tendenser till övermod är för att det krävs för att lyckas i branschen. Inget nystartat bolag är riskfritt och för att våga investera i branschen behövs stark tilltro till sin egen förmåga.
Sweden is dependent upon start-ups and entrepreneurs in order to successfully finance domestic prosperity. Venture capital (VC) companies often play a significant role for new companies when the business is to be developed or expanded. The VC companies support the new companies with a wide range of key features. Such as financing, operational work, strategy or contact networks. Previous studies show that VC-financed companies both grow faster and succeed more often than non VC-backed companies. At the same time, research shows that VC-companies are characterized by great risk-taking and audaciousness in their investments. However, there is less in-depth research on what explicit factors and circumstances result in the successful and unsuccessful investments. The purpose of the study is to create a better understanding of similarities and differences in different investment outcomes and highlight the patterns of their investments. Institutional theory, cognitive bias and modern portfolio theory are the theories used in this study. The survey was conducted through eight semi-structured qualitative interviews with different decision makers from VC-companies in Sweden. In order to gain a deeper understanding of their investment outcomes all company names were re-coded. The obtained results showed that cognitive biases was the primary theory of explanation. However, the institutional theory could also explain the different investment outcomes. The VC-companies were characterized by strong audaciousness with their failed investments and medium audaciousness with the successful. The requirement of success in the VC-industry explains why the companies have tendencies to be audacious in their decision making. A strong confidence is needed when investing in start-up companies since these companies imply a great risk. External societal pressure and internal guidelines strongly influence the investments of the VC. The study identified several industry patterns for both successful and unsuccessful investments. The patterns include syndication of capital and demand for serial entrepreneurs. The study also showed a pattern of venture capitalists explaining their unsuccessful investment due to issues with the entrepreneur or the market. The results suggest that one of the greatest difficulties for VC-companies is to assess the ability of the entrepreneur to develop the company.

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37

SCHAEFER, LINDSAY M. "CULTURE AND POSTDECISIONAL CONFIRMATION BIAS." Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1974/6016.

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The present research explored cross-cultural differences in postdecisional confirmation bias. I hypothesized that, following a personal decision—one that entails consequences for the decision maker only, Euro-Canadians would be more likely to seek out confirmatory information than would Japanese, whereas following an interpersonal decision—one that entails consequences for those closest to the decision maker, Japanese would be more likely to do so than Euro-Canadians. In Study 1, Euro-Canadians and Japanese university students were randomly assigned to either the self or friend condition. Participants in the self and friend condition selected a movie for which they or their friend would ostensibly receive a free pass to see in theatres, respectively. After selecting a movie, participants were presented with a list of 12 movie reviews that either confirmed or disconfirmed their choice. Participants then indicated which of the reviews they wanted to read further. Study 2 employed the same paradigm as did Study 1 and also included a measure of participants’ information processing goals. For Study 1, the results of a series of one-sample t tests revealed that Euro-Canadians in the self condition exhibited confirmation bias as well as did those in the friend condition, albeit this latter trend was not significant. In contrast, Japanese in both conditions showed no preference for confirmatory or disconfirmatory information. For Study 2, Japanese continued to exhibit a balanced search. However, Euro-Canadians in the friend condition preferred confirmatory information, whereas Euro-Canadians in the self condition exhibited a slight, non-significant preference for disconfirmatory information. Regarding participants’ information processing goals, those in the friend condition were more concerned with affirming and convincing others of the correctness of their choice than were those in the self condition. Also, Euro-Canadians indicated that they were motivated to be accurate more than did Japanese. The present research indicates that Euro-Canadians and Japanese differ in terms of the decisions that they seek to confirm (albeit not in the predicted direction). Reasons for such discrepant findings and limits of the present research are discussed.
Thesis (Master, Psychology) -- Queen's University, 2010-09-02 12:51:18.396

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38

HUNG, LIN-YA, and 洪琳雅. "Gender and Investment Behavioral Bias: Overconfidence, Illusion of Control, Confirmation Bias, and Regret Aversion." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/bcxf6n.

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碩士
世新大學
財務金融學研究所(含碩專班)
104
Individual investors in Taiwan contribute over 50 percent of the trading volume while some evidence indicates that most of them suffered losses in the stock market. This could be explained by behavioral biases from the individual investors. The gender difference could be one of the contributing factors to impact the behavioral bias. The purpose of this research is to investigate the relations between gender and behavioral biases, overconfidence, illusion of control, confirmation bias, and regret aversion. The empirical results show the strong relationship between gender and behavior biases. Males tend to exhibit stronger overconfidence, illusion of control, and confirmation bias than those in the females. On the other hand, females prefer to prevent losses and are more careful due to the regret aversion. Regarding to the investment behavior, male investors trade more frequently and have longer investment experience than those in the females.

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39

Silva, Marta Vasconcelos Barreto Resina da. "Confirmation bias in acquisition of information based on political affiliation." Master's thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/111525.

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This paper studies the impact of confirmation bias on the choice between biased sources of political information in a pre-election period. A sample of 204 Portuguese respondents was used, through a survey regarding their political identity and relating it to each one’s choice of information sources, as a voter and as a single decision-maker. Significant differences in behaviour were found according to one’s political identity. Evidence was found for some significant confirmation-seeking behaviour among right-wing participants, but some hypotheses concerning expressive voting and the effects of various factors on confirmation bias weren’t confirmed.

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40

Huang, Hsieh-Hong, and 黃恊弘. "Understanding the Role of Computer-Mediated Counter-Argument in Countering Confirmation Bias." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/28808114084792347715.

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博士
國立中正大學
資訊管理所
97
There are several cognitive biases in human decision-making processes. One such bias is confirmation bias which people tend to search or to interpret information in the way of fitting their current beliefs. It leads to defective decision making and inhibits learning. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether confirmation bias exists while using computer-supported decision making tool and whether it can be eliminated though providing computer-mediated counter-argument as de-bias function. The effect of confirmation bias and the moderating role of computer-mediated counter-argument on the above relationship were hypothesized. The proposed research model was examined through an elaborate laboratory experimental design. The results show that by providing computer-mediated counter-argument, the system facilitated users improving their decision making process and satisfaction, and also contributed to the effect of learning. Implications follow these results are offered.

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41

Mileva, Kalina. "The effect of a debiasing intervention on confirmation bias regarding Covid-19 vaccination." Master's thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/131491.

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This work examines whether a debiasing intervention using a debiasing tool would prove effective in tackling confirmation bias regarding Covid-19 vaccination. The experiment was conducted through a questionnaire which included measures of attitudes, different texts for the debiasing intervention and the control group, as well as two measures of the effectiveness of the intervention. The results showed that the intervention was ineffective and there was no observed change in the level of confirmation bias among the participants.

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42

"Investigating the Relationship Between Visual Confirmation Bias and the Low-Prevalence Effect in Visual Search." Doctoral diss., 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.51632.

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abstract: Previous research from Rajsic et al. (2015, 2017) suggests that a visual form of confirmation bias arises during visual search for simple stimuli, under certain conditions, wherein people are biased to seek stimuli matching an initial cue color even when this strategy is not optimal. Furthermore, recent research from our lab suggests that varying the prevalence of cue-colored targets does not attenuate the visual confirmation bias, although people still fail to detect rare targets regardless of whether they match the initial cue (Walenchok et al. under review). The present investigation examines the boundary conditions of the visual confirmation bias under conditions of equal, low, and high cued-target frequency. Across experiments, I found that: (1) People are strongly susceptible to the low-prevalence effect, often failing to detect rare targets regardless of whether they match the cue (Wolfe et al., 2005). (2) However, they are still biased to seek cue-colored stimuli, even when such targets are rare. (3) Regardless of target prevalence, people employ strategies when search is made sufficiently burdensome with distributed items and large search sets. These results further support previous findings that the low-prevalence effect arises from a failure to perceive rare items (Hout et al., 2015), while visual confirmation bias is a bias of attentional guidance (Rajsic et al., 2015, 2017).
Dissertation/Thesis
Doctoral Dissertation Psychology 2018

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43

Chia, I.-Hsiang, and 賈逸翔. "The Mitigation of Confirmation Bias in Health Information processing: a Comparison between Popular and Expert Opinions." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/q7gc45.

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碩士
國立臺灣大學
圖書資訊學研究所
105
Confirmation bias, the preferential seeking of confirmatory information, can become an obstacle for the disseminate of valid health information online and lead to biased decision. Following previous findings, preference-inconsistent recommendation can be used to overcome this bias. We conducted an experiment to study the impact of expert system and popularity system on mitigating confirmation bias, the confirmation bias was measured in the selection phase, the evaluation phase and the final decision phases. 78 participants aged 40-70 were recruited. Participants were informed that they would participate in a health information experiment involving two cancer screening debates. Participants were assigned in such a way that each participant would see two fairly different interfaces for the two tasks. We found that the evaluation bias and the final decision were more persistent than the selection bias. The comparison between the two systems revealed that expert system has a better mitigation effect than the popularity system in the selection bias. Furthermore, it was observed that expert system would have better mitigation effect on high-involvement issue. We also found strong gender difference in our experiment. Future study which aims to investigate the mitigation effect of different techniques should take gender as a confounding variable and choose health issues which are more comparable.

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44

Wu, Pei-Min, and 吳佩旻. "A Study of Confirmation Bias on the Processing of Online Book Review: The Role of Involvement." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/gxbqd9.

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Анотація:

碩士
國立臺灣大學
圖書資訊學研究所
105
In recent years, the prevalence of online consumer reviews and their influence on consumers’ judgment have attracted great interests from both marketers and academia. Previous research indicated that consumers tends to search for evidences which confirm an existing belief, rather than for those which disconfirm it, a widely observed phenomenon called “confirmation bias”. In addition, it was also found that consumers’ involvement with the product could be an important moderator in the persuasive effect of online reviews. This study set out to examine the confirmation bias in the context of reading online book reviews of mystery fiction, also the moderating role of individual’s involvement with mystery fiction. A total of 62 participants took part in a 2 (initial impression: positive vs. negative) × 2 (review valence: positive vs. negative) within-subjects experiment. Through a mock book review site, participants were presented with the basic bibliographic information about the seven mystery titles, including the cover, author, book series, publisher, language, format and the summary. After the first impression was formed, they were asked to rate each books, and then ranked the seven titles, from the most to the least favored. The top two and the two lowest ranked titles were chosen for the second stage of the experiment. Next, they were asked to read the positive and negative reviews about the titles which were chosen. After finishing the reading, they were asked to answer the questions for each review. At last, they would rate the chosen titles again. It was shown that confirmation bias did exist in the context of reading online book reviews of mystery fiction. Readers were more likely to infer that the comments supporting their existing position were motivated by a desire to inform other buyers about the book, and believed that these comments were more likely to be based on the reviewer’s true experiences. Therefore, readers found these comments much more persuasive as compared to the ones disconfirming their existing position. With regard to the intensity of confirmation bias, when the positive impression about the book was formed, reading the positive reviews subsequently, the confirmation bias would be much more stronger as compared to situations in which negative impression has been formed, and then reading the negative ones. Furthermore, readers'' involvement with mystery fiction moderated the effect of the interaction between initial impression and review valence on the intensity of confirmation bias. As the degree of involvement increased, the intensity of confirmation bias toward the mystery fiction were also enhanced. Overall, the existence of confirmation bias was found in the context of reading online book reviews of mystery fiction. Moreover, the intensity of confirmation bias were enhanced due to the moderation effect of involvement. Accordingly, readers’ confirmation bias should be considered in the future design of online decision aids.

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45

Liao, Yen-jung, and 廖彥絨. "The Effect of the Hindsight Bias on Financial Statement Users - An Example of Accounts Receivable Confirmation." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/86162284508634827571.

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碩士
國立雲林科技大學
會計系研究所
100
The hindsight bias refers to the phenomenon that, upon learning the outcome of an event, people tend to inflate what could have been predicted in foresight. The present research employed a questionnaire to examine the effect of the hindsight bias and sampling proportion on evaluating audit quality. A 3 (event occurrence: positive/ negative/ no outcome) ×3 (sampling proportion: 15%/ 50%) mixed factorial design was employed in the present study. The main finding of the present study are as follow：(1) Concerning with the responsibilities of auditors, participants exhibited hindsight bias. (2) Concerning with proportion, there was no hindsight bias but influence of sampling proportion. Consequently, evaluating auditors on performing the audit, there was no effect for financial statement users; nevertheless, ascribing the blame to auditors, they tune the probability of event occurrence accordingly. Thus, comparing Liao’s (2008) finding, that our results show hindsight bias effects solely among the responsibilities of auditors, support the conclusion.

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46

"The Effects of Confirmation Bias and Susceptibility to Deception on an Individual’s Choice to Share Information." Master's thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.53828.

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abstract: As deception in cyberspace becomes more dynamic, research in this area should also take a dynamic approach to battling deception and false information. Research has previously shown that people are no better than chance at detecting deception. Deceptive information in cyberspace, specifically on social media, is not exempt from this pitfall. Current practices in social media rely on the users to detect false information and use appropriate discretion when deciding to share information online. This is ineffective and will predicatively end with users being unable to discern true from false information at all, as deceptive information becomes more difficult to distinguish from true information. To proactively combat inaccurate and deceptive information on social media, research must be conducted to understand not only the interaction effects of false content and user characteristics, but user behavior that stems from this interaction as well. This study investigated the effects of confirmation bias and susceptibility to deception on an individual’s choice to share information, specifically to understand how these factors relate to the sharing of false controversial information.
Dissertation/Thesis
Masters Thesis Human Systems Engineering 2019

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47

Zeferino, Fábio Rafael Morais. "Investor heuristics measurement and return predictability - a behavioural finance study." Master's thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/122620.

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This paper presents literature-based investor heuristic measurement variables to explain and predict excess returns in the U.S market. These variables are part of a behavioural model that aims to measure the anchoring, availability, confirmation, overconfidence, and representativeness heuristics. Empirical evidence, based on the NASDAQ100 index, suggests that the behavioural model is able to explain excess returns and that it can be incorporated in the Fama-French Three-Factor Model (hybrid model)to enhance the traditional models’ explanatory capabilities of regular stock returns. Lastly ,this paper presents several in-and out-of-sample forecasts that support the return predictability of the behavioural and hybrid models.

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48

Hurych, Jan. "Psychologické aspekty procesu hodnocení důkazů." Master's thesis, 2018. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-374463.

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Psychological aspects of evidence evaluation: Abstract The diploma thesis focuses on the topic of judging and decision-making within the process of evidence evaluation. Its main goal is to identify and describe cognitive illusions which can have a negative impact on the process of evidence evaluation. The mutual position of psychology and law in also considered within introductory chapters. The decision making of the judges is initially described by theoretical models. Three cognitive illusions that are essential for evidence evaluation are described in the following chapter. It is anchoring heuristic, hindsight bias and confirmation bias. Eventually risks, which these cognitive illusions represent for evidence evaluation, are described and forms of countermeasures are discussed. One chapter of the thesis is devoted to the description of ego depletion, which could pose another limit for the process of evidence evaluation. Ego depletion describes decline of self-control in cases which demand conscious effort. The judges are probably in a risk of ego depletion. This phenomenon can lead to higher vulnerability towards cognitive illusions and stronger tendency to maintain status quo. Possible countermeasures are described and discussed on one hand against anchoring, hindsight and confirmation bias and on the...

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49

Hallihan, Gregory M. "Mitigating Cognitive and Neural Biases in Conceptual Design." Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/33234.

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Conceptual design is a series of complex cognitive processing tasks and research seeking to further understand design cognition will benefit by considering literature from the field of psychology. This thesis presents two research projects, which sought to understand and mitigate design biases in conceptual design through the application of theories from biological and cognitive psychology. The first of these puts forward a novel model of design creativity based on connectionist theory and a neurological phenomenon known as long-term potentiation. This model is applied to provide new insights into design fixation and develop interventions to assist designers overcome fixation. The second project seeks to establish that cognitive heuristics and biases predictably influence design cognition. Two studies are discussed that examined the role of confirmation bias in design. The first establishes that confirmation bias is present during concept generation; the second demonstrates that decision matrices can mitigate confirmation bias in concept evaluation.

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50

Cabrera, Victoria Marrujo. "Cognitive Science in technology." Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/ETD-UT-2010-12-2098.

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Cognitive Science is an interdisciplinary field that ties together the curricula of liberal arts and technical fields of study. However, it is de-emphasized in technical undergraduate studies such as Engineering. Cognitive Science is essentially the study of the human mind and how humans process information. It is the study of human responses, thinking, and perception. Human behavior and a person’s reaction are undetermined, but it can be better understood. Although human behavior and interaction is a routine part of life, engineers are taught to decipher code and not how to decipher a human’s behavior. Cognitive Science affects all aspects in the work environment. Organizational practices can be improved by understanding common biases and motivational theories in people. Having a cognitive awareness of typical human behavior will help to promote improved communication and positive reactions from people in the workplace. Human behavior is inevitable in any field but more crucial in technical fields especially when there is lack of communication or ambiguous guidelines and definitions. In technical fields, miscommunication or ambiguity can be a matter of life or death. In many situations, miscommunication can drive ambiguity. Although some people are happy with flexible guidelines, others seek to have well defined expectations. How do people react in situations surrounding miscommunication or ambiguity? In both situations, some people create opportunities and others become a hindrance. Processes and procedures can be put in place to alleviate ambiguous situations, but human performance and psychological factors still play a role as well. Human error can result from psychological factors, but the environment can be improved to limit those factors. As with any situation, mishaps are still prone to happen. Although human error is preventable in most cases, it’s never completely unavoidable. Human error continues to be a deep-rooted cause that can lead to negative outcomes. As stated by Alexander Pope, “to err is human…” (Moncur). This paper will explore underlying human behavior in daily activities. By understanding common biases and motivational theories driving human behavior, one can address negative behavior in a technical field in order to create opportunities.
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Дисертації з теми "Biais de confirmation"

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