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Книги з теми "ARIMAX model"

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Автор: Grafiati

Опубліковано: 30 травня 2022

Оновлено: 31 травня 2022

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1

Meyler, Aidan. Forecasting Irish inflation using ARIMA models. Dublin: Central Bank of Ireland, Economic Analysis, Research and Publications Department, 1998.

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2

Fritzer, Friedrich. Forecasting Austrian HICP and its components using VAR and ARIMA models. Wien: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, 2002.

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3

Yŏ, Un-bang. Sŭngpŏp kyejŏl ARIMA mohyŏng ŭi kujo sikpyŏl pangbŏp. Sŏul Tʻŭkpyŏlsi: Hang̕uk Kaebal Yŏng̕uwŏn, 1985.

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4

Subagyo. Memutus rantai kemiskinan perempuan: Melalui model utilisasi kelompok arisan dan simpan pinjam sebagai pemberdayaan kelompok perempuan miskin. Malang: Intimedia, 2013.

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5

Reid, Abigail-Kate, and Nick Allum. Learn About Time Series ARIMA Models in Stata With Data From the USDA Feed Grains Database (1876–2015). 1 Oliver's Yard, 55 City Road, London EC1Y 1SP United Kingdom: SAGE Publications, Ltd., 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781529710281.

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6

Reid, Abigail-Kate, and Nick Allum. Learn About Time Series ARIMA Models in Stata With Data From the NOAA Global Climate at a Glance (1910–2015). 1 Oliver's Yard, 55 City Road, London EC1Y 1SP United Kingdom: SAGE Publications, Ltd., 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781529710380.

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7

McCleary, Richard, David McDowall, and Bradley J. Bartos. ARIMA Algebra. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190661557.003.0002.

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The goal of Chapter 2 is to derive the properties of common processes and, based on these properties, to develop a general scheme for classifying processes. Stationary processes includes white noise, moving average (MA), and autoregressive (AR) processes. MA and AR models can approximate mixed ARMA models. A lag or backshift operator is used to solve ARIMA models for time series observations or random shocks. Covariance functions are derived for each of the common processes.Maximum likelihood estimates are introduced for the purposes of estimating autoregressive and moving average parameters.

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8

McCleary, Richard, David McDowall, and Bradley J. Bartos. Forecasting. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190661557.003.0004.

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Chapter 4 downplays forecasting’s role in the design and analysis of time series experiments and emphasizes its potential abuses. While the “best” ARIMA model will outperform other forecasting models in the short and medium-run, long-horizon ARIMA forecasts grow increasingly inaccurate with diminished utility to the forecaster. Although the principles of forecasting help provide deeper insight into the nature of ARIMA models and modeling, the forecasts themselves are ordinarily of limited practical value. Forecasting can provide useful guidance to analysts choosing between two competing univariate models. While forecasting accuracy is only one of many criteria that might be considered, other things being equal, it is fair to say that a statistically adequate model of a process should provide reasonable forecasts of the future. Forecast accuracy depends on a host of factors, many of which lie outside the grasp of model adequacy. More important, forecast accuracy has no universally accepted metric.

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9

McCleary, Richard, David McDowall, and Bradley J. Bartos. Noise Modeling. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190661557.003.0003.

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Chapter 3 introduces the Box-Jenkins AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) noise modeling strategy. The strategy begins with a test of the Normality assumption using a Kolomogov-Smirnov (KS) statistic. Non-Normal time series are transformed with a Box-Cox procedure is applied. A tentative ARIMA noise model is then identified from a sample AutoCorrelation function (ACF). If the sample ACF identifies a nonstationary model, the time series is differenced. Integer orders p and q of the underlying autoregressive and moving average structures are then identified from the ACF and partial autocorrelation function (PACF). Parameters of the tentative ARIMA noise model are estimated with maximum likelihood methods. If the estimates lie within the stationary-invertible bounds and are statistically significant, the residuals of the tentative model are diagnosed to determine whether the model’s residuals are not different than white noise. If the tentative model’s residuals satisfy this assumption, the statistically adequate model is accepted. Otherwise, the identification-estimation-diagnosis ARIMA noise model-building strategy continues iteratively until it yields a statistically adequate model. The Box-Jenkins ARIMA noise modeling strategy is illustrated with detailed analyses of twelve time series. The example analyses include non-Normal time series, stationary white noise, autoregressive and moving average time series, nonstationary time series, and seasonal time series. The time series models built in Chapter 3 are re-introduced in later chapters. Chapter 3 concludes with a discussion and demonstration of auxiliary modeling procedures that are not part of the Box-Jenkins strategy. These auxiliary procedures include the use of information criteria to compare models, unit root tests of stationarity, and co-integration.

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10

Rathmanner, Steven Clifford. Image texture generation using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. 1987.

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11

Pevehouse, Jon, and Jason D. Brozek. Time‐Series Analysis. Edited by Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady, and David Collier. Oxford University Press, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.003.0019.

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This article discusses time-series methods such as simple time-series regressions, ARIMA models, vector autoregression (VAR) models, and unit root and error correction models (ECM). It specifically presents a brief history of time-series analysis before moving to a review of the basic time-series model. It then describes the stationary models in univariate and multivariate analyses. The nonstationary models of each type are addressed. In addition, various issues regarding the analysis of time series including data aggregation and temporal stability are considered. Before concluding, the article briefly reports the time-series techniques in the context of panel data. In general, time-series analysis can help improve the understanding of the political world.

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12

McCleary, Richard, David McDowall, and Bradley Bartos. Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190661557.001.0001.

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Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments develops a comprehensive set of models and methods for drawing causal inferences from time series. Example analyses of social, behavioral, and biomedical time series illustrate a general strategy for building AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) impact models. The classic Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building strategy is supplemented with recent auxiliary tests for transformation, differencing, and model selection. The validity of causal inferences is approached from two complementary directions. The four-validity system of Cook and Campbell relies on ruling out discrete threats to statistical conclusion, internal, construct, and external validity. The Rubin system causal model relies on the identification of counterfactual time series. The two approaches to causal validity are shown to be complementary and are illustrated with a construction of a synthetic control time series. Example analyses make optimal use of graphical illustrations. Mathematical methods used in the example analyses are explicated in technical appendices, including expectation algebra, sequences and series, maximum likelihood, Box-Cox transformation analyses and probability.

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13

McDowall, David, Richard McCleary, and Bradley J. Bartos. Interrupted Time Series Analysis. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190943943.001.0001.

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Interrupted Time Series Analysis develops a comprehensive set of models and methods for drawing causal inferences from time series. Example analyses of social, behavioural, and biomedical time series illustrate a general strategy for building AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) impact models. The classic Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building strategy is supplemented with recent auxiliary tests for transformation, differencing and model selection. New developments, including Bayesian hypothesis testing and synthetic control group designs are described and their prospects for widespread adoption are discussed. Example analyses make optimal use of graphical illustrations. Mathematical methods used in the example analyses are explicated assuming only exposure to an introductory statistics course. Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments (DATSE) and other appropriate authorities are cited for formal proofs. Forty completed example analyses are used to demonstrate the implications of model properties. The example analyses are suitable for use as problem sets for classrooms, workshops, and short-courses.

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14

Yunhwa Rao, Nancy. An Examination of the Aria Song “Shilin Jita”. University of Illinois Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.5406/illinois/9780252040566.003.0006.

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Cantonese opera aria was a primary form of musical utterance in Chinatowns in the 1920s. They were heard not only at theaters but also as aria song on phonograph records at laundries, canneries, or stores, or through life performance at clubhouses of family associations. As an introduction to this sound world, this chapter examines a popular aria from that decade: Li Xuefang’s “Shilin Jita” from Madame White Snake. The lyrics are comprised of couplets of ten-syllable verses, and the aria is a fanxian erhuang type. Focusing on the transcription of a historical recording, the chapter delves into analyses of the relationship between text and music, the phrase structures, mode, ornamentation styles, rhythmic scheme, etc. Two versions of the same arias are also compared. A discussion of vocal sliding tones at the end of the chapter points to additional consideration of the singing style typical of Cantonese opera singing. While this chapter focuses on a single aria from a large body of repertoire, it nevertheless introduces important aspects of the musical characteristics and aesthetics of Cantonese opera in the 1920s.

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15

Peramalan jangka pendek harga sayuran di daerah konsumen; aplikasi model autoregressive integrated moving average (arima): Laporan penelitian. Bandung: Lembaga Penelitian, Universitas Padjadjaran, 2000.

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16

McCleary, Richard, David McDowall, and Bradley J. Bartos. Intervention Modeling. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190661557.003.0005.

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The general AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model can be written as the sum of noise and exogenous components. If an exogenous impact is trivially small, the noise component can be identified with the conventional modeling strategy. If the impact is nontrivial or unknown, the sample AutoCorrelation Function (ACF) will be distorted in unknown ways. Although this problem can be solved most simply when the outcome of interest time series is long and well-behaved, these time series are unfortunately uncommon. The preferred alternative requires that the structure of the intervention is known, allowing the noise function to be identified from the residualized time series. Although few substantive theories specify the “true” structure of the intervention, most specify the dichotomous onset and duration of an impact. Chapter 5 describes this strategy for building an ARIMA intervention model and demonstrates its application to example interventions with abrupt and permanent, gradually accruing, gradually decaying, and complex impacts.

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17

Time Series ARIMA Models and the USDA Feed Grains Database (1876–2015): U.S. Oats Yield per Acre. 1 Oliver’s Yard, 55 City Road, London EC1Y 1SP United Kingdom: SAGE Publications, Ltd., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781473995598.

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18

Time Series ARIMA Models and the NOAA Global Climate at a Glance (1910–2015): Average Land Temperatures in Asia. 1 Oliver’s Yard, 55 City Road, London EC1Y 1SP United Kingdom: SAGE Publications, Ltd., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781473995321.

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19

Denis, Philippe. Case Study: Memory Work with Children Affected by HIV/AIDS in South Africa. Edited by Donald A. Ritchie. Oxford University Press, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195339550.013.0011.

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This article focuses on working with children affected by HIV/AIDS in South Arica. In the early years of the AIDS epidemic, relief organizations focused their efforts on the material needs of children, but their psychological and emotional needs are no less important. Recognizing this, the Sinomlando Centre for Oral History and Memory Work in Africa, a research and community development center located at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, in Pietermaritzburg South Africa, has pioneered a model of psychosocial intervention for children in grief—particularly but not exclusively in the context of HIV/AIDS. This model uses the methodology of oral history in a novel manner, combined with other techniques such as life story work and narrative therapy. During the early years of the project, the model followed for the family visits was the oral history interview. A discussion on caregiver as the narrator and skills required in memory work especially in these cases concludes this article.

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20

Ghosh, Subir. Asymptotics, Nonparametrics, and Time Series (Statistics: a Series of Textbooks and Monogrphs). CRC, 1999.

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21

Ivanovitch, Roman. The Brilliant Style. Edited by Danuta Mirka. Oxford University Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199841578.013.0013.

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The brilliant style, described loosely by Leonard Ratner as rapid passages for virtuoso display, has been a mainstay of modern topic theory, often invoked in conjunction with the singing style to account for the basic contrastive mechanism of the classical style. This chapter explores some contextual bases for the topic, suggesting that eighteenth-century linguistic usage can offer useful nuance and proposing a topical home in the genre of the concerto. Illustrations relate to the concerto, aria, symphony, and quartet, and examine both keyboard and string virtuosity. At the heart of the brilliant style is a set of propensities for public and theatrical modes, tied to a sense of occasion; it can highlight tensions between composer and performer, and relates directly to our constructions of the active “persona” in a composition or performance.

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22

Sepúlveda, Jovanny. La Investigación en Derecho y el diálogo entre saberes. CUA - Medellin, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.52441/der201804.

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Los avances científicos que se han producido en la última década sitúan a la ciencia en una excelente posición para tratar enfermedades anteriormente carentes de respuesta médica alguna, y, además, han abierto un abanico de posibilidades terapéuticas realmente sorprendentes. Sin embargo, este intenso avance científico también está generando conflictos sociales y jurídicos en torno a diferentes temas como Los Mecanismos alternativos de solución de conflictos y los delitos de lesa humanidad, entre otros. En este sentido, es necesario reconocer que estos temas abordados, son muy sensibles y que se les debe tomar con seriedad y haciendo énfasis en los desarrollos que se pueden dar haciendo uso de la investigación para su conocimiento y práctica. Es por ello, que el derecho va de la mano con la investigación, considerando que el reto del derecho es ser complementario con la práctica investigativa, en la medida de lo posible, siendo dinámico, es decir, que se pueda cambiar según las necesidades, ya que en este caso se trata de una materia muy cambiante (la investigación). Es por ello, que se realiza el presente texto, como forma de dar a conocer diferentes investigaciones desarrolladas desde el ámbito del derecho, investigaciones como: 1) Las emociones y la tragedia griega como imitación de acciones nobles de Luis Fernando Garcés Giraldo, Conrado Giraldo Zuluaga, José Antonio Ortega Carrillo, Jovany Sepúlveda Aguirre, Dany Esteban Gallego Quiceno, Camilo Andrés Echeverri Gutiérrez, Albert Corredor Gómez y Eulalia García-Marín, investigación importante para entender como las emociones intervienen en la acción humana, 2) Los Mecanismos Alternativos de Solución de Conflictos como instrumentos para la construcción de una cultura de paz en el posconflicto de Adriana Patricia Arboleda López, J. Eduardo Murillo Bocanegra y Manuel José Gómez Restrepo, investigación de gran relevancia en la actualidad para entender cómo se dialoga sin darle uno al sistema judicial, 3) El derecho y los fractales de Manuel Antonio Ballesteros Romero y Edwin Osorio Rodríguez, texto en el que los investigadores desarrollan una interesante relación entre el Derecho como disciplina y como sistema desde la visión de fractales, 4) Derechos culturales en el abordaje de la pobreza. Acerca de la necesaria Inclusión de la cultura en el marco del desarrollo sostenible de María Analía Valera, texto muy pertinente que relaciona dos temas cruciales dentro de las ciencias sociales como lo son los derechos culturales y la pobreza, 5) Impactos actuales en la configuración del Estado, los ciudadanos y el pacto social. El reclamo de nuevos espacios geopolíticos de Walter Mauricio Montaño Arias, William Esteban Grisales Cardona, Diego Alejandro, Correa Correa y Juan Fernando Correa Wachter, escrito que hace una investigación documental acerca de la teoría política y su relación con los aspectos geopolíticos predominantes, 6) Los delitos de lesa humanidad en la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos, frente al modelo de justicia transicional colombiano, como último escrito, se trata de una investigación actual para Colombia, en la que se relacionan de manera detallada aspectos fundamentales acerca de los delitos de lesa humanidad. Estos textos en conjunto, se evidencian como acercamientos desde la investigación hacia el Derecho, que le van a permitir al lector tener una mirada crítica acerca de la forma en cómo se están comportando estos temas en el mundo y cómo estos pueden ayudar a abrir nuevas rutas para el Derecho en los tópicos que se abordan.

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