Дисертації з теми "Arid and Semi-Arid Climate"

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In the semi-arid climate of southern AZ, evaporative cooling systems are commonly used and very effective for cooling homes (swamp coolers), outdoor areas (misters), and for greenhouses used for commercial and horticultural plant production (pad-and-fan, high-pressure-fog). The purpose of this brochure is to educate users about strategies they can employ to save water and improve the performance of evaporative cooling systems. Principles of operation, a list of advantages and disadvantages, and a comparison of common systems is also included, to help users decide the best system for them.

Meadows are critical in arid and semi-arid Argentinean Patagonia because of their importance for regional biodiversity. Despite this, little information on the spatial distribution of meadows is available and no analysis of the potential effect of climate change on meadows has been performed, which hampers conservation planning. In this study, I modeled the spatial distribution of meadows and investigated how climate change may affect the current distribution of meadows in arid and semiarid Patagonia by 2050. In addition, I investigated conservation status and areas of desertification vulnerability of those areas predicted to contain meadows. I used high-resolution imagery available in Google Earth software to visually estimate presence and absence of meadows. To model current and future distribution of meadows I used these observations and different socio-environmental predictor variables. I implemented generalized linear, additive, boosting, and random forest models, as the basis for a mean ensemble technique. I predicted future distribution of meadows using four different general circulation models and the A2 SERES scenario. The final ensemble model was an accurate representation of the current distribution of meadows in Patagonia and indicates they are severely under-represented within protected areas. I determined that overall meadow abundance is going to decrease by 2050 given the changes in climate. However, there were two contrasting trends: severe reduction of meadows in northwest Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego Island, and an expansion of suitable areas for meadows in the south and a small section in the northwest. This first regional map of meadow distribution across Argentinean Patagonia and information on meadows vulnerability to climate change represent key information for planning actions to conserve this critical habitat.

Non-point source pollution contributes significantly to stormwater contamination in urban areas. Low impact development (LID) techniques and technologies are developed as a response to these challenges. Green buildings incorporate environmentally responsible and resource-efficient technologies to reduce environmental impacts over their life cycle. Green roof systems are broadly recognized as LID practices that may improve urban environmental quality by reducing stormwater runoffs. Potential impact of green roofs on the quality of runoff may be a deterrent to wider application of green roof systems. Organic and inorganic fertilizers in growing media, for example, may contaminate runoff and generate non-point source pollution. Recently, various environmental assessment methods have been developed to assess the environmental performance of green building technologies. Methods developed to date, however, are insufficient for accurate quantitative estimation and evaluation of triple-bottom-line (TBL) sustainability performance objectives (i.e. economic, environmental, and social) in the context of green building technologies. This study has two main objectives. First, it aims to investigate the performance of green roofs in the context of runoff water quality in the semi-arid environment of Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada. An experimental investigation has been conducted to enhance green roof performance by addition of a supplemental filtration layer. Runoff and precipitation samples were analyzed for water quality parameters including pH, nitrate and ammonia. In the next step, a quantitative sustainability evaluation framework for green building technologies was developed. The proposed framework integrates fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) integrated with a ‘cradle-to-grave’ life cycle assessment to address interactions and influence of various TBL criteria. The experiment results showed that the generic green roofs runoff is acceptable for domestic reclaimed water used under Cnadaian guidelines for domestic reclaimed water. The analysis shows that green roofs are able to reduce non-point source nitrate and ammonia concentrations. The installation of extensive green roofs could decrease a large amount of non-point source nitrate and ammonia emissions in an urban area during their lifespan. The utility of the FAHP approach is demonstrated by comparing sustainability performance of two generic green roof systems with a conventional roof. The results show that an ‘extensive’ green roof system is a more desirable option in terms of long-term sustainability performance criteria.

Spatially explicit knowledge of land cover is increasingly important for environmental modeling and decision support for land managers. Such knowledge is often provided over large regions by thematic maps produced from remotely sensed satellite data. Remote sensing of vegetation in semi-arid areas is complicated, however, by high levels of landscape spatial heterogeneity, resulting in large part from spatially varying soils, topography, and microclimates. Increased understanding of spatial distributions of vegetation and the factors affecting them will enhance our ability to inventory and monitor natural resources, and to model potential consequences of land management alternatives and larger issues such as global climate change. In addition, the uncertainty in spatial knowledge must be made spatially explicit in order to determine where more information is needed and where predictions maybe less reliable. Geostatistical kriging and multiple linear regression interpolation were used to map climate spatial distributions over the San Pedro River watershed, southeastern Arizona. Both methods used climate station location and elevation and climate data. Although mean interpolation errors were similar, kriging climate with elevation as external drift was preferred due to the patterns of spatial bias in regression errors. Interpolation results provided a step toward understanding climate influence on vegetation in this area. Accuracies of four land cover maps covering the upper San Pedro watershed, mapped from remotely sensed data, were determined using aerial photography, digital orthophoto quadrangles, and airborne video data reference data sets as alternatives to contemporaneous ground-collected data. Overall map accuracies were 67--75%; class accuracies varied more for smaller classes than for larger ones. Finally, the uncertainty of occurrence of the low-accuracy Mesquite Woodland class was mapped using simple indicator kriging with locally varying means and data derived from accuracy assessment information. Enhanced class discrimination in an independent validation data set confirmed the utility of this procedure. The results of these analyses can provide direct input for use in environmental modeling and can inform land management decision making, and the methods can be employed in other settings where spatial variability and uncertainty play large roles in the landscape.

Sustainable Built Environments Senior Capstone
This paper will look at the current information concerning sustainable strategies. It will look at the ones that have been used in the past as well as the strategies that are currently being used. After studying the existing material on sustainable practices and strategies the next step will be looking at three primary sources and determining strategies that will be most useful. The first source that will be used is a professional working in the field. Secondly buildings that are located in a cold arid climate will be studied and finally a program called climate consultant. The recommendations from all three sources will be compiled in a list, organized by how many sources recommended each strategy. The strategies that have the most recommendations will be implemented into a residential single family building design for cold arid climates.

A series of 35mm color slides depicting landscape compositions incorporating arid climate plants was evaluated by a panel of experts to determine a correlation between the strength of four design principles (line, form, texture, and color) and the visual preference of the general public for these compositions. The results indicate that there is a positive correlation between preference and the strength of the design principles. It is felt that the results of this study support the idea that the four design principles do in fact influence preference in plantings that do well in arid climate environment.

This thesis aims to discuss the archaeological concerns about how surveys can provide data tht is meaningful to construct spatial patterning and its intricacies for inferences through altering processes diversified as cultural and natural processes. Along with that there is also a second concern dealing with the application of these theoretical issues to practical basis. It consists both methodological limits and also limits governed by the legislation of the particular area according to the aim of the study. A particular space, semi-arid climate is selected for comparing the amount of attrition and accretion caused by natural factors, to be able to apply the studies to Anatolian geography. However applications from around the world are frequently discussed here, these are mainly the case studies bringing methodological scheme for the appropriate data collection.

Water managers for the City of Phoenix face the need to make informed policy decisions regarding long-term impacts of climate change on the Salt-Verde River basin. To provide a scientifically informed basis for this, we estimate the evolution of important components of the basin-scale water balance through the end of the 21st century. Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate projections from the Phase-3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project of the World Climate Research Programme were used to drive a spatially distributed variable infiltration capacity model of the hydrologic processes in the Salt-Verde basin. From the many Global Climate Model's participating in the IPCC fourth assessment, we selected a five-model ensemble, including three that best reproduce the historical climatology for our study region, plus two others to represent wetter and drier than model average conditions; the latter two were requested by City of Phoenix water managers to more fully represent the full range of GCM prediction uncertainty. For each GCM, data for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) was used to drive the hydrologic model into the future. The model projections indicate a statistically significant 25% decrease in streamflow by the end of the 21st century. Contrary to previous assessments, this is not caused primarily by changes in the P/E ratio, but is found to result mainly from decreased winter precipitation accompanied by significant (temperature driven) reductions in storage of snow. The results show clearly the manner in which water management in central Arizona is likely to be impacted by changes in regional climate.

Water availability is a common concern in semi-arid regions, such as Southern Arizona, USA. Hydroponic greenhouse crop production greatly reduces irrigation water use, but the study of water use by evaporative cooling has been limited.This project investigated water use by two evaporative cooling systems: pad-and-fan and high-pressure-fog with fan ventilation. All studies were performed in a double-layer polyethylene film-covered greenhouse (28 x 9.8 x 6.3 m) with mature tomato plants (2.9 plants m-2). Water use efficiency (WUE, kg yield per m3 water use) was calculated daily according to ventilation rate, as well as for a 6-month croppipng period, which used temperature-controlled pad-and-fan cooling.Pad-and-fan water use was 3.2, 6.4, 8.5, and 10.3 L m-2 d-1 for ventilation rates of 0.016, 0.034, 0.047, 0.061 m3 m-2 s-1, respectively. High-pressure-fog water use with a single central, overhead line was 7.9, 7.4, and 9.3 L m-2 d-1 for ventilation rates of 0.01, 0.016, 0.034 m3 m-2 s-1, respectively. For pad-and-fan ventilation rates less than 0.034 m3 m-2 s-1, total greenhouse WUE (20 - 33 kg m-3) was similar to field drip irrigation. For the temperature-controlled high-pressure-fog system, total greenhouse WUE (14 - 17 kg m-3) was similar to field sprinkler irrigation.For the 6-month crop cycle, combining water use by closed irrigation and pad-and-fan systems produced a total WUE of 15 kg m-3. Pad-and-fan WUE increased during monsoon conditions due to lower water use rates.Evaporative cooling water use and air temperature were well-predicted by the energy balance model. Predictions of air temperature improved when outside climate the measured conditions at one greenhouse location. Wind tunnel and full-scale studies of natural ventilation demonstrated the value of knowing airflow patterns when designing and operating a high-pressure-fog systemIt is possible for greenhouse tomato production to have a higher WUE than field production, if ventilation rates are not excessive, if closed irrigation is used, and if control methodologies are improved. Water use can be minimized by knowing how the evaporative cooling system affects greenhouse climate and plant responses.

Sales of containerized roses have increased dramatically in recent years and producing flowering plants in containers in a timely manner is important to the nursery industry. An experiment was conducted to determine whether forcing containerized roses will be faster in a retractable roof greenhouse compared to outdoors. Results suggest that forcing roses in a retractable roof greenhouse can shorten the production time and increase quality of finished plants, however, cultivar, time of harvesting, and time in cold storage also affect these parameters.

Drylands cover about 40% of the earth’s land surface and provide the basis for the livelihoods of 38% of the global human population. Worldwide, these ecosystems are prone to heavy degradation. Increasing levels of dryland degradation result a strong decline of ecosystem services. In addition, in highly variable semi-arid environments changing future environmental conditions will potentially have severe consequences for productivity and ecosystem dynamics. Hence, global efforts have to be made to understand the particular causes and consequences of dryland degradation and to promote sustainable management options for semi-arid and arid ecosystems in a changing world. Here I particularly address the problem of semi-arid savanna degradation, which mostly occurs in form of woody plant encroachment. At this, I aim at finding viable sustainable management strategies and improving the general understanding of semi-arid savanna vegetation dynamics under conditions of extensive livestock production. Moreover, the influence of external forces, i.e. environmental change and land reform, on the use of savanna vegetation and on the ecosystem response to this land use is assessed. Based on this I identify conditions and strategies that facilitate a sustainable use of semi-arid savanna rangelands in a changing world. I extended an eco-hydrological model to simulate rangeland vegetation dynamics for a typical semi-arid savanna in eastern Namibia. In particular, I identified the response of semi-arid savanna vegetation to different land use strategies (including fire management) also with regard to different predicted precipitation, temperature and CO2 regimes. Not only environmental but also economic and political constraints like e.g. land reform programmes are shaping rangeland management strategies. Hence, I aimed at understanding the effects of the ongoing process of land reform in southern Africa on land use and the semi-arid savanna vegetation. Therefore, I developed and implemented an agent-based ecological-economic modelling tool for interactive role plays with land users. This tool was applied in an interdisciplinary empirical study to identify general patterns of management decisions and the between-farm cooperation of land reform beneficiaries in eastern Namibia. The eco-hydrological simulations revealed that the future dynamics of semi-arid savanna vegetation strongly depend on the respective climate change scenario. In particular, I found that the capacity of the system to sustain domestic livestock production will strongly depend on changes in the amount and temporal distribution of precipitation. In addition, my simulations revealed that shrub encroachment will become less likely under future climatic conditions although positive effects of CO2 on woody plant growth and transpiration have been considered. While earlier studies predicted a further increase in shrub encroachment due to increased levels of atmospheric CO2, my contrary finding is based on the negative impacts of temperature increase on the drought sensitive seedling germination and establishment of woody plant species. Further simulation experiments revealed that prescribed fires are an efficient tool for semi-arid rangeland management, since they suppress woody plant seedling establishment. The strategies tested have increased the long term productivity of the savanna in terms of livestock production and decreased the risk for shrub encroachment (i.e. savanna degradation). This finding refutes the views promoted by existing studies, which state that fires are of minor importance for the vegetation dynamics of semi-arid and arid savannas. Again, the difference in predictions is related to the bottleneck at the seedling establishment stage of woody plants, which has not been sufficiently considered in earlier studies. The ecological-economic role plays with Namibian land reform beneficiaries showed that the farmers made their decisions with regard to herd size adjustments according to economic but not according to environmental variables. Hence, they do not manage opportunistically by tracking grass biomass availability but rather apply conservative management strategies with low stocking rates. This implies that under the given circumstances the management of these farmers will not per se cause (or further worsen) the problem of savanna degradation and shrub encroachment due to overgrazing. However, as my results indicate that this management strategy is rather based on high financial pressure, it is not an indicator for successful rangeland management. Rather, farmers struggle hard to make any positive revenue from their farming business and the success of the Namibian land reform is currently disputable. The role-plays also revealed that cooperation between farmers is difficult even though obligatory due to the often small farm sizes. I thus propose that cooperation needs to be facilitated to improve the success of land reform beneficiaries.
Semiaride (halbtrockene) Savannen bedecken große Teile der Erdoberfläche und sichern die Lebensgrundlage von vielen Millionen Menschen. Die häufigste Form der Landnutzung in diesen Trockengebieten ist die Produktion von Vieh in extensiver Weidelandbewirtschaftung. In Folge klimatischer Veränderungen und als Konsequenz aus der teils intensiven Beweidung dieser Trockengebiete kommt es häufig zur Degradierung derselben in Form einer Zunahme von ‚unerwünschter‘ holziger Vegetation auf Kosten von futterverwertbaren Gräsern. Dieser als Verbuschung bezeichnete Prozess hat schwere negative Auswirkungen auf die betroffenen Ökosysteme und ist die Ursache für einen zunehmenden Rückgang der ökonomischen Leistungsfähigkeit der betroffenen Betriebe. In meiner Dissertation befasse ich mich mit den Auswirkungen von Klimawandel und politischen Veränderungen auf die Savannenvegetation im südlichen Afrika und auf die Möglichkeiten für die Nutzung dieser Ökosysteme in Form von Viehwirtschaft. Hierbei möchte ich sowohl das allgemeine Verständnis der ökologischen Zusammenhänge verbessern, als auch Strategien für die nachhaltige Nutzung der Savannen identifizieren und bewerten. Da nicht nur ökologische, sondern auch ökonomische und politische Einflussfaktoren, wie zum Beispiel die umfangreichen Landumverteilungen im Rahmen der Bodenreform im südlichen Afrika auf die tatsächliche Landnutzung wirken, habe ich im Rahmen der Dissertation zudem untersucht, nach welchen Umwelt und Kapitalvariablen sich die Farmer, welche Ihr Land im Rahmen der Bodenreform zugeteilt bekommen haben, bei Ihren Entscheidungen richten. Methodisch verwende ich verschiedene Simulationsmodelle, welche zur Untersuchung der langfristigen Veränderungen von verschiedensten Szenarien (Klimawandel, Landnutzung) geeignet sind. Hierbei habe ich teilweise bestehende Modelle angepasst, aber auch ein neues Modell, welches zur Befragung von Farmern in Namibia verwendet wurde, entwickelt. Meine Dissertation führt im Wesentlichen zu vier Erkenntnissen: Erstens, zeigen meine Ergebnisse, welche große Bedeutung die spezifischen ökologischen Eigenschaften der Bäume und Sträucher in semiariden Savannen für die Vorhersage der Entwicklung dieser Systeme unter Klimawandel hat. Hierbei zeigte sich, dass insbesondere die Sensitivität der Keimlinge gegenüber Trockenheit und Feuer eine entscheidende Rolle spielt. Daraus folgt die zweite wesentliche Erkenntnis: Feuer eignet sich in herausragender Weise, um halbtrockene Savannen vor der Verbuschung zu bewahren. Drittens haben die Rollenspiele mit Farmern in Namibia gezeigt, dass deren Entscheidungen im Wesentlichen von finanziellen Schwierigkeiten und nicht von Umwelteinflüssen getrieben werden. Dennoch zeigten meine Ergebnisse, dass diese Farmer mit Ihrem derzeitigen Verhalten wahrscheinlich nicht zur weiteren Degradierung der Savannenvegetation beitragen. Die vierte, und mit am bedeutendste Erkenntnis aus meiner Arbeit ist, dass konservative Beweidungsstrategien mit geringen und konstanten Viehdichten notwendig sind um semiaride Savannen dauerhaft in ökologisch und ökonomisch nachhaltiger Weise zu Nutzen.

Balancing plant growth between vegetative and reproductive status is crucial for producing high quality greenhouse tomatoes while maintaining high productivity in long crop production seasons. In the tomato industry, certain plant morphological characteristics are used to classify plant growth status as vegetative, reproductive or balanced. Each growth status has been associated with distinct greenhouse environments which reduce or enhance transpiration.The effect of different transpiration on vegetative, reproductive or balanced plant growth status as defined by a set of plant morphological characteristics was investigated. To validate the practical significance of such classification, growth status was quantified as the relationship between variations in morphological characteristics and the fresh weight distributed between reproductive and vegetative organs.Two electrical conductivity (EC) levels of the nutrient solution, high and standard EC, were combined with two potential transpiration environments, low and high potential transpiration. All treatment combinations were contrasted with a reference greenhouse environment similar to the industry standard.Electrical conductivity had the greatest effect on morphological characteristics which were reduced in size with high EC. For each EC level, the response decreased for increasing potential transpiration. Stem diameter had the greatest sensitivity to the different treatment combinations. For the standard EC and for the range of potential transpirations achieved, stem diameter varied within a relatively narrow range, close to the industry standard 'threshold' used to classify a balanced tomato plant. A reproductive plant growth status, as evaluated by a smaller value than this threshold, was observed only with high EC. No vegetative plants were produced within any potential transpiration or EC treatment combination.High EC decreased the cumulative total fresh weight production by the same magnitude for all potential transpirations. Potential transpiration had a minimal effect on the total fresh weight production or on its components. As a result, the fresh weight ratio between reproductive and vegetative plant organs was similar for most potential transpiration environments, regardless of variations in stem diameter. Therefore, within the range of potential transpiration environments achieved, the distinction between vegetative and reproductive growth status as an indicator of fresh weight distribution and fruit yields could not be quantitatively validated.

Semi-arid areas are, due to their climatic setting, characterized by small water resources. An increasing water demand as a consequence of population growth and economic development as well as a decreasing water availability in the course of possible climate change may aggravate water scarcity in future, which often exists already for present-day conditions in these areas. Understanding the mechanisms and feedbacks of complex natural and human systems, together with the quantitative assessment of future changes in volume, timing and quality of water resources are a prerequisite for the development of sustainable measures of water management to enhance the adaptive capacity of these regions. For this task, dynamic integrated models, containing a hydrological model as one component, are indispensable tools.
The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for the quantification of water availability in view of environmental change over a large geographic domain of semi-arid environments.
The study area is the Federal State of Ceará (150 000 km2) in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil. Mean annual precipitation in this area is 850 mm, falling in a rainy season with duration of about five months. Being mainly characterized by crystalline bedrock and shallow soils, surface water provides the largest part of the water supply. The area has recurrently been affected by droughts which caused serious economic losses and social impacts like migration from the rural regions.
The hydrological model Wasa (Model of Water Availability in Semi-Arid Environments) developed in this study is a deterministic, spatially distributed model being composed of conceptual, process-based approaches. Water availability (river discharge, storage volumes in reservoirs, soil moisture) is determined with daily resolution. Sub-basins, grid cells or administrative units (municipalities) can be chosen as spatial target units. The administrative units enable the coupling of Wasa in the framework of an integrated model which contains modules that do not work on the basis of natural spatial units.
The target units mentioned above are disaggregated in Wasa into smaller modelling units within a new multi-scale, hierarchical approach. The landscape units defined in this scheme capture in particular the effect of structured variability of terrain, soil and vegetation characteristics along toposequences on soil moisture and runoff generation. Lateral hydrological processes at the hillslope scale, as reinfiltration of surface runoff, being of particular importance in semi-arid environments, can thus be represented also within the large-scale model in a simplified form. Depending on the resolution of available data, small-scale variability is not represented explicitly with geographic reference in Wasa, but by the distribution of sub-scale units and by statistical transition frequencies for lateral fluxes between these units.
Further model components of Wasa which respect specific features of semi-arid hydrology are:
(1) A two-layer model for evapotranspiration comprises energy transfer at the soil surface (including soil evaporation), which is of importance in view of the mainly sparse vegetation cover. Additionally, vegetation parameters are differentiated in space and time in dependence on the occurrence of the rainy season.
(2) The infiltration module represents in particular infiltration-excess surface runoff as the dominant runoff component.
(3) For the aggregate description of the water balance of reservoirs that cannot be represented explicitly in the model, a storage approach respecting different reservoirs size classes and their interaction via the river network is applied.
(4) A model for the quantification of water withdrawal by water use in different sectors is coupled to Wasa.
(5) A cascade model for the temporal disaggregation of precipitation time series, adapted to the specific characteristics of tropical convective rainfall, is applied for the generating rainfall time series of higher temporal resolution.
All model parameters of Wasa can be derived from physiographic information of the study area. Thus, model calibration is primarily not required.
Model applications of Wasa for historical time series generally results in a good model performance when comparing the simulation results of river discharge and reservoir storage volumes with observed data for river basins of various sizes. The mean water balance as well as the high interannual and intra-annual variability is reasonably represented by the model. Limitations of the modelling concept are most markedly seen for sub-basins with a runoff component from deep groundwater bodies of which the dynamics cannot be satisfactorily represented without calibration.
Further results of model applications are:
(1) Lateral processes of redistribution of runoff and soil moisture at the hillslope scale, in particular reinfiltration of surface runoff, lead to markedly smaller discharge volumes at the basin scale than the simple sum of runoff of the individual sub-areas. Thus, these processes are to be captured also in large-scale models. The different relevance of these processes for different conditions is demonstrated by a larger percentage decrease of discharge volumes in dry as compared to wet years.
(2) Precipitation characteristics have a major impact on the hydrological response of semi-arid environments. In particular, underestimated rainfall intensities in the rainfall input due to the rough temporal resolution of the model and due to interpolation effects and, consequently, underestimated runoff volumes have to be compensated in the model. A scaling factor in the infiltration module or the use of disaggregated hourly rainfall data show good results in this respect.
The simulation results of Wasa are characterized by large uncertainties. These are, on the one hand, due to uncertainties of the model structure to adequately represent the relevant hydrological processes. On the other hand, they are due to uncertainties of input data and parameters particularly in view of the low data availability. Of major importance is:
(1) The uncertainty of rainfall data with regard to their spatial and temporal pattern has, due to the strong non-linear hydrological response, a large impact on the simulation results.
(2) The uncertainty of soil parameters is in general of larger importance on model uncertainty than uncertainty of vegetation or topographic parameters.
(3) The effect of uncertainty of individual model components or parameters is usually different for years with rainfall volumes being above or below the average, because individual hydrological processes are of different relevance in both cases. Thus, the uncertainty of individual model components or parameters is of different importance for the uncertainty of scenario simulations with increasing or decreasing precipitation trends.
(4) The most important factor of uncertainty for scenarios of water availability in the study area is the uncertainty in the results of global climate models on which the regional climate scenarios are based. Both a marked increase or a decrease in precipitation can be assumed for the given data.
Results of model simulations for climate scenarios until the year 2050 show that a possible future change in precipitation volumes causes a larger percentage change in runoff volumes by a factor of two to three. In the case of a decreasing precipitation trend, the efficiency of new reservoirs for securing water availability tends to decrease in the study area because of the interaction of the large number of reservoirs in retaining the overall decreasing runoff volumes.
Semiaride Gebiete sind auf Grund der klimatischen Bedingungen durch geringe Wasserressourcen gekennzeichnet. Ein zukünftig steigender Wasserbedarf in Folge von Bevölkerungswachstum und ökonomischer Entwicklung sowie eine geringere Wasserverfügbarkeit durch mögliche Klimaänderungen können dort zu einer Verschärfung der vielfach schon heute auftretenden Wasserknappheit führen. Das Verständnis der Mechanismen und Wechselwirkungen des komplexen Systems von Mensch und Umwelt sowie die quantitative Bestimmung zukünftiger Veränderungen in der Menge, der zeitlichen Verteilung und der Qualität von Wasserressourcen sind eine grundlegende Voraussetzung für die Entwicklung von nachhaltigen Maßnahmen des Wassermanagements mit dem Ziel einer höheren Anpassungsfähigkeit dieser Regionen gegenüber künftigen Änderungen. Hierzu sind dynamische integrierte Modelle unerlässlich, die als eine Komponente ein hydrologisches Modell beinhalten.
Vorrangiges Ziel dieser Arbeit ist daher die Erstellung eines hydrologischen Modells zur großräumigen Bestimmung der Wasserverfügbarkeit unter sich ändernden Umweltbedingungen in semiariden Gebieten.
Als Untersuchungsraum dient der im semiariden tropischen Nordosten Brasiliens gelegene Bundestaat Ceará (150 000 km2). Die mittleren Jahresniederschläge in diesem Gebiet liegen bei 850 mm innerhalb einer etwa fünfmonatigen Regenzeit. Mit vorwiegend kristallinem Grundgebirge und geringmächtigen Böden stellt Oberflächenwasser den größten Teil der Wasserversorgung bereit. Die Region war wiederholt von Dürren betroffen, die zu schweren ökonomischen Schäden und sozialen Folgen wie Migration aus den ländlichen Gebieten geführt haben.
Das hier entwickelte hydrologische Modell Wasa (Model of Water Availability in Semi-Arid Environments) ist ein deterministisches, flächendifferenziertes Modell, das aus konzeptionellen, prozess-basierten Ansätzen aufgebaut ist. Die Wasserverfügbarkeit (Abfluss im Gewässernetz, Speicherung in Stauseen, Bodenfeuchte) wird mit täglicher Auflösung bestimmt. Als räumliche Zieleinheiten können Teileinzugsgebiete, Rasterzellen oder administrative Einheiten (Gemeinden) gewählt werden. Letztere ermöglichen die Kopplung des Modells im Rahmen der integrierten Modellierung mit Modulen, die nicht auf der Basis natürlicher Raumeinheiten arbeiten.
Im Rahmen eines neuen skalenübergreifenden, hierarchischen Ansatzes werden in Wasa die genannten Zieleinheiten in kleinere räumliche Modellierungseinheiten unterteilt. Die ausgewiesenen Landschaftseinheiten erfassen insbesondere die strukturierte Variabilität von Gelände-, Boden- und Vegetationseigenschaften entlang von Toposequenzen in ihrem Einfluss auf Bodenfeuchte und Abflussbildung. Laterale hydrologische Prozesse auf kleiner Skala, wie die für semiaride Bedingungen bedeutsame Wiederversickerung von Oberflächenabfluss, können somit auch in der erforderlichen großskaligen Modellanwendung vereinfacht wiedergegeben werden. In Abhängigkeit von der Auflösung der verfügbaren Daten wird in Wasa die kleinskalige Variabilität nicht räumlich explizit sondern über die Verteilung von Flächenanteilen subskaliger Einheiten und über statistische Übergangshäufigkeiten für laterale Flüsse zwischen den Einheiten berücksichtigt.
Weitere Modellkomponenten von Wasa, die spezifische Bedingungen semiarider Gebiete berücksichtigen, sind:
(1) Ein Zwei-Schichten-Modell zur Bestimmung der Evapotranspiration berücksichtigt auch den Energieumsatz an der Bodenoberfläche (inklusive Bodenverdunstung), der in Anbetracht der meist lichten Vegetationsbedeckung von Bedeutung ist. Die Vegetationsparameter werden zudem flächen- und zeitdifferenziert in Abhängigkeit vom Auftreten der Regenzeit modifiziert.
(2) Das Infiltrationsmodul bildet insbesondere Oberflächenabfluss durch Infiltrationsüberschuss als dominierender Abflusskomponente ab.
(3) Zur aggregierten Beschreibung der Wasserbilanz von im Modell nicht einzeln erfassbaren Stauseen wird ein Speichermodell unter Berücksichtigung verschiedener Größenklassen und ihrer Interaktion über das Gewässernetz eingesetzt.
(4) Ein Modell zur Bestimmung der Entnahme durch Wassernutzung in verschiedenen Sektoren ist an Wasa gekoppelt.
(5) Ein Kaskadenmodell zur zeitlichen Disaggregierung von Niederschlagszeitreihen, das in dieser Arbeit speziell für tropische konvektive Niederschlagseigenschaften angepasst wird, wird zur Erzeugung höher aufgelöster Niederschlagsdaten verwendet.
Alle Modellparameter von Wasa können von physiographischen Gebietsinformationen abgeleitet werden, sodass eine Modellkalibrierung primär nicht erforderlich ist.
Die Modellanwendung von Wasa für historische Zeitreihen ergibt im Allgemeinen eine gute Übereinstimmung der Simulationsergebnisse für Abfluss und Stauseespeichervolumen mit Beobachtungsdaten in unterschiedlich großen Einzugsgebieten. Die mittlere Wasserbilanz sowie die hohe monatliche und jährliche Variabilität wird vom Modell angemessen wiedergegeben. Die Grenzen der Anwendbarkeit des Modell-konzepts zeigen sich am deutlichsten in Teilgebieten mit Abflusskomponenten aus tieferen Grundwasserleitern, deren Dynamik ohne Kalibrierung nicht zufriedenstellend abgebildet werden kann.
Die Modellanwendungen zeigen weiterhin:
(1) Laterale Prozesse der Umverteilung von Bodenfeuchte und Abfluss auf der Hangskala, vor allem die Wiederversickerung von Oberflächenabfluss, führen auf der Skala von Einzugsgebieten zu deutlich kleineren Abflussvolumen als die einfache Summe der Abflüsse der Teilflächen. Diese Prozesse sollten daher auch in großskaligen Modellen abgebildet werden. Die unterschiedliche Ausprägung dieser Prozesse für unterschiedliche Bedingungen zeigt sich an Hand einer prozentual größeren Verringerung der Abflussvolumen in trockenen im Vergleich zu feuchten Jahren.
(2) Die Niederschlagseigenschaften haben einen sehr großen Einfluss auf die hydrologische Reaktion in semiariden Gebieten. Insbesondere die durch die grobe zeitliche Auflösung des Modells und durch Interpolationseffekte unterschätzten Niederschlagsintensitäten in den Eingangsdaten und die daraus folgende Unterschätzung von Abflussvolumen müssen im Modell kompensiert werden. Ein Skalierungsfaktor in der Infiltrationsroutine oder die Verwendung disaggregierter stündlicher Niederschlagsdaten zeigen hier gute Ergebnisse.
Die Simulationsergebnisse mit Wasa sind insgesamt durch große Unsicherheiten gekennzeichnet. Diese sind einerseits in Unsicherheiten der Modellstruktur zur adäquaten Beschreibung der relevanten hydrologischen Prozesse begründet, andererseits in Daten- und Parametersunsicherheiten in Anbetracht der geringen Datenverfügbarkeit. Von besonderer Bedeutung ist:
(1) Die Unsicherheit der Niederschlagsdaten in ihrem räumlichen Muster und ihrer zeitlichen Struktur hat wegen der stark nicht-linearen hydrologischen Reaktion einen großen Einfluss auf die Simulationsergebnisse.
(2) Die Unsicherheit von Bodenparametern hat im Vergleich zu Vegetationsparametern und topographischen Parametern im Allgemeinen einen größeren Einfluss auf die Modellunsicherheit.
(3) Der Effekt der Unsicherheit einzelner Modellkomponenten und -parameter ist für Jahre mit unter- oder überdurchschnittlichen Niederschlagsvolumen zumeist unterschiedlich, da einzelne hydrologische Prozesse dann jeweils unterschiedlich relevant sind. Die Unsicherheit einzelner Modellkomponenten- und parameter hat somit eine unterschiedliche Bedeutung für die Unsicherheit von Szenarienrechnungen mit steigenden oder fallenden Niederschlagstrends.
(4) Der bedeutendste Unsicherheitsfaktor für Szenarien der Wasserverfügbarkeit für die Untersuchungsregion ist die Unsicherheit der den regionalen Klimaszenarien zu Grunde liegenden Ergebnisse globaler Klimamodelle. Eine deutliche Zunahme oder Abnahme der Niederschläge bis 2050 kann gemäß den hier vorliegenden Daten für das Untersuchungsgebiet gleichermaßen angenommen werden.
Modellsimulationen für Klimaszenarien bis zum Jahr 2050 ergeben, dass eine mögliche zukünftige Veränderung der Niederschlagsmengen zu einer prozentual zwei- bis dreifach größeren Veränderung der Abflussvolumen führt. Im Falle eines Trends von abnehmenden Niederschlagsmengen besteht in der Untersuchungsregion die Tendenz, dass auf Grund der gegenseitigen Beeinflussung der großen Zahl von Stauseen beim Rückhalt der tendenziell abnehmenden Abflussvolumen die Effizienz von neugebauten Stauseen zur Sicherung der Wasserverfügbarkeit zunehmend geringer wird.

In a series of three studies, we assess modern debris-flow hazards in Arizona from extreme precipitation events and following wildfires. In the first study, we use a combination of surficial geologic mapping, ¹⁰Be exposure age dating and modeling to assess prehistoric to modern debris-flow deposits on two alluvial fans in order to place debris-flow hazards in the context of both the modern environment and the last major period of climate change. Late Pleistocene to early Holocene debris flows were larger and likely initiated by larger landslides or other mass movement failures, unlike recent debris flows that typically initiate from shallow (~1 m) failures and scour channels, thus limiting total volumes. In the second study we assess the predictive strengths of existing post wildfire debris-flow probability and volume models for use in Arizona's varied physiographic regions, and define a new rainfall threshold valid for Arizona. We show that all of the models have adequate predictive strength throughout most of the state, and that the debris-flow volume model over-predicts in all of our study areas. Our analysis shows that the choice of a model for a hazard assessment depends strongly on location. The objectively defined rainfall intensity-duration thresholds of I₁₀ and I₁₅ (52 and 42 mm h⁻¹, respectively) have the strongest predictive strengths, although all five of the threshold models performed well. In the third study, we explore various basin physiographic and soil burn severity factors to identify patterns and criteria that can be used to discriminate between potential non-debris-flow (nD) and debris-flow (D) producing basins. Findings from this study show that a metric of percent basins area with high soil burn severity on slopes ≥30 degrees provides a stronger discrimination between nD and D basins than do basin metrics, such as mean basin gradient or relief. Mean basin elevation was also found to discriminate nD from D basins and is likely a proxy for forest type and density, which relates to soil thickness, root density and the magnitude of post-disturbance erosion. Finally, we found that post-fire channel heads formed at essentially the same slope range (~30-40 degrees) as saturation-induced hill slope failures.

Two different space-time models are developed to estimate downscaled precIpItation and temperature under the 2 x CO₂ scenario of climate change over semi-arid regions of southwestern USA. represented by Arizona and New-Mexico (upper RioGrande river basin). Local precipitation and temperature are assumed to be dependent upon two effects: the first one, a global effect, is captured by atmospheric circulation pattern (CP) types and the other, a local effect, is reflected by spatially averaged daily pressure heights of the 500 hPa pressure field (h) within the region. CP classification is performed for the 500 hPa pressure fields of observed data and that obtained from the output of the Max Plank Institute (MPI) general circulation (GCM) model T21 for the 1 x CO₂ and 2 x CO₂ scenarios. The evolution of CP types for different scenarios are modeled by a Markov process. Daily precipitation and temperature conditioned on a CP type are modeled by multivariate autoregressive processes. The daily precipitation probability is linked to h through a parametric regression and daily precipitation amount is modeled by a gamma distribution. The daily temperature is modeled by a two sided normal distribution whose parameters are estimated conditioned on fitted values of h. Models are validated using split sampling. Simulations are performed to generate a series of daily rainfall and temperature (maximum and minimum) both in Arizona and New Mexico stations. Statistical properties of model outputs and statistical significance tests are carried out for current conditions and under climate change using 2 x CO₂ scenarios. The results show that precipitation and temperature are increasing significantly with the increase in CO₂ content. Increases in temperature are more prominent in spring and fall. However the actual amounts of increase in precipitation and temperature depend both on the season and station location.

Land cover and climate change with their associated impacts on runoff are among the pressing areas of research within the western United States. In the first paper of this dissertation, we identified a total of 39 watersheds draining to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gauges, chosen either from the USGS Hydroclimatic Climatic Data Network of gauges that are minimally impacted by anthropogenic alterations, or because they have long, relatively continuous streamflow records and are representative of large areas within the study region in Utah. In each of these watersheds we examined trends in precipitation, temperature, snow, streamflow and runoff ratio as well as land use and land cover information. In addition, we developed a water balance model to quantify the sensitivity of runoff to changes in vegetation based on differences in evapotranspiration from different land cover types. The second paper addressed runoff sensitivity to land cover changes in a spatially explicit way by performing detailed simulations using a Regional Hydro Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) model applied to the Weber River near Oakley watershed (USGS gauge # 10128500). Our runoff sensitivity results suggest that during winter reduced Leaf Area Index (LAI) decreases canopy interception, which tends to increase snow accumulations, and hence snow available for runoff during the early spring melt season. Increased LAI during spring melt season tends to delay the snow melting process due to reduced radiation beneath high LAI surfaces relative to low LAI surfaces. The last paper examined the sensitivity of the Great Salt Lake level to changes in streamflow input or changes in climate that manifest as changes in air temperatures over the lake. We quantified this sensitivity by examining an elasticity measure defined as the ratio of the variability of streamflow, precipitation, evaporation, area and salinity to the variability in historic volume changes. We also developed a mass balance model to simulate lake level and volume driven by stochastic precipitation, streamflow and climate inputs. We showed that fluctuation in streamflow is the dominant factor in lake level fluctuations, but that fluctuations in lake area, which modulates evaporation and precipitation directly on the lake, are also important.

Assessments of the anthropogenic threats to savanna ecosystems are primarily focussed on land use change, bush encroachment, and biological invasions. There is, however, very little understanding as to the threats from atmospheric pollution. South Africa is the major emitter of CO2 on the African content while the Mpumalanga region bordering the Kruger National Park (KNP) is among the leading regions for nitrous oxide pollution in the world. It is not only increasing atmospheric pollution, but rainfall intensity is also predicted to increase for southern Africa. As savannas are nutrient limited, an increase in nitrogen deposition will have major consequences for vegetation structure and this can only be exacerbated by increased rainfall amounts. Current research suggests that these predicted increases in water and nutrients will result in increasing grass biomass and decreasing herbaceous species richness. The effects of global change drivers on savanna vegetation are also likely to propagate through to multiple trophic levels, with changes in vegetation structure cascading down to invertebrate assemblages. As invertebrates are ubiquitous, form the bulk of metazoan species diversity and biomass on earth, and play a pivotal role in many ecosystems, I discuss in the introductory chapter of this thesis why the influence of global change on these assemblages should not be ignored. In my first data chapter, Chapter 2, I examine the effect that increases in available nutrients and water may have on vegetation structure, and how this may cascade down to grasshopper and ant assemblages. I do this using a fully factorial experiment in KNP with nutrient and water additions where I assessed both herbaceous (forb and grass) and insect (ant and grasshopper) assemblages five years after resource additions began. My results show that there was a substantial increase in grass biomass while plant and insect species richness declined with water addition alone and that a combination of nutrients and water resulted in the greatest increases in grass biomass and concomitant decreases in plant and insect species richness. The effects of nutrient and water additions on the insect community assembly was primarily driven by a decrease in grasshopper species and ant abundance respectively. An analysis of ant functional traits showed that the rare ant species mediated the impact of the resource additions on the ant assemblage. Fire is inherent to savanna systems with profound effects on vegetation structure. There has, however, been relatively little research on the effects of fire on savanna invertebrate fauna. In Chapter 3 I look at the effect that fire may have on the vegetation and insect community assembly at my study site between five and eight months after the site had been burned. These results show an increase in grass biomass and decrease in plant and insect species richness with a combination of nutrients and water. My results also show that grasshopper biomass, abundance, and species richness decreased as herbaceous biomass decreased. While ant species richness decreased, ant abundance increased post-fire, primarily related to an increase in patches of bare ground. With global change, drought frequency is also expected to increase. The insect and grass assemblages, both on and off Macrotermes mounds, at two sites in the southern section of KNP had been sampled in a separate study in 2012. In Chapter 4 I describe a study where I resampled these mounds during the peak of the most severe drought in 30 years. The two sites differed in drought severity, one where the drought severity was very high and the other where severity was much lower. The objective was to determine the effects that drought may have on the grass and associated insect assemblages both on and off termite mounds. My results show that at the high severity site grass cover and biomass and grasshopper abundance decreased both on and off mounds. The overall reduction in habitat structure resulted in an increase in both ant abundance and species richness but the mound and matrix ant assemblages diverged during drought. Where the drought was less severe there was an increase in large mammal herbivores as animals moved out of the more affected areas. This increase in mammal herbivory was more evident on rather than off mounds resulting in grass biomass being lower on rather than off mounds. The cascading effect saw grasshopper abundance decrease on and increase off mounds. The mound and matrix ant assemblages did not respond to the comparatively smaller change in habitat structure. Finally, in the synthesis chapter I discuss my results in the broader context of how global change drivers such as increased nitrogen deposition may cascade down from plant to insect community assembly. At present there is very little understanding of the amounts of nitrogen being deposited in KNP or the effect that this may have. The results of my study would suggest that this increase in nitrogen deposition will have major consequences for vegetation structure and that this will cascade down to the insect assemblage. In mitigating for this, it is therefore essential that management in KNP adapt a monitoring protocol for nitrogen deposition, especially when considering that where N deposition is really high fire may not volatilise everything to allow the system to reset itself back to its original state. It is not only nitrogen deposition, but drought frequency is also likely to increase. In mitigation for this there should also be monitoring programmes to consider the effects of drought as animals may move from areas of high drought severity to areas where severity is lower. Such movement will increase grazing pressure on both low and high nutrient environments with cascading effects on vegetation structure and insect assemblages.

Mestrado em Viticultura e Enologia - Instituto Superior de Agronomia
This work aims to study the evolution of the various characteristics of wine, using with samples from vineyards in the region of the São Francisco Valley, Brazil that are in different states of maturation. Samples were taken from four different plots that were pruned at different dates, from Cabernet Sauvignon, Aragonez and Alicante Bouschet varieties. Before analyzing the samples, two different types of analysis were evaluated concerning the precursors of aromas, tannins and anthocyanins levels of total phenolic contents. At the end the Carbonneau method was chosen for the extraction of compounds and in order to study them after. To complement the analysis of each sample the following characteristics were also analyzed: sugars, malic acid, tartaric acid and total acidity. The study shows that many of the changes in the evolution of aging are due to the weather, and that the greater the degree of maturity the further the weather is an interfering factor. We must also bear in mind that the plots had differences in viticultural practices, and it was demonstrated that driving systems, clones and rootstocks also interfere with the results of the samples

De nombreux projets de protection et de reforestation sont mis en place à l'échelle internationale pour enrayer la déforestation croissante. L'objectif de ce travail de thèse est de mieux caractériser les contraintes et les opportunités de projets de reboisement, pour les régions tropicales semi-arides, particulièrement vulnérables, dans le contexte duchangement climatique global. La revue de littérature (chapitre 1) confirme que les projets de reforestation ayant vocation à atténuer le réchauffement climatique ont plus de chances de réussite sous les latitudes tropicales, où les différents effets de la végétation sur le climat convergent dans ce sens. Entreprise pour satisfaire divers services écosystémiques, la reforestation dans les zones tropicales semi-arides est ainsi porteuse d'effets bénéfiques tant globalement que localement. Cependant, dans ce contexte très limité en eau, l'implantation d'un couvert arboré trop dense pourrait avoir des effets opposés à ceux recherchés à long terme. Dans le chapitre 2, une approche «bioclimatique » est appliquée à un ensemble multi-modèle de projections, pour suivre l'évolution du domaine tropicalsemi-aride global sous l'effet de plusieurs scénarios (RCP) de changement climatique. Ce domaine se maintient en majeure partie dans les conditions futures. Une certaine proportion évolue toutefois vers des conditions soit plus arides (jusqu'à +25% du domaine global) soit plus humides (jusqu'à 11%). Malgré cela, le domaine étudié s'accroît entre ledébut et la fin du 21e siècle, jusqu'à 13% en moyenne (RCP 8.5). Ceci résulte d'un élargissement progressif en-dehors de la ceinture tropicale, corrélé avec le réchauffement global, et cohérent avec l'hypothèse d'un élargissement de la circulation de Hadley. La méthodologie proposée au chapitre 3 a pour objectif d'analyser les implications de cetteévolution sur le potentiel climatique de maintien d'un couvert arboré. L'utilisation d'un modèle global de végétation (ORCHIDEE, développé à l'IPSL) pour simuler ce potentiel permet de prendre en compte de manière mécaniste les facteurs climatiques de la croissance des plantes. Une typologie des profils de résultats délimite des sous-régionscaractérisées chacune par une relation distincte du développement des arbres à la densité du couvert. Les cinq "régimes" de la typologie sont ainsi classés du plus défavorable (régime 1) au plus favorable (régime 5). L'expérience de référence est réalisée à partir de données d'observation (CRU). Le régime 1, caractérisé par l'absence de maintiend'un couvert pour les plus hautes densités arborées, occupe près de la moitié du domaine étudié. Le second régime le plus représenté est le régime 4 (28% du domaine). Plus favorable, il est défini par un développement des arbres élevé, sans être maximal, pour toutes les densités arborées. Le potentiel arboré de chaque régime est caractérisé par sonoptimum : fraction arborée réalisant le meilleur compromis entre productivité du peuplement et développement des arbres. L'application de cette méthodologie à des projections climatiques futures, pour le RCP 8.5, fait l'objet du chapitre 4. Le modèle ORCHIDEE est forcé avec des sorties de modèles de climat, pour le début et la fin du 21esiècle. A la fin du siècle, le régime 1 ne représente plus que 25% du domaine total, en moyenne, tandis que le régime 4 devient prépondérant (49% du domaine). La stabilité du potentiel arboré intrinsèque à chaque régime permet d'interpréter une évolution vers un régime plus ou moins favorable comme une augmentation ou une diminution de cepotentiel. Or celui ne subit pas la diminution générale que l'augmentation de l'aridité laissait présager. Une expérience complémentaire montre que la raison en tient principalement à l'effet de fertilisation du CO2 atmosphérique. L'interprétation de ces résultats montre ainsi que les zones du domaine tropical semi-aride dans lesquelles unereforestation serait à déconseiller sont assez peu étendues
In the face of evergrowing global deforestation, numerous forest protection and restoration projects have been deployed at the international scale. The goal of this thesis is to provide adaptation planning in the vulnerable tropical semi-arid regions with scientific material about reforestation project constraints and opportunities at the global scale, inthe context of climate change. The literature review (chapter 1) confirms that reforestation projects aimed at warmingmitigation hold a better chance of success under tropical lattitudes. Indeed, both biochemical and biophysical effects of the vegetation on climate converge toward a global cooling effect. As reforestation in tropical semi-arid regions aims at satisfying various ecosystemic services, it holds beneficial promises at both the global and the local scale. However, due to scarce water resources, implementing a tree cover in semi-arid conditions could turn out unsustainable in the long run. A bioclimatological is applied, in chapter 2, to a multimodel ensemble of projections in order to draw the evolution of global tropical semi-arid territory under several climate change scenarios (RCP). The present tropical semi-arid territory is expected to remain mostly so in future conditions. However, up to 25% of the this territory on average will evolve towards arider conditions, and up to 11% towards wetter conditions. Nevertheless, the tropical semi-arid territory will increase by the end of the 21st century, by up to 13% on average (RCP 8.5). This increase results from a migration outside of the tropical belt, consistent with the Hadley circulation widening hypothesis under climate change. Chapter 3 proposes a methodology aimed at analysing the implications of this evolution for the climatic potential of tree cover sustainability. The global vegetation model (ORCHIDEE, developed at IPSL), used to simulate this potential, accounts mechanistically for all the climatic factors of the plant's growth. A typology of result profiles from the simulation experiments partitions the territory into subregions characterized by a specific relation between the tree development and the tree cover density: five types range from the least (Type 1) to the most (Type 4) favourable ones. A reference experiment is performed using observational climate data (from the Climatic Research Unit). Covering almost half of the territory, Type 1 is characterized by the impossibility to maintain a tree cover for the highest cover densities. The second type in order of surface occupation is Type 4 (28% of the territory). More favourable, it is characterized by high tree development for any tree cover density. The "tree cover potential" of each type is characterized by its optimum: the tree cover density that realises the best compromise between tree development and total productivity. In Chapter 4, the same methodology is applied to future climate projections for RCP 8.5. The ORCHIDEE model is thus forced with global climate model outputs, for the beginning and the end of the 21st century. By the end of the century, Type 1 represents no more than 25% of the tropical semi-arid territory on average, while Type 4 becomes the dominant one (49% of the territory). Because of the stability of the tree cover potential whithin each type, the evolution toward a more or less favourable type can be directly interpreted in terms of an increasing or a decreasing potential. The results show that the tree cover potential in the tropical semi-arid territory does not systematically suffer from the general decrease that could be expected from increasing aridity. A complementary experiment suggests that the main reason for this result lies is the atmospheric CO2 fertilization effect. Interpreting these results for reforestation strategy recommandations, suggests that, for the long term, areas of the tropical semi-arid territory where reforestation would be advised against are overall relatively small

Hundreds of international water institutions have been established over the last three decades in an attempt to address global water issues. Despite great efforts by these and other institutions, a significant percentage of the world's population still lacks access to clean water and sanitation facilities. Although billions of dollars have been spent on development, infrastructure and public health endeavors meant to tackle such issues, little research has been done to examine how these often influential organizations known as global water initiatives (GWIs) are addressing such urgent issues in the face of a rapidly changing climate. As water is central to the hydrological cycle, and affected by changes in climate, examining the role of GWIs in the use and translation of climate-change science may lead to better understanding of the mechanisms through which such organizations are linking climate change to their work in water management and governance. By examining 170 GWIs through two distinct phases of methodology, it was found that GWIs are addressing climate change issues through their work with water. Evidence presented in this research supports the claim that GWIs have adopted climate change as part of their overall operational frameworks and that their missions may be supported and ultimately achieved through the addition of climate-change science. While GWIs are shown to use climate-change science in setting objectives, and in decision making, it was also found that issues of cost, access, and utility remain as significant barriers. Findings presented in this study also suggest that intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations, alongside professional societies dedicated to trades and disciplines related to water, are among the most important categories of GWIs, and as such, operate within a series of complex networks. This research also revealed that activities and outputs of GWIs enhance water management and governance, contribute to the world's knowledge base on water, and highlight the need to acknowledge GWIs as an important and prominent aspect of the global water dialogue.

The thermal environment in outdoor spaces can significantly influence users’ thermal perception and thus their use of these spaces. Improving microclimatic conditions in urban spaces will most likely encourage people to spend more time outdoors, with the potential to improve their health and wellbeing, as well as boosting social cohesion. As well as enhancing the environmental quality of cities it should also eventually improve the quality of life of its citizens. This thesis is one of the first attempts to investigate the outdoor thermal comfort and the effect of cultural differences in hot arid climates. Case studies were carefully selected in two different parts of the world (Marrakech in North Africa and Phoenix-Arizona in North America) to represent a variety of users in similar climatic context. Field surveys, carried out during winter and summer, included: structured interviews with a standard questionnaire; observations of the human activities; and microclimatic monitoring. The results revealed that the solely physiological approach is insufficient to assess the outdoor thermal comfort conditions in hot arid climates. Environmental variables such as air temperature and solar radiation, could have a great impact on the use of the outdoor spaces in the hot arid climate, and may determine the number of people and activities in them. The study also shows that participants who usually spend more time outdoors due to their life style, “outdoors individuals”, tend to stay longer in the studied sites compared with the “indoors individuals” who spend more time indoors. This is probably because the “outdoor individuals” have better experience of the outdoor conditions and respective thermal conditions. Experience has a strong link with expectations so that according to their past experience, people prepare themselves for the expected weather by taking adaptive measures. People from different cultures in the hot arid climate are likely to evaluate their thermal conditions differently, have diverse thermal comfort requirements, and use urban public spaces differently as well. Further work needs to be done to cover more geographical areas within the hot arid climate. Such an expansion may generalise the findings of this study or explain any particularity associated with the sites of the current study. More research is also needed to investigate he thermal requirements and use of outdoor spaces by different social groups by using robust classification methods. Emphasis should be on investigating the influence of thermal comfort on the use of outdoor public spaces by young and older people, and how that may affect their health and will being in such climates.

Droughts induced by climate change will most likely push dryland ecosystems beyond their biophysical thresholds and lead to long-term decline in agricultural productivity. Subsistence farming in developing countries where agricultural productivity is low will become less viable for many families already ravaged by food insecurity and poverty. This dissertation examines three ways of reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate variability and building resilience in the farming communities residing in semiarid lands. These include the use of adaptive seed technology, migration as a livelihood diversification and adaptive strategy, and the use of climate information in farm decision-making. The second chapter evaluates the impact of improved adaptive seed technology on market participation and food security, using data from a representative sample of 1344 households selected across six agroecological zones in Kenya. The study employed two estimation procedures for impact evaluation: a control function regression using OLS and IV regression estimated by Heckman bivariate sample selection model and 2SLS regression. The study used percentile shares approach to describe distributional inequalities in improved seed adoption across households. Kenya has a well-developed seed system, through which adaptive maize seed has been introduced for various agro-ecological zones. Despite its success with improved maize breeding programs, Kenya is still grappling with food insecurity. The marketed share of household's maize produce, among adopters, was on average 12 percentage points higher than for the control group. This increased with adoption intensity, albeit at a decreasing rate. The top 20% of households accounted for 63% of the quantity and 65% of the area planted with improved maize. The bottom 40% only accounted for 6% of the quantity purchased and 5% of the area planted with improved maize. Adopting households were less vulnerable to food insecurity and stored maize for longer than non-adopters. Larger families participated less in the market and were more food insecure. Wealth and education are other key determinants of food security and market participation. The results of the study indicate a need for a strategic policy on food security in Kenya that considers the concentrated nature of the maize farming sector, to address the problem of food insecurity. Such a policy could aim at food self-sufficiency for small farms and promote commercial production by large-scale producers for national strategic reserves. There is also a need for post-harvest policies that promote safe on-farm grain storage for small and medium scale producers. The third chapter focuses on migration, because of the growing interest among scholars in understanding the relationship between migration and adaptation to climate change. Past studies have looked at climate change as a trigger for migration, but the focus has now shifted to looking at migration as an enabler of climate-change adaptation and a livelihood diversification strategy. However, those most vulnerable to climate variability are the poor who are less able to afford mobility and entry costs. This study adds to the literature by evaluating, in chapter 3, the impact of migration on household consumption expenditure, relative food expenditure share, dietary diversity, spending on agricultural inputs and adaptive capacity. The study used survey data collected from a representative sample of 653 households across three arid regions of Northern Namibia. The study employed a novel identification strategy in migration studies by combining the standard exogenous instruments and Lewbel's constructed instruments using heteroscedastic errors. The study found two-thirds of the sampled households to be migrant-sending households. Poverty and the lack of economic opportunities in the rural villages were the main push factors driving migration to towns and cities. Although tertiary education and technical training of the migrants are key determinants of remittances received by migrant-sending households, over three quarters of the migrants were unskilled and very few having tertiary level training. Migrant-sending households had lower consumption spending and higher food budget share, suggesting relative deprivation. Although consumption spending increased with number of migrants, quality of human capital had greater impact on well-being. Migration had a positive impact on household's adaptive capacity but an inverse relationship between number of migrants and adaptation suggests failure of local adaptive strategies. The study finds households with migrants to have a significantly higher spending on agricultural inputs than those without migrants, with tractor-hire services for land preparation being a major component. The effect of family labour loss is somehow, through remittances, countervailed and compensated by mechanization. In conclusion, migration can potentially play a bigger role as an adaptive and risk-mitigation strategy in the face of climate variability, but poverty, lack of post-school skills training, and low transition to tertiary-level training are key barriers. Developing markets for credit, inputs and farm output, and preparing migrants for participation in labour markets and self-employment through training can further enhance the impact of migration and build resilience to climate shocks. Due to selfreinforcing poverty traps in poor households, the study recommends targeted public programs that support higher education and technical training. Lastly, chapter 4 examined the role of climate information and early warning in decision-making among farming communities in rural Namibia. Improved climate forecasting has been heralded as an important risk management and mitigation tool in climate-sensitive economic sectors such as agriculture. However, Africa has not reaped the benefits of improved climate forecasting and empirical studies about its impact are scanty. Chapter 4 first discusses access to and utilization of climate information in farm decisionmaking, and then evaluates its impact on dietary diversity, food spending and adaptive capacity of the households using propensity score matching, with a sensitivity analysis for hidden bias. Only half of the farmers had access to climate information and most of them relied primarily on traditional knowledge to make decisions on crop and livestock production. Many of the households without access to climate information also had little knowledge of alternative adaptive strategies. The likelihood of receiving climate information increased with the number of migrants per household, household size, social networks, trust and participation in community decision-making processes, but declined with age. Although male heads were more likely to receive climate information, females headed most of the households. The main sources of information for farmers were radios and peer learning. Respondents expressed a low level of trust in information from available channels and most of them rated the information received as insufficient for decision-making. Although 95% of households owned mobile phones, only 5% received information through them, indicating untapped opportunity of using an ICT platform to share information with farmers. Households with climate information had more diversified diets and significantly higher food spending. These households also engaged in more adaptive strategies, but the scale of adoption was small. Community empowerment through enhanced access to extension services, information on alternative adaptive choices, and the development of markets, rural communication and transport infrastructure are prerequisites to access to and effective utilization of improved climate forecast information for successful adaptation.

Asthma is the leading chronic illness in children in the United States. Since children in the U.S. spend a majority of their time indoors there is an increased need to understand key sources of daily asthma triggers in the home. Bacterial endotoxin, dust mite allergens and β-D-glucan have been shown to be potent inducers of asthma attacks, and high levels of these allergens in homes can trigger attacks in those with asthma. We aim to better understand the risks to those with asthma that might be associated with evaporative cooler (EC) use in low-income homes. ECs are often promoted because of their low energy consumption and decreased environmental impact compared to central air conditioning (AC). Because of their lower cost, ECs are more widely used in low-income homes. ECs use evaporation to cool the air, which leads to higher indoor relative humidity. This may create an ecological niche for house dust mites in semi-arid climates where they are normally absent. EC sump water also provides an ideal environment for bacteria and fungi to grow, possibly resulting in EC loading the air with more potential asthma triggers than central air conditioning. We sampled low-income homes around Utah county with central air and evaporative cooling and tested them for the presence of dust mite allergens, β-D-glucan and endotoxin. There were significantly higher levels of endotoxins and β-(1→3)-D-glucans in the EC homes compared to the AC homes, with increased odds of dust mite allergen prevalence but not at clinically significant levels. These findings suggest that in semi-arid environments, endotoxin and β-(1→3)-D-glucan levels in homes with evaporative coolers are more elevated than dust mite allergens.

This thesis describes the growth of European olive (Olea europaea L.) at three different trial sites located near Laverton, in the north-eastern Goldfields region of Western Australia. The local region comprises part ofthe rangelands area of Australia and has a semi-arid climate. The initial reason for planting olives was indirectly related to the rapid decrease in the local population and the economic downturn that resulted within that community during the late 1990's. This prompted an investigation into other possibilities for economic diversity for remote communities such as Laverton, which are located in the rangelands area of Australia. In Australia, much of the southern and eastern areas of the country have similar climate to traditional olive growing areas in Europe. [n the rangelands however, the environment is different to most other areas in the world where olive trees are grown and there is a notable absence of a commercial olive industry. Whilst locally, individual trees were also observed to be growing well and fruiting abundantly, it is not known whether it is possible to grow olive trees successfully on a commercial scale. Two preliminary trials were established in an ad-hoc manner, to examine whether olive trees could be grown successfully in the rangelands environment. Eighty-eight trees of 5 different cultivars were planted on a shallow, clay soil profile at the first trial site. Ninety-eight trees of 11 different cultivar were planted on a deep sand soil profile at the second site. Higher mortality rate occurred at the first site, with most tree deaths being recorded in the first two years. Peak growth of branch tips occurred during the spring-summer seasons at both sites. Differences in trial design and timing of planting prevented statistical comparison of growth performance between sites however.A third olive trial, consisting of 3 olive groves was established according to randomised design. In the north and middle groves, 54 trees of 3 different cultivar were planted on a deep alluvial soil profile. In the south grove, 53 trees of 3 different cultivar were planted on a shallow clay soil profile. High mortality rates were recorded at all 3 groves during the first year, as a result of high salinity levels in irrigation water during the establishment period. Overall, most tree mortality was recorded at the south grove. Significantly higher growth performance occurred within the deeper alluvial soil profile at the north and middle groves, compared to the shallow clay soil profile in the south grove. Negligible olive fruit production occurred at the first site. At the second site, small quantities of olive fruit were produced during some seasons only. No olive fruit production occurred at any grove at the randomized site. Successful fruit formation appears directly related to tree health, as a function of water supply. Ripening of olive fruit occurred earlier than at other more temperate olive growing areas of Australia. Similar major and trace element deficiencies occurred at all sites, interpreted to be a function of universal alkaline ground-water conditions.This study failed to confirm conclusively, whether European olive could be grown successfully in the semi-arid climate, typical of much of the rangelands area of Australia. As a result of the study however, successful growth in this environment is confirmed to be highly dependent on three factors. Firstly, availability of reliable irrigation waters of sufficient quality. Secondly, choice of suitable soil types. Thirdly, selection of suitable cultivars. Quality of olive oil produced from fruit appears to be influenced by local climatic factors The study also highlighted the issues of land tenure, current management attitudes and level of support within the local community as having a direct and significant impact on the trial.

The objectives of the study were to examine and quantify the relationship between vegetation and the thermal performance of residences in a hot arid environment. Also explored were structural and human influences on residential energy consumption. A primary goal was to determine how much energy savings could be realized through strategic planting of vegetation. This study sought to validate previous simulation and modeling studies that documented annual savings of 2-11% on residential cooling loads. Also examined was whether shrubs and grass could provide a benefit similar to that of trees, assessing the importance of evapotranspiration versus shading. An empirical study was conducted using 105 existing homes in the metropolitan area of Tucson, Arizona. Data included construction type, amenities, living habits of occupants, and energy consumption for heating and cooling over a two-year period. These data were analyzed with a combination of bivariate and multivariate analyses to examine direct correlations between specific variables and energy consumption and the relative importance of each variable. These analyses were unable to document any measurable savings in summer cooling loads as a result of vegetation adjacent to the house, and the presence of trees actually increased the winter heating load by 2%. While trees provide important shading benefits, and can reduce the direct solar gain through the windows of a house, analysis demonstrated that structural and human factors were the most important aspects in residential energy consumption. The size of the house is of primary importance. Houses with evaporative cooling consumed significantly less energy than those with air conditioning. Thermostat settings and habits regarding thermostat operation were the most critical human factors. Occupants who adjusted their thermostats a few degrees cooler in winter and warmer in summer realized measurable savings. Occupants who turned their heating and cooling equipment off when they were not home used significantly less energy for heating and cooling. These factors far outweighed any impact from vegetation on annual energy consumption. While trees should not be considered as a primary means of reducing annual energy consumption, properly placed vegetation can provide aesthetic benefits and increase the thermal comfort of the occupants.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc
The analysis of what controls why rivers are the way they are, and how and why they change is crucial in predicting river dynamics and deriving classification systems that can assist management. A variety of factors control the pattern of fluvial styles in a river system across spatial scales. The geomorphic response of a river to an individual control, such as stream power for example, will vary due to a combination of other contributing factors such as geology and climate.

The building sector is responsible for at least 30% of energy use in most countries worldwide (UN environment, 2017) and around 33% of energy is used by HVAC systems in buildings (Salib & Wood, 2013). As a passive design element, an atrium has the potential to naturally provide heating and cooling, as well as adequate daylight, in arid and temperate climates. Moreover, a naturally ventilated atrium has also proven to be a useful environmental feature in tall building design (Moosavi et al., 2014; Salib & Wood, 2013; Sharples & Bensalem, 2001). This thesis investigated the impact of different configurations of atria on the energy performance of tall office buildings in Tehran. Despite having a rich history of climatic conscious design, the contemporary architecture of the Middle East, and Iran as one of the countries in this region, has witnessed excessive energy use (Holford & Hunt, 2003). The building sector in Iran consumes six times more energy in comparison to that of average European countries (Asgar, 2014a). Moreover, the HVAC sector in Iran uses 61% of the energy in office buildings (IFCO Iranain organization for Fuel Consumption Optimisation in the country, 2010). Providing thermal comfort via passive means is a challenge for tall buildings situated in semi-arid climates and therefore, the atria design for this region is of utmost importance. In this thesis, different types of atria are incorporated into square and rectangular plan tall office buildings and their performances are examined when the buildings are only naturally ventilated throughout the year. The outputs are compared to when HVAC assists the naturally ventilated buildings, and for this, a Dynamic Thermal Simulation (DTS) tool, called Design Builder, has been used. This thesis utilises a Design Science research method. A number of scenarios were simulated with different atria configurations for square and rectangular plan buildings. The outcome of the simulation showed that the atria located on the north and west façades generally perform more efficiently in minimising heat loss. It was also concluded that rectangular plan models generally perform more efficiently than square plan models in terms of lowering energy load and ensuring fewer uncomfortable hours. Amongst the rectangular plan models, the lowest heating and cooling load prototypes had a reduction of 66.65% in energy load. Meanwhile, amongst the square plan models the lowest heating and cooling load prototype had a reduction of 33.71% in energy load.

The critical zone (CZ) is the heterogeneous, near-surface layer of the planet that regulates life-sustaining resources. Previous research has demonstrated that a quantification of the influxes of effective energy and mass transfer (EEMT) to the CZ can predict its structure and function. In this study, we quantify how climate variability in the last 3 decades (1984–2012) has affected water availability and the temporal trends in EEMT. This study takes place in the 1200 km² upper Jemez River basin in northern New Mexico. The analysis of climate, water availability, and EEMT was based on records from two high-elevation SNOTEL stations, PRISM data, catchment-scale discharge, and satellite-derived net primary productivity (MODIS). Results from this study indicated a decreasing trend in water availability, a reduction in forest productivity (4 g C m⁻² per 10 mm of reduction in precipitation), and decreasing EEMT (1.2–1.3 MJ m² decade⁻¹). Although we do not know the timescales of CZ change, these results suggest an upward migration of CZ/ecosystem structure on the order of 100 m decade⁻¹, and that decadal-scale differences in EEMT are similar to the differences between convergent/hydrologically subsidized and planar/divergent landscapes, which have been shown to be very different in vegetation and CZ structure.

This dissertation aims to improve work conditions in office buildings by implementing vertical greenery systems, such as green façades and living walls in semi-arid climates. Since building energy performance is characterized by their electrical systems and thermal exchanges through the building envelope, which is primarily defined by glazing systems in the façades, covering glazed façades with a vegetation layer can play a key role in energy-saving and thermal comfort of buildings. This research evaluates, through the building simulation method, the influence of green façades in thermal comfort, energy consumption, and the heating and cooling loads of an office building in Denver city with a semi-arid climate condition. Furthermore, the psychological and physical performance of vertical gardens as a nature-based solution and, from the perspective of biophilic cities and philosophy, has been assessed through a review of previous studies related to the effect of greenery systems in office buildings. A green façade can also be used as a retrofit option for office building refurbishment. A case study was created as a conceptual model to investigate the influence of green façades and green façade configuration on their performance prediction in semi-arid climates. Additionally, for a better understanding of vertical garden performance in semi-arid regions, simulation case studies in Barcelona with a Mediterranean climate (as articles) and Denver with a semiarid climate as the context of this dissertation were conducted and their results were compared together. The information generated from the simulation of bare and green façade configurations as a double-skin façade was incorporated into qualitative theories trying to predict human comfort aspects in the work environment. For balancing energy-saving measures through green façade refurbishment, four qualitative criteria serve as the foundation for occupant psychological and physical comfort, and their impact on productivity has been established. These criteria are: the requirement for appropriate indoor air temperature, indoor air quality, daylight availability for the psychological performance of users, and perceived control over the façade by a vegetation layer in workplaces. Finally, a new concept of vertical gardens was introduced by integrating biology and technology in architecture, which may solve the issue of weather conditions and water scarcity in some climates, such as semi-arid climates, for implementing vertical gardens.
Esta tesis tiene como objetivo mejorar las condiciones de trabajo en los edificios de oficinas mediante la implementación de sistemas de vegetación vertical, como fachadas verdes y muros vivos en climas semiáridos. Dado que el rendimiento energético de los edificios se caracteriza por sus sistemas eléctricos e intercambios térmicos a través de la envolvente del edificio, que se define principalmente por sistemas de acristalamiento en las fachadas, cubrir las fachadas acristaladas con una capa de vegetación puede desempeñar un papel clave en el ahorro de energía y el confort térmico de los edificios. Esta investigación evalúa, a través del método de simulación de edificios, la influencia de las fachadas verdes en el confort térmico, el consumo de energía y las cargas de calefacción y refrigeración de un edificio de oficinas en la ciudad de Denver con una condición climática semiárida. Además, el desempeño psicológico y físico de los jardines verticales como una solución basada en la naturaleza y, desde la perspectiva de las ciudades biofílicas y la filosofía, ha sido evaluado a través de una revisión de estudios previos relacionados con el efecto de los sistemas de vegetación en edificios de oficinas. Una fachada verde también se puede utilizar como una opción de modernización para la renovación de edificios de oficinas. Se creó un estudio de caso como modelo conceptual para investigar la influencia de las fachadas verdes y la configuración de las fachadas verdes en su predicción de rendimiento en climas semiáridos. Además, para una mejor comprensión del rendimiento del jardín vertical en regiones semiáridas, se llevaron a cabo estudios de caso de simulación en Barcelona con un clima mediterráneo (como artículos) y Denver con un clima semiárido como el contexto de esta disertación y se compararon sus resultados. La información generada a partir de la simulación de configuraciones de fachadas desnudas y verdes como una fachada de doble piel se incorporó a teorías cualitativas que intentan predecir los aspectos de comodidad humana en el entorno de trabajo. Para equilibrar las medidas de ahorro de energía a través de la renovación de fachadas verdes, cuatro criterios cualitativos sirven como base para la comodidad psicológica y física de los ocupantes, y se ha establecido su impacto en la productividad. Estos criterios son: el requisito de una temperatura del aire interior adecuada, la calidad del aire interior, la disponibilidad de luz natural para el desempeño psicológico de los usuarios y el control percibido sobre la fachada por una capa de vegetación en los lugares de trabajo. Finalmente, se introdujo un nuevo concepto de jardines verticales mediante la integración de la biología y la tecnología en la arquitectura, que puede resolver el problema de las condiciones climáticas y la escasez de agua en algunos climas, como los climas semiáridos, para la implementación de jardines verticales.
Patrimoni arquitectònic, civil, urbanístic i rehabilitació de construccions existents

The influence of climate and antecedent moisture conditions on hydrological and biogeochemical fluxes was studied and contrasted in three nested, high-elevation, snowmelt-dominated catchments in the Sierra Nevada, California and one basin-floor, semi-arid catchment in southeastern Arizona. Investigations were completed within a different two-year period at each site, with the second year being climatically different (typically drier) than the first. Spring snowmelt, widespread winter frontal precipitation, and episodic summer rains induce surface water flow in these catchments, though the timing and magnitude of nutrient redistribution among soil and stream compartments varies in each. Surface water flow from spring snowmelt in high-elevation catchments travels through the subsurface or across the surface as direct runoff A more typical process producing surface water flow in semi-arid catchments is flooding during episodic or widespread rainfall. Hydrograph separations at Emerald Lake, Topaz Lake and Marble Fork catchments in Sequoia National Park, California, revealed that the majority of snowmelt flowed through soil before entering the stream in both average and highsnow years. The Emerald Lake watershed had a higher fraction of old water in its outflow in the average accumulation year because of the previous year's high accumulation and longer melt season. A mixing model analysis performed of the upper San Pedro River, Arizona, for wet and dry years showed that summer flood hydrographs were composed mainly of precipitation and surface runoff in both years, though a higher soil-water input occurred in the wetter year and in early season floods in the dry year. Stream and soil water nitrate concentrations were higher during floods in the dry year. Early season floods in the dry year exhibited more variability in stream water nitrate and sulfate, whereas late season flood concentrations reflected a well-mixed system and therefore less variation of these species during flood hydrographs. These data showed that periods of below average precipitation preceding major runoff periods result both in less soil water and solute export during summer floods in basin-floor catchments and less direct snowmelt in high-elevation catchments. Hydrologic and solute export in each catchment, despite their differing geographical locations, responds in similar ways to climate variability.

Thesis (Ph. D. in the Field of Hydrometeorology)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, February 2013.
"February 2013." Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 263-282).
This dissertation describes the role of land surface processes in shaping semi-arid climates, namely those of Southwest Asia and Northwest Africa. The interactions between dust emissions, irrigation, and climate processes are studied and quantified using a regional climate model to perform a series of carefully designed numerical experiments. The performance of the numerical model is tested by comparing simulation results against observations from satellites and other standard platforms. Modeling results indicate significant improvements in simulating mineral aerosols over Southwest Asia. Results suggest that including representations for sub-grid scale wind gustiness as well as mineral aerosols at the boundaries, improve the model skill in simulating the spatial distribution and magnitude of suspended dust. Over Southwest Asia, a large bias in original simulations of surface temperature is eliminated by improving surface albedo, and including mineral aerosols and irrigation. These modifications reduced other biases associated with simulated surface shortwave incident radiation, surface absorbed radiation, and surface vapor pressure. As a result of these improvements, the model now successfully reproduces the climate of Southwest Asia. Another set of numerical experiments is performed over West Africa focusing on the same processes of dust emissions and irrigation. Over the Sahel region, it is found that both mineral aerosols and irrigation have similar effects on the surrounding climate: cooling of surface temperature, increased surface humidity, but no change in rainfall. With dust, a shallower boundary layer redistributes moisture closer to the surface thus offsetting negative temperature effects on the boundary layer moist static energy. With irrigation, a large reduction of the boundary layer height results in less triggering of convective activity and hence mitigates any increase in convective rainfall efficiency due to irrigation. Lastly, a numerical simulation over West Africa that includes simultaneous representations of dust emissions and irrigation is analyzed. Increased soil moisture, vegetation coverage, and dry deposition due to irrigation result in decreased emissions and suspension of dust. This experiment revealed an additional feedback due to irrigation: warming of the surface temperature due to a reduction in mineral aerosols concentration.
by Marc Pace Marcella.
Ph.D.in the Field of Hydrometeorology

Water scarcity is the major challenge that water managers face in semi-arid areas, especially in regions that depend on agriculture for rural livelihood. Climate change is one of the major stresses that is expected to exacerbate water scarcity problems in semi-arid regions. In this study, a risk-based approach was used to assess the climate change impacts on the risk of agricultural water scarcity in semi-arid and snowmelt-dominated river basins that are dependent on agriculture. The Sevier River Basin, located in south central Utah, was used as the case study for this work. An agricultural water deficit index was proposed to represent the basin performance in terms of water supply and agricultural water demand. The basin's natural water supply was estimated using a semi-distributed tank model. FAO AquaCrop model was used to estimate the crop water requirements for major crops in the basin. The risk-based methodology begins using a vulnerability analysis to identify the system sensitivity to climate change. Sensitivity of system response to climatic variability was identified by establishing the climate response function, which is the relationship between basin agricultural water shortage and climate variables (i.e., precipitation and temperatures). The climate response function was then used to predict the basin agricultural water shortage in this century across four time slices using the projections of precipitation and temperature from downscaled and bias corrected GCMs outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results of this study suggested that more natural water supply is expected in the Sevier River Basin due to the expected increase in precipitation during the future off seasons. However, projected temperature increases in the future may increase crop water requirements. It is also found that there is a high risk of unacceptable climate change impacts on agricultural water scarcity in the basin in the period 2025-2049 under RCP4.5 and for 2075-2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario, indicating climate change adaptation actions may be needed.

Namibia is almost entirely semi-arid or arid. With evaporation rates being higher than precipitation rates, farming conditions are extremely adverse. This is exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, namely increased temperature, decreased rainfall and higher rainfall variability, all of which are projected to worsen in the future. More than half of the population is reliant on rain-fed subsistence agriculture for their source of food but these challenging conditions mean that there is widespread food insecurity across the subsistence farming community in Namibia. This leads to a state of vulnerability and dependence on government support in the form of social grants, food aid and remittances from family members in urban areas. The locus for this study is three villages: Omaenene, Okathitukeengombe and Oshihau, in the north-central Omusati region of Namibia. This research investigated local perceptions of climate change vulnerability, farming practices used in other regions that could reduce this vulnerability and finally barriers and enablers to the uptake of new farming practices. These objectives were answered through the use of a systematic literature review and interviews with the local community. Findings revealed that the local population is already experiencing a hotter and drier climate, which has decreased their yield output. Many farmers are concerned about future climatic changes while some are comforted by support from the government or God. In both of these cases, the farmers are vulnerable because they are not currently adapting or planning to adapt to climate change. Although a majority of the farmers claimed that they are willing to try new farming practices, they are inhibited by: limited access to new information, mistrust of new farming practices as well as insufficient labour and resources. Three adaptive farming practices – planting pits, bunds and composting – aimed predominantly at water harvesting, soil conservation and increasing soil quality were selected by the researcher, from a systematic literature review, as appropriate for the village sites. Some of the social and institutional enablers that could be enhanced to promote the uptake of these practices are: i) support from local authorities and possibly enlisting the help of religious and traditional leaders (including building trust within these networks), ii) enhancing information access predominantly through the radio, iii) explaining the severity of climate change and the value of adaptation practices, iv) establishing self-help labour groups and v) the creation of demonstrations sites. In the face of irreversible climate change, this research aims to contribute to empowering local people to adapt their farming practices to the harmful experienced and predicted impacts of climate change and climate variability.

Arid and semi-arid basins in the Western United States (US) have been significantly impacted by human alterations to the water cycle and are among the most susceptible to water stress from urbanization and climate change. The climate of the Western US is projected to change in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Combined with land use/land cover (LULC) change, it can influence both surface and groundwater resources, both of which are a significant source of water in the US. Responding to this challenge requires an improved understanding of how we are vulnerable and the development of strategies for managing future risk. In this dissertation, I explored how hydrology of semi-arid regions responds to LULC and climate change and how hydrologic projections are influenced by the choice and calibration of models. The three main questions I addressed with this dissertation are: 1. Is it important to calibrate models for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes? 2. Do LSMs make reasonable estimates of groundwater recharge in the western US? 3. How might recharge change under projected climate change in the western US? Results from this study suggested that it is important to calibrate the model spatially to analyze the effect of LULC change but not as important for analyzing the relative change in streamflow due to climate change. Our results also highlighted that LSMs have the potential to capture the spatial and temporal patterns as well as seasonality of recharge at large scales. Therefore, LSMs (specifically VIC and Noah) can be used as a tool for estimating current and future recharge in data limited regions. Average annual recharge is projected to increase in about 62% of the region and decrease in about 38% of the western US in future and varies significantly based on location (-50% - +94 for near future and -90% to >100% for far future). Recharge is expected to decrease significantly (-13%) in the South region in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge in both in the near (+5.1%) and far (+9.0%) future. Overall, this study suggested that land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate change significantly impacts hydrology in semi-arid regions. Model choice and model calibrations also influence the hydrological predictions. Hydrological projections from models have associated uncertainty, but still provide valuable information for water managers with long term water management planning.

Global deserts occupy one-third of the Earth's surface and contribute significantly to organic carbon storage, a process at risk in dryland ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to climate-driven ecosystem degradation. The forces controlling desert ecosystem degradation rates are poorly understood, particularly with respect to the relevance of the arid-soil microbiome. Here we document correlations between increasing aridity and soil bacterial and archaeal microbiome composition along arid to hyperarid transects traversing the Atacama Desert, Chile. A meta-analysis reveals that Atacama soil microbiomes exhibit a gradient in composition, are distinct from a broad cross-section of nondesert soils, and yet are similar to three deserts from different continents. Community richness and diversity were significantly positively correlated with soil relative humidity (SoilRH). Phylogenetic composition was strongly correlated with SoilRH, temperature, and electrical conductivity. The strongest and most significant correlations between SoilRH and phylum relative abundance were observed for Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, Planctomycetes, Verrucomicrobia, and Euryarchaeota (Spearman's rank correlation [r(s)] = >0.81; false-discovery rate [q] = <= 0.005), characterized by 10- to 300-fold decreases in the relative abundance of each taxon. In addition, network analysis revealed a deterioration in the density of significant associations between taxa along the arid to hyperarid gradient, a pattern that may compromise the resilience of hyperarid communities because they lack properties associated with communities that are more integrated. In summary, results suggest that arid-soil microbiome stability is sensitive to aridity as demonstrated by decreased community connectivity associated with the transition from the arid class to the hyperarid class and the significant correlations observed between soilRH and both diversity and the relative abundances of key microbial phyla typically dominant in global soils. IMPORTANCE We identify key environmental and geochemical factors that shape the arid soil microbiome along aridity and vegetation gradients spanning over 300 km of the Atacama Desert, Chile. Decreasing average soil relative humidity and increasing temperature explain significant reductions in the diversity and connectivity of these desert soil microbial communities and lead to significant reductions in the abundance of key taxa typically associated with fertile soils. This finding is important because it suggests that predicted climate change-driven increases in aridity may compromise the capacity of the arid-soil microbiome to sustain necessary nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration functions as well as vegetative cover in desert ecosystems, which comprise one-third of the terrestrial biomes on Earth.

Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future.
Kleinvieh ist eine wichtige Lebensgrundlage für die Landbevölkerung in trockenen Regionen. Wie stark wird sich der Klimawandel auf die Tragfähigkeit der Weideflächen auswirken? Wir benutzten hierarchische Modellierung, um das Wachstum von Sträuchern und einjährigen Kräutern, das wichtigste Futter für Ziegen und Schafe, quantitativ auf die Fläche von Landschaften in der östlichen Mittelmeerregion zu dimensionieren. Die Produktivität ohne Beweidung stieg sigmoidal mit dem mittleren Jahresniederschlag. Je trockener die Landschaft, desto stärker verminderte Beweidung die Produktion. An einem Punkt knapp unter der Tragfähigkeit der Vegetation, sank die Produktion stark mit zunehmender Beweidung, weil die Samenproduktion der Kräuter zu gering war. Wir wiederholten die Simulationen mit Niederschlagsverteilungsmustern gemäß zweier gegensätzlicher IPCC-Szenarien. Zukünftige Produktivität und Tragfähigkeit unterschieden sich in den meisten Fällen nicht von Ergebnissen auf Grund von historischer Niederschlagsverteilung. Allerdings war die zukünftige Produktivität in trockenen Habitaten der semiariden und trocken-mediterranen Regionen niedriger. Somit hat auch in Zukunft die Besatzdichte die größere Auswirkung auf die Produktivität dieser trockenen Landschaft als das Klima. "This abstract is provided by the authors, and is for convenience of the users only. The author certifies that the translation faithfully represents the official version in the language of the journal, which is the published Abstract of record and is the only Abstract to be used for reference and citation."

A study was conducted for two growing seasons in northeastern Syria to evaluate the effect of N and P fertilizers and previous crops--i.e. vetch (Vicia sativa L.), barley (Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Beecher) or fallow--on water consumption, development, growth and yields of barley in a semi-arid, Mediterranean-type climate.
The two seasons contrasted in rainfall and temperature which affected soil N, water use and yields. Fertilizer addition and residual P were the major determinants in barley yield increases. Rotation effects were significant only when fertilizers were added. Fallowing was an inefficient way of storing water, but stored water was used most efficiently by subsequent barley crops when fertilized.
Fertilizers did not increase total evapotranspiration. Water use efficiency was related to dry matter production at stem elongation (DMse). Grain weight was a stable component of grain yields. Grain number was related to crop growth rates during the three week pre-anthesis period and to DMse, in turn affected by temperature, nutrient and moisture conditions.
Vetch yields were in the order of 2.5 t.ha$ sp{-1}$ in the wetter season (1982/83).
Results showed that substantial barley yield increases can be obtained with innovative crop rotations and appropriate use of fertilizers in semi-arid environments.