Teses / dissertações sobre o tema "Wildfires x Prevention and control"

Representatives of the City of Highland Village expressed concern over the risk of wildfires for their community. Anthropology provides many tools for and examples of disaster assessment of preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation. These tools combined with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can provide a holistic, cultural ecological look at how such a disaster may take place in the city. The project's methods included a detailed survey of preparedness steps which was analyzed using SPSS and also imported into ArcGIS for spatial analysis, and semi-formal, in-depth interviews with residents of the community regarding preparedness, response, and recovery. Residents fell into a middle category of preparedness, with the majority of participants considering or implementing a few recommended preparedness steps. Interview participants expressed respect for and trust of the city and first-responders, as well as a willingness to volunteer their help during response and recovery stages. Finally the American Community Survey showed that resident socioeconomic vulnerability was considerably low, and no action needed to be taken to advocate for at-risk individuals. Overall, the City of Highland Village showed a high resiliency to disaster. A wildfire likely will not have a major impact on the community as a whole, though the city may reduce the impact even further by informing the public of their risk, clearing natural areas of dead brush, sharing preparedness and evacuation information via social media and newsletters, and planning relief stations for those who may have been impacted.

With the same force that human activities accelerate and amplify change in the biosphere, human agency can play a critical role in influencing future trajectories. However, managing increasingly complex problems is becoming ever more challenging. Among other things, it requires a systemic thinking about the future to anticipate how intertwined drivers may respond to rapid change. This thesis addresses such challenge in the context of contemporary wildfires, which are becoming increasingly complex to manage and a growing global concern. The study adopted a novel approach (Chapter 3) to study wildfire as a complex social-ecological system. The overarching aim is to generate insights into wildfire causes, effects and feedbacks to anticipate future wildfire risk and inform management strategies that can prevent potential impacts. I combine different disciplinary lenses, multiple spatial scales of analysis and participatory methods to analyse wildfire dynamics in the Chiquitania region, located in the Department of Santa Cruz, Bolivia, at the southern edge of Amazonia. This region has a unique tropical dry forest that is susceptible to changes in climate and fire regimes, and a rapidly expanding agricultural frontier. During the recent 2010 drought, large wildfires affected this region intensifying public concern about potential 'mega-fires', particularly given predictions of more extreme seasonality in the future. The first research paper of this thesis (Chapter 4) evaluates the effects of wildfire recurrence on the forests of the Chiquitania using ecological surveys. In addition to significant biomass loss, the observed patterns in species abundance and dominance suggest that the forests respond to recurrent fires through a shift in tree species composition, with fire-tolerant species becoming more dominant. The second research paper (Chapter 5) analyses future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region using fuzzy cognitive mapping. This conceptual modelling approach engaged different actor groups in the region to integrate their perspectives of the regional wildfire dynamics. Semi-structured interviews informed the scenario assumptions which considered failure to respond in time to wildfire risk, as well as implementation of alternative management strategies. Unexpectedly, the fire management strategy showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the fire suppression strategy. The high vulnerability of the agricultural production to wildfire risk has implications for local communities that largely depend on agriculture for subsistence if future climatic conditions become drier. The third research chapter (Chapter 6) uses interviews and focus group discussions to analyse how different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire relate to prevalent wildfire risk strategies in the Chiquitania. The analysis reveals that strategies are in tension between two conflicting narratives and understandings of fire. On this basis, a deliberation process is proposed with the potential to integrate opposing views into more inclusive and collective solutions to manage wildfire risk within a reflexive governance framework. The fourth research paper (Chapter 7) complements the above ground-based studies with a regional assessment of wildfire risk based on remotely sensed land cover, anthropogenic and climatic data. Maximum entropy was used as a probabilistic modelling approach to simulate future wildfire risk scenarios driven by different development trajectories, and assuming changing climatic conditions. Important determinants of wildfire risk were climate, road development, deforestation and density of human settlements. Positive feedbacks between rapid frontier expansion and drought conditions almost doubled potential biomass loss compared to estimates in the 2010 drought. Land used for agriculture and cattle ranching showed particularly high levels of wildfire risk, with serious implications for the subsistence and economy in the Chiquitania if the agricultural frontier is expanded at an accelerated rate. The combination of new findings and modelling tools developed in this thesis are relevant to inform wildfire risk management decisions in the Chiquitania. The timing is fitting as the regional government of Santa Cruz is developing a ten-year programme to address increased wildfire risk at the time of thesis submission, and the recently launched Regional Fire Platform promotes dialogue about possible solutions. More broadly, the approach to study wildfire as a social-ecological system has proven extremely useful to generate insights into different facets of a complex problem that is becoming a major concern in most of Amazonia and globally. This thesis generates important theoretical and practical contributions to the study of social-ecological systems, and provides a concrete example of how increasingly complex problems can be anticipated and managed under climate change and rapidly changing conditions with a more integrated and socially inclusive approach that can inform adaptation decisions for more sustainable futures.

Forest Park, a 5,000 acre heavily-forested park within the city limits of Portland, Oregon was selected as the study area for performing a fire simulation analysis. A well-documented fire swept over a large area of the park in 1951, and provides both direct inputs, including the ignition point, and context for the present day fire simulations. The goal of the research was two fold. First, determine the difference between small area simulations using standard and custom surface fuel models. Second, determine if fire simulation can be an effective tool in assessing fire danger and behavior in a wildland-urban interface environment like Forest Park.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2003.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Veld fires in the mountain regions of the South Western Cape are an annual occurrence. These veld fires occur as a result of human, natural and unknown causes. The Mediteranean weather conditions of the South Western Cape and its typical vegetation are conducive to these fires. Within the mountain regions of the South Western Cape, the use of fire can be advantageous for conservation and forest managers as a tool for fire management e.g. preparation of fire belts, reduction of veld fire occurrence by burning fuel load, rejuvenation of indigenous vegetation and enhancing the water yield of surrounding areas within their management area. Abnormally high incidences and run away veld fires within the management area of conservation and forest managers leads to. the loss of biodiversity, destruction of properties and loss of human lives, and extensive soil erosion. This study aimed at identifying factors contributing towards the occurrence of veld fires in the mountain regions of the South Western Cape, and using GIS to analyse spatially the contributing variables, and to generate seasonal veld fire hazard maps. Potential veld fire occurrence on a seasonal basis was mapped using spatial analyses of variables that are significant to the distribution of veld fires within the study area. Variables used to assess potential veld fire occurrences were: vegetation, slope, population density (human influence), proximity to roads, mean monthly maximum temperatures and mean monthly rainfall. The veld fire hazard maps generated indicated that potential for veld fire occurrence is high in the summer and autumn months, decreasing to a low in the winter and spring seasons. The exception is the Southern Cape sub-region where the possibility of veld fires can be quite high in winter as a result of Fohn-like berg winds. These winds are characterized by sudden increases in temperature and decreases in humidity that may pose severe fire hazards. Reducing and containing veld fires in the mountain regions of the South Western Cape depends on the effective use of the seasonal veld fire hazard maps. The maps can be used to delineate critical zones of veld fire occurrence which can be used for evaluating costeffective control measures and can be implemented to reduce the level of veld fire danger within the management areas of conservation and forest managers. There is a need for a Catchment Management System (CMS) (Richardson, Van Wilgen, Le Maitre, Higgins & Forsyth, 1994) that can be used to generate daily probabilities of veld fire occurrence and to link these to fire-spread models for predicting or simulating expected fire directions and severities or intensities, and educating people about fires and the damage it can do.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Elke jaar kom daar veldbrande in die berggebiede van die Suidwes-Kaap voor. Die oorsake van hierdie veldbrande is van menslike, natuurlike of onbekende oorsprong. Die Mediterreense weersomstandighede en die tipiese plantegroei van die Suidwes-Kaap is ook bevorderlik vir die ontstaan van veldbrande. In die berggebiede van hierdie streek kan die gebruik van vuur egter ook tot voordeel van natuurbewaring en bosbou aangewend word deurdat dit gebruik kan word as 'n metode om die brande te bestuur, soos in die voorbereiding van brandpaaie, in die vermindering van die voorkoms van veldbrande deur vooraf van die brandbare materiale af te brand, in die vernuwing van die inheemse plantegroei en in die verhoging van wateropbrengs in die omliggende gebiede binne die area wat bestuur moet word. 'n Abnormale hoë voorkoms van veldbrande binne die bestuursgebied van bewarings- en bosboubestuurders lei egter tot 'n verlies aan biodiversiteit, die vernietiging van eiendom, 'n verlies aan menselewens en uitgebreide gronderosie. Die doel van hierdie studie was om die faktore wat bydra tot die voorkoms van veldbrande in die berggebiede van die Suidwes-Kaap te identifiseer, om GIS te gebruik om 'n ruimtelike analise van die bydraende veranderlikes te doen en om dan 'n seisoenale veldbrandgevaarkaart saam te stel. Die potensiële voorkoms van veldbrande op 'n seisoenale basis is gekarteer deur gebruik te maak van ruimtelike analises van die veranderlikes van belang in die verspreiding van veldbrande in die studiegebied. Die volgende veranderlikes is gebruik om die potensiële voorkoms van veldbrande te bepaal: plantegroei, helling, bevolkingsdigtheid (invloed van mense), afstand vanaf paaie, gemiddelde maandelikse maksimum temperature en gemiddelde maandelikse reënval. Die veldbrandgevaarkaarte wat ontwikkel is, het aangetoon dat die potensiële voorkoms van veldbrande hoog is in die somer- en herfsmaande en dan afneem tot 'n laagtepunt in die winter en lente. 'n Uitsondering is die Suid-Kaap-substreek waar die moontlikheid van veldbrande selfs in die winter taamlik hoog is as gevolg van Fëhn-tipe bergwinde. Hierdie winde word gekenmerk deur In skielike toename in temperatuur en In afname in humiditeit wat die brandgevaar skerp kan verhoog. Die vermoë om veldbrande in die berggebiede van die Suidwes-Kaap te verminder en te beperk, sal grootliks afhang van die effektiewe gebruik van die seisoenale veldbrandgevaar-kaarte. Die kaarte kan gebruik word vir die afbakening van kritieke sones vir die voorkoms van veldbrande wat dan gebruik kan word vir die evaluering van koste-effektiewe beheermaatreëls. Hierdie kaarte kan dan geïmplementeer word om die vlakke van veldbrandgevaar binne die gebiede waarvoor bewarings- en bosboubestuurders verantwoordelik is, te verminder. Daar is In behoefte aan In opvanggebiedbestuurstelsel (OGB) (Richardson, Van Wilgen, Le Maitre, Higgins & Forsyth 1994) wat gebruik kan word om daaglikse waarskynlikhede vir die voorkoms van veldbrande te genereer. Dit kan gekoppel word aan brandverspreidingsmodelle wat die verwagte rigting van brandverspreiding, asook die ems of intensiteit daarvan, kan voorspelof simuleer. Die publiek moet ook ingelig word oor veldbrande en die skade wat daardeur aangerig kan word.

There is evidence of a relationship between pain and associated symptoms, specifically constipation and dyspnea, and quality of life. Literature supports that endstage lung cancer patients suffer more symptoms than those with other types of cancers, and the course of treatment is primarily palliative, as many of these diagnosed patients cannot be cured. The purpose of this secondary analysis of data was to evaluate the relationships between pain and other common symptoms in end stage lung cancer patients in hospice care, and the relationships among pain, dyspnea, constipation and quality of life. The study sample included fifty lung cancer patients admitted to a hospice program, reporting pain. A series of Pearson’s correlations were used to analyze relationships between the variables pain intensity, pain distress, dyspnea intensity, dyspnea distress, constipation intensity and the relationships of these variables with quality of life. The results showed positive significant correlations between pain intensity and pain distress (r = .44, p = .002), dyspnea intensity and dyspnea distress (r = .47, p = .001), and constipation intensity and quality of life (r = -.57, p = .013). Pain and the relief of pain have been studied extensively in cancer patients, yet little research has been done in the way of side effects of opioid use, specifically constipation. This study reinforces to vi nursing the importance of a thorough assessment upon admission to hospice, and at each subsequent nursing visit, which includes a bowel habit history, current medications in use, potential risk for developing constipation and management of constipation once it is present. Hospice patients with lung cancer are reporting a decrease in quality of life secondary to constipation. Prevention or rapid alleviation of this symptom will provide comfort and allow the patient to focus on important end of life tasks.

Over the past century in the western United States, warming has produced larger and more severe wildfires than previously recorded. General circulation models and their ensembles project continued increases in temperature and the proportion of precipitation falling as rain. Warmer and wetter conditions may change forest successional trajectories by modifying rates of vegetation establishment, competition, growth, reproduction, and mortality. Many questions remain regarding how these changes will occur across landscapes and how disturbances, such as wildfire, may interact with changes to climate and vegetation. Forest management is used to proactively modify forest structure and composition to improve fire resilience. Yet, research is needed to assess how to best utilize mechanical fuel reduction and prescribed fire at the landscape scale. Human communities also exist within these landscapes, and decisions regarding how to manage forests must carefully consider how management will affect such communities.

In this work, I analyzed three aspects of forest management at large spatiotemporal scales: (1) climate effects on forest composition and wildfire activity; (2) efficacy of fuel management strategies toward reducing wildfire spread and severity; and, (3) local resident perspectives on forest management. Using a forest landscape model, simulations of forest dynamics were used to investigate relationships among climate, wildfire, and topography with long-term changes in biomass for a fire-prone dry-conifer landscape in eastern Oregon, United States. I compared the effectiveness of fuel treatment strategies for reducing wildfire under both contemporary and extreme weather. Fuel treatment scenarios included “business as usual” and strategies that increased the area treated with harvest and prescribed fire, and all strategies were compared by distributing them across the landscape and by concentrating them in areas at the greatest risk for high-severity wildfire. To investigate local community preferences for forest management, I used focus groups, interviews, and questionnaires. Through open-ended questions and a public participation geographic information systems (PPGIS) mapping exercise, local residents expressed their views on fuels reduction treatments by commercial and non-commercial harvest and prescribed fire. Emergent themes were used to inform alternative management scenarios to explore the usefulness of using PPGIS to generate modeling inputs. Scenarios ranged from restoration-only treatments to short-rotation commercial harvest.

Under climate change, wildfire was more frequent, more expansive, and more severe, and ponderosa pine expanded its range into existing shrublands and high-elevation zones. There was a near-complete loss of native high-elevation tree species, such as Engelmann spruce and whitebark pine. Loss of these species were most strongly linked to burn frequency; this effect was greatest at high elevations and on steep slopes.

Fuel reduction was effective at reducing wildfire spread and severity compared to unmanaged landscapes. Spatially optimizing mechanical removal of trees in areas at risk for high-severity wildfire was equally effective as distributing tree removal across the landscape. Tripling the annual area of prescribed burns was needed to affect landscape-level wildfire spread and severity, and distributing prescribed burns across the study area was more effective than concentrating fires in high-risk areas.

Focus group participants generally approved of all types of forest management and agreed that all areas should be managed with the “appropriate” type of treatment for each forest stand, and that decisions about management should be made by “experts.” However, there was disagreement related to who the “experts” are and how much public input should be included in the decision making process. Degree of trust in land management agencies contributed to polarized views about who the primary decision makers and what the focus of management should be. While most participants agreed that prescribed fire was a useful tool for preventing wildfire spread and severity, many expressed reservations about its use.

I conclude that forest management can be used to reduce wildfire activity in dry-mixed conifer forests and that spatially optimizing mechanical treatments in high-risk areas can be a useful tool for reducing the cost and ecological impact associated with harvest operations. While reducing the severity and spread of wildfire may slow some long-term species shifts, high sub-alpine tree mortality occurred under all climate and fuel treatment scenarios. Thus, while forest management may prolong the existence of sub-alpine forests, shifts in temperature, precipitation, and wildfire may overtake management within this century. The use of PPGIS was useful for delineating the range of forest management preferences within the local community, for identifying areas of agreement among residents who have otherwise polarized views, and for generating modeling inputs that reflect views that may not be obtained through extant official channels for public participation. Because the local community has concerns about the use of prescribed fire, more education and outreach is needed. This may increase public acceptance of the amounts of prescribed fire needed to modify wildfire trajectories under future climate conditions.

Thesis (MSc (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006.
A multitude of unique fauna and flora exist within the Western Cape of South Africa. Fire plays an intricate role in the conservation and extinction of many of these species. It is therefore imperative to understand this delicate relationship in order to help preserve the province’s uniquely balanced ecosystem. The Western Cape Nature Conservation Board (WCNCB) expressed the need for a system that would allow reserve managers to produce basic fire frequency and veld age maps with considerable ease. These maps are needed for intelligent decisionmaking regarding the management of veldfires. Information concerning vegetation and historical veldfires in the Western Cape, collected over a period of 50 years exist in tabular format in databases of the WCNCB. Some of these tables contain spatial information elements, such as areas affected by fires. Tabular data with spatial elements can be converted to a geographical information system (GIS) format, extracting value previously shielded from the user. Using GIS techniques and the programming language Avenue, two tools with powerful decision-making qualities were created to extract value from these datasets. One tool shows the fire history of a specified area as a digital map. This map shows areas with varying occurrences of fires over time, thereby highlighting hot spots within the specified location. The ability to view various fire scar datasets spatially over a specified period, as opposed to records in a table, enables the user to understand the extent to which areas have been repeatedly exposed to fire and quickly identify areas most affected. The second tool shows vegetation age in a similar fashion, allowing the user to see the current spatial distribution of vegetation and its age. Knowledge about the age of indigenous vegetation, such as fynbos, in a predetermined area, facilitates the reserve manager in decisions related to block burning. This is an accepted practise in areas where vegetation requires fire to stimulate germination. Both tools provide decisionmaking support to reserve managers regarding the most suitable course of action in terms of the implementation of a proactive or passive approach towards fires. This study satisfies the needs of the WCNCB by exploring the hidden value within their datasets. GIS supported by the programming language, Avenue, was successfully utilised in the development of a system capable of extracting information from current datasets to support reserve managers in their critical decision-making processes.

Práca sa zaoberá problematikou kontroly a blokovania externých zariadení v operačnom systéme Apple macOS za účelom ochrany pred únikom citlivých dát. Implementované riešenie ukazuje zvolené prístupy pre blokovanie externých a cloudových diskov. Pre blokovanie USB diskov bol použitý DiskAbitration framework, čo je najvodnejšie riešenie tohto typu úlohy. Avšak cloudové disky sú v skutočnosti synchronizované zložky a úlohu nehrajú ovládače ani strom pripojených zariadení. Ku kontrole operácií v cloudových diskoch bol použitý Endpoint Security framework. Aktuálne podporovaní cloudový poskytovatelia sú iCloud a Dropbox a prístup k nim môže byť obmedzený úplne alebo iba na čítanie. Schopnosť synchronizácie vzdialenýh zmien bola zachovaná avšak v prípade Dropboxu si to žiada nepoužívať ich aplikáciu na správu súborov.

In this dissertation, I combined a scenario-based, standard-response optimization model with a stochastic simulation model to improve the efficiency of the deployment of initial attack firefighting resources on wildland fires in California and the Republic of Korea. The optimization model minimizes the expected number of fires that do not receive a standard response���defined as the number of resources by type that must arrive at the fire within a specified time limit���subject to budget and station capacity constraints and uncertainty about the daily number and location of fires. The simulation model produces a set of fire scenarios in which a combination of fire count, fire locations, fire ignition times, and fire behavior occur. Compared with the current deployment, the deployment obtained with optimization shifts resources from the planning unit with the highest fire load to the planning unit with the highest standard response requirements. Resource deployments that result from relaxing constraints on station capacity achieve greater containment success by encouraging consolidation of resources into stations with high dispatch frequency, thus increasing the probability of resource availability on high fire count days. I extended the standard response framework to examine how a policy priority influences the optimal spatial allocation and performance of initial attack resources. I found that the policy goal of a fire manager changes the optimal spatial allocation of initial attack firefighting resources on a heterogeneous landscape, especially, for the socio-economic value of a potential fire location. Furthermore, I investigated the tradeoff between the number of firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts mitigating the probability of human-made fires in the Republic of Korea where most fires are caused by human activities. I found that fire ignition prevention is as cost-effective as initial attack resources given the current budget in the Republic of Korea on reducing the expected number of fires not receiving the standard response. From the comparison of the California and Republic of Korea cases, I can identify "rules of thumb" to be followed when allocating IA resources in particular ecological and policy settings.
Graduation date: 2013

Wildfires destroy large tracts of veld and forest land every year in South Africa. These fires can be devastating, resulting in loss of human lives, the destruction of property and the loss of income, for example the forest fire in the Sabie district in Mpumalanga in 2007 which destroyed about 7% of South Africa’s forested areas. There are frequently legal disputes with respect to the origin of wildfires, the extent of the fire and the land cover destroyed by the fires. The forensic capabilities of remote sensing in detecting and analysing post-wildfire characteristics have become an important contribution towards solving such legal disputes and in understanding wildfire characteristics. These post fire products can be used as evidence in court cases. Most of the time those court cases came up a few years after the fire event. By then, little or no evidence can be found on the terrain where the fire was. Remote sensing archives provide a reliable source of data that can be used to analyse these events after these long intervals. The objective of this project is to highlight the methods used to generate these post-wildfire analysis products.
Environmental Sciences
M. Sc. (Environmental Science)

Natural disasters give rise to loss of life, property (including homes, industry and livelihood) and environmental values and may be increasing with the impacts of climate change. Bushfires are a natural part of the Australian landscape and the ecology of the range of biota found within the various landscapes. They pose significant risks to people and property and require increasing demands for management in the face of these risks. Bushfires (also known as wildland fires) can be highly complex both spatially and temporally within the landscape. Attempts to better explain such events has given rise to a range of fire behaviour models to quantify fire characteristics such as rate of spread, fire line intensity, flame heights and spotting distances. However, there is a need to develop clear criteria when applying these models in land use planning and construction practice for bushfire protection. In Australia, a number of empirical models have been developed to quantify bushfire behaviour. These models have limitations, both in their application and in their capacity to draw upon data with which to utilise them. Two such models are used in the current study, being the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Meter (Mark 5) and the more recent Dry Eucalypt Forest Fire Model, and both have been used to develop design bushfire(dimensions and characteristics of a bushfire in a regional setting) conditions for the state of New South Wales (NSW). These models use different input parameters, as well as different intermediate parameters to describe fire behaviour. In addition, the study utilises and extends the forest fire danger index (FFDI) andKeetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) data to all 21 NSW fire weather districts. It also provides a new database for daily fuel moisture content (FMC). By using case studies that show 'validation' of methodological approaches, it can be confirmed that suitable extreme value assessment statistical techniques can be applied to the outputs of the identified models for the purposes of determining design bushfires. The study also seeks to give greater understanding of the frequency and shifts in the seasonality of fire weather, and changes in bushfire severity as consequences of climate change. A technique of generalised extreme value analysis based on moving data window to detect the impact of climate change on recurrence values of various indices has been developed. The evaluation of trends in fire weather through various metrics for FFDI, FMC and KBDI have revealed that a number of districts in NSW exhibit pronounced shifts at the extreme arising from climate change. However, the role of the El Nino Southern Oscillation does not appear to play a major role in these shifts over the long term. The current investigations have provided significant improvements on previous investigations such as improved datasets providing wider representation of all the NSW fire weather districts and covering a longer period of time; the use of new metrics, including the use of the GEV assessment through a moving period approach; the metrics being applied to fire weather parameters other than FFDI; and, trends in fire weather parameters being considered in conjunction with other global factors. The methodology and the technique developed in the current study have the potential to be utilised in many parts of the world for the development of design conditions and to study the impact of the climate change on the local fire weather conditions.

This research sought to discover and recommend proactive strategies to strengthen and improve human safety and well-being in a changing climate of natural hazards. This thesis documents the rationale, process and outcomes of that research. People’s ability to navigate their daily lives within an environment of worsening natural hazards is an adaptive public health and safety priority - given the predicted global increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events. There is an urgent need to strengthen and normalise people’s preparedness behaviour, and to connect it with an unequivocal understanding of the benefits of such changes. Enhancing people's adaptive responses will help to avoid, or at least minimise, associated human trauma and tragedy. That is the aim of this research. Achieving positive, adaptive change requires proactive medium to longer term public policy planning and implementation of strategies leading to considered, appropriate response choices and desired protective behaviour as social norms. Demands upon individuals, families, communities and workplaces are high in the complexity of 21st century life: adapting to narrow the bushfire (or other natural hazard) awareness-preparedness gap – to become fire-fit – requires a re-ordering of priorities so that fire-fitness becomes a societal-wide, integrated routine – as routine as buying groceries or fuelling a car. This predominantly pragmatic qualitative research used the socio-cognitive Protection Motivation Theory (described by Rogers in 1975) in the context of bushfire natural hazards with the ultimate aim of reducing human morbidity and mortality, and concurrently promoting positive physical and psychological capacity. The study considered data across and within two demographic groups – emergency responders and the owners of any kind and any number of animals. It sought to 1. determine and discover how casualties to life, property and the environment, including the physical and psychological health of people, their microclimates and livelihoods, can be reduced and minimised while building a culture of preparedness as an integral part of daily life, and 2. help negate wider perceptions of preparedness as a difficult, time-consuming task which although on nearly everyone’s ‘to do’ list is frequently not prioritised. The major qualitative phase (phase 1) was followed by a minor quantitative phase (phase 2) in the form of a pilot survey (discussed in Chapter 7) that investigated farmers’ bushfire experiences and management strategies. The pilot survey was conducted with a view to determining topics requiring further research, as well as identifying knowledge and learning translatable to novice landowners. This thesis is presented as a series of six papers – four published (P1-P4), two submitted (SP1, SP2). Each paper addresses particular research questions, noted in the box at the beginning of each chapter, and each published paper is followed by a connecting narrative designed to convey the momentum, flow and logic of the research progression. The order of the papers presented in the thesis follows the chronology of the research. Paper 1 critically explores the literature and investigates Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) as a framework. Paper 2 provides an overview of the qualitative data and identifies the focus for the next stage of analysis. Paper 3 discusses public policy and leads in to Paper 4 which proposes a number of innovative and practical strategies to help improve fire-fitness for individuals and across communities. The following two papers supplement and complement the four published papers. SP1 contains more detail concerning public policy initiatives. SP2 is essentially P1 in practice and demonstrates how PMT can be usefully applied to achieve the aim of the research - to reduce human morbidity and mortality in natural hazard events. Thus, the reader is encouraged to read SP1 following P3, and SP2 following P4. Readers’ attention is drawn particularly to the Results, Interpretative Analysis and Discussion sections in SP1 and SP2, where additional information on policy and how PMT was expanded and applied may be found. Journal selection for the published papers was actively – and flexibly - considered from the beginning of the project with the selection of suitable journals narrowing as the focus of the research itself became more specific. Table 1, Journal selection and chronology of publication, details this process. The research results indicate desired outcomes are indeed achievable by engaging a bold, innovative willingness to move beyond standard conservatism in the sector, and demonstrating a commitment to trial and evaluate recommendations. The wellbeing and safety of people in natural hazards is increasingly a public health issue. This thesis proposes proactive initiatives that affirmatively and assertively respond to meeting the parallel escalation of the inherent danger of natural hazards in a changing climate without alienating public sentiment. It also identifies the need for further research to fill a gaping omission in the literature regarding cropland fires - with respect to crop types and placement, how different crops ‘carry’ a fire, and if firebreaks can be better utilised as a fire management tool. A summary of the strategies developed from the results of this research is presented in Table 4, Strategies to help achieve fire-fitness. These are described in more detail in papers P3, P4, SP1 and SP2. In reconstructing the ‘costs’ and ‘rewards’ described in an expanded Protection Motivation Theory to favour an overall net gain, and by providing ways to establish fire-fitness as a desirable and attainable social norm, this research makes a practical and timely contribution to future public policy decision-making in the global ‘new reality’ of natural hazards.

Recurrent wildfires strongly affect the distribution and composition of biotic communities, and can also be highly destructive to human populations and infrastructure. Consequently, a number of fire management approaches (such as fire suppression, prescribed burning and selective clearing) are routinely implemented in many countries, with the aim of reducing the risk of catastrophic fires. While some of these approaches are known to be incompatible with the persistence of some plant and animal species, the extent to which inappropriate fire management is a threatening process for frog populations is largely unknown. Any effects of fire on frog populations that do occur are likely to be complex, because fire both kills individual animals, and may also influence frog movement through terrestrial locations (i.e. migration and dispersal). Further research on this topic would also be useful from a scientific perspective, in that frog populations can serve as interesting test cases for the investigation of fire ecology theories, which have typically been constructed for other animal taxa. In this thesis, I address these research gaps on frog responses to fire, through a program of research undertaken in Booderee National Park, southeastern Australia. The resulting papers are arranged by increasing spatial scale, moving from responses of frog assemblages at breeding ponds (chapters I & 2), to frog behavior in the pond margin (chapter 3), to terrestrial movements at the landscape scale (chapter 4). In combination, these studies constitute a detailed investigation of the effects of recurrent fire on frog populations. This body of research represents an in-depth assessment of the viability of ecological theory for explaining variation in frog assemblages following fire.

Climate exerts considerable control on wildfire regimes, and climate and wildfire are both major drivers of forest growth and succession in interior Northwest forests. Estimating potential response of these landscapes to anticipated changes in climate helps researchers and land managers understand and mitigate impacts of climate change on important ecological and economic resources. Spatially explicit, mechanistic computer simulation models are powerful tools that permit researchers to incorporate climate and disturbance events along with vegetation physiology and phenology to explore complex potential effects of climate change over wide spatial and temporal scales. In this thesis, I used the simulation model FireBGCv2 to characterize potential response of fire, vegetation, and landscape dynamics to a range of possible future climate and fire management scenarios. The simulation landscape (~43,000 hectares) is part of Deschutes National Forest, which is located at the interface of maritime and continental climates and is known for its beauty and ecological diversity. Simulation scenarios included all combinations of +0��C, +3��C, and +6��C of warming; +10%, ��0%, and -10% historical precipitation; and 10% and 90% fire suppression, and were run for 500 years. To characterize fire dynamics, I investigated how mean fire frequency, intensity, and fuel loadings changed over time in all scenarios, and how fire and tree mortality interacted over time. To explore vegetation and landscape dynamics, I described the distribution and spatial arrangement of vegetation types and forest successional stages on the landscape, and used a nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) ordination to holistically evaluate overall similarity of composition, structure, and landscape pattern among all simulation scenarios over time. Changes in precipitation had little effect on fire characteristics or vegetation and landscape characteristics, indicating that simulated precipitation changes were not sufficient to significantly affect vegetation moisture stress or fire behavior on this landscape. Current heavy fuel loads controlled early fire dynamics, with high mean fire intensities occurring early in all simulations. Increases in fire frequency accompanied all temperature increases, leading to decreasing fuel loads and fire intensities over time in warming scenarios. With no increase in temperature or in fire frequency, high fire intensities and heavier fuel loads were sustained. Over time, more fire associated with warming or less fire suppression increased the percentage of the landscape occupied by non-forest and fire-sensitive early seral forest successional stages, which tended to increase the percentage of fire area burning at high severity (in terms of tree mortality). This fire-vegetation relationship may reflect a return to a more historical range of conditions on this landscape. Higher temperatures and fire frequency led to significant spatial migration of forest types across the landscape, with communities at the highest and lowest elevations particularly affected. Warming led to an upslope shift of warm mixed conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, severely contracting (under 3�� of warming) or eliminating (under 6�� of warming) area dominated by mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) and cool, wet conifer forest in the high western portion of the landscape. In lower elevations, warming and fire together contributed to significant expansion of open (<10% tree canopy cover) forest and grass- and shrubland. The compositional changes and spatial shifts simulated in the warming scenarios suggest that climate change is likely to significantly affect forests on this landscape. Warming and associated fire also tended to increase heterogeneity of forest structural stages and landscape pattern, resulting in a more diverse distribution of structural stages, especially in lower elevations, and a more divided landscape of smaller forest stands. The NMS ordination emphasized the dissimilarity between the severe +6�� scenarios and the other two temperature scenarios. The +0�� and +3�� scenarios differed from each other in composition (mainly because cool forest was lost in the +3�� scenarios), but within a given level of fire suppression they remained remarkably similar in terms of overall composition, structure, and landscape pattern, while the +6�� scenarios separated noticeably from them. Such decisive differences suggest that under the simulated ranges of precipitation and fire suppression, the interval between 3 and 6 degrees of warming on this landscape may capture an ecological threshold, or tipping point. Additional simulation research that incorporates (for example) management actions, insects and pathogens, and a wider array of precipitation scenarios could help illuminate more clearly the possible range of future landscape conditions. Still, these results provide a glimpse of potential divergent outcomes on this important landscape under possible future climates, and suggest that these forests will undergo considerable changes from both historical and current conditions in response to higher temperatures expected in this area. Some changes may be inevitable with warming, such as the upslope shift of warm forest types, but careful planning for fire and fuels management might allow land managers to modulate fire behavior and steer vegetation dynamics toward the most desirable outcome possible.
Graduation date: 2013