Teses / dissertações sobre o tema "Statistiques temporelles"
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Mercier, Ludovic. "Séries temporelles chaotiques appliquées à la finance problèmes statistiques et algorithmiques". Paris 9, 1998. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=1998PA090049.
Texto completo da fonteOllier, Sébastien. "Des outils pour l'intégration des contraintes spatiales, temporelles et évolutives en analyse des données écologiques". Lyon 1, 2004. http://www.theses.fr/2004LYO10293.
Texto completo da fonteHamrouni-Chtourou, Sameh. "Approches variationnelles statistiques spatio-temporelles pour l'analyse quantitative de la perfusion myocardique en IRM". Phd thesis, Institut National des Télécommunications, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00814577.
Texto completo da fonteHamrouni-Chtourou, Sameh. "Approches variationnelles statistiques spatio-temporelles pour l'analyse quantitative de la perfusion myocardique en IRM". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Evry, Institut national des télécommunications, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012TELE0024.
Texto completo da fonteQuantitative assessment of moycardium perfusion, i.e. computation of perfusion parameters which are then confronted to normative values, is a key issue for the diagnosis, therapy planning and monitoring of ischemic cardiomyopathies --the leading cause of death in Western countries. Within the last decade, perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (p-MRI) has emerged as a reference modality for reliably assessing myocardial perfusion in a noninvasive and accurate way. In p-MRI acquisitions, short-axis image sequences are captured at multiple slice levels along the long-axis of the heart during the transit of a vascular contrast agent through the cardiac chambers and muscle. Resulting p-MRI exams exhibit high nonlinear contrast variations and complex cardio-thoracic motions. Perfusion assessment is then faced with the complex problems of non rigid registration and segmentation of cardiac structures in p-MRI exams. The objective of this thesis is enabling an automated quantitative computer-aided diagnosis tool for first pass cardiac perfusion MRI, comprising four processing steps: -1.automated cardiac region of interest extraction; -2.non rigid registration of cardio-thoracic motions throughout the whole sequence; -3.cardiac boundaries segmentation; -4.quantification of myocardial perfusion. The answers we give to the various challenges identified in each step are based on a common idea: investigating information related to the kinematics of contrast agent transit in the tissues for discriminating the anatomical structures and driving the alignment process. This latter is the main work of this thesis. Non rigid image registration methods based on the optimization of information measures provide versatile solutions for robustly aligning medical data. Their usual application setting is the alignment of image pairs by statistically matching luminance distributions, handled using marginal and joint probability densities estimated via kernel techniques. Though efficient for joint densities exhibiting well-separated clusters or reducible to simple mixtures, these approaches reach their limits for nonlinear mixtures where pixelwise luminance appears to be a too coarse feature for allowing unambiguous statistical decisions, and for mono-modal with nonlinear variations and multi-modal data. This thesis presents a unified mathematical model for the information-theoretic multi-feature/multi-view non rigid registration, addressing the identified challenges : (i) simultaneous registration of the whole p-MRI exam, using a natural or synthetic atlas generated as a motion-free exam depicting the transit of the vascular contrast agent through cardiac structures and using local contrast enhancement curves as a feature set; (ii) can be easily generalized to richer feature spaces combining radiometric and geometric information. The resulting model is based on novel consistent k-nearest neighbors estimators of information measures in high dimension, for both classical Shannon and generalized Ali-Silvey frameworks. We study their variational optimization by deriving under closed-form their gradient flows over finite and infinite dimensional smooth transform spaces, and by proposing computationally efficient gradient descent schemas. The resulting generic theoretical framework is applied to the groupwise alignment of cardiac p-MRI exams, and its performances, in terms of accuracy and robustness, are evaluated in an experimental qualitative and quantitative protocol
Achouch, Ayman. "Analyse économétrique des prix des métaux : une application multivariée des méthodes statistiques aux séries temporelles". Montpellier 1, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998MON10025.
Texto completo da fonteMontagne, Marc. "Relations statistiques et temporelles entre structures magnétiques et structures brillantes de petite échelle dans la photosphère solaire". Toulouse 3, 1996. http://www.theses.fr/1996TOU30237.
Texto completo da fonteMasson, Arnaud. "Utilisation de tests bases sur des statistiques d'ordre supérieur dans l'étude de séries temporelles applications aux plasmas spatiaux". Paris 6, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001PA066165.
Texto completo da fonteMangeas, Morgan. "Propriétés statistiques des modèles paramétriques non-linéaires de prévisions de séries temporelles : application aux réseaux de neurones à propagation directe". Paris 1, 1996. http://www.theses.fr/1996PA010076.
Texto completo da fonteKhaleghi, Azadeh. "Sur quelques problèmes non-supervisés impliquant des séries temporelles hautement dépendantes". Phd thesis, Université des Sciences et Technologie de Lille - Lille I, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00920333.
Texto completo da fonteMrani, Alaoui Rim. "Conception d'un module de diagnostic à base de suites de bandes temporelles en vue de la supervision des procédés énergétiques : application en ligne à un générateur de vapeur". Lille 1, 2004. http://www.theses.fr/2004LIL10096.
Texto completo da fonteHarlé, Flore. "Détection de ruptures multiples dans des séries temporelles multivariées : application à l'inférence de réseaux de dépendance". Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016GREAT043/document.
Texto completo da fonteThis thesis presents a method for the multiple change-points detection in multivariate time series, and exploits the results to estimate the relationships between the components of the system. The originality of the model, called the Bernoulli Detector, relies on the combination of a local statistics from a robust test, based on the computation of ranks, with a global Bayesian framework. This non parametric model does not require strong hypothesis on the distribution of the observations. It is applicable without modification on gaussian data as well as data corrupted by outliers. The detection of a single change-point is controlled even for small samples. In a multivariate context, a term is introduced to model the dependencies between the changes, assuming that if two components are connected, the events occurring in the first one tend to affect the second one instantaneously. Thanks to this flexible model, the segmentation is sensitive to common changes shared by several signals but also to isolated changes occurring in a single signal. The method is compared with other solutions of the literature, especially on real datasets of electrical household consumption and genomic measurements. These experiments enhance the interest of the model for the detection of change-points in independent, conditionally independent or fully connected signals. The synchronization of the change-points within the time series is finally exploited in order to estimate the relationships between the variables, with the Bayesian network formalism. By adapting the score function of a structure learning method, it is checked that the independency model that describes the system can be partly retrieved through the information given by the change-points, estimated by the Bernoulli Detector
Dilmi, Mohamed Djallel. "Méthodes de classification des séries temporelles : application à un réseau de pluviomètres". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Sorbonne université, 2019. https://accesdistant.sorbonne-universite.fr/login?url=https://theses-intra.sorbonne-universite.fr/2019SORUS087.pdf.
Texto completo da fonteThe impact of climat change on the temporal evolution of precipitation as well as the impact of the Parisian heat island on the spatial distribution of précipitation motivate studying the varaibility of the water cycle on a small scale on île-de-france. one way to analyse this varaibility using the data from a rain gauge network is to perform a clustring on time series measured by this network. In this thesis, we have explored two approaches for time series clustring : for the first approach based on the description of series by characteristics, an algorithm for selecting characteristics based on genetic algorithms and topological maps has been proposed. for the second approach based on shape comparaison, a measure of dissimilarity (iterative downscaling time warping) was developed to compare two rainfall time series. Then the limits of the two approaches were discuddes followed by a proposition of a mixed approach that combine the advantages of each approach. The approach was first applied to the evaluation of spatial variability of precipitation on île-de-france. For the evaluation of the temporal variability of the precpitation, a clustring on the precipitation events observed by a station was carried out then extended on the whole rain gauge network. The application on the historical series of Paris-Montsouris (1873-2015) makes it possible to automatically discriminate "remarkable" years from a meteorological point of view
Breton, Marc. "Application de méthodes de classification par séries temporelles au diagnostic médical et à la détection de changements statistiques et étude de la robustesse". Ecole Centrale de Lille, 2004. http://www.theses.fr/2004ECLI0005.
Texto completo da fonteBriche, Élodie. "Changement climatique dans le vignoble de Champagne : modélisation thermique à plusieurs échelles spatio-temporelles". Paris 7, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011PA070075.
Texto completo da fonteGlobal climatic change has already consequences on viticulture Worldwide and these modifications imply some questions about future. Evaluation of possible modifications in Champagne vineyard is necessary in terms of thermal extremes for vineyard as spring frost during budbreak and heat-waves. Indeed temperature influences phenological cycle and earlier phenological stages have already been observed. This vineyard is particularly interesting to study because of its northern location and thanks to a large network of weather stations since 20 years. To establish a prospective of thermal possible conditions, data of French climate models LMD and ARPEGE-Climate model, respectively at 300 km and 50 km of resolution, are validated and analyzed on a control period (1950 to 2000). They are also used to give an overview of bioclimatic and thermal future conditions (2001 to 2100) with three scenarios, currently used (A1B, Bl and A2). The control period shows cold biases within statistical distributions of climate models data in spring and summer, in terms of extremes frequencies estimation and better results with ARPEGE climate model. Data of this model are used to assess thermal and bioclimatic futures conditions. Summer extremes could increase in the future while cold spring extremes could decrease during budbreak. Budbreak could be earlier and spring cold extremes in Mardi could cause more severe frost of buds. Regional analysis is completed by a local analysis with RAMS meso-scale model, which downscales simulations at a resolution of 200m, taking into account local factors. The validation modeling is proceeded during the 2003 extreme climatic events (late spring frost and summer heat wave), this year is considered as exceptional and representative of the "future climate" which caused buds frost and berries warming. Simulated temperatures (200 m) for the Champagne vineyard were compared to recorded temperatures by weather stations located within the vineyards. The model reproduced the diurnal cycle of temperatures correctly with biases more or less marked depending dates
Morfin, Marie. "Dynamiques spatio-temporelles d'espèces démersales clés du golfe du Lion : bénéfices potentiels d’aires marines protégées". Thesis, Montpellier 2, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013MON20158.
Texto completo da fonteDemersal species represent 50% of French fisheries catches in theGulf of Lions, most of which are fully exploited, or overfished for decades. This thesis evaluates the relevance of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a tool for conservation and management of these populations. So far these areas have been implemented only along the coast to protect the very few mobile species. The problem is more complex for deep sea species because their habitat is broader and more diffuse. To do this, the spatial distribution of 12 key demersal species exploited were studied from 1994 to 2010, with scientific observations and ad hoc statistical tools. A geostatistical approach allowed to detect spatial autocorrelation structures for all species, and produce maps of annual distributions of each species. These distributions appeared very stable over 17 years, apart from a phenomenon of expansion/ contraction with the level of total abundance in the region. In addition, a generalized linear model approach revealed significant associations of these species to a temporally stable habitat. These results are consistent with MacCall basin theory, according which habitat suitability is a density-dependent thus the increase of individuals in an area make them colonize sub-optimal habitats. An optimal habitat under protection could thus be "source" habitat, if the area is carefully chosen. Indeed reporting the fishing effort outside the MPA can instead make this measure ineffective or deleterious. The adult population were generally in more concentrated areas and included in the spatial range of juveniles. These common areas of essential habitat (breeding and nursery) may be potentially interesting to protect a single species . However, the heterogeneity of distributions of a species to another involves the introduction of very sparse areas, making the management difficult. However an area of reasonable size has been identified, covering 20% of the population of each species and representative of the diversity of bottom habitats in the region
Benoist, Clément. "Apport de la prise en compte de la dépendance spatiotemporelle des séries temporelles de positions GNSS à l'estimation d'un système de référence". Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PSLEO011.
Texto completo da fonteAny global and precise positioning requires a reference frame such as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). The determination of the ITRF relies on the position time series of various geodetic instruments, including in particular permanent GNSS stations. GNSS station position time series are known to be temporally and spatially correlated. Many authors have studied the temporal dependency of GNSS time series and its impact on the determination of terrestrial reference frames. On the other hand, the spatial correlations (i.e., between nearby stations) of GNSS time series have so far never been taken into account in the computation of terrestrial reference frames. The objective of this thesis is therefore to develop a methodology to account for the spatial correlations of GNSS time series, and evaluate its benefits.The spatial dependencies between the position time series of 195 GNSS stations are first evaluated by means of empirical variograms, which confirm the existence of correlations up to distances of about 5000 km. Exponential covariance models, depending only on the distance between stations, are adjusted to these empirical variograms.A methodology based on a Kalman filter is then developed to take into account the spatial dependencies of GNSS time series in the computation of a terrestrial reference frame. Three models of spatial dependency are proposed: a model which does not account for the spatial dependency between GNSS time series (current case of the ITRF computation), a model based on the empirical covariances between the time series of different stations, and a model based on the exponential covariance functions mentioned above.These different models are applied to three test cases of ten stations each, located in Europe, in the Caribbean, and along the east coast of the US. The three models are evaluated with regard to a cross-validation criterion, i.e., on their capacity to predict station positions in the absence of observations. The results obtained with the Europe and US test cases demonstrate a significant improvement of this predictive capacity when the spatial dependency of the series is taken into account. This improvement is highest when the exponential covariance model is used. The improvement is much lower, but still present with the Caribbean test case.The three models are also evaluated with regard to their capacity to determine accurate station velocities from short position time series. The impact of accounting for the spatial dependency between series on the accuracy of the estimated velocities is again significant. Like previously, the improvement is highest when the exponential covariance model is used.This thesis thus demonstrates the interest of accounting for the spatial dependency of GNSS station position time series in the determination of terrestrial reference frames. The developed methodology could be used in the computation of future ITRF versions
Sicard, Pierre. "Caractérisation des retombées atmosphériques en France en zone rurale sous forme de précipitations, gaz et aérosols : analyse des tendances spatio-temporelles et des séries chronologiques". Lille 1, 2006. https://pepite-depot.univ-lille.fr/LIBRE/Th_Num/2006/50376-2006-Sicard.pdf.
Texto completo da fonteZeghnoun, Abdelkrim. "Relation à court terme entre pollution atmosphérique et santé : quelques aspects statistiques et épidémiologiques". Paris 7, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002PA077199.
Texto completo da fonteBoulanger, Xavier. "Modélisation du canal de propagation Terre-Espace en bandes Ka et Q/V : synthèse de séries temporelles, variabilité statistique et estimation de risque". Thesis, Toulouse, ISAE, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013ESAE0009/document.
Texto completo da fonteNowadays, C and Ku bands used for fixed SATCOM systems are totally congested. However, the demand of the end users for high data rate multimedia services is increasing. Consequently, the use of higher frequency bands (Ka: 20 GHz and Q/V 40/50 GHz) is under investigation. For frequencies higher than 5 GHz, radiowave propagation is strongly affected by tropospheric attenuation. Among the different contributors, rain is the most significant. To compensate the deterioration of the propagation channel, Fade Mitigation Techniques (FMT) are used. The lack of experimental data needed to optimize the real-time control loops of FMT leads tothe use of rain attenuation and total attenuation time series synthesizers. The manuscript is a compilation of five articles. The first contribution is dedicated to the temporal modelling of total impairments. The second article aims at providing significant improvements on the rain attenuation time series synthesizer recommended by ITU-R. The last three contributions are a critical analysis and a modelling of the variability observed on the 1st order statistics used to validate propagation channel models. The variance of the statistical estimator of the complementary cumulative distribution functions of rainfall rate and rain attenuation is highlighted. A worldwide model parameterized in compliance with propagation measurements is proposed. It allows the confidence intervals to be estimated and the risk on a required availability associated with a given propagation margin prediction to be quantified. This approach is extended to the variability of joint statistics. It allows the impact of site diversity techniques on system performances at small scale (few kms) and large scale (few hundred of kms) to be evaluated
Bonnet, Pierre. "Impact of temporal statistics on the processing of auditory stimuli". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Lyon 1, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024LYO10246.
Texto completo da fonteThe temporal regularities in the sensory context are known to affect the perception of an upcoming sensory event. For instance, when listening to a metronome, we can readily predict when the next sound will occur, which enhances our ability to detect subtle acoustic changes due to this anticipation. However, how the temporal variability can impact temporal prediction mechanisms remain poorly understood. This question is crucial because, from a naturalistic point of view, in music and speech in particular, sensory events rather follow patterns of temporal regularity and thus may also occur with a certain amount of temporal variability. In this thesis, we investigated how temporal variability of sound sequences impacts auditory perception, associated neural responses, and their potential impact on language processing. In a first behavioral study, we used an auditory oddball experiment in which participants listened to different sound sequences where the temporal interval between each sound was drawn from gaussian distributions with distinct standard deviations. We established that temporal predictions in probabilistic contexts are still possible and progressively declined as the temporal variability in the context increase. In a second EEG study, we show that temporal variability in context influences the evoked response to sounds as more regular sound sequence showed stronger ramping activity post-target onset, higher MMN amplitude and increased P300 response. The results further support current theories linking observed neural entrainment dynamics to temporal predictions mechanisms: periods where neural entrainment was high was associated with faster target sounds discrimination. Finally, in the third part of this thesis we showed a deficit in temporal prediction mechanisms in dyslexia. Using the same paradigm as in the first experimental chapter, dyslexic participants had significantly more difficulty discriminating sounds in regular temporal sequences than matched controls. Overall, this thesis provides insights into temporal predictions mechanisms in probabilistic contexts and discusses their potential impact in auditory language processing
Rebaud, Bettina. "Evolution vers des architectures de systèmes intégrés auto-adaptatives et tolérantes aux variations technologiques et environnementales". Montpellier 2, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009MON20228.
Texto completo da fonteWith the « More Moore » and low power trends, optimizing or only well predicting the final performances of digital circuits become more and more difficult. Indeed, variability and hardness to accurately model transistor behavior impede the dimension scaling benefits. Current design methods generally use guard margins to prevent from the incertitude generated by these limits and to guarantee functional yield. But as we go in the nanometer era, the margin use is not efficient anymore, because of an increasing over-design, limiting optimizations and decreasing yield. Very different numerous solutions exist in order to overcome these troubles, following two main goals which are dissimilar but also complementary: increasing the robustness to uncertainty during the design levels, notably thanks to better performance analysis; and adapting the final circuit to its real process corner and to its environment. In this work, we considered these two directions: the first one thanks to (1) an implementation of a specific methodology called SSTA (Statistical Static Timing Analysis), allowing to perform statistical analysis on timing performances; this methodology allows us to accurately observe process variation effects on delays; and the second one in proposing (2) an efficient diagnostic system based on the in situ critical path monitoring concept and allowing all adaptive solution implementations. The latter answer to variability issue allows to know the real characteristics of the circuit, to crop design margins, to improve power consumption and frequency performances, and even to increase yield
Raillard, Nicolas. "Modélisation du comportement extrême de processus spatio-temporels. Applications en océanographie et météorologie". Phd thesis, Université Rennes 1, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00656468.
Texto completo da fonteViroj, Jaruwan. "Santé publique et analyse spatio-temporelle de la leptospirose humaine dans la province de Mahasarakham en Thaïlande". Thesis, Montpellier, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019MONTG028.
Texto completo da fonteLeptospirosis is a neglected tropical disease that affects mostly rural people in Thailand. This study aims to identify the factors explaining leptospirosis epidemiology, to describe the health policy implemented for leptospirosis prevention and control and its implementation in the rural province of Mahasarakham (Thailand), and to analyse the representations, practices, and attitudes of patients, people, health volunteers and health officers toward the disease and its prevention.The analysis of health policies showed that Thailand has progressively developed a national prevention and control policy framework and transferred its implementation to local administrative levels. However, leptospirosis prevention and control still need enhanced collaboration between public health, livestock, and agriculture departments with an important local community involvement under the One Health approach.The analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of human leptospirosis cases showed that the factors associated with leptospirosis infection are complex and multifactorial, including human population density, livestock density, rainfall, flood cover and physical geography, i.e. average slope. The results stressed the importance of livestock that may contribute to leptospirosis transmission to humans. Targeting areas prone at risk, i.e. with high livestock or in flooded areas, should be complemented by improving communication to people at risk, i.e. farmers.The cross sectional study conducted to assess knowledge, attitudes, and practices showed that patients, neighbors, village health volunteers and community leaders did not have a clear comprehension of the disease and its transmission to really improve the prevention of infections. People need to have access to a complex and up-to-date scientific knowledge in order to improve their awareness about leptospirosis.Finally, taking results of above issues allowed “Guidelines for developing cooperation between departments for prevention and control leptospirosis of Mahasarakham Province, Thailand” to be produced
Bourien, Jérôme. "Analyse de distributions spatio-temporelles de transitoires dans des signaux vectoriels. Application à la détection-classification d'activités paroxystiques intercritiques dans des observations EEG". Phd thesis, Université Rennes 1, 2003. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00007178.
Texto completo da fonte1. Détection des AE monovoie. La méthode de détection, qui repose sur une approche heuristique, utilise un banc de filtres en ondelettes pour réhausser la composante pointue des AE (généralement appelée "spike" dans la littérature). La valeur moyenne des statistiques obtenues en sortie de chaque filtre est ensuite analysée avec un algorithme de Page-Hinkley dans le but de détecter des changements abrupts correspondant aux spikes.
2. Fusion des AE. Cette procédure recherche des co-occurrences entre AE monovoie à l'aide d'une fenêtre glissante puis forme des AE multivoies.
3. Extraction des sous-ensembles de voies fréquement et significativement activées lors des AE multivoies (appelés "ensembles d'activation").
4. Evaluation de l'éxistence d'un ordre d'activation temporel reproductible (éventuellement partiel) au sein de chaque ensemble d'activation.
Les méthodes proposées dans chacune des étapes ont tout d'abord été évaluées à l'aide de signaux simulés (étape 1) ou à l'aide de models Markoviens (étapes 2-4). Les résultats montrent que la méthode complète est robuste aux effets des fausses-alarmes. Cette méthode a ensuite été appliquée à des signaux enregistrés chez 8 patients (chacun contenant plusieurs centaines d'AE). Les résultats indiquent une grande reproductibilité des distributions spatio-temporelles des AE et ont permis l'identification de réseaux anatomo-fonctionnels spécifiques.
Ibrahim, Zein Al Abidin. "Caractérisation des structures audiovisuelles par analyse statistique des relations temporelles". Toulouse 3, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007TOU30069.
Texto completo da fonteThe aim of our work is to characterize the structure of audiovisual documents. Based on the detection of events that are characteristic of the document content or structure, we propose a representation of the temporal structure of a document, which is then used for document comparison. Existing methods by which document structures are identified usually take a priori knowledge into account. They are applied on a specific document type or on a specific document content. In our work, we have adopted another point of view and designed our method to be generic and knowledge independent so that it can be applied to any document types. Our approach is based on the analysis of the temporal relationships observed between any detected events, on the occurrence number and on a parametric representation of these relations. In order to enlarge the temporal relation analysis, we propose an algebra of relation based on this parametric representation. .
Do, Cao Tri. "Apprentissage de métrique temporelle multi-modale et multi-échelle pour la classification robuste de séries temporelles par plus proches voisins". Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016GREAM028/document.
Texto completo da fonteThe definition of a metric between time series is inherent to several data analysis and mining tasks, including clustering, classification or forecasting. Time series data present naturally several characteristics, called modalities, covering their amplitude, behavior or frequential spectrum, that may be expressed with varying delays and at different temporal granularity and localization - exhibited globally or locally. Combining several modalities at multiple temporal scales to learn a holistic metric is a key challenge for many real temporal data applications. This PhD proposes a Multi-modal and Multi-scale Temporal Metric Learning (M2TML) approach for robust time series nearest neighbors classification. The solution is based on the embedding of pairs of time series into a pairwise dissimilarity space, in which a large margin optimization process is performed to learn the metric. The M2TML solution is proposed for both linear and non linear contexts, and is studied for different regularizers. A sparse and interpretable variant of the solution shows the ability of the learned temporal metric to localize accurately discriminative modalities as well as their temporal scales.A wide range of 30 public and challenging datasets, encompassing images, traces and ECG data, that are linearly or non linearly separable, are used to show the efficiency and the potential of M2TML for time series nearest neighbors classification
Goldfarb, Bernard. "Etude structurelle des séries temporelles : les moyens de l'analyse spectrale". Paris 9, 1997. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=1997PA090007.
Texto completo da fonteChoukair, Lamia. "Méthodologie statistique pour l'analyse de séries spatio-temporelles : application à des données climatologiques /". Paris : Ecole nationale supérieure des télécommunications, 1994. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb35691557j.
Texto completo da fonteAminghafari, Mina. "Méthodes d'ondelettes en statistique des signaux temporels uni et multivariés". Paris 11, 2006. http://www.theses.fr/2006PA112045.
Texto completo da fonteThis thesis takes place in statistics and deals with the applications of wavelets to the univariate and multivariate signals. The first part is devoted to a multivariate extension of the well known wavelet denoising procedure widely examined for scalar valued signals. It combines a straightforward multivariate generalization of a classical one and principal component analysis. This new procedure exhibits promising behavior on classical bench signals and the associated estimator is found to be near minimax in the one-dimensional sense, for Besov balls. The method is finally illustrated by an application to multichannel neural recordings. The second part is devoted to the forecasting problem of a stationary or non-stationary one dimensional time series, using non-decimated wavelet transform. A new proposal method to prediction stationary data and stationary data contaminated by additive trend is proposed. It consists of generalizing a procedure whose idea is to select the wavelet coefficients built from the past observations then to directly estimate the forecasting equation by the regression of the process on the past wavelet coefficients. This scheme is extended to an arbitrary orthogonal wavelet and to the introduction a non-stationary component. The third part relates to a topic a little bit different from the others. We introduce a method for prior selection. This method can be considered as an alternative approach to the parametric empirical Bayes method for priorselection and can then be applied to the choice of threshold in the denoising procedure using wavelets
Lefieux, Vincent Carbon Michel Delacroix Michel. "Modèles semi-paramétriques appliqués à la prévision des séries temporelles cas de la consommation d'électricité /". Rennes : Université Rennes 2, 2007. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00179866/fr.
Texto completo da fonteWatier-Laquay, Laurence. "Etude des variations temporelles des infections à salmonelles non typiques : modélisation et prévision". Paris 11, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993PA11T015.
Texto completo da fonteAbu-Awwad, Abdul-Fattah. "Sur l’inférence statistique pour des processus spatiaux et spatio-temporels extrêmes". Thesis, Lyon, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019LYSE1079/document.
Texto completo da fonteNatural hazards such as heat waves, extreme wind speeds, and heavy rainfall, arise due to physical processes and are spatial or spatio-temporal in extent. The development of models and inference methods for these processes is a very active area of research. This thesis deals with the statistical inference of extreme and rare events in both spatial and spatio-temporal settings. Specifically, our contributions are dedicated to two classes of stochastic processes: spatial max-mixture processes and space-time max-stable processes. The proposed methodologies are illustrated by applications to rainfall data collected from the East of Australia and from a region in the State of Florida, USA. In the spatial part, we consider hypothesis testing for the mixture parameter a of a spatial maxmixture model using two classical statistics: the Z-test statistic Za and the pairwise likelihood ratio statistic LRa. We compare their performance through an extensive simulation study. The pairwise likelihood is employed for estimation purposes. Overall, the performance of the two statistics is satisfactory. Nevertheless, hypothesis testing presents some difficulties when a lies on the boundary of the parameter space, i.e., a ∈ {0,1}, due to the presence of additional nuisance parameters which are not identified under the null hypotheses. We apply this testing framework in an analysis of exceedances over a large threshold of daily rainfall data from the East of Australia. We also propose a novel estimation procedure to fit spatial max-mixture processes with unknown extremal dependence class. The novelty of this procedure is to provide a way to make inference without specifying the distribution family prior to fitting the data. Hence, letting the data speak for themselves. In particular, the estimation procedure uses nonlinear least squares fit based on a closed form expression of the so-called Fλ-madogram of max-mixture models which contains the parameters of interest. We establish the consistency of the estimator of the mixing parameter a. An indication for asymptotic normality is given numerically. A simulation study shows that the proposed procedure improves empirical coefficients for the class of max-mixture models. In an analysis of monthly maxima of Australian daily rainfall data, we implement the proposed estimation procedure for diagnostic and confirmatory purposes. In the spatio-temporal part, based on a closed form expression of the spatio-temporal Fmadogram, we suggest a semi-parametric estimation methodology for space-time max-stable processes. This part provides a bridge between geostatistics and extreme value theory. In particular, for regular grid observations, the spatio-temporal F-madogram is estimated nonparametrically by its empirical version and a moment-based procedure is applied to obtain parameter estimates. The performance of the method is investigated through an extensive simulation study. Afterward, we apply this method to quantify the extremal behavior of radar daily rainfall maxima data from a region in the State of Florida. This approach could serve as an alternative or a prerequisite to pairwise likelihood estimation. Indeed, the semi-parametric estimates could be used as starting values for the optimization algorithm used to maximize the pairwise log-likelihood function in order to reduce the computational burden and also to improve the statistical efficiency
Bonthoux, Sébastien. "Les relations spatiales et temporelles entre les communautés d'oiseaux et les paysages agricoles". Thesis, Toulouse, INPT, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011INPT0097/document.
Texto completo da fonteThis thesis concerns the assessment of the impacts of land use changes in agricultural landscapes on biodiversity based on bird communities. The intensification of agriculture has resulted in a decrease of semi-natural habitats and the diversity of landscapes with profound consequences on the structure and the dynamics of plant and animal communities. Establish effective environmental policies requires an understanding of ecological processes responsible for these changes. In my work, I used two strategies: the study of synchronic and diachronic relations between bird communities and landscape structure. The synchronic approach allowed me to check the spatial genericity of relationships between birds and their habitats. I demonstrated that the same landscape factors explain the distribution of the skylark and the species richness in three geographic regions of France (Gascogny, Poitou, Britain). These results suggest that in some cases the same management programs can be used over a wide geographical area, without the need to adapt locally. In a second step, in the site « Vallées et Coteaux de Gascogne » I compared bird communities in five agricultural systems with contrasting intensities of production. I showed that the structure and composition of communities are very similar in all five systems. This unexpected result is probably due to the maintenance on this study site, for cultural reasons, of a heterogeneous landscape that buffers the effects of agricultural intensification. The diachronic approach allowed me to quantify the impact of long term landscape dynamics on bird communities in the site « Vallées et Coteaux de Gascogne ». Between 1982 and 2007, it occured a slight decrease in the heterogeneity of landscapes and a strong increase of crops at the expense of grasslands. I found significant relationships between landscape dynamics and changes in bird communities. However, these temporal relations are weaker than synchronic relations on both dates. These results suggest to be cautious in the use of the "space for time substitution" approach. In order to build reliable tools to predict species distribution patterns, I have evaluated and compared the predictive performance of two approaches modeling: species level versus community level. I showed that both approaches have a similar reliability to predcit species distributions. These types of models could be coupled with scenarios of landscape changes to simulate the response of biodiversity to these scenarios
Bédubourg, Gabriel. "Place des outils d'analyse des séries temporelles dans la surveillance épidémiologique pour la détection des épidémies et leur analyse : élaboration de nouveaux outils de détection et d'analyse étiologique des épidémies appliqués à la surveillance épidémiologique". Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018AIXM0739.
Texto completo da fontePublic health surveillance is the ongoing, systematic collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination of data for use in public health action to reduce morbidity and mortality of health-related events and to improve health. One of its objectives is the detection of unusualevents, i.e. outbreaks, requiring the rapid implementation of countermeasures.The objectives of this work are: (i) to evaluate the main published statistical methods for outbreak detection commonly implemented in different public health surveillance systems, (ii) to propose a new approach based on the optimal combination of statistical methods foroutbreak detection and benchmark it to other methods; and (iii) develop a new statistical method for the etiological analysis of an outbreak from public health surveillance data routinely collected by the system. To achieve these objectives, as a first step, we evaluate the main statistical methods, from a published set of simulated public health surveillance data. Statistical methods have been evaluated for an operational purpose: for all simulated time series, we used the tuning parameters recommended by their authors for each algorithm when available. We propose sensitivity and specificity metrics suitable for these tools. Then we propose an original approach for outbreak detection based on combination of methods selected in the previous step. The performance of this approach is compared to the previous ones according to the methodology implemented in the first step.Finally, we propose a method for the etiological analysis of an outbreak from surveillance data by using statistical models suitable for time series analysis
Guillot, Gilles. "Modélisation statistique des champs de pluie sahéliens : application à leur désagrégation spatiale et temporelle". Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble), 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998GRE10226.
Texto completo da fonteJacquet, Olivier. "Analyse statistique des processus ponctuels spatio-temporels de propagation sur une grille". Antilles-Guyane, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008AGUY0245.
Texto completo da fonteThe origin of the work presented in this thesis is a problem of epidemiology in the field of agricultural crops. It is to model the spread of disease on an experimental plot. Individuals statistics, in this case the plants of this plot, are regularly arranged on the nodes on a grid. In such situations, harvest data, in general, dates successive positions of the new infected individuals, putting in place various strategies depending on the size of parcels or human resources and technology available. Ifone is not limited by the cost and effort of observation, the ideal method is to make the exhaustive sampling ie observe the condition ofeach individual on the plot. However, for reasons ofcost observation, we can not have the status of individuals on the grid than the dates of observation data. There fore, if at date S t_OS we have all infected plants S 1_{t_O}S and at date S t_lS we have S1_{t_l}S, a methodological approach is to consider the possible order of infection between S t_0S and S t_l S. The purpose ofthis work is to propose a model for the spatial and temporal evolution of a disease on a regular grid and develop statistical inference of this model for data consisting of infection cards reported on dates fixed widely spaced so that the precise dates ofinfection are missing data. The plan of this thesis in to two parts. \\ In the first, we recall the main tools ofstatistical analysis of ad hoc spatial and/or temporal processes, and a summary on Bayesi an analysis and Markovian exploration techniques which will be used to infer and optimize the parameters of interest. In the second part of the thesis, we present a model inspired by the propagation model Gibson (1996) and various methodologies to tackle the problem of statistical inference in Chapter 3. The proposed methods can be classified in to two broad families. As a first step, we can consider inference techniques that take into account only the temporal order ofarrival of events between the dates ofobservation St_0S and St_lS. These techniques range from the use of simple Monte Carlo methods to generation of Markov chain. In a second time, the methodology is to generate the precise dates of occurrence of events between the dates of observations S t_0S and S t_l St, then usin the theory of Bayes combined with Markov chains to estimate the parameters of interest
Rudelou, Ghislain. "Performances temporelles d'automates programmables et conception d'un coprocesseur d'accélération". Montpellier 2, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993MON20238.
Texto completo da fonteHay-Lepretre, Céline. "Dynamiques spatiale et temporelle de l'aléa inondation : de l'analyse des phénomènes à l'évaluation des pratiques d'aménagement, l'exemple de la Seine-Maritime". Rouen, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005ROUEL519.
Texto completo da fonteFor some years, the floods are recurring in Seine-Maritime (France), provoking numerous damages and sometimes making victims. These events are strongly harmful for the private individuals and the local governments. The press and some studies note a greater recurrence and an escalation of the scale of the phenomena, but no study has ever allowed to quantify it. Numerous data bases exist, but they do not allow the analysis of the phenomena at a fine scale and do not guarantee an exhaustiveness. From the perusal of several types of archives, this research establishes a reference base for the study of the floods in this department. This one counts 220 meteorological events having provoked 3544 floods on 657 municipalities of the Seine-Maritime between 1960 and 2000. A statistical and cartographic analysis allows a better knowledge of their temporal and spatial distribution at the scale of the department. This data base serves also as a tool of evaluation of the planning practices. In fact, they expanded widely during these last thirty years. It is, consequently, interesting to appreciate their real efficiency in the struggle against the floods. An analysis at the scale of a hydrographic basin allows to study the constituents of the risk on a municipal territory. It leads to the conclusion of a necessary cross management of the interface of hazard and vulnerability and of their dynamism at the local level
Tambaud, Rémy. "Mise en évidence des composantes tendancielle, saisonnière et irrégulière des séries temporelles, à travers les modèles ARIMA". Paris 7, 1985. http://www.theses.fr/1985PA07F109.
Texto completo da fonteLétang, Jean-Michel. "Intégration temporelle et régularisation statistique appliquées à la détection d'objets mobiles dans une séquence d'images". Grenoble INPG, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993INPG0149.
Texto completo da fonteOwusu, Patrick Asante. "Modélisation de dépendances dans des séries temporelles co-évolutives". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lorraine, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024LORR0104.
Texto completo da fonteCurrent research in time series analysis shows that there are insufficient formal approaches for modelling the dependencies of multiple or co-evolving time series as they change over time. In this dissertation, we develop a formal approach for analysing the temporality and evolution of dependencies via the definitions of sub-time series, where a sub-time series is a segment of the original time series data. In general, we design an approach based on the principle of sliding windows to analyse the temporal nature and dependency changes between evolving time series. More precisely, each sub-time series is analysed independently to understand the local dependencies and how these dependencies shift as the window moves forward in time. This, therefore, allows us to model the temporal evolution of dependencies with finer granularity. Our contributions relating to the modelling of dependencies highlight the significance of understanding the dynamic interconnections between multiple time series that evolve together over time. The primary objective is to develop robust techniques to effectively capture these evolving dependencies, thereby improving the analysis and prediction of complex systems such as financial markets, climate systems, and other domains generating voluminous time series data. The dissertation explores the use of autoregressive models and proposes novel methods for identifying and modelling these dependencies, addressing the limitations of traditional methods that often overlook the temporal dynamics and scalability required for handling large datasets. A core aspect of the research is the development of a two-step approach to detect and model evolving effects in multiple time series. The first step involves identifying patterns to recreate series variations over various time intervals using finite linear models. This step is crucial for capturing the temporal dependencies within the data. By leveraging a sequence of bipartite graphs, the study models change across multiple time series, linking repetitive and new dependencies at varying time durations in sub-series. This approach not only simplifies the process of identifying dependencies but also provides a scalable solution for analysing large datasets, as demonstrated through experiments with, for example, real-world financial market data. The dissertation further emphasises the importance of interpretability in modelling co-evolving time series. By integrating large language models (LLMs) and context-aware techniques, the research enhances the understanding of the underlying factors driving changes in time series data. This interpretability is achieved through the construction of temporal graphs and the serialisation of these graphs into natural language, providing clear and comprehensive insights into the dependencies and interactions within the data. The combination of autoregressive models and LLMs enables the generation of plausible and interpretable predictions, making the approach suitable for real-world applications where trust and clarity in model outputs are paramount
Cerovecki, Clément. "Inférence asymptotique pour des processus stationnaires fonctionnels". Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/271371.
Texto completo da fonteDoctorat en Sciences
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Dola, Béchir. "Problèmes économétriques d'analyse des séries temporelles à mémoire longue". Phd thesis, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00794676.
Texto completo da fonteBettache, Nayel. "Matrix-valued Time Series in High Dimension". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024IPPAG002.
Texto completo da fonteThe objective of this thesis is to model matrix-valued time series in a high-dimensional framework. To this end, the entire study is presented in a non-asymptotic framework. We first provide a test procedure capable of distinguishing whether the covariance matrix of centered random vectors with centered stationary distribution is equal to the identity or has a sparse Toeplitz structure. Secondly, we propose an extension of low-rank matrix linear regression to a regression model with two matrix-parameters which create correlations between the rows and he columns of the output random matrix. Finally, we introduce and estimate a dynamic topic model where the expected value of the observations is factorizes into a static matrix and a time-dependent matrix following a simplex-valued auto-regressive process of order one
El, bouch Sara. "Un test de normalité pour les séries temporelles multivariées, une application en sismologie". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Grenoble Alpes, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022GRALT112.
Texto completo da fonteThis thesis is concerned with time-series analysis. The present growth of interest in sensor networks and our ability to simultaneously record time series representing the fluctuations of numerous physical quantities, naturally leads to consider d-dimensional processes. Adapted tools for the extraction of knowledge from the ever increasing amount of recorded time-series are very much solicited. An equally exploding number of new models is developed as a response to the demand and considerable effort is put to developing efficient methods from theoretical and practical viewpoints.Change detection is a longstanding and interdisciplinary problem at the frontier of statistics and Machine Learning practices. In particular, we are interested in the detection of rare, brief and oscillating events that appear as non-Gaussian in data recorded simultaneously on sensors. This work describes a sequential detector for non-Gaussian colored time-series embedded in Gaussian noise.To this end, we explore tools at the frontier of estimation and detection and Machine Learning practices relevant to time-series analysis.Our major contributions consist of deriving the challenging (but relevant) limiting distribution of Mardia's Kurtosis for bivariate time-series, then extending the findings to the general multivariate case by means of random projections. The proposed results are translated to an operational sequential detector. Its performances are tested on colored copula, synthetic and real data. The good detection power of the bivariate detector is confirmed by computer experiments.Our work is also adjacent to applications in seismology, therefore our detector is merged with this framework and applied to seismograms recorded on three-axis sensors, and arrays of sensors
Le, Bail Karine. "Etude statistique de la stabilité des stations de géodésie spatiale. Application à DORIS". Phd thesis, Observatoire de Paris, 2004. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00011406.
Texto completo da fontePadonou, Esperan. "Apprentissage Statistique en Domaine Circulaire Pour la Planification de Contrôles en Microélectronique". Thesis, Lyon, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016LYSEM009/document.
Texto completo da fonteDriven by industrial needs in microelectronics, this thesis is focused on probabilistic models for spatial data and Statistical Process Control. The spatial problem has the specificity of being defined on circular domains. It is addressed through a Kriging model where the deterministic part is made of orthogonal polynomials and the stochastic term represented by a Gaussian process. Defined with the Euclidean distance and the uniform measure over the disk, traditional Kriging models do not exploit knowledge on manufacturing processes. To take rotations or diffusions from the center into account, we introduce polar Gaussian processes over the disk. They embed radial and angular correlations in Kriging predictions, leading to significant improvements in the considered situations. Polar Gaussian processes are then interpreted via Sobol decomposition and generalized in higher dimensions. Different designs of experiments are developed for the proposed models. Among them, Latin cylinders reproduce in the space of polar coordinates the properties of Latin hypercubes. To model spatial and temporal data, Statistical Process Control is addressed by monitoring Kriging parameters, based on standard control charts. Furthermore, the monitored time – series contain outliers and structural changes, which cause bias in prediction and false alarms in risk management. These issues are simultaneously tackled with a robust and adaptive smoothing
Rakotoarisoa, Mahefa. "Les risques hydrologiques dans les bassins versants sous contrôle anthropique : modélisation de l'aléa, de la vulnérabilité et des conséquences sur les sociétés. : Cas de la région Sud-ouest de Madagascar". Thesis, Angers, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017ANGE0067/document.
Texto completo da fonteHydrological risks are recurrent on the Fiherenana watershed - Madagascar. The city of Toliara, which is located at the outlet of the river basin, is subject each year to hurricane hazards and floods. The stakes are of major importance in this part of the island. This study begins with the analysis of hazard by collecting all existing hydro-climatic data on the catchment. It then seeks to determine trends, despite the significant lack of data, using statistical models (time series). Then, two approaches are used to assess the vulnerability of the city of Toliara and its surrounding villages. First, a static approach, from surveys of land and the use of GIS are conducted. Then, the second method is based on a multi-agent model. The first step is the mapping of a microscale vulnerability index which is an arrangement of several static criteria. For each House, there are several criteria of vulnerability such as potential water depth or architectural typology. As for the second part, scenes of agents are simulated in order to evaluate the degree of housing vulnerability to flooding. The model aims to estimate the chances of the occupants to escape from a catastrophic flood. For this purpose, we compare various settings and scenarios, some of which are conducted to take into account the effect of various decisions made by the responsible entities (awareness campaign etc.). The simulation consists of two essential parts: the simulation of the rise of water and the simulation of the behaviour of the people facing the occurence of hazard. Indicators and simulations allow to better understand the risks in order to help crisis management. Key Words: Hy
Pigeau, Antoine. "Structuration géo-temporelle de données multimédia personnelles". Phd thesis, Nantes, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005NANT2131.
Texto completo da fonteUsage of mobile devices raises the need for organizing large personal multimedia collection. The present work focus on personal image collections acquired from mobile phones equipped with a camera. We deal with the structuring of an image collection as a clustering problem. Our solution consists in building two distinct temporal and spatial partitions, based on the temporal and spatial metadata of each image. The main ingredients of our approach are the Gaussian mixture models and the ICL criterion to determine the models complexities. First, we propose an incremental optimization algorithm to build non-hierarchical partitions in an automatic manner. It is then combined with an agglomerative algorithm to provide an incremental hierarchical algorithm. Finally, two techniques are roposed to build hybrid spatio-temporal classifications taking into account the human machine interaction constraints
Wu, Zeqin. "SSTA basée sur la propagation des moments". Montpellier 2, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009MON20133.
Texto completo da fonte