Teses / dissertações sobre o tema "Police Dept"
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1
Dennis, Simone J. "Sensual extensions : joy, pain and music-making in a police band". Title page, contents and abstract only, 2002. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09phd4115.pdf.
Resumo:
Bibliography: leaves 210-226. Based on 18 months ethnographic fieldwork about the ways in which members of the South Australian Police Band make music. Studies their disconnection from the body of the community, acheived via an embodiment of emotional disconnection; the power of the Department to appropriate a particular order of emotion for the purposes of power; and, the misrecognition of the appropriation of emotion by members of the public who are open to the Department's emotional domination. The context material describes the reasons for the existence of the police band in the police view, while the core material of the thesis is concerned with describing what it is that police band members do, and what they do most of all is, in their own words, experience something that they call "the feel".
2
Hauman, Nicholas. "Thesis Proposal for: General and Specific Definitions: A Network Study of Differential Association". VCU Scholars Compass, 2011. http://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd/2500.
Resumo:
This study examines a largely unexplored aspect of Sutherland’s (1974) model of differential association: the interplay of general and crime specific definitions favorable towards crime. Do individuals learn the specific techniques of a type of crime through interactions or do social interactions produce a general disposition towards all types of criminal behavior? Little prior research has been done on the influence of these definitions. Instead studies focus on only one or another, which leaves the details of general/specific definitions unexplored. With the aid of a mixed methodology of statistical and network analysis, this study explores general/specific definitions simultaneously by focusing on relationships between egos and alters. If alters commit similar crimes, it is likely that crime specific definitions are being learned; if crimes are dissimilar then general definitions are more likely. Using police data on a known criminal network located in an urban capital, I test the relationship between the criminal behaviors of egos and alters. The study also compares the centrality of the node to the commonality of crime they commit. This provides an understanding of how key nodes in the network affect the dissemination of criminal definitions. Overall, while variations exist for criminal types, the study finds that crime specific definitions dominate the network and, therefore, have greater influence over respondents’ criminal behavior. Conversely, I found no clear pattern which indicates that high centrality nodes commit more common crimes. This may indicate that high centrality nodes are responsible for disseminating general definitions of crime while most nodes communicate crime specific definition.
3
Kelly, Don Russell. "Intake social workers tendency to base values on a law enforcement practice model". CSUSB ScholarWorks, 2003. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project/2285.
Resumo:
This study proposed to determine if there are different personality traits between police officers, Department of Children's Services (DCS) intake and carrier workers. It was proposed that differences may indicate that investigations done by DCS be delegated as a law enforcement function whereas family preservation services be the responsibility of DCS.
4
Lo, Kwan-tung. "Indebtedness of Hong Kong police officers : gambling or overspending? /". Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2000. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B42575540.
5
Conway, Thomas (Thomas John) Carleton University Dissertation Political Science. "The Marginalization of the Department of the Environment: environmental policy, 1971-1988". Ottawa, 1992.
6
Bilinskaya, Yuliya. "Stable and Unstable Debt Dynamics : Does Debt Monetizing Policy Matter?" Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Economics, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-12894.
7
Dinh, Xuan Hai. "Essays on post-crisis fiscal policy". Thesis, Loughborough University, 2017. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/25147.
Resumo:
This thesis comprises of four essays on fiscal policy and fiscal policy adjustment. The first of these essays, Chapter 2, reviews a wide range of literature about fiscal policy. This chapter also discusses the sudden stop and fiscal policy during sudden stops episodes. Chapter 3 constructs a simple dynamic deterministic model to study how the speed of adjustment to a sustainable level of debt affects economic welfare. The simulation results in Chapter 3 suggest that in order to bring the level of external debt to a sustainable level as required by foreign lenders, the small open economy will attempt to delay adjustment as long as possible. Chapter 4 uses a Structural Vector Autoregression Model to estimate government consumption multipliers for groups of countries. The empirical results suggest that: (i) The higher degree of financial openness, the larger the government consumption multiplier. (ii) The government consumption multiplier is significantly bigger in countries with higher levels of external debt. (iii) The higher the level of financial development, the smaller the government consumption multiplier. (iv) The government consumption multiplier in countries with fixed exchange rates seems to be bigger than in countries with a flexible exchange rate regime. Chapter 5 of this thesis analyses four case study countries including Greece, Latvia, Pakistan and Turkey. This chapter finds that fiscal policy choice varies across countries because there are many possible determinants for this. It will also be determined that all factors including the level of public debt, level of external debt and monetary policy, especially exchange rate regime, affects the fiscal policy choice of each country. Furthermore, Chapter 5 also points out that political economy can influence fiscal policy directly and indirectly.
8
Lai, Kam-biu Billy, e 黎錦彪. "Policy analysis and policy windows: fire fighting policy in Hong Kong". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1999. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B3196588X.
9
Das, Kuntal K. "Essays on public debt, expenditure and policy /". Diss., Digital Dissertations Database. Restricted to UC campuses, 2008. http://uclibs.org/PID/11984.
10
Diniz, André Sander. "Essays on fiscal policy and public debt". reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/19312.
Resumo:
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This thesis is composed of three essays related to fiscal policy and public debt. The first chapter analyses quantitatively the relevance of different fiscal policy responses to a debt restructuring episode, taking into account endogenous default costs associated to the financial accelerator mechanism. The second chapter presents an empirical exercise on the effects of fiscal consolidations for Latin American countries, with the study of the impact on output and some aggregate demand components, as well as an investigation of the relative importance of revenue or expenditure-based adjustments and possible non-linearities in the economy's response. The third chapter suggests a simple political economy model to rationalize the presence of political budget cycles for external debt and tests the empirical implications of the model in a panel of developed and emerging economies.
Essa tese é composta por três ensaios relacionados aos temas de política fiscal e dívida pública. O primeiro capítulo faz uma análise quantitativa da importância dos diferentes tipos de resposta da política fiscal a um episódio de reestruturação de dívida, levando em consideração custos endógenos de default associados ao mecanismo do acelerador financeiro. O segundo capítulo apresenta um exercício empírico sobre os efeitos de ajustes fiscais em países da América Latina, estudando o impacto sobre produto e alguns componentes da demanda agregrada, bem como investigando a importância de ajustes baseados em receitas ou despesas e possíveis não-linearidades na resposta da economia. O terceiro capítulo sugere um modelo simples de economia política para racionalizar a presença de ciclos eleitorais de dívida externa, e em seguida testa implicações empíricas do modelo em um painel de economias desenvolvidas e emergentes.
11
BATTIATI, CLAUDIO. "Essays on fiscal policy and debt sustainability". Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2108/208027.
Resumo:
The rst chapter develops an endogenous growth model with public debt and publicly nanced
infrastructure and human capital accumulation. The government sets the primary surplus as a
positive function of the debt-GDP ratio to ensure intertemporal solvency. Conditions for the
existence of a unique equilibrium and saddle-path stability are discussed: in a simplied version of
the model these are ensured by a strong enough reaction to a debt increase. Dynamics associated
with debt-reducing policies and budget-neutral scal reforms in a calibrated economy are described
through numerical simulations. Tax-based scal consolidations turn out growth-enhancing in the
long run, while spending cuts improve welfare. In general, a trade-o emerges between short and
long-run growth, but it is weaker when consolidation is implemented by reducing the debt-GDP
target. Reallocating funds from education to infrastructure and increasing the government size
may also boost economic growth, but only the former policy change is also welfare improving.
The second chapter studies the growth and welfare eects of alternative scal policy reforms
in a model calibrated to describe an over-indebted advanced economy. When a debt feedback rule
is used, scal consolidations can stimulate long-run growth, and, if based on spending cuts, even
improve welfare. Indeed, as the debt stock declines, tax cuts and increases in public spending
follow, thus encouraging the agent to spend more time on work and education. On the one side,
this restricts the eectiveness of debt-reducing policies, on the other it boosts growth and improves
the welfare results. Shifting the tax burden from labor to capital or consumption also has positive
eects on long-run growth, but increasing the capital tax rate should be avoided if the government
is concerned about containing the debt-GDP ratio or if the goal of the policy-maker is to improve
welfare.
What constitutes ample scal space or a \safe level of debt" to conduct countercyclical policy
while ensuring debt sustainability? The last chapter addresses the question by exploring the relationship
between debt dynamics, and the probabilistic distribution of the primary balance and
the eective interest rate. Using this approach, we nd that two-thirds of Low-Income Developing
Countries (LIDCs) presently have scal policy space to address adverse shocks, subject to the
availability of domestic and external nancing. Countries with strong institutional capacity tend to
have more scal space: seventy-ve percent of countries with high and medium institutional capacity
maintain debt levels below both their \debt sustainability ceiling" and their \safe debt" level
estimated in this paper. Countries with strong institutional capacity tend to
have more scal space: seventy-ve percent of countries with high and medium institutional capacity
maintain debt levels below both their \debt sustainability ceiling" and their \safe debt" level
estimated in this paper. Countries with weak institutional capacity, mostly countries in con
ict
and fragile states, tend to lack scal space.
12
Wang, Xuefeng. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis : An Overview of the PIIGS". Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Economics, Finance and Statistics, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-18466.
Resumo:
The purpose of this thesis is to examine the effects of macroeconomic indicators on the government debt of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIIGS), based on the data from 1990 to 2010 and employed a panel data model. The research finds that the macroeconomc conditions of the PIIGS are all deteriorated to some extent, and these deteriorations lead the accumulation of government debt. The expansionary fiscal policy is an important factor that accounts for the high debt ratio of the PIIGS. On the other hand, the discrepancy between the unified monetary policy and the separated fiscal policy obstructs the adjustment mechanism by the individual government, and leads the exchange rate and interest rate instruments not efficient.
13
Jang, Hee Chang. "Essays on household debt, macroprudential policy and monetary policy in South Korea". Thesis, Durham University, 2017. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/12343/.
Resumo:
Household debt in South Korea is high and still rising. Household debt to GDP ratio had risen at the similar pace with that in the US until 2007 but it has still been rising whereas it has been falling since 2017 in the US. As a result, it is now higher in South Korea than in the US. There was a dramatic growth in household debt in the US preceding the recent Great Recession and high level of household debt was viewed to amplify the severity of economic recession in the US constraining consumer spending. In this context, high and continuously rising household debt could be a potential risk factor for the South Korean economy. Macroprudential policy, which indicates policy aims to reduce financial systemic risk pre-emptively, is a crucial measure to slow down the pace of household debt growth in South Korea. However, there is no established tool to analyse or evaluate its effects and relationship to monetary policy. The second chapter presents the trend and distribution of household debt in South Korea, and brief history of policy responses to continuously increasing household debt. The third chapter shows how macroprudential policy works by using a simple heterogeneous DSGE model with collateral constraint. The model is based on so-called borrower-saver model. Despite of its simplicity, the model can clearly explain how macroprudential policy affects household debt and related variables in South Korea. In addition, dynamics of this model imply increasing amortisation rate is superior measure to decreasing LTV ratio because it induces less volatility in economy. The collateral constraint in this thesis is designed to distinguish household debt (stock) and borrowing (flow). As a result, it is more realistic than the one mostly used in literature. This collateral constraint setting contributes to the better results especially when we analyse the phase of tightening household credit conditions. Furthermore, it enables us to see how amortization rate affects the South Korean economy. The fourth chapter extends the model mainly to see how credit tightening and monetary policy work differently and how they interact. Habit formation in non-durable good consumption, price rigidity in non-durable good producers, fixed cost in intermediate good production and monetary policy are added in the model. Not only the newly added elements themselves but also inflation make model's responses different from those in the previous chapter. Nominal and real rigidities make dynamics last longer and more realistic. Due to the structure of collateral constraint, a rise in inflation can reduce the level of real household debt whereas there is no inflation effect on real household debt with the common type of collateral constraint. This also influences responses to monetary policy shock. The results demonstrate credit tightening is better than monetary policy in slowing down the growth rate of household debt. Among all policy measures considered, decreasing amortization rate is the most effective and increasing LTV ratio is the second. These implies that ongoing policy efforts to slow down the growth rate of household debt in South Korea is on the right track. The fifth chapter shows welfare effects of macroprudential policy. The results illustrate it is impossible to get social welfare gains in a situation given in South Korea when discretionary macroprudential policy comes into effect. If government adopts countercyclical macroprudential rule, it is possible to improve social welfare but it requires welfare loss either of borrower or saver.
14
Yildirim, Canan. "Liberalisation before stabilisation : policy and performance in Turkish banking". Thesis, Lancaster University, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.310337.
15
Ezer, Mehmet Onur. "Essays in Macroeconomic and Macroprudential Policies". Thesis, Boston College, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:108089.
Resumo:
Thesis advisor: Peter IrelandThesis advisor: Christopher Baum
In this dissertation, I focus on macroeconomic and macroprudential policies. In Chapter 1, I study the effectiveness of macroprudential policy tools on bank risk. The findings show that although macroprudential policy tools can stabilize the financial system, under certain conditions, they might have perverse effects. In Chapter 2, I examine monetary aggregates, and show that once measured correctly, they can be useful in gauging the stance of monetary policy. In Chapter 3, by studying the deter- minants of sovereign debt crises, I aim at improving our understanding of sovereign debt distress, and also strengthening the toolkit for crisis prevention. Chapter 1: Following the 2007-2009 financial crisis, there has been an increase in the use of macroprudential policy tools – such as loan-to-value ratio caps and interbank exposure limits – to achieve financial stability. Existing research on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy has focused on country-level variables such as total credit growth and house price inflation. In “The Effectiveness of Macropruden- tial Policy on Bank Risk,” I study how the effectiveness of macroprudential policy varies across banks and policy tools. Using system GMM on bank-level data from 30 European countries for the time period between 2000 and 2014, I document that stricter regulation in the form of exposure limitations tends to decrease banks’ risk levels whereas capital-based tools tend to induce higher risk-taking. After a policy tightening, loan loss provisions and non-performing loans ratios of banks suffering losses can increase substantially, up to five percentage points, while they are likely to decrease for profitable banks. Constraining activities by stricter regulation can lead to a search for yield. Therefore, policy designers should pay particular attention to the increase in risk-taking following policy tightening, especially by banks suffering losses. Chapter 2: It is crucial for policymakers to successfully gauge the stance of mon- etary policy and understand the mechanisms through which it affects the economy. Conventional models focus on interest rates alone, and omit monetary aggregates from policy discussions. In “Do Monetary Aggregates Belong in a Monetary Model? Evidence from the UK,” I examine whether augmenting the measure of monetary policy with monetary aggregates helps in drawing more robust links between policy and economic fluctuations. After constructing the Divisia money index for the United Kingdom, I employ structural vector autoregression to identify two different episodes of UK monetary policy regimes. Inclusion of this (correct) measure of the quantity of money and disentangling money supply from money demand remedy the price and liquidity puzzles which frequently appear in the vector autoregression literature. The results point to the informational content embedded in monetary aggregates, and suggest that monetary aggregates should be taken into account while evaluating monetary policy. Chapter 3: In assessing debt sustainability for advanced and emerging markets, the IMF’s Market Access Countries’ Debt Sustainability Analysis (MAC DSA) com- pares the levels of debt and gross financing needs (GFNs) against benchmarks sepa- rately derived from the noise-to-signal approach. In “Determinants of Sovereign Debt Crises,” I identify the main factors that contribute to sovereign debt crises. I take into account a broad range of debt distress drivers, including debt levels and gross fi- nancing needs, but also debt composition, macroeconomic fundamentals, and country characteristics such as whether the country is a small state or member of a currency union. By using the estimation results, I first derive an indicative cutoff probability of debt distress level. Then, I calculate the corresponding thresholds for debt variables, above which countries are predicted to experience an episode of debt distress
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2018
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
16
Rahman, F. U. "An empirical investigation of the debt policies of U.K. companies". Thesis, University of Manchester, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.376263.
17
Rummelhoff, Victoria. "A Critical Examination of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio and Its Implications for Policy-Making in Selected OECD Eonomies, Between 1995 and 2015". Thesis, Griffith University, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/381272.
Resumo:
The debt-to-GDP ratio is the most reported debt index by institutional, and the
predominantly quantitative literature on sovereign debt relies heavily on the GDP-ratio,
as it allows for cross-country analysis and generalisation of theoretical conclusions,
regardless of differences in the size of economies and currency denominations of debt.
However, these aspects are unlikely to be valuable for national policy-makers. Economies
with the same debt-to-GDP ratio levels can have very different underlying economic and
fiscal dynamics that impact repayment capacity and debt sustainability, due to distinctive
combinations of economic structures, fiscal balances, taxation rates, government assets
and qualitative debt portfolio features. Ultimately, some economies can sustain a much
higher debt-ratio levels compared to others. Therefore, the research problem explored
here is how universal the debt-to-GDP ratio really is, and how can it effectively assist
policy-makers and promote sustainable fiscal and debt policies if it is not universal? By
answering these two questions: what are the limitations of the GDP-ratio; and how
influential is the GDP-ratio within policy-making, this research addresses two gaps in the
literature. Firstly, the lack of critical investigation of the debt-to-GDP ratio; and
secondly, highlighting the level of influence and value of the measurement within
governmental policy-making and institutional analysis and assistance. Overall, the two
questions allow this research to highlight how economic, fiscal and qualitative debt
portfolio features decreases the measurement’s universal nature, and to answer the
overarching question: how accurate and valuable is the debt-to-GDP ratio from a policymaking
perspective?
This research is pragmatic and uses a mixed-method case-study approach to combine
quantitative macroeconomic data between 1995 and 2015 and qualitative interview data
to investigate the debt-to-GDP ratio measurement in Greece, Ireland, Norway and
Australia. Additionally, the research investigates the perceptions and use of the
measurement within the IMF, the World Bank and the UN. The research uses qualitative
analysis methods, including analytical comparisons, pattern matching, and parallel
demonstrations, as well as fundamental mathematical calculations, to disclose a
combination of quantitative and qualitative limitations and inaccuracies of the debt-to-
GDP ratio measurement. The interview data collected from governmental and
institutional representatives supports and supplements the quantitative data findings, while determining the level of influence and value the measurement within policymaking.
The key findings show that four areas produce limitations in the debt-to-GDP ratio, that
challenge the accuracy and value of the GDP-ratio measurement for policy-making.
Firstly, there are inaccuracies in the debt-to-GDP ratio’s ability to portray monetary debt
trends, due to comparative growth rates in the nominal GDP and debt, and fluctuations
in commodity prices and demand. Secondly, different objectives underlying government
borrowing impacts the sustainability of GDP-ratio levels in different economies. Thirdly,
the debt-to-GDP ratio inaccurately portrays debt relative to repayment capacities, due to
variations in budget balances and total and taxation revenue-ratio levels; disparities in the
governments’ non-taxation revenue flows demonstrating different reliance on taxation
revenues within their total revenues; and different growth rates in taxation revenues
compared to nominal GDP among the case-study economies. Fourthly, the GDP-ratio
lack insight into the maturity, interest-rate and external debt compositions of economies’
debt portfolios, which greatly impacts the repayment capacity and the insightfulness of
the debt-to-GDP ratio in relation to debt sustainability. Combined, the limitations and
inaccuracies and the different economic, fiscal and qualitative debt portfolio dynamics
demonstrates that the measurement is not universal across countries nor static over time.
In general, the interview data show that the debt-to-GDP ratio can be valuable to assess
long-term debt trends and projections in comparison to economic growth trends;
however, it is not valuable for short-term, budget and debt policy formulations. This is
due to the country-specific and general limitations of the measurements, that decreases
the usefulness and reliance on the measurement as a policy and analysis tool.
The key practical implications of this research are that the GDP-ratio measurement
needs to be assessed in combination with a range of measurements to be able to
effectively ensure sustainable fiscal and debt policies. The key theoretical implication
establishes that research using the GDP-ratio needs to take into account country-specific
economic and fiscal features and qualitative debt portfolio aspects. By grouping together
countries with similar quantitative and qualitative features, regional institutions can
develop more appropriate guidelines to promote increased economic and fiscal security,
while theories can develop more accurate debt-to-GDP ratio denominated conclusions for different country groups. Additionally, this research finds that the GDP-ratio may
not be the optimal measurement to determine the impact of high debt on economic
growth.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Dept Intnl Bus&Asian Studies
Griffith Business School
Full Text
18
Aldama, Pierre. "Essays on fiscal policy and public debt sustainability". Thesis, Paris 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA01E016/document.
Resumo:
Cette thèse contribue à l'analyse de la soutenabilité de la dette publique et des règles budgétaires en macroéconomie. Elle tire sa motivation des multiples preuves empiriques de l'existence de régimes budgétaires insoutenables durant lesquels le solde primaire ne s’accroît pas suite à un accroissement de la dette publique. Ces régimes insoutenables menacent-ils nécessairement la soutenabilité de la dette publique à long-terme ? Si non, combien de temps la politique budgétaire peut-elle rester périodiquement insoutenable sans être globalement insoutenable ? Le premier chapitre apporte une réponse théorique à cette question et propose un test de type "Model-Based Sustainability" étendu aux changements de régimes (RS-MBS). Nous étudions une règle budgétaire à changement de régime Markovien, dont l'un des régimes est insoutenable, et définissons des conditions suffisantes pour exclure un Jeu de Ponzi et pour garantir la stabilité du ratio dette/PIB à long terme. Le second chapitre propose d'appliquer le test RS-MBS à la politique budgétaire française entre 1962 et 2013. Il montre que la prise en compte des changements de régime peut inverser les résultats empiriques précédents et conclure à la soutenabilité de la dette publique française sur l'ensemble de la période. Le troisième chapitre traite d'un autre cas de régime insoutenable, quand la politique budgétaire est contrainte par sa limite fiscale, et étudie l'effet de la maturité de la dette sur le seuil d'endettement public maximal. Nous montrons que l'allongement de la maturité de la dette n'accroît pas le seuil de défaut stochastique quand le défaut survient à cause de chocs négatifs sur la productivité. Enfin. le quatrième chapitre propose une appréciation critique de l'architecture budgétaire de l'UEM, à partir d'une revue de la littérature traitant de la soutenabilité budgétaire. de l'interaction des politiques monétaires et budgétaires et des règles budgétaires en union monétaireThis thesis contributes to the analysis of public debt sustainability and fiscal rules. It starts from the multiple empirical evidence that points to the existence of unsustainable fiscal regimes during which fiscal policy does not increase its primary surplus following an increase of public debt. Do unsustainable fiscal regimes necessarily threaten the long-run sustainability of public debt? If not, how long can fiscal policy be periodically unsustainable without being globally unsustainable? The first chapter answers theoretically this question and proposes a Regime-Switching ModelBased Sustainability (RS-MBS) test. We study a Markov-switching fiscal policy rule, which displays an unsustainable fiscal regime, and derive sufficient conditions for the No-Ponzi Game condition and for a globally stable public debt-to-GDP ratio. The second chapter proposes an empirical application of the RS-MBS to France's fiscal policy between 1962 and 2013. It shows that taking into account regime switches can overturn former results and conclude that France's public debt has been sustainable overall the period. The third chapter considers another case of unsustainable regime, when fiscal policy is constrained by the fiscal limit, and studies the effect of public debt maturity on the debt limit. We show that longer debt maturities do not increase the stochastic default threshold when sovereign default is triggered by bad productivity shocks. Finally, the fourth chapter proposes a critical appraisal of the fiscal architecture of the EMU, based on a literature survey about fiscal sustainability, monetary-fiscal interactions and fiscal rules in monetary unions
19
Kaponen, Alva, e Lisa Engberg. "Från policy till praktik : Det systematiska kvalitetsarbetet inom det svenska skolväsendet". Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-138791.
Resumo:
Bakgrund När en styrfilosofi ska implementeras behöver den översättas till praktik i den organisatoriska kontexten. I denna interaktion mellan styrfilosofi och organisatorisk kontext kan problematik uppstå som kan leda till att implementeringen misslyckas eller att styrfilosofins innebörd förändras i översättningsarbetet. Det systematiska kvalitetsarbetet infördes inom det svenska skolväsendet för att öka kvaliteten på utbildningsverksamheten men aktuella undersökningar visar en negativ trend gällande elevers kunskapsresultat. Detta indikerar att det kan finnas brister i den rådande kvalitetsstyrningen inom skolväsendet varvid det är av vikt att studera översättningen av styrfilosofin från policy till praktik. Syfte Studiens syfte är att öka förståelsen för översättning från styrfilosofi till praktik i offentlig tjänsteverksamhet samt öka förståelsen för den problematik som kan uppstå i översättningsarbetet. Metod Studien utgår från ett fenomenologiskt perspektiv med en iterativ ansats och utgörs av en kvalitativ små-N-studie. Det empiriska materialet har inhämtats genom intervjuer med sju rektorer för kommunala grundskolor i Uppsala kommun samt stödmaterial för det systematiska kvalitetsarbetet publicerat av Skolverket. Slutsats Studien har visat att rektorns roll som translator av det systematiska kvalitetsarbetet är kritisk för den organisatoriska praktiken samtidigt som rollen präglas av komplexitet vilket leder till problematik i översättningsarbetet. Komplexiteten kan härledas framförallt från den organisatoriska kontexten i form av offentlig tjänsteverksamhet men även från tvetydighet i styrfilosofin. Vidare har studien identifierat att öppenhet och flexibilitet till förändring är en viktig translatorkompetens vid översättning av en styrfilosofi till praktik i offentlig tjänsteverksamhet.Introduction When implementing a management philosophy into an organization, it needs to be translated into practice in the organizational context. In this interaction between management philosophy and organizational context, problems can arise that may cause the implementation to fail or the meaning of the management philosophy to change during the translation process. The systematic quality work was introduced in the Swedish school system to increase the quality of education, but current surveys show a negative trend in students educational outcomes. This indicates that there may be shortcomings in the current quality management in the school system, hence a study of the translation of the management philosophy from policy to practice is of importance. Purpose The aim of the study is to contribute to an increased understanding of translation of a management philosophy into practice in public service and to increase understanding of the problems that may occur during the translation process. Method The study is based on a phenomenological perspective with an iterative approach and consists of a qualitative small-N study. The empirical material has been collected through interviews with seven principals for municipal elementary schools in Uppsala municipality as well as support material for the systematic quality work published by the Swedish National Agency for Education. Conclusion The study has shown that the principal´s role as translator of the systematic quality work is critical for the organizational practice while the role is characterized by complexity, which leads to problems in the translation process. The complexity can be derived primarily from the organizational context in the form of public service, but also from ambiguity in the management philosophy. Furthermore, the study has identified that openness and flexibility for change is an important translator's competence when translating a management philosophy into organizational practice in public service.
20
鄭會欣 e Hwei-shing Cheng. "Foreign debt policy of the Nationalist government, 1927-37". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1991. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31210193.
21
Monogios, Yannis A. "Debt, savings and aggregate profits : does fiscal policy matter?" Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.624600.
22
Lo, Kwan-tung, e 羅君東. "Indebtedness of Hong Kong police officers: gambling or overspending?" Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2000. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B42575540.
23
Viegi, Nicola. "Fiscal interdependence, fiscal and monetary policy interaction and the optimal design of EMU". Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 1999. http://oleg.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=21416.
Resumo:
The research looks at the design of fiscal and monetary policy in EMU. The characteristics of the "economic constitution" established in the Maastricht treaty are analysed to test their robustness to different hypothesis about fiscal sustainability and fiscal and monetary policy interaction. Chapter two illustrates how the possibility of default of public debt in one large member country creates interdependence among fiscal positions of all member countries. Chapter three and four show that a similar kind of interdependence between national fiscal position could be determined by the effect that un-funded fiscal expansions have on the level of prices. The theoretical argument, borrowed from the so called Fiscal Theory of Price Determination, is developed both in a closed economy, to illustrate the basic mechanism and its interpretation, and in a two country monetary union model. Chapter five analyses, in a game theoretical framework, how the interdependence between policy instruments should be recognised in full, in order for any policy to be effective. In a situation in which a possible conflict of objectives or preferences between policy makers is present, any institutional arrangements which does not deal with it positively is intrinsically inefficient and can result in the policies cancelling each other out. The last chapter develops an example on how the conflict between policy institutions can be endogenous to an institutional structure chosen to reduce the influence of policy uncertainty on the economy. It is therefore a note of caution about the common belief that is possible with simple institutional solutions to overcome differences in preferences or objectives that are characteristic of the European environment. The analysis suggests that both greater fiscal policies cooperation and decentralisation of policy institutions from national to regional are developments necessary to achieve the policy goals of the Monetary Union.
24
Equiza, Goni Juan. "Fiscal policy analysis of highly indebted economies". Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209057.
Resumo:
The financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to a large increase in the government debt of all advanced economies. In the United States, the debt burden reached levels not seen since the Second World War. In Europe, high fiscal stress evolved into a sovereign debt crisis. My thesis focuses on debt dynamics in advanced economies and the design of policies that can stabilize their fiscal burden. In the first chapter, I provide new evidence and theory on US debt dynamics and their relation with long-term growth forecasts. In the second chapter, I document a novel dataset on the maturity structure of sovereign debt of Euro Area (EA) countries and study the effect of the maturity composition on debt dynamics. Finally, in the third chapter, I analyze empirically the role of debt management in stabilizing the fiscal burden of countries in the EA.Chapter 1: Sovereign Debt in the US and Growth Expectations
This chapter studies the effect of changes in expectations of long-term GDP growth on US government debt and deficits. Long-term growth expectations are an essential determinant of expected future revenue growth and fiscal solvency. I present evidence that US government debt and deficits are positively correlated with long-term GDP (and revenue) growth forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office between 1984 and 2012. This is robust to controlling for current growth and to using à-la-Kalman estimated forecasts for a longer time span. This stylized fact is novel in the macroeconomics literature and I develop a new model of government behavior that explains it.
My model features endogenous (forward-looking) purchasing behavior for the government. This distinguishes my model from standard macro theories that assume exogenous government purchases, or ad-hoc backward looking policy rules for government purchases. It builds on the recent ‘long-run risks’ literature by assuming shocks to the trend growth rate of total factor productivity. The model matches the observed positive correlation between fiscal deficits and the trend growth rate, based on the government’s desire to smooth public consumption over periods of higher (or lower) long-run productivity growth.
Chapter 2: Government Debt Maturity and Debt Dynamics in EA Countries
This chapter presents a new comprehensive database on sovereign debt stocks and yields, at all maturities, for six EA countries: Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy and Spain between 1991 and 2013. I constructed this database by combining information from different sources (treasuries, national central banks and statistical offices), on a security-by-security basis. A recent literature has shown the importance of debt maturity management in the US - e.g. Hall and Sargent (2011) - however, due to lack of data, this key issue remained unstudied for the EA. Thus, I use my database to study the effect of debt maturity management on the evolution of government debt in EA countries.
My main finding is that debt maturity also had an important effect in debt dynamics of the EA. The debt maturity structure affects debt dynamics because longer maturity shields the government budget from changes in interest rates. In general, interest rates in the EA have fallen since 1991 while treasuries in the region extended debt maturity. Thus, an increasing number of long-term bondholders experienced large capital gains. Counterfactual simulations show the impact of a different maturity structure on the evolution of debt and suggest that extending debt maturity in 2014 and 2015 would result in lower debt ratios by 2022. I also estimate the debt-to-GDP erosion induced by higher current and future inflation and find that inflation would lower the fiscal burden in EA countries much more than in the US.
Chapter 3: Quantifying the Role of Debt Management for Fiscal Self-Insurance in the EA
The last chapter provides evidence of debt management being an effective tool for protecting the government budget from fiscal spending shocks in the EA. In particular, I document that sovereign bonds of EA countries had a significantly lower real return in response to government spending shocks between 1991 and 2013. Importantly, longer bond maturity generally implied a larger drop in returns. This is in line with theories claiming that long-term debt provides fiscal self-insurance. However, my finding suggests that medium-term debt is more effective in hedging against spending shocks.
I identify government spending shocks in a Structural VAR model estimated with both aggregated quarterly fiscal data for the EA and stacked data from individual countries. I also use a simple FAVAR model to distinguish between common and idiosyncratic (country-specific) shocks and document that the former risk was hedged more effectively. The introduction of the Euro reduced the absorption of idiosyncratic shocks (relative to common shocks) by bond returns. However, the European debt crisis brought the degree of fiscal self-insurance against country-specific shocks back to pre-Euro levels. Finally, debt maturity seems to play a minor role in the absorption of country-specific shocks by the return on sovereign bonds.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
25
Sgouridis, Sgouris P. "Integrating regional strategic transportation planning and supply chain management : along the path to sustainability". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/58666.
Resumo:
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program; and, (S.M. in Transportation)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2005.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 125-131).
A systems perspective for regional strategic transportation planning (RSTP) for freight movements involves an understanding of Supply Chain Management (SCM). This thesis argues that private sector freight shippers and carriers do not simply need capacity improvements from the regional transportation system, but also a subtle understanding by public sector planners of their supply chain needs. The private and the public sector have different agendas and planning horizons but at the same time may have common interests in the region that involve economic robustness, environmental health, and social cohesiveness what is known as sustainability. We investigate how the largely public sector RSTP and private-sector SCM relate and suggest architectures for an integrated RSTP/SCM planning process.
by Sgouris P. Sgouridis.
S.M.in Transportation
S.M.
26
Xin, Xiaodai. "Three essays on monetary policy and financial development". Connect to this title online, 2004. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1092423450.
Resumo:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2004.Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xi, 102 p.; also includes graphics (some col.) Includes bibliographical references (p. 98-102). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center
27
Ball, Christopher Patrick. "Capital mobility and sudden stops consequences and policy options /". Texas A&M University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1969/54.
28
Caprioli, Francesco. "Optimal fiscal policy, limited commitment and learning". Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7396.
Resumo:
Esta tesis trata sobre cómo la autoridad fiscal debe fijar los impuestos distorsivos de manera óptima. El capítulo 1 analiza el problema de la política fiscal cuando el gobierno tiene un incentivo a hacer default con su deuda externa. El capítulo 2 trata sobre el problema de la política fiscal cuando los agentes no conocen cómo el gobierno fija las tasas impositivas. La principal conclusión que obtengo es que, en ambos contextos, el resultado de suavidad de las tasas, que es estándar en la literatura de imposición óptima, se rompe. Cuando los gobiernos no tienen una tecnología de compromiso, los impuestos responden a los incentivos de default; cuando los agentes poseen información parcial sobre el modelo subyacente de la economía, los impuestos dependen de sus expectativas sobre los mismos.This thesis is about how fiscal authority should optimally set dissorting taxes. Chapter 1 deals with the optimal fiscal policy problem when the government has an incentive to default on external debt. Chapter 2 deals with the optimal fiscal policy problem when households do not know how government sets taxes. The main conclusion I get is that, in each of these two contexts, the tax smoothing result, which is the standars result in the optimal taxation literature, is broken. When governments do not have a commitment technology taxes respond to the incentives to default; when agents have partial information about the underlying economic model, taxes depend on their beliefs about it.
29
Blas, Pérez Beatriz de. "Essays on Monetary and Fiscal Policy". Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/4035.
Resumo:
Esta tesis estudia cuestiones de política monetaria y fiscal en macroeconomías con fricciones financieras. El Capítulo 1 analiza numéricamente el funcionamiento de reglas de política monetaria en economías con y sin imperfecciones financieras. El capítulo compara una política monetaria endógena con una regla de crecimiento del dinero constante en un escenario de participación limitada. Las imperfecciones surgen por información asimétrica en la producción de capital. El modelo se ajusta bastante bien a los datos de EE.UU. El escenario con imperfecciones financieras es capaz de reflejar algunos hechos estilizados del ciclo económico, como la relación negativa entre producto y prima de riesgo, que no aparecen en el caso estándar sin fricciones. El uso de reglas de tipos de interés en un modelo de participación limitada tiene efectos estabilizadores contrarios a los de los modelos neo-Keynesianos. Concretamente, en un modelo de participación limitada, usar reglas de tipos de interés ayuda a estabilizar producto e inflación frente a un shock tecnológico, mientras que existe un trade-off entre estabilizar producto e inflación si el shock es a la demanda de dinero. Finalmente, los efectos de una regla de Taylor son más fuertes -más estabilizadores o más desestabilizadores- cuando hay fricciones financieras.
El Capítulo 2 utiliza datos de EE.UU. de posguerra para analizar si las fricciones financieras pueden haber contribuido a reducir la variabilidad del producto y la inflación desde los 80. Los datos sobre producto, inflación, tipo de interés y prima de riesgo indican un punto de ruptura en 1981:2, tras el cual estas variables son menos volátiles. El modelo anterior se utiliza aquí para calibrar una regla de tipos de interés para cada submuestra. Sin fricciones financieras, los resultados confirman el reconocido cambio en la política monetaria al presentar reglas bastante diferentes antes y después de 1981:2. Sin embargo, en contraste con la literatura empírica, la calibración no refleja un mayor peso sobre la estabilización de la inflación después de 1981:2. Sorprendentemente, con un nivel positivo de costes de control, la calibración presenta dos reglas mucho menos distintas que aquellas encontradas en ausencia de imperfecciones. Las reglas calibradas sí que asignan un mayor peso a la estabilización de la inflación y menor a la del producto tras 1981:2, a diferencia del caso de costes de control cero. Cuando la regla, costes de control, y shocks cambian entre submuestras, la calibración presenta dos reglas con más peso a la estabilización de la inflación y menos a la del producto después de 1981:2. El grado de fricciones financieras cae un 10% tras 1981:2.
El Capítulo 3 estudia las consecuencias en crecimiento y bienestar de imponer límites de deuda a la restricción presupuestaria del gobierno. El modelo presenta crecimiento endógeno y permite al gasto público tener dos papeles diferentes, bien como factor productivo o bien como servicios en la función de utilidad (en este caso, el capital privado genera crecimiento.) En el largo plazo, sin límites de deuda, mayores impuestos sobre el trabajo reducen el crecimiento, independientemente del papel desempeñado por el gasto público. Con límites de deuda, mayores impuestos sobre el trabajo aumentan el crecimiento si el gasto público es productivo. También se analiza la dinámica de una política fiscal más restrictiva para alcanzar un límite de deuda menor, cuando el gasto público es productivo. Mayores impuestos sobre el trabajo para reducir la deuda llevan a un nuevo estado estacionario con mayor crecimiento y menores impuestos, debido al papel productivo del gasto público. Igualmente, un menor ratio de gasto público-producto reduce el crecimiento y producto. Mayores impuestos sobre el trabajo conllevan menos costes de bienestar que cortes en el gasto público para reducir la deuda.
This dissertation analyzes monetary and fiscal policy issues in macroeconomies with financial frictions.
Chapter 1 analyzes numerically the performance of monetary policy rules in economies with and without financial imperfections. Endogenously driven monetary policy is compared to a constant money growth rule in a limited participation framework. The imperfections arise due to asymmetric information emerging in the production of capital. The model economy fits US data reasonably well. The setup with financial imperfections is able to account for some stylized facts of the business cycle, like the negative correlation between output and risk premium, which are absent in the standard frictionless case. The use of interest rate rules in a limited participation model has the opposite stabilization effects compared with new Keynesian models. More concretely, in a limited participation model, using interest rate rules helps stabilize both output and inflation in the face of technology shocks, whereas there is a trade-off between stabilizing output and inflation if the shock is to money demand. Finally, the effects of a Taylor rule are stronger -either more strongly stabilizing or more strongly destabilizing- when there are financial frictions in the economy.
In Chapter 2, postwar US data are employed to analyze whether financial frictions may have contributed to reduce the variability of output and inflation since the 1980s. Data on output, inflation, interest rate, and risk premium indicate a structural break at 1981:2, after which these variables become less volatile. The model economy of Chapter 1 is used to calibrate an interest rate rule for each subsample. Without financial frictions, the results confirm the widely recognized change in the conduct of monetary policy by reporting substantially different rules before and after 1981:2. However, in contrast with empirical literature, the calibration fails to assign more weight to inflation stabilization after 1981:2. Interestingly, when a positive level of monitoring costs is introduced, the procedure yields two calibrated rules that are much less different than those found in the absence of frictions. Furthermore, the calibrated rules do report a stronger weight to inflation and less to output stabilization after 1981:2, as opposed to the zero monitoring costs case. When the rule, monitoring costs, and shocks are allowed to change across subsamples, the calibration reports two interest rate rules that assign more weight to inflation and less to output stabilization after 1981:2. Also, the degree of financial frictions is 10% less after 1981:2.
Chapter 3 studies the growth and welfare consequences of imposing debt limits on the government budget constraint. The model economy displays endogenous growth and allows public spending to have two different roles, either as productive input or as services in the utility function (in this case private capital drives growth). Introducing debt limits is determinant for the growth effects of different fiscal policies. In the long run, without debt limits, the growth effects of raising taxes on labor income are negative regardless of the role of government spending. Interestingly, with debt limits, higher labor tax rates affect positively growth if government spending is productive. The chapter also analyzes the dynamic effects of imposing a more restrictive fiscal policy in order to attain a debt limit with a lower debt to output ratio, for the case of productive government spending. Raising taxes to lower debt leads to a new balanced growth path with higher growth and lower taxes, because of the productive role of government spending. By the same reason, a fiscal policy consisting of reducing government spending over output has the opposite effects, reducing growth and output. Finally, raising labor income taxes implies a lower welfare cost of reducing debt than does cutting spending.
30
Becker, Torbjörn. "Essays on stochastic fiscal policy, public debt and private consumption". Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Samhällsekonomi (S), 1995. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-882.
Resumo:
This dissertation consists of five separate essays (and a short introductory chapter) that analyze the effects of debt policy on private consumption. Essay 1: Government Debt and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence. The Ricardian equivalence theorem has been widely debated since (at least) the seventies. The theorem states that households should not change their consumption path in response to changed timing of taxes, given the path of government consumption. In this essay, theoretical models giving rise to the equivalence result as well as models predicting deviations from debt neutrality are presented. In general, the Ricardian models are based on unrealistic assumptions, such as infinite horizons, perfect capital markets and lump-sum taxes. The issue of Ricardian equivalence is thus perhaps better viewed as a question concerning to what extent the equivalence hypothesis is a reasonable approximation of the real world. This could only be established by empirical studies. To formulate a test of Ricardian equivalence, it is however vital to extend the standard analysis in deterministic models to stochastic models. In a stochastic model we need to incorporate the fact that agents have to make predictions about future levels of government consumption, and that public debt might be a useful predictor for that purpose. It is therefore necessary that an empirical study distinguishes between debt as a potential source of net wealth, which is the concern of the equivalence proposition, and debt's role as a signal of future levels of government consumption, which is due to the stochastic nature of the world. It is argued that there are few empirical studies that make this distinction, and in case the distinction is made, the evidence is in favor of the Ricardian equivalence proposition, namely that public debt is not net wealth to households. Changing the timing of taxes will therefore not change private consumption. In other words, although the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is burdened with unrealistic assumptions, it seems (historically) to provide a reasonable approximation of actual data. Essay 2: An Investigation of Ricardian Equivalence in a Common Trends Model. A common trends model for gross national income, private consumption, government consumption and net taxes is estimated on US data. The system has two cointegrating vectors and thus two common stochastic trends, interpreted as a technology trend and a public sector trend. The two temporary shocks are interpreted as a private demand and government financing shock, respectively. Theoretical models suggest that the two cointegrating vectors could be due to the private and public sectors' intertemporal budget constraints. We find two co-integrating vectors, as predicted by no-Ponzi game constraints on the sectors. However, a stronger version of the no-Ponzi game constraint is a solvency condition, which implies particular co-integrating vectors. These cointegration vectors are both rejected for the sample period, indicating that the public sector will not be able to repay its debt if the current policy is maintained. However, the private sector is at the same time accumulating wealth, which is consistent with predictions from a Ricardian model. Further, the equivalence theorem predicts that private consumption should be unaffected by financing shocks. Data, however, indicate that there is a significant short run effect on both income and private consumption from the financing shock, but the effect indicates that increasing taxes is accompanied by increasing private consumption, contrary to both standard Ricardian and Keynesian models. In the theoretical world, this type of pattern could be generated in models with risk averse individuals and uncertainty about future taxes. Essay 3: Risky Taxes, Budget Balance Preserving Spreads and Precautionary Savings. This essay analyzes the effects on consumption from changes in the riskiness of taxes. It starts by reinterpreting the Sandmo [1970] paper on general capital income risk to the case of risky capital taxation. In his framework the concept of a mean preserving spread (MPS) is used for the risk analysis. In connection with risky taxes it is however possible to explicitly connect the tax risk with the government's budget constraint. In this essay the concept of a budget balance preserving spread (BBPS) is developed and used for the analysis of stochastic taxes. The essay is concluded with a comparison of the effects that a MPS and a BBPS has on consumption decisions. It is shown that the comparative statics results for a BBPS could be different from the results obtained with a MPS. Essay 4: Budget Deficits, Tax Risk and Consumption. This essay analyzes the effects of budget deficits on consumption when individual taxes are stochastic. It is shown that the co-movements between budget deficits and private consumption will depend on how risk averse individuals are. In the case of lump-sum taxes, it is sufficient to assume that individuals have a precautionary savings motive to obtain the result that consumption today will decrease with increased disposable income today. Furthermore, if we use a time separable iso-elastic utility funcition, the standard analysis of capital income risk predicts (precautionary) savings to increase with increased risk if the coefficient of relative risk aversion is greater than one. This is no longer sufficient when the risk is due to uncertain capital income taxes. In general, the coefficient must be greater than one to obtain precautionary savings in response to the greater risk implied by a budget deficit. The results in the paper are consistent with Ricardian equivalence only for some specific utility function, but not in general. However, in the same way, the results are consistent with standard Keynesian models that display a positive relation between debt and private consumption only for certain utility functions, and could equally well generate the opposite result for individuals that are enough risk averse or prudent, without changing the expected value of government consumption. In other words, if future taxes are uncertain, increased disposable income in the present period will decrease present consumption, if households are prudent enough. Essay 5: Budget Deficits, Stochastic Population Size and Consumption. This paper analyzes the effects on present consumption of budget deficits under different assumptions regarding demographics. In the first part, birth and death rates are deterministic, and in the second part, birth rates are assumed to be stochastic. In the case of a deterministic population size, an increase in public debt raises present consumption, if the (deterministic) birth rate is greater than zero, while with a zero birth rate we obtain debt neutrality. This is consistent with the results in Blanchard [1985] and Buiter [1988]. However, for the case of stochastic birth rates, it is shown that we can obtain the result that present consumption will decrease when public debt is increased, both when we have a zero expected birth rate, and when the expected population size is assumed to be constant, so that the expected birth rate is positive and equal to the death rate. The explanation is that with an uncertain birth rate, the future tax base is uncertain, which makes per capita taxes uncertain in the future. Shifting taxes to the future thus implies greater uncertainty about future net income, and induces precautionary savings.Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.
31
Knox, Fraser William. "Essays on fiscal policy and the pricing of sovereign debt". Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2014. http://oleg.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=24372.
Resumo:
This thesis consists of three essays which relate to the conduct of fiscal policy and the pricing of sovereign debt. The first chapter examines the credibility of official budgetary projections produced by the fiscal authorities of EU member states, as required under the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact. Drawing upon existing studies, evidence is presented which demonstrates that these official projections are characterised by optimism bias, i.e. announced budgetary adjustments persistently falls short of those observed in practice. This chapter contributes to the existing literature by identifying a systematic link between the magnitude of this optimism bias and the degree of fragmentation which characterises the government: whereby greater fragmentation of this type coincides with a tendency to submit more optimistic projections. Numerical fiscal rules are then considered as a mechanism for improving the credibility of these projections and it shown that budgetary stric tures of this form have been effective in reducing the optimism bias which emerges when government fragmentation increases. The second chapter investigates the relative importance of systematic risk and conventional fiscal indicators in characterising the default risks of EMU member states and as potential explanations of pricing disparities which exist between public debt securities issued by these countries. Using both a portfolio approach and Fama and Macbeth cross-sectional regressions it is demonstrated that measures of systematic default risk (approximated by an issuer's default beta) and fiscal indicators overlap in the manner of risks which they represent. It is also shown that the common variation which exists between these alternate measures is relevant in explaining difference in the excess returns on EMU public debt securities in sample periods which both include and exclude the recent sovereign debt crisis. The third and final chapter uses a panel data model to examine yield spreads on ten-year public debt securities issued by EMU sovereign nations from 2005 to 2012. Existing studies have highlighted that there are (at times) substantial discrepancies between the spreads implied this class of model and the value of spreads observed in practice, particularly since the advent of the sovereign debt crisis in late 2009. Evidence of this nature has been used to substantiate arguments that financial markets have incorrectly priced the relative risks associated with these securities given that their prices cannot be related to an assumed fundamental basis. In this chapter I present an alternative account of evolutions in EMU yield spreads during the crisis which focuses upon the scale of macroeconomic imbalances characterising certain member states and their implications for public debt sustainability. It is shown that once these factors are taken into account up to 83% of the observed variation in yield spreads can be explained over this period. These results re-establish the importance of fundamentals in understanding market based perceptions of sovereign default risk during the crisis.
32
Tischbirek, Andreas Johannes. "Essays on unconventional monetary policy and long-term government debt". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:7b01cae9-95d2-4973-805d-c79ffce22261.
Resumo:
This thesis studies the optimal conduct of unconventional monetary policy in the form of purchases of long-term government debt by the central bank and, motivated by this policy tool, the evolution of long-term government debt holdings in household portfolios over the course of the life cycle. It is comprised of three self-contained chapters. The first chapter investigates whether it can be beneficial for central banks to use the unconventional tool even when the main policy rate is not constrained by the zero lower bound. A friction in the interaction between households and banks allows central bank purchases of long-term government debt to reduce long-term interest rates and thus to stimulate economic activity. If debt purchases and conventional short-term interest rate policy are coordinated in an appropriate way, the central bank is able to reduce the volatility of output and inflation. In the second chapter, the role that unconventional monetary policy can play in a currency union is analysed. A model is laid out, in which two countries form a currency union with a common central bank but separate and uncoordinated fiscal policy institutions. When monetary policy is implemented only through the common short-term interest rate, the central bank is unable to respond effectively to country-specific shocks. Due to segmentation in the market for long-term government debt, the yield on long-term debt can differ across countries. As a result, a monetary policy authority that can rely on bond purchases is able to address idiosyncratic shocks reflected in volatility of the natural terms of trade more effectively and to achieve higher welfare than one that cannot make use of this instrument. The final chapter studies the long-term government bond share in household portfolios over the course of the life cycle. US data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggests that participation in the market for long-term government debt first increases and later decreases as agents approach the retirement age. The portfolio share conditional on participation is non-decreasing over the working life. These stylised facts can be explained by means of a portfolio choice model in which agents are subject to aggregate risk through asset returns as well as idiosyncratic risk through labour income and the stochastic events of retirement and death.
33
Lee, Tung-Hao. "Optimal public debt policy under uncertainty : a new classical approach". The Ohio State University, 1986. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1272462052.
34
Lee, Tung-hao. "Optimal public debt policy under uncertainty : a new classical approach /". The Ohio State University, 1986. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu148726702499746.
35
Yelken, Aktas Gulbahar. "Turkish Foreign Policy: New Concepts And Reflections". Master's thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612869/index.pdf.
Resumo:
Turkey has been in the process of taking its foreign policy position in the post-Cold War international schema. Through this process of adjustment, Turkish foreign policy has been developing new perspectives with new concepts. The objective of this thesis is to analyze these new concepts with its theoretical basics and reflections in policy formation. In this sensetraditional Turkish foreign policy, systemic changes behind the new foreign policy path, Strategic Depth Doctrine and new conceptual tools of Turkish foreign policy are the topics covered along the chapters. Turkish foreign policy has a new conceptual and theoretical frame, which could not be fully tested and ultimate policy results could not be observed. In this thesis, new concepts are analyzed as a contribution to Turkish Foreign Policy literature, within a descriptive methodology.
36
Yarmukhamedov, Farkhod. "Monetary versus Fiscal policy: which combination gives the highest growth performance?" Thesis, KTH, Samhällsekonomi, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-77470.
Resumo:
This paper investigates a simultaneous impact of monetary and fiscal policies on economic growth in a single model. The data for 21 OECD countries covering the period 1970-2009 is gathered for our study of policy effect on economic growth. A quadratic specification method is employed by constructing a relationship between economic growth and several policy variables in order to find optimal values for government debt level, tax revenues and interest rate that lead to the highest economic growth, which is a contribution of this paper. Furthermore, a threshold method is exploited to determine the highest growth rate at different tax and interest rates given a particular debt level. Another distinctive feature of this research is uttered in simultaneous application of both a quadratic specification method and a threshold method in the same paper which has never been done before. Having analysed methodological problems of previous studies, we employ a state-of-art advanced estimation technique which ensures a robustness of stated conclusions. According to the results, the highest economic growth performance is achieved when total tax revenue reach 23.75% of GDP and when a government debt level does not exceed 41% of GDP.
37
Haug, Alfred A. ""Ricardian equivalence or debt illusion : empirical studies"". The Ohio State University, 1987. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1267621324.
38
Jain, Sandeep. "The Effects of Austerity on the Sustainability of the Greek Public Debt". Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekonomi och organisation (Inst.), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-125595.
Resumo:
The current Greek debt crisis has forced the Greek government to adopt austerity measures. In this paper, the most favourable debt reduction strategies among all the other strategies, for both Greece and its creditors will be examined. These strategies have been recently suggested in the economic world, to help achieve deficit reduction and enhance the growth rate of Greece. This is very important for the economic world - to avoid the insolvency of Greece and to find the best debt reduction strategy which is favourable for both the parties, so that the Greek public debt-to-GDP ratio can reach a level of sustainability within a reasonable timespan. In an endeavour to answer the research question, a simulation framework has been carried out based on the economic model as given by Cline, (2011). When using this economic model, g has been made endogenous and it is dependent on the extent of austerity. This has been taken into consideration while carrying out the simulation exercises for this paper. Furthermore, three different debt reduction strategies (the lowering of interest rates, debt write-off and increasing the primary surplus) have been implemented, considering the different scenarios of the economy, when executing these simulation exercises. After carrying out the simulation framework, it has been concluded that the further reduction of the interest rate would be the most favorable debt reduction strategy for both Greece and its creditors. This interest rate strategy would not only lower the Greek public debt-to-GDP to a sustainable level within a reasonable time period, but will also keep the growth rate positive in the long run during this period of weak economic recovery.
39
Sålder, Christofer. "In search of a smoking gun : The repo rate’s effect on household debt-to-income ratio". Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-217562.
Resumo:
The Swedish households’ debt relative to income has increased for some time now, with the Riksbanks’ executive board expressing its concern for the risk it brings. It has been debated whether or not to take the high indebtedness into account when setting the policy rate. There is at the same time no consensus about the relationship between the repo rate and household debt. This study aims to examine the effect of a change in the repo rate on household debt-to-income ratio, using a VAR-model. The result is that a 1 percentage point shock to the repo rate for one quarter will have a negative impact on the household debt-to-income ratio by 1.75 percentage points after about 8 quarters. However this may not decrease the risk associated with the debt due to higher unemployment.
40
Hennerdal, Ida. "Mellan det globala och det lokala : Örebro kommuns klimatstrategi ur ett policymobilitetsperspektiv". Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Kulturgeografiska institutionen, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-143797.
Resumo:
Local authorities increased interest in climate mitigation policy has in recent years attracted interest from researchers. Compared to local authorities in most other countries, Swedish municipalities enjoy a larger portion of autonomy. This makes them particularly interesting to study from a policy mobility perspective. The aim of this study is to explore how local authorities develop climate policy, the case chosen for this inquiry is Örebro municipality and its climate strategy approved in 2016. By applying the theoretical framework of policy transfer, to some extent, but especially policy mobility the thesis discovers how local authorities develop their climate policy. It also uncovers from where they gather knowledge and inspiration, faced with the global scope of climate issues. The result show that policy mobility provides great explanatory value in understanding the assemblage that is Örebro municipality’s climate strategy. The result, however, also challenges the notion forwarded within the field of policy mobility that the national scale is not very important for local policy development. The study also show that some policy areas are more easily influenced by the global scale, while other areas are more depended on similarities in context between the ‘sending’ and the ‘receiving’ actor, that is Örebro municipality.Lokala myndigheter har tagit allt större plats i klimatpolitken och även tilldragit sig allt mer uppmärksamhet från forskare. Tidigare har bekämpning av klimatförändringar endast funnits på den globala och nationella nivåns agendor. När fler aktörer kliver in öppnas nya områden upp för studier av olika slag. Inom policymobilitetsfältet har forskare intresserat sig för hur lokala myndigheter formar sin politik, hur policyer färdas från en kontext till en annan och vad den processen gör med policyerna. Jämfört med motsvarande myndighetsnivå i de flesta andra länder har svenska kommuner ett betydligt större mått av självbestämmande. Denna långtgående rådighet gör dem särskilt intress- anta att studera ur ett policymobilitetsperspektiv. Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka hur lokala myndigheter utformar sin klimatpolitik, som fall används Örebro kommuns klimatarbete och då särskilt den klimatstrategi som kommunfullmäktige antog 2016. Genom användningen av teoribildningen kring dels policytransferering men främst policymobilitet studerar uppsatsen hur dessa lokala myndigheter agerar och var de hämtar kunskap och inspiration ifrån när de ställs inför den globalt omfattande frågan om klimat- förändringar. Policymobilitetslitteraturen visar sig bidra med viktiga förklaringsvärden för att förstå den assemblage som Örebro kommuns klimatstrategi utgör. I resultatet fram- går dock att den nationella skalnivån inte förlorat sin betydelse för lokala myndigheters policyutveckling till den grad som tidigare studier inom policymobilitetslitteraturen pekat ut. Den visar också på att policyer inom vissa områden lättare hämtas hem från en global kontext medan det i andra sammanhang ligger närmare till hands att inspireras av andra lokala myndigheter i samma situation och med en liknande kontext som den egna.
41
Ahmed, Haydory Akbar. "Essays on fiscal deficit, debt and monetary policy: a nonlinear approach". Diss., Kansas State University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/35789.
Resumo:
Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of Economics
Steven P. Cassou
This essay empirically investigates the dynamics between government debt and budget deficits in the United States during a recession as opposed to an expansion. We use four different budget deficits definitions to develop a more comprehensive insight. We estimate a threshold VAR model on quarterly data from 1947: Q1 to 2016: Q3 on debt to GDP and budget deficits to GDP ratio for the United States. Specification test using LR test rejects the null for a linear VAR against nonlinear VAR. The nonlinear impulse responses indicate, with an increase to budget deficits to GDP ratio, government debt to GDP ratio rise faster during a recession as opposed to an expansion, and tend to move in a counter-cyclical manner with an increase in the output gap. We can thus infer that governments chose economic stability over fiscal balance during recessions. With an increase in government debt to GDP ratio, nonlinear impulse response show budget deficits to GDP ratio grow faster during an expansion as opposed to a recession and exhibit counter-cyclicality with an increase in the output gap. All four budget defi cits definitions depict similar pattern. Robustness check, using cyclically adjusted primary budget deficit published by the congressional Budget Office, also con rm the above findings. In this essay, we explore the presence of a long run relationship between the monetary base and the government debt using monthly data from 1942:1 to 2015:12. We apply formal statistical methods including cointegration and threshold cointegration tests to investigate the presence of a long-run relationship and estimate a threshold vector error-correction model (TVECM henceforth) to analyze the short-run dynamics. We find the presence of a threshold cointegration between the monetary base and government debt. As for the short-run dynamics, TVECM estimates show that the speed of adjustment is significant for the growth in debt equation in both regimes with the signs indicating government adjusting the debt in the short-run. But the U.S. Fed does not change the monetary base, hence we do not find any evidence of debt monetization in the U.S. We evaluate our findings over two sub-samples: 1946 to 2015 and 1946 to 2007 for robustness purposes. Findings from both sub-samples conform to our findings from the full sample. In this essay, we investigate the impacts of growth in the budget deficit and money supply on real interest rate are integral to contemporary macroeconomic policy. We employ threshold VAR and nonlinear impulse responses using quarterly data from 1959 to 2015. We find that growth in money supply and budget deficits have an asymmetric impact on inflation, short-term interest rate, and real interest rates. Growth in money supply and budget deficit tend to make the real interest rate negative in a bad state. In a good state, on the other hand, growth in money supply tend to increase the real interest rate but growth in budget deficits tend to decrease the real interest rate over the forecast horizon.
42
Greer, Robert. "THREE ESSAYS ON LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT". UKnowledge, 2013. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/msppa_etds/6.
Resumo:
The local government tax-exempt debt market is a growing, and complex, sector of public finance. As local governments turn to debt financing the factors that contribute to interest costs of that debt have become important considerations for local government officials and politicians. Governance at the local level involves a network of overlapping governments some of which share a tax base. This system of overlapping governments that share a tax base are subject to externalities that arise from taxation, expenditures, and debt. These externalities are usually analyzed in terms of tax or expenditure reactions, but there are implications for local government debt as well. For example, it can be shown that overlapping governments that share a tax base and issue debt can increase the interest costs paid on bonds by a higher level government. Further complicating the debt situation of local governments is the prevalence of a variety of special districts with the authority to issue tax-exempt debt. These special districts may have the authority to issue debt, but little is known about their financing processes. By comparing how different types of government approach the credit rating process this dissertation compares risk assessment of traditional municipalities and special districts. Through this comparison similarities and differences in the credit rating process across types of local governments can be identified. To explore these issues of local government debt several advanced econometric techniques are used to estimate various models.
43
Geiselhart, Karin, e n/a. "Does democracy scale?: a fractal model for the role of interactive technologies in democratic policy processes". University of Canberra. Information Management and Tourism, 1999. http://erl.canberra.edu.au./public/adt-AUC20050628.122941.
Resumo:
The development of interactive communication technologies, such as email and the Internet,
has stimulated much discussion about their potential to assist in the renewal of democracy.
Globalisation, intimately connected with technological advance, has likewise led to
considerations of 'governance' that transcend the nation state. This thesis poses the general
question: Can the efficiencies and economies which drive commercial applications of
interactive technology be applied to democratic policy processes? What conditions will
facilitate this?
The perspective taken here views policy as a communication process between networks of
actors who seek to use resources and decisions to promote their value systems (Considine
1994). Democracy is also seen as a communication process, with a set of criteria which
ensure equal access to information and agenda setting among participants (Dahl 1989).
These definitions and criteria have been chosen for their generality. They apply at all levels
of analysis, and thus may be used for comparison across scales. These are aligned with
concepts from complexity theory as applied to human nonlinear systems and organisational
dynamics, drawing mostly on Kiel(1994) and Stacey (1996). The inherent unpredictability
of these systems and their capacity for complex learning and adaptive self-organisation
offers an alternative paradigm to linear, hierarchical management models.
A combination of literature analysis and case study evidence leads to three extensions of
complexity theory as applied to human systems: Firstly, interactive technology is proposed
as a technique for the potential re-pluralisation of democratic processes in complex human
systems. The possibility of adding many new non-elite voices, and of making these available
to all others, relates to both chaotic forms of self-organisation and the benefits of electronic
democracy. Secondly, evidence is presented for the existence of fractal, or self-similar
patterns in the ways information technology is applied at different levels of governance. It is
shown that instrumental approaches which emphasise efficiency dominate technology use at
the global, national and organisational levels, and these are interdependent. Alternative
patterns which encourage participation also exist at every level. Thirdly, it is argued that the
values of the dominant actors are the main determinants of whether interactive technologies
will be structured to favour democratic forms of communication at every level.
Three theory chapters in Part I develop these arguments by extensive reviews of relevant
literatures. On the global level, convergent media, telecommunications and technology
conglomerates underpin a global 'nervous system' which discourages government
intervention, promotes a global monoculture, inhibits pluralistic debate by minimising access
to alternative forms of information, and emphasises individualism and consumption. Within
nations, widespread uniformity of public sector reform is sympathetic and responsive to
these globalising pressures. Deregulation, privatisation, retreat from public broadcasting,
down-sizing and outsourcing have become standard approaches, and are reflected in
Australian information technology policy and programs. Several exceptions demonstrate
more participatory approaches. At the organisational level, instrumental approaches to
management and computerisation also prevail. In each case, a shift towards globalising
values corresponds to applications of information technology which dampen the complex
interactivity required for democratic policy processes.
Part II supplements this analysis with case study evidence. The organisational data were
collected primarily during a two year qualitative study of interactive technology use in the
Australian Department of Finance and Administration. The researcher found technology use
was inseparable from other change processes, and these were found to have strong elements
inhibiting participation in internal policy. An instrumental approach to interactive technology
use reinforced hierarchical decision processes.
Three minor case studies looked at an internal mailing list in a federal agency, a mostly
national list on Internet and telecommunications policy, and an experiment in electronic
democracy at the local level. These offered additional insights into the ways interactive
technologies can contribute to complex but adaptive policy processes, if normative
democratic values guide their design.
The researcher proposes a set of communication protocols for the use of interactive
technologies in democratic policy processes. These would enable the forms of
communication necessary to reinvigorate democracy in an information age. It is also argued
that these protocols, if applied at the organisational level, and particularly within the public
sector, could become part of a reaffirmation of industrial democracy. This is necessary to
ensure the integrity and accountability of the public sector, given the progressive
intermingling of these institutions with private enterprise. Additional suggestions are made
for research into government uses of information technology as an important focus for policy
analysts.
44
Pettersson, Sandra, e Elin Zakó. "Trygghet i staden : Finns det samband mellan människors upplevda trygghet och polispatrullering?" Thesis, Örebro universitet, Institutionen för juridik, psykologi och socialt arbete, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-27652.
Resumo:
Kan polisnärvaro skapa trygghetskänslor hos människor? Studien har undersökt förhållandet mellan människors upplevda trygghet och tre olika typer av polispatrullering i en relativt trygg och relativt otrygg stadsmiljö. För att besvara frågeställningarna genomfördes en enkätundersökning där respondenterna, 112 män och 131 kvinnor (M=30 år, SD=12.98), fick skatta sin upplevda trygghet utifrån bilder med de tre olika typerna av polispatrullering. Resultatet indikerade att alla typer av polisnärvaro ingett trygghet i den relativt otrygga stadsmiljön. Polispatrullering till fots frambringade mer trygghetskänslor än polisbilspatrullering. Resultaten var giltiga för både män och kvinnor. Slutsatsen är att polisnärvaro kan inge trygghet i relativt otrygga stadsmiljöer men i relativt trygga stadmiljöer är inte någon av de tre undersökta typerna av polispatrullering effektiva.Can police presence make people feel safe? This study explored the relationship between people’s experience of feeling safe and three different kinds of police patrolling in a relatively safe and a relatively unsafe urban area. A survey was distributed, 112 men and 131 women (M=30 years, SD=12.98), to estimate the perception of feeling safe by looking at photos with three different kinds of police patrolling. The result indicated that all kinds of police patrolling had positive effect on the respondent’s feelings of safety in the relatively unsafe urban area. Police foot patrol tended to increase the respondents feelings of safety more than police patrolling by car. Similar results were found for both men and women. Police presence may increase people’s feelings of safety in relatively unsafe urban areas, but in relatively safe urban areas none of the three types of police patrol were effective.
45
Caliskan, Ahmet. "International financial crises, term structure of foreign debt and monetary policy in open economies". Diss., Texas A&M University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/3756.
Resumo:
In this dissertation, I study international financial crises. For this purpose, I build two models. In the first model, I focus on financial crises in developing, large open economies where foreign debt with various maturities and issue dates is available. The objective is to measure the vulnerability of the domestic financial system to domestically triggered bank runs and externally triggered sudden stops. The main contribution of this model is that both types of crises are treated as rational responses of domestic depositors and international creditors. Such vulnerability measures are linked to fundamentals and equilibrium term structure of foreign debt. Banks vulnerability to runs increases if they hold a relatively shorter term debt. Also, a larger cost of liquidating the long-term investment before maturity makes the banks more fragile. In the next step, given a domestic banking crisis, I allow international creditors to decide whether they want to stop lending to domestic banks (in which case a Âsudden stop takes place) or not. A sudden stop is more likely if (i) creditors highly discount future consumption, (ii) creditors current income is small relative to their future income, and (iii) the cost of liquidating the long-term investment before maturity is small. In the second model, I investigate the merits of alternative monetary policies with respect to financial fragility. In this monetary model of an explicit financial system, I motivate the demand for two fiat currencies by spatial separation and limited communication of agents. There is a domestic and a foreign currency freely traded without restrictions. I analyze the policy of a constant growth rate of domestic money supply with a floating exchange rate regime. Both currencies are held in positive amounts at the steady-state only if the growth rate of domestic money supply is equal to the world inflation rate (WIR). If the former rate is larger than the WIR, domestic currency is not held at the steady-state. Also, total real money balances held is negatively related with WIR. Finally, monetary policy in the form of a constant growth rate of domestic money supply is neutral with respect to welfare.
46
Demmel, Roland. "Fiscal policy, public debt and the term structure of interest rates /". Berlin : Springer, 1999. http://opac.nebis.ch/cgi-bin/showAbstract.pl?u20=354066243X.
47
Rieth, Malte Hendrik [Verfasser]. "Essays on Dynamic Macroeconomics : debt, taxation, and policy / Malte Hendrik Rieth". Dortmund : Universitätsbibliothek Technische Universität Dortmund, 2011. http://d-nb.info/1011568462/34.
48
FREITAS, VICTOR ALMEIDA SANTOS DE. "FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE AND PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN BRAZIL, 1994-2008". PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2010. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=16708@1.
Resumo:
O período de 1994 a 2008 caracteriza um momento da história fiscal
brasileira importante. Durante esse período observou-se uma retomada do controle
sobre o endividamento público, por meio de aumento expressivo do superávit
primário. Nesta dissertação essa correção é analisada, qualitativamente e
quantitativamente, mostrando que a condução austera da política fiscal foi capaz
de estabilizar a trajetória do endividamento. Salienta-se a importância de uma
posição primária que dependa dos movimentos da dívida, garantindo seu controle
em um patamar estável. Foram feitos testes tradicionais da literatura, em que se
avaliam diretamente os movimentos conjuntos das variáveis, e, adicionalmente,
testa-se o poder preditivo do endividamento sobre o superávit primário. Apesar de
encontrar evidências de que a correção na posição primária foi suficiente para
induzir o controle do movimento da dívida, a análise qualitativa aponta para uma
fonte de instabilidade, o crescimento constante das despesas primárias.The years between 1994 and 2008 were a very important period in Brazil s fiscal history. The government regained control over its public deficit during those 14 years by increasing its primary surplus to as much as 3% of gross domestic product. This dissertation analyses these changes through qualitative and quantitative methods, exposing the strict fiscal policies that led to control of public debt. It also places emphasis on the significance of an active fiscal policy on public debt levels and the size of the primary surplus. Traditional tests were utilized to evaluate fiscal policy sustainability and, in addition, tests how the primary surplus is impacted, and predicated, by public debt levels. While there is enough evidence showing how primary balance adjustments were sufficient for stabilizing the debt in question, qualitative analysis points out a new source of instability: the continuous growth of primary expenses.
49
Ilori, Ayobami E. "Fiscal policy, debt consolidation and the consequences of the Great Recession". Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2018. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/22616/.
Resumo:
This thesis examines the domestic and international transmission of fiscal shocks, especially in the wake of the European sovereign debt crisis after the Great Recession. The thesis is divided into three main chapters, with each chapter addressing contemporary policy questions in recent macroeconomic debates. The first chapter investigates the effect of fiscal consolidation on different types of household, and how the degree of household's financial constraints interacts with the government's debt-consolidation plan in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated on UK data. In the second chapter, the analysis is extended to a two-country model in order to investigate the international transmission of fiscal shocks between the UK and the Euro area, and how the relative participation of these countries at the global asset market influence cross-border fiscal spillovers. Motivated by the recent calls on the German government to increase its spending, the third chapter estimates the international spillover effects of an expansion in German government spending on output and bilateral exchange rates of 15 European (10 Euro and 5 non-Euro) economies within a sign-restricted structural VAR model. Evidence from the closed-economy model shows that different types of households respond differently to fiscal consolidation shocks, depending on the degree of financial constraints they face. Tighter household's credit constraints dampen the responsiveness of fiscal instruments to government debt, thereby prolonging the actualisation of the consolidation plan. On the international transmission of fiscal shock, the results show that EA fiscal shocks have sizeable effects on the UK economy, while UK fiscal shocks have negligible effects on the EA economy. Also, relative countries' participation at the international asset market drives the amplification and propagation of cross-border fiscal spillovers. Furthermore, German government spending shock has moderate but short-lived effects on the output of other European countries, with homogeneous responses in the Euro countries, but heterogeneous responses in non-Euro countries.
50
Biggs, Michael Llewellyn. "Does South Africa's government debt threaten the sustainability of fiscal policy?" Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/10114.
Resumo:
Bibliography: leaves 77-80.The South African government debt has risen alarmingly over the last decade, with the debt-to-GDP ratio increasing from 33% in 1985 to 57% in 1995. These debt movements, combined with historically high conventional deficits equal to 9.0% and 9.8% of GDP in 1993 and 1994 respectively, have cast doubt on the solvency of government. This paper considers the issue of government solvency by focusing on two questions. Firstly, "Are present fiscal policies sustainable?", and secondly, "What are the limits to future fiscal policy if government solvency is to be maintained?"