Literatura científica selecionada sobre o tema "Perception de parole"

Parole members are tasked with deciding which incarcerated person is granted parole; however, factors such as the incarcerated person’s gender identity in combination with the crime committed could negatively affect this decision. This study investigated the effects of the incarcerated person’s gender identity (male, female, nonbinary) and crime committed (sexual assault, theft/larceny) on mock parole members’ decisions and perceptions of the incarcerated person. MTurk participants (N = 467) acted as mock parole board members. Participants read vignettes describing an incarcerated person eligible for parole, and participants rated their likelihood to release the incarcerated person and perception of the incarcerated person. We found that the incarcerated person’s gender identity affected participants’ parole decisions and perceptions of the incarcerated person, such that, in general, male incarcerated people were perceived more negatively than nonbinary and female incarcerated people, and female incarcerated people were perceived the most positively. Crime severity also affected parole decisions, such that incarcerated people who commit a crime of sexual assault were less likely to receive parole and were perceived the most negatively compared to incarcerated people who commit a crime of theft/larceny. There was no interaction between the incarcerated person’s gender identity and crime severity. This study can provide insight on perceptions of nonbinary incarcerated people, and how these perceptions compare to binary incarcerated people.

This article examines the decision-making of the parole system in Tanzania, and how such decisions grant some prisoners’ parole but deny others. The study was conducted from June to August 2018. It used to examine the criteria used to deny parole to 691 out of 5773 prisoners who were considered for parole between August 1999 and March 2018.The study was conducted at Ukonga, Keko, and Segerea Prisons, Dar es Salaam Region. The study utilized structural functionalism and focal concern theories. The study employed a qualitative research approach and exploratory research design. The research participants included regional and national parole boards, secretariats to the parole boards, officers’ in-charge of prisons, parole officers, and the prisoners who had been denied parole while still in prisons. The findings suggest that parole boards and decision makers used criteria other than those in legal instruments to deny parole to prisoners. The criteria included change of offenses contrary to court sentences, subjective perception, and negative attitude on some offenses as well as victims’ opinions. It is recommended that there is a need for further studies to analyze parole needs, and the law should be amended to minimize powers given to certain levels of the system in making overriding decisions on parole.

Il est bien connu que l’on observe un phénomène d’interférence aussi bien lors du contact entre langues au sein d’une société que lors de contacts entre langues «à l’intérieur» de l’individu. Dans le dernier cas de figure, il est plus sensé de considérer le processus même de la perception de la parole ou celui de la production de la parole, c’est-à-dire d’adopter une approche psycholinguistique du problème de l’interférence. C’est l’approche adoptée par les recherches phonétiques conduites au Laboratoire de phonétique expérimentale auprès de l’université de Leningrad (Bondarko, Verbickaja 1987).

L’émancipation de l’enfant dans la littérature de jeunesse donne lieu à la présence de personnages remarquables. Mais on pense souvent qu’ils sont le substitut d’une voix adulte, auctoriale ou lectoriale. Cet article examine la parole de l’enfant dans la littérature de jeunesse africaine en partant de l’idée que cette perception du discours mature de l’enfant mérite d’être nuancée, relativisée. En contextualisant cette parole, il tente de mettre en évidence les mécanismes et les facteurs qui fondent sa force et son épaisseur. L’articulation d’un tel discours participe de la complexification de la littérature pour la jeunesse longtemps confinée dans sa simplicité caractéristique.

Tout acte langagier comporte une dimension Expression, caractérisée par les règles de grammaire, le choix du lexique, et une dimension Expressivité, première dans l’acte de parole, caractérisée par les aspects kinésiques et prosodiques de la parole, la signification étant portée par la résultante de ces deux dimensions. Une question clé est donc de parvenir à faire intégrer cette dimension expressivité de la L2 aux apprenants en postulant que cette intégration facilite la mémorisation de la dimension expression. Pour tenter de répondre à cette question des travaux en linguistique et psycholinguistique seront abordés. Puis notre propos se concentrera sur l’apport des neurosciences, et plus particulièrement sur le traitement cérébral de la perception de la parole et les processus mnésiques qui en dépendent. Dans un troisième temps, les résultats d’une étude comportementale menée auprès d’étudiants francophones apprenant en anglais, permettant d’évaluer l’impact d’une intégration sensorielle spécifique de la prosodie seront discutés.

Korea's criminal law stipulates the death penalty as a punishment. It also provides for the death penalty for heinous crimes such as murder. As of October 2023, 59 death row inmates are incarcerated in correctional institutions. Looking at court rulings over the past 10 years, no matter how serious the crime was, there was no case in which the death penalty was ultimately confirmed. However, there is a strong perception that life imprisonment, which is the second most severe punishment after the death penalty under the current law, is insufficient to replace the death penalty. Above all, the so-called ‘Sindang Station revenge murder’ incident raised the realistic issue that the parole period may be shorter than the prison sentence. Considering these problems, the Ministry of Justice is announcing the introduction of ‘absolute life imprisonment’, that is, life imprisonment without parole. In response to this, the Supreme Court (National Court Administration) expressed the opinion that judgment should be made cautiously, which is in fact the opposite position. In this paper, we looked at the concept and status of absolute life sentences, their effects, causes of increase, and further problems, focusing on the case of the United States, which implements absolute life sentences, and then considered the possibility of introducing them in Korea.

La recherche rapportée dans cette thèse examine les implications d'une approche par systèmes dynamiques non-linéaires à l'étude de la perception de la parole. Nous avons commencé par répliquer, avec des stimuli et des participants français, les prédictions du modèle monodimensionnel de l'identification et de l'évaluation des percepts linguistiques introduit par Tuller et ses Collègues (1994). Il a été possible d'observer deux phénomènes typiques de ce type de systèmes : lorsque le système s'approche d'un point d'instabilité, les temps de réaction augmentent ("ralentissement critique") et les réponses des participants sont de plus en plus exposées aux fluctuations aléatoires ("fluctuations critiques"). Nous avons ensuite observé comment les issues de l'apprentissage perceptif dépendent de l'ordre de présentation initiale des stimuli. Ces résultats ont été reproduits avec un modèle multidimensionnel qui se fonde sur les équations proposées par Steven Grossberg (19978, 2003). Dans la troisième expérience nous avons introduit un protocole expérimental ayant le but de déterminer la nature phonétique ou auditive des compétences acquises pendant l'exposition à la tâche d'identification.

La Langue française Parlée Complétée (LPC) a été élaborée à partir de son Cued Speech par Cornett (1967), pour pouvoir désambiguïser la phonologie visible sur le visage par des gestes phonémiques manuels simultanés. Mais c'est seulement depuis cinq ans que le secret de sa production est connu, lorsqu'il a été découvert que la main était toujours en avance sur le visage (Attina & al. , 2004). Ce comportement anticipatoire nous renvoie à celui de la parole. Sur ce comportement général, la question clé que nous allons poser ici est celle de la perception des flux acoustiques et optiques dans la parole et dans la parole coordonnée avec le code manuel de Cornett pour le LPC. Nous déterminerons en premier lieu que la parole bimodale est flexible même dans les structures CVCV les plus simples, non seulement entre locuteurs mais chez un même sujet. Si la parole peut être vue avant même d'être entendue (comme l'ont établi de manière exemplaire Cathiard & al. , 1991), l'inverse est aussi vrai, et chez le même locuteur. En fait nous montrerons que la parole peut aussi être entendue avant d'être vue et même que la parole peut être entendue aussitôt qu'elle est vue. En examinant soigneusement la structure des stimuli testés, nous avons pu montrer que les patrons perceptifs résultants sont "rivés" (locked) à la production oro-faciale de la parole. Ce qui se démontre en tenant compte des relations articulatori-acoustiques. Nos expériences de gating et de désynchronisation, menées avec des entendants et des sourds, adultes et enfants – et aussi des sujets aveugles "contrôles" pour l'audio – nous ont permis de tester la gamme de flexibilité que peut permettre cette coordination phonémique unique de la face et de la main. Ces résultats viennent renforcer la conception avancée depuis Attina & al. (2004), comme quoi le comportement anticipatoire dans la Langue française Parlée Complétée repose sur la mise en phase des types de contrôles les plus compatibles, ceux des (con)tacts de la main avec le visage pour les voyelles et ceux des constrictions de la bouche pour les consonnes. La fenêtre qui nous a été ainsi ouverte par le code de Cornett (Cornett's code) – surtout par la tournure qui lui a permis d'être neuralement incorporé (embodied & "embrained") dans une habileté linguistique – nous a ainsi de manière surprenante permis d'apporter des réponses plus décisives sur la nature des contrôles des segments dans la phonologie du langage que par la seule observation des actes de parole
Cued Speech was created by Cornett in 1967 in order to disambiguate the phonology of the visible face by simultaneous phonemic hand gestures. But its productive secret was disclosed just five years ago when discovering that the hand was always ahead of the face (Attina & al. , 2004). This anticipatory coordination was a reminder of the current anticipatory behaviour in speech. The core question here addressed to this anticipatory issue concerned the perception of the acoustic and optic flows in Speech and Cued Speech. We will first establish the flexibility of bimodal speech even in simple CVCV structures, both between and within speakers. If speech can be seen before it is heard (as evidenced at its best by Cathiard & al. , 1991), we will show that the reverse is also true, even for the same speaker. Namely we will assess that speech can be heard before it is seen and even that speech can be heard as soon as it is seen. By carefully examining the pattern of behaviour of the perceived stimuli, we will show that the perceptive outcomes are locked to the produced oro-facial structures, provided we take into account their articulatory to acoustic relationships. Gating and desynchronization experiments for speech et Cued Speech, run with hearing and deaf adults and children – with blind "control" subjects for the audio –, will give us the opportunity to test the range of flexibility allowed by this unique hand-face phonemic coordination. These results will reinforce the proposal that the anticipatory Cued Speech behaviour relies on the phasing of compatible contact controls for hand vowels with orofacial consonants. The window offered by Cornett’s code – and the way it was skillfully embodied (say "embrained") – brought us a surprisingly more decisive answer about the nature of the controls in the phonology of language than the mere observation of simple speech behaviour

L'objectif de cette etude est d'evaluer la technique de detection de clics pour l'etude en temps reel des processus de comprehension de la parole. Cette technique consiste a mesurer les temps de reaction a des clics sonores presentes simultanement a des phrases ou des mots experimentaux, a des instants precisement determines. Cette methode est applique e a differents facteurs lexicaux, syntaxiques et semantiques qui contribuent a la comprehension des phrases. Nous suggerons que cette methode n'est pas sensible aux processus rapides et automatiques responsables de l'acces lexical et de l'analyse syntaxique. Par contre, les temps de reaction sont ralentis lors de la mise en jeu de strategies de verification, rendues necessaires en cas d'echec des modules linguistiques automatiques
The aim of this study is to evaluate the potential interest of the click monitoring technique for the on-line study of speech comprehension. While subjects listened to experimental sentences (or words), the reaction times to short superimposed clicks were measured. We studied the influence on reaction times of various lexical, syntactic, and semantic factors that contribute to sentence comprehension. We suggest that latencies are not sensitive to the most rapid and automatic processes of lexical access and syntactic parsing. However, longer latencies are observed whenever automatic modules fail to produce a definite output, requiring that controlled verification strategies come into play

Les émissions de parole nous paraissent comme un espace de cristallisation des conflits linguistiques et identitaires que connaît la société algérienne, un lieu tout autant d'aboutissement que d'amplification des dysfonctionnements de la communication télévisuelle et publique en Algérie. Cette étude consiste à tenter de comprendre les contextes et les modalités d’articulation des déterminations psychosociales à partir de situations d'échanges et de transmission qui laissent deviner une sorte de “malaise” communicationnel à la télévision. À travers la parole, comme marqueur psycho-identitaire, nous avons cherché à identifier les symptômes de la “dyscommunication”. Les manifestations de cette dernière se révèlent comme la conséquence d'un raté politico-idéologique et l'indicateur d'un clivage identitaire des sujets parlants. La problématique que nous soulevons relève principalement du phénomène d'inadaptation de la langue utilisée à la télévision et qui semble influer sur le comportement expressif (langagier et paralangagier), et affaiblit les potentiels émotionnels et phatiques des locuteurs à la télévision. Nos observations et notre enquête montrent que les récepteurs sont sensibles aux messages émotionnels et aux implicites culturels véhiculés par les emblèmes mimogestuels, le langage paraverbal, la prononciation, et que ceux-ci sont des facteurs déterminants dans la qualité d'une interaction communicative, à la télévision comme dans la vie quotidienne. La langue, seule, ne suffit pas à transmettre la totalité du message. Le téléspectateur est très attentif aux “énoncés coopératifs” et de reconnaissance mutuelle, ainsi qu'aux compétences socioculturelles et émotionnelles qui accompagnent et émergent naturellement d'une parole endogène
TV programs based on words/debate/discussion appear to us as a space of crystallization of the linguistic and identity conflicts which the Algerian society knows. They show and amplify the dysfunctions of television and public communication in Algeria. This study consists in trying to understand the contexts and modalities of articulation of the psychosocial and ideological determinations by exploring situations of exchange and transmission which seem to reveal a kind of communicational discomfort on television. By analysing the word as a marker of identity and psychology, we have tried to identify symptoms of "dyscommunication". The expressions of the latter appear as the consequence of a politico-ideological failure and the indicator of an identity cleavage between the speaking subjects/enunciators. The problem which we raise has to do wit the phenomenon of maladjustment of the language used on television, which seems to influence the (both linguistic and paralinguistic) capacity of expression and to weaken the emotional and phatic potential of the speakers on television. Our observations and our investigation show that the receivers/viewers are sensitive to the emotional messages and to implicit cultural signs conveyed by mimogestual emblems, paraverbal language, pronunciation, and that these are determining factors in the quality of a communicative interaction, on television as in everyday life. Language alone is not enough to convey the totality of the message. The televiewer is very attentive to the "cooperative statements" and to processes of mutual recognition, as well as to the sociocultural and emotional skills which accompany and naturally emerge from endogenous speech

Cette recherche concerne les relations, objectives ou subjectives, pouvant exister entre une même production langagière, exprimée d'une part sous forme orale et d'autre part sous forme écrite. Ceci peut se concevoir selon deux perspectives différentes, qui sont l'une et l'autre prises en compte : soit en termes de correspondances "objectives", ou de production ; soit en termes de correspondances "subjectives", liées aux inférences suscitées chez des tiers par la perception de telles productions. L'hypothèse générale avancée est la suivante :« Lorsqu'on demande à des sujets d'apparier des productions orales et écrites d'une population de locuteurs/scripteurs, les appariements effectués ne se font pas au hasard ». La dualité production/perception se retrouve au coeur du paradigme expérimental retenu, qui repose d'une part sur des expérimentations d'appariement par des sujets entre des voix et des écritures, et d'autre part sur la qualification de ces écritures et de ces voix par d'autres sujets. Principales conclusions : Les sujets ne sont pas en mesure de percevoir de correspondance « objective » entre des productions orales et des productions écrites émanant d'un même individu. Ils perçoivent par contre des correspondances « subjectives », sur des bases assez largement partagées dans la population testée. Selon que les attentes suscitées par les paroles et celles suscitées par les écritures coïncident à peu près ou non, les sujets infèrent qu'il s'agit ou non, dans notre cadre expérimental de « choix forcé », de la même personne ; ou, à tout le moins, de façon plus générale', que telle parole « va bien » ou non avec telle écriture. Il semble bien que les critères retenus, de façon apparemment inconsciente, par les sujets pour en décider correspondent à des associations de caractéristiques entre les voix et les écritures assez spécifiques
This research concerns the subjective and objective relationships which could exist between an oral and written productions of the saine language extract. This can be viewed from two diffèrent aspects, both of which are taken into account here. They can either be seen in terms of "objective "relationships linked to the process of production, or in ternis of "sujective" relationships linked to inférences made by third parties in their perception of these productions. The general hypothesis that is being put forward is the following : "When subjects are asked to match oral and written productions from a population of speakers/writers the resulting matches are not random. ". The duality of production and perception lies at the heart of the experimental paradigm which consists of a series of matching experiments between voices and writings carried out by the subjects accompanied by an evaluation of these voices and writings by an other group of subjects. Main conclusions : - The subjects were not capable of perceiving an objective relationship between oral and written productions coming from the saine individual. There was a broad consensus,however, amongst the tested population in subjective links. Depending on whether the responses evoked by the voices and the writings more or less coincided or not the subjects inferred wether or not it concerned the saine person ; or, at least, they had a general feeling that a certain voice "went well" or not with a certain handwriting. It would seem that the criteria applied in an apparently unconscious way by the subjects to make their decisions correspond to quite specific associations of characteristics between voices and writings

Dans cette thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés à la production et à la perception de la voix. Nous avons utilisé des voix masculines. Les principaux résultats sont : - Il existe des consensus sur le jugement hédoniste de la voix et sur les inférences concernant le locuteur. Les consensus apparaissent quelle que soit la nature linguistique de la production vocale entendue, même à l'écoute d'une simple série de voyelles. - Les auditeurs sont capables d'inférer correctement l'âge des locuteurs mais non la taille car ceux-ci utilisent à tort des indices acoustiques non fiables tel F0. - Il n'y a pas d'effet du genre de l'auditeur sur les jugements : les auditeurs et les auditrices produisent les mêmes jugements. - Il y a un effet du corpus vocal sur les jugements produits à l'écoute des voix, cet effet oppose principalement les voyelles aux autres corpus. - Il apparaît, de manière générale, que les auditeurs/trices utilisent surtout les informations prosodiques de la voix et non les aspects spectraux tels F0 moyen et le timbre de la voix
The present thesis focuses on voice production and perception. We used male voices. Theses are the main results: - Consensus on the voice hedonistic judgment and on the inferences regarding the speaker can be noted. Theses appear whatever the linguistic nature of the vocal production listened, even while listening to a simple series of vowels. - The listeners prove themselves able to infer correctly the speakers' age but not height, as they mistakenly use non-reliable acoustic indications such as pitch. - There is no gender effect on the judgments : both male and female listeners seem to produce the same judgments. - A vocal corpus effect on the judgments produced while listening to voices can be observed, principally opposing the vowels to the other corpora. -It generally turns out that male and female speakers use mainly voice prosodic information and not the spectral aspects such as pitch and the voice tone

Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse décrivent les différentes phases de traitement au cours desquelles les informations visuelle et auditive de parole convergent dans le cerveau, puis sont intégrées en une représentation de parole cohérente. Les premières étapes indiquent que l’information visuelle permet d’anticiper l’information auditive entrante en fonction de la quantité d’information visuelle, et ce indépendamment de son contenu représentationnel. Plus tardivement au cours de l’intégration, le cerveau détecte d’éventuelles incohérences entre informations visuelles et auditives et met en œuvre des processus permettant de prendre en compte ces incohérences, potentiellement dans le but d’apprendre les stimuli inconnus. Ces résultats indiquent que les informations visuelles transitent vers le cortex auditif via des voies anatomo-fonctionnelles différentes selon le stade intégratif. D’autre part, les dynamiques oscillatoires et réseaux cérébraux impliqués varient selon que l’information auditive entrante valide ou non la prédiction émise sur la base de l’information visuelle. La perception d’un stimulus correctement prédit induit la stabilisation des représentations de parole à un rythme lent (delta, 3 Hz) au sein d’un réseau étendu de régions lexico-sémantiques. A l’inverse, la détection d’une erreur de prédiction induit un changement de régime des oscillations corticales à un rythme plus élevé, entrainant une propagation descendante des prédictions via un canal fréquentiel beta (15 Hz) du sulcus temporal supérieur vers les aires sensorielles de bas niveau, puis une propagation de l’erreur de prédiction via un canal fréquentiel gamma (80 Hz) dans le sens inverse

Voir les gestes articulatoires de son interlocuteur permet d’améliorer significativement le décodage et la compréhension du signal acoustique de parole émis. Un premier objectif de cette thèse était de déterminer si les interactions multimodales lors de la perception de parole, en plus d’impliquer classiquement les informations auditives et visuelles transmises par le son et le visage du locuteur, pouvaient être déclenchées par d’autres sources sensorielles moins communément utilisées dans la communication parlée, comme la perception tactile de la parole ou encore la perception visuelle des mouvements de la langue. Parallèlement, nos travaux avaient également pour but de déterminer l’implication possible du système moteur dans ces mécanismes de perception multisensorielle. Enfin, un autre enjeu de nos recherches était de déterminer plus avant le décours temporel et l’organisation neuroanatomique fonctionnelle de ces mécanismes d’intégration à l’aide de différentes techniques comme l’électro-encéphalographie, l’imagerie par résonance magnétique fonctionnelle ou encore la stimulation magnétique transcrânienne. Nos travaux ont permis d’élargir la notion de « multisensorialité de la parole » en mettant en évidence une facilitation des traitements temporels auditifs lors de la perception audio-tactile de la parole et lors de l’observation de nos propres mouvements articulatoires. D’autre part, nos études ont fourni de nouveaux arguments en faveur d’un rôle fonctionnel du système moteur lors de la perception de parole en montrant une activation plus importante des régions motrices lors de l’observation de mouvements de la langue ainsi qu’un recrutement plus bilatéral du cortex prémoteur ventral au cours du vieillissement. Pris ensemble, nos résultats renforcent l’idée d’un couplage fonctionnel, d’une co-structuration des systèmes de perception et de production de la parole. Les études présentées dans cette thèse appuient ainsi l’existence de connexions entre régions sensorielles, intégratives et motrices permettant la mise en œuvre de processus et traitements multisensoriels, sensorimoteurs et prédictifs lors de la perception et compréhension des actions de parole
Seeing the speaker’s articulatory gestures significantly enhances auditory speech perception. A key issue is whether cross-modal speech interactions only depend on well-known auditory and visual inputs from the speaker’s voice and face or, rather, might also be triggered by other sensory sources less common in speech communication, such as tactile information or vision of the tongue movements. Another goal of the present research was to determine the possible role of the motor system in these multisensory processes. Finally, we used electro-encephalographic, functional magnetic resonance imaging and transcranial magnetic stimulation techniques in order to better understand the time course and the functional neuroanatomical organization of these integration mechanisms. Our results extent the concept of “multisensory speech perception” by highlighting a facilitation of auditory processes during audio-haptic speech perception as well as during the observation of our own articulatory movements. They also provide new evidence in favor of a functional role of the motor system in speech perception by demonstrating an increase of motor activity during visuo-lingual speech perception and a more bilateral ventral premotor cortex recruitment during speech perception across aging. Taken together, our results reinforce the idea of a functional coupling and a co-structuring of speech perception and production systems. Our work support the existence of connections between sensory, integrative and motor regions allowing the implementation of multisensory, sensorimotor and predictive processes in the perception and understanding of speech actions

Cette thèse porte sur la variation phonologique de l'assimilation de voisement en français. La première série d'expériences a eu pour objectif d'étudier la production des mots assimilés. Nous avons proposé un nouvel indice acoustique pour mesurer le degré d'assimilation entre deux mots. Les mesures acoustiques ont montré que l'assimilation est souvent un processus gradué plutôt que dichotomique et modulé par le voisement sous-jacent. Les résultats de la deuxième série d'expériences d'amorçage intermodal ont montré que le rôle du contexte droit varie en fonction du degré d'assimilation. Le traitement perceptif des mots complètement assimilés est facilité en présence du contexte droit, alors que la présences des traces acoustiques dans les mots assimilés était confirmée dans une troisième série d'expériences en amorçage sémantique
The present PhD thesis provides an in-depth study of a phonological variation frequently encountered in French, namely voice assimilation. The goal of the first series of experiments was to study the production of assimilated words and to provide an acoustico-phonetic description of word-final assimilated obstruents. Acoustic measurements showed that voice assimilation is often a graded, rather than a categorical phonetic process. Moreover, degrees of assimilation varied as a function of underlying voicing. Cross-modal priming results showed that the role of phonological right context varies as a function of the degree of assimilation. Perceptual processing of completely assimilated segments was facilitated in the presence of the right context, whereas the presence of "acoustic traces" sufficed to access partially assimilated segments. The hypothesis of the presence of acoustic traces in assimilated words was confirmed in the third series of experiments using semantic priming

AbstractThe article investigates multiform perceptions of Asia during the Cold War in the 1960s through the lenses of politics, tourism and curious travellers. The article shows how in a turn towards the criticism of mechanical modernity, the variety of images and perceptions of Asia diversified into extreme positions. Our contribution places travel writer politicians like André Malraux and literary figures like Goffredo Parise alike into a framework in which individualized notions of Asia as a plurality of geopolitical, ideological, regional and local spaces emerged. In combination with the intra-Asian reorientation of tourist images, this chapter argues for a broad spectrum of Asian travel images beyond a clear dichotomy of authentic observations versus colonial gazes under the auspices of Cold War ideology.

Ce rapport s’intéresse d’abord aux causes et défis qui permettent d’expliquer la marginalisation des acteurs locaux en faisant notamment remonter leurs perceptions. Une deuxième partie met en valeur les bonnes pratiques existantes et proposer des actions concrètes pour renforcer la place des acteurs locaux et éventuellement le leadership humanitaire local (LHL) dans la réponse au Burkina Faso. Cette étude permet la proposition de pistes pour une réponse dirigée par les acteurs humanitaires locaux et qui soit plus adaptée aux besoins, plus rapide, plus durable, plus appropriée, et qui réponde enfin au changement de réalité imposé par l’augmentation des violences, tout en maintenant les populations au centre de la réponse. This report looks at the marginalization faced by local actors in the humanitarian response in Burkina Faso. It examines the causes and challenges of their experience, in particular by foregrounding their perceptions. The report highlights existing good practice and proposes specific actions to strengthen the role of local actors and potentially local humanitarian leadership in the response. The study suggests ways of developing a response led by local humanitarian actors that better meets needs and is faster, more sustainable, more relevant and, finally, more responsive to the changing reality dictated by increased violence, while keeping people at the centre.

L’analyse de l’accident soulève de nombreux enjeux dont le poids préfigure également des biais possibles dans l’explication causale et laisse apparaître que l’explication de l’accident peut difficilement être neutre. En l’occurrence, les difficultés rencontrées dans la conduite du REX relèvent en grande partie de conflits qui surviennent lors des analyses d’accidents. Ce document présente quatre études de terrain qui visaient à comprendre l’origine des conflits entre les acteurs du REX lors des analyses d’accidents et à mieux appréhender le rôle de la perception des risques et du climat de sécurité dans la motivation des acteurs à s’impliquer davantage dans les pratiques de REX. Les études sont conduites dans l’industrie chimique et l’industrie nucléaire et portent sur plus de 1000 agents de tous niveaux hiérarchiques (cadres, agents de maîtrise, techniciens, ouvriers) et tous domaines d’activité (prévention, production, maintenance, qualité). La méthodologie repose sur des entretiens, des observations de comité REX, une expérimentation et l’administration de deux questionnaires. Il en ressort que les démarches de REX sont davantage subies qu’elles ne sont portées par les responsables du traitement des accidents en raison des coûts qu’elles engendrent en temps et en énergie, mais aussi à cause du manque d’opérationnalité des règles de traitement des accidents. Il s’avère ensuite que l’absence de dialogue autour des causes des accidents entretient des doutes sur la crédibilité du REX auprès des opérateurs. Mais avant tout, il est clairement établi que la peur d’endosser la responsabilité de l’accident détermine fortement l’explication de l’accident qui devient notamment très défensive. Par exemple, les cadres et les ouvriers se renvoient systématiquement la causalité des accidents: plus ils se sentent menacés par l’analyse d’accident, plus ils en attribuent la survenue à des facteurs internes à l’autre groupe hiérarchique. Les études révèlent également comment les croyances sur les risques conduisent les individus à être plus attentifs au REX sur les accidents directement liés au cœur de métier de leur industrie et moins attentifs au REX sur les accidents de la vie courante, pourtant plus nombreux et plus graves. Enfin, nous montrons en quoi un bon climat de sécurité peut favoriser l’implication des acteurs dans les pratiques de REX.

Unpaid Care and Domestic Work (UCDW) and Paid Domestic Work (PDW) are essential to societal wellbeing. However, these activities often carry negative perceptions, attitudes and beliefs when performed by men and boys. As a result, women and girls typically shoulder the primary responsibility for performing UCDW. Similarly, society often undervalues PDW by perceiving it as low-skilled work, as demonstrated through low remuneration and unfair employment practices. The narratives many cultures embrace concerning UCDW and PDW partly explain why these essential activities frequently fall on women and girls, and why society often undervalues PDW. This report documents a collaborative research project between Busara Center for Behavioral Economics and Oxfam to investigate existing narratives on UCDW and PDW in Kenya, and test potentially transformative narratives that could shift societal attitudes.

Parental involvement programs aim to strengthen school-home relations with the goal of improving children’s educational outcomes. We examine the effects of a parental involvement program in Mexico, which provides parent associations with grants and information. We separately estimate the effect of the grants from the effect of the information using data from two randomized controlled trials conducted by the government during the rollout of the program. Grants to parent associations did not improve educational outcomes. Information to parent associations reduced disciplinary actions in schools, mainly by increasing parental involvement in schools and changing parenting behavior at home. The divergent results from grants and information are partly explained by significant changes in perceptions of trust between parents and teachers. Our results suggest that parental involvement interventions may not achieve their intended goal if institutional rules are unclear about the expectations of parents and teachers as parents increase their involvement in schools.

Le présent rapport s’inscrit dans la continuité d’une vaste étude débutée en 2020 qui a pour objectif de mieux comprendre la préférence croissante de la population canadienne pour les véhicules énergivores ainsi que les facteurs (politiques, économiques, sociaux, etc.) qui contribuent à l’augmentation des ventes de ce type de véhicules. Le CIRANO a déjà contribué à travers plusieurs rapports publiés depuis 2020 et plus récemment par le biais d’une analyse des motivations d’achat de camions légers au Québec (Gruber, Peignier et Pentcheva, 2023). Le présent rapport complète les connaissances sur les consommateur(-trice)s en se concentrant plutôt sur l’environnement des concessionnaires automobiles et sur la manière dont il peut influencer le choix des consommateur(-trice)s. La littérature scientifique en marketing, et plus spécifiquement celle centrée sur le comportement des consommateur(-trice)s, montre que toute décision est prise dans un environnement qui exerce automatiquement une influence sur le choix d’un produit particulier. Les consommateur(-trice)s sont influencé(e)s par l’ordre dans lequel les produits sont présentés, par les images qui les accompagnent et par la manière dont les informations sur ces produits sont encadrées (Ungemach et coll., 2018). La décision d’acheter ou de ne pas acheter un véhicule donné est encore principalement prise chez les concessionnaires automobiles. Il est donc très important d’étudier la manière dont cet environnement particulier façonne les décisions des consommateur(-trice)s. À cette fin, nous avons eu recours à des observations sous la forme d’une enquête mystère, afin d’étudier l’environnement des concessionnaires automobiles (Wilson, 2011). Plus précisément, ce rapport présente l’approche méthodologique et les résultats des visites mystères effectuées chez trente concessionnaires automobiles ruraux, suburbains et urbains du Québec. Toutes les visites ont eu lieu entre septembre et décembre 2022. Les testeur(-euse)s ont été formés pour observer et noter le discours et les pratiques des vendeur(-euse)s. Les résultats montrent que les personnes chargées de la vente chez les concessionnaires automobiles ne poussent pas systématiquement la clientèle potentielle vers les gros véhicules. Elles façonnent plutôt, subtilement, sa perception en lui présentant un plus grand nombre d’arguments en faveur des gros véhicules. En outre, elles semblent moins bien connaître les arguments en défaveur des véhicules de plus grande taille. Par exemple, aucune d’entre elles n’a été capable de parler des différences d’émissions entre les différents types de véhicules sans avoir cherché au préalable cette information. De plus, les gros véhicules sont plus susceptibles d’être exposés à l’extérieur ou à l’intérieur du concessionnaire, ce qui constitue un point d’ancrage mental pour la clientèle potentielle qui entre dans un concessionnaire avec différentes options en tête. Conformément aux conclusions de Brazeau et Denoncourt (2021), ces images montrent souvent de gros véhicules dans la nature, ce qui les rend encore plus attrayants pour une hypothétique clientèle, même si celle-ci ne les utiliserait pas (ou ne pourrait pas les utiliser) dans un tel environnement. L’impact environnemental des différents types de véhicules et les implications en ce qui concerne la sécurité pour les autres usager(-ère)s de la route sont pratiquement absents du discours. Enfin, plusieurs de nos testeur(-euse)s ont noté que l’équipe des ventes est parfois incapable de justifier la raison pour laquelle la taille des véhicules continue d’augmenter sans que la clientèle en retire un avantage clair. Les résultats montrent qu’il est important de mieux former les équipes de ventes pour qu’elles puissent parler des implications en matière de sécurité et de l’impact sur l’environnement des différents véhicules.

Specific Objectives and Related Results: 1) Determine the effect of phosphorus availability on ethylene production by roots. Test the hypothesis that phosphorus availability regulates ethylene production Clear differences were found between the two plants that were studied. In beans ethylene production is affected by P nutrition, tissue type, and stage of development. There are genotypic differences in the rate of ethylene production by various root types and in the differential in ethylene production when P treatments are compared. The acceleration in ethylene production with P deficiency increases with time. These findings support the hypothesis that ethylene production may be enhanced by phosphorus deficiency, and that the degree of enhancement varies with genotype. In tomatoes the low-P level did not enhance significantly ethylene production by the roots. Wildtype cultivars and ethylene insensitive mutants behaved similarly in that respect. 2) Characterize the effects of phosphorus availability and ethylene on the architecture of whole root systems. Test the hypothesis that both ethylene and low phosphorus availability modify root architecture. In common bean, the basal roots give rise to a major fraction of the whole root system. Unlike other laterals these roots respond to gravitropic stimulation. Their growth angle determines the proportion of the root length in the shallow layers of the soil. A correlation between ethylene production and basal root angle was found in shallow rooted but not deep-rooted genotypes, indicating that acceleration of ethylene synthesis may account for the change in basal root angle in genotypes demonstrating a plastic response to P availability. Short-time gravitropic response of the tap roots of young bean seedlings was not affected by P level in the nutrient solution. Low phosphorus specifically increases root hair length and root hair density in Arabidopsis. We tested 7 different mutants in ethylene perception and response and in each case, the response to low P was lower than that of the wild-type. The extent of reduction in P response varied among the mutants, but every mutant retained some responsiveness to changes in P concentration. The increase in root hair density was due to the increase in the number of trichoblast cell files under low P and was not mediated by ethylene. Low P did not increase the number of root hairs forming from atrichoblasts. This is in contrast to ethylene treatment, which increased the number of root hairs partly by causing root hairs to form on atrichoblasts. 3) Assess the adaptive value of root architectural plasticity in response to phosphorus availability. A simulation study indicated that genetic variation for root architecture in common bean may be related to adaptation to diverse competitive environments. The fractal dimension of tomato root system was directly correlated with P level.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias