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Gandy, Niall, Lauren J. Gregoire, Jeremy C. Ely, Christopher D. Clark, David M. Hodgson, Victoria Lee, Tom Bradwell e Ruza F. Ivanovic. "Marine ice sheet instability and ice shelf buttressing of the Minch Ice Stream, northwest Scotland". Cryosphere 12, n.º 11 (23 de novembro de 2018): 3635–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3635-2018.
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Abstract. Uncertainties in future sea level projections are dominated by our limited understanding of the dynamical processes that control instabilities of marine ice sheets. The last deglaciation of the British–Irish Ice Sheet offers a valuable example to examine these processes. The Minch Ice Stream, which drained a large proportion of ice from the northwest sector of the British–Irish Ice Sheet during the last deglaciation, is constrained with abundant empirical data which can be used to inform, validate, and analyse numerical ice sheet simulations. We use BISICLES, a higher-order ice sheet model, to examine the dynamical processes that controlled the retreat of the Minch Ice Stream. We perform simplified experiments of the retreat of this ice stream under an idealised climate forcing to isolate the effect of marine ice sheet processes, simulating retreat from the continental shelf under constant “warm” surface mass balance and sub-ice-shelf melt. The model simulates a slowdown of retreat as the ice stream becomes laterally confined at the mouth of the Minch strait between mainland Scotland and the Isle of Lewis, resulting in a marine setting similar to many large tidewater glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. At this stage of the simulation, the presence of an ice shelf becomes a more important control on grounded ice volume, providing buttressing to upstream ice. Subsequently, the presence of a reverse slope inside the Minch strait produces an acceleration in retreat, leading to a “collapsed” state, even when the climate returns to the initial “cold” conditions. Our simulations demonstrate the importance of the marine ice sheet instability and ice shelf buttressing during the deglaciation of parts of the British–Irish Ice Sheet. We conclude that geological data could be applied to further constrain these processes in ice sheet models used for projecting the future of contemporary ice sheets.
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Mulder, T. E., S. Baars, F. W. Wubs e H. A. Dijkstra. "Stochastic marine ice sheet variability". Journal of Fluid Mechanics 843 (23 de março de 2018): 748–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2018.148.
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It is well known that deterministic two-dimensional marine ice sheets can only be stable if the grounding line is positioned at a sufficiently steep, downward sloping bedrock. When bedrock conditions favour instabilities, multiple stable ice sheet profiles may occur. Here, we employ continuation techniques to examine the sensitivity of a two-dimensional marine ice sheet to stochastic noise representing short time scale variability, either in the accumulation rate or in the sea level height. We find that in unique regimes, the position of the grounding line is most sensitive to noise in the accumulation rate and can explain excursions observed in field measurements. In the multiple equilibrium regime, there is a strong asymmetry in transition probabilities between the different ice sheet states, with a strong preference to switch to the branch with a steeper bedrock slope.
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HASELOFF, MARIANNE, e OLGA V. SERGIENKO. "The effect of buttressing on grounding line dynamics". Journal of Glaciology 64, n.º 245 (7 de maio de 2018): 417–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.30.
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ABSTRACTDetermining the position and stability of the grounding line of a marine ice sheet is a major challenge for ice-sheet models. Here, we investigate the role of lateral shear and ice-shelf buttressing in grounding line dynamics by extending an existing boundary layer theory to laterally confined marine ice sheets. We derive an analytic expression for the ice flux at the grounding line of confined marine ice sheets that depends on both local bed properties and non-local ice-shelf properties. Application of these results to a laterally confined version of the MISMIP 1a experiment shows that the boundary condition at the ice-shelf front (i.e. the calving law) is a major control on the location and stability of the grounding line in the presence of buttressing, allowing for both stable and unstable grounding line positions on downwards sloping beds. These results corroborate the findings of existing numerical studies that the stability of confined marine ice sheets is influenced by ice-shelf properties, in contrast to unconfined configurations where grounding line stability is solely determined by the local slope of the bed. Consequently, the marine ice-sheet instability hypothesis may not apply to buttressed marine ice sheets.
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Schoof, Christian. "Marine ice sheet stability". Journal of Fluid Mechanics 698 (15 de março de 2012): 62–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2012.43.
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AbstractWe examine the stability of two-dimensional marine ice sheets in steady state. The dynamics of marine ice sheets is described by a viscous thin-film model with two Stefan-type boundary conditions at the moving boundary or ‘grounding line’ that marks the transition from grounded to floating ice. One of these boundary conditions constrains ice thickness to be at a local critical value for flotation, which depends on depth to bedrock at the grounding line. The other condition sets ice flux as a function of ice thickness at the grounding line. Depending on the shape of the bedrock, multiple equilibria may be possible. Using a linear stability analysis, we confirm a long-standing heuristic argument that asserts that the stability of these equilibria is determined by a simple mass balance consideration. If an advance in the grounding line away from its steady-state position leads to a net mass gain, the steady state is unstable, and stable otherwise. This also confirms that grounding lines can only be stable in positions where bedrock slopes downwards sufficiently steeply.
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Pegler, Samuel S. "Suppression of marine ice sheet instability". Journal of Fluid Mechanics 857 (25 de outubro de 2018): 648–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2018.742.
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A long-standing open question in glaciology concerns the propensity for ice sheets that lie predominantly submerged in the ocean (marine ice sheets) to destabilise under buoyancy. This paper addresses the processes by which a buoyancy-driven mechanism for the retreat and ultimate collapse of such ice sheets – the marine ice sheet instability – is suppressed by lateral stresses acting on its floating component (the ice shelf). The key results are to demonstrate the transition between a mode of stable (easily reversible) retreat along a stable steady-state branch created by ice-shelf buttressing to tipped (almost irreversible) retreat across a critical parametric threshold. The conditions for triggering tipped retreat can be controlled by the calving position and other properties of the ice-shelf profile and can be largely independent of basal stress, in contrast to principles established from studies of unbuttressed grounding-line dynamics. The stability and recovery conditions introduced by lateral stresses are analysed by developing a method of constructing grounding-line stability (bifurcation) diagrams, which provide a rapid assessment of the steady-state positions, their natures and the conditions for secondary grounding, giving clear visualisations of global stabilisation conditions. A further result is to reveal the possibility of a third structural component of a marine ice sheet that lies intermediate to the fully grounded and floating components. The region forms an extended grounding area in which the ice sheet lies very close to flotation, and there is no clearly distinguished grounding line. The formation of this region generates an upsurge in buttressing that provides the most feasible mechanism for reversal of a tipped grounding line. The results of this paper provide conceptual insight into the phenomena controlling the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the collapse of which has the potential to dominate future contributions to global sea-level rise.
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Pegler, Samuel S. "Marine ice sheet dynamics: the impacts of ice-shelf buttressing". Journal of Fluid Mechanics 857 (25 de outubro de 2018): 605–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2018.741.
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Marine ice sheets are continent-scale glacial masses that lie partially submerged in the ocean, as applies to significant regions of Antarctica and Greenland. Such ice sheets have the potential to destabilise under a buoyancy-driven instability mechanism, with considerable implications for future sea level. This paper and its companion present a theoretical analysis of marine ice sheet dynamics under the effect of a potentially dominant control of the buttressing force generated by lateral stresses on the downstream floating component of the ice sheet (the ice shelf). The analysis reveals critical conditions under which ice-shelf buttressing suppresses the buoyancy-driven collapse of an ice sheet and elucidates the implications of lateral stresses on grounding-line control and overall ice-sheet structure. Integrations of a suitably simplified quasi-two-dimensional model are conducted, yielding analytical results that provide a quick assessment of steady-state balances for a given ice-sheet configuration. An analytical balance equation describing the spectrum of marine ice sheet flow regimes spanning zero to strong ice-shelf buttressing is developed. It is determined that the dynamics across this spectrum exhibits markedly different flow regimes and structural characteristics. For sufficient buttressing, the grounding line occurs near to where a lateral-drag controlled section of the ice shelf meets the bedrock, implying an independent control of the grounding line by the ice shelf. The role of basal stresses is relegated to controlling only the thickness of the ice sheet upstream of the grounding line, with no significant control of the grounding line itself. It is further demonstrated that lateral stresses are responsible for inducing additional secondary contacts between the ice shelf and the bedrock downstream of the grounding line, resulting in a rich variety of additional steady states. These inducements generate a further stabilising mechanism that can fully suppress grounding-line retreat and eliminate otherwise irreparable hysteresis effects. The results provide a conceptual framework for numerical and observational interpretation of marine ice sheet dynamics, and clarifies the manner in which ice shelves can control grounding-line positions independently. It is thus indicated that a full resolution of the fine details of the flow of ice shelves and the processes controlling their erosion and disintegration is necessary for the confident forecasting of possible ice-sheet collapse over the course of the next few centuries.
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Meur, E. Le, e Richard C. A. Hindmarsh. "Coupled marine-ice-sheet/Earth dynamics using a dynamically consistent ice-sheet model and a self-gravitating viscous Earth model". Journal of Glaciology 47, n.º 157 (2001): 258–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756501781832322.
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AbstractWe use a self-gravitating viscoelastic model of the Earth and a dynamically consistent marine ice-sheet model to study the relationships between marine ice-sheet dynamics, relative sea level, basal topography and bedrock dynamics. Our main conclusion is that sea-level change and lithospheric coupling are likely to have played limited roles in the postglacial retreat of marine ice sheets. The postglacial rise in sea level would only have caused at the most around 100 km of grounding-line retreat for an ice sheet of similar dimensions to the West Antarctic ice sheet, compared with the several hundred km of retreat which has occurred in the Ross Sea. There is no evidence that reverse slopes lead to instability. Incorporating coupling with lithospheric dynamics does not produce markedly different effects. The implication of these studies is that marine ice-sheet retreat is the result of physical mechanisms other than lithospheric coupling and sea-level rise.
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Leguy, Gunter R., William H. Lipscomb e Xylar S. Asay-Davis. "Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model". Cryosphere 15, n.º 7 (14 de julho de 2021): 3229–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021.
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Abstract. Ice sheet models differ in their numerical treatment of dynamical processes. Simulations of marine-based ice are sensitive to the choice of Stokes flow approximation and basal friction law and to the treatment of stresses and melt rates near the grounding line. We study the effects of these numerical choices on marine ice sheet dynamics in the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). In the framework of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project 3d (MISMIP3d), we show that a depth-integrated, higher-order solver gives results similar to a 3D (Blatter–Pattyn) solver. We confirm that using a grounding line parameterization to approximate stresses in the grounding zone leads to accurate representation of ice sheet flow with a resolution of ∼2 km, as opposed to ∼0.5 km without the parameterization. In the MISMIP+ experimental framework, we compare different treatments of sub-shelf melting near the grounding line. In contrast to recent studies arguing that melting should not be applied in partly grounded cells, it is usually beneficial in CISM simulations to apply some melting in these cells. This suggests that the optimal treatment of melting near the grounding line can depend on ice sheet geometry, forcing, or model numerics. In both experimental frameworks, ice flow is sensitive to the choice of basal friction law. To study this sensitivity, we evaluate friction laws that vary the connectivity between the basal hydrological system and the ocean near the grounding line. CISM yields accurate results in steady-state and perturbation experiments at a resolution of ∼2 km (arguably 4 km) when the connectivity is low or moderate and ∼1 km (arguably 2 km) when the connectivity is strong.
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Tsai, Victor C., Andrew L. Stewart e Andrew F. Thompson. "Marine ice-sheet profiles and stability under Coulomb basal conditions". Journal of Glaciology 61, n.º 226 (2015): 205–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/2015jog14j221.
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AbstractThe behavior of marine-terminating ice sheets, such as the West Antarctic ice sheet, is of interest due to the possibility of rapid grounding-line retreat and consequent catastrophic loss of ice. Critical to modeling this behavior is a choice of basal rheology, where the most popular approach is to relate the ice-sheet velocity to a power-law function of basal stress. Recent experiments, however, suggest that near-grounding line tills exhibit Coulomb friction behavior. Here we address how Coulomb conditions modify ice-sheet profiles and stability criteria. The basal rheology necessarily transitions to Coulomb friction near the grounding line, due to low effective stresses, leading to changes in ice-sheet properties within a narrow boundary layer. Ice-sheet profiles ‘taper off’ towards a flatter upper surface, compared with the power-law case, and basal stresses vanish at the grounding line, consistent with observations. In the Coulomb case, the grounding-line ice flux also depends more strongly on flotation ice thickness, which implies that ice sheets are more sensitive to climate perturbations. Furthermore, with Coulomb friction, the ice sheet grounds stably in shallower water than with a power-law rheology. This implies that smaller perturbations are required to push the grounding line into regions of negative bed slope, where it would become unstable. These results have important implications for ice-sheet stability in a warming climate.
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Zweck, Chris, e Philippe Huybrechts. "Modeling the marine extent of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial cycle". Annals of Glaciology 37 (2003): 173–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756403781815870.
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AbstractMechanisms that determine time-dependent changes of the marine ice margin in dynamic ice-sheet models are important but poorly understood. Here we derive an empirical formulation for changes in the marine extent when modelling the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle in a three-dimensional thermomechanically coupled ice-sheet model. We assume that the strongest control on changes in marine extent is ice calving, and that the variable most crucial to calving is water depth. The empirical marine-extent relationship is tuned so that the major marine-retreat history of the Laurentide and Eurasian ice sheets is modelled accurately in time and space. We find that this empirical treatment relating marine extent to water depth is sufficient to reproduce the observations, and discuss the implications for the physics of marine margin changes and the dynamics of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets since the Last Glacial Maximum.
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Robel, Alexander A., Earle Wilson e Helene Seroussi. "Layered seawater intrusion and melt under grounded ice". Cryosphere 16, n.º 2 (8 de fevereiro de 2022): 451–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022.
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Abstract. Increasing melt of ice sheets at their floating or vertical interfaces with the ocean is a major driver of marine ice sheet retreat and sea level rise. However, the extent to which warm, salty seawater may drive melting under the grounded portions of ice sheets is still not well understood. Previous work has explored the possibility that dense seawater intrudes beneath relatively light subglacial freshwater discharge, similar to the “salt wedge” observed in many estuarine systems. In this study, we develop a generalized theory of layered seawater intrusion under grounded ice, including where subglacial hydrology occurs as a macroporous water sheet over impermeable beds or as microporous Darcy flow through permeable till. Using predictions from this theory, we show that seawater intrusion over flat or reverse-sloping impermeable beds may feasibly occur up to tens of kilometers upstream of a glacier terminus or grounding line. On the other hand, seawater is unlikely to intrude more than tens of meters through permeable till. Simulations using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) show that even just a few hundred meters of basal melt caused by seawater intrusion upstream of marine ice sheet grounding lines can cause projections of marine ice sheet volume loss to be 10 %–50 % higher. Kilometers of intrusion-induced basal melt can cause projected ice sheet volume loss to more than double. These results suggest that further observational, experimental and numerical investigations are needed to determine the conditions under which seawater intrusion occurs and whether it will indeed drive rapid marine ice sheet retreat and sea level rise in the future.
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Peyaud, V., C. Ritz e G. Krinner. "Modelling the Early Weichselian Eurasian Ice Sheets: role of ice shelves and influence of ice-dammed lakes". Climate of the Past 3, n.º 3 (2 de julho de 2007): 375–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-375-2007.
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Abstract. During the last glaciation, a marine ice sheet repeatedly appeared in Eurasia. The floating part of this ice sheet was essential to its rapid extension over the seas. During the earliest stage (90 kyr BP), large ice-dammed lakes formed south of the ice sheet. These lakes are believed to have cooled the climate at the margin of the ice. Using an ice sheet model, we investigated the role of ice shelves during the inception and the influence of ice-dammed lakes on the ice sheet evolution. Inception in Barents sea seems due to thickening of a large ice shelf. We observe a substantial impact of the lakes on the evolution of the ice sheets. Reduced summer ablation enhances ice extent and thickness, and the deglaciation is delayed by 2000 years.
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Peyaud, V., C. Ritz e G. Krinner. "Modelling the Early Weichselian Eurasian Ice Sheets: role of ice shelves and influence of ice-dammed lakes". Climate of the Past Discussions 3, n.º 1 (26 de janeiro de 2007): 221–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-3-221-2007.
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Abstract. During the last glaciation, a marine ice sheet repeatedly appeared in Eurasia. The floating part of this ice sheet was essential to its rapid extension over the seas. During the earliest stage (90 kyr BP), large ice-dammed lakes formed south of the ice sheet. These lakes are believed to have cooled the climate at the margin of the ice. Using an ice sheet model, we investigated the role of ice shelves during the inception and the influence of ice-dammed lakes on the ice sheet evolution. Inception in Barents sea seems due to thickening of a large ice shelf. We observe a substantial impact of the lakes on the evolution of the ice sheets. Reduced summer ablation enhances ice extent and thickness, and the deglaciation is delayed by 2000 years.
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Hindmarsh, Richard C. A., e E. Le Meur. "Dynamical processes involved in the retreat of marine ice sheets". Journal of Glaciology 47, n.º 157 (2001): 271–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756501781832269.
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AbstractMarine ice sheets with mechanics described by the shallow-ice approximation by definition do not couple mechanically with the shelf. Such ice sheets are known to have neutral equilibria. We consider the implications of this for their dynamics and in particular for mechanisms which promote marine ice-sheet retreat. The removal of ice-shelf buttressing leading to enhanced flow in grounded ice is discounted as a significant influence on mechanical grounds. Sea-level rise leading to reduced effective pressures under ice streams is shown to be a feasible mechanism for producing postglacial West Antarctic ice-sheet retreat but is inconsistent with borehole evidence. Warming thins the ice sheet by reducing the average viscosity but does not lead to grounding-line retreat. Internal oscillations either specified or generated via a MacAyeal–Payne thermal mechanism promote migration. This is a noise-induced drift phenomenon stemming from the neutral equilibrium property of marine ice sheets. This migration occurs at quite slow rates, but these are sufficiently large to have possibly played a role in the dynamics of the West Antarctic ice sheet after the glacial maximum. Numerical experiments suggest that it is generally true that while significant changes in thickness can be caused by spatially uniform changes, spatial variability coupled with dynamical variability is needed to cause margin movement.
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Cofaigh, Colm Ó. "Ice sheets viewed from the ocean: the contribution of marine science to understanding modern and past ice sheets". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 370, n.º 1980 (13 de dezembro de 2012): 5512–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0398.
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Over the last two decades, marine science, aided by technological advances in sediment coring, geophysical imaging and remotely operated submersibles, has played a major role in the investigation of contemporary and former ice sheets. Notable advances have been achieved with respect to reconstructing the extent and flow dynamics of the large polar ice sheets and their mid-latitude counterparts during the Quaternary from marine geophysical and geological records of landforms and sediments on glacier-influenced continental margins. Investigations of the deep-sea ice-rafted debris record have demonstrated that catastrophic collapse of large (10 5 –10 6 km 2 ) ice-sheet drainage basins occurred on millennial and shorter time scales and had a major influence on oceanography. In the last few years, increasing emphasis has been placed on understanding physical processes at the ice–ocean interface, particularly at the grounding line, and on determining how these processes affect ice-sheet stability. This remains a major challenge, however, owing to the logistical constraints imposed by working in ice-infested polar waters and ice-shelf cavities. Furthermore, despite advances in reconstructing the Quaternary history of mid- and high-latitude ice sheets, major unanswered questions remain regarding West Antarctic ice-sheet stability, and the long-term offshore history of the East Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets remains poorly constrained. While these are major research frontiers in glaciology, and ones in which marine science has a pivotal role to play, realizing such future advances will require an integrated collaborative approach between oceanographers, glaciologists, marine geologists and numerical modellers.
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Christ, Andrew J., Tammy M. Rittenour, Paul R. Bierman, Benjamin A. Keisling, Paul C. Knutz, Tonny B. Thomsen, Nynke Keulen et al. "Deglaciation of northwestern Greenland during Marine Isotope Stage 11". Science 381, n.º 6655 (21 de julho de 2023): 330–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.ade4248.
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Past interglacial climates with smaller ice sheets offer analogs for ice sheet response to future warming and contributions to sea level rise; however, well-dated geologic records from formerly ice-free areas are rare. Here we report that subglacial sediment from the Camp Century ice core preserves direct evidence that northwestern Greenland was ice free during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 interglacial. Luminescence dating shows that sediment just beneath the ice sheet was deposited by flowing water in an ice-free environment 416 ± 38 thousand years ago. Provenance analyses and cosmogenic nuclide data and calculations suggest the sediment was reworked from local materials and exposed at the surface <16 thousand years before deposition. Ice sheet modeling indicates that ice-free conditions at Camp Century require at least 1.4 meters of sea level equivalent contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet.
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Kleman, J., J. Fastook, K. Ebert, J. Nilsson e R. Caballero. "Pre-LGM Northern Hemisphere ice sheet topography". Climate of the Past 9, n.º 5 (22 de outubro de 2013): 2365–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2365-2013.
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Abstract. We here reconstruct the paleotopography of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the glacial maxima of marine isotope stages (MIS) 5b and 4.We employ a combined approach, blending geologically based reconstruction and numerical modeling, to arrive at probable ice sheet extents and topographies for each of these two time slices. For a physically based 3-D calculation based on geologically derived 2-D constraints, we use the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM) to calculate ice sheet thickness and topography. The approach and ice sheet modeling strategy is designed to provide robust data sets of sufficient resolution for atmospheric circulation experiments for these previously elusive time periods. Two tunable parameters, a temperature scaling function applied to a spliced Vostok–GRIP record, and spatial adjustment of the climatic pole position, were employed iteratively to achieve a good fit to geological constraints where such were available. The model credibly reproduces the first-order pattern of size and location of geologically indicated ice sheets during marine isotope stages (MIS) 5b (86.2 kyr model age) and 4 (64 kyr model age). From the interglacial state of two north–south obstacles to atmospheric circulation (Rocky Mountains and Greenland), by MIS 5b the emergence of combined Quebec–central Arctic and Scandinavian–Barents-Kara ice sheets had increased the number of such highland obstacles to four. The number of major ice sheets remained constant through MIS 4, but the merging of the Cordilleran and the proto-Laurentide Ice Sheet produced a single continent-wide North American ice sheet at the LGM.
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Zhang, Zhe. "Reviewing the elements of marine ice cliff instability". Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2152, n.º 1 (1 de janeiro de 2022): 012057. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2152/1/012057.
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Abstract Antarctica’s ice sheets are the largest potential sea-level rise contributors, but projections of future sea-level rise yield wide ranges of estimates under different emission scenarios. An important factor in the variability of estimates is marine ice cliff instability (MICI). Inclusion of MICI yields the highest potential sea-level rise cases but also the largest uncertainty due to poor understanding of the factors that control it and the mechanisms of how it happens. Although evidence for MICI has been implied by paleo-ice sheet studies and observations of keel plough mark on sea-floor, recent statistical and modelling studies have suggested a lower magnitude of MICI effect on sea-level rise due to thinning of ice sheets and buttressing forces exerted on potentially failing cliffs. This paper reviews the factors that control MICI with the goal of identifying priorities for modern ice sheet studies to better bound the estimates.
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McKenzie, Marion A., Lauren E. Miller, Allison P. Lepp e Regina DeWitt. "Spatial variability of marine-terminating ice sheet retreat in the Puget Lowland". Climate of the Past 20, n.º 4 (10 de abril de 2024): 891–908. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-891-2024.
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Abstract. Understanding drivers of marine-terminating ice sheet behavior is important for constraining ice contributions to global sea level rise. In part, the stability of marine-terminating ice is influenced by solid Earth conditions at the grounded-ice margin. While the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) contributed significantly to global mean sea level during its final post-Last-Glacial-Maximum (LGM) collapse, the drivers and patterns of retreat are not well constrained. Coastal outcrops in the deglaciated Puget Lowland of Washington State – largely below sea level during glacial maxima, then uplifted above sea level via glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) – record the late Pleistocene history of the CIS. The preservation of LGM glacial and post-LGM deglacial sediments provides a unique opportunity to assess the variability in marine ice sheet behavior of the southernmost CIS. Based on paired stratigraphic and geochronological work, with a newly developed marine reservoir correction for this region, we identify that the late-stage CIS experienced stepwise retreat into a marine environment between 15 000 and 14 000 years before present, consistent with timing of marine incursion into the region reported in earlier works. Standstill of marine-terminating ice for at least 500 years, paired with rapid vertical landscape evolution, was followed by continued retreat of ice in a subaerial environment. These results suggest rapid rates of solid Earth uplift and topographic support (e.g., grounding zone wedges) stabilized the ice margin, supporting final subaerial ice retreat. This work leads to a better understanding of shallow-marine and coastal-ice-sheet retreat and is relevant to sectors of the contemporary Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and marine-terminating outlet glaciers.
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Asay-Davis, X. S., S. L. Cornford, G. Durand, B. K. Galton-Fenzi, R. M. Gladstone, G. H. Gudmundsson, T. Hattermann et al. "Experimental design for three interrelated Marine Ice-Sheet and Ocean Model Intercomparison Projects". Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 8, n.º 11 (11 de novembro de 2015): 9859–924. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-9859-2015.
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Abstract. Coupled ice sheet-ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the ice shelf-ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet-ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for evaluation of the participating models.
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Sun, Sainan, Frank Pattyn, Erika G. Simon, Torsten Albrecht, Stephen Cornford, Reinhard Calov, Christophe Dumas et al. "Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)". Journal of Glaciology 66, n.º 260 (14 de setembro de 2020): 891–904. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.67.
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AbstractAntarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.
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Asay-Davis, Xylar S., Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann et al. "Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1)". Geoscientific Model Development 9, n.º 7 (25 de julho de 2016): 2471–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016.
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Abstract. Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet–ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models.
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Kleman, J., J. Fastook, K. Ebert, J. Nilsson e R. Caballero. "Pre-LGM Northern Hemisphere paleo-ice sheet topography". Climate of the Past Discussions 9, n.º 3 (17 de maio de 2013): 2557–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-2557-2013.
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Abstract. We here reconstruct the paleotopgraphy of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the glacial maxima of marine isotope stages (MIS) 5b and 4. We employ two approaches, geologically based reconstruction and numerical modeling, in mutually supportive roles to arrive at probable ice sheet extents and topographies for each of these two time slices. For a physically based 3-D calculation based on geologically derived 2-D constraints, we use the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM) to calculate ice-sheet thickness and topography. The approach and ice-sheet modeling strategy is designed to provide robust data sets of sufficient resolution for atmospheric circulation experiments for these previously elusive time periods. Two tunable parameters, a temperature scaling function applied to a spliced Vostok-GRIP record, and spatial adjustment of climatic pole position, were employed iteratively to achieve a good fit to geological constraints where such were available. The model credibly reproduces the first-order pattern of size and location of geologically indicated ice sheets during marine isotope stages (MIS) 5b (86.2 kyr model age) and 4 (64 kyr model age). From the interglacial state of two north-south obstacles to atmospheric circulation (Rocky Mountains and Greenland), by MIS 5b combined Quebec-Central Arctic and Scandinavian–Barents/Kara ice sheets had effectively increased the number of such highland obstacles to four. This number remained constant through MIS 4, but at the last glacial maximum (LGM) dropped to three, through the merging of the Cordilleran and the proto-Laurentide Ice Sheet to a single continent-wide North American ice sheet.
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SCHOOF, CHRISTIAN. "Marine ice-sheet dynamics. Part 1. The case of rapid sliding". Journal of Fluid Mechanics 573 (fevereiro de 2007): 27–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022112006003570.
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Marine ice sheets are continental ice masses resting on bedrock below sea level. Their dynamics are similar to those of land-based ice sheets except that they must couple with the surrounding floating ice shelves at the grounding line, where the ice reaches a critical flotation thickness. In order to predict the evolution of the grounding line as a free boundary, two boundary conditions are required for the diffusion equation describing the evolution of the grounded-ice thickness. By analogy with Stefan problems, one of these conditions imposes a prescribed ice thickness at the grounding line and arises from the fact that the ice becomes afloat. The other condition must be determined by coupling the ice sheet to the surrounding ice shelves. Here we employ matched asymptotic expansions to study the transition from ice-sheet to ice-shelf flow for the case of rapidly sliding ice sheets. Our principal results are that the ice flux at the grounding line in a two-dimensional ice sheet is an increasing function of the depth of the sea floor there, and that ice thicknesses at the grounding line must be small compared with ice thicknesses inland. These results indicate that marine ice sheets have a discrete set of steady surface profiles (if they have any at all) and that the stability of these steady profiles depends on the slope of the sea floor at the grounding line.
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Favier, Lionel, Frank Pattyn, Sophie Berger e Reinhard Drews. "Dynamic influence of pinning points on marine ice-sheet stability: a numerical study in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica". Cryosphere 10, n.º 6 (9 de novembro de 2016): 2623–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2623-2016.
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Abstract. The East Antarctic ice sheet is likely more stable than its West Antarctic counterpart because its bed is largely lying above sea level. However, the ice sheet in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, contains marine sectors that are in contact with the ocean through overdeepened marine basins interspersed by grounded ice promontories and ice rises, pinning and stabilising the ice shelves. In this paper, we use the ice-sheet model BISICLES to investigate the effect of sub-ice-shelf melting, using a series of scenarios compliant with current values, on the ice-dynamic stability of the outlet glaciers between the Lazarev and Roi Baudouin ice shelves over the next millennium. Overall, the sub-ice-shelf melting substantially impacts the sea-level contribution. Locally, we predict a short-term rapid grounding-line retreat of the overdeepened outlet glacier Hansenbreen, which further induces the transition of the bordering ice promontories into ice rises. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrated that the onset of the marine ice-sheet retreat and subsequent promontory transition into ice rise is controlled by small pinning points, mostly uncharted in pan-Antarctic datasets. Pinning points have a twofold impact on marine ice sheets. They decrease the ice discharge by buttressing effect, and they play a crucial role in initialising marine ice sheets through data assimilation, leading to errors in ice-shelf rheology when omitted. Our results show that unpinning increases the sea-level rise by 10 %, while omitting the same pinning point in data assimilation decreases it by 10 %, but the more striking effect is in the promontory transition time, advanced by two centuries for unpinning and delayed by almost half a millennium when the pinning point is missing in data assimilation. Pinning points exert a subtle influence on ice dynamics at the kilometre scale, which calls for a better knowledge of the Antarctic margins.
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Drouet, A. S., D. Docquier, G. Durand, R. Hindmarsh, F. Pattyn, O. Gagliardini e T. Zwinger. "Grounding line transient response in marine ice sheet models". Cryosphere Discussions 6, n.º 5 (18 de setembro de 2012): 3903–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tcd-6-3903-2012.
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Abstract. Marine ice sheet stability is mostly controlled by the dynamics of the grounding line, i.e., the junction between the grounded ice sheet and the floating ice shelf. Grounding line migration has been investigated in the framework of MISMIP (Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project), which mainly aimed at investigating steady state solutions. Here we focus on transient behaviour, executing short-term simulations (200 yr) of a steady ice sheet perturbed by the release of the buttressing restraint exerted by the ice shelf on the grounded ice upstream. The transient grounding line behaviour of four different flowline ice sheet models has been compared. The models differ in the physics implemented (full-Stokes and Shallow Shelf Approximation), the numerical approach, as well as the grounding line treatment. Their overall response to the loss of buttressing is found to be consistent in terms of grounding line position, rate of surface elevation change and surface velocity. However, large discrepancies (>100%) are observed in terms of ice sheet contribution to sea level. Despite the recent important improvements of marine ice sheet models in their ability to compute steady-state configurations, our results question models' capacity to compute reliable sea-level rise projections.
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Mas e Braga, Martim, Jorge Bernales, Matthias Prange, Arjen P. Stroeven e Irina Rogozhina. "Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c". Cryosphere 15, n.º 1 (28 de janeiro de 2021): 459–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021.
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Abstract. Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0–8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7–8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 ∘C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years.
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Sergienko, O. V., e D. J. Wingham. "Grounding line stability in a regime of low driving and basal stresses". Journal of Glaciology 65, n.º 253 (12 de setembro de 2019): 833–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.53.
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AbstractThe dynamics of a marine ice sheet's grounding lines determine the rate of ice discharge from the grounded part of ice sheet into surrounding oceans. In many locations in West Antarctica ice flows into ice shelves through ice streams experiencing low driving stress. However, existing simple theories of marine ice sheets are developed under the assumption of high basal and driving stress. Here we analyze the grounding line behavior of marine ice streams experiencing low basal shear and driving stress. We find that in this regime, the ice flux at the grounding line is a complex function of the geometry of the ice-stream bed, net accumulation rate and gradient of the net accumulation rate. Our analysis shows that the stability of distinct steady states is determined by the same parameters, suggesting a more complex (in)stability criterion than what is commonly referred to within the context of the ‘marine ice-sheet instability hypothesis’. We also determine characteristic timescales (e-folding time) of ice-sheet configurations perturbed from their steady states. These timescales can be used to determine whether particular configurations can be considered in isolation from other components of the climate system or whether their effects and feedbacks between the ice sheet and the rest of the climate system have to be taken into account.
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van Dongen, Eef C. H., Nina Kirchner, Martin B. van Gijzen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas Zwinger, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt e Lina von Sydow. "Dynamically coupling full Stokes and shallow shelf approximation for marine ice sheet flow using Elmer/Ice (v8.3)". Geoscientific Model Development 11, n.º 11 (16 de novembro de 2018): 4563–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018.
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Abstract. Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve due to the nonlinearity introduced by the rheology. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are commonly used, especially when modeling a marine ice sheet (ice sheet, ice shelf, and/or ice stream) for 103 years or longer. The shallow ice approximation (SIA) and shallow shelf approximation (SSA) are commonly used but are accurate only for certain parts of an ice sheet. Here, we report a novel way of iteratively coupling FS and SSA that has been implemented in Elmer/Ice and applied to conceptual marine ice sheets. The FS–SSA coupling appears to be very accurate; the relative error in velocity compared to FS is below 0.5 % for diagnostic runs and below 5 % for prognostic runs. Results for grounding line dynamics obtained with the FS–SSA coupling are similar to those obtained from an FS model in an experiment with a periodical temperature forcing over 3000 years that induces grounding line advance and retreat. The rapid convergence of the FS–SSA coupling shows a large potential for reducing computation time, such that modeling a marine ice sheet for thousands of years should become feasible in the near future. Despite inefficient matrix assembly in the current implementation, computation time is reduced by 32 %, when the coupling is applied to a 3-D ice shelf.
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Pollard, Oliver G., Natasha L. M. Barlow, Lauren J. Gregoire, Natalya Gomez, Víctor Cartelle, Jeremy C. Ely e Lachlan C. Astfalck. "Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6)". Cryosphere 17, n.º 11 (10 de novembro de 2023): 4751–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023.
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Abstract. The North Sea Last Interglacial sea level is sensitive to the fingerprint of mass loss from polar ice sheets. However, the signal is complicated by the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment driven by Penultimate Glacial Period ice-sheet changes, and yet these ice-sheet geometries remain significantly uncertain. Here, we produce new reconstructions of the Eurasian ice sheet during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (PGM) by employing large ensemble experiments from a simple ice-sheet model that depends solely on basal shear stress, ice extent, and topography. To explore the range of uncertainty in possible ice geometries, we use a parameterised shear-stress map as input that has been developed to incorporate bedrock characteristics and the influence of ice-sheet basal processes. We perform Bayesian uncertainty quantification, utilising Gaussian process emulation, to calibrate against global ice-sheet reconstructions of the Last Deglaciation and rule out combinations of input parameters that produce unrealistic ice sheets. The refined parameter space is then applied to the PGM to create an ensemble of constrained 3D Eurasian ice-sheet geometries. Our reconstructed PGM Eurasian ice-sheet volume is 48±8 m sea-level equivalent (SLE). We find that the Barents–Kara Sea region displays both the largest mean volume and volume uncertainty of 24±8 m SLE while the British–Irish sector volume of 1.7±0.2 m SLE is the smallest. Our new workflow may be applied to other locations and periods where ice-sheet histories have limited empirical data.
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Van der Veen, C. J. "Response of a Marine Ice Sheet to Changes at the Grounding Line". Quaternary Research 24, n.º 3 (novembro de 1985): 257–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(85)90049-3.
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A numerical model was designed to study the stability of a marine ice sheet, and used to do some basic experiments. The ice-shelf/ice-sheet interaction enters through the flow law in which the longitudinal stress is also taken into account. Instead of applying the model to some (measured) profile and showing that this is unstable (as is common practice in other studies), an attempt is made to simulate a whole cycle of growth and retreat of a marine ice sheet, although none of the model sheets is particularly sensitive to changes in environmental conditions. The question as to what might happen to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the near future when a climatic warming can be expecied as a result of the CO2 effect, seems to be open for discussion again. From the results presented in this paper one can infer that a collapse, caused by increased melting on the ice shelves, is not very likely.
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Drouet, A. S., D. Docquier, G. Durand, R. Hindmarsh, F. Pattyn, O. Gagliardini e T. Zwinger. "Grounding line transient response in marine ice sheet models". Cryosphere 7, n.º 2 (1 de março de 2013): 395–406. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-395-2013.
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Abstract. Marine ice-sheet stability is mostly controlled by the dynamics of the grounding line, i.e. the junction between the grounded ice sheet and the floating ice shelf. Grounding line migration has been investigated within the framework of MISMIP (Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project), which mainly aimed at investigating steady state solutions. Here we focus on transient behaviour, executing short-term simulations (200 yr) of a steady ice sheet perturbed by the release of the buttressing restraint exerted by the ice shelf on the grounded ice upstream. The transient grounding line behaviour of four different flowline ice-sheet models has been compared. The models differ in the physics implemented (full Stokes and shallow shelf approximation), the numerical approach, as well as the grounding line treatment. Their overall response to the loss of buttressing is found to be broadly consistent in terms of grounding line position, rate of surface elevation change and surface velocity. However, still small differences appear for these latter variables, and they can lead to large discrepancies (> 100%) observed in terms of ice sheet contribution to sea level when cumulated over time. Despite the recent important improvements of marine ice-sheet models in their ability to compute steady state configurations, our results question the capacity of these models to compute short-term reliable sea-level rise projections.
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Berg, Sonja, Bernd Wagner, Duanne A. White e Martin Melles. "No significant ice-sheet expansion beyond present ice margins during the past 4500 yr at Rauer Group, East Antarctica". Quaternary Research 74, n.º 1 (julho de 2010): 23–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2010.04.004.
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AbstractThe history of glacial advances and retreats of the East Antarctic ice sheet during the Holocene is not well-known, due to limited field evidence in both the marine and terrestrial realm. A 257-cm-long sediment core was recovered from a marine inlet in the Rauer Group, East Antarctica, 1.8 km in front of the present ice-sheet margin. Radiocarbon dating and lithological characteristics reveal that the core comprises a complete marine record since 4500 yr. A significant ice-sheet expansion beyond present ice margins therefore did not occur during this period.
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Halberstadt, Anna Ruth W., Greg Balco, Hannah Buchband e Perry Spector. "Cosmogenic-nuclide data from Antarctic nunataks can constrain past ice sheet instabilities". Cryosphere 17, n.º 4 (13 de abril de 2023): 1623–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023.
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Abstract. We apply geologic evidence from ice-free areas in Antarctica to evaluate model simulations of ice sheet response to warm climates. This is important because such simulations are used to predict ice sheet behaviour in future warm climates, but geologic evidence of smaller-than-present past ice sheets is buried under the present ice sheet and therefore generally unavailable for model benchmarking. We leverage an alternative accessible geologic dataset for this purpose: cosmogenic-nuclide concentrations in bedrock surfaces of interior nunataks. These data produce a frequency distribution of ice thickness over multimillion-year periods, which is also simulated by ice sheet modelling. End-member transient models, parameterized with strong and weak marine ice sheet instability processes and ocean temperature forcings, simulate large and small sea-level impacts during warm periods and also predict contrasting and distinct frequency distributions of ice thickness. We identify regions of Antarctica where predicted frequency distributions reveal differences in end-member ice sheet behaviour. We then demonstrate that a single comprehensive dataset from one bedrock site in West Antarctica is sufficiently detailed to show that the data are consistent only with a weak marine ice sheet instability end-member, but other less extensive datasets are insufficient and/or ambiguous. Finally, we highlight locations where collecting additional data could constrain the amplitude of past and therefore future response to warm climates.
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Matero, Ilkka S. O., Lauren J. Gregoire e Ruza F. Ivanovic. "Simulating the Early Holocene demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet with BISICLES (public trunk revision 3298)". Geoscientific Model Development 13, n.º 9 (25 de setembro de 2020): 4555–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4555-2020.
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Abstract. Simulating the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet covering Hudson Bay in the Early Holocene (10–7 ka) is important for understanding the role of accelerated changes in ice sheet topography and melt in the 8.2 ka event, a century long cooling of the Northern Hemisphere by several degrees. Freshwater released from the ice sheet through a surface mass balance instability (known as the saddle collapse) has been suggested as a major forcing for the 8.2 ka event, but the temporal evolution of this pulse has not been constrained. Dynamical ice loss and marine interactions could have significantly accelerated the ice sheet demise, but simulating such processes requires computationally expensive models that are difficult to configure and are often impractical for simulating past ice sheets. Here, we developed an ice sheet model setup for studying the Laurentide Ice Sheet's Hudson Bay saddle collapse and the associated meltwater pulse in unprecedented detail using the BISICLES ice sheet model, an efficient marine ice sheet model of the latest generation which is capable of refinement to kilometre-scale resolutions and higher-order ice flow physics. The setup draws on previous efforts to model the deglaciation of the North American Ice Sheet for initialising the ice sheet temperature, recent ice sheet reconstructions for developing the topography of the region and ice sheet, and output from a general circulation model for a representation of the climatic forcing. The modelled deglaciation is in agreement with the reconstructed extent of the ice sheet, and the associated meltwater pulse has realistic timing. Furthermore, the peak magnitude of the modelled meltwater equivalent (0.07–0.13 Sv) is compatible with geological estimates of freshwater discharge through the Hudson Strait. The results demonstrate that while improved representations of the glacial dynamics and marine interactions are key for correctly simulating the pattern of Early Holocene ice sheet retreat, surface mass balance introduces by far the most uncertainty. The new model configuration presented here provides future opportunities to quantify the range of plausible amplitudes and durations of a Hudson Bay ice saddle collapse meltwater pulse and its role in forcing the 8.2 ka event.
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Marshall, Shawn J., Lev Tarasov, Garry K. C. Clarke e W. Richard Peltier. "Glaciological reconstruction of the Laurentide Ice Sheet: physical processes and modelling challenges". Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences 37, n.º 5 (1 de maio de 2000): 769–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/e99-113.
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Current understanding of Pleistocene ice-sheet history is based on collective inferences from three separate avenues of study: (1) the geologic and paleoceanographic records, (2) the isostatic record, and (3) the behaviour of contemporary glaciers and ice sheets. The geologic record provides good constraint on the areal extent of former ice sheets, while isostatic deflection patterns provide important information about late-glacial ice-sheet thickness. The picture emerging from geologic and isostatic deductions is suggestive of a thin and mobile Laurentide Ice Sheet relative to present-day Greenland and Antarctica. We model Laurentide Ice Sheet evolution through a glacial cycle to explore the glaciological mechanisms that are required to replicate the geologic and isostatic evidence. A number of glaciological processes important to the ice-sheet evolution are not fully understood, including marine-based ice dynamics, iceberg calving, rheologic properties of ice, and basal flow dynamics. We present a spectrum of glacial cycle simulations with different treatments of poorly constrained physical processes. We conclude that glaciological model reconstructions can only be reconciled with the late-glacial geologic record of a thin, low-sloping Laurentide Ice Sheet by invoking (1) extremely deformable ice, (2) widespread basal flow, or (3) paleoclimate-ice-sheet fluctuations which give last glacial maximum ice sheets that are far from equilibrium.
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Choudhury, Dipayan, Axel Timmermann, Fabian Schloesser, Malte Heinemann e David Pollard. "Simulating Marine Isotope Stage 7 with a coupled climate–ice sheet model". Climate of the Past 16, n.º 6 (13 de novembro de 2020): 2183–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020.
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Abstract. It is widely accepted that orbital variations are responsible for the generation of glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene. However, the relative contributions of the orbital forcing compared to CO2 variations and other feedback mechanisms causing the waxing and waning of ice sheets have not been fully understood. Testing theories of ice ages beyond statistical inferences, requires numerical modeling experiments that capture key features of glacial transitions. Here, we focus on the glacial buildup from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7 to 6 covering the period from 240 to 170 ka (ka: thousand years before present). This transition from interglacial to glacial conditions includes one of the fastest Pleistocene glaciation–deglaciation events, which occurred during MIS 7e–7d–7c (236–218 ka). Using a newly developed three-dimensional coupled atmosphere–ocean–vegetation–ice sheet model (LOVECLIP), we simulate the transient evolution of Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere ice sheets during the MIS 7–6 period in response to orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. For a range of model parameters, the simulations capture the evolution of global ice volume well within the range of reconstructions. Over the MIS 7–6 period, it is demonstrated that glacial inceptions are more sensitive to orbital variations, whereas terminations from deep glacial conditions need both orbital and greenhouse gas forcings to work in unison. For some parameter values, the coupled model also exhibits a critical North American ice sheet configuration, beyond which a stationary-wave–ice-sheet topography feedback can trigger an unabated and unrealistic ice sheet growth. The strong parameter sensitivity found in this study originates from the fact that delicate mass imbalances, as well as errors, are integrated during a transient simulation for thousands of years. This poses a general challenge for transient coupled climate–ice sheet modeling, with such coupled paleo-simulations providing opportunities to constrain such parameters.
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Patton, H., A. Hubbard, T. Bradwell, N. F. Glasser, M. J. Hambrey e C. D. Clark. "Rapid marine deglaciation: asynchronous retreat dynamics between the Irish Sea Ice Stream and terrestrial outlet glaciers". Earth Surface Dynamics Discussions 1, n.º 1 (23 de agosto de 2013): 277–309. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esurfd-1-277-2013.
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Abstract. Understanding the retreat behaviour of past marine-ice sheets provides vital context to accurate assessment of the present stability and long-term response of contemporary polar-ice sheets to climate and oceanic warming. Here new multibeam swath-bathymetry data and sedimentological analysis are combined with high resolution ice-sheet modelling to reveal complex landform assemblages and process-dynamics associated with deglaciation of the British-Celtic Ice Sheet (BCIS) within the Irish Sea Basin. Our reconstruction indicates a non-linear relationship between the rapidly receding Irish Sea Ice Stream, the largest draining the BCIS, and the retreat of outlet glaciers draining the adjacent, terrestrially based ice sheet centred over Wales. Retreat of Welsh ice was episodic; superimposed over low-order oscillations of its margin are asynchronous outlet re-advances driven by catchment-wide mass balance variations that are amplified through migration of the ice cap's main ice-divide. Formation of large, linear ridges which extend at least 12.5 km offshore (locally known as sarns) and dominate the regional bathymetry are attributed to repeated frontal and medial morainic deposition associated with the re-advancing phases of these outlet glaciers. Our study provides new insight into ice-sheet extent, dynamics and non-linear retreat across a major palaeo-ice stream confluence zone, and has ramifications for the interpretation of recent fluctuations observed by satellites over short-time scales across marine-sectors of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
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Blasco, Javier, Ilaria Tabone, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson e Marisa Montoya. "The Antarctic Ice Sheet response to glacial millennial-scale variability". Climate of the Past 15, n.º 1 (17 de janeiro de 2019): 121–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-121-2019.
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Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is the largest ice sheet on Earth and hence a major potential contributor to future global sea-level rise. A wealth of studies suggest that increasing oceanic temperatures could cause a collapse of its marine-based western sector, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, through the mechanism of marine ice-sheet instability, leading to a sea-level increase of 3–5 m. Thus, it is crucial to constrain the sensitivity of the AIS to rapid climate changes. The last glacial period is an ideal benchmark period for this purpose as it was punctuated by abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger events at millennial timescales. Because their center of action was in the North Atlantic, where their climate impacts were largest, modeling studies have mainly focused on the millennial-scale evolution of Northern Hemisphere (NH) paleo ice sheets. Sea-level reconstructions attribute the origin of millennial-scale sea-level variations mainly to NH paleo ice sheets, with a minor but not negligible role of the AIS. Here we investigate the AIS response to millennial-scale climate variability for the first time. To this end we use a three-dimensional, thermomechanical hybrid, ice sheet–shelf model. Different oceanic sensitivities are tested and the sea-level equivalent (SLE) contributions computed. We find that whereas atmospheric variability has no appreciable effect on the AIS, changes in submarine melting rates can have a strong impact on it. We show that in contrast to the widespread assumption that the AIS is a slow reactive and static ice sheet that responds at orbital timescales only, it can lead to ice discharges of around 6 m SLE, involving substantial grounding line migrations at millennial timescales.
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Kaplan, Michael R., W. Tad Pfeffer, Christophe Sassolas e Gifford H. Miller. "Numerical modelling of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in the Baffin Island region: the role of a Cumberland Sound ice stream". Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences 36, n.º 8 (21 de agosto de 1999): 1315–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/e99-027.
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A numerical model reconstruction was made of the northeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet in the Baffin Island - Foxe Basin region using geophysical, terrestrial, and marine geologic evidence for initial and boundary conditions. The simulated ice sheet consists of a Foxe Dome with additional smaller Hall and Amadjuak domes and a Penny Ice Divide. A specific objective was to determine boundary conditions that would allow advance of a marine-based low surface slope ice stream into and out of Cumberland Sound, a major marine embayment in the uplifted rim of the eastern Canadian Arctic (up to 1200 m deep), while maintaining ice free or nonsliding (e.g., cold-based) thin ice on adjacent plateaus of Cumberland Peninsula; this scenario accommodates interpretations based on terrestrial and marine studies in this region. After an initial ice-sheet configuration is placed on the eastern Arctic terrain, basal sliding is allowed in specified regions. Basal sliding below sea level and between the Foxe Dome and Cumberland Sound and a reasonable but critical initial ice sheet volume and dome surface elevation are needed to obtain advance along and out of Cumberland Sound. Rapid flow into Hudson Strait and along Cumberland Sound causes drawdown and a change in ice-sheet configuration. Although more Foxe Dome ice flows into western Hudson Strait than Cumberland Sound in the simulations, the latter may still have been an important conduit connecting the interior of the northeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet to the Labrador Sea, thereby affecting regional ice sheet dynamics, specifically ice surface elevations and flow paths.
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Jong, Lenneke M., Rupert M. Gladstone, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi e Matt A. King. "Simulated dynamic regrounding during marine ice sheet retreat". Cryosphere 12, n.º 7 (25 de julho de 2018): 2425–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2425-2018.
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Abstract. Marine-terminating ice sheets are of interest due to their potential instability, making them vulnerable to rapid retreat. Modelling the evolution of glaciers and ice streams in such regions is key to understanding their possible contribution to sea level rise. The friction caused by the sliding of ice over bedrock and the resultant shear stress are important factors in determining the velocity of sliding ice. Many models use simple power-law expressions for the relationship between the basal shear stress and ice velocity or introduce an effective-pressure dependence into the sliding relation in an ad hoc manner. Sliding relations based on water-filled subglacial cavities are more physically motivated, with the overburden pressure of the ice included. Here we show that using a cavitation-based sliding relation allows for the temporary regrounding of an ice shelf at a point downstream of the main grounding line of a marine ice sheet undergoing retreat across a retrograde bedrock slope. This suggests that the choice of sliding relation is especially important when modelling grounding line behaviour of regions where potential ice rises and pinning points are present and regrounding could occur.
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Fogwill, C. J., C. S. M. Turney, N. R. Golledge, D. H. Rood, K. Hippe, L. Wacker, R. Wieler, E. B. Rainsley e R. S. Jones. "Drivers of abrupt Holocene shifts in West Antarctic ice stream direction determined from combined ice sheet modelling and geologic signatures". Antarctic Science 26, n.º 6 (13 de novembro de 2014): 674–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102014000613.
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AbstractDetermining the millennial-scale behaviour of marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is critical to improve predictions of the future contribution of Antarctica to sea level rise. Here high-resolution ice sheet modelling was combined with new terrestrial geological constraints (in situ14C and 10Be analysis) to reconstruct the evolution of two major ice streams entering the Weddell Sea over 20 000 years. The results demonstrate how marked differences in ice flux at the marine margin of the expanded Antarctic ice sheet led to a major reorganization of ice streams in the Weddell Sea during the last deglaciation, resulting in the eastward migration of the Institute Ice Stream, triggering a significant regional change in ice sheet mass balance during the early to mid Holocene. The findings highlight how spatial variability in ice flow can cause marked changes in the pattern, flux and flow direction of ice streams on millennial timescales in this marine ice sheet setting. Given that this sector of the WAIS is assumed to be sensitive to ocean-forced instability and may be influenced by predicted twenty-first century ocean warming, our ability to model and predict abrupt and extensive ice stream diversions is key to a realistic assessment of future ice sheet sensitivity.
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Hinck, Sebastian, Evan J. Gowan, Xu Zhang e Gerrit Lohmann. "PISM-LakeCC: Implementing an adaptive proglacial lake boundary in an ice sheet model". Cryosphere 16, n.º 3 (14 de março de 2022): 941–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022.
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Abstract. During the Late Pleistocene and Holocene retreat of paleo-ice sheets in North America and Europe, vast proglacial lakes existed along the land terminating margins. These proglacial lakes impacted ice sheet dynamics by imposing boundary conditions analogous to a marine terminating margin. Such lacustrine boundary conditions cause changes in the ice sheet geometry, stress balance and frontal ablation and therefore affect the mass balance of the entire ice sheet. Despite this, dynamically evolving proglacial lakes have rarely been considered in detail in ice sheet modeling endeavors. In this study, we describe the implementation of an adaptive lake boundary in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), which we call PISM-LakeCC. We test our model with a simplified glacial retreat setup of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). By comparing the experiments with lakes to control runs with no lakes, we show that the presence of proglacial lakes locally enhances the ice flow, which leads to a lowering of the ice sheet surface. In some cases, this also results in an advance of the ice margin and the emergence of ice lobes. In the warming climate, increased melting on the lowered ice surface drives the glacial retreat. For the LIS, the presence of lakes triggers a process similar to marine ice sheet instability, which caused the collapse of the ice saddle over Hudson Bay. In the control experiments without lakes, Hudson Bay is still glaciated when the climate reaches present-day (PD) conditions. The results of our study demonstrate that glacio-lacustrine interactions play a significant role in the retreat of land terminating ice sheet margins.
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Robel, Alexander A., Hélène Seroussi e Gerard H. Roe. "Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, n.º 30 (8 de julho de 2019): 14887–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1904822116.
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Sea-level rise may accelerate significantly if marine ice sheets become unstable. If such instability occurs, there would be considerable uncertainty in future sea-level rise projections due to imperfectly modeled ice sheet processes and unpredictable climate variability. In this study, we use mathematical and computational approaches to identify the ice sheet processes that drive uncertainty in sea-level projections. Using stochastic perturbation theory from statistical physics as a tool, we show mathematically that the marine ice sheet instability greatly amplifies and skews uncertainty in sea-level projections with worst-case scenarios of rapid sea-level rise being more likely than best-case scenarios of slower sea-level rise. We also perform large ensemble simulations with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model of Thwaites Glacier, a marine-terminating glacier in West Antarctica that is thought to be unstable. These ensemble simulations indicate that the uncertainty solely related to internal climate variability can be a large fraction of the total ice loss expected from Thwaites Glacier. We conclude that internal climate variability alone can be responsible for significant uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise and that large ensembles are a necessary tool for quantifying the upper bounds of this uncertainty.
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Patton, H., A. Hubbard, T. Bradwell, N. F. Glasser, M. J. Hambrey e C. D. Clark. "Rapid marine deglaciation: asynchronous retreat dynamics between the Irish Sea Ice Stream and terrestrial outlet glaciers". Earth Surface Dynamics 1, n.º 1 (3 de dezembro de 2013): 53–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-53-2013.
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Abstract. Understanding the retreat behaviour of past marine-based ice sheets provides vital context for accurate assessments of the present stability and long-term response of contemporary polar ice sheets to climate and oceanic warming. Here new multibeam swath bathymetry data and sedimentological analysis are combined with high resolution ice-sheet modelling to reveal complex landform assemblages and process dynamics associated with deglaciation of the Celtic ice sheet within the Irish Sea Basin. Our reconstruction indicates a non-linear relationship between the rapidly receding Irish Sea Ice Stream and the retreat of outlet glaciers draining the adjacent, terrestrially based ice cap centred over Wales. Retreat of Welsh ice was episodic; superimposed over low-order oscillations of its margin are asynchronous outlet readvances driven by catchment-wide mass balance variations that are amplified through migration of the ice cap's main ice divide. Formation of large, linear ridges which extend at least 12.5 km offshore (locally known as sarns) and which dominate the regional bathymetry are attributed to repeated frontal and medial morainic deposition associated with the readvancing phases of these outlet glaciers. Our study provides new insight into ice-sheet extent, dynamics and non-linear retreat across a major palaeo-ice stream confluence zone, and has ramifications for the interpretation of recent fluctuations observed by satellites over short timescales across marine sectors of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
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van Aalderen, Victor, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas e Aurélien Quiquet. "Relative importance of the mechanisms triggering the Eurasian ice sheet deglaciation in the GRISLI2.0 ice sheet model". Climate of the Past 20, n.º 1 (18 de janeiro de 2024): 187–209. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-187-2024.
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Abstract. The last deglaciation (21 to 8 ka) of the Eurasian ice sheet (EIS) is thought to have been responsible for a sea level rise of about 20 m. While many studies have examined the timing and rate of the EIS retreat during this period, many questions remain about the key processes that triggered the EIS deglaciation 21 kyr ago. Due to its large marine-based parts in the Barents–Kara (BKIS) and British Isles sectors, the BKIS is often considered to be a potential analogue of the current West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS). Identifying the mechanisms that drove the EIS evolution might provide a better understanding of the processes at play in the West Antarctic destabilization. To investigate the relative impact of key drivers on the EIS destabilization, we used the three-dimensional ice sheet model GRISLI (GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice) (version 2.0) forced by climatic fields from five Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 4 (PMIP3, PMIP4) Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) simulations. In this study, we performed sensitivity experiments to test the response of the simulated Eurasian ice sheets to surface climate, oceanic temperatures (and thus basal melting under floating ice tongues), and sea level perturbations. Our results highlight that the EIS retreat simulated with the GRISLI model is primarily triggered by atmospheric warming. Increased atmospheric temperatures further amplify the sensitivity of the ice sheets to sub-shelf melting. These results contradict those of previous modelling studies mentioning the central role of basal melting on the deglaciation of the marine-based Barents–Kara ice sheet. However, we argue that the differences with previous works are mainly related to differences in the methodology followed to generate the initial LGM ice sheet. Due to the strong sensitivity of EIS to the atmospheric forcing highlighted with the GRISLI model and the limited extent of the confined ice shelves during the LGM, we conclude by questioning the analogy between EIS and the current WAIS. However, because of the expected rise in atmospheric temperatures, the risk of hydrofracturing is increasing and could ultimately put the WAIS in a configuration similar to the past Eurasian ice sheet.
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Goelzer, Heiko, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer e Roderik van de Wal. "Brief communication: On calculating the sea-level contribution in marine ice-sheet models". Cryosphere 14, n.º 3 (5 de março de 2020): 833–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020.
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Abstract. Estimating the contribution of marine ice sheets to sea-level rise is complicated by ice grounded below sea level that is replaced by ocean water when melted. The common approach is to only consider the ice volume above floatation, defined as the volume of ice to be removed from an ice column to become afloat. With isostatic adjustment of the bedrock and external sea-level forcing that is not a result of mass changes of the ice sheet under consideration, this approach breaks down, because ice volume above floatation can be modified without actual changes in the sea-level contribution. We discuss a consistent and generalised approach for estimating the sea-level contribution from marine ice sheets.
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Liakka, J., M. Löfverström e F. Colleoni. "The impact of the North American ice sheet on the evolution of the Eurasian ice sheet during the last glacial cycle". Climate of the Past Discussions 11, n.º 6 (10 de novembro de 2015): 5203–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-5203-2015.
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Abstract. Modeling studies show that the massive ice sheet expanding over the North American and Eurasian continents in the last glacial cycle has a large impact on the atmospheric stationary waves and thus yielded a glacial climate distinctly different from the present. However, to what extent the two ice sheets influenced each others growth trajectories remains largely unexplored. In this study we investigate how ice sheets in North America influence the downstream evolution of the Eurasian ice sheet, using a thermomechanical ice-sheet model forced by climate data from snapshot simulations of three distinctly different phases of the last glacial cycle: the Marine Isotope Stages 5b, 4 and 2 (LGM). Our results suggest that changes in the North American paleo-topography may have had a large influence on evolution of the Eurasian ice sheet. In the MIS4 and LGM experiments, the Eurasian ice sheet migrates westward towards the Atlantic sector – largely consistent with geological data and contemporary ice-sheet reconstructions – due to a low wavenumber stationary wave response, which yields a cooling in Europe and a warming in northeastern Siberia. The expansion of the North American ice sheet between MIS4 and LGM amplifies the Siberian warm anomaly, which limits the glaciation there and may therefore help to explain the progressive westward migration of the Eurasian ice sheet over this time period. While the Eurasian ice sheet in the MIS4 and LGM experiments appears to be in equilibrium with the simulated climate conditions, the MIS5b climate forcing is too warm to grow an ice sheet. First-order sensitivity experiments suggest that most of the MIS5b ice sheet was established during preceding colder stages.
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Case, John A., e Andrew Barnard. "Marine and lacustrine ice fracture detection". Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 154, n.º 4_supplement (1 de outubro de 2023): A133. http://dx.doi.org/10.1121/10.0023029.
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Ice fracturing has been extensively studied and modeled. With increased interest in ice mechanics and fracturing in recent years in climate science, fisheries, and for cultural impacts, detecting and classifying fracturing events has become an important problem to consider. Fractures primarily occur due to stress relief within an ice sheet during temperature shifts and ice movement. These events create mechanical waves within the sheet that couple into the water column which can then be detected as pressure and particle velocity fluctuations. Machine learning algorithms will be used to detect and classify ice cracking events though their acoustic signature. Different models will be compared to one another for effectiveness and accuracy. Data will be shown from several different locations, including Northern Alaska and the Great Lakes.
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Box, Jason E., e William Colgan. "Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance Reconstruction. Part III: Marine Ice Loss and Total Mass Balance (1840–2010)". Journal of Climate 26, n.º 18 (9 de setembro de 2013): 6990–7002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00546.1.
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Abstract Greenland ice sheet mass loss to the marine environment occurs by some combination of iceberg calving and underwater melting (referred to here as marine ice loss, LM). This study quantifies the relation between LM and meltwater runoff (R) at the ice sheet scale. A theoretical basis is presented explaining how variability in R can be expected to govern much of the LM variability over annual to decadal time scales. It is found that R enhances LM through three processes: 1) increased glacier discharge by ice warming–softening and basal lubrication–sliding; 2) increased calving susceptibility through undercutting glacier front geometry and reducing ice integrity; and 3) increased underwater melting from forcing marine convection. Applying a semiempirical LM f(R) parameterization to a surface mass balance reconstruction enables total ice sheet mass budget closure over the 1840–2010 period. The estimated cumulative 171-yr net ice sheet sea level contribution is 25 ± 10 mm, the rise punctuated by periods of ice sheet net mass gain (sea level drawdown) (1893–1900, 1938–47, and 1972–98). The sea level contribution accelerated at 27.6 mm yr−1 century−1 over the entire reconstruction, reaching a peak sea level rise contribution of 6.1 mm decade−1 during 2002–10.