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Artigos de revistas sobre o tema "Macroeconometric"

Autor: Grafiati

Publicado: 4 de junho de 2021

Última modificação: 1 de fevereiro de 2022

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1

Smith, Peter N., e Ray C. Fair. "Testing Macroeconometric Models." Economic Journal 105, n.º 433 (novembro de 1995): 1669. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2235135.

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2

Cappelen, Ådne. "Testing macroeconometric models". Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 20, n.º 9-10 (setembro de 1996): 1809–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(95)00923-x.

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3

Joutz, Fred. "Testing of macroeconometric models". International Journal of Forecasting 12, n.º 4 (dezembro de 1996): 559–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(96)00694-2.

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4

Welfe, Wladyslaw. "Long-term macroeconometric models". Economic Modelling 28, n.º 1-2 (janeiro de 2011): 741–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.05.002.

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5

Pesaran, M. H., e R. P. Smith. "Evaluation of macroeconometric models". Economic Modelling 2, n.º 2 (abril de 1985): 125–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(85)90018-5.

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6

Bolatbayeva, Aizhan, Alisher Tolepbergen e Nurdaulet Abilov. "A macroeconometric model for Russia". Russian Journal of Economics 6, n.º 2 (30 de junho de 2020): 114–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.6.47009.

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The paper outlines a structural macroeconometric model for the economy of Russia. The aim of the research is to analyze how the domestic economy functions, generate forecasts for important macroeconomic indicators and evaluate the responses of main endogenous variables to various shocks. The model is estimated based on quarterly data starting from 2001 to 2019. The majority of the equations are specified in error correction form due to the non-stationarity of variables. Stochastic simulation is used to solve the model for expost and ex-ante analysis. We compare forecasts of the model with forecasts generated by the VAR model. The results indicate that the present model outperforms the VAR model in terms of forecasting GDP growth, inflation rate and unemployment rate. We also evaluate the responses of main macroeconomic variables to VAT rate and world trade shocks via stochastic simulation. Finally, we generate ex-ante forecasts for the Russian economy under the baseline assumptions.

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7

Čížek, Ondřej. "Macroeconometric Model of the Eurozone". Politická ekonomie 63, n.º 3 (1 de junho de 2015): 279–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1003.

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8

Boumans, Marcel, e Pedro Garcia Duarte. "The History of Macroeconometric Modeling". History of Political Economy 51, n.º 3 (1 de junho de 2019): 391–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-7551828.

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9

Andersen, Ellen. "Danish Experience with Macroeconometric Models". Scandinavian Journal of Economics 93, n.º 2 (junho de 1991): 315. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3440337.

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10

Welfe, Władysław. "Multicountry and Regional Macroeconometric Models". Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe 15, n.º 4 (8 de março de 2013): 293–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10103-012-0042-6.

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Multicountry models were developed in the previous century to serve the analyses and projections of the world economy and/or its regions (for instance Latin America). They distinguish the largest countries and the rest of the world (ROW) composed of particular countries. Hence, their structure is based on the specifications of equations for individual countries using full statistical information available at the countries level. The regional macroeconomic models are built for either administrative or geographical units distinguished within large countries (USA, China, Russia). Their structure should be in principle similar to those of the national economy. However, the statistical information of the regional economies is typically uncomplete: no sufficient information is available on exports and imports of the region, migrations and financial flows. Appropriate approximations are necessary. As in majority of countries the prices and wages movements are in general unified over the country, the variables representing the national level excerpt an impact on the regional variables. The regional impact on the national variables is rather unusual. The paper shows the skeleton model applied in the multicountry models and the skeleton of the macroeconomic regional model. The specific properties of the regional model are discussed and the possibilities of its extensions analysed.

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11

Bårdsen, Gunnar, Dag Kolsrud e Ragnar Nymoen. "Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models". Journal of Forecasting 36, n.º 6 (22 de março de 2017): 629–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.2459.

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12

Chishti, Salim U., M. Aynul Hasan e Syed F. Mahmud. "Macroeconometric modelling and Pakistan's economy". Journal of Development Economics 38, n.º 2 (abril de 1992): 353–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(92)90004-s.

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13

Weyerstrass, Klaus, e Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein. "A Macroeconometric Model for Serbia". International Advances in Economic Research 19, n.º 2 (29 de janeiro de 2013): 85–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11294-013-9393-4.

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14

Garrison, Roger W., Ronald G. Bodkin, Lawrence R. Klein e Kanta Marwah. "A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building". Southern Economic Journal 58, n.º 4 (abril de 1992): 1129. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1060252.

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15

Kenway, Peter, Ronald G. Bodkin, Lawrence R. Klein e Kanta Marwah. "A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building." Economic Journal 102, n.º 413 (julho de 1992): 972. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2234599.

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16

Akbar, Muhammad, e Eatzaz Ahmad. "A Review of Macroeconometric Modeling Practices". Forman Journal of Economic Studies 10 (30 de dezembro de 2014): 17–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.32368/fjes.20141002.

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17

Haque, Nadeem U., Kajal Lahiri e Peter J. Montiel. "A Macroeconometric Model for Developing Countries". Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund 37, n.º 3 (setembro de 1990): 537. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3867264.

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18

Wallis, Kenneth F. "Comparing Macroeconometric Models: A Review Article". Economica 60, n.º 238 (maio de 1993): 225. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2554590.

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19

Deleau, M., C. Le Van e P. Malgrange. "The Long Run of Macroeconometric Models". IFAC Proceedings Volumes 22, n.º 5 (junho de 1989): 265–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1474-6670(17)53461-8.

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20

Smith, Ron. "Emergent policy-making with macroeconometric models". Economic Modelling 15, n.º 3 (julho de 1998): 429–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0264-9993(98)00021-2.

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21

Granger, Clive W. J. "OVERVIEW OF NONLINEAR MACROECONOMETRIC EMPIRICAL MODELS". Macroeconomic Dynamics 5, n.º 4 (setembro de 2001): 466–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100501023021.

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A survey of nonlinear multivariate macro empirical models is attempted. Although theory may suggest that nonlinearity is to be expected, empirical studies have difficulty in discovering strong consistent effects. Regime switching techniques appear to be the most successful and evidence of nonlinearity is most found for interest rates. Most of the studies emphasize model fitting rather than model evaluation, which limits their usefulness.

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22

PESARAN, M. HASHEM, e RON SMITH. "MACROECONOMETRIC MODELLING WITH A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE*". Manchester School 74, s1 (setembro de 2006): 24–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2006.00516.x.

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23

Colander, D. C. "A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building". History of Political Economy 26, n.º 1 (1 de março de 1994): 169–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-26-1-169.

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24

Backhouse, Roger E., e Beatrice Cherrier. "The Ordinary Business of Macroeconometric Modeling". History of Political Economy 51, n.º 3 (1 de junho de 2019): 425–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-7551852.

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25

WALLIS, KENNETH F. "On Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconometric Models*". Economic Record 69, n.º 2 (junho de 1993): 113–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1993.tb01808.x.

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26

Fisher, Paul G., e Kenneth F. Wallis. "Seasonality in large-scale macroeconometric models". Journal of Forecasting 11, n.º 4 (junho de 1992): 255–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980110402.

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27

Moss, Scott, Michael Artis e Paul Ormerod. "A smart automated macroeconometric forecasting system". Journal of Forecasting 13, n.º 3 (maio de 1994): 299–312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980130305.

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28

Aminu, Alarudeen, e Joshua Adeyemi Ogunjimi. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of Nigeria". Economy 6, n.º 2 (2019): 41–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.20448/journal.502.2019.62.41.55.

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29

Fair, Ray C. "FAIRMODEL SITE". Macroeconomic Dynamics 2, n.º 2 (junho de 1998): 284–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100598007068.

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The Internet has greatly expanded the way in which large-scale structural macroeconometric models can be used and disseminated. This note describes a site that has been created for this purpose: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu.

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30

Carrasco e Gregoir. "Policy Evaluation in Macroeconometric Doubly Stochastic Models". Annales d'Économie et de Statistique, n.º 67/68 (2002): 73. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/20076343.

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31

Fair, Ray C. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model". Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 1, n.º 2007-8 (2007): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2007-8.

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32

Pasha, Hafiz A., M. Aynul Hasan, Aisha Ghaus e M. Ajaz Rasheed. "Integrated Social-sector Macroeconometric Model for Pakistan". Pakistan Development Review 35, n.º 4II (1 de dezembro de 1996): 567–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v35i4iipp.567-579.

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While the traditional neoclassical production model postulates that it is the physical inputs such as private capital, labour, land, and technology that are the key determinants of output and economic development, in recent years, however, the social sector variables are also considered to be critical, particularly for the long-run sustainable growth of the economy. If fact, what has been argued in the form of “new growth theories” is that social variables (e.g., education, health, knowledge, etc.) generate “positive externalities” and, thus, may facilitate and foster the process of economic growth and development. Recently, the World Bank, based on a broad cross-country study, found some very interesting results in the above context. According to the World Development Report (1991): about fifty percent of the factor productivity contribution to output growth comes not from traditional physical inputs (capital, labour and land) but is a residual factor. This unexplained factor, in the past, has been labelled (or as the Report called it “baptised”) as “technological change”, however, the World Bank (1991, p. 42) claims that:

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33

Hall, Stephen G., e Ray C. Fair. "Specification, Estimation and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models." Economica 52, n.º 207 (agosto de 1985): 401. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2553869.

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34

Weyerstrass, Klaus. "A Macroeconometric Model for Bosnia and Herzegovina". Eastern European Economics 47, n.º 5 (setembro de 2009): 61–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.2753/eee0012-8775470504.

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35

Bean, C. R., e Ray C. Fair. "Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models." Economic Journal 95, n.º 378 (junho de 1985): 491. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2233227.

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36

Lodewijks, John. "Macroeconometric Models and the Methodology of Macroeconomics". History of Economics Society Bulletin 11, n.º 1 (1989): 33–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1042771600005767.

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“The stimulation given by the General Theory to the construction and testing of aggregative models may well prove to be Keynes's chief contribution to economics in the longer perspective of historical judgement.”

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37

Eitrheim, Øyvind, Tore Anders Husebø e Ragnar Nymoen. "Equilibrium-correction vs. differencing in macroeconometric forecasting". Economic Modelling 16, n.º 4 (dezembro de 1999): 515–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0264-9993(99)00014-0.

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38

Dreger, Christian, e Massimiliano Marcellino. "A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy". Journal of Policy Modeling 29, n.º 1 (janeiro de 2007): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2006.01.007.

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39

Klein, Lawrence R., Fyodor I. Kushnirsky e Svitlana V. Maksymenko. "Macroeconometric study of Ukraine's growth and reform". Journal of Policy Modeling 34, n.º 3 (maio de 2012): 325–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.02.003.

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40

Bacchini, Fabio, Alessandro Girardi e Carmine Pappalardo. "Macroeconometric models in practice: the Istat experience". International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics 5, n.º 3 (2015): 345. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijcee.2015.070618.

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41

TURNER, DAVID S., KENNETH F. WALLIS e JOHN D. WHITLEY. "EVALUATING SPECIAL EMPLOYMENT MEASURES WITH MACROECONOMETRIC MODELS". Oxford Review of Economic Policy 3, n.º 3 (1987): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/3.3.1-b.

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42

Kannapiran, Chinna. "A macroeconometric model of a developing economy". Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 8, n.º 1 (janeiro de 2003): 41–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1354786032000045237.

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43

Howrey, E. Philip, e Ray C. Fair. "Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models." Journal of the American Statistical Association 81, n.º 393 (março de 1986): 261. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2288018.

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44

Fair, Ray C. "Computing median unbiased estimates in macroeconometric models". Journal of Applied Econometrics 11, n.º 4 (julho de 1996): 431–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1255(199607)11:4<431::aid-jae396>3.0.co;2-x.

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45

Qin, Duo, Marie Anne Cagas, Geoffrey Ducanes, Xinhua He, Rui Liu, Shiguo Liu, Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos e Pilipinas Quising. "A macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy". Economic Modelling 24, n.º 5 (setembro de 2007): 814–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.02.005.

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46

Engels, J. R. "On simulation and optimization of macroeconometric models". European Journal of Operational Research 61, n.º 3 (setembro de 1992): 357–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(92)90364-f.

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47

Christodoulakis, Nicos, e Martin Weale. "The stock exchange in a macroeconometric model". Economic Modelling 4, n.º 3 (julho de 1987): 341–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(87)90008-3.

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48

Lipumba, Nguyuru, Benno Ndulu, Sue Horton e André Plourde. "A supply constrained macroeconometric model of Tanzania". Economic Modelling 5, n.º 4 (outubro de 1988): 354–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(88)90009-0.

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49

Sakellariou, Christos N., e D. Juliet Howland. "An expenditure determined macroeconometric model of Greece". Economic Modelling 10, n.º 1 (janeiro de 1993): 35–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(93)90011-4.

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50

Beenstock, Michael, Yaakov Lavi e Akiva Offenbacher. "A macroeconometric model for Israel 1962–1990". Economic Modelling 11, n.º 4 (outubro de 1994): 413–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(94)90002-7.

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