Bibliografias temáticas / Macroeconometric

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Literatura científica selecionada sobre o tema "Macroeconometric"

Autor: Grafiati

Publicado: 4 de junho de 2021

Última modificação: 1 de fevereiro de 2022

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Artigos de revistas sobre o assunto "Macroeconometric"

Smith, Peter N., e Ray C. Fair. "Testing Macroeconometric Models." Economic Journal 105, n.º 433 (novembro de 1995): 1669. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2235135.

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Cappelen, Ådne. "Testing macroeconometric models". Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 20, n.º 9-10 (setembro de 1996): 1809–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(95)00923-x.

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Joutz, Fred. "Testing of macroeconometric models". International Journal of Forecasting 12, n.º 4 (dezembro de 1996): 559–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(96)00694-2.

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Welfe, Wladyslaw. "Long-term macroeconometric models". Economic Modelling 28, n.º 1-2 (janeiro de 2011): 741–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.05.002.

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Pesaran, M. H., e R. P. Smith. "Evaluation of macroeconometric models". Economic Modelling 2, n.º 2 (abril de 1985): 125–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(85)90018-5.

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Bolatbayeva, Aizhan, Alisher Tolepbergen e Nurdaulet Abilov. "A macroeconometric model for Russia". Russian Journal of Economics 6, n.º 2 (30 de junho de 2020): 114–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.6.47009.

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The paper outlines a structural macroeconometric model for the economy of Russia. The aim of the research is to analyze how the domestic economy functions, generate forecasts for important macroeconomic indicators and evaluate the responses of main endogenous variables to various shocks. The model is estimated based on quarterly data starting from 2001 to 2019. The majority of the equations are specified in error correction form due to the non-stationarity of variables. Stochastic simulation is used to solve the model for expost and ex-ante analysis. We compare forecasts of the model with forecasts generated by the VAR model. The results indicate that the present model outperforms the VAR model in terms of forecasting GDP growth, inflation rate and unemployment rate. We also evaluate the responses of main macroeconomic variables to VAT rate and world trade shocks via stochastic simulation. Finally, we generate ex-ante forecasts for the Russian economy under the baseline assumptions.

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Čížek, Ondřej. "Macroeconometric Model of the Eurozone". Politická ekonomie 63, n.º 3 (1 de junho de 2015): 279–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1003.

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Boumans, Marcel, e Pedro Garcia Duarte. "The History of Macroeconometric Modeling". History of Political Economy 51, n.º 3 (1 de junho de 2019): 391–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-7551828.

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Andersen, Ellen. "Danish Experience with Macroeconometric Models". Scandinavian Journal of Economics 93, n.º 2 (junho de 1991): 315. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3440337.

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Welfe, Władysław. "Multicountry and Regional Macroeconometric Models". Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe 15, n.º 4 (8 de março de 2013): 293–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10103-012-0042-6.

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Multicountry models were developed in the previous century to serve the analyses and projections of the world economy and/or its regions (for instance Latin America). They distinguish the largest countries and the rest of the world (ROW) composed of particular countries. Hence, their structure is based on the specifications of equations for individual countries using full statistical information available at the countries level. The regional macroeconomic models are built for either administrative or geographical units distinguished within large countries (USA, China, Russia). Their structure should be in principle similar to those of the national economy. However, the statistical information of the regional economies is typically uncomplete: no sufficient information is available on exports and imports of the region, migrations and financial flows. Appropriate approximations are necessary. As in majority of countries the prices and wages movements are in general unified over the country, the variables representing the national level excerpt an impact on the regional variables. The regional impact on the national variables is rather unusual. The paper shows the skeleton model applied in the multicountry models and the skeleton of the macroeconomic regional model. The specific properties of the regional model are discussed and the possibilities of its extensions analysed.

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Teses / dissertações sobre o assunto "Macroeconometric"

Sgherri, Silvia. "Policy evaluation with macroeconometric models". Thesis, University of Warwick, 2000. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/4154/.

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This thesis presents a number of examples where macroeconometric models are employed as useful tools for evaluation of contemporary policy problems. A range of approaches is proposed to shed light on how macromodels can actually contribute to the policy debate. In particular, the thesis emphasises how different models maybe augmented or modified and stresses the need for care in the experimental design of policy simulations. Small stylised models of the UK economy are estimated in the first part of this thesis. They are used to assess the performance of simple monetary policy rules under the current inflation targeting monetary regime. In a monetary policy regime of inflation targeting, the appropriate target band-width can be assessed by calculating the variance of inflation in a macroeconomic model under alternative policy rules. A recent Bank of England study concludes from stochastic simulation of a small semi-structural model that a 'fairly substantial lump of inflation uncertainty' exists in the United Kingdom. In chapter 2 an extended and improved version of that model is developed while their estimates of inflation variability are revised downwards by deploying analytic techniques. In chapter 3 a new small 'semi structural' dynamic model of the UK economy is estimated, with particular attention to the modelling of wages and prices. It is used to assess the performance of simple monetary policy rules, including 'inflation forecast targeting' and 'Taylor' rules, while taking into account different degrees of forward-lookingness in both inflation targeting horizon and wage bargaining. Computation of asymptotic inflation-output standard-error trade-offs is provided under various specifications and parametrisations of the model. Large-scale country models have the convenience to make explicit a complete range of relationships among macroeconomic variables most of which, for obvious reasons, are neglected in smaller dynamic models. As a consequence, such quantitative framework offers an unique opportunity to evaluate not only the aggregate impact of exogenous shocks on the variables of interest, but also to identify the underlying economic mechanisms enabling the transmission of such shocks. In the second part of the thesis, I undertake simulations of the National Institute's Domestic Econometric Model (NIDEM) to analyse the characteristics of the UK monetary transmission mechanism. Chapter 4 emphasises that the impact of interest rate movements on real variables is strictly determined by both the monetary regime at work and the underlying assumptions regarding consumption behaviour. Certainly, the steady integration of the members of the EMU and increasing awareness of the need for closer co-operation in monetary and fiscal policy have stimulated greater interest in modelling interdependencies between European countries and the impact and feedbacks from the rest of the world economy. Many of the key issues have now an international aspect, so it becomes more and more difficult to rely on single-country models to provide necessary analysis. International transmission mechanisms can therefore be better tackled with a multi-country model. The third and last part of this thesis focuses on cross-country asymmetric transmissions in response to a common monetary shock within EMU. In particular, in chapter 5 an empirical analysis of the links between monetary and fiscal policy within EMU is presented. This is done through simulation of a neo-classical highly non-Ricardian multi-country model: the IMF's MULTIMOD Mark III (MM3). Chapter 6 provides further evidence about the effects of embracing a Monetary Union when underlying macroeconomist structures still differ across countries. By use of the same model-based quantitative framework, this chapter examines the role of nominal and real rigidities in European labour markets for the assessment of asymmetries in monetary transmission under various monetary regimes.

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Donyina-Ameyaw, Samuel. "Macroeconometric modelling of the Ghanaian economy". Thesis, University of Warwick, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.416142.

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Al-Jebory, Asam Mohamed A. "Macroeconometric model of Iraq : estimation and forecast". Thesis, Keele University, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.314673.

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Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe. "A disaggregated Marshallian macroeconometric model of South Africa". Pretoria : [s.n.], 2008. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-09242009-231908.

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Acurio, Vasconez Verónica. "A macroeconometric model of energy for public policy". Thesis, Paris 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA010032.

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Depuis la stagflation observée suite à la forte hausse du prix du pétrole en 1973 et 1979, les chocs pétroliers sont considérés comme l’une des sources de fluctuations les plus importantes aux États-Unis comme dans de nombreux pays industrialisés. De nombreux articles ont alors étudié le rôle des chocs pétroliers dans la fluctuation des principales variables macro-économiques à savoir, la croissance, le chômage, l’inflation et les salaires. Cependant, ces travaux n’ont pas encore permis d’aboutir à un consensus. Le débat s’est même intensifié au cours de cette dernière décennie, suite à l’absence de réaction de l’économie réelle pendant la période d’augmentation du prix du pétrole entre 2002 et 2007. En effet, la stagflation ne fut observée qu’au moment de la crise des “subprimes” en 2008. Plusieurs hypothèses furent avancées pour expliquer la différence entre les crises des années 70 et 2000. Blanchard & Gali (2009) et Blanchard & Riggi (2013) évoquent par exemple la réduction de la quantité de pétrole utilisée dans le processus de production, la plus grande flexibilité des salaires réels et la meilleure crédibilité de la politique monétaire. Hamiltion (2009) et Kilian (2008) suggèrent quant à eux la différence dans l’origine des deux chocs pétroliers : un choc de d’offre aux années 70 et un choc de demande aux années 2000. L’objectif de cette thèse est de réexaminer l’impact des chocs pétroliers sur l’économie réelle. Dans un premier temps, sur la base des travaux de Blanchard & Gali, nous proposons trois nouveaux modèles dynamiques d’équilibre général stochastique (DSGE), qui intègrent le pétrole à la fois comme facteur de production et comme bien de consommation. En relâchant plusieurs hypothèses adoptées dans Blanchard & Gali, nos modèles permettent une meilleure simulation de l’économie réelle et donc une étude plus détaillée des mécanismes de transmission des chocs. Dans un second temps, nous analysons plusieurs types d’interventions publiques susceptibles d’atténuer l’impact des chocs pétroliers sur l’économie
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Wang, Yiru. "Essays in macroeconometrics". Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/669927.

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This thesis consists of three chapters on topics in Macroeconometrics. Chapter 1 proposes a method to analyze the relationship between models’ in-sample fit and their out-of-sample density forecasting performance. To this end, I further develop a formal test to capture density forecast breakdowns (DFBs); situations in which the out-of-sample density forecast performance is significantly worse than its anticipated performance. Chapter 2 proposes a novel methodology for identifying and estimating structural breaks in the factor loadings of a high dimensional approximate factor model with an unknown number of latent factors. The approach is robust to structural changes in the volatility of the factors (the second moment of the factors), applicable to multiple structural breaks, and easy to implement for practitioners. Chapter 3 introduces time variation into the local projections framework and proposes an impulse responses estimation methodology under unstable local projections.
Aquesta tesi consta de tres capítols sobre temes en Macroeconometria. El capítol 1 proposa un mètode per analitzar la relació entre l’ajust en mostra de models i el seu rendiment de previsió de densitat fora de mostra. Amb aquesta finalitat, desenvolupo una prova formal per capturar els desglossaments de previsió de densitat (DFB); situacions en què el rendiment previst de la densitat fora de mostra és significativament pitjor que el rendiment previst. El capítol 2 proposa una nova metodologia per identificar i estimar les ruptures estructurals en les càrregues de factors d’un model aproximat dimensional de factor aproximat amb un nombre desconegut de factors latents. L’enfocament és robust a canvis estructurals en la volatilitat dels factors (segon moment dels factors), aplicables a múltiples ruptures estructurals i fàcils d’implementar per als practicants. El capítol 3 introdueix la variació de temps en el marc de les projeccions locals i proposa una metodologia d’estimació de la resposta d’impuls en projeccions locals inestables.

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Laabas, Belkacem. "A macroeconometric model for Algeria : a medium term macroeconometric model for Algeria 1963-1984, a policy simulation approach to Algerian development problems". Thesis, University of Bradford, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/5024.

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This thesis is concerned with the development and use of a macroeconometric model for the Algerian economy between 1963 and 1984. The model was built because of a systematic lack of applied econometric studies pertaining to Algeria at both the macroeconomic and microeconomic level. It is hoped that the model will fill a gap in this area and will contribute to the much neglected field of applied econometric research with regard to Algeria. This lack of applied econometric studies for Algeria meant that the modelling exercise described here has had to rely on an extensive specification search based on evidence relating to Algeria's economic structure and policy, economic theory, and the experience of Less Developed Countries in the area of macroeconomic model-building. The lack of data was a major constraint in this area and part of this study consisted of collecting and compiling a large database. After the country's independence in 1962, Algerian macroeconomic policy aimed to create a strong industrial system and to satisfy the population's basic needs. It relied on heavy industrialisation to modernise the economy, oil revenues to finance development, and central planning as the major tool of macroeconomic regulation. The accumulation rate was high and the growth record was generally good. However high unemployment and inflation, considerable disequilibrium, low productivity, a vulnerable balance of payments and unsustainable external debt are the major macroeconomic problems that policy-makers have had to face. The model's equations were first estimated using the OLS method and were subjected to stringent statistical tests. The degree of test significance and parameter correspondence to a priori views on the economy was good. when the model was constructed, it was estimated using a 2SLS principal component method. The OLD results were found to be reasonably feasible. The equations were collected into a system of 63 equations and solved using dynamic simulation technique. The model was solved successfully and its tracking of historical data was reasonably good. Further tests were carried out to study its dynamic features. Having constructed the model, it was then used extensively to perform simulation analysis. The experiments ranged from those concerning the goverment's current expenditure to its monetary policy. In all, nine simulation exercises were carried out. These were revealing on the workings of the Algerian economy. The model was further used in scenario analysis. First the model was used to develop an ex ante forecast employing a linear trend model for the exogenous variables. The forecast database was used to generate multipliers. The policy analysis was constructed to coincide with the implementation of the Second Five Year Plan (1985-1989). The feasibility of the plan was examined by varying the price of oil according to three hypotheses. The aim of this test was to develop a realistic framework for applied macroeconomic analysis.

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Cook, Stephen. "Essays on macroeconometric modelling with reference to consumer's expenditure". Thesis, University of Oxford, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.361958.

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COSTA, PAULO WERNECK DE ANDRADE. "ADAPTIVE CONTROL OF A MACROECONOMETRIC MODEL WITH MEASUREMENT ERROR". PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 1991. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9400@1.

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CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
O Planejamento econômico, abordado como um problema de controle, tem por objetivo estabelecer trajetórias ótimas (ou sub-ótimas) para as variáveis que estão sujeitas ao controle do Governo. Isto significa dizer que as varáveis de política (controle) não mais serão arbitrariamente determinadas pelos seus planejadores, sendo agora resultantes de um processo de otimização , tendo em vista o cumprimento de metas previamente estabelecidas. Neste artigo aplicamos um controlador adaptativo de certeza equivalente a um modelo macroeconométrico da economia brasileira, considerando erro de medida nas variáveis de estado. A adoção de um controlador adaptativo é justificada tendo em vista as críticas (principalmente a crítica de Lucas) que recaíram sobre os modelos macroeconométricos estacionários. Uma das formas adequadas de se tratar a não estacionariedade de tais modelos é por intermédio de um controlador adaptativo cujo objetivo será controlar e identificar simultaneamente o modelo em questão. Apresentamos uma pequena resenha das aplicações de controle ótimo e controle adaptativo em problema econômicos, ressaltando a aplicação de ambas as técnicas em modelos macroeconométricos com expectativas racionais. Por intermédio de simulações comparamos a política realmente efetivada pelo governo federal e a política ótima obtida via controle ótimo não adaptativo.
Economic planning, when considered as a control problem, has as its objective establishing optimal (or sub-optimal) trajectories for the variables subject to Government Control. This means that the policy variables (control), instead of being arbitrarily determined by the policymakers, will be the result of an optimization process, with the objective of reaching pre-established goals. In this work a Certainly Equivalence Adaptative Control is applied to a macroeconometric model of the Brazilian economy with measurement error. Since the employment of time-invariant models has been widely criticized (Lucas critique) the model used here is time- varying. An adequate way to treat such a case is through an adaptative control scheme, in which control and identification of the model are perfomed simultaneously. By means of simulations the policy obtained with the adaptative controller is compared to the policy adopted by the Brazilian Government.

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Lohani, S. R. "Estimation of missing observations in economic time series, with special reference to macro-econometric modelbuilding for Nepal". Thesis, University of Manchester, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.377725.

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Livros sobre o assunto "Macroeconometric"

Welfe, Władysław. Macroeconometric Models. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34468-8.

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Welfe, Władysław. Macroeconometric Models. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013.

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Ra, Sungsup. Nepal macroeconometric model. Kathmandu, Nepal: Asian Development Bank, Nepal Resident Mission, 2005.

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Fair, Ray C. Testing macroeconometric models. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press, 1994.

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Murphy, Chris. Macroeconometric model of Fiji. Canberra, ACT, Australia: Research School of Pacific Studies, ANU, 1992.

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Klein, Lawrence Robert. Principles of macroeconometric modeling. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1999.

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Singh, Rup. A macroeconometric model for Fiji. New York: Nova Science Publishers, 2008.

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Foundation, African Capacity Building, ed. Macroeconometric modelling and policy analysis. Ibadan: NCEMA / National Centre for Economic Management and Administration, 2004.

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Kenway, P. M. UK macroeconometric models: A survey. Reading: University of Reading. Department of Economics, 1989.

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Karadeloglou, Pavlos V. Macroeconometric model KEPE-LINK (MYKL). Athens: Centre of Planning and Economic Research, 1991.

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Capítulos de livros sobre o assunto "Macroeconometric"

Fair, Ray C. "Macroeconometric Models". In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 8082–89. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_775.

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Fair, Ray C. "Macroeconometric Models". In Econometrics, 148–57. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-20570-7_21.

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Fair, Ray C. "Macroeconometric Models". In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 1–8. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_775-1.

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Reutter, Michael. "A Macroeconometric Analysis". In Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 79–92. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18159-7_7.

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Welfe, Władysław. "Macroeconometric Multicountry Models". In Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, 241–73. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34468-8_12.

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Bårdsen, Gunnar, e Ragnar Nymoen. "Macroeconometric Modeling for Policy". In Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, 851–916. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230244405_17.

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Welfe, Władysław. "Macroeconometric Models—The Classification". In Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, 285–302. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34468-8_15.

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Welfe, Władysław. "Prospects of Macroeconometric Modelling". In Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, 395–96. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34468-8_21.

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Welfe, Władysław. "The Dutch Macroeconometric Models". In Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, 75–84. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34468-8_6.

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Herbert, Ric D. "A Practical Macroeconometric Model". In Advances in Computational Economics, 193–210. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5583-4_7.

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Trabalhos de conferências sobre o assunto "Macroeconometric"

Ozolina, Velga, e Astra Auzina-Emsina. "Macroeconometric Input-Output Model For Transport Sector Analysis". In 35th ECMS International Conference on Modelling and Simulation. ECMS, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2021-0082.

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Effective government transport policy can be based only on realistic data, sophisticated and detailed transport sector analysis, and productive modelling. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the main elements used to develop a relatively small macro-economic input-output model with the emphasis on transport for one European Union (EU) country. Transport sector faces similar problems in various countries linked with emissions, transport flows, road accidents and other issues hence appropriate modelling tool should be selected. The model presented in this article consists of econometric and input-output relations. The research analyses and examines three scenarios and stresses the importance of the transport investment not only for development of the transport sector, but also for the economic development in general. The scenarios imply zero, 9 million and 6.7 million additional investment in transport sector eligible to the EU funding. As the result of additional investment, GDP recovers faster leading to 0.3-1.7%points faster growth rates as compared to the base scenario with no additional investment leading to faster cohesion with the average EU level, as well as higher number and turnover of passengers in the public and commercial transport, while the number of passenger cars is lower. The model can also be applied to study regional development, if it is possible to distinguish, which regions will benefit from the investment, as well as influence on fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, if the investments are targeted to specific means of transport.

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Stuzin, Gerald J. "An expert system for tuning a macroeconometric model (abstract only)". In the 15th annual conference. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/322917.323103.

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Relatórios de organizações sobre o assunto "Macroeconometric"

Hasanov, Fakhri J., Frederick L. Joutz, Jeyhun I. Mikayilov e Muhammad Javid. KGEMM: A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, fevereiro de 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.30573/ks--2020-dp04.

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Levin, Andrew, Alexei Onatski, John Williams e Noah Williams. Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, agosto de 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w11523.

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Levin, Andrew T., J. David López-Salido, Edward Nelson e Tack Yun. Macroeconometric Equivalence, Microeconomic Dissonance, and the Design of Monetary Policy. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/wp.2008.035.

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Fair, Ray. Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, dezembro de 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w2112.

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Fair, Ray. Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, fevereiro de 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w2150.

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