Literatura científica selecionada sobre o tema "Investment performance index"

This study examined the effect of foreign portfolio investment on the performance of Nigerian capital market. The specific objectives are to investigate the impact of Net Foreign Portfolio Investment, Foreign Portfolio Investment in Equity, Foreign Portfolio Investment in Bonds, Foreign Portfolio in Government Securities and Nigerian Exchange Rate per US Dollar on the performance of Nigerian Capital Market. The required data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and Stock Exchange Annual Report. The study has All Share Price Index and Market Capitalization as proxy for Capital market performance while Net Foreign Portfolio Investment (NFPI), Equity Investment (PIE), Bond Investment (PIB), Portfolio Investment in Government Securities (PIGS) and Exchange Rate as predictors variables. The Ordinary Least Square multiple regressions with econometric view were used as data analysis techniques. Cointegration test, Granger Causality Test, Augmented Dickey Fuller Test and Error Correction Model were used to examine the variables and its relationship to the dependent variables. Model one revealed that foreign portfolio investment in bonds and foreign portfolio investment in government securities have negative relationship with All Share Price Index while Net Foreign Portfolio investment, foreign portfolio investment in equities and exchange rate have positive relationship with All Share Price Index. Model two revealed that Net Foreign Portfolio Investment, Portfolio Investments in Bonds and Government securities has negative relationship with market capitalization while equity investment and exchange rate have positive relationship with market capitalization. The study concludes that foreign portfolio investment have significant relationship with Nigerian capital market performance. It therefore recommends that policies should be devised to enhance the operational efficiency of the Nigerian capital market, to attract foreign investors.

Abstract The level of sensitivity of every investment option to a market index is crucial to investors. Sensitivity analysis of individual or a set of returns on investments to market return index predicts the reaction of the investment(s) to changes in the market index; informs investors of prospective performance of different investments types; as well as assists the investors in making appropriate decisions on investment selections. This paper assessed how sensitive indirect real estate investments in Nigeria were to market index. The three companies whose asset returns were considered in this study were real estate investment trusts listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The data used in this study were sourced from annual reports of the listed companies, and reports of the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The beta coefficients were used to determine the sensitivity of the selected stocks to market return index. The study found a very low and insignificant beta coefficient among various real estate investments and market return index. Hence, there is no relationship between the market return index and the returns on the Real Estate Investment Trusts listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

The residual variance method is the traditional method for measuring portfolio diversification relative to a market index. Problems arise, however, when the market index itself is not appropriately diversified. A diversification measurement (Portfolio Diversification Index), free from market index influences, has been recently introduced. This article explores whether this index is a robust and ‘good’ diversification measure compared with the residual variance method. South African unit trusts are diversification-ranked using the two measures and the results compared to the ranking results of several risk performance measures. Measuring relative concentration levels allows concentration risk to be effectively managed, thereby filling a gap in the Basel accords (which omit concentration risk).

This paper develops “Strategy Benchmark Index (SBI)” using KOSPI200 options data from January 2004 to March 2017, and then investigates their performances. The SBIs were constructed in the same way as those published daily by CBOE. To effectively analyze the performance of these SBIs, we classified them into four types : (1) Return enhancement SBIs (six indices), (2) Volatility trading SBIs (two indices), (3) Directional trading SBIs (two indices) and (4) Other SBIs (two indices). The return enchancement SBIs include bechmark indices tracking the performance of various covered call strategies and put writing strategies, which are generally used to increase investment returns. The volatility trading SBIs include benchmark indices tracking the performance of well-known volatility trading strategies such as butterfly spread and condor. Benchmark indices tracking the performance of various types of zero-cost collar strategies are classified into the directional trading SBIs. Our empirical results are as follows. First, the risk-adjusted performances of nine SBIs of the total twelve SBIs constructed from KOSPI200 index options has been shown to be great. Second, from a portfolio perspective, some SBIs can be helpful to improve the portfolio performance of CRRA (Constant Relative Risk Aversion) investors. These results imply that passive investment strategies with KOSPI200 index options can provide additional benefits that both equities and bonds do not provide. Third, even when we use the traditional mean-variance framework other than expected utility theory to verify the economic benefit of the SBIs, our empirical results are found to be still valid. In conclusion, our results suggest that some passive investment strategies using KOSPI200 index options would be beneficial to long term investors.

The present study seeks to examine the mutual fund performance of the open-ended selected equity schemes of UTI based on multi-index measures as well as conditional multi-index measure. It is observed from the analysis that multi-index measure is able to capture the beta and alpha effects on market adjusted basis and the estimated coefficients is a better representative as compared to the single index measure. When time lagged (lagged at 1 month, 2 months, quarterly and yearly) multi-index measures are applied then the estimated coefficients (alpha & beta) which are market adjusted and time adjusted look more representative than the multi-index measure (without lagged effect). Finally, when we extended the time lagged multi-index measure on a conditional way (conditional on public information variables) then we observe that conditional multi-index lagged measure provides much more representative results in all respects as compared to the all measures after conditioning public information effects.

The present study seeks to examine the mutual fund performance of the open-ended selected equity schemes of UTI based on multi-index measures as well as conditional multi-index measure. It is observed from the analysis that multi-index measure is able to capture the beta and alpha effects on market adjusted basis and the estimated coefficients is a better representative as compared to the single index measure. When time lagged (lagged at 1 month, 2 months, quarterly and yearly) multi-index measures are applied then the estimated coefficients (alpha & beta) which are market adjusted and time adjusted look more representative than the multi-index measure (without lagged effect). Finally, when we extended the time lagged multi-index measure on a conditional way (conditional on public information variables) then we observe that conditional multi-index lagged measure provides much more representative results in all respects as compared to the all measures after conditioning public information effects.

The present study seeks to examine the mutual fund performance of the open-ended selected equity schemes of UTI based on multi-index measures as well as conditional multi-index measure. It is observed from the analysis that multi-index measure is able to capture the beta and alpha effects on market adjusted basis and the estimated coefficients is a better representative as compared to the single index measure. When time lagged (lagged at 1 month, 2 months, quarterly and yearly) multi-index measures are applied then the estimated coefficients (alpha & beta) which are market adjusted and time adjusted look more representative than the multi-index measure (without lagged effect). Finally, when we extended the time lagged multi-index measure on a conditional way (conditional on public information variables) then we observe that conditional multi-index lagged measure provides much more representative results in all respects as compared to the all measures after conditioning public information effects.

The present study seeks to examine the mutual fund performance of the open-ended selected equity schemes of UTI based on multi-index measures as well as conditional multi-index measure. It is observed from the analysis that multi-index measure is able to capture the beta and alpha effects on market adjusted basis and the estimated coefficients is a better representative as compared to the single index measure. When time lagged (lagged at 1 month, 2 months, quarterly and yearly) multi-index measures are applied then the estimated coefficients (alpha & beta) which are market adjusted and time adjusted look more representative than the multi-index measure (without lagged effect). Finally, when we extended the time lagged multi-index measure on a conditional way (conditional on public information variables) then we observe that conditional multi-index lagged measure provides much more representative results in all respects as compared to the all measures after conditioning public information effects.

Abstract Economic function of hedge funds is exactly the same as the one performed by investment funds. In both cases managers are in charge of investors’ money. Investors hope that if they withdraw their money, they will recover their contribution and fair return. The first section of the article presents the essence of hedge funds. The second section discusses measures for assessing the effects of investment policy pursued by hedge funds. The third section analyses the investment performance of hedge funds compared to S&P 500 index. The results of the analysis enabled the author to state that hedge funds achieve considerably higher rates of return regardless of market situation.

PurposeThere is a great deal of research that has been done to investigate the investment characteristics of conventional socially responsible investment portfolios compared to their broader conventional counterparts. However, the impact of incorporating sustainability criteria into the traditional Sharia screening process has not so far been investigated. Therefore, the study aims to give empirical evidence as to whether or not incorporating sustainability socially responsible criteria in the traditional Sharia screening process has a significant impact on the investment characteristics of the Islamic investment portfolio.Design/methodology/approachThe paper examines the investment characteristics of four groups of investment portfolios mainly, Dow Jones Global Index, Dow Jones Sustainability World Index, Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index and Dow Jones Islamic Market Sustainability Index. To improve the robustness of the study, the analysis was carried out at different levels. First, absolute mean return and t‐test were used to examine whether the difference between the different groups of investments is statistically significant or not. Second, risk adjusted equilibrium models, both single‐index and Fama and French multi‐index, were employed. This is to control for different risk exposure and investment style bias associated with different investment portfolios examined.FindingsThe paper finds that neither the Sharia nor the sustainability screening process seems to have an adverse impact on the performance and systematic risk of the investment portfolios compared to their unrestricted conventional counterparts. Therefore, Muslim as well as socially responsible investors can choose investments that are consistent with their value systems and beliefs without being forced to sacrifice performance or expose to higher systematic risk.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the existing literature by giving new evidence on the impact of incorporating sustainability criteria into the traditional Sharia screening process that has not so far been investigated.

This thesis is based on the analysis of all rural property sales transactions that occurred in NSW over the period 1990-2000 and is the first complete state wide analysis of a rural property market in Australia. Previous studies on rural land performance have been restricted in both limited time periods and limited location areas. The importance of rural property, as an investment asset has been recognised in the US and UK with both countries having a rural property performance index. These indices are similar in construction, quality and reliability as the commercial property, residential property and share market indices that are also available in these countries to analyse the performance of these investment assets. Until the development of the rural property capital and total return indices in this thesis, there has never been a comprehensive and complete set of rural property investment indices available to assess the risk/return performance and investment portfolio benefits of rural property in Australia. The actual construction of the indices in this thesis have been based on the current indices produced by the Property Council of Australia for office, retail, industrial and hotel property in Australia. Based on the work in this thesis, rural property investment performance can now be compared to all major investment assets available in Australia. This research will be ongoing to ensure that the performance of rural property will be available on a semi-annual basis for use by all institutions, companies and individuals with an interest in the investment potential of rural property in Australia
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Mestrado em Finanças
O índice PSI 20 é o padrão de referência por excelência da Euronext Lisboa. No entanto, os gestores de fundos portugueses que investem em ações nacionais podem não ter a possibilidade de replicar a carteira do PSI 20, devido às restrições ao investimento impostas pela regulação europeia para os mercados financeiros, nomeadamente as Diretivas UCITS. Este trabalho vai analisar até que ponto estas limitações podem ser impeditivas da performance dos fundos de investimento. É feita uma caracterização da legislação aplicável, bem como do segmento de fundos de investimento em ações nacionais que atuam no mercado nacional. Criou-se um índice alternativo ao PSI 20 para o período 2004-2011, respeitando os limites legais ao investimento, que servirá como benchmark da performance da amostra de fundos de investimento, que inclui todos os fundos em atividade durante o período completo em análise. Verificou-se que a nova série de rendimentos do mercado obtida, conquanto não sendo estatisticamente diferente do PSI 20, apresentou um retorno superior e volatilidade ligeiramente inferior. Procedeu-se à avaliação da performance utilizando indicadores clássicos. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a maior diversificação imposta pela legislação não tem necessariamente um impacto negativo sobre os retornos obtidos, e que a comparação com um índice sujeito às mesmas regras dos fundos não leva a conclusões mais favoráveis à gestão ativa. Não se encontrou qualquer prova que os gestores de fundos, enquanto grupo, consigam obter de forma consistente uma performance acima do retorno do mercado, ajustado pelo risco.
While the PSI 20 blue-chip index has been widely used as a benchmark for the Portuguese stock exchange, it may not be replicable by fund managers due to investment limits imposed in UCIT European regulation. This dissertation compares the relative performance of a set of Portuguese mutual funds against both the standard PSI 20 benchmark and a modified version which fully respects said limits. Results show that the greater diversification imposed by the legal rules does not necessarily imply a sacrifice in terms of returns, and that no evidence was found of consistent, abnormal returns by active management, when evaluated by the modified benchmark.

Diversification is one of the three most prominent elements of portfolio management with risk and return being the other two. In addition, diversification is a core objective for combining assets and is a central tenet of portfolio construction. It is also widely known that diversification is concerned with the number of unrelated sources of return and in essence the aim of diversification is to eliminate unsystematic risk from an investment portfolio while systematic risk will remain as it can not be diversified away. This study focuses on the concept of diversification in an investment portfolio setting, while specifically investigating a relatively "new" diversification measure, the Portfolio Diversification Index (PDI). The objectives of this study are twofold. First, establishing whether or not the PDI is a good diversification measure compared to the conventional/traditional and widely used residual variance method. The traditional method of measuring diversification remains inexact as this method measures portfolio diversification relative to a market index. When the market index itself is, however, poorly or not appropriately diversified it becomes problematic as the diversification measurement of the residual variance method is influenced. The PDI is a diversification measurement concept which is essentially free from the influences of the overall market index. This relatively "new" measure of diversification, the PDI, is based on the number of independent factors observed in a portfolio. These independent factors are quantified using Principal Components Analysis (PCA). In ascertaining the first objective the PDI battles "head-to-head" against the residual variance method of diversification by comparing fund ranking results of five South African unit trusts. This method of testing is used as no suitable statistical method exists. The fund ranking results of the two diversification measures are compared to a number of risk performance measures, including the Sharpe- and Sortino ratios. Extensive use is also made of the Omega ratio in this study as the Omega emerges as the dominant risk performance measure. The second objective of this study is to determine whether the PDI can be used as a tool by fund managers to assist in constructing funds (or changing the composition of existing fund) to reduce (or minimise) portfolio risk without a concomitant reduction in portfolio return. The PDI is used to determine the most independent factors of a South African unit trust where after' this fund is optimised, using the information of the independent factors, in order to reduce the risk of this fund. The Omega ratio is used to evaluate the results of the PDI while the marginal portfolio diversification concept is also investigated. A thorough literature study also presents the most relevant and important concepts and topics of the theory, management and construction of portfolios. Throughout the literature study the concept of diversification along with the topics most relevant to diversification are extensively focused and elaborated on. The method of testing used not only confirms that the PDI is a good diversification measure compared to the residual variance method, but that the PDI can also be used as a tool when constructing (or changing the composition of an existing portfolio) in order to reduce the portfolio risk without a concomitant reduction in portfolio return.
Thesis (M.Com. (Risk Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Architecture, 2007.
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Includes bibliographical references (leaf 42).
The public real estate market was initiated by the Real Estate Investment Trust Act of 1960. Since then, investors have been concerned with the assessment of performance comparisons between publicly held assets and privately held assets. The main concern for the assessment is to reveal historically which type of ownership provided the more efficient vehicle for the investors. The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) provides the investment performance of privately held commercial real estate, and the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trust (NAREIT) provides that of publicly held commercial real estate by REITs. However, direct comparison between the two indexes is problematic due to the different characteristics of each market and the lack of historical data for accurate assessment. The primary purpose of this study is to adjust characteristics of commercial REIT assets underlying one portfolio to match the characteristics of privately held commercial assets. Since SNL data base provides hedonic data from 1995 and CRSP & Compustat merged data base provides up to 2005 Q4, the sample period of this research is from 1995 Q1 to 2005 Q4. This quarterly assessment is conducted at the property sector (retail, apartment, office and industrial), then at the aggregate level. The main research of this thesis is to create adjusted REIT equity index that is derived from the following treatments in the thesis. Pure-Play' Portfolio Methodology will be applied to replicate the performance of four real estate property-type sectors defined by NCREIF - Implemented updated Equity to Total Asset ratio from De-leveraging REIT returns by WACC formula based on CRSP and Compustat merged data to obtain the value weights of equity, debt and total assets.
(cont.) As a proxy for the returns of debts held by REITs, Gilberto-Levy Historical Mortgage Rate will be used as a proxy for the returns of debts held by REITs. Sector-Mix Adjustment according to NCREIF sector weights. REIT index investment cost proxied by Vanguard REIT fund expense (95-05) will be deducted from adjusted REIT equity index. In this thesis, private real estate equity investment performance is represented by the MIT Transaction Based Index (TBI) and NCREIF Property Index (NPI). Both TBI and NPI returns are deducted by asset management fees estimated by the NFI-ODCE index (NCREIF) over the same time period. Purpose of these adjustments is to improve evaluation of publicly and privately held commercial real estate asset investment performances relative to one another. Preliminary comparison between NAREIT equity REIT index and NPI quarterly returns from 1995-2005 was conducted to collect the mean return difference. Then the difference after the treatments was compared to observe the effects of the author's method. The results demonstrate that at the aggregate level the difference between REIT and NPI returns reduced from 1.08% to 0.74%, and the difference between REIT and TBI returns reduced from 1.64% to 0.18%.
by Dongwook Kim.
S.M.in Real Estate Development

Mutual funds and pension funds are the most important investment products in Spain. Nonetheless, it should not be confused with each other, or take them as equivalent; since the latter have also the characteristic of a long-term savings product, in order to obtain additional funds for retirement. These differences may influence the investor when deciding on one of these instruments, but also the manager, developing different management strategies.Therefore, on this paper we examine the main magnitudes of both markets in Spain. Moreover, we analyze the performance of two Spanish fund samples (one with global equity mutual funds and another with global equity pension funds) with the purpose of showing if their performance is efficient, and if there are differences on their management.
Los fondos de inversión y los fondos de pensiones son los productos de inversión colectiva más importantes en España. Sin embargo, no deben confundirse entre sí ni tomarlos como equivalentes, ya que los segundos se caracterizan por ser un producto de ahorro a largo plazo cuya función es disponer de un capital adicional en el momento de la jubilación. Esta diferencia puede influir tanto en el inversor, al momento de decidirse por alguno de ellos, como en el gestor, que puede desarrollar diferentes estrategias de gestión. Por ello, en este trabajo se examinan las principales magnitudes de ambos mercados en España. Además, se analiza la eficiencia en la gestión de dos muestras de fondos españoles —una de fondos de inversión de renta variable global y otra de fondos de pensiones de renta variable—, con el objetivo de mostrar si sus gestiones son eficientes y si existen diferencias en ellas.

This master’s thesis is aimed to evaluate the effectivity of an investment project while respecting economic risks. These are the basic elements of the thesis: analysis and effectivity performance and evaluation of economic risks of an investment project. The goal as well as the outcome of the thesis is using these principles above for conducting a case study based on a real data.

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A indústria de fundos de investimento no Brasil está concentrada no segmento de renda fixa. Dos cerca de R$ 220 bilhões depositados em fundos, hoje, R$ 200 bilhões aproximadamente estão nesse segmento e R$ 20 bilhões em carteiras de renda variável. Observou-se que no primeiro semestre de 2002, os fundos de investimento em geral tiveram alguns problemas que diminuíram bastante os seus retornos. A mudança da métrica de avaliação dos fundos, da chamada Curva de Juros para a Marcação a Mercado, provocou profundas transformações em termos de mensuração de valor dos fundos de renda fixa. Neste contexto, verificou-se a performance das 17 maiores administradoras de fundos no período 1997-2003 com dados diários. O método empregado foi a Análise de Dados em Painel. A hipótese de que as administradoras de fundos nacionais privadas obtêm igual relação risco-retorno em suas carteiras do que as administradoras de fundos nacionais estatais e as administradoras de fundos estrangeiras não foi comprovada. As administradoras es
The industry of investment fund in Brazil is concentrated in the segment of fixed income. About R$ 220 billion are deposited in funds nowadays, from which R$ 200 billion approximately are in the fixed income segment and R$ 20 billion in variable income portfolios. In the first semester of 2002 it was observed that investment funds in general had substantially reduced their returns. In the wake of the change of the evaluation metrics of funds from yield curves to mark-to-market, caused profound transformation in the value of fixed income funds. In this context, the performance of the 17 biggest asset management firms in the period 1997-2000 in a daily basis has been assessed. The hypothesis that private Brazilian asset management firms have a similar risk-return performance in their portfolios as state and foreign firms has been rejected. Foreign asset management firms had a superior performance with respect to Brazilian private firms, while private firms sustained a superior performance vis-à-vis state firms

Extensive empirical evidence shows that passively managed index-tracking mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) outperform actively managed portfolios. On the other hand, there are abundant findings that stocks admitted to an index outperform those deleted from the index. This study tests an issue that has been largely ignored in academic studies but is highly related to the above two seemingly disparate areas of researches. The paper examines the long-term performance of non-index individual stocks and stock portfolios relative to the index. The study proposes that the inclusion and maintenance criteria for index component stocks are long-term performance indicators. Therefore, an index can be regarded as a passively managed and highly diversified portfolio of expected outperformers. Using a complete set of H-shares listed on HKEx for the period 2001 to 2017, the study finds that 44.25% (55.75%) of individual stocks have positive alphas (negative alphas) relative to the index. The average alpha for the family of all non-index stock is negative but statistically insignificant, i.e., 77 positive alphas and 97 negative alphas. Most alphas are statistically insignificant, but only 5 are positive, and 2 are negative at 5% significance level. From the risk and return perspective, the index dominates two-third of the non-index H-shares. Regression analyses show that H-index outperforms non-index H-shares in general and the market capitalization and turnover ratio play an important role in determining the long-term performance of H-shares, which are the major factors for the admission and maintenance criteria of H-index. The findings strongly support our conjecture that the index admission and maintenance criteria are the quality assurance of individual constituent stocks of an index. The paper provides incremental evidence on the widely documented result that index trackers outperform actively managed portfolios. Nevertheless, the study extends the recent literature on the long-term performance of stocks that are admitted to (or excluded from) an index. The findings of the study have significant implications for securities markets participants, including index providers and ETF issuers

Diese Dissertation besteht aus fünf empirischen Studien. Zwei Studien befassen sich mit passiv gemanagten Finanzprodukten. Sie untersuchen den Replikationsprozess von Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) und vergleichen hierbei die Replikationsgüte von synthetischen und physischen ETFs. Oftmals wird darauf verwiesen, dass synthetische ETFs eine höhere Replikationsgüte besitzen als physische ETFs. Dies lässt sich für Renten-ETFs bestätigen, allerdings nicht für Aktien-ETFs. Zudem wird gezeigt, dass ETFs und Indexzertifikate, die sich im direkten Wettbewerb befinden, im Hinblick auf ihre Geldmittelflüsse komplementär, allerdings nicht perfekt komplementär zueinander sind. Dieser Effekt lässt sich mithilfe der Replikationsgüte und einer Zuordnung beider Indexprodukte in verschiedene Marktnischen erklären. Weitere drei Studien befassen sich mit aktiv gemanagten Finanzprodukten. Sie widmen sich der Frage, ob mithilfe von Fondsbewertungen wie dem Feri Trust Rating, der Finanztest-Bewertung und der FondsNote die zukünftige Performance deutscher Aktienfonds prognostiziert werden kann. Hintergrund ist, dass Investoren Fondsbewertungen in ihre Anlageentscheidung einbeziehen. Sie investieren vor allem in Fonds, die eine Top-Bewertung aufweisen. Die Prognosefähigkeit von Fondsbewertungen kann sich allerdings stark voneinander unterscheiden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass mithilfe der FondsNote am besten zwischen sich zukünftig besser und schlechter entwickelnden Fonds differenziert werden kann. Die Prognosefähigkeit lässt sich durch Kombination der drei Fondsbewertungen sogar erhöhen. Dies hängt allerdings von der Kombination und dem verwendeten Performancemaß/-zeitraum ab. Zudem werden Faktoren untersucht, die einen Einfluss auf die Prognosefähigkeit haben können. Es wird gezeigt, dass qualitative Bewertungsfaktoren nicht zu einer Erhöhung der Prognosefähigkeit beitragen. Stattdessen weisen die Fondskosten und das Verhalten der Investoren einen signifikanten Einfluss auf.
This thesis consists of five empirical studies that deal with actively and passively managed financial products. The first two studies focus on the replication process of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and compare the tracking ability of ETFs based on physical replication of their benchmark indices with those of synthetic ETFs. Contrary to conventional wisdom, synthetic equity ETFs are not different in terms of tracking errors from their physical counterparts. However, synthetic fixed-income ETFs have lower tracking errors than physical fixed-income ones. Moreover, the second study examines the coexistence of ETFs and index certificates within one market by analyzing the relationship between their money flows. Evidence shows that ETFs and index certificates complement each other, but not in a perfect way. This effect can be explained by similar tracking abilities and a segmentation of investors into different market niches. The other three studies address the question if fund ratings like the Feri Trust rating, the Finanztest-Bewertung, and the FondsNote can predict the future performance of German equity mutual funds. The reason is that investors include fund ratings in their decision-making. They primarily invest in funds which have the best fund rating. However, fund rating predictability can significantly differ among fund ratings. Results indicate that the FondsNote can best distinguish between well and poorly performing funds. Predictability can be enhanced by a combination of fund ratings. However, it depends on the particular fund rating combination, the chosen performance measure, and the post-rating period. Moreover, these three studies analyze factors that could influence the predictability of fund ratings. It is shown that qualitative factors can hardly improve the predictability. By contrast, the costs of funds and the behavior of investors with regard to fund ratings significantly influence the ability to predict future performance.

Commodity investments have continued to gain traction in diversified portfolios since the 1990s. Historically low correlations relative to traditional asset classes, different fundamental drivers, and investor demand for alternative sources of return have brought commodity investments forward as a solution that provides overall portfolio diversification while maintaining similar long-term return streams. A large inflow of institutional investors and noncommercial traders has increased demand and lowered barriers to entry. Many of these investors simply want exposure to commodities as an asset class, often investing in index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In some cases, investors assume that the underlying commodity indexes that these investment vehicles track represent appropriate benchmarks asset class performance. In reality, the many different commodity indexes available make benchmarking asset class performance more difficult.

This chapter discusses the rules and regulations for the conduct of business of banks, deposit-takers, and providers of payment services. The banking and payment services conduct regime involves elements of both information regulation (an approach based on disclosure or transparency) and product regulation, in the sense of mandatory rights and obligations for the services provided. In contrast to the more highly regulated realm of retail investments, there is no attempt at advice regulation, albeit the Financial Services Authority has indicated that it is considering whether it should make further provision for advice on deposits, and in particular structured deposits (where the interest or return is dependent on the performance of an underlying index/indices, stock(s) or commodity/commodities).

It is important for distance learning institutions to be well prepared before designing and implementing any new technology based learning system to justify the investment and minimize failure risk. It can be achieved by systematically assessing the readiness of all stakeholders. This paper first proposes an m-readiness assessment process and subsequently describes different activities required to develop a m-readiness assessment model. The model was validated and applied to measure m-readiness index of Allama Iqbal Open University (AIOU), Pakistan. Primary data (N=612) were collected. Factor analysis was applied. Extracted factors were confirmed with confirmatory factor analysis. Based on the extracted factors, m-readiness index was calculated. Furthermore, m-readiness index association with age, gender, program of study, income, locality and province were also analyzed by applying one way ANOVA and Kruskal Wallis. The results reveal that there is a significant difference in m-readiness with respect to income, locality, age, gender, program of study and province.

The recent global financial crisis is viewed as a glaring example of limitless pursuit of deregulation of financial markets and failure of global corporate governance. Though the global economic slowdown had its epicenter in the US but its impact is being witnessed in all major economies of the world. The present chapter seeks to analyze the post crisis experience of the Indian economy as compared to the global economic performances, using various macroeconomic indicators as output, employment, inflation, current account balance, movement in real effective exchange rate and inflow of FDI. It is based on a statistical analysis using secondary time-series data and is based on the Exogenous Structural Break Model developed by Perron (1989). Finally it tries to highlight the confidence of the economic agents based on some well recognized confidence indices (for e.g. Business Confidence Index, Consumer Confidence Index, FDI Confidence Index etc.) during the post-crisis period.

Asthma treatment provided by a pressurized Metered Dose Inhaler (MDI) coupled to a Valved Holding Chamber (VHC), in cases of children younger than 5 years old, is a standard well-stablished in the medical community. The lack of experimental studies for comparison of several commercial VHC alternatives is the main goal of this study. The VHC device needs to be evaluated in terms of Fine Particle Mass (FPM) emitted and Performance. Such assessment was made based on a cascade impaction methodology (i.e. Multi-Stage Liquid Impinger - MSLI) at 30 ± 5 L/min. This impactor apparatus is composed by five stage of impaction, where the spray particle size distribution is collected by ranges of aerodynamic diameter, from coarse to fine particles. This evaluation was executed for 8 VHC devices: Aerochamber Plus®, A2A Spacer®, Compact Space Chamber Plus®, Space Chamber Plus®, Nebuchamber®, Vortex®, OptiChamber Diamond® and Volumatic®. The Ventolin® (salbutamol sulphate 100 μg/dose) was the chosen MDI device, due to its widely prescription and acceptance. Drug mass per stage was quantified by UV-Vis Spectrometry, through washing solutions of NaOH 0.01M. Results show clear distinction between the use of MDI alone or coupled with any VHC. Its Emitted Dose (ED) is higher when coupled to a VHC, although the FPM emitted is not different. In other hand the use of VHC provides a reduction from 82.7% to 95.3% of the Throat deposition in comparison to MDI alone. Results point the Aerochamber, Volumatic and Nebuchamber as the highest FPM emitters (27.5 ± 2.4 μg, 27.3 ± 2.7 μg, 26.5 ± 1.8 μg) and with high performance indexes (5.3 ± 0.1, 6.6 ± 1.3, 5.0 ± 0.4). A complete device characteristics analysis is provided, showing that Throat deposition is highly related to the valve design. The Leaflet design (≈5.0 μg) has lower throat deposition than Duck type (≈9.5 μg). A Handling and Attractiveness index is calculated and plotted against the Performance index divided by the device cost. This analysis shows that Volumatic is the best investment (1.73 ± 0.34 £−1) for home / hospital use (2.0 g−1·m−3), while the Aerochamber shows the best portability (53.2 g−1·m−3) and a reasonable investment (1.10 ± 0.02 £−1).

Data of the worker’s remittance flow in the period of 2000-2010 were employed to analyze the impact of remittances on macroeconomic indicators of the Kyrgyz Republic. Focus was given to the assessment of remittance effect on economic effectiveness. To study the underlying issue, linear correlation method and economic performance effectiveness index were used. Results showed that great portion of remittances has been directed into consumption rather than to investment. Moreover, remittance spending is channeled into consumption of imported goods, thus raising the trade deficit of a country. Their impact on economic effectiveness of Kyrgyzstan presents that given the low propensity to invest, they finance consumption and cause high consumption ratio with respect to investment ratio, thus leading to reduction of economic effectiveness.

Abstract The ultimate goal of oilfield development is to maximize the investment benefits. The reservoir performance prediction is directly related to oilfield investment and management. The traditional strategy based on numerical simulation has been widely used with the disadvantages of long run time and much information needed. It is necessary to form a fast and convenient method for the oil production prediction, especially for layered reservoir. A new method is proposed to predict the development indexes of multi-layer reservoirs based on the injection-production data. The new method maintains the objectivity of the data and demonstrates the superiority of the intelligent algorithm. The layered reservoir is regarded as a series of single layer reservoirs on the vertical direction. Considering the starting pressure gradient of non-Newtonian fluid flow and the variation of water content in the oil production index, the injection-production response model for single-layer reservoirs is established. Based on that, a composite model for the multi-layer reservoir is established. For model solution, particle swarm optimization is applied for optimization of the new model. A heterogeneous multi-layer model was established for validation of the new method. The results obtained from the new proposed model are in consistent with the numerical simulation results. It saves a lot of computing time with the incorporation of the artificial intelligence methods. It showed that this technique is valid and effective to predict oil performance in layered reservoir. These examples showed that the application of big data and artificial intelligence method is of great significance, which not only shortens the working time, but also obtains relatively higher accuracy. Based on the objective data of the oil field and the artificial intelligence algorithm, the prediction of oil field development data can be realized. This technique has been used in nearly 100 wells of Bohai oilfields. The results showed in this paper reveals that it is possible to estimate the production performance of the water flooding reservoirs.

This paper presents a thermo-economic analysis of an intercooled, reheat (ICRH) gas turbine, with and without recuperation, for cogeneration applications. The optimization analyses of thermodynamic parameters have permitted to calculate variables, such as low-pressure compressor pressure ratio, high-pressure turbine pressure ratio and gas temperature at the waste heat recovery unit inlet while maximizing electric efficiency and “Energy Saving Index”. Subsequently, the economic analyses have allowed to evaluate return on the investment, and the minimum value of gross payout period, for the cycle configurations of highest thermodynamic performance. In the present study three sizes (100 MW, 20 MW and 5 MW) of gas turbines have been examined. The performed investigation reveals that the maximum value of electric efficiency and “Energy Saving Index” is achieved for a large size (100 MW) recuperated ICRH gas turbine based cogeneration system. However, a non-recuperated ICRH gas turbine (of 100 MW) based cogeneration system provides maximum value of return on the investment and the minimum value of gross payout period compared to the other gas turbine cycles, of the same size and with same power to heat ratio, investigated in the present study. A comprehensive thermo-economic analysis methodology, presented in this paper, should provide useful guidelines for preliminary sizing and selection of gas turbine cycle for cogeneration applications.

International funds flow freely across the countries both quantitatively and legally as a result of financial liberalization carried out by globalization process and huge amount of money flows into the countries in liberal system. Particularly for developing countries, these fund flows refer as hot money are mentioned frequently with respect of positive and negative signs. High export performance of the Netherlands as a result of discovering large natural gas reserve leads to increase rapidly its own currency. In 1959 when economic indicators getting worse, the reason of crisis appears as decreasing export in consequence of over-valued currency leads to decrease the industrial production. This paradoxical situation is named as “Dutch Disease” in economics literature. The purpose of this study is examining the effect of hot money inflow on the manufacturing sector of Turkey and testing Dutch disease for Turkish economy. In this paper, the monthly data 2006:01-2013:12 from Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is used. Test results of causality tests that Toda-Yamamoto method (1995) and Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap method approve that there is no causality between portfolio investment and manufacturing industrial production index and also export. The results confirm that portfolio investments do not lead to Dutch disease for Turkey.

Nowadays, more and more pipeline operators vigorously promote the implementation of integrity management programs (IMPs for short) in order to improve the integrity of their pipeline systems. But how can the operators measure the performance of their pipeline IMPs? In other words, how can the operators evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of their programs so as to make continuous improvement? The regulations and standards of pipeline integrity management just gave some requirements and recommendations on performance measurement, but no specific methods were presented. Normally, the pipeline operators measured the performance of IMPs on the base of their management objectives and local regulations’ requirements. The paper introduced the methodology and achievements of pipeline integrity management performance evaluation work conducted in PetroChina Pipeline Company. Considering the company’s specific integrity management goals and objectives, the metrics were established and applied to evaluate whether those goals had been achieved or not, and found out the shortage of the IMP for giving suggestions for improvement. Considering the input and output parameters of IMP, the performance measures system was set up. The input parameters included the input of workforce, facilities and other investments. The output parameters indicated the output of IMP, such as the accomplishment of the objectives, the quality of the work and the safety improvement through IMP. In order to clearly define the input and output parameters of IMP, the IMP was divided into nine parts, such as data management, high consequences areas identification, risk assessment, integrity assessment, corrosion prevention, defect repair, geo-hazards control, pipeline patrol, pipeline security. For each part, considering the management objectives, the “input-output” parameters metrics were set to measure the performance. In order to see the performance of IMP from a macroscopic perspective, a simplified index system was built which mainly focused on the safety improvement such as the number of leakage, failures, accidents and economic loss. The grading performance evaluation system could conveniently meet the different focus of different levels managers. In addition, in order to eliminate the influence of the different management difficulties to the performance of IMP, the paper built a set of adjustment factors to modify the investment parameters to make sure the evaluation results more objective and fair. At last, the paper showed the application results of the IMP performance evaluation conducted in PetroChina Pipeline Company and its branches.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.