Literatura científica selecionada sobre o tema "Ice cream"

A survey of unopened ice cream, ice cream in use, and ice-cream-scoop water (n=91) was conducted to determine the effect of scoop water hygiene on the microbiological quality of ice cream. An aerobic plate count around 106 c.f.u. ml−1 was the modal value for scoop waters. Unopened ice creams generally had counts around 103–104 c.f.u. ml−1 and this increased by one order of magnitude when in use. Many scoop waters had low coliform counts, but almost half contained >100 c.f.u. ml−1. E. coli was isolated in 18% of ice creams in use, and in 10% of unopened ice creams. S. aureus was not detected in any sample. Statistical analysis showed strong associations between indicator organisms and increased counts in ice cream in use. EC guidelines for indicator organisms in ice cream were exceeded by up to 56% of samples.

There has been a challenge in overcoming the bitter aftertaste of stevia, a natural non-caloric sweetener. Recent research focuses on investigating various types of steviol glycosides, the sweet compounds in stevia leaves, as they exhibit different sensory characteristics. This study determined the sensory properties and acceptability of ice cream sweetened solely with three steviol glycosides, rebaudioside (Reb) A, D, and M (0.09% w/v), using sucrose-sweetened ice cream as a control (14% w/v). Ice cream consumers (n = 92) rated their overall liking, attribute liking, and sweetness and bitterness intensities and described the aftertastes of each sample using check-all-that-apply. The liking scores of Reb D- and M-sweetened ice creams were significantly higher than those of Reb A-sweetened ice cream. Among the three glycosides, only Reb M showed a sweetness intensity comparable with that of sucrose. Consumers perceived the aftertastes of Reb D and M ice creams as being more sweet, pleasant, creamy, and milky, while Reb A was more artificial and chemical. Reb D and M ice creams were also plotted close to sucrose in the correspondence analysis graph, meaning that their aftertaste characteristics were similar to those of sucrose. The present study clearly highlights that Reb D and M have better tastes and provide better perceptions to consumers than Reb A, which is the most widely used glycoside in food industry.

Red palm olein (RPOL) is rich in nutritional and antioxidant compounds including carotenoids, tocopherols, and tocotrienols which makes it beneficial in food applications. However, to maintain the colloidal stability of RPOL in ice cream is challenging. Therefore, this study was carried out to formulate value-added ice creams supplemented with RPOL (0.1-5.0% w/w) in combination with guar gum (GG; 0.0-0.4% w/w) or xanthan gum (XG; 0.0-0.4% w/w) as stabilizers. Physical properties and sensory acceptance of these ice creams were determined in comparison with selected commercial ice cream samples (CM-ice creams). Ice cream with 0.1% RPOL and 0.4% guar gum resembled CM-ice creams in terms of viscosity (9.08±0.05 Pa.s.), hardness (3.59±3.12 kg), and amount of melted ice cream/30 min (62.00±2.83%). Meanwhile, ice cream with 0.1% RPOL and 0.4% xanthan gum was similar with CM-ice creams in their viscosity (9.19±0.04 Pa.s.) and hardness (0.60±0.25 kg), yet was relatively lower in the amount of melted ice cream/30 min (33.46±5.06%). All ice creams appeared red and yellow due to the presence of RPOL, and the colour intensity was enhanced with the presence of the stabilizers. The RPOL-based ice creams displayed lower score in sensory properties than those of CM-ice creams, thus highlighted the necessary attributes that need to be improved in future studies.

Abstract In this study, cow (W)’s milk was replaced by soy (S), coconut (C) and various combinations of coconut or cow milks with soy milk in order to produce fermented probiotic ice cream. The changes in ice cream eating qualities and physical properties were evaluated. Fermented ice cream containing vegetable milks showed a slower melting rate and higher apparent viscosity and particle size and also lower total acceptability than fermented cow milk ice cream (control). Ice creams containing Lactobacillus acidophilus (La-05; L) showed a lower melting rate and higher apparent viscosity and particle size than ice creams containing Bifidobacterium bifidum (Bb-12; B). Regardless of the starter culture used, all of sensory analysis scores decreased in ice creams with higher soy milk amount. The vegetable milks may offer ice cream manufacturers an alternative source of cow milk as a functional ice cream.

The effects of citrus fibre on the physical, chemical and sensory properties of ice cream were evaluated. Three types of ice creams were compared; ice creams with stabiliser/emulsifier (0.4%, 0.8% and 1.2%), ice creams with citrus fibre (0.4%, 0.8% and 1.2%) and ice creams with 0.4% stabiliser/emulsifier and citrus fibre (0.4%, 0.8% and 1.2%). Citrus fibre as a single stabiliser could not improve the viscosity, overrun and sensory properties of ice cream samples, but had a positive effect on the melting resistance. A combination of citrus fibre and stabiliser/emulsifier produced desirable ice cream properties.

The microbiological quality of the final product and the safety of the production procedures were screened in an ice cream factory, after implementation of a Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP) system. We analysed 30 vanilla (IC1), 30 strawberry (IC2), and 30 chocolate flavoured (IC3) samples of ice cream; 30 of water; 90 of personnel’s hands flora; 150 of plastic ice cream containers flora; 50 of sanitised equipment-surfaces flora. After HACCP introduction, Staphylococcus aureus was not further detectable in ice cream and Escherichia coli was mostly less than 10 CFU/g, while the spoilage markers (total coliforms – TC, aerobic plate counts – APC) in ice cream and the environment were reduced by 20–35%. Mean log CFU/g, for IC1: TC from 2.20 reduced to 1.57, APC from 4.58 reduced to 3.62. For IC2: TC from 2.29 reduced to 1.65, APC from 4.61 reduced to 3.49. For IC3: TC from 2.67 reduced to 1.76, APC from 5.08 reduced to 3.81.

Enrichment of food by the addition of essential micro-nutrients like trace elements and vitamins to food is known as fortification. It can be carried out under initiatives such as Public Health Policy which aims in reducing the number of people with dietary deficiencies within a group of people or population. Ice-creams are well known dessert, and very much in demand among the children. So it is very important to keep its sensory factors in mind and make nutritive additions in it. To meet the demands of the consumers various natural ingredients are used to fortify ice-creams. Works have been done on combining ice-cream with biologically active molecules and produce functionally potential products. There are reports of making natural anti-oxidant ice-cream, experimenting it with cocoa powder, hazelnut, green-tea and ginger extract. Ice-cream fortification with fish-protein powder has turned to be effective in enhancing food value, but studies on its stability during storage and consumer acceptance are highly recommended. Researchers worked on incorporating dietary fibers in ice-cream like wheat, oats, bamboo, apple and orange. Its influence was checked on the basis of rheological, textural, sensory properties and probiotic culture survival of the ice-cream, to enhance the structural characteristics and cultural viability. Addition of Inulin in ice-creams as fat-replacers increased the viscosity and also made it resistant to melting. Hydrocolloids bind water and oil and adding them in ice-creams enhanced the micro-viscosity. Ice-creams were fortified with vitamins and minerals with successful attempts for example Vitamin D3, calcium and zinc fortifications. This study aims to review the various fortifications of ice-cream till date, using different nutritional components, hence fulfilling the nutritional needs of human-beings.

Mestrado em Engenharia Alimentar - Instituto Superior de Agronomia
It is becoming more urgent for producers to design new products that follow the consumer’s trends and expectations, such as, “low fat”, “no sugars” or “low calorie” products, while maintaining the ice cream features. The aim of this thesis was to develop a computer aided-tool, based on a mathematical model that helps to design ice cream recipes. By combining different expertise information, a linear programming model has been developed with the objective of minimizing the recipes calorie content. It compiles information about ingredients that are commonly used in ice cream manufacture and their contribution to nutrient and processing constraints. After setting all requirement constraints for each specific ice cream, the Excel Solver optimization tool, gives a solution for the model establishing the ingredients and their quantities to be included in the recipe. The developed model can be easily updated to account for changes in market demands or production conditions. It was created a version of the model for each one of the following ice cream types: water ice, ice cream, milk ice, dairy ice, sorbet and artisanal recipe. In order to test the effectiveness of the model, seven innovative recipes, using Portuguese ingredients with healthy benefits, have been created and tested at DuPont, Denmark.

I set out to make a lighthearted comedy punctuated with some scary moments. I wanted this story to come from a seven-year-old girl's point of view and match fantastic visuals with equally fantastic sounds. I will discuss the entire creative process in this book such as preproduction, writing, direction, cinematography, editing, and the sound design process, as well as many of my own personal experiences on this set and in my life. I have included the influence of unbiased audience members to determine whether or not I was successful in making a competent movie. This entire process, including all of the work done, rests entirely on my audience. I have done my best to include both people who are affluent in film production, as well as those who are not.

Over recent decades, the push in consumer trends towards the production of clean label, functionalised foods has resulted in food manufacturers looking towards plant fibres as a source of alternative stabilisers. Not only can plant fibres be considered as sustainable ingredients but they are also able to, due to the functional properties that they possess, allow the food manufacturer to meet the functional foods demand. Plant fibres were assessed as an alternative source of ice cream stabilisers. Firstly, a selection of plant fibres of different plant origin where characterised and their functional properties in suspension were determined to identify which plant fibres provided the most potential as ice cream stabilisers. These fibres were then incorporated into ice cream formulations and it was found that their addition had no impact on the correct microstructure formation. Heat shock is the process whereby ice cream is stored in inappropriate temperature conditions or experiences breaks in the frozen-chain. Such drastic changes in temperature can alter the microstructure of ice cream reducing the sensory quality. Hydrocolloids are added to ice cream formulations to prevent such sensory deteriorations and for plant fibres to be a suitable source of alternative stabilisers they too must be able to prevent such deteriorations. It was found that the ability to control ice recrystallisation was dependent on the water binding capacity of the fibre, which in turn was related to the total fibre content. However, under heat shock conditions, this ability to control the rate of ice recrystallisation was largely dependent on the freeze-thaw stability of the fibre. It was found, in comparison to a hydrocolloid stabilised sample, that plant fibres have no impact on the rate of ice cream meltdown, nor the final mass loss, but could inhibit the time to first drip due to the ability of plant fibres to behave as ‘sponges’, absorbing the water from melting ice and hindering the rate of drainage by the formation of a fibrous network with the matrix phase. Higher apparent viscosities were also associated with improved meltdown properties. However, when plant fibres were co-stabilised with guar gum at the concentrations studied, improvements in the meltdown properties and control over microstructural deteriorations were observed but samples became undesirably over texturised. Sensory analysis was performed to determine the impact of plant fibres on the sensory perception of ice cream as well as the ability of plant fibres to retain sensory quality under heat shock conditions. It was found that plant fibres impart a powdery and mouth drying sensation due to the presence of insoluble fibre particles. Plant fibres of a high enough total fibre content were also found to be able to impart the correct mouthfeel properties in ice cream. Under heat shock conditions, it was found that the more freeze-thaw stable fibres were able to control increases in the iciness perception. However, plant fibres were not found to be able to control the sensory changes that are related to the structure of air, as cryo-Scanning Electron Microscopy imaging identified that plant fibres behave as anti-foams in ice cream formulations under temperature cycling conditions.

Consumers have a variety of ice cream available for purchase through retail stores, including: standard commercial, specialty store, organic, and premium commercial options. This study used a sensory analysis to solicit responses from a group of adults to determine consumer preference and acceptance of four vanilla ice creams based on taste. Consumers preferred (i) organic ice cream to standard, commercial ice cream and (ii) specialty store ice cream to standard, commercial ice cream. Additionally, consumers could identify (i) the organic ice cream when compared to the standard, commercial ice cream and (ii) the premium, commercial ice cream had more overrun than the standard, commercial ice cream. Despite the preference for organic ice cream, it was unable to be determined if consumers were willing to pay a higher price for perceived higher quality organic ice cream. This research was unable to determine if organic ice creams offer additional nutritional benefits as compared to non-organic ice cream, but nutritional analysis was performed, and further research is warranted.

Newsvendor problems in Operations Research predict the optimal inventory levels necessary to meet uncertain demands. This thesis examines an extended version of a single period multi-product newsvendor problem known as the ice cream vendor problem. In the ice cream vendor problem, there are two products – ice cream and hot chocolate – which may be substituted for one another if the outside temperature is no too hot or not too cold. In particular, the ice cream vendor problem is a data-driven extension of the conventional newsvendor problem which does not require the assumption of a specific demand distribution, thus allowing the demand for ice cream and hot chocolate respectively to be temperature dependent. Using Discrete Event Simulation, we first simulate a real-world scenario of an ice cream vendor problem via a demand whose expected value is a function of temperature. A sample average approximation technique is subsequently used to transform the stochastic newsvendor program into a feature-driven linear program based on the exogenous factors of probability of rainfall and temperature. The resulting problem is a multi-product newsvendor linear program with L1-regularization. The solution to this problem yields the expected cost to the ice cream vendor as well as the optimal order quantities for ice cream and hot chocolate, respectively.

The focus of this work was to design, develop and implement an automatic scoop system for an ice-cream shop. The main contribution covers programming of PLC and Arduino, LabVIEW, mechanical structure design of scoop, assembly line, timing belt and robotics arm and stress analysis of the structures in the system. This work solved the problem that the scooping ice-cream shop employees need to be supported by technology in their hard work and to improve the efficiency of the ice-cream disposal. The scoop is designed as a new type solving the stress issue. The control system was programmed to use robotics arm to scoop ice-cream, which enhanced the work efficiency. stress and modal analysis was done for ensure the safety of the system. Testing and validation of the system was carried out and results show it worked properly.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 62-64).
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2006.
(cont.) Carbon dioxide is recompressed from 1.97 x 106 Pa (285 psi) to 3.96 x 106 Pa (575 psi). The process is scaled by increasing the number of nozzles to accommodate the desired flow rate. Only 165 nozzles are required to flash freeze the ice cream mix at a 2000 L/hr ice cream production rate. The power consumption of a continuous cycle implementation is modeled including single or double stage carbon dioxide recovery and compression, pre-cooling of the carbon dioxide by a standard condensing unit, pumping of the ice cream mix at high pressure and extrusion of the ice cream powder by a piston or screw extruder. The power consumption of an implementation recovering 95% of the carbon dioxide is approximately 37.3% of the power consumption of a conventional process. The cost of the make-up carbon dioxide is $0.002 per liter of ice cream. A cart implementation is also possible.
Ice cream mix and other liquids are frozen by direct contact with carbon dioxide while carbon dioxide is throttled from a liquid phase to a saturated vapor phase. The process is demonstrated with a proof-of-principle apparatus that freezes discrete batches of mix. The fluid consumption, power consumption and space requirement of a continuous cycle implementation are modeled. In the proof-of-principle apparatus and the continuous cycle model, the ice cream mix is sprayed into the liquid carbon dioxide using 1.0 GPH Delavan fuel nozzles; the combined fluid is throttled by 2.0 GPH Delavan fuel nozzles, forming a fine mist during flash-freezing. The pressure at the outlet of the throttle determines the temperature of the saturated carbon dioxide vapor after the flashing process. The resulting product is a frozen carbonated ice cream powder. Depending on the implementation, 50-99% of the carbon dioxide flow is vented and can be compressed and recycled with additional make-up carbon dioxide flow. The required ratio of carbon dioxide to ice cream mix is found by balancing the change in enthalpy of each liquid from the inlet to the outlet state. For ice cream mix frozen from 5°C to -200C, the ratio is shown to be about 1.1.
by Teresa Susan Baker.
S.M.

Freezing is the single most influential step of ice cream manufacturing. During freezing, multiphase flow, ice crystal nucleation and growth, phase change, and viscous shearing all play roles in ice cream crystallization. In this work, ice crystallization of a sucrose solution is investigated using a coupled computational fluid dynamics and population balance method. The dynamic freezing process that takes place in a scraped surface heat exchanger (SSHE) is simulated using a sucrose solution as a model material. Ice crystal nucleation and growth kinetics are described by population balance equations. Effects of multiphase, phase change, and shearing from scraping in a continuous freezer on ice cream formation are investigated, and the fluid flow, temperature distribution and ice crystal size are predicted. The method predicts trends similar to experimental observations, and provides insight into how processing conditions affect ice cream manufacturing.

This influence of video clips varying arousal and valence on the affective states and perception of chocolate ice cream have been investigated. Consuming ice cream while watching video with positive valence, high arousal or low arousal resulted in more positive emotions compared to silent conditions. The perception of sweetness, milky and creamy were cited more when watching low arousal and high valence clips. Bitterness and roasted flavours were cited more under high arousal video conditions. Videos varying in valence and arousal are associated with different emotions that can in turn influence ice cream flavour perception. These findings highlight the influence of auditory cues on sensory perception and emotions during food consumption.

The food industry is a large consumer of energy that depends on fossil fuels, the combustion of which releases large amounts of CO2. The paper examines the possibility of reducing the use of non – renewable energy sources through a detailed energy audit and consideration of measures to increase energy efficiency and renewable energy sources in the ice cream craft industry. The cost-effectiveness of the proposed measures is observed for two scenarios. The first scenario covers the current situation in Serbia, in which there are no carbon taxes, and the price of energy is relatively low compared to other countries in Europe. The second „German scenario“ implies carbon taxes in the amount of 55€/tCO2, which is expected to, with the same energy prices, significantly reduce the repayment period and affect the ranking of measures. The analysis is performed to consider how the carbon tax reflects on the motivation of craft producers to improve energy efficiency.

The aim of this research was to evaluate the microbiological quality of ice cream sold at catering facilities-restaurants, cake shops and bakeries on the territory of Belgrade. The material consisted of 40 samples of ice cream collected during monitoring in 2021 and 2022. Microbiological analyses were carried out according to the Rulebook on General and Special Conditions of Food Hygiene at any Stage of Production, Processing and Trade („Official Gazette of the RS„, No. 72/2010, 62/2018). ISO standard methods for detection of microorganisms in ice cream samples were applied. Out of 40 samples, all were in accordance to the safety criteria, as Salmonella spp. were not detected in any of tested samples. Four samples (10%) did not meet the hygiene criteria in production processas more than 100 CFU/g Enterobacteriaceae were detected. Out of 4 samples, one sample of ice cream was produced in the small craft facility and 3 samples were from mobile ice cream vending machines. It can be concluded that examined samples of ice cream from catering facilities in the area of ​​Belgrade were safe for consuption, since they met the safety criteria prescribed by the applicable legislative. The improvement of hygienic measures during the production process of ice cream in small craft fecilities and vendom mobile mashines was ordered.

An application was submitted to the Food Standards Agency (FSA) and Food Standards Scotland (FSS) in April 2021 from Bioneutra Incorporated, North America (“the applicant”) for the authorisation of the proposed extension of use of isomalto-oligosaccharides (IMOs) as a novel food. The novel food are IMOs which are intended to be used as a food ingredient and as an ingredient in food supplements. IMOs are manufactured by the enzyme hydrolysis of starch which is sourced from different plant crops (e.g., cereals, legumes, and roots). IMOs are currently authorised as a novel food in the UK (assimilated Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/2470). This new application is an extension of the intended uses of IMOs, seeking to use the novel food within the food categories: ice cream and dairy desserts, instant coffee and tea, table-top sweeteners, cakes, muffins, pies, pastries, breakfast cereals, condiments/relishes, gravies and sauces, gelatines, puddings, fillings, jams and jellies, yoghurts, milk-based drinks, snack foods, and sweet sauces, toppings and syrups, and as an ingredient in food supplements. To support the FSA and FSS in their evaluation of the application, the Advisory Committee on Novel Foods and Processes (ACNFP) were asked to review the safety dossier and supplementary information provided by the applicant. Please note the Committee did not consider any potential health benefits or claims arising from consuming the food, as the focus of the novel food assessment is to ensure the extension of use of the food is safe, and not putting consumers at a nutritional disadvantage. The FSA and FSS concluded that the applicant had provided sufficient information to assure the proposed extension of use for IMOs, was safe under the proposed conditions of use. The anticipated intake levels and the proposed use in foods was not considered to be nutritionally disadvantageous.

En Colombia, las colectas de especies con potencial agrícola iniciaron en el año 1942 con el fin de crear colecciones de trabajo para que los mejoradores del país pudieran hacer nuevos cruzamientos y crear nuevas variedades. Posteriormente, entre 1962 hasta 1994, estas colecciones fueron administradas por el ICA. En 1994, se funda la Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (Corpoica, ahora AGROSAVIA) con funciones de investigación separadas del ICA. A partir de ese momento, se establece el Sistema Nacional de Bancos de Germoplasma de la Nación Colombiana (SNBGNC) animal y vegetal utilizando como base las colecciones de trabajo.

En el transcurso del primer semestre de 2023 la economía colombiana continuó avanzando en el proceso de ajuste requerido para corregir los desequilibrios macroeconómicos y controlar las presiones inflacionarias acumuladas tras los diversos choques de oferta y la rápida expansión de la demanda durante 2021 y 2022, la cual superó el crecimiento potencial de la economía. El ajuste económico en curso ha sido posible gracias a la moderación del crecimiento de la demanda interna y a la progresiva disolución de los choques de oferta que elevaron los costos de producción. La demanda interna comenzó a desacelerase en los últimos meses de 2022 y se contrajo un -0,2 % en el primer trimestre de este año, debido al menor crecimiento del consumo de los hogares y a la caída de la formación bruta de capital. Por su parte, los menores precios internacionales de las materias primas, la paulatina normalización de las cadenas de suministro y la apreciación de la tasa de cambio han contribuido a disipar los choques de oferta, lo cual se ha reflejado en una disminución de la inflación anual de precios al productor desde un nivel del 19,2 % a finales de 2022 al 4,7 % en junio de 2023 1. El menor dinamismo de la demanda interna se ha venido reflejando en una desaceleración progresiva de la actividad económica. Es así como en el primer trimestre de 2023 el PIB registró un crecimiento anual del 3,0 %, ritmo equivalente a una tercera parte del crecimiento promedio anual que se observó durante los tres primeros trimestres de 2022 (9,1 %). Según el indicador de seguimiento de la economía (ISE) que elabora el DANE, esta pérdida de dinamismo continuó en abril y mayo, al registrarse variaciones de ese indicador del -0,8 % y 0,6 %, respectivamente, frente a los mismos meses de 2022. Estos resultados fueron inferiores a lo observado en marzo (1,4 %), en la serie del ISE ajustada por efecto estacional y calendario. Ello apunta a que el crecimiento del PIB seguirá declinando en el segundo trimestre, lo cual es coherente con el pronóstico de crecimiento del PIB ligeramente inferior al 1,0 % para 2023 elaborado por el equipo técnico. A pesar de la desaceleración económica en curso, el mercado laboral sigue mostrando fortaleza, como se deduce del continuo descenso de la tasa de desempleo en el agregado nacional hasta el trimestre móvil terminado en mayo (10,4 %), su valor más bajo desde el inicio de la pandemia del covid-19 2. La desaceleración de la actividad económica es un fenómeno que se anticipaba, en parte, como resultado de la política monetaria restrictiva que adoptó el Banco de la República para controlar las presiones inflacionarias. A la menor actividad económica también estaría contribuyendo una política fiscal menos expansionista que en 2022, según se contempla en los pronósticos presentados en el Marco Fiscal de Mediano Plazo de 2023 (MFMP-23). A esto se añadió una desaceleración de la demanda externa relevante para el país debido al menor crecimiento de los socios comerciales, en un contexto internacional de altas tasas de interés de política monetaria, tasas de inflación por encima de sus metas y elevada incertidumbre generada por la prolongación de la invasión de Rusia a Ucrania. La Junta Directiva del Banco de la República (JDBR) ha sido reiterativa en sus diversas comunicaciones sobre la necesidad de adelantar este proceso de ajuste, para lograr el retorno gradual de la inflación a la meta del 3 %, corregir los desequilibrios macroeconómicos y asegurar la sostenibilidad del crecimiento económico en el largo plazo. La responsabilidad constitucional que recae sobre el Banco de la República, sobre la cual se hizo énfasis en el pasado Informe al Congreso, exige mantener una inflación baja y estable en consonancia con la política económica en general, de manera que permita apoyar un crecimiento económico sostenible y un balance externo financiable. Las decisiones de política monetaria se han adoptado con el respaldo de la sólida base institucional y técnica que soporta el esquema de inflación objetivo, cimentada en la experiencia acumulada durante más de dos décadas por el banco central. Los motivos específicos que ha tenido la JDBR para emprender un proceso de ajuste monetario, el más fuerte desde que el Banco de la República adoptó la estrategia de inflación objetivo, han sido complejos y de diversa índole. Las presiones inflacionarias provinieron inicialmente de choques de oferta de origen externo e interno que presionaron al alza los costos y precios de los alimentos y otros productos de consumo, a las cuales se agregaron presiones de origen cambiario. Estos choques llevaron a un incremento de las expectativas de inflación, lo cual desató un proceso de indexación de precios, que se exacerbó debido a los excesos de demanda que surgieron en 2022. La respuesta de la política monetaria mediante el incremento de las tasas de interés buscaba reducir los excesos de demanda, contener el aumento de las expectativas y limitar los efectos de la indexación de precios. Todo ello crea las condiciones propicias para permitir que, a medida que los choques de oferta cedan y se alivien, y con ello las presiones de costos, la inflación empiece a reducirse. Este es un proceso que se cumple con cierto rezago, pero que, dado el tiempo que la política monetaria lleva actuando, ya se ha empezado a producir, como lo mostró la reciente disminución de la tasa de inflación y la revisión a la baja de sus expectativas a diferentes plazos. Acorde con el mandato constitucional de asegurar una coordinación de la política monetaria con la política económica general, además de mitigar las presiones inflacionarias, el ajuste monetario viene cumpliendo el propósito de corregir los desequilibrios macroeconómicos que ponen en riesgo la estabilidad de la economía colombiana. Al respecto, no cabe duda de que el crecimiento del PIB del 7,3 % en 2022 fue sobresaliente, al haber más que duplicado el crecimiento mundial (3,5 %) y superado ampliamente la expansión de América Latina y el Caribe (3,9 %), según cifras del FMI. Un dinamismo económico tan elevado trae importantes ganancias de bienestar, en particular cuando permite reducir las tasas de desempleo, como ha venido ocurriendo en Colombia; sin embargo, es un crecimiento insostenible en tanto se fundamenta en una situación fiscal ampliamente deficitaria y en un preocupante incremento en el endeudamiento de los hogares. Ello generó un exceso de demanda agregada que no solo presionó al alza la inflación y sus expectativas, sino que también amplió el déficit de la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos a niveles históricamente altos durante varios años. El déficit de la cuenta corriente aumentó desde un nivel del 5,6 % del PIB en 2021, que ya era elevado, a uno del 6,2 % del PIB en 2022, uno de los más altos observados en Colombia. La ampliación del desbalance externo en 2022 se produjo en un año en el que los precios internacionales del petróleo, el carbón y el café se mantuvieron en niveles favorables, lo que contribuyó al buen desempeño de las exportaciones. No obstante, para cubrir los faltantes de oferta, la economía incrementó de manera importante su demanda de importaciones, impidiendo una reducción del desbalance externo. Como consecuencia, la economía colombiana recurrió a un mayor endeudamiento externo, bien sea como flujo de inversión de portafolio o como endeudamiento directo. Todo esto muestra la vulnerabilidad que significa para la economía mantener un nivel de gasto que supera significativamente sus ingresos. La política monetaria restrictiva, junto con el aumento en la carga tributaria, han venido induciendo un ajuste progresivo de estos desequilibrios. La desaceleración de la demanda interna iniciada a partir del cuarto trimestre de 2022 ocurrió de la mano de una moderación del consumo de los hogares, cuyo crecimiento en el primer trimestre de 2023 fue del 3,0 %, comparado con un incremento del 9,5 % en 2022. Esto último se ha reflejado en una desaceleración del crédito de consumo, que pasó de crecer desde un ritmo cercano al 23 % anual a finales del tercer trimestre del año anterior, a algo menos del 7,0 % anual a mediados de junio de 2023. De haberse continuado con una expansión tan rápida del crédito de consumo, se habría podido generar una situación insostenible sobre la capacidad de pago de los hogares. Asimismo, la formación bruta de capital, que tuvo un desempeño sobresaliente en 2022, empezó a mostrar ajustes en sus principales componentes. La principal fuente de dicha corrección ha sido la inversión en maquinaria y equipo, que en el primer trimestre del año presentó caídas tanto en términos trimestrales como anuales, principalmente en el rubro de equipo de transporte. A la par con el avance en la corrección de los desequilibrios macroeconómicos, la inflación total interrumpió la tendencia creciente que mantuvo hasta marzo de 2023. En efecto, luego de alcanzar un nivel del 13,1 % al cierre del año anterior, la inflación total se mantuvo estable alrededor del 13,3 % durante los primeros tres meses de 2023, y a partir de abril empezó a descender, para ubicarse en 12,1 % en junio. Los alimentos han sido el rubro que más ha contribuido a este cambio de tendencia, al haber reducido su variación anual del 27,8 % en diciembre pasado al 14,3 % en junio. Esta variación ha sido compensada en alguna medida por el incremento de la inflación de regulados, debido a los sucesivos aumentos en los precios de la gasolina. Por su parte, la inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados) continúa mostrando rigidez, al ubicarse en el 10,5 % en junio, lo que refleja procesos de indexación de precios. La subcanasta de servicios ha sido especialmente afectada por el fenómeno de indexación, a lo cual se han agregado las presiones de costos laborales, el aumento en los precios de los alimentos que han presionado al alza las comidas fuera del hogar y la elevada demanda por servicios de entretenimiento. Este comportamiento debería ir cediendo a medida que los efectos de la política monetaria terminen por transmitirse a la economía, y la tendencia decreciente de la inflación se refleje en una revisión a la baja de las expectativas de variación de precios por parte del público. Así lo prevén los pronósticos del equipo técnico y las expectativas del mercado que anticipan una inflación decreciente durante los próximos dos años. ____________________________________________________________ 1 Corresponde a la variación anual del IPP de oferta interna. 2 Al cierre de este Informe se conocieron los datos de la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares de junio, con los cuales la tasa de desempleo se mantuvo estable en su medición desestacionalizada del agregado nacional para el trimestre móvil (10,3 %), aunque con una reducción para el dato puntual de junio