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Martin, Alberto, and Jaume Ventura. "Economic Growth with Bubbles." American Economic Review 102, no. 6 (2012): 3033–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.6.3033.
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We develop a stylized model of economic growth with bubbles in which changes in investor sentiment lead to the appearance and collapse of macroeconomic bubbles or pyramid schemes. These bubbles mitigate the effects of financial frictions. During bubbly episodes, unproductive investors demand bubbles while productive investors supply them. These transfers of resources improve economic efficiency thereby expanding consumption, the capital stock and output. When bubbly episodes end, there is a fall in consumption, the capital stock and output. We argue that the stochastic equilibria of the model provide a natural way of introducing bubble shocks into business cycle models. (JEL E22, E23, E32, E44, O41)
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Weise, Andreas Dittmar, Jürgen W. Philips, and Norberto Hochheim. "Cyclicity Of Housing Markets Under The Specific Condition Of The Existence Of A Bubble In The Real Estate Market." Real Estate Management and Valuation 23, no. 3 (2015): 85–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/remav-2015-0028.
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Abstract In recent years, real estate bubbles have been commonplace in housing markets all over the world. That’s why we examine the relation between housing prices during bubbles in 101 cities located in ten different countries, aiming to explain the housing market cycle during a housing bubble, using economic and housing indicators. We obtained data on eight variables used in market cycle analysis which may be able to explain the existence of speculation and the ideal market cycle. The obtained resultsshow that many of economic and housing indicators begin to decrease while housing prices peak. Only the quantity of transactions peaks during the following year. We also observed that a housing bubble can follow three different scenarios, i.e.: the bubble does not burst, or can burst with a slow decline or sudden and rapid collapse. Finally, it is possible to determine that the same variables can provide clear insight into a bubble in the real estate cycle.
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Borhan, Nurharyanti, Nurfadhlina Abdul Halim, Wan Muhammad Amir W. Ahmad, et al. "Rational Speculative Bubble Size in Hang Seng, S&P500 and Nikkei 225 Index Trend from Year 1976 until 2016." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 2.14 (2018): 36. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.14.11150.
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Rational speculative bubble size happens when the prices of an asset surpass its intrinsic value. This bubbles are harmful when burst because its gives a big impact towards the economic. The aims of this study is to show the size of rational speculative bubble existed from year 1976 until 2016. The period are separated into four which are the first cycle is from 1/11976 to 6/12/1987, the second cycle happen in 7/12/1987 to 12/8/1998, 13/8/1998 to 26/10/2008 for the third cycle and 27/10/2008 to 31/12/2016 for the fourth cycle. This study is also emphasizing on the trend of the rational speculative bubble from one cycle to another cycle. This bubbles size was studied in three markets which are Hang Seng, S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 by using generalized Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model. The difference
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Cholewiński, Jarosław. "The Phenomenon of Speculative Bubble in the Light of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory." Equilibrium 4, no. 1 (2010): 51–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/equil.2010.004.
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The article presents the modern interpretation of the Austrian business cycle theory and the look at the phenomenon of economic bubble through the lens of that theory. The aim of the article is to answer the question ‘What is the main cause of economic bubbles’. The author suggests that it is a depiction which integrates cyclical fluctuations induced by credit expansion with the phenomenon of speculative bubble. Capital-based macroeconomics proposed by Garrison can become a core of universal economic theorizing. The model presented by the author shows how credit expansion that decreases interest rate of credits below its natural level causes medium-run discoordination of production structure. Disruptions that lies in the strong fluctuations of capital goods during a cyclical episode can be understand as consecutive stages of speculative bubble. In the paper the author conducted a historical analysis of data to investigate whether the dramatic increase in house prices that occurred in the United States after the year 2000 could have been triggered by credit expansion. The author summarizes that such hypothesis can’t be rejected.
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Girdzijauskas, Stasys, and Dalia Štreimikienė. "APPLICATION OF LOGISTIC MODELS FOR STOCK MARKET BUBBLES ANALYSIS." Journal of Business Economics and Management 10, no. 1 (2009): 45–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/1611-1699.2009.10.45-51.
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The article deals with economic bubbles and analyses their possible causes and tools for the prediction of such bubbles development. An economic bubble is the commonly used term for an economic cycle that is characterized by a rapid expansion followed by a dramatic crash. While some bubbles happen naturally as a part of the economic cycle, some also occur as a result of investor exuberance and serve as correctives. These typically happen in securities, stock markets, real estate and various other business sectors because of certain changes in the way key players conduct business. The well‐known and widely discussed bubbles in asset markets were analysed and compared trying to define the main features, causes and signals of such bubbles creation: Dotcom, Telecom, Health South Corporation, NASDAQ, etc. These bubbles were analysed in the article by applying the logistic growth model allowing to predict the bubbles creation as a result of growth satiation in the conditions of limited resources.
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Štreimikienė, Dalia, and Neringa Barakauskaitė-Jakubauskienė. "AN APPLICATION OF LOGISTIC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT THEORY MODEL TO THE ECONOMIC GROWTH CYCLE IN LITHUANIA / LOGISTINĖS KAPITALO VALDYMO TEORIJOS MODELIO TAIKYMAS LIETUVOS EKONOMINIO AUGIMO CIKLUI." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 17, no. 2 (2011): 352–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2011.583724.
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The article analyses one of the most recent theories of economic growth prof. Girdzijauskas (2002, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010) created logistic growth theory, whose main idea is based on market saturation and the concept of limitation. The essential claims of the theory are being tried to adjust analysing the economic growth cycle of Lithuania in 1995–2009 period. Performed logistic analysis of Lithuania's GDP (Loglet Lab2), macro–economic indicators’ and factors’ affecting them correlation regression analysis (SPSS15,0). The article concludes of the presentation of the created economic growth cycles and the bubble formation mechanism combining hypothetical Lithuanian economic growth cycle assessment model. Santrauka Straipsnyje analizuojama viena iš naujausių ekonominio augimo teorijų – prof. S. Girdzijausko (2006, 2008) sukurta logistine kapitalo augimo teorija, kurios pagrindine idėja remiasi rinkos prisisotinimo ir ribotumo sąvokomis. Teorijos esminius teiginius siekiama pritaikyti, vertinant Lietuvos ekonominio augimo ciklą 1995–2009 metų laikotarpiu. Atliekama Lietuvos BVP logistinė analizė (LogletLab2), makroekonominių rodiklių bei jiems įtaką darančių veiksnių koreliacinė regresinė analizė (SPSS 15,0). Straipsnio pabaigoje pateikimas sukurtas ekonominio augimo ciklus ir burbulo susiformavimo mechanizmą apjungiantis hipotetinis Lietuvos ekonominio augimo ciklo vertinimo modelis.
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Yoshino, Naoyuki, and Tetsuro Mizoguchi. "The Role of Public Works in the Political Business Cycle and the Instability of the Budget Deficits in Japan." Asian Economic Papers 9, no. 1 (2010): 94–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/asep.2010.9.1.94.
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This paper discusses the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) ability to maintain a majority of seats in the Diet after WWII by focusing on the role of public investment. The paper discusses three periods, namely, (i) the high-growth period (1950 to 1985), (ii) the asset bubble period (1986 to 1990), and (iii) the period of economic downturn after the bubble (post 1990). During the high-growth period, government investment had a strong positive output effect and it increased the tax revenue in the medium and long run. The high rate of private capital formation boosted growth and tax revenue even further. During the asset bubble period of the late 1980s, Japanese tax revenue increased due to high asset and property prices, and growth stayed high because of strong aggregate demand. The Japanese economy experienced slower growth after the asset bubble burst. The LDP continued its high-spending policy by issuing Japanese government bonds (JGB) to finance the deficits but has not been able to revive growth to previous levels. Accumulated government debt now amounts to 180 percent of GDP and it will be difficult to issue any more JGB. Fiscal policy in post-bubble Japan no longer fulfilled the stability conditions that were identified by Blinder and Solow (1974).
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Yifan, Ding. "World economic situation and China's new development pattern against background of COVID-19." Napredak 2, no. 2 (2021): 57–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/napredak2-32687.
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The COVID pandemic has devastated the world economy, which has also caused serious slumps in Western developed countries. Although they have adopted "ultra-easy" monetary policy, the real economy did not emerge from recessions because of it and a global "liquidity bubble" was caused instead. The economic recession caused by the pandemic in developed countries may last for years. The governments of some countries in the United States and Europe have adopted strong state intervention methods to control the investment and trade behaviors of enterprises, then force them to "decouple" from China. Based on an objective analysis of the current international situation, China has actively taken countermeasures: on the one hand, it emphasizes mainly relying on the "domestic economic cycle" to maintain growth momentum. And on the other hand, it develops an "international economic cycle" that focus on China`s economy. Establishing a "dual circulation" new development pattern, in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement, is a major strategic choice for achieving high-quality economic development.
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Asadov, Alam I., and Mansor H. Ibrahim. "THEORETICAL IMPACT OF ENHANCED MUSHARAKAH MUTANAQISAH HOME FINANCING ON REAL ESTATE PRICES." Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance 4, no. 1 (2018): 133–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/jimf.v4i1.747.
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This paper theoretically analyzes two alternative modes of home financing. The first mode is the conventional housing loan and the other is Enhanced Musharakah Mutanaqisah (EMM) home financing. Our results reveal the EMM based setting is superior to the conventional housing loans in at least two aspects. These are the prevention of house price inflation in all phases of economic business cycle and the smoothening of real estate cycles. This means that, under the EMM, the risk of real estate bubble formation is subdued, which should prove to be welfare improving.
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Pitros, Charalambos, and Yusuf Arayici. "How to identify housing bubbles? A decision support model." International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis 9, no. 2 (2016): 190–221. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-01-2015-0002.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a decision support model for the early diagnosis of housing bubbles in the UK during the maturity process of the phenomenon. Design/methodology/approach The development process of the model is divided into four stages. These stages are driven by the normal distribution theorem coupled with the case study approach. The application of normal distribution theory is allowed through the usage of several parametric tools. The case studies tested in this research include the last two UK housing bubbles, 1986 to 1989 and 2001/2002 to 2007. The central hypothesis of the model is that during housing bubbles, all speculative activities of market participants follow an approximate synchronisation, and therefore, an irrational, synchronous and periodic increase on a wide range of relevant variables must occur to anticipate the bubble component. An empirical application of the model is conducted on UK housing market data over the period of 1983-2011. Findings The new approach successfully identifies the well-known UK historical bubble episodes over the period of 1983-2011. The study further determines that for uncovering housing bubbles in the UK, house price changes have the same weight with the debt–burden ratio when their velocity is positive. Finally, the application of this model has led us to conclude that the model’s outputs fluctuate approximately in line with phases of the UK real estate cycle. Originality/value This paper proposes a new measure for studying the presence of housing bubbles. This measure is not simply an ex post detection technique but dating algorithms that use data only up to the point of analysis for an on-going bubble assessment, giving an early warning diagnostic that can assist market participants and regulators in market monitoring.
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Abueg, Luisito, Christian Marvin Zamora, and Leonard Nevin Correa. "COVID-19 pandemic and the Philippine real estate property cycle: indications of bubble and burst in the “new normal”?" Philippine Review of Economics 58, no. 1&2 (2021): 264–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.37907/11erp1202jd.
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The Philippines has been one of the countries greatly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The country is regarded to be under the world's longest lockdown with an upsurge of cases, and it has also entered into an official recession with record-breaking economic contraction and high unemployment rates, fueling economic uncertainties. These macroeconomic indicators show serious signs of the adversities of the pandemic affecting the real estate development sector. As the real estate sector recalibrates its plans on response, recovery, and resiliency, this paper attempts to provide empirical evidence on the celebrated model in real estate economics proposed by Homer Hoyt and later developed by Glenn R. Mueller: the property cycle. We also provide contextualization on the property cycle empirics under the pandemic, given the sector’s reintroduction of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). We argue that the REIT mainly supports the real estate development industry given the adversities of the pandemic and its accompanying recession, as well as an update to the long-term plans of the industry and its players in compliance with the “new normal”.
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Beretta, Edoardo. "On the Inflation-Debt-Bubble “Vicious Cycle” in Times of Evolving Money—A Memorandum of Forward-Looking Lessons." Economies 12, no. 2 (2024): 26. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies12020026.
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The global financial crisis (2008–2009) represents a notable example of a generally unpredicted crisis in economic history. Nevertheless, it presented features comparable to almost any previous (monetarily related) crisis episode. For instance, it was characterized by a “vicious cycle” made by over-issued money and/or over-granted loans nourishing private and public indebtedness and—eventually—affecting asset prices with stable consumer price indexes. While the post-COVID-19 inflation presents different characteristics because of being a crisis “exogenous” to the economic system, the present Communication claims that future crises (if endogenous to the economic system) are likely to follow usual patterns. The approach used to analyse the transmission channels contributing to economic and financial crises is theoretical. Nevertheless, the present Communication still contains statistical evidence in support of the predictability of such crises as soon as their usual dynamics is understood. The statistical analysis carried out is rather descriptive than causal in nature. Finally, this Communication reminds that “typical” economic and financial crises in advanced economies behave along some consolidated patterns. At their origins, there are mostly over-issued money and/or over-granted loans by central and/or commercial banks financing private and public debt. This phenomenon exacerbates risks in the economy and—while it incentivises money issuers and credit granters in good times to over-issue money and over-grant credits to earn extra-profits—it over-exposes economic agents to the risk of (even greater) economic losses in negative times. As soon as the bubble to be defined as over-proportionally grown prices of specific assets due to over-issued money and over-granted credits pops and funds are rapidly divested, prices collapse and drive the economy into a severe crisis.
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Hahn, Jonas, Verena Keil, Thomas Wiegelmann, and Sven Bienert. "Office properties through the interest cycle." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 34, no. 5 (2016): 432–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-01-2016-0006.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of changes in macro-economic conditions going forward, focusing on a change in interest policy, with regard to office letting and investment markets. Design/methodology/approach – For this analysis, the authors constructed two vector-autoregressive models, measuring the response of office rents and capital values in Germany to economic impulses. The authors isolated effects of unique exogenous positive shocks (such as economic growth or interest leaps) on the basis of impulse-response functions in order to understand the complex dynamic interdependence between several economic factors and office performance changes. Findings – The authors initially find a moderately positive development of both office performance components even although supposing an increase in interest level. In terms of capital values, the authors find that they do not drop before 1.5 years after the interest impulse and the negative effect peaks after approximately nine quarters. Furthermore, the reaction to a change in GDP is significantly lower than a reaction to the interest rate, but impulses in other macro-economic factors provoke stronger reactions. Finally, the authors find that a positive interest shock leads to a comparably robust development and economic sustainability in office rents throughout a consideration horizon of 24 quarters. Research limitations/implications – Estimations are based on observations from a time period containing two rather extraordinary market phases. As they included bubble growth and the low-interest environment, the authors find that certain patterns in both phases neutralize each other when looking at the total time frame. The authors constructed sub-samples to compensate for this. However, the research does not provide to what extent the measured impulse-responses stay forecast-proof, if the market moves into a phase of short-term normalization. Practical implications – This paper provides insights into estimated impulse-response patterns on a hypothetical sudden increase of several macro-economic determinants. On this basis, the probable reaction to an increase in, for example, the interest rate level can be approximated. Also, the paper provides a fundamental understanding of the economic sustainability of German office properties in terms of their value and rent performance in the case of exogenous shocks. Originality/value – This paper contains the first vector-autoregressive, impulse-response analysis of office markets in Germany in the context of several macro-economic drivers, including the interest level. It delivers insights into market reaction patterns on the basis of simulated one standard deviation shocks in all included variables.
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Imai, Masami, and Seitaro Takarabe. "Bank Integration and Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from Japan." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3, no. 1 (2011): 155–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.1.155.
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This paper investigates whether banking integration plays an important role in transmitting financial shocks across geographical boundaries by using a dataset on the branch network of nationwide city banks and a prefecture-level dataset on the formation and collapse of the real estate bubble in Japan. The results show that the credit and economic cycle of financially integrated prefectures exhibits higher sensitivity to fluctuation in land prices in cities relative to financially isolated ones. These results suggest nationwide banks can be a source of economic volatility when they pass on the impacts of financial shocks to host economies. (JEL E44, G21, R30)
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Walther, Herbert. "Forty years of real-estate bubbles in the US and the macroeconomy: a Keynesian perspective." European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention 16, no. 3 (2019): 381–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2019.03.07.
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This paper presents a dynamic, non-linear, stock–flow consistent aggregate Keynesian model with a banking sector, a household sector, a government sector, and a real-estate sector, to study the interactions between booms and busts in the real-estate sector and the macroeconomy. Using this model we try to simulate some ‘stylized facts’ about the US economy observable during the last four decades. It is argued that for various reasons house-price volatility in the US has increased since the 1980s: house prices seem to have followed a ‘cobweb’ pattern of accelerating instability, leading to the climax of the financial crises in 2007/2008. A new run-up of house prices has already started, pointing towards a looming bubble ahead. The US economy seems to have become addicted to asset-price bubbles as the driving force of the business cycle. It is argued that various institutional changes, which can be linked to the dominant economic ideology, are responsible for these developments.
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Avni, Nufar, and Nurit Alfasi. "UniverCity: The Vicious Cycle of Studentification in a Peripheral City." City & Community 17, no. 4 (2018): 1248–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cico.12338.
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Research on studentification has unpacked the spatial, economic, and social impacts that are associated with the growing presence of students in cities. Nonetheless, considerably less attention has been paid to the broader regional and national contexts that shape studentification. Using the case study of Ben–Gurion University of the Negev, Beersheba, we argue that the studentification of the city should be understood within its context as the periphery of the country. Despite the university's central location and its involvement in revitalization efforts in the region, Ben–Gurion University is surrounded by marginalized neighborhoods which have turned into a “student bubble”. We show that the segregation between the campus and the city results from a vicious cycle that reproduces the city's poor image and disrupts the university's attempts to advance the city and region. Although overlooked by policy–makers, the implications of this cycle reach far beyond the campus' surrounding and affect the city and to some extent the whole region.
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Jadevicius, Arvydas, and Peter van Gool. "Assessing Dutch housing cycle and near-term market prospects." Journal of European Real Estate Research 13, no. 2 (2020): 257–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jerer-07-2019-0020.
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Purpose This study is a practice undertaking examining three main concerns that currently dominate Dutch housing market debate: how long is the cycle, will the current house price inflation continue and is housing market in a bubble. With national house prices reaching record highs across all major cities, future market prospects became a topic of significant debate among policymakers, investors and the populace. Design/methodology/approach A triangulation of well-established academic methods is used to perform investigation. The models include Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, volatility autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH approximation) and right tail augmented Dickey–Fuller (Rtadf) test (bubble screening technique). Findings Interestingly, over the years from 1985 to 2019 research period, filtering extracts only one Dutch national housing cycle. This is a somewhat distinct characteristic compared to other advanced Western economies (inter alia the UK and the USA) where markets tend to experience 8- to 10-year gyrations. Volatility and Rtadf test suggest that current house prices in most Dutch cities are in excess of historical averages and statistical thresholds. House price levels in Almere, Amsterdam, The Hague, Groningen, Rotterdam and Utrecht are of particular concern. Originality/value Retail investors should therefore be cautious as they are entering the market at the time of elevated housing values. For institutional investors, those investing in long-term, housing in key Dutch metropolitan areas, even if values decline, is still an attractive investment conduit.
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Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, Luis Garicano, and Tano Santos. "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Eurozone." Journal of Economic Perspectives 27, no. 3 (2013): 145–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.27.3.145.
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We study the mechanisms through which the entry into the euro delayed, rather than advanced, key economic reforms in the eurozone periphery and led to the deterioration of important institutions in these countries. We show that the abandonment of the reform process and the institutional deterioration, in turn, not only reduced their growth prospects but also fed back into financial conditions, prolonging the credit boom and delaying the response to the bubble when the speculative nature of the cycle was already evident. We analyze empirically the interrelation between the financial boom and the reform process in Greece, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal and, by way of contrast, in Germany, a country that did experience a reform process after the creation of the euro.
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Cossiga, Giovanni Antonio. "Stability and Instability of an Economic System: Considerations." Review of European Studies 9, no. 3 (2017): 8. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/res.v9n3p8.
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The essay would like to investigate on the inflation as an equilibrium problem within an economic system hit by an outside or inside shock. The persistence of economic system instability makes the inflation speed to grow, gradually reaching the maturity condition. From this point forward, the nominal price movement becomes regular and this regularity will allow the economic system to have an almost-normal working condition. The inflation must be intended as a remedy spontaneously applied when a system is hit by a severe shock, then becoming unstable. According to this view, also the negative inflation or deflation should be regarded as a spontaneous remedy, usually appearing in the world of economy to face a financial crisis caused by a speculative bubble outbreak. In this case, deflation seems to be the mere consequence of a severe economic downturn, which activates a negative inflation. The negative inflation caused by the decline in the economic situation, does accumulate inside the system and therefore is creating a progressive settlement of structural inflation. The deflation is strictly related to the depressed economy (recession), just similar to the link created between typical inflation and economic cycle. When going out from the recession, the economic recovery leads to a deflation gradual mitigation. If the economic recovery is fuelled by strong amount of public resources, it could be demonstrated that the increasing amount of public debt is neutral on the deflation destiny.
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Schnabl, Gunther. "Monetary Policy and Structural Decline: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis." Asian Economic Papers 14, no. 1 (2015): 124–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00327.
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Japan experienced a boom-and-bust cycle in the real estate and stock markets almost 20 years earlier than Europe. Since the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy, the country has fallen into a deep recession and has experimented with crisis therapies in the form of unconventional monetary expansion, Keynesian fiscal stimulus, and recapitalization of financial institutions. Japan reached a low interest rate environment in the mid 1990s and has accumulated an exceptionally high level of public debt during more than two decades of economic stagnation. This paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. It is argued that in both Japan and Europe the consequences of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies include the hysteresis of a low-interest rate and high government debt environment, the erosion of the allocation and signaling functions of the interest rate, the gradual quasi-nationalization of financial institutions, as well as gradual real income losses. The economic policy implication for Europe and Japan is the timely exit from crisis therapies in the form of excessively expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.
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Majewski, Sebastian, and Agnieszka Majewska. "Using Monte Carlo Methods for the Valuation of Intangible Assets in Sports Economics." Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia 17, no. 2 (2017): 71–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/foli-2017-0019.
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AbstractThis paper indicates the possibilities of using Monte Carlo simulations methods in players’ performance rights value monitoring. The authors have formulated a hypothesis that connects Monte Carlo methods (MC) and econometric models of the player’s life cycle that could give club managers another source of information for the decision process. The MC method in finance is usually used to value the option price on the basis of assumed distribution of price changes. In this approach, the method was used to determine future the hypothetical value of footballers’ performance rights. Using econometric models of the player’s life cycle we could observe and analyse the phase in the life cycle of a football player and determine volatility.In this paper we use historical data of the market values of chosen football players from the websitehttp://transfermarkt.de. The analysis is based on popular valuable players after the growth phase of their life cycle. For the visualisation of the “Championships games bubble” problem we analyse the periods before and after the UEFA EURO 2016.The opportunities and threats of a such an attempt are shown in this paper.
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BOUALI, SAFIEDDINE. "FEEDBACK LOOP IN EXTENDED VAN DER POL'S EQUATION APPLIED TO AN ECONOMIC MODEL OF CYCLES." International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 09, no. 04 (1999): 745–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218127499000535.
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We connect to the Van der Pol's equation an appropriate feedback loop which unfolds a wide range of dynamic behavior. The bifurcation diagrams reveal the rise, then the extinction of the chaos bubble. Moreover, the numerical computations display an antisymmetric strange attractor with morphological plasticity by the variation of the sole feedback control parameter. This chaotic 3D system is built to found an heuristic model of economic cycles focused on the capital flight observed in the less developed countries. The model exhibits the ability of the potential GDP to drive the growth dynamic.
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Gao, Meizhen. "Optimizing Energy Storage System Operations and Configuration through a Whale Optimization Algorithm Enhanced with Chaotic Mapping and IoT Data: Enhancing Efficiency and Longevity of Energy Storage Stations." Wireless Power Transfer 2023 (December 4, 2023): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/9998972.
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To enhance the charging and discharging strategy of the energy storage system (ESS) and optimize its economic efficiency, this paper proposes a novel approach based on the enhanced whale algorithm. Recognizing that the standard whale algorithm can sometimes suffer from local optima in high-dimensional multiobjective optimization, this study introduces chaotic mapping and individual information exchange mechanisms to address this challenge. The proposed algorithm explores optimal configurations for different energy device placements and capacities through encircling and bubble searches, evaluating various multiobjective functions for optimization. In addition, the algorithm refines both the system operation model and the ESS configuration model, with the objective function being the analysis of the average annual revenue of the ESS. Model testing results demonstrate that this algorithm yields more moderate energy storage (ES) capacity decay, extending operational time to 3,124 days and achieving a full-life cycle benefit of the ESS as high as 1,821,623.68 yuan. Also, our algorithm demonstrates high efficiency, with minimal test time (68.36 seconds) and quick optimization (0.031 seconds per cycle), regardless of problem complexity.
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Harnos, László. "Cycles of the Housing Market in Hungary from the Economic Crisis until Today." Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy 64, no. 2 (2018): 3–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ngoe-2018-0007.
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AbstractThe main aim of this paper is to identify the underlying reasons for the cyclical nature of the Hungarian housing market, in particular the business cycles, the construction, and market participants’ expectations. Our research was conducted based on analysis of statistical data and of the housing market indices. As a result, it can be stated that cyclic behaviour of the housing market may be explained primarily with business cycles, but state subsidies and mortgages also affect the variations. Accordingly, the increasing lending and the high amount of subsidies can generate a price bubble. The supply of second-hand dwellings looks more flexible compared with that of new ones. However, the expectations of market operators do not have a demonstrable effect on the housing market.
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Dzikevičius, Audrius, Lukas Kazlauskas, and Šarūnas Bruzgė. "Evaluation of factors leading to formation of price-bubbles in the real estate market of Lithuania." Verslas: Teorija ir Praktika 16, no. 4 (2015): 345–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/btp.2015.544.
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Recently, real estate market has been discussed more frequently in the framework of economic analysis. The global economic crisis of 2008 has demonstrated the severity of financial shock that can be caused by inconsiderate investments in the real estate market. The present article analyses business cycles and the phenomenon of a price-bubble in that context. Drawing on the analysis of reference literature we identify the main reasons that can lead to fluctuations of prices in the real estate market. Finally, drawing on correlation and regression analysis we determine which factors have the strongest influence on the Lithuanian real estate market.
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Hu, Jiayi. "The Impact of Japan's Yield Curve Control (YCC) on Inflation of Japan." Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences 39, no. 1 (2023): 39–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/39/20231931.
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After the bursting of the bubble crisis in Japan, the government adopted a series of quantitative easing policies to improve the weak economic environment and promote economic growth. in September 2016, the Japanese government began to implement the yield curve control policy to improve the economic environment by controlling the yield on government bonds. the YCC policy, in theory, could promote economic growth and achieve the inflation target in Japan, but the actual effect was lacking. This paper analyses the main reason for the unsatisfactory implementation of the yield curve policy in Japan is the special social environment in Japan. Although the YCC policy has led to an increase in the money circulating in the market, after firms have received the money, they do not expand their investment production at home due to Japan's own lack of domestic demand, but choose to invest the money in stocks, government bonds or other overseas markets for profit. After the money flowed around the market, it went back to the capital market without making the liquidity in the market increase. This paper uses Granger causality tests to analyze the causal relationship between the ageing population, personal savings, average wage and the inflation rate in Japan, and finds through the tests that the inflation rate conversely affects the above factors. The interaction between these two factors has trapped the Japanese economy in a cycle of economic malaise, which is difficult to break with YCC policy.
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Gray, David. "An international housing market in the British Isles: Evidence from business and medium-term cycles using a Friedman test." Urban Studies 57, no. 2 (2019): 307–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0042098019839886.
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It has been averred that there is an international market in housing (inter alia, Adams Z and Füss R (2010) Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets. Journal of Housing Economics 19(1): 38–50; Helbling T and Terrones M (2003) When Bubbles Burst – Chapter II, World Economic Outlook. April. Washington, DC: IMF; Pomogajko K and Voigtländer M (2012) Co-movement of house price cycles – A factor analysis. International Journal of Housing Markets & Analysis 5(4): 414–427). Although some authors examine the business cycle range, the mechanism by which this comes about is more likely to reflect financial market integration and evidence for this should be found in the medium-term cycle range. As a case study, there is an analysis of three associated ‘regional’ housing markets and their price movements. Northern Ireland’s economy is distinct but should be linked to the rest of the UK by common policy shocks, and to Eire through a mutual border. Using a Friedman test, it is found that even this small cluster is not integrated. It is asserted that a housing cycle has both a financial and a business component. As Drehmann et al. (Drehmann M, Borio C and Tstasaronis K (2012) Characterising the financial cycle: Don’t lose sight of the medium term! BIS Working Papers, No. 380, Bank for International Settlements, June) argue, cycles in the medium-term range are significant in housing. A dual component approach highlights the relevance of cyclical interaction for both revealing integration and the need to intervene to moderate cyclical reinforcement for crisis-avoidance. After 1995, Dublin and London are found to be more integrated than before, which is consistent with the international city integration thesis of Holly et al. (Holly S, Pesaran H and Yamagata T (2011) The spatio-temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK. Journal of Urban Economics 69(1): 2–23). Lastly, a simple test for cyclical asymmetry indicates that there is highness (the obverse of deepness, where the troughs are deeper than peaks) in the UK financial cycle.
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Sieroń, Arkadiusz. "Znaczenie efektu Cantillona w teorii ekonomii." Ekonomia 22, no. 3 (2016): 9–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.19195/2084-4093.22.3.1.
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The Role of Cantillon Effect in EconomicsThe aim of this article is to examine the role of the Cantillon effect in economics. The literature of economic theory lacks the detailed discussion of the implications of the first-round effect for economics. This paper attempts to fill this gap. The article is mainly theoretical, but considerations presented are illustrated by relevant empirical data. Based on the analysis, the author concludes that the effect of Cantillon develops particularly the theory of money and inflation, the theory of banking and central banking, the theory of business cycle and price bubbles, the theory of income distribution and income and wealth inequalities, and the theory of public choice.
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HAGIWARA, TAIJI, and YOICHI MATSUBAYASHI. "CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, VINTAGE AND PRODUCTIVITY: THE JAPANESE EXPERIENCE." Singapore Economic Review 64, no. 03 (2019): 747–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590816500211.
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We empirically examine the relationship between capital accumulation, vintage and productivity of industries in Japan using firm-level microdata. Our analyses confirm that vintage significantly influenced productivity during the period of economic expansion. The effect was particularly notable during the upturn that started in 2000, when most examined industries displayed strong vintage effects. The rejuvenation of capital equipment during this period clearly resulted from a strong productivity effect. During the economic bubble of the late 1980s, by contrast, vintage exerted no observable effects on productivity despite significant increase in investment. This finding shows that an increase in capital stock during this period was not necessarily productive and likely produced a merely temporary boom. We reconfirm that the relation between vintage and productivity changed in subtle ways in response to the phases of business cycles.
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Singh, Onkar, Sandeep K. Rai, and Ravindra K. Ambikesh. "Investigations on Solar Powered Vapour Absorption Refrigeration based Air Conditioning." SAMRIDDHI : A Journal of Physical Sciences, Engineering and Technology 15, no. 01 (2023): 116–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.18090/samriddhi.v15i01.15.
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A solar-operated vapor absorption refrigeration cycle is environment-friendly refrigeration system that holds the potential to be used for refrigeration and air conditioning systems. Such a system requires a solar concentrator to run the vapor absorption refrigeration cycle using LiBr-H2O-based refrigeration/air conditioner for small capacity applications. With the solar-powered pumping process, this refrigeration system becomes completely free from electricity requirements. However, the limitations of all time solar radiation availability, low-pressure maintenance requirement of the LiBr-H2O system, low efficiency, and low COP as compared to other vapour compression refrigeration based air conditioning system are the key deterrents. In the present study, the modeling and analysis of various components used in the proposed arrangement of solar vapor absorption refrigeration - air conditioning system has been carried out to improve the performance It is seen that altering the geometrical property of the bubble pump, as well as heat input through a solar concentrating collector, use of hydrogen as a third fluid increases the rate of evaporation which in turn increases the cooling effect as well as COP of the cycle. At 54% concentration of LiBr and 4.5kW heat input, the COP of the proposed layout is found to be 0.61.
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Seo, Hye-Seong, and Yejin Joo. "Do External Impacts Cause Differences between Regional and National Business Cycles?: Focusing on the Dongnam Metropolitan Area." Korea International Trade Research Institute 19, no. 1 (2023): 197–210. http://dx.doi.org/10.16980/jitc.19.1.202302.197.
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Purpose – This study analyzes large differences and similarities through comparison with national level business fluctuations, including differences between regions within the Dongnam metropolitan area, focusing on the impact of major domestic and international economic shocks. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study conducted econometric analysis using the Markov switching model with the monthly manufacturing production indexes of each region from 2000 to 2020 as data. Findings – The characteristics of Dongnam metropolitan area, distinguished from other regions nationwide, are as follows. First, the regions’s manufacturing focuses on the heavy chemical industry and did not shrink, even during the 7th cyclical recession caused by the global IT bubble bursting. Second, the manufacturing sector in the Dongnam metropolitan area continued a downward trend, even during the 11th cyclical expansion. However, economic impact was found to have varied in size by region. Our analysis results show that Busan was more affected by internal and external impacts than Ulsan and Gyeongnam, showing slower recovery. Ulsan was shown to have much higher manufacturing resilience than other regions, despite several internal and external economic impacts. Finally, Gyeongnam showed several recession phases in 2008 and after 2016, but the duration was found to have been much shorter than in Busan. Research Implications – The impact and characteristics of business cycles caused by external shocks were found to have varied by region. The results imply that regionally specialized industrial support measures are required together with economic stabilization policies at the national level. It was also found that separate measures at the regional level need to be implemented in connection with governmental support measures for regional manufacturing industries.
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Wang, Yuqian, Che-Wei Chiu, and Mark Wrolstad. "Do Covenants of Bonds Outstanding Affect the Choice of Covenants of New Issues? Evidence from the U.S. Corporate Bonds." Accounting and Finance Research 7, no. 1 (2018): 223. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/afr.v7n1p223.
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This paper investigates the relation between debt covenants of a firm’s bonds outstanding and covenants of its newly issued bonds. On the one hand, since covenants are priced and costly, newly issued bonds may not include covenants that have been used in bonds outstanding, suggesting a negative relation between covenants of bonds outstanding and those of new issues. On the other hand, since firms tend to use boilerplate language in debt indentures, similar covenants of bonds outstanding are likely to be used repeatedly in the contracts of new issues, indicating a positive relation. Based on the U.S. public corporate bonds data from 1990 to 2014, this paper provides empirical evidence that covenants of a firm’s new issues are positively related to covenants of its bonds outstanding, suggesting boilerplate language is widely used in corporate bond contracts. Results also show that use of boilerplate language is significantly related to issuers’ financial condition and economic cycle. Issuers with stable financial condition, as measured by commercial paper ratings, tend to use boilerplate language more frequently. And during the Dot-Com bubble period, boilerplate language is used more prevalently than during the financial crisis period.
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Song, Jiyeoun. "Young people, precarious work, and the development of youth employment policies in Japan." Japanese Journal of Political Science 19, no. 3 (2018): 444–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1468109918000117.
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AbstractJapan's labor market has been under severe strain over the past few decades, driven by its protracted economic recession, a series of labor market reforms, and changing labor management practices. Confronting these new challenges, an increasing number of young people have had extreme difficulties in searching for decent and stable jobs in the labor market, trapped in the vicious cycle of precarious employment. This paper examines the deterioration of employment and labor market conditions for Japan's youth after the collapse of the asset bubble in the early 1990s and the government's policy efforts to address these concerns, especially since the early 2000s, a period during which it has initiated a wide array of youth employment and labor market policies. In particular, it analyzes variations in policy target group and goal across different measures and evaluates the effectiveness and limitations of these programs in dealing with youth problems in the labor market. This paper argues that while the government has promoted various policy tools to help young people become economically and socially independent individuals, it has gradually shifted its policy focus toward human capital development for growth and industrial competitiveness as a way of revitalizing Japan's troubling economy.
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Dorofeenko, Viktor, Gabriel S. Lee, and Kevin D. Salyer. "Rationale Erklärungen für Immobilienpreis-Bubbles: Die Auswirkungen von Risikoschocks auf die Wohnimmobilienpreisvolatilität und die Volatilität von Investitionen in Wohnimmobilien." Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik 12, no. 2 (2011): 151–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2516.2011.00361.x.
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AbstractThe dramatic world-wide housing boom and bust cycles during the last few years are often described in the media as “bubbles” and were largely caused by irrational exuberance due to the liberalization of housing finance (i.e. credit market irregularities in the U.S.: the subprime markets and mortgage structured products). Following Dorofeenko et al (2011), this paper, however, argues that many of the business and housing stylized facts, especially, the U.S. housing price and residential investment volatilites can be explained by analyzing the role of uncertainty (risk) in the framework of a Real Business Cycle model that includes a housing sector with financial information frictions. Consequently, we show for the U.S., these large housing price and residential investment boom and bust cycles are at least were driven largely by economic fundamentals with irrationality (or psychology) at most in the background.
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Mothorpe, Chris, and David Wyman. "Collapse: the decline and fall of master planned golf course communities." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 35, no. 6 (2017): 638–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-04-2017-0030.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the pricing of vacant lots in master planned golf course communities (GCCs) over the period of 2000-2016. The authors compare the longitudinal pricing behavior of different lot types during this economic cycle and examine the causes of the property bubble and subsequent deterioration of the business model with the arrival of the Financial Economic Crisis (FEC). Design/methodology/approach The authors construct spatial hedonic models for three master planned GCCs in Pickens County, South Carolina and use interaction dummies to examine the pricing of different types of vacant lots before and after the FEC. Findings The authors find that there is a collapse in value for interior lots in the GCCs compared to interior lots in the county. As interior lots comprise over 50 percent of inventory in a typical master planned GCC, this loss of real estate value threatens the viability of such communities in the aftermath of the FEC. Practical implications The research results inform real estate investors, real estate developers, current homebuyers and potential homebuyers of the impacts of the FEC on master planned GCCs and some of the risks associated with such developments. Originality/value This is the first paper the authors are aware of that indicates the financial viability of master planned GCCs is associated with the pricing fragility of interior lots during cyclical markets. While demand for premium quality lots suffers, there is a collapse in demand for interior lots during the crisis.
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Bostani, Maryam Rahemi. "Fungi and Effect of Fungi on Bodies." American International Journal of Cancer Studies 1, no. 1 (2019): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.46545/aijcs.v1i1.46.
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The world and Kingdom Fungi involves many of the most important organisms, both in terms of their ecological and economic roles. By breaking down dead organic material, they continue the cycle of nutrients through ecosystems. In addition, most vascular plants could not grow without the symbiotic fungi, or mycorrhizae, that increase their roots and supply essential nutrients. Other fungi provide numerous drugs (such as penicillin and other antibiotics), foods like mushrooms, truffles and morels, and the bubbles in bread, champagne, and beer.
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Thornton, Mark. "Was Richard Cantillon a Mercantilist?" Journal of the History of Economic Thought 29, no. 4 (2007): 417–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10427710701666495.
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Richard Cantillon is considered by many to be the first economic theorist. His contributions span such diverse topics as methodology, value and price theory, population, money, international trade, business cycles, the circular-flow model of the economy, and the price-specie-flow mechanism. His only known book, Essai sur la Nature du Commerce en Général (hereafter, the Essai), may represent one of the single largest steps forward in the social sciences. Many attempts have been made to classify Richard Cantillon into a well-defined school of thought and he has been claimed as a forerunner by many schools of economic thought, but for purposes of categorization, he is most often placed with the mercantilists. Cantillon lived and wrote before the Physiocrats. He was involved in John Law's Mississippi Bubble, one of the grandest attempts to actualize the mercantilist dream of increasing the supply of money, and he was involved in the merchant trade and merchant banking business, so it would be natural to consider him a mercantilist writer. Those who have classified him as a mercantilist, however, base their categorization mainly on excerpts from the Essai where Cantillon seems to display sympathy with mercantilist policy objectives in such areas as international trade, monetary policy, and economic development.
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Wang, Lei, Shouwei Li, Jining Wang, and Yi Meng. "Real estate bubbles in a bank-real estate loan network model integrating economic cycle and macro-prudential stress testing." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 542 (March 2020): 122576. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.122576.
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Kita, Toshiro. "International comparative study on open innovation from the viewpoint of organisational ability, including research on corporation ambidexterity." Impact 2021, no. 4 (2021): 6–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.21820/23987073.2021.4.6.
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When the asset bubble burst in the early 1990s in Japan, a long period of economic stagnation followed. Professor Toshiro Kita, Graduate School of Management, Doshisha University, Japan, believes a lack of understanding of the importance of business ambidexterity contributed to this difficult period for Japanese firms and that understanding and utilising ambidexterity could have significant benefits for businesses. Kita is interested in innovation management and the ways in which the application of ambidexterity can help businesses. He believes that businesses can thrive by adopting the Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA) loop alongside the Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) Cycle and his work also looks at other aspects of innovation management, such as entrepreneurship, disruptive innovation and corporate culture and cognitive bias, as well as innovation management in the context of COVID-19. This later strand of research involves looking at how ambidexterity can help businesses to thrive in the current challenging climate. A recent important finding for Kita, which emerged from his project 'Study on Ambidextrous Capabilities of Japanese Electronics Firms' was that firms that were performing well conducted exploration during phases of growth and exploitation during phases of decline and this was the opposite way round for firms performing poorly. This served to highlight how exploration and exploitation can be successfully implemented. Through hosting workshops and seminars Kita shares his findings and knowledge and he also collaborates with industry groups.
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Backhaus, Achim, Aliya Zhakanova Isiksal, and Matthias Bausch. "What Financial Conditions Affect Dynamic Equity Risk Factor Allocation?" Economies 10, no. 2 (2022): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies10020042.
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The “technology bubble” in the late 1990s, the financial crisis in 2007/2008, and the Eurozone crisis generated significant losses across several asset classes. The objective of this paper is to investigate risk premia factors such as size, value, momentum, carry, quality, and low volatility and their time-variant behavior. The time-variant behavior of these risk premia baskets has been analyzed based on different financial conditions: The business cycle, the yield curve, equity market momentum, and different risk conditions. Factor calculations are based on the MSCI World universe. The monthly data set ranges from January 1995 to September 2017. The results underpin the prevalent observation that equity risk factors consistently outperform the broad market and therefore generate significant alpha. However, the paper shows that a dynamic allocation of risk factors can achieve an attractive return–risk relation. The study shows very clearly how different risk factors behave in different financial conditions and that an allocation to more offensive or more conservative risk factors can outperform a diversified, equally-weighted portfolio.
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Cossiga, Giovanni Antonio. "The Deflationary Tendencies of the Economic Systems in the Case of a Financial Crisis." Research in Economics and Management 1, no. 2 (2016): 75. http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/rem.v1n2p75.
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<p><em>The essay would like to explore the subject of instability, within an economy struggling with a speculative bubble and a financial crisis. In this context, the instability is showing its ambiguity, therefore showing poor growth and low inflation: thus it’s giving a self-portrait of an apparent regularity. </em><em>However</em><em>, the</em><em> </em><em>possibility to find away to measure</em><em> </em><em>this distortion</em><em> </em><em>can allow us</em><em> </em><em>to certify</em><em> </em><em>that </em><em>an unstable condition is affecting the economic system,</em><em> </em><em>even when</em><em> </em><em>the main variables</em><em> </em><em>are ambiguous</em><em>. To this purpose, we should examine carefully the inflation trend that, in the case of a pre-financial crisis, is showing a clear tendency to deflation and therefore, has a profile which is inconsistent with the main variables. </em><em>By the</em><em> </em><em>use</em><em> </em><em>of </em><em>self-regressive equations, we</em><em> </em><em>will be able to review</em><em> </em><em>the</em><em> </em><em>trends</em><em> </em><em>of the</em><em> </em><em>main macro</em><em>-variables within those</em><em> </em><em>countries</em><em> </em><em>affected</em><em> </em><em>by the</em><em> </em><em>recent</em><em> </em><em>financial crisis.</em><em></em></p><em>Therefore, we seek confirmation that the phenomenon regarding the ambiguous inflation trend (tendency to deflation) in relation to the economic cycle (limited growth) should be general, in the case of speculative bubbles spreading worldwide, as in the past ten years. If so, the sharp correction induced by the financial crisis perhaps could resolve the ambiguity showed in the performance of two variables, the Inflation and the GDP. We can assume that after the financial crisis blows, during the following years those two variables have got a more harmonious relationship, thanks to the instability correction system started by the deep economic depression. We tried to confirm this setting with the same number of self-regressive equations, with positive results for those countries that had already taken the way of a gradual return to stability. Finally, on the basis of this research experience, we have tried to build an Instability Index, as shown in the Appendix: this index has been calculated for many Western countries and for the Far East</em><em>, as well.</em>
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Hou, Xiaotian. "Towards Transparency and Security: An Analysis of The Application of Blockchain in Digital Journalism." Academic Journal of Science and Technology 4, no. 3 (2023): 80–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.54097/ajst.v4i3.4799.
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Blockchain technology has been regarded as a disruptive new technology from its very beginning. Various blockchain platforms, such as one featuring a public chain, or a private chain, or an alliance chain, are built for the news industry. With its unique technological features, it helps the journalism industry rebuild a transparent production chain and solve the problems in news production. Finally, the incentive mechanism of crypto tokens creates a virtuous cycle of content output, source management and fact checking to protect copyrights and strengthen the accountability mechanism. However, the existing block technology is not mature. Due to technological demands, energy cost and potential economic bubbles in token trading, applications of blockchain in journalism require further technological tweaks and updates.
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Kharvanagh, Mirtaleb Hosseini. "Student Innovation Process from Self-architecting Point of View." Asian Social Science 12, no. 5 (2016): 195. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ass.v12n5p195.
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<p>Love to bubble the innovative creativity within oneself and increase the capacity of creativity capacity in human nature show the most striking difference between him and the other creations and will never be the end for this aim because man has always been following the attainment of immortality and is ahead of its era. The innovative creativity capacity of the mind is the most powerful incentives to form the processes that human could have been successful to represent it till today because human did a lot of searches and endeavors to access the eternity and being vanguard against the time over the time so as to find the solution to this cycle but he couldn’t be successful in this field.</p><p>Lack of access to the innovative internal sources is because the man should at the first step be aware of philosophy, ignorance and life and critic them without the slightest consideration so that by attending self architect be aware of the value and the ability of the mind and by depending on own ingenuity move toward the creation of the new theoretical to outshine the time and lead up to the millennium of those won be and the powerful presence and immortality would be realized that it’s output would be entering into the ultramodern mind cycle. The innovation means creating and providing new vents of the theoretical with the content of vanguard against the time.<strong> </strong>The process of entering to this cycle is so that the student must have believed his ignorance to be able to pass through his mental illness and feels the thirst of knowledge. Now he finds that having the eyes for viewing the wisdom and finding the ingenuity should pass via for main cycle to attend the knowledge and innovation through the sight of his architect (creator). Failure to pass the mentioned process expresses the shuck document with empty reason ownership. Realizing the process of forming own diagram and innovative design in this article has been delivered to the reader as discover page.</p>
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Cucinelli, Doriana. "Can speed kill?" Journal of Risk Finance 17, no. 5 (2016): 562–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jrf-03-2016-0035.
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Purpose This study aims to analyze bank lending behavior before and during the most recent financial crisis. Banks are more willing to grant loans during economic expansion. However, this behavior can result in reduced portfolio asset quality. The analysis tries to facilitate understanding of whether this relationship is always true. A second aim of the study is to highlight whether the impact of credit risk on bank lending behavior during a financial crisis is greater for banks that grew faster during the pre-crisis period than for other banks. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on a sample of banks in Italy, an example of a country undergoing a credit crunch without a lending bubble burst. The methodology is based on a panel regression and author uses different models to test his hypothesis: an ordinary least squares, a fixed effect, a least absolute regression and a Generalized Method of Momentum (GMM). This allows to mitigate some of the endogeneity problems. Findings The essay shows that effectively, most of the banks that grew faster during a pre-crisis period show a higher growth of non-performing loans and a greater reduction in lending activity during a financial crisis. However, 34 per cent of banks that grew faster during a pre-crisis period have a low growth of non-performing loans in the subsequent years. Finally, the results suggest that credit risk negatively affects bank lending behavior, but a higher impact relative to fast banks with respect to other banks cannot be emphasized. Practical implications Findings have some policy implications. First, given the adverse effect of the increase of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the bank’s lending activity and on the broad economy in general, there is merit to strengthen supervision to prevent a further increase and accumulation of NPLs in the bank’s credit portfolio. In addition, the supervisors could require that banks take always high credit standard when extend credit, both during positive economic cycle and during period of contraction. The using of higher credit standard could be helpful in the reduction of the pro-cyclicality of bank’s lending behavior and credit risk. Furthermore, the fact that high level of NPLs continues to impact on the bank’s lending activity and that this activity is very important for the economic recovery underlines that banks should clean-up their credit portfolios as soon as possible. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature in various ways. The study analyzes the cyclical effect of credit growth, i.e. banks increase their bank lending behavior during good times, which leads to an increase in bad loans and a high credit risk in their portfolio. These cyclical effects are not knowingly studied together, but the literature usually analyzes the single steps of the cycle. Second, studying listed and unlisted banks allows to have a more representative sample and to analyze better the real bank lending activity considering both commercial than cooperative banks.
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Bandura, Olexander. "The recessions forecasting in real time (case of the USA economy)." Ekonomìčna teorìâ 2024, no. 1 (2024): 76–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/etet2024.01.076.
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This article presents the principles and results of real time forecasting of recessions in the US economy using macroeconomic forecasting models, which has, as the model’s output, a single indicator of general economic activity that can be monitored monthly or at least quarterly: GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index; 2) Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator; 3) Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities; 4) Composite Leading Indicator Index; and 5) Yield Curves Inversion Model. Usually, these models are used in practice by government regulators and business to make their decisions in real time, as they are simple to apply and are updated regularly. However, these models have no sufficient theoretical grounding, therefore it is difficult to define the best model to apply in practice, especially in the case of missed or false signals about impending recession or in the case of various forecasting results obtained from different models. Besides, this paper presents a US economy forecast made using the author’s CMI-model of macroeconomic dynamics, which has all advantages of the above mentioned models, but also has theoretical grounding for its single index of general economic activity that can be updated monthly. According to the CMI-model we may expect a new US recession (in accordance with official NBER methodology of a business cycle dating) at the end of second quarter of 2024. At the same period, we can expect a persistent growth in unemployment. As to the financial sector of US economy, its dynamics for the next few months will depend on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. If Fed starts to decrease Federal Fund rate, one can expect new and significant absolute values (financial bubbles) for key financial indexes. If Fed is not able to reduce Federal Fund rate due to high inflation, financial indexes will possibly hold their high levels in average (or even increase as a result of expectations for the Federal Fund rate reduction or as a result of positive news from individual economic sectors or companies). The development of the financial bubble may continue until statistic data will be able to confirm the start of a new recession that would initiate a huge financial crisis. Obviously, the possible reduction of Federal Fund rate will increase the power of the expected financial crisis. In any case, such a financial crisis, initiated by a new recession, will probably occur in second half of 2024, since the statistics, which reflect the past state of the economy, will continue generating ambiguous signals as to the possibility of a new recession. And only closer to the end of 2024 unambiguous statistical data about the state of economy at the middle of the year will appear. However, the official dating of the recession in NBER terms will be probably done even later. In this case it will be the middle of 2025 or even later. Usually, the deeper the recession is, the easier and earlier it can be dated. To my mind, even if Fed reduces the Federal Fund rate, it may fail to help avoid new recession. Moreover, a significant level of inflation is unlikely to allow a relatively rapid reduction of the discount rate or any other aggressive boost for the economy.
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Wang, Pengfei, and Yi Wen. "Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, no. 3 (2012): 184–221. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.4.3.184.
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Are asset prices unduly volatile and often detached from their fundamentals? Does the bursting of financial bubbles depress the real economy? This paper addresses these issues by constructing a DSGE model with speculative bubbles. We characterize conditions under which storable goods, regardless of their intrinsic values, can carry bubbles, and agents are willing to invest in such bubbles despite their positive probability of bursting. The results show that systemic risk, commonly perceived changes in the bubble's probability of bursting, can generate boom-bust cycles with hump-shaped output dynamics and produce asset price movements many times more volatile than the economy's fundamentals. (JEL E13, E23, E32, E44, G01, G12).
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Meena, Pinki, GD Ransinchung RN, and Praveen Kumar. "A comparative study on life cycle analysis of cold mix and foamed mix asphalt." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1326, no. 1 (2024): 012093. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1326/1/012093.
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Abstract Cold mix asphalt (CM) technology is more sustainable and environmentally friendly than hot mix asphalt (HM) technology. The cold mixtures are prepared with aggregates, asphalt emulsion, and water at ambient temperature. The cold mix is used to achieve economic and ecological benefits but is used to a limited extent due to its low strength and high-water sensitivity. Some additives like Ordinary Portland cement, chemical stabilizers, fibers, cement kiln dust, limestone, and fly ash are added to enhance the strength and stability of cold mix asphalt and reduce the susceptibility to moisture. Foamed mix asphalt (FMA) is a unique pavement construction method for enhancing new granular materials. Cold water and air molecules are injected into the Writgen WLB 10S machine’s bitumen expansion chamber to produce foamed bitumen. When hot bitumen mixes with cold water, foam creates, and bitumen bubbles emerge during the instantaneous foaming process, known as foaming. The bitumen collected in a cylindrical bucket during foaming is known as foamed bitumen, and the foamed bitumen is used as a binder during mix design and has a low viscosity. Fundamental indicators of FMA are (i) expansion ratio and (ii) half-life. This paper reflects the life cycle analysis (LCA) of CM to hot mix based on different parameters like energy consumption and carbon emission in the cradle-to-gate stages incorporating the effects of various foaming agent contents. Also, the LCA method estimates greenhouse gas emissions at different stages of production, transport, and pavement laying at the site. The greenhouse gas emission is responsible for global warming.
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Pichova, Simona, Jan Cernohorsky, Marketa Kacerova, and Jan Zila. "A critique of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank." E+M Ekonomie a Management 26, no. 4 (2023): 134–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2023-4-009.
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The application of quantitative easing tools by certain central banks has been and continues to be the subject of professional debate. Therefore, this paper aims to assess an alternative scenario to the use of quantitative easing. We have used counterfactual analysis to estimate GDP growth in the US and in the Eurozone for the period during which quantitative easing was implemented, i.e., since 2009 in the US and since 2015 in the Eurozone. We used a vector autoregression (VAR) model for the analysis. We concluded that, in retrospect, the use of quantitative easing appears to be unwarranted. While there was slightly higher GDP growth in the Eurozone than there would have been without quantitative easing, there was no smoothing of the economic cycle. At the same time, returning to the inflation target took a relatively long time. In the US, quantitative easing prevented an initial slide into a deep recession and smoothed the economic cycle over the medium term. Overall, however, quantitative easing has mostly had a negative effect. One major negative is that when this instrument is used over a long time period, economic subjects gradually come to see it as a standard tool. Furthermore, inflation, central banks’ main objective, did not rise rapidly over the period in question; on the contrary, over the long term, quantitative easing has become one of the factors behind today’s higher inflation rates. An excessive monetary supply has created imbalances in the financial markets and has been a factor in price bubbles in the stock, bond, and property markets. Last but not least, it has increased moral hazard for governments, which have gone further into debt without difficulty. At the same time, central bank independence was violated, which has caused an abnormal increase in the central banks’ balance sheets. We, therefore, recommend that this unconventional monetary policy instrument should only be used in the short term for emergency situations as a clear central bank response to stabilize the economy.
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Mathur, Dhiraj, Gopalakrishnan Narayanamurthy, and Tuhin Sengupta. "Polymatic plastics & packaging – market deepening versus geography expansion." Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies 12, no. 2 (2022): 1–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/eemcs-02-2021-0043.
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Learning outcomes Learning outcomes are as follows: to understand the need for a small business to expand geographically; to evaluate the business dynamics and challenges faced by an entrepreneur during the business life cycle; and to analyze the geography and create a growth strategy for small business setup in a phase where competition is moving from a moderate to an intense stage. Case overview/synopsis Polymatic Plastics & Packaging (PPP), a proprietorship firm of Mr Shantanu Kalia at Ludhiana, Punjab, India, was formed in 2016 and is involved in the manufacturing of bubble packing and stretch films. Growing business and competition have created both unique challenges as well as propositions for PPP. While growth in business is encouraging Shantanu to secure more contracts for his manufacturing unit, increased competition within Ludhiana is also creating a dilemma to either compete on home turf with USPs ranging from product quality, pricing and superior turn-around-time or explore additional geographies and expand horizontally. Complexity academic level The case is suitable for courses on entrepreneurship and geography strategy in graduate business programs. The case is also suitable for executive program for budding entrepreneurs seeking to explore specific service/product as a potential business proposition and building their business around it. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 3: Entrepreneurship.
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Gracia, Eduard. "Predicting the Unpredictable: Forecastable Bubbles and Business Cycles under Rational Expectations." Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 6, no. 2012-41 (2012): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-41.
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