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1
Hrbková, Veronika. "Analýza současného stavu realitního trhu České republiky a jeho prognóza do roku 2016". Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-162599.
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The goal of this thesis is to analyze the current status of the Czech real estate market and to assess the outlook of the Czech real estate market to year 2016. The analysis will be performed using a strategic outlook as well as a competition benchmark. The prognosis of the future development of the Czech real estate market will be assessed by developing a comprehensive model capturing the development of revenues on the real estate market. From the public policy's point of view, this is a very up-to-date topic to analyze, as the real estate market is an important barometer of economic outlook in any country. The troubles that were brought by the US mortgage crisis have undoubtedly affected the situation on the real estate market in the Czech republic. The theoretical part of this work will characterize used definitions, such as public policy, economic cycle, economic crisis, real estate market, real estate market bubble, mortgage crisis etc. In the analytical part of this work I shall develop a model that captures the development of the Czech real estate market with focus on parameters of realized transactions in the given year and the development of prices. To evaluate the current situation of the market I shall conduct a strategic analysis and the estimated future development will be captured by conducting a regression analysis using historic data to estimate the development to year 2016.
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Kuzmicka, Jolita. "Nekilnojamojo turto rinka Lietuvoje 2000-2010 metais ir jos perspektyvos 2011-2013 metais". Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2012. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2011~D_20120124_134709-59343.
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Nekilnojamo turto (NT) rinka yra visos ekonomikos svarbi sudedamoji dalis. Tai specifinė rinka dėl investicinio prekės pobūdžio ir unikalumo. Šiame darbe apžvelgiama, kas yra turtas, kokia yra rinka, paklausa ir pasiūla, dalyviai bei ciklai, NT rinką įtakojantys veiksniai. Interpretuojama situacija susidariusi NT rinkoje Lietuvoje. Ekonominės sąlygos lemia, kad NT rinka visame pasaulyje pasiekė bumą ir turi pergyventi nuosmukį. Bumas/burbulas – situacija, kai kainos rinkoje formuojamos pirmiausia dėl psichologinių veiksnių ir atitrūksta nuo jas aiškinančių fundamentalių faktorių. Burbulas sprogsta tada, kai investuotojai nebesitiki, kad kainos kils. Tada paklausa sumažėja ir NT rinka krenta žemyn. Nuosmukio pradžia ir viso ciklo trukmė sunkiai prognozuojama. Vidutiniškai NT rinka sugriūna 18 mėnesių iki bankų krizės. Infliacija, palūkanų norma, BVP, investicijų srautai, nuomos kainos, nedarbo lygis, migracija, progresas šalyje, lūkesčiai, poreikiai, informacijos srautas, globalizacija – tai veiksniai, kurie turi įtakos NT rinkos ciklui.
Darbe apžvelgiamos nekilnojamojo turto kainos Lietuvoje per pastaruosius dešimt metų, jų pokyčiai lyginant su praėjusiu laikotarpiu ir su 1998 m. Taip pat yra nagrinėjamos trys veiksnių, turinčių įtakos nekilnojamojo turto kainai, rūšys. Tai demografiniai, makroekonominiai, statybos sektoriaus rodikliai bei nekilnojamojo turto kreditavimas. Lyginami jų pokyčiai per nagrinėjamąjį laikotarpį su nekilnojamojo turto kainomis, taip pat pokyčių... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]Real estate market is important for country’s economics. Real estate’s specific market because it has an investment format and it is unique. In this paper it is reviewed real estate, its market, supply and demand, participants and cycles, indicators. Economics conditions course, that in all the world real estate market has to reach boom and face the recession. Bubble - it is a situation when prices lose a touch with fundamental bias because of the philological factors. Bubble collapse when investors think that prices will not increase anymore and demand reduce. It is difficult to forecast the start of the collapse and the length of the cycle. In the average after the collapse of real estate market in 18 months there is crisis of banks. There are many factors which are important for real estate cycle like inflation, interest and mortgage rate, GDP, investment flows, rent and unemployment rate, migration, progress in the country, expectations, media, and globalization. Real estate prices within past ten years in Lithuania and their changes compared with last period and the year 1998 are overviewed in this work. Also three kinds of factors that have influence on the real estate prices are analyzed. They are exponents of demography, macro economics and construction sector and real estate crediting. Changes in ten years period are compared with the changes of real estate prices and the reasons also. The real estate price’s crisis ant it’s causes are examined. The forecast for... [to full text]
3
Bloxham, Matthew Jon. "The effects of vortex generator jet frequency, duty cycle, and phase on separation bubble dynamics /". Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2007. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd1760.pdf.
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Bloxham, Matthew J. "The Effects of Vortex Generator Jet Frequency, Duty Cycle, and Phase on Separation Bubble Dynamics". BYU ScholarsArchive, 2007. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/827.
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Vortex generator jets (VGJs) have proven to be effective in minimizing the separation losses on low-pressure turbine blades at low Reynolds numbers. Experimental data collected using phase-locked particle image velocimetry and substantiated with a hot-film anemometer were used to answer fundamental questions about the influence of VGJs on a separated boundary layer. The data were collected on the suction surface of the Pack B blade profile, which has a non-reattaching separation bubble beginning at 68% axial chord. Two VGJ pulse histories were created with different frequencies, jet durations, and duty cycles. The mechanisms responsible for boundary layer separation control were shown to be a combination of boundary layer transition and streamwise vortical structures. Jet duration and relaxation time were important VGJ characteristics in determining the extent of control. The unsteady environment characterisitic of the low-pressure turbine section in a gas turbine engine effectively reduces the time-averaged separation zone by as much as 35%. Upstream blade rows create unsteady flow disturbances (wakes) that transition the flow. This transitioned flow propagates downstream, re-attaching the separation bubbles on the subsequent blade row. Phase-locked PIV and hot-film measurements were used to document the characteristics of this separation zone when subjected to synchronized unsteady wakes and VGJs. The phase difference between VGJ actuation and the wake passing, blowing ratio, and VGJ duration were optimized to achieve the greatest time-averaged control of the separation zone. The experimental data were used to identify the important characteristics of the wake/jet interaction. Phase-locked PIV measurements were taken to isolate the wake event (wake only), the VGJ event (jets only), and the synchronized combination of unsteady wakes and jets. The synchronized conditions achieved maximum separation bubble control. The presence of wake and jet induced calmed zones are also noted.
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Rose, Elliot P. "Environmentally conscious design : an economic life cycle approach". Thesis, Cranfield University, 1997. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/3507.
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Companies are under increasing pressure to deal with environmental concerns during product design, for it is the design process which primarily decides the environmental impact of a manufactured product over its life. Tools which assist in taking a life cycle view of the product are a necessary support to designers. Prime amongst these tools is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). However, a major criticism of LCA methodologies is that while they provide advice on environmentally superior product designs, they do not provide guidance on the economic impact. With product take back increasingly likely to become the responsibility of producer companies attention is now being paid to the later phases of a products life, such as maintenance and disposal costs. A new methodology is shown to be required to complement LCA, one which considers the economic implications of environmentally superior designs over the whole product life. It is argued that a major challenge of such a methodology will be how it deals with the uncertainty associated with the future. The research provides a review of product life cycle design methodologies and a critique of existing approaches to uncertainty. A design teams requirements for decision support that deals with product economic life cycle uncertainty is presented and a decision support methodology which meets these requirements is described. The methodology builds upon the theory of life cycle costing. In practice, the methodology integrates a computer based life cycle model with statistical techniques to quantify the contribution of life cycle variables. In bringing these proven but previously separate tools together the method resolves the issue of uncertainty in a novel and acceptable way. Through the use of an in-depth industrial case study, it is shown that the methodology provides practical support to the design team to produce economically superior product life cycle designs.
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Bollmann, Chad A. (Chad Arnold) 1974. "Optimization of DUPIC cycle environmental and economic performance". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/45495.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Engineering; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1998.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 109-111).
A study of the DUPIC (Direct Use of Spent PWR Fuel In CANDU) cycle was made to analyze cycle performance relative to that of PWR and CANDU fuel cycles in terms of uranium utilization and spent fuel production efficiency. The DUPIC cycle was found to be most efficient in terms of minimizing spent fuel production as well as most efficient (within limits) in terms of maximizing natural uranium utilization. It was found minimally productive to change PWR fuel management practices in order to extend burnup in the CANDU portion of the cycle. A policy analysis regarding potential implementation of the DUPIC cycle in North America, between the U.S. and Canada, was also made. CASMO computer models of PWR, CANDU, and CANFLEX fuel assemblies were created and benchmarked. The PWR models were then used to develop analytical correlations that predict PWR spent fuel isotopic compositions. Correlations that predict reactivity gain and burnup increase in CANDU reactors due to AIROX processing of PWR spent fuel were created. An estimate of fission product removal fractions during AIROX processing was developed. An integrated model that predicts CANDU discharge burnup extension due to the use of spent PWR fuel and AIROX processing was completed and used to analyze and compare the DUPIC cycle to other fuel cycles. The potential issues involved in implementation of a DUPIC cycle between the U.S. and Canada were examined. Stakeholders and influential groups were identified and their values were projected. A significant unresolved issue centers around which nation assumes custody of the DUPIC spent fuel and the disposal costs of that fuel. A plan for DUPIC cycle implementation was developed.
by Chad A. Bollmann.
S.M.
7
Whittle, Richard Robert. "The relevance of Hayek's theory of the trade cycle for understanding the United Kingdom business cycle". Thesis, Keele University, 2016. http://eprints.keele.ac.uk/3273/.
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The ‘Great Recession’ has brought about a justified critique of the neoclassical economic model. It is within the context of this shock to the mainstream that the economic orthodoxy can be queried. The calls for a new economic paradigm request the mainstream’s acceptance of heterodox ideas creating a pluralist approach to economic theory, research and teaching. Following the shock of the financial crisis, UK government economic institutions indeed appear more pluralist than before the crisis. The Bank of England’s One Bank Research Agenda (2015) aims to remove its institutional ‘group think’ to incorporate different economic perspectives to better allow its efficient monitoring of the UK economy. Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs have embraced pluralist economics, Senior Ministerial Advisors within HMRC learn Behavioural Economics, the work of Hyman Minsky, Jesus de Soto and Fredrich Hayek alongside neoclassical economics and fiscal sociology to gain a thorough understanding of economic phenomena. Andy Haldane, Director of Financial Stability at the Bank of England, has called for a pluralist economic methodology and in 2010, Conservative MPs proposed a Financial Services Bill based on the work of Hayek. Given this willingness for Policy at least to accept a pluralist economic approach, alternative economic theories must be evaluated to determine their relevance. Calls for a pluralist economic paradigm do not simply seek to replace one orthodoxy with another or indeed abandon entirely neoclassical economics. A pluralist economic paradigm is one where numerous explanations of economic phenomena are considered and policy is based on the most appropriate rather than the default. The thesis contributes to knowledge by providing an evaluation of Hayek’s theory of the trade cycle using a testable model and both reduced form and structural analysis, this is the first time this has been explicitly done addressing the shortfall in the literature identified in Kuehn (2013). Furthermore the thesis provides a consideration of the relevance of Hayek’s theory of the trade cycle for the UK addressing this gap in the Austrian Empirical Literature. The chosen analysis of a variety of models and tests also contributes to the Austrian methodological literature providing a comprehensive approach to the evaluation of Hayek’s theory. The UK data used for the empirical evaluation does not feature in any of the reviewed literature and thus its use represents a further contribution toward the UK gap in the Austrian Econometric Literature. An empirical evaluation of Hayek’s theory of the trade cycle using UK timeseries data contributes to the pluralist debate by determining the relevance of the theory for future policy consideration. A testable model of Hayek’s theory is developed and examined with various econometric tests to determine the support present in the data. Primarily Vector-Auto Regression, Vector Error Correction and Granger Causality Tests were used in the evaluation alongside Finite-Distributed Lag Models and an initial statistical evaluation of the theory and data. Within the calls for pluralism all empirical evaluation is conducted in a manner acceptable to the majority of Hayekian economists, yet utilising standard econometric tests to provide a persuasive and universally accessible evaluation of the theory. Whilst some evidence for Hayek’s theory of the trade cycle is found, the results show strong support for individual components of the theory, but limited support for the central tenet of the Theory, that of the unsustainable boom sowing the seeds of its own destruction. Yet, evidence is found for the predicted effects of the interest rate and of predicted endogenous turning points in the data, which are seen by several Austrian economists to be unique features of Hayek’s theory. A replication study of a key empirical study supporting Hayek’s theory with US timeseries data is also conducted with UK data, finding less support for the theory than its US counterpart. Given the calls for a pluralist economic paradigm, perhaps it is time to isolate the valid components of Hayek’s theory and incorporate them with other heterodox and orthodox theories. After all a true pluralist paradigm does not mean the primacy of a single approach.
8
Huang, Ye. "The behaviour of coal-fired pressurized fluidised bed combustion systems". Thesis, University of Ulster, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.284834.
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Richko, Rebecca L. "Social and Economic Factors Influencing Japanese Women's Decision about Childbearing in Post-Bubble Japan". FIU Digital Commons, 2016. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/2451.
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For the past twenty-five years, Japan’s population decline has been a domestic and global concern. A common discourse on the issue of Japan’s low birth rate tends to focus on the role of women, specifically indicating that women should change their behavior to prioritize motherhood. This thesis argues that Japan’s low birth rate is the result of a nexus of social and economic influences that are experienced in contemporary society. In order to provide a nuanced analysis of the influences on a woman’s childbearing decision, motivators of and challenges to population growth will be explored. The dynamic struggle that women experience from the internalized stress of deciding about childbearing while coping with external factors from the community, government, and corporate sector is divided into four categories. The conditions caused by the interaction of these different factors contributes to consistent decline in the birth rate.
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Li, Linyu. "Economic growth in Sweden, 2000-2010 : The dot-com bubble and the financial crisis". Thesis, Högskolan Dalarna, Nationalekonomi, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-14883.
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Economic growth is the increase in the inflation-adjusted market value of the goods and services produced by an economy over time. The total output is the quantity of goods or servicesproduced in a given time period within a country. Sweden was affected by two crises during the period 2000-2010: a dot-com bubble and a financial crisis. How did these two crises affect the economic growth? The changes of domestic output can be separated into four parts: changes in intermediate demand, final domestic demand, export demand and import substitution. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the economic growth during the period 2000-2010, with focus on the dot-com bubble in the beginning of the period 2000-2005, and the financial crisis at the end of the period 2005-2010. The methodology to be used is the structural decomposition method. This investigation shows that the main contributions to the Swedish total domestic output increase in both the period 2000-2005 and the period 2005-2010 were the effect of domestic demand. In the period 2005-2010, financial crisis weakened the effect of export. The output of the primary sector went from a negative change into a positive, explained mainly by strong export expansion. In the secondary sector, export had most effect in the period 2000-2005. Nevertheless, domestic demand and import ratio had more effect during the financial crisis period. Lastly, in the tertiary sector, domestic demand can mainly explain the output growth in the whole period 2000-2010.
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Mendicino, Caterina. "Financial market imperfections, business cycle fluctuations and economic growth". Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Economic Research Institute (EFI), Stockholm School of Economics, 2006. http://www2.hhs.se/EFI/summary/705.htm.
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Betelmal, Entesar Hassan. "Thermo-economic study of gas turbine-absorption cogeneration cycle". Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.417545.
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Garavito, Cecilia. "Housework in Peru: Working Transitions, Education and Economic Cycle". Economía, 2017. http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/118233.
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The aim of this work is to analyze the transitions from paid housework toward other occupations, unemployment and inactivity, and the determinants of these transitions. We use the panel data from the ENAHO for the periods 1998-2002, 2002-2006, and 2007-2011. After a detailed descriptive analysis of partial and complete panels, we find that around one third of the paid house-workers stay in this occupation while a similar percentage moves to independent work or low productivity salaried work. After estimating the transitions from paid housework to other occupations, and to inactivity, we find that a higher level of education is always related to a transition toward another occupation, although in the case of paid house-workers it is usually toward independent labor. Finally, transitions from paid housework to other occupations or inactivity depend on the economic cycle, although the marginal effects are lower for them than for women in general.El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar las transiciones desde el trabajo del hogar remunerado hacia otras ocupaciones, el desempleo y la inactividad, así como los determinantes de estas transiciones.Para ello empleamos los datos panel de la ENAHO para los periodos 1998-2002, 2002-2006 y 2007-2011. Luego de un análisis detallado de las transiciones parciales y totales de cada panel, encontramos que alrededor de un tercio de las trabajadoras del hogar se quedan en la misma ocupación y que un porcentaje similar pasa a al trabajo independiente o a ocupaciones asalariadas de baja productividad. Al estimar los determinantes de las transiciones desde el trabajo del hogar remunerado hacia otras ocupaciones y hacia la inactividad, encontramos que un mayor nivel de educación está asociado a una salida hacia otra ocupación, si bien en el caso de las trabajadoras del hogar usualmente es hacia el trabajo independiente. Finalmente, las transiciones desde el trabajodel hogar remunerado hacia otros empleos o hacia la inactividad dependen del ciclo económico, si bien los efectos marginales son menores que en el caso de las mujeres en general.
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Crespo, Raul. "A business cycle study of the Venezuelan economy". Thesis, University of Bristol, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.272043.
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Cha, Myung Soo. "The international trade cycle, 1885-1896". Thesis, University of Warwick, 1988. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/98789/.
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This study, aiming to explain the synchronisation of the national trade cycles in pre-WWI years, begins with a review of trade cycle theories. The pattern of international trade cycles in 1870-1914 are then examined and their structures discussed: the US and German home investment and British overseas lending are found to form major initial cyclical shocks. The short term fluctuations in the US and German domestic capital formation in pre-1914 period are shown to be closely related to technological development such as railways and electricity; the shifts in both the push of British home investment and savings conditions and the pull of capital importing regions are held responsible for the cyclical variations in British foreign investment. Cyclical patterns identified in money stocks of various countries are argued to result mainly from procyclical shifts in demand for money. Focusing then our attention upon the course of one international trade cycle in 1885-1896 in the US, Germany, Britain and Argentina, we find that the international upswing in the latter half of the 1880s was initiated by the start of railway building boom in the US as a consequence of the improvement in railway profitability due to agricultural development around the railways built during the previous boom in western states such as Kansas and Nebraska; the termination of largely British-financed Argentine railway construction boom due to overbuilding played an important role in triggering the world-wide depression in the early 1890s. These initial disturbances seemed to be diffused throughout the world mainly via trade and psychological channels. In contrast, it is demonstrated that international gold flows were not translated into significant monetary shocks, since banking systems were able to vary in a flexible manner supply of deposits according to demand; nor did financial crises, tending to break out after the downturn in the level of activity, seem to constitute major channels of transmission of cyclical shocks. As to the relevance of various types of trade cycle theories to the explanation of the cyclical experiences in the ten-odd years concerned, it is therefore concluded that the fluctuations in cyclical origins, e.g. US and Argentina, can largely be understood in the context of Schumpeterian theory of innovation; that although the shifts in expectations were not so purely autonomous as Keynes thought, they played important parts in the transmission of cyclical shocks from the origins to Germany and Britain; that Hicksian full employment ceiling did not seem to develop in any of the four countries, which was probably to a great extent due to relatively free international trade and factor mobility; that weak multiplier- accelerator model kept alive by random shocks captures essential aspects of the pre-1914 British trade cycles; finally that monetary disturbances, such as gold flows and financial crises, did not appear important in either creating or transmitting cyclical forces.
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Virgen, Matthew Miguel. "Comparison of water boiling models against recent experimental data, with special emphasis on the bubble ebullition cycle". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76939.
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Thesis (S.B.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 37).
Using recently collected data which was measured with state-of-the-art techniques, models for nucleation site density, bubble departure diameter, and nucleation frequency were compared against the acquired data. The particular focus of this work is on the ebullition cycle and associated bubble nucleation frequency, looking at the models proposed by M.Z. Podowski. In my analysis, I took the average values for the growth and dwell times directly from the data, rather than from the models for those parameters. The results of those investigations showed that the basic principles approach for considering the parameters of the ebullition cycle held up pretty well with the experimental data, with Ti(t), the temperature curve during the ebullition cycle, corresponding remarkably well with the data curves. However, one parameter which was always overvalued was T(0*) - the predicted temperature of the start of the dwell phase. It was generally 1-2 degrees Celsius higher than the experimental value. For a fully rigorous analysis of the ebullition models in future works, it is recommended that all parameters be predicted rather than pulled from the data, particularly of the growth and dwell times.
by Matthew Miguel Virgen.
S.B.
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Mise, Emi. "Time series decompostion and business cycle analysis". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.247129.
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Stolzenburg, Ulrich [Verfasser]. "Essays on Economic Growth and Business Cycle Dynamics / Ulrich Stolzenburg". Kiel : Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1068504005/34.
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Bielschowsky, Ricardo. "Brazilian economic thought (1945-1964) : the ideological cycle of developmentalism". Thesis, University of Leicester, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/35469.
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This work contains an exposition and analysis of Brazilian economic thought as found in books, specialized periodicals in the field of economics, and governmental writings between 1945 and 1964. A systematization of that thought is offered along with a reproduction of the debates held between the distinct currents of economic thought within the country. The economic thought covered herein has been politically engaged in the discussion of the Brazilian process of industrialization. The key organizing concept that gives unity to our account is that of "developmentalism", seen as the ideology of transforming Brazilian society through an economic project of state-supported industrialization as a way to overcome underdevelopment. In the introductory section and serving as a link between economic theory and Brazilian thinking, an exposition is made of the basic elements of ECLA'S analysis, which served as the major theoretical support to the opposition to liberalism in Brazil. The main body of the work is divided into two parts. In Part I a description is made of the essential features of the five major currents of thought found in the period covered by this study, i.e., three variables of developmentalism (private sector, "non-nationalist" public sector, and "nationalist" public sector), neo-liberalism (to the "right" of developmentalism), and the socialist current (to its "left"). In each current of thought emphasis is given to the work of their most representative economists, with special reference to the thought of Eugenio Guidin, Roberto Simonsen, Roberto Campos and Celso Furtado. A chapter is added to cover Ignacio Rangel's thinking. In Part II of the work an account is given of the evolution of the developmentalist controversy and an assessment is made of its historical determinants. For that purpose, a periodization has been selected on the basis of the movement of economic ideas. The key concept adopted, i.e. the idea of an "idealogical cycle of developmentalism", as well as the entire organization of the text, aim to explain the historical significance of Brazilian economic thought in its connections with the movement of Brazilian history itself.
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Stanca, Luca. "Business cycle asymmetries and the financial propagation mechanism". Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1999. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1506/.
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This dissertation presents the results of an investigation into the nature and causes of aggregate economic fluctuations. It comprises four essays, analysing the following topics: - Chapter 1 investigates the main features of business cycles in Italy in historical perspective (1861-1995). The essay reconsiders the assumption that business cycles are all alike, complementing the search for time domain regularities with a classical analysis of individual cycles and phases. It also provides formal tests, for ten industrialized countries, of various aspects of the representative cycle hypothesis. The results show that there is substantial heterogeneity in individual cycles and phases in terms of duration, amplitude, and co-movements between variables, and that such heterogeneity is generally statistically significant. - Chapter 2 reports the results of an empirical investigation of business cycle asymmetries in the Italian economy. Macroeconomic time series, both long run annual and post-war quarterly, are investigated to test for the presence of non-linearity and cyclical asymmetry. The dynamics of recessions and expansions are then modelled with threshold autoregressive and Markov-switching models. The essay shows that allowing for two regimes can be sufficient to account for the finding of neglected non-linearity, and concludes that business cycle asymmetries provide both an intuitive economic interpretation and a parsimonious representation of non-linearities in macroeconomic time series. - Chapter 3 applies models of explicit distribution dynamics to company account data for a panel of U.S. manufacturing firms, to investigate the dynamics of the cross-section distribution of firms' financial positions and its interactions with aggregate activity. The dynamics of different parts of the leverage distribution are found to contain significant predictive information for aggregate investment growth. The distribution dynamics reveal substantial intra-distribution mobility, although there is little evidence of significant interactions with aggregate economic activity. Intra-distribution mobility is higher for small than for large firms, and displays asymmetric patterns across business cycle phases. - Chapter 4 investigates the dynamic interaction between financial conditions and investment decisions by estimating and testing vector autoregressions on company account panel data for U.S. manufacturing firms. The results show that indicators of liquidity and solvency contain significant predictive information for investment at firm level. There is also evidence of both sectional and time heterogeneity: the role played by financial factors is significantly more important for highly leveraged than for low-debt firms; capital market frictions are shown to have asymmetric effects, displaying a larger impact in contractions than in expansions. Overall, the evidence supports the hypothesis that capital market imperfections have an important role in explaining aggregate cyclical dynamics.
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Fernandez, Telleria Bernardo Xavier. "Essays on real business cycle modelling under adaptive learning". Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2013. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/4216/.
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The thesis consists on three chapters aiming to contribute to a growing literature on adaptive learning, a form of bounded rationality that has been attracting increasing interest both in the theoretical and practical fields, as an alternative to the commonly used rational expectations hypothesis on how expectations are formed among economic agents. The first chapter investigates whether it is possible to improve the ability of the standard real business cycle model to match the main stylised facts of emerging economies, taking the case of Mexico as an illustration, by assuming that agents are not fully rational and instead form expectations according to an adaptive learning rule. Two well-known rules - recursive least squares and its constant gain variant - are considered for this purpose. The degree of difficulty of the learning process is characterised by different starting values of the algorithms as well as different constant gains. The simulations show that the model under learning generally outperforms its rational expectations counterpart. Therefore, policymakers should take into account the fact that the expected welfare gains/losses of a particular policy reform, conceived assuming a fully-rational environment, might be significantly different if, in practice, agents behave as learners. Using a heterogeneous-agent model with three types of agents, namely capitalists, skilled workers and unskilled workers - assuming constant population shares suggesting low social mobility -, and allowing for different degrees of complementarity among these within the productive structure, the second chapter welfare-evaluates tax reforms consistent with a lower long run debt-to-output ratio for the United Kingdom, both under rational expectations and heterogenous learning. This chapter shows that, relative to the other tax reforms, capital tax cuts lead to the highest aggregate welfare but are skill-biased and can thus increase inequality in the long run. That is, depending on the elasticity of substitution between capital and unskilled labour, falls in the capital tax can result in higher levels of welfare inequality, even in the absence of other frictions and increases in other forms of taxation. On the other hand, reductions in labour taxes can hurt the capitalists. This chapter shows too that including the transition period in the welfare evaluation lowers the inequality effects of capital tax reductions since the complementarity between capital and all labour inputs is higher in the short- than in the long-run. Finally, while heterogeneous learning in the shape of differing initial beliefs after the reform can lead to a form of "irrational exuberance" after a tax cut, it can also exacerbate welfare inequality. Finally, the third chapter presents an heterogeneous-agent model with two types of agents, capitalists and workers - with constant population shares given the strong evidence on low social mobility -, calibrated to Bolivia´s data in order to examine the short and long-run effectiveness and distributional effects of various fiscal rules designed to impose restrictions on the evolution of public debt as a share of output, in response to two different sources of exogenous volatility (i.e. productivity and commodity shocks) and under different ways of forming expectations, namely rational expectations and heterogenous learning. The results show that under full rationality the fiscal rules generate a trade-off between debt-stabilisation and higher income inequality while, under some conditions, heterogenous learning can help to break such trade-off so that some of the rules can perform well in both fields. However, given the significantly high levels of income inequality and dependence on commodity revenues experienced by Bolivia, finding the best performing rule in response to all the relevant exogenous shocks this economy might face, appears to be a challenging task.
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Albers, Thilo Nils Hendrik. "Trade frictions, trade policies, and the interwar business cycle". Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2018. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/3840/.
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This dissertation is composed of six chapters. Based on a comparison with other recessions throughout history, the first chapter motivates studying the Great Depression from a trade perspective. The second chapter sets the stage for such an endeavour. It introduces a new macroeconomic dataset for the interwar period and investigates the prelude and global impact of the Great Depression. Highlighting the variation of its severity along two dimensions, depth and duration, within and across countries, it conjectures that trade must have played an important role for the global extent of the crisis. The third chapter tests this conjecture by resurrecting the concept of the trade multiplier. Based on a causal estimate of the multiplier and auxiliary data, it demonstrates that the trade channel can explain significant proportions of the initial depth of the Depression in small open economies. If the fall of trade was important for propagating the Depression, analysing trade frictions is imperative. The fourth chapter thus turns to the analysis of retaliatory trade policies in response to currency devaluations. It shows that tariff retaliation was an important feature of interwar protectionism. Its effects on trade were large, which casts doubts on the unqualified favourable assessment of unilateral currency depreciations. Relating to the literature on the post-war distance puzzle, the fifth chapter assesses the relative importance of tariffs and transport costs during the interwar period. Not only were tariffs the dominant trade friction during this period, but their increase rendered distancerelated trade costs relatively less important. Finally, the sixth chapter draws implications for the academic and political discourse.
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Sieti, Natalia. "Life cycle environmental and economic sustainability in the baby food sector". Thesis, University of Manchester, 2018. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/life-cycle-environmental-and-economic-sustainability-in-the-baby-food-sector(f098fc2e-6148-443c-b374-16fb506730d3).html.
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This research addresses life cycle environmental and economic sustainability in the baby food sector. In the UK, this sector has been growing rapidly, expanding by around 30% between 2009 and 2014, by which time it was worth an estimated £181 million per year. This growth sits within a context of high emissions from the food sector: in 2015, UK net GHG emissions were estimated to be 496 million tonnes (Mt) and the domestic food chain was responsible for 115 Mt CO2 eq. emissions. However, within this overall food chain, very little is known about the sustainability of the baby food sector, with almost no prior literature in the area. The research presented here begins with market research to identify the characteristics of products available in the ready-made food market, in which wet and dry products in jars and pouches dominate sales. Subsequently, 12 representative products are selected from those available on the market and each is assessed in detail to establish its environmental and economic impacts using life cycle assessment (LCA), life cycle costing (LCC) and value added (VA) assessment. The findings of these product-level assessments are then compared to home-made equivalents and finally scaled up according to sales volumes to provide an overall view of the baby food sector as a whole. Wet and dry variants of ready-made porridge products are assessed first as the most commonly consumed breakfast option. The dry product is shown to have 5%-70% the impacts of the wet, on average, and the importance of product formulation is clear: for dry porridge, reformulation could reduce impacts by up to 67%. For the wet porridge, switching from glass jars to plastic pouches is also shown to decrease impacts by up to 89%. Assessment of 11 wet ready-made products demonstrates that the highest impacts are found in spaghetti Bolognese and salmon risotto, and that raw materials are the major hotspot of the life cycle, contributing 12-69%, followed by manufacturing at 2-49%. When combined into a range of weekly diets limited differences are observed between diets, except in cases where dairy-free diets result in compensatory increases in meat consumption. When the aforementioned selection of ready-made products is compared to its home-made equivalent, the home-made options are shown to have lower impacts by 50% to 17 times. This is due to the avoidance of manufacturing and extra packaging stages, as well as shorter supply chains resulting in less waste overall. At the product level, the LCC of ready-made meals ranges from £0.08 to £0.26 per 125 g product, compared to £0.02-£0.20 for the home-made equivalents. Value added is, on average, approximately four times higher for ready-made meals than homemade, illustrating the potential profit of the sector. Annually, the ready-made baby food sector has an LCC of £40m and carbon footprint of 109 kt CO2 eq. This carbon footprint represents only 0.1% of the UK food and drinks sector. The results of this research show that considerable improvements can be made to the environmental and economic sustainability of baby foods, both ready- and homemade, while home-made options tend to have lower costs and environmental impacts. The outputs provide benchmarking and improvement opportunities for industry and government, as well as insight for consumers.
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Rosso, Stefano. "Power Plant Operation Optimization Economic dispatch of combined cycle power plants". Thesis, KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-264350.
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As electricity production from renewable sources increases, higher flexibility is required by fossil fuel generation to cope with the inherent fluctuations of solar and wind power. This results in shorter operating cycles and steeper ramps for the turbines, and more uncertainty for the operators. This thesis work applies mathematical optimization and statistical learning to improve the economic dispatch of a combined cycle power plant composed by two separate blocks of two gas turbines and one steam turbine. The goal is to minimize the input fuel to the gas turbines while respecting a series of constraints related to the demand the plant faces, power generation limits etc. This is achieved through the creation of a mathematical model of the plant that regulates how the plant can operate. The model is then optimized to reduce fuel consumption at a minimum. Machine learning techniques have been applied to sensor data from the plant itself to realistically simulate the behavior of the turbines. Input-Output curves have been obtained for power and exhaust heat generation of all the turbines using ordinary least squares on monthly data with a ten minutes sampling rate. The model is cross-validated and proven statistically valid. The optimization problem is formulated through generalized disjunctive programming in the form of a mixed-integer linear problem (MILP) and solved using a branch-and-bound algorithm. The output of the model is a one-week dispatch, in fifteen minutes intervals, carried out for two months in total. Lower fuel consumption is achieved using the optimization model, with a weekly reduction of fuel consumed in the range of 2-4%. A sensitivity analysis and a correlation matrix are used to highlights the demand and the maximum available capacity as critical parameters. Results show that the most efficient machines (alternatively, the ones with highest available capacity) should be operated at maximum load while still striving for an efficient utilization of the exhaust gas.När elproduktionen från förnybara källor ökar krävs högre flexibilitet av fossil bränsleproduktion för att hantera fluktuationerna från sol- och vindkraft. Detta resulterar i kortare driftscykler och brantare ramper för turbinerna och mer osäkerhet för operatörerna. Detta avhandlingsarbete tillämpar matematisk optimering och statistisk inlärning för att förbättra det ekonomiska utnyttjandet av en kombicykel i ett kraftverk som består av två separata block med två gasturbiner och en ångturbin. Målet är att minimera bränsleförbrukningen hos gasturbinerna samtidigt som man tar hänsyn till en serie av villkor relaterade till efterfrågan som anläggningen står inför, kraftproduktionsbegränsningar etc. Detta uppnås genom skapandet av en matematisk modell för anläggningen som reglerar hur anläggningen kan fungera. Modellen är sedan optimerad för minsta möjliga bränsleförbrukning. Maskinteknik har använts på sensor data från själva anläggningen för att realistiskt simulera turbinernas beteende. In och utdata kurvor har erhållits för kraftproduktion och avgasvärmeproduktion med hjälp av ordinary least squares (OLS) med månads data och med en tio minuters samplingshastighet. Modellen är korsvaliderad och bevisad statistiskt giltig. Optimeringsproblemet formuleras genom en generaliserad disjunktiv programmering i form av ett mixed-integer linear problem (MILP) och löses med hjälp av en Branch-and-Bound algoritm. Resultatet från modellen är en veckas värden, med femton minuters intervall, totalt i två månader. Lägre bränsleförbrukning uppnås med hjälp av optimeringsmodellen, med en vecka minskad bränsleförbrukning i intervallet 2-4%. En känslighetsanalys och en korrelationsmatris används för att visa efterfrågan och den maximala tillgängliga kapaciteten som kritiska parametrar. Resultaten visar att de mest effektiva maskinerna (alternativt de med högsta tillgängliga kapacitet) bör drivas med maximal belastning medan de fortfarande strävar efter ett effektivt utnyttjande av avgaserna.
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Bhatt, Dhruv. "Economic Dispatch of the Combined Cycle Power Plant Using Machine Learning". Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-266110.
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Combined Cycle Power Plant (CCPP)s play a key role in modern powersystem due to their lesser investment cost, lower project executiontime, and higher operational flexibility compared to other conventionalgenerating assets. The nature of generation system is changing withever increasing penetration of the renewable energy resources. Whatwas once a clearly defined generation, transmission, and distributionflow is shifting towards fluctuating distribution generation. Because ofvariation in energy production from the renewable energy resources,CCPP are increasingly required to vary their load levels to keep balancebetween supply and demand within the system. CCPP are facingmore number of start cycles. This induces more stress on the gas turbineand as a result, maintenance intervals are affected.The aim of this master thesis project is to develop a dispatch algorithmfor the short-term operation planning for a combined cyclepower plant which also includes the long-term constraints. The longtermconstraints govern the maintenance interval of the gas turbines.These long-term constraints are defined over number of EquivalentOperating Hours (EOH) and Equivalent Operating Cycles (EOC) forthe Gas Turbine (GT) under consideration. CCPP is operating in theopen electricity market. It consists of two SGT-800 GT and one SST-600 Steam Turbine (ST). The primary goal of this thesis is to maximizethe overall profit of CCPP under consideration. The secondary goal ofthis thesis it to develop the meta models to estimate consumed EOHand EOC during the planning period.Siemens Industrial Turbo-machinery AB (SIT AB) has installed sensorsthat collects the data from the GT. Machine learning techniqueshave been applied to sensor data from the plant to construct Input-Output (I/O) curves to estimate heat input and exhaust heat. Resultsshow potential saving in the fuel consumption for the limit on CumulativeEquivalent Operating Hours (CEOH) and Cumulative EquivalentOperating Cycles (CEOC) for the planning period. However, italso highlighted some crucial areas of improvement before this economicdispatch algorithm can be commercialized.Kombicykelkraftverk spelar en nyckelroll i det moderna elsystemet pågrund av den låga investeringskostnaden, den korta tiden för att byggaett nytta kraftverk och hög flexibilitet jämfört med andra kraftverk.Elproduktionssystemen förändras i takt med en allt större andel förnybarelproduktion. Det som en gång var ett tydligt definierat flödefrån produktion via transmission till distribution ändrar nu karaktärtill fluktuerande, distribuerad generering. På grund av variationernai elproduktion från förnybara energikällor finns ett ökat behov avatt kombicykelkraftverk varierar sin elproduktion för att upprätthållabalansen mellan produktion och konsumtion i systemet. Kombicykelkraftverkbehöver startas och stoppas oftare. Detta medför mer stresspå gasturbinen och som ett resultat påverkas underhållsintervallerna.Syftet med detta examensarbete är att utveckla en algoritm för korttidsplaneringav ett kombicykelkraftverk där även driften på lång siktbeaktas. Begränsningarna på lång sikt utgår från underhållsintervallenför gasturbinerna. Dessa långsiktiga begränsningar definieras som antaletekvivalenta drifttimmar och ekvivalenta driftcykler för det aktuellakraftverket. Kombikraftverket drivs på den öppna elmarknaden.Det består av två SGT-800 GT och en SST-600 ångturbin. Det främstamålet med examensarbetet är att maximera den totala vinsten förkraftverket. Ett sekundärt mål är att utveckla metamodeller för attskatta använda ekvivalenta drifttimmar och ekvivalenta driftcyklerunder planeringsperioden.Siemens Industrial Turbo-machinery AB (SIT AB) har installeratsensorer som samlar in data från gasturbinerna. Maskininlärningsteknikerhar tillämpats på sensordata för att konstruera kurvor för attuppskatta värmetillförseln och avgasvärme. Resultaten visar en potentiellbesparing i bränsleförbrukningen om de sammanlagda ekvivalentadrifttimmarna och de sammanlagda ekvivalenta driftcyklernabegränsas under planeringsperioden. Det framhålls dock också att detfinns viktiga förbättringar som behövs innan korttidsplaneringsalgoritmenkan kommersialiseras.
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Boianovsky, Mauro. "Wicksell and the business cycle : studies in macroeconomics before Keynes". Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.388757.
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Jannsen, Nils [Verfasser]. "Severe Economic Crises and the Business Cycle - An Empirical Analysis / Nils Jannsen". Kiel : Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1023681315/34.
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Karlsson, Martina, e Helen Orselius. "Economic and Business cycle indicators : Accuracy, reliability and consistency of Swedish indicators". Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Economics, Finance and Statistics, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-24031.
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Background: Economic and Business cycle indicators are used when predicting a country’s Gross Domestic Products, GDP. During recent time, Purchasing Managers Index and its ability to signal changes in the economy have received attention. It provides inconsistent signals since the financial crisis in 2008. Decision makers in the society rely on macroeconomic forecast when implementing strategic decisions. It is therefore necessary for indicators to provide correct signals in relation to GDP. Previous research about indicators’ stability is mostly conducted in the U.S. According to the authors’ knowledge, scarce research has been made in Sweden. The area lacks observations where a wider range of indicators is included to get a broader perspective of the economy. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine Swedish indicators and observe if they are stable and provide accurate, reliable and consistent signals in relation to GDP growth. Furthermore, the financial crisis in 2008 is used as a benchmark when observing stability and indicators’ predictive ability. Method: Ten indicators within the categories financial, survey-based and real economy indicators are selected. Quarterly data with a time period of maximum 1993-2013 are analyzed. The statistical tests conducted include Correlation, Cross-Correlation and Simple Linear Regression, an interaction term is also included to account for the financial crisis. Conclusion: The results show that nine out of ten indicators are unstable. Purchasing Managers Index show largest changes compared to other indicators. Industry Production index is the best performing indicator. When it comes to the categories; survey-based, financial and real-economy indicators, no category overall provide stability.
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Sen, Amrita. "Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Analysis of Phosphorus Circularity schemes in Agriculture". The Ohio State University, 2021. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1619111447316257.
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Edlund, Alan. "Synthetic Spider Silk Sustainability Verification by Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Analysis". DigitalCommons@USU, 2016. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/5150.
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Major ampullate spider silk represents a promising biomaterial with diverse commercial potential ranging from textiles to medical devices due to the excellent physical and thermal properties from the protein structure. Recent advancements in synthetic biology have facilitated the development of recombinant spider silk proteins from Escherichia coli (E. coli), alfalfa, and goats. This study specifically investigates the economic feasibility and environmental impact of synthetic spider silk manufacturing. Pilot scale data was used to validate an engineering process model that includes all of the required sub-processing steps for synthetic fiber manufacture: production, harvesting, purification, drying, and spinning. Modeling was constructed modularly to support assessment of alternative protein production methods (alfalfa and goats) as well as alternative down-stream processing technologies. The techno-economic analysis indicates a minimum sale price from pioneer and optimized E. coli plants at $761 kg-1 and $23 kg-1 with greenhouse gas emissions of 572 kg CO2-eq. kg-1 and 55 kg CO2-eq. kg-1, respectively. Spider silk sale price estimates from goat pioneer and optimized results are $730 kg-1 and $54 kg-1, respectively, with pioneer and optimized alfalfa plants are $207 kg-1 and $9.22 kg-1 respectively. Elevated costs and emissions from the pioneer plant can be directly tied to the high material consumption and low protein yield. Decreased production costs associated with the optimized plants include improved protein yield, process optimization, and an Nth plant assumption. Discussion focuses on the commercial potential of spider silk, the production performance requirements for commercialization, and impact of alternative technologies on the sustainability of the system.
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Clarström, Ulf. "Finansbubblor & babybooms : - en studie av sambandet mellan ekonomiska faktorer och fertilitet i Sverige 1960-2008". Thesis, Karlstad University, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Communication and IT, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-4150.
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Variations in fertility have caused a problematic situation in Sweden among other European countries. According to the Council of Europe we are facing an economic and demographic challenge, when the baby boomers of the 1940’s are retiring. Economists have for a long time studied the connection between economic factors and fertility, and several studies have found a correlation between business cycles and birth rates. This connection is again of current interest 2008, when a financial bubble bursts at the same time as a baby boom occurs. A similar event happened in 1992 when the latest baby boom occurred at the same time as a financial bubble.
This study investigates the correlation between real disposable income, employment among women, the price development of small houses, family policies and fertility during the period 1960-2008. The conclusions are reached by studies of earlier research and literature on economic theory of fertility. In the analysis theories and the results of earlier research are compared to empiric macro data taken from the Swedish Statistical Agency.
The conclusions are that a causal relation between economic factors and fertility exists, but it is not obvious; is fertility affected by variations in economic factors or the opposite? Employment affects both women’s income and their entitlement to parental benefit, which means that fertility and female employment are closely connected. Both financial bubbles and baby booms arise from the same psychological factors, which are rarely explained in economic models. When the Swedish parental benefit was introduced it had two effects; first it made the average age of women having their first baby increase, and secondly fertility became more closely connected to business cycles.
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Koerner, Stephen. "The British motor cycle industry, 1935-1975". Thesis, University of Warwick, 1995. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/2614/.
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Between 1935 and 1975, the British motor cycle industry declined from world supremacy to bankruptcy. The industry blamed its troubles on government policy, specifically taxation and regulation. These, it was maintained, had weakened and manufacturers' ability to effectively meet foreign competition, particularly after 1960 from Japan. The existing historiography has identified boardroom mismanagement as the main culprit. However, what the literature lacks is a wider perspective, especially one which extends to the period before 1945. Those years are critical to understanding the nature of the industry. This dissertation provides such a perspective combined with an analysis based on extensive primary research, particularly amongst recently opened trade and company records, as well as government documents at the Public Records Office. Although no single factor was entirely responsible for the industry's downfall, this dissertation will offer several explanations of varying importance. The failure to develop a cheap, lightweight motor cycle is particularly significant. This, in turn, reflected a 'management culture' which prevailed within many company boardrooms. The 'culture' was closely related to and influenced by a deep seated dedication to motor cycle sport and resulted in a narrow view of the market and the 'typical' consumer, both in Britain and abroad.
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Vasilev, Aleksandar Zdravkov. "Essays on real business cycle modeling and the public sector". Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2013. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/4286/.
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This thesis is composed of three core chapters on modern dynamic macroeconomics, which study different aspects of the public sector labor market in a large EU economy with significant public employment share and a non-trivial public sector wage premium over the private sector labor compensation. The study in this dissertation adds to earlier research by incorporating endogenous government hours and wages in the model framework and argues that the presence of a sizable public sector labor market in European economies generates significant interaction with the private sector labor and capital markets. In addition, the presence of interest groups (labor unions, government bureaucracy), as well as other labor market frictions in the public sector, is shown to be an important element of the analysis when discussing fiscal policy reforms. Motivated by the highly-unionized public sectors, the high public shares in total employment, and the public sector wage premia observed in most post-WWII European economies, Chapter 1 examines the role of public sector unions in a general equilibrium framework. A strong union presence in a large non-market sector is shown to be relevant for both business cycle fluctuations and for the welfare effect of fiscal regime changes. To this end, an otherwise standard real-business-cycle (RBC) model is augmented with a public sector union optimization problem. The resulting theoretical setup generates cyclical behavior in government hours and wages that is consistent with data behavior in an economy with a highly-unionized public sector, namely Germany during the period 1970-2007. The main findings of Chapter 1 are: (i) the model with a public sector union performs reasonably well vis-a-vis data; (ii) overall, the public sector union model is a significant improvement over a similar model with exogenous public sector employment; (iii) endogenously-determined public wage and hours add to the distortionary effect of contractionary tax reforms and produce significantly higher welfare losses. Additionally, the union model requires greater changes in tax rates to achieve a pre-specified increase in tax revenue compared to an equivalent model with exogenous public sector hours. Thus, endogenous public sector hours and wages in the setup are shown to be quantitatively important for public policy evaluation. Ignoring the positive co-movement between public and private hours and wages leads to a significant underestimation of the welfare effect of fiscal regime changes. Chapter 2 characterizes optimal fiscal policy and evaluates it relative to the exogenous (observed) one. Motivated by the high public employment, and the public wage premia observed in the major European economies, a Real-Business-Cycle model, calibrated to German data (1970-2007), is set up with a richer government spending side, and an endogenous private-public sector labor choice. To illustrate the effects of fiscal policy on sectoral allocation of hours, public wage rate determination and the provision of labor-intensive public services, two regimes are compared and contrasted to one another - exogenous vs. optimal (Ramsey) policy case. The main findings from the computational experiments performed in Chapter 2 are: (i) The optimal steady-state capital tax rate is zero, as it is the most distortionary tax to use; (ii) A higher labor tax rate is needed in the Ramsey case to compensate for the loss in capital tax revenue; (iii) Under the optimal policy regime, public sector employment is lower, but government employees receive higher wages; (iv) The benevolent Ramsey planner provides the optimal amount of the public good, and substitutes labor for capital in the input mix for public services and private output; (v) The government wage bill is smaller, while public investment is three times higher than in the exogenous policy case. Lastly, the thesis tries to delve into the hierarchical structure of public employment service and addresses the problem of rent-seeking in the public sector by government bureaucrats. Chapter 3 studies the wasteful effect of bureaucracy on the economy by addressing the link between rent-seeking behavior of government bureaucrats and the public sector wage bill, which is taken to represent the rent component. In particular, public officials are modeled as individuals competing for a larger share of those public funds. The theoretical model used is calibrated to German data for the period 1970-2007. The analysis then extends to the other major EU economies as well. To illustrate the effects of fiscal policy on rent-seeking, the exogenous and the optimal (Ramsey) policy cases are compared and contrasted to one another. The main findings of Chapter 3 are: (i) Due to the existence of a signicant public sector wage premium and the large public sector employment, a substantial amount of working time is spent rent-seeking, which in turn leads to significant losses measured in terms of aggregate output; (ii) The measures for the rent-seeking cost obtained from the model for the major EU countries are highly-correlated to indices of bureaucratic ineficiency; (iii) Under the optimal fiscal policy regime, steady-state rent-seeking is smaller relative to the exogenous policy case. The benevolent government invests more in public capital, sets a higher public wage premium, but chooses much lower public employment, thus achieving a decrease in rent-seeking.
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Schlachter, Hannah. "Environmental and Economic Assessment of Rainwater use in a University Dormitory". University of Toledo / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1304693753.
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Gryczon, Michal. "Combined life cycle and economic assessment of wood based bio fuels in Norway". Thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-8935.
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The increasing global demand for energy coupled with decreasing oil-supplies, and increasing risk of adverse climate change due to anthropogenic carbon emissions has created the need for combined economic and environmental assessment. This thesis attempt at devising such a framework based upon Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Costing (LCC). These methodologies represent two well established approaches for measuring environmental and economic performance of industrial projects and products. The LCA framework permits introduction of system expansion by interfacing with the greater economy by the hybrid-LCA. This approach also permits the assessment of life-cycle costs within the mathematical structure. The fundamental computations of LCA and LCC are introduced in this text in order to establish the combined assessment framework. This assessment method is applied to two National Renewable Energy Laboratory's studies on bio-ethanol production from lignocellulose. The studies are adapted to Norwegian economic conditions in order to assess the price and emissions of ethanol production from Norwegian wood mass. By combining these performance characteristics, a mitigation price of substituting gasoline with ethanol is established for various plant sizes as well as prices of gasoline.
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Byron, Margaret H. "The Caribbean-Britain migration cycle : migrant goals, social networks and socio-economic structure". Thesis, University of Oxford, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.332907.
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Nourouzilavasani, Samira. "Technico-Economic Evaluation of Bitumen-Coke Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle with CO2 Capture". Thesis, Université Laval, 2008. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2008/25542/25542.pdf.
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Hong, Jongsup. "Techno-economic analysis of pressurized oxy-fuel combustion power cycle for CO₂ capture". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/50567.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2009.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 124-127).
Growing concerns over greenhouse gas emissions have driven extensive research into new power generation cycles that enable carbon dioxide capture and sequestration. In this regard, oxy-fuel combustion is a promising new technology for capturing carbon dioxide in power generation systems utilizing hydrocarbon fuels. Combustion of a fuel in an environment of oxygen and recycled combustion gases yields flue gases consisting predominantly of carbon dioxide and water. To capture carbon dioxide, water is condensed, and carbon dioxide is purified and compressed beyond its supercritical state. However, conventional atmospheric oxy-fuel combustion systems require substantial parasitic energy in the compression step within the air separation unit, a flue gas recirculation system and carbon dioxide purification and compression units. Moreover, a large amount of flue gas latent enthalpy, which has high water concentration, is wasted. Both lower the overall cycle efficiency. Alternatively, pressurized oxy-fuel combustion power cycles have been investigated. In this thesis, the analysis of an oxy-fuel combustion power cycle that utilizes a pressurized coal combustor is reported. We show that this approach is beneficial in terms of larger flue gas thermal energy recovery and smaller parasitic power requirements. In addition, we find the pressure dependence of the system performance to determine the optimal combustor operating pressure for this cycle.
(cont.) We calculate the energy requirements of each unit and determine the pressure dependence of the water-condensing thermal energy recovery and its relation to the gross power output. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is conducted on important operating parameters including combustor temperature, Heat Recovery Steam Generator outlet temperature, oxygen purity and oxygen concentration in the flue gases. A cost analysis of the proposed system is also conducted so as to provide preliminary cost estimates.
by Jongsup Hong.
S.M.
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Bonnet, Nicéphore. "Sensitivity of economic performance of the nuclear fuel cycle to simulation modeling assumptions". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/41312.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering, 2007.Includes bibliographical references (p. 129-130).
Comparing different nuclear fuel cycles and assessing their implications require a fuel cycle simulation model as complete and realistic as possible. In this thesis, methodological implications of modeling choices are discussed in connection with development of the MIT fuel cycle simulation code CAFCA. The CAFCA code is meant to find the recycling facilities deployment rate that minimizes the time by which spent fuel in storage today is used up in order to lead to a nuclear fuel cycle with minimum inventory of transuranic elements. The deployment is constrained by the recycling plants construction capacity and also by the economic requirement that the recycling plants loading factor never drops below a certain level. First, through a simplified fuel cycle model, it is analytically proven that an optimum solution is to build recycling plants at full speed up to a certain point in time b, then to suspend construction until interim storage gets completely depleted. The shape of the optimum solution, parameterized by b, is injected into an algorithm based on a complete model of the fuel cycle. An iterative process yields the value of b assuring depletion and satisfactory loading factors. Besides providing rigorous optimization,this analytical solution underpinning the CAFCA algorithm is expected to reduce considerably the vulnerability of the results to numerical discontinuities. Degradation of fuel quality with time in interim storage occurs due to the decay of Pu241 into Am241. While an obvious approach to track such effects is to couple the fuel cycle code with a neutronics/decay code (ORIGEN for example), it is more efficient to derive explicit equations from a simplified irradiation and decay model, allowing for analytical tracking of the fuel composition.
(cont.) All fuel cycle simulation refinements do not present the same level of importance. One should focus on the dominant parameters as those contributing the most to overall results sensitivity. A novel U.S. thermal recycling scenario called CONFU is taken as a reference case. The CONFU technology is introduced 15 years from now, with an industrial capacity allowing the construction of one 1000 MT/year spent fuel separation plant every two years. Discharged CONFU batches remain in cooling storage for 6 years. Reactors have a 60 years lifetime and economic ecovery period of 20 years, and are half financed by equity with a rate of return of 15%. It is found that the cost of electricity is most sensitive to the reactors lifetime, since taking it back to its initial nominal value of 40 years would result in a 44% increase in the cost of electricity. Next in importance is the financing structure of the fleet. The addition of three points to the rate of return on equity would increase the cost of electricity by 14%. While scale effects are locally very beneficial in that they substantially reduce recycling plants operation costs, they prove to be of limited interest from an overall fuel cycle point of view. Using the scale effect model in CAFCA-II, doubling the separation plants capacity yields a 3% reduction of the cost of electricity. The fuel cycle presents good robustness with respect to fuel decay time degradation. Increasing CONFU batches cooling time to 18 years causes a 2% increase in the cost of electricity.
by Nicéphore Bonnet.
S.M.
40
Choi, Jeong-Gil. "The hotel industry cycle: developing an economic indicator system for the hotel industry". Thesis, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/77739.
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The principal objective of this study was to develop an economic indicator system for the hotel industry in order to project the industry's growth and turning points. This study developed for the U.S. hotel industry a business cycle that would cover hotel activity as broadly as possible and one that would represent the magnitude of growth of the industry. This study also identified and selected seventy economic indicators for the hotel industry by reviewing literature and testing the characteristics of each time series which are available in public. By classifying the indicators into leading, coincident, and lagging indicators, this study formed composite indices for the groups of indicators and defined the relationships in terms of time lags between the hotel industry growth cycle and the series of composite indices.
For a twenty-eight year period ( 1966-1993 ), the hotel industry experienced three cycles (peak to peak or trough to trough). The hotel industry peaked in 1967, 1973, 1980, and 1989. The industry troughed in 1969, 1974, 1982, and 1991. The mean duration of the hotel industry cycles is 7.3 years, calculated either by peak to peak or trough to trough. An interesting finding is that the hotel industry declines sharply once it reached the peaks. In general, the mean duration for the contraction is about two years.
The hotel industry growth cycle representing the rate of growth changes was also identified by standardizing the changes, and by measuring and dating the cycles. The results showed that the hotel industry experienced high growth (a boom) every four or five years. The average expansion (L-H) period is about three years and the average contraction (H-L) period is about two years.
The performances of the composite indices for the leading, coincident, and lagging indicators were measured based on their timing differences of turning points compared with those of the industry cycles. The usefulness and effectiveness of the indicator system composed of composite indices of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators were empirically supported in this study. The results of this study imply the indicator system can be used as a forecasting tool for the hotel industry.Master of Science
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Faze, Natasha Ranjit. "Life Cycle And Economic Analysis Comparing Microbial Desalination Cell And Reverse Osmosis Technologies". The Ohio State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1428934798.
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Nourouzilavasani, Samira. "Technico-economic evaluation of bitumen-coke integrated gasification combined cycle with CO₂ capture". Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2008. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2008/25542/25542.pdf.
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Wiemers, Emily E. "Economic behavior and the role of family and friends over the life cycle". Diss., Restricted to subscribing institutions, 2009. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1997620831&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=1564&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Antonakakis, Nikolaos, e Gabriele Tondl. "Does Integration and Economic Policy Coordination Promote Business Cycle Synchronization in the EU?" Springer, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10663-014-9254-2.
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Previous studies have discounted important factors and indirect channels that might contribute to business cycle synchronization (BSC) in the EU. We estimate the effects of market integration and economic policy coordination on bilateral business cycle correlations over the period 1995-2012 using a simultaneous equations model that takes into accounts both the endogenous relationships and unveils direct and indirect effects. The results suggest that (i) trade and FDI have a pronounced positive effect on BCS, particularly between incumbent and new EU members. (ii) Rising specialization does not decouple business cycles. (iii) The decline of income disparities in EU27 contributes to BCS, as converging countries develop stronger trade and FDI linkages. (iv) There is strong evidence that poor fiscal discipline of EU members is a major impediment of business cycle synchronization. (v) The same argument holds true for exchange rate fluctuations that hinder BCS, particularly in EU15. Since BCS is a fundamental prerequisite and objective in an effective monetary union, the EU has to promote market integration and strengthen the common setting of economic policies.
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Liu, Wenxian. "Interpreting and forecasting the semiconductor industry cycle". free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2002. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p3060119.
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Dighe, Ranjit S. "The presidential business cycle in the U.S.: A theoretical and empirical examination". Oberlin College Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 1987. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=oberlin1342203273.
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Millward, Andrew. "Factors contributing to the sustained success of the UK cycle industry 1870-1939". Thesis, University of Birmingham, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.343432.
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Hindle, Robert Dennis. "The business cycle, demand for construction and appropriate selling methods for contractors". Master's thesis, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, 1991. https://hdl.handle.net/11427/32016.
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This dissertation is a record of research into two distinct areas that are brought together to test the primary hypothesis. These two areas are; the general business cycle and its effects of the performance of construction companies and the methods by which general contractors in the building industry, are able to market and sell their services or products. In part one, it is shown that there is a relationship between the business cycle and the demand for construction. The latter expands and contracts in sympathy with the cycle. The effects of the changes in the level of demand for buildings are analyzed and fully described, resulting in a model· which can be used to determine the sequence of effects for each phase of the business cycles. In part two, the methods by which contractors are selected and sell their service or product are analyzed and compared. The usage of each system is measured and it is found that change has occurred, the reasons for such change are investigated in order to gain an insight into potential future developments. This has been done in a way that is intended to strip the subject of it's mystique and confusion of terminology by the application of basic economic and marketing principles. New and improved terminology is suggested. The findings show that construction contractors can choose from a variety of 'selling systems'. These systems will provide competitive advantage to those who are able to predict the likely turning points of the business cycle and use those 'selling systems' that are appropriate to specific stages of the business cycle. The research was conducted by finding, analyzing and interpreting various time series data, by surveying architects quantity surveyors and contractors for facts and figures that were not available elsewhere, and by conducting a through survey of published books, articles and research papers.
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Shrestha, Prativa. "CARBON LIFE-CYCLE AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND WOODY BIOENERGY PRODUCTION". UKnowledge, 2013. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/forestry_etds/14.
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Sequestering carbon in standing biomass, using woody bioenergy, and using woody products are the three potential ways to utilize forests in reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and mitigating climate change. These forestry related strategies are, however, greatly influenced by the existing markets and market based policies. This study focuses on the first two forest strategies. It investigates the combined impact of carbon and woody bioenergy markets on two different types of forests in the US – oak dominated mixed hardwood forests in the Central Hardwood Forests Region and loblolly pine forests in the southeastern US. A modification of the Harman model was used for the economic analysis of carbon sequestration and harvesting woody biomass for bioenergy. A forest carbon life-cycle assessment was used to determine the carbon emissions associated with management of forests and harvesting of wood products. Results from this study indicate that carbon payments and woody bioenergy production increase the land expectation value (LEV) for both forest types.
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Alcoe, Glenn. "Economic theories of voting and the political business cycle : a cross-national comparative analysis". Thesis, University of Essex, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.340581.
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