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1
Ramula, Satu. "Population viability analysis for plants : practical recommendations and applications". Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Department of Botany, Stockholm University, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-845.
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Hartup, Wendi Winter. "Assessing persistence of two rare darter species using population viability analysis models". Auburn, Ala., 2005. http://repo.lib.auburn.edu/2005%20Summer/master's/HARTUP_WENDI_17.pdf.
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Strem, Rosa I. "Population viability analysis of the blue-throated macaw (Ara glaucogularis) using individual-based and cohort-based PVA programs". Bowling Green, Ohio : Bowling Green State University, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=bgsu1219175814.
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Cobanoglu, Aziz Emre. "Identification Of Demographic Structure And Population Viability Analysis Of Gazella Subgutturosa In Sanliurfa". Master's thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12611676/index.pdf.
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Goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) is an Asian antelope species and it is classified as Vulnerable by IUCN. They have an economic, esthetic and cultural valuetherefore, they had been hunted and domesticated for a long time. Additional human disturbance over years nearly led goitered gazelle populations in Turkey to extinction. Today in Turkey, only natural population of goitered gazelle lives in Sanlurfa. In this theses, demographic structure and population parameters of natural population goitered gazelle in Sanliurfa is studied. Line transect and regular surveys are performed to collect data about demographic structure of the population such as sex ratio and group composition. Line transect sampling, which is a distance sampling technique, is used to estimate population size and density of the population. GPS collared goitered gazelles are monitored for fecundity and survival rate. Data is collected for 18 from July 2008 to December 2009 during 32 field surveys. Four main transect samplings have been performed and including transect samplings that are done during regular surveys, 90 line transects are walked. Population sizes and densities were estimated to be (average ±
standard error) 242 ±
184 and 2.302 ±
1.590 individual per km2 for July 2008
365 ±
179 and 3.476 ±
1.707 individual per km2 for January 2009
319 ±
111 and 3.039 ±
1.059 individual per km2 for June 2009 and lastly, 317 ±
243 and 3.019 ±
2.315 for November 2009. Survival rate is estimated to be 0.276, 0.540 and 0.585 for calves, 1 year old and 2+ years olds respectivelty, and fecundity is estimated to be 0.4. This preliminary study shows that according to Population Viability Analysis results, natural goitered gazelle population in Turkey will be extinct in next 10 years if more effective conservation is not performed.
5
Wakamiya, Sarah M. "A habitat and population viability analysis for potential peregrine falcon reintroductions in southern Illinois /". Available to subscribers only, 2008. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1650505341&sid=3&Fmt=2&clientId=1509&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Robinson, Christopher. "Metapopulation viability of swamp rabbits (Sylvilagus aquaticus) in southern Illinois". OpenSIUC, 2013. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses/1282.
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Swamp rabbits (Sylvilagus aquaticus) in southern Illinois exist as a metapopulation due to loss and fragmentation of the bottomland hardwood forests in which they live, making their persistence in the state uncertain. I ran a spatially-explicit population viability analysis (PVA) on the metapopulation, using a habitat suitability map I created and life history parameters drawn from the literature. I varied parameters related to reproduction, survival, catastrophes, dispersal, and carrying capacity from 50 to 150% of the initial value of each parameter to compare their effects on extinction risk. I modified the map to test the effects of potential habitat loss, fragmentation, and the addition of dispersal corridors on the swamp rabbit metapopulation in southern Illinois. Under baseline conditions, the model suggested about a 20% chance of quasi-extinction (90% metapopulation decline) in 25 years. Changes in fecundity values and the effects of catastrophic flooding had the greatest effect on the risk of extinction, causing quasi-extinction probabilities to range from 0 to 100% and 0 to 87%, respectively. In contrast, changing dispersal values yielded the least impact on the risk of extinction (18-24%), and all other parameters had moderate impacts on the model. Removing groups of the largest habitat patches increased the risk of extinction, whereas removing groups of the smallest habitat patches decreased the risk of extinction, suggesting that small patches could act as population sinks with a negative impact on swamp rabbit persistence. Decreasing patch fragmentation per se reduced the risk of extinction slightly. The addition of dispersal corridors made no significant impact on the probability of extinction. My findings indicate that more research estimating fecundity and the effect of catastrophic floods on swamp rabbits in Illinois is required to more accurately predict swamp rabbit persistence in the state. I also suggest that managers should work to decrease the effect of flooding on the population by improving upland habitat, or decrease fragmentation by increasing the area of bottomland hardwood forests around existing habitat patches. Lastly, I suggest managers focus on preventing further habitat fragmentation into small patches, which will mitigate the creation of potential sink populations and will enable current populations to persist.
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Colteaux, Benjamin C. "The Status of Snapping Turtles (Chelydra serpentina) in Virginia: Population Viability, Demography, Regulatory Analysis, and Conservation". VCU Scholars Compass, 2017. https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd/5162.
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Snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina) are being harvested in unprecedented numbers in the United States (US) to meet the needs of international markets. Over three million live snapping turtles from farm and wild caught stock were exported from the US to Asia in 2012-14 alone. In the Commonwealth of Virginia, records indicate that 29,860 snapping turtles were commercially harvested between 2000 and 2015. Size limits are often used to regulate harvest pressure in snapping turtles and other game species. I analyzed the historic harvest of eleven US states to test the efficacy of minimum-size limit regulations at reducing commercial harvest pressure. Further, I conducted a four-year mark-recapture study on three Virginia waterways that have each experienced a different level of historic commercial harvest. As part of the larger mark/recapture project, I conducted radio telemetry on 23 turtles to examine seasonal, body size, and sex-specific effects on home range size of snapping turtles in a lotic system. I incorporated survival and growth rates from this study, demographic rates from the literature, and state-collected harvest rates into a hybrid age/stage population matrix model to estimate the population growth rate at three harvest levels (0%, 21%, 58%) that were estimated based on annual commercial landing reports on file with the Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries. I used the model to test population viability under multiple size limit regulations, and used sensitivity analyses to identify adult stages most critical to the overall population growth rate.
Based on model estimates, size-limits were effective at reducing harvest by 30-87% in years with high harvest pressure. However, most size limit regulations result in the removal of larger breeding adults, which has been shown to be detrimental to long term population viability. Based on radio-telemetry data, I found evidence that snapping turtles utilize lotic and lentic habitats differently, which can have implications for management of this iconic species. Matrix population modelling predicted that population densities at the moderate and high harvest site were reduced by 47% and 62%, respectively, when compared to the no harvest site. Model results indicate that, while an increase to the minimum-size limit in 2012 protected a larger portion of the population, that the commercial harvest of snapping turtles in the Commonwealth of Virginia is not sustainable under current state regulations. Our analysis suggests that minimum-size limits of 35.6 cm curved carapace length or greater will maintain viable populations by protecting a larger portion of reproducing snapping turtles within a population.
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Kappler, Rachel Hope. "Exploring the Population Viability of Green Ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica) with a Stage-Based Model". Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1528132089275356.
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Muiznieks, Britta Dace. "Population viability analysis of Puerto Rican parrots an assessment of its current status and prognosis for recovery /". Connect to this title online, 2003. http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/theses/available/etd-06192003-121313/unrestricted/etd.pdf.
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Hagen, Christian Andrew. "A demographic analysis of lesser prairie-chicken populations in southwestern Kansas : survival, population viability, and habitat use /". Search for this dissertation online, 2003. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ksu/main.
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Barnes, Jami R. "An Integrative Approach to Conservation of the Crested Caracara (Caracara Cheriway)in Florida: Linking Demographic and Habitat Modeling for Prioritization". Bowling Green, Ohio : Bowling Green State University, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=bgsu1182527612.
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Strem, Cuellar Rosa Ines. "Population Viability Analysis of the Bule-Throated Macaw (Ara glaucogularis) Using Individual-Based and Cohort-Based PVA Programs". Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1219175814.
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Kaye, Thomas N. "Population viability analysis of endangered plant species an evaluation of stochastic methods and an application to a rare prairie plant /". Connect to this title online, 2001. http://fresc.usgs.gov/products/thesis/kaye/thesis.html.
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Conry, Danielle Shanè. "Population status and habitat use of Indian Ocean humpback dolphins (sousa plumbea) along the south coast of South Africa". Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/15556.
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Long-lived, top-level predators, such as some marine mammals, serve as important indicators of ecosystem health. Assessing the abundance and habitat use of such marine top predators is essential for the formulation of effective conservation and management actions. There is considerable concern over the viability of small humpback dolphin opulations across a global scale and a number of studies have raised concerns over their vulnerability to extinction. In light of the recent uplisting of Indian Ocean humpback dolphins (Sousa plumbea) to ‘Endangered’ on the South African Red Data list, there is an urgent need for a greater understanding of the abundance and spatial distribution of this species along the South African coastline. Using small vessels as survey platforms between March 2014 and June 2015, this study attempted to determine the abundance, spatial distribution and habitat preferences of Indian Ocean humpback dolphins along 150 km of South Africa’s south coast. A further aim was to assess the utilisation of the current Marine Protected Area network by humpback dolphins along this coastline relative to areas outside of formal protection. Mark-recapture methods applied to photo-identification data produced abundance estimates of 84 individuals (95% CI: 72-115) within the study area for both open and closed models. An average group size of 3.94 individuals (range 1-12; SD = ± 2.82) was observed during the study, indicating a decrease in average group size of ~45 % from a previous assessment in 2002/03. Such a decline in group size could potentially be a result of a change in social structure in response to reduced prey availability. Spatial analyses of humpback dolphin geographic positions, using a kernel density estimator (KDE) and effort-weighted density grid analyses, indicate that the species is unevenly distributed over the coastal zone within the area. Sightings occurred at the highest densities within Buffels Bay and along Goukamma MPA, followed by Plettenberg Bay, Nature’s Valley, and around the Bloukrans, Elandsbos and Groot River East mouths. Habitat preference was assessed using a standard classification-based method and the results indicate a strong preference, in particular, for Dissipative Intermediate Sandy Coast habitat, followed by Very Exposed Rocky Coast, Intermediate Sandy Coast, Estuarine Shore, Mixed Shore and Inshore Reef habitats. Areas of high humpback dolphin densities appear to be associated with these habitat types, especially with Dissipative-Intermediate Sandy Coast habitat. Humpback dolphins were sighted at relatively low densities along stretches of coastline consisting predominately of Exposed Rocky Shore habitat. Long expanses of this habitat type may limit humpback dolphin movements along the coast. The observed patterns in distribution and habitat preferences may be linked to the availability of prey and/or the avoidance of predators. Average sightings per kilometer travelled (SPUE) indicate that the utilisation of the Robberg and Tsitsikamma MPAs by humpback dolphins was low, most likely due to the low availability of sandy coastline in these areas. In contrast, the utilisation of the Goukamma MPA, which is characterised by a high availability of Dissipative-Intermediate Sandy Coast, was very high. The low population numbers and declines in average group size of Indian Ocean humpback dolphins within the study area warrant concern and call for effective conservation and management measures. In light of ever-increasing levels of anthropogenic threats to coastal areas, future research and long-term monitoring of the population is essential to broaden our knowledge of the species and to detect population trends.
15
Campbell, Richard. "Demography and population genetic structure of the Australian sea lion, neophoca cinerea". University of Western Australia. School of Animal Biology, 2003. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2005.0058.
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The Australian sea lion, Neophoca cinerea, is Australia?s only endemic pinniped, and one of the rarest sea lions in the world. This species suffered localised extinction events, and a probable population decline during the commercial sealing era of the 18th to 20th centuries. This species also has a unique reproductive cycle and breeding system compared with all other pinnipeds. Unlike the usual annual, synchronous cycle, this species has a 17.5 month breeding cycle which is asynchronous across its range. Small groups of proximate colonies appear to breed synchronously, but otherwise the timing appears randomly distributed. It was proposed that this system is endogenously controlled and maintained by exclusive female natal site fidelity (Gales et al. 1994). This would have a discernible impact on the population genetic structure, and would be directly applicable to conservation management practices. Investigation of population genetic structure of the Australian sea lion using mtDNA and microsatellite markers revealed a highly subdivided population that showed strong patterns of sex-biased dispersal, and strong regional divisions. The level of female natal site fidelity was extreme, resulting in very high levels of genetic differentiation, unparalleled in other marine mammal populations. Significant divisions existed across both macro and micro geographic scales, with fixed differences occurring between colonies separated by as little as 20 kilometres. Strong phylogeographic patterning suggested that divisions between populations are of some antiquity. High levels of fixation in mtDNA markers among the many small colonies in Western Australia was attributed to the high rate of genetic drift in small populations, especially for these markers. Genetic subdivison, as measured by microsatellite markers, revealed a malebiased dispersal pattern. Levels of male dispersal were sufficient in overcoming the female natal site fidelity and rendering small groups of colonies effectively panmictic. However, the range of male dispersal was limited to approximately 200 kilometres and resulted in a regional population structure best defined by geographic distance. This level of subdivision was perhaps greater than expected given the dispersal capabilities of this species, and suggested that some behavioural processes may limit dispersal. Historical processes of extinction and colonisation are thought to have had a strong influence on the current pattern of population subdivision as well.
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Tucek, Jenny Bianka. "Comparison of the population growth potential of South African loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) sea turtles". Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/5032.
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A beach conservation programme protecting nesting loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) sea turtles in South Africa was started in 1963. As initial numbers of nesting females were low for both species (107 loggerheads and 24 leatherbacks) it was proposed that the protection of eggs, hatchlings and nesting females along the nesting beach would induce population growth and prohibit local extinction. Today, 50 years later, the loggerhead population exceeds 650 females per annum, whereas the leatherback population counts about 65 nesting females per year. The trend for leatherback turtles is that the population has been stable for about 30 years whereas loggerheads are increasing exponentially. Thus, this thesis investigated several life-history traits to explain the differing responses to the ongoing beach conservation programme. Reproductive output and success were assessed for both species; it was hypothesised that environmental conditions are sub-optimal for leatherback turtles to reproduce successfully. It was ascertained that nesting loggerhead females deposit larger clutches than leatherbacks (112 ± SD 20 eggs and 100 ± SD 23 eggs, respectively), but that annual reproductive output per individual leatherback female exceeds that of loggerhead turtles (±700 eggs and ±448 eggs, respectively) because they exhibit a higher intra-seasonal nesting frequency (leatherbacks n = 7 and loggerheads n = 4 from Nel et al. 2013). Emergence success (i.e. the percentage of hatchlings produced) per nest was similar for both species (loggerhead 73.6 ± SD 27.68 % and leatherback turtles 73.8 ± SD 22.70 %), but as loggerhead turtles nest in greater numbers, i.e. producing more hatchlings per year, the absolute population growth potential favours the loggerhead turtle. The second factor investigated was sex ratio because sea turtles display temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) where extreme incubation temperatures can skew the sex ratio (i.e. feminising or masculinising a clutch). It was suspected that leatherback turtles are male-biased as this is the southern-most rookery (for both species). Further, leatherback nests are generally closer to the high tide mark, which might induce a cooling effect. Standard histological techniques were applied to sex hatchlings and a generalized linear model (GLM) was used to approximate annual sex ratio. Loggerhead sex ratio (2009 - 2011) was estimated at 86.9 ± SE 0.35 % female-biased; however, sufficient replication for the leatherback population was only obtained for season 2010, which indicated a 97.1 % (95 % CI 93.3 - 98.7) female bias. Both species are, thus, highly female-biased, and current sex ratio for leatherback turtles is not prohibiting population growth. Current sex ratios, however, are not necessarily indicative of sex ratios in the past which would have induced present population growth. Thus, to account for present population growth profiles, sex ratios from the past needed to be ascertained. Annual sex ratios (1997 - 2011) were modelled from historical air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) but no significant change over time was obtained for either loggerhead or leatherback turtles (linear regression; p ≥ 0.45). The average sex ratio over this 15-year period for the South African loggerhead turtle was approximated at 77.1 ± SE 3.36 % female-biased, whereas leatherbacks exhibited a 99.5 ± SE 0.24 % female bias. Re-analysing data from the mid-80s by Maxwell et al. (1988) also indicated a 77.4 % female bias for the South African loggerhead population. It is, therefore, highly likely that sex ratios of the South African loggerhead and leatherback sea turtle populations have been stable for at least three decades and are not accountable for the differing population growth profiles as they are displayed today. Another possibility that could explain the opposed population growth profiles is the time taken for animals to replace themselves, i.e. age at maturity. It was suspected that age at maturity for the South African loggerhead turtle is comparable with that for leatherbacks. Using data from a 30-year mutilation tagging experiment (i.e. notching), age at first reproduction for South African loggerhead females was estimated. Results ranged broadly but a mean of 36.2 ± SD 7.71 years was obtained using a Gaussian distribution. Age at reproduction of the South African leatherback turtle was not determined but the literature suggests a much younger age of 13.3 - 26.8 years (Zug & Parham 1996, Dutton et al. 2005, Avens et al. 2009, Jones et al. 2011). Therefore, population growth would favour leatherback turtles as they exhibit a much shorter generation time. Finally, it was concluded that all life-history parameters investigated favour leatherback turtles, yet loggerheads are displaying population growth. However, as there were no obvious constraints to population growth on the nesting beach, it is suspected that population growth of the South African leatherback turtle is either unobserved (due to inadequate monitoring not capturing sufficient numbers of nesting events to establish a trend) or that population growth is prohibited by some offshore factor such as industrial fisheries (or some other driver not yet identified). Monitoring should, thus, be expanded and offshore mortality monitored as the leatherback population nesting in South Africa is still critically endangered with nesting numbers dangerously low.
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Säterberg, Torbjörn. "Minimum Ecologically Viable Populations : Risk assessment from a multispecies perspective". Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-18959.
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The extinction risk of threatened species has traditionally been assessed by the use of tools of Population Viability Analysis (PVA). Species interactions, however, have seldom been accounted for in PVA:s. The omission of species interactions in risk assessments may further lead to serious mistakes when setting target sizes of populations. Even a slight abundance decrease of a target species may result in changes of the community structure; in the worst case leading to a highly impoverished community. Of critical importance to conservation is therefore the question of how many individuals of a certain population that is needed in order to avoid this kind of consequences. In the current study, a stochastic multispecies model is used to estimate minimum ecological viable populations (MEVP); earlier defined as “the minimum size of a population that can survive before itself or some other species in the community becomes extinct”. The MEVP:s are compared to population sizes given by a single species model where interactions with other species are treated as a constant source incorporated in the species specific growth rate. MEVP:s are found to be larger than the population sizes given by the single species model. The results are trophic level dependent and multispecies approaches are suggested to be of major importance when setting target levels for species at the basal level. Species at higher trophic levels, however, are altogether more prone to extinction than species at the basal level, irrespective of food web size and food web complexity.
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Carvalho, Catarina Silva. "Role of climate on barn owls road-kill likelihood and the effect on population viability in future climate change". Master's thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/16084.
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Mestrado em Ecologia AplicadaRoads represent a new source of mortality due to animal-vehicle risk of collision threatening log-term populations’ viability. Risk of road-kill depends on species sensitivity to roads and their specific life-history traits. The risk of road mortality for each species depends on the characteristics of roads and bioecological characteristics of the species. In this study we intend to know the importance of climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) together with traffic and life history traits and understand the role of drought in barn owl population viability, also affected by road mortality in three scenarios: high mobility, high population density and the combination of previous scenarios (mixed) (Manuscript). For the first objective we correlated the several parameters (climate, traffic and life history traits). We used the most correlated variables to build a predictive mixed model (GLMM) the influence of the same. Using a population model we evaluated barn owl population viability in all three scenarios. Model revealed precipitation, traffic and dispersal have negative relationship with road-kills, although the relationship was not significant. Scenarios showed different results, high mobility scenario showed greater population depletion, more fluctuations over time and greater risk of extinction. High population density scenario showed a more stable population with lower risk of extinction and mixed scenario showed similar results as first scenario. Climate seems to play an indirect role on barn owl road-kills, it may influence prey availability which influences barn owl reproductive success and activity. Also, high mobility scenario showed a greater negative impact on viability of populations which may affect their ability and resilience to other stochastic events. Future research should take in account climate and how it may influence species life cycles and activity periods for a more complete approach of road-kills. Also it is important to make the best mitigation decisions which might include improving prey quality habitat.
As estradas representam uma nova fonte de mortalidade para vida selvagem devido ao risco de colisão com veículos apresentando mais uma ameaça à viabilidade das suas populações. O risco de atropelamento de cada espécie depende das características das estradas e das características bio-ecológicas da espécie. Neste estudo pretendemos conhecer a importância dos parâmetros climáticos (temperatura e precipitação) em conjunto com tráfego e os períodos do ciclo de vida da espécie e perceber o papel da seca na viabilidade populacional de coruja-das-torres afetadas por mortalidade nas estradas em três cenários: mobilidade elevada, elevada densidade populacional e a combinação dos cenários anteriores (misto) (Manuscrito). Para o primeiro objetivo correlacionaram-se os vários parâmetros (clima, tráfego e períodos do ciclo de vida). Usaram-se as variáveis mais correlacionadas para construir um modelo misto preditivo (GLMM) da influência dos mesmos. Através de um modelo populacional avaliou-se a viabilidade populacional nos três cenários. O modelo revelou que a precipitação, tráfego e dispersão têm uma relação negativa com os atropelamentos, embora esta não seja significativa. Os resultados foram diferentes, o cenário de mobilidade elevada resultou numa maior diminuição da população e em maiores flutuações ao longo do tempo apresentando um maior risco de extinção do que os restantes cenários. O cenário de elevada densidade populacional resultou numa maior estabilidade das populações com menor risco de extinção e o cenário misto apresentou resultados semelhantes ao cenário de elevada mobilidade. A precipitação parece apresentar um papel mais indireto na influência dos atropelamentos, influenciando a presença de presas a qual pode determinar o sucesso reprodutivo e a atividade desta espécie. A menor densidade populacional representa um maior risco para a viabilidade populacional e resiliência a outros eventos estocásticos. Estudos futuros deverão ter em conta o clima e o modo como este influencia os períodos de atividade das espécies e a incidência de atropelamentos de modo a tomar as medidas de mitigação mais adequadas que poderão passar pelo melhoramento da qualidade do habitat das presas.
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Klok, Trijntje Christina. "A quest for the role of habitat quality in nature conservation applications of population dynamical models in viability analysis and risk assessment /". [S.l. : Amsterdam : s.n.] ; Universiteit van Amsterdam [Host], 2000. http://dare.uva.nl/document/55182.
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LaFever, David Howard. "Population modeling in conservation planning of the Lower Keys marsh rabbit". Texas A&M University, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/4402.
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Rapid development and urbanization of the Lower Florida Keys in the last 30
years has fragmented the habitat of the Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris
hefneri) and threatened it with extinction. Current threats exist at multiple
spatiotemporal scales and include threats due to development, invasive species, and
global climate change. On Boca Chica Key, the Lower Keys marsh rabbit (LKMR)
exists as a metapopulation on Naval Air Station-Key West (NASKW). I conducted a
population viability analysis to determine the metapopulation's risk of extinction under
multiple management scenarios by developing a spatially-explicit, stage-structured,
stochastic matrix model using the programs RAMAS Metapop and ArcGIS. These
management scenarios include clearance of airfield vegetation, habitat conversion, and
control of feral cats as an invasive species. Model results provided the Navy with
relative risk estimates under these different scenarios. Airfield clearance with habitat
conversion increased extinction risk, but when coupled with feral cat control, risk was
decreased.
Because of the potential of sea-level rise due to human-induced global climate
change, and its projected impact on the biodiversity of the Florida Keys, I estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on LKMR across its geographic distribution under scenarios
of no, low (0.3m), medium (0.6m), and high (0.9m) sea-level rise. I also investigated
impacts due to 2 treatments (allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing
migration), and 2 land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of humandominated
areas). Not surprisingly, under both treatments and both land-use planning
decisions, I found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with
increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas
both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat as compared with allowing migration
and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion, conservation strategies at
multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce threats to LKMR, such as
development, invasive species, and global climate change.
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Agzitemiz, Mehmet Melih. "Study Of Effects Of Selective Hunting On A Bear Population Through Pva Simulation". Master's thesis, METU, 2008. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12610026/index.pdf.
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Management of big wildlife such as bears can be a difficult task, especially in the face of human-wildlife conflict and demands of the hunting industry. The Brown Bear (Ursus arctos) population at Yusufeli County (Artvin, northeastern Turkey) has recently been the focus of scientific, social and economic concerns. This study population of c. 140 individuals occurs within 800 km2 of forested and alpine land. Legal hunting of male bears was allowed in 2007 after an interval of four years. This study aims to find out through a population viability analysis the level and frequency of trophy hunting this population can tolerate for the next 50 years. A matrix model with six age-classes for each sex was constructed using observed and literature-based parameter values. RAMAS Metapop was used to simulate four different scenarios where numbers of hunted bears and hunting frequency changes.
The model was highly sensitive to maximum growth rate and adult survival. Interval extinction probabilities for the next 50 years ranged between 0% and 26% depending on the scenario. Viable scenarios (with an extinction probability <0.05) were only possible with either no trophy hunting or hunting of 4 subadult/adult males and 1 adult female every other year. Legal and illegal hunting jointly impact the bear population in a strong way, and when they occur simultaneously every year, they lead to extinction in the long run. Avoidance of illegal killing and a close supervision of trophy hunting are crucial in the management of this bear population.
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Catlin, Daniel H. "Population Dynamics of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) on the Missouri River". Diss., Virginia Tech, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/27442.
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Habitat loss and predation are threatening many shorebird populations worldwide. While habitat preservation often is preferable, sometimes habitat needs to be restored or created in order to stave off immediate declines. The Great Plains population of piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) was listed as threatened in 1986, and habitat loss and predation appear to be limiting the growth of this population. On the Missouri River, piping plovers nest on sandbars, but the damming of the mainstem of the Missouri in the mid-twentieth century reduced the natural capacity of the Missouri River to create sandbar habitat. In 2004, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) implemented a habitat creation project on the Gavins Point Reach of the Missouri River (stretch of river immediately downriver from the Gavins Point Dam) in an effort to promote recovery of piping plovers and the endangered least tern (Sternula antillarum). The USACE built 3 sandbars in 2004 â 2005 and built another sandbar on Lewis and Clark Lake in 2007. We studied the population dynamics of piping plovers in relationship to this newly engineered habitat. We monitored 623 nests on 16 sandbar complexes, to evaluate habitat selection, determine the factors affecting nesting success, and compare nesting success between natural and engineered habitat. From these 623 nests, we banded 357 adults and 685 chicks to investigate the factors affecting adult and juvenile survival. We used a logistic-exposure model to calculate nest survival. Adult and juvenile survival was calculated using Cormack-Jolly-Seber based models in Program MARK. We used the estimates from these studies to create a matrix population model for piping plovers nesting on the Gavins Point Reach. We used this model to predict the effects of engineered habitat on the population growth rate.
Piping plovers selected for engineered sandbars and against natural and natural/modified habitats. Daily survival rate (DSR) on engineered habitats was significantly higher than on natural or natural modified habitats (log odds: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.20 â 6.08). Predator exclosures around nests did not affect DSR after controlling for the effects of date, nest age, and clutch size. Piping plover juvenile survival to recruitment was negatively related to nesting density on the relatively densely populated engineered sandbars. On the less dense natural sandbars, survival to recruitment was positively correlated with density. Adult survival did not appear to be related to density within our study. Movement within the study area was related also to density. Juveniles from densely populated engineered sandbars were more likely to leave engineered habitat to nest on natural sandbars than were juveniles hatched on less densely populated engineered sandbars. Movements among sandbars by breeding adults suggested that adults preferred engineered habitat. It is possible that juveniles moved to natural habitats because they were unable to compete with adults for the more desirable engineered habitats. Adults and juveniles emigrated from the study area at a higher rate after the 2006 breeding season, a year when water discharge was higher, nesting densities were higher, and reproductive success was lower (as a result of predation) than in the other years. Deterministic modeling suggested that engineered habitat significantly increased population growth. Decreased productivity over time and associated predicted negative population growth suggest that the amount of engineered habitat created was inadequate to sustain population growth, and/or that relatively high water discharge and nesting densities coupled with low reproductive rates and high emigration rates could lead to rapid declines in the plover population. Continued research is needed to determine the effects of these factors on long-term population growth. Our results suggest that habitat creation could be a viable short-term solution to population declines in shorebird populations limited by habitat loss, but high densities and increased predation associated with habitat creation indicate that other, long-term solutions may be required.Ph. D.
23
Catlin, Daniel Herbert. "Population Dynamics of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) on the Missouri River". Diss., Virginia Tech, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/27442.
Texto completo da fonteResumo:
Habitat loss and predation are threatening many shorebird populations worldwide. While habitat preservation often is preferable, sometimes habitat needs to be restored or created in order to stave off immediate declines. The Great Plains population of piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) was listed as threatened in 1986, and habitat loss and predation appear to be limiting the growth of this population. On the Missouri River, piping plovers nest on sandbars, but the damming of the mainstem of the Missouri in the mid-twentieth century reduced the natural capacity of the Missouri River to create sandbar habitat. In 2004, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) implemented a habitat creation project on the Gavins Point Reach of the Missouri River (stretch of river immediately downriver from the Gavins Point Dam) in an effort to promote recovery of piping plovers and the endangered least tern (Sternula antillarum). The USACE built 3 sandbars in 2004 â 2005 and built another sandbar on Lewis and Clark Lake in 2007. We studied the population dynamics of piping plovers in relationship to this newly engineered habitat. We monitored 623 nests on 16 sandbar complexes, to evaluate habitat selection, determine the factors affecting nesting success, and compare nesting success between natural and engineered habitat. From these 623 nests, we banded 357 adults and 685 chicks to investigate the factors affecting adult and juvenile survival. We used a logistic-exposure model to calculate nest survival. Adult and juvenile survival was calculated using Cormack-Jolly-Seber based models in Program MARK. We used the estimates from these studies to create a matrix population model for piping plovers nesting on the Gavins Point Reach. We used this model to predict the effects of engineered habitat on the population growth rate.
Piping plovers selected for engineered sandbars and against natural and natural/modified habitats. Daily survival rate (DSR) on engineered habitats was significantly higher than on natural or natural modified habitats (log odds: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.20 â 6.08). Predator exclosures around nests did not affect DSR after controlling for the effects of date, nest age, and clutch size. Piping plover juvenile survival to recruitment was negatively related to nesting density on the relatively densely populated engineered sandbars. On the less dense natural sandbars, survival to recruitment was positively correlated with density. Adult survival did not appear to be related to density within our study. Movement within the study area was related also to density. Juveniles from densely populated engineered sandbars were more likely to leave engineered habitat to nest on natural sandbars than were juveniles hatched on less densely populated engineered sandbars. Movements among sandbars by breeding adults suggested that adults preferred engineered habitat. It is possible that juveniles moved to natural habitats because they were unable to compete with adults for the more desirable engineered habitats. Adults and juveniles emigrated from the study area at a higher rate after the 2006 breeding season, a year when water discharge was higher, nesting densities were higher, and reproductive success was lower (as a result of predation) than in the other years. Deterministic modeling suggested that engineered habitat significantly increased population growth. Decreased productivity over time and associated predicted negative population growth suggest that the amount of engineered habitat created was inadequate to sustain population growth, and/or that relatively high water discharge and nesting densities coupled with low reproductive rates and high emigration rates could lead to rapid declines in the plover population. Continued research is needed to determine the effects of these factors on long-term population growth. Our results suggest that habitat creation could be a viable short-term solution to population declines in shorebird populations limited by habitat loss, but high densities and increased predation associated with habitat creation indicate that other, long-term solutions may be required.Ph. D.
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Secchi, Eduardo Resende, e n/a. "Modelling the population dynamics and viability analysis of franciscana (Pontoporia blainvillei) and Hector�s dolphins (Cephalorhynchus hectori) under the effects of bycatch in fisheries, parameter uncertainty and stochasticity". University of Otago. Department of Zoology, 2006. http://adt.otago.ac.nz./public/adt-NZDU20070118.162020.
Texto completo da fonteResumo:
Incidental mortality in fisheries, especially gillnets, is one of the most important causes of decline of many species of cetaceans around the globe. Local populations of franciscana, Pontoporia blainvillei, and Hector�s dolphins, Cephalorhynchus hectori, have been subject to high levels of mortality in gillnets for several decades. This is due to a combination of extensive overlap in distribution of these coastal dolphins and large numbers of fishing nets.
Stage-specific population dynamic models (without environmental stochasticity) suggest that both species have a low potential for population growth of approximately 0.2% (95% CI: -3.7% to 4.2%) to 3.4% (95% CI: 1.6% to 6.4%) for franciscana and 0.85% (95% CI: -1.0% to 2.6%) for Hector�s dolphins. Although the two species have similar population growth rates, they result from different life history strategies. Franciscana has a relatively low adult survival rate (0.86; SD = 0.016) which is compensated by a relatively high reproductive potential. The latter is a combination of early reproduction and high fecundity. Hector�s dolphin has a low reproductive potential, which is a combination of late reproduction and low fecundity, which is probably compensated by a relatively high adult survival rate (0.92; SD = 0.02) Apparent differences in growth rate among franciscana populations are possibly due to a combination of varying population-specific reproductive potential and, in some populations, inaccuracy in parameter estimates. Inaccuracy in estimating natural survival rates is also a cause for the low growth rate of Hector�s dolphins.
The estimated low population growth rates of these species are insufficient to compensate for current levels of fishing-related mortality in some local populations, especially when environmental and/or demographic stochasticity is considered. Under these circumstances Banks Peninsula population would have a negative mean population growth rate of 0.54% (95% CI: -2.2% to 0.9%) and would decrease below its initial size in approximately 74% of the simulations. Stochasticity alone would decrease considerably the probability of the Banks Peninsula population to grow and recover from past and current high bycatch levels. Effects of stochasticity were also high for one of the franciscana stocks (i.e. stock from Franciscana Management Area II). In other areas (e.g. West Coast of the South Island; franciscana stock from FMA I) fishing effort and bycatch mortality rate seem not to be impeding population growth. Even in a stochastic environment and under current levels of fishing effort, the West Coast population and the franciscana stock from FMA I would grow at a positive rate of 0.32% (95% CI: -1.2% to 1.8%) and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.2 to 7.2%), respectively. Parameter uncertainty does not change the conclusion that immediate and extreme limitations on fishing practice and effort are necessary to increase the chances of recovery for some local populations/stocks.
Fishing effort in New Zealand is regulated by a quota system. The quota system, the low number of fishing boats and the relatively low overlap between fishing nets and dolphins are probably the reasons for the positive population growth of Hector�s dolphins from the West Coast of the South Island. On the other hand, not even the Marine Mammal Sanctuary is sufficient to avoid negative mean population growth rate of Hector�s dolphins under current levels of fishing effort off Banks Peninsula. In Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina, where franciscana occurs, gillnet fisheries are not regulated. In some areas, faced with a declining fish stocks, fishermen have increased fishing effort to compensate for reduced catches, and the bycatch of franciscana has increased as a consequence. Strategies aiming at the conservation of these two species are likely to benefit other components of the ecosystem. Especially in the case of franciscana, reducing fishing effort is likely to promote the recovery of depleted fish stocks.
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Ozut, Deniz. "Evaluation Of The Adaptation Process Of A Reintroduced Anatolian Mouflon (ovis Gmelinii Anatolica) Population Through Studying Its Demography And Spatial Ecology". Phd thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12611746/index.pdf.
Texto completo da fonteResumo:
In this thesis the demography, home range and habitat selection of a
reintroduced population of Anatolian mouflon (Ovis gmelinii anatolica),
which had a single remaining population, was studied to evaluate the
reintroduction success and determine the conservation management
interventions.
For this purpose among 104 individuals reintroduced in Sariyar
Wildlife Protection Area (Ankara, Turkey), 40 adults were radio-collared
and 28 juvenile were ear-tagged and monitored from 2005 to 2009. The
survival of the population according to the age groups (females, 0: 0.5423,
1: 0.60, 2: 0.5316, 3: 0.6637, 3+: 0.6728) and the fecundity of adult females (2:
0.2260, 3: 0.2034, 3+: 0.2034) are estimated. A population viability analysis
was performed and the persistence of the population within the next 20
years was estimated. Increasing the survival rate of adult female through
conservation or restocking the population with at least six adult females
every year decreased the risk of extinction in the near future considerably.
The year-round home ranges of the individuals ranged between 805
&ndash3435 ha. (Mean ±
SE: 1934 ±
140 ha). The movements of the tracked individuals followed seasonal patterns: centers of activities changed according to seasons in 80% of the adult mouflon. Reintroduced mouflon selected southern aspects (p=0.001), increasing slopes &ndash
especially medium to high slope terrain &ndash
(slope >
30°
, p=0.002), and distant locations to villages and roads. Results indicate that appropriate protective measures should be implemented immediately to mitigate the causes of juvenile mortality. Restocking the population for the next 10 years with adult females would have a stabilizing effect on the declining population and will act as a buffering mechanism during the adaptation period to the new area.
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Whitehead, Amy Louise. "Tools for managing threatened species: improving the effectiveness of whio conservation". Thesis, University of Canterbury. School of Biological Sciences, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/3230.
Texto completo da fonteResumo:
Conservation frequently requires immediate responses to prevent further declines of imperilled populations, often in the absence of detailed information. Consequently, population distribution patterns are often used to guide conservation decisions. However, distribution patterns may be misleading if threats have restricted species to low quality habitat. This issue means it is not always apparent where management efforts should be concentrated for maximum conservation gain. My aim was to improve the effectiveness of threatened species conservation by investigating this issue in whio (blue duck - Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos), a New Zealand riverine duck that has undergone serious declines. I used population and spatial modelling to answer three questions: (1) what are the threats to whio, (2) how can these threats be managed, and (3) managing which whio habitats will give the greatest conservation gain? A spatial analysis of contemporary whio habitat using boosted regression trees revealed whio are only secure in 1 % of their historical range, with predation likely causing significantly greater range contraction (83 %) than habitat modification (29 %). In that analysis, I identified 39,000 km of occupiable whio habitat, providing extensive opportunities to expand their contemporary range through management. Intensive monitoring identified stoats (Mustela erminea) as the primary cause of whio population declines, with stoat predation severely reducing whio nest survival (10 % and 54 % in the absence and presence of stoat control, respectively). Population viability analyses indicated whio populations in the absence of stoat control were at high risk of extinction (λ = 0.74) but large-scale, low-intensity predator control was useful for short-term whio conservation. However, whio populations with stoat control still had a declining population growth rate (λ = 0.95) and further intervention may be required to prevent whio extinctions. Such management needs to target high quality habitat to ensure the greatest conservation value. Analyses of habitat quality revealed whio fitness was highest in warm, low gradient rivers, although fitness gradients differed between North and South Islands. Comparisons of fitness relationships with spatial model predictions showed that South Island whio occurred more frequently in poorer habitat, indicating they may occupy a relict distribution. Limited resources for conservation mean identifying effective management techniques is critical for species persistence. My modelling approach enabled the effectiveness of whio management to be assessed and areas of high quality habitat where such management should provide the greatest benefit to be identified. These tools are directly applicable to the conservation management of many threatened species by quickly informing managers in situations where distributions may not follow habitat quality.
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Luna, Soledad. "Population Dynamics And Factors Affecting Spiny Lobster Small Scale Fisheries". Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2018. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-234815.
Texto completo da fonteResumo:
This dissertation analyses the effects of current fisheries practices and management regulations of the green spiny lobster (Panulirus gracilis) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Region (ETP). P. gracilis has reached a critical state in the ETP. Country-based studies report that between 60 and 98% of lobsters caught in the wild are under the minimum landing size (MLS). This means that spiny lobsters are being extracted before reproducing and contributing to the replenishment of interconnected populations. The recovery of green spiny lobster populations in the ETP and the future maintenance of a sustainable fishery will depend on effective management decisions and on taking in account environmental factors that influence the population dynamics of the lobsters.
In the first study (Chapter 2), the B52 Spiny Lobster individual based simulation model was used for conducting a population viability analysis to quantify the effect of current fishing practices and the effect of varying management regulations on minimum landing size (MLS) and fishing effort. The best suit of regulations to maintain the highest abundance, production of offspring and catch is to protect juveniles and egged females, and to establish a MLS that assures the reproduction of individuals before being extracted. This study revealed regional variations, however the patterns and the causes for variation were not yet clear. This led to the next chapters in this dissertation.
In Chapter 3, I used a meta-analysis to explore regional lobster variability by comparing published studies from the ETP. The objective was to identify patterns of variation related to geographic and environmental factors of the region that can inform the establishment and evaluation of coordinated regulations. Morphological relationships showed to be more variable at northern latitudes, where the mean annual sea surface temperatures are higher than at lower temperatures at the Equator. In terms of management, MLS regulations should be adapted accounting for the effect of sea surface temperature and its variation. Additionally, it was observed that monitoring methodologies are not standardized within the region and even in some cases, neither within countries. Furthermore, in most places monitoring of the spiny lobster fishery happens sporadically, only in Galapagos takes place every year. Identifying patterns of variations can improve the accuracy of prediction models which can help to explore, design, and apply more effective management measures, as well as promote regional coordination to support the recovery and maintenance of spiny lobsters.
In Chapter 4, I contrast current Ecuadorian minimum landing size (MLS) regulation to lobster empirical measurements within Ecuador in order to recognize potential pitfalls for management enforcement. I used linear regression and multiple regression models with the objective of identifying potential relative size variations of the individuals caught in the wild over time and in the different fishing areas in Ecuador, as well as to analyse the effect of locality, sex, age and mean SST on the tail length/total length ratio. Morphological relations were significantly different among sexes, in time and by all sites. Most importantly, this study shows that current minimum size regulations are not applicable to all sites. Additionally, I found that water temperature has a significant effect on morphological relationship variations. However, it was not the main site-specific variable responsible for explaining such variations. In general, this work emphasizes the need for length data collection standardization and the consideration of temporal and spatial variation implications in national and regional fishery management planning, enforcement and evaluation.
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Rosenblatt, Connor James. "Integrated Population Modeling of Northern Bobwhite and Co-occupancy with Open-land-Dependent Birds in Southern Ohio". The Ohio State University, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1588245826169158.
Texto completo da fonte
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Veiga, Joana Beschorner da. "TAMANHO E DENSIDADE DAS POPULAÇÕES DE Alouatta guariba clamitans CABRERA, 1940 (PRIMATES, ATELIDAE) NO CAMPO DE INSTRUÇÃO DE SANTA MARIA E ÁREAS VIZINHAS". Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, 2013. http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/5309.
Texto completo da fonteResumo:
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorThis dissertation evaluated the age-sex structure, group size and population density of Alouatta guariba clamitans in 40 forest fragments. We also present a Population Viability Analysis for the subspecies. The study was conducted at Campo de Instrução de Santa Maria (CISM), an area of 5,876 ha belonging to the Ministry of Defense (Brazilian Army) and surrounding areas, located in the municipality of Santa Maria (Rio Grande do Sul State, South Brazil). The fieldwork was conducted from March 2012 to February 2013, totaling 58 days and sampling effort of 431 hours. Our data suggest high mortality in the brown howler monkey populations at CISM. The record of low densities, low occupancy rates in fragments and small group size supports our conclusions. Statistical analyzes showed significant differences between the current population parameters and the previously registered. The PVA results suggest the fragment size and adult female survival as the best parameters contributing for the population growth. Yellow fever is an important threat, especially if the incidence of new outbreaks is high. For the long-term persistence of A. g. clamitans at CISM, the minimum viable population must be at least 573 individuals living in a minimum suitable forest area of 516 ha, which is perfectly plausible for the CISM area. In Rio Grande do Sul state there are practically no conservation units, especially in the western range of the distribution of the brown howler monkey and reinforces the important role of CISM in this scenario, although not a conservation unit. Therefore, if the metapopulation dynamics is granted, it is able to ensure regional long-term survival of A. g. clamitans, unless it suffers more intensely other impacts (such as a new yellow fever outbreak) in a near future.
A presente dissertação avaliou a abundância e densidade das populações, o tamanho e a composição sexo-etária de grupos sociais de Alouatta guariba clamitans em 40 fragmentos florestais no município de Santa Maria. Além disso, apresenta uma análise de viabilidade populacional para a subespécie. Este estudo foi conduzido no Campo de Instrução de Santa Maria (CISM), uma área com 5.876 ha pertencente ao Ministério da Defesa (Exército Brasileiro) localizada no município de Santa Maria (Depressão Central do Rio Grande do Sul), e em áreas particulares do seu entorno. Foram realizadas no período de março de 2012 a fevereiro de 2013 doze campanhas de censo, totalizando 58 dias de campo com esforço amostral de 431 horas. Nossos dados sugerem que houve alta mortalidade nas populações de bugios do CISM após o último levantamento populacional, realizado em 2004. Essa conclusão é apoiada principalmente pela constatação de baixas densidades, reduzidas taxas de ocupação dos fragmentos e grupos com tamanho inferior ao encontrado anteriormente na mesma área. As análises estatísticas mostram que os parâmetros populacionais atuais diferem significativamente dos registrados anteriormente. Os resultados da AVP sugerem que o tamanho do fragmento, a sobrevivência e disponibilidade de fêmeas adultas são os parâmetros que melhor contribuem para as tendências de crescimento populacional. A febre amarela é uma ameaça importante, especialmente se a incidência de novos surtos for alta e a atual composição populacional, de acordo com o modelo, não foi capaz de se recuperar adequadamente em 100 anos. Para a persistência de A. g. clamitans no CISM a população mínima viável deve ser de pelo menos 573 indivíduos em uma área >516 ha de habitat adequado. O que é perfeitamente viável para o CISM, uma vez que o fragmento SAR possui uma área de 977,3 ha. Além disso, no Rio Grande do Sul atualmente praticamente inexistem unidades de conservação, especialmente na metade oeste da distribuição do bugio ruivo. Isso ressalta o papel importante do CISM, ainda que não se trate de uma Unidade de Conservação, logo, se assegurada, a dinâmica de metapopulação é capaz de garantir a sobrevivência regional A. g. clamitans em longo prazo, a menos que a mesma venha a sofrer mais intensamente outros impactos (ex: novo surto de febre amarela) em um futuro próximo.
30
Rautiainen, P. (Pirjo). "Population biology of the Primula sibirica group species inhabiting frequently disturbed seashore meadows: implications for management". Doctoral thesis, University of Oulu, 2006. http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9514280253.
Texto completo da fonteResumo:
Abstract
Many plant species inhabiting the seashore meadows of the Bothnian Bay, especially early successional ones, have become threatened. Isostatic land uplift creates virgin land for early successional species to colonise. However, at the same time it gradually elevates the habitat and eventually makes the habitat unsuitable for them. Disturbances of the waterfront may slow down succession and create new empty sites. In order to persist on the shores, pioneer species have to be able to colonise new sites by seeds, vegetative propagules or growth.
In this thesis I studied the status of an endangered early successional grass species, A. fulva var. pendulina, at the Liminka Bay. According to a matrix population model based on eight years of observations (1992–1999), the population seemed not to be in immediate danger of extinction. However, simulations based on four-year field observations (2000–2003) indicated that if the current trend continues, the species will decrease considerably in area in the next 30 years.
In the field studies no seedlings or viable seeds of A. fulva were found. In spite of this, high genotypic diversity was found in the A. fulva population, suggesting that sexual reproduction has taken place at some time during the history of the population. Analysis of the population structure revealed a low level of genotypic differentiation between subpopulations and significant sub-structuring within subpopulations. The overall pattern of genetic variation suggests that the population has characters of both stepping-stone and metapopulation models.
The results of the study on the ability of a seashore plant Potentilla anserina ssp. egedii to change its allocation of resources to sexual and vegetative reproduction according to competitive stress implied that the species can modify the allocation of resources to different life-history traits. For a plant living in disturbance-prone environment, it may be beneficial to be able to rapidly track the competition-free space formed by disturbances by changing its reproductive pattern.
Management studies on three endangered seashore plant species showed that deterioration of suitable habitats of A. fulva and Primula nutans var. jokelae could be slowed down by management, and the vegetative and/or sexual reproduction of these species was enhanced. However, in the case of Puccinellia phryganodes, no positive response to management was observed.
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Kuningas, Sanna. "Population dynamics and distribution of northern Norwegian killer whales in relation to wintering herring". Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4878.
Texto completo da fonteResumo:
The northern Norwegian killer whale (Orcinus orca) is an important predator but little is known about its population dynamics, particular in response to changes in its main prey, the highly dynamic Norwegian spring spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus). The main aims of this thesis were to estimate killer whale population parameters, to explore the future viability of the population, and to explore the response of this predator to changes in distribution and abundance of its main prey over the last 25 years. Population size was estimated as ~ 700 individuals, taking heterogeneity of capture probabilities into account and correcting for unmarked animals. Apparent survival rates of 0.974 (SE = 0.006) for adult males and 0.984 (SE = 0.006) for adult females were estimated accounting for temporary emigration, transience and trap-dependency. Temporary emigration was greater for males than females. Calving intervals ranged from 3 to 14 years (mean = 5.06); equivalent to 0.197 calves per mature female per year. Future viability of the killer whale population was evaluated under various plausible scenarios. The baseline scenario using the best available information predicted a viable population and indicated that the population may be increasing size. Analysis of data on naval sonar activity, killer whale sightings and herring abundance showed that naval sonar activity appeared to have a negative effect on killer whale presence during a period of low prey availability. A time lag of four years was found between the first sign of NSS herring changing its distribution and reduced killer whale presence inside the fjord system. Analysis of energy budgets showed that killer whales spent more time travelling/foraging in 2005/06 than the 1990s. The fjord system was inferred to be a preferred habitat for killer whales when there was a higher density of NSS herring in this area compared to offshore area.
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Roxburgh, David James. "Prey and range use of lions on Tswalu Kalahari Reserve". Diss., Pretoria : [s.n.], 2009. http://upetd.up.ac/thesis/available/etd-12132009-154240.
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Almeida, Inaê Guion de. "Viabilidade Populacional de Sotalia guianensis (van BÉNÉDEN, 1864) (Cetacea, Delphinidae) no Complexo Estuarino-Lagunar de Cananéia, Estado de São Paulo". Universidade de São Paulo, 2014. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/91/91131/tde-04122014-085521/.
Texto completo da fonteResumo:
Sotalia guianensis é um pequeno cetáceo costeiro encontrado ao longo do Oceano Atlântico Sul-Ocidental. Está exposta a inúmeras ameaças, tais como captura acidental em redes de pesca, tráfego de embarcações e turismo. A análise de viabilidade populacional (AVP) é uma forma de prever as flutuações e a probabilidade de persistência ou extinção de uma espécie ou população ao longo do tempo, incorporando dados demográficos, ecológicos e ambientais de populações reais em simulações computacionais de modelos estocásticos e determinísticos. O presente estudo teve como objetivos estimar densidade, abundância e realizar uma AVP para S. guianensis no Complexo Estuarino-Lagunar de Cananéia, São Paulo. Estimativas de abundância e densidade foram obtidas entre 2011 e 2012, utilizando o método de transecção linear com amostragem de distâncias, com 1.339,91 km percorridos e 83h05min em esforço. Avistou-se 241 grupos, compostos por 1 a 20 indivíduos. O programa Distance, com modelo half-normal e ajuste coseno e menor valor de AIC, estimou uma abundância de 193 indivíduos (95%IC: 158 - 237) e densidade de 2,5538 ind/km2 (95%IC: 2,0812 - 3,1337). A média de tamanho de grupo é 4,1504 indivíduos (95%IC: 3,7666 - 4,5734). De forma geral, a espécie apresenta grandes variações ao longo de sua distribuição com relação ao tamanho populacional, densidade, tamanho de grupos, distribuição nos habitats e residência. Tais diferenças estão associadas possivelmente às características físicas e ambientais de cada habitat, que interferem direta ou indiretamente na distribuição e dinâmica populacional da espécie e suas presas. Para a AVP a população foi tratada como não suplementada, sem dispersão, sem remoção, sem depressão endogâmica e a extinção foi definida como a permanência de apenas um sexo. O valor inicial da população é 193 indivíduos e demais parâmetros demográficos e reprodutivos foram estimados com base na literatura disponível. Variações de parâmetros específicos (mortalidade, capacidade de suporte do ambiente (K), variação ambiental na reprodução e catástrofe) foram inseridas nos cenários para avaliar as tendências populacionais sob diferentes ameças. Utilizou-se o programa VORTEX 9.99b. A AVP apontou para o declínio e extinção (P(E) = 1,000) da população em menos de 300 anos em todos os cenários, com taxas de crescimento de -0,082 (SD = 0,120), - 0,049 (SD = 0,107) e -0,086 (SD = 0,062), para os cenários 1, 2 e 3 respectivamente. O tempo médio para extinção foi estimado em 39,6 anos para o cenário 1, 57,3 anos para o cenário 2 e 3,3 anos para o cenário 3. As projeções geradas pela AVP apontaram cenários pessimistas, o que pode estar relacionado ao pequeno tamanho da população. As análises mostram que variações no tamanho populacional, mortalidade, K e catástrofes podem influenciar fortemente a persistência de pequenas populações. O estuário de Cananéia é um ambiente favorável e bem preservado que oferece recursos suficientes para S. guianensis, entretanto, o aumento das atividades antrópicas na área pode levar a mudanças na dinâmica populacional e alterações no habitat, comprometendo sua persistência ao longo do tempo.Sotalia guianensis is a small coastal cetacean found along the south-western Atlantic Ocean. Through its range, is exposed to numerous threats, such as bycatch in fishing nets, vessel traffic and tourism. Population viability analysis (PVA) is a way to predict the trends and the probability of persistence or extinction of a species or population over time, incorporating demographic, ecological and environmental data of real populations in computer simulations of stochastic and deterministic models. The present study aimed to estimate density, abundance and population viability of S. guianensis in the estuarine-lagoon complex. Estimates of abundance and density were obtained between 2011 and 2012, using the distance sampling method and linear transects, with 1,339 .91 km and 83h05min in effort. It were recorded 241 groups (n) with group size between 1 to 20 individuals. The Distance program, with half-normal model and adjust cosine with the lowest AIC, estimated an abundance of 193 individuals (95% CI: 158-237) and density of 2.5538 ind/km2 (95% CI: 2.0812 - 3.1337). The average group size is 4.1504 individuals (95% IC: 3.7666-4.5734). In general, the species presents large variations throughout its distribution regarding population size, density, groups size, distribution in habitat and residence. Such differences are possibly associated with the physical characteristics of each habitat and environmental conditions that interfere directly or indirectly in the distribution and population dynamics of the species and its prey. For the PVA population was treated as not supplemented, without dispersion, without removal, without inbreeding depression, and extinction was defined as the presence of only one sex. The initial population size was 193 individuals and other demographic and reproductive parameters were estimated based on available literature for the species. Variations of specific parameters (mortality, carrying capacity of the environment, environmental variation on reproduction and catastrophe) were used to evaluate population trends under different threats and scenarios. It was used the VORTEX program v. 9.99 b. AVP pointed to the decline and extinction (P(E) = 1,000) of the population in less than 300 years in all scenarios, with growth rates of -0.082 (SD = 0.120), -0.049 (SD = 0.107) and - 0.086 (SD = 0.062), for scenarios 1, 2 and 3 respectively. The average time to extinction was estimated at 39.6 years for scenario 1, 57.3 years for scenario 2 and 3.3 years for scenario 3. The projections generated by the AVP showed pessimistic scenarios, which may be related to the small size of the population. The analyses show that variations in population size, mortality, carrying capacity and disasters can strongly influence the persistence of small populations. Cananéia estuary is a well preserved environment that offers sufficient resources to S. guianensis, however, the increase in anthropogenic activities in the estuary may lead to changes in population dynamics and habitat quality, compromising their persistence over time.
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Sato, Yu. "Genetic research into Japanese golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos japonica) for conservation managements". Kyoto University, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/242652.
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Hawkins, Emily. "Demography, Movement Patterns, and Habitat Selection of Blanding's Turtles at Canadian Nuclear Laboratories in Chalk River, Ontario". Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/35563.
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The development and implementation of effective species and population-specific management strategies requires population-specific information. To demonstrate the relative extirpation risk associated with various road mortality scenarios for a population of Blanding’s turtles at Canadian Nuclear Laboratories in Chalk River, Ontario, a Population Viability Analysis was conducted. Road mortality of two adult females every ten years resulted in population extirpation within 200 years relative to a stable population not experiencing road mortality. To accommodate informed decision-making for the management of this species at risk, the movement patterns and habitat selection of this Blanding’s turtle population were described. There was no significant difference between males and females in distance moved between relocations in either the spring or the summer, but turtles moved greater distances in the spring than in the summer. Annual and seasonal home range size did not differ between the sexes or between spring and summer periods. A compositional analysis indicated Blanding’s turtles preferred marsh habitats over bog, swamp, lake, and upland. Matched-paired logistic regression was used to determine selection of microhabitat features, such as type of vegetation, in the spring and summer. Turtles preferred sites with warmer air temperatures, shallower water, a higher availability of open water, and greater coverage of emergent and floating vegetation types in the spring period. In the summer period, turtles preferred sites characterized by cooler, deeper water, a higher availability of open water, and greater coverage of emergent and floating vegetation types. This population of Blanding’s turtles appears to be relatively small and the continued threat of road mortality indicates a delicate situation for its persistence. Considering seasonally preferred habitats will best inform management decisions for seasonal work restrictions and future development plans.
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Berglind, Sven-Åke. "Population Dynamics and Conservation of the Sand Lizard (Lacerta agilis) on the Edge of its Range". Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Evolutionär funktionsgenomik, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-5750.
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The sand lizard (Lacerta agilis) reaches the northern periphery of its distribution in south-central Sweden, where small, isolated relict populations occur in pine heath forests on sandy sediments. Modern forestry and fire suppression have reduced the amount of suitable open habitat for the species in this area and seem to be important for its decline. Main objectives of this thesis were to evaluate the efficiency of different management strategies, and if the sand lizard can function as an umbrella species for biodiversity conservation. Over a 16-year period, the estimated annual numbers of adult females in each of two study populations fluctuated between 23 and 3. Simulations of stochastic future population growth showed that the risk of extinction was highly dependent on population growth rate, which in turn was strongly affected by juvenile survival as indicated by elasticity analysis. Simulations of population growth for 50 years showed that the quasi-extinction risk (threshold ≤ 10 females) was > 56% for patches ≤ 1 ha; which is the observed average size of suitable habitat for inhabited patches during a 10-year period. In managed metapopulation networks with highly co-fluctuating local populations, among-population dispersal was not important to reduce extinction risks over a 50-year horizon. In the field the preferred microhabitat of sand lizards was successfully restored using tree felling and patch-soil scarification. The lizards gradually colonized the restored patches, and 16 years after restoration, sand lizards where mainly found there. Pine-heath area, and patch area within individual pine heaths, were of major importance for long-term population persistence at regional and landscape scales, respectively. Analyses of nested species subsets and an umbrella index suggest that the sand lizard can be a useful cross-taxonomic umbrella species on both scales for other red-listed species.
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Inoue, Kentaro. "A Comprehensive Approach to Conservation Biology: From Population Genetics to Extinction Risk Assessment for Two Species of Freshwater Mussels". Miami University / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1437683696.
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Ok, Meltem. "Past, Present Status And Future Of The Mediterranean Monk Seal (monachus Monachus, Hermann 1779) In The Northeastern Mediterranean". Master's thesis, METU, 2006. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12608085/index.pdf.
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Status and distribution of the Mediterranean monk seal in the northeastern Mediterranean were studied between October 2003 and December 2005. In total, 7 research cruises and 8 research visits were carried out to the region in the study period. The study was generally focused on two regions. First region was mainly around the Cilicia basin in the northeastern Mediterranean where a known Mediterranean monk seal colony (the Cilician colony) inhabits. Second region was around the Gulf of iskenderun where the population status of the monk seals was unknown.In the northeastern Mediterranean, all monk seal caves especially those used
for breeding have been checked for whelping and monitored during the study period. In total, 7 pups were found including one death pup in the study period. Observations of the breeding behavior of the species indicated that, whelping also
takes place in 2 new caves in addition to the 39 caves already reported for the study area in the earlier studies. Increase in the number of breeding caves showed that the
breeding sites of the species has been expanded within the last 5 years. The Cilician colony size was estimated as 30 individuals in 2005. Identification catalog for each
individual in the Cilician colony was prepared. Finally, population viability analysis (PVA) for the Cilician monk seal colony was carried out by evaluating the vital
parameters of the species, which have been collected since 1994. This analysis was carried out for both pre-conservation phase and the post-conservation phase. In post
conservation phase, the survival and fecundity rate of the Cilician colony was found as 0.976 and 0.169 respectively whereas these values were estimated as 0.902 and
0.200 respectively in pre-conservation phase. It was found that there is a 26.9% risk that the monk seal colony abundance will fall below the existing level (30 individuals) at least once during the next 20 years and there is also 0.2% risk that the monk seal colony abundance will fall below 12 at least once during the next 20 years. The risk was found as 21.7% by evaluating the status of the colony in preconservation phase. It was the first PVA study for this species, in which all the parameters used in the analysis were based on the study population, instead of the congeneric Hawaiian Monk Seal. Prior to this study, although monk seals have been frequently sighted by local people in the region, status of the Mediterranean monk seals and presence of the
suitable habitats for the species in the Gulf of iskenderun was unknown. Therefore, population status of the Mediterranean monk seal in the Gulf of iskenderun and suitable habitats were investigated. In total, 30 caves were discovered and 7 of them were classified suitable for the Mediterranean monk seal. In addition, a monk seal information network was established in the region in order to gain information about the species especially when the individuals are sighted (alive, injured or death). In total, 51 sighting reports were obtained from local people via the Mediterranean monk seal information network during the study period. Since there are sampling difficulties due to critical status of the Mediterranean monk seal, alternative sampling techniques were investigated in order
to find answers to questions related to the monk seal colony inhabiting in the northeastern Mediterranean. For identification of the individuals, comparison of the individuals and monitoring the individuals, 3D model construction technique from photographs was tested as an alternative photoidentification technique for the Mediterranean monk seal. It was found that at least 100 reference points were
needed to construct the 3D model of the monk seal.
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McDonald, Amy Elizabeth. "Improving the success of a translocation of black mudfish (Neochanna diversus)". The University of Waikato, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10289/2345.
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All of New Zealand's five endemic species of mudfish (Neochanna) are threatened, and translocation has been recommended as an option for conservation. This research undertakes a translocation of black mudfish (Neochanna diversus) into wetland margins of Lake Kaituna, in the Waikato region, and addresses research questions applicable to improving translocation success. Results from this research are intended to aid possible future translocations of the more threatened Northland mudfish (Neochanna heleios) and other genetically distinct populations of black mudfish. Captive rearing of juveniles collected from the wild is currently the most feasible option for sourcing translocation stock. Mudfish juveniles (greater than 25 mm T.L.) had greater survival rates, compared to mudfish fry less than 25 mm T.L. Mudfish growth was far greater when fed on a combined diet of brine shrimp (Artemia salina) and white worms (Enchytraeus albidus) than when fed exclusively on brine shrimp. Temperature was found to have a small effect on mudfish growth, with a slightly greater growth in fish at 15 C than those at 10 C. The introduced species Gambusia affinis has been the subject of concern for mudfish conservation and commonly found at wetland sites suitable for mudfish translocation. Found to prey on mudfish fry and eggs in aquaria, it was important to determine the effects of Gambusia density prior to undertaking a translocation to a location where Gambusia were present. Investigations were made into the effect of Gambusia density on black mudfish juveniles in 9 outdoor mesocosms. Increasing Gambusia density was found to have an inhibitory effect on black mudfish growth. This may be due to increased competition for food, a theory supported by analysis of zooplankton communities, where, in the presence of Gambusia, large zooplankton had been removed and smaller rotifers flourished. Monitoring programmes are required to assess any impacts or improvements of mudfish populations, including those created by translocation. A Gee minnow trapping programme in outdoor mesocosms was conducted to test the reliability of traps, finding that water depth, mudfish density, mudfish memory and trap shyness had no effect on the trapability of mudfish. Trap position was found to have the most significant effect, with a greater number of mudfish caught when traps were set overnight at the surface than when set on the bottom of mesocosms. Black mudfish adults and juveniles were translocated into 18 pools (~1 m diameter) on the wetland margins of Lake Kaituna in September 2006, followed by monthly monitoring. Water quality monitoring and an assessment of hydrology and vegetation was undertaken. Habitat characterisation was found to be a key factor, with correlations between water quality data and trapping results finding fewer fish remaining in pools with less suitable characteristics for mudfish (e.g. high turbidity and conductivity). Other species were found to have a large impact, with predation by shortfinned eels (Anguilla australis) thought to have eliminated mudfish from some pools. In addition fewer mudfish were caught in pools with Gambusia, possibly due to increased competition.
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McKenzie, Jane, e janemckenzie@malpage com. "Population demographics of New Zealand fur seals (Arctocephalus forsteri)". La Trobe University. Zoology Department, School of Life Sciences, 2006. http://www.lib.latrobe.edu.au./thesis/public/adt-LTU20080509.121141.
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Assessment of trophic interactions between increasing populations of New Zealand fur seals (Arctocephalus forsteri) and fisheries in southern Australia is limited due to a lack of species specific demographic data and an understanding of the factors influencing population growth. To establish species specific demographic parameters a cross-sectional sample of New Zealand fur seal females (330) and males (100) were caught and individually-marked on Kangaroo Island, South Australia between 2000 and 2003. The seals were aged through examination of a postcanine tooth, which was removed from each animal to investigate age-specific life-history parameters. Annual formation of cementum layers was confirmed and accuracy in age estimation was determined by examination of teeth removed from individuals of known-age. Indirect methods of assessing reproductive maturity based on mammary teat characteristics indicated that females first gave birth between 4-8 years of age, with an average age at reproductive maturity of 5 years. Among reproductively mature females, age-specific reproductive rates increased rapidly between 4-7 years of age, reaching maximum rates of 70-81% between 8-13 years, and gradually decreased in older females. No females older than 22 years were recorded to pup. Age of first territory tenure in males ranged from 8-10 years. The oldest female and male were 25 and 19 years old, respectively. Post-weaning growth in females was monophasic, characterised by high growth rates in length and mass during the juvenile growth stage, followed by a gradual decline in growth rates after reproductive maturity. In contrast, growth in males was biphasic and displayed a secondary growth spurt in both length and mass, which coincided with sexual and social maturation, followed by a rapid decline in growth rates. Age-specific survival rates were high (0.823-0.953) among prime-age females (8-13 yrs of age) and declined in older females. Relative change in annual pup production was strongly correlated with reproductive rates of prime-age females and adult female survival between breeding seasons.
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Fearon, Joclyn Joe. "Population assessments of priority plant species used by local communities in and around three Wild Coast reserves, Eastern Cape, South Africa". Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007059.
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The project was initiated by Eastern Cape Parks (ECP) as a request for the construction of inventories of priority species and their population levels inside three nature reserves on the Eastern Cape Wild Coast, South Africa, and to develop a strategic management plan to manage these natural resources in each reserve. Thirty key species were identified by local communities in and around Dwesa-Cwebe, Silaka and Mkambati Nature Reserves through community workshops. For forested areas belt transects of 100 m x 6 m where used. The basal circumference of key tree species within the belt transect was measured as well as the height of saplings (height < 150 m). Tree species were categorized based on densities, size class distribution (SCD) curves and values, and spatial grain. For grassland areas straight transects of 200 m long were used, along which ten 3 m x 3 m quadrates were placed at 20 m intervals. Within each grassland transect the height of herbs or tuft diameter of grasses was recorded and percentage cover estimated. Grassland species were categorized based on density, SCD curves and percentage cover. All species were placed into harvesting categories based on analysed ecological data that was collected in the field. Category 1 species were very rare or not found in the reserve and it was recommended that species be conserved and monitored. Category 2 species had low densities in the reserve indicating declining populations and was suggested that these be monitored and not harvested. Category 3 species had high densities and have potential for harvesting with strict limitations. Category 4 species were most abundant with very high densities and can be harvested within management guidelines. These categories were grouped further using social and ecological data such as harvesting risk, frequency of collection, use value and number of uses. This highlighted which species have conservation priority within each category and a decision can be made as to how intense or limited extraction should be. By incorporating GIS the distribution of each species was looked at and harvesting and non-harvesting zones established to determine where species can be extracted. Monitoring plans must consider the quantity of plant material collected, fire regimes, optimal harvesting rates and harvesting zones, and be able to pick up changes in populations. Also, it is important that the community be involved in conserving and monitoring these species. Adaptive monitoring and management must be used to steer harvesting practices in the Wild Coast reserves. This allows for the development of harvesting practices through ‘learning by doing’, and the evolution of good questions to guide monitoring decisions
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Page, Samantha Karin. "The feasibility of reintroducing African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) into the Great Fish River Nature Reserve, Eastern Cape, South Africa". Thesis, Rhodes University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1016078.
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With a declining population of roughly 3000-5000 individuals in Africa, African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are one of the most endangered carnivores in the world. As the global human population expands, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that large portions of land will be set aside for conservation, especially in developing countries. Thus, recent wild dog conservation efforts in South Africa have concentrated on establishing a managed metapopulation. A metapopulation is a group of geographically isolated subpopulations of a species that are managed (using supplementation and harvesting) to mimic natural gene flow. The Great Fish River Nature Reserve (GFRNR) in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa has been identified as a potential reserve to become part of the national wild dog metapopulation. My research aimed to conduct a feasibility assessment of the long-term (~ 25 years) success of a wild dog reintroduction into the GFRNR. This assessment included biological modelling of wild dogs and their expected prey, and determining the potential anthropogenic threats to wild dogs on the private and communal land surrounding the reserve. I used VORTEX population modelling and determined that the GFRNR is likely to have a wild dog carrying capacity of ~22 individuals. Using a 25-year modelling simulation, the most appropriate wild dog reintroduction scenario would be to reintroduce six females and four males initially and supplement the population with one female and two males in years 3, 10, 15 and 23. In addition, the harvesting/removal of one male and one female in years 10 and 20 would be required to ensure 100% population persistence and adequate genetic diversity. Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) and bushbuck (Tragelaphus scriptus) are expected to be the two most important prey species for reintroduced wild dogs in the GFRNR. Furthermore, wild dogs are likely to prefer the north-western and south-western sectors of the reserve because of the relatively high prey densities in these areas. However, regular monitoring of both the potential prey and the wild dog populations is essential to ensure persistence of the wild dogs and to prevent prey populations decreasing precipitously. Using structured questionnaire interviews (n = 128), I found that while neighbouring land owners and local communities were generally positive about the potential wild dog reintroduction (56 % of all respondents), several threats to wild dogs were identified along the reserve boundary and on the adjoining unprotected land. Some private landowners and members of rural communities around the reserve (34 %) stated that they would kill any wild dogs that dispersed onto their land. In addition, some respondents (8 %) admitted to believing in traditional uses for wild dog products (e.g. fur) which could result in the illegal killing of wild dogs outside of the GFRNR for traditional purposes. Poaching and the presence of unvaccinated domestic dogs on neighbouring land were also identified as being potential threats to a reintroduced wild dog population. However, such anthropogenic threats appear to be localised to the western and southern boundaries of the reserve. Therefore, by implementing preventative measures (such as anti-snare collars, anti-poaching patrols and vaccination against rabies and canine distemper) the likelihood of such threats occurring can be reduced. I conclude that the GFRNR can sustain a population of wild dogs and successfully contribute to South Africa‘s national metapopulation. An additional reserve will benefit the country‘s metapopulation by increasing the number of wild dogs available for translocation, thereby increasing genetic diversity and overall resilience (to environmental change, disease etc.) of South Africa‘s wild dog population. This will contribute towards the future conservation of this endangered species.
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Šťastná, Andrea. "Analýza životaschopnosti ohrožených druhů zvířat v České republice". Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-359250.
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Diploma thesis analyzes the viability of the selected species populations in the Czech Republic. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The first part contains a stochastic model simulating possible scenarios of the Eurasian lynx population size in the Czech Republic. For this model program Vortex was used. The second part is focused on Time series analysis of the Grey Partridge and the Common Kingfisher population, where data was obtained from the Czech Society for Ornithology. This analysis aims on identification of factors that may affect the viability of the two bird species.
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McClung, Andrew. "A population viability analysis of the Laysan finch (Telespiza cantans)". Thesis, 2005. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?index=0&did=982803201&SrchMode=2&sid=3&Fmt=2&VInst=PROD&VType=PQD&RQT=309&VName=PQD&TS=1234291671&clientId=23440.
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Lin, Rong-An, e 林容安. "Population viability analysis of Formosan black bears (Ursus thibetanus formosanus)". Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/50404971248105479839.
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碩士國立屏東科技大學
野生動物保育研究所
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Abstract Student ID：M9817010 Title of Thesis：Population viability analysis of Formosan black bears (Ursus thibetanus formosanus) Total Page：153 Name of Institute：Institute of Wildlife Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology Graduate Date：January 2013 Degree Conferred：Master Name of Student：Rong-An Lin Adviser：Dr. Mei-Hsiu Hwang The Contents of Abstract in This Thesis： Extinction is an important issue in conservation. Species survival is threatened by human, as well as catastrophes, demographic, environmental, genetic stochastic events. Population viability analysis（PVA）provides a quantitative means for predicting the probability of extinction and for prioritizing conservation needs. This is one of the most powerful and pervasive tools in conservation biology. To understand population viability, it is essential to know what has caused the population to decline. For bear populations two principal factors are direct human exploitation and habitat destruction. In Taiwan, poaching is one of the primary threats to Formosan black bears（Ursus thibetanus formosanus）. In this study, a population viability analysis was used to evaluate the impact of hunting on Formosan black bear, and to estimate critical hunting levels that could be used as quasi-extinction thresholds for future population modeling. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was conducted to know which model parameters are key factors that strongly determine population dynamics. We applied the VORTEX（Version 9.99b） program where each scenario was simulated 1,000 times over 100 years. Assuming an initial population size of 100~700 and a carrying capacity of 7,000 bears, the results suggested that when there was no hunting, the population size continued to increase rapidly, with the final population size growing to more than 2,000 individuals after 100 years. But when simulating hunting by increasing the mortality rates to 3%, all initial population would be in decline. However, when we simulate the impact of hunting with harvest（kill/year）, the probability of extinction within the next 100 years was over 10% for harvesting 15 bears every year. And results suggest that the female mortality rate and hunting rate have the most significant impact on population viability. To conduct a more extensive PVA, it requires a systematic monitoring program and more focused research. In summary, hunting is a key factor that strongly determines the population dynamics of bears, regardless of the fact that other potential risks have not been taken into account. Therefore, proactive conservation actions to reduce illegal hunting will be critical for ensuring long-term bear population viability. Keywords：Ursus thibetanus formosanus, hunting, population viability analysis, VORTEX, sensitivity analysis, initial population size, carrying capacity
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"Is the southwest willow flycatcher at risk of quasi-extinction? A critical evaluation of recovery units for a conservation icon". Master's thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.14849.
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abstract: The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is listed as an endangered species throughout its range in the southwestern United States. Little is known about its sub-population spatial structure and how this impacts its population viability. In conjunction with being listed as endangered, a recovery plan was produced by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, with recovery units (sub-populations) roughly based on major river drainages. In the interest of examining this configuration of sub-populations and their impact on the measured population viability, I applied a multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to a spatially extensive time series of abundance data for the southwestern willow flycatcher over the period spanning 1995-2010 estimating critical growth parameters, correlation in environmental stochasticity or "synchronicity" between sub-populations (recovery units) and extinction risk of the sub-populations and the whole. The model estimates two parameters, the mean and variance of annual growth rate. Of the models I tested, I found the strongest support for a population model in which three of the recovery units were grouped (the Lower Colorado, Gila Basin, and Rio Grande recovery units) while keeping all others separate. This configuration has 6.6 times more support for the observed data than a configuration assigning each recovery unit to a separate sub-population, which is how they are circumscribed in the recovery plan. Given the best model, the mean growth rate is -0.0234 (CI95 -0.0939, 0.0412) with a variance of 0.0597 (CI95 0.0115, 0.1134). This growth rate is not significantly different from zero and this is reflected in the low potential for quasi-extinction. The cumulative probability of the population experiencing at least an 80% decline from current levels within 15 years for some sub-populations were much higher (range: 0.129-0.396 for an 80% decline). These results suggest that the rangewide population has a low risk of extinction in the next 15 years and that the formal recovery units specified by the original recovery plan do not correspond to proper sub-population units as defined by population synchrony.Dissertation/Thesis
M.S. Biology 2012
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"Developing Behavioral Indices of Population Viability: A Case Study of California Sea Lions in the Gulf of California, Mexico". Master's thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.15085.
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abstract: Despite years of effort, the field of conservation biology still struggles to incorporate theories of animal behavior. I introduce in Chapter I the issues surrounding the disconnect between behavioral ecology and conservation biology, and propose the use of behavioral knowledge in population viability analysis. In Chapter II, I develop a framework that uses three strategies for incorporating behavior into demographic models, outline the costs of each strategy through decision analysis, and build on previous work in behavioral ecology and demography. First, relevant behavioral mechanisms should be included in demographic models used for conservation decision-making. Second, I propose rapid behavioral assessment as a useful tool to approximate demographic rates through regression of demographic phenomena on observations of related behaviors. This technique provides behaviorally estimated parameters that may be applied to population viability analysis for use in management. Finally, behavioral indices can be used as warning signs of population decline. The proposed framework combines each strategy through decision analysis to provide quantitative rules that determine when incorporating aspects of conservation behavior may be beneficial to management. Chapter III applies this technique to estimate birthrate in a colony of California sea lions in the Gulf of California, Mexico. This study includes a cost analysis of the behavioral and traditional parameter estimation techniques. I then provide in Chapter IV practical recommendations for applying this framework to management programs along with general guidelines for the development of rapid behavioral assessment.Dissertation/Thesis
M.S. Biology 2012
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Finch, Mary. "Life history and population dynamics of Eastern Sand Darter (Ammocrypta pellucida) in the lower Thames River, Ontario". Thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10012/4475.
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Eastern Sand Darter (Ammocrypta pellucida) is listed as Threatened under the Canadian Species at Risk Act. Canadian populations are declining primarily due to the siltation of sandy depositional areas, the preferred habitat of the species. Little other relevant biological information is available for most Canadian populations and only limited information is available for populations in the United States. To supplement the paucity of information, this study collected biological information on A. pellucida during field surveys in 2006- 2007 from 10 sites located around the Big Bend Conservation Area in the lower Thames River, Ontario, Canada. Collected data were used to estimate critical life history traits including: longevity, fecundity, clutch size and number, growth, survival, age-at-first-maturity and cohort age structure. Longevity was 3+ years, with age-at-first-maturity being 1+ for both sexes. A minimum of 2 clutches, were laid per year with an average clutch size of 71 eggs. Average density within in the study area was 0.36 ± 0.11 A. pellucida/m². Quantitative comparison of lower Thames River biological information with a more southerly A. pellucida population in the Little Muskingum River, Ohio, demonstrated little latitudinal variation between the populations. Data comparison suggests that localized environmental factors are affecting biological characteristics, in particular water temperature that may be controlled by differences in riparian cover and/or groundwater input. Field derived life history information was used to create a Leslie matrix model which was used for population viability analysis. Perturbation analyses of reproductive scenarios involving changes in clutch numbers and size and age-at-first maturity found large variations in the finite rate of population growth. Elasticity analyses further indicated that 0+ survival and 1+ fertility were the limiting life history parameters. Thus allowing fish to survive until first reproduction would have the largest overall impact on improving population viability. Inclusion of environmental stochasticity in the model facilitated estimation of extinction probabilities in the range of 0.13 to 0.21 within 100 years. Based on the above, it is recommended that management activities for protection and restoration of A. pellucida focus on habitat protection of nursery and spawning areas.
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Pfingsten, Ian A. "Using local climate to explain temporal variation in rare plant populations". Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/33837.
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Increased temperatures due to anthropogenic-induced climate change may raise the threat of extinction for taxa with sessile life histories (e.g., plants) in the near future. Linking climate change models to demographic models may provide useful insights into the potential effects of environmental changes on rare plants, and therefore aid in their current and future conservation. Population demographers generally agree that mechanistic models from a reductionist perspective are necessary to test assumptions in population drivers.
For the first study, I assessed the climate vulnerability of a rare plant species, Pyrrocoma radiata, with a mechanistic model of four climatically-similar populations. I used environmentally-driven demographic models to estimate vital rates and population sizes from a nonlinear, nonparametric regression with local climate variables. I assessed the utility of this environmentally-correlated, stage-structured population matrix model compared to a stationary model of independent and identically-distributed environmental stochasticity. I then simulated future population projections based on climate conditions predicted by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under opposing emission scenarios.
The second study hopes to answer population-level questions using a traditionally community-level method, non-metric multidimensional scaling, which considers correlation structure between response variables and can be used to find environmental correlates of the ordination axes. Demographic data on a threatened perennial, Astragalus tyghensis, were collected from five sites in the Tygh Valley, OR. I considered correlation structure between demographic vital rates to find environmental correlates of the ordination axes.
The search for an environmental driver of population vital rates was successful for the two study species. Previous year dry dormant season precipitation likely affects the fertility rates a year later in P. radiata populations, and dry growing season reference evapotranspiration rates positively correlated with a growth gradient in A. tyghensis. Based on predicted precipitation, P. radiata is expected to rapidly decline by 2050, but this may be due to biases in the two GCMs and reliance on only one environmental factor. The NMS ordination adequately captured most of the variation in transition elements for the years and populations from A. tyghensis demographics. I provided support to the claim that model predictions can improve with the inclusion of mechanistic relationships. The inclusion of abiotic drivers in models used to predict population trends is supported by our study and may enhance predictive power in population viability assessments under changing climates.Graduation date: 2013
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Nicholson, Jeremy Michael. "Population and genetic impacts of a 4-lane highway on black bears in eastern North Carolina". 2009. http://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_gradthes/55.
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