Livros sobre o tema "Decadal prediction"
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1
United Way of America. Strategic Planning Division., ed. What lies ahead--a mid-decade view: An environmental scan report. Alexandria, Va. (701 N. Fairfax St., Alexandria 22314-2045): United Way of America, Strategic Planning Division, 1985.
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Laermer, Richard. 2011: Trendspotting for the next decade. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008.
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2011: Trendspotting for the next decade. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008.
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T, Anderson D. L., ed. The TOGA decade: Reviewing the progress of El Niño research and prediction. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union, 1998.
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W, Willingham Warren, Angoff William 1919-, College Entrance Examination Board e Educational Testing Service, eds. Predicting college grades: An analysis of institutional trends over two decades. [Princeton, N.J.]: Educational Testing Service, 1990.
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Namita, Bhandare, ed. Vision 2020 challenges for the next decade: Hindustan Times Leadership Summit. New Delhi: Roli Books, 2010.
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V, Sawhill Isabel, ed. Challenge to leadership: Economic and social issues for the next decade. Washington, D.C: Urban Institute Press, 1988.
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Payne, Mark R., Alistair J. Hobday, Brian R. MacKenzie e Desiree Tommasi, eds. Seasonal to Decadal Prediction of Marine Ecosystems: Opportunities, Approaches, and Applications. Frontiers Media SA, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/978-2-88945-881-3.
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Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.17226/13515.
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Seasonal-To-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. National Academies Press, 2012.
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Committee on the Future of Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions, Polar Research Board, Division on Earth and Life Studies e National Research Council. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. National Academies Press, 2012.
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Committee on the Future of Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of Seasonal to Decadal Prediction, Polar Research Board, Division on Earth and Life Studies e National Research Council. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. National Academies Press, 2012.
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Committee on the Future of Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of Seasonal to Decadal Prediction, Polar Research Board, Division on Earth and Life Studies e National Research Council. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. National Academies Press, 2012.
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Laermer, Richard. 2011: Trendspotting for the Next Decade. McGraw-Hill, 2008.
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Tibaldi, Stefano, e Franco Molteni. Atmospheric Blocking in Observation and Models. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.611.
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The atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres is usually dominated by westerly winds and by planetary-scale and shorter-scale synoptic waves, moving mostly from west to east. A remarkable and frequent exception to this “usual” behavior is atmospheric blocking. Blocking occurs when the usual zonal flow is hindered by the establishment of a large-amplitude, quasi-stationary, high-pressure meridional circulation structure which “blocks” the flow of the westerlies and the progression of the atmospheric waves and disturbances embedded in them. Such blocking structures can have lifetimes varying from a few days to several weeks in the most extreme cases. Their presence can strongly affect the weather of large portions of the mid-latitudes, leading to the establishment of anomalous meteorological conditions. These can take the form of strong precipitation episodes or persistent anticyclonic regimes, leading in turn to floods, extreme cold spells, heat waves, or short-lived droughts. Even air quality can be strongly influenced by the establishment of atmospheric blocking, with episodes of high concentrations of low-level ozone in summer and of particulate matter and other air pollutants in winter, particularly in highly populated urban areas.Atmospheric blocking has the tendency to occur more often in winter and in certain longitudinal quadrants, notably the Euro-Atlantic and the Pacific sectors of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, blocking episodes are generally less frequent, and the longitudinal localization is less pronounced than in the Northern Hemisphere.Blocking has aroused the interest of atmospheric scientists since the middle of the last century, with the pioneering observational works of Berggren, Bolin, Rossby, and Rex, and has become the subject of innumerable observational and theoretical studies. The purpose of such studies was originally to find a commonly accepted structural and phenomenological definition of atmospheric blocking. The investigations went on to study blocking climatology in terms of the geographical distribution of its frequency of occurrence and the associated seasonal and inter-annual variability. Well into the second half of the 20th century, a large number of theoretical dynamic works on blocking formation and maintenance started appearing in the literature. Such theoretical studies explored a wide range of possible dynamic mechanisms, including large-amplitude planetary-scale wave dynamics, including Rossby wave breaking, multiple equilibria circulation regimes, large-scale forcing of anticyclones by synoptic-scale eddies, finite-amplitude non-linear instability theory, and influence of sea surface temperature anomalies, to name but a few. However, to date no unique theoretical model of atmospheric blocking has been formulated that can account for all of its observational characteristics.When numerical, global short- and medium-range weather predictions started being produced operationally, and with the establishment, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, it quickly became of relevance to assess the capability of numerical models to predict blocking with the correct space-time characteristics (e.g., location, time of onset, life span, and decay). Early studies showed that models had difficulties in correctly representing blocking as well as in connection with their large systematic (mean) errors.Despite enormous improvements in the ability of numerical models to represent atmospheric dynamics, blocking remains a challenge for global weather prediction and climate simulation models. Such modeling deficiencies have negative consequences not only for our ability to represent the observed climate but also for the possibility of producing high-quality seasonal-to-decadal predictions. For such predictions, representing the correct space-time statistics of blocking occurrence is, especially for certain geographical areas, extremely important.
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Predicting College Grades Analysis of Institutional Trends over Two Decades. Educational Testing Serv, 1990.
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Kazuhisa, Maeno. Daiyosoku junengo no Nihon: Kodo joho shakai no torendo to honshitsu o yomu = Japan in the coming decade : Surviving in an information-intensive society. PHP Kenkyujo, 1989.
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Brayne, Sarah. Predict and Surveil. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190684099.001.0001.
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The scope of criminal justice surveillance, from policing to incarceration, has expanded rapidly in recent decades. At the same time, the use of big data has spread across a range of fields, including finance, politics, health, and marketing. While law enforcement’s use of big data is hotly contested, very little is known about how the police actually use it in daily operations and with what consequences. This book offers an inside look at how police use big data and new surveillance technologies, leveraging on-the-ground fieldwork with one of the most technologically advanced law enforcement agencies in the world—the Los Angeles Police Department. Drawing on original interviews and ethnographic observations from over two years of fieldwork with the LAPD, the text examines the causes and consequences of big data and algorithmic control. It reveals how the police use predictive analytics and new surveillance technologies to deploy resources, identify criminal suspects, and conduct investigations; how the adoption of big data analytics transforms police organizational practices; and how the police themselves respond to these new data-driven practices. While big data analytics has the potential to reduce bias, increase efficiency, and improve prediction accuracy, the book argues that it also reproduces and deepens existing patterns of inequality, threatens privacy, and challenges civil liberties.
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Nihon no zento: Shinseiki ni mukete nani o junbisubeki ka = Japan's next decades : Gearing up for the new century. Saimaru Shuppankai, 1989.
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Haq, Khadija, ed. Personal Reflections on the World of the 1990s. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199474684.003.0015.
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In this chapter Haq at the start of the decade of the eighties, sets out to predict the world economic order for the next decade of the nineties. Haq was convinced that in the decade of the 1990s the world will experience structural changes. This will be due to a major shift in the balance of power in favour of the Third World—demographically, socially and politically. Some of his specific predictions include: a historical adjustment in the patterns of economic growth in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries to much lower levels, growing pressure for fundamental reforms in the international monetary system, and formal entrance of socialist bloc into the global economic and monetary system. It would be an interesting exercise for the reader to compare Haq’s predictions for the nineties to the actual world economic order that emerged in the decade.
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Andersson, Jenny. Predicting the Future of American Society. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198814337.003.0006.
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The Commission for the Year 2000, created in 1964 in the American Academy of Arts and Science under the chairmanship of Daniel Bell was a key site for the domestication of the predictive technologies developed at RAND, in particular Delphi and the scenario method. Bell moved, in the years of the 1960s, from his notes on the end of ideology at the beginning of the decade to his conclusion that post-industrial society was a society prone to new forms of social conflict and in need of a new mechanism of coordination. Bell thought that he had found this mechanism in the area of forecasting and futures research—activities which might substitute a planning mechanism in American society and provide a new set of “decision tools” for American politics.
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Clealand, Danielle Pilar. Introduction. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190632298.003.0001.
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During the 2008 US presidential campaign, I was in La Habana listening to Cubans of all races tell me a black man could never be elected president of the United States of America. The prediction was no doubt couched in decades of government rhetoric that proclaims the United States to be the prime example of racism and marginalization of blacks. Racism is designated as a problem that resides outside of the island’s borders, thus negating the significance of race in Cuba. Despite the skepticism concerning the United States electing a black president and the dominant discourse that denies the implications of racial identity in Cuba, many ...
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Botkin, Jeffrey R. Ethical Issues in Newborn Screening. Editado por Leslie Francis. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199981878.013.12.
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Many new parents have little awareness of the battery of screening tests that are routinely conducted on newborns in the United States and the developed world. Newborn screening, one of the most significant achievements in public health over the past 50 years, invites ongoing debate over a number of ethical and legal issues that have been part of the newborn screening landscape since the inception of the programs in the 1960s. This chapter reviews the history of newborn screening, outlines some of the key ethical and legal issues raised by these programs, and offers a prediction about how new technology may change these systems over the next few decades.
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Pearman, GI, ed. Greenhouse: Planning for Climate Change. CSIRO Publishing, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/9780643105041.
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It is important for the reader to understand clearly the objectives of these papers. They are not an attempt to provide accurate predictions of what is going to happen in Australia over the next few decades. Rather they represent sensitivity studies, designed to illustrate to what extent we as a nation are dependent on the climate and likely to be affected by climatic change, and attempts to develop the techniques for such sensitivity analyses. For this, the climate scenario (reproduced in the Appendix to this volume), was a key.
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Rosenzweig, Cynthia, e Daniel Hillel. Climate Variability and the Global Harvest. Oxford University Press, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195137637.001.0001.
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The Earth's climate is constantly changing. Some of the changes are progressive, while others fluctuate at various time scales. The El Niño-la Niña cycle is one such fluctuation that recurs every few years and has far-reaching impacts. It generally appears at least once per decade, but this may vary with our changing climate. The exact frequency, sequence, duration and intensity of El Niño's manifestations, as well as its effects and geographic distributions, are highly variable. The El Niño-la Niña cycle is particularly challenging to study due to its many interlinked phenomena that occur in various locations around the globe. These worldwide teleconnections are precisely what makes studying El Niño-la Niña so important. Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel describe the current efforts to develop and apply a global-to-regional approach to climate-risk management. They explain how atmospheric and social scientists are cooperating with agricultural practitioners in various regions around the world to determine how farmers may benefit most from new climate predictions. Specifically, the emerging ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle offers the potential to transform agricultural planning worldwide. Biophysical scientists are only now beginning to recognize the large-scale, globally distributed impacts of ENSO on the probabilities of seasonal precipitation and temperature regimes. Meanwhile, social scientists have been researching how to disseminate forecasts more effectively within rural communities. Consequently, as the quality of climatic predictions have improved, the dissemination and presentation of forecasts have become more effective as well. This book explores the growing understanding of the interconnectedness of climate predictions and productive agriculture for sustainable development, as well as methods and models used to study this relationship.
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Lleó, Conxita. Bilingualism and Child Phonology. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199935345.013.53.
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The present article poses some fundamental questions related to bilingualism and to the acquisition of two phonological components, by very young children. It discusses different types of bilingualism and their outcomes. After a brief consideration of alleged pros and cons of bilingualism brought up in the past decades, two perspectives of bilingualism are sketched—psycholinguistic and sociolinguistic—and certain aspects of bilingual child phonology are presented from each of these points of view. The essential issue is whether different outcomes of bilingual child phonology are predictable, and to find the crucial criteria to support the predictions. Finally, the discussion addresses some basic questions about bilingual acquisition, and ends with a summary of various types of cross-linguistic interaction.
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Hagstrom, Paul. Case and Agreement. Editado por Jeffrey L. Lidz, William Snyder e Joe Pater. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199601264.013.18.
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Children’s use of case and agreement morphology offers a window into the structure of their developing grammatical systems. Children acquiring English commonly produce accusative pronouns in subject position, and use verb forms lacking agreement morphology. The systematic patterns in these errors and correlations between them have been the subject of a great deal of research over the past few decades. This chapter lays out some of the results to date and the theoretical interpretations they have led to, as well as points of debate on methodology. The discussion centers around English, with other languages considered where predictions differ, and the topics include a general overview of the relation of case and agreement, optional/root infinitives, default case, and morphological access.
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Kucharski, Fred, e Muhammad Adnan Abid. Interannual Variability of the Indian Monsoon and Its Link to ENSO. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.615.
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The interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon is probably one of the most intensively studied phenomena in the research area of climate variability. This is because even relatively small variations of about 10% to 20% from the mean rainfall may have dramatic consequences for regional agricultural production. Forecasting such variations months in advance could help agricultural planning substantially. Unfortunately, a perfect forecast of Indian monsoon variations, like any other regional climate variations, is impossible in a long-term prediction (that is, more than 2 weeks or so in advance). The reason is that part of the atmospheric variations influencing the monsoon have an inherent predictability limit of about 2 weeks. Therefore, such predictions will always be probabilistic, and only likelihoods of droughts, excessive rains, or normal conditions may be provided. However, even such probabilistic information may still be useful for agricultural planning. In research regarding interannual Indian monsoon rainfall variations, the main focus is therefore to identify the remaining predictable component and to estimate what fraction of the total variation this component accounts for. It turns out that slowly varying (with respect to atmospheric intrinsic variability) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) provide the dominant part of the predictable component of Indian monsoon variability. Of the predictable part arising from SSTs, it is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that provides the main part. This is not to say that other forcings may be neglected. Other forcings that have been identified are, for example, SST patterns in the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and parts of the Pacific Ocean different from the traditional ENSO region, and springtime snow depth in the Himalayas, as well as aerosols. These other forcings may interact constructively or destructively with the ENSO impact and thus enhance or reduce the ENSO-induced predictable signal. This may result in decade-long changes in the connection between ENSO and the Indian monsoon. The physical mechanism for the connection between ENSO and the Indian monsoon may be understood as large-scale adjustment of atmospheric heatings and circulations to the ENSO-induced SST variations. These adjustments modify the Walker circulation and connect the rising/sinking motion in the central-eastern Pacific during a warm/cold ENSO event with sinking/rising motion in the Indian region, leading to reduced/increased rainfall.
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Roger, Mccormick, e Stears Chris. Part IX Legal and Conduct Risk Management, 31 Metrics in Conduct Risk and Reputation Management: Predictions and Perception. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law/9780198749271.003.0032.
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Despite being over a decade on from and the onset of the global financial crisis, organisations are still battling to regain the trust that was lost. A bank whose business practices might be applauded on the basis of its financial performance might be harbouring an unidentified/unmitigated level of conduct risk that could undermine its sustainability and trustworthiness. One way that stakeholders can assess the bank’s culture, conduct and ultimately, its trustworthiness and ‘investment value’ is through the use of metrics. This chapter explores the use of metrics for both conduct and reputational risk management. It focuses on the use of ‘conduct costs’ as a metric for internal risk management, as well as its potential to serve as a simple, yet defining metric for non-financial performance, firm culture and trust, from an external stakeholder assessment perspective.
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Berwick, Robert C., e Edward P. Stabler, eds. Minimalist Parsing. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198795087.001.0001.
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This book is the first dedicated to linguistic parsing—the processing of natural language according to the rules of a formal grammar—in the minimalist framework. While the Minimalist Program has been at the forefront of generative grammar for several decades, it often remains inaccessible to computer scientists and others in adjacent fields. In particular, minimalism reveals a surprising paradox: human language is simpler than we thought, and yet it cannot be processed by the machinery used by computer scientists. In this volume, experts in the field show how to resolve this apparent paradox, and how to turn Chomsky’s abstract theories into working computer programs that can process sentences or make predictions about the time course of brain activity when dealing with language. The book will appeal to graduate students and researchers in formal syntax, computational linguistics, psycholinguistics, and computer science.
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Buchman, Tim, e Michael Sterling. Staffing models in the ICU. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199600830.003.0002.
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Three decades ago a critical care provider surplus was forecast. Projections changed at the turn of the century when the Committee on Manpower of Pulmonary and Critical Care Societies (COMPACCS) report was issued. Demographers, statisticians, and clinicians used population, patient, hospital, and provider data to forecast that the supply for critical care physicians would not keep pace with demand, and that the shortfall would be around 22% by 2020, climbing to 35% by 2030. In 2006, the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) similarly forecast a significant shortage of intensivists by 2020. All signs suggest that the COMPACCS prediction is correct. This chapter describes and discusses three novel strategies by which intensivist expertise can be leveraged to provide care for a larger group of critically-ill patients. The three strategies include the use of hospitalists, engagement of affiliate providers (nurse practitioners and physician assistants with advanced critical care competencies), and investment in tele- ICU services. These strategies are complementary and can be combined to provide models tailored to local needs and resources.
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Varella, Marco A. C., Jaroslava Varella Valentova e Ana María Fernández. Evolution of Artistic and Aesthetic Propensities through Female Competitive Ornamentation. Editado por Maryanne L. Fisher. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199376377.013.46.
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This chapter highlights and discusses the role of women’s competitive ornamentation as one of the relevant, and so far overlooked, ancestral selective pressures in the evolution of artistic propensities. The authors critically discuss how and why sex differences and sexual selection processes acting on women have been disregarded for more than a decade. The authors review available convergent evidence about sex differences in aesthetics and artistic propensities showing that, overall, women outnumber men. Then the authors propose and show evidence that higher women’s inclination toward artistic domains, including ornamentation of body, behavior, and objects/places, can serve as a social arena for attracting/maintaining mates and dealing with rivals, primarily through self-promotion via competitive ornamentation. The chapter concludes by developing connections with related theories that broaden the scope of the field and highlight predictions for future research.
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Cheffins, Brian R. The Future of the Public Company. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190640323.003.0007.
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The seventh and concluding chapter of The Public Company Transformed extrapolates from trends the previous chapters have identified to speculate on the future trajectory of the public company. Salient developments from the 2010s are taken into account, with particular emphasis being placed on those implying a path different from what would be anticipated given events occurring from the mid-twentieth century through to the opening decade of the twenty-first century. This chapter argues radical departures from present day arrangements are unlikely any time soon. For instance, recent predictions of the imminent demise of the public company appear to be wide of the mark. That means the transformation of the public company the book has described should end up being part of a larger story yet to be written rather than being a public company epitaph.
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Rhodes, Matthew G. Judgments of Learning. Editado por John Dunlosky e Sarah (Uma) K. Tauber. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199336746.013.4.
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Several decades of research have examined predictions of future memory performance—typically referred to as judgments of learning (JOLs). In this chapter, I first discuss the early history of research on JOLs and their fit within a leading metacognitive framework. A common methodological approach has evolved that permits the researcher to investigate the correspondence between JOLs and memory performance, as well as the degree to which JOLs distinguish between information that is or is not remembered. Factors that influence each aspect of the accuracy of JOLs are noted and considered within theoretical approaches to JOLs. Thus far, research on JOLs had yielded a number of findings and promising theoretical frameworks that will continue to be refined. Future work will benefit by considering how learners combine information to arrive at a judgment, the implications of alternative methods of measuring JOLs, and the potential for JOLs to influence memory.
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Bonta, James, e J. S. Wormith. Adult Offender Assessment and Classification in Custodial Settings. Editado por John Wooldredge e Paula Smith. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199948154.013.19.
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This chapter describes the developments that have occurred over the past three decades in the area of offender assessment and classification, including discussion of why offender classification is so vital to correctional agencies. The importance of using actuarial approaches to predicting the risk of reoffending and danger to others is discussed, as well as the inclusion of static and dynamic factors on composite measures of offender risk and need. Particular attention is paid to the application of the principles of Risk, Need, and Responsivity (RNR) to offender assessment, classification, and subsequent work with the offender, often described as “offender case management.” How prison environments (including inmate and officer subcultures) can potentially interfere with the accuracy of risk and needs assessments is also debated.
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Ezrati, Milton. Thirty Tomorrows: The Next Three Decades of Globalization, Demographics, and How We Will Live. St. Martin's Press, 2014.
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Schomerus, Henning. Random matrix approaches to open quantum systems. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198797319.003.0010.
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Over the past decades, a great body of theoretical and mathematical work has been devoted to random-matrix descriptions of open quantum systems. This chapter reviews the physical origins and mathematical structures of the underlying models, and collects key predictions which give insight into the typical system behaviour. In particular, the aim is to give an idea how the different features are interlinked. The chapter mainly focuses on elastic scattering but also includes a short detour to interacting systems, which are motivated by the overarching question of ergodicity. The first sections introduce general notions from random matrix theory, such as the 10 universality classes and ensembles of Hermitian, unitary, positive-definite, and non-Hermitian matrices. The following sections then review microscopic scattering models that form the basis for statistical descriptions, and consider signatures of random scattering in decay, dynamics, and transport. The last section touches on Anderson localization and localization in interacting systems.
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Kimpara, Satoko, Hannah Holt, Julianne Alsante e Larry E. Beutler. Client, Therapist, and Treatment Variables. Editado por Sara Maltzman. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199739134.013.14.
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Consideration of the client–therapist match as a contributor, predictor, and optimizer of therapeutic change is not new in the behavioral health field. Indeed, it has evolved from two interactive and co-acting histories: (a) changing practices in psychotherapy research and (b) corresponding changes in the way that clinicians have viewed the role of theory in their practices. In the past three and a half decades, research emphasis has changed to increasingly reflect the roles played by client diagnoses, brands of interventions, and the theories that underlie their use. This chapter reviews the history of psychotherapy research and randomized controlled trials (RCTs). It then describes a contemporary view of RCT design that attempts to incorporate contemporary research developments that are bringing together research and practice.
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Hutchings, Jeffrey A. A Primer of Life Histories. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198839873.001.0001.
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Life histories describe how genotypes schedule their reproductive effort throughout life in response to factors that affect their survival and fecundity. Life histories are solutions that selection has produced to solve the problem of how to persist in a given environment. These solutions differ tremendously within and among species. Some organisms mature within months of attaining life, others within decades; some produce few, large offspring as opposed to numerous, small offspring; some reproduce many times throughout their lives while others die after reproducing just once. The exponential pace of life-history research provides an opportune time to engage and re-engage new generations of students and researchers on the fundamentals and applications of life-history theory. Chapters 1 through 4 describe the fundamentals of life-history theory. Chapters 5 through 8 focus on the evolution of life-history traits. Chapters 9 and 10 summarize how life-history theory and prediction has been applied within the contexts of conservation and sustainable exploitation. This primer offers an effective means of rendering the topic accessible to readers from a broad range of academic experience and research expertise.
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Rubia, Katya. ADHD brain function. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198739258.003.0007.
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ADHD patients appear to have complex multisystem impairments in several cognitive-domain dissociated inferior, dorsolateral, and medial fronto-striato-parietal and frontocerebellar neural networks during inhibition, attention, working memory, and timing functions. There is emerging evidence for abnormalities in motivation and affect control regions, most prominently in ventral striatum, but also orbital/ventromedial frontolimbic areas. Furthermore, there is an immature interrelationship between hypoengaged task-positive cognitive control networks and a poorly ‘switched off’ default mode network, both of which impact performance. Stimulant medication enhances the activation of inferior frontostriatal systems, while atomoxetine appears to have more pronounced effects on the dorsal attention network. More studies are needed to understand the neurofunctional correlates of the effects of age, gender, ADHD subtypes, and comorbidities with other psychiatric conditions. The use of pattern recognition analyses applied to imaging to make individual diagnostic or prognostic predictions are promising and will be the challenge over the next decade.
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Cheffins, Brian. The Public Company Transformed. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190640323.001.0001.
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The publicly traded company has played a dominant role in the American economy for decades. The Public Company Transformed examines the history of the American public company from the mid-twentieth century through to the present day. The analysis is oriented around constraints that have affected the discretion available to public company executives, such as monitoring by the board of directors, activism by shareholders, complying with regulation, dealings with unions, and pressure from competitors. The chronological departure point is the managerial capitalism era, which prevailed in large American corporations following World War II. Managerial capitalism’s rise, its 1950s and 1960s heyday, and its fall in the 1970s and 1980s are canvassed. Prosperity that American public companies and their executives enjoyed during the 1990s is described, as is a reversal of fortunes in the 2000s precipitated by corporate scandals and the financial crisis of 2008. The Public Company Transformed concludes by offering conjectures on the future of the public corporation, indicating in so doing that predictions the public company will soon be an afterthought are likely to be proved incorrect.
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Chneiweiss, Hervé. Anticipating a therapeutically elusive neurodegenerative condition: Ethical considerations for the preclinical detection of Alzheimer’s disease. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198786832.003.0016.
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Among neurodegenerative disorders, Alzheimer’s disease has held a special position during the last 40 years. It represents a huge burden of disease with more than 40 million people affected worldwide. The economic effect it has on society is enormous, and the specific challenges of dementia are tremendous. Now that science has demonstrated that the disease starts two or three decades before any symptoms occur, possibilities exist for diagnosis or testing increasingly early through the capabilities of predictive medicine. The related ethical debate is on the multiple meanings and the impact of preclinical diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease before the onset of symptoms. To guide this discussion, this chapter draws upon lessons from other fields of medicine and the identification of high-risk individuals bearing pathogenic genetic mutations that predispose them to the disease. It concludes with thoughts on value and choice in the complex, fine balance between anticipating, knowing, and doing.
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Cheavens, Jennifer S., e Madison M. Guter. Hope Therapy. Editado por Matthew W. Gallagher e Shane J. Lopez. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199399314.013.12.
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The strong association between hope and optimal psychological functioning has been empirically demonstrated repeatedly over the past two decades. In an effort to capitalize on these associations, researchers have developed and tested hope interventions aimed to increase hopeful thinking and optimal psychological functioning. Results are promising, suggesting that hope is malleable and that hope therapy reduces symptoms of distress and increases in well-being. Further, hope has been examined as a predictor of treatment success and data suggest that those with higher hope may do better in various treatments than their low-hope counterparts and that changes in hope across the course of therapy are associated with simultaneous improvements in psychological functioning. In future research, it will be important to identify specific therapeutic interventions that predict increases in hope and to determine whether or not hopeful thought is a mechanism of change in psychotherapy interventions.
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Blackman, Melinda. The Effective Interview. Editado por Susan Cartwright e Cary L. Cooper. Oxford University Press, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199234738.003.0009.
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The face of the employment interview has been gradually transforming over the past fifty years with the culmination of new research, theory, and practices. Now more than ever, researchers and human resource professionals are demanding interview formats that accurately and reliably predict a plethora of criteria in addition to the job candidate's skill set. No longer is the implementation of the traditional structured interview format sufficient for screening applicants. The effective interview is on its way to being transformed into a multifaceted instrument that aims to surpass the predictive precision of standardized selection tests. This article outlines the impetus of research, theory, and practice that spurred on the interview's transformation and the long-term payoff which employers are receiving from the changes. It gives a glimpse of where the employment interview is headed in the upcoming decade and the factors that make today's employment interview so effective.
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Wright, David Curtis. The History of China. 3a ed. ABC-CLIO, LLC, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9798400664601.
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Chinese society and culture are evolving with a booming economy, expansion, production of consumer and industrial goods, and a growing influence upon the world. The History of China allows readers to delve into the rich history of this powerful nation. China is both the world’s oldest continuing civilization and an emerging global super power. Over the last two millennia, this rich and complex nation has often been the wealthiest and most populous country on earth—and within a few decades, China may surpass all other nations as the most powerful in the world. In this third edition of The History of China, readers will find a general survey of China’s long history, ranging from accounts of ancient Chinese civilization to individual dynasties, and its whirlwind transition to modernity and belated arrival into the international community. An extensive new chapter discusses the emergence of Xi Jinping as China’s paramount leader and the bold new directions in which he is taking the country and offers some speculations or predictions about where China is headed in the future. A timeline, appendix of Notable People in the History of China, and bibliography are updated. Ideal for high school and undergraduate students, this volume offers a lively, engaging narrative of the rich history of Chinese civilization through present day.
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Colander, David, e Craig Freedman. Where Economics Went Wrong. Princeton University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691179209.001.0001.
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Milton Friedman once predicted that advances in scientific economics would resolve debates about whether raising the minimum wage is good policy. Decades later, Friedman's prediction has not come true. This book argues that it never will. Why? Because economic policy, when done correctly, is an art and a craft. It is not, and cannot be, a science. The book explains why classical liberal economists understood this essential difference, why modern economists abandoned it, and why now is the time for the profession to return to its classical liberal roots. Carefully distinguishing policy from science and theory, classical liberal economists emphasized values and context, treating economic policy analysis as a moral science where a dialogue of sensibilities and judgments allowed for the same scientific basis to arrive at a variety of policy recommendations. Using the University of Chicago—one of the last bastions of classical liberal economics—as a case study, the book examines how both the MIT and Chicago variants of modern economics eschewed classical liberalism in their attempt to make economic policy analysis a science. By examining the way in which the discipline managed to lose its bearings, the authors delve into such issues as the development of welfare economics in relation to economic science, alternative voices within the Chicago School, and exactly how Friedman got it wrong. Contending that the division between science and prescription needs to be restored, the book makes the case for a more nuanced and self-aware policy analysis by economists.
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Fulford, K. W. M., Martin Davies, Richard G. T. Gipps, George Graham, John Z. Sadler, Giovanni Stanghellini e Tim Thornton. The Next Hundred Years. Editado por K. W. M. Fulford, Martin Davies, Richard G. T. Gipps, George Graham, John Z. Sadler, Giovanni Stanghellini e Tim Thornton. Oxford University Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199579563.013.0001.
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This chapter introduces the edited volume,The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy and Psychiatry. Published in 2013, the centenary of Karl Jaspers'General Psychopathology, the chapter draws lessons from the last hundred years for the coming century. No predictions are made. Instead, five 'conditions for flourishing' are set out: 1) Particular Problems - the importance of focussing on well-defined particular problems rather than general theory building, 2) Product- orientation - remaining always responsibly product oriented in the specific sense that both sides (philosophers and practitioners) put in the work necessary to 'go deep' with each other's fields, 3) Partnership - working in partnerships of one kind or another (ranging from team work through to doubly qualified researchers), 4) Process - constant reflection on process based on peer review but leaving scope for the occasional rogue voice to cut innovatively against the grain, and 5) Q - a condition of a different kind, Q is an empirically derived measure of the balance between in-group cohesion and out-group openness required to support creativity. Illustrations are given of how these five conditions for flourishing have underpinned the rapid expansion of philosophy and psychiatry in the closing decades of the twentieth century, and, correspondingly, are also reflected in the Handbook as a whole. Overviews and commentaries on individual contributions to the Handbook are given in extended editorial introductions to each of its eight sections.
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Nord, Philip, e Katja Guenther. Formations of Belief. Editado por Philip Nord, Katja Guenther e Max Weiss. Princeton University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691190754.001.0001.
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For decades, scholars and public intellectuals have been predicting the demise of religion in the face of secularization. Yet religion is undergoing an unprecedented resurgence in modern life—and secularization no longer appears so inevitable. This book brings together many of today's leading historians to shed critical light on secularism's origins, its present crisis, and whether it is as antithetical to religion as it is so often made out to be. The book offers a more nuanced understanding of the origins of secularist thought, demonstrating how Reformed Christianity and the Enlightenment were not the sole vessels of a worldview based on rationalism and individual autonomy. Taking readers from late antiquity to the contemporary era, the chapters show how secularism itself can be a form of belief and yet how its crisis today has been brought on by its apparent incapacity to satisfy people's spiritual needs. The book explores the rise of the humanistic study of religion in Europe, Jewish messianism, atheism and last rites in the Soviet Union, the cult of the saints in colonial Mexico, religious minorities and Islamic identity in Pakistan, the neuroscience of religion, and more.
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Ahdar, Rex. The Evolution of Competition Law in New Zealand. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198855606.001.0001.
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This monograph presents a detailed, lively, and original chronicle and analysis of New Zealand’s competition law. The modern era began with the Commerce Act 1986 and since then a steady corpus of case law has traversed all the major areas of antitrust law: cartels, resale price maintenance, exclusive dealing, tying, monopolization, predatory pricing, mergers, private and public enforcement, and so on. The volume explains the rationale for the major reforms of the Commerce Act and traces the development of key concepts such as effective competition, efficiency, market power, market definition, entry barriers, wealth transfers, and public benefit over the last 34 years. The book provides an extended critique of the landmark cases and legislative amendments. It assesses the desirable, and undesirable, aspects of competition law’s interpretation and doctrinal development by the courts and Commerce Commission. Systemic issues are explored such as: how well has New Zealand moulded its own competition law, whilst, nonetheless, selectively drawing upon the policy prescriptions, case law, and wisdom from foreign jurisdictions? How well has it adapted its competition law to the reality of it being a small, distant, isolated, deregulated, open economy? How has the transplanted Harvard School versus Chicago School debate played out in New Zealand? How have unique, if not rash, experiments such as its “light-handed” regulation for utilities worked? It concludes by drawing together the common threads that mark the modern era and offering some predictions about how the next decades of New Zealand competition law might unfold.
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Lynch, Michael C. The “Peak Oil” Scare and the Coming Oil Flood. ABC-CLIO, LLC, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9798400605017.
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Is the earth’s oil supply starting to run out, or is there far more oil than some experts believe? This book points out flaws in the research used to warn of an oil shortfall and predicts that large new reserves of oil are soon to be tapped. In the last decade, oil experts, geologists, and policy makers alike have warned that a peak in oil production around the world was about to be reached and that global economic distress would result when this occurred. But it didn’t happen. The "Peak Oil" Scare and the Coming Oil Flood refutes the recent claims that world oil production is nearing a peak and threatening economic disaster by analyzing the methods used by the theory’s proponents. Author Michael C. Lynch, former researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), debunks the "Peak Oil" crisis prediction and describes how the next few years will instead see large amounts of new supply that will bring oil prices down and boost the global economy. This book will be invaluable to those involved in the energy industry, including among those fields that are competing with oil, as well as financial institutions for which the price of oil is of critical importance. Lynch uncovers the facts behind the misleading news stories and media coverage on oil production as well as the analytic process that reveals the truth about the global oil supply. General readers will be dismayed to learn how governments have frequently been led astray by seeming logical theories that prove to have no sound basis and will come away with a healthy sense of skepticism about popular economics.