Literatura científica selecionada sobre o tema "Crues massives"

The origin of cosmic gamma-ray bursts remains one of the most intriguing puzzles in astronomy. We suggest that purely general relativistic effects in the collapse of massive stars could account for these bursts. The late formation of closed trapped surfaces can occur naturally, allowing the escape of huge energy from curvature-generated fireballs, before these are hidden within a black hole.

Avec jusqu'à 1 million de personnes inondées, et 6,5 millions d'habitants privés d'eau ou d'électricité, les autorités régionales s'interrogent sur la capacité à mener à bien une évacuation de l'agglomération francilienne en cas de crue exceptionnelle de la Seine. L'étude présentée ici vise à répondre à une partie de ces interrogations, en proposant un outil d'aide à la décision sous SIG pour identifier de façon spatialisée les besoins de prise en charge dans l'hébergement d'urgence des populations sinistrées, en cas d'évacuation massive. La méthodologie se fonde sur la combinaison de deux indices, agrégés à l'échelle du bâti : (1) un « indice d'exposition », qui synthétise des variables relatives à l'aléa et aux impacts physiques induits par ce dernier. Cet indice est constitué à partir d'une réflexion sur la stratégie d'évacuation envisagée par la Préfecture de Police, coordinatrice de la gestion de crise à l'échelle régionale ; (2) un « indice de susceptibilité à l'auto-hébergement », qui vise à représenter la capacité d'une population donnée à trouver un hébergement par ses propres moyens, chez des proches notamment, en synthétisant diverses variables sociales et démographiques. Ces variables sont identifiées grâce à un état de l'art ad hoc, constitué à partir de retours d'expérience internationaux d'évacuations massives passées.

Abstract The master tumor suppressor p53 controls transcription of a wide-ranging gene network involved in apoptosis, cell cycle arrest, DNA damage repair, and senescence. Recent studies revealed pervasive binding of p53 to cis-regulatory elements (CREs), which are non-coding segments of DNA that spatially and temporally control transcription through the combinatorial binding of local transcription factors. Although the role of p53 as a strong trans-activator of gene expression is well known, the co-regulatory factors and local sequences acting at p53-bound CREs are comparatively understudied. We designed and executed a massively parallel reporter assay (MPRA) to investigate the effect of transcription factor binding motifs and local sequence context on p53-bound CRE activity. Our data indicate that p53-bound CREs are both positively and negatively affected by alterations in local sequence context and changes to co-regulatory TF motifs. Our data suggest p53 has the flexibility to cooperate with a variety of transcription factors in order to regulate CRE activity. By utilizing different sets of co-factors across CREs, we hypothesize that global p53 activity is guarded against loss of any one regulatory partner, allowing for dynamic and redundant control of p53-mediated transcription.

Massively parallel reporter assays (MPRAs) are a high-throughput method for evaluating in vitro activities of thousands of candidate cis-regulatory elements (CREs). In these assays, candidate sequences are cloned upstream or downstream from a reporter gene tagged by unique DNA sequences. However, tag sequences may themselves affect reporter gene expression and lead to major potential biases in the measured cis-regulatory activity. Here, we present a sequence-based method for correcting tag-sequence-specific effects and show that our method can significantly reduce this source of variation and improve the identification of functional regulatory variants by MPRAs. We also show that our model captures sequence features associated with post-transcriptional regulation of mRNA. Thus, this new method helps not only to improve detection of regulatory signals in MPRA experiments but also to design better MPRA protocols.

I began drafting this Introduction on July 30, 2013, the day that Bradley (now Chelsea) Manning was convicted on 19 of 21 charges, including 6 counts of espionage, in a U.S. military court martial. Manning is a former U.S. Army intelligence analyst who covertly conveyed to WikiLeaks a massive file of over 700,000 classified documents—including battlefield reports from Iraq, reports from Afghanistan, and State Department cables—thereby publicly disclosing extensive information about U.S. military conduct, and misconduct, of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Manning was subjected to harsh treatment, including solitary confinement during the first nine months of his detention, sparking public outcry and leading a UN Special Rapporteur on Torture to hold that his detention represented cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment.

The need for efficient image denoising methods has grown with the massive production of digital images and movies of all kinds. The distortion of images by additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) is common during its processing and transmission. This paper is concerned with dual-tree complex wavelet-based image denoising using Bayesian techniques. Indeed, one of the cruxes of the Bayesian image denoising algorithms is to estimate the local variance of the image. Here, we employ maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation to calculate local observed variance with Maxwell density prior for local observed variance and Gaussian distribution for noisy wavelet coefficients. Evidently, our selection of prior distribution is motivated by analytical and computational tractability. The experimental results show that the proposed method yields good denoising results.

In this contribution we describe a white pumice fall deposit, informally named pómez Bosque de Tlalpan (PBT), found in several outcrops in the southern Mexico basin. The most representative sequence occurs at the Bosque de Tlalpan park, Delegación Tlalpan, in Mexico City. In this site the deposit is 3 m thick, massive, and contains 80–90 vol. % of pumice clasts, predominantly of coarse lapilli-sized and some block-sized fragments. The PBT has a dacitic composition (64.9–66 wt. % SiO2, on anhydrous basis) of calc-alkaline affinity, and a mineral assemblage represented by plagioclase > amphibole > orthopyroxene > biotite, ±Fe-Ti oxides, with quartz in lesser proportions, and zircon as accesory mineral, in a vesicular and glassy matrix. According to data collected from seven outcrops, thickness and clast size of the deposit decrease towards the NE and therefore the vent source should be located to the SW of Bosque de Tlalpan. Possible sources are the volcanoes Ajusco and San Miguel, which are part of the Sierra de Las Cruces volcanic range, and are located in this direction at ~11 km from Bosque de Tlalpan. The age of the PBT deposit was determined by radiocarbon dating of underlying paleosoils that yielded 25,730 ± 130 to 37,450 ± 330 yrs B.P. (Late Pleistocene). Additionally, thermoluminscence dating of one sample yielded an age of 30,300 ± 5,000 years, similar to the radiocarbon ages. Hence, the PBT represents the youngest reported deposit from the Sierra de Las Cruces volcanic range. Although only seven outcrops were described in this work, we interpret the PBT deposit as produced by a plinian-type eruption, based on its massive structure, its ca. 3 m thickness, and the presence of pumice clasts in coarse lapilli to block sizes, as well as 3.5 cm sized lithics, at 11 km from the possible vent source, characteristic of this kind of deposits. We discard the monogenetic volcanoes from the Chichinautzin volcanic field as the vent source of the PBT deposit, because this kind of volcanoes is relatively mafic in composition and do not produce plinian-type deposits.

This paper presents the new finds of Renaissance wooden ceilings at the Petris-Moise Palace in Cres, decorated with painted panels and mural paintings. The construction elements, such as the composite massive beam known as trave leonardesca, are technically sophisticated and constructed in accordance with the Renaissance treatises on architecture. The painted ceiling panels are still a unique find in Croatia as to their installation and painting method, but are related to numerous painting cycles in the noble residences of southern France, Spain, Switzerland and northern Italy dating from the 14th until the mid-16th century. As for the dimensions, the pigments used, the installation and painting method, and the represented motifs, the closest analogy has been found in some Friulan examples. The difference, however, is that the Cres examples almost entirely belong to the visual language of grotesque, since they were produced somewhat later, at the time when this kind of decorative repertoire had already become highly appreciated. The constructions and decorative elements are a result of the Renaissance rebuilding in the second half of the 16th century, when the walls were painted as well. Based on an analysis of the heraldic symbols and motifs, and their comparison with the historical data on the Petris family, the commissioner has been identified as the Imperial Golden Knight Ivan Juraj Petris, a close relative of Franciscus Patricius (Petris). It has been assumed that the painting cycle was created under the influence of this renowned Renaissance philosopher.

L'objectif principal de ce travail est d'étudier la réponse biogéochimique des fonds marins côtiers soumis à des dépôts massifs épisodiques de sédiments. Le Rhône et ses marges côtières constituent un cas d'étude important pour quantifier l'impact des dépôts de crue sur les processus diagénétiques dans les sédiments superficiels, car juqu'à 80% des apports de sédiments sont réalisés lors d'événements courts et intenses de crues. Ces événements extrêmes sont rares et imprévisibles, et il est donc difficile d'évaluer par l'observation directe leur impact sur les processus biogéochimiques des sédiments. Afin d'étudier la réponse à court et moyen terme de la biogéochimie des sédiments dans ces conditions de changement brutal, un modèle numérique de diagenèse précoce a été spécifiquement développé au cours de cette thèse. En utilisant les données publiées de deux inondations contrastées en 2008, le modèle a montré sa capacité à simuler les changements induits par l'apport de sédiments sur les profils d'eau interstitielle pour différents solutés. Le modèle suggère que ces inondations pourraient produire des réponses biogéochimiques différentes, dont l'ampleur est déterminée par les caractéristiques du dépôt sédimentaire. Nous avons constaté que les taux de minéralisation du carbone organique totaux ont été multipliés par deux au cours de la crue du printemps 2008 par rapport aux conditions antérieures, et qu'ils ont encore augmenté à l'automne lorsqu'un sédiment enrichi en carbone très labile a été déposé (acrroissement d'un facteur 7). Mes recherches ont démontré que ces différences étaient dues à la nature du carbone organique du delta proximal du Rhône ainsi qu'à l'épaisseur du dépôt. Ces caractéristiques intrinsèques pourraient également être responsables du temps de relaxation des divers solutés de l'eau interstitielle (par exemple l'oxygène, le carbone inorganique dissous, le sulfate) autour de quelques mois. La thèse explore également le concept d'effet mémoire d'une séquence temporellement connectée de plusieurs dépôts de crue. L'occurrence multiple de ces événements peut déclencher une superposition temporelle entre les crues qui a un effet substantiel sur les processus opérant en profondeur (tels que la méthanogénèse et la réduction des sulfates) mais négligeable pour les processus oxiques et suboxiques superficiels. Cela a des conséquences importantes dans les scénarios futurs d'augmentation de la fréquence de ces événements extrêmes.La récente série temporelle de composition de l'eau interstitielle obtenue au cours des campagnes hivernales de 2021-22 étudie l'évolution temporelle du sédiment après un dépôt de sédiments estimé à 25 cm. Une modification remarquable des profils de DIC, SO_4^{2-} and CH_4 a été observée, qui se distingue de la situation antérieure à la crue. Les simulations du modèle décrivent de manière adéquate l'ensemble des données et montrent que ces événements hivernaux peuvent entraîner une augmentation de 75 % de la minéralisation totale du carbone, augmentant ainsi la production de DIC à plus long terme dans les sédiments. Cette inondation hivernale entraîne également un découplage des deux voies de réduction du sulfate - la réduction organoclastique du sulfate et l'oxydation anaérobie du méthane - et est associée à un enfoncement dans le sédiment de la zone de transition entre le sulfate et le méthane. Ceci pourrait renforcer l'efficacité du piège de méthane (un gaz à effet de serre crucial dans le contexte du changement climatique) dans le sédiment. Dans l'ensemble, cette thèse fournit pour la première fois une synthèse issue de l'exploration numérique du rôle d'un événement épisodique tel qu'un dépôt de crue massif sur la dynamique spatio-temporelle des processus biogéochimiques dans les sédiments
The main purpose of this work is to study the biogeochemical response of coastal seafloor subject to episodic massive sediment deposition from floods events. The Rhône River and its connected coastal margins serve as an important case-study site for quantifying the impact of these extreme events on early diagenetic process because it receives significant inputs of sediment (estimated to be up to 80%) during short and intense events. These extreme events are rare and unpredictable, thus the assessment of their impact on sediment biogeochemical processes is difficult.In order to study the short and intermediate term response of the sediment biogeochemistry under these abruptly changing conditions, an event-driven numerical model of early diagenesis was specifically developed during this thesis. Using published data of two contrasting floods in year 2008, the model showed reliable capability to simulate the changes induced by the sediment input on the porewater profiles for various solutes. The model suggests that these floods could produce differing biogeochemical response, the extent of which is determined by the underlying characteristics of the flood layer deposit. We found a two-fold increase in overall mineralization rates during the 2008 spring flood event from pre-flood conditions in the spring, which increased further in the fall when a very labile carbon-enrichment sediment was deposited (up to a factor of 7). My research demonstrated that these differences were due to the nature of organic carbon delivered to the proximal delta of the Rhone as well as the scale (thickness) of deposition. These intrinsic characteristics might also be responsible for constraining the relaxation timescale of the various porewater solutes (e.g oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon, sulfate) to a few months as observed in the field. Furthermore, this research also demonstrated that the strong internal cycling and the role of secondary redox processes such as pyrite precipitation which were enhanced during these flood events might be responsible for the maintenance of non-sulfidic condition observed in Rhône prodelta sediment. The thesis also briefly explores the concept of “memory effect” of temporally connected sequence of flood deposition with the conclusion that the multiple occurrence of these events can also trigger temporal interaction between floods which has a substantial effect on the processes operating in the deep (such as methanogenesis and sulfate reduction) but negligible for superficial oxic and suboxic processes. This has significant ramification in the future scenarios of increasing frequency of these extreme events.More recent time series of porewater composition obtained during winter campaigns in 2021-22 investigates the temporal evolution of the porewater following an estimated 25 cm of sediment deposition. A remarkable modification of the DIC, SO_4^{2-} and CH_4 profiles were observed which was distinguishable from the pre-flood situation. Model simulations describes adequately the dataset and showed that these winter events can result to as much as 75% increase in total carbon mineralization, thus enhancing longer-term DIC production in the sediment. This winter flood also leads to a decoupling of the two pathways for sulfate reduction - organoclastic sulfate reduction and anaerobic oxidation of methane and is associated to vertical displacement of the sulfate-methane transition zone. This observation has important implications since further deepening of the AOM maximum zone due to flood deposition could enhance the effective trapping of methane (a “green house” gas crucial in the context of climate change) flux out of the sediment.Overall, the numerical exploration in this thesis provides for the first time, a synthesis of the role of episodic event such as the massive flood deposition on spatio-temporal dynamics of the biogeochemical processes in the sediment

Les travaux présentés dans ce manuscrit s’appliquent au domaine de la gestion de crise française, et notamment à la phase de réponse qui suit un évènement majeur, comme une crue ou un accident industriel. Suite à l’évènement, des cellules de crise sont activées pour prévenir et traiter les conséquences de la crise. Elles font face, dans l’urgence, à de nombreuses difficultés. Les parties-prenantes sont nombreuses, autonomes et hétérogènes, la coexistence de plans d’urgence engendre des contradictions et des effets en cascade se nourrissent des interconnexions entre réseaux. Ces constats arrivent alors que les données disponibles sur les réseaux informatiques ne cessent de se multiplier. Elles sont, par exemple, émises par des capteurs de mesures, sur des réseaux sociaux, ou par des bénévoles. Ces données sont l’occasion de concevoir un système d’information capable de les collecter pour les interpréter en un ensemble d’information formalisé, utilisable en cellule de crise. Pour réussir, les défis liés aux 4Vs du Big data doivent être relevés en limitant le Volume, unifiant (la Variété) et améliorant la Véracité des données et des informations manipulées, tout en suivant la dynamique (Vélocité) de la crise en cours. Nos états de l’art sur les différentes parties de l’architecture recherchée nous ont permis de définir un tel système d’information. Ce dernier est aujourd’hui capable de (i) recevoir plusieurs types d’évènements émis de sources de données connues ou inconnues, (ii) d’utiliser des règles d’interprétations directement déduites de règles métiers réelles et (iii) de formaliser l’ensemble des informations utiles aux parties-prenantes. Son architecture fait partie des architectures orientées évènements, et coexiste avec l’architecture orientée services du logiciel développé par le laboratoire Centre de Génie Industriel (CGI). Le système d’information ainsi implémenté a pu être éprouvé sur un scénario de crue majeure en Loire Moyenne, élaboré par deux Services de Prévision des Crues (SPC) français. Le modèle décrivant la situation de crise courante, obtenu par le système d’information proposé, peut être utilisé pour (i) déduire un processus de réponse à la crise, (ii) détecter des imprévus ou (iii) mettre à jour une représentation de la situation en cellule de crise
The present work is applied to the field of French crisis management, and specifically to the crisis response phase which follows a major event, like a flood or an industrial accident. In the aftermath of the event, crisis cells are activated to prevent and deal with the consequences of the crisis. They face, in a hurry, many difficulties. The stakeholders are numerous, autonomous and heterogeneous, the coexistence of contingency plans favours contradictions and the interconnections of networks promotes cascading effects. These observations arise as the volume of data available continues to grow. They come, for example, from sensors, social media or volunteers on the crisis theatre. It is an occasion to design an information system able to collect the available data to interpret them and obtain information suited to the crisis cells. To succeed, it will have to manage the 4Vs of Big Data: the Volume, the Variety and Veracity of data and information, while following the dynamic (velocity) of the current crisis. Our literature review on the different parts of this architecture enables us to define such an information system able to (i) receive different types of events emitted from data sources both known and unknown, (ii) to use interpretation rules directly deduced from official business rules and (iii) to structure the information that will be used by the stake-holders. Its architecture is event-driven and coexists with the service oriented architecture of the software developed by the CGI laboratory. The implemented system has been tested on the scenario of a 1/100 per year flood elaborated by two French forecasting centres. The model describing the current crisis situation, deduced by the proposed information system, can be used to (i) deduce a crisis response process, (ii) to detect unexpected situations, and (iii) to update a COP suited to the decision-makers

There are two profound points of departure for discussions of the moral evaluation of humanitarian intervention and its partial echo in international law, the Responsibility to Protect. The first is the distressingly massive damage sometimes inflicted on people by their own governments (or other politically powerful and unhindered agents), and the second concerns the appalling disasters and ravages of war. The first cries out to outsiders for action to prevent or discontinue the horror (which may itself involve forms of warfare, such as civil war), but the second cautions against those forms of intervention or protection that themselves threaten to replace the horror with something as or even more damaging. The tension between these two instincts has been a significant issue in many violent conflicts in very different parts of the world in the last part of the twentieth century and into the present day, and, of course, has earlier historical precedents....

This chapter discusses how the conquest of the New World gave rise to vast manhunts that continued for almost four centuries and took place all over the Americas. This was a massive phenomenon with its specially trained dogs, professional hunters, weapons, and culture. As a social phenomenon, Indian hunting was indissolubly a large-scale economic activity, a way of life, and a cruel pleasure, a macabre form of sport—and this was so from the beginning of the conquests. Acquisition hunts were intended to take future slaves. Extermination hunts were entirely different; their main goal was the eradication of the population in order to conquer the territory. These hunts of conquest had to be provided with legitimations, with theories. How could the hunts for Indians be justified? That is where, very early on, philosophers made their entrance.

This chapter provides an overview of the recent history of El Salvador, with a focus on the importance of coffee as a crop that built fortunes for a small group of families. The wealth concentrated in the hands of oligarchs led to massive economic inequality throughout the twentieth century, and an uprising in the 1930s was put down in such a brutal manner that it stifled opposition for decades and came to be known as the Matanza. This chapter chronicles U.S. government support for anti-Communism and counterinsurgency efforts that created the death squads in El Salvador, continued military repression amid growing cries for reform in the 1960s and 1970s, the rise of insurgent groups targeting the oligarchs, and the bloody response of the military and death squads. After a reformist military coup in 1979, Roberto D’Aubuisson and civilian supporters carried out a public crusade denouncing advocates of reform as Communists, with the country getting closer to civil war.

Abstract A strangled cry breaks the frightening silence which hangs over the crowd. The column shakes. All eyes are fixed on the colossus atop the huge cylinder of bronze and granite as the metal cracks. Oscillating its full length for an instant, the column crashes down. A muffled impact of shattering metal mixes with the breaking of brush and clouds of dust rise in the air. At that instant an immense clamor breaks out from the crowd, and cries ring out, “Vive la Republique! Vive la Commune!” The debris rains down on a site of mathematical elegance, a vast octagon, paved in stone. The architecture of the “Grand Siecle” is borne majestically around the perimeter of the octagon; the Roman arcades of the ground floor are crowned by Mansart’s roofs, framed by silent windows and Corinthian columns. The space is an area stunning in the grandeur of its horizontal expanse, lines of sight unbroken except for one feature: in the exact center of the octagon, a massive pedestal and, for more than half a century, a huge column, forty-three and a half meters high, bronze and granite; at the summit, a statue of the Emperor.

This chapter examines Africa’s transformation process, in which colonialism and postcolonialism are considered to be of prime importance in view of the fact that Africans fell victim to the transatlantic slave trade. The second chain of the African disaster was initiated due to the political and economic conquest by European imperialists. African societies, including their traditional authorities, were often degraded to simply tools, a state of affairs which was due to the different types of colonial administration. The new and independent states were mostly ill-prepared for democratically and economically stable systems. In the course of the following thirty years nearly all countries became hotchpotches of autocracies and consequently any measures of development were bound to fail. Rather surprisingly, various stages of democratization processes still began to be formed in the 1990s. In the long term, systems were caught in a grey zone between autocracy and democracy. Currently, between eight or nine countries are considered to be true democracies. Still quite ambivalent, however, is the current economic situation, because on the one hand exploiting raw materials certainly meant strong growth rates above the population rate, but on the other hand resources turn out to be a curse of massive corruption or even cruel civil wars.

This chapter examines the ethico-political dimensions of (Christian and charitable) compassion in Nathanael West’s novella Miss Lonelyhearts, published in the darkest year of the Great Depression (1933). While West did not explicitly write his radical leftist convictions into his satirical fiction, this chapter argues that Miss Lonelyhearts stages a conflict between absent yet massively needed political responses to socio-economic precarity and an intratextual world whose ‘superrealist’ absurdity revolves around the compassionate, male advice columnist Miss Lonelyhearts being held ethically responsible for alleviating the material causes of his correspondents’ acute vulnerability. The columnist reacts repeatedly to their suffering with aversion and violence, and this chapter traces an anti-capitalist textual politics in West’s unparalleled representation of fraught relations where negative emotions triggering repulsion clash violently with compassion as a positive affect sustaining desire, attraction and love – that is, the realm of intimacy. Enlisting concepts such as Eva Illouz’s ‘cold intimacy’, Lauren Berlant’s ‘cruel optimism’ and Sianne Ngai’s ‘ugly feelings’, it reads the text’s refusal of compassion and intimacy as a radical rejection of an enduring predicament: an affective-political regime of resilience by which capitalism uses intimate relations and positive emotions to prevent class conflict and socio-economic equality.

Abstract WALLIA (d. 418 A.D.) King of the VISIGOTHS from 415 to 418 and the leader who was responsible for their settlement in Roman territory. In September of 415, the Visigoth monarch ATHAULF was stabbed to death and replaced by Singeric, a cruel and brief-reigning usurper. Singeric was also slain, after only a week, and an election was held to find a legitimate successor. The Visigoths chose a little known warrior, Wallia, who was selected because of his desire to have nothing to do with ROME, ironic given his subsequent actions. Wallia first restored Galla PLACIDIA, Athaulf’s Roman widow, to her rightful position of respect within the Visigoth community, making up for the harsh treatment meted out to her by Singeric. The most pressing problem, however, was securing the site of a permanent Visigothic settlement. Spain, their current home, was overcrowded and blockaded by the Roman navy. When ships designed to carry the Visigoths to AFRICA were wrecked in a storm, Wallia looked northward to Gaul and began negotiations with the Roman government, resulting in a treaty in 416 between Wallia and CONSTANTIUS 111. The Visigoths pledged to serve as clients or federates of Rome, which meant making war upon the VANDALS, Suebi and ALANS in Spain. In return the Visigoths received massive amounts of badly needed com and, ultimately, permission to take up residence in Gallia Aquitania and large sections of GALLIA NARBONENSIS as well. Over the next year, Wallia waged relentless war upon the barbarians in Spain and was so successful that by 418 the Visigoths were able to move into Gaul, according to their agreement with the Romans. This was Wallia’s legacy, for he died in 418. He was succeeded by Theoderic I, a grandson of ALARIC.

À l’instar de nombreux autres pays africains, la République du Soudan du Sud doit faire face à un nombre croissant d’inondations dévastatrices liées au changement climatique. Le dipôle de l’océan Indien (DOI) et le phénomène climatique El Niño régulent le climat de l’Afrique équatoriale orientale. En 2019, un réchauffement du dipôle dans l’ouest de l’océan Indien, aggravé par le changement climatique, a créé une évaporation supérieure à la moyenne au large de la côte africaines. Cette vapeur d’eau s’est abattue à l’intérieur des terres sous la forme de précipitations sur l’Éthiopie, la Somalie, le Kenya, le Soudan et le Soudan du Sud, en provoquant des inondations massives. Depuis lors, dans les zones humides du Sudd, au centre et au nord-est du Soudan du Sud, des pluies saisonnières s’abattent sur des terres déjà saturées et s’ajoutent aux eaux de crue. De vastes zones du pays ont été submergées durant toute l’année et des inondations soudaines ont fait leur apparition dans de nouvelles régions où elles ne sont pas habituelles. En parallèle, le Soudan du Sud peine à progresser vers la paix au lendemain de la guerre civile survenue en 2013-2018, avec de nombreux groupes armés qui poursuivent les combats et des conflits historiques avec le Soudan qui remontent à plusieurs décennies. L’impact des inondations sur l’environnement sécuritaire et la fragilité générale du Soudan du Sud a fait l’objet d’une attention prioritaire. Les graves inondations, conjointement avec des explosions de violence récurrentes, une gouvernance faible, la persistance de la pauvreté sous-jacente et l’insuffisance des infrastructures et des services de base, ont contribué à créer une crise humanitaire complexe et empêchent la jeune nation (qui a acquis son indépendance en 2011) de parvenir à une paix, une résilience et un développement durables et équitables. L’interdépendance de ces dynamiques et la nécessité d’aborder ces problèmes dans leur globalité sont de plus en plus reconnues par les acteurs de haut niveau dans le cadre de discussions relatives au nexus Humanitaire-Développement-Paix (HDP), parfois appelé le « triple nexus ». Cette note stratégique décrit les problèmes interconnectés du nexus HDP dans le contexte du Soudan du Sud en mettant l’accent sur les inondations. Cela revêt également une pertinence plus large pour d’autres pays au sein de la région, tels que la République démocratique du Congo et le Soudan, qui sont en proie à des cycles similaires d’auto-renforcement des crises humanitaires, de la paix et du développement, exacerbées par les inondations. En particulier, la note stratégique décrit les impacts multidimensionnels des inondations sur la paix, la santé, les moyens de subsistance et la gouvernance. Cette note stratégique fournit également un aperçu des initiatives et des innovations en matière de lutte contre les inondations, ainsi que des attitudes du public à leur égard. Elle met en évidence la nécessité d’établir un lien entre les interventions humanitaires à court terme et les initiatives de consolidation de la paix et de développement à long terme grâce à une collaboration significative entre les acteurs qui œuvrent au sein de ces espaces souvent cloisonnés.