Literatura científica selecionada sobre o tema "Banks, etc., United States, 1902"

Financial derivatives are products based on the innovation of financial products, which can be used for risk avoidance, investment management, etc. In recent years, with the rapid development of the financial market, the development of financial derivatives has become more and more diversified in Chinese commercial banks, ushering in new development opportunities. This paper introduces financial derivatives, discusses the risk management of financial derivatives in Chinese commercial banks, and compares the financial derivatives of commercial banks in China with those in the United States. According to the analysis, it can be concluded that the existing problems in risk management include the lack of rational consumers in China's financial trading market, the unregulated market system, the high risk of purchasing financial derivatives products, and the internal management problems of Chinese banks. In view of these problems, three effective methods are proposed for optimization, namely strengthening the training of human resources, establishing a sound financial regulatory system, and enhancing the internal management of banks.

The scientific article is devoted to the study of the purpose of monetary policy of the central banks of the EU member states. The legislation of the European Union, the member states of the European Union (Germany, France, Poland, the Czech Republic, Spain), as well as the United Kingdom, which left the EU, modern approaches in the science of constitutional and administrative law to determine the monetary policy of central banks EU members. The concept of the purpose of the monetary policy of the Central Banks of the EU member states, the activities and instruments of monetary policy, the functions of the central bank of the EU member state are distinguished. Emphasis is placed on the following regulatory functions of central banks that exist in legal doctrine: 1) management of aggregate money turnover; 2) regulation of the monetary sphere; 3) regulation of supply and demand for credit. The focus is on the fact that the central banks of the EU member states support purchasing power, as well as on the well-known fact: inflation - the slope of financial policy is recognized in economic theory as the most effective. Ensuring the stability of the currency (conducting open market operations or establishing exchange rate policies or reserve requirements, etc.) is a function of the central bank of the state, not the purpose of its activities. The stability of the national unit is also a function of the central bank of the state. It is established that the main purpose of the monetary policy of the central banks of the EU member states is to ensure price stability. In addition, it is argued that this is the inflationary - inclination of financial policy is the most effective. Accounting policy, interest rate policy, regulation of reserve requirements, money supply, open market operations and credit operations, interest rates, reserve requirements of banks are the activities and instruments of monetary policy of central banks. members of the EU, not the purpose of monetary policy.

Abstract The article analyses impact investment of project financing. Companies’ own funds, own funds of the consortium members, the company’s own resources and budget funding, own funds of the company on the basis of a production sharing agreement, borrowed funds; the funds raised by the bond issue are all considered as the project financing sources in the natural resource field. The purpose of this article is to consider various opportunities to support environmentally oriented projects in the framework of project financing, including through attracting funds of banks for the development of “green” economy. The role of banks and the banking sector in supporting environmentally and socially oriented projects is analysed. The experience of banks in Asia, Europe and the United States in terms of “green” economy projects is shown. Moreover, environmental and social risks, and impact of a project, the project compliance with the norms and standards of responsible finance are all considered in this article. Classification of environmental projects with the purpose of project financing is proposed, and also the scheme of interaction between stakeholders is shown, including banks, in the implementation of projects reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, impact investment in financing projects with the participation of banking sector is analysed and justified on the example of such countries as Mongolia, Russia, Japan, the United States and others. Evaluation procedures and the selection of projects for social investment purposes are shown in the article, including the measures of supporting banks for the project implementation in the field of “green” economy. The following research methods are considered: systematic analysis, environmental economic analysis environmental auditing, statistical methods for evaluating the costs and benefits from implementing environmentally oriented projects, methods of assessment of damage from environmental pollution, etc.

Abstract. The article considers the growing trends and specifics of digitalization of the banking sector. The main directions of digital transformation and the emergence of new financial market players due to the institutionalization/symbiosis of traditional banks with technology firms are studied. It is noted that this process can have far-reaching and ambiguous consequences and threats, such as moving away from the model of perfect competition and transition to platform-based competition, monopolizing markets by displacing some firms and creating favorable conditions for others, financial and reputational risks for banking structures, which provide payment cards, increase advertising prices, etc. The identified problems of traditional (classical) banks — sluggishness, impossibility of prompt adjustment of strategies, the use of outdated development tools, in particular, the closure of branches and the use of outdated technologies, loss of control over the payment system;the thesis is substantiated according to which the mechanisms of their functioning and management need cardinal corrections and innovations, first of all in approaches to interaction with clients and realization of e-business. Outlined strategies for the operation of new digital banks — the introduction of digital operations with a focus on efficiency, accessibility, transparency and consumer protection, increasing competition with traditional banks with the acquisition of customers of the latter.The consequences and prospects of the arrival of high-tech companies Apple and Google in the banking market are analyzed. Specific examples show the reasons for the bankruptcy of the previously prosperous companies Kodak (USA), Blockbuster (USA). The authors argue that digital banking is gaining a global character and the effective operation of national financial structures requires taking into account the threats and lessons of the onset of high technologies in practice. The features of the development of a digital bank on the European continent and in the United States have been clarified. Keywords: digital banking, digitalization, traditional banks, fintech, cashback, blockchain, smart contracts, cloud technologies. JEL Classification G21, O33, F65 Formulas: 0; fig.: 0; tabl: 0; bibl.: 29.

Keywords: finance, bank, virtual bank, digital economy, Fintech, startup, account,financial institution The article deals with the particular problems of today'sdigital economy. Particular attention is paid to the development of Fintech startupsin Ukraine. The foreign experience of creating and implementing Fintech startups isanalysed. The reasons for the failure of Fintech projects in Ukraine and other countriesare considered. Features of the innovative domestic mobile banking project Monobank (since2017), which was launched in partnership with the Fintech Band, are considered. Theshortcomings of Monobank are analysed, including the following: customers who donot have smartphones cannot use the product; Monobank does not have its own terminalsand ATMs to top up the card and withdraw cash. It uses iBox services and resourcesof other banks; not everyone can get a credit limit.Historical examples of the creation of «virtual» banks are studied. The first one isSecurity First Network Bank (SFNB) appeared in the United States in 1995, and inGermany in 1996, it was called Advance Bank. The emergence of virtual banks laterbecame a prerequisite for the creation of online banking (e-banking), which allows aperson to manage their bank accounts.It is proved that the era of electronic financial services requires the creation of conditionsto prevent fraud and abuse, and to this end should increase the level of financialliteracy of the population. There are prerequisites for further development of fintechin Ukraine. In this context, the USAID Financial Sector Transformation Projectof the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and the Independent Association of Banks ofUkraine (IABU) is analysed.The activity of innovation park in Ukraine in the field of fintech industryUNIT.City is considered.Special attention is paid to mobile applications with augmented reality.The typical problems faced by developers of fintech startups are analysed. Theseare, in particular, the following reasons for the loss of projects: the Ukrainian marketfor investment is not so big; not enough resources for successful work in this market;market regulation issues etc.

The article has highlighted the experience of the United States in crediting land based on productivity. In Ukraine soil classification was carried out in the section of soil groups according to their main natural properties, which have a stable nature and significantly affect the yield of agricultural crops grown in specific soil and climatic conditions. Complete work on soil grading on agricultural lands in Ukraine was carried out in 1993 within the boundaries of natural-agricultural districts and regions. Integral natural properties of soils reflect the credit score. These properties are divided into basic and modified. The main ones include the following: humus content, capacity of the humus horizon, the content of physical clay (particles up to 0.01 mm). The modified are mainly salinity, erosion, etc. Credit assessment of soil quality is presented in relative values — points on a closed 100-point scale. In contrast to Ukraine, in the United States land credit rating is carried out according to their productivity. Quantitative characterization of land productivity was carried out using two methodological approaches: inductive and deductive. The inductive assessment of productivity is given solely based on the estimated impact of different lands and soil properties on the potential yield. Deductive assessment, on the contrary, is based only on yield data on different soils. Most land valuations combine both approaches. It should be noted that thanks to the improvement of modern computer technology, it became possible to collect and process a large amount of information about land resources, which makes it possible to create mathematical simulation models, search programs, and computerized data banks. This is greatly facilitated by the development of remote sensing, new measuring devices, and map printing systems. This experience will contribute to the improvement of land resource assessment methods in Ukraine as well, despite the serious challenges that exist in the country.

In modern conditions of the rapid industrial development the banks have to forecast their risks and profitability precisely, to apply information technologies to assess their activities. To evaluate the bank's income, it is necessary to carry out an internal analysis of its assets and liabilities and determine the factors effecting the bank's profitability by managing interest rate risk. The hypothesis of the study is the analysis of the impact on the net interest income and interest rate risk of a commercial bank of factors such as the exchange rate and the key rate of the Bank of Russia (for example, Sberbank, PJSC). There has been studied the impact of the factors (exchange rate and key interest rate of Central Bank of Russia) on the bank's net interest income by using correlation and regression analysis and building a regression model. Many tools are found to be used by the experienced analysts. One of the main tools is GAP analysis of interest rate risk. There have been illustrated the graphs of changes in interest rates of savings and loan associations during the crisis in the United States in the 1950-1960, of realization of interest rate risk with an increase in interest rates, the distribution of assets and liabilities according to the maturity of the balance sheet structure, the impact of changes in the interest rate GAP on net interest income, etc. A matrix of correlations of all variables in the sample (rates of growing values) was constructed. Conclusions are drawn on the need to use hedging instruments (interest rate swaps, interest rate options), as well as of attracting the most reliable data on the state of interest rate risk in the commercial banks.

The transition of Soviet Russia from “war communism” to a new economic policy required the restoration of commodity-money exchange, the financial and tax system, credit and other market institutions. The need for rapid recovery and development of all branches of the national economy predetermined a certain departure from the “communist” views on banking and in the early 1920s. in the country, along with the State Bank, special banks appeared. These banks, being under the control of the relevant economic commissariats, ensured the implementation of the necessary financial and credit policy in this branch of the national economy. The article examines the activity of the German-Volga Agricultural Credit Bank in the ASSR of the Volga Germans during the period of the new economic policy. Special attention is paid to the bank’s issuance of a bond loan intended for placement, primarily on the foreign market. The bank bonds were supposed to be placed in Germany and among the German diasporas of the United States and Latin America. The article analyzes the activities of Nemvolbank in attracting foreign currency funds. The source base was the documents stored in the Russian State Archive of Economics in the funds of the Ministry of Finance of the USSR and the Ministry of Foreign Trade of the USSR: correspondence between the leadership of the ASSR of the Volga Germans about the issue of the loan and the terms of its placement, Regulations on the issue of bonds, etc. The role of the bank in the development of Soviet- German financial and economic relations within the framework of the diplomatic rapprochement of the two countries is traced. Shown activity Newalliance for the return of German colonists, immigrants back in the Volga region. It is concluded that the German-Volga Bank conducted quite active foreign trade activities.

The article examines the practices associated with the veneration of the portrait of the Rybnitser Rebbe (Chaim Zanvl Abramovich, 1902–1995) that are currently common among natives of Rybnitsa (now Transnistria). The study is based on field research in Rybnitsa in 2011–2019, as well as on the analysis of hagiographic literature in Yiddish and Hebrew, published in the United States after the death of the rebbe. The ambivalent attitude towards the depiction of the tzaddik is studied in the context of general ideas concerning portraits of rabbis in Hasidism. In many oral narratives, the motive of the constant justification of the practice of referring to the portrait of Chaim Zanvl remains. The image of the rebbe, a portrait printed on canvas, is kept in almost every family that remember the Rybnitser rebbe. The portrait was given to the people of Rybnitsa by the rebbe’s widow, who in the early 2000s collected materials for writing a hagiographic book about her husband. The photograph for the portrait was made in the classical style of rabbinical portraits of the 19th and 20th centuries. The Rebbe is depicted sitting over a holy book, in ritual dresses such as tallit with tefillin on his head, looking straight at the viewer. Despite the fact that it is not customary for Jews to have icons, pictures, etc., the interviews reveal the fact that the portrait of the tzaddik functions precisely like holy image. People talk to the portrait and pray to it; they hang it in a significant place at their homes; they keep it as a card in a wallet or as a small picture on key chains, in cars and on phone screensavers. In addition, for people from Rybnitsa the portrait of Chaim Zanvl becomes an icon of Jewish identity, a tool of social connection within the community and beyond.

Franchising is considered the most successful marketing concept around the world. Today, many franchises are offered, and it is incomparably easier and more secure to develop entrepreneurial spirit under the patronage of the already developed system. Franchise is called long term, firm contractual cooperation between independent companies or entrepreneurs, franchisor and franchisee, where the franchisor provides the franchisee with a set of knowledge and gives it its brand. The number of franchise systems in the world is rising, and competition compels the franchisee to search for new and attractive offers. The largest number of franchises exists on the United States market, the number of employees in this market is in arrears, and achieves the high GDP measured in billions of dollars. In the United States are represented all kinds of franchise systems, from the automotive industry, restaurants, education, beauty salons to new forms of work from home. Canada is the second largest in franchising, many forms have been developed that place the franchise at the very top of economic business. In Europe, the less developed countries, such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, etc., are developing more and more domestic brands and striving towards the conquest of international markets. New models of franchised business such as home-based franchises are being developed to allow most people to work from home. The application of the franchise system in our country would significantly contribute to the development of the domestic market. The future success of franchising in Serbia depends on the ability to innovate, improve the size of the site, provide education to interested small and medium-sized enterprises and entrepreneurs. Looking at all these countries and different markets, one can conclude that franchising is less developed in weaker economies, while economically more developed markets achieve even greater expansion in the form of GDP, employment, education, institutions. If each country awakens awareness of the value of franchising as a good technique for enterprises and entrepreneurs, it will open the possibility of expansion franchising to international markets, through marketing, social networks and the Internet. What is important is that this type of franchising is developing in our country and in this way it is slowly focusing on international markets. In franchising, the risk of business failure when starting a business is significantly lower than when starting a stand-alone business. Franchising is a way to use a proven, more successful, business model in a personal business, thereby reducing the likelihood of failure. The franchisee still continues to act substantially with his own resources, at his own risk, but under a different name. A well-known and famous brand is an additional guarantee for greater recognition and an automatically higher number of consumers. Franchising is a shortcut to a more successful business success. In the future, banks are expected to pay more attention to the financing of franchising, as both franchisees and recipients are referred to banks that receive the role of checkpoints and mediators.

In the winter of 1996, Canada's third largest financial institution, the Bank of Montreal, launched a now infamous advertising campaign in which it asked the question: Can a bank change? While the resulting ads naturally responded in the affirmative, many other large financial institutions were asking themselves the same question. The dramatic acceleration since the mid-to-late 1980's of the rate at which banks are establishing branches and/or investing in financial institutions outside of their home markets combined with the dismantling by governments around the world of many traditional regulatory restrictions is resulting in the re-making of the financial services industry in its entirety. Central to this process has been a wave of mergers and alliances, many of which increasingly cut across the classical sectoral sub-divisions (commercial banking, securities, insurance etc.). The end result has been the gradual emergence of singular financial amorphisms capable of offering any service globally. In addition to these structural changes, an important result of this wave of mergers, alliances and foreign investment has been that financial institutions have become global players in terms of market presence, rather than just loan portfolios. This, in turn, has meant that the volume and importance of international trade in financial services has substantially increased in recent years. As the international trade of financial services has developed, governments have sought to establish a framework of rules to govern it. However, this process has not occurred in a vacuum. Over the past 15 years, international trade in goods has become substantially freer, international trade in services (of which financial services constitute a part) has grown dramatically, and international capital flows have become more open. While volumes have been written about both international trade in goods and international capital flows and a burgeoning literature exists on trade in services, comparatively little has been written specifically about international trade in financial services. This paper is designed to help fill this void. The core of the paper consists of three specific cases: (1) the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA); (2) the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA); (3) the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Trade in Financial Services. These selections constitute a logical progression. The CUSFTA was the first trade agreement ever to include provisions on financial services. The NAFTA, negotiated shortly thereafter contains the most far-reaching provisions in the world in this area. Finally, the WTO Financial Services Agreement marks the first time that such disciplines have been successfully negotiated on a global level. In order to make an examination of an Agreement consisting of 56 different schedules possible, this section will focus on the commitments of a number of sample countries in a specific region of the world, namely Latin America.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.