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Sexton, David M. H., Howard Grubb, Keith P. Shine e Chris K. Folland. "Design and Analysis of Climate Model Experiments for the Efficient Estimation of Anthropogenic Signals". Journal of Climate 16, n.º 9 (1 de maio de 2003): 1320–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-16.9.1320.
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Abstract Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space–time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.
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Polson, Debbie, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Xuebin Zhang e Timothy J. Osborn. "Causes of Robust Seasonal Land Precipitation Changes*". Journal of Climate 26, n.º 17 (23 de agosto de 2013): 6679–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00474.1.
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Abstract Historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive are used to calculate the zonal-mean change in seasonal land precipitation for the second half of the twentieth century in response to a range of external forcings, including anthropogenic and natural forcings combined (ALL), greenhouse gas forcing, anthropogenic aerosol forcing, anthropogenic forcings combined, and natural forcing. These simulated patterns of change are used as fingerprints in a detection and attribution study applied to four different gridded observational datasets of global land precipitation from 1951 to 2005. There are large differences in the spatial and temporal coverage in the observational datasets. Yet despite these differences, the zonal-mean patterns of change are mostly consistent except at latitudes where spatial coverage is limited. The results show some differences between datasets, but the influence of external forcings is robustly detected in March–May, December–February, and for annual changes for the three datasets more suitable for studying changes. For June–August and September–November, external forcing is only detected for the dataset that includes only long-term stations. Fingerprints for combinations of forcings that include the effect of greenhouse gases are similarly detectable to those for ALL forcings, suggesting that greenhouse gas influence drives the detectable features of the ALL forcing fingerprint. Fingerprints of only natural or only anthropogenic aerosol forcing are not detected. This, together with two-fingerprint results, suggests that at least some of the detected change in zonal land precipitation can be attributed to human influences.
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Beenstock, M., Y. Reingewertz e N. Paldor. "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming". Earth System Dynamics Discussions 3, n.º 2 (16 de julho de 2012): 561–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-561-2012.
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Abstract. We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences whereas greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.
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Penner, J. E., Y. Chen, M. Wang e X. Liu. "Possible influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds and anthropogenic forcing". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 8, n.º 4 (22 de julho de 2008): 13903–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-8-13903-2008.
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Abstract. Cirrus clouds have a net warming effect on the atmosphere and cover about 30% of the Earth's area. Aerosol particles initiate ice formation in the upper troposphere through modes of action that include homogeneous freezing of solution droplets, heterogeneous nucleation on solid particles immersed in a solution, and deposition nucleation of vapor onto solid particles. Here, we examine the possible change in ice number concentration from anthropogenic soot originating from surface sources of fossil fuel and biomass burning, from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, and from aircraft that deposit their aerosols directly in the upper troposphere. We find that fossil fuel and biomass burning soot aerosols exert a radiative forcing of −0.68 to 0.01 Wm−2 while anthropogenic sulfate aerosols exert a forcing of −0.01 to 0.18 Wm−2. Our calculations show that the sign of the forcing by aircraft soot depends on the model configuration and can be both positive or negative, ranging from −0.16 to 0.02 Wm−2. The magnitude of the forcing in cirrus clouds can be comparable to the forcing exerted by anthropogenic aerosols on warm clouds, but this forcing has not been included in past assessments of the total anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate.
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Hansen, J., M. Sato, A. Lacis e R. Ruedy. "The missing climate forcing". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 352, n.º 1350 (28 de fevereiro de 1997): 231–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1997.0018.
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Observed climate change is consistent with radiative forcings on several time–scales for which the dominant forcings are known, ranging from the few years after a large volcanic eruption to glacial–to–interglacial changes. In the period with most detailed data, 1979 to the present, climate observations contain clear signatures of both natural and anthropogenic forcings. But in the full period since the industrial revolution began, global warming is only about half of that expected due to the principal forcing, increasing greenhouse gases. The direct radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols contributes only little towards resolving this discrepancy. Unforced climate variability is an unlikely explanation. We argue on the basis of several lines of indirect evidence that aerosol effects on clouds have caused a large negative forcing, at least −1 Wm −2 , which has substantially offset greenhouse warming. The tasks of observing this forcing and determining the microphysical mechanisms at its basis are exceptionally difficult, but they are essential for the prognosis of future climate change.
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Knutson, T. R., T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, I. M. Held, J. Lu, V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, G. Stenchikov e R. J. Stouffer. "Assessment of Twentieth-Century Regional Surface Temperature Trends Using the GFDL CM2 Coupled Models". Journal of Climate 19, n.º 9 (1 de maio de 2006): 1624–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3709.1.
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Abstract Historical climate simulations of the period 1861–2000 using two new Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate models (CM2.0 and CM2.1) are compared with observed surface temperatures. All-forcing runs include the effects of changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, sulfates, black and organic carbon, volcanic aerosols, solar flux, and land cover. Indirect effects of tropospheric aerosols on clouds and precipitation processes are not included. Ensembles of size 3 (CM2.0) and 5 (CM2.1) with all forcings are analyzed, along with smaller ensembles of natural-only and anthropogenic-only forcing, and multicentury control runs with no external forcing. Observed warming trends on the global scale and in many regions are simulated more realistically in the all-forcing and anthropogenic-only forcing runs than in experiments using natural-only forcing or no external forcing. In the all-forcing and anthropogenic-only forcing runs, the model shows some tendency for too much twentieth-century warming in lower latitudes and too little warming in higher latitudes. Differences in Arctic Oscillation behavior between models and observations contribute substantially to an underprediction of the observed warming over northern Asia. In the all-forcing and natural-only forcing runs, a temporary global cooling in the models during the 1880s not evident in the observed temperature records is volcanically forced. El Niño interactions complicate comparisons of observed and simulated temperature records for the El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo eruptions during the early 1980s and early 1990s. The simulations support previous findings that twentieth-century global warming has resulted from a combination of natural and anthropogenic forcing, with anthropogenic forcing being the dominant cause of the pronounced late-twentieth-century warming. The regional results provide evidence for an emergent anthropogenic warming signal over many, if not most, regions of the globe. The warming signal has emerged rather monotonically in the Indian Ocean/western Pacific warm pool during the past half-century. The tropical and subtropical North Atlantic and the tropical eastern Pacific are examples of regions where the anthropogenic warming signal now appears to be emerging from a background of more substantial multidecadal variability.
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Hao, Xin, Shengping He, Huijun Wang e Tingting Han. "Quantifying the contribution of anthropogenic influence to the East Asian winter monsoon in 1960–2012". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19, n.º 15 (7 de agosto de 2019): 9903–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9903-2019.
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Abstract. The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is greatly influenced by many factors that can be classified as anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing. Here we explore the contribution of anthropogenic influence to the change in the EAWM over the past decades. Under all forcings observed during 1960–2013 (All-Hist run), the atmospheric general circulation model is able to reproduce the climatology and variability of the EAWM-related surface air temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height and shows a statistically significant decreasing EAWM intensity with a trend coefficient of ∼-0.04 yr−1, which is close to the observed trend. By contrast, the simulation, which is driven by the same forcing as the All-Hist run but with the anthropogenic contribution to them removed, shows no decreasing trend in the EAWM intensity. By comparing the simulations under two different forcing scenarios, we further reveal that the responses of the EAWM to the anthropogenic forcing include a rise of 0.6∘ in surface air temperature over East Asia as well as weakening of the East Asian trough, which may result from the poleward expansion and intensification of the East Asian jet forced by the change in temperature gradient in the troposphere. Additionally, compared with the simulation without anthropogenic forcing, the frequency of strong (weak) EAWM occurrence is reduced (increased) by 45 % (from 0 to 10/7). These results indicate that the weakening of the EAWM during 1960–2013 may be mainly attributed to the anthropogenic influence.
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Penner, J. E., Y. Chen, M. Wang e X. Liu. "Possible influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds and anthropogenic forcing". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 9, n.º 3 (3 de fevereiro de 2009): 879–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-879-2009.
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Abstract. Cirrus clouds have a net warming effect on the atmosphere and cover about 30% of the Earth's area. Aerosol particles initiate ice formation in the upper troposphere through modes of action that include homogeneous freezing of solution droplets, heterogeneous nucleation on solid particles immersed in a solution, and deposition nucleation of vapor onto solid particles. Here, we examine the possible change in ice number concentration from anthropogenic soot originating from surface sources of fossil fuel and biomass burning, from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, and from aircraft that deposit their aerosols directly in the upper troposphere. We use a version of the aerosol model that predicts sulfate number and mass concentrations in 3-modes and includes the formation of sulfate aerosol through homogeneous binary nucleation as well as a version that only predicts sulfate mass. The 3-mode version best represents the Aitken aerosol nuclei number concentrations in the upper troposphere which dominated ice crystal residues in the upper troposphere. Fossil fuel and biomass burning soot aerosols with this version exert a radiative forcing of −0.3 to −0.4 Wm−2 while anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and aircraft aerosols exert a forcing of −0.01 to 0.04 Wm−2 and −0.16 to −0.12 Wm−2, respectively, where the range represents the forcing from two parameterizations for ice nucleation. The sign of the forcing in the mass-only version of the model depends on which ice nucleation parameterization is used and can be either positive or negative. The magnitude of the forcing in cirrus clouds can be comparable to the forcing exerted by anthropogenic aerosols on warm clouds, but this forcing has not been included in past assessments of the total anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate.
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Baker, Hugh S., Tim Woollings e Cheikh Mbengue. "Eddy-Driven Jet Sensitivity to Diabatic Heating in an Idealized GCM". Journal of Climate 30, n.º 16 (agosto de 2017): 6413–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0864.1.
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The eddy-driven jet is studied using a dry idealized model to determine its sensitivity to thermal forcings. The jet latitude, speed, and variability are investigated under a series of Gaussian patch thermal forcing simulations applied systematically on a latitude–sigma grid in the troposphere. This work builds on previous studies by isolating the responses of the jet speed and latitude as opposed to combining them into a single annular mode index. It also explores the sensitivity of the jet to much smaller spatial heatings rather than applying forcing patterns to simulate anthropogenic climate change, as the size and magnitude of the forcings due to anthropogenic climate change are uncertain. The jet speed and latitude are found to have different sensitivity distributions from each other, which also vary between summer and winter. A simple mechanistic understanding of these sensitivities is presented by considering how the individual thermal forcings modify mean isentropic surfaces. In the cases analyzed, the jet response to forcing scales approximately linearly with the strength of the forcing and when forcings are applied in combination. The findings show a rich latitude–pressure distribution of jet sensitivities to thermal forcings, which will aid interpretation of jet responses in a changing climate. Furthermore, they highlight the areas where uncertainty needs to be reduced in the size and position of expected anthropogenic forcings, in order that the uncertainty in changes of the eddy-driven jet can be reduced.
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CHARLSON, R. J., S. E. SCHWARTZ, J. M. HALES, R. D. CESS, J. A. COAKLEY, J. E. HANSEN e D. J. HOFMANN. "Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols". Science 255, n.º 5043 (24 de janeiro de 1992): 423–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.255.5043.423.
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Ocko, Ilissa B., V. Ramaswamy e Yi Ming. "Contrasting Climate Responses to the Scattering and Absorbing Features of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcings". Journal of Climate 27, n.º 14 (10 de julho de 2014): 5329–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00401.1.
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Abstract Anthropogenic aerosols comprise optically scattering and absorbing particles, with the principal concentrations being in the Northern Hemisphere, yielding negative and positive global mean radiative forcings, respectively. Aerosols also influence cloud albedo, yielding additional negative radiative forcings. Climate responses to a comprehensive set of isolated aerosol forcing simulations are investigated in a coupled atmosphere–ocean framework, forced by preindustrial to present-day aerosol-induced radiative perturbations. Atmospheric and oceanic climate responses (including precipitation, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric and oceanic heat transport, sea surface temperature, and salinity) to negative and positive particulate forcings are consistently anticorrelated. The striking effects include distinct patterns of changes north and south of the equator that are governed by the sign of the aerosol forcing and its initiation of an interhemispheric forcing asymmetry. The presence of opposing signs of the forcings between the aerosol scatterers and absorbers, and the resulting contrast in climate responses, thus dilutes the individual effects of aerosol types on influencing global and regional climate conditions. The aerosol-induced changes in the variables also have a distinct fingerprint when compared to the responses of the more globally uniform and interhemispherically symmetric well-mixed greenhouse gas forcing. The significance of employing a full ocean model is demonstrated in this study by the ability to partition how individual aerosols influence atmospheric and oceanic conditions separately.
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Fyfe, John C., Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Benjamin D. Santer, Jason N. S. Cole e Nathan P. Gillett. "Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, n.º 23 (1 de junho de 2021): e2016549118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2016549118.
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Forcing due to solar and volcanic variability, on the natural side, and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on the anthropogenic side, are the main inputs to climate models. Reliable climate model simulations of past and future climate change depend crucially upon them. Here we analyze large ensembles of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings. The different forcings considered here are those used in the two most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), namely CMIP5 and CMIP6. We show significant differences in simulated global surface air temperature due to volcanic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 19th century and in the early 21st century. The latter arise from small-to-moderate eruptions incorporated in CMIP6 simulations but not in CMIP5 simulations. We also find significant differences in global surface air temperature and Arctic sea ice area due to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 20th century and early 21st century. These differences are as large as those obtained in different versions of an Earth System Model employing identical forcings. In simulations from 2015 to 2100, we find significant differences in the rates of projected global warming arising from CMIP5 and CMIP6 concentration pathways that differ slightly but are equivalent in terms of their nominal radiative forcing levels in 2100. Our results highlight the influence of assumptions about natural and anthropogenic aerosol loadings on carbon budgets, the likelihood of meeting Paris targets, and the equivalence of future forcing scenarios.
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Knutson, Thomas R., e Jeffrey Ploshay. "Sea Level Pressure Trends: Model-Based Assessment of Detection, Attribution, and Consistency with CMIP5 Historical Simulations". Journal of Climate 34, n.º 1 (janeiro de 2021): 327–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0997.1.
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AbstractObserved sea level pressure (SLP) trends for 1901–10, 1951–10, and 1981–2010 are assessed using two observed data sources (HadSLP2_lowvar and 20CRv3) compared to a CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. The CMIP5 simulations include runs with (i) no external forcing (Control runs), (ii) natural external forcing only (Natural-Forcing), or (iii) natural plus anthropogenic forcings combined (All-Forcings). We assess whether the CMIP5 All-Forcing ensemble is consistent with observations and whether there is model-based evidence for detectable anthropogenic influence for the observed SLP trends. For the 1901–2010 and 1951–2010 trends, a robustly detectable anthropogenic signal in both observational data products is a zonal band of SLP increase extending over much of the Southern Hemisphere extratropics (30°–50°S). In contrast, the HadSLP2_lowvar and 20CRv3 observed data products disagree on the sign of the century-scale trends in SLP over much of the low-latitude region 25°N–25°S. These differences will limit confident detection/attribution/consistency conclusions for lower-latitude regions, at least until the observational data product discrepancies are better reconciled. The Northern Hemisphere extratropics remains a difficult region for identifying any detectable anthropogenic influence for annual- or seasonal-mean SLP trends. Overall, our results highlight the difficulty in detecting and attributing anthropogenic signals in SLP for relatively short time scales. The observed 1981–2010 regional trends typically have a different pattern and magnitude from the simulated externally forced trends. Consequently, our results suggest that internal variability is likely the dominant driver of most observed 1981–2010 regional trend features, including the pronounced increase in SLP over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
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Leibensperger, E. M., L. J. Mickley, D. J. Jacob, W. T. Chen, J. H. Seinfeld, A. Nenes, P. J. Adams, D. G. Streets, N. Kumar e D. Rind. "Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12, n.º 7 (10 de abril de 2012): 3333–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3333-2012.
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Abstract. We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W) of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2), nitrate (−0.2 W m−2), organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2), and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.
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Charles, Elodie, Benoit Meyssignac e Aurélien Ribes. "Observational Constraint on Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Contributions to Global Ocean Heat Content Changes". Journal of Climate 33, n.º 24 (15 de dezembro de 2020): 10579–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0091.1.
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AbstractObservations and climate models are combined to identify an anthropogenic warming signature in the upper ocean heat content (OHC) changes since 1971. We apply a new detection and attribution analysis developed by Ribes et al. that uses a symmetric treatment of the magnitude and the pattern of the climate response to each radiative forcing. A first estimate of the OHC response to natural, anthropogenic, greenhouse gas, and other forcings is derived from a large ensemble of CMIP5 simulations. Observational datasets from historical reconstructions are then used to constrain this estimate. A spatiotemporal observational mask is applied to compare simulations with actual observations and to overcome reconstruction biases. Results on the 0–700-m layer from 1971 to 2005 show that the global OHC would have increased since 1971 by 2.12 ± 0.21 × 107 J m−2 yr−1 in response to GHG emissions alone. But this has been compensated for by other anthropogenic influences (mainly aerosol), which induced an OHC decrease of 0.84 ± 0.18 × 107 J m−2 yr−1. The natural forcing has induced a slight global OHC decrease since 1971 of 0.13 ± 0.09 × 107 J m−2 yr−1. Compared to previous studies we have separated the effect of the GHG forcing from the effect of the other anthropogenic forcing on OHC changes. This has been possible by using a new detection and attribution (D&A) method and by analyzing simultaneously the global OHC trends over 1957–80 and over 1971–2005. This bivariate method takes advantage of the different time variation of the GHG forcing and the aerosol forcing since 1957 to separate both effects and reduce the uncertainty in their estimates.
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Zhang, Yu, Zengchao Hao, Xuan Zhang e Fanghua Hao. "Anthropogenically forced increases in compound dry and hot events at the global and continental scales". Environmental Research Letters 17, n.º 2 (1 de fevereiro de 2022): 024018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e0.
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Abstract Remarkable increases in compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have been observed in different regions in recent decades. However, the anthropogenic influence on the long-term changes in CDHEs at the global scale has been largely unquantified. In this study, we provide evidence that anthropogenic forcings have contributed to the increased CDHEs over global land areas. We compare the spatial and temporal changes in CDHEs based on climate model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and observations from different datasets. The results show observed occurrences of CDHEs have increased over most regions across global land areas during 1956–2010 relative to 1901–1955. In addition, we find a temporal increase in observed occurrences of CDHEs averaged over global land areas and different continents (except Antarctica) for the period 1901–2010 (with a larger increase during 1951–2010). The spatial and temporal changes in historical all-forcing simulations (with both anthropogenic and natural components) are overall consistent with observations, while those in historical natural-forcing simulations diverge substantially from observations, heightening the key role of anthropogenic forcings in increased CDHEs. Furthermore, we use the probability ratio (PR) to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic forcings to the likelihood of CDHEs since the mid-20th century (1951–2010). We find anthropogenic influences have increased the risk of CDHEs in large regions across the globe except for parts of Eurasia and North America. Overall, our study highlights the important role of anthropogenic influences in increased CDHEs from a global perspective. The mitigation of climate change is thus paramount to reduce the risk of CDHEs.
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Ma, Shuangmei, Tianjun Zhou, Dáithí A. Stone, Debbie Polson, Aiguo Dai, Peter A. Stott, Hans von Storch et al. "Detectable Anthropogenic Shift toward Heavy Precipitation over Eastern China". Journal of Climate 30, n.º 4 (2 de fevereiro de 2017): 1381–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0311.1.
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Abstract Changes in precipitation characteristics directly affect society through their impacts on drought and floods, hydro-dams, and urban drainage systems. Global warming increases the water holding capacity of the atmosphere and thus the risk of heavy precipitation. Here, daily precipitation records from over 700 Chinese stations from 1956 to 2005 are analyzed. The results show a significant shift from light to heavy precipitation over eastern China. An optimal fingerprinting analysis of simulations from 11 climate models driven by different combinations of historical anthropogenic (greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use, and ozone) and natural (volcanic and solar) forcings indicates that anthropogenic forcing on climate, including increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs), has had a detectable contribution to the observed shift toward heavy precipitation. Some evidence is found that anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) partially offset the effect of the GHG forcing, resulting in a weaker shift toward heavy precipitation in simulations that include the AA forcing than in simulations with only the GHG forcing. In addition to the thermodynamic mechanism, strengthened water vapor transport from the adjacent oceans and by midlatitude westerlies, resulting mainly from GHG-induced warming, also favors heavy precipitation over eastern China. Further GHG-induced warming is predicted to lead to an increasing shift toward heavy precipitation, leading to increased urban flooding and posing a significant challenge for mega-cities in China in the coming decades. Future reductions in AA emissions resulting from air pollution controls could exacerbate this tendency toward heavier precipitation.
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Wang, Xiaoxin, Xianmei Lang e Dabang Jiang. "Detectable anthropogenic influence on summer compound hot events over China from 1965 to 2014". Environmental Research Letters 17, n.º 3 (1 de março de 2022): 034042. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4d4e.
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Abstract Compared with independent hot days or nights, compound hot extremes have more adverse effects on society. In this study, hot extremes are categorized into three types: independent hot days, independent hot nights and compound hot events combining daytime and nighttime hot extremes based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Using observations from the gridded dataset CN05.1 and experiments undertaken with 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, we analyze the observed changes in summer hot extremes and compare them with model simulations over China between 1961 and 2014 and then conduct detection and attribution analyses of changes in compound hot events between 1965 and 2014 utilizing an optimal fingerprinting method. The results show that clear upward trends in the frequency and intensity of the three types of hot extremes are observed over China, with the largest trend occurring in hot nights for frequency and in compound hot events for intensity. The CMIP6 multimodel mean responses to all forcings agree well with the observed changes in the frequency and intensity of the three types of hot extremes. Anthropogenic (ANT) forcing can be robustly detected and separated from the response to natural (NAT) forcing in the frequency and intensity trends of compound hot events over China, and the attributable contribution of ANT forcing is estimated to be much larger than that of NAT forcing. Further analyses on the model responses to NAT, greenhouse gas (GHG) and ANT aerosol (AER) forcings indicate that GHG forcing is detectable in the observed increased frequency of compound hot events. By contrast, NAT and AER forcings cannot be detected, and their effects on the observed changes in compound hot events over China are generally negligible.
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Deng, Jiechun, Aiguo Dai e Haiming Xu. "Nonlinear Climate Responses to Increasing CO2 and Anthropogenic Aerosols Simulated by CESM1". Journal of Climate 33, n.º 1 (10 de dezembro de 2019): 281–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0195.1.
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Abstract Atmospheric CO2 and anthropogenic aerosols (AA) have increased simultaneously. Because of their opposite radiative effects, these increases may offset each other, which may lead to some nonlinear effects. Here the seasonal and regional characteristics of this nonlinear effect from the CO2 and AA forcings are investigated using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model. Results show that nonlinear effects are small in the global mean of the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes, surface air temperature, and precipitation. However, significant nonlinear effects exist over the Arctic and other extratropical regions during certain seasons. When both forcings are included, Arctic sea ice in September–November decreases less than the linear combination of the responses to the individual forcings due to a higher sea ice sensitivity to the CO2-induced warming than the sensitivity to the AA-induced cooling. This leads to less Arctic warming in the combined-forcing experiment due to reduced energy release from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. Some nonlinear effects on precipitation in June–August are found over East Asia, with the northward-shifted East Asian summer rain belt to oppose the CO2 effect. In December–February, the aerosol loading over Europe in the combined-forcing experiment is higher than that due to the AA forcing, resulting from CO2-induced circulation changes. The changed aerosol loading results in regional thermal responses due to aerosol direct and indirect effects, weakening the combined changes of temperature and circulation. This study highlights the need to consider nonlinear effects from historical CO2 and AA forcings in seasonal and regional climate attribution analyses.
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Schönwiese, Christian-D. Walter, e Sven Brinckmann. "Statistical assessments of anthropogenic and natural global climate forcing. An update". Meteorologische Zeitschrift 19, n.º 1 (1 de fevereiro de 2010): 3–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0421.
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Slangen, Aimée B. A., John A. Church, Xuebin Zhang e Didier P. Monselesan. "The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models*". Journal of Climate 28, n.º 21 (30 de outubro de 2015): 8521–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0376.1.
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Abstract Changes in Earth’s climate are influenced by internal climate variability and external forcings, such as changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), and aerosols. Although the response of surface temperature to external forcings has been studied extensively, this has not been done for sea level. Here, a range of climate model experiments for the twentieth century is used to study the response of global and regional sea level change to external climate forcings. Both the global mean thermosteric sea level and the regional dynamic sea level patterns show clear responses to anthropogenic forcings that are significantly different from internal climate variability and larger than the difference between models driven by the same external forcing. The regional sea level patterns are directly related to changes in surface winds in response to the external forcings. The spread between different realizations of the same model experiment is consistent with internal climate variability derived from preindustrial control simulations. The spread between the different models is larger than the internal variability, mainly in regions with large sea level responses. Although the sea level responses to GHG and anthropogenic aerosol forcing oppose each other in the global mean, there are differences on a regional scale, offering opportunities for distinguishing between these two forcings in observed sea level change.
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Shi, Xiangjun, Chunhan Li, Lijuan Li, Wentao Zhang e Jiaojiao Liu. "Estimating the CMIP6 Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Effects with the Advantage of Prescribed Aerosol Forcing". Atmosphere 12, n.º 3 (21 de março de 2021): 406. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030406.
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The prescribed anthropogenic aerosol forcing recommended by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was implemented in an atmospheric model. With the reduced complexity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, each component of anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) can be estimated by one or more calculation methods, especially for instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) from aerosol–radiation interactions (RFari) and aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci). Simulation results show that the choice of calculation method might impact the magnitude and reliability of RFari. The RFaci—calculated by double radiation calls—is the definition-based Twomey effect, which previously was impossible to diagnose using the default model with physically based aerosol–cloud interactions. The RFari and RFaci determined from present-day simulations are very robust and can be used as offline simulation results. The robust RFari, RFaci, and corresponding radiative forcing efficiencies (i.e., the impact of environmental properties) are very useful for analyzing anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects. For instance, from 1975 to 2000, both RFari and RFaci showed a clear response to the spatial change of anthropogenic aerosol. The global average RF (RFari + RFaci) has enhanced (more negative) by ~6%, even with a slight decrease in the global average anthropogenic aerosol, and this can be explained by the spatial pattern of radiative forcing efficiency.
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Gillett, Nathan P., Hideo Shiogama, Bernd Funke, Gabriele Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Katja Matthes, Benjamin D. Santer, Daithi Stone e Claudia Tebaldi. "The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6". Geoscientific Model Development 9, n.º 10 (18 de outubro de 2016): 3685–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016.
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Abstract. Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.
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Shi, Xiangjun, Wentao Zhang e Jiaojiao Liu. "Comparison of Anthropogenic Aerosol Climate Effects among Three Climate Models with Reduced Complexity". Atmosphere 10, n.º 8 (9 de agosto de 2019): 456. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080456.
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The same prescribed anthropogenic aerosol forcing was implemented into three climate models. The atmosphere components of these participating climate models were the GAMIL, ECHAM, and CAM models. Ensemble simulations were carried out to obtain a reliable estimate of anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF). The ensemble mean ERFs from these three participating models with this aerosol forcing were −0.27, −0.63, and −0.54 W∙m−2. The model diversity in ERF is clearly reduced as compared with those based on the models’ own default approaches (−1.98, −0.21, and −2.22 W∙m−2). This is consistent with the design of this aerosol forcing. The modeled ERF can be decomposed into two basic components, i.e., the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) from aerosol–radiation interactions (RFari) and the aerosol-induced changes in cloud forcing (△Fcloud*). For the three participating models, the model diversity in RFari (−0.21, −0.33, and −0.29 W∙m−2) could be constrained by reducing the differences in natural aerosol radiative forcings. However, it was difficult to figure out the reason for the model diversity in △Fcloud* (−0.05, −0.28, and −0.24 W∙m−2), which was the dominant source of the model diversity in ERF. The variability of modeled ERF was also studied. Ensemble simulations showed that the modeled RFs were very stable. The rapid adjustments (ERF − RF) had an important role to play in the quantification of the perturbation of ERF. Fortunately, the contribution from the rapid adjustments to the mean ERF was very small. This study also showed that we should pay attention to the difference between the aerosol climate effects we want and the aerosol climate effects we calculate.
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Chan, Duo, e Qigang Wu. "Attributing Observed SST Trends and Subcontinental Land Warming to Anthropogenic Forcing during 1979–2005". Journal of Climate 28, n.º 8 (7 de abril de 2015): 3152–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00253.1.
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Abstract Attribution studies conclude that it is extremely likely that most observed global- and continental-scale surface air temperature (SAT) warming since 1950 was caused by anthropogenic forcing, but some difficulties and uncertainties remain in attribution of warming in subcontinental regions and at time scales less than 50 years. This study uses global observations and CMIP5 simulations with various forcings, covering 1979–2005, and control runs to develop confidence intervals, to attribute regional trends of SAT and sea surface temperature (SST) to natural and anthropogenic causes. Observations show warming, significantly different from natural variations at the 95% confidence level, over one-third of all grid boxes, and averaged over 15 of 21 subcontinental regions and 6 of 10 ocean basins. Coupled simulations forced with all forcing factors, or greenhouse gases only, reproduce observed SST and SAT patterns. Uncoupled AMIP-like atmosphere-only (prescribed SST and atmospheric radiative forcing) simulations reproduce observed SAT patterns. All of these simulations produce consistent net downward longwave radiation patterns. Simulations with natural-only forcing simulate weak warming. Anthropogenic forcing effects are clearly detectable at the 5% significance level at global, hemispheric, and tropical scales and in nine ocean basins and 15 of 21 subcontinental land regions. Attribution results indicate that ocean warming during 1979–2005 for the globe and individual basins is well represented in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble mean historical simulations. While land warming may occur as an indirect response to oceanic warming, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations tend to be the ultimate source of land warming in most subcontinental regions during 1979–2005.
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Mikšovský, J., E. Holtanová e P. Pišoft. "Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data". Earth System Dynamics Discussions 6, n.º 2 (12 de novembro de 2015): 2339–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2339-2015.
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Abstract. Monthly near-surface temperature anomalies from several gridded datasets (GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, MLOST, HadCRUT4, 20th Century Reanalysis) were investigated and compared with regard to the presence of components attributable to external climate forcings (anthropogenic, solar and volcanic) and to major internal climate variability modes (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and variability characterized by the Trans-Polar Index). Multiple linear regression was used to separate components related to individual explanatory variables in local monthly temperatures as well as in their global means, over the 1901–2010 period. Strong correlations of temperature and anthropogenic forcing were confirmed for most of the globe, whereas only weaker and mostly statistically insignificant connections to solar activity were indicated. Imprints of volcanic forcing were found to be largely insignificant in the local temperatures, in contrast to the clear volcanic signature in their global averages. An attention was also paid to the manifestations of short-term time shifts in the responses to the forcings, and to differences in the spatial fingerprints detected from individual temperature datasets: it is shown that although the resemblance of the response patterns is usually strong, some regional contrasts appear. Noteworthy differences from the other datasets were found especially for the 20th Century Reanalysis, particularly for the components attributable to anthropogenic and volcanic forcing over land, but also in some of the teleconnection patterns related to the internal variability modes.
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Diao, Chenrui, Yangyang Xu e Shang-Ping Xie. "Anthropogenic aerosol effects on tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (1980–2020): separating the role of zonally asymmetric forcings". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21, n.º 24 (21 de dezembro de 2021): 18499–518. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18499-2021.
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Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) induce global and regional tropospheric circulation adjustments due to the radiative energy perturbations. The overall cooling effects of AA, which mask a portion of global warming, have been the subject of many studies but still have large uncertainty. The interhemispheric contrast in AA forcing has also been demonstrated to induce a major shift in atmospheric circulation. However, the zonal redistribution of AA emissions since start of the 20th century, with a notable decline in the Western Hemisphere (North America and Europe) and a continuous increase in the Eastern Hemisphere (South Asia and East Asia), has received less attention. Here we utilize four sets of single-model initial-condition large-ensemble simulations with various combinations of external forcings to quantify the radiative and circulation responses due to the spatial redistribution of AA forcing during 1980–2020. In particular, we focus on the distinct climate responses due to fossil-fuel-related (FF) aerosols emitted from the Western Hemisphere (WH) versus the Eastern Hemisphere (EH). The zonal (west to east) redistribution of FF aerosol emission since the 1980s leads to a weakening negative radiative forcing over the WH mid-to-high latitudes and an enhancing negative radiative forcing over the EH at lower latitudes. Overall, the FF aerosol leads to a northward shift of the Hadley cell and an equatorward shift of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) jet stream. Here, two sets of regional FF simulations (Fix_EastFF1920 and Fix_WestFF1920) are performed to separate the roles of zonally asymmetric aerosol forcings. We find that the WH aerosol forcing, located in the extratropics, dominates the northward shift of the Hadley cell by inducing an interhemispheric imbalance in radiative forcing. On the other hand, the EH aerosol forcing, located closer to the tropics, dominates the equatorward shift of the NH jet stream. The consistent relationship between the jet stream shift and the top-of-atmosphere net solar flux (FSNTOA) gradient suggests that the latter serves as a rule-of-thumb guidance for the expected shift of the NH jet stream. The surface effect of EH aerosol forcing (mainly from low- to midlatitudes) is confined more locally and only induces weak warming over the northeastern Pacific and North Atlantic. In contrast, the WH aerosol reduction leads to a large-scale warming over NH mid-to-high latitudes that largely offsets the cooling over the northeastern Pacific due to EH aerosols. The simulated competing roles of regional aerosol forcings in driving atmospheric circulation and surface temperature responses during the recent decades highlight the importance of considering zonally asymmetric forcings (west to east) and also their meridional locations within the NH (tropical vs. extratropical).
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Pinault, Jean-Louis. "Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing: Positive Feedbacks". Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 6, n.º 4 (30 de novembro de 2018): 146. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040146.
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This article is based on recent work intended to estimate the impact of solar forcing mediated by long-period ocean Rossby waves that are resonantly forced—the ‘Gyral Rossby Waves’ (GRWs). Here, we deduce both the part of the anthropogenic and climate components within the instrumental surface temperature spatial patterns. The natural variations in temperature are estimated from a weighted sum of sea surface temperature anomalies in preselected areas of subtropical gyres representative of long-period GRWs. The temperature response to anthropogenic forcing is deduced by subtracting the climate component from the instrumental temperature. Depending on whether the inland regions are primarily impacted by latent or sensible heat fluxes from the oceans, positive feedbacks occur. This suggests that the lapse rate and the high troposphere cloud cover have a driving role in the amplification effect of anthropogenic climate forcing, while specifying the involved mechanisms.
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Dunstone, N. J., D. M. Smith, B. B. B. Booth, L. Hermanson e R. Eade. "Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms". Nature Geoscience 6, n.º 7 (23 de junho de 2013): 534–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1854.
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Erickson, David J., Robert J. Oglesby e Susan Marshall. "Climate response to indirect anthropogenic sulfate forcing". Geophysical Research Letters 22, n.º 15 (1 de agosto de 1995): 2017–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/95gl01660.
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Fyfe, W. S. "Global change: anthropogenic forcing?the moving target". Terra Nova 4, n.º 3 (maio de 1992): 284–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3121.1992.tb00816.x.
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Lohmann, U., L. Rotstayn, T. Storelvmo, A. Jones, S. Menon, J. Quaas, A. Ekman, D. Koch e R. Ruedy. "Total aerosol effect: radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation?" Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 9, n.º 6 (30 de novembro de 2009): 25633–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-9-25633-2009.
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Abstract. Uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of rain formation. In former assessments of aerosol radiative forcings, these effects have not been quantified. Also, with global aerosol-climate models simulating interactively aerosols and cloud microphysical properties, a quantification of the aerosol forcings in the traditional way is difficult to properly define. Here we argue that fast feedbacks should be included because they act quickly compared with the time scale of global warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method, here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP), that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Based on our results, we recommend RFP as a valid option to compare different forcing agents, and to compare the effects of particular forcing agents in different models.
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Lohmann, U., L. Rotstayn, T. Storelvmo, A. Jones, S. Menon, J. Quaas, A. M. L. Ekman, D. Koch e R. Ruedy. "Total aerosol effect: radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation?" Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10, n.º 7 (6 de abril de 2010): 3235–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-3235-2010.
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Abstract. Uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of precipitation formation. In former assessments of aerosol radiative forcings, these effects have not been quantified. Also, with global aerosol-climate models simulating interactively aerosols and cloud microphysical properties, a quantification of the aerosol forcings in the traditional way is difficult to define properly. Here we argue that fast feedbacks should be included because they act quickly compared with the time scale of global warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method, here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP), that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Based on our results, we recommend RFP as a valid option to compare different forcing agents, and to compare the effects of particular forcing agents in different models.
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Fiedler, Stephanie, Bjorn Stevens, Matthew Gidden, Steven J. Smith, Keywan Riahi e Detlef van Vuuren. "First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect". Geoscientific Model Development 12, n.º 3 (21 de março de 2019): 989–1007. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019.
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Abstract. We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on anthropogenic aerosol emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., 2018). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries for anthropogenic aerosol. All scenarios, except SSP3-70 and SSP4-60, show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range from 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol from high- and low-end scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing anthropogenic aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. The ERF of anthropogenic aerosol for the mid-2090s ranges from −0.15 W m−2 for SSP1-19 to −0.54 W m−2 for SSP3-70, i.e. the mid-2090s ERF is 30 %–108 % of the value in the mid-2000s due to differences in the emission pathway alone. Assuming a stronger Twomey effect changes these ERFs to −0.39 and −0.92 W m−2, respectively, which are similar to estimates obtained from models with complex aerosol parameterisations. The year-to-year standard deviations around 0.3 W m−2 associated with natural variability highlight the necessity to average over sufficiently long time periods for estimating ERF; this is in contrast to RF that is typically well constrained after simulating just 1 year. The scenario interpretation of MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edge scientific endeavours.
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Rozanov, Eugene V., Tatiana A. Egorova, Alexander I. Shapiro e Werner K. Schmutz. "Modeling of the atmospheric response to a strong decrease of the solar activity". Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union 7, S286 (outubro de 2011): 215–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1743921312004863.
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AbstractWe estimate the consequences of a potential strong decrease of the solar activity using the model simulations of the future driven by pure anthropogenic forcing as well as its combination with different solar activity related factors: total solar irradiance, spectral solar irradiance, energetic electron precipitation, solar protons and galactic cosmic rays. The comparison of the model simulations shows that introduced strong decrease of solar activity can lead to some delay of the ozone recovery and partially compensate greenhouse warming acting in the direction opposite to anthropogenic effects. The model results also show that all considered solar forcings are important in different atmospheric layers and geographical regions. However, in the global scale the solar irradiance variability can be considered as the most important solar forcing. The obtained results constitute probably the upper limit of the possible solar influence. Development of the better constrained set of future solar forcings is necessary to address the problem of future climate and ozone layer with more confidence.
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Ramaswamy, V., W. Collins, J. Haywood, J. Lean, N. Mahowald, G. Myhre, V. Naik et al. "Radiative Forcing of Climate: The Historical Evolution of the Radiative Forcing Concept, the Forcing Agents and their Quantification, and Applications". Meteorological Monographs 59 (1 de janeiro de 2019): 14.1–14.101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/amsmonographs-d-19-0001.1.
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Abstract We describe the historical evolution of the conceptualization, formulation, quantification, application, and utilization of “radiative forcing” (RF) of Earth’s climate. Basic theories of shortwave and longwave radiation were developed through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and established the analytical framework for defining and quantifying the perturbations to Earth’s radiative energy balance by natural and anthropogenic influences. The insight that Earth’s climate could be radiatively forced by changes in carbon dioxide, first introduced in the nineteenth century, gained empirical support with sustained observations of the atmospheric concentrations of the gas beginning in 1957. Advances in laboratory and field measurements, theory, instrumentation, computational technology, data, and analysis of well-mixed greenhouse gases and the global climate system through the twentieth century enabled the development and formalism of RF; this allowed RF to be related to changes in global-mean surface temperature with the aid of increasingly sophisticated models. This in turn led to RF becoming firmly established as a principal concept in climate science by 1990. The linkage with surface temperature has proven to be the most important application of the RF concept, enabling a simple metric to evaluate the relative climate impacts of different agents. The late 1970s and 1980s saw accelerated developments in quantification, including the first assessment of the effect of the forcing due to the doubling of carbon dioxide on climate (the “Charney” report). The concept was subsequently extended to a wide variety of agents beyond well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs; carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons) to short-lived species such as ozone. The WMO and IPCC international assessments began the important sequence of periodic evaluations and quantifications of the forcings by natural (solar irradiance changes and stratospheric aerosols resulting from volcanic eruptions) and a growing set of anthropogenic agents (WMGHGs, ozone, aerosols, land surface changes, contrails). From the 1990s to the present, knowledge and scientific confidence in the radiative agents acting on the climate system have proliferated. The conceptual basis of RF has also evolved as both our understanding of the way radiative forcing drives climate change and the diversity of the forcing mechanisms have grown. This has led to the current situation where “effective radiative forcing” (ERF) is regarded as the preferred practical definition of radiative forcing in order to better capture the link between forcing and global-mean surface temperature change. The use of ERF, however, comes with its own attendant issues, including challenges in its diagnosis from climate models, its applications to small forcings, and blurring of the distinction between rapid climate adjustments (fast responses) and climate feedbacks; this will necessitate further elaboration of its utility in the future. Global climate model simulations of radiative perturbations by various agents have established how the forcings affect other climate variables besides temperature (e.g., precipitation). The forcing–response linkage as simulated by models, including the diversity in the spatial distribution of forcings by the different agents, has provided a practical demonstration of the effectiveness of agents in perturbing the radiative energy balance and causing climate changes. The significant advances over the past half century have established, with very high confidence, that the global-mean ERF due to human activity since preindustrial times is positive (the 2013 IPCC assessment gives a best estimate of 2.3 W m−2, with a range from 1.1 to 3.3 W m−2; 90% confidence interval). Further, except in the immediate aftermath of climatically significant volcanic eruptions, the net anthropogenic forcing dominates over natural radiative forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless, the substantial remaining uncertainty in the net anthropogenic ERF leads to large uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity from observations and in predicting future climate impacts. The uncertainty in the ERF arises principally from the incorporation of the rapid climate adjustments in the formulation, the well-recognized difficulties in characterizing the preindustrial state of the atmosphere, and the incomplete knowledge of the interactions of aerosols with clouds. This uncertainty impairs the quantitative evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation pathways in the future. A grand challenge in Earth system science lies in continuing to sustain the relatively simple essence of the radiative forcing concept in a form similar to that originally devised, and at the same time improving the quantification of the forcing. This, in turn, demands an accurate, yet increasingly complex and comprehensive, accounting of the relevant processes in the climate system.
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Triacca, Umberto, e Antonello Pasini. "On the Unforced or Forced Nature of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: A Linear and Nonlinear Causality Analysis". Climate 12, n.º 7 (26 de junho de 2024): 90. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli12070090.
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In recent years, there has been intense debate in the literature as to whether the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a genuine representation of natural climate variability or is substantially driven by external factors. Here, we perform an analysis of the influence of external (natural and anthropogenic) forcings on the AMO behaviour by means of a linear Granger causality analysis and by a nonlinear extension of this method. Our results show that natural forcings do not have any causal role on AMO in both linear and nonlinear analyses. Instead, a certain influence of anthropogenic forcing is found in a linear framework.
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Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow e David C. H. Wallom. "Influence of the Ocean and Greenhouse Gases on Severe Drought Likelihood in the Central United States in 2012". Journal of Climate 30, n.º 5 (20 de fevereiro de 2017): 1789–806. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0294.1.
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Abstract The impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and anthropogenic greenhouse gases on the likelihood of extreme drought occurring in the central United States in the year 2012 were investigated using large-ensemble simulations from a global atmospheric climate model. Two sets of experiments were conducted. In the first, the simulated hydroclimate of 2012 was compared to a baseline period (1986–2014) to investigate the impact of SSTs. In the second, the hydroclimate in a world with 2012-level anthropogenic forcing was compared to five “counterfactual” versions of a 2012 world under preindustrial forcing. SST anomalies in 2012 increased the simulated likelihood of an extreme summer precipitation deficit (e.g., the deficit with a 2% exceedance probability) by a factor of 5. The likelihood of an extreme summer soil moisture deficit increased by a similar amount, due in great part to a large spring soil moisture deficit carrying over into summer. An anthropogenic impact on precipitation was detectable in the simulations, doubling the likelihood of what would have been a rainfall deficit with a 2% exceedance probability under preindustrial-level forcings. Despite this reduction in rainfall, summer soil moisture during extreme drought was essentially unaffected by anthropogenic forcing because of 1) evapotranspiration declining roughly one-to-one with a decrease in precipitation due to severe water supply constraint and despite higher evaporative demand and 2) a decrease in stomatal conductance, and therefore a decrease in potential transpiration, with higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
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O'Connor, Fiona M., N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson et al. "Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21, n.º 2 (29 de janeiro de 2021): 1211–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021.
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Abstract. Quantifying forcings from anthropogenic perturbations to the Earth system (ES) is important for understanding changes in climate since the pre-industrial (PI) period. Here, we quantify and analyse a wide range of present-day (PD) anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs) with the UK's Earth System Model (ESM), UKESM1, following the protocols defined by the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) and the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In particular, quantifying ERFs that include rapid adjustments within a full ESM enables the role of various chemistry–aerosol–cloud interactions to be investigated. Global mean ERFs for the PD (year 2014) relative to the PI (year 1850) period for carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), and methane (CH4) are 1.89 ± 0.04, 0.25 ± 0.04, −0.18 ± 0.04, and 0.97 ± 0.04 W m−2, respectively. The total greenhouse gas (GHG) ERF is 2.92 ± 0.04 W m−2. UKESM1 has an aerosol ERF of −1.09 ± 0.04 W m−2. A relatively strong negative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) and a small negative instantaneous forcing from aerosol–radiation interactions (ARI) from sulfate and organic carbon (OC) are partially offset by a substantial forcing from black carbon (BC) absorption. Internal mixing and chemical interactions imply that neither the forcing from ARI nor ACI is linear, making the aerosol ERF less than the sum of the individual speciated aerosol ERFs. Ozone (O3) precursor gases consisting of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NOx), but excluding CH4, exert a positive radiative forcing due to increases in O3. However, they also lead to oxidant changes, which in turn cause an indirect aerosol ERF. The net effect is that the ERF from PD–PI changes in NOx emissions is negligible at 0.03 ± 0.04 W m−2, while the ERF from changes in VOC and CO emissions is 0.33 ± 0.04 W m−2. Together, aerosol and O3 precursors (called near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) in the context of AerChemMIP) exert an ERF of −1.03 ± 0.04 W m−2, mainly due to changes in the cloud radiative effect (CRE). There is also a negative ERF from land use change (−0.17 ± 0.04 W m−2). When adjusted from year 1850 to 1700, it is more negative than the range of previous estimates, and is most likely due to too strong an albedo response. In combination, the net anthropogenic ERF (1.76 ± 0.04 W m−2) is consistent with other estimates. By including interactions between GHGs, stratospheric and tropospheric O3, aerosols, and clouds, this work demonstrates the importance of ES interactions when quantifying ERFs. It also suggests that rapid adjustments need to include chemical as well as physical adjustments to fully account for complex ES interactions.
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Zhu, Xiaowei, Zhiyong Kong, Jian Cao, Ruina Gao e Na Gao. "Attributing the Decline of Evapotranspiration over the Asian Monsoon Region during the Period 1950–2014 in CMIP6 Models". Remote Sensing 16, n.º 11 (5 de junho de 2024): 2027. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs16112027.
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Evapotranspiration (ET) accounts for over half of the moisture source of Asian monsoon rainfall, which has been significantly altered by anthropogenic forcings. However, how individual anthropogenic forcing affects the ET over monsoonal Asia is still elusive. In this study, we found a significant decline in ET over the Asian monsoon region during the period of 1950–2014 in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The attribution analysis suggests that anthropogenic aerosol forcing is the primary cause of the weakening in ET in the historical simulation, while it is only partially compensated by the strengthening effect from GHGs, although GHGs are the dominant forcings for surface temperature increase. The physical mechanisms responsible for ET changes are different between aerosol and GHG forcings. The increase in aerosol emissions enhances the reflection and scattering of the downward solar radiation, which decreases the net surface irradiance for ET. GHGs, on the one hand, increase the moisture capability of the atmosphere and, thus, the ensuing rainfall; on the other hand, they increase the ascending motion over the Indian subcontinent, leading to an increase in rainfall. Both processes are beneficial for an ET increase. The results from this study suggest that future changes in the land–water cycle may mainly rely on the aerosol emission policy rather than the carbon reduction policy.
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Leibensperger, E. M., L. J. Mickley, D. J. Jacob, W. T. Chen, J. H. Seinfeld, A. Nenes, P. J. Adams, D. G. Streets, N. Kumar e D. Rind. "Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 11, n.º 8 (29 de agosto de 2011): 24085–125. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-24085-2011.
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Abstract. We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model combined with the GISS general circulation model to calculate the aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period, based on historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. The aerosol simulation is evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that it peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W) of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2), nitrate (−0.2 W m−2), organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2), and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2). The aerosol indirect effect is of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60 % from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources may have already been realized by 2010, however some additional warming is expected through 2020. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010) suggests that an emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.
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Mikšovský, Jiří, Eva Holtanová e Petr Pišoft. "Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data". Earth System Dynamics 7, n.º 1 (11 de março de 2016): 231–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-231-2016.
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Abstract. Monthly near-surface temperature anomalies from several gridded data sets (GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, MLOST, HadCRUT4, 20th Century Reanalysis) were investigated and compared with regard to the presence of components attributable to external climate forcings (associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases, as well as solar and volcanic activity) and to major internal climate variability modes (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and variability characterized by the Trans-Polar Index). Multiple linear regression was used to separate components related to individual explanatory variables in local monthly temperatures as well as in their global means, over the 1901–2010 period. Strong correlations of temperature and anthropogenic forcing were confirmed for most of the globe, whereas only weaker and mostly statistically insignificant connections to solar activity were indicated. Imprints of volcanic forcing were found to be largely insignificant in the local temperatures, in contrast to the clear volcanic signature in their global averages. Attention was also paid to the manifestations of short-term time shifts in the responses to the forcings, and to differences in the spatial fingerprints detected from individual temperature data sets. It is shown that although the resemblance of the response patterns is usually strong, some regional contrasts appear. Noteworthy differences from the other data sets were found especially for the 20th Century Reanalysis, particularly for the components attributable to anthropogenic forcing over land, but also in the response to volcanism and in some of the teleconnection patterns related to the internal climate variability modes.
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Smith, Christopher J., Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher et al. "Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, n.º 16 (17 de agosto de 2020): 9591–618. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020.
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Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.
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Mueller, B. L., N. P. Gillett, A. H. Monahan e F. W. Zwiers. "Attribution of Arctic Sea Ice Decline from 1953 to 2012 to Influences from Natural, Greenhouse Gas, and Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing". Journal of Climate 31, n.º 19 (outubro de 2018): 7771–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0552.1.
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The paper presents results from a climate change detection and attribution study on the decline of Arctic sea ice extent in September for the 1953–2012 period. For this period three independently derived observational datasets and simulations from multiple climate models are available to attribute observed changes in the sea ice extent to known climate forcings. Here we direct our attention to the combined cooling effect from other anthropogenic forcing agents (mainly aerosols), which has potentially masked a fraction of greenhouse gas–induced Arctic sea ice decline. The presented detection and attribution framework consists of a regression model, namely, regularized optimal fingerprinting, where observations are regressed onto model-simulated climate response patterns (i.e., fingerprints). We show that fingerprints from greenhouse gas, natural, and other anthropogenic forcings are detected in the three observed records of Arctic sea ice extent. Beyond that, our findings indicate that for the 1953–2012 period roughly 23% of the greenhouse gas–induced negative sea ice trend has been offset by a weak positive sea ice trend attributable to other anthropogenic forcing. We show that our detection and attribution results remain robust in the presence of emerging nonstationary internal climate variability acting upon sea ice using a perfect model experiment and data from two large ensembles of climate simulations.
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Stevens, Bjorn, Stephanie Fiedler, Stefan Kinne, Karsten Peters, Sebastian Rast, Jobst Müsse, Steven J. Smith e Thorsten Mauritsen. "MACv2-SP: a parameterization of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for use in CMIP6". Geoscientific Model Development 10, n.º 1 (1 de fevereiro de 2017): 433–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017.
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Abstract. A simple plume implementation of the second version (v2) of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, MACv2-SP, is described. MACv2-SP provides a prescription of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect. It was created to provide a harmonized description of post-1850 anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing for climate modeling studies. MACv2-SP has been designed to be easy to implement, change and use, and thereby enable studies exploring the climatic effects of different patterns of aerosol radiative forcing, including a Twomey effect. MACv2-SP is formulated in terms of nine spatial plumes associated with different major anthropogenic source regions. The shape of the plumes is fit to the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, version 2, whose present-day (2005) distribution is anchored by surface-based observations. Two types of plumes are considered: one predominantly associated with biomass burning, the other with industrial emissions. These differ in the prescription of their annual cycle and in their optical properties, thereby implicitly accounting for different contributions of absorbing aerosol to the different plumes. A Twomey effect for each plume is prescribed as a change in the host model's background cloud-droplet population density using relationships derived from satellite data. Year-to-year variations in the amplitude of the plumes over the historical period (1850–2016) are derived by scaling the plumes with associated national emission sources of SO2 and NH3. Experiments using MACv2-SP are performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The globally and annually averaged instantaneous and effective aerosol radiative forcings are estimated to be −0.6 and −0.5 W m−2, respectively. Forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (the Twomey effect) offsets the reduction of clear-sky forcing by clouds, so that the net effect of clouds on the aerosol forcing is small; hence, the clear-sky forcing, which is more readily measurable, provides a good estimate of the total aerosol forcing.
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Beenstock, M., Y. Reingewertz e N. Paldor. "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming". Earth System Dynamics 3, n.º 2 (21 de novembro de 2012): 173–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-173-2012.
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Abstract. We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences, whereas greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated, and the perceived relationship between these variables is a spurious regression phenomenon. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcings might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.
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Collins, William D., Daniel R. Feldman, Chaincy Kuo e Newton H. Nguyen. "Large regional shortwave forcing by anthropogenic methane informed by Jovian observations". Science Advances 4, n.º 9 (setembro de 2018): eaas9593. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aas9593.
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Recently, it was recognized that widely used calculations of methane radiative forcing systematically underestimated its global value by 15% by omitting its shortwave effects. We show that shortwave forcing by methane can be accurately calculated despite considerable uncertainty and large gaps in its shortwave spectroscopy. We demonstrate that the forcing is insensitive, even when confronted with much more complete methane absorption spectra extending to violet light wavelengths derived from observations of methane-rich Jovian planets. We undertake the first spatially resolved global calculations of this forcing and find that it is dependent on bright surface features and clouds. Localized annual mean forcing from preindustrial to present-day methane increases approaches +0.25 W/m2, 10 times the global annualized shortwave forcing and 43% of the total direct CH4forcing. Shortwave forcing by anthropogenic methane is sufficiently large and accurate to warrant its inclusion in historical analyses, projections, and mitigation strategies for climate change.
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Stier, P., J. H. Seinfeld, S. Kinne e O. Boucher. "Aerosol absorption and radiative forcing". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 7, n.º 3 (30 de maio de 2007): 7171–233. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-7-7171-2007.
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Abstract. We present a comprehensive examination of aerosol absorption with a focus on evaluating the sensitivity of the global distribution of aerosol absorption to key uncertainties in the process representation. For this purpose we extended the comprehensive aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM by effective medium approximations for the calculation of aerosol effective refractive indices, updated black carbon refractive indices, new cloud radiative properties considering the effect of aerosol inclusions, as well as by modules for the calculation of long-wave aerosol radiative properties and instantaneous aerosol forcing. The evaluation of the simulated aerosol absorption optical depth with the AERONET sun-photometer network shows a good agreement in the large scale global patterns. On a regional basis it becomes evident that the update of the BC refractive indices to Bond and Bergstrom (2006) significantly improves the previous underestimation of the aerosol absorption optical depth. In the global annual-mean, absorption acts to reduce the short-wave anthropogenic aerosol top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing clear-sky from –0.79 to –0.53 W m−2 (33%) and all-sky from –0.47 to –0.13 W m−2 (72%). Our results confirm that basic assumptions about the BC refractive index play a key role for aerosol absorption and radiative forcing. The effect of the usage of more accurate effective medium approximations is comparably small. We demonstrate that the diversity in the AeroCom land-surface albedo fields contributes to the uncertainty in the simulated anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcings: the usage of an upper versus lower bound of the AeroCom land albedos introduces a global annual-mean TOA forcing range of 0.19 W m−2 (36%) clear-sky and of 0.12 W m−2 (92%) all-sky. The consideration of black carbon inclusions on cloud radiative properties results in a small global annual-mean all-sky absorption of 0.05 W m−2 and a positive TOA forcing perturbation of 0.02 W m−2. The long-wave aerosol radiative effects are small for anthropogenic aerosols but become of relevance for the larger natural dust and sea-salt aerosols.
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Stier, P., J. H. Seinfeld, S. Kinne e O. Boucher. "Aerosol absorption and radiative forcing". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7, n.º 19 (10 de outubro de 2007): 5237–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5237-2007.
Texto completo da fonteResumo:
Abstract. We present a comprehensive examination of aerosol absorption with a focus on evaluating the sensitivity of the global distribution of aerosol absorption to key uncertainties in the process representation. For this purpose we extended the comprehensive aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM by effective medium approximations for the calculation of aerosol effective refractive indices, updated black carbon refractive indices, new cloud radiative properties considering the effect of aerosol inclusions, as well as by modules for the calculation of long-wave aerosol radiative properties and instantaneous aerosol forcing. The evaluation of the simulated aerosol absorption optical depth with the AERONET sun-photometer network shows a good agreement in the large scale global patterns. On a regional basis it becomes evident that the update of the BC refractive indices to Bond and Bergstrom (2006) significantly improves the previous underestimation of the aerosol absorption optical depth. In the global annual-mean, absorption acts to reduce the short-wave anthropogenic aerosol top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing clear-sky from −0.79 to −0.53 W m−2 (33%) and all-sky from −0.47 to −0.13 W m−2 (72%). Our results confirm that basic assumptions about the BC refractive index play a key role for aerosol absorption and radiative forcing. The effect of the usage of more accurate effective medium approximations is comparably small. We demonstrate that the diversity in the AeroCom land-surface albedo fields contributes to the uncertainty in the simulated anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcings: the usage of an upper versus lower bound of the AeroCom land albedos introduces a global annual-mean TOA forcing range of 0.19 W m−2 (36%) clear-sky and of 0.12 W m−2 (92%) all-sky. The consideration of black carbon inclusions on cloud radiative properties results in a small global annual-mean all-sky absorption of 0.05 W m−2 and a positive TOA forcing perturbation of 0.02 W m−2. The long-wave aerosol radiative effects are small for anthropogenic aerosols but become of relevance for the larger natural dust and sea-salt aerosols.
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Yun, Y., J. E. Penner e O. Popovicheva. "The effects of hygroscopicity of fossil fuel combustion aerosols on mixed-phase clouds". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 12, n.º 8 (9 de agosto de 2012): 19987–20006. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-19987-2012.
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Abstract. Fossil fuel black carbon and organic matter (ffBC/OM) are often emitted together with sulfate, which coats the surface of these particles and changes their hygroscopicity. Observational studies show that the hygroscopicity of soot particles can modulate their ice nucleation ability. To address this, we implemented a scheme that uses 3 levels of soot hygroscopicity (hydrophobic, hydrophilic and hygroscopic) and used laboratory data to specify their ice nuclei abilities. The new scheme results in significant changes to anthropogenic forcing in mixed-phase clouds. The net forcing in off-line studies varies from 0.111 to 1.059 W m−2 depending on the ice nucleation capability of hygroscopic soot particles. The total anthropogenic cloud forcing and whole-sky forcing with the new scheme is 0.06 W m−2 and −2.45 W m−2, respectively, but could be more positive if hygroscopic soot particles are allowed to nucleate ice particles. The change in liquid water path dominates the anthropogenic forcing in mixed-phase clouds.