Literatura científica selecionada sobre o tema "And Industry Forecast 2022-2027"

The article assesses the feasibility of establishing a regional economic cluster. The assessment is tested for the tourism industry. It is based on a two-level classification system of Russian regions and simulation modeling. The classification made it possible to single out typological groups of regions with different industry orientations and to identify groups of different industry development levels. Simulation modeling required studying a number of indicators of the tourism industry and identifying patterns and processes occurring in it in a formalized form. Using built models, the results of the tourism industry between 2018–2027 were predicted. Along with that, the investments were provided for the establishment and development of a tourist and recreational cluster.

Abstract For a few years now, the concept of Human 2.O has been very present in industry. Among the lines of work of Human 2.0, perhaps the best known is that of supporting the capabilities that humans have. Thus, we can talk about increasing human cognitive capabilities (example - augmented reality) and also physical capabilities (example -exoskeletons). And this last case is the one that we are going to evaluate in this study. The exoskeleton market was valued at USD 354.22 million in 2021, and it is expected to reach USD 1620.04 million in 2027, registering a CAGR of 12.5% during the forecast period (2022-2027). The development and production of exoskeletons requires the collaboration of experts from different fields, including engineers, medical professionals and designers. It is a task undertaken by specialized companies that focus on developing advanced exoskeletons that meet the needs of users. And finally, with all this analysis we have to think about the future of exoskeletons in the healthcare sector. Are they really going to satisfy the current needs of workers in the sector? Can their costs be assumed by health organizations? What will happen to the possible rejection of their use by patients? This and other questions must be answered in a very short period of time.

The textile industry of China has been facing with fierce competition and transformational pressures. It is of great significance to study the evolution of textile industry’s technological progress and to predict the trends. The study analyses the technological innovation ability of China’s textile industry based on the data of 270,145 patent applications from 1987 to 2016. At the same time, the Logistic model is used to forecast the technology innovation capability of China’s textile industry. The study found out: the number of Chinese textile patent applications is on a upward trend; enterprises and universities are the most important patentee; the regional distribution of textile technology innovation is uneven; the number of patent applications in the southeast coastal areas is the largest; the distribution of the IPC is also uneven, D06 (fabric treatment) having the largest number of patent applications and the fastest growth rate; China’s textile industry technology innovation has entered a maturity stage in 2018, and will enter the recession stage after 2027 based on the Logistic model.

Abstract The paper presents the results of forecasts made for the volume of steel production in Poland based on actual data for the period from 2006 to 2021 with forecasting until 2026. The actual data used for the forecasts included annual steel production volumes in Poland (crude steel) in millions of tons. Basic adaptive methods were used to forecast the volume of steel production for the next five years. When selecting the methods, the course of the trend of the studied phenomenon was taken into account. In order to estimate the level of admissibility of the adopted forecasting methods, as well as to select the best forecasts, the errors of apparent forecasts (ex post) were calculated. Errors were calculated in the work: RMSE Root Mean Square Error being the square root of the mean square error of the ex-post forecasts yt for the period 2006-2021; ? as the mean value of the relative error of expired forecasts y*t (2006-2021) – this error informs about the part of the absolute error per unit of the real value of the variable yt. Optimization of the forecast values was based on the search for the minimum value of one of the above-mentioned errors, treated as an optimization criterion. In addition, the value of the point forecast (for 2022) obtained on the basis of the models used was compared with the steel production volume obtained for 3 quarters of 2022 in Poland with the forecast for the last quarter. Forecasting results obtained on the basis of the forecasting methods used, taking into account the permissible forecast errors, were considered as the basis for determining steel production scenarios for Poland until 2026. To determine the scenarios, forecast aggregation was used, and so the central forecasts were determined separately for decreasing trends and for increasing trends, based on the average values of the forecasts obtained for the period 2022-2026. The central forecasts were considered the baseline scenarios for steel production in Poland in 2022-2026 and the projected production volumes above the baseline forecasts with upward trends were considered an optimistic scenario, while the forecasted production volumes below the central scenario for downward trends were considered a pessimistic scenario for the Polish steel industry.

According to the "2022-2027 China Internet Video Industry Market Depth Research and Investment Strategy Forecast Report" published by the China Research Institute of Industry, as of the end of June 2021, the size of China's Internet users broke one billion, reaching 1.011 billion people, an increase of 0.22 billion people compared to the end of December 2020, the massive size of Internet users to promote the development of China's online video industry. The size of the short video market will increase more quickly between 2020 and 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of about 44%. The market size will grow at a slower rate during 2023-2025, but will still maintain a CAGR of 16%. China's short video market is expected to reach nearly 600 billion yuan in 2025 [1]. More than a quarter of a day is spent watching short videos on mobile devices in China. Along with visuals and audio, short video has emerged as the "third language" of the mobile Internet. Short-form video has rapidly increased in the new Internet economy. Bilibili's future development has attracted much attention. With the development of the Internet economy and the increase in significant video websites, whether Bilibili can continue its competitive advantage and successfully achieve business transformation has become controversial. This research will analyse Bilibili's business model through a SWOT analysis and make feasible suggestions for its future development.

Abridged English-language version of the annual IMEMO forecast ‘Russia and the World: 2022’ is dedicated to the analysis and the forecast of key trends in the world economy and international relations in 2022. The primary focus is on the issues that are of fundamental importance for ensuring stable economic and political development of Russia in the near (2022) and more distant future. In the preparation of the paper, the long-term experience of predictive research carried out by IMEMO RAS was used. The paper consists of three parts: global trends, economics, and foreign policy. Among the global trends accelerated digitalization and all related social, political, and economic changes; focus on technological competition; climate/environmental and energy agendas are coming to the fore; increasing geopolitical and geo-economic tensions and the raging global pandemic of COVID-19 are highlighted. In the world economy, the authors of the paper expect an increase in inflation, acceleration of digitalization amid intensifying technology competition and the pursuit of digital sovereignty, acceleration of decarbonization, launch of demethanization process, and shifts in food systems. The paper further assesses the prospects of the leading industry drivers of world economic growth in 2022: production of semiconductors; pharmaceuticals and biomedicine; rare earth, non-ferrous, and ferrous metals. In the next section of the paper, political and social trends are analyzed in the countries of North America, Europe, Pacific and South Asia, Post-Soviet space. The final section of the paper gives the forecast of the relations of the Russian Federation with its key foreign partners. Against the backdrop of the renewal of the global economy, which includes energy transition and accelerated digitalization, it is becoming vitally important for Russia to conduct a comprehensive balanced restructuring of the national economy and social sphere. Translation: Artamonova U.Z., Samarskaya L.M., Sokolova P.S., Urumov T.R., translation editors Mamedyarov Z.A., Moiseeva D.E.

A forecast approach of water structure based on GM (1, 1) of the gray system is proposed. Based on economic and water information of Hebei Province from 2000 to 2018, the water use structure of Hebei’s industrial sector form 2019 to 2030 is forecasted according to the composition data and gray system GM (1, 1) model. The forecasting results by the proposed approach shows that the water structure of the tertiary industry has changed from 62.8 : 10.3 : 26.9 in 2018 to 60.5 : 10.2 : 29.3 in 2030. The proportion of water used in the primary and secondary industries has decreased slightly, the proportion of water used in the tertiary industry has increased, and the proportion of water used in the tertiary industry has not changed significantly.

Learning outcomes This case study aims to be taught at an MBA level. Specifically, those students who are majoring in supply chain would benefit the most from this case study. This case study has elements of supply chain management, supply chain strategy, warehousing and logistics, and a digital supply chain for Industry 4.0. The learning outcome of this case study could be seen if the students are able to identify the challenges and opportunities of a digital supply chain for Industry 4.0 and how it could be implemented methodically. Teaching Objective 1: Students should be able to identify what challenges organizations face if they implement a digital supply chain for Industry 4.0. Teaching Objective 2: Students should be able to identify what opportunities can be tapped if Big Data Analytics are used in a supply chain teaching. Objective 3: Students should layout a methodical plan of how an analogue company can gradually achieve the objective of implementing a digital supply chain for Industry 4.0 in procurement function. Case overview/Synopsis Based in the Lahore region of Pakistan, Xarasoft is a footwear manufacturing company which has undertaken a decision to transcend to a digital supply chain for Industry 4.0 by 2027. Asif, who is the Head of the Department of Supply Chain, has to come up with a plan to present in the next meeting with the CEO. Xarasoft is a company that preferred to work in an analogue routine. The company set production targets and sold goods through marketing. With no forecast or exact demand, the company had decided to procure 140 million units of raw material and carrying a huge inventory, a percentage of which had to be thrown away as it started to degrade. While the company did have machinery on the production floor, they were operated manually and were a generation behind. Asif faced the question of what challenges he would face and exactly how would a digital supply chain for Industry 4.0 be implemented in the company. Complexity academic level Masters level supply chain courses Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 9: Operations and Logistics.

The financial report is a vital tool for acquiring insights into a company's financial position and business performance. Through financial statement analysis, crucial indicators pertaining to the company's financial health are unveiled, rendering it a valuable resource for guiding financial decision-making processes and offering a comprehensive portrayal of the company's performance. This study evaluates the financial performance of PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk. and forecasts the company's sales turnover over the next five years. This research adopts a quantitative descriptive approach, utilizing secondary data spanning from 2018 to 2022 from the PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk. The data analysis process encompasses several stages, including (i) Ratio Analysis of Financial Reports from 2018 to 2022, (ii) Compilation of sales data, (iii) Projections of sales figures using the least squares method, and (iv) Forecasting profits for the period from 2023 to 2027. The findings of this study indicate that the PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk. is facing challenges in its financial performance, as the ratio values consistently fall below industry-standard financial metrics. However, the company has demonstrated resilience in maintaining its profitability levels, evidenced by a 6% increase in profit percentage in 2021 compared to 2020. This can be attributed to the company's consistent profit generation efforts, resulting in year-on-year profit growth.

In order to improve the effect of tourism demand forecast, the commercial development of the tourism industry, and the actual experience of users, this paper uses adaptive neural network technology to conduct tourism demand forecast analysis. Moreover, this paper improves the adaptive neural network algorithm so that it can handle multiple data for tourism demand forecast. After improving the algorithm, this paper employs the actual process of tourism demand forecast to construct a tourism demand forecast model based on adaptive neural network technology. After that, this paper combines travel time and space data analysis to determine the system’s functional structure and network topology. Through experimental research, it can be seen that the tourism demand forecast model based on adaptive neural network technology proposed in this paper performs well in tourism demand forecast and meets the actual demand of modern tourism forecast.

Data from official sources on nights spent in an accommodation for tourists in Lombardy are available until 2021. These data on touristic flows for 2020 and 2021 registered a clear downfall because of restrictions related to Covid-19. The aim of this paper is to verify the presence of a full or partial recover of tourists in provinces of Lombardy using short-term predictions for 2022. A time-series procedure has been applied to obtain a forecast estimate for 2022 using an ARMA model with the addition of an exogenous variable. The hypothesis at the basis of the model is that a punctual estimate of the touristic flows could be obtained using an auxiliary variable explaining the number of employees in the food services and hospitality industry. This auxiliary variable is represented as the difference between the number of starting work contracts and the contract terminations. These data are available thanks to the Informative system of mandatory communications provided by the Italian Minister of Labour. The availability of this information is daily guaranteed at level of single municipality but for the purpose of this paper, data have been aggregated at province level. The short-term predictions obtained for 2022 have been used to verify the presence of a recovery respect to the pandemic emergency of Covid-19 using a double growth rate. A first growth rate has been computed comparing the number of estimated tourists respect to the 2021 measuring the existence of a rebound after the restrictions. A second growth rate measured the estimates for 2021 respect to the presences of 2019 to monitor the trends in Lombardy compared to the before Covid-19 period. Preliminary results showed an evident upswing respect to 2021 and a partial recovery respect to 2019 for the majority of Lombard provinces.

Applications that are serverless can be distributed (many services are connected for smooth operation), elastic (resources can be scaled up and down without limit), stateless (interactions and data aren't stored), event-driven (resources are allocated only when triggered by an event), and hostless (apps aren't hosted on a server). Serverless computing is becoming more and more popular as cloud adoption rises. In many respects, serverless computing unleashes the entire potential of cloud computing. we pay only for the resources consumed, and resources are allocated, increased, or decreased dynamically based on user requirements in real-time. It makes sure that when there are no user requests and the application is effectively dormant, resources are immediately scaled to zero. More scalability and significant cost reductions are the outcomes of this. According to research by Global industry Insights, the serverless industry is expected to reach $30 billion in market value by the end of the forecast period, growing at an above-average rate of 25% between 2021 and 2027.

In this volatile world where sustainability is a major concern, the growing importance of the backbone of the economies, the financial sector, is inevitable. This chapter tries to seek the factors responsible for the changes in the financial performance of the commercial banks in Indian banking sector. The secondary data related to selected key performance indicators (KPI) are selected for the top ten banks for the years 2018-19 to 2022-23. These also include the ESG risk rating of these banks that gives an idea of the overall performance of the banks in the long run. The chapter further tries to forecast a trend of the selected KPIs. The results of the exploratory factor analysis followed by dependency tests proved that there is considerable impact of net non-performing assets, current account savings account, and the ratio of fixed assets to total assets on profitability of the banks.

More and more countries are turning to renewable energy to reduce their dependence on traditional fossil fuels as climate change increases. Electric cars have also become a new trend in energy transformation that is strongly supported by many governments. To answer the research questions, we employ a literature review approach and the TOPSIS method based on entropy. This paper begins with a systematic review of the relevant literature to identify key characteristics of the Chinese market for new energy vehicles (NEVs), providing clear theoretical support. Then, the author chose data from 2012 through 2022 as the primary research object for analysis and chose a total of five first-level indicators and fifteen second-level indicators as the main observation indicators. Using the TOPSIS method, the authors evaluate the entire NEV market in China and make predictions for three years into the future. Based on the results, the NEV composite score ranking is continuing to increase, which indicates a very promising future. However, when a black swan event occurs, such as a car safety incident, it can seriously impede its development. One of the most significant contributions is that based on the evaluation scores from the indicators, the positive and negative future state of NEV is indicated. Since the data has not yet been updated to 2023, it is necessary to continue to verify the new data to make up for the lack of data.

The space industry has grown and evolved significantly over the past six decades. Exploitation of space under the auspices of several space states has become an activity in more than 60 countries around the world. For its financing, in addition to state capital, the private sector began to be actively involved in the form of investment resources, which made it possible to increase the pace of its development several times. In recent years, interest in space exploration and the benefits that can be, derived from it has grown significantly. This became possible due to the significant simplification of travel beyond the borders of the Earth under the influence of innovative trends. Therefore, the current trends in the global space industry are, defined in the scientific study. The role of the space sphere in the general development of the country and the formation of its competitive advantages has been, established. The key directions of space travel in our time are outlined, and the role of reusable launch systems for orbital vehicles in their actualization. Described the SN20 reusable launch system developed by SpaceX as a basis for creating opportunities for travel to Mars. Its technical characteristics and the sequence of its licensing procedure for the first launch are, defined. The dynamics of changes in the cost of rocket launches under the influence of innovations were, studied. The reasons for the resumption of trips to the Moon are established, a parallel is, drawn between, the influence, of such trips on the further colonization of Mars. The current trends in the field of satellite launches have been determined, the number of orbital launch attempts by countries has been, analyzed, and the forecast for changes in the number of satellites until 2030 has been determined. The problem of combating space debris, which remained from past missions and will remain from future missions, was, studied. Directions for using space technologies to fight global warming are, defined. Ways of using 3D printing for the needs of future space missions are, analyzed. The structure of the direction of venture capital in space technologies in terms of the countries, as well as in terms of the stages of implementation of space projects in terms of value and quantity, were, studied.

In an article written in the genre of philosophical expertise (the term by B. G. Yudin), within the framework of the virtual approach (virtualism), using the example of aircraft engineering, a “virtual conflict” is described when the manifestations of casus/incident of conflict unfold in social reality, and virtus/the force that generates conflict is located in the knowledge/cognitive structures of actors/subjects of social activity. Errors in the space of virtual conflict are introduced as a category of “virtual errors”: the history of their theorization is given; their hermeneutics in the airline industry is disclosed: the concept/construct “virtual person” within the virtual psychology (virtualism) of the scientific school of N. A. Nosov (1952–2002) in the design of promising aircraft “stands on pause” for more than 30 years leading experts do not consider this situation as a problem. To identify the nature of “negating the obvious” the term “aproblemognosy” has been introduced. The promotion of the ideas of the primacy of the virtual nature of human being and the world in relation to a wide range of technologies is hindered by the context of the understanding of virtual problems, including the nature of the effects of virtual, augmented and replacing realities (hereinafter TVR).It is demonstrated that within the worldview of the mainstream there is a macro-shift which is not distinguished by the mainstream (virtual error of “indistinguishment”): in a sphere of acknowledgment of the essence of virtuality: the concept of virtuality as the “disadvantage of being” suggested by S.S. Horuzhey (1997), primarily in Russia, has being changing to the opposite one — “doubling/overgrowth of being” by David J. Chalmers (2022): “virtual reality is genuine reality”! On their comparison, paradigmatic errors — pathologies of epistems — proposed by researchers have been revealed and their qualifications are given. Erroneous predictions given by D. J. Chalmers about future life in virtual reality as in genuine reality, are qualified in the classification of E. A. Arab-Ogly (1973) and Victor K. Ferkisa (1969) as a futurological intoxication. Failures of mainstream’s attempts to develop the idea of theorization of S.S. Horuzhey’s virtuality through the concept of “disadvantage of being” has been qualified as “theoretical intoxication” (author’s term). It is indicated and proved that the aviation industry is the only possible industry for initiating of work in the sphere of virtual psychophysiology (engineering psychology and / or ergonomics (man-machine study)). An annotated concept and a roadmap for the deployment of works in the field of aircraft has been proposed. According to the law of requisite variety — cybernetic law formulated by William Ross Ashby, — it is given an assessment of the level of maturity — worldview and value system, — of leaders and designers of the domestic aviation industry and the “pessimistic” forecast of prospects of the made offers is given.

Day in and day out, the Workforce Department faces new problems and operational demands. It is very important for the department to respond quickly and understand the best possible action to be taken in each single case. It is unknown in a compromised setting of near-constant shifts in forecast and scheduling, increased customer demands, and changing recruitment and retention of employees. Workforce management around the world has begun to use artificial intelligence (AI)-based workforce management (WFM) software to solve the above problems and reach goals. These tools transform workforce management by helping to anticipate and plan short- and long-term planning. These tools improve Workforce Management by helping to predict short- and long-term scheduling and recruiting requirements, communicate with staff, and at the right time bring customers in contact with the right agent. This chapter addresses AI workforce management intervention and WFM instruments with industry-specific case studies and its experience with the product Workforce Dimensions. Present status and future expectations are also critically reviewed. Techniques of AI and machine learning (ML) are transforming industries, as are goods from thermostats to cars. The global enterprise value generated from AI continues to grow, according to Gartner, and is projected to reach up to $ 3.9 trillion by 2022. But what do these approaches mean for workforce management in the field? The current chapter examines the growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in various HRM functions, as well as the ongoing debate about the expected decline in the usability of human resources in organizations. In the presence of AI in the workplace, HR practitioners are constantly afraid of being replaced by computers/robots/smart business machines. The study aims to recognize AI’s important contribution to enhancing organizational decision-making processes, as well as to enhance awareness of AI’s acceptability and inclusion in the HRM department. Despite the fact that the combination of AI and HRM is attracting a large number of researchers, many aspects of the field remain unexplored. The current research proposes a collaborative approach by stressing the complementary role of HRM in the successful use of AI, and it contributes to the existing literature. Since AI and HR are so intertwined, organizations should concentrate on incorporating AI as a supporting tool for HR rather than attempting to take over HR’s function. Business systems and smart business machines should be designed in such a way that they cannot produce results without the help of HR.

Magnetic tape remains the medium of choice for long-term data storage at the lowest possible cost. Moreover, tape-cartridge capacities are expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of about 40%, resulting in a 128 TByte tape-cartridge capacity by 2022, as forecast by the Information Storage Industry Consortium (INSIC) roadmap [1]. To achieve these capacities in future tape products, the data track width has to be aggressively reduced through ultra-precise tape head positioning.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Insurance is a tool for financial risk management used by individuals, organizations, governments and businesses to safeguard themselves against the risk of uncertain financial losses, such as those occurring as a result of damage during an unexpected disaster. However, providing insurance in areas prone to natural hazard events (for example wildfires, droughts, storms, floods) has long been a challenge, and as extreme weather events around the world become more frequent and severe, the increasing cost of the damage they inflict is pushing the industry to breaking point in certain areas. Since the 1970s, damages from weather-related disasters have increased seven-fold, with 2022 alone seeing $313 billion in global economic losses. Climate change is dramatically shifting the landscape of risks, with the number of severe and frequent disasters forecast to double globally by 2040, causing insurance prices to rise and threatening the viability of insurance as an option for many. As we see areas around the world being hit with increasingly expensive damages and being pushed towards a tipping point of “uninsurability”, this report delves into the various underlying drivers of the problem, and the actions we can take to avoid it. This technical background report for the 2023 edition of the Interconnected Disaster Risks report analyses the root causes, drivers, impacts and potential solutions for the space debris risk tipping point our world is facing through an analysis of academic literature, media articles and expert interviews.