Literatura científica selecionada sobre o tema "Aléa sismique probabiliste"
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Teses / dissertações sobre o assunto "Aléa sismique probabiliste"
Oksuz, Hilal. "Comparaison des estimations d'aléa sismique probabiliste avec les observations (accélérations et intensités)". Thesis, Grenoble, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014GRENU010/document.
Texto completo da fontePSHA calculations rely on several models and assumptions in its components, such as the characterization of seismic sources, the establishment of recurrence laws in magnitude, and the choice of ground-motion prediction equations. The final output of a PSHA study is the hazard curve that gives annual rates of exceedances of different acceleration levels. All steps of the PSHA calculation bear uncertainties. Understanding the impact of these uncertainties on the final output of the PSHA is not straightforward. Until recently, little attention has been paid to testing the final output of PSHA models against observations. Acceleration datasets and intensity databases, partially independent from the PSHA calculations, can be used, as proposed in a handful of recent papers (Stirling & Gerstenberger 2006, Stirling & Gestenberger 2010, Albarello & D'Amico 2008). This study is aimed at testing PSH models in France (MEDD2002, AFPS2006 and SIGMA2012) and also in Turkey (SHARE), developing a quantitative method for comparing predicted and observed number of sites with exceedance over the lifetime of the network. This method builds on the studies of Stirling & Gerstenberger (2010) and Albarello & D'Amico (2008). All sites are sampled, observation time windows are stacked, and the PSHA is evaluated over a large geographical area at once. The objective is to understand the possibilities and limits of this approach, as observation time windows are short with respect to the return periods of interest in earthquake engineering. Results show that the AFPS2006 PSH model is consistent with the observations of the RAP accelerometric network over the acceleration range 40-100 cm/s2 (or 50-200 years of return periods). The MEDD2002 PSH model over-predicts the observed hazard for the return period of 100 years. For longer return periods (475 and 975 years), the test is not conclusive due to the lack of observations for large accelerations. No conclusion can be drawn for acceleration levels of interest in earthquake engineering. The proposed method is applied to Turkey. The PSH model can be tested using longer observation periods and higher accelerations levels than in France. The PSH model is tested for different selections of accelerometric sites, minimum inter-site distance and total observation period. For accelerations between 0.1 and 0.4g, the model is consistent with the observations for all tests. At lower acceleration levels, the agreement between the model and the observations varies depending on the decisions taken. Finally, the PSHA models in France are evaluated using the macroseismic intensity database (SISFrance). Completeness time windows are estimated from statistics on the intensity data (I≥5, MSK). Twenty-five sites are selected, with completeness time periods for I≥5 extending between 66 and 207 years, located in the highest active zones in France. At 100 years return period, MEDD2002 models predicts more sites with exceedances than the observed number of sites. At return periods higher than or equal to 475 years, both models AFPS2006 cannot be discriminated as both are consistent with observations. Considering the uncertainties on the selection of sites, on the determination of completeness time periods, and on the equation selected for converting intensities into accelerations, the results based on macroseismic intensities should be considered very carefully
Aristizabal, Claudia. "Intégration des effets de site dans les méthodes d'estimation probabiliste de l'aléa sismique". Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018GREAU011/document.
Texto completo da fonteThe overall goal of this research work is of provide recommendations on how to integrate site effects into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment, better known as PSHA, a well-known and widely used methodology. Globally used to estimate seismic hazard and risk at regional and local scales. We therefore review the methods available in the literature to obtain the seismic hazard curve at the surface of a soft soil site, starting with the simplest and most generic methods (partially probabilistic), up to the full site-specific methods (partially and fully probabilistic), requiring an excellent site-specific characterization, rarely available except exceptional cases such as the case of Euroseistest site. It is precisely on the example of this site that are compared a number of these methods, as well as a new one. And it is precisely at the Euroseistest that we performed an example of application of the different methods as well as a new one that we propose as a result of this work.The specificity and difficulty of these "site-specific" PSHA studies comes from the non-linear nature of the response of the soft sites, as well as from the fact that the reference rock controlling this response is often very rigid. The "rock to hard rock adjustment" and "convolution" aspects of the rock seismic hazard, together with the amplification function or the transfer function (empirical or numerical) of a site are therefore the subject of particular attention in these studies. comparative studies. A general framework is presented on how to simultaneously take into account the site-specific characteristics, such as the complete or reduced random variability ("single station sigma"), host-to -target adjustments and the linear / nonlinear behavior of a site, where we explain all the followed steps, the different corrections performed, the benefits and difficulties that we found in the process and the ways we sort them and discussing them when the answer was not straight forward.This comparative study is divided into two parts: the first deals with non-site-specific methods and site-specific hybrid methods (probabilistic evaluation of rock hazard and deterministic of the site response). The second deals with two approaches taking into account the convolution of rock hazard and the site response in a probabilistically way. One of the major results of the first is the increase of the epistemic uncertainty on the soft site hazard compared to the rock hazard, due to acumulation of uncertainties associated to each step. Another major common result to both studies is the very important impact of non-linearity on soft sites, as well as the complexity on how to account for them: the variability associated with the use of different non-linear simulation codes appears to be greater than the method-to-method variability associated with the two different full convolution probabilistic methods. We emphasize on the importance of improving the way in which the site effects are included into probabilistic seismic hazard methods, PSHA. And we also emphasize on the importance of instrumenting active sites with soft sediments, such as the Euroseistest, to test and validate numerical models.Finally, a summary of the results, the general conclusions, discussion of key methodological issues, and perspectives for improvement and future work are presented.Keywords: Site Effects, Epistemic Uncertainty, PSHA, single station sigma, host to target adjustments, linear and nonlinear site effects, soil site response
Donniol, Jouve Bénédicte. "Vers l'intégration des taux de déformation dans les modèles de source PSHA en Europe : test de la compatibilité entre les taux de moment sismique et géodésique". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Grenoble Alpes, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024GRALU006.
Texto completo da fonteMost national and international seismic regulations require quantifying seismic hazard based on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) methods. PSHA provides authorities with a basis and reference from which ground motions should be considered for earthquake- resistant design. The knowledge about the sources and the magnitudes that may occur must be interpreted in terms of probabilities of occurrence over future time windows (source model). The source model is combined to a ground-motion model to determine the exceedance probabilities of ground-motion levels at sites of interest over future windows of time. The present research work aims at understanding how geodetic monitoring can provide constraints on the source model.We address the issue of deriving seismic hazard models from strain rate in low-to-moderate seismicity regions. There, the seismicity is diffuse, few earthquakes can be associated to identify active faults, and realistic fault geometries cannot be integrated in seismic hazard studies. Earthquake catalogs, merging instrumental and historical data, are usually used to establish earthquake recurrence models. Although these catalogs extend over several centuries, the observation time windows are often short with respect to the recurrence times of moderate-to-large events and the recurrence models can be weakly constrained. GPS measurements provide estimates for deformation rates and represent an alternative for estimating the future rate of seismicity. The model obtained can be coupled with ground-motion models to estimate probabilistic seismic hazard, similarly to a gridded- seismicity model. Taking advantage of the velocity field generated in EPOS-GNSS in Europe, strain rates maps have been derived for Europe (Piña Valdes et al. 2020). Horizontal velocities are considered to estimate the budget potentially available for earthquakes, which implies understanding the origin of the vertical displacement (tectonics, post-glacial rebound). The new ESHM20 seismic hazard model (Danciu et al. 2021) is tested against this new data, comparing the seismic budgets, accounting for uncertainties both on the ESHM20 source model and on geodetic seismic moment rates. We propose a new methodology to account for the uncertainties associated with geodetic moment rates and we find that the two quantities could be in agreement in high activity areas, and, in some cases in low activity area (as in several french regions). Then, we take advantage of the work made by Marsan and Tan (2020) to generate moment balanced synthetic earthquakes catalogs in order to assess the adequacy of earthquake catalog sampling for long-term seismicity in low-to-moderate seismic regions thanks to geodesy
Lemaire, Jean. "Un modèle d'évaluation de la vulnérabilité sismique du bâti existant selon l'Eurocode : essai méthodologique et application sur un territoire". Thesis, Paris 10, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PA100010/document.
Texto completo da fonteThe seismic risk is a subject of multidisciplinary study which is the object of numerous research works. For a long time, it was studied in terms of hazard and it is only in the middle of the 20th century that we became interested in the vulnerability of the exposed elements. In spite of the multiplicity of the studies on the seismic risk, none of them adopts a global approach by using the earthquake-resistant regulations. Within the framework of thesis, we support the hypothesis that it possible to estimate the vulnerability of dwellings on the scale of several buildings by using the European standard, Eurocode 8. Using these regulations has the advantage reducing the time to study physical vulnerability by assessing the seismic resistance of a single building, where the latter represents a population of several buildings used as collective dwellings. The proposed methodology, illustrated on the example of the Mulhouse-Basel conurbation, consists of two phases. The first one consists in studying the seismic hazard of the urban area of Mulhouse and Basel through the bibliographical studies of some authors. This phase also consists in examining the compatibility of the European and Helvetian seismic regulations. Finally, a diagnosis of the existing structures and of the population is made to assess the vulnerability of these two urban territories, after a division of both cities into historic-geographical sectors. A second phase consists in proposing a simplified model of deterministic and probabilistic assessment of the vulnerability of the built, based on the new European regulation and the mechanics of the structures, to evaluate the seismic resistance of buildings. The probability aspect allowed to refine the proposed model to integrate certain uncertainties. A case study feigning an important earthquake of magnitude Mw equal to 6 on the Richter scale, integrating the phenomena of site effects as recommended by Eurocode 8, validated the application of the envisaged model. The proposed evaluation model is intended to provide a tool for assessing the vulnerability of the built without performing mechanical calculations. Thus, it aims to be accessible to all (geographers, engineers, seismologists, etc…). More generally, this model aims to provide a decision-making tool in the approach of prevention which the public authorities owe to the population, because they allow to determine the more or less big vulnerability of the studied areas
Beauval, Céline. "Analyse des incertitudes dans une estimation probabiliste de l'aléa sismique, exemple de la France". Phd thesis, 2003. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00673231.
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