Gotowa bibliografia na temat „Third World cinema”

In this study, we analyze the films in the world cinema category that have been screened at the two most important international film festivals in Spain: The San Sebastian International Film Festival, and the Valladolid International Film Week in the period of 2016-2021. It is also studied the output of these festivals in terms of screenings in the Spanish cinemas during the same period. The results show that nearly a third of the films at these two festivals belong to world cinema, and about a third of these films screened at the festivals have been shown in cinemas.

This paper attempts to analyse the images that animated a political movement called the Odessa Collective in Kerala since 1984. It produced six films – Amma Ariyan (A Report to Mother, 1986), Ithrayum Yathabhagam (Journey So Far, 2003), Vettayadapetta Manasu (Haunted Mind, 2006), Mortuary of Love (2009), Agnirekha (Line of Fire, 2011) and Holy Cow (2015). This paper tries to argue that the twenty-two years of this movement's politics can be studied as an assemblage of the man and machine in a Deleuzian framework on cinema of the Third World. It tries to conceptualise the linkages between the Cinéma Vérité of Jean Rouch and the Third Cinema of Solanas and Getino or the milieu of the political which creates realistic documentation in cinema. It looks at the concepts like desire and representation that intersect between these two different genres in order to reconceptualise the political in relation to Deleuze on cinema.

Abstract The answers below touch on three different meanings of world cinema. First, world cinema is the acknowledgement of an existing cinema originated in the diversity of geographical and cultural contexts from all over the globe and expresses the rise of multiple local cinemas on a common international scene. Second, world cinema denotes to the films that proved to be recognizable as artistically valuable through these channels (festivals, critics, niche distributors) and conveys the idea that only certain types of films would be accepted on the international scene. And third, world cinema relates to a more specific type of films, that are not so many but gives a particular visibility to an immensely vast phenomenon with films that are either “without borders”, or mixing various origins and references. By keeping these in mind, the research on world cinema should be issue based, acknowledging de vast rainbow of various ways to make cinema, related with socio-economical and cultural contexts, political environment, inscription in various aspects of history of cinema aesthetics and other artistic and cultural means of expressions, local, regional and global. The films of world cinema are, or at least should be objects of research, objects of thinking, but also if not primarily objects of love.

This article analyzes the intersection of Third Worldist materialism and decolonial epistemologies in the Arab world by focusing on Lebanese filmmaker Heiny Srour’s decolonial feminist cinema in the transitional period of the 1970s to 1990s. It proposes to read Srour’s disenchanted critique of masculine Third World nationalisms and Western feminism as a practice of worldmaking that is grounded within colonial-patriarchal modernity. Using Srour’s own trajectory as an entry point into larger debates, the article reflects on what affiliation to third cinema means for crafting a cinema of liberation that reconfigures gender relations. Srour’s Leila and the Wolves (1984) exemplifies such an expansive praxis of third cinema by combining a feminist historiography that centers oral tales, myth, and genealogies with a commitment to the armed struggle. The article concludes that Srour’s decolonial feminist cinema functions as a pedagogical tool to build cross-gender coalitions necessary for the persistence of the anticolonial struggle.

The decline of the nationalised film industry of the 1960s and 1970s ushered in a period of great change for Palestinian cinema. As the local infrastructure that briefly supported a flourishing Third Cinema began to diminish, the locus of film production shifted outward, forging a new Palestinian cinema that was contextually national yet structurally transnational. Yet, emerging from one of the last bastions of colonialism the political agenda that characterised Third Cinema remained pertinent for those making films for and about Palestine. Within the cinematic transformation of Palestinian cinema there lies a tension between the prefigured politics of Third Cinema and the new systems of production and dissemination new Palestinian filmmakers began working in, once construed as institutions formed by the very economic and imperial forces it so vehemently opposed. This thesis traces Palestine's cinematic transition, examining how filmmakers negotiate the national movement in these new systems and spaces of meaning production. The political agenda that characterised Third, I argue here, is not forgotten but re-inscribed in the new cinema.

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Engajado no exercício de uma prática cinematográfica que objetiva denunciar os males da opressão, Glauber Rocha adquiriu prestígio internacional com uma produção marcada por dimensões políticas. Analisar os atributos políticos e estéticos presentes em O leão de sete cabeças, filmado no Congo, em 1969, é a proposta deste trabalho. No filme, ao discutir a questão colonialista na África, o cineasta criticou a espoliação decorrente dos séculos de colonização e estabeleceu o elogio das lutas de libertação nacional no continente. Ademais, o artista questionou as noções de civilizado e bárbaro ao pôr em ação a idéia de realizar um cinema voltado ao Terceiro Mundo.
Engaged in the exercise of a practice that aims denounce the evils of oppression, Glauber Rocha gained international prestige with a production marked by political dimensions. To analyze the attributes politicians and aesthetic gifts in O leão de sete cabeças, filmed in the Congo, in 1969, is the proposal of this work. In the film, to discuss the issue colonialist in Africa, the filmmaker criticized the despoliation resulting from centuries on the colonization and established the praise of struggles for national liberation on the continent. Moreover, the artist questioned the notions of civilized and barbarian to put into action the idea of doing a cinema dedicated to the Third World.

Nous étudions un corpus de films dédiés aux luttes de libération autour de la Tricontinentale de 1966 à 1975. Par l’expression "tricontinentale", nous désignons les "trois continents" du tiers-monde (l'Afrique, l'Asie et l'Amérique Latine), et surtout la Conférence de Solidarité Tricontinentale qui s’est tenue à La Havane en 1966, ainsi que l'organisation et la revue du même nom. La Tricontinentale, dont Mehdi Ben Barka avait présidé le comité préparatoire de cet événement qui devait renforcer l'unité du tiers-monde en lutte contre l'impérialisme, le colonialisme et le néo-colonialisme à l’échelle mondiale. Nous commençons par retracer la genèse du cinéma dans les luttes de libération (la guerre d’indépendance algérienne), avant de proposer un corpus de films autour de la constellation tricontinentale, en prenant en compte l’image fixe (l’affiche) et animée (le film). Ensuite, ce corpus est mis en situation autour de deux axes principaux : l’Afrique et l’Amérique latine, avec la guerre du Vietnam en toile de fond. Il concerne notamment les cinéastes suivants : Santiago Álvarez, Julio García Espinosa, Mario Handler, William Klein, Yann Le Masson, Glauber Rocha, Alberto Roldán, Ugo Ulive, René Vautier. Ce cinéma de la libération du tiers-monde s’accompagne d’une production théorique que nous étudierons, à travers des textes comme : "Pour un cinéma parallèle" (anonyme), "Esthétique de la violence" (G. Rocha), "Vers un troisième cinéma" (F. Solanas et O. Getino"), "Pour un cinéma imparfait" (J. G. Espinosa). Les caractéristiques stylistiques et formelles de ces films axés sur la libération sont analysées, avant d’interroger le passage de l’heure des brasiers à l’heure des cendres et du désarroi, en questionnant l’apport théorique et pratique des films de notre corpus
We study a corpus of films dedicated to the liberation struggles around the Tricontinental from 1966 to 1975. The expression "Tricontinental" applies to the three continents of the third world (Africa, Asia and Latin America), and mainly the Tricontinental Solidarity Conference which took place in Havana in1966, and also the organization and the publication with the same name. Mehdi Ben Barka was the Chairman of the Preparing Committee of the Tricontinental event, which had to reinforce the unity of the struggling third world against imperialism, colonialism and neo-colonialism all over the world. First, we show the genesis of cinema in the liberation struggles (the Algerian war of independence). Then we create a corpus of films around the tricontinental constellation, taking into account the posters and the animated images. This corpus is located at two main places: Africa and Latin America, at the background of Vietnam war. It includes works directed by: Santiago Álvarez, Julio García Espinosa, Mario Handler, William Klein, Yann Le Masson, Glauber Rocha, Alberto Roldán, Ugo Ulive, René Vautier. Various texts were written accompanying this cinema of third world’s liberation. We examine theories and manifestos such as: "For a Parallel Cinema (Anonymous)", "Esthetic of violence" (G. Rocha), "Towards a third cinema" (F. Solanas and O. Getino), "For an Imperfect Cinema" (J.G. Espinosa). The stylistic and the formal characteristics of these films are analyzed, in order to question the crossing from the hour of furnaces to the hour of the ashes and confusion, thinking about the theoretical and practical impact of these films

Dominant approaches in film studies reflect the deeply-rooted assumption – inherited in large part from Marx and Foucault – that human nature and human history are inherently characterized by conflict and the struggle for power. However, this normative adversarialism prevents us from acknowledging the experiences and works of individuals who operate under a different set of foundational assumptions based instead on mutualism, cooperation, and forms of power that do not engage in zero-sum struggles. This dissertation will treat adversarialism not as an essential, inevitable, or preferable aspect of human nature, but rather as a culturally learned pattern of behavior that can be overcome, both individually and collectively. How would dominant theoretical frameworks in film studies be affected by a view of human nature that does not celebrate moments of conflict and adversarialism, but mutualistic tendencies instead? By mobilizing the definition provided by the Bahá’í discourse community (BDC) of “world citizenship” as a global ethic founded on the inherent oneness of humanity, this study will challenge three generally adversarial assumptions in the study of film: 1) That any filmmaker working within a non-democratic or “oppressive” state is politically worthy of celebration primarily when actively criticizing the politics of that state; 2) That any filmmaker with a complex multicultural background will have a psychologically difficult time reconciling their own cultural differences and reflect that internal struggle in their films; and 3) That conflict is an essential part of any popular cinematic narrative. Current approaches to filmmaking in an era of globalization, operating under normative adversarialism and often emphasizing the articulation of difference, are inadequate to explain the works of filmmakers living and working within a mutualistic ethic of world citizenship. By taking Dayyan Eng – a multicultural filmmaker based in Beijing, China – as the primary case study, I will develop a “world citizen” framework based on the articulation of the essential oneness of humanity and a filmmaker’s development of a “triple fluency” (cinematic, cultural, and industrial) to address limitations inherent in existing concepts in order to more appropriately illuminate the works of other media makers who work and live according to similar conceptual frameworks.

AbstractToday, physician-assisted suicide and/or euthanasia are legal in several European countries, Canada, several jurisdictions in the United States and Australia, and may soon become legal in many more jurisdictions. While traditional Hippocratic and religious medical ethics have long opposed these practices, contemporary culture and politics have slowly weakened opposition to physician-assisted suicide and euthanasia. Our chapter examines how assisted suicide and euthanasia have been presented in cinema, one of the most powerful influences on culture, by Nazi propagandists during the German Third Reich and by Western filmmakers since the end of World War II.Almost all contemporary films about assisted suicide and euthanasia, including six winners of Academy Awards, promote these practices as did Ich klage an (I Accuse) (1941), the best and archetypal Nazi feature film about euthanasia. The bioethical justifications of assisted suicide or euthanasia in both Ich klage an and contemporary films are strikingly similar: showing mercy; avoiding fear and/or disgust; equating loss of capability with loss of a reason to live; enabling self-determination and the right-to-die; conflating voluntary with involuntary and nonvoluntary euthanasia; and casting opposition as out-of-date traditionalism. Economics and eugenics, two powerful arguments for euthanasia during the Third Reich, are not highlighted in Ich klage an and are only obliquely mentioned in contemporary cinema. One dramatic difference in the cinema of the two periods is the prominence of medical professionals in Ich klage an and their conspicuous absence in contemporary films about assisted suicide and euthanasia. A discussion of the medical ethos of the two time periods reveals how cinema both reflects and influences the growing acceptance of assisted suicide and euthanasia.

Abstract One major function of musical numbers in cinema serves as utopian moments not only for the characters to temporarily step aside from the diegetic story space, but also for the audience to envision ‘what utopia would feel like’, something that may or may not be realised at the end of the film. Such a film genre has not been common in Third Cinema, a preferred style and aesthetic for many African films debuted since Ousmane Sembène, who likened the modern African filmmaker to the traditional griot: a storyteller with a movie camera, who commonly defies the mainstream commercial cinema’s escapist narrative strategy and opts for a style that ‘shoots back’ to Hollywood’s dominant centre. Joseph Gaï Ramaka’s Karmen Geï (2001) and Flora Gomes’s Nha Fala (2002) are the first two African musical films that use the genre’s conventions to integrate traditional and hybridised musical practices of the storyteller with a liberating message. The results are two pioneering films seeking to restore Africa to its proper place through a modernised means of storytelling, cinema and rescue the voice of Africa through the heroines’ ‘redemption songs’ for a hopeful vision that may be realised via the craft of the filmmaker-griot storyteller.

We believe that income divide among countries due to globalization, growing poorness and increasing unemployment aroused a necessity for social values to create on economical base. In this context arising economical and social issues bring some new responsibilities upon international institutions, governments, NGO’s, and firms. Social entrepreneurship concept is among these responsibilities. This concept is particularly important for firms that are placed in intersection of private and third sector and other institutions adopting market-based methods. Social entrepreneurism that focusing on social missions affect all the decisions how to capture and evaluate opportunities in all the dimensions of life. Social entrepreneurs who are motivated by social bearings rather than solely making profits are present in social and cultural aspects of life in addition to presence in the market. In this study social entrepreneurism producing more economic and social value than its traditional counterpart is about to be examined in Turkish context with two awarded cases. First is SineMASAL (Cine-Tale) social entrepreneurship that aims to embrace all the rural kids with artistic fields including the cinema. This entrepreneurship particularly aims to provide country kids who have limited access to social and economical life with some opportunities that would help them to have a better future, at least to support them having a positive attitude towards potentialities. Another one is the e-Hastam (My e-Patient) entrepreneurship that matches physicians and patients on virtual platform where everybody could benefit from actual health information and activities.

Traditionally, Spanish schools of civil engineering provide their students a class on “Technical English” in order to develop their language skills. However, this class does not cover all the skills that the student would need in the labor market and mainly focuses in the reading and writing skills, and in a lower degree in the speaking and listening ones. This paper proposes a series of innovative and informal training activities (cine-forum on technical civil engineering topics and role playing on real professional situations) that allow Spanish civil engineering students to develop English skills that can rarely be worked in the classroom (i.e. speaking, negotiating and conversing), encouraging debate, participation, and fostering their self-confidence to speak about technical-English topics in public. Although the students’ level of English is much lower than expected, they all agree on the importance of technical English for their future career. The results also show the students’ lack in skills that are difficult to train in regular classes (speaking and talking). Consequently, this situation would require to provide complementary activities like the ones suggested in this project in order to develop these skills and increase the students’ demand for engineering classes taught in English.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.