Gotowa bibliografia na temat „Supply chain- Index”

Background: The large percentage of research in this area focuses on the triple-bottom line of sustainability, which entails understanding the economic, social, and environmental outcomes of supply chain process. A few sustainability measures have been proposed in the literature to recognize supply chain sustainability, assisting interested parties in making strategic decisions. Researchers and practitioners alike have become more aware of and interested in sustainable supply chain management. The majority of these studies, however, focus on supply chains in wealthy countries, with little research on sustainable supply chains in poor countries. Existing research focuses solely on the triple bottom line approach to supply chain sustainability, and more study is needed to identify and quantify additional components of supply chain sustainability. Although the lack of empirical evidence in the current conceptual study, it intends to propose this index to improve the evaluation and health coverage of public health supply chains. It will serve as a starting point for more study and will allow for actual testing of the index in public health supply chains.

The shipbuilding industry shows a special interest in adapting to the changes proposed by the industry 4.0. This article bets on the development of an index that indicates the current situation considering that supply chain is a key factor in any type of change, and at the same time it serves as a control tool in the implementation of improvements. The proposed indices provide a first definition of the paradigm or paradigms that best fit the supply chain in order to improve its sustainability and a second definition, regarding the key enabling technologies for Industry 4.0. The values obtained put shipbuilding on the road to industry 4.0 while suggesting categorized planning of technologies.

Purpose Around the world, protecting environment and purchasing green products by the manufacturing firms progressively becomes a popular and important issue. Manufacturers are realizing the importance of producing green products under green practices. This study aims to propose an appraisement platform to evaluate the overall performance index of a firm under green practices. Furthermore, the study also helps in identifying ill-performing areas, which necessarily require future attention to augment green supply chain (GSC) of a firm. A case research is conducted to assess the real-life application by the proposed approach. Design/methodology/approach The authors used fuzzy performance index to measure the overall performance index of a firm. Beside this, they proposed a degree of similarity approach amalgamated with fuzzy performance importance index to classify the ills and strong indices in GSC extent. Finding The intermittent assessment of green practices and their metrics in the organizational supply chain management (SCM) is indeed necessary. The present study provides an appraisement module to assess overall GSC fuzzy performance index and also helps in identifying the ill-performing areas which require future augmentation toward successful green implementation. Originality/value The exposed research work dealt with chains of subjective indices (measure and their interrelated metrics), which are induced into hierarchical appraisement module. To tackle the uncertainty of indices, the subjective indices are transposed into interval-valued fuzzy number set (IVFNS), as IVFNs are preferred to undertake the uncertainty of GSC indices. The proposed approach is demonstrated with a case research to justify its validity and originality.

Constructed of lean supply chain health instead of overall supply chain performance and stability of the supply chain, such as the original concept to illustrate and evaluate the superiority of lean construction supply chain. Lean construction supply chain health evaluation index system, contain other supply chain node enterprise learning orientation, the industry healthy degree, core enterprise strength, node enterprise their own capabilities, interactive relationship between enterprises, governments, industry environment and so on six big indexes and 21 measures of points, promote enterprise healthy development, construction supply chain, play to the value of the evaluation index system.

Pharmaceuticals companies manufacture and maintain the stocks of several medicines. Presently, hospitals maintain stock to supply the appropriate medicine to patients under their care. The availability of medicines is dependent on the service level of suppliers. In last decade, the pharmaceutical supply chains have been an increasingly important topic. Pharmaceutical supply chains of the medicine manufacturing firm are based on traditional supply chain strategies. But, the concept became obsolete, replaced by modern supply chain strategy. The modern supply chain better analyzes pharmaceutical architectures such as green, service, agile, resilient, flexible manufacturing and is called the pharmaceutical G-F-A-L-R supply chain. To evolve a new model for the pharmaceutical supply chain, a 2nd second level pharmaceutical hierarchy G-F-A-L-R supply chain module structure has been constructed, where a Fuzzy Performance Index model has been applied on the module to compute the overall performance of individual pharmaceutical companies.

Risk for an organization is associated with uncertainties in all areas of its operations. As firms move toward global sourcing, supply chain risk increases dramatically, which is linked to lower financial performance and market value. One major type of supply chain risk is disruptions caused by natural or man-made disasters. In this paper, major factors causing supply chain disruptions are identified based on resource dependency theory and contingency theory. As a result of the study, a comprehensive supply chain risk index for natural disasters is proposed by including two major factors (i.e. location and single source). Actions are suggested for supply chain managers to lower disruption risks within a supply chain when they use the risk index as a measure.

The risk management for agricultural products supply chain is more complex than that for typical manufacturing supply chain. Agricultural production is vulnerable to severe weather such as heavy rain, cyclones, and cold wave, which challenges the matching of random output with random demand for agricultural products supply chains. The goal of this paper is to design an effective risk transfer mechanism for managing severe weather risks so as to ensure the stable operation of the agricultural products supply chain. We study the coordination of two-level agricultural products supply chain with a single company and a single farmer under the influence of severe weather. Taking rainstorm weather as an example, this paper designs a risk transfer mechanism based on weather index (rainfall) insurance: “rainfall index insurance + revenue sharing + risk transfer fee.” It is found that this risk transfer mechanism can overcome distortion of the farmer’s agricultural investment level under the influence of severe weather. When the contract parameters meet certain conditions, using the risk transfer mechanism can achieve the supply chain coordination and a win-win situation. More importantly, weather change does not affect the Pareto improvement of the company and the farmer under the risk transfer mechanism. In addition, we also find that the company can incentivize the farmer to purchase weather index insurance and use the insurance market to shift the severe weather risk encountered during the agricultural production to protect the company’s and farmer’s income and the stable operation of the supply chain.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the supply chain leagility proposing all supply chains are leagile with different magnitudes of leanness and agility. A new index, “Deviation from Leagility” (DFL), is introduced, aiming to optimise supply chain design and investigate the relationship between supply chain leagility and firm performance. Design/methodology/approach The partial least squares (PLS) method was employed to analyse data collected from 299 Australian firms by administering a structured questionnaire. Findings The results indicate that most companies adopt the leagile supply chain rather than the lean or pure agile design. Furthermore, better business performance is achievable when deviation from a balanced supply chain in which both aspects of leanness and agility are equally embedded is minimised. Research limitations/implications The study is limited to a number of constraints that measure leagility; further research is needed to incorporate different aspects of agility. Practical implications The findings of this study could provide a guideline for supply chain executives to improve their company’s performance by designing a more balanced leagile supply chain. Originality/value This study is unique in its in-depth empirical investigation of modelling of leagile supply chain using a new index, and also addressing: first, the current mismatch between the well-known mutually exclusive strategies (lean/agile); and second, what has later been found when the proposed models were quantitatively tested.

The background of this project is the need of a better understanding of what sustainable development is and what tools can be used in the fashion supply chain to decrease its ecological footprint. For that purpose the researchers have endeavored to create a new learning board game for fashion industry students that could teach them the basic principles of sustainability and Higg Index. The developed Higg Index Board Game is part of the collaborative work of Swedish School of Textiles and Sustainable Apparel Coalition. The study about the teaching effect of the new game was carried out with a quasi-experimental design and comprised two workshops with the master students from the Swedish School of Textiles as participants. The first workshop was conducted to analyze the principles and environment of the Lean Game that served as a basis for the new game. After that the researchers elaborated the structure and rules for the new game with help of the game-theory and conducted a trial testing of the game to exclude possible basic errors. The Higg Index modules were integrated in the structure of the game in the form of facilities and product-choices that could affect the economy of the game. The second workshop was devoted to playing the new Higg Index Game and evaluating its sustainability teaching effect. The participants were tested with pre- and post-test questionnaires and also observed by the researchers under their discussions during the game. The tests analysis showed that the Higg Index Game teaches lean philosophy, fashion supply chain’s entity and hot spots, and to some extent sustainability and the Higg Index’ function. After playing the game the participants increased their knowledge about sustainability by 10,1%. The researchers concluded that the game can become a teaching module in the sustainability education programs for fashion and textile students and other stakeholders - academics, managers, consultants etc., but needs some further development. Thus, in this study the Higg Index Game is presented as a prototype for future improvements.
Program: Textilt management, styrning av textila värdekedjor

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
As exigências ambientais, regulamentares e mercadológicas têm pressionado as empresas a incorporarem ações e iniciativas voltadas para o desenvolvimento sustentável, para atender a esses requisitos as organizações podem implantar a gestão ambiental, que incluí a adoção de elementos como, o Geen Supply Chain Management (GSCM), consistindo na inserção de inciativas verdes em todos os elos da cadeia de suprimentos tradicional, abrangendo também as atividades relacionadas ao destino correto do produto no final da vida útil. Neste contexto de sustentabilidade a BM&FBovespa criou o Índice de Sustentabilidade Empresarial (ISE), com o intuito de acompanhar o desempenho das ações de empresas que visam pelo desenvolvimento sustentável e transparência nos seus negócios. As companhias constantes no ISE são estimulados pela BM&FBovespa a informar suas ações ambientais por meio do modelo de relatório GRI (Global Reporting Initiative), sendo este reconhecido internacionalmente e permite o acesso livre as informações sobre as políticas, iniciativas e práticas empresarias voltadas para os aspectos econômicos, sociais e ambientais. Neste sentido, o presente trabalho tem o objetivo de elaborar diretrizes para o desenvolvimento dos elementos do GSCM em empresas industriais. Para cumprir com este objetivo, o trabalho realizou uma pesquisa documental nos relatórios GRI das empresas de manufatura listadas no ISE, para identificar os elementos e dificuldades de implantação do GSCM, posteriormente foram realizados três estudos de caso em companhias de diferentes segmentos para comparar as boas práticas e dificuldades encontradas, em seguida foi elaborada as diretrizes de implantação do GSCM baseando-se nos elementos considerados neste trabalho tais como, marketing verde, gestão ambiental, green design, avaliação do ciclo de vida, fornecedores verdes, produção mais limpa, embalagens e transporte sustentáveis, cooperação dos clientes e logística reversa.
Environmental and marketing regulatory requirements have pushed companies to incorporate actions and initiatives through sustainable development. The emergence of environmental management practices, such as green supply chain management (GSCM), which consists of the insertion of green initiatives in all links of the supply chain, since the supplier until the final disposal of products, have been increasing. Aiming at sustainable development and business transparency, BM&FBovespa has created the Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE) to monitor the performance of corporate actions relating to sustainable issues. Moreover, BM&FBovespa stimulate companies to report their environmental actions through the GRI (global reporting initiative) reporting model that allows free access to information, policies and business practices geared to economic, social and environmental topics. Thereby, the present work has the objective of elaborating guidelines for the development of the elements of the GSCM in industrial companies. In order to comply with this objective, the work carried out a documentary survey in the GRI reports of the manufacturing companies listed in the ISE, to identify the elements and difficulties of implementation of the GSCM, three case studies were then carried out in companies from different segments in order to compare the good practices and difficulties encountered, and the GSCM implementation guidelines were elaborated based on the elements considered in this work such as green marketing, environmental management, green Design, life cycle assessment, green suppliers, cleaner production, sustainable packaging and transportation, customer cooperation, and reverse logistics.

Neglected tropical diseases (NTD) in low- and middle-income countries are still not on target per the World Health Organization's (WHO) elimination goal of 2020. Mass drug administration (MDA) is one of the effective strategies supported by the WHO for the control and subsequent elimination of NTD. This quantitative study explored how supply chain logistic capacity may be hampering MDA coverage in countries in which the diseases are endemic. The study examined secondary data from WHO data bank for MDA coverage, to quantify the relationship between supply chain logistics capacity, as measured by the World Bank's logistics performance index (LPIs), and the control of NTD using MDA. The ecological theory of health behavior was the theoretical framework for this study. The research questions explored whether a low- and/or middle-income country's supply chain infrastructure, logistics services, customs and border procedures, and supply chain reliability, predict the coverage of MDA in controlling NTD. A multiple regression model determined the linear relations between each predictor: supply chain infrastructure (H1), logistics services (H2), custom and border procedures (H3), and supply chain reliability (H4) and the control of neglected diseases as determine by MDA. Results indicated that supply chain capacity, custom and border processes, and supply chain reliability are statistically significant in predictors of MDA coverage in the control of NTD in developing countries. This study may enhance social change by improving supply chain capacity for more effective distribution of PCT drugs, thus helping with the elimination of NTDs and improved health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries.

Reverse logistics is a concept of recent introduction and little known in companies of dairy products sector in Zulia state (Venezuela), most of them have started in their implementation; either as part of an after-sales service, or as part of the production and / or marketing process. Apparently, it only needs to be structured integrally and give it a strategic dimension.In this article processes and operations binding aspects of Zulia dairy circuit with reverse logistics are presented. In this sense, the reverse logistics in the supply chain of dairy derivatives companies in Zulia is characterized. Guide strategies and reverse logistics activities as socially responsible practices are submitted. This becomes challenging, since implementing a reverse logistics system as an essential and potential strategy is a difficult issue given the country’s socio-economic and political situation. Reflections are presented to face the barriers in retro logistics implementation. The main one being the need to internalize in each individual rational resources using and acting effectively to engage with private companies and state organizations in the sustainable institutions operations.
El concepto de logística inversa es de reciente introducción y poco conocido en las empresas del sector de derivados lácteos del estado Zulia (Venezuela), la mayoría de ellas se han iniciado en su implementación; bien como parte de un servicio postventa, o como parte del proceso de producción y/o comercialización. Aparentemente solo necesita estructurarse integralmente y darle una dimensión estratégica. En este artículo se presentan los aspectos vinculantes de los procesos y las operaciones del circuito lácteo zuliano con la logística inversa. En este sentido, se caracteriza la logística inversa en la cadena de suministro de empresas zulianas de derivados lácteos y de cómo deben orientar estrategias y actividades de logística inversa como prácticas socialmente responsables. Lo anterior se torna desafiante, pues implantar un sistema de logística inversa como estrategia esencial y potencial, es un tema aún difícil dado la coyuntura socioeconómica y política del país.En lo particular, se presentan reflexiones para afrontar las barreras en la implementación de la retrologística. Siendo la principal, la necesidad de internalizar en cada individuo el uso racional de los recursos y la necesidad de comprometerse efectivamente con las empresas y las organizaciones tanto privadas como del Estado en las operaciones sustentables de las instituciones.

Background: The increased attention to the subject of sustainable development within the fashion industry is frequently explained by how the fashion industry has become global, connecting brands, producers, manufacturers, businesses, and consumers across the entire globe. This has further led to the need for new constellations of global multi stakeholder collaborations. In 2009, a rather remarkable collaboration was announced; Patagonia and Walmart are pairing up to fight for a sustainable apparel, footwear, and textile industry. The collaboration is called The Sustainable Apparel Coalition (SAC) and is today representing nearly half of the entire volume of global production for apparel and footwear. Purpose: The purpose of this research is to identify key decision points and actions in the development of SAC and the Higg Index. The aim is to understand how to create a foundation for sustainable development within the fashion, apparel and textile industry on a global scale. Methodology: The research has been conducted through an exploratory case study of qualitative character, focusing on the development process of SAC and the Higg Index. The data has been collected through in-depth interviews with participants having prior knowledge, insight, participation, and experience of the development process of SAC and the Higg Index. Further the data has been analyzed through an inductive thematic analysis. Result & Analysis: Several interesting themes arrived in the result. However, these were narrowed down to four key factors for the development process of SAC and the Higg Index; Industry collaboration through democratic organizational culture, Getting the right people on the bus, then teaching them how to drive it, Trustworthy standards, communication and transparency throughout the supply chain, and Striving for global sustainable development = good for business. Research Limitations & Suggestions for Future Research: Due to the exploratory character of the study, conclusions have been drawn with caution and has rather aimed to focus on the contribution of new insights, a deeper understanding and increased knowledge of the development of SAC and the Higg Index. The main suggestion for future research is to conduct a study which includes the perspective of the manufacturers and workers within the supply chain. This type of study could assist with gaining further insights of obstacles and potential solutions for how to globally adopt the Higg Index within all levels of the supply chain in the most successful way.

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Resiliência é a capacidade da cadeia de suprimentos de sofrer impactos ou rupturas e se reconfigurar de forma eficiente para atender as demandas do mercado. Estas cadeias estão expostas a perturbações, que podem ser classificadas em de alto impacto, causadas por furacões e terremotos, por exemplo, ou de baixo impacto como problemas de transporte, sazonalidade, falta de flexibilidade, instabilidade produtiva ou indisponibilidade temporária de insumos que ocasiona em interrupções no fornecimento aos participantes seguintes e impacta suas operações. A construção de mecanismos de avaliação da resiliência auxilia no equacionamento destes desequilíbrios na distribuição de bens e produtos, minimizando reflexos negativos para a cadeia e seus participantes. Este trabalho visa construir um índice composto de resiliência de uma cadeia de suprimentos sugerindo uma forma de ponderação e agregação que permitam identificar o nível de a preparação das cadeias de suprimentos em lidar com interrupções e impactos. O método adotado partiu do levantamento bibliográfico de dimensões com o objetivo de propor um framework e o levantamento de indicadores encontrados na literatura, que foram avaliados por meio de painel de especialistas. O painel selecionou quais indicadores melhor mensuram as dimensões e determinou os pesos para construção do índice composto. Os resultados apontam para um Índice Composto que concatenou doze dimensões e trinta e três indicadores, sendo mais abrangente que publicações anteriores. Os avanços são a contribuição para um campo de estudo com baixo número de publicações e a participação de especialistas na construção de um IC mais aderente as necessidades dos stakeholders. As limitações identificadas neste trabalho são o número de dimensões encontradas na pesquisa realizada na base de dados, que possivelmente não abarca toda a gama de possibilidades do conceito de resiliência.
Resilience is the ability of the supply chain to undergo impacts or ruptures and to efficiently reconfigure itself to meet the demands of the market. These chains are exposed to disturbances, which can be classified as high impact, caused by hurricanes and earthquakes, for example, or low impact such as transport problems, seasonality, lack of flexibility, productive instability or temporary unavailability of inputs interruptions in supplying the following participants and impacts their operations. The construction of mechanisms to evaluate resilience helps in the equation of these imbalances in the distribution of goods and products, minimizing negative effects on the chain and its participants. This paper aims to construct a composite index of resilience of a supply chain suggesting a form of weighting and aggregation that allows identifying the level of the preparation of the supply chains in dealing with interruptions and impacts. The method adopted was based on the bibliographic survey of dimensions with the objective of proposing a framework and the survey of indicators found in the literature, which were evaluated through a panel of experts. The panel selected which metrics best measure the dimensions and determined the weights for constructing the composite index. The results point to a composite index that concatenated twelve dimensions and thirty three indicators, being more comprehensive than previous publications. The advances are the contribution to a field of study with low number of publications and the participation of specialists in the construction of an IC more adherent to the needs of the stakeholders. The limitations identified in this work are the number of dimensions found in the database research, which may not cover the full range of possibilities of the concept of resilience.

This thesis is based on a case study approach investigating the impact of the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) strategies on community development in corporate supply chains that are located in developing countries. The cases chosen for the in-depth analysis are two notable Swedish multinationals, Ericsson, and IKEA. These cases were not fully comparable due to the imbalance in the available data. The study employed the Brundtland definition of sustainable development, under the broader theoretical framework of stakeholder theory. The impact of the two CSR strategies were measured against the eight variables of the Human Development Index (HDI), centred on the proposition that positive progress on these would be an enabler for accomplishing the objectives of the sustainable development goals (SDG’s). In the case of IKEA, using both semi-structured interviews and empirical data, it was premised that the partnership between IKEA and Rangsutra, as part of the CSR strategy titled, “People Planet Positive 2020” is delivering meaningful change in line with the suggested benchmark of the HDI/SDG. In the case of Ericsson, it was not possible to determine what change has been effected due to the lack of primary and secondary information, though they are helping to develop communities through certain pilot programs in association with other actors. It was further determined that there is a lack of source material available, and additional studies are required to evaluate the extent of empowerment that CSR programs in global Swedish enterprises generate in communities that are part of their supply network.

碩士
國立交通大學
工業工程與管理系所
104
From inputing raw materials into manufacturing to distributing them to customers, the procedure involves raw material suppliers, manufacturers, distributers, retailers and customers. We call the whole network connected from upstream to downstream supply chain. With the development of economiy and the progress of both transportation and communication techniques, competition among national companies intensifies rapidly. Under the stress of global competition, how to manage the supply chain well has been an required course for each company. However, while the supply chain became more and more complex, many companies still didn’t well recognized this fact and still used the traditional way to manage the supply chain, leading to the imbalance of supply chain. To resolve this problem, Cecere proposed the supply chain index and orbit charts to help managers analyze the development of their companies. In this research, I modify the supply chain index defined by Cecere to make it evalue the performance of supply chain management more precisely and apply this modified version and orbit charts proposed by Cecere to semiconductor industry in Taiwan. I hope this research could provide managers in Taiwan a new way to analyze the performance of their companies, helping them to manage their companies better.

碩士
國立成功大學
企業管理學系碩博士班
94
In the customer value-centric age nowadays, cost-down or differentiation could no longer ensure that enterprises keep growing in the environment with ever intensive competition. Under such circumstances, value innovation has been a new way for industries in Taiwan to focus on, based on the collaborative relationships developed in supply chain. However, there were few researches about value innovation in the previous literatures, not to mention about evaluating the collaboration degree in supply chain for customers’ value innovation. Therefore, this study aimed to develop an index to evaluate the degree of collaborative value innovation based on the traditional partnerships in supply chain discussed in the major researches of supply chain management. Through literature review, this study used the constructs as information sharing, decision synchronization, and incentive alignment to develop an index to explore how Taiwanese enterprises collaborated with supply chain partners for value innovation, and also discussed how the effects of the resulting degree of collaboration in supply chain impact business performance. This study took domestic enterprises as the survey population, and selects 1050 enterprises at random as research samples. A mail survey has been conducted to deliver the research questionnaires to those enterprises and a total of 326 valid samples were collected. The statistic methods used in this study included factor analysis, reliability analysis, ANOVA and regression analysis and the result showed that the index developed in this study has a good reliability and validity. Enterprises with high collaboration degree of value innovation in supply chain would significantly lead to better performance. The result also showed that the incentive alignment would be the major factor that explains the differences of the collaboration degree. Besides, enterprises with low collaboration degree of value innovation need to strengthen the incentive alignment process with partners in supply chain, while those with high collaboration degree of value innovation need to strengthen the decision synchronization level with their partners for better business performance.

碩士
東海大學
管理碩士在職專班
100
This research is to evaluate the performance of internal supply chain in W business group of U company, which is the single case study to adopt for this research, and to study the relationship between performance efficiency of technological development program and key performance index (abbreviated as KPI). Based on monthly data during the period of Jan'09 to Jun'11, material-reflow process among Procurement, Production and Sales Department in W business group of U company was taken to be input and output foundation. Next we adopt Network Data Envelopment Analysis (abbreviated as Network DEA) to analyze the technological performance efficiency, and adopt Pearson Correlation and Tobit regression model to analyze the relationship and impact between performance efficiency and KPI. The analysis shows that: (1) The average performance efficiency of internal supply chain in W business group of U company is 0.8637. There is roughly 14% of efficiency remained to be improved.(2) The performance efficiency of internal supply chain in W business group of U company is in the same trend with whole industrial environment. It means that internal performance efficiency will be impacted by outside environment factors. (3) Comparing to whole performance efficiency of internal supply chain, corresponded KPI - Cash Conversion Cycle has negative significant influence. Per decreasing one day of Cash Conversion Cycle, whole efficiency will increase 0.0051 accordingly. For performance efficiency of Procurement Department, corresponded KPI – goods received from vendor managed inventory sharing in whole month (abbreviated as VMI %) has positive significant influence. Per increasing 1% of VMI %, efficiency of Procurement Department will increase 0.0442 accordingly. For performance efficiency of Sales Department, corresponded KPI – revenue forecast accuracy has positive significant influence. Per increasing accuracy 1%, efficiency of Sales Department will increase 0.0093 accordingly. （4）Overall, no matter for performance efficiency of Procurement, Production, Sales Department or whole supply chain, KPI has significant influence.

AbstractWe compare the development of Sustainable (Green) Supply in three regions of the world, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the Middle East, six countries in Europe, and six countries in Latin America, which were selected based on their Logistics Performance Index over a 10-year period. We based our empirical analysis on UN SDGs concerned with clean energy, innovation, sustainable communities, and climate action (SDGs 7, 9, 11, and 13, respectively). Using a modified RAM-DEA model, our results showed high logistics performance but significant divergence in green logistics performance among GCC countries. Countries in Western Europe led in terms of inputs that result in green outputs. Strong contenders in green supply chains include the UAE, Oman, México, Panamá, and Ecuador.

The global oil market dwarfs other commodity markets. Its size and role in the energy and industrial value chains underscore its significant economic and geopolitical impacts. Thus, the consequences of oil price fluctuations extend far beyond the oil industry and can be viewed as a barometer of trends in the global economy. Several oil price benchmarks currently compete in the global market. The most popular ones, such as Brent or West Texas Intermediate (WTI), are backed by a sufficient supply of the underlying crude. They also meet the criteria for efficient trading, hedging and speculating — including having sufficient liquidity, developed futures markets, low transaction costs and strong institutional support.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.

Macroeconomic summary Economic activity has recovered faster than projected, and output is now expected to return to pre-pandemic levels earlier than anticipated. Economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022 have been revised upward, though significant downward bias remains. (Graph 1.1). Colombia’s economy returned to recovery in the third quarter after significant supply shocks and a third wave of COVID-19 in the second. Negative shocks affecting mobility and output were absent in the third quarter, and some indicators of economic activity suggest that the rate of recovery in demand, primarily in consumption, outpaced estimates from the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in the context of widely expansive monetary policy. Several factors are expected to continue to contribute to output recovery for the rest of the year and into 2022, including the persistence of favorable international financial conditions, an expected improvement in external demand, and an increase in terms of trade. Increasing vaccination rates, the expectation of higher levels of employment and the consequent effect on household income, improved investment performance (which has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels), and the expected stimulus from monetary policy that would continue to be expansive should also drive economic activity. As a result, output is estimated to have returned to its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter (previously expected in the fourth quarter). Growth is expected to decelerate in 2022, with excess productive capacity projected to close faster than anticipated in the previous report. Given the above, GDP growth projections have been revised upward for 2021 (9.8%, range between 8.4% and 11.2%) and 2022 (4.7%, range between 0.7% and 6.5%). If these estimates are confirmed, output would have grown by 2.3% on average between 2020 and 2022. This figure would be below long-term sustainable growth levels projected prior to the pandemic. The revised growth forecast for 2022 continues to account for a low basis of comparison from this year (reflecting the negative effects of COVID-19 and roadblocks in some parts of the country), and now supposes that estimated consumption levels for the end of 2021 will remain relatively stable in 2022. Investment and net exports are expected to recover at a faster pace than estimated in the previous report. Nevertheless, the downward risks to these estimates remain unusually significant, for several reasons. First, they do not suppose significant negative effects on the economy from possible new waves of COVID-19. Second, because private consumption, which has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could perform less favorably than estimated in this forecast should it reflect a temporary phenomenon related to suppressed demand as service sectors re-open (e.g. tourism) and private savings accumulated during the pandemic are spent. Third, disruptions to supply chains could be more persistent than contemplated in this report and could continue to affect production costs, with a negative impact on the economy. Finally, the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances could translate to increased vulnerability to changes in international financial conditions or in international and domestic economic agents’ perception of risk in the Colombian economy, representing a downward risk to growth. A higher-than-expected increase in inflation, the persistence of supply shocks, and reduced excess productive capacity have led to an increase in inflation projections above the target on the forecast horizon (Graph 1.2). Inflation increased above expectations to 4.51% in the third quarter, due in large part to the price behavior of foods and regulated items, and to a lesser extent to core inflation. Increased international prices and costs continue to generate upward pressure on various sub-baskets of the consumer price index (CPI), as has the partial reversion of some price relief measures implemented in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Macroeconomic summary The Colombian economy sustained numerous shocks in the second quarter, pri¬marily related to costs and supply. The majority of these shocks were unantic¬ipated or proved more persistent than expected, interrupting the recovery in economic activity observed at the beginning of the year and pushing overall inflation above the target. Core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) increased but remained low, in line with the technical staff’s expectations. A third wave of the pandemic, which became more severe and prolonged than the previous outbreak, began in early April. This had both a high cost in terms of human life and a negative impact on Colombia's economic recovery. Between May and mid-June roadblocks and other disruptions to public order had a sig¬nificant negative effect on economic activity and inflation. The combination and magnitude of these two shocks likely led to a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) compared to the first quarter. Roadblocks also led to a significant in¬crease in food prices. The accumulated effects of global disruptions to certain value chains and increased international freight transportation prices, which since the end of 2020 have restricted supply and increased costs, also affected Colombia’s economy. The factors described above, which primarily affected the consumer price index (CPI) for goods and foods, explain to a significant degree the technical staff’s forecast errors and the increase in overall inflation above the 3% target. By contrast, increases in core inflation and in prices for regulated items were in line with the technical staff’s expectations, and can be explained largely by the elimination of various price relief measures put in place last year. An increase in perceived sovereign risk and the upward pressures that this im¬plies on international financing costs and the exchange rate were further con¬siderations. Despite significant negative shocks, economic growth in the first half of the year (9.1%) is now expected to be significantly higher than projected in the April re¬port (7.1%), a sign of a more dynamic economy that could recover more quickly than previously forecast. Diverse economic activity figures have indicated high¬er-than-expected growth since the end of 2020. This suggests that the negative effects on output from recurring waves of COVID-19 have grown weaker and less long-lasting with subsequent outbreaks. Nevertheless, the third wave of the coro¬navirus, and to an even greater degree the previously mentioned roadblocks and disruptions to public order, likely led to a decline in GDP in the second quar¬ter compared to the first. Despite this, data from the monthly economic tracking indicator (ISE) for April and May surpassed expectations, and new sector-level measures of economic activity suggest that the negative impact of the pandemic on output continues to moderate, amid reduced restrictions on mobility and im¬provements in the pace of vaccination programs. Freight transportation registers (June) and unregulated energy demand (July), among other indicators, suggest a significant recovery following the roadblocks in May. Given the above, annual GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to have been around 17.3% (previously 15.8%), explained in large part by a low basis of comparison. The technical staff revised its growth projection for 2021 upward from 6% to 7.5%. This forecast, which comes with an unusually high degree of uncertain¬ty, assumes no additional disruptions to public order and that any new waves of COVID-19 will not have significant additional negative effects on economic activity. Recovery in international demand, price levels for some of Colombia’s export com¬modities, and remittances from workers abroad have all performed better than projected in the previous report. This dynamic is expected to continue to drive recovery in the national income over the rest of the year. Continued ample international liquidity, an acceleration in vacci¬nation programs, and low interest rates can also be ex¬pected to favor economic activity. Improved performance in the second quarter, which led to an upward growth revision for all components of spending, is expected to continue, with the economy returning to 2019 production levels at the end of 2021, earlier than estimated in the April report. This forecast continues to account for the short-term effects on aggregate demand of a tax reform package along the lines of what is currently being pro-posed by the national government. Given the above, the central forecast scenario in this report projects growth in 2021 of 7.5% and in 2022 of 3.1% (Graph 1.1). In this scenar¬io, economic activity would nonetheless remain below potential. The noted improvement in these projections comes with a high degree of uncertainty. Annual inflation increased more than expected in June (3.63%) as a result of changes in food prices, while growth in core inflation (1.87%) was similar to projections.

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias