Rozprawy doktorskie na temat „STEEP PROBABILITY”

This study intends to better control the final composition of steel by trying to have a better knowledge of elements including copper, nickel, molybdenum, manganese, tin and chromium in the scrap. This objective was approached by applying probability and statistical concepts such as normal distribution, multiple linear regression and least square and non-negative least square concepts. The study was performed on the raw materials’ information of Ovako Smedjebacken and Ovako Hofors, two steel production plants in Sweden. The information included but were not limited to the amount of the different scrap types used in the charge, total weight of the charge and the final composition of the produced steel.  First, the concept of normal distribution was used as to consider the variations of the alloying elements between the estimated and measured alloy contents. The data were then used to consider a model for distribution factor of the studied elements. Also, an estimation of the alloy contents in the scrap type given the final steel composition was carried out using the concept of probability and statistics. At the end, a comparison of the results from the different concepts was done.

This thesis presents a comprehensive investigation of the advanced analysis, reliability-based design and optimisation of steel support scaffolding systems. Support scaffolding systems are used to provide temporary support to timber formwork systems, reinforcement, concrete, workmen and equipment, during the construction of permanent structures such as buildings and bridges. Stick-type steel scaffolds with cuplok joints are the focus of the thesis. This thesis includes the collection and statistical analysis of shore load effects occurring as a result of construction dead and live loads. A comprehensive series of U-head joint subassembly tests, allowed the top rotational stiffness to be rationally quantified for advanced finite element modelling. Advanced finite element models are calibrated using data compiled in a previous investigation involving eighteen full-scale tests. This calibration exercise also provides statistical data for modelling error. Monte Carlo simulations using advanced analysis are performed to determine the statistical distributions of system strength for a range of geometric configurations of support scaffold systems. The research showed that system strength was governed mainly by jack extension at the top and bottom of the scaffolding system. By incorporating the load statistics and system strength statistics, the thesis determined the reliability of various steel scaffolding systems designed by the fundamental Load-Resistance-Factor-Design (LRFD) equation. The study further proposed a more efficient LRFD equation for steel scaffolding, based on an acceptable target reliability index.

This dissertation evaluated critical aspects of microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC) and generated valuable information for the understanding and management of this corrosion threat. The main outcomes include a better understanding of the preservation requirements for field samples to obtain accurate results; an innovative approach for MIC assessment that consists of the identification of total and active microbial communities; knowledge of the effect that environmental and operational conditions can have on microbial communities and MIC.

A general framework to design structural systems for a system-reliability goal is proposed. Component-based structural design proceeds on a member to member basis, insuring acceptable failure probabilities for every single structural member without explicitly assessing the overall system safety, whereas structural failure consequences are related to the whole system performance (the cost of a building or a bridge destroyed by an earthquake) rather than a single beam or column failure. Engineering intuition tells us that the system is safer than each individual component due to the likelihood of load redistribution and al- ternate load paths, however such conservatism cannot be guaranteed without an explicit system-level safety check. As a result, component-based structural designs can lead to both over-conservative components and a less-than-anticipated system reliability. System performance depends on component properties as well as the load-sharing network, which can possess a wide range of behaviors varying from a dense redundant system with scope for load redistribution after failure initiates, to a weakest-link type network that fails as soon as the first member exceeds its capacity. The load-sharing network is characterized by its overall system reliability and the system-reliability sensitivity, which quantifies the change in system safety due to component reliability modifications. A general algorithm is proposed to calculate modified component reliabilities using the sensitivity vector for the load-sharing network. The modifications represent an improvement on the structural properties of more critical components (more capacity, better ductility), and provide savings on less important members which do not play a significant role. The general methodology is applied to light steel-framed buildings under seismic loads. The building is modeled with non-linear spring elements representing its subsystems. The stochastic response of this model under seismic ground motions provides load-sharing, system reliability and sensitivity information, which are used to propose target diaphragm and shear wall reliability to meet a building reliability goal. Finally, diaphragm target reliability is used to propose modified component designs using stochastic simulations on geometric and materially non-linear finite-element models including every individual component.<br>Ph. D.

Les câbles d’acier sont utilisés comme renforts au sein des pneumatiques poids lourds, et servent notamment à supporter les efforts dus à la pression de gonflage et au poids du véhicule. Un câble est un ensemble de fils d’acier perlitique assemblés en hélices sur différentes couches. Il existe donc de nombreuses possibilités d’assemblage pour définir l’architecture d’un câble. Lors de leur sollicitation en service, les câbles sont soumis à des chargements cycliques à l’origine d’un endommagement en fatigue. Dans un contexte de réduction de la consommation et d’allègement des véhicules, la compréhension des mécanismes impliqués représente donc un enjeu majeur pour les manufacturiers de pneumatiques, en vue d’optimiser l’architecture des câbles vis-à-vis de la tenue en fatigue. Un essai de flexion cyclique représentatif de la sollicitation en service a été mis au point. Les éprouvettes testées sont des nappes composites constituées de câbles alignés au sein d’une matrice de gomme. Des essais interrompus à différents stades de l’endommagement suivis d’observations ex-situ (tomographie à rayon X, MEB) ont été réalisés. Un modèle de simulation par éléments finis de la nappe composite a été développé en vue d’étudier les interactions filgomme. La comparaison des observations aux simulations a permis de comprendre la cinétique de l’endommagement des renforts lors d’une sollicitation de flexion cyclique.L’étude de chacun des mécanismes susceptibles de contribuer à l’endommagement d’un câble a permis d’expliquer la meilleure tenue en fatigue des architectures pénétrées par la gomme. Un outil probabiliste de prédiction de la durée de vie des câbles basé sur la propagation des défauts en surface des fils a été développé<br>Steel cables are used as reinforcements in heavy truck tires, in particular to support the forces resulting from the tire pressure and the vehicle's weight. A cable is a set of pearlitic steel wires assembled in helical form on different layers. There are therefore many assembly possibilities to define the cable architecture. The cables are subjected to cyclic loadings during service, resulting in fatigue damage. In a context of reduced fuel consumption and lighter vehicles, understanding the mechanisms involved is thus a major challenge for tire manufacturers, in order to optimize the architecture of cables with respect to fatigue resistance. A cyclic bending test representative of mechanical in-service loading has been developed. The tested specimens are composite layers made of cables aligned within an elastomer matrix. Interrupted tests at different stages of damage followed by ex-situ observations (X-ray tomography, SEM) were performed. A finite element model of the composite layer has been developed in order to understand wire-rubber interactions. The comparison of the observations with the simulations made it possible to understand the kinetics of cable damage during cyclic bending loading.The study of each of the mechanisms likely to contribute to the cable damage has made it possible to explain the better fatigue resistance of the architectures penetrated by the rubber. A stochastic cable fatigue life model based on wire surface defect propagation has been developed

In this thesis, we discuss calibration estimation in the presence of nonresponse with a focus on the linear calibration estimator and the propensity calibration estimator, along with the use of different levels of auxiliary information, that is, sample and population levels. This is a fourpapers- based thesis, two of which discuss estimation in two steps. The two-step-type estimator here suggested is an improved compromise of both the linear calibration and the propensity calibration estimators mentioned above. Assuming that the functional form of the response model is known, it is estimated in the first step using calibration approach. In the second step the linear calibration estimator is constructed replacing the design weights by products of these with the inverse of the estimated response probabilities in the first step. The first step of estimation uses sample level of auxiliary information and we demonstrate that this results in more efficient estimated response probabilities than using population-level as earlier suggested. The variance expression for the two-step estimator is derived and an estimator of this is suggested. Two other papers address the use of auxiliary variables in estimation. One of which introduces the use of principal components theory in the calibration for nonresponse adjustment and suggests a selection of components using a theory of canonical correlation. Principal components are used as a mean to accounting the problem of estimation in presence of large sets of candidate auxiliary variables. In addition to the use of auxiliary variables, the last paper also discusses the use of explicit models representing the true response behavior. Usually simple models such as logistic, probit, linear or log-linear are used for this purpose. However, given a possible complexity on the structure of the true response probability, it may raise a question whether these simple models are effective. We use an example of telephone-based survey data collection process and demonstrate that the logistic model is generally not appropriate.

Turnouts are an important part of railway infrastructure for two reasons: infrastructure andmaintenance. For the infrastructure they provide the flexibility to allow the formulation and branchingof railway network and for maintenance they consume a large part of maintenance budget and have aprominent place in maintenance planning policy and activities. This is because as a “mechanical object”,a turnout often experiences malfunctions. The problem becomes even more complicated, since a turnoutis composed of many different parts and each of them fails for very different reasons (e.g. switch bladesvs crossing part). This is reflected in the different needs for maintenance activities, as railways areforced to pour in excessive amounts of resources to carry out emergency repairs, or to carry outunnecessary scheduled maintenance works in turnouts, which do not need to be inspected or repaired.Therefore, it is difficult to plan and organize maintenance activities in turnouts in an efficient manner.This raises the question of whether malfunctions in turnouts can be predicted and used as informationfor the maintenance planning process in order to optimize it and develop it into a more reliablepreventive maintenance planning.The aim of this analysis is to attempt to model the probability of various malfunctions in turnouts asa function of their main geometric and operational characteristics by using logistic regression modelsand then input these results into the maintenance planning process in order to optimize it. First, it wasimportant to objectify the railway track system and the turnout components, both in terms of parts andinterrelationships. Furthermore, the process and basic elements of railway maintenance planning weredefined, as well as arguments that motivate a turn towards preventive maintenance planningmethodologies. This was done through a comprehensive literature study.The basis of this research was case studies, which described the relationship between geometricaland operational characteristics of turnouts and their wear, as well as risk-based modelling methods inrailway maintenance planning. To create the analysis model, data from turnouts in eastern regionprovided by the Swedish Transport Administration were used, both from the point of view of describingthe underlying causes of turnout malfunctions and to formulate an object-oriented database suitable forusing in logistic regression models. The goal was a logit model that calculated the malfunctionprobability of a turnout, which could be used directly into a maintenance planning framework, whichranked maintenance activities in turnouts.The results obtained showed that although the model suffers from low correlation, differentrelationships between input variables and different functional errors were established. Furthermore, thepotential of these analytical models and modeling structures was shown to be able to developpreventive, predictive railway maintenance plans, but further analysis of the data structure is required,especially regarding data quality. Finally, further possible research areas are presented.<br>Spårväxlar är viktiga delar av järnvägens infrastruktur av två orsaker: infrastruktur och underhåll.För infrastrukturen ger de möjlighet till flexibla tillåter de formulering och grenning av järnvägsnät ochför underhållet konsumerar de en stor del av underhållsbudgeten och de har en framträdande plats iunderhållsplaneringspolitiken och aktiviteterna. Detta beror på att som ett ”maskinellt objekt”, harspårväxeln ofta fel. Problemet blir ännu mer komplicerat, eftersom en spårväxel består av många olikadelar och var och en av dem bryts ner av mycket olika skäl (t.ex. tunganordning vs korsningsdel). Dettaåterspeglas i olika behov av underhållsaktiviteter. Eftersom järnvägarna tvingas hålla alltför storamängder resurser för att utföra akuta reparationer eller för att utföra onödiga schemalagdaunderhållsarbeten i spårväxlar, som inte behöver inspekteras eller repareras. Därför är det svårt attplanera och organisera underhållsaktiviteter för spårväxlarna på ett effektivt sätt. Detta ställer fråganom funktionsfel i spårväxlar kan förutsägas och användas som information till  underhållsplaneringsprocessen för att optimera den och utveckla den till en pålitligare förebyggandeunderhållsplanering.Syftet med denna analys är att försöka modellera sannolikheten för olika funktionsfel i spårväxlarsom en funktion av deras huvudsakliga geometriska och operativa egenskaper med användning avlogistiska regressionsmodeller och sedan mata dessa resultat in i underhållsplaneringsprocessen för attoptimera den. För det första var det viktigt att objektifiera järnvägsspårsystemet ochspårväxlarkomponenterna, både vad gäller delar och inbördes förhållanden. Dessutom definieradesprocessen och grundelementen i järnvägsunderhållsplaneringen, samt att argument som motiverarförändring till förebyggande underhållsplaneringsmetoder. Detta gjordes genom en omfattandelitteraturstudie.Grunden i denna analys var fallstudier, som beskrev förhållandet mellan geometriska ochoperationella egenskaper hos spårväxlar och deras förslitning samt riskbaserade modelleringsmetoder ijärnvägsunderhållsplanering. För att skapa analysmodellen användes data från spårväxlar i östraregionen som tillhandahölls av Trafikverket, både ur synpunkten att beskriva de underliggandeorsakerna till spårväxlarsfel och för att formulera en objektorienterad databas lämplig för användning ilogistiska regressionsmodeller. Målet var en logitmodell som beräknade sannolikheten för fel i enspårväxel, som kunde användas direkt i en underhållsplaneringsram, som rangordnar lämpigaunderhållsaktiviteter i spårväxlar.Erhållna resultat visade att även om modellen lider av låg korrelation, konstaterades olika sambandmellan ingående variabler och olika funktionsfel. Vidare visades potentialen hos dessa analysmodelleroch modelleringsstrukturer för att kunna utveckla förebyggande, förutsägbarajärnvägsunderhållsplaner, men det krävs troligtvis ytterligare analys av datastrukturen, specielltangående datakvaliteten. Slutligen presenteras ytterligare möjliga forskningsområden.

Orientador: Itamar Ferreira<br>Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica<br>Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-11T17:15:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alves_CleverGama_M.pdf: 6160446 bytes, checksum: 5afa2cd3848388247de70ceee21a3cf8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008<br>Resumo: O presente trabalho descreve um procedimento de aprovação de um braço de controle de suspensão automotiva sujeito a fadiga de alto ciclo, ao mesmo tempo em que propõe uma sistemática alternativa de validação baseada em conceitos e teorias estatísticas de confiabilidade. Nesse aspecto, a pesquisa não só avalia o procedimento seguido pelo fabricante, como também executa comparações gráfico-analíticas de distribuições probabilísticas (normal, lognormal e Weibull) a fim de caracterizar a massa de dados completos e suspensos obtidos em ensaios acelerados de bancada. Um espaço amostral constituído por quatro observações completas da configuração final da peça e oito da inicial, complementado por doze dados suspensos, foi usado para determinar os parâmetros dos modelos. Essa análise levou à escolha do modelo de Weibull bi-paramétrico para o tempo até a falha para as duas configurações em foco. A estimação final dos parâmetros foi feita pelo método da máxima verossimilhança, o qual superou um método alternativo específico para Weibull na comparação com a distribuição referencial de categoria. Dessa forma, calculou-se o ganho efetivo em confiabilidade conseguido com o esforço adicional de desenvolvimento da peça. O teste de hipóteses de Kruskal-Wallis permitiu concluir que as duas configurações realmente possuem performances de durabilidade diferentes. É notável o ganho em confiabilidade obtido por meio das mudanças que levaram à configuração final: em um universo de um milhão de peças, o número de falhas esperadas aos 30.000 ciclos caiu de 96.384 para 5 partes por milhão<br>Abstract: This dissertation aims at describing a procedure for approval of a suspension control arm subjected to high-cycle fatigue and, simultaneously, at proposing a validation alternative method based on reliability concepts and statistical theories. In that manner, the research provides not only an assessment of the procedure followed by the manufacturer, but also analytical and graphical comparisons of probabilistic distributions (normal, lognormal, Weibull) in order to characterize the set of complete and suspended data from bench accelerated tests. A sample space comprised by four complete final configuration observations and eight complete primary configuration ones, in addition to twelve suspended figures, was the basis for determining the model parameters. Such an analysis led to choose the bi-parametric Weibull for both focused configurations¿ time to failure. The ultimate estimation of the parameters was performed through the maximum likelihood method, which beat a specific alternative method for Weibull when compared with the referential category distribution. Thus, the effective gain in reliability resulting from the product development additional effort was calculated. The Kruskal-Wallis hypothesis testing guided the conclusion that the two configurations actually have different durability performances. It is impressive the gain in reliability brought by the changes that led towards the final configuration: taking an amount of one million parts into consideration, the expected number of failures at 30,000 cycles dropped from 96,384 to 5 parts per million<br>Mestrado<br>Materiais e Processos de Fabricação<br>Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Commercial fuels are mixtures with large numbers of components. Continuous thermodynamics is a technique for modelling fuel mixtures using a probability density function rather than dealing with each discreet component. The mean and standard deviation of the distribution are then used to model the chemical reactions of the mixture. This thesis develops the necessary theory to apply the technique of continuous thermodynamics to the oxidation reactions of hydrocarbon fuels. The theory is applied to three simplified models of hydrocarbon oxidation: a global one-step reaction, a two-step reaction with CO as the intermediate product, and the four-step reaction of Müller et al. (1992), which contains a high- and a low-temperature branch. These are all greatly simplified models of the complex reaction kinetics of hydrocarbons, and in this thesis they are applied specifically to n-paraffin hydrocarbons in the range from n-heptane to n-hexadecane. The model is tested numerically using a simple constant pressure homogeneous ignition problem using Cantera and compared to simplified and detailed mechanisms for n-heptane. The continuous thermodynamics models are able not only to predict ignition delay times and the development of temperature and species concentrations with time, but also changes in the mixture composition as reaction proceeds as represented by the mean and standard deviation of the distribution function. Continuous thermodynamics is therefore shown to be a useful tool for reactions of multicomponent mixtures, and an alternative to the "surrogate fuel" approach often used at present.

L'objectif de ces travaux de thèse est d'étudier l'influence de la microstructure et de défauts géométriques sur le comportement en fatigue à grand nombre de cycles (FGNC) d'un acier inoxydable austénitique 316L. La méthodologie proposée s'appuie sur des simulations par éléments finis (EF) d'agrégats polycristallins qui permettent de décrire les champs mécaniques à l'échelle des mécanismes impliqués dans les processus d'amorçage de fissures de fatigue.Une étude numérique préliminaire, s'appuyant sur des données expérimentales issues de la littérature, est conduite sur un cuivre électrolytique à l'aide de simulations numériques d'agrégats polycristallins en 2D. L'effet du trajet de chargement et de défauts artificiels de taille proche ou légèrement supérieure à celle de la microstructure sur les réponses mécaniques mésoscopiques sont analysés. Les capacités de prédiction de quelques critères de fatigue, s'appuyant sur des quantités mécaniques mésoscopiques, sont évaluées. Il est mis en évidence que les limites de fatigue macroscopiques prédites par un critère de fatigue probabiliste sont en accord avec les tendances expérimentales observées en fatigue multiaxiale et en présence de défauts.Une campagne expérimentale a été menée sur un acier austénitique 316L. Des essais de fatigue oligocyclique sont conduits afin de caractériser le comportement élasto-plastique du matériau. Des essais de FGNC, utilisant des éprouvettes avec et sans défaut de surface (défaut artificiel hémisphérique) ont été effectués pour estimer les limites de fatigue dans différentes conditions de sollicitation (traction, torsion, traction et torsion combinée, traction biaxiale) et pour plusieurs rayons de défaut. Dans le but de compléter la caractérisation du matériau, la microstructure est étudiée à l'aide d'analyses EBSD et la texture cristallographique est mesurée par diffraction des rayons X. Ces résultats expérimentaux sont utilisés pour reproduire, avec des simulations EF, les essais de FGNC sur des microstructures 2D et 3D représentatives de l'acier austénitique. L'hétérogénéité de quantités mécaniques mésoscopiques pertinentes en fatigue est discutée avec une attention particulière sur l'effet des défauts. L'approche probabiliste est appliquée aux résultats des modèles EF pour quantifier l'effet de la taille du défaut, pour différents trajets de chargement. La pertinence, vis-à-vis des observations expérimentales, des distributions de la limite de fatigue prédites est évaluée<br>The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of both the microstructure and defects on the high cycle fatigue (HCF) behaviour of a 316L austenitic stainless steel thanks to finite element (FE) simulations of polycrystalline aggregates.%The scatter encountered in the HCF behavior of metallic materials is often explained by the anisotropic elasto-plastic behavior of individual grains leading to a highly heterogeneous distribution of plastic slip.Since fatigue crack initiation is a local phenomenon, intimately related to the plastic activity at the crystal scale, it seems relevant to rely on this kind of modeling to evaluate the mechanical quantities.A preliminary numerical study, based on experimental data drawn from the litterature, was conducted on an electrolytic copper using simulations of 2D polycrystalline aggregates. The effect of the loading path and small artificial defects on the mesoscopic mechanical responses have been analyzed separately. Moreover, the predictive capabilities of some fatigue criteria, relying on the mesoscopic mechanical responses, has been evaluated. It was shown that the macroscopic fatigue limits predicted by a probabilistic fatigue criterion are in accordance with the experimental trends observed in multiaxial fatigue or in the presence of small defects.An experimental campaign is undertaken on an austenitic steel 316L. Low cycle fatigue tests are conducted in order to characterize the elasto-plastic behavior of the material. Load-controled HCF tests, using both smooth specimens and specimens containing an artificial hemispherical surface defect, are carried out to estimate the fatigue limits under various loading conditions (tension, torsion, combined tension and torsion, biaxial tension) and several defect radii. To complete the characterization of the material, the microstructure is studied thanks to EBSD analyzes and the cristallographic texture is measured by X-ray diffraction. These experimental data are used to reproduce, with FE simulations, the HCF tests on 2D and 3D microstructures representative of the austenitic steel. The heterogeneity of the mesoscopic mechanical quantities relevant in fatigue are discussed in relation to the modeling. The results from the FE models are then used along with the probabilistic mesomechanics approach to quantify the defect size effect for several loading paths. The relevance, with respect to the experimental observations, of the predicted fatigue strength distributions is assessed

La modélisation de la fissuration du béton armé à l'aide de la méthode des éléments finis nécessite de prendre en compte, outre l'endommagement du béton, trois phénomènes : la spécificité de la liaison acier-béton, l’autocontrainte due au retrait, et l'effet d'échelle probabiliste dû à l'hétérogénéité du béton. Cette recherche s'appuie sur une campagne expérimentale pour obtenir le comportement de la liaison et les caractéristiques des fissures sur des éléments de structures. La technique de corrélation d'images numériques a été utilisée pour observer l'espacement et l'ouverture des fissures.La liaison acier-béton est considérée dans la modélisation à l'aide d'éléments d'interface élasto-plastiques basés sur les résultats expérimentaux des tests de pull-out. Les effets du retrait sont pris en compte via un cadre poro-mécanique. Enfin, l'effet d'échelle probabiliste est intégré dans la modélisation via une méthode de champs aléatoires, puis de maillon faible. La modélisation est appliquée à l'élément de structure en béton armé étudié en laboratoire ce qui permet de quantifier l'importance relative de la liaison acier-béton, des contraintes induites par le retrait empêché, et de l'hétérogénéité du matériau<br>The modelling of cracking of reinforced concrete using the finite element method requires taking into account, in addition to the concrete damage, three phenomena: the specificity of the steel-concrete bond, the self-stress due to shrinkage, and the probabilistic scale effect due to the heterogeneity of concrete. This research is based on an experimental campaign to obtain the behaviour of the bond and the characteristics of the cracks on structural elements. The technique of digital image correlation was used to observe the spacing and opening of the cracks.The steel-concrete bond is considered in modelling using elastoplastic interface elements based on the experimental results of the pull-out tests. The effects of shrinkage are taken into account via a poro-mechanical framework. Finally, the probabilistic scale effect is integrated into the modelling via a random field method and then a weakest link one. Modelling is applied to the reinforced concrete structural element studied in the laboratory, which makes it possible to quantify the relative importance on cracking of the steel-concrete bond, the stresses induced by shrinkage, and the tensile strength heterogeneity of the material

Ultra Wideband (UWB) communication has recently drawn considerable attention from academia and industry. This is mainly owing to the ultra high speeds and cognitive features it could offer. The employability of UWB in numerous areas including but not limited to Wireless Personal Area Networks, WPAN's, Body Area Networks, BAN's, radar and medical imaging etc. has opened several avenues of research and development. However, still there is a disagreement on the standardization of UWB. Two contesting radios for UWB are Multiband Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MB-OFDM) and DS-UWB (Direct Sequence Ultra Wideband). As nearly all of the reported research on UWB hasbeen about a very narrow/specific area of the communication system, this thesis looks at the end-to-end performance of an MB-OFDM approach. The overall aim of this project has been to first focus on three different aspects i.e. interference, antenna and propagation aspects of an MB-OFDM system individually and then present a holistic or an end-to-end system analysis finally. In the first phase of the project the author investigated the performance of MB-OFDM system under the effect of his proposed generic or technology non-specific interference. Avoiding the conventional Gaussian approximation, the author has employed an advanced stochastic method. A total of two approaches have been presented in this phase of the project. The first approach is an indirect one which involves the Moment Generating Functions (MGF's) of the Signal-to-Interference-plus-Noise-Ratio (SINR) and the Probability Density Function (pdf) of the SINR to calculate the Average Probabilities of Error of an MB-OFDM system under the influence of proposed generic interference. This approach assumed a specific two-dimensional Poisson spatial/geometric placement of interferers around the victim MB-OFDM receiver. The second approach is a direct approach and extends the first approach by employing a wider class of generic interference. In the second phase of the work the author designed, simulated, prototyped and tested novel compact monopole planar antennas for UWB application. In this phase of the research, compact antennas for the UWB application are presented. These designs employ low-loss Rogers duroid substrates and are fed by Copla-nar Waveguides. The antennas have a proposed feed-line to the main radiating element transition region. This transition region is formed by a special step-generating function-set called the "Inverse Parabolic Step Sequence" or IPSS. These IPSS-based antennas are simulated, prototyped and then tested in the ane-choic chamber. An empirical approach, aimed to further miniaturize IPSS-based antennas, was also derived in this phase of the project. The empirical approach has been applied to derive the design of a further miniaturized antenna. More-over, an electrical miniaturization limit has been concluded for the IPSS-based antennas. The third phase of the project has investigated the effect of the indoor furnishing on the distribution of the elevation Angle-of-Arrival (AOA) of the rays at the receiver. Previously, constant distributions for the AOA of the rays in the elevation direction had been reported. This phase of the research has proposed that the AOA distribution is not fixed. It is established by the author that the indoor elevation AOA distributions depend on the discrete levels of furnishing. A joint time-angle-furnishing channel model is presented in this research phase. In addition, this phase of the thesis proposes two vectorial or any direction AOA distributions for the UWB indoor environments. Finally, the last phase of this thesis is presented. As stated earlier, the overall aim of the project has been to look at three individual aspects of an MB-OFDM system, initially, and then look at the holistic system, finally. Therefore, this final phase of the research presents an end-to-end MB-OFDM system analysis. The interference analysis of the first phase of the project is revisited to re-calculate the probability of bit error with realistic/measured path loss exponents which have been reported in the existing literature. In this method, Gaussian Quadrature Rule based approximations are computed for the average probability of bit error. Last but not the least, an end-to-end or comprehensive system equation/impulse response is presented. The proposed system equation covers more aspects of an indoor UWB system than reported in the existing literature.

La conception des ouvrages en Génie Civil se fait habituellement de manière semi-probabiliste en employant des valeurs caractéristiques auxquelles sont associées des facteurs partiels de sécurité. Toutefois, de telles approches ne permettent pas de garantir la robustesse de l’ouvrage conçu vis-à-vis des sources d’incertitudes susceptibles d’affecter ses performances au cours de sa réalisation et de son fonctionnement. Nous proposons dans ce mémoire une méthodologie d’aide à la décision pour la conception robuste des ouvrages qui est appliquée à une structure métallique reposant sur des fondations superficielles. La conception de cet ouvrage est conduite en intégrant le phénomène d’interaction sol-structure qui implique que les choix de conception faits sur la fondation influencent ceux faits sur la structure supportée (et réciproquement). La démarche de conception proposée fait appel à des outils d’optimisation multi-objectif et d’aide à la décision afin d’obtenir une solution qui offre le meilleur compromis entre l’ensemble des préférences énoncées par le décideur sur chaque critère de conception. Des analyses de sensibilité sont menées parallèlement dans le but d’identifier et de quantifier les sources d’incertitude les plus influentes sur la variabilité des performances de l’ouvrage. Ces sources d’incertitude représentées sous une forme probabiliste sont intégrées dans la procédure de conception et propagées à l’aide d’une méthode d’échantillonnage par hypercube latin. Une partie du mémoire est consacrée à l’analyse des effets de l’incertitude relative à la modélisation des paramètres géotechniques sur la réponse de l’ouvrage et sur la démarche plus globale d’optimisation<br>Design in Civil Engineering is usually performed in a semi-probabilistic way using characteristic values which are associated with partial safety factors. However, this approach doesn’t guarantee the structure robustness with regard to uncertainties that could affect its performance during construction and operation. In this thesis, we propose a decision aid methodology for robust design of steel frame on spread foundations. Soil-structure interaction is taken into consideration in the design process implying that the design choices on foundations influence the design choices on steel frame (and vice versa). The proposed design approach uses multi-objective optimization and decision aid methods in order to obtain the best solution with respect to the decision-maker’s preferences on each criterion. Furthermore, sensitivity analyzes are performed in order to identify and quantify the most influencing uncertainty sources on variability of the structure performances. These uncertainties are modeled as random variables and propagated in the design process using latin hypercube sampling. A part of this dissertation is devoted to the effects of uncertainties involved in soil properties on the structure responses and on the design global approach

The existing guidance systems for panoramic areas facing various traversal problem during the path selection,whenever any path select by the Ant it is select only by seeing the lowest path cost. As we know very well that in particular panoramic spot,there are two type of roads, plane roads and other are steep roads,these steep roads some time are not suitable for children ortheageandalsoconsumehugeenergybytouristvehicle. Theexistingguidancesystemsfor panoramic areas facing various traversal problem during the path selection. Traditional path planning algorithm focus on shortest path but they did not focus on tourist demand,it means formermethodologybasedonbeststrategyinsteadofoptimal. Ourproposedmethodologyfor path selection of tourist vehicle based on two parameter: link steep probability which is based on steep angle and steep cost of link. If Ant want to go from node i to node j then first of all it will compare all value of steep probability and steep cost,the value which is very less as compare to other values then this min value link will be selected by ant and Pheromone rate on this link will be more as compare to others links. This modification in previous methodology will surely increase the performance of our algorithm ,hence this algorithm has given better optimal route for tourist with less time, cost and energy consumption as well as tourist requirements.

A model for estimating the time-dependent reliability of steel beams under real fire conditions has been developed. It gives a more rational basis than time of failure modelling does for design. From risk modelling, some small resistance time from the probabilistic distribution times of failure can be deduced, which gives an acceptably small risk of failure. Time of failure modelling by itself can only give the mean time failure which could lead to excessive risk if the variability of time of failure is large. The model comprises submodels for fire severity, heat transfer, mechanical properties, loads, structural analysis and reliability. Simple submodels have been adopted commensurate with the level of accuracy of other models in fire safety engineering. The submodel for real fire severity is Lie's. Heat transfer submodels have been adopted for three and four sided exposure and have been taken from work by the European Regional Organisation for Steel Construction and the French Technical Centre for Steel Construction. Three sided arises when the beam supports a concrete slab. The mechanical properties submodel was derived from an empirical fit to available test data. It gave better results than the current model in AS4100. It is appropriate for the model but is too complex for replacing the model in AS4100. The structural model four sided exposure was developed from simple plastic theory. For three sided exposure, discrete element analysis was adopted. The load submodels were lognormal for dead load and Weibull arbitrary point in time values for live load. The Monte Carlo method was adopted for the reliability submodel. The overall model was used to obtain the following sensitivities. An increase of lOkg.m-2 in fire load density can increase the risk of failure by 40%. In relation to the sensitivity of risk to ventilation, a reduction of the opening factor from 0.12 to 0.04 m0.5 increases the risk of failure approximately 200 times. Doubling the insulation thickness reduces the risk of failure by a factor ten. Increasing the live load has less effect on the risk of failure than increasing the dead load. If the load present predominantly live load, there is much less risk of failure than if the load is predominantly live load. Four sided exposure has ten times the risk of failure compared with three sided exposure. Accepting larger proof strains reduces the risk of failure; for example, increasing proof strain from 0.2% to 1% reduces the risk of failure by 50%.

碩士<br>國立臺灣科技大學<br>營建工程系<br>101<br>Steel bridge structures are the fundamental of transport infrastructure. In nature, steel bridge structures’ performance will decrease over time by many reasons. Bridge maintenance is essential requirement. The life extension of the bridges not only makes the large economic profit but also relieves the financial issue on asset management. Bridge maintenance is carried out to extend the life of the structure and to ensure that it functions as designed. One of challenges in bridge maintenance comes from uncertainty factors which make it difficult to get an accurate prediction of bridge behavior and performance of bridge structures. Therefore, the time-variant reliability model in bridge maintenance is needed. There are several techniques to penetrate the time-variant reliability such as iterative procedure; sampling techniques or Monte Carlo Simulation… This research presents another method called probability density evolution method (PDEM) to solve this issue. PDEM has been researched and developed recently, started with the idea of physical stochastic systems. In general, time-variant reliability model could be treated as a stochastic system. From application of PDEM in generic stochastic system, the probability density function of time-variant reliability in reliability model will be captured. A case study is considered to apply PDEM. Lastly, to fulfillment the problem Stochastic Optimization (PDEM combines with Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm) with uncertainties is used to optimize the maintenance cost by using the result from time-variant reliability as a constraint.

As alternative to formulation provided in Eurocode 3 for analyses on single members, this thesis shows the development of a probabilistic model to estimate critical temperature to take in account the parameters that influence the behaviour of framed steel structure in fire. A new simplified formulation has been developed to estimate the critical temperature of a steel member in the context of FSE. In other words the simplified model allows to use a general fire curve instead of the ISO standard fire also for single members, because takes into account the nonlinearities of the structure and the indirect actions generally considered with structural analysis through nonlinear FEM models. To develop the probabilistic regression model, results of FEM simulations were used and thirteen parameters were identified to describe the behaviour of the structure in fire, taking in account fluid dynamic aspects. Simple Monte Carlo simulation is not suitable to develop the regression model due to the large variability of the parameters affecting the problem. Therefore, the probabilistic study was conducted using two techniques in order to reduce the size of the sample and to preserve the quality of the results. With the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) we generated a small number of samples with high meaningfulness and with the Simulated Annealing optimization method we achieved diagonal correlation matrix. The analyses were handled through a in house developed software that, starting from sampling data (i) automatically generates the input files for fluid dynamic, thermal and thermomechanical analysis, (ii) performs all analyses, (iii) stores the results in a database and (iv) generates the report file to analyse the results. The probabilistic model, created using the Bayesian updating, has been used to estimate collapse temperature of beams and columns, separately. The significant parameters have been defined through a step deletion process in order to simplify the formulation. Therefore the proposed formulations for the critical temperature take in account the effective stiffness of the structure, the non-linear structural behaviour and indirect actions due to thermal expansions and allow to exploit the resistance reserves due to the internal forces redistribution in steel framed structures. Moreover define the critical temperature as a random variable, to be easily used in reliability analysis and to develop fragility curves.

The seismic response of steel monopole wind turbine towers is investigated and their risk is assessed in the Canadian seismic environment. This topic is of concern as wind turbines are increasingly being installed in seismic areas and design codes do not clearly address this aspect of design. An implicit finite element model of a 1.65MW tower was developed and validated. Incremental dynamic analysis was carried out to evaluate its behaviour under seismic excitation, to define several damage states, and to develop a framework for determining its probability of damage. This framework was implemented in two Canadian locations, where the risk was found to be low for the seismic hazard level prescribed for buildings. However, the design of wind turbine towers is subject to change, as is the design spectrum. Thus, a methodology is outlined to thoroughly investigate the probability of reaching predetermined damage states under seismic loading for future considerations.

<p></p><p>Visual inspection is the primary means of ensuring the safety and functionality of in-service bridges in the United States and owners spend considerable resources on such inspections. While the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and many state departments of transportation have guidelines related to inspector qualification, training, and certification, an inspector’s actual capability to identify defects in the field under these guidelines is unknown. This research aimed to address the knowledge gap surrounding visual inspection performance for steel bridges in order to support future advances in inspection and design procedures. Focusing primarily on fatigue crack detection, this research also considered the ability of inspectors to accurately and consistently estimate section loss in steel bridge members. </p> <p> </p> <p>Inspection performance was evaluated through a series of simulated bridge inspections performed in representative in-situ conditions. First, this research describes the results from 30 hands-on, visual inspections performed on full size bridge specimens with known fatigue cracks. Probability of Detection (POD) curves were fit to the inspection results and the 50% and 90% detection rate crack lengths were determined. The variability in performance was large, and only a small amount of the variance could be explained by individual characteristics or environmental conditions. Based on the results, recommendations for improved training methods, inspection procedures, and equipment were developed. Above all, establishment of a performance based qualification system for bridge inspectors is recommended to confirm that a satisfactory level of performance is consistently achieved in the field. </p> <p> </p> <p>Long term, managing agencies may eschew traditional hands-on bridge inspection methods in favor of emerging technologies imagined to provide improved results and fewer logistical challenges. This research investigated the potential for unmanned aircraft system (UAS) assistance during visual inspection of steel bridges. Using the same specimens as in the hands-on inspections, four UAS-assisted field inspections and 19 UAS-assisted desk inspections were performed. A direct comparison was made between performance in the hands-on and UAS-assisted inspections, as well as between performance in the two types of UAS-assisted inspections. Again, significant variability was present in the results suggesting that human factors continue to have a substantial influence on inspection performance, regardless of inspection method. </p> <p> </p> <p>Finally, to expand the findings from the crack detection inspections, the lower chord from a deck truss was used to investigate variability in the inspection of severely corroded steel tension members. Five inspectors performed a hands-on inspection of the specimen and four engineers calculated the load rating for the same specimen. Significant variability was observed in how inspectors recorded thickness measurements during the inspections and engineers interpreted the inspection reports and applied the code requirements. </p><br><p></p>