Rozprawy doktorskie na temat „Scenario uncertainty”
Utwórz poprawne odniesienie w stylach APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard i wielu innych
Sprawdź 50 najlepszych rozpraw doktorskich naukowych na temat „Scenario uncertainty”.
Przycisk „Dodaj do bibliografii” jest dostępny obok każdej pracy w bibliografii. Użyj go – a my automatycznie utworzymy odniesienie bibliograficzne do wybranej pracy w stylu cytowania, którego potrzebujesz: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver itp.
Możesz również pobrać pełny tekst publikacji naukowej w formacie „.pdf” i przeczytać adnotację do pracy online, jeśli odpowiednie parametry są dostępne w metadanych.
Przeglądaj rozprawy doktorskie z różnych dziedzin i twórz odpowiednie bibliografie.
Mott, Lacroix Kelly, Ashley Hullinger, Mark Apel, William Brandau i Sharon B. Megdal. "Using Scenario Planning to Prepare for Uncertainty in Rural Watersheds". College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/593579.
Pełny tekst źródłaPlanning for an uncertain future presents many challenges. Thinking systematically and creatively about what is in store through a process called scenario planning can help illuminate options for action and improve decision-making. This guide focuses on a process for developing scenarios to help communities and watershed groups explore what might happen in the years to come, make more informed decisions today, and build a watershed management process. The systematic approach to scenario planning described here is based on the lessons learned through a yearlong scenario planning process in the Upper Gila Watershed in southeastern Arizona and Water Resource Research Center’s (WRRC) research on scenario planning.
Cooksey, Kenneth Daniel. "A portfolio approach to design in the presence of scenario-based uncertainty". Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49036.
Pełny tekst źródłaTshimanga, Raphael Muamba. "Hydrological uncertainty analysis and scenario-based streamflow modelling for the Congo River Basin". Thesis, Rhodes University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006158.
Pełny tekst źródłaRobinson, Amanda Jane. "Uncertainty in hydrological scenario modelling : an investigation using the Mekong River Basin, SE Asia". Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2018. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10046108/.
Pełny tekst źródłaMahadevan, Srisudha. "Network Selection Algorithm for Satisfying Multiple User Constraints Under Uncertainty in a Heterogeneous Wireless Scenario". University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1302550606.
Pełny tekst źródłaCalfa, Bruno Abreu. "Data Analytics Methods for Enterprise-wide Optimization Under Uncertainty". Research Showcase @ CMU, 2015. http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/575.
Pełny tekst źródłaHollmann, Dominik. "Supply chain network design under uncertainty and risk". Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6407.
Pełny tekst źródłaPersson, Klas. "Quantifying pollutant spreading and the risk of water pollution in hydrological catchments : A solute travel time-based scenario approach". Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-63465.
Pełny tekst źródłaValente, Christian. "Design and architecture of a stochastic programming modelling system". Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6249.
Pełny tekst źródłaMinton, Mark A. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a fire-induced accident scenario involving binary variables and mechanistic codes". Thesis, Cambridge Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/4939.
Pełny tekst źródłaApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited
In response to the transition by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection rulemaking standard, Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods have been improved, particularly in the areas of advanced fire modeling and computational methods. In order to gain a more meaningful insight into the methods currently in practice, it was decided that a scenario incorporating the various elements of uncertainty specific to a fire PRA would be analyzed. Fire induced Main Control Room (MCR) abandonment scenarios are a significant contributor to the total Core Damage Frequency (CDF) estimate of many operating nuclear power plants. This report details the simultaneous application of state-of-the-art model and parameter uncertainty techniques to develop a defensible distribution of the probability of a forced MCR abandonment caused by a fire within a MCR benchboard. This report details the simultaneous application of state-of-the-art model and parameter uncertainty techniques to develop a defensible distribution of the probability of a forced MCR abandonment caused by a fire within a MCR.
Minton, Mark A. (Mark Aaron). "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a fire-induced accident scenario involving binary variables and mechanistic codes". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76589.
Pełny tekst źródła"September 2010." Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 72-74).
In response to the transition by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection rulemaking standard, Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods have been improved, particularly in the areas of advanced fire modeling and computational methods. As the methods for the quantification of fire risk are improved, the methods for the quantification of the uncertainties must also be improved. In order to gain a more meaningful insight into the methods currently in practice, it was decided that a scenario incorporating the various elements of uncertainty specific to a fire PRA would be analyzed. The NRC has validated and verified five fire models to simulate the effects of fire growth and propagation in nuclear power plants. Although these models cover a wide range of sophistication, epistemic uncertainties resulting from the assumptions and approximations used within the model are always present. The uncertainty of a model prediction is not only dependent on the uncertainties of the model itself, but also on how the uncertainties in input parameters are propagated throughout the model. Inputs to deterministic fire models are often not precise values, but instead follow statistical distributions. The fundamental motivation for assessing model and parameter uncertainties is to combine the results in an effort to calculate a cumulative probability of exceeding a given threshold. This threshold can be for equipment damage, time to alarm, habitability of spaces, etc. Fire growth and propagation is not the only source of uncertainty present in a fire-induced accident scenario. Statistical models are necessary to develop estimates of fire ignition frequency and the probability that a fire will be suppressed. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is performed to determine the probability that operators will correctly perform manual actions even with the additional complications of a fire present. Fire induced Main Control Room (MCR) abandonment scenarios are a significant contributor to the total Core Damage Frequency (CDF) estimate of many operating nuclear power plants. Many of the resources spent on fire PRA are devoted to quantification of the probability that a fire will force operators to abandon the MCR and take actions from a remote location. However, many current PRA practitioners feel that effect of MCR fires have been overstated. This report details the simultaneous application of state-of-the-art model and parameter uncertainty techniques to develop a defensible distribution of the probability of a forced MCR abandonment caused by a fire within a MCR benchboard. These results are combined with the other elements of uncertainty present in a fire-induced MCR abandonment scenario to develop a CDF distribution that takes into account the interdependencies between the factors. In addition, the input factors having the strongest influence on the final results are identified so that operators, regulators, and researchers can focus their efforts to mitigate the effects of this class of fire-induced accident scenario.
by Mark A. Minton.
Nucl.E.and S.M.
Stanford, Joseph S. M. (Joseph Marsh) Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Possible futures for fully automated vehicles : using scenario planning and system dynamics to grapple with uncertainty". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/105319.
Pełny tekst źródłaCataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 146-148).
It is widely expected that fully automated vehicles (also commonly referred to as "driverless" or "self-driving" cars) will significantly change transportation systems in the United States and around the world. By reducing or eliminating many of the costs and disincentives of travel by automobile, these vehicles may have the potential to radically alter many of the inherent dynamics that have governed transportation systems since the advent of the automobile. To date, however, there has been very little structured analysis of these potential changes. Most of the existing literature addresses the technical challenges facing vehicle automation technology or considers immediate effects on the transportation system, usually analyzing single effects in isolation. Very little attention appears to have been paid to multiple simultaneous interactions that may occur across the transportation system and potential feedback effects that may arise among elements of the system. This thesis examines how the transportation system might react to the widespread introduction of fully automated vehicles (AVs), specifically considering how these reactions will affect total usage of automobiles, as measured by vehicle miles traveled (VMT). For the purpose of this thesis, the system boundary is broadly drawn-potential system responses are considered within the transportation system itself (consisting of existing users, vehicles, and infrastructure) and the "macro-system" (which includes broader economic, regulatory, social, and political dimensions). To address the wide range of uncertainties involved, scenario-planning techniques are used to develop and explore three scenarios that span a range of important variables. Within each scenario, system dynamics methodology is used to explore potential system reactions to the scenario assumptions and to consider the ultimate implications for VMT. The main insight from this analysis is that unstable responses (rapid movement to the extremes) appear more likely than steady transitions to "moderate" states. When the scenarios assume behavior can change substantially, the structure of the system suggests either that strong and growing forces will cause automobiles to become even more dominant over other modes than they are today (and VMT will rise dramatically), or public transit will become increasingly more appealing and assume a growing role (and VMT will drop substantially). The challenge of predicting the underlying behavioral changes is substantial: Who can say with any certainty how people will use a technology that provides point-to-point, self-directed, self-scheduled travel, with no requirement for attention or effort by a human occupant, potentially at higher speeds, in greater comfort, and with safer operation than today's automobiles? There are simply not enough existing data and no precedent for such analysis. Given the potential for unstable outcomes, depending on the desired outcome, it may be critical for policy-makers to consider the initial conditions of AV deployment, as these may have a substantial impact on the transportation system over the long term.
by Joseph Stanford.
S.M. in Engineering and Management
Apap, Robert M. "Models and Computational Strategies for Multistage Stochastic Programming under Endogenous and Exogenous Uncertainties". Research Showcase @ CMU, 2017. http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/1002.
Pełny tekst źródłaRizakou, Eleni. "Scenario-robustness methodology : an approach to flexible planning under uncertainty with an application to AIDS-related resource allocation". Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1995. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1368/.
Pełny tekst źródłaSdobnova, Alena, i Jakub Blaszkiewicz. "Analysis of An Uncertain Volatility Model in the framework of static hedging for different scenarios". Thesis, Halmstad University, School of Information Science, Computer and Electrical Engineering (IDE), 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-2199.
Pełny tekst źródłaIn Black-Scholes model, the parameters -a volatility and an interest rate were assumed as constants. In this thesis we concentrate on behaviour of the volatility as
a function and we find more realistic models for the volatility, which elimate a risk
connected with behaviour of the volatility of an underlying asset. That is
the reason why we will study the Uncertain Volatility Model. In Chapter
1 we will make some theoretical introduction to the Uncertain Volatility Model
introduced by Avellaneda, Levy and Paras and study how it behaves in the different scenarios. In
Chapter 2 we choose one of the scenarios. We also introduce the BSB equation
and try to make some modification to narrow the uncertainty bands using
the idea of a static hedging. In Chapter 3 we try to construct the proper
portfolio for the static hedging and compare the theoretical results with the real
market data from the Stockholm Stock Exchange.
Alkhairy, Ibrahim H. "Designing and Encoding Scenario-based Expert Elicitation for Large Conditional Probability Tables". Thesis, Griffith University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/390794.
Pełny tekst źródłaThesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Info & Comm Tech
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
Full Text
Beer, Simon. "Managing uncertainty in production system design during early-phase product development : A scenario-based case study within the commercial vehicle industry". Thesis, KTH, Industriell produktion, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-273185.
Pełny tekst źródłaBakgrund Produktionssystem inom fordonsindustrin utsätts för olika förändringsfaktorer i en allt mer flyktig marknadsmiljö. För att hantera de motstridiga områdena komplexitet, tid, kostnad och kvalitet är det nödvändigt att hela tiden anpassa och ompröva produktionssystem. Förutom andra interna och externa förändringsfaktorer initierar produktutvecklingsprojekt sådana anpassningsåtgärder vid design av produktionssystem. Karaktäristisk för utvecklingen av produktionssystem i den tidiga fasen av produktutvecklingen är den otillräckliga data- och informationsbasen. Befintliga metoder för design av produktionssystembaseras på ett befintligt produktionssystem och optimering av vissa viktiga prestandaindikatorer. Andra metoder som följer med produktutvecklingsprocessen fokuserar uteslutande på specifika aspekter av produktionsprocessen. Därför krävs en metod för helhetsbestämning och hänsyn till osäkerheter i utformningen av produktionssystem i den tidiga fasen av produktionsutvecklingen. Mål Syftet med avhandlingen är därför att utveckla, tillämpa och utvärdera en metod som möjliggör en strukturerad specifikation av osäkerheter i produktutvecklingsprojekt och andra externa och interna osäkerheter i företaget. Dessutom bör metodiken göra det lättare att avgöra vilken påverkan dessa osäkerheter kan ha på det befintliga produktionssystemet och hur motåtgärder kan utvecklas och utvärderas. Forskningsomfång Studien genomfördes inom kommersiella fordonsindustrin och i samarbete med Scania CV AB baserat i Södertälje, Sverige, som en industriell forskningspartner. Metoder Baserat på en litteraturöversikt och med beaktande av den industriella forskningspartnerns behov definierades kraven för metodiken. I varje del av ramverket finns det både anpassningar av befintliga metoder och metoder som har utvecklats under arbetets gång. Ramverket användes inom tillverkningsavdelningen för växellådan som en del av ett nytt utvecklingsprojekt. Resultat Resultaten visar att tillämpningen av ramverket avsevärt minskade osäkerheten i samband med ett nytt utvecklingsprojekt. Påverkade områden i produktionssystemet identifierades och lämpliga åtgärder för utformningen av produktionssystemet inleddes. Slutsatser Studien visar att den utvecklade metodiken gör det möjligt att kontrollera osäkerheter i utformningen av produktionssystem i den tidiga fasen av produktutvecklingen. Dessutom förbättrar det strukturerade sättet att arbeta och dokumentera samarbetet och kommunikationen mellan produkt- och produktionsutveckling samt total öppenhet inom utvecklingsprojektet.
Sheikh, Hussin Siti Aida. "Employees Provident Fund (EPF) Malaysia : generic models for asset and liability management under uncertainty". Thesis, Brunel University, 2012. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/7505.
Pełny tekst źródłaBORZOOEI, SINA. "Model-based optimization and scenario planning for a large-scale water resource recovery facility". Doctoral thesis, Politecnico di Torino, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2708023.
Pełny tekst źródłaCombier, Robert. "Risk-informed scenario-based technology and manufacturing evaluation of aircraft systems". Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49046.
Pełny tekst źródłaIlevbare, Imohiosen Michael. "An investigation into the treatment of uncertainty and risk in roadmapping : a framework and a practical process". Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2014. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/245140.
Pełny tekst źródłaBjörkman, Elin. "Osäkerhet vid översvämningskartering av vattendrag : En kunskapsöversikt och tillämpning på MIKE 11". Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-237133.
Pełny tekst źródłaDue to uncertainty in data, parameters and model structure, there may be large uncertainties in flood inundation models. Despite of this, uncertainty analysis is still rarely used by practitioners when creating flood maps. A reason why uncertainty analysis has not yet become customary in flood inundation modeling may be due to a lack of knowledge. Low availability of data can sometimes also make it more difficult to do an uncertainty analysis. Moreover, no examples exist of how uncertainties can be analyzed in MIKE 11, which is one of the most common models used in flood mapping at consultant agencies. The aim of this study was twofold. Firstly, to provide a general overview of current research on uncertainty and uncertainty analysis for flood inundation modeling. This in order to increase knowledge among consultants and decision makers. Secondly, to give an example of how uncertainties can be estimated in a flood inundation model created in MIKE 11 when there is limited access to data. The research overview showed that there is often considerable uncertainty in the discharge calculations and geometrical description in hydraulic models, and that there are many different ways to analyze the uncertainties. Some methods that are often used are Monte Carlo simulations, fuzzy sets, scenario analysis, Bayesian calibration and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, GLUE. A case study was performed in which a hydraulic model was built for the River Kungsbackaån in MIKE 11. A scenario analysis was carried out to show the uncertainties in the hydraulic model. Overall, 36 different model runs were made in which the calibration discharge, Manning's number and design flow were varied. Scenario analysis cannot provide a precise estimate of the uncertainty, it can only give a subjective estimate. The results of the scenario analysis showed that when the sea level in Kungsbackafjorden was 0,92 m the simulated water levels differed at most by 1,3 m for the 100-year discharge and by 0,41 m for the calculated maximum flow. Also, the flood extent of the two discharges were investigated. The greatest uncertainty in the extent was found in the flat areas even though the uncertainty in water levels was smaller there.
Dreborg, Karl Henrik. "Scenarios and structural uncertainty". Doctoral thesis, KTH, Infrastructure, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3697.
Pełny tekst źródłaLanganay, Jean. "Quantification des incertitudes d'une exploitation d'un gisement d'uranium par Récupération In Situ". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Paris sciences et lettres, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021UPSLM035.
Pełny tekst źródłaUranium In Situ Recovery (ISR) is based on the direct leaching of the uranium ore in the deposit by a mining solution. Fluid flow and geochemical reaction in the reservoir are difficult to predict due to geological, petrophysical and geochemical uncertainties. The reactive transport simulation code used to model ISR is very sensitive to the spatial distribution of the physical and chemical properties of the deposit. Geostatistical models are used to represent the uncertainty of the spatial distribution of geological properties. The direct propagation of geological uncertainties by multiple ISR mining simulations is intractable in an industrial context. This work presents a way to propagate geological uncertainties into uranium production uncertainties at a reduced computational cost, thanks to a scenario reduction method. A subset of geostatistical simulations is built to approximate the variability of a larger set. The selection is obtained using a proxy of reactive transport simulation. The main contribution of this work is the development of different proxys to approximate the uranium leaching. They allow the discrimination of geostatistical realizations in terms of potential uranium production.Then, the ISR simulation carried out with the selected geostatistical realizations gives an approximation of the uranium production variability over the whole set of geostatistical simulations. This approximation is then used to quantify the uncertainties on the uranium production. The proposed approach is assessed on real case studies. Finally, the propagation of the uranium production uncertainty, assessed by the scenario reduction method, on mining operation planning is developped. Furthermore, an exploratory work about the use of statistical meta-models as chemistry solvers is also presented
Grabaskas, David. "Analysis of Transient Overpower Scenarios in Sodium Fast Reactors". The Ohio State University, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1265726176.
Pełny tekst źródłaPucci, Nicole Christine. "Intolerance of Uncertainty, Anxiety and Worry in Response to a Novel Induction of Uncertainty". Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1322568818.
Pełny tekst źródłaKrivtchik, Guillaume. "Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios". Thesis, Grenoble, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014GRENI050/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaNuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enablethe comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management ofthe future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installedcapacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste.Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilitiescharacteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and throughoutthe scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work isto develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adaptedto scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computationsurrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parametersinclude perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which takeinto account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then theuncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, consideringdifferent options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment
Akgul, Edvin, i Gabriel Wadsten. "Scenario Planning : Preparing for the future during uncertain times". Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-446453.
Pełny tekst źródłaLe, Guenedal Théo. "Financial Modeling of Climate-related Risks". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022IPPAG009.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis research project aims at estimating financial risks related to climate change. Beyond the applications and quantitative findings, the main objective of the chapters of this thesis is to provide a structural and methodological framework that is generalizable, in order to facilitate their integration by practitioners. The first chapter proposes a bottom-up measure of transition risk, which can be incorporated with classical risk models (Merton or credit risk model). This cost-based approach is limited to the directly polluting sectors, which leads to the second chapter, which allows for the diffusion of transition risk through the value chain. These approaches offer a static structure that allows for a fixed scenario stress-test but not for pricing the bonds by considering heterogeneous scenarios and the probability of realization. To this end, chapter three proposes a pricing model that integrates a Bayesian approach in updating scenario probabilities based on observed jumps in carbon pricing mechanisms. Finally, the last chapter proposes a Monte-Carlo methodology for simulating annual damages caused by tropical cyclones. The conversion of raw climatic data into a synthetic database of losses is achieved by coupling statistical and thermodynamic relationships. The exposure of physical assets, the dynamics of socio-economic factors, local population densities and specific vulnerabilities in different regions of the world are borrowed from different segments of the literature, and combined to obtain a complete model of the classical triptych necessary for the study of physical hazards: hazard intensity x exposure x vulnerability generalizable and homogeneous across countries. The resulting signal can then be simply included in credit risk models equating annualized damages with additional debt
Patricksson, Øyvind Selnes. "Semi-Submersible Platform Design to Meet Uncertainty in Future Operating Scenarios". Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for marin teknikk, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-18563.
Pełny tekst źródłaGirod, Bastien. "Why six baseline scenarios? a research on the reasons for the growing baseline uncertainty of the IPCC scenarios /". Zürich : ETH, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, HES, Institute for Human-Environment Systmes, 2006. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=dipl&nr=277.
Pełny tekst źródłaKuhlmann, Salas Claudio Andrés. "Ellipsoidal forest and wildland fire scar scenarios for strategic forest management planning under uncertainty". Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2014. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/131350.
Pełny tekst źródłaIngeniero Civil Industrial
La importancia que ha tomado la conservación del medioambiente ha ido en aumento, lo que ha afectado directamente en los objetivos y forma de operar de las organizaciones. Es por esto que la interacción entre la operación y el desarrollo del ecosistema debe ser considerada para balancear la sustentabilidad y conservación con los objetivos productivos, siendo las perturbaciones forestales un punto de gran interés. Incendios, plagas, erupciones volcánicas e inundaciones son algunas de las perturbaciones al ecosistema que afectan la productividad del bosque. Por lo tanto, reducir el riesgo y las consecuencias de estos episodios es clave para la industria. El objetivo es crear una metodología que permita generar escenarios de incendios elipsoidales para su utilización en la toma de decisiones en el manejo de incendios y recursos forestales. Para esto se utilizan incendios elípticos generados a través de un simulador, los cuales, siguiendo el método de Monte Carlo, son asignados a uno de los patrones representativos de incendio previamente definidos, utilizando la distancia de Pompeiu-Hasudorff. La probabilidad de ocurrencia de los patrones representativos es obtenida al dar cuenta de la cantidad de simulaciones asignada a cada uno de ellos. Para dar con un algoritmo que permitiera utilizar los recursos computacionales de forma eficiente se implementaron distintos métodos para el cálculo de la distancia de Pompeiu-Hausdorff, además de utilizar múltiples procesadores en paralelo cuando esto fuese posible. Cinco métodos fueron implementados, los cuales son definidos utilizando las propiedades geométricas de las elipses para lograr resolver el problema de optimización implícito. El método que logra dar con los resultados más exactos para la distancia hace uso de optimización cónica, mientras que el más rápido calcula la distancia entre cada uno de los vértices de una elipse discretizada. Haciendo uso de estos dos métodos, se genera una estrategia multi etapa para el cálculo de la distancia de Pompeiu-Hasdorff entre dos elipses que es eficiente y precisa. La estabilidad de los resultados obtenidos para 200 patrones es lograda luego de 100,000 sampleos, sin embargo, se observaron variaciones muy pequeñas incluso después de 20,000 simulaciones. En conclusión, los intervalos de confianza obtenidos para las probabilidades calculadas dependen de los recursos computacionales con los que se cuente y de las restricciones de tiempo que puedan ser impuestas. La metodología desarrollada entrega a los planificadores forestales una herramienta para analizar la probabilidad de incendio de zonas determinadas, las cuales pueden ser utilizadas en un modelo de optimización bajo incertidumbre que les permita manejar los recursos disponibles de la mejor forma posible.
Zhou, Weifeng. "Resilience analysis of nuclear fuel cycle scenarios". Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020GRALI055.
Pełny tekst źródłaNuclear fuel cycle systems, composed of reactors, various fuels, and different cycle facilities, are complex and in constant evolution. Thanks to their abilities to make projections of industrial strategies and to assess the associated impacts on nuclear fuel cycle systems, nuclear fuel cycle scenarios are considered as a powerful tool for decision-making analyses. Scenario studies assist decision-makers in identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different strategies for a nuclear fleet evolution and then proposing possible evolution trajectories for the nuclear industry according to constraints from physics, economics, industry, etc.However, scenario studies are usually subject to different kinds of uncertainties, especially the so-called “deep uncertainty.” This concept refers to “unknown unknowns,” which scenario study results are unsuited to address. Indeed, under the impact of deep uncertainty, i.e., disruptions, the trajectories proposed by the scenario studies can become invalid: they do not satisfy the scenario constraints anymore.In order to make the trajectories valid again after disruption due to uncertainty, the first possibility is to study the resistance strategy. The resistance strategy consists of finding scenario trajectories that remain valid under the impact of uncertainty without exogenous readjustments of trajectories. However, the resistance capabilities of scenarios are limited: resistance is only adapted to uncertainties with small impact, while the impact of deep uncertainty is usually strong.As a complementary solution to the resistance strategy, we propose using resilience strategies. The resilience strategies consist of using predesigned measures, called “levers,” to readjust the scenario trajectory when the resistance strategy is insufficient. We aim to use the effect of the exogenous readjustments of trajectories, which are introduced through the levers, to counterbalance the impact of disruption and remain the trajectory valid. To evaluate the resilience of scenarios, we developed a resilience analysis framework, based on the start-of-the-art SUR (Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction) algorithm.We applied the developed resilience strategy to two scenario problems in which a simplified French nuclear fleet with uncertain power reduction is considered. To define the validity of trajectory, we imposed five constraints about the reprocessing plant utilization ratio, plutonium separation, plutonium content in MOX fuel, and spent fuel storage. In each problem, we gave a prior trajectory supposed as a result of a scenario study with a hypothesis to keep the installed power constant in the future. We assumed that following the disruption of the study context, the total electricity power is disrupted and reduced in the future. The results showed that the prior trajectories in both problems are resilient for the assumed disruptions: it is possible to keep the prior trajectories valid by readjusting the reprocessing and the MOX fuel loadings in reactors. Such results demonstrate the evolutions of the nuclear fleet in the prior trajectories are flexible in front of the disruption of total electricity power
Panichprecha, Sorot. "Abstracting and correlating heterogeneous events to detect complex scenarios". Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2009. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/26737/1/Sorot_Panichprecha_Thesis.pdf.
Pełny tekst źródłaPanichprecha, Sorot. "Abstracting and correlating heterogeneous events to detect complex scenarios". Queensland University of Technology, 2009. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/26737/.
Pełny tekst źródłaCornelio, Cristina. "Preference reasoning and aggregation over combinatorial domains in uncertain and multi-agent scenarios". Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3427129.
Pełny tekst źródłaLe preferenze, intese come opinioni di utenti su un insieme di oggetti, sono ampiamente presenti nelle nostre vite e recentemente sono diventate molto studiate in Intelligenza Artificiale. In molti contesti della nostra vita, non consideriamo gli oggetti come entità atomiche, ma consideriamo un insieme di caratteristiche/attributi che le caratterizzano e che interagiscono tra di loro. Siamo dunque particolarmente interessati in questi tipi di scenario: preferenze condizionali su domini combinatori e multi-attributo. L’abilità di rappresentare le preferenze in maniera compatta è essenziale, in particolare nel contesto di modellazione e ragionamento con preferenze multi-attributo, in presente un esplosione combinatoria di informazione che causa un alto costo computazionale. A questo scopo sono state sviluppate in letteratura una serie di linguaggi di rappresentazione compatta. In questa tesi ci focalizziamo inizialmente su un modello grafico di rappresentazione delle preferenze condizionali: le conditional preference networks (CP-nets). Analizziamo quindi i vantaggi e gli svantaggi delle CP-net concentrandoci su scenari incerti e multi-agente. Gli scenari reali sono spesso dinamici e incerti: un utente può cambiare le sue idee nel tempo e le sue preferenze potrebbero essere affette da errori o rumore. In questa tesi proponiamo una nuova strutture chiamata PCP-net (probabilistic conditional preference networks), generalizzazione delle CP-net, capace di rispondere ai cambiamenti attraverso aggiornamenti e di supportare informazione probabilistica. Le PCP-net possono essere usate anche per rappresentare i contesti multi-agente dove ogni agente è rappresentato da una CP-net e le probabilità vengono usate per riconciliare i conflitti tra gli utenti. In questa tesi analizziamo anche un altro linguaggio di rappresentazione compatta, simile alle CP-net: i vincoli soft. I vincoli soft sono meno restrittivi rispetto alle CP-net, ma le complessità computazionali rimangono le stesse per i task principali. Per questo motivo, ripensiamo lo scenario multi-agente usando un profilo di agenti che esprimono le loro preferenze attraverso vincoli soft, invece che tramite una collezione di CP-net poi aggregate in una PCP-net. La letteratura riguardante le CP-net presenta anche molte altre generalizzazioni, poichè le CP-net sono per certi versi restrittive e limitate nell’espressività. Ad esempio, le CP-net sono state estese con vincoli, con inconsistenza locale e incompletezza (GCP-net), con funzioni di utilità (UCP-net), etc. Sono dunque stati sviluppati molti formalismi differenti per descrivere le preferenze condizionali e ognuno di essi ha una sintassi e una semantica ah hoc e algoritmi specifici. In questa tesi specifichiamo un nuovo framework con lo scopo di unificare tutti questi modelli. La forza della nostra formulazione è la diretta espressione del modello in logica standard al primo ordine, come una teoria Datalog vincolata. Questa formulazione è ricca abbastanza da esprimere le CP-nets e tutte le sue estensioni. Concludiamo la tesi, studiando un applicazione delle preferenze in un scenario reale. Analizziamo come migliorare gli algoritmi di scambi di reni aumentando il numero di trapianti e di durata di vita aspettata, fornendo alcuni risultati incoraggianti. Quindi forniamo anche alcune idee preliminari riguardo a come incorporare le preferenze nelle procedure di matching attualmente utilizzate.
Salas, Bravo Pablo Andres. "The effects of uncertainty in the technological transitions of the power sector : endogenous emissions scenarios up to 2050". Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2017. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/265885.
Pełny tekst źródłaEisenreich, Katrin Verfasser], i Volker [Akademischer Betreuer] [Markl. "Database Support for Uncertain Data Analysis and Correlation Handling in Scenario Planning / Katrin Eisenreich. Betreuer: Volker Markl". Berlin : Universitätsbibliothek der Technischen Universität Berlin, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1033640387/34.
Pełny tekst źródłaLind, Mårten. "Opportunities and uncertainties in the early stages of development of CO2 capture and storage". Doctoral thesis, KTH, Energiprocesser, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-10985.
Pełny tekst źródłaQC 20100727
Lim, Dongwook. "A systematic approach to design for lifelong aircraft evolution". Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/28280.
Pełny tekst źródłaCommittee Chair: Mavris, Dimitri; Committee Member: Bishop, Carlee; Committee Member: Costello, Mark; Committee Member: Nam, Taewoo; Committee Member: Schrage, Daniel.
Zurell, Damaris. "Integrating dynamic and statistical modelling approaches in order to improve predictions for scenarios of environmental change". Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2011. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2011/5684/.
Pełny tekst źródłaDas Vorkommen von Arten wird zunehmend bedroht durch Klima- und Landnutzungswandel. Robuste Vorhersagen der damit verbundenen Arealveränderungen sind ausschlaggebend für die Erarbeitung dynamischer und nachhaltiger Naturschutzstrategien. Habitateignungsmodelle erstellen statistische Zusammenhänge zwischen dem Vorkommen einer Art und relevanten Umweltvariablen und erlauben zügige Einschätzungen potentieller Arealveränderungen. Dabei werden jedoch transiente Dynamiken weitgehend ignoriert sowie demographische Prozesse und biotische Interaktionen. Daher wurden Vorschläge laut, diese statistischen Modelle mit mechanistischeren Ansätzen zu koppeln. In der vorliegenden Arbeit zeige ich zwei verschiedene Möglichkeiten solcher Kopplung auf. (i) Ich beschreibe den sogenannten ‚Virtuellen Ökologen’-Ansatz als mächtiges Validierungswerkzeug, in dem mechanistische Modelle virtuelle Testflächen bieten zur Erforschung verschiedener Probenahmedesigns oder statistischer Methoden sowie spezifischer Fragestellungen. Auch verwende ich diesen Ansatz, um systematisch zu untersuchen wie sich transiente Dynamiken sowie Arteigenschaften und ökologische Prozesse auf die Vorhersagegüte von Habitateignungsmodellen auswirken. So kann ich entscheidende Prozesse identifizieren welche in zukünftigen Modellen Berücksichtigung finden sollten. (ii) Darauf aufbauend koppele ich Vorhersagen von Habitateignungsmodellen mit einem individuen-basierten Populationsmodell, um die Entwicklung des Schweizer Birkhuhnbestandes unter Klimawandel vorherzusagen. Durch die explizite Berücksichtigung der Wechselwirkungen zwischen Habitat und demographischer Prozesse lassen sich direktere Aussagen über Populationsentwicklung und damit verbundener Extinktionsrisiken treffen. Allerdings führen verschiedene Simulationen auch zu hoher Variabilität zwischen Vorhersagen, was die Bedeutung von Sensitivitätsanalysen unterstreicht, um Unsicherheiten und Robustheit von Vorhersagen einzuschätzen. Außerdem identifiziere ich Restriktionen in der Datenabdeckung des Umweltraumes als möglichen Grund für kontrastierende Vorhersagen verschiedener Habitateignungsmodelle. Wenn die Nische einer Art nicht vollständig durch Daten beschrieben ist, kann dies zu unrealistischen Vorhersagen der Art-Habitat-Beziehung führen. Insgesamt trägt meine Arbeit erheblich bei zu einem besseren Verständnis der Auswirkung verschiedenster Unsicherheitsfaktoren auf Vorhersagen von Arealveränderungen und zeigt Wege auf, mit diesen umzugehen. Abschließend erstelle ich einen vorläufigen Leitfaden für Vorhersagemodelle und identifiziere Kernpunkte für weitere Forschung auf diesem Gebiet.
Künzner, Florian [Verfasser], Hans-Joachim [Akademischer Betreuer] Bungartz, Hans-Joachim [Gutachter] Bungartz i Ernst [Gutachter] Rank. "Efficient non-intrusive uncertainty quantification for large-scale simulation scenarios / Florian Künzner ; Gutachter: Hans-Joachim Bungartz, Ernst Rank ; Betreuer: Hans-Joachim Bungartz". München : Universitätsbibliothek der TU München, 2021. http://d-nb.info/1227580576/34.
Pełny tekst źródłaSierra, Gonzalez David. "Towards Human-Like Prediction and Decision-Making for Automated Vehicles in Highway Scenarios". Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019GREAM012/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaDuring the past few decades automakers have consistently introduced technological innovations aimed to make road vehicles safer. The level of sophistication of these advanced driver assistance systems has increased parallel to developments in sensor technology and embedded computing power. More recently, a lot of the research made both by industry and institutions has concentrated on achieving fully automated driving. The potential societal benefits of this technology are numerous, including safer roads, improved traffic flows, increased mobility for the elderly and the disabled, and optimized human productivity. However, before autonomous vehicles can be commercialized they should be able to safely share the road with human drivers. In other words, they should be capable of inferring the state and intentions of surrounding traffic from the raw data provided by a variety of onboard sensors, and to use this information to make safe navigation decisions. Moreover, in order to truly navigate safely they should also consider potential obstacles not observed by the sensors (such as occluded vehicles or pedestrians). Despite the apparent complexity of the task, humans are extremely good at predicting the development of traffic situations. After all, the actions of any traffic participant are constrained by the road network, by the traffic rules, and by a risk-aversive common sense. The lack of this ability to naturally understand a traffic scene constitutes perhaps the major challenge holding back the large-scale deployment of truly autonomous vehicles in the roads.In this thesis, we address the full pipeline from driver behavior modeling and inference to decision-making for navigation. In the first place, we model the behavior of a generic driver automatically from demonstrated driving data, avoiding thus the traditional hand-tuning of the model parameters. This model encodes the preferences of a driver with respect to the road network (e.g. preferred lane or speed) and also with respect to other road users (e.g. preferred distance to the leading vehicle). Secondly, we describe a method that exploits the learned model to predict the future sequence of actions of any driver in a traffic scene up to the distant future. This model-based prediction method assumes that all traffic participants behave in a risk-aware manner and can therefore fail to predict dangerous maneuvers or accidents. To be able to handle such cases, we propose a more sophisticated probabilistic model that estimates the state and intentions of surrounding traffic by combining the model-based prediction with the dynamic evidence provided by the sensors. In a way, the proposed model mimics the reasoning process of human drivers: we know what a given vehicle is likely to do given the situation (this is given by the model), but we closely monitor its dynamics to detect deviations from the expected behavior. In practice, combining both sources of information results in an increased robustness of the intention estimates in comparison with approaches relying only on dynamic evidence. Finally, the learned driver behavioral model and the prediction model are integrated within a probabilistic decision-making framework. The proposed methods are validated with real-world data collected with an instrumented vehicle. Although focused on highway environments, this work could be easily adapted to handle alternative traffic scenarios
Гушло, Юлія Юріївна. "Науково-методичні засади стратегічного управління фінансами банку в умовах невизначеності". Rozprawa doktorska PhD, Сумський державний університет, 2021. https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/83803.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe dissertation is devoted to solving a scientific problem, which is to improve the theoretical foundations and scientific and methodological approaches to the strategic management of bank finances in conditions of uncertainty. The dissertation provides a thorough analysis of the bank's conceptual and categorical apparatus of strategic financial management. As a result, it is proposed to consider the bank's finances as a set of external and internal economic relations regarding the formation, distribution, and use of the bank's financial resources, which is expected to increase economic benefits in the future. On this basis, it is determined that the objects of financial management of the bank are the relationships that arise in the organization of business processes and operations, form and allocate financial resources, regulate financial risks and liquidity, determine financial results, profitability, and efficiency of the bank. Bank finance management covers the entire set of forms and methods of organizing economic relations in the bank. It is substantiated that banks' strategic management is carried out in conditions of uncertainty related to both objective and subjective aspects. It is established that the uncertainty is related to the objective aspects. They are due to the influence of micro-level factors (uncertainty in economic relations in the field of bank finance), macro-level (uncertainty of political, macroeconomic, social, and technological nature) and mega-levels (uncertainty caused by geopolitical crises, changes in monetary and banking regulation, economic processes in the global economic and financial systems, turbulence in the global financial market, etc.). It is proved that uncertainties of internal origin are subjective. They are a consequence of the effectiveness of internal banking aspects of management. They include uncertainty of the goal setting (uncertainty of goals, the uncertainty of criteria), the uncertainty of decision-making (structural uncertainty, uncertainty of choice, uncertainty of consequences). It was found that the basis of strategic management of bank finances in conditions of uncertainty is the management of size (volume), balance and stability of financial resources. The effectiveness of strategic management of banks should be considered a target optimized value of profitability parameters while limiting financial risks and providing the required level of liquidity. At the same time, there is a close relationship between key performance indicators, as liquidity is determined by the quality and stability of assets and liabilities, which, in turn, generate risks that, if significantly increased, can adversely affect liquidity. The dissertation develops a scientific and methodological approach to determining the impact of uncertainty indicators on the fundamental performance of banks. It involves the integrated use of statistical tests, properties of the law of normal distribution, and multiple regression analysis. Based on its application, it is empirically established that such indicators of uncertainty as to the World Uncertainty Index in Ukraine and the Geopolitical Risk Index in Ukraine have a statistically significant impact (with different levels of significance) on the fundamental performance of banks (capital adequacy, efficiency, assets and liabilities). The developed approach significantly expands the analytical potential for assessing the functioning of banks in conditions of uncertainty of the operating environment. The bank's strategic financial management is proposed to be interpreted as a dynamic-adaptive system, interconnections and interaction of subsystems provide purposeful multilevel influence on the formation and further regulation of parameters of management objects to achieve goals within the given values of risks account the indeterminate environment. It is determined that the component composition of the strategic financial management system of the bank is a hierarchical set of target, functional, organizational and structural subsystems, as well as ways of their interaction, integration and disintegration based on a set of principles to achieve management goals within specified risk values, taking into account exposure to the nondeterministic environment. The dissertation proves that given the peculiarities of the impact of uncertainty, strategic financial management of the bank should be implemented based on the dynamic-adaptive model, which provides a classic composition of components according to the system approach and implementation sequence according to the process approach. Still, each of its functions, methods, and tools acquire specific content to achieve the goals and are implemented through functional-adaptive planning, functional-adaptive diagnosis, and functional-adaptive analysis and monitoring. To reduce the uncertainty of management objectives and criteria for their achievement, the work formed a set of measures to improve the methodological support of strategic planning of bank finances. The scientific and methodological approach to the strategic scenario planning of the bank's finances has been improved and proposed for practical use. Its introduction in the activity of Ukrainian banks allows reducing the level of the negative impact of uncertainty and increasing their adaptability to non-deterministic conditions of the operating environment. The dissertation develops a scientific and methodological approach to analyzing the quality of the bank's strategic financial plans. The analysis of the quality of the bank's strategic financial plans is proposed to be defined as a system of comprehensive study and research of the quality of their development and implementation, resulting in a formalized and informal assessment of the extent to which the bank will be able to achieve specific targets. Accordingly, it may be necessary to amend or adjust the target parameters of the bank's strategic financial plans. The system of comprehensive study and analysis of the quality of development and implementation of strategic financial plans of the bank should include: defining the purpose and objectives of quality assessment at each stage; a set of quantitative and qualitative indicators for assessing the impact of factors on the quality of the bank's strategic financial plans; tools and methods of their evaluation, which allow to investigate them; technology of interpretation of the data obtained as a result of assessment and mechanisms for making the necessary management decisions that will improve the quality of strategic financial planning in the bank. The methodological tools of modeling and forecasting profitability as a targeted strategy of strategic financial management of the bank to ensure its viability are studied and improved in the work. It consists of a comprehensive and multi-stage analysis using statistical tests and the formation on this basis of multi-regression equations with the necessary indicators of statistical significance, based on internal factors influencing banks' financial results and is an analytical basis for transforming strategic financial management of the bank in uncertainty. The proposed scientific and methodological approach allows making predictive conclusions about changes in profitability and identifying weaknesses, including by comparing with the "peer-group" identified by the bank areas of placement of funds and sources of funding. It will form an analytical basis for developing a set of recommendations for improving the effectiveness of strategic management of the bank's finances in conditions of uncertainty, mainly through the adjustment of strategy, business model, and business plan. The results of statistical tests and multi-regression analysis of the sample of Ukrainian banks allowed us to conclude that uncertainty hurts their viability due to the constant decline in their profitability due to higher growth rates of costs compared to income. For banks with more conservative business models, the decrease in viability will be insignificant. Given the identification of negative trends that reflect the early, initial signs of the threat of declining viability of banks, the bank's strategic financial management should introduce appropriate preventive management influences to adapt the bank to operate in conditions of growing uncertainty. The systematic approach to forming an optimally balanced structure of assets and liabilities of the bank based on their optimization using nonlinear reduced gradient GRG is developed in work. It provides for the consistent implementation of the following stages: the formation of information support; calculation of the period of construction of the optimally balanced structure of assets and liabilities (modeling horizon); mathematical description of the objective function and conditions-constraints; determination of upper and lower limits of changes in balances on assets and liabilities; verification of information support and mathematical model; calculation of the optimally balanced structure of assets and liabilities based on the use of nonlinear algorithm of reduced GRG gradient; analysis of optimization results based on sensitivity analysis and ensuring the maintenance of an optimally balanced structure of the bank's assets and liabilities. The calculation result is an optimally balanced structure of assets and liabilities within an individually defined planning horizon. The proposed approach integrates the capabilities of the mathematical apparatus of the description of economic processes with the principles of strategic management of bank finances and the requirements of the NBU to ensure the stability and viability of the business model. Its main feature is the ability to modify the set of functional constraints depending on the individual characteristics of a particular bank and the ability to adapt to the real capabilities of the bank in terms of changes in the total balances of groups of assets and liabilities. Based on the results of approbation based on the data of Raiffeisen Bank Aval JSC, it is empirically proved that the bank needs to reconsider the structure of assets and liabilities with reorientation to work with individuals to increase efficiency, the greater level of financial stability, including capitalization and liquidity. In the end, this is a better strategy both under normal operating conditions and in terms of confronting conditions of uncertainty and instability. Subject to changes in the monetary policy of the NBU regarding the size of the discount rate, the bank will receive more benefits when it increases due to a further increase in the level of efficiency and ROA. The main provisions of the dissertation are reduced to the level of methodological developments and practical recommendations that can be applied by banking institutions in the process of making management decisions on the formation and use of financial resources of the bank in conditions of uncertainty.
Fluixá, Sanmartín Javier. "Adaptation strategies of dam safety management to new climate change scenarios informed by risk indicators". Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/157634.
Pełny tekst źródła[CAT] Les grans preses, així com els dics de protecció, són infraestructures crítiques que si fallen poden produir importants conseqüències econòmiques i socials. Tradicionalment, la gestió del risc i la definició d'estratègies d'adaptació en la presa de decisions han assumit la invariabilitat de les condicions climàtiques, inclosa la persistència de patrons històrics de variabilitat natural i la probabilitat d'esdeveniments extrems. No obstant això, s'espera que el canvi climàtic afecte de manera important als sistemes hídrics i comprometi la seguretat de les preses, la qual cosa pot implicar possibles impactes negatius en termes de costos econòmics, socials i ambientals. Els propietaris i operadors de preses deuen per tant adaptar les seues estratègies de gestió i adaptació a mitjà i llarg termini als nous escenaris climàtics. En la present tesi s'ha desenvolupat una metodologia integral per a incorporar els impactes del canvi climàtic en la gestió de la seguretat de preses i en el suport a la presa de decisions. L'objectiu és plantejar estratègies d'adaptació que incorporen la variabilitat dels futurs riscos, així com la incertesa associada als nous escenaris climàtics. L'impacte del canvi climàtic en la seguretat de preses s'ha estructurat utilitzant models de risc i mitjançant una revisió bibliogràfica interdisciplinària sobre els seus potencials efectes. Això ha permès establir un enfocament dependent del temps que incorpori l'evolució futura del risc, per a això s'ha definit un nou indicador que avalua quantitativament l'eficiència a llarg termini de les mesures de reducció de risc. A més, per a integrar la incertesa dels escenaris futurs en la presa de decisions, la metodologia proposa una estratègia robusta que permet establir seqüències optimitzades d'implementació de mesures correctores per a l'adaptació al canvi climàtic. A pesar de les dificultats per a assignar probabilitats a esdeveniments específics, esta metodologia permet una anàlisi sistemàtica i objectiva, reduint considerablement la subjectivitat. Aquesta metodologia s'ha aplicat al cas real d'una presa espanyola susceptible a l'efecte del canvi climàtic. L'anàlisi se centra en l'escenari hidrològic, on les avingudes són la principal càrrega a la qual està sotmesa la presa. Respecte d'anàlisis prèvies de la presa, els resultats obtinguts proporcionen nova i valuosa informació sobre l'evolució dels riscos futurs i sobre com abordar-los. En general, s'espera un augment del risc amb el temps; això ha portat a plantejar noves mesures d'adaptació que no estarien justificades en la situació actual. Aquesta és la primera aplicació documentada d'una anàlisi exhaustiva dels impactes del canvi climàtic sobre el risc de trencament d'una presa que serveix com a marc de referència per a la definició d'estratègies d'adaptació a llarg termini i l'avaluació de la seua eficiencia.
[EN] Large dams as well as protective dikes and levees are critical infrastructures whose failure has major economic and social consequences. Risk assessment approaches and decision-making strategies have traditionally assumed the stationarity of climatic conditions, including the persistence of historical patterns of natural variability and the likelihood of extreme events. However, climate change has a major impact on the world's water systems and is endangering dam safety, leading to potentially damaging impacts in terms of economic, social and environmental costs. Owners and operators of dams must adapt their mid- and long-term management and adaptation strategies to new climate scenarios. This thesis proposes a comprehensive approach to incorporate climate change impacts on dam safety management and decision-making support. The goal is to design adaptation strategies that incorporate the non-stationarity of future risks as well as the uncertainties associated with new climate scenarios. Based on an interdisciplinary review of the state-of-the-art research on its potential effects, the global impact of climate change on dam safety is structured using risk models. This allows a time-dependent approach to be established to consider the potential evolution of risk with time. Consequently, a new indicator is defined to support the quantitative assessment of the long-term efficiency of risk reduction measures. Additionally, in order to integrate the uncertainty of future scenarios, the approach is enhanced with a robust decision-making strategy that helps establish the consensus sequence of measures to be implemented for climate change adaptation. Despite the difficulties to allocate probabilities to specific events, such framework allows for a systematic and objective analysis, reducing considerably the subjectivity. Such a methodology is applied to a real case study of a Spanish dam subjected to the effects of climate change. The analysis focus on hydrological scenarios, where floods are the main load to which the dam is subjected. The results provide valuable new information with respect to the previously existing analysis of the dam regarding the evolution of future risks and how to cope with it. In general, risks are expected to increase with time and, as a result, new adaptation measures that are not justifiable for the present situation are recommended. This is the first documented application of a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on dam failure risk and serves as a reference benchmark for the definition of long-term adaptation strategies and the evaluation of their efficiency.
Fluixá Sanmartín, J. (2020). Adaptation strategies of dam safety management to new climate change scenarios informed by risk indicators [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/157634
TESIS
Hudec, Martin. "Klimatická změna a její vliv na vodohospodářské řešení zásobního objemu nádrže". Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2018. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-372277.
Pełny tekst źródłaOstberg, Sebastian. "Joint impacts of climate and land use change on the terrestrial biosphere". Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/19319.
Pełny tekst źródłaThere are two major pathways of human interference with the terrestrial biosphere: 1) directly through land use change (LUC) and 2) indirectly through anthropogenic climate change (CC) which in turn drives ecosystem change. This dissertation presents an attempt to assess human-induced biosphere change through both these pathways in a consistent and quantitative way. The analysis is based on an integrated indicator of macro-scale changes in biogeochemical characteristics and ecosystem structure. Large shifts in these basic building blocks of the biosphere are taken to indicate a risk to more complex ecosystem properties as they potentially disrupt long-standing biotic interactions. This dissertation relies on simulations with the dynamic global vegetation, agriculture and hydrology model LPJmL to quantify how biogeochemical characteristics and ecosystem structure have responded to historical LUC and CC. For future projections LPJmL is driven by a large number of CC and LUC scenarios, using the same indicator to measure the impact on the biosphere. Simulation results show that major impacts on the biosphere from CC and LUC have expanded from merely 0.5% of the land surface in 1700 to 25-31% of the land surface today. Land use has been the main anthropogenic driver causing major ecosystem change in the past. For the future, results show that CC is expected to take over as the main anthropogenic driver of major ecosystem change during this century in all but the most ambitious climate mitigation scenarios. Despite a growing world population, some land use scenarios project that future efficiency improvements will allow for a reduction of agricultural land and hence a reduction of the impact of LUC on the terrestrial biosphere. Yet, results also show that reduced LUC impacts will likely not be able to compensate for the increase in CC impacts, and human-induced transformation of the biosphere is likely to grow during this century regardless of the considered scenario.
Nosjean, Nicolas. "Management et intégration des risques et incertitudes pour le calcul de volumes de roches et de fluides au sein d’un réservoir, zoom sur quelques techniques clés d’exploration Integrated Post-stack Acoustic Inversion Case Study to Enhance Geological Model Description of Upper Ordovicien Statics : from imaging to interpretation pitfalls and an efficient way to overcome them Improving Upper Ordovician reservoir characterization - an Algerian case study Tracking Fracture Corridors in Tight Gas Reservoirs : An Algerian Case Study Integrated sedimentological case study of glacial Ordovician reservoirs in the Illizi Basin, Algeria A Case Study of a New Time-Depth Conversion Workflow Designed for Optimizing Recovery Proper Systemic Knowledge of Reservoir Volume Uncertainties in Depth Conversion Integration of Fault Location Uncertainty in Time to Depth Conversion Emergence of edge scenarios in uncertainty studies for reservoir trap analysis Enhancing geological model with the use of Spectral Decomposition - A case study of a prolific stratigraphic play in North Viking Graben, Norway Fracture corridor identification through 3D multifocusing to improve well deliverability, an Algerian tight reservoir case study Geological Probability Of Success Assessment for Amplitude-Driven Prospects, A Nile Delta Case Study". Thesis, université Paris-Saclay, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020UPASS085.
Pełny tekst źródłaIn the last 20 years, I have been conducting various research projects focused on the management of risks and uncertainties in the petroleum exploration domain. The various research projects detailed in this thesis are dealing with problematics located throughout the whole Exploration and Production chain, from seismic acquisition and processing, until the optimal exploration to development wells placement. Focus is made on geophysical risks and uncertainties, where these problematics are the most pronounced and paradoxically the less worked in the industry. We can subdivide my research projects into tree main axes, which are following the hydrocarbon exploration process, namely: seismic processing, seismic interpretation thanks to the integration with various well informations, and eventually the analysis and extraction of key uncertainties, which will be the basis for the optimal calculation of in place and recoverable volumes, in addition to the associated risk analysis on a given target structure. The various research projects that are detailed in this thesis have been applied successfully on operational North Africa and North Sea projects. After introducing risks and uncertainty notions, we will detail the exploration process and the key links with these issues. I will then present four major research projects with their theoretical aspects and applied case study on an Algerian asset
Vestin, Albin, i Gustav Strandberg. "Evaluation of Target Tracking Using Multiple Sensors and Non-Causal Algorithms". Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Reglerteknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-160020.
Pełny tekst źródłaShaw, Michael Patrick. "The use of scenario planning for managing environmental uncertainty". Thesis, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10413/4221.
Pełny tekst źródłaThesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, Durban, 2003.