Rozprawy doktorskie na temat „Prices of sugar”

 

The world is experiencing yet another energy- and fuel predicament as oil prices are escalating to new hights. Alternative fuels are being promoted globally as the increasing gasoline prices trigger inflation. Basic food commodities are some of the goods hit by this inflation and the purpose of this thesis is to analyse whether the higher maize and sugar prices are having any effect on the expanding ethanol production. This thesis focuses on the two major crop inputs in ethanol production: maize (in the US) and sugar cane (in Brazil). Econometric tests using cross-sectional data were carried through to find the elasticities of the variables. The crops prices were tested against ethanol output using the log-linear model in several regressions to find a relationship. In addition, the output levels of the crops were tested using the same method. It was found that maize prices and output affects ethanol production. Sugar cane prices do not have any significant impact on ethanol production while sugar cane output has a small, yet significant relationhip with ethanol. Consequently, ethanol’s rise in the fuel market could be a result of increased maize input, rather than sugar.

 

Dagens värld upplever ännu ett energi- och bränsle predikament när oljepriser eskalerar mot nya höjder. Alternativa bränslen marknadsförs globalt samtidigt som de stigande bensinpriserna stimulerar inflationen. Några av de varor som drabbas av denna inflation är grundläggande livsmedelsprodukter och syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera huruvida de högre priserna på majs och socker påverkar den expanderande etanolproduktionen. Uppsatsen fokuserar på de två stora grödor som används som insatsvaror vid framställningen av etanol: majs (i USA) och sockerrör (i Brasilien). Ekonometriska tester genomfördes för att erhålla variablernas elasticiteter med hjälp av den cross-sectional data som behandlades. Genom log-linear modellen utfördes det ett antal regressioner för att hitta ett samband mellan grödornas priser och etanolproduktionen. Därutöver genomfördes tester för att hitta sambandet mellan grödornas utbud och etanol med hjälp av samma modell. Det upptäcktes att både pris och utbudet av majs påverkar etanolproduktionen. Sockerrörspriser har ingen signifikant inverkan på etanolproduktionen medan utbudet av sockerrör har en signifikant, om än svag, relation till etanol. Följaktligen kan etanols tillväxt i  bränslemarknaden tolkas som ett resultat av en stigande majsinsats snarare än sockerinstats vid etanolframställningen.

Obesity has increased dramatically in the past 25 years. The consumption of added sugar has increased significantly during the same time period. Previous research indicates a direct correlation between the consumption of added sugar and the prevalence of obesity. Sugar has been identified in multiple studies as having addictive or opiate-like qualities. Unquestionably, added sugar consumption has contributed to the current obesity epidemic. Here, we apply a reference price economic model to attempt to describe sugar consumption. Using consumption and price data from the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture, we made a reference price estimation of domestic refined sugar (sucrose) consumption. Using time-series econometric techniques, we tested the effects of internal and external reference prices, in the form of first differenced own price and price of other nutrient classes, respectively, on sugar demand. Results indicate that internal and, particularly, external reference prices do indeed play a role in consumption decisions. However, the model lacks socioeconomic variables that may help to provide a more complete consumption picture.

O principal objetivo deste estudo foi estimar um modelo analítico que explicasse a relação entre os mercados de etanol hidratado e de gasolina C, incluindo, também, efeitos de outros fatores, como o preço de açúcar nos mercados doméstico e internacional e a renda. Por sua capacidade de captar efeitos dinâmicos, utilizou-se o Modelo de Auto-Regressão Vetorial com Correção de Erro VEC. A análise das funções de demanda dos combustíveis mostrou que o consumo de etanol responde de forma expressiva a variações contemporâneas no próprio preço e no preço da gasolina, produto substituto nesse segmento de mercado. Já com relação à demanda de gasolina C, verifica-se que suas vendas respondem menos tanto ao próprio preço como ao do etanol. De maneira geral, a análise das funções de respostas a impulsos permite verificar que os efeitos dos choques não antecipados sobre as variáveis do modelo são de curta duração, desaparecendo, na maior parte das vezes, após o terceiro mês. A renda mostrou-se importante variável explicativa tanto para o consumo de etanol hidratado quanto de gasolina C. Um choque exógeno no preço internacional de açúcar resulta em um efeito elevado no preço do produto no mercado doméstico. De outro lado, um choque no preço doméstico de açúcar tem impacto significativo no preço do etanol anidro (elasticidade acumulada de 0,57), sendo que esses produtos concorrem pela mesma matéria-prima na indústria. Como este preço, por sua vez, representa uma variável proxy para o preço do etanol hidratado no segmento produtor, pode-se afirmar que 60% das variações de preço neste segmento são transmitidas ao preço do combustível no mercado varejista. A análise da decomposição das variâncias do erro de previsão evidenciou que a variável que tem maior impacto sobre o preço do etanol hidratado combustível no varejo é o preço do etanol anidro (proxy do preço do etanol hidratado no segmento produtor). Os principais determinantes da venda de etanol hidratado no varejo são a renda, o preço do etanol hidratado combustível no varejo e o do etanol anidro no segmento produtor. Já com relação às vendas de gasolina C no varejo, o principal determinante é a renda, enquanto as demais variáveis pouco contribuem para explicar suas variações. Finalmente, a análise da previsão dentro da amostra para o preço do etanol hidratado no segmento varejista sugere que este preço assumiria um patamar mais elevado, não fosse a atual política de controle de preços dos derivados do petróleo adotada no Brasil. Nas duas últimas safras do período estudado, o preço praticado está, em média, 23,7% abaixo do previsto pelo modelo estimado neste estudo. Vale ressaltar que o modelo estimado capta o padrão médio do comportamento da série, dados os fundamentos de mercado considerados, os quais explicam pelo menos 76% das variações do preço do etanol hidratado no varejo.
The main objective of this study was to estimate an analytical model to explain the relationship between the markets of hydrated ethanol fuel and gasoline C, including effects of other factors such as sugar prices in the domestic and the International markets and income. Because of its ability to capture dynamic effects, the Auto-regression Model with Vector Error Correction VEC was used. Analysis of the demand function showed ethanol fuel consumption significantly responds to contemporary variations of its price and gasoline price, replacement product in this market segment. Regarding the demand for gasoline C, it appears that sales respond less to its price and ethanol price. In general, analysis of the response functions to impulses allows to verify that the effect of unanticipated shocks on model variables are of short duration and disappears, in most cases, after three months. Income proved to be important in ethanol and gasoline C consumption. An exogenous shock in the international sugar price results in a large effect on the product price in the domestic market. Therefore, a shock in the domestic sugar price has a significant impact on the anhydrous ethanol price (accumulated elasticity of 0.57), once these products compete for raw material in the sector. Given that this price represents a proxy variable for the hydrous ethanol price for the industry, 60% of the price in this segment is transmitted to the fuel price in the retail market. A decomposition analysis of forecast error variance showed that the variable with greater impact on the hydrated ethanol fuel price in the retail market is the anhydrous ethanol price (proxy of the hydrated ethanol price in the industry). The main determinants of hydrated ethanol sales in the retail market are the income, the hydrated ethanol fuel price and the anhydrous ethanol fuel price in the industry. Gasoline C sales in the retail market are mostly determined by income, while the other variables contribute little to explain its variations. Finally, the analysis of the in-sample forecast for the hydrated ethanol price in the retail market suggests that this price would assume a higher level, if there were not the current policy of controlling prices of petroleum derivatives adopted in Brazil. In the last two seasons of the analysis, the price was on average 23.7% below that predicted by the model estimated in this study. It is noteworthy that the estimated model captures the average standard of the series, given the market fundaments considered, which explain at least 76% of the variations in the hydrated ethanol price in the retail market.

O objetivo desta tese é analisar a influência do preço dos alimentos sobre o crescimento da obesidade no Brasil e avaliar os efeitos de uma política baseada no preço como instrumento de prevenção da obesidade. Essas questões foram analisadas em três ensaios que utilizam da estrutura econômica, baseada no princípio de racionalidade econômica, para compreender as escolhas individuais quanto à ingestão e gasto calóricos e a dinâmica do ganho de peso dos brasileiros. O ensaio 1 identifica as principais mudanças no índice de massa corporal (IMC) dos brasileiros e estima a contribuição dos preços dos alimentos a partir dos métodos de distribuição relativa e de decomposição contrafactual. Verificou-se que, concomitante ao aumento da obesidade, um deslocamento para a direita da distribuição do IMC revelando: a) uma maior densidade de indivíduos nas regiões de sobrepeso e obesidade; e b) um aumento do IMC mediano uma maior dispersão em torno deste. Os resultados indicaram que o aumento de preço observado entre 2002 e 2009 foi importante para conter o avanço da obesidade. Contudo, o efeito dessa variação (efeito nível) foi inferior àquele verificado para a mudança do impacto dos alimentos sobre o IMC (efeito estrutura). Os preços de alimentos como refrigerantes, carne e leite integral mostraram-se bastante significativos. Por outro lado, a renda e os anos de estudo contribuíram positivamente para o aumento do IMC no período analisado. Considerando os efeitos obtidos para o preço de refrigerantes sobre o IMC, bem como sua associação positiva do consumo desta bebida com obesidade, os ensaios 2 e 3 avaliaram os efeitos individuais e agregados, respectivamente, da adoção uma política de saúde baseada no aumento de impostos sobre bebidas açucaradas. No ensaio 2, adotou-se o modelo de duas partes para estimar as elasticidades preço demanda, as quais indicaram que o aumento do preço de bebidas açucaradas (refrigerantes e sucos) reduz o consumo, especialmente dos grupos que mais consomem destas bebidas. O resultado sobre o peso apresentou magnitude modesta, porém esta medida mostrou-se relevante na prevenção da obesidade, dado que maiores perdas de peso foram observadas na faixa próxima ao IMC correspondente à obesidade. Os efeitos em termos agregados foram simulados a partir do modelo de preços derivado da matriz de insumo produto, e os resultados mostram que uma política tributária sobre refrigerantes tende a gerar poucos efeitos adversos para a economia, com redução da produção do referido setor e daqueles diretamente inter-relacionados sendo compensada pelo aumento na produção de outros setores. O mesmo foi observado para o emprego, que apresentou variação positiva. No que se refere ao consumo, dado que em termos individuais o aumento tributário de 10% contribui para reduzir o consumo em 6,1%, a despesa de consumo agregado das famílias sofreria redução de 2,1%, com maior redução verificada na faixa de renda intermediária. Diante disso, conclui-se que a redução no preço dos alimentos mais calóricos observada nos últimos anos teve impacto sobre o peso dos brasileiros, e portanto, poderia ser levada em consideração na estruturação de políticas públicas para o combate à obesidade.
The objective of this thesis is to analyze the influence of the price of food on the growth of obesity in Brazil and to assess the effects of a policy based on price as a prevention instrument against obesity. These issues were analyzed in three essays that make use of the economic structure, based on the principle of economic rationality, in order to understand individual choices about calorie intake and expenditure and the dynamics of weight gain of Brazilians. Essay 1 identifies the main changes in Body Mass Index (BMI) of Brazilians and estimates the contribution of food prices from the relative distribution method and of counterfactual decomposition. It was verified that, concomitant to the increase in obesity, there is a shift towards the right of the BMI distribution revealing: a) a greater density of individuals in the regions of overweight and obesity; and b) an increase of the medium BMI a major dispersion around this. The results indicated that the price increases observed between 2002 and 2009 were important to contain the advance of obesity. However, the effect of that variation (level effect) was lower than that observed for the change of the impact of food on BMI (structure effect). The prices of foods such as soft drinks, meat and whole milk showed to be quite significant. On the other hand, income and years of study contributed positively for the increase of the BMI in the analyzed period. Considering the effect obtained for the price of soft drinks on BMI, as well as the positive association of consumption of this type of beverage with obesity, essays 2 and 3 evaluated the individual and aggregate effects, respectively, of the adoption of a health policy based on the increase of taxes on sugary drinks. In essay 2, the two part model was adopted in order to estimate the price-demand elasticity, which indicated that the price increase of sugary drinks (soft drinks and juices) reduce the consumption, especially of the groups that most consume these beverages. The result on weight presented a modest magnitude; however this measure showed to be relevant in the prevention of obesity, since the greater weight losses were observed in the group nearest to the BMI corresponding to obesity. The effects in aggregate terms were simulated parting from the price model derived from the product input matrix, and the results show that a tax policy on soft drinks tends to generate few adverse effects for the economy, with a production reduction of that sector and those directly interrelated being offset by increased production in other sectors. The same was observed for employment, which presented a positive variation. Regarding consumption, since in individual terms the 10% tributary increase contributed to reduce consumption in 6,1%, the aggregate consumption expenditure of households would suffer a reduction of 2.1%, with greater reductions observed in the middle-income range. Therefore, it is concluded that the reduction in the price of high-calorie foods observed in recent years has had an impact on the weight of Brazilians, and therefore, could be taken into account in the structuring of public policies for the fight against obesity.

Na trajetória da economia mundial, destaca-se a importância do agronegócio, que exerce um papel essencial no desenvolvimento econômico e social dos países, devido principalmente à sua capacidade de geração de renda e empregos. Entretanto, o agronegócio possui um obstáculo para a sua sustentabilidade, que é sua natureza cíclica, sofrendo influências de vários fatores de mercado e apresentando elevada volatilidade nos preços das commodities. Nesse sentido, vê-se a necessidade de explorar o aspecto cíclico dos preços das commodities, com o intuito de captar a dinâmica dos fatores de mercado que influenciam a formação do preço, para o seu monitoramento antecipado. Dentro desse contexto, o objetivo do presente estudo foi propor o desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta para prever o comportamento dos ciclos de crescimento e retração de uma commodity, especificamente o açúcar, com base no modelo de indicador antecedente. Para isso, foi construído, primeiramente, o ciclo de preços agrícolas, com base nos ciclos de negócios e na exposição das estruturas que representam os principais fatores de alteração nos preços das commodities: econômica, fundamentalista, climática e relacionada. O próximo passo foi datar os pontos de mudança do preço do açúcar, utilizando um modelo de cadeia de Markov e confrontando seus resultados com os acontecimentos históricos do setor. Posteriormente, um modelo de fator dinâmico foi utilizado para extrair movimentos cíclicos comuns a um conjunto de variáveis que apresentam poder de previsão, fora de amostra, com relação ao preço do açúcar. Como resultado, foram encontrados três indicadores antecedentes, que sinalizaram consistentemente a maioria dos picos e vales do ciclo do preço do açúcar, num horizonte de dois anos de antecedência. Cada indicador selecionado é composto por uma combinação linear entre os coeficientes e quatro variáveis independentes, as quais representam, respectivamente, as estruturas setoriais analisadas: fundamentalista, econômica, climática e relacionada. Em seguida, os indicadores foram combinados com o preço em um vetor bivariado auto-regressivo para obter previsões lineares do preço da commodity açúcar. As previsões obtidas revelam que os indicadores apresentaram um desempenho de previsão bem superior ao do modelo base, em todos os horizontes, e muito próximo aos valores reais dos preços. Portanto, da análise de previsão de pontos de mudança e de previsão linear, conclui-se que os indicadores antecedentes da commodity açúcar (IAC) constituem-se em um instrumento informativo para sinalizar o comportamento futuro do preço do açúcar, mesmo quando apenas dados preliminares e não revisados estão disponíveis. A ferramenta proposta, além de servir como um instrumento para compreender a natureza das flutuações dos preços das commodities, pretende tornar-se fonte de subsídios para o projeto de diretrizes, ações e formulação de estratégias de desenvolvimento, tanto no âmbito das políticas públicas, quanto daquelas iniciativas que deveriam ser adotadas pelo setor privado, servindo como um instrumento essencial para o planejamento das instituições integrantes do agronegócio.
In the course of the world economy, underscoring the importance of agribusiness, which plays a key role in economic and social development of countries, mainly due to its ability to generate income and jobs. However, agribusiness has an obstacle to its sustainability, which is its cyclical nature, is influenced by various market factors and a very high volatility in commodity prices. In this sense, we see the need to explore the cyclical aspect of commodity prices, in order to capture the dynamics of market factors that influence the pricing for its monitoring anticipated. Within this context, the objective of this study was to propose the development of a tool to predict the behavior of cycles of growth and shrinkage of a commodity, specifically sugar, based on the type of leading indicator. For that was built first, the cycle of agricultural prices, based on business cycles and exposure of the structures that represent the main factors of change in commodity prices: economic fundamentalism, climate and related. The next step was dating the turning points of the price of sugar, using a model of Markov chain, comparing their results with historical events in the industry. Subsequently, a dynamic factor model was used to extract common cyclical movements in a set of variables that have predictive power, out of the sample to the price of sugar. As a result, there were three leading indicators, which signaled consistently most of the peaks and valleys of the cycle of the price of sugar, a horizon of two years in advance. Each indicator selected is composed of a linear combination of the coefficients and four independent variables, which represent, respectively, industry structures analyzed: fundamentalist, economic, climate and related. Then, the indicators were combined with the price in a bivariate vector autoregressive forecasts for linear price of crude sugar. The predictions show that the indicators showed a predictive performance far superior to the base model at all horizons, and very close to the actual values of prices. Therefore, the analysis of forecasting turning points and linear prediction, it is concluded that the leading indicators of crude sugar (IAC) is based on an informative tool for signaling future behavior of the price of sugar, even when only preliminary data not reviewed are available. The proposed tool, besides serving as a tool to understand the nature of fluctuations in commodity prices, hopes to become a source of input for the draft guidelines, actions and formulation of development strategies, both in the public policies and those initiatives that should be adopted by the private sector, serving as an essential tool for planning of institutions of agribusiness.

No começo da década de 1990 deu-se início ao processo de desregulamentação dos preços dos produtos do setor sucroalcooleiro através da liberação de seus preços. Neste contexto, esses preços passaram a ser determinados de acordo com as regras de livre mercado. Desde então, o setor sucroalcooleiro tem passado por profundas transformações num período relativamente curto de tempo. Neste trabalho buscou-se analisar a transmissão de preços entre os mercados dos principais produtos do setor sucroalcooleiro do Estado de São Paulo. Determinou-se a intensidade e a duração em que as oscilações de preços são transmitidas de um nível de mercado para outro e de um produto para outro do mesmo nível de mercado. A análise compreendeu o período de maio de 1998 a junho de 2002. O modelo proposto foi implementado utilizando-se testes de raiz unitária de Dickey-Fuller Aumentado (ADF), de co-integração de Johansen e método de Auto-Regressão Vetorial com Correção de Erro (VEC). Os resultados apontam para as inter-relações contemporâneas entre os preços do açúcar cristal industrial no mercado interno e o recebido pela exportação e entre os preços do açúcar cristal empacotado ao produtor e ao varejo. O preço do álcool anidro, por sua vez, não explica contemporaneamente os preços dos açúcares cristal industrial e exportado. Nas decomposições das variâncias dos erros de previsão, observa-se a quase total independência do preço do açúcar cristal industrial, o relacionamento do álcool anidro com o preço do açúcar cristal industrial e com o preço do açúcar cristal empacotado ao produtor. O preço de exportação mostra-se relativamente independente em relação às variáveis de mercado interno. O preço do açúcar cristal empacotado ao produtor apresenta dependência do preço do açúcar cristal industrial e do preço do açúcar cristal empacotado ao varejo. Para o mercado varejista do açúcar cristal empacotado, a quase totalidade das variações de seus preços são explicadas pela própria variável e pelo preço do mercado produtor. Nas funções de impulso-resposta, os resultados mostram que choque no preço do açúcar cristal industrial causa impacto positivo sobre os preços do álcool anidro e do açúcar cristal empacotado ao produtor com um período de defasagem. Choque no preço do álcool anidro impacta positivamente os preços do açúcar cristal industrial e do cristal exportado apenas no quarto período após o choque. Choque no preço do açúcar cristal exportado, praticamente não causa impacto nos preços de mercado interno. O choque no preço do açúcar cristal empacotado ao produtor tem influência sobre os preços dos açúcares cristal industrial e cristal empacotado ao varejo com um período de defasagem e sobre o preço do açúcar cristal exportado no quarto período. Choque no preço do mercado varejista do açúcar cristal empacotado, ao contrário do que se esperava, causa impacto negativo sobre os preços dos açúcares cristal industrial e cristal empacotado ao produtor. Em termos gerais, os resultados apontam para inter-relações entre os preços dos produtos analisados, uma vez que choque em quaisquer das variáveis tem impacto na mesma direção sobre as demais, principalmente após um pequeno período de tempo de ajustamento. No entanto, essas relações não apresentaram-se tão expressivas quanto se esperava.
In the early 1990's it was started the price deregulation process of products of sugar-ethanol sector through the exemption of its prices. In this context, these prices started to be determined according to regulations of a free market. Since then, the sugar-ethanol sector has undergone profound changes in a considerably short period of time. This study aims to analyze price transmission among markets of main products of the sugar-ethanol sector in São Paulo State. It was determined the intensity and the duration in which price fluctuations are transmitted from a level of market to another and from one product to another of the same level. The analysis was carried out during the period of May 1998 and June 2002. The proposed model was implemented by making use of tests for unit root of Augmented Dickey-Fulley (ADF), of co-integration of Johansen and the method of Vector Auto-Regression with Error Correction (VEC). Results point to contemporary inter-relations among industrial crystal sugar prices in the domestic market and the market derived from exportation and among the prices of packed crystal sugar to producer and to retailing. The anhydrous ethanol price does not explain contemporarily the prices of industrial crystal and exported sugar. In the decomposition of forecast errors variance, it is noted the almost entire independence of the industrial crystal sugar price, the relating of anhydrous ethanol price to the industrial crystal sugar price and to the packed crystal sugar price to producer. The prices for exportation remain relatively independent from the variances of the domestic market. The price of packed crystal sugar to producer reveals dependency to the price of industrial crystal sugar and to packed crystal sugar to retailing. To the retail market the packed crystal sugar, almost all of its price variations are explained by the variable itself and by the producer's operating market price. In the impulse-response functions, results show that shocks to the industrial crystal sugar price causes a positive impact to the prices of anhydrous ethanol and of packed crystal sugar to producer with a time gap. Shocks to the anhydrous ethanol price causes a positive impact to the prices of industrial crystal sugar and to the exported crystal sugar only in fourth period after the shock. Shocks to exported crystal sugar price, basically does not cause any impact to the domestic market. The shock to the packed crystal sugar to producer has influence on the prices of industrial crystal and packed crystal sugar to retailing with a time gap and on the exported crystal sugar price in the fourth period. The shock to the packed crystal sugar price in the retail market causes a negative impact to the price of industrial crystal and packed sugar to producer. In general terms, results point to inter-relations among the prices of the products studied, once shocks to any of the variables lead to impacts in the direction to the others, specially after a short adjusting time. However, these relations did not reveal as expressive as expected.

Final work of University Postgraduate Studies, 73 Pages, 19 Figures, 10 Tables, 51 References, 4 Appendixes, in Lithuanian.Research aim – research and evaluate the impact of European Union Sugar Reform on Sugar Sector in Lithuania.Research methods – analysis and synthesis of scientific literature and EU law acts, statistical – analytical, questioning, graphical interpretation of data, etc. Studying scientific and periodical literature of Lithuania and foreign authors, there were indicated tendency and dynamics indicators in sugar sector, analyzed its regulation mechanism and impact of reform in organization of sugar market to development of sugar sector in Lithuania.

Com mais de metade de sua produção exportada e participação de aproximadamente um terço do mercado mundial, atualmente o Brasil é o maior exportador de açúcar e, portanto, espera-se que os preços do mercado físico do açúcar no Brasil apresentem algum grau de relacionamento os preços internacionais desta commodity, que são representados pelas cotações dos contratos futuros das bolsas de Nova Iorque (NYBOT) e de Londres (LIFFE) – primeiros vencimentos. No presente estudo são analisadas as relações entre os logaritmos das médias semanais dos preços domésticos de açúcar, representados pelo preço do Estado de São Paulo, principal produtor nacional, e preços internacionais convertidos em moeda brasileira. Utilizando os critérios de Akaike e Schwarz, foi determinado o número de defasagens auto-regressivas necessárias para ajustar modelos com a finalidade de testar a existência de raiz unitária, cujos resultados apontam para a estacionariedade das séries em torno de uma tendência determinista. A partir dos resíduos obtidos na estimação de modelos univariados auto-regressivos para cada variável, foram obtidas as funções de correlação cruzada (FCC) para cada par de variáveis usado no teste de causalidade. Os resultados das FCCs apontam tanto a existência de relação contemporânea significativa, como causalidade dos preços das bolsas internacionais para os preços domésticos do açúcar, sendo mais expressiva a relação causal das cotações dos contratos futuros da bolsa de Nova Iorque para os preços do mercado físico do açúcar no Brasil. Com base nesses resultados, foram especificados modelos que tinham como finalidade analisar o processo de transmissão de preços entre os mercados doméstico e internacional. Para evitar multicolinearidade, optou-se pela não inclusão de defasagens da variável dependente como explicativas nestes modelos e, para contornar problemas associados à correlação de resíduos nas equações ajustadas, as variáveis foram filtradas conforme a metodologia de Cochrane-Orcutt, fundamentando-se nos resultados da função de autocorrelação dos resíduos dos modelos ajustados de forma iterativa. As elasticidades obtidas nas funções de transmissão de preços indicam que os valores passados das cotações da NYBOT são referência para a formação de preço do mercado doméstico de açúcar, e que a influência contemporânea entre os preços das bolsas internacionais e o preço doméstico é pequena. Como a participação do Brasil no mercado internacional de açúcar é elevada, espera-se que de alguma maneira aspectos relativos ao mercado doméstico brasileiro dessa commodity afetem os preços internacionais. Dessa forma, buscou-se analisar o impacto que a produção brasileira de açúcar, a qual define o potencial de exportação dessa commodity pelo Brasil, tem sobre a formação do preço no mercado internacional. Para isso foi ajustada uma função utilizando como representativo do preço de açúcar no mercado internacional a média das cotações do contrato futuro de açúcar na bolsa de Nova Iorque no ano-safra internacional, isto é, entre setembro de um ano a agosto do subseqüente. Como variáveis explicativas foram considerados: o estoque inicial de cada ano-safra, a produção de açúcar do Brasil e a produção de açúcar dos demais países do mundo, também por ano-safra. Os resultados apontam que o direcionamento de mais matéria-prima para a produção de açúcar, considerando as baixas taxas de crescimento do consumo desse produto no mercado interno, tem efeito negativo e significativo no nível de preço a vigorar no mercado internacional. Isto poderia comprometer a rentabilidade do setor, não só porque os preços do açúcar exportado cairiam, mas também porque os menores preços do mercado internacional estariam afetando os recebidos pelo açúcar comercializado no mercado interno.
With more than a half of its production exported and about 30% of market share in the world sugar market, nowadays Brazil is the world’s leading exporter of sugar. So, it’s expected that the sugar physical prices in the State of São Paulo (CEPEA), Brazil´s leading production region, have any sort of relation with the international prices of this commodity. These international prices are represented by the nearby quotes of the sugar contracts at New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) and at London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), both multiplied by the Brazilian currency exchange rate. The present study analyses the relations between the logarithms of the domestic and international weekly means of sugar prices. The number of auto-regressive lags necessaries to ajust models was determined by Akaike and Scharwz criterions, which objective was to test the existence of unit root. The results pointed to stationary series around deterministic trends. Through the residual data of auto-regressive univariated models that were estimated to each of the variables, it was obtained the cross correlation function (CCF) to each pair of variables to which the causality was tested. The CCF results indicated a significative contemporany relation between the variables and also causality from the international quotes to State of São Paulo domestic prices, mainly from NYBOT. Based on these results, it was obtained the number of lags of the explicative variable to specify the transmission price models between domestic and international sugar prices. To prevent multicolinearity, it was opted to not include lags of dependent variable as explicative variables, and, to skirt problems related to the correlation in the residual data in the adjusted equations, the variables were filtered by the Cochrane-Orcutt methodology, following the indicatives of the autocorrelation function (ACF) of the residual data from adjusted models in an interactive form. The elasticities obtained in the price transmission functions indicated that the past values of NYBOT quotes are reference to CEPEA prices, and that the contemporany influence between domestic and international prices is small. Considering that Brazilian share in the sugar international market is expressive, it’s expected that aspects related to Brazilian domestic market should cause any affect in the international prices level. So, to analyze the impact that Brazilian production of sugar, which defines the potential of exportation of this commodity for Brazil, has on the formation of the price in the international market, it was adjusted a function that uses as representative of the sugar price in the international market the mean of NYBOT nearby quotes between September to August (of the subsequent year). The variables international beginning stocks, Brazilian sugar production and rest of the world sugar production, all of them measured in the international sugar-marketing year, were considered as explicative ones. The results pointed that an increase in the Brazilian sugar cane production (in order to produce sugar), considering the low rates of the consumption evolution in the Brazilian domestic market, would have a negative and significant effect in the international sugar prices level. This event would affect the yield of sugar sector, not only because the sugar international price would decrease, but also because the lower prices in the international market would reduce the Brazilian domestic prices.

Objetivos: Estudar a influência que a renda das famílias e os preços dos alimentos exercem sobre a aquisição de alimentos mais saudáveis (frutas e hortaliças, F&H) e menos saudáveis (bebidas adoçadas, BA). Metodologia: Utilizaram-se dados sobre aquisição de alimentos coletados pela Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares (POF), realizada entre julho de 2002 e junho de 2003 pelo IBGE em uma amostra probabilística de 48.470 domicílios do país. A influência da renda familiar e do preço de frutas e hortaliças e de bebidas adoçadas sobre seu consumo foi estudada empregando-se técnicas de análise de regressão múltipa para estimação de coeficientes de elasticidade, controlando-se variáveis sócio-demográficas e preço dos demais alimentos. Resultados: Com a diminuição do preço de F&H haveria aumento da participação desses alimentos no total de aquisições: 10 por cento de redução nos preços de F&H aumentaria em 7,9 por cento sua participação no total calórico. Com o aumento da renda familiar também haveria aumento na participação calórica de F&H: 10 por cento de aumento na renda aumentaria em 2,7 por cento a participação de F&H no total calórico. O efeito dos aumentos de renda tendeu a ser menor nos estratos de maior renda. Haveria significativa redução na aquisição de bebidas adoçadas frente a aumentos no seu preço: para cada 10 por cento de aumento nos preços de bebidas adoçadas haveria uma redução de 8,4 por cento no consumo desses produtos. Aumentos na renda familiar também influenciariam o consumo de bebidas adoçadas, mas com efeito oposto e de magnitude inferior à metade do observado com o aumento de preços: para cada 10 por cento de aumento na renda familiar haveria um aumento de 4,1 por cento no consumo de bebidas adoçadas. Conclusões: Políticas de ajuste de preços como a imposição ou isenção de uma taxa podem ser utilizadas como ferramentas na promoção da alimentação saudável no país, seja estimulando o consumo de alimentos saudáveis ou desestimulando o consumo de não saudáveis
Objectives: To study the influence of family income and food prices on the acquisition of items that act as indicators of a healthy (fruits and vegetables, F&V) or an unhealthy (sugar-sweetened beverages, SSB) food intake. Methods: We used data from the Household Budget Survey (HBS) carried out by IBGE between July 2002 and June 2003 in a probabilistic sample of 48,470 Brazilian households. The influence of family income and the price of fruit and vegetables and sugar-sweetened beverages on its consumption was studied employing techniques multiple regression analysis to estimate elasticity coefficients, controlling for demographic variables and price of other foods. Results: Reducing the price of F&V would increase its participation on total food purchases: 10 per cent reduction in prices of F&V would increase by 7.9 per cent its share of total calories. The increase in family income would also increase the proportion of calories from F&V: 10 per cent increase in income would increase by 2.7 per cent the participation of F&V on total calories. The effect of a raise in income tended to be lower in higher income groups. On the other hand, an increase in the price of SSB would result in considerable reduction in its consumption: for every 10 per cent increase in the prices of SSB a reduction of 8.4 per cent in the consumption would be expected. Increases in income also influence the consumption of SSB, but having the opposite effect, and magnitude less than half that observed for the increase in prices: each 10 per cent increase in family income would increase by 4.1 per cent the consumption of SSB. Conclusions: Public policies aiming the adjustment of prices - as the imposition or exemption of a tax - can be used as a tool in promoting healthy eating in Brazil, either encouraging the consumption of healthy foods or discouraging the consumption of unhealthy products

This thesis consists of an introductory part and three papers. Paper [I] examines how taxes affect consumption of commodities that are detrimental to health and the environment. Specifically, this paper examines if a tax increase leads to a significantly larger change in consumption than a producer price change, which is referred to as the signaling effect from taxation. The analysis uses aggregated cross-sectional time series data and information on major legislation introductions in Sweden, Denmark and the United Kingdom from 1970 to 2009. We find the main result to be that the signaling effect is significant for “Electricity” in Sweden and Denmark and significant for “Electricity” and “Petrol” in the United Kingdom. Paper [II] examines how sin taxation changes long-term consumer behavior regarding commodities which are deemed harmful for both health and the environment. These include tobacco, alcoholic beverages, sugar and confectionary, household energy, and motor fuel. Specifically, we examine the signaling effect from taxation which is seen if a tax increase leads to a significantly larger change in consumption than a producer price change. The empirical analysis is conducted by a US panel data study, during the period 1988-2012 for the four US census regions, using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). We find the main result to be that the signaling effect from taxation is significant for tobacco as well as for electricity and motor fuel.    Paper [III] examines state and industry responses on consumption of cigarettes and petroleum in the United States from 1998-2012. Upon facing consumption choices, the consumer faces two competing sets of messages, one from the government and another from the industry. The objective of the state is to steer consumption in the right direction due to the harmful effects from consumption and asymmetric information among consumers. This is done mainly via taxation and state media expenditures. The industry, on the other hand, seeks to incentivize the public to ignore or reject state research and signals as well as maximizing net economic returns. This is mainly done via industry media and lobbying expenditures. We find that the main results indicate, for cigarettes, industrial media and lobbying expenditure is statistically significant on consumption. For petroleum, we find that producer prices, state media expenditure, and industrial lobbying expenditure are statistically significant on consumption.

Die Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit den Auswirkungen verschiedener Politikoptionen auf den Weltzuckermarkt. Dazu wird ein räumliches Preisgleichgewichtsmodell wie von Takayama und Judge vorgeschlagen mit hoher Abdeckung von Regionen und Politiken erstellt. Der Vorteil dieses Modelltyps gegenüber den in bisherigen Analysen verwendeten besteht in seiner Fähigkeit, die Annahme der Ursprungshomogenität (im Gegensatz zu Modellen, die auf dem Armington Ansatz basieren) mit der Möglichkeit zu kombinieren, bilaterale Handelsströme explizit abzubilden. Ein wesentlicher Nachteil ist die quasi-normative Natur des Ansatzes. Nach der Einführung wird zunächst in Kapitel zwei der Weltzuckermarkt detailliert beschrieben und von anderen Agrarmärkten abgegrenzt sowie die Anforderungen an ein Gleichgewichtsmodell des Weltzuckermarktes diskutiert. Dann wird im dritten Kapitel eine Übersicht über verschiedene in der Vergangenheit verwendete Modellansätze gegeben und deren Ergebnisse ausgewertet. Im vierten Kapitel wird ein Überblick die theoretische Entwicklung des Modellansatzes gegeben und schließlich das in der Dissertation verwendete Modell beschrieben. Das Modell umfasst 104 Zucker produzierende und 90 Zucker konsumierende Regionen. Nationale Handels- und Agrarpolitiken sowie eine Vielzahl regionaler und präferentieller Handelsabkommen sind im Modell berücksichtigt. Im zweiten Teil von Kapitel vier wird eine Analyse von vier Szenarien mit dem Modell durchgeführt. Diese umfassen eine Fortführung gegenwärtiger Politiken, ein WTO Abkommen, eine einseitige Liberalisierung des Zuckermarktes der EU sowie eine Liberalisierung der Zuckermärkte aller im Modell vertretenen Länder. Im Abschlusskapitel werden einige Kernergebnisse zusammengefasst und eine Weiterentwicklung des Ansatzes diskutiert. Hier wird insbesondere auf das Problem der Quasi-Normativität eingegangen.
The Dissertation at hand investigates the effects of different policy options on the world sugar market. A Spatial Price Equilibrium Model as suggested by Takayama and Judge is established. This model type has one considerable advantage over previously ap-plied types which is its ability to combine the assumption of homogeneous goods regardless of origin (as opposed to Armington-based models) with the possibility to model bilateral trade flows explicitly. One major drawback of the approach is that is behaves in part like a normative model. After the introductory chapter, a detailed description of the world sugar market and how it distinguishes from markets for other agricultural commodities is given. In this frame-work requirements of a valid equilibrium model of the world sugar market are discussed. In the third chapter various studies of the world sugar market based on equilibrium models are surveyed. In the chapter four the development of the approach of spatial equilibrium modeling finally the model applied in this dissertation are described The model covers 104 sugar pro-ducing and 90 sugar consuming regions. National agricultural and trade policies as well as numerous regional and preferential trade agreements are accounted for. In the second part of chapter four, four scenarios are simulated with the model. These are a reference scenario in which current policies are maintained, a WTO agreement, a unilateral liberalization of sugar policies on the part of the EU as well as a multilateral liberalization of the sugar markets of all countries. In the final chapter, some core results are summarized and further development of the applied approach especially possible solutions for the problem of quasi-normativity are dis-cussed.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisarse há relação de causalidade entre o preço de etanol e o preço do açúcar no mercado de alagoas utilizando a metodologia de Vetores Autoregressivos. A expansão da demanda do etanol no mundo é decorrente de uma preocupação cada vez mais crescente em substituir os combustíveis derivados do petróleo, na medida em que este constitui uma fonte energética não renovável. Outro fator que contribui para o aumento da demanda é a questão ambiental, uma vez que a maior utilização do etanol como combustível permitira uma redução dos gases causadores de efeito estufa. Aliado a esses fatores, a introdução dos veículos flex promoveu uma aumento do consumo de etanol nos períodos em que o preço deste combustível se mostra mais competitivo quando se compara com o preço da gasolina. Contudo o aumento da produção de etanol gerou uma mudança na relação entre os mercados de álcool e açúcar já que os dois são obtidos a partir da mesma matéria prima que é a cana de açúcar. Como resultado, foi encontrada uma relação de causalidade entre os preços do etanol e do açúcar em que o preço do açúcar afeta o preço do etanol, mas este não é capaz de afetar o preço do açúcar. Tal resultado aponta para um mercado de açúcar mais sólido e que é afetado por forças inerentes ao seu próprio mercado. No longo prazo, os preços do açúcar e do álcool sofrem aumento com um choque no preço do petróleo, sugerindo uma dependência das oscilações dessa commodity internacional. Portanto, a criação do novo mercado de bicombustível demonstrou ser um fenômeno recente e que consequentemente não afeta significativamente o mercado de açúcar.
This study aims to examine whether there is causal relationship between the price of ethanol and sugar prices in the Alagoas market using the methodology of Vector Autoregressive. The expansion of ethanol demand in the world is due to an increasingly growing concern in replacing petroleum-based fuels because this is not a renewable energy source. Another factor that contributes to the increased demand is the environmental issue, since the increased use of ethanol as fuel would allow a reduction of greenhouse gases. Besides these factors, the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles promoted an increased consumption of ethanol in periods when the price of this fuel is more competitive when compared to the price of gasoline. However the increase of ethanol production has generated a change in the relationship between ethanol and sugar markets since the two are taken from the same raw material is sugarcane. As a result, we found a causal relationship between the prices of ethanol and sugar where the price of sugar affects the price of ethanol, but the alcohol can not affect the price of sugar. This result points to a more solid sugar market that is affected by forces inherent in their own market. In the long run, prices of sugar and alcohol are suffering with an increase in oil price shock, suggesting a dependence on fluctuations of international commodity. Therefore, the creation of new biofuel market has proved to be a recent phenomenon and therefore does not significantly affect the market for sugar.

O objetivo principal do presente trabalho é analisar as séries de preços do álcool combustível, do açúcar e da gasolina, no intuito de investigar as relações entre eles. Neste sentido, as séries de preços individuais e os preços relativos foram analisados, utilizando-se testes econométricos para verificar a presença de raiz unitária. Apesar das séries de preços terem apresentando comportamento não estacionário, os preços relativos demonstraram estacionariedade. O valor de convergência do preço relativo do álcool e da gasolina (0,657412) se aproximou bastante da relação entre os preços estabelecida pela diferença na eficiência técnica desses dois combustíveis (0,7). Além disso, o estudo demonstrou que os preços do álcool combustível têm sua oscilação balizada pelos preços da gasolina, no varejo e do açúcar no atacado, determinando com isso uma faixa dentro da qual o preço deste produto oscila.
The main goal of this work is to analyze the price series of ethanol, sugar and gas in order to investigate the relationship between them. In this sense the individual price series and the relative ones where analyzed. For that we used econometric tests to verify the unit root presence. In spite of the individual price series being not stationary, the relative prices show stationarity. Ethanol and gas relative price convergence value (0,657412) got close to the relation between the established relative price by the difference of both fuels technical efficiency (0,7). Besides that the work has demonstrated that ethanol prices have its own range based on gas retail prices and sugar wholesale prices, determining this way a level where this product price ranges.

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Entre 1995 e 2015 ocorreu grande elevação na produção canavieira paulista, passando de aproximadamente 158 milhões de toneladas na safra 1995/96 para aproximadamente 368 milhões de toneladas na safra 2015/2016. O objetivo do trabalho foi o de utilizar a metodologia de dados em painel contendo os trinta 30 principais Escritórios de Desenvolvimento Rural do estado de São Paulo para mensurar as elasticidades do preço da cana-de-açúcar e o da carne bovina sobre a oferta e nas suas duas formas: área de corte e produtividade canavieira no estado de São Paulo e também nas regiões tradicionais: Norte, Central e Leste e nas regiões de expansão do estado: Oeste e Sudoeste do estado. As mensurações das elasticidades do preço da cana-de-açúcar defasadas mostraram - se significativas quanto ao impacto na oferta de cana-de-açúcar, na área plantada e na produtividade tanto no estado de São Paulo como nas regiões analisadas. Como esperado pela teoria econômica, o preço da cana-de-açúcar demonstrou impactar positivamente na oferta, elevações de preço geram elevações na produção de cana-de-açúcar. Para o estado de São Paulo, constatou-se influência de quatro defasagens no preço da cana-de-açúcar sobre a produção, área plantada e produtividade. A segunda defasagem apresentou maiores coeficientes para a produção e a área de respectivamente 0,21 para a produção e 0,12 para a área. Quanto à produtividade, a quarta defasagem apresentou maiores coeficientes. O preço de carne bovina apresentou elasticidade negativa para a oferta de cana-de-açúcar e área plantada na segunda defasagem de respectivamente -0,227 e -0,26. Portanto, reduções nos seus preços desencadeiam elevação na produção de cana-de-açúcar. Constatou-se ainda maiores impactos dos preços da cana-de-açúcar e da carne bovina nas regiões de expansão em relação em relação às regiões tradicionais.
Between 1995 and 2015, there was a great increase in sugarcane production in São Paulo, going from approximately 158 million tons in the 1995/96 harvest to approximately 368 million tons in the 2015/2016 harvest. The objective of this study was to use the panel data methodology of the thirty 30 main Rural Development Offices of the state of São Paulo to measure the elasticities of the price of sugarcane and that of beef on the supply and in the its two forms: area of sugarcane crop and productivity in the state of São Paulo and also in the traditional regions: North, Central and East and in the regions of expansion of the state: West and Southwest of the state. Measurements of lagged sugarcane price elasticities were significant in terms of impact on sugarcane supply, planted area, and productivity both in the state of São Paulo and in the regions analyzed. As expected by economic theory, the price of sugarcane has been shown to have a positive impact on supply, price increases lead to increases in the production of sugarcane. For the state of São Paulo, there was influence of four lags in the price of sugarcane on production, planted area and productivity. The second lag presented higher coefficients for the production and the area of respectively 0.21 for the production and 0.12 for the area. As to productivity, the fourth lag presented higher coefficients. The price of beef showed a negative elasticity for the supply of sugarcane and planted area in the second lag of -0.227 and -0.26 respectively. Therefore, reductions in their prices trigger an increase in the production of sugarcane. There were also higher impacts of sugarcane and beef prices in the expansion regions in relation to the traditional regions.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
In this research, the price transmission between international and Brazilian sugar market was analyzed, from January 2003 to May 2016. The principles of market integration, price transmission and the framework of the Law of One Price, using time series econometric models (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Granger causality, Johansen cointegration test, and variance decomposition of prediction errors) were used as a theoretical approach. The results indicated a long-term relationship between international and domestic sugar prices; however, it was not observed for exchange rate. Thus, in the long-term, a variation of 1% in the sugar international price implies a variation of 0.42% in the domestic price, resulting an inelastic relation. The results did not validate the Law of One Price.
Neste trabalho foi analisada a transmissão de preços entre os mercados internacional e brasileiro de açúcar, no período de janeiro de 2003 a maio de 2016. Como approach teórico foram utilizados os princípios da integração de mercado, da transmissão de preços e a abordagem da Lei do Preço Único, via modelos econométricos de séries temporais (teste Dickey-Fuller aumentado, causalidade de Granger, cointegração de Johansen, decomposição da variância dos erros de previsão). Os resultados indicaram relacionamento de longo prazo entre os preços internacionais e domésticos do açúcar, porém, o mesmo não se verificou com a taxa de câmbio. Assim, no longo prazo, uma variação de 1% no preço internacional do açúcar implica em uma variação 0,42% no preço doméstico, configurando uma relação inelástica. Os resultados não validaram a Lei do Preço Único.

Cancer is characterized as a genetic disease associated with acquired somatic mutations, a majority of which consist of only a single base change and are commonly referred to as somatic point mutations (SPM). Real-time quantitative polymerase-chain reaction (qPCR) techniques using allele specific (AS) probes or primers are widely used in genotyping assays to detect commonly known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP), and also have the potential to detect SPMs, provided the required analytical sensitivity and specificity can be realized. One strategy to establish the necessary performance is to introduce nucleotide analogs such as Locked Nucleic Acids (LNAs) into AS probes or primers; however the successful design requires a fundamental understanding of both the thermodynamics and kinetics of LNA-DNA heteroduplexes. Melting thermodynamic studies of DNA duplexes and LNA-DNA heteroduplexes were therefore carried out using both ultraviolet (UV) spectroscopy and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) to quantify the thermodynamics (ΔH⁰, ΔS⁰, ΔCp and Tm) associated with the helix-to-coil transition. Data collected on DNA duplexes and DNA-LNA heteroduplexes were used to introduce improvements in the “unified” nearest-neighbor model, and for the development of a new model, referred to as the Single Base Thermodynamic (SBT) model that accurately predicts the Tm for the melting of LNA-DNA heteroduplexes. The SBT model was extended and applied to PCR conditions to design LNA-bearing AS probes for qPCR assays to detect the clinically important SPMs KIT c.1799t>a (D816V) and JAK2 c.1849g>t (V617F), and were found to significantly outperform standard AS probes containing only DNA. The interaction of Taq polymerase with heteroduplexes formed between an LNA-bearing primer and a target template were also studied and results used to generate general rules for designing LNA-bearing AS primers capable of unequivocal detection of a rare mutant allele bearing a SPM. The method was then extended to allow qPCR detection by Plexor™ technology and applied to create an AS primer directed against the JAK2 V617F SPM that can detect one mutation in a background of more than 100,000 copies of the wild-type allele and which is now used by the Cancer Genetics Laboratory of the British Columbia Cancer Agency (BCCA) to analyze patient samples.

O objetivo desse trabalho foi estudar os métodos de determinação e de estimativa dos teores de fibra da cana-de-açúcar (Saccharum spp.) e de açúcares redutores no caldo de cana, análises de fundamental importância para o cálculo do teor de açúcar total recuperável (ATR), que é o parâmetro que rege o sistema atual de pagamento de cana do CONSECANA. Quanto ao teor de fibra da cana, foi desenvolvido um novo método, modificado do método original da prensa hidráulica, com o objetivo de corrigir o erro decorrente do uso do brix do caldo extraído como estimativa do teor de sólidos solúveis do caldo não extraído na prensagem (caldo residual no bagaço). Esse novo método diferiu significativamente do original, porém correlacionou-se muito bem com este, devido ao fato do brix do caldo extraído no final da prensagem (valor empregado no método modificado) correlacionar-se, com ajuste excelente, com o brix do caldo extraído em toda a prensagem (valor empregado no método original). Por isso, mesmo quando não é feita a medida do brix do caldo extraído no final da prensagem, é possível obter um valor de fibra mais próximo do real através de uma equação de regressão linear que correlaciona o método modificado com o original. Foram também testadas as correlações do teor de fibra da cana com o peso do bolo úmido (PBU) resultante da prensagem, a 250 kgf/cm2, de 500 g de cana desfibrada e homogeneizada; e as correlações do teor de fibra da cana com brix, pol, pureza e AR do caldo. Os parâmetros que melhor se correlacionaram com o teor de fibra da cana foram o brix e a pol do caldo; e os que apresentaram correlação mais fraca foram AR do caldo e PBU. Foram testados também, por regressão linear, os vários métodos possíveis de serem usados para estimativa do teor de fibra da cana. Entre as equações que correlacionam fibra com PBU (atual e antiga do CONSECANA, e a equação elaborada com os dados deste trabalho), a que melhor estimou o teor de fibra da cana foi a equação atual do CONSECANA. Foram testadas as correlações do teor de AR do caldo com pol, brix, pureza e com a diferença brix – pol do caldo, sendo que o parâmetro que melhor se correlacionou com AR foi a pureza, ratificando a metodologia atual do CONSECANA, que emprega esse parâmetro nas suas equações para estimativa do teor de AR no caldo. Entre as equações do CONSECANA, a antiga forneceu uma estimativa do teor de AR bem mais exata do que a equação atual, a qual subestimou-os. No que tange ao teor de fibra, a possibilidade de estimá-lo com base em brix ou em pol resulta na possibilidade de se tabelar o teor de ATR na cana em função do brix ou da pol, atendendo à grande demanda dos fornecedores de cana pela maior simplicidade no sistema de pagamento.
The objective of the present work was to study the methods of determination and estimation of fiber in sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) and reducing sugars (RS) in sugarcane juice. These are the most important analyses to calculate the Recoverable Total Sugar (RTS) which is the parameter that conducts the current system for sugarcane payment of the CONSECANA. Concerning the fiber content of sugarcane, a new method, modified from the original method of the hydraulical press, was developed with the objective of correcting the error resultant of the use of the brix of the extracted juice to estimate the content of soluble solids of the juice not extracted during the pressing (residual juice in the bagasse). This new method differed significantly from the original one. However it presented an accurate correlation with the original method because the brix of the juice extracted at the end of pressing (value took in account in the modified method) presented an excellent adjust of correlation with the brix of the juice extracted during the whole pressing (value took in account in the original method). So, even when the brix of the juice extracted at the end of pressing is not measured, it is possible to get a value of fiber content representative of the real one using an equation of linear regression that correlates the method modified with the original one. Correlations between sugarcane fiber and residual bagasse weight (RBW) resultant of pressing, at 250 kgf/cm2, 500 g of sugarcane sample prepared according to the CONSECANA procedures were tested. Correlations between sugarcane fiber and brix, pol, purity or AR of the sugarcane juice were also tested. The parameters that presented the best correlation with sugarcane fiber were brix and pol of sugarcane juice. The parameters RS and RBW did not present good adjusts of correlation with fiber. Using linear regression analyses some possible methods of estimation of fiber content were tested. Among the equations correlating fiber with RBW (CONSECANA’s current and precedent, and the equation elaborated based on the data of this work), the one that best estimated the sugarcane fiber was the CONSECANA’s current one. Correlations between RS and pol, brix, purity or the difference brix - pol, were also analysed. The parameter that presented the best correlation with RS was purity of sugarcane juice, which is the parameter of CONSECANA’s equation to estimate the RS content in sugarcane juice. CONSECANA’s precedent equation presented a more accurate estimation of RS content than the equation currently in use. CONSECANA’s current equation underestimated the values of RS. As regarding to fiber content, the possibility of estimating it based on brix or pol might result in tables of correlation between RTS and brix or pol. This would simplify the system for sugarcane payment and so satisfy the sugarcane suppliers.

O objetivo de estudo desta dissertação é o desenvolvimento de um modelo de planejamento agregado da produção que apóie as decisões de nível gerencial e de diretoria das usinas de açúcar e álcool no que tange às variedades de cana colhidas em cada semana, às compras de cana-de-açúcar de terceiros, ao tipo de transporte (próprio ou terceirizado) a se utilizar em cada semana, ao total de cana moída por semana para atendimento da demanda e aos processos (industrial e comercial) que se devem escolher para produzir e comercializar açúcar e álcool. As decisões devem ocorrer em função de preços nos mercados interno, externo e mercado futuro, do fluxo de caixa da empresa, da capacidade da usina para armazenar açúcar e álcool e da possibilidade de uso de estoque de terceiros. As decisões por compra de cana, escolha de processos e venda de produtos são tomadas semanalmente num horizonte móvel de planejamento de 52 semanas, que inclui o tempo de safra no centro-sul do Brasil (meados de março a meados de dezembro, aproximadamente 36 semanas) mais o período de entressafra (aproximadamente 16 semanas, de meados de dezembro a meados de março). A procura por melhores estratégias de comercialização de tal forma a auxiliar a tomada de decisões é uma necessidade constante dos empresários do setor, que muitas vezes são surpreendidos pelas variações de preços de açúcar e álcool no mercado interno, externo e mercado futuro. Na parte comercial, este trabalho utiliza o método Delphi de previsão de preços de açúcar e álcool que balizam as tomadas de decisão no planejamento e controle da produção das usinas de açúcar e álcool. Define-se Hedge como a operação financeira de proteger determinado ativo de uma empresa contra variações inesperadas de preços. Neste trabalho, utiliza-se um modelo de escolha de mix de produto para Hedge vinculado à lucratividade e minimização de risco denominado Modelo de Semi- Variância com análise de cenários de Markowitz. Nas decisões relacionadas com as partes agrícola, industrial e comercial, faz-se uso de um modelo de programação linear inteira mista e para resolvê-lo utiliza-se o software de programação matemática LINGO e suas interfaces com a planilha eletrônica Excel. Nas decisões vinculadas ao mix ótimo para o Hedge em cada semana, faz-se uso de um modelo de programação quadrática resolvido pelo LINGO e suas interfaces com a planilha eletrônica Excel. Um estudo de caso foi realizado numa usina de açúcar e álcool no município de Junqueirópolis (SP) para validar o modelo proposto.
The objective of study this dissertation is to develop a model of aggregate production planning to support the decisions of management and board level of sugar and alcohol plants in regard to varieties of cane harvested each week, purchasing cane of nonsugar, the type of transport (own or outsourced) to use each week, the total cane processed per week for taking care of the demand and processes (industrial and commercial) and that must be chosen to produce and sell sugar and alcohol. Decisions must occur in terms of domestic, foreign and future market prices, the company\'s cash flow and the capacity to store sugar and alcohol and the possibility of using stock to third parties. Decisions about buying cane, choice of processes and products for sale are made in a weekly mobile planning horizon of 52 weeks, which includes the time of harvest in central-southern Brazil (mid-March to mid-December, approximately 36 weeks) plus the off-season (approximately 16 weeks, from mid-December to mid March). The demand for better marketing strategies to help such decision making is a constant need for entrepreneurs in the sector, which are often surprised by the changes in prices of sugar and alcohol in the internal, external and future market. In the commercial part, this study uses the Delphi method of forecasting the price of sugar and alcohol that guides the decision-making in planning and controlling the production of sugar and alcohol plants. Hedging is defined as a financial transaction to protect certain assets of a business against unexpected changes in prices. In this work, it is used a model of choice of product mix for Hedge linked to profitability and minimizing risk named Model of Semi-Variance analysis with scenarios of Markowitz. In decisions related to the agricultural, industrial and commercial parts it is used a type of mixed integer linear programming and to solve it is used the mathematical programming software LINGO and its interface with Excel spreadsheets. In decisions related to the optimal mix for Hedge in each week, is used a quadratic programming model solved by LINGO and its interface with Excel spreadsheets. A case study was conducted in a sugar mill and alcohol in the city of Junqueirópolis (SP) to validate the proposed model.

JEL Classification C12, C22
O presente trabalho analisa o nível de integração entre os mercados moçambicano, sul-africano e internacional de açúcar. Utilizam-se os testes de raiz unitária Dickey-Fuller Aumentado (ADF), de cointegração de Johansen, Modelo Vectorial de Correcção de Erro (VEC) e teste de exogeneidade, para determinar a ordem de integração das variáveis, verificar a cointegração e determinar o número de vectores de cointegração. Finalmente, são impostas restrições ao modelo seleccionado para verificar a vigência da Lei do Preço Único e identificar as variáveis explicadas e explicativas. O trabalho resulta da necessidade de uma melhor percepção do mecanismo de transmissão de preços e da cadeia de valor do mercado nacional de açúcar com o mercado sul-africano e internacional, e tem como objectivo proporcionar informação sobre as relações de médio e longo prazos, entre os mercados de açúcar moçambicano, sul-africano e internacional, vigência ou não da lei do preço único entre os mercados, e ainda a caracterização da cadeia de valor do açúcar produzido em Moçambique. Os resultados mostram que no período em análise os mercados moçambicano e sul-africano estão integrados e que os preços de açúcar no mercado moçambicano são conduzidos pelos preços do açúcar do mercado sul-africano, verifica-se a Lei do Preço Único nos dois mercados. Existe também a integração entre os mercados sul-africano e internacional. Os preços de açúcar no mercado sul-africano são conduzidos pelos preços do açúcar do mercado internacional, sendo que a Lei do Preço Único é válida também nos dois mercados. Não se verifica a integração entre os mercados moçambicano e internacional. Os resultados podem ser explicados pela intervenção governamental na política de preços, a constante depreciação do Metical face ao Rand aliado ao facto de a África do Sul ser um dos principais parceiros económicos de Moçambique. A privatização das açucareiras moçambicanas que permitiu a entrada de accionistas que controlam o negócio do açúcar ao nível da África Austral, de certo modo contribuiu para estes resultados.
The present work analyses the level of integration between the South African, Mozambican and international sugar markets. We use Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests, Johansen cointegration test, Vectorial Error Correction Model and exogeneity tests, to determine the integration order of the variables, verify the cointegration as well as determine the number of cointegration vectors. Finally we impose restrictions to the selected model in order to verify whether the Law of One Price applies and identify the relevant variables. This study results from a need to a better understanding of price transmission mechanisms and the value chain of Mozambique’s sugar market with the South African and international sugar markets. This study intends to provide information with regard to: The medium and long term relationship between Mozambican, South African and international sugar markets, the observance the Law of One Price between the above mentioned markets, as well as the characterization of Mozambique’s sugar value chain. Results show that with reference to the studied period, Mozambican and South African markets are integrated, and Mozambique’s sugar prices are driven by South African sugar prices. Thus the Law of One Price is verified among these two markets. There is also integration among the South African market and international market. Sugar prices in South Africa are driven by international prices, thus the Law of One Price is valid among these two markets. There is no integration between Mozambican and international markets. The results can be explained by Government intervention with regards to price policy, the permanent depreciation of Metical (the local currency) with reference to the Rand (the South Africa), as well as the fact that South Africa is one of the most important economic partners of Mozambique. The privatization of the sugar industry in Mozambique that allowed the inflow of foreign investors, which presently control sugar business in the Southern Africa region, has contributed to these results.

碩士
國立臺灣科技大學
工業管理系
95
This study is with the study approach of the case, collect , put in order , analyse , and discuss the case study materials , sum up the result of study. This study focal point that ' the international sugar price is predicted and calculated with the domestic sugar price ' of study is as follows: (1)Influence the main factor of the world sugar price ups and downs trend. (2)Main sugar producing country of the world and consuming the supply and demand situation of the country. (3)Order at the time of the prediction of the world sugar price tendency, reduce the raw sugar and import the cost. (4)World sugar price tendency and domestic sugar supply and demand are concerned and analysed. (5)With the best production and marketing stock, steady domestic sugar supply and demand relation. (6)The domestic sugar price is decided by market supply and demand. (7)Exactness of simplifying the domestic sugar price and calculating. This study conclusion: (1)It is expected that the price of raw sugar will present the state of fluctuating by a wide margin in 2006/07 years (low point will be clear, the culmination is unstable), but the price of sugar will still be supported > Need the influence of the basic side. (2)It is expected that the less sugar price is consumed and increased in the future , domestic sugar consumption grows up in the space. (3)World sugar price in the most recent six years, the monthly average of the raw & white sugar price and tendency picture of predicted value are suitable for consulting . (4)The world sugar price tendency is predicted, it is low to buy a raw sugar from the entrance , reduce and refine cost and the best production and marketing stock, steady domestic price and equilibrium of supply and demand.

Zambia ranks as one of the lowest cost producers of sugar. However, Zambia’s domestic sugar price has been high and volatile and is substantially higher than the world price. This has raised concern among stakeholders and further raises questions about the efficient functioning of the market. The study sought to determine and explain efficiency and integration in Zambia’s sugar value chain by analysing price spreads, price formation, and price transmission through a price transmission and partial equilibrium model. The study hypothesised that the Zambian sugar market is both inefficient and it is not integrated with the world market. This was tested through the price transmission and partial equilibrium models. Price transmission is conceptually premised on the Law of One Price (LOP) which postulates that in a frictionless undistorted market, the difference between markets spatially separated should only be explained by transaction costs. To test the hypothesis long-run equilibrium between prices was tested through a series of cointegration tests and an Error Correction model (ECM) was built for cointegrating price series. Model simulations were run and tests for asymmetry for cointegrating price series were conducted. A partial equilibrium framework was developed to determine price formation for Zambia’s sugar market from a number of behavioural equations. The study establishes cointegration in the spatial price transmission (between world sugar prices and Zambia’s wholesale prices) and vertically (between the domestic wholesale prices and sugarcane prices). The ECM for the spatial price transmission reveals low integration and efficiency evidenced by the low speed of adjustment, the Error Correction Term (ECT) of -0.09 and the model simulation, which shows that it takes approximately 3 years for the markets to revert to long run equilibrium after experiencing a price shock. The study also establishes that the spatial price adjustment is asymmetric. The vertical price transmission analysis reveals that it is relatively more integrated and efficient as it has a higher speed of adjustment (ECT of 0.199) which is twice that of the spatial price transmission. The model simulation reveals that it takes about 1 year and 6 months to revert to long run equilibrium after experiencing a shock. The vertical price adjustment is also found to be symmetric. A negative short-run elasticity of -0.29 is found for the spatial price transmission while the long-run transmission is found to be inelastic (0.91 ) which is close to unitary elasticity. The short-run vertical transmission is found to be very inelastic (0.009 ) while the long-run transmission of 0.94 is similar to the spatial transmission (inelastic but close to unitary). Farm to Retail Price Spreads are found to be widening with growing volatility owing to the volatile nature of the Retail Value. While the Farm Value has been increasing, recent spikes experienced in the Retail Value have resulted in an overall widening of the Farm to Retail Price Spread. The partial equilibrium analysis indicates that the price formation in Zambia’s sugar market is determined by the world price through the export parity price, domestic demand, supply conditions as well as policy. The elasticity between Zambia’s sugar price and the export parity price is found to be unitary (1.09). The price space analysis reveals that although Zambia’s domestic price is correlated with the export parity prices it is trending closer to the import parity price. This suggests that there are distortions in the sugar market, which may include high transaction costs, high concentration in the market structure as well as inappropriate policies such as high taxation, high interest rates and a policy requiring fortification of all sugar with Vitamin A, which are driving the domestic price upwards to exceed the export parity price. The sugar baseline for Zambia is generated for 2012 to 2015 based on a number of assumptions in the exogenous variables. Sugar production domestic use and exports are on the rise while the domestic price rises in 2011, falling between 2013 and 2014 then rising in 2014 to 2015. Model simulation of the removal and/or modification of the policy requiring sugar fortification reveals that there is an increase in the flow of imports to about 25,000 tons per year. This results in a 3.2 per cent loss in production and a 6.1 per cent gain in exports while the domestic sugar price falls by 23.9 US Cents/kg (18.8 per cent). Thus Zambia gains in terms of increased consumer welfare and producer welfare because production losses are offset by revenue gains through exports since the world price also increases. The study recommends that transaction costs which include transportation costs, energy, taxation which are pushing the domestic price upwards need to be lowered. The study emphasises the need to promote investments in the sugar industry especially for smaller emerging sugar mills by lowering interest rates and taxes as well as a need to strengthen competition laws governing the industry which will protect consumers,would-be- investors and cane producers from uncompetitive pricing. It further recomments the lifting and /or modification of the barrier on imports of unfortified sugar but stresses that government can allow raw sugar imports which can be fortified in Zambia. A more open and undistorted sugar market in Zambia will result in a competitive, efficient and integrated market governed by market dynamics. Copyright
Dissertation (MSc(Agric))--University of Pretoria, 2012.
Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development
unrestricted

碩士
國立高雄應用科技大學
國際企業研究所
101
Application threshold vector error correction model to explore the transmission effect of the international price of sugar Recently, the prices of raw materials are rising and the issues about the international sugar prices are gradually noticed by many organizations around the world. Sugar which is used to food materials processing is a remarkable commodity in the international future market. Therefore, the aim of this article is to investigate whether the sugar prices will be affected by the exchange rate using data from the New York sugar prices in the ICE future market of America and the London sugar prices in the LIFFE future market of United Kingdom as well as the exchange rate between these two nations. First, this research applied the traditional time series method to examine the cointegration between the variables. In addition, this research adpots a nonlinear model, Threshold Vector Error Correction Model, proposed by Hansen and Seo (2002), to revisit the model. Results of this study show that the relationship of raw sugar prices in New York and London are negative, caused by the over expectation on the sugar prices in that examined time. This study finally provides investment strategy to the investors in international future market and viewpoints to the domestic sugar industry. Key Words：International Sugar Prices, Cointegration Test, TVECM Model.

Diese Dissertation beschreibt Marktverzerrungen auf mehreren Ebenen, die entweder aufgrund von Fehlfunktionen oder durch Interventionen politischer Art entstehen. Die Fehlfunktionen schließen einerseits Märkte mit imperfektem Wettbewerb, und andererseits Versagen auf anderweitig vollkommenen Märkten ein. Die Erstgenannten können durch eine starke Konzentration (beispielsweise aufgrund der geringen Größe des Marktes) verursacht werden, durch Ein- oder Austrittsbarrieren, heterogene Güter und Informationsasymmetrien. Zu den Gründen für Marktversagen gehören die Existenz von Externalitäten, Störungen auf anderen, verlinkten Märkten (z.B. die von Kleinbauern erfahrenen Kreditbeschränkungen), hohe Transaktionskosten, öffentliche Güter und Staatsversagen. Abhängig von den Definitionen unterschiedlicher Autoren kann die ungleiche Verteilung von Einkommen oder Vermögen auch als Versagen des Marktmechanismus verstanden werden. In dem Abschnitt dieser Arbeit der sich Marktstörungen widmet wurde der Fokus auf die Nachfrageseite gesetzt, wo die Marktkonzentration mit der Existenz von Monopsonen, Oligopsonen oder Monopsonistischem Wettbewerb assoziiert wird. Die zweite Klasse von Verzerrungen auf den hier betrachteten Märkten wird durch politische Interventionen verursacht. Diese können verschiedene Beweggründe haben, wie die Korrektur der oben beschriebenen Marktstörungen oder Umverteilung zwischen Bevölkerungsgruppen. Das Instrument, das jeweils eingesetzt wird, um Marktversagen zu korrigieren, hängt von der beobachteten Störung ab. Wenn externe Effekte vorhanden sind, kann beispielsweise eine Steuer (Subvention) angewendet werden, um die externen Kosten (Nutzen) zu internalisieren. Umverteilung kann ebenfalls auf verschiedene Arten erreicht werden, beispielsweise durch die Direktzahlungen auf der Ebene der einzelnen Betriebe welche die europäischen Landwirte unterstützen. Um die Ergebnisse von Mikro- und Makroperspektive systematisch zu kombinieren wird die Dimension der Skalen in den theoretischen Rahmen eingeführt. Dies ist notwendig, da sowohl die Auswirkungen von Mikroprozessen auf größere Zusammenhänge, als auch der Einfluss von Makroprozessen auf das Mikroniveau nicht immer offensichtlich sind. Dieser Rahmen wurde auf a) den lokalen Kautschukmarkt in Jambi, Indonesien, der durch starke Nachfragemarktmacht auf allen Ebenen gekennzeichnet ist und b) den europäischen Markt für Zucker angewandt, der stark reguliert ist. Kapitel zwei und drei liefern eine Analyse der Fehlfunktionen innerhalb des indonesischen Kautschukmarkts, von denen sich Kapitel zwei mit einer Mikro- und Kapitel drei mit der Mesoebene befasst. Die Analyse auf Mikroniveau zeigt, dass Kleinhändler von Gummi in Jambi Marktmacht ausüben. Der Preis, den sie ihren Lieferantinnen und Lieferanten bezahlen liegt deutlich unter den Wertgrenzprodukten dieses Inputs. Diese Marktmacht ist größer in abgelegenen Regionen und schwächer mit zunehmender Marktgröße. Auch auf dem größeren Maßstab der verarbeitenden Industrie existiert Marktmacht in beträchtlichem Umfang. Die Fabriken betreiben asymmetrische Preistransmission, was bedeutet, dass Preisänderungen auf dem Weltmarkt schneller auf die Inputpreise übertragen werden wenn der Weltmarktpreis sinkt als in Zeiten von Preissteigerungen. Die asymmetrische Übertragung der Preise allein führt zu einer jährlichen Umverteilung von rund drei Millionen US-Dollar in Jambi. Es lässt sich davon ausgehen, dass die gesamte Umverteilung aufgrund von Marktmacht deutlich größer ist, was aber mit den verfügbaren Daten nicht beurteilt werden kann. Das vierte Kapitel untersucht die Auswirkungen von politischen Interventionen auf der Mesoebene. Der Schwerpunkt der Analyse liegt auf den Ergebnissen einer Marktintervention auf Drittländer, nämlich die Senkung des Interventionspreises auf dem europäischen Zuckermarkt. Diese Preissenkung war von den Auswirkungen der bisherigen Politik, sowie Veränderungen des institutionellen Rahmens, in dem die gemeinsame Marktorganisation für Zucker eingebettet ist, motiviert. Dies sind die Einführung des ‚Everything But Arms‘ Abkommens, sowie Verpflichtungen die sich aus den multilateralen Verhandlungen im Rahmen der Welthandelsorganisation ergaben. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Afrikanischen, Karibischen und Pazifischen Staaten in der Tat negativ beeinflusst worden sind, das heißt dass die Erosion von Präferenzen stattgefunden hat. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit sind für künftige Entscheidungen darüber, ob und wie auf den Agrarmärkten interveniert werden soll, relevant. Die entscheidenden Fragen bestehen darin, wann zu intervenieren ist, und durch welche Maßnahme.

碩士
逢甲大學
建設碩士在職學位學程
107
Taiwan Sugar Corporation is a state-owned Enterprise, which is being in charge of the assets and supervising for citizens. It must be a reasonable price evaluation system whether land expropriation, the retrieved land by the cooperation developing, scattered land for sale, or valuation of superficies right. This study is based on the hedonic pricing model. And the data is from Actual Price registration of Department of Land Administration, which is according to the transactions of residential lands. A study on three tun districts in Taichung City from 2017 to July 2018. This research use the open data provided from the government and the application of geographic information systems(Quantum GIS). The databases of residential land transaction price are established to conduct multivariate statistical analysis. By the empirical research results that the suitable hedonic price model of land is the semilog function. There are some factors to affect land transaction price of three tun districts, which is including urban land consolidation、the situation of the street、land area、floor area ratio、the width of the road、urban land value、the amount of the parks and schools within 500M、the distance to the closest interchange、distance to the municipal center、distance to the MRT station. However the most highly significant factors are urban land consolidation、urban land value、distance from the municipal center、the situation of the street、the width of the road、the distance to the closest interchange.

RESUMO - Introdução: Os tributos sobre bebidas açucaradas vêm sendo frequentemente considerados como uma estratégia de contenção do crescimento da prevalência de obesidade em todo o mundo. No Brasil, uma proposta de lei de 2017 estabelece uma tributação de 20% sobre estas bebidas, mas ainda espera pela aprovação. Assim, este trabalho tem como objetivo estimar o impacto da introdução deste imposto na variação do IMC e da incidência de diabetes tipo 2 na população brasileira adulta. Metodologia: Este estudo foi realizado da seguinte forma: (i) um sistema de demanda quase ideal foi utilizado para estimar a elasticidade-preço das bebidas açucaradas utilizando a Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar 2017-2018. (ii) essas elasticidades-preço foram usadas para calcular variações no IMC, por meio de equações do balanço energético e do consumo de SSB (Inquérito de Vigilância de Fatores de Risco 2018). (iii) uma macrossimulação de Markov foi utilizada para estimar o impacto da variação no IMC na incidência de diabetes tipo II. Resultados: Encontrou-se uma elasticidade-preço de -1,10 para bebidas açucaradas, demonstrando sensibilidade do consumidor à variação de preço. Os cálculos efetuados apontaram para uma redução média do IMC de 1,37 Kg/m² e um potencial de 11.187 anos de vida ganhos em decorrência da redução de diabetes tipo 2 ao longo de um horizonte temporal de 5 anos de tributação no Brasil. Conclusão: Esse estudo demonstrou que um tributo de 20% sobre bebidas açucaradas teria efeito positivo sobre a saúde da população brasileira. Essa tributação auxiliaria os consumidores a reformular suas escolhas e alocar seu consumo em alternativas mais saudáveis.
ABSTRACT - Introduction: Worldwide, sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes are increasingly being implemented as a strategy for addressing the rising prevalence of obesity. In Brazil, a law drafted in 2017 proposed a 20% tax on SSB, but it is still waiting for approval. Thus, this study aims to estimate the impact of the introduction of a SSB tax on the variation of BMI and the incidence of type II diabetes in the adult Brazilian population. Methodology: This study was performed as follows: (i) an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) was used to estimate the price elasticity of sugary drinks using Brazilian Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2017-2018; (ii) these price elasticities were used to compute variations in BMI , through energy balance equations and the consumption of SSB (Risk Factors Surveillance survey 2018); (iii) a Markov macrosimulation was used to estimate the impact of the variation in the BMI on the incidence of type II diabetes. Results: A price elasticity of -1.10 was found for sugary drinks, demonstrating consumer sensitivity to price variation. The calculations made pointed to an average reduction of the BMI of 1.37 Kg/m² and a potential of 11,187 years of life gained as a result of the reduction of type II diabetes over a time horizon of 5 years of taxation in Brazil. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that a 20% tax on sugary drinks would have a positive effect on the health of the Brazilian population. This taxation would help consumers to reshape their choices and allocate their consumption to healthier alternatives.

Die vier Beiträge der vorliegenden Dissertationsschrift untersuchen das Entscheidungsverhalten von Landwirten in unterschiedlichen Entscheidungssituationen. Das übergeordnete Ziel ist es, die Präferenzstruktur und Zahlungsbereitschaft von Landwirten in den untersuchten Entscheidungssituationen zu analysieren, um so die Informationsgrundlage als Entscheidungsbasis für Politiker und Berater sowie der Landwirte selbst zu erweitern. Hierzu findet die Methode der Discrete Choice Experimente in allen vier Beiträgen Anwendung. Im Einzelnen werden in den Beiträgen folgende Forschungsfragen untersucht: Der erste Beitrag prüft welche Faktoren die Entscheidung von Landwirten beeinflussen, den Preis für ihr Erntegut ex ante abzusichern. Im zweiten Beitrag werden die Präferenzen von Landwirten für das Eingehen einer Kooperation unter expliziter Berücksichtigung von nicht-monetären Faktoren analysiert. Der dritte Beitrag geht der Frage nach, welche Rolle die finanzielle Flexibilität in Investitionsentscheidungen von Landwirten spielt. Wie Anbauverträge für Biogas-Zuckerrüben aus Sicht der anbauenden Landwirte ausgestaltet sein müssen, wird im vierten Beitrag geklärt.