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Hmamouche, Youssef. "Prédiction des séries temporelles larges". Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018AIXM0480.
Pełny tekst źródłaNowadays, storage and data processing systems are supposed to store and process large time series. As the number of variables observed increases very rapidly, their prediction becomes more and more complicated, and the use of all the variables poses problems for classical prediction models.Univariate prediction models are among the first models of prediction. To improve these models, the use of multiple variables has become common. Thus, multivariate models and become more and more used because they consider more information.With the increase of data related to each other, the application of multivariate models is also questionable. Because the use of all existing information does not necessarily lead to the best predictions. Therefore, the challenge in this situation is to find the most relevant factors among all available data relative to a target variable.In this thesis, we study this problem by presenting a detailed analysis of the proposed approaches in the literature. We address the problem of prediction and size reduction of massive data. We also discuss these approaches in the context of Big Data.The proposed approaches show promising and very competitive results compared to well-known algorithms, and lead to an improvement in the accuracy of the predictions on the data used.Then, we present our contributions, and propose a complete methodology for the prediction of wide time series. We also extend this methodology to big data via distributed computing and parallelism with an implementation of the prediction process proposed in the Hadoop / Spark environment
Hmamouche, Youssef. "Prédiction des séries temporelles larges". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Aix-Marseille, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018AIXM0480.
Pełny tekst źródłaNowadays, storage and data processing systems are supposed to store and process large time series. As the number of variables observed increases very rapidly, their prediction becomes more and more complicated, and the use of all the variables poses problems for classical prediction models.Univariate prediction models are among the first models of prediction. To improve these models, the use of multiple variables has become common. Thus, multivariate models and become more and more used because they consider more information.With the increase of data related to each other, the application of multivariate models is also questionable. Because the use of all existing information does not necessarily lead to the best predictions. Therefore, the challenge in this situation is to find the most relevant factors among all available data relative to a target variable.In this thesis, we study this problem by presenting a detailed analysis of the proposed approaches in the literature. We address the problem of prediction and size reduction of massive data. We also discuss these approaches in the context of Big Data.The proposed approaches show promising and very competitive results compared to well-known algorithms, and lead to an improvement in the accuracy of the predictions on the data used.Then, we present our contributions, and propose a complete methodology for the prediction of wide time series. We also extend this methodology to big data via distributed computing and parallelism with an implementation of the prediction process proposed in the Hadoop / Spark environment
Ziat, Ali Yazid. "Apprentissage de représentation pour la prédiction et la classification de séries temporelles". Thesis, Paris 6, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA066324/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis deals with the development of time series analysis methods. Our contributions focus on two tasks: time series forecasting and classification. Our first contribution presents a method of prediction and completion of multivariate and relational time series. The aim is to be able to simultaneously predict the evolution of a group of time series connected to each other according to a graph, as well as to complete the missing values in these series (which may correspond for example to a failure of a sensor during a given time interval). We propose to use representation learning techniques to forecast the evolution of the series while completing the missing values and taking into account the relationships that may exist between them. Extensions of this model are proposed and described: first in the context of the prediction of heterogeneous time series and then in the case of the prediction of time series with an expressed uncertainty. A prediction model of spatio-temporal series is then proposed, in which the relations between the different series can be expressed more generally, and where these can be learned.Finally, we are interested in the classification of time series. A joint model of metric learning and time-series classification is proposed and an experimental comparison is conducted
Ziat, Ali Yazid. "Apprentissage de représentation pour la prédiction et la classification de séries temporelles". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris 6, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA066324.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis deals with the development of time series analysis methods. Our contributions focus on two tasks: time series forecasting and classification. Our first contribution presents a method of prediction and completion of multivariate and relational time series. The aim is to be able to simultaneously predict the evolution of a group of time series connected to each other according to a graph, as well as to complete the missing values in these series (which may correspond for example to a failure of a sensor during a given time interval). We propose to use representation learning techniques to forecast the evolution of the series while completing the missing values and taking into account the relationships that may exist between them. Extensions of this model are proposed and described: first in the context of the prediction of heterogeneous time series and then in the case of the prediction of time series with an expressed uncertainty. A prediction model of spatio-temporal series is then proposed, in which the relations between the different series can be expressed more generally, and where these can be learned.Finally, we are interested in the classification of time series. A joint model of metric learning and time-series classification is proposed and an experimental comparison is conducted
Sànchez, Pérez Andrés. "Agrégation de prédicteurs pour des séries temporelles, optimalité dans un contexte localement stationnaire". Thesis, Paris, ENST, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015ENST0051/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis regroups our results on dependent time series prediction. The work is divided into three main chapters where we tackle different problems. The first one is the aggregation of predictors of Causal Bernoulli Shifts using a Bayesian approach. The second one is the aggregation of predictors of what we define as sub-linear processes. Locally stationary time varying autoregressive processes receive a particular attention; we investigate an adaptive prediction scheme for them. In the last main chapter we study the linear regression problem for a general class of locally stationary processes
Sànchez, Pérez Andrés. "Agrégation de prédicteurs pour des séries temporelles, optimalité dans un contexte localement stationnaire". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris, ENST, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015ENST0051.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis regroups our results on dependent time series prediction. The work is divided into three main chapters where we tackle different problems. The first one is the aggregation of predictors of Causal Bernoulli Shifts using a Bayesian approach. The second one is the aggregation of predictors of what we define as sub-linear processes. Locally stationary time varying autoregressive processes receive a particular attention; we investigate an adaptive prediction scheme for them. In the last main chapter we study the linear regression problem for a general class of locally stationary processes
Arnoux, Thibaud. "Prédiction d'interactions dans les flots de liens. Combiner les caractéristiques structurelles et temporelles". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Sorbonne université, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018SORUS229.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe link stream formalism represent an approach allowing to capture the system dynamic while providing a framework to understand the system's behavior. A link stream is a sequence of triplet (t,u,v) indicating that an interaction occurred between u and v at time t. The importance of the system's dynamic during the prediction places it at the crossroads of link prediction in graphs and time series prediction. We will explore several formalizations of the problem of prediction in link streams. In the following we will study the activity prediction, that is to say predicting the number of interactions occurring in the future between each pair of nodes during a given period. We introduce the protocol, allowing to combine the data characteristics to predict the activity. We study the behavior of our protocol during several experiments on four datasets et evaluate the prediction quality. We will look at how the introduction of pair of nodes classes allows to preserve the link diversity in the prediction while improving the prediction. Our goal is to define a general prediction framework allowing in-depth studies of the relationship between temporal and structural characteristics in prediction tasks
Çinar, Yagmur Gizem. "Prédiction de séquences basée sur des réseaux de neurones récurrents dans le contexte des séries temporelles et des sessions de recherche d'information". Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019GREAM079.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis investigates challenges of sequence prediction in different scenarios such as sequence prediction using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in the context of time series and information retrieval (IR) search sessions. Predicting the unknown values that follow some previously observed values is basically called sequence prediction.It is widely applicable to many domains where a sequential behavior is observed in the data. In this study, we focus on two different types of sequence prediction tasks: time series forecasting and next query prediction in an information retrieval search session.Time series often display pseudo-periods, i.e. time intervals with strong correlation between values of time series. Seasonal changes in weather time series or electricity usage at day and night time are some examples of pseudo-periods. In a forecasting scenario, pseudo-periods correspond to the difference between the positions of the output being predicted and specific inputs.In order to capture periods in RNNs, one needs a memory of the input sequence. Sequence-to-sequence RNNs (with attention mechanism) reuse specific (representations of) input values to predict output values. Sequence-to-sequence RNNs with an attention mechanism seem to be adequate for capturing periods. In this manner, we first explore the capability of an attention mechanism in that context. However, according to our initial analysis, a standard attention mechanism did not perform well to capture the periods. Therefore, we propose a period-aware content-based attention RNN model. This model is an extension of state-of-the-art sequence-to-sequence RNNs with attention mechanism and it is aimed to capture the periods in time series with or without missing values.Our experimental results with period-aware content-based attention RNNs show significant improvement on univariate and multivariate time series forecasting performance on several publicly available data sets.Another challenge in sequence prediction is the next query prediction. The next query prediction helps users to disambiguate their search query, to explore different aspects of the information they need or to form a precise and succint query that leads to higher retrieval performance. A search session is dynamic, and the information need of a user might change over a search session as a result of the search interactions. Furthermore, interactions of a user with a search engine influence the user's query reformulations. Considering this influence on the query formulations, we first analyze where the next query words come from? Using the analysis of the sources of query words, we propose two next query prediction approaches: a set view and a sequence view.The set view adapts a bag-of-words approach using a novel feature set defined based on the sources of next query words analysis. Here, the next query is predicted using learning to rank. The sequence view extends a hierarchical RNN model by considering the sources of next query words in the prediction. The sources of next query words are incorporated by using an attention mechanism on the interaction words. We have observed using sequence approach, a natural formulation of the problem, and exploiting all sources of evidence lead to better next query prediction
David, Etienne. "Time series forecasting models applied on large datasets with inclusion of external signals". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024IPPAS002.
Pełny tekst źródłaTime series forecasting is a widespread mathematical problem in numerous sectors becoming a real challenge for existing methods of the literature where large datasets gathering thousands of time series and external signals are considered. A concrete illustration of this issue can be find in the fashion industry where its actors try to anticipate the evolution of thousands of garments to create their collections, analysing influencers and early adopters behaviours to propose the fashion of tomorrow.Using this application as a common thread, we present three contributions exploring different answers regarding the time series forecasting problem where large datasets and external signals are considered. A first answer is proposed with the introduction of a new hybrid model and the publication of a large dataset gathering 10000 fashion time series and influencers external signals. A second approach is then studied with theoretical work done on hidden Markov models with external signals. Finally, a last answer is proposed with the introduction of a new method mixing the inner workings of hidden Markov model and neural networks.Results presented in this three contribution highlighted several elements of answer. Firstly, neural networks are decisive to deal with large datasets and they are particularly well designed to leverage external signals. Secondly, hidden Markov models with external signals are also strong methods that can capture complex dependencies between time series and their external signals. However, they fail at handling large datasets as a model has to be trained for each new time series. Finally, inspired by the striking results of hidden Markov models with external signals, we reveal that introducing hidden processes in neural-network-based models can help them explore large datasets more deeply, model a richer variety of behaviour and leverage more finely external signals
Andreux, Mathieu. "Foveal autoregressive neural time-series modeling". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PSLEE073.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis dissertation studies unsupervised time-series modelling. We first focus on the problem of linearly predicting future values of a time-series under the assumption of long-range dependencies, which requires to take into account a large past. We introduce a family of causal and foveal wavelets which project past values on a subspace which is adapted to the problem, thereby reducing the variance of the associated estimators. We then investigate under which conditions non-linear predictors exhibit better performances than linear ones. Time-series which admit a sparse time-frequency representation, such as audio ones, satisfy those requirements, and we propose a prediction algorithm using such a representation. The last problem we tackle is audio time-series synthesis. We propose a new generation method relying on a deep convolutional neural network, with an encoder-decoder architecture, which allows to synthesize new realistic signals. Contrary to state-of-the-art methods, we explicitly use time-frequency properties of sounds to define an encoder with the scattering transform, while the decoder is trained to solve an inverse problem in an adapted metric
Dridi, Aicha. "A novel efficient time series deep learning approach using classification, prediction and reinforcement : energy and telecom use case". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022IPPAS010.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe massive growth of sensors (temperature, humidity, accelerometer, position sensor) and mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, smartwatches) increases the amount of data generated explosively. This immense amount of data can be collected and managed. The work carried out during this thesis aims first to propose an approach that deals with a specific type of data, which are time series. First, we used classification methods based on convolutional neural networks and multilayer perceptrons to extract the relevant information. We then used recurrent neural networks to make the predictions. We treated several time series data: energy, cellular, and GPS taxi track data. We also investigated several other methods like as semantic compression and transfer learning. The two described methods above allow us for the first to transmit only the weight of the neural networks, or if an anomaly is detected, send the anomalous data. Transfer learning allows us to make good predictions even if the data is missing or noisy. These methods allowed us to set up dynamic anomaly detection mechanisms. The objective of the last part of the thesis is to develop and implement a resource management solution having as input the result of the previous phases. We used several methods to implement this resource management solution, such as reinforcement learning, exact resolution, or recurrent neural networks. The first application is the implementation of an energy management system. The second application is the management of the deployment of drones to assist cellular networks when an anomaly occurs
Nguyen, Thi Thu Tam. "Learning techniques for the load forecasting of parcel pick-up points". Electronic Thesis or Diss., université Paris-Saclay, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023UPASG034.
Pełny tekst źródłaPick-Up Points (PUP) represent an alternative delivery option for purchases from online retailers (Business-to-Customer, B2C) or online Customer-to-Customer (C2C) marketplaces. Parcels are delivered at a reduced cost to a PUP and wait until being picked up by customers or returned to the original warehouse if their sojourn time is over. When the chosen PUP is overloaded, the parcel may be refused and delivered to the next available PUP on the carrier tour. PUP load forecasting is an efficient method for the PUP management company (PMC) to better balance the load of each PUP and reduce the number of rerouted parcels. This thesis aims to describe the parcel flows in a PUP and to proposed models used to forecast the evolution of the load. For the PUP load associated with the B2C business, the parcel life-cycle has been taken into account in the forecasting process via models of the flow of parcel orders, the delivery delays, and the pick-up process. Model-driven and data-driven approaches are compared in terms of load-prediction accuracy. For the PUP load associated with the C2C business, the daily number of parcels dropped off with a given PUP as target is described by a Markov-Switching AutoRegressive model to account for the non-stationarity of the second-hand shopping activity. The life-cycle of each parcel is modeled by a Markov jump process. Model parameters are evaluated from previous parcel drop-off, delivery, and pick-up records. The probability mass function of the future load of a PUP is then evaluated using all information available on parcels with this PUP as target. In both cases, the proposed model-driven approaches give, for most of the cases, better forecasting performance, compared with the data-driven models, involving LSTM, Random forest, Holt-Winters, and SARIMA models, up to four days ahead in the B2C case and up to six days ahead in the C2C case. The first approach applied to the B2C parcel load yields an MAE of 3 parcels for the one-day ahead prediction and 8 parcels for the four-day ahead prediction. The second approach applied to the C2C parcel load yields an MAE of 5 parcels for the one-day ahead prediction and 8 parcels for the seven-day ahead prediction. These prediction horizons are consistent with the delivery delay associated with these parcels (1-3 days in the case of a B2C parcel and 4-5 days in the case of a C2C parcel). Future research directions aim at optimizing the prediction accuracy, especially in predicting future orders and studying a load-balancing approach to better share the load between PUPs
Barkaoui, Ahmed. "La désagrégation temporelle des séries d'observations économiques". Paris 10, 1995. http://www.theses.fr/1995PA100055.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis treats the problem encountered in econometric modeling when temporal observations on certain variables are available only in a temporally aggregated fora. The practical solution consists of estimating disaggregated series which are consistent with the observed data (temporal disaggregation procedures). This estimation can be done only by aggregated series or by using some related series -if available- observed in the suit time periods. The analysis of the principal procedures used in statistic organisms or in econometric software’s, has allowed to propose -for a given problem- a criterion of selection based on a priori known on time series and on statistical tests. The problem of temporal disaggregation was extended to the case of a vector of variables when the sum of the latters is observed in disaggregated data. Two applications were performed: the first was performed on the construction of the quarterly series of productive investment (fbcf) by activity branch. The second on the estimation of monthly merchant gdp. If we assume that the disaggregated series can be generated by whatever completely specified dynamic model, new methods can resolve the problem using the states space representation and the kalean filter and smoothing technics
Agoua, Xwégnon. "Développement de méthodes spatio-temporelles pour la prévision à court terme de la production photovoltaïque". Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PSLEM066/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe evolution of the global energy context and the challenges of climate change have led to anincrease in the production capacity of renewable energy. Renewable energies are characterized byhigh variability due to their dependence on meteorological conditions. Controlling this variabilityis an important challenge for the operators of the electricity systems, but also for achieving the Europeanobjectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving energy efficiency and increasing the share of renewable energies in EU energy consumption. In the case of photovoltaics (PV), the control of the variability of the production requires to predict with minimum errors the future production of the power stations. These forecasts contribute to increasing the level of PV penetration and optimal integration in the power grid, improving PV plant management and participating in electricity markets. The objective of this thesis is to contribute to the improvement of the short-term predictability (less than 6 hours) of PV production. First, we analyze the spatio-temporal variability of PV production and propose a method to reduce the nonstationarity of the production series. We then propose a deterministic prediction model that exploits the spatio-temporal correlations between the power plants of a spatial grid. The power stationsare used as a network of sensors to anticipate sources of variability. We also propose an automaticmethod for selecting variables to solve the dimensionality and sparsity problems of the space-time model. A probabilistic spatio-temporal model has also been developed to produce efficient forecasts not only of the average level of future production but of its entire distribution. Finally, we propose a model that exploits observations of satellite images to improve short-term forecasting of PV production
Vuillemin, Benoit. "Recherche de règles de prédiction dans un contexte d'Intelligence Ambiante". Thesis, Lyon, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020LYSE1120.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis deals with the subject of Ambient Intelligence, the fusion between Artificial Intelligence and the Internet of Things. The goal of this work is to extract prediction rules from the data provided by connected objects in an environment, in order to propose automation to users. Our main concern relies on privacy, user interactions, and the explainability of the system’s operation. In this context, several contributions were made. The first is an ambient intelligence architecture that operates locally, and processes data from a single connected environment. The second is a discretization process without a priori on the input data, allowing to take into account different kinds of data from various objects. The third is a new algorithm for searching rules over a time series, which avoids the limitations of stateoftheart algorithms. The approach was validated by tests on two real databases. Finally, prospects for future developments in the system are presented
Ben, Hamadou Radhouane. "Contribution à l'analyse spatio-temporelle de séries écologiques marines". Paris 6, 2003. http://www.theses.fr/2003PA066021.
Pełny tekst źródłaHuard, Malo. "Apprentissage et prévision séquentiels : bornes uniformes pour le regret linéaire et séries temporelles hiérarchiques". Thesis, université Paris-Saclay, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020UPASM009.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis work presents some theoretical and practical contributions to the prediction of arbitrary sequences. In this domain, forecasting takes place sequentially at the same time as learning. At each step, the model is fitted on the past data in order to predict the next observation. The goal of this model is to make the best possible predictions, i.e. those that minimize their deviations from the observations, which are made a posteriori. Sequential learning methods are evaluated by their regret, which measures how close strategies are to the best possible, known only after all the data is available. In this thesis, we extend the set of weights vectors a method is compared to when doing sequential linear regression. We have adapted an existing algorithm by improving its theoretical guarantees allowing it to be compared to any constant linear combination without restriction on the norm of its mixing weights. A second work consisted in extending sequential forecasting methods when forcasted data is organized in a hierarchy. We tested these hierarchical methods on two practical applications, household power consumption prediction and demand forecasts in e-commerce
Hugueney, Bernard. "Représentations symboliques de longues séries temporelles". Paris 6, 2003. http://www.theses.fr/2003PA066161.
Pełny tekst źródłaCorbineau, Ana. "Variabilité temporelle des grands poissons pélagiques exploités dans les écosystèmes marins tropicaux". Paris 6, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009PA066257.
Pełny tekst źródłaHimdi, Khalid El. "Séries chronologiques binaires avec récompenses : Applications à la modélisation en climatologie". Grenoble 1, 1986. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00320012.
Pełny tekst źródłaNowakowski, Samuel. "Détection de défauts dans les séries temporelles". Nancy 1, 1989. http://www.theses.fr/1989NAN10074.
Pełny tekst źródłaParmezan, Antonio Rafael Sabino. "Predição de séries temporais por similaridade". Universidade de São Paulo, 2016. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/55/55134/tde-21112016-150659/.
Pełny tekst źródłaOne of the major challenges in Data Mining is integrating temporal information into process. This difficulty has challenged professionals several application fields and has been object of considerable investment from scientific and business communities. In the context of Time Series prediction, these investments consist majority of grants for designed research aimed at adapting conventional Machine Learning methods for data analysis problems in which time is an important factor. We propose a novel modification of the k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) learning algorithm for Time Series prediction, namely the kNN - Time Series Prediction with Invariances (kNN-TSPI). Our proposal differs from the literature by incorporating techniques for amplitude and offset invariance, complexity invariance, and treatment of trivial matches. These three modifications allow more meaningful matching between the reference queries and Time Series subsequences, as we discuss with more details throughout this masters thesis. We have performed one of the most comprehensible empirical evaluations of Time Series prediction, in which we faced the proposed algorithm with ten methods commonly found in literature. The results show that the kNN-TSPI is appropriate for automated short-term projection and is competitive with the state-of-the-art statistical methods ARIMA and SARIMA. Although in our experiments the SARIMA model has reached a slightly higher precision than the similarity based method, the kNN-TSPI is considerably simpler to adjust. The objective and subjective comparisons of statistical and Machine Learning algorithms for temporal data projection fills a major gap in the literature, which was identified through a systematic review followed by a meta-analysis of selected publications. The 95 data sets used in our computational experiments, as well all the projections with respect to Mean Squared Error, Theils U coefficient and hit rate Prediction Of Change In Direction are available online at the ICMC-USP Time Series Prediction Repository. This work also includes contributions and significant results with respect to the properties inherent to similarity-based prediction, especially from the practical point of view. The outlined experimental protocols and our discussion on the usage of them, can be used as a guideline for models selection, parameters setting, and employment of Artificial Intelligence algorithms for Time Series prediction.
Guàrdia, Sebaoun Elie. "Accès personnalisé à l'information : prise en compte de la dynamique utilisateur". Thesis, Paris 6, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA066519/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe main goal of this thesis resides in using rich and efficient profiling to improve the adequation between the retrieved information and the user's expectations. We focus on exploiting as much feedback as we can (being clicks, ratings or written reviews) as well as context. In the meantime, the tremendous growth of ubiquitous computing forces us to rethink the role of information access platforms. Therefore, we took interest not solely in performances but also in accompanying users through their access to the information. Through this thesis, we focus on users dynamics modeling. Not only it improves the system performances but it also brings some kind of explicativity to the recommendation. Thus, we propose to accompany the user through his experience accessing information instead of constraining him to a given set of items the systems finds fitting
Do, Cao Tri. "Apprentissage de métrique temporelle multi-modale et multi-échelle pour la classification robuste de séries temporelles par plus proches voisins". Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016GREAM028/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe definition of a metric between time series is inherent to several data analysis and mining tasks, including clustering, classification or forecasting. Time series data present naturally several characteristics, called modalities, covering their amplitude, behavior or frequential spectrum, that may be expressed with varying delays and at different temporal granularity and localization - exhibited globally or locally. Combining several modalities at multiple temporal scales to learn a holistic metric is a key challenge for many real temporal data applications. This PhD proposes a Multi-modal and Multi-scale Temporal Metric Learning (M2TML) approach for robust time series nearest neighbors classification. The solution is based on the embedding of pairs of time series into a pairwise dissimilarity space, in which a large margin optimization process is performed to learn the metric. The M2TML solution is proposed for both linear and non linear contexts, and is studied for different regularizers. A sparse and interpretable variant of the solution shows the ability of the learned temporal metric to localize accurately discriminative modalities as well as their temporal scales.A wide range of 30 public and challenging datasets, encompassing images, traces and ECG data, that are linearly or non linearly separable, are used to show the efficiency and the potential of M2TML for time series nearest neighbors classification
Schopf, Eliseu Celestino. "Método neuro-estatístico para predição de séries temporais ruidosas". reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/11476.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis work presents a new forecast method over highly nonlinear noisy time series. The neural statistical method uses a multi-layer perceptron (NN) and the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The justification for the combination of these approaches is that they possess complementary characteristics for the treatment of the peculiarities of the series. The EKF minimizes the influence of noise, working with the variance of the noise obtained from the real data. The NN approximates the generating model’s function. High nonlinearities are also treated by the neural network. The neural statistical method follows the structure of the EKF, using the NN as the predictive process. Thus, it isn’t necessary previous knowledge of the state transition function. The power of treatment of nonlinearities of the NN is kept, using forecast of this as estimative of state and its internal values for calculation of the Jacobian matrix of the EKF. The error estimative covariance and the noise covariance matrixes are used to improve the NN outcome. The NN is trained offline by past observations of the series, which enable the use of powerfuls neural networks. The results of the neural statistical method are compared with the same configuration of NN used in its composition, being applied in the chaotic series of Mackey-Glass and an sine mistures series. Both series are noisy and highly nonlinear. The new method obtained satisfactory result, improving the result of the regular NN in all experiments. The method also contributes in the adjustment of the parameters of the EKF. The hybrid method has a mutual improvement between the NN and the EKF, which explains the obtained good results.
Guàrdia, Sebaoun Elie. "Accès personnalisé à l'information : prise en compte de la dynamique utilisateur". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris 6, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA066519.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe main goal of this thesis resides in using rich and efficient profiling to improve the adequation between the retrieved information and the user's expectations. We focus on exploiting as much feedback as we can (being clicks, ratings or written reviews) as well as context. In the meantime, the tremendous growth of ubiquitous computing forces us to rethink the role of information access platforms. Therefore, we took interest not solely in performances but also in accompanying users through their access to the information. Through this thesis, we focus on users dynamics modeling. Not only it improves the system performances but it also brings some kind of explicativity to the recommendation. Thus, we propose to accompany the user through his experience accessing information instead of constraining him to a given set of items the systems finds fitting
Clarotto, Lucia. "Spatio-temporal prediction by stochastic partial differential equationsPrédiction spatio-temporelle par équations aux dérivées partielles stochastiques". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Paris sciences et lettres, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023UPSLM022.
Pełny tekst źródłaIn the task of predicting spatio-temporal fields in environmental science using statistical methods, introducing statistical models inspired by the physics of the underlying phenomena that are numerically efficient is of growing interest. Large space-time datasets call for new numerical methods to efficiently process them. The Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach has proven to be effective for the estimation and the prediction in a spatial context. We present here the unsteady advection-diffusion SPDE which defines a large class of nonseparable spatio-temporal models. A Gaussian Markov random field approximation of the solution to the SPDE is built by discretizing the temporal derivative with a finite difference method (implicit Euler) and by solving the spatial SPDE with a finite element method (continuous Galerkin) at each time step. The Streamline Diffusion stabilization technique is introduced when the advection term dominates the diffusion. Computationally efficient methods are proposed to estimate the parameters of the SPDE and to predict the spatio-temporal field by kriging, as well as to perform conditional simulations. The approach is applied to solar radiation and wind speed datasets. Its advantages and limitations are discussed, and new perspectives for future work are envisaged, especially involving a nonstationary extension of the approach. As a further contribution of the PhD, the nonseparable generalization of the Gneiting class of multivariate space-time covariance functions is presented. The main potential of the approach is the possibility to obtain entirely nonseparable models in a multivariate setting, and this advantage is shown on a weather trivariate dataset. Finally, a review of some methods for approximate estimation and prediction for spatial and spatio-temporal data is proposed, motivated by the objective of reaching a trade-off between statistical efficiency and computational complexity. These methods proved to be effective for parameter estimation and prediction in the context of the "Spatial Statistics Competition for Large Datasets" organized by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) in 2021 and 2022. Lastly, possible further research directions are discussed
Guégan, Dominique. "Modèles bilinéaires et polynomiaux de séries chronologiques : étude probabiliste et analyse statistique". Grenoble 1, 1988. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00330671.
Pełny tekst źródłaHili, Ouagnina. "Contribution à l'estimation des modèles de séries temporelles non linéaires". Université Louis Pasteur (Strasbourg) (1971-2008), 1995. http://www.theses.fr/1995STR13169.
Pełny tekst źródłaAl, Saleh Mohammed. "SPADAR : Situation-aware and proactive analytics for dynamic adaptation in real time". Electronic Thesis or Diss., université Paris-Saclay, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022UPASG060.
Pełny tekst źródłaAlthough radiation level is a serious concern that requires continuous monitoring, many existing systems are designed to perform this task. Radiation Early Warning System (REWS) is one of these systems which monitors the gamma radiation level in the air. Such a system requires high manual intervention, depends totally on experts' analysis, and has some shortcomings that can be risky sometimes. In this thesis, the RIMI (Refining Incoming Monitored Incidents) approach will be introduced, which aims to improve this system while becoming more autonomous while keeping the final decision to the experts. A new method is presented which will help in changing this system to become more intelligent while learning from past incidents of each specific system
Ladjouze, Salim. "Problèmes d'estimation dans les séries temporelles stationnaires avec données manquantes". Phd thesis, Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble ; 1971-2015), 1986. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00319946.
Pełny tekst źródłaPlaud, Angéline. "Classification ensembliste des séries temporelles multivariées basée sur les M-histogrammes et une approche multi-vues". Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne (2017-2020), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019CLFAC047.
Pełny tekst źródłaRecording measurements about various phenomena and exchanging information about it, participate in the emergence of a type of data called time series. Today humongous quantities of those data are often collected. A time series is characterized by numerous points and interactions can be observed between those points. A time series is multivariate when multiple measures are recorded at each timestamp, meaning a point is, in fact, a vector of values. Even if univariate time series, one value at each timestamp, are well-studied and defined, it’s not the case of multivariate one, for which the analysis is still challenging. Indeed, it is not possible to apply directly techniques of classification developed on univariate data to the case of multivariate one. In fact, for this latter, we have to take into consideration the interactions not only between points but also between dimensions. Moreover, in industrial cases, as in Michelin company, the data are big and also of different length in terms of points size composing the series. And this brings a new complexity to deal with during the analysis. None of the current techniques of classifying multivariate time series satisfies the following criteria, which are a low complexity of computation, dealing with variation in the number of points and good classification results. In our approach, we explored a new tool, which has not been applied before for MTS classification, which is called M-histogram. A M-histogram is a visualization tool using M axis to project the density function underlying the data. We have employed it here to produce a new representation of the data, that allows us to bring out the interactions between dimensions. Searching for links between dimensions correspond particularly to a part of learning techniques called multi-view learning. A view is an extraction of dimensions of a dataset, which are of same nature or type. Then the goal is to display the links between the dimensions inside each view in order to classify all the data, using an ensemble classifier. So we propose a multi-view ensemble model to classify multivariate time series. The model creates multiple M-histograms from differents groups of dimensions. Then each view allows us to get a prediction which we can aggregate to get a final prediction. In this thesis, we show that the proposed model allows a fast classification of multivariate time series of different sizes. In particular, we applied it on aMichelin use case
Jorge, Inès. "Machine-learning-based predictive maintenance for lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Strasbourg, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023STRAD056.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe battery is a central component of electric vehicles, and is subject to numerous challenges in terms of performance, safety and cost. The life of batteries in particular is the subject of a great deal of attention, as it needs to be aligned with the life of a vehicle. In this context, predictive maintenance aims to reliably predict the remaining useful life (RUL) and the evolution of the state of health (SOH) of a Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) battery using past and present operating data, so as to anticipate maintenance operations. The objective of this thesis is to take advantage of the information contained in the time series of current, voltage and temperature via machine learning algorithms. Several predictive models have been developed from public datasets, in order to predict the RUL of a battery or the evolution of its SOH in the more or less long term
Tandeo, Pierre. "MODÉLISATION SPATIO-TEMPORELLE D'UNE VARIABLE QUANTITATIVE À PARTIR DE DONNÉES MULTI-SOURCES APPLICATION À LA TEMPÉRATURE DE SURFACE DES OCÉANS". Phd thesis, Agrocampus - Ecole nationale supérieure d'agronomie de rennes, 2010. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00582679.
Pełny tekst źródłaGuerre, Emmanuel. "Méthode non paramétriques d'analyse des séries temporelles multivariées : estimation de mesures de dépendances". Paris 6, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993PA066110.
Pełny tekst źródłaSantos, Gustavo Adolfo Campos dos. "S-SWAP: scale-space based workload analysis and prediction". reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFC, 2013. http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/18777.
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This work presents a scale-space based approach to assist dynamic resource provisioning. The application of this theory makes it possible to eliminate the presence of irrelevant information from a signal that can potentially induce wrong or late decision making. Dynamic provisioning involves increasing or decreasing the amount of resources allocated to an application in response to workload changes. While monitoring both resource consumption and application-speci c metrics is fundamental in this process since the latter is of great importance to infer information about the former, dealing with these pieces of information to provision resources in dynamic environments poses a big challenge. The presence of unwanted characteristics, or noise, in a signal that represents the monitored metrics favors misleading interpretations and is known to a ect forecast models. Even though some forecast models are robust to noise, reducing its in uence may decrease training time and increase e ciency. Because a dynamic environment demands decision making and predictions on a quickly changing landscape, approximations are necessary. Thus it is important to realize how approximations give rise to limitations in the forecasting process. On the other hand, being aware of when detail is needed, and when it is not, is crucial to perform e cient dynamic forecastings. In a cloud environment, resource provisioning plays a key role for ensuring that providers adequately accomplish their obligation to customers while maximizing the utilization of the underlying infrastructure. Experiments are shown considering simulation of both reactive and proactive strategies scenarios with a real-world trace that corresponds to access rate. Results show that embodying scale-space theory in the decision making stage of dynamic provisioning strategies is very promising. It both improves workload analysis, making it more meaningful to our purposes, and lead to better predictions.
This work presents a scale-space based approach to assist dynamic resource provisioning. The application of this theory makes it possible to eliminate the presence of irrelevant information from a signal that can potentially induce wrong or late decision making. Dynamic provisioning involves increasing or decreasing the amount of resources allocated to an application in response to workload changes. While monitoring both resource consumption and application-speci c metrics is fundamental in this process since the latter is of great importance to infer information about the former, dealing with these pieces of information to provision resources in dynamic environments poses a big challenge. The presence of unwanted characteristics, or noise, in a signal that represents the monitored metrics favors misleading interpretations and is known to a ect forecast models. Even though some forecast models are robust to noise, reducing its in uence may decrease training time and increase e ciency. Because a dynamic environment demands decision making and predictions on a quickly changing landscape, approximations are necessary. Thus it is important to realize how approximations give rise to limitations in the forecasting process. On the other hand, being aware of when detail is needed, and when it is not, is crucial to perform e cient dynamic forecastings. In a cloud environment, resource provisioning plays a key role for ensuring that providers adequately accomplish their obligation to customers while maximizing the utilization of the underlying infrastructure. Experiments are shown considering simulation of both reactive and proactive strategies scenarios with a real-world trace that corresponds to access rate. Results show that embodying scale-space theory in the decision making stage of dynamic provisioning strategies is very promising. It both improves workload analysis, making it more meaningful to our purposes, and lead to better predictions.
Delbart, Célestine. "Variabilité spatio-temporelle du fonctionnement d'un aquifère karstique du Dogger : suivis hydrodynamiques et géochimiques multifréquences ; traitement du signal des réponses physiques et géochimiques". Phd thesis, Université Paris Sud - Paris XI, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00939300.
Pełny tekst źródłaHéas, Patrick. "Apprentissage bayésien de structures spatio-temporelles : application à la fouille visuelle de séries temporelles d'images de satellites". Toulouse, ENSAE, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005ESAE0004.
Pełny tekst źródłaAikes, Junior Jorge. "Estudo da influência de diversas medidas de similaridade na previsão de séries temporais utilizando o algoritmo KNN-TSP". Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana, 2012. http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/handle/tede/1084.
Pełny tekst źródłaTime series can be understood as any set of observations which are time ordered. Among the many possible tasks appliable to temporal data, one that has attracted increasing interest, due to its various applications, is the time series forecasting. The k-Nearest Neighbor - Time Series Prediction (kNN-TSP) algorithm is a non-parametric method for forecasting time series. One of its advantages, is its easiness application when compared to parametric methods. Even though its easier to define kNN-TSP s parameters, some issues remain opened. This research is focused on the study of one of these parameters: the similarity measure. This parameter was empirically evaluated using various similarity measures in a large set of time series, including artificial series with seasonal and chaotic characteristics, and several real world time series. It was also carried out a case study comparing the predictive accuracy of the kNN-TSP algorithm with the Moving Average (MA), univariate Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and multivariate SARIMA methods in a time series of a Korean s hospital daily patients flow in the Emergency Department. This work also proposes an approach to the development of a hybrid similarity measure which combines characteristics from several measures. The research s result demonstrated that the Lp Norm s measures have an advantage over other measures evaluated, due to its lower computational cost and for providing, in general, greater accuracy in temporal data forecasting using the kNN-TSP algorithm. Although the literature in general adopts the Euclidean similarity measure to calculate de similarity between time series, the Manhattan s distance can be considered an interesting candidate for defining similarity, due to the absence of statistical significant difference and to its lower computational cost when compared to the Euclidian measure. The measure proposed in this work does not show significant results, but it is promising for further research. Regarding the case study, the kNN-TSP algorithm with only the similarity measure parameter optimized achieves a considerably lower error than the MA s best configuration, and a slightly greater error than the univariate e multivariate SARIMA s optimal settings presenting less than one percent of difference.
Séries temporais podem ser entendidas como qualquer conjunto de observações que se encontram ordenadas no tempo. Dentre as várias tarefas possíveis com dados temporais, uma que tem atraído crescente interesse, devido a suas várias aplicações, é a previsão de séries temporais. O algoritmo k-Nearest Neighbor - Time Series Prediction (kNN-TSP) é um método não-paramétrico de previsão de séries temporais que apresenta como uma de suas vantagens a facilidade de aplicação, quando comparado aos métodos paramétricos. Apesar da maior facilidade na determinação de seus parâmetros, algumas questões relacionadas continuam em aberto. Este trabalho está focado no estudo de um desses parâmetros: a medida de similaridade. Esse parâmetro foi avaliado empiricamente utilizando diversas medidas de similaridade em um grande conjunto de séries temporais que incluem séries artificiais, com características sazonais e caóticas, e várias séries reais. Foi realizado também um estudo de caso comparativo entre a precisão da previsão do algoritmo kNN-TSP e a dos métodos de Médias Móveis (MA), Auto-regressivos de Médias Móveis Integrados Sazonais (SARIMA) univariado e SARIMA multivariado, em uma série de fluxo diário de pacientes na Área de Emergência de um hospital coreano. Neste trabalho é ainda proposta uma abordagem para o desenvolvimento de uma medida de similaridade híbrida, que combine características de várias medidas. Os resultados obtidos neste trabalho demonstram que as medidas da Norma Lp apresentam vantagem sobre as demais medidas avaliadas, devido ao seu menor custo computacional e por apresentar, em geral, maior precisão na previsão de dados temporais utilizando o algoritmo kNN-TSP. Apesar de na literatura, em geral, a medida Euclidiana ser adotada como medida de similaridade, a medida Manhattan pode ser considerada candidata interessante para definir a similaridade entre séries temporais, devido a não apresentar diferença estatisticamente significativa com a medida Euclidiana e possuir menor custo computacional. A medida proposta neste trabalho, não apresenta resultados significantes, mas apresenta-se promissora para novas pesquisas. Com relação ao estudo de caso, o algoritmo kNN-TSP, com apenas o parâmetro de medida de similaridade otimizado, alcança um erro consideravelmente inferior a melhor configuração com MA, e pouco maior que as melhores configurações dos métodos SARIMA univariado e SARIMA multivariado, sendo essa diferença inferior a um por cento.
Renard, Xavier. "Time series representation for classification : a motif-based approach". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris 6, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA066593.
Pełny tekst źródłaOur research described in this thesis is about the learning of a motif-based representation from time series to perform automatic classification. Meaningful information in time series can be encoded across time through trends, shapes or subsequences usually with distortions. Approaches have been developed to overcome these issues often paying the price of high computational complexity. Among these techniques, it is worth pointing out distance measures and time series representations. We focus on the representation of the information contained in the time series. We propose a framework to generate a new time series representation to perform classical feature-based classification based on the discovery of discriminant sets of time series subsequences (motifs). This framework proposes to transform a set of time series into a feature space, using subsequences enumerated from the time series, distance measures and aggregation functions. One particular instance of this framework is the well-known shapelet approach. The potential drawback of such an approach is the large number of subsequences to enumerate, inducing a very large feature space and a very high computational complexity. We show that most subsequences in a time series dataset are redundant. Therefore, a random sampling can be used to generate a very small fraction of the exhaustive set of subsequences, preserving the necessary information for classification and thus generating a much smaller feature space compatible with common machine learning algorithms with tractable computations. We also demonstrate that the number of subsequences to draw is not linked to the number of instances in the training set, which guarantees the scalability of the approach. The combination of the latter in the context of our framework enables us to take advantage of advanced techniques (such as multivariate feature selection techniques) to discover richer motif-based time series representations for classification, for example by taking into account the relationships between the subsequences. These theoretical results have been extensively tested on more than one hundred classical benchmarks of the literature with univariate and multivariate time series. Moreover, since this research has been conducted in the context of an industrial research agreement (CIFRE) with Arcelormittal, our work has been applied to the detection of defective steel products based on production line's sensor measurements
Besseau, Romain. "Analyse de cycle de vie de scénarios énergétiques intégrant la contrainte d’adéquation temporelle production-consommation". Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PSLEM068.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis research work deals with the environmental impact assessment of energy. The current energy model, which supports the global economy, leads to major environmental impacts by contributing to climate change and resource depletion,and by degrading biodiversity and human health. The environmental impacts of energy systems are assessed, not only considering the energy generation phase, but the whole life-cycle of energy systems : from raw material extraction to end of life. As renewable energies are weather dependent, storage systems may become required to ensure the temporal balance between the production of energy and consumption when renewable energies reach high penetration rates. As a first step, parameterized life-cycle inventory models have been developed for the main energy technologies to produce orstore energy. Those models enable to account for the technological, spatial and temporal variability that can be important. As a second step, an approach based on times-series to model energy production as well as energy consumption has been developed. It allows assessing the energy storage needs induced by the weather dependency of the production and consumption.The global dynamic and parametric method to assess the life cycle environmental impact here developed has been appliedto self-consumption scenarios and then, to the insular territory of La Réunion. Those applications reveal that, even when accounting for the storage need induced by the weather dependency of the production, renewable energies present an environmental footprint significantly lower than the fossil counterparts they aim to substitute
Valk, Marcio. "O uso de quase U-estatísticas para séries temporais uni e multivaridas". [s.n.], 2011. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/307526.
Pełny tekst źródłaTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matemática Estatítica e Computação Científica
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Resumo: Classificação e agrupamento de séries temporais são problemas bastante explorados na literatura atual. Muitas técnicas são apresentadas para resolver estes problemas. No entanto, as restrições necessárias, em geral, tornam os procedimentos específicos e aplicáveis somente a uma determinada classe de séries temporais. Além disso, muitas dessas abordagens são empíricas. Neste trabalho, propomos métodos para classificação e agrupamento de séries temporais baseados em quase U-estatísticas(Pinheiro et al. (2009) e Pinheiro et al. (2010)). Como núcleos das U-estatísticas são utilizadas métricas baseadas em ferramentas bem conhecidas na literatura de séries temporais, entre as quais o periodograma e a autocorrelação amostral. Três situações principais são consideradas: séries univariadas; séries multivariadas; e séries com valores aberrantes. _E demonstrada a normalidade assintética dos testes propostos para uma ampla classe de métricas e modelos. Os métodos são estudados também por simulação e ilustrados por aplicação em dados reais.
Abstract: Classifcation and clustering of time series are problems widely explored in the current literature. Many techniques are presented to solve these problems. However, the necessary restrictions in general, make the procedures specific and applicable only to a certain class of time series. Moreover, many of these approaches are empirical. We present methods for classi_cation and clustering of time series based on Quasi U-statistics (Pinheiro et al. (2009) and Pinheiro et al. (2010)). As kernel of U-statistics are used metrics based on tools well known in the literature of time series, including the sample autocorrelation and periodogram. Three main situations are considered: univariate time series, multivariate time series, and time series with outliers. It is demonstrated the asymptotic normality of the proposed tests for a wide class of metrics and models. The methods are also studied by simulation and applied in a real data set.
Doutorado
Estatistica
Doutor em Estatística
Lê, Thu Trang. "Extraction d'informations de changement à partir des séries temporelles d'images radar à synthèse d'ouverture". Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015GREAA020/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaA large number of successfully launched and operated Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites has regularly provided multitemporal SAR and polarimetric SAR (PolSAR) images with high and very high spatial resolution over immense areas of the Earth surface. SAR system is appropriate for monitoring tasks thanks to the advantage of operating in all-time and all-weather conditions. With multitemporal data, both spatial and temporal information can simultaneously be exploited to improve the results of researche works. Change detection of specific features within a certain time interval has to deal with a complex processing of SAR data and the so-called speckle which affects the backscattered signal as multiplicative noise.The aim of this thesis is to provide a methodology for simplifying the analysis of multitemporal SAR data. Such methodology can benefit from the advantages of repetitive SAR acquisitions and be able to process different kinds of SAR data (i.e. single, multipolarization SAR, etc.) for various applications. In this thesis, we first propose a general framework based on a spatio-temporal information matrix called emph{Change Detection Matrix} (CDM). This matrix contains temporal neighborhoods which are adaptive to changed and unchanged areas thanks to similarity cross tests. Then, the proposed method is used to perform three different tasks:1) multitemporal change detection with different kinds of changes, which allows the combination of multitemporal pair-wise change maps to improve the performance of change detection result;2) analysis of change dynamics in the observed area, which allows the investigation of temporal evolution of objects of interest;3) nonlocal temporal mean filtering of SAR/PolSAR image time series, which allows us to avoid smoothing change information in the time series during the filtering process.In order to illustrate the relevancy of the proposed method, the experimental works of the thesis is performed on four datasets over two test-sites: Chamonix Mont-Blanc, France and Merapi volcano, Indonesia, with different types of changes (i.e., seasonal evolution, glaciers, volcanic eruption, etc.). Observations of these test-sites are performed on four SAR images time series from single polarization to full polarization, from medium to high, very high spatial resolution: Sentinel-1, ALOS-PALSAR, RADARSAT-2 and TerraSAR-X time series
Mei, Jiali. "Time series recovery and prediction with regression-enhanced nonnegative matrix factorization applied to electricity consumption". Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017SACLS578/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaWe are interested in the recovery and prediction of multiple time series from partially observed and/or aggregate data.Motivated by applications in electricity network management, we investigate tools from multiple fields that are able to deal with such data issues.After examining kriging from spatio-temporal statistics and a hybrid method based on the clustering of individuals, we propose a general framework based on nonnegative matrix factorization.This frameworks takes advantage of the intrisic correlation between the multivariate time series to greatly reduce the dimension of the parameter space.Once the estimation problem is formalized in the nonnegative matrix factorization framework, two extensions are proposed to improve the standard approach.The first extension takes into account the individual temporal autocorrelation of each of the time series.This increases the precision of the time series recovery.The second extension adds a regression layer into nonnegative matrix factorization.This allows exogenous variables that are known to be linked with electricity consumption to be used in estimation, hence makes the factors obtained by the method to be more interpretable, and also increases the recovery precision.Moreover, this method makes the method applicable to prediction.We produce a theoretical analysis on the framework which concerns the identifiability of the model and the convergence of the algorithms that are proposed.The performance of proposed methods to recover and forecast time series is tested on several multivariate electricity consumption datasets at different aggregation level
Deeb, Ahmad. "Intégrateurs temporels basés sur la resommation des séries divergentes : applications en mécanique". Thesis, La Rochelle, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015LAROS033/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaDynamical systems which evolve in a large time interval (molecular dynamic, astronomical prediction, turbulence…) take an important place in engineering science. Their numerical resolution has so far constituted a challenge. Indeed, the simulation of the solution requires a solver which is not only fast but also respects the physical properties of the problem, to ensure the stability. In this thesis, we propose to study, regarding this issue, a time integration scheme based on the decomposition of the solution into time series, followed by Borel's resummation technique of divergent series. We analyse the speed of scheme on model problems. Next, we show its capability to preserve the structure of the equation (symplecticity, iso-spectrality, conservation of energy…) up to an arbitrary high order. Thereafter, we use the scheme to resolve partial differential equations coming from mechanics, including the two-dimensional heat equation, Burger’s equation and the Navier-Stokes equation. To this aim, we choose a finite element method for space discretisation. Finally, and in order to make the algorithm more robust, we are interested in the representation of the Borel sum by a generalized factorials series
Lohier, Théophile. "Analyse temporelle de la dynamique de communautés végétales à l'aide de modèles individus-centrés". Thesis, Clermont-Ferrand 2, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016CLF22683/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaPlant communities are complex systems in which multiple species differing by their functional attributes interact with their environment and with each other. Because of the number and the diversity of these interactions the mechanisms that drive the dynamics of theses communities are still poorly understood. Modelling approaches enable to link in a mechanistic fashion the process driving individual plant or population dynamics to the resulting community dynamics. This PhD thesis aims at developing such approaches and to use them to investigate the mechanisms underlying community dynamics. We therefore developed two modelling approaches. The first one is based on a stochastic modelling framework allowing to link the population dynamics to the community dynamics whilst taking account of intra- and interspecific interactions as well as environmental and demographic variations. This approach is easily applicable to real systems and enables to describe the properties of plant population through a small number of demographic parameters. However our work suggests that there is no simple relationship between these parameters and plant functional traits, while they are known to drive their response to extrinsic factors. The second approach has been developed to overcome this limitation and rely on the individual-based model Nemossos that explicitly describes the link between plant functioning and community dynamics. In order to ensure that Nemossos has a large application potential, a strong emphasis has been placed on the tradeoff between realism and parametrization cost. Nemossos has then been successfully parameterized from trait values found in the literature, its realism has been demonstrated and it has been used to investigate the importance of temporal environmental variability for the coexistence of functionally differing species. The complementarity of the two approaches allows us to explore various fundamental questions of community ecology including the impact of competitive interactions on community dynamics, the effect of environmental filtering on their functional composition, or the mechanisms favoring the coexistence of plant species. In this work, the two approaches have been used separately but their coupling might offer interesting perspectives such as the investigation of the relationships between plant functioning and population dynamics. Moreover each of the approaches might be used to run various simulation experiments likely to improve our understanding of mechanisms underlying community dynamics
Six, Delphine. "Analyse statistique des distributions spatiales et temporelles des séries de bilans de masse des glaciers alpins et des calottes polaires de l'hémisphère nord". Grenoble 1, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000GRE10255.
Pełny tekst źródłaClaudino, Joana Filipa Caetano. "Intelligent system for time series pattern identification and prediction". Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/21036.
Pełny tekst źródłaOs crescentes volumes de dados representam uma fonte de informação potencialmente valiosa para as empresas, mas também implicam desafios nunca antes enfrentados. Apesar da sua complexidade intrínseca, as séries temporais são um tipo de dados notavelmente relevantes para o contexto empresarial, especialmente para tarefas preditivas. Os modelos Autorregressivos Integrados de Médias Móveis (ARIMA), têm sido a abordagem mais popular para tais tarefas, porém, não estão preparados para lidar com as cada vez mais comuns séries temporais de maior dimensão ou granularidade. Assim, novas tendências de investigação envolvem a aplicação de modelos orientados a dados, como Redes Neuronais Recorrentes (RNNs), à previsão. Dada a dificuldade da previsão de séries temporais e a necessidade de ferramentas aprimoradas, o objetivo deste projeto foi a implementação dos modelos clássicos ARIMA e as arquiteturas RNN mais proeminentes, de forma automática, e o posterior uso desses modelos como base para o desenvolvimento de um sistema modular capaz de apoiar o utilizador em todo o processo de previsão. Design science research foi a abordagem metodológica adotada para alcançar os objetivos propostos e envolveu, para além da identificação dos objetivos, uma revisão aprofundada da literatura que viria a servir de suporte teórico à etapa seguinte, designadamente a execução do projeto e findou com a avaliação meticulosa do artefacto produzido. No geral todos os objetivos propostos foram alcançados, sendo os principais contributos do projeto o próprio sistema desenvolvido devido à sua utilidade prática e ainda algumas evidências empíricas que apoiam a aplicabilidade das RNNs à previsão de séries temporais.
The current growing volumes of data present a source of potentially valuable information for companies, but they also pose new challenges never faced before. Despite their intrinsic complexity, time series are a notably relevant kind of data in the entrepreneurial context, especially regarding prediction tasks. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been the most popular approach for such tasks, but they do not scale well to bigger and more granular time series which are becoming increasingly common. Hence, newer research trends involve the application of data-driven models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), to forecasting. Therefore, given the difficulty of time series prediction and the need for improved tools, the purpose of this project was to implement the classical ARIMA models and the most prominent RNN architectures in an automated fashion and posteriorly to use such models as foundation for the development of a modular system capable of supporting the common user along the entire forecasting process. Design science research was the adopted methodology to achieve the proposed goals and it comprised the activities of goal definition, followed by a thorough literature review aimed at providing the theoretical background necessary to the subsequent step that involved the actual project execution and, finally, the careful evaluation of the produced artifact. In general, each the established goals were accomplished, and the main contributions of the project were the developed system itself due to its practical usefulness along with some empirical evidence supporting the suitability of RNNs to time series forecasting.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Houfaidi, Souad. "Robustesse et comportement asymptotique d'estimateurs des paramètres d'une série chronologique : (AR(P) et ARMA(P, Q))". Nancy 1, 1986. http://www.theses.fr/1986NAN10065.
Pełny tekst źródłaTudesque, Loïc. "Analyse temporelle et spatiale des composantes chimiques, hydromorphologiques et diatomiques en relation avec les changements globaux". Toulouse 3, 2011. http://thesesups.ups-tlse.fr/1474/.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis aimed at assessing the effect of global changes on aquatic ecosystems. The exploratory analysis of the land cover patterns, physicochemical, hydromorphological, and diatom databases in the Adour-Garonne basin and the diatom flora of streams in French Guyana highlighted: 1) the effect of the global changes on the water quality characterized by the temperature increase and the significant mitigation of eutrophication ; 2) the strongest influence of the land cover patterns at the catchment scale ; 3) the persistence of the diatom flora and the change of community structures facing extreme stress due to gold mining ; These results testified their importance as for their potential transfers towards the fields of "applied research", particularly proposing: 1) a temporal reference frame of the chemical water quality of the Adour-Garonne basin ; 2) to integrate the land cover patterns extracted at the catchment scale in order to improve or develop new biomonitoring tools ; 3) the development of a new generic diatom index appropriate to the French Guyana context based on the diatom motility abilities