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Brink, Charlotte H. "Measuring political risk as risks to foreign investment : a computer-assisted model for analysing and managing political risk". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/52929.
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Thesis (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2002.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: As the title suggests, the major challenge that this study faces is to set out and design a model for analysing and enabling the management of political risk as investment risk - a model that is both sensitive to and reflective of the comprehensive business and investment climate in a country, not only credit or country risk, or only pure political risk in its narrowest definition. In reading about past and more recent research in the field of political risk analysis, it becomes clear that many authors begin by noting the diversity and the discrepancies of the existing definitions of political risk, but evidence in political risk insurance shows that the major perceived political risks that investors insure their interests against seem to be confiscation, expropriation and nationalisation. In the light of this study's findings though, a case can be put forward for urging that the conceptualisation of political risk be extended to further include any or all of the micro political risk factors and their indicators that have been identified to ensure that political events do not impact negatively on a foreign company's profitability. Foreign investors put assets at risk to achieve their objectives and the assessment of these risks, including political risks, is the key to successful operations. Opportunities and risks are often two sides of the same coin and political risk comprises a large part of the environmental forces in terms of the management challenges a Multinational Company (MNC) faces in any investment climate. A firm's foreign investment strategy deals with the positioning of the organisation in an uncertain host country environment and investment climate. This study attempts to explain how a firm's political risk exposure, which refers to the sensitivity of a firm's projected profitability and operationability in a host country to changes in the investment climate, could be managed and reduced. It is hoped that political risk analysis and management can assist foreign operations in managing the risks that might have otherwise proven to be destructive to profitability and operationability. It is irresponsible to present a potential investor with a risk assessment that does not incorporate political risk factors and their indicators, let alone environmental, societal and socio-economic risk factor indicators. Ultimately any business climate, regardless of the country being studied, is underwritten by a political system, political climate, political culture and business culture of the system in which foreign business wishes to operate profitably. What is often labelled as unnecessary and irrelevant detail in risk analysis often results in a lack of using micro risk factors and their indicators and an underestimation of the importance of such micro risk indicators. Hopefully this study takes up the challenge of showing that political risk can be managed and political risk analysis can be made more precise - that it is possible to measure and manage political risk.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Soos die titel van hierdie studie voorstel is een van die grootste uitdagings die ontwerp van 'n model vir die analise van politieke risiko as beleggingsrisiko - 'n model wat ter selfde tyd sensitief is vir en weerspieëlend van 'n land se algemeen omvattende besigheids- en beleggingsklimaat, en nie slegs suiwer politieke risiko in die nouste sin van die woord nie. 'n Literatuurstudie van meer onlangse navorsing, asook navorsing wat in die verlede gedoen is oor politieke risiko en die analise daarvan, dui daarop dat baie outeurs melding maak van die diversiteit en teenstrydighede in die bestaande definisies van politieke risiko. Die teenwoordigheid van versekering teen politieke risiko wys egter daarop dat die primêre politieke risiko's waarteen beleggers hulle belange verseker meesal nasionalisering en onteiening is, asook die beslaglegging op beleggings. Teen die agtergrond van hierdie studie se bevindinge, kan daar egter 'n saak uitgemaak word vir die verbreeding van die konseptualisering van politieke risiko om enige of alle van die mikro-politieke risiko faktorindikatore wat in hierdie studie identifiseer word in te sluit, om sodoende te verseker dat die negatiewe gevolge wat politieke gebeure moontlik mag inhou vir 'n buitelandse maatskappy se belange, sover moontlik beperk word. Buitelandse beleggers stel bates bloot aan risiko's ten einde voorafgestelde doelwitte te bereik en die assessering van hierdie risiko's, insluitende politieke risiko's, is 'n groot bydraende' faktor tot die suksesvolle bedryf van buitelandse beleggings. Geleenthede en risiko's is dikwels twee kante van diesIefde muntstuk en politieke risiko maak 'n groot deel uit van die uitdagende beleggingsomgewing waarin die bestuur van 'n multinasionale korporasie (MNK) daagliks moet funksioneer. 'n Maatskappy se buitelandse beleggingstrategie handel met die posisionering van die organisasie in die onvoorspelbare beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land. Hierdie studie poog ook om te verduidelik hoe die mate waarin 'n firma blootgestel word aan politieke risiko, met ander woorde die sensitiwiteit van 'n firma se voorgenome winsgewendheid en bedryf teenoor veranderinge in die beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land, bestuur en verminder kan word. Daar word gehoop dat politieke risiko analise en die bestuur daarvan 'n bydra kan lewer tot buitelandse besighede se bestuur van hierdie risiko's, wat andersins 'n vemietgende impak kan hê op die winsgewendheid van buitelandse bedrywighede. Dit is onverantwoordelik om aan 'n buitelandse belegger 'n risiko analise voor te lê wat nie politieke risiko faktore en die daarmee gepaardgaande indikatore insluit nie. Die studie argumenteer verder dat faktorindikatore wat die fisiese omgewing, sosiale asook sosio-ekonomiese faktore aanspreek ook in 'n risiko analise ingesluit moet word. Oplaas is enige besigheidsklimaat, nieteenstaande die land wat bestudeer word, onderskryf deur 'n politieke stelsel, politieke klimaat, politieke kultuur en besigheidskultuur van die stelsel waarin die buitelandse besigheid winsgewende resultate as doelwit het. Wat dikwels beskou word as onnodige en irrelevante detail in risiko analise lei dikwels tot 'n gebrek aan die insluiting van mikro-risiko faktore en hulle indikatore weens 'n onderskatting van die noodsaaklikheid daarvan om juis sulke mikro-risiko faktorindikatore in 'n risiko analise in te bou. Hierdie studie aanvaar hopelik die uitdaging om te wys dat politieke risiko tog bestuur kan word en dat politieke risiko analise tog meer eksak gemaak kan word - dat dit wel moontlik is om politieke risiko te meet en bestuur.
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Nelson, Laura Kathleen. "Risky business: social media metrics and political risk analysis". reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13626.
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Quantifying country risk – and in particular, political risk – poses great difficulties for business, institutions, and investors alike. As economic indicators are updated far less frequently than Facebook feeds, it can be challenging for political risk analysts to understand, and more importantly measure, what is taking place in real time on the ground. However, with the growing availability of big data from social media platforms such as Twitter, now is an opportune moment to examine the types of social media metrics that are available and the limitations to applying them to country risk analysis, particularly during episodes of political upheaval. This study, using the qualitative method of bibliographical research, identifies the current landscape of data available from Twitter, analyzes the current and potential methods of analysis, and discusses their possible application to the field of political risk analysis. After a thorough review of the field to date, and given the expected near- to medium-term technological advancements, this study concludes that despite obstacles like the cost of data storage, limitations of real-time analysis, and the potential for data manipulation, the potential benefits of the application of social media metrics to the field of political risk analysis, particularly for structured-qualitative and quantitative models, outweigh the challenges.
A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de 'big data' de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.
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Kettis, Magdalena. "The Challenge of Political Risk : Exploring the political risk management of Swedsih multinational corporations". Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-112.
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In an overarching aim to bridge the gap between political science and international business studies, this study explores how, against the backgrond of globalization, multinational coprorations understand and deal with the influence of many differet and sometimes very dynamic political environments, by focusing on the political risk management of a number of Swedish multinational corporations invoved in foreign investing. Based on interviewswith coproate executives in these corporations, this qualitative study found that Swedish invetsors use a "pragmatic" approach toeards political risk and the political envrionments in which they operate. The study also drwas attention to teh role of multinational corporations in teh formation of politica risk as teh result of corporate politiacl activity and the possibility that multinational corporations are moving towards a more pronounced political role.It is suggetsed that political risk needs to be considered not only in terms of the potential impact of the political environment on firms, but also in terms of teh impact of teh firm on the environment, as the political environment cannot be taken as a given, but is the outcome of a process that involves adaption to the environment as well as attempts to change that environment.
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Davidsson, Jukka. "Political Risk in Finland : Does the financial crisis in 1990’s consist of political risk?" Thesis, Uppsala University, Department of Business Studies, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-8176.
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Thesis political risk in Finland will explain the real nature of the financial crisis in Finland in the beginning of 1990’s. Before 1990’s Finland used to be a closed and controlled market. The liberalisation of the financial market began in 1980’s. This process caused the depression in Finland. Partly there is truth behind this statement. The restructuration of Finnish economy and state policy needed more. The government formed collaboration with the legal system and major actors in Finland. Financial institutions and large corporations were provided a parachute. The mentioned companies got a different treatment in front of the law than small and medium size companies. Government together with financial institutions made a plan for solving the problems what the market faced. They signed secret agreements upon execution of the plan. Actually, the three actors made a plot for the rest of the people in Finland. This is a thesis of political risk in a developed country called Finland. Political risk is not only concentrated on undeveloped countries. The existence of political risk is increasing throughout the world. Therefore, it is important to point out the possibility of political risk in developed world.
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Lindeberg, Martin, i Staffan Mörndal. "Managing Political Risk : A contextual approach". Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Management and Economics, 2002. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-1029.
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Background: The world is turning into a global market place. At the same time as internationalisation and investments in emerging markets have increased, multinational enterprises are as a consequence exposed to more and more risks of various kinds. One of these risks is political risk. It implicates the risk of negative effects for a company due to political actions. Due to the increased activity in developing countries, the process of risk management has become more important the last years. The perception of the political environment is influenced by personal or organisational factors. Even though it is possible that the political risk is managed differently depending on contextual factors, there is, as far as we know, little research conducted with the purpose of investigating this relationship. We would therefore like to compare a number of companies and situations in order to distinguish a pattern concerning what elements influence their political risk management and in what way.
Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate why companies manage political risk in a certain way as well as to determine how contextual factors influence the political risk management.
Method: We have investigated and compared the political risk management in ABB, Saab, Scania and Skanska. This has been done through interviews with one political risk manager and one project manager in each company.
Result: The risk management is greatly influenced by various contextual factors, such as the risk attitude of the company and the characteristics of the project.
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Kamga, Wafo Guy Léopold. "Political risk and foreign direct investment". [S.l.] : Universität Konstanz , Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften und Statistik, 1998. http://www.bsz-bw.de/cgi-bin/xvms.cgi?SWB8500747.
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Kearns, Ian Paul. "Political risk analysis : a conceptual re-valuation". Thesis, Staffordshire University, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.360355.
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Al, Khattab Adel. "Political risk assessment in Jordanian international firms". Thesis, University of Huddersfield, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.430297.
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Nwosu, Ikenna E. "Redefining 'political risk' in the 21st century". Thesis, University of Dundee, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.408863.
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Hansen, Carsten. "Examining political risk in service offshoring strategies". Thesis, Cranfield University, 2015. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/10181.
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This research investigates political risk in the context of service offshoring and the corresponding impact on risk management decisions. The first stage of the study uses the Repertory Grid Technique (RGT), to explore key post-contract political risks experiences within offshore outsourcing activities. Twelve key political risks affecting offshore outsourcing decisions are identified, and the moderating effect of offshoring activity types (BPO, ITO or KPO) on political risk exposure and impact perceptions is highlighted. The research also explores the conditioning effect of industry specific exposure to political risk and enhances the explanatory ability of the Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) constructs, offering a re-operationalization of the political risk component of external uncertainty.
The second stage of the research introduces a series of hypotheses between offshoring flows and political risk profiles, and applies multiple regression to analyse political risk affecting offshore activities in low cost countries across contract-based offshoring engagements and FDI. The findings highlight that political risk is a genuine business concern for offshore contract-based outsourcing modalities, and identify concerns with Intellectual Property protection, Quality of Bureaucracy and Corruption as key considerations affecting location decisions in low-cost countries. The research further suggests a positive relationship between strong country level institutional and regulatory systems and high knowledge content in offshoring engagements.
From a practical perspective, the research highlights the need for managerial tools to determine diversified firm and industry specific political risk impact on global service outsourcing engagements. The key practical contribution is the development of differentiated political risk typologies that can capture the nuances of external risks in offshoring, allowing for more accurate risk assessment of offshoring decisions.
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Stevens, Charles E. "A Legitimacy-Based Approach to Political Risk". The Ohio State University, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1283193445.
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Muchenga, Isaac. "Political risk management on international construction projects". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20676.
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This research examines the micro -political risks affecting international construction projects in Namibia and whether these risks are effectively managed. A case study research design was used for the study and the findings were that key threat risks identified in this context were repudiation, contract problems, labour unrest, hostile press, delay in permit approvals while local ownership requirements and expatriate labour restrictions are both threat and opportunity risks . It further emerged that qualitative (heuristic) techniques were commonly used in an ad hoc fashion for risk assessment and that the risk management strategy of cooperation was the most preferred. In addition, evidence suggest s that the execution phase is most prone to micro political risk. A significant number of the micro -political risks identified arise from the host government, while the balance arise from the host society. These findings are likely to apply to other international construction projects in Namibia and have serious implication s for the role of government in the success or failure of infrastructural projects which are badly needed for national development. Therefore, the Namibian Government can positively contribute through introduction of regulations, laws or amendments to laws that enhance opportunities, minimise downside risk, and thereby reduce overall construction costs on international construction projects in the country. It is recommended that systematic risk management in which both qualitative and quantitative techniques are used for risk assessment, be adopted in dealing with micro political risks associated with international construction projects in Namibia. Additionally, tertiary institutions offering risk management training need to focus on qualitative methods to facilitate maximum benefit when these methods are applied by their graduates. The existence of both threat s and opportunities in the micro -political risk environment in international construction means contractors in international construction need to be on the lookout for downside risks as well as opportunities.
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Pringle, Catherine Mary. "The risk of humanitarianism : industry-specific political-security risk analysis for international agencies in conflict zones". Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/5422.
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BibliographyThesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: International agencies are facing heightened levels of security risk in conflict zones. The nature of contemporary conflicts and the post-9/11 global political-security environment have contributed to a situation whereby the threat of attack as well as recurring criminal violence are a constant reality for their employees, hindering their work and obstructing their access to people in need. Moreover, the ability of international agencies to conduct strategic risk assessment has been called into question. The central research question of this study concerns whether an industry-specific political-security risk model can be applied successfully in order to assist international agencies with strategic political-security risk analysis in conflict zones. In order to develop a political-security risk model for international agencies a number of supplementary research questions are asked. The first of these is what limitations the security risk models currently used by international agencies exhibit. The second question asks what factors and indicators should be included in an industry-specific political-security risk model for international agencies in conflict zones. So as to test the applicability of the model developed in this research study, the last question asks what the level of risk is for international agencies operating in the conflict zone in eastern Chad. Using political risk theory, and drawing upon political risk models specific to the energy industry, this research study proposes an industry-specific political-security risk model for international agencies in conflict zones, in which the limitations of the current models used by international agencies to analyse security risks are overcome. The application of this model to eastern Chad returns an overall risk rating of extreme, which is the highest overall risk rating obtainable. By regularly utilising this model, international agencies are able to monitor the changing levels of security risk in a conflict zone and are therefore better placed to make informed strategic decisions when it comes to risk management and risk mitigation.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Internasionale agentskappe trotseer tans verhoogde vlakke van sekuriteitsrisiko in konfliksones. Die aard van hedendaagse konflikte en die post-9/11 globale politieke sekuriteitsomgewing het bygedra tot ’n situasie waar die bedreiging van aanvalle sowel as die herhalende aard van kriminele geweld vir hul werkers ’n voortdurende realiteit is. As gevolg hiervan word werkers verhinder om hul verpligtinge uit te voer en na mense in nood uit te reik. Boonop word internasionale agentskappe se vermoë om strategiese risiko-asessering uit te voer nou bevraagteken. Die hoofnavorsingsvraag van hierdie studie is: kan ’n industrie-spesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel suksesvol toegepas word om internasionale agentskappe by te staan met strategiese politieke sekuriteitsrisiko-analise in konfliksones, al dan nie. Ten einde ’n politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe te ontwikkel, word daar ook ’n aantal aanvullende navorsingsvrae gevra. Die eerste hiervan stel ondersoek in na die beperkings van die sekuriteitsrisikomodelle wat teenswoordig deur internasionale agentskappe gebruik word. Die tweede vraag vra watter faktore en indikators by ’n industriespesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe in konfliksones ingesluit behoort te word. Ten einde die toepaslikheid te toets van die model wat in hierdie studie ontwikkel is, stel die laaste vraag ondersoek in na die risikovlak vir internasionale agentskappe wat in die konfliksone van oostelike Tsjad werksaam is. Met behulp van politieke risikoteorie en met gebruik van politieke risikomodelle wat spesifiek betrekking het tot die energie-industrie, propageer hierdie navorsingstudie ’n industrie-spesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe in konfliksones wat die beperkings van die modelle wat huidig deur internasionale agentskappe gebruik word, sal oorwin. Hierdie model se toepassing op oostelike Tsjad toon in die geheel ’n risikowaarde van ekstreem, die hoogste algehele risikowaarde moontlik. Deur hierdie model gereeld te gebruik sal dit internasionale agentskappe in staat stel om die veranderende vlakke van sekuriteitsrisiko in ’n konfliksone te monitor; dus sal hulle meer ingeligte strategiese besluite kan neem wat betref risikobestuur en – verligting.
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Alyatama, Sundus. "A study of managers' political risk perceptions and political risk assessment procedures within Kuwaiti international firms during the 'Arab Spring'". Thesis, Lancaster University, 2016. http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/83254/.
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The occurrence of high profile political events coupled with the wave of firm internationalisation have, in recent years, aroused interest in understanding the phenomenon of political risk. Although risk perception and political risk assessment are already established topics, there is limited knowledge about managerial perception of political risk while undertaking international business activities. And, while it can be argued that the way managers perceive risk is important to the subsequent assessment of such risk, the literature on risk perception and the literature on risk assessment have not been connected. Furthermore, there is a well-established body of literature on risk perception using and supporting the relevance of the psychometric framework – this framework has been successfully used to study risks like technological and environmental risks but not political risk in particular. Moreover, the existing political risk literature has not used any generally acknowledged approach like the psychometric framework to enhance our understanding of political risk perception. This study presents findings on managerial perception and assessment of political risk in the context of the developing economy of Kuwait, and the recent unique series of political events known as the Arab Spring. It argues that understanding both risk perception and assessment, and their inter-relationship, is important in understanding how and why international firms respond to political risk. Data for this study was collected through a mixed methods approach of a questionnaire survey and interviews to achieve two broad objectives: to study managerial political risk perception of Kuwaiti international firms based on the psychometric approach; and to study the political risk assessment and how this relates to political risk perception. The psychometric framework-based questionnaire survey data was collected from 120 managers from across 44 firms. The interview data was collected using face-to-face, semi-structured interviews with 34 managers in 34 Kuwaiti firms. The main findings revealed that the general model, and the specific risk attributes, used in the traditional psychometric approach are highly applicable to political risk perception. They also showed clear differences in managers’ perceptions of governmental and non-governmental risks, with higher risk perceptions being associated with non-governmental risk. In addition, the findings indicate that there is no influence of firms’ characteristics on political risk perceptions. This confirms the basic assumption of the psychometric approach, which is that the characteristics of the perceived risk, not the characteristics of the individual perceiver, are what primarily determine risk perception. The findings also indicated that the level of institutionalisation of political risk assessment is not significantly correlated with any obvious firm characteristic. In addition, managers were found to resist quantitative assessment despite their high awareness of political risk (especially for nongovernmental risks). There are two main intended contributions of this study to the literature on political risk. First, by applying the psychometric paradigm to political risk, this study has not only extended the applicability of the psychometric framework but also made a connection between the political risk literature and risk perception literature. Second, the specific observations reported by the study – for example, the way managers dichotomise risks between governmental and non-governmental sources and the reasons why managers resist quantitative assessment – make a contribution to our understanding of how political risks to firms are considered and prioritised at an organisational level. The findings from this study also have practical implications for managers of international firms. For example, the strong explanation of political risk perceptions provided by the psychometric framework may help managers predict the risk perceptions of other managers who they may have to persuade or negotiate with. Understanding the reasons why managers dichotomise governmental and nongovernmental risk also has practical importance, as it helps them to reflect on their own circumstances and assess whether this dichotomisation is appropriate to these circumstances. Similarly, knowing the way that other managers rationalise the use, or non-use, of quantitative assessment allows a firm to assess whether such reasons fit their own problems, and so come to a deeper understanding of how much formal assessment of political risk is appropriate to their situation. There are several limitations to this study. Some relate to its external validity, because it is difficult to generalise the findings outside of Kuwait, and some to its internal validity, because the firms included in the sample may not be completely representative. Other limitations include possible sampling bias due to the self- selection process by potential respondents, and using only a single respondent manager per firm in the interview study. Also it is a cross sectional study, not a longitudinal one, and the characteristic of managerial position is the only individual characteristic considered as potentially affecting political risk perception. The recommendations for future work would therefore include carrying out similar studies that consider larger samples and different contexts to improve internal and external validity. Such studies should include longitudinal designs and consider other individual characteristics besides managerial position (such as age, gender and education), and their effect on managerial political risk perception.
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Hawborn, Dahlstedt Simon. "Political Risk & Earnings Quality : An analysis of political effects on earnings management". Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-387507.
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The high level of political risk might enhance the information asymmetry between managers and stakeholders, therefore leading to increased opportunity for earnings management activities, which depress the usefulness of financial information. On the other hand, times of high political uncertainty possibly increase the demand for information among stakeholders, consequently leading to enhanced scrutiny and fewer earnings management activities. By examine 625 firms listed in the United States between 20022016, I make use of a firm-level measurement of political risk to identify the possible impact on earnings quality. I identify that political risk exposure measured on a firm-level is negatively associated with earnings management. Therefore I can conclude that firm-level political risk increases earnings quality. I further show how firm-level political risk better predicts earnings management activities than an aggregated measurement of political risk. Finally, I provide evidence that suggests that accrual-based earnings management is affected by the past level of political risk exposure. Real earnings management activities show no such indications.
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Althaus, Catherine Eileen, i n/a. "Policy Design and the Calculation of Political Risk". Griffith University. Department of Politics and Public Policy, 2005. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20050824.120313.
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This thesis examines the concept of political risk. It explores how political actors determine whether something is politically risky and what implications this judgment holds for policy design. It establishes that calculations of political risk are a day-to-day occurrence in political life, that they uniquely and influentially structure the public policy process, and that political risk analysis is a valid and distinct conceptual framework. Surveying an extensive multidisciplinary literature, the thesis clarifies its definition of political risk and identifies a gap in the existing political science literature concerning the concept. It exposes a hiatus between the political science discipline and political practice in the recognition of political risk calculation as a central aspect of political judgment. Because the theory of political risk is underdeveloped in political science, the thesis pieces together the existing wisdom from other disciplines that might inform a definition of political risk. It then plots a set of hypotheses to assist in constructing a foundational appreciation of what political risk calculation might entail. The thesis tests the resulting hypotheses using empirical research. A survey of 111 Australian political actors is conducted in order to determine how political risk is understood and operationalised in political practice and to ascertain the consequences of political risk for decision making and policy design. Survey results are complemented by a comparative analysis of four policy issues. The case studies selected were the Citizen's Charter and Mad Cow crisis of the British Major Government and the Charter of Social and Fiscal Responsibility and Smart State policies initiated by the Queensland Beattie Government. The comparative analysis of these cases is designed to add rigour to the interview data. It also provides additional information concerning the policy design implications of political risk calculation by relating interview findings to substantive policy problems. Together, this multi-method research demonstrates that political risk provides a fresh analytical perspective on public policy. Political risk analysis describes a unique aspect of political reality and explains in new ways the decision making process underpinning policy design. Political risk analysis also defends political action against claims of irrationality and attacks that suggest that politics is based on sheer cynicism, because it shows that political risk calculation boasts a defensible logic of its own. In fact, the thesis concludes that political risk provides a conceptual tool that begins to unravel some of the 'mystery' of politics that confounds technocratic models of policy analysis. Awareness of political risk calculation re-establishes political decision making as an endeavour where investigation must proceed with an appreciation of the integrated nature of human judgment that utilises both 'rational' and 'extra-rational' capacities to confront uncertainty.
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Jakobsen, Jo. "Political risk for multinational companies : sources and effects /". Trondheim : Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Social Science and Technology Management, Department of Sociology and Political Science, 2007. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/549678344.pdf.
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Paiz, Fernando. "Political risk insurance : a solution to capital flight?" Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/67102.
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Dierich, Daniel. "Investigating political risk in the German energy industry". Thesis, University of Gloucestershire, 2013. http://eprints.glos.ac.uk/2094/.
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This study analyses the phenomenon of political risk in the German energy industry. Political risk can be understood as “the probability that factors caused or influenced by the (in) action or reactions of stakeholders within a political system to events outside or within the country” (Brink 2004). This study asks for determinants and characteristics of political risk, its origination, its occurrence, and its impact. The focus of this study lies in the German energy industry, where politically initiated drastic changes are the predominant challenge for utilities (Roland Berger, 2013). The industry levels investigated include strategic and risk company’s issues and are focused on the senior management and senior politicians’ insights. It looks for the identification and analysis of the linkage of political risk and their effect on utility companies in Germany of different sizes and active within different sectors. While political risk is not limited to Germany or the energy industry, there have been enormous changes in this field recently: the German government recently decided to shut down all nuclear-fuelled power plants as part of a programme called energy turnaround (Energiewende). The content of this programme will change the industry structure radically. Renewable energy is now heavily favoured with a consequent decline in nuclear energy usage. This study analyses political risk combining two approaches: an outside-in and an inside-out analysis. Two important perspectives are captured, evaluated and compared with each other. The first group of interviews focuses on senior political experts, who are strongly connected with the energy industry. This “inside” information comes from experts including members of the state and federal parliament, as well as European parliament and one former federal minister of economics. The second group of interviews therefore seeks “outside” information from industry experts, senior managers of the German energy industries, who are daily confronted with the impact of political risk. It is enriching to combine these two sides, to develop an understanding of the phenomenon of political risk in the German energy industry. The approach of having two interview series with conflicting expert opinion generates a new view of this topic. The findings illustrate these ideas, thoughts, and opinions together, which helps to explain the different sides of political risk in the German energy industry and generates approaches for the utility companies to take to mitigate political risk. The analyses of the experts’ insights generated the following results (1) identification and description of the definitional tensions of understanding political risk in the German energy industry (2) analysis of the political risks the industry is facing (3) evaluation of the potential impact of these risks on the industry and its companies (4) development of a conceptual approach for political risk management in the German energy industry. In detail, it has been derived from the analysis that there are huge differentiations in the understanding of political risk between politicians and managers. There is also no common understanding within the group of politicians. The different perception of political risk was also evident for the types of political risk that were discussed in this study. Despite the observed influence of political decisions on single enterprises in Germany in recent history, there are also differentiations in the evaluation of the impact of political risk within practice. Managers perceive it as a given fact and accept is as an element of their environment that they must interact with, while some political experts argue towards a legislative character of political decisions. The generated insights of the experts were used to develop a conceptual approach for the evaluation of political risk in the German energy industry. It uses three groups of criteria (inside view, outside view, and level of political communication) to evaluate the level of political risk. Three levels of political risk are described and linked with level-related sets of recommendation as a main contribution to theory and practice. The model enables the individual company to take individual actions by anticipating their individual political risk exposure.
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Mshelia, James Buba. "Political risk assessment by multinational firms in Nigeria". Thesis, University of Huddersfield, 2015. http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/30193/.
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The study offers an insight into the dynamics of the relationship between political risk and multinational firms in the context of emerging markets. Political Risk Assessment (PRA) importance for multinational firms investing in emerging markets has increased significantly with the growing rate of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) globally. It is used for managing political risk, and decision-making processes during firms’ internationalisation, and has been identified as one of the key determinants of FDI into developing countries. However, only a few empirical studies on PRA have been undertaken in emerging markets. Previous studies have shown that political risk has been evolving and has resulted in a range of consequences that have influenced the type of strategies which firms adopt. It is in recognition of this that the need to identify a country’s specific political risk factors and their consequences for multinational firms that this study is undertaken in Nigeria. Despite the flux in the political environment of the country with its population divided along cultural, ethnic, language and religious lines within its different geographical regions, Nigeria has witnessed a continuous inflow of FDI. This research contributes to the assessment of political risk by critically analysing the determinants and indicators to examine how the consequences of political risk impact upon multinational firms, with a view to understanding the managerial practices associated with managing political risk in Nigeria. Six objectives were identified as follows: to investigate the determinants of political risk; to examine their impacts; to investigate the variables and indicators used to forecast political risk; to investigate the consequences of political risk; to explore practices of PRA in multinational firms and to identify strategies used to manage and mitigate political risk in Nigeria. Likewise, four hypotheses underpinning these objectives were formulated to understand the dynamics of the relationship between political risk and multinational firms. This study empirically used a sequential mixed method strategy to analyse statistically as well as using thematic and content analysis data collected through a multi-method approach from 74 multinational firms in Nigeria. The dataset of the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) PRA annual rating for Nigeria within the period 2011 to 2015 was also analysed. The study identifies eight determinants that contribute to the emergence of political risk. It highlighted factors that influence the consequences of political risk on multinational firms which supports the conceptual premise for identifying reasons why firms manage and mitigate political risk in countries, and why some internationalise into specific countries. Empirically, it showed that the impact of political risk varies from one part of a country to another, as do the consequences of their impacts which inform why multinational firms are located more in some parts of the country, and how the consequences of political risk will differ between firms, depending on their location in a country. These findings have implications for practice and showed that firms could improve their conduct of PRA, influence the type of strategies they adopt and how to explore quantitative PRA methodologies when operating in similar emerging markets. This study also showed that some risk indicators used for forecasting political risk appeared major and did not retain the same value within the country. The case of Nigeria showed that the presence of high political risk does not deter firms if the financial and economic risk is low. It reveals also that the practice of PRA differs within firms and that the strategies used to mitigate political risk mostly involve the conduct of PRA and engagement in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR).
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Linneman, Thomas John. "Political climates, perceptions of risk, and contemporary activisms /". Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/8850.
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Althaus, Catherine Eileen. "Policy Design and the Calculation of Political Risk". Thesis, Griffith University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366701.
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This thesis examines the concept of political risk. It explores how political actors determine whether something is politically risky and what implications this judgment holds for policy design. It establishes that calculations of political risk are a day-to-day occurrence in political life, that they uniquely and influentially structure the public policy process, and that political risk analysis is a valid and distinct conceptual framework. Surveying an extensive multidisciplinary literature, the thesis clarifies its definition of political risk and identifies a gap in the existing political science literature concerning the concept. It exposes a hiatus between the political science discipline and political practice in the recognition of political risk calculation as a central aspect of political judgment. Because the theory of political risk is underdeveloped in political science, the thesis pieces together the existing wisdom from other disciplines that might inform a definition of political risk. It then plots a set of hypotheses to assist in constructing a foundational appreciation of what political risk calculation might entail. The thesis tests the resulting hypotheses using empirical research. A survey of 111 Australian political actors is conducted in order to determine how political risk is understood and operationalised in political practice and to ascertain the consequences of political risk for decision making and policy design. Survey results are complemented by a comparative analysis of four policy issues. The case studies selected were the Citizen's Charter and Mad Cow crisis of the British Major Government and the Charter of Social and Fiscal Responsibility and Smart State policies initiated by the Queensland Beattie Government. The comparative analysis of these cases is designed to add rigour to the interview data. It also provides additional information concerning the policy design implications of political risk calculation by relating interview findings to substantive policy problems. Together, this multi-method research demonstrates that political risk provides a fresh analytical perspective on public policy. Political risk analysis describes a unique aspect of political reality and explains in new ways the decision making process underpinning policy design. Political risk analysis also defends political action against claims of irrationality and attacks that suggest that politics is based on sheer cynicism, because it shows that political risk calculation boasts a defensible logic of its own. In fact, the thesis concludes that political risk provides a conceptual tool that begins to unravel some of the 'mystery' of politics that confounds technocratic models of policy analysis. Awareness of political risk calculation re-establishes political decision making as an endeavour where investigation must proceed with an appreciation of the integrated nature of human judgment that utilises both 'rational' and 'extra-rational' capacities to confront uncertainty.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Department of Politics and Public Policy
Griffith Business School
Full Text
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Saad, Rami. "How Does Political Instability Affect Market Risk and the Risk Premium in Israel". Thesis, Umeå universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet (USBE), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-54388.
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Khan, Saad Ullah. "Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach". Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2014. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/79325/1/Saad_Khan_Thesis.pdf.
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This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?
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Bischoff, Emil Gottfried. "Regional political risk analysis: The conflict in the Niger Delta and its impact on the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea". Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/4138.
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Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Nigeria’s ability to play a regional stabilizing role in the Gulf of Guinea is severely thwarted due to unresolved conflict in the Niger Delta. Stemming from agitation by local communities, it evolved from peaceful rallies into an armed insurgency with the youth as the vanguard, and the conflict has subsequently spread into neighbouring countries like Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Benin. The aim of this study was to analyse the conflict in the Niger Delta, southern Nigeria in order to assess its impact on the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea. Taking the form of a political risk analysis, a means of forecasting potential pitfalls for an investing client to mitigate or manage risk, the study postulated that a country specific risk analysis would not be sufficient to analyse an integrated system like the Gulf of Guinea. Many scholars have suggested that regional analysis has become more important than national. In the context of Africa contagion effects, the spill over, positive as well as negative from one country to another, casts doubt on the value of assessing only a country specific risk analysis. Taking this phenomenon into account, a regional risk index was created in order to assess the regional implications of the conflict in the Niger Delta. The index consists of six variables chosen from four political risk frameworks, namely the Economist Intelligence Unit, the Business Environment Risk Intelligence, The Brink Model, and finally the International Country Risk Guide. The variables were chosen on their utility for regional political risk analysis and their status as major risk variables, universal risk variables employed by various risk frameworks. In the subsequent political risk analysis, the first four variables were rated as having a high risk while the latter two garnered a medium risk rating. As such the overall rating for the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea was found to be high. This study finds that conventional country specific risk models are still very much the preferred means of analysing risk, but that regional risk analysis would have to take a larger role in political risk analysis in the future.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Nigerië se vermoë om ‘n streeks-stabiliserende rol in die Golf van Guinea te speel, word ernstig gedwarsboom deur die onopgeloste konflik in die Niger Delta. Die oorsprong van die konflik in vreedsame gemeenskaplike protestaksie vir meer regverdige verdeling van olie inkomste het uitgekring na gewapende konflik, beide in die Delta self en in buurlande Kameroen, Ekwatoriale Guinee en Benin. Hierdie studie het gepoog om die konflik in die Nigeriese Delta te bestudeer om die impak van politieke risiko op die Golf van Guinea te assesseer. Die studie het die vorm van ‘n politieke risiko analise aangeneem, ‘n middel van vooruitskatting om potensiële valstrikke aan ‘n kliënt wat wil belê uit te wys om sodoende konflik te verlig of te beheer. Die studie veronderstel dat ‘n landspesifieke konflik analise onvoldoende is om ‘n geïntegreerde sisteem soos die Golf van Guinea te analiseer. Met menige akademici wat voorstel dat streeksanalise belangriker geword het as die nasionale, word daar in die konteks van die gevolge van Afrika-besmetting, die oorloop daarvan van een land na ‘n ander, positief sowel as negatief, ‘n skaduwee gegooi op die waarde van die assessering van slegs ‘n landspesifieke konflik analise. Met hierdie fenomeen in gedagte, is ‘n streek risiko inhoud geskep om die implikasies vir die konflik in die Niger Deltastreek, te assesseer. Die inhoud is saamgestel uit ‘n verskeidenheid van ses variante gekies uit vier politieke risiko raamwerke, nl die ‘Ekonomist Intelligence Unit’, die ‘Business Environment Risk Intelligence’, die ‘Brink Model’ en ook die ‘International Country Risk Guide’. Die variante is gebruik vir hulle waarde vir streekspolitieke risiko analise, asook die belangrikheid van hulle hoof risiko veranderlikheid, ‘n universele Hoof risiko variant wat gebruik word in verskillende risiko raamwerke. In die gevolglike politieke risiko-analise, is die vier variante beskou as ‘n baie hoë risiko, terwyl die laaste twee as medium risiko beskou word. Dus is die algemene taksering vir die politiese risiko in die Golf van Guinea baie hoog. Die studie vind uiteindelik dat lande se spesifieke risiko modelle steeds die verkose manier is om risiko’s te analiseer, alhoewel politieke risiko analise ‘n groter rol sal speel in toekomstige streek risiko analise.
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Livas, Elizondo Raul Alejandro. "Essays on regional economics and political risk in Mexico". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/12702.
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Haddar, Marwa. "Essays on firm-level political risk and corporate finance". Thesis, Paris Est, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022PESC0011.
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Contexte et problématique Le monde évolue maintenant à une vitesse fulgurante. Les plus importants de ces changements se produisent dans les domaines politique et technologique. Les changements géopolitiques ont rapproché la politique et les entreprises. Les bouleversements politiques modifient sans cesse les circonstances dans lesquelles les individus, les sociétés et les entreprises évoluent, ce qui ne crée pas des marchés totalement isolés de la politique. La politique façonne et contraint les marchés par le biais de ses règles, normes et institutions. Les régimes commerciaux, les sanctions et les lois nationales, par exemple, modifient l'environnement des entreprises. Les revers tumultueux, tels que les guerres et les révolutions, et d'autres événements mineurs, tels que l'activisme social menacent toujours les entreprises. Par conséquent, les entreprises sont obligées de planifier et d'agir au-delà de leur environnement immédiat et étroit. La signification du risque politique a changé. Il y a quelques décennies, le risque politique pouvait se résumer en actions gouvernementales, telles que des réglementations liées à l'industrie. Aujourd'hui, cependant, les gouvernements ne sont plus le seul arbitre. Le risque politique du XXIe siècle a un sens plus large et plus complexe. Une guerre civile en Syrie entraîne une crise de réfugiés en Europe. Une manifestation anti-chinoise au Vietnam entraîne les ruptures de stock dans l'industrie du vêtement en Amérique du Nord. Rice et Zegart (2018) définissent le risque politique du XXIe siècle comme «la probabilité qu'une action politique puisse affecter de manière significative une entreprise». Les actions politiques soulignent donc l'impact croissant des facteurs générateurs de risques en dehors des institutions gouvernementales. Sur les marchés qui se caractérisent par une forte concurrence, les entreprises doivent prendre en compte tous les risques engendrés par les acteurs politiques, les journalistes, les militants dans la société civile, de réalisateurs de documentaires, etc. Historiquement, les révolutions, la nationalisation étaient au cœur du risque politique. Aujourd'hui les entreprises multinationales considèrent ce risque en tenant compte de plusieurs aspects. L'environnement politique du XXIe siècle constitue un important facteur externe d'incertitude pour les entreprises. Il peut donc limiter ou favoriser leurs possibilités de croissance et leur survie. Cette thèse aborde la relation entre le risque politique dans sa nouvelle définition et les décisions financières des entreprises. Jusqu'à présent, les études de recherche antérieures ne portaient que sur les mesures du risque politique au niveau des pays ou des secteurs d'activités en l'absence de mesures directes. Cette thèse retrace la façon dont le risque politique peut influer sur le comportement des entreprises américaines, en utilisant une nouvelle mesure de ce risque. Ma thèse est une compilation de trois études sur le risque politique et les choix financiers des entreprises. Dans mon premier article, j'examine l'effet du risque politique au niveau de l'entreprise sur les encaisses de trésorerie des entreprises. Le deuxième chapitre traite comment le risque politique affecte les crédits commerciaux inter-firmes. Dans le troisième chapitre, une nouvelle mesure du risque politique est développée et son effet sur les choix d'investissement et de financement des entreprises sera examinéThe world is now changing with lightening speed. The greatest of those changes are occurring in the political and technological spheres. Geopolitical shifts have brought politics and business closer together. Political upheavals are incessantly reshaping the circumstances in which individuals, societies, and companies operate, which doesn't make markets in total isolation from politics. Politics molds and constrains markets through its rules, norms, and institutions. Trade regimes, sanctions, and national laws, for instance, shape businesses' environment. Tumultuous reverses, such as wars and revolutions, and other minor events, such as social activism and cyber threats, still take firms by surprise. Therefore, firms are forced to plan and act beyond their immediate environment. The meaning of political risk has changed. A few decades ago, political risk could be summarized in governmental actions, such as industry-related regulations or assets seizing in dictatorships. Today, however, governments are no longer the only arbiter. The twenty-first-century political risk has a broader and more complicated meaning. A civil war in Syria results in a refugee crisis in Europe. An anti-Chinese protest in Vietnam fuels stock-outs in the clothing industry in America. Rice and Zegart (2018) define the twenty-first-century political risk as “the probability that a political action could affect a company in significant ways.” Put in the most elemental terms, political actions emphasize the growing impact of risk generators outside army barracks and party headquarters. In today's competitive markets, firms need to consider all risks engendered by the widening array of global political actors, journalists, social activists, documentary filmmakers, etc. Historically, revolutions, nationalization, seizure of assets were the political risk chorus. However, for the modern-day global firms consider this risk on much more and more aspects. Thus, companies, and particularly international firms see the market as a global place and they plan their strategies accordingly. SeaWorld story, among many others, points out that firms can be dramatically blindsided by political actions of small groups of people and the power of individuals charged by connective technologies. The twenty-first-century political environment is an important external factor of uncertainty for firms. It can, therefore, constrain or foster their growth opportunities and survival. This thesis addresses the relationship between the modern-day politics and corporate financial decisions. So far, prior research studies have only focused on country-level and sector-level measures of political risk in the absence of direct ones. This dissertation, instead, traces through the ways in which political risk can affect U.S. firms' behaviour, using a new firm-level proxy to measure the risk. My dissertation is a three-paper compilation of studies related to political risk and corporate finance. In my first paper, I examine the effect of firm-level political risk on corporate cash holdings and cash management. The second paper investigates whether firm-level political risk affects trade credit provision. Finally, the third paper tackles the issues in measurement of political risk and examines the effect of the novel political risk measure on corporate investment and financing decisions
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Dal, Aysenur Dal. "A Norm-Affect-Risk Model of Online Political Expression". The Ohio State University, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1531129886207416.
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Kellow, A. "Research into market measures of political risk and risk diversification as a motive direct investment". Thesis, University of Manchester, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.377747.
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Garcia, Anna Valentina Troeng. "The (non)-impact of democracy on levels of political risk. An evaluation of the relationship between levels of democracy and the political risk facing the oil and gas industry in Angola". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/96002.
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Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In a world where emerging markets are increasingly driving the world’s economic growth, and an increasing part of the world’s energy supply comes from politically unstable or undemocratic countries with less developed institutions and inadequate rule of law, the field of political risk has acquired especially great significance. In order to keep up with international and domestic demand, as well as maintain profit levels, there has been and will continue to be a search for new sources of petroleum reserves. This has pushed the extractive industries to invest in new territories, some of which pose potential risks for new investments. These trends are changing where and how oil and gas companies conduct their business, as many of the political risks that face the extractive industries stem from the political, institutional and structural framework of the host country. The core of this study has been the investigation of the assumption that high levels of democracy constitute low levels of political risk. The assumption that high levels of democracy constitute low levels of political risk implies, conversely, that low levels of democracy constitute high levels of political risk. The debate around this assumption is an essential part of this research study; its validity was tested through conducting an industry-specific political risk analysis, using the case of Statoil’s operations in Angola. Angola poses an interesting case for analyzing political risk in the oil and gas sector, as it exhibits many of the qualities that are found amongst these “new” actors in the oil industry. Furthermore, additional and new research on the risk of investing in these emerging markets is more relevant than ever before. The stipulation of the relevance of this research study is based on the following two main points: firstly, the general decline in the level of democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa; secondly, the fact that many of the current oil and gas resources are located in these very areas, i.e. in undemocratic and unstable countries. Moreover, there is little research on the effects the level of democracy has on the industry-specific risk, in this case the oil and gas industry. Hence further research on this area is both relevant and necessary. The political risk analysis shows that the political risks that face Statoil in the undemocratic nation of Angola are in fact not high. The analysis concludes with a result that indicates that investment in Angola poses a medium level of political risk. This challenges the abovementioned assumption, as the political risks are not necessarily higher in an undemocratic country. This study finds that the political risk associated with Angola is in the short- to mid-term seen as stable and medium; however, there are simmering tendencies and trends that currently point to a different long-term political risk picture.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In ‘n wêreld waar opkomende markte die ekonomiese groei van die wêreld toenemend voortdryf en ‘n toenemende deel van die wêreld se energie voorraad van politiese onstabiele of ondemokratiese lande met minder ontwikkelde instellings en onvoldoende regering kom, het die veld van politieke risiko groot waarde gekry. Om by te hou by die internasionale en plaaslike vraag, sowel as om winsvlakke te handhaaf, is en sal daar altyd ‘n soektog na nuwe bronne van petroleum reserwes wees. Dit het die ekstraksie industrieë gedruk om in nuwe gebiede te belê waarvan sommiges potensiële risiko’s het vir nuwe beleggings. Hierdie neigings verander waar en hoe olie- en petrolmaatskappye hul besigheid doen omdat baie van die politieke risiko’s wat die ekstraksie industrieë moet hanteer voortvloei uit die politieke, institusionele en strukturele raamwerk van die gasheerland. Die kern van hierdie studie was die ondersoek van die aanname dat hoë vlakke van demokrasie aanleiding gee tot lae vlakke van politieke risiko. Die aanname dat hoë vlakke van demokrasie aanleiding gee tot hae vlakke van politieke risiko impliseer dat lae vlakke van demokrasie aanleiding gee tot hoë vlakke van politieke risiko. Die debat rondom hierdie aanname is ‘n noodsaaklike deel van hierdie navorsingstudie; die geldigheid daarvan is getoets deur die uitvoering van ‘n industrie-spesifieke politieke risiko analise, deur gebruik te maak van die geval van Statoil se operering in Angola. Angola is ‘n interessante geval vir die ontleding van politieke risiko in die olie en petrolsektor, omdat dit baie van die kwaliteite toon wat onder die “nuwe” rolspelers in die olie-industrie gevind word. Verder is bykomende en nuwe navorsing op die risiko van belegging in hierdie opkomende markte meer relevant. Die stipulasie van hierdie relevansie van hierdie navorsingstudie is gebaseer op die volgende twee punte: eerstens, die algemene afname in die vlak van demokrasie in Sub-Sahara Afrika; tweedens, die feit dat baie van die huidige olie en petrolbronne in hierdie areas geleë is, d.i in ondemokratiese en onstabiele lande. Daar is ook min navorsing oor die uitwerking wat demokrasie het op die industrie-spesifieke risiko, in hierdie geval die olie en petroleum industrie. Daarom is verdere navorsing in hierdie area beide relevant en noodsaaklik. Die politieke risiko ontleding wys dat die politieke risikos wat Statoil in die gesig staar in die ondemokrastiese nasie van Angola nie hoog is nie. Die ontleding sluit af met ‘n gevolgtrekking wat toon dat belegging in Angola ‘n medium vlak van politieke risiko toon. Dit daag die bogenoemde aanname uit, omdat die politieke risiko’s nie noodwendig hoog is in ‘n ondemokratiese land nie. Hierdie studie vind dat die politieke risiko wat met Angola geassosieer word in die kort tot middel termyn is en as stabiel en medium beskou word; daar is egter neigings wat dui op ‘n ander langtermyn politieke risiko prent.
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Intscher, Nicholas. "The fragmentation of political risk and MNCs' supply chain linkages". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2020. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128635.
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Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science, May, 2020Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 260-279).
Political science research devotes considerable attention to the impact of political risk on multinational companies' (MNCs') behavior. However, this body of research suffers from two main oversights: (1) a disproportionate focus on MNCs' investment decisions, and (2) an assumption that political risk takes a common, centralized form across countries. In this dissertation, I redirect, attention to the political determinants of MNCs' supply chain linkages. I argue that these linkages represent a risk-mitigating strategy for MNCs, and one that is particularly well suited for dealing with environments where the sources of political risk are spread throughout the state apparatus -- which I refer to as fragmented political risk. To test this theory, I draw on both cross-sectional survey data of MNCs in Sub-Saharan Africa and firm-level panel data from Indonesia -- a country that experienced a profound fragmentation in the structure of political risk. The principal finding of this research is that fragmented political risk causes MNCs to increase their use of local suppliers, with particularly strong effects among those that are (1) more vulnerable to political risk, and (2) have a greater capacity to adopt linkages, in general. These findings qualify research on the political determinants of FDI by showing that MNCs, and not merely states, are capable of resolving political risk in the host country.
by Nicholas Intscher.
Ph. D.
Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science
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Rasaei, Janet, i Kim Nguyen. "Political Risk in Multinational Corporations’ Capital Structure : Evidence from Singapore". Thesis, Umeå universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-45273.
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In this paper, we examine the relationship between political risk as an international environmental determinant of capital structure as well as other factors that contribute to capital structure including leverage, foreign exchange risk, agency costs of debt, and collateral value of assets. We conducted this research on a sample of 200 Singaporean, non-financial, listed domiciled multinational firms over the period of 2005 to 2009. The results suggest that political risk is irrelevant to the multinational capital structure, foreign exchange risk, agency costs of debt, and (netted) collateral value of assets. We find that the results remain unchanged after controlling for size and industry. The findings produce evidence that foreign exchange risk, as another international factor is also irrelevant to the Singaporean multinational capital structure choice. Additionally, agency costs of debt and (netted) fixed assets have a negative association with leverage for Singaporean multinational corporations.
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Lel, Ugur. "Political risk in Quebec, firm valuation, and business relocation announcements". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0004/MQ43642.pdf.
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Surkova, Marina. "Assessing political risk of portfolio investment in the Russian economy". Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.275387.
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GARDINER, Gabriel James. "Political risk in emerging Markets During na Era of Globalization". Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 2016. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/18712.
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OEA- Organização dos Estados Americanos
This dissertation attempts to analyze the concept of political risk, its evolution and application both within the academic and market setting. An endeavor to contribute to the quantification of the political risk field is made via econometric modeling. Overall, 6 different indicators for political risk are employed in the empirical analysis. The results show that political risk is a highly significant determinant to foreign investment inflows on emerging market countries. Though political risk is a phenomenon that is present in all countries both highly industrialized and still developing, this study is focused on the emerging market economy. Due to the rise in importance of the emerging market within the global economy, special emphasis is dedicated towards the new capitalist tools developed by the administrators of the emerging market economy.
Esta dissertação tenta analisar o conceito de risco político, sua evolução e aplicação tanto acadêmica quanto mercadológica. Com um modelo econométrico, pretende-se contribuir para a quantificação no campo do risco político. O trabalho emprega seis indicadores diferentes de risco político. Os resultados mostram que o risco político é um determinante altamente significativo do fluxo de investimento estrangeiro direto nos países de mercado emergente. Embora o risco político seja um fenômeno presente em todos os países, altamente industrializados e também nos ainda em desenvolvimento, este estudo se foca nas economias de mercado emergentes. Devido à crescente importância dos mercados emergentes na economia global, ênfase especial é dedicada aos novos instrumentos capitalistas (fundo soberano, empresa estatal e campeão nacional) desenvolvidos por administradores de economias de mercado emergente.
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Jaffard, Pierre(Pierre J. ). "Lobbying as a hedge on political risk : when size matters". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2020. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126971.
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Thesis: S.M. in Management Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, May, 2020Cataloged from the official PDF of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 51-53).
I develop a three-period asset pricing model with heterogeneity in firms size and a government that introduces a policy distortion. I find that large firms can better hedge the political uncertainty associated with this policy change through lobbying, which leads them to earn lower expected returns. I provide two strands of empirical evidence consistent with the model predictions. The first one looks at the behavior of a blue versus red industries around the unexpected results of the 2016 US Presidential election. The second one uses portfolio sorting and double-sorting to reach consistent conclusions.
by Pierre Jaffard.
S.M. in Management Research
S.M.inManagementResearch Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management
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Boettcher, William A. "Prudence or peril : presidential risk behavior in foreign policy /". The Ohio State University, 1997. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1487947908403168.
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Tibrewala, Aarushi. "Risk and Returns: The Impact of Political Risk on Financial Returns in Emerging and Developed Markets". Scholarship @ Claremont, 2018. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1903.
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This paper studies if a change in political risk has a significant impact on the stock returns of countries. Additionally, the paper assesses if this change in political risk impacts stock returns differently in emerging and developed countries. The paper conducts a risk based portfolio analysis and a linear cross-sectional regression analysis in order to find a conclusive result. The portfolio analysis, which replicates a study carried out by Diamonte, Liew, and Stevens (1996), reveals that there is a difference in the impact that change in political risk has in developed and emerging countries. The regression analysis finds that change in political risk does impact stock returns but there is no statistically significant difference in this impact between emerging and developed countries. The regression analysis also finds that the existing level of risk does not significantly affect the impact that growth in political risk has on stock returns.
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Myers, Brett W. "Effects of the political process on financial topics". Diss., Restricted to subscribing institutions, 2007. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1495960301&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=1564&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Blomquist, Lars Borge. "Political-security risk in the oil and gas industry : the impact of terrorism on risk management and mitigation". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/96673.
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Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: International oil and gas companies are experiencing an increase in terrorist attacks. After the oil and gas industry became a legitimate target for terrorist groups in the 1990s the number of attacks have increased yearly, with a spike after the 9/11 attacks. In today’s interconnected world political risk is not only about the relationship between the host government and the company. Oil and gas companies may experience risks on a transnational, national and human security level. Because of this, the success of new investments often depends on the successful utilization of risk management strategies. This research study focuses on the importance of political-security risk in the oil and gas industry. This is a risk-management tool to be used before and during international operations; it enables companies to be better prepared to deal with risks that may arise. In January 2013 the oil and gas industry experienced one of its deadliest attacks. The In Amenas gas facility in Algeria was attack by terrorists and in a four-day siege 40 people lost their lives. This forced the oil and gas industry to reconsider its focus on security management. As one of the contractors at the facility, Statoil undertook a thorough analysis of security at the site as well as of the company´s corporate security risk management. The report revealed a lack of focus on political-security risk. Accordingly, the main research question in this study concerns the effect of terrorism on politicalsecurity risk in the oil and gas industry; it specifically analyzes the In Amenas attack. The aim of this study is to answer this question along with two sub-questions, which complement and support the main research question. The first sub-question concerns the factors that contributed to the attack in In Amenas: why was risk mitigation not successful? The second sub-question looks at the possibilities for international oil and gas companies to mitigate the risk of terrorism; or is this a risk that can only be managed? This study argues that political-security risk has not been used to its full potential in the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas industry has always focused on site security, but a broader more holistic approach to risk management has been lacking. However, as a result of the In Amenas incident, the industry has become more willing to have a new discussion on security and this has resulted in small changes in the way companies operate.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Internasionale olie- en gasmaatskappye ondervind ‘n toename in terreur aanvalle. Nadat die olie en gasindustrie ‘n wettige teiken vir tereurgroepe in die 1990s geword het, het die aantal aanvalle per jaar toegeneem, met ‘n skerp styging na die 9/11 aanvalle. In vandag se onderling verbonde wêreld hou die politiese risiko nie net verband met die verhouding tussen die gasregering en die maatskappy nie. Olie- en gasmaatskappye mag risiko’s op trans-nasionale, nasionale en menslike sekuriteitsvlak ervaar. As gevolg hiervan maak die sukses van nuwe beleggings dikwels staat op die suksesvolle gebruik van risiko-bestuur strategieë. Hierdie navorsingstudie fokus op die belang van ‘n politiese veiligheidsrisiko in die olie en gasindustrie. Hierdie is ‘n risiko-bestuur gereedskap wat gebruik sal word voor en tydens internasionale operasies; dit stel die maatskappye in staat om beter voorbereid te wees om die risiko’s wat mag voorkom te hanteer. In Januarie 2013 het die olie en gasindustrie een van die dodelikste aanvalle beleef. Die In Amenas olie-aanleg in Algerië is deur terroriste aangeval en tydens ‘n 4 dae lange inval het 40 mense hul lewens verloor. Dit het die olie en gasindustrie gedwing om hul fokus op veiligheidsbestuur te heroorweeg. As een van die kontrakteur by die aanleg het Statoil ‘n deeglike ontleding van die sekuriteit by die plek sowel as die maatskappy se korporatiewe veiligheid risikobestuur onderneem. Die verslag het ‘n gebrek aan fokus op die politiese veiligheidsrisiko getoon. Die hoof navorsingsvraag in hierdie studie het betrekking op die effek van terreur op politiese veiligheidsrisiko in die olie- en gasindustrie; dit ontleed spesifiek die In Amenas aanval. Die doel van hierdie studie is om hierdie vraag tesame met twee sub-vrae wat die hoof navorsingsvraag komplimenteer en ondersteun. Die eerste sub-vraag het betrekking op die faktore wat bygedra het tot die aanval in In Amenas: hoekom was risiko mitigasie onsuksesvol? Die tweede sub-vraag kyk na die moontlikhede vir internasionale olie- en gasmaatskappye om die risiko van terreur te versag; of is hierdie ‘n risiko wat slegs bestuur kan word? Hierdie studie argumeneer dat politiese veiligheidsrisiko nie tot sy volle potensiaal in die olie en gasindustrie gebruik is nie. Die olie en gasindustrie het altyd gefokus op die veiligheid van die plek, maar ‘n breër holistiese benadering tot risiko-bestuur het ontbreek. As gevolg van die In Amenas insident, het die industrie meer gewillig geword om ‘n nuwe bespreking oor veiligheid te hê en dit het klein veranderinge in die manier waarop maatskappye opereer tot gevolg gehad.
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Stoddard, Edward James Armstrong. "European upstream energy cooperation : political risk, milieu-shaping and politico-commercial relations in the Caspian Sea region". Thesis, University of Portsmouth, 2013. https://researchportal.port.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/european-upstream-energy-cooperation(d586315c-29bc-481b-a07f-80a2e76ebb89).html.
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The development of an energy role for the European Union has been a divisive area of EU policy. The competing interests and differing perspectives of member states, EU institutions and commercial energy players have hampered the development of downstream European internal energy markets, obstructed the construction of mid-stream transportation routes that would diversify European energy supplies and hindered the EU’s ability to ‘speak with one voice’ towards major suppliers. However, despite widespread scholarly coverage of EU energy issues, the tri-lateral upstream interaction between European institutions, member states and energy companies in the countries where oil and gas are produced has received less academic attention. This thesis seeks to address this lacuna in the literature through an examination of upstream intra-EU cooperation in the Caspian region. This study finds that the EU’s upstream oil and gas policy in the Caspian is, relatively speaking, more coherent than many other areas of European energy policy. In the Caspian, European convergence forms, in particular, around the EU’s collective political risk mitigation and market facilitation role. Employing an interdisciplinary International Political Economy approach, the thesis examines how the EU’s model of European energy supply entails dependence on the commercial sector which compels political actors to support companies in strategic regions through milieu-shaping energy governance and commercial (energy) diplomacy. The thesis demonstrates how European actors share similar upstream risk perceptions, promote overlapping security and market-based policy perspectives and how both member states and companies increasingly encourage an EU foreign policy role in meeting these upstream challenges. In doing so, this research examines the EU’s risk-mitigating external energy governance, the EU’s diplomatic practice in upstream energy and the dynamics of European politico-commercial interaction in the Caspian - core aspects of an under-researched, but ultimately increasingly cooperative, part of EU external energy policy.
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Howard, Christopher O. "Approaches to the problems of political risk in foreign direct investment". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/18270.
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This thesis examines the challenges multinational enterprises face from political risk when making and operating foreign direct investments. The thesis considers political risk and a wide variety of approaches to its analysis and provides insight into the process of foreign direct investment, the nature of the political threat facing it, foreign investment decision making by multinationals, and the tools developed in the commercial, academic, and governmental arenas to avoid and combat the effects of political risk. In essence, the thesis addresses a business application of theories and methodologies used in political studies. The first hypothesis is: if political risk is properly understood as a phenomenon of the political environment, then it a) defies direct quantification and b) can be explained as a series of discrete elements which can be analyzed separately. The second hypothesis is: if political risk is properly understood as a series of non-quantifiable elements, analysis of political risk cannot be depended upon alone to protect multinational enterprises from political risk in foreign direct investment. The first hypothesis is addressed through a critical review and consideration of business and political risk literature. Two analytical tools are developed in this process: a ladder of cognition consisting of a series of conditions of knowledge which can be held regarding a specific risk, and indicating the type and approximate accuracy of analysis which can be undertaken of such risk; and a representation of the political risk equation as a two stage process consisting of an abstract (environmental) risk event and a discrete effect which the event may or may not have on a specific investment. The second hypothesis is addressed through a critical review of methods of political risk analysis including "qualitative" approaches with roots in traditional studies and "quantitative" approaches derived from statistical analysis and behavioralist-based determinism. Critiques of each approach include operational strengths and weaknesses, performance histories (when applicable), conceptual and practical capabilities from the perspective of the analytical tools described above, and theoretical strengths and weaknesses from the perspective of the political studies discipline. Both hypotheses are supported and the thesis concludes by reviewing tools which can be used by multinationals to manage and mitigate the effects of political risk and considering additional academic work in this arena which would be useful in developing this application of political studies.
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Putten, Frans-Paul van der. "Corporate behaviour and political risk : Dutch companies in China, 1903-1941 /". Leiden : Leiden University, 2001. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb38869445b.
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Gupta, Rishab. "The relationship between political risk insurance policies and international investment agreements". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2018. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:31cb5b45-bd63-45f2-a62d-2d869ab05dbf.
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This thesis analyses the relationship between political risk insurance ("PRI") policies issued by public providers such as the Overseas Private Investment Corporation ("OPIC") and international investment agreements ("IIAs"). The analysis proceeds in three parts. Part I explains the basic features of the PRI industry and compares IIAs with PRI policies. Generally speaking, IIAs provide broad protections that are available to investors for free, whereas PRI policies provide specific and narrower protections, which are more effective and easier to enforce. Ultimately, both PRI policies and IIAs are risk-mitigation tools that should be evaluated together by investors at the time of making foreign investments. Part II explores the impact of PRI policies on the development of international law. Of particular importance are subrogation provisions found in most IIAs, which allow PRI providers to 'step into the shoes' of the investors and seek recovery from the host State. PRI providers should therefore take account of rights available to them under IIAs when assessing their recovery options. Further, as public insurers are government owned agencies, their actions give rise to State practice that may be relevant for interpretation of treaties in accordance with Articles 31(3)(a) and 31(3)(b) of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. Finally, Part III illustrates the contribution that OPIC jurisprudence can make to international law by studying specific determinations made by OPIC. Two OPIC determinations are particularly revealing: the Mid-American Holding/Indonesia Determination and the BoA/India Determination. In both cases, OPIC applied international law to determine whether the host State's actions breached protections contained in the policies and, upon making payment to the investor, OPIC relied on international law to seek recovery fom the host States. Finallly, Part III analyses OPIC jurisprudence in the areas of attribution under international law and quantification of compensation - the analysis shows there is substantial scope for cross-fertilisation between OPIC's jurisprudence and that of investment treaty tribunals.
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Moreira, Filho Omar Penna. "Determinants for political risk insurance of direct investments in emerging markets". reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/9552.
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Esta dissertação analisa os principais determinantes para investidores contratarem seguro de proteção de riscos políticos (PRI) para seus investimentos diretos, assim com o racional de sair de um PRI não renovando suas políticas. Esta dissertação contribui para a literatura existente sobre PRI, investigando os principais motivadores para PRI, tais como, riscos políticos, riscos econômicos, capacidade do patrocinador, instrumento utilizado para realizar o investimento (horizonte do investimento) determina combinações de PRI utilizando um modelo binário de resposta não linear. Um banco de dados único da Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) no período de 1990 até 2010, contendo informações sobre 693 investimentos incluindo sua cobertura para: seguro de risco de conversibilidade, seguro para risco de expropriação, riscos de guerras e distúrbios civis e riscos de quebra de contrato. Entretanto, percebemos que 47% destes seguros não permanecem ativos até o prazo originalmente contratado. Adicionalmente, instituições financeiras como garantidoras utilizam proporcionalmente mais dívida do que capital como instrumento de investimento e são largamente seguradas dentro da União Européia (EU). Por outro lado, investidores nos BRICs tendem a cobrir primariamente seus investimentos em infraestrutura. Resultados empíricos incluem que um aumento nos riscos de quebra de contrato e guerra civil estão totalmente correlacionados com a renovação de contratos de seguro, assim como um aumento da percepção de risco do pais que está recebendo o investimento.
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Andrews, Richard Quentin Dunkley. "The identification and measurement of political risk : toward a firm-centric approach". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15948.
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Bibliography: pages 168-181.Political risk analysis is the study of economic and social discontinuities and changes which result in speculative constraints and opportunities for transnational business. This paper explores the problem of establishing definitional congruity at conceptual and operational levels of analysis and recommends the adoption of firm-centric approaches to assessing risk originating in the political environment. Conclusions are arrived at by means of partial induction, based on a rigorous comparative examination of a comprehensive body of literature. The first section delineates various fiduciary frameworks, historical and definitional issues, covering the foundational concepts of certainty, uncertainty, chance and risk. Current definitions of political risk are compended, and a new definition is suggested, compatible with the day-to-day operations of globalised firms. Models and methods for the measurement and identification of political risk are reviewed in the second part of the paper. Conceptual and operational incongruencies are investigated from a perspective which aims at establishing the need for a firm-specific conceptual schematicisation of political risk. Approaches based on aggregation by macro or micro distinction are rejected in favour of the proposed conceptual model. Finally, the remaining part of the paper considers current and past models which place the firm at the centre of the analytical procedure. An abstract model of the firm is described for the purpose of including constraints on business interests, norms, rules, practices and procedures, profitability and other goals. Some empirical data is discussed with a view to confirming the necessity for adopting firm-centric approaches. The conclusion recommends further research in the form of empirical case studies which consider risk in relation to the individual firm.
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van, Taack William. "Socioeconomic risk and the class-basis of reasoning during market transitions". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2016. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:bf708266-82bc-4dce-bee3-b8c6234a412f.
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This dissertation investigates the nature by which social class membership and identity figure in judgements of transition institutions for the citizens of post-communist Central and Eastern Europe. Using a unique dataset and a series of novel conceptual frameworks, it argues that social class is, in effect, an operationalisation of socioeconomic risk and vulnerability-a premise from which several important implications derive. Drawing on social identity theory, it presents and tests a model of self-conceptualisation, grounded in the belief that individuals variously identify with their social classes, depending on their perceptions of shared socioeconomic risk. From this, it follows that strong identifiers should derive more relevant information about the emerging market system from class-level economic experiences, and therefore accord these cues greater weight in judgements about transition institutions. Beyond testing this theory of interpersonal variation, it invokes signal detection theory from cognitive psychology to determine whether cross-group differences in economic vulnerability are responsible for observed class differentials in reliance on class-based economic cues. It then takes a wider view of class-based economic cognition by considering how the process of transition, itself, influenced the evaluative calculus of post-communist citizens. Building on cognitive mobilisation theory in political science, it is posited that on-going exposure to the prevailing economic system endows these citizens with the ability to link their class-level economic experiences to the effects of the market mechanism. The analysis largely supports the constituent hypotheses, as well as the larger notion that perceptions of shared socioeconomic risk led social class experiences to figure prominently in the minds of post-communist citizens.
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Phillips, Lauren M. "Political risk in emerging market economies : democratic politics, sovereign debt and financial market volatility in Brazil and Mexico". Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2006. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1956/.
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While the literature on the globalisation of financial flows has focused on the impact of highly mobile capital on domestic political choice and policy variation, less has been said about the impact of democratic politics on financial market performance. Existing studies have tended to limit their analysis to the impact of elections on markets. This thesis re-examines standard notions of political risk, hypothesising that political risk arises from the contours of democratic institutions, and suggests that institutions play a direct, rather than secondary, role in generating financial market volatility through the production of political news. A quantitative approach is adopted to examining both static and dynamic perceptions of market risk across emerging market countries, with particular focus on Brazil and Mexico. Democratic political risk is defined as the uncertainty and instability arising from contestation over power and policy, which is more likely to occur in states with many veto players who have diverse policy preferences and low internal cohesion. States with such institutions are more likely to produce high levels of political news, in turn interpreted by market participants as political risk. The impact of such news is likely to be greater than that of other information significant to the market given the unpredictability and uncertainty of political information, as well as the difficulties in quantifying its impact. By examining the empirical determinants of sovereign bond spreads, as well as the causes of volatility in Brazilian and Mexican bond markets, the thesis demonstrates that political variables add significant explanatory power to models of sovereign debt premiums and that financial markets are highly reactive to democratic politics in emerging market countries.
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Duncan, Stewart M. "Political risk analysis and economic reform : investing in the Indian electricity sector". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/49776.
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Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The definition of political risk and the methodology of its assessment have changed since the inception of the discipline midway through the last century. This assignment assesses the usefulness of a new quantitative technique that uses political constraints and the policy preferences of political actors to construct a measure of political risk. Integrating the findings of the resulting Political Constraints Index with an analysis of the political economy of the Indian Electricity Sector, the assignment demonstrates that, contrary to the original interpretations of the index, high levels of political constraints and political competition may propagate a disabling policy regime and be detrimental to the investor, despite the stated commitment of the incumbent government to policy reform. The implication of these findings is that, to avoid incorrect interpretation, the Political Constraint Index should be augmented by a comprehensive qualitative assessment of the industry in question.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die definisie van politieke risiko en die metodologie om dit te ontleed, het verander sedert die onstaan van hierdie dissipline gedurende die middel van die laaste eeu. Hierdie opdrag ontleed die nuttigheid van 'n nuwe kwantitatiewe tegniek wat die politieke beperkings en beleidsvoorkeure van politieke rolspelers gebruik om 'n maatstaf van politieke risiko te verskaf. Die opdrag se integrasie van die bevindinge van die resulterende Politieke Beperkings Indeks met 'n analise van die politieke ekonomie van die Indiese Elektrisiteits Sektor bewys dat, teenstrydig met oorspronklike interpretasies van die indeks, hoe vlakke van politieke beperkings en politieke kompetisie 'n deaktiveringsbeleid regime kan kweek wat nadelig is vir die belegger, ten spyte van die huidige regering se verklaarde toegewydheid tot beleidshervorming. Die implikasie van hierdie bevindinge is dat, om foutiewe interpretasie te vermy, die Politieke Beperkings Indeks verbeter moet word deur 'n omvattende kwalitatiewe ontleding van die verlangde industrie.
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Tan, Bin. "Growth, financial development, market liquidity and risk". Thesis, Brunel University, 2010. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/8205.
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This thesis,firstly, studies the impact of financial liberalization and political instability on economic growth and quantitatively examines the relative importance of the identified underling reasons of Argentine riddle by using an innovative econometric methodology and unique data set: it presents power ARCH estimates for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. The main results show that the long-run effect of financial liberalization on economic growth is positive while the short-run effect is negative, albeit substantially smaller. The political instability effects are substantially larger in the short-run than in the long-run. We also investigate potential mechanisms for the effects of financial liberalization and political instability on economic growth: direct impact or happening through the variation of growth volatility. Our results also suggest that financial development, trade openness and political instability are the main factors to explain the Argentine decline. Furthermore, real business cycle variability - growth relationship and the link between inflation and its uncertainty are investigated by using monthly data of four Asian countries/regions (Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) and parametric power ARCH methodology to proxy uncertainty. We fnd that more uncertainty about output leads to a higher rate of growth in three of the four countries/regions and the form of the uncertainty matters. Output growth reduces its uncertainty in all countries/regions via inflation uncertainty except Singapore. For all countries/regions, inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by Friedman. On the other hand, increased uncertainty affects inflation positively in Japan and Singapore, which support the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis. We find a negative sign for Taiwan which is in accordance with the Holland hypothesis when error term was normally distributed, however, this result is not statistically significant when the student-t distribution is applied. Interestingly, South Korea’s data reveals a positive sign initially, however, it turns around when a structural dummy is incorporated. This dramatic outcome in favour of the Holland hypothesis, and chimes in with Dueker and Kim (1999), who claim that the inflation was strictly controlled by the South Korean monetary authority. In addition, this thesis investigates two-way causal relationships between spread, volatility and volume in the FTSE100 stock index over the period from 1992 to 2004 by using bivariate AR-FI-GARCH model and multiple measurements of risk and spread. The measurements of the spread include relative bid-ask spread, effective bid-ask spread, the inventory cost component of the bid-ask spread and the information cost component of the bid-ask spread. Risk is proxied by two measurements of price volatility: the close-to-close volatility and the range-based volatility. We also take the impact of electronic trading into account. Our results suggest that the spread and volume are positively impacted by volatility simultaneously. In addition, both volatility and volume are negatively affected by the spread. Furthermore, we find that the inventory cost component of the spread has a negative effect on volatility, in contrast, the information component of the spread positively impacts volatility. These results support the argument that speculation generates volatility in the market and higher transaction costs bene t stability of the market.