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Brink, Charlotte H. "Measuring political risk as risks to foreign investment : a computer-assisted model for analysing and managing political risk". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/52929.
Pełny tekst źródłaENGLISH ABSTRACT: As the title suggests, the major challenge that this study faces is to set out and design a model for analysing and enabling the management of political risk as investment risk - a model that is both sensitive to and reflective of the comprehensive business and investment climate in a country, not only credit or country risk, or only pure political risk in its narrowest definition. In reading about past and more recent research in the field of political risk analysis, it becomes clear that many authors begin by noting the diversity and the discrepancies of the existing definitions of political risk, but evidence in political risk insurance shows that the major perceived political risks that investors insure their interests against seem to be confiscation, expropriation and nationalisation. In the light of this study's findings though, a case can be put forward for urging that the conceptualisation of political risk be extended to further include any or all of the micro political risk factors and their indicators that have been identified to ensure that political events do not impact negatively on a foreign company's profitability. Foreign investors put assets at risk to achieve their objectives and the assessment of these risks, including political risks, is the key to successful operations. Opportunities and risks are often two sides of the same coin and political risk comprises a large part of the environmental forces in terms of the management challenges a Multinational Company (MNC) faces in any investment climate. A firm's foreign investment strategy deals with the positioning of the organisation in an uncertain host country environment and investment climate. This study attempts to explain how a firm's political risk exposure, which refers to the sensitivity of a firm's projected profitability and operationability in a host country to changes in the investment climate, could be managed and reduced. It is hoped that political risk analysis and management can assist foreign operations in managing the risks that might have otherwise proven to be destructive to profitability and operationability. It is irresponsible to present a potential investor with a risk assessment that does not incorporate political risk factors and their indicators, let alone environmental, societal and socio-economic risk factor indicators. Ultimately any business climate, regardless of the country being studied, is underwritten by a political system, political climate, political culture and business culture of the system in which foreign business wishes to operate profitably. What is often labelled as unnecessary and irrelevant detail in risk analysis often results in a lack of using micro risk factors and their indicators and an underestimation of the importance of such micro risk indicators. Hopefully this study takes up the challenge of showing that political risk can be managed and political risk analysis can be made more precise - that it is possible to measure and manage political risk.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Soos die titel van hierdie studie voorstel is een van die grootste uitdagings die ontwerp van 'n model vir die analise van politieke risiko as beleggingsrisiko - 'n model wat ter selfde tyd sensitief is vir en weerspieëlend van 'n land se algemeen omvattende besigheids- en beleggingsklimaat, en nie slegs suiwer politieke risiko in die nouste sin van die woord nie. 'n Literatuurstudie van meer onlangse navorsing, asook navorsing wat in die verlede gedoen is oor politieke risiko en die analise daarvan, dui daarop dat baie outeurs melding maak van die diversiteit en teenstrydighede in die bestaande definisies van politieke risiko. Die teenwoordigheid van versekering teen politieke risiko wys egter daarop dat die primêre politieke risiko's waarteen beleggers hulle belange verseker meesal nasionalisering en onteiening is, asook die beslaglegging op beleggings. Teen die agtergrond van hierdie studie se bevindinge, kan daar egter 'n saak uitgemaak word vir die verbreeding van die konseptualisering van politieke risiko om enige of alle van die mikro-politieke risiko faktorindikatore wat in hierdie studie identifiseer word in te sluit, om sodoende te verseker dat die negatiewe gevolge wat politieke gebeure moontlik mag inhou vir 'n buitelandse maatskappy se belange, sover moontlik beperk word. Buitelandse beleggers stel bates bloot aan risiko's ten einde voorafgestelde doelwitte te bereik en die assessering van hierdie risiko's, insluitende politieke risiko's, is 'n groot bydraende' faktor tot die suksesvolle bedryf van buitelandse beleggings. Geleenthede en risiko's is dikwels twee kante van diesIefde muntstuk en politieke risiko maak 'n groot deel uit van die uitdagende beleggingsomgewing waarin die bestuur van 'n multinasionale korporasie (MNK) daagliks moet funksioneer. 'n Maatskappy se buitelandse beleggingstrategie handel met die posisionering van die organisasie in die onvoorspelbare beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land. Hierdie studie poog ook om te verduidelik hoe die mate waarin 'n firma blootgestel word aan politieke risiko, met ander woorde die sensitiwiteit van 'n firma se voorgenome winsgewendheid en bedryf teenoor veranderinge in die beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land, bestuur en verminder kan word. Daar word gehoop dat politieke risiko analise en die bestuur daarvan 'n bydra kan lewer tot buitelandse besighede se bestuur van hierdie risiko's, wat andersins 'n vemietgende impak kan hê op die winsgewendheid van buitelandse bedrywighede. Dit is onverantwoordelik om aan 'n buitelandse belegger 'n risiko analise voor te lê wat nie politieke risiko faktore en die daarmee gepaardgaande indikatore insluit nie. Die studie argumenteer verder dat faktorindikatore wat die fisiese omgewing, sosiale asook sosio-ekonomiese faktore aanspreek ook in 'n risiko analise ingesluit moet word. Oplaas is enige besigheidsklimaat, nieteenstaande die land wat bestudeer word, onderskryf deur 'n politieke stelsel, politieke klimaat, politieke kultuur en besigheidskultuur van die stelsel waarin die buitelandse besigheid winsgewende resultate as doelwit het. Wat dikwels beskou word as onnodige en irrelevante detail in risiko analise lei dikwels tot 'n gebrek aan die insluiting van mikro-risiko faktore en hulle indikatore weens 'n onderskatting van die noodsaaklikheid daarvan om juis sulke mikro-risiko faktorindikatore in 'n risiko analise in te bou. Hierdie studie aanvaar hopelik die uitdaging om te wys dat politieke risiko tog bestuur kan word en dat politieke risiko analise tog meer eksak gemaak kan word - dat dit wel moontlik is om politieke risiko te meet en bestuur.
Nelson, Laura Kathleen. "Risky business: social media metrics and political risk analysis". reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13626.
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Quantifying country risk – and in particular, political risk – poses great difficulties for business, institutions, and investors alike. As economic indicators are updated far less frequently than Facebook feeds, it can be challenging for political risk analysts to understand, and more importantly measure, what is taking place in real time on the ground. However, with the growing availability of big data from social media platforms such as Twitter, now is an opportune moment to examine the types of social media metrics that are available and the limitations to applying them to country risk analysis, particularly during episodes of political upheaval. This study, using the qualitative method of bibliographical research, identifies the current landscape of data available from Twitter, analyzes the current and potential methods of analysis, and discusses their possible application to the field of political risk analysis. After a thorough review of the field to date, and given the expected near- to medium-term technological advancements, this study concludes that despite obstacles like the cost of data storage, limitations of real-time analysis, and the potential for data manipulation, the potential benefits of the application of social media metrics to the field of political risk analysis, particularly for structured-qualitative and quantitative models, outweigh the challenges.
A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de 'big data' de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.
Kettis, Magdalena. "The Challenge of Political Risk : Exploring the political risk management of Swedsih multinational corporations". Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-112.
Pełny tekst źródłaDavidsson, Jukka. "Political Risk in Finland : Does the financial crisis in 1990’s consist of political risk?" Thesis, Uppsala University, Department of Business Studies, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-8176.
Pełny tekst źródłaThesis political risk in Finland will explain the real nature of the financial crisis in Finland in the beginning of 1990’s. Before 1990’s Finland used to be a closed and controlled market. The liberalisation of the financial market began in 1980’s. This process caused the depression in Finland. Partly there is truth behind this statement. The restructuration of Finnish economy and state policy needed more. The government formed collaboration with the legal system and major actors in Finland. Financial institutions and large corporations were provided a parachute. The mentioned companies got a different treatment in front of the law than small and medium size companies. Government together with financial institutions made a plan for solving the problems what the market faced. They signed secret agreements upon execution of the plan. Actually, the three actors made a plot for the rest of the people in Finland. This is a thesis of political risk in a developed country called Finland. Political risk is not only concentrated on undeveloped countries. The existence of political risk is increasing throughout the world. Therefore, it is important to point out the possibility of political risk in developed world.
Lindeberg, Martin, i Staffan Mörndal. "Managing Political Risk : A contextual approach". Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Management and Economics, 2002. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-1029.
Pełny tekst źródłaBackground: The world is turning into a global market place. At the same time as internationalisation and investments in emerging markets have increased, multinational enterprises are as a consequence exposed to more and more risks of various kinds. One of these risks is political risk. It implicates the risk of negative effects for a company due to political actions. Due to the increased activity in developing countries, the process of risk management has become more important the last years. The perception of the political environment is influenced by personal or organisational factors. Even though it is possible that the political risk is managed differently depending on contextual factors, there is, as far as we know, little research conducted with the purpose of investigating this relationship. We would therefore like to compare a number of companies and situations in order to distinguish a pattern concerning what elements influence their political risk management and in what way.
Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate why companies manage political risk in a certain way as well as to determine how contextual factors influence the political risk management.
Method: We have investigated and compared the political risk management in ABB, Saab, Scania and Skanska. This has been done through interviews with one political risk manager and one project manager in each company.
Result: The risk management is greatly influenced by various contextual factors, such as the risk attitude of the company and the characteristics of the project.
Kamga, Wafo Guy Léopold. "Political risk and foreign direct investment". [S.l.] : Universität Konstanz , Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften und Statistik, 1998. http://www.bsz-bw.de/cgi-bin/xvms.cgi?SWB8500747.
Pełny tekst źródłaKearns, Ian Paul. "Political risk analysis : a conceptual re-valuation". Thesis, Staffordshire University, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.360355.
Pełny tekst źródłaAl, Khattab Adel. "Political risk assessment in Jordanian international firms". Thesis, University of Huddersfield, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.430297.
Pełny tekst źródłaNwosu, Ikenna E. "Redefining 'political risk' in the 21st century". Thesis, University of Dundee, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.408863.
Pełny tekst źródłaHansen, Carsten. "Examining political risk in service offshoring strategies". Thesis, Cranfield University, 2015. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/10181.
Pełny tekst źródłaStevens, Charles E. "A Legitimacy-Based Approach to Political Risk". The Ohio State University, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1283193445.
Pełny tekst źródłaMuchenga, Isaac. "Political risk management on international construction projects". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20676.
Pełny tekst źródłaPringle, Catherine Mary. "The risk of humanitarianism : industry-specific political-security risk analysis for international agencies in conflict zones". Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/5422.
Pełny tekst źródłaThesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: International agencies are facing heightened levels of security risk in conflict zones. The nature of contemporary conflicts and the post-9/11 global political-security environment have contributed to a situation whereby the threat of attack as well as recurring criminal violence are a constant reality for their employees, hindering their work and obstructing their access to people in need. Moreover, the ability of international agencies to conduct strategic risk assessment has been called into question. The central research question of this study concerns whether an industry-specific political-security risk model can be applied successfully in order to assist international agencies with strategic political-security risk analysis in conflict zones. In order to develop a political-security risk model for international agencies a number of supplementary research questions are asked. The first of these is what limitations the security risk models currently used by international agencies exhibit. The second question asks what factors and indicators should be included in an industry-specific political-security risk model for international agencies in conflict zones. So as to test the applicability of the model developed in this research study, the last question asks what the level of risk is for international agencies operating in the conflict zone in eastern Chad. Using political risk theory, and drawing upon political risk models specific to the energy industry, this research study proposes an industry-specific political-security risk model for international agencies in conflict zones, in which the limitations of the current models used by international agencies to analyse security risks are overcome. The application of this model to eastern Chad returns an overall risk rating of extreme, which is the highest overall risk rating obtainable. By regularly utilising this model, international agencies are able to monitor the changing levels of security risk in a conflict zone and are therefore better placed to make informed strategic decisions when it comes to risk management and risk mitigation.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Internasionale agentskappe trotseer tans verhoogde vlakke van sekuriteitsrisiko in konfliksones. Die aard van hedendaagse konflikte en die post-9/11 globale politieke sekuriteitsomgewing het bygedra tot ’n situasie waar die bedreiging van aanvalle sowel as die herhalende aard van kriminele geweld vir hul werkers ’n voortdurende realiteit is. As gevolg hiervan word werkers verhinder om hul verpligtinge uit te voer en na mense in nood uit te reik. Boonop word internasionale agentskappe se vermoë om strategiese risiko-asessering uit te voer nou bevraagteken. Die hoofnavorsingsvraag van hierdie studie is: kan ’n industrie-spesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel suksesvol toegepas word om internasionale agentskappe by te staan met strategiese politieke sekuriteitsrisiko-analise in konfliksones, al dan nie. Ten einde ’n politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe te ontwikkel, word daar ook ’n aantal aanvullende navorsingsvrae gevra. Die eerste hiervan stel ondersoek in na die beperkings van die sekuriteitsrisikomodelle wat teenswoordig deur internasionale agentskappe gebruik word. Die tweede vraag vra watter faktore en indikators by ’n industriespesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe in konfliksones ingesluit behoort te word. Ten einde die toepaslikheid te toets van die model wat in hierdie studie ontwikkel is, stel die laaste vraag ondersoek in na die risikovlak vir internasionale agentskappe wat in die konfliksone van oostelike Tsjad werksaam is. Met behulp van politieke risikoteorie en met gebruik van politieke risikomodelle wat spesifiek betrekking het tot die energie-industrie, propageer hierdie navorsingstudie ’n industrie-spesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe in konfliksones wat die beperkings van die modelle wat huidig deur internasionale agentskappe gebruik word, sal oorwin. Hierdie model se toepassing op oostelike Tsjad toon in die geheel ’n risikowaarde van ekstreem, die hoogste algehele risikowaarde moontlik. Deur hierdie model gereeld te gebruik sal dit internasionale agentskappe in staat stel om die veranderende vlakke van sekuriteitsrisiko in ’n konfliksone te monitor; dus sal hulle meer ingeligte strategiese besluite kan neem wat betref risikobestuur en – verligting.
Alyatama, Sundus. "A study of managers' political risk perceptions and political risk assessment procedures within Kuwaiti international firms during the 'Arab Spring'". Thesis, Lancaster University, 2016. http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/83254/.
Pełny tekst źródłaHawborn, Dahlstedt Simon. "Political Risk & Earnings Quality : An analysis of political effects on earnings management". Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-387507.
Pełny tekst źródłaAlthaus, Catherine Eileen, i n/a. "Policy Design and the Calculation of Political Risk". Griffith University. Department of Politics and Public Policy, 2005. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20050824.120313.
Pełny tekst źródłaJakobsen, Jo. "Political risk for multinational companies : sources and effects /". Trondheim : Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Social Science and Technology Management, Department of Sociology and Political Science, 2007. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/549678344.pdf.
Pełny tekst źródłaPaiz, Fernando. "Political risk insurance : a solution to capital flight?" Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/67102.
Pełny tekst źródłaDierich, Daniel. "Investigating political risk in the German energy industry". Thesis, University of Gloucestershire, 2013. http://eprints.glos.ac.uk/2094/.
Pełny tekst źródłaMshelia, James Buba. "Political risk assessment by multinational firms in Nigeria". Thesis, University of Huddersfield, 2015. http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/30193/.
Pełny tekst źródłaLinneman, Thomas John. "Political climates, perceptions of risk, and contemporary activisms /". Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/8850.
Pełny tekst źródłaAlthaus, Catherine Eileen. "Policy Design and the Calculation of Political Risk". Thesis, Griffith University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366701.
Pełny tekst źródłaThesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Department of Politics and Public Policy
Griffith Business School
Full Text
Saad, Rami. "How Does Political Instability Affect Market Risk and the Risk Premium in Israel". Thesis, Umeå universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet (USBE), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-54388.
Pełny tekst źródłaKhan, Saad Ullah. "Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach". Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2014. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/79325/1/Saad_Khan_Thesis.pdf.
Pełny tekst źródłaBischoff, Emil Gottfried. "Regional political risk analysis: The conflict in the Niger Delta and its impact on the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea". Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/4138.
Pełny tekst źródłaENGLISH ABSTRACT: Nigeria’s ability to play a regional stabilizing role in the Gulf of Guinea is severely thwarted due to unresolved conflict in the Niger Delta. Stemming from agitation by local communities, it evolved from peaceful rallies into an armed insurgency with the youth as the vanguard, and the conflict has subsequently spread into neighbouring countries like Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Benin. The aim of this study was to analyse the conflict in the Niger Delta, southern Nigeria in order to assess its impact on the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea. Taking the form of a political risk analysis, a means of forecasting potential pitfalls for an investing client to mitigate or manage risk, the study postulated that a country specific risk analysis would not be sufficient to analyse an integrated system like the Gulf of Guinea. Many scholars have suggested that regional analysis has become more important than national. In the context of Africa contagion effects, the spill over, positive as well as negative from one country to another, casts doubt on the value of assessing only a country specific risk analysis. Taking this phenomenon into account, a regional risk index was created in order to assess the regional implications of the conflict in the Niger Delta. The index consists of six variables chosen from four political risk frameworks, namely the Economist Intelligence Unit, the Business Environment Risk Intelligence, The Brink Model, and finally the International Country Risk Guide. The variables were chosen on their utility for regional political risk analysis and their status as major risk variables, universal risk variables employed by various risk frameworks. In the subsequent political risk analysis, the first four variables were rated as having a high risk while the latter two garnered a medium risk rating. As such the overall rating for the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea was found to be high. This study finds that conventional country specific risk models are still very much the preferred means of analysing risk, but that regional risk analysis would have to take a larger role in political risk analysis in the future.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Nigerië se vermoë om ‘n streeks-stabiliserende rol in die Golf van Guinea te speel, word ernstig gedwarsboom deur die onopgeloste konflik in die Niger Delta. Die oorsprong van die konflik in vreedsame gemeenskaplike protestaksie vir meer regverdige verdeling van olie inkomste het uitgekring na gewapende konflik, beide in die Delta self en in buurlande Kameroen, Ekwatoriale Guinee en Benin. Hierdie studie het gepoog om die konflik in die Nigeriese Delta te bestudeer om die impak van politieke risiko op die Golf van Guinea te assesseer. Die studie het die vorm van ‘n politieke risiko analise aangeneem, ‘n middel van vooruitskatting om potensiële valstrikke aan ‘n kliënt wat wil belê uit te wys om sodoende konflik te verlig of te beheer. Die studie veronderstel dat ‘n landspesifieke konflik analise onvoldoende is om ‘n geïntegreerde sisteem soos die Golf van Guinea te analiseer. Met menige akademici wat voorstel dat streeksanalise belangriker geword het as die nasionale, word daar in die konteks van die gevolge van Afrika-besmetting, die oorloop daarvan van een land na ‘n ander, positief sowel as negatief, ‘n skaduwee gegooi op die waarde van die assessering van slegs ‘n landspesifieke konflik analise. Met hierdie fenomeen in gedagte, is ‘n streek risiko inhoud geskep om die implikasies vir die konflik in die Niger Deltastreek, te assesseer. Die inhoud is saamgestel uit ‘n verskeidenheid van ses variante gekies uit vier politieke risiko raamwerke, nl die ‘Ekonomist Intelligence Unit’, die ‘Business Environment Risk Intelligence’, die ‘Brink Model’ en ook die ‘International Country Risk Guide’. Die variante is gebruik vir hulle waarde vir streekspolitieke risiko analise, asook die belangrikheid van hulle hoof risiko veranderlikheid, ‘n universele Hoof risiko variant wat gebruik word in verskillende risiko raamwerke. In die gevolglike politieke risiko-analise, is die vier variante beskou as ‘n baie hoë risiko, terwyl die laaste twee as medium risiko beskou word. Dus is die algemene taksering vir die politiese risiko in die Golf van Guinea baie hoog. Die studie vind uiteindelik dat lande se spesifieke risiko modelle steeds die verkose manier is om risiko’s te analiseer, alhoewel politieke risiko analise ‘n groter rol sal speel in toekomstige streek risiko analise.
Livas, Elizondo Raul Alejandro. "Essays on regional economics and political risk in Mexico". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/12702.
Pełny tekst źródłaHaddar, Marwa. "Essays on firm-level political risk and corporate finance". Thesis, Paris Est, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022PESC0011.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe world is now changing with lightening speed. The greatest of those changes are occurring in the political and technological spheres. Geopolitical shifts have brought politics and business closer together. Political upheavals are incessantly reshaping the circumstances in which individuals, societies, and companies operate, which doesn't make markets in total isolation from politics. Politics molds and constrains markets through its rules, norms, and institutions. Trade regimes, sanctions, and national laws, for instance, shape businesses' environment. Tumultuous reverses, such as wars and revolutions, and other minor events, such as social activism and cyber threats, still take firms by surprise. Therefore, firms are forced to plan and act beyond their immediate environment. The meaning of political risk has changed. A few decades ago, political risk could be summarized in governmental actions, such as industry-related regulations or assets seizing in dictatorships. Today, however, governments are no longer the only arbiter. The twenty-first-century political risk has a broader and more complicated meaning. A civil war in Syria results in a refugee crisis in Europe. An anti-Chinese protest in Vietnam fuels stock-outs in the clothing industry in America. Rice and Zegart (2018) define the twenty-first-century political risk as “the probability that a political action could affect a company in significant ways.” Put in the most elemental terms, political actions emphasize the growing impact of risk generators outside army barracks and party headquarters. In today's competitive markets, firms need to consider all risks engendered by the widening array of global political actors, journalists, social activists, documentary filmmakers, etc. Historically, revolutions, nationalization, seizure of assets were the political risk chorus. However, for the modern-day global firms consider this risk on much more and more aspects. Thus, companies, and particularly international firms see the market as a global place and they plan their strategies accordingly. SeaWorld story, among many others, points out that firms can be dramatically blindsided by political actions of small groups of people and the power of individuals charged by connective technologies. The twenty-first-century political environment is an important external factor of uncertainty for firms. It can, therefore, constrain or foster their growth opportunities and survival. This thesis addresses the relationship between the modern-day politics and corporate financial decisions. So far, prior research studies have only focused on country-level and sector-level measures of political risk in the absence of direct ones. This dissertation, instead, traces through the ways in which political risk can affect U.S. firms' behaviour, using a new firm-level proxy to measure the risk. My dissertation is a three-paper compilation of studies related to political risk and corporate finance. In my first paper, I examine the effect of firm-level political risk on corporate cash holdings and cash management. The second paper investigates whether firm-level political risk affects trade credit provision. Finally, the third paper tackles the issues in measurement of political risk and examines the effect of the novel political risk measure on corporate investment and financing decisions
Dal, Aysenur Dal. "A Norm-Affect-Risk Model of Online Political Expression". The Ohio State University, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1531129886207416.
Pełny tekst źródłaKellow, A. "Research into market measures of political risk and risk diversification as a motive direct investment". Thesis, University of Manchester, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.377747.
Pełny tekst źródłaGarcia, Anna Valentina Troeng. "The (non)-impact of democracy on levels of political risk. An evaluation of the relationship between levels of democracy and the political risk facing the oil and gas industry in Angola". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/96002.
Pełny tekst źródłaENGLISH ABSTRACT: In a world where emerging markets are increasingly driving the world’s economic growth, and an increasing part of the world’s energy supply comes from politically unstable or undemocratic countries with less developed institutions and inadequate rule of law, the field of political risk has acquired especially great significance. In order to keep up with international and domestic demand, as well as maintain profit levels, there has been and will continue to be a search for new sources of petroleum reserves. This has pushed the extractive industries to invest in new territories, some of which pose potential risks for new investments. These trends are changing where and how oil and gas companies conduct their business, as many of the political risks that face the extractive industries stem from the political, institutional and structural framework of the host country. The core of this study has been the investigation of the assumption that high levels of democracy constitute low levels of political risk. The assumption that high levels of democracy constitute low levels of political risk implies, conversely, that low levels of democracy constitute high levels of political risk. The debate around this assumption is an essential part of this research study; its validity was tested through conducting an industry-specific political risk analysis, using the case of Statoil’s operations in Angola. Angola poses an interesting case for analyzing political risk in the oil and gas sector, as it exhibits many of the qualities that are found amongst these “new” actors in the oil industry. Furthermore, additional and new research on the risk of investing in these emerging markets is more relevant than ever before. The stipulation of the relevance of this research study is based on the following two main points: firstly, the general decline in the level of democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa; secondly, the fact that many of the current oil and gas resources are located in these very areas, i.e. in undemocratic and unstable countries. Moreover, there is little research on the effects the level of democracy has on the industry-specific risk, in this case the oil and gas industry. Hence further research on this area is both relevant and necessary. The political risk analysis shows that the political risks that face Statoil in the undemocratic nation of Angola are in fact not high. The analysis concludes with a result that indicates that investment in Angola poses a medium level of political risk. This challenges the abovementioned assumption, as the political risks are not necessarily higher in an undemocratic country. This study finds that the political risk associated with Angola is in the short- to mid-term seen as stable and medium; however, there are simmering tendencies and trends that currently point to a different long-term political risk picture.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In ‘n wêreld waar opkomende markte die ekonomiese groei van die wêreld toenemend voortdryf en ‘n toenemende deel van die wêreld se energie voorraad van politiese onstabiele of ondemokratiese lande met minder ontwikkelde instellings en onvoldoende regering kom, het die veld van politieke risiko groot waarde gekry. Om by te hou by die internasionale en plaaslike vraag, sowel as om winsvlakke te handhaaf, is en sal daar altyd ‘n soektog na nuwe bronne van petroleum reserwes wees. Dit het die ekstraksie industrieë gedruk om in nuwe gebiede te belê waarvan sommiges potensiële risiko’s het vir nuwe beleggings. Hierdie neigings verander waar en hoe olie- en petrolmaatskappye hul besigheid doen omdat baie van die politieke risiko’s wat die ekstraksie industrieë moet hanteer voortvloei uit die politieke, institusionele en strukturele raamwerk van die gasheerland. Die kern van hierdie studie was die ondersoek van die aanname dat hoë vlakke van demokrasie aanleiding gee tot lae vlakke van politieke risiko. Die aanname dat hoë vlakke van demokrasie aanleiding gee tot hae vlakke van politieke risiko impliseer dat lae vlakke van demokrasie aanleiding gee tot hoë vlakke van politieke risiko. Die debat rondom hierdie aanname is ‘n noodsaaklike deel van hierdie navorsingstudie; die geldigheid daarvan is getoets deur die uitvoering van ‘n industrie-spesifieke politieke risiko analise, deur gebruik te maak van die geval van Statoil se operering in Angola. Angola is ‘n interessante geval vir die ontleding van politieke risiko in die olie en petrolsektor, omdat dit baie van die kwaliteite toon wat onder die “nuwe” rolspelers in die olie-industrie gevind word. Verder is bykomende en nuwe navorsing op die risiko van belegging in hierdie opkomende markte meer relevant. Die stipulasie van hierdie relevansie van hierdie navorsingstudie is gebaseer op die volgende twee punte: eerstens, die algemene afname in die vlak van demokrasie in Sub-Sahara Afrika; tweedens, die feit dat baie van die huidige olie en petrolbronne in hierdie areas geleë is, d.i in ondemokratiese en onstabiele lande. Daar is ook min navorsing oor die uitwerking wat demokrasie het op die industrie-spesifieke risiko, in hierdie geval die olie en petroleum industrie. Daarom is verdere navorsing in hierdie area beide relevant en noodsaaklik. Die politieke risiko ontleding wys dat die politieke risikos wat Statoil in die gesig staar in die ondemokrastiese nasie van Angola nie hoog is nie. Die ontleding sluit af met ‘n gevolgtrekking wat toon dat belegging in Angola ‘n medium vlak van politieke risiko toon. Dit daag die bogenoemde aanname uit, omdat die politieke risiko’s nie noodwendig hoog is in ‘n ondemokratiese land nie. Hierdie studie vind dat die politieke risiko wat met Angola geassosieer word in die kort tot middel termyn is en as stabiel en medium beskou word; daar is egter neigings wat dui op ‘n ander langtermyn politieke risiko prent.
Intscher, Nicholas. "The fragmentation of political risk and MNCs' supply chain linkages". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2020. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128635.
Pełny tekst źródłaCataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 260-279).
Political science research devotes considerable attention to the impact of political risk on multinational companies' (MNCs') behavior. However, this body of research suffers from two main oversights: (1) a disproportionate focus on MNCs' investment decisions, and (2) an assumption that political risk takes a common, centralized form across countries. In this dissertation, I redirect, attention to the political determinants of MNCs' supply chain linkages. I argue that these linkages represent a risk-mitigating strategy for MNCs, and one that is particularly well suited for dealing with environments where the sources of political risk are spread throughout the state apparatus -- which I refer to as fragmented political risk. To test this theory, I draw on both cross-sectional survey data of MNCs in Sub-Saharan Africa and firm-level panel data from Indonesia -- a country that experienced a profound fragmentation in the structure of political risk. The principal finding of this research is that fragmented political risk causes MNCs to increase their use of local suppliers, with particularly strong effects among those that are (1) more vulnerable to political risk, and (2) have a greater capacity to adopt linkages, in general. These findings qualify research on the political determinants of FDI by showing that MNCs, and not merely states, are capable of resolving political risk in the host country.
by Nicholas Intscher.
Ph. D.
Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science
Rasaei, Janet, i Kim Nguyen. "Political Risk in Multinational Corporations’ Capital Structure : Evidence from Singapore". Thesis, Umeå universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-45273.
Pełny tekst źródłaLel, Ugur. "Political risk in Quebec, firm valuation, and business relocation announcements". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0004/MQ43642.pdf.
Pełny tekst źródłaSurkova, Marina. "Assessing political risk of portfolio investment in the Russian economy". Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.275387.
Pełny tekst źródłaGARDINER, Gabriel James. "Political risk in emerging Markets During na Era of Globalization". Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 2016. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/18712.
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OEA- Organização dos Estados Americanos
This dissertation attempts to analyze the concept of political risk, its evolution and application both within the academic and market setting. An endeavor to contribute to the quantification of the political risk field is made via econometric modeling. Overall, 6 different indicators for political risk are employed in the empirical analysis. The results show that political risk is a highly significant determinant to foreign investment inflows on emerging market countries. Though political risk is a phenomenon that is present in all countries both highly industrialized and still developing, this study is focused on the emerging market economy. Due to the rise in importance of the emerging market within the global economy, special emphasis is dedicated towards the new capitalist tools developed by the administrators of the emerging market economy.
Esta dissertação tenta analisar o conceito de risco político, sua evolução e aplicação tanto acadêmica quanto mercadológica. Com um modelo econométrico, pretende-se contribuir para a quantificação no campo do risco político. O trabalho emprega seis indicadores diferentes de risco político. Os resultados mostram que o risco político é um determinante altamente significativo do fluxo de investimento estrangeiro direto nos países de mercado emergente. Embora o risco político seja um fenômeno presente em todos os países, altamente industrializados e também nos ainda em desenvolvimento, este estudo se foca nas economias de mercado emergentes. Devido à crescente importância dos mercados emergentes na economia global, ênfase especial é dedicada aos novos instrumentos capitalistas (fundo soberano, empresa estatal e campeão nacional) desenvolvidos por administradores de economias de mercado emergente.
Jaffard, Pierre(Pierre J. ). "Lobbying as a hedge on political risk : when size matters". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2020. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126971.
Pełny tekst źródłaCataloged from the official PDF of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 51-53).
I develop a three-period asset pricing model with heterogeneity in firms size and a government that introduces a policy distortion. I find that large firms can better hedge the political uncertainty associated with this policy change through lobbying, which leads them to earn lower expected returns. I provide two strands of empirical evidence consistent with the model predictions. The first one looks at the behavior of a blue versus red industries around the unexpected results of the 2016 US Presidential election. The second one uses portfolio sorting and double-sorting to reach consistent conclusions.
by Pierre Jaffard.
S.M. in Management Research
S.M.inManagementResearch Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management
Boettcher, William A. "Prudence or peril : presidential risk behavior in foreign policy /". The Ohio State University, 1997. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1487947908403168.
Pełny tekst źródłaTibrewala, Aarushi. "Risk and Returns: The Impact of Political Risk on Financial Returns in Emerging and Developed Markets". Scholarship @ Claremont, 2018. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1903.
Pełny tekst źródłaMyers, Brett W. "Effects of the political process on financial topics". Diss., Restricted to subscribing institutions, 2007. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1495960301&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=1564&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
Pełny tekst źródłaBlomquist, Lars Borge. "Political-security risk in the oil and gas industry : the impact of terrorism on risk management and mitigation". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/96673.
Pełny tekst źródłaENGLISH ABSTRACT: International oil and gas companies are experiencing an increase in terrorist attacks. After the oil and gas industry became a legitimate target for terrorist groups in the 1990s the number of attacks have increased yearly, with a spike after the 9/11 attacks. In today’s interconnected world political risk is not only about the relationship between the host government and the company. Oil and gas companies may experience risks on a transnational, national and human security level. Because of this, the success of new investments often depends on the successful utilization of risk management strategies. This research study focuses on the importance of political-security risk in the oil and gas industry. This is a risk-management tool to be used before and during international operations; it enables companies to be better prepared to deal with risks that may arise. In January 2013 the oil and gas industry experienced one of its deadliest attacks. The In Amenas gas facility in Algeria was attack by terrorists and in a four-day siege 40 people lost their lives. This forced the oil and gas industry to reconsider its focus on security management. As one of the contractors at the facility, Statoil undertook a thorough analysis of security at the site as well as of the company´s corporate security risk management. The report revealed a lack of focus on political-security risk. Accordingly, the main research question in this study concerns the effect of terrorism on politicalsecurity risk in the oil and gas industry; it specifically analyzes the In Amenas attack. The aim of this study is to answer this question along with two sub-questions, which complement and support the main research question. The first sub-question concerns the factors that contributed to the attack in In Amenas: why was risk mitigation not successful? The second sub-question looks at the possibilities for international oil and gas companies to mitigate the risk of terrorism; or is this a risk that can only be managed? This study argues that political-security risk has not been used to its full potential in the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas industry has always focused on site security, but a broader more holistic approach to risk management has been lacking. However, as a result of the In Amenas incident, the industry has become more willing to have a new discussion on security and this has resulted in small changes in the way companies operate.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Internasionale olie- en gasmaatskappye ondervind ‘n toename in terreur aanvalle. Nadat die olie en gasindustrie ‘n wettige teiken vir tereurgroepe in die 1990s geword het, het die aantal aanvalle per jaar toegeneem, met ‘n skerp styging na die 9/11 aanvalle. In vandag se onderling verbonde wêreld hou die politiese risiko nie net verband met die verhouding tussen die gasregering en die maatskappy nie. Olie- en gasmaatskappye mag risiko’s op trans-nasionale, nasionale en menslike sekuriteitsvlak ervaar. As gevolg hiervan maak die sukses van nuwe beleggings dikwels staat op die suksesvolle gebruik van risiko-bestuur strategieë. Hierdie navorsingstudie fokus op die belang van ‘n politiese veiligheidsrisiko in die olie en gasindustrie. Hierdie is ‘n risiko-bestuur gereedskap wat gebruik sal word voor en tydens internasionale operasies; dit stel die maatskappye in staat om beter voorbereid te wees om die risiko’s wat mag voorkom te hanteer. In Januarie 2013 het die olie en gasindustrie een van die dodelikste aanvalle beleef. Die In Amenas olie-aanleg in Algerië is deur terroriste aangeval en tydens ‘n 4 dae lange inval het 40 mense hul lewens verloor. Dit het die olie en gasindustrie gedwing om hul fokus op veiligheidsbestuur te heroorweeg. As een van die kontrakteur by die aanleg het Statoil ‘n deeglike ontleding van die sekuriteit by die plek sowel as die maatskappy se korporatiewe veiligheid risikobestuur onderneem. Die verslag het ‘n gebrek aan fokus op die politiese veiligheidsrisiko getoon. Die hoof navorsingsvraag in hierdie studie het betrekking op die effek van terreur op politiese veiligheidsrisiko in die olie- en gasindustrie; dit ontleed spesifiek die In Amenas aanval. Die doel van hierdie studie is om hierdie vraag tesame met twee sub-vrae wat die hoof navorsingsvraag komplimenteer en ondersteun. Die eerste sub-vraag het betrekking op die faktore wat bygedra het tot die aanval in In Amenas: hoekom was risiko mitigasie onsuksesvol? Die tweede sub-vraag kyk na die moontlikhede vir internasionale olie- en gasmaatskappye om die risiko van terreur te versag; of is hierdie ‘n risiko wat slegs bestuur kan word? Hierdie studie argumeneer dat politiese veiligheidsrisiko nie tot sy volle potensiaal in die olie en gasindustrie gebruik is nie. Die olie en gasindustrie het altyd gefokus op die veiligheid van die plek, maar ‘n breër holistiese benadering tot risiko-bestuur het ontbreek. As gevolg van die In Amenas insident, het die industrie meer gewillig geword om ‘n nuwe bespreking oor veiligheid te hê en dit het klein veranderinge in die manier waarop maatskappye opereer tot gevolg gehad.
Stoddard, Edward James Armstrong. "European upstream energy cooperation : political risk, milieu-shaping and politico-commercial relations in the Caspian Sea region". Thesis, University of Portsmouth, 2013. https://researchportal.port.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/european-upstream-energy-cooperation(d586315c-29bc-481b-a07f-80a2e76ebb89).html.
Pełny tekst źródłaHoward, Christopher O. "Approaches to the problems of political risk in foreign direct investment". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/18270.
Pełny tekst źródłaPutten, Frans-Paul van der. "Corporate behaviour and political risk : Dutch companies in China, 1903-1941 /". Leiden : Leiden University, 2001. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb38869445b.
Pełny tekst źródłaGupta, Rishab. "The relationship between political risk insurance policies and international investment agreements". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2018. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:31cb5b45-bd63-45f2-a62d-2d869ab05dbf.
Pełny tekst źródłaMoreira, Filho Omar Penna. "Determinants for political risk insurance of direct investments in emerging markets". reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/9552.
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Esta dissertação analisa os principais determinantes para investidores contratarem seguro de proteção de riscos políticos (PRI) para seus investimentos diretos, assim com o racional de sair de um PRI não renovando suas políticas. Esta dissertação contribui para a literatura existente sobre PRI, investigando os principais motivadores para PRI, tais como, riscos políticos, riscos econômicos, capacidade do patrocinador, instrumento utilizado para realizar o investimento (horizonte do investimento) determina combinações de PRI utilizando um modelo binário de resposta não linear. Um banco de dados único da Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) no período de 1990 até 2010, contendo informações sobre 693 investimentos incluindo sua cobertura para: seguro de risco de conversibilidade, seguro para risco de expropriação, riscos de guerras e distúrbios civis e riscos de quebra de contrato. Entretanto, percebemos que 47% destes seguros não permanecem ativos até o prazo originalmente contratado. Adicionalmente, instituições financeiras como garantidoras utilizam proporcionalmente mais dívida do que capital como instrumento de investimento e são largamente seguradas dentro da União Européia (EU). Por outro lado, investidores nos BRICs tendem a cobrir primariamente seus investimentos em infraestrutura. Resultados empíricos incluem que um aumento nos riscos de quebra de contrato e guerra civil estão totalmente correlacionados com a renovação de contratos de seguro, assim como um aumento da percepção de risco do pais que está recebendo o investimento.
Andrews, Richard Quentin Dunkley. "The identification and measurement of political risk : toward a firm-centric approach". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15948.
Pełny tekst źródłaPolitical risk analysis is the study of economic and social discontinuities and changes which result in speculative constraints and opportunities for transnational business. This paper explores the problem of establishing definitional congruity at conceptual and operational levels of analysis and recommends the adoption of firm-centric approaches to assessing risk originating in the political environment. Conclusions are arrived at by means of partial induction, based on a rigorous comparative examination of a comprehensive body of literature. The first section delineates various fiduciary frameworks, historical and definitional issues, covering the foundational concepts of certainty, uncertainty, chance and risk. Current definitions of political risk are compended, and a new definition is suggested, compatible with the day-to-day operations of globalised firms. Models and methods for the measurement and identification of political risk are reviewed in the second part of the paper. Conceptual and operational incongruencies are investigated from a perspective which aims at establishing the need for a firm-specific conceptual schematicisation of political risk. Approaches based on aggregation by macro or micro distinction are rejected in favour of the proposed conceptual model. Finally, the remaining part of the paper considers current and past models which place the firm at the centre of the analytical procedure. An abstract model of the firm is described for the purpose of including constraints on business interests, norms, rules, practices and procedures, profitability and other goals. Some empirical data is discussed with a view to confirming the necessity for adopting firm-centric approaches. The conclusion recommends further research in the form of empirical case studies which consider risk in relation to the individual firm.
van, Taack William. "Socioeconomic risk and the class-basis of reasoning during market transitions". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2016. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:bf708266-82bc-4dce-bee3-b8c6234a412f.
Pełny tekst źródłaPhillips, Lauren M. "Political risk in emerging market economies : democratic politics, sovereign debt and financial market volatility in Brazil and Mexico". Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2006. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1956/.
Pełny tekst źródłaDuncan, Stewart M. "Political risk analysis and economic reform : investing in the Indian electricity sector". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/49776.
Pełny tekst źródłaENGLISH ABSTRACT: The definition of political risk and the methodology of its assessment have changed since the inception of the discipline midway through the last century. This assignment assesses the usefulness of a new quantitative technique that uses political constraints and the policy preferences of political actors to construct a measure of political risk. Integrating the findings of the resulting Political Constraints Index with an analysis of the political economy of the Indian Electricity Sector, the assignment demonstrates that, contrary to the original interpretations of the index, high levels of political constraints and political competition may propagate a disabling policy regime and be detrimental to the investor, despite the stated commitment of the incumbent government to policy reform. The implication of these findings is that, to avoid incorrect interpretation, the Political Constraint Index should be augmented by a comprehensive qualitative assessment of the industry in question.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die definisie van politieke risiko en die metodologie om dit te ontleed, het verander sedert die onstaan van hierdie dissipline gedurende die middel van die laaste eeu. Hierdie opdrag ontleed die nuttigheid van 'n nuwe kwantitatiewe tegniek wat die politieke beperkings en beleidsvoorkeure van politieke rolspelers gebruik om 'n maatstaf van politieke risiko te verskaf. Die opdrag se integrasie van die bevindinge van die resulterende Politieke Beperkings Indeks met 'n analise van die politieke ekonomie van die Indiese Elektrisiteits Sektor bewys dat, teenstrydig met oorspronklike interpretasies van die indeks, hoe vlakke van politieke beperkings en politieke kompetisie 'n deaktiveringsbeleid regime kan kweek wat nadelig is vir die belegger, ten spyte van die huidige regering se verklaarde toegewydheid tot beleidshervorming. Die implikasie van hierdie bevindinge is dat, om foutiewe interpretasie te vermy, die Politieke Beperkings Indeks verbeter moet word deur 'n omvattende kwalitatiewe ontleding van die verlangde industrie.
Tan, Bin. "Growth, financial development, market liquidity and risk". Thesis, Brunel University, 2010. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/8205.
Pełny tekst źródła